PBS NewsHour; November 1, 2016 6:00pm-7:01pm PDT

Captioning sponsored by NEWSHOUR PRODUCTIONS, LLC

>> Woodruff: GOOD EVENING, I'M JUDY WOODRUFF. ON THE NEWSHOUR TONIGHT, ONLY ONE WEEK BEFORE ELECTION DAY. DONALD TRUMP CAMPAIGNS IN PENNSYLVANIA, WHERE HIS POLL NUMBERS ARE LAGGING, WHILE HILLARY CLINTON PUSHES FOR EARLY VOTING IN FLORIDA. THEN, A REPORT FROM THE FRONT LINES IN IRAQ, WHERE THE BATTLE WITH ISIS FIGHTERS GROWS FIERCE AS GOVERNMENT TROOPS CLOSE IN ON THE KEY CITY OF MOSUL. pCAR BILINGUAL EDUCATION CHALLENGES IDEAS ON THE BEST WAY TO TEACH KIDS.

>> WE ARE BLESSED WITH THIS RICHNESS OF LANGUAGES AND TO NOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT, TO NOT LET OUR KIDS HAVE THAT OPPORTUNITY, SEEMS TO BE JUST A TREMENDOUS WASTE

>> BILINGUAL EDUCATION DOESN'T WORK NOW, IT'S NEVER WORKED IN THE PAST AND DESPITE ITS ADVOCATES EXTREMISM IDEOLOGICAL COMMITMENT TO THAT POLICY, IT'S JUST TOTALLY UNSUCCESSFUL.

>> Woodruff: ALL THAT AND MORE ON TONIGHT'S PBS NEWSHOUR.

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>> Woodruff: WE'RE DOWN TO THE LAST SEVEN DAYS, AND SOME POLLS ARE TIGHTENING IN THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. WITH THAT IN MIND, THE TWO MAJOR CANDIDATES HIT EACH OTHER HARD TODAY, ON POLICY AND MORALITY. LISA DESJARDINS BEGINS OUR COVERAGE.

>> Reporter: ONE WEEK TO GO. THREE NEW ELEMENTS TODAY, IN PENNSYLVANIA, TO THE LOOK AND FEEL OF DONALD TRUMP'S SPRINT TO ELECTION DAY. HIS RUNNING MATE MIKE PENCE WAS THERE... CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORTERS WERE THERE... AND HIS ADDRESS WAS ALL POLICY, ESPECIALLY HEALTH CARE, AS HE POUNDED AWAY AT OBAMACARE AND ITS RISING COSTS.

>> WHEN WE WIN ON NOVEMBER 8, AND ELECT A REPUBLICAN CONGRESS, WE WILL BE ABLE, IMMEDIATELY BE ABLE TO REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMACARE. HAVE TO DO IT. I WILL ASK CONGRESS TO CONVENE A SPECIAL SESSION SO WE CAN REPEAL AND REPLACE.

>> Reporter: TRUMP'S KEYSTONE STATE VISIT IS PART OF A FINAL WEEK PUSH IN STATES THAT VOTED TWICE FOR BARACK OBAMA, INCLUDING WISCONSIN, WHERE HE IS TONIGHT. AND THE CAMPAIGN JUST ANNOUNCED NEW AD BUYS IN USUALLY DARK BLUE MICHIGAN, AND IN NEW MEXICO, WHICH MAY BE A LATE SWING STATE. HILLARY CLINTON IS ALSO AIRING NEW ADS IN BOTH THOSE STATES, AND SHE'S GETTING BACK ON THE AIR IN COLORADO, WHERE SHE HAD NOT ADVERTISED SINCE JULY. TODAY, SHE WAS EAST, IN FLORIDA: THE BIGGEST ELECTORAL JEWEL OF ALL THE BATTLEGROUNDS. AND HER FOCUS: TRUMP'S CHARACTER. SHE STUMPED WITH A FORMER "MISS UNIVERSE," ALICIA MACHADO, WHO SAYS TRUMP BERATED HER FOR HER WEIGHT.

>> HE THINKS BELITTLING WOMEN MAKES HIM A BIGGER MAN.

>> Reporter: AND CLINTON'S CAMPAIGN COUPLED THAT WITH A NEW ANTI-TRUMP TV AD.

>> SHE ATE LIKE A PIG. A PERSON WHO'S FLAT-CHESTED IS VERY HARD TO BE A 10.

>> SO YOU TREAT WOMEN WITH RESPECT?

>> UHHH, I CAN'T SAY THAT EITHER.

>> Reporter: ALL THIS, AS A FLURRY OF NEW HEADLINES SWIRLED AROUND THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. "THE NEW YORK TIMES" REPORTED TRUMP, BACK IN THE 1990s, USED A TAX SCHEME THAT HIS OWN LAWYERS QUESTIONED, TO SAVE TENS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS. NBC NEWS REPORTED THE F.B.I. IS CONDUCTING A PRELIMINARY INQUIRY INTO PAUL MANAFORT, THE FORMER TRUMP CAMPAIGN CHAIR, AND HIS FOREIGN BUSINESS CONNECTIONS. HE WAS OUSTED FROM THE CAMPAIGN IN AUGUST, OVER AMID POSSIBLE TIES TO RUSSIA. AND CNBC WAS FIRST TO REPORT THAT F.B.I. DIRECTOR JAMES COMEY HAD ARGUED AGAINST NAMING RUSSIA AS THE PRIME SUSPECT IN POLITICAL HACKING. HE ARGUED IT WAS TOO CLOSE TO THE ELECTION. CLINTON'S CAMPAIGN CALLED THAT A DOUBLE STANDARD, GIVEN THAT COMEY LAST WEEK REVEALED AN INVESTIGATION INTO MORE EMAILS RELATED TO HER USE OF A PRIVATE SERVER. OVERALL, A WILD PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST IS ENDING WITH A STORM OF NEWS AND BATTLEGROUND CAMPAIGNING. FOR THE PBS NEWSHOUR, I'M LISA DESJARDINS.

>> Woodruff: IN THE DAY'S OTHER NEWS, IRAQI TROOPS BATTLED TO MAKE HEADWAY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF MOSUL, TWO YEARS AFTER BEING DRIVEN OUT. THE MILITARY SAID SPECIAL FORCES ADVANCED AND TOOK A STATE TELEVISION BUILDING, DESPITE FIERCE RESISTANCE FROM ISLAMIC STATE FIGHTERS. WE'LL GET A REPORT FROM THE FRONTLINES, LATER IN THE PROGRAM. IN PAKISTAN, THE OPPOSITION LEADER, IMRAN KHAN, BACKED OFF TODAY FROM HIS CALL FOR MASS PROTESTS IN ISLAMABAD. THE DEMONSTRATIONS WERE MEANT TO LOCK DOWN THE CAPITAL, AND FORCE EMBATTLED PRIME MINISTER NAWAZ SHARIF TO RESIGN. HE'S UNDER FIRE OVER HIS FAMILY'S OFFSHORE BANK HOLDINGS. SUPPORTERS RALLIED AT KHAN'S HOME TODAY AFTER PAKISTAN'S HIGHEST COURT SAID IT'LL LOOK INTO SHARIF'S FINANCES.

>> ( translated ): TODAY, I WAS OVERJOYED THAT THE SUPREME COURT DECIDED THAT FROM DAY AFTER TOMORROW, NAWAZ SHARIF'S ACCOUNTABILITY WILL SOON BEGIN! WE HAVE DECIDED THAT TOMORROW WE WILL THANK GOD AND CELEBRATE A DAY OF THANKS AT ISLAMABAD'S PARADE GROUND. TOMORROW, GOD WILLING, WE WILL GATHER A MILLION PEOPLE.

>> Woodruff: IN RECENT DAYS, POLICE HAVE USED BATONS AND TEAR GAS TO ENFORCE A BAN ON RALLIES IN ISLAMABAD. THE GOVERNMENT OF TURKEY TODAY REJECTED CRITICISM FROM EUROPE OVER ITS CRACKDOWN ON AN OPPOSITION NEWSPAPER. POLICE ARRESTED 13 TOP STAFFERS OF THE PAPER YESTERDAY, AND THE U.S. AND THE EUROPEAN UNION CONDEMNED THE MOVE. TODAY, THE NEWSPAPER RAN A DEFIANT HEADLINE: "WE WILL NOT SURRENDER." BUT THE TURKISH PRIME MINISTER SHRUGGED IT ALL OFF, IN A TELEVISED ADDRESS.

>> ( translated ): TODAY, SOMEBODY FROM THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT SAYS THE DETENTION OF JOURNALISTS FROM THAT NEWSPAPER IS A RED LINE. BROTHER, WE DON'T CARE ABOUT YOUR RED LINE. IT'S THE PEOPLE WHO DRAW THE RED LINE. WHAT IMPORTANCE DOES YOUR LINE HAVE?

>> Woodruff: THE PAPER REJECTS GOVERNMENT CLAIMS THAT ITS EMPLOYEES WERE "SUPPORTING TERROR" DURING LAST SUMMER'S COUP ATTEMPT. BACK IN THIS COUNTRY, PHILADELPHIA'S PUBLIC TRANSIT WORKERS WENT ON STRIKE AFTER FAILING TO REACH A CONTRACT DEAL. THAT BROUGHT BUS, TROLLEY, AND SUBWAY SERVICE TO A HALT, AFFECTING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF RIDERS. WORKERS TOOK TO THE PICKET LINES TO DEMAND BETTER PENSIONS, HEALTH CARE AND SHIFT SCHEDULING. NO NEW TALKS HAVE BEEN SCHEDULED. AND ON WALL STREET, STOCKS SLIPPED OVER DISAPPOINTING EARNINGS AND CONCERNS ABOUT THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE. THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE LOST 105 POINTS TO CLOSE AT 18,037. THE NASDAQ FELL 35 POINTS, AND THE S&P 500 SLID 14. STILL TO COME ON THE NEWSHOUR, WHAT WE STILL DON'T KNOW ABOUT THE CANDIDATES ONE WEEK BEFORE ELECTION DAY. IRAQI FORCES PUSH INTO THE ISIS- HELD CITY OF MOSUL. THE DEBATE OVER PROVIDING BILINGUAL EDUCATION IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS, AND MUCH MORE.

>> Woodruff: WE RETURN NOW TO THE RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE. IT'S NOVEMBER 1, AND VOTERS WHO HAVEN'T ALREADY MADE A FIRM DECISION ABOUT WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO DO, OR EVEN IF THEY'RE GOING TO SHOW UP AT THE POLLS, MAY BE LOOKING AROUND FOR NEW INFORMATION. MEANWHILE, NEW REPORTS HAVE RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT DONALD TRUMP'S TIES TO RUSSIA AND HIS BUSINESS DEALINGS. AND OF COURSE, HILLARY CLINTON'S EMAIL CONTROVERSY CONTINUES TO UNFOLD. WHICH RAISES THE QUESTION: WHAT IS KNOWN AND WHAT ISN'T, ABOUT BOTH CANDIDATES? AND EVEN IF WE LEARN MORE NOW, WILL IT MAKE A DIFFERENCE? WE'RE JOINED BY SUSAN PAGE, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF FOR "USA TODAY." AND KAREN TUMULTY, NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT FOR THE "WASHINGTON POST." AND WELCOME BACK TO BOTH OF YOU. WE'RE GLAD TO SEE YOU AS THE CLOCK IS TICKING TOWARD THIS ELECTION. SUSAN, THIS IS AN UNCONVENTIONAL RACE. IT'S BEEN THAT WAY FROM THE BEGINNING. AS WE GET CLOSE TO ELECTION DAY, HOW MUCH IS KNOWN AND NOT KNOWN ABOUT THESE TWO CANDIDATES? HOW DIFFERENT ARE THEY IN THAT REGARD?

>> WELL, LET'S TALK ABOUT DONALD TRUMP. I THINK A LOT OF AMERICANS FEEL LIKE THEY KNOW HIM PRETTY WELL BECAUSE HE'S BEEN A REALITY TV STAR. THEY'VE SEEN HIM. THEY'VE SEEN STORIES ABOUT HIM AND HIS THREE WIVES AND HIS CHILDREN. BUT HE'S OPAQUE IN MANY OF THE WAYS IN WHICH WE HAVE USUALLY EXPECTED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES TO BE TRANSPARENT. ONE IS ON HIS MEDICAL HISTORY. HE WOULD BE THE OLDEST PRESIDENT EVER ELECTED IN OUR HISTORY. WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE TRADITIONAL MEDICAL RELEASES THAT WE'VE SEEN FROM OTHER PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS IN MODERN TIMES. AND ON HIS FINANCES. HE'S FIRST MAJOR PARTY NOMINEE IN 40 YEARS NOT TO RELEASE HIS TAX RETURNS. SO THERE ARE THINGS ABOUT CHARITABLE CONTRIBUTIONS OR THE DEGREE TO WHICH HE IS IN DEBT TO RUSSIAN INTERESTS THAT WE DON'T KNOW ABOUT.

>> Woodruff: KAREN, THERE ARE BIG QUESTIONS STILL OUT THERE, AND WE'RE NOT LIKELY TO KNOW THE ANSWERS TO ALL OF THESE BY NEXT TUESDAY.

>> NO, WE'RE NOT, BUT THERE HAVE BEEN LEAKED DEVELOPMENTS THAT HAVE SPOKEN TO THE FACT THAT WE DON'T HAVE THIS INFORMATION OR THAT PEOPLE HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT THIS INFORMATION. JUST TODAY "THE NEW YORK TIMES" GETTING ANOTHER LEAK OF SOME PARTIAL TAX DOCUMENTS. THERE'S A BIG STORY WHERE THEY DID A DEEP DIVE INTO THE TAX LAW AND DID A STORY ABOUT HOW HARD DONALD TRUMP WAS PUSHING SOME OF THE TAX BREAKS THAT WERE AVAILABLE TO THE POINT WHERE HIS OWN FINANCIAL AND LEGAL ADVISEDDORS WERE WARNING HIM HE WAS RISKING AUDITS, USING PARTS OF THE TAX LAW THAT WERE LATER CHANGED, THINGS THAT HE DID THAT WOULD BE ILLEGAL NOW. ALL OF THAT I THINK, THOUGH, IS GOING TO BE READ BY DEMOCRATS, BY CLINTON SUPPORTERS AS JUST REINFORCING WHAT THEY ALREADY THOUGHT THEY KNEW ABOUT, YOU KNOW, HIS SUPPOSED MALFEASANCE AND AMONG HIS OWN SUPPORTERS JUST FURTHER PROOF THAT HE'S A FINANCIAL GENIUS.

>> Woodruff: AND SUSAN, A STORY LIKE THAT COMES OUT, BUT IT DOES REMIND US, WE DON'T HAVE THE TAX STORY. THIS TOOK A LOT OF DIGGING JUST TO COME UP WITH A LITTLE BIT OF INFORMATION FROM THE 1990s.

>> AND ABOUT A VERY COMPLICATED EQUITY-FOR-DEBT SWAP. DON'T ASK ME TO DESCRIBE IT ANY MORE THAN THAT THAT TRUMP USED. IT'S ALMOST AS THOUGH WE SIDE WITH HILLARY CLINTON BECAUSE WITH HER WE KNOW A LOT ABOUT HER. SHE'S BEEN IN THE PUBLIC EYE FOR DECADES. WE KNOW ABOUT HER FINANCES. SHE'S BEEN PRETTY PUBLIC, REASONABLY OPEN ABOUT HER HEALTH. BUT HER OWN PEOPLE ARGUE THAT WE DON'T KNOW THAT MUCH ABOUT HER, THAT HER PERSONALITY THAT THEY DESCRIBE AS WARM AND ENGAGING IS NOT SOMETHING A LOT OF VOTERS HAVE HAD A GLIMPSE OF. IT'S LIKE THERE'S A REVERSE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE TWO OF THEM.

>> Woodruff: THAT'S RIGHT, KAREN, WE MAY KNOW A LOT ABOUT HER, WE HAVE HER TAX RETURN, FOR EXAMPLE, BUT THERE IS STILL THE PRIVATE HILLARY CLINTON.

>> THIS IS THIS IS A WEEK WHEREE CLINTON CAMPAIGN HAD PLANNED TO MAKE A BIG, AGGRESSIVE, POSITIVE CASE FOR HER AND FOR HER VISION. AND INSTEAD WHAT THEY HAVE FOUND THEMSELVES INVOLVED IN IS YET ANOTHER REVIVAL OF THE E-MAIL CONTROVERSY. THIS ONE NOT INVOLVING HILLARY CLINTON HERSELF DIRECTLY, INVOLVING HER AIDE HUMA ABEDIN AND THE FACT THAT SOME MORE OF HER E-MAILS WERE FOUND IN THE MOST UNFORTUNATE PLACE, HER HUSBAND'S LAPTOP WHILE HE'S UNDER INVESTIGATION FOR SEXTING A MINOR. BUT WHAT THAT DOES, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT'S IN THOSE E-MAIL, BUT WHAT IT DOES IS STIR UP DOUBTS, STIR UP RESERVATIONS THAT PEOPLE HAD ALREADY HAD ABOUT HILLARY CLINTON AND ALSO REPUBLICANS ARE TELLING US, YOU KNOW, REMINDING US THIS IS WHAT THE NEXT FOUR TO EIGHT YEARS ARE GOING TO LOOK LIKE IF SHE'S ELECTED.

>> Woodruff: MEANWHILE, SUSAN, THE F.B.I. TODAY SURPRISINGLY OUT OF THE BLUE RELEASED DOCUMENTS ABOUT THEIR INVESTIGATION BACK IN 2000 WHEN BILL CLINTON WAS LEAVING OFFICE ABOUT PARDONING MARK RICH, A CONTROVERSIAL SENTENCE. IT'S AS IF EVERYWHERE YOU TURN THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF THIS AND A LITTLE BIT OF THAT.

>> AND THERE ARE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES TO THE VERY MESSY END WE SEE TO THIS CAMPAIGN. THE F.B.I., FOR INSTANCE, RELEASING THESE DOCUMENTS. THEY SAY THEY WERE RESPONDING TO A FREEDOM OF INFORMATION ACT REQUEST, AND MAYBE THAT'S CORRECT, BUT IT FEEDS THE IMPRESSION THAT THE F.B.I. IS BECOMING A VERY POLITICAL INSTITUTION, AS WE GET TO THE END OF THIS ELECTION, THAT THEY HAVE TALKED... THE F.B.I. DIRECTOR JAMES COMEY LAST FRIDAY TALKED ABOUT THE INVESTIGATION INTO HILLARY CLINTON'S E-MAILS THAT IS DAMAGING TO HER AND CURTAILED HER MOMENTUM IN THE WAY WE WERE TALKING ABOUT THE CAMPAIGN A WEEK AGO AT THIS TIME BUT NOT TALKING THE SAME WAY ABOUT DONALD TRUMP'S TIES TO FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS.

>> Woodruff: WE HAVEN'T TALKED ABOUT DONALD TRUMP'S CONNECTIONS TO RUSSIA, HIS FORMER CAMPAIGN MANAGER PAUL MANAFORT. AT THIS STAGE IN THE CAMPAIGN HISTORICALLY, HOW MUCH ARE VOTERS SUSCEPTIBLE TO EITHER CHANGING THEIR MIND, DECIDING NOT TO VOTE? WHAT IS THE INFORMATION?

>> AT THIS POINT OVER 20 MILLION VOTERS HAVE ALREADY VOTED. SO THEIR VOTES ARE IN THE BANK. BUT OF THAT SMALL POPULATION OF PEOPLE WHO HAVE NOT YET MADE UP THEIR MINDS BETWEEN THESE TWO CANDIDATES OR WHETHER THEY ARE EVEN GOING TO VOTE AT ALL, HISTORY WOULD SUGGEST THAT THESE PEOPLE ARE PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO SWINGING WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT, SWINGING WITH, YOU KNOW, WHAT'S HITTING THEM HOUR BY HOUR.

>> YOU KNOW, TRUMP SUPPORTERS ARE PRETTY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT HIM. EVEN IF YOU GET STORIES TODAY ABOUT DONALD TRUMP, I THINK THEY'RE UNLIKELY TO BE DISCOURAGED. HILLARY CLINTON, SHE HAS SOME VERY ENTHUSE IMRASSIC SUPPORTERS, BUT SHE HAS SOME THAT ARE NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT HER, WHICH WOULD INCLUDE AFRICAN AMERICANS THAT ARE NOT AS WARM TO HER AS BARACK OBAMA AND ALSO MILLENNIAL VOTERS WHO HAVE NOT BEEN VERY RELIABLE VOTERS BUT WERE AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE OBAMA COALITION. I THINK THE RISK FOR HILLARY CLINTON ISN'T THAT THEY'LL DECIDE TO VOTE FOR DONALD TRUMP. IT'S THAT THEY'LL DECIDE NOT TO VOTE AT ALL.

>> AND JUST AS IMPORTANT DOWN THE BALLOT, TOO. A WEEK AGO IT LOOKED LIKE THE DEMOCRATS WERE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE TO TAKE BACK THE SENATE. NOW SOME OF THOSE RACES ARE SORT OF GETTING CLOSER, BACK IN PLAY, IN PART BECAUSE THE REPUBLICANS ARE MAKING THE ARGUMENT, WE NEED A REPUBLICAN CONGRESS AS A CHECK ON HILLARY CLINTON, NOT JUST ON HER AGENDA, BUT ON HER ADMINISTRATION'S BEHAVIOR.

>> Woodruff: SO IT'S NOT SO MUCH WHETHER THESE NEW STORIES CHANGE ANYTHING, BUT THEY CAN RAISE OR SUPPRESS PEOPLE'S INTEEST IN TURNING OUT.

>> THIS HAS KEPT HILLARY CLINTON FROM HAVING THE POSITIVE CLOSE SHE THOUGHT SHE COULD HAVE. IT CAN ALSO HAVE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES AS THE WHETHER SHE CAN HAVE A MANDATE.

>> Woodruff: WHOEVER WINS THIS ELECTION, HOW MUCH OF MANDATE DO THEY HAVE? HOW MUCH SUPPORT DO THEY HAVE IN THE COUNTRY? KAREN TUMULTY WITH THE "WASHINGTON POST." SUSAN PAGE WITH "USA TODAY." THANK YOU BOTH.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Woodruff: IN OUR ELECTION COVERAGE ONLINE, WTHE SUBURBS-- LONG A REPUBLICAN STRONGHOLD, BUT NOW TRENDING DEMOCRATIC, AND EXPLORE WHAT THE TRANSFORMATION MEANS FOR AMERICAN POLITICS. THAT'S AT pbs.org/newshour.

>> Woodruff: NOW, LET'S TURN TO AN ELECTION STORY AT THE STATE LEVEL. THERE ARE IMPORTANT BALLOT INITIATIVES ALL AROUND THE COUNTRY. TONIGHT, WE LOOK AT ONE OF THOSE BATTLES: OVER BILINGUAL EDUCATION IN CALIFORNIA. MORE THAN NINE PERCENT OF ALL STUDENTS IN THE U.S. DON'T SPEAK ENGLISH FLUENTLY. THEY STRUGGLE MORE IN SCHOOL, TRAILING BEHIND IN EVERY ACADEMIC MEASURE AND AT EVERY GRADE. IN CALIFORNIA, THAT'S TRUE FOR NEARLY ONE IN EVERY FOUR CHILDREN OR ALMOST 1.5 MILLION KIDS. SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT KAVITHA CARDOZA WITH OUR PARTNER "EDUCATION WEEK" VISITED CALIFORNIA, WHERE VOTERS WILL SOON DECIDE HOW TO BEST TEACH THESE CHILDREN, PART OF OUR WEEKLY SERIES, "MAKING THE GRADE."

>> Reporter: AT A FARMER'S MARKET IN SAN FRANCISCO, SIGNS OF MULTICULTURALISM ARE EVERYWHERE: A GOOD PLACE TO CONVINCE CITIZENS TO VOTE IN FAVOR OF ALLOWING BILINGUAL EDUCATION IN CALIFORNIA SCHOOLS.

>> HI! WE'RE HERE WITH INFORMATION ABOUT PROPOSITION 58 THAT'S GOING TO BE ON THE BALLOT THIS NOVEMBER. WHAT PROPOSITION 58 WILL DO REALLY IS PUT THE DECISION MAKING BACK INTO THE HANDS OF THE PEOPLE CLOSEST TO THE STUDENTS, THE PARENTS AND THE SCHOOLS.

>> Reporter: ALMOST 20 YEARS AGO, CALIFORNIANS OVERWHELMINGLY VOTED IN FAVOR OF DOING EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE, VOTING FOR A PROPOSITION WHICH REQUIRED STUDENTS WHO DIDN'T SPEAK ENGLISH FLUENTLY TO BE TAUGHT ONLY IN ENGLISH. MOST BILINGUAL PROGRAMS CLOSED. A SILICON VALLEY SOFTWARE DEVELOPER WAS THE ARCHITECT OF THE SUCCESSFUL ENGLISH-ONLY PROPOSITION BACK THEN. RON UNZ REMAINS OPPOSED TODAY. YOU'RE NOT A PARENT OR A TEACHER OR A RESEARCHER, HOW DID THIS BECOME YOUR ISSUE?

>> I COME FROM A LITTLE BIT OF AN IMMIGRANT BACKGROUND MYSELF, IN THAT MY MOTHER WAS BORN IN LOS ANGELES BUT GREW UP NOT SPEAKING A WORD OF ENGLISH. SHE LEARNED ENGLISH VERY QUICKLY AND EASILY WHEN SHE STARTED KINDERGARTEN AND THAT WAS THE SAME CASE WITH MANY OTHER PEOPLE SHE KNEW.

>> Reporter: UNZ SAYS LEARNING ENGLISH QUICKLY IS KEY TO ASSIMILATING IN THE U.S.

>> BILINGUAL EDUCATION DOESN'T WORK NOW, IT'S NEVER WORKED IN THE PAST AND DESPITE ITS ADVOCATES EXTREME IDEOLOGICAL COMMITMENT TO THAT POLICY, IT'S JUST TOTALLY UNSUCCESSFUL.

>> Reporter: CALIFORNIA STATE SENATOR RICARDO LARA AGREES THAT LEARNING ENGLISH IS KEY. HE DISAGREES ON HOW TO GET THERE. AMONG HIS FIVE SIBLINGS, HE AND HIS SISTER DID WELL IN AN ENGLISH-ONLY ENVIRONMENT. HIS OTHER THREE SIBLINGS STRUGGLED. UNTIL THEY SWITCHED TO BILINGUAL SCHOOLS, THEN THEY BEGAN TO EXCEL ACADEMICALLY.

>> KIDS LEARN DIFFERENTLY AND WE ALL KNOW THAT THAT'S A FACT NOW SO WHY ARE WE GOING TO HAVE A ONE COOKIE CUTTER, ONE SIZE FITS ALL APPROACH TO LEARNING ENGLISH IN CALIFORNIA, WHICH IS ONE OF THE MOST DIVERSE STATES?

>> Reporter: STATE SENATOR LARA IS SPONSORING PROPOSITION 58 WHICH WILL MAKE IT EASIER FOR INDIVIDUAL SCHOOL DISTRICTS TO EXPAND BILINGUAL PROGRAMS. HE SAYS THERE'S BEEN A BROADER CULTURAL SHIFT IN THE PAST 20 YEARS. GLOBALIZATION HAS MADE KNOWING MORE THAN ONE LANGUAGE A BENEFIT, RATHER THAN A BURDEN. ADELANTE SPANISH IMMERSION SCHOOL SAW THE BENEFIT 20 YEARS AGO. THEY MANAGED TO KEEP THEIR BILINGUAL PROGRAMS INTACT. PRINCIPAL CHRISTINE HILTBRAND SAYS MUCH OF THE DEMAND IS BEING DRIVEN BY MIDDLE CLASS, EDUCATED PARENTS.

>> WE HAD ABOUT 100 KIDS ON THE WAIT LIST. THE DISTRICT BECAUSE OF THAT POPULARITY HAS OPENED A SECOND SPANISH IMMERSION SCHOOL AND THAT'S FULL TOO.

>> Reporter: THEIR METHOD IS CALLED DUAL LANGUAGE IMMERSION. HALF THE STUDENT BODY SPEAKS ENGLISH AT HOME, HALF SPEAK SPANISH. IN EARLY YEARS, CHILDREN HERE SPEND MOST OF THEIR TIME LEARNING ALL THEIR SUBJECTS IN SPANISH. GRADUALLY MORE CLASSES ARE TAUGHT IN ENGLISH, UNTIL THE 4th GRADE WHEN THEY SPEND EXACTLY HALF THE TIME IN EACH LANGUAGE. LEARNING A SECOND LANGUAGE WAS HARD AT FIRST, BUT ARIANNA BACA SAYS IT GETS EASIER.

>> I'M LIKE "OH, NOW ITS ENGLISH TIME AND NOW I SPEAK ENGLISH. MY BRAIN JUST SWITCHES OFF."

>> Reporter: CHILDREN SAY KNOWING TWO LANGUAGES IS USEFUL, EVEN BEYOND SCHOOL.

>> I USE SPANISH WHEN I GO TO A MARKET BECAUSE SOMETIMES PEOPLE AT THE MARKET SPEAK SPANISH. ALSO, I WENT TO SPAIN AND SO EVERYBODY THERE SPEAKS SPANISH SO IT WAS VERY USEFUL.

>> MY MOM WORKS CLEANING HOUSES AND SOMETIMES SHE WANTS TO SEND MESSAGES TO HER BOSS, TO CLEAN THE HOUSE. SOMETIMES SHE WANTS ME TO HELP HER TO PUT WHAT TO SAY AND STUFF LIKE THAT.

>> Reporter: LAURIE OLSEN IS A BILINGUAL ADVOCATE.

>> THE ABILITY TO SPEAK LANGUAGES, IT'S A SKILL. IT'S A HIGH LEVEL SKILL. WE AS A SOCIETY NEED PEOPLE WHO CAN BE THE FIREFIGHTERS AND THE DOCTORS AND THE DIPLOMATS THAT HAVE THE ABILITY TO SPEAK ACROSS LANGUAGES AND COMMUNITIES.

>> Reporter: THERE'S A BROAD COALITION IN FAVOR OF GIVING SCHOOL DISTRICTS THE OPTION OF BILINGUAL EDUCATION. BUT CRITICS LIKE RON UNZ REMAIN UNCONVINCED.

>> I THINK IT WOULD BE VERY RIDICULOUS FOR THE STATE TO CONSIDER MOVING BACK TO THE OLD SPANISH ALMOST-ONLY SYSTEM OR SO-CALLED BILINGUAL EDUCATION.

>> Reporter: HE POINTS OUT AFTER THE ENGLISH ONLY PROPOSITION PASSED, TEST SCORES WENT UP. BUT THAT'S ONLY HALF THE STORY. THOUGH THERE WAS AN INITIAL BUMP, WHEN RESEARCHERS FOLLOWED THESE CHILDREN OVER TIME, THEY FOUND BY MIDDLE SCHOOL THOSE IN ENGLISH-ONLY CLASSES STRUGGLED BECAUSE IT'S HARD TO KEEP UP WITH SAY HISTORY OR SCIENCE, IF YOU DON'T UNDERSTAND WHAT'S BEING SAID. ONLY THOSE IN BILINGUAL CLASSES CONTINUED TO DO WELL IN SCHOOL. HOW DOES ADELANTE STACK UP? STUDENT SCORES ARE SEVEN POINTS HIGHER IN READING THAN THE STATE AVERAGE, AND 13 POINTS HIGHER IN MATH. AND BY 5th GRADE, CHILDREN ARE FULLY BILINGUAL. PATRICIA GANDARA IS A RESEARCHER WITH THE UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES.

>> WE NOW KNOW DEFINITIVELY THAT THERE ARE HUGE ADVANTAGES; ADVANTAGES IN EMPLOYMENT, SOCIAL ADVANTAGES, PSYCHOLOGICAL ADVANTAGES, AND COGNITIVE ADVANTAGES. IT JUST SEEMS TO ME TO BE SUCH A SHAME THAT WE ARE AN IMMIGRANT COUNTRY. WE ARE BLESSED WITH THIS RICHNESS OF LANGUAGES AND TO NOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT, TO NOT LET OUR KIDS HAVE THAT OPPORTUNITY, SEEMS TO BE JUST A TREMENDOUS WASTE; A TREMENDOUS WASTE OF RESOURCES.

>> Reporter: RECENT POLLING IN CALIFORNIA SUGGESTS VOTERS SUPPORT MORE BILINGUAL PROGRAMS. SPIEGEL-COLEMAN SAYS 20 YEARS AGO, ATTITUDES WERE DIFFERENT.

>> WE WOULD'VE GOTTEN DIRTY LOOKS, WE WOULD'VE BEEN INSULTED. PEOPLE WOULD HAVE SAID THINGS TO US LIKE, "THAT'S THE SPANISH ONLY PROGRAM, THEY SHOULD BE LEARNING ENGLISH." WE DIDN'T HEAR ANY OF THAT TODAY.'

>> Reporter: SHE'S HOPING THOSE CHANGED ATTITUDES WILL TRANSLATE INTO VOTES THIS NOVEMBER. FOR THE PBS NEWSHOUR AND EDUCATION WEEK, I'M KAVITHA CARDOZA REPORTING FROM SAN FRANCISCO.

>> Woodruff: STAY WITH US, COMING UP ON THE NEWSHOUR: ARE POLITICAL STRATEGISTS WORTH THE MILLIONS THEY'RE PAID? THE STRUGGLE TO FIND HEALTH INSURANCE COVERAGE FOR CHILDREN WITH AUTISM. AND WHY CONSERVATIVE VOTERS IN SOME OF THE STATES THAT NEED FEDERAL ASSISTANCE DON'T TRUST THE GOVERNMENT. BUT FIRST, AS WE REPORTED EARLIER, IRAQI TROOPS CROSSED THE CITY LIMITS OF THE ISIS-HELD CITY OF MOSUL TODAY. PRIME MINISTER HAIDAR AL ABADI SAID THAT THE MILITANTS TWO CHOICES: "SURRENDER OR DIE." IRAQI SPECIAL FORCES FOUGHT INTO THE CITY'S EASTERN OUTSKIRTS, AT GOGJALI. THE ROAD THERE HAS BEEN LONG AND DANGEROUS. SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT CHRISTOPHER LIVESAY WAS THERE AS THE TROOPS MOVED IN, AND HE FILED THIS REPORT.

>> Reporter: THIS IS THE ROAD TO MOSUL, LITTERED WITH THE SCORCHED DEBRIS OF ISIS IN RETREAT, BUT THEY ARE NOT GOING QUIETLY. THE SKY IS BLACK WITH SMOKE BILLOWING FROM THE OIL FIELDS ISIS HAS SET ABLAZE. THE TERROR GROUP HELD THIS TERRITORY FOR MORE THAN TWO YEARS, AND IN THAT TIME THEY BUILT AN ELABORATE INDUSTRY TO MANUFACTURE I.E.D.s AND SUICIDE CAR BOMBS. ONLY NOW CAN THEY SEE THAT UP CLOSE.

>> THIS IS A SUICIDE CAR. THEY WERE IN THE PROCESS OF PACKING IT WITH TNT, BUT APPARENTLY THEY DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH TIME BEFORE THE INVASION STARTED AND THEY HAD TO RUN OUT, BUT IT'S STILL PACKED WITH EXPLOSIVES.

>> Reporter: THE SUICIDE CAR BOMBER APPEARS TO HAVE GOTTEN AWAY AND SEND OFF THE FIGHTING THIS MORNING IN GOGJALI, AN AREA ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF MOSUL.

>> MY SON...

>> HE HAS A 50 CALIBER MACHINE GUN. THEY WERE ABLE TO STOP HIM.

>> Reporter: THE DRIVER WAS ABLE TO DETONATE THE VEHICLE. HIS VEHICLE LODGED IN THE ROADBLOCK. WITH FORCES MOVING ON ISIS TERRITORY, THEY ARE VARIED, INCLUDING SHIA MILITIAS BACKED BY IRAN AND SECURITY FORCES FROM THE KURDISH REGION KNOWN AS PERSON MASTERING. -- PESHMERGA. BY MID-DAY, THE ISIS SIDE OF THE BATTLEFRONT WAS STILL FOR A MOMENT. AND THESE TERRIFIED CIVILIANS SAW THEIR CHANCE TO FLEE THE ISLAMIC STATE AFTER TWO YEARS OF CAPTIVITY. THEY ARE THE LUCKY ONES. REPORTS ARE MOUNTING OF ISIS ROUNDING UP LOCALS BY THE THOUSANDS TO USE AS HUMAN SHIELDS INSIDE MOSUL. ONE MOTHER DIDN'T EVEN HAVE TIME TO STOP AND GIVE HER NAME.

>> ( TRANSLATED ): THE LAST TIME WE TRIED TO RUN AWAY, THEY SHOT AT US. THIS TIME WE HAD TO STAY VERY LOW SO THEY COULDN'T HIT US. TODAY WAS FIRST CHANCE WE HAD.

>> Reporter: WE FOUND THIS 20-YEAR-OLD SHEPHERD FLEEING EAST WITH HIS FLOCK, SEARCHING FOR SHELTER. HE SAID ISIS WOULDN'T ALLOW HIM TO ATTEND SCHOOL AND PUNISHED HIM FOR BREAKING STRICT ISLAMIC DRESS CODES.

>> ( TRANSLATED ): I SPENT FIVE DAYS IN JAIL FOR WEARING LONG PANTS. THEY BEAT ME IN THERE, LASHED ME. NOW I KNOW I'M IN A SAFE PLACE, THANK GOD.

>> Reporter: BUT THE RELIEF IS BITTERSWEET. HE HAD TO LEAVE BEHIND HIS PARENTS, BROTHERS AND SISTERS. JUST WHEN THE COAST LOOKED CLEAR, ISIS PROVED IT WASN'T GIVING UP WITHOUT A FIGHT. [GUNFIRE] GUNFIRE CRACKED ALL AROUND. AT LEAST ONE IRAQI SOLDIER IS SHOT DEAD. BUT IRAQI SPECIAL FORCES ARE QUICK TO RALLY AND RETURN FIRE ON VIRTUALLY EVERY BUILDING LINING THIS ROAD THAT LEADS TO THE HEART OF MOSUL.

>> ( TRANSLATED ): WE ARE WAITING TO GO INSIDE THE CITY OF MOSUL. MOSUL IS OUR LAND. WE WILL ENTER IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS. GOD WILLING WE WILL FLY OUR FLAG ON THE CITY.

>> Reporter: BUT THE VIOLENCE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF CEASING AS TROOPS MOVE DEEPER INTO MOSUL, AND THERE IS NO TELLING HOW LONG THE CITY'S TOTAL LIBERATION WILL TAKE. FOR THE PBS NEWS HOUR, I'M CHRISTOPHER LIVESAY IN GOGJALI, IRAQ.

>> Woodruff: REGARDLESS OF THE OUTCOME ON ELECTION DAY, POLITICAL SCIENTISTS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN STUDYING THIS GROUNDBREAKING CAMPAIGN. ONE TANTALIZING SUBJECT: THE TRUE VALUE OF POLITICAL CONSULTANTS. ARE THEY WORTH THE MILLIONS THEY CHARGE POLITICIANS EACH YEAR? "ATLANTIC" WRITER MOLLY BALL EXPLORES THIS QUESTION IN HER ARTICLE, "THERE'S NOTHING BETTER THAN A SCARED, RICH CANDIDATE." WHAT A GREAT QUOTE.

>> YES. THAT IS A QUOTATION FROM A BOOK BY A POLITICAL SCIENTIST ABOUT THE POLITICAL CONSULTING INDUSTRY, AND IT'S SOMETHING THAT JUST REALLY SUMMED UP WHAT I WAS GETTING AT WITH THIS ARTICLE, WHICH WAS KIND OF ASKING THE QUESTION, IS THIS ALL A CON GAME, THIS POLITICAL CONSULTING RACKET? CANDIDATES ARE SPENDING BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, AND WHAT ARE THEY REALLY GETTING FOR IT? IS IT JUST THE CONSULTANTS LINING THEIR POCKETS?

>> Woodruff: WELL, THIS IS A QUESTION THAT HAS BEEN ASKED FOR SOME TIME, BUT IT COMES INTO PARTICULAR RELIEF THIS YEAR, DOESN'T IT?

>> THAT'S RIGHT. I MEAN, FIRST OF ALL, LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED PARTICULARLY IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES. YOU HAD THE TWO EXTREMES, YOU HAD JEB BUSH SPENT $130 MILLION, END UP WITH FOUR DELEGATES.

>> I'M JEB BUSH AND I APPROVED THIS MESSAGE.

>> DONALD TRUMP SPENT ALMOST NOTHING, HAD NO EXPERIENCED

>> I'M NOT DOING THAT TO BRAG, BECAUSE I DON'T NEED TO BRAG, I DON'T NEED TO BRAG, BELIEVE IT OR NOT.

>> CONSULTANTS ON HIS STAFF, NOBODY WHO'D EVER RUN A PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN BEFORE, AND BARELY ADVERTISED ON TELEVISION, DIDN'T DO ANY OF THE TACTICAL STUFF WE'RE USED TO AND WRITE ABOUT SO MUCH: THE BUILDING OF FIELD OPERATION AND HAVING A COMMUNICATIONS SHOP AND ALL OF THAT STUFF. AND HE WON THE WHOLE THING.

>> I HUMBLY ACCEPT YOUR NOMINATION.

>> SO THE QUESTION IS, DOES THAT MEAN THE EMPEROR HAS NO CLOTHES; DOES THAT MEAN THAT ALL OF THIS SPENDING-THERE'S MORE MONEY IN POLITICS THAN EVER BEFORE. BECAUSE OF THE WAY CAMPAIGN FINANCE HAS BEEN DEREGULATED, DONOR MONEY IS POURING INTO THE POLITICAL PROCESS. BY ONE ESTIMATE, $6 BILLION THIS YEAR ALONE. WHERE IS ALL THAT MONEY GOING, WHAT IS IT DOING AND IS IT HAVING ANY EFFECT?

>> Woodruff: SO YOU SPENT TIME TALKING WITH ONE OF THE PEOPLE WHO WAS KEY IN THE JEB BUSH CAMPAIGN, MIKE MURPHY, SOMEBODY WHO'S BEEN AROUND FOR A WHILE IN AMERICAN REPUBLICAN POLITICS. AND WHAT DID YOU FIND FROM TALKING TO HIM ABOUT WHAT THE PLAN WAS AND HOW HE SAW HIS ABILITY TO SHAPE THE CAMPAIGN?

>> I WANT TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT I'M NOT REALLY PICKING ON MIKE MURPHY. HE'S JUST AN EXEMPLAR OF THIS PHENOMENON. BUT IT'S A PRETTY PERFECT EXAMPLE OF A CAMPAIGN THAT SPENT A LOT OF MONEY, HAD A VERY PROFESSIONAL STAFF AND DIDN'T ACHIEVE ANY RESULTS. MIKE MURPHY'S EXPLANATION WAS THIS JUST WASN'T THE YEAR FOR A CANDIDATE LIKE JEB BUSH. AND I THINK THAT'S CERTAINLY TRUE IN RETROSPECT, IN HINDSIGHT. BUT HE SAID THAT WE HAD TO HAVE ALL THAT MONEY BECAUSE IT WAS THE ONLY WAY WE COULD HAVE GONE AGAINST THE HEADWINDS WE WERE FACING. AND NOBODY COULD HAVE ANTICIPATED THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ELECTORATE'S APPETITE FOR WHAT HE TERMS A GRIEVANCE CANDIDATE. BUT YOU KNOW, THE DONORS THAT I SPOKE TO, THE PEOPLE WHO WERE GIVING JEB BUSH $100 MILLION, THEY EXPECT THE CONSULTANTS TO SEE THOSE THINGS.

>> Woodruff: FOR ALL THE CONTROVERSY, THE QUESTIONS AROUND POLITICAL CONSULTANTS, SOME OF THEM HAVE ACHIEVED NEAR- MYTHIC STATUS. JAMES CARVILLE FROM THE BILL CLINTON CAMPAIGN OF YEARS AGO. KARL ROVE FROM GEORGE W. BUSH'S CAMPAIGN. THEY REALLY HELPED MAKE THESE CANDIDATES WHO THEY WERE, DIDN'T THEY?

>> THIS IS REALLY A MODERN PHENOMENON OF THE CONSULTANTS AS A CELEBRITY IN HIS OR HER OWN RIGHT. POLITICAL CONSULTING GETS STARTED BACK IN THE 1930S, BUT THEY WERE REALLY SORT OF ANONYMOUS FIGURES UNTIL REALLY IN THE 1990S. POLITICAL JOURNALISM REALLY STARTED FOCUSING ON THESE SORT OF OZ-LIKE FIGURES, RIGHT, THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN PULLING THE STRINGS.

>> I JUST TOOK IT AS A GOOD SIGN BECAUSE I DON'T THINK THEY WOULD CALL BACK IF THEY WEREN'T CONSIDERING.

>> AND SO YOU DO HAVE, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE THE DOCUMENTARY THE WAR ROOM ABOUT JAMES CARVILLE AND GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS IN THE '90S.

>> IT'S GOING TO COME OUT THAT ROGER AILES IS BEHIND A LOT OF THIS STUFF BEFORE AN ELECTION

>> THOSE MEN ARE NOW FAMOUS IN THEIR OWN RIGHT. KARL ROVE WAS SUPPOSEDLY GEORGE W. BUSH'S BRAIN, RIGHT. BUSH IS IN THIS SCENARIO SORT OF A HAPLESS PAWN, AND ROVE IS CALLING ALL THE SHOTS. BUT YOU KNOW, PART OF WHY WE TURN CONSULTANTS INTO HEROES LIKE THIS IS BECAUSE PARTISANS, PARTICULARLY ON THE LOSING SIDE, WANT TO BELIEVE THAT THERE WAS SOME KIND OF HIDDEN GENIUS. IT WASN'T THAT THEIR CANDIDATE WASN'T GOOD ENOUGH AND PEOPLE DIDN'T LIKE WHAT THEY WERE OFFERING, AND VOTERS REJECTED THEM. IT'S THAT THERE WAS THIS, YOU KNOW, SINISTER SVENGALI ON THE OTHER SIDE WHO HAD SOME KIND OF MAGICAL ABILITY TO CONTROL THE ELECTORATE.

>> Woodruff: IS IT POSSIBLE TO KNOW HOW MUCH OF A CAMPAIGN, A CANDIDATE'S PERFORMANCE IN A CAMPAIGN IS THANKS TO THE CONSULTANT AND HOW MUCH OF IT IS THE CANDIDATE HIMSELF OR HERSELF?

>> IT'S VERY DIFFICULT. IT'S VERY DIFFICULT. POLITICAL SCIENTISTS ACTUALLY LOVE THE DONALD TRUMP CAMPAIGN BECAUSE IT'S SORT OF A CONTROL FOR THE EXPERIMENT. BECAUSE THERE HAS BEEN SO LITTLE CONSULTANT INPUT TO DONALD TRUMP'S PRESENTATION, YOU CAN SORT OF ISOLATE THE EFFECT OF A CANDIDATE ON HIS OWN WITH HIS PARTICULAR CHARISMA AND NO PARTICULAR SHAPING OR HELP, AT LEAST UNTIL THE VERY LATE STAGES OF HIS CAMPAIGN. BUT IN GENERAL, POLITICAL SCIENTISTS HAVE BEEN STUDYING THIS FOR DECADES. A REAL LANDMARK OF THIS TYPE OF STUDY WAS DONE WHEN RICK PERRY WAS RUNNING FOR GOVERNOR OF TEXAS IN 2010, AND THE CONSULTANTS RUNNING HIS CAMPAIGN ACTUALLY ALLOWED A GROUP OF POLITICAL SCIENTISTS TO RUN A RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED EXPERIMENT, WHERE THEY RAN ADS IN ONE PART OF TEXAS.

>> I'M PROUD OF TEXAS. HOW ABOUT YOU?

>> THEY DIDN'T RUN ANY ADS IN THE OTHER PART OF TEXAS. AND THESE WERE PRETTY SIMILAR POPULATIONS, SO THEY COULD REALLY SEE WHAT WAS THE EFFECT, HOW MUCH DID PEOPLE IN THIS PART OF TEXAS LIKE RICK PERRY MORE HAVING SEEN HIS ADS VERSUS THE PEOPLE IN THIS OTHER PLACE. AND THEY DID FIND THERE WAS A SMALL EFFECT. ABOUT FIVE POINTS. BUT IT WAS GONE WITHIN A WEEK.

>> Woodruff: AND YET CERTAIN POLITICAL ADS IN ARE SEARED IN OUR COLLECTIVE MEMORY AS GAME- CHANGERS, SUCH AS THE SO CALLED "DAISY" AD LYNDON JOHNSON RAN AGAINST BARRY GOLDWATER IN 1964.

>> ONE, TWO. ( EXPLOSION )

>> Woodruff: OR THE "WINDSURFING" AD RUN AGAINST JOHN KERRY IN 2004.

>> JOHN KERRY, WHICHEVER WAY THE WIND BLOWS.

>> WHAT THE CONSULTANTS WILL TELL YOU IS THAT THE KIND OF MYTHMAKING THAT WE JOURNALISTS ENGAGE IN, WHERE WE SAY, THIS AD WAS THE TURNING POINT, THAT'S BASICALLY FALSE. IT WAS THE FUNDAMENTAL FACTORS DRIVING THE ELECTORATE THAT LED TO ONE CANDIDATE WINNING OR LOSING. JOHN KERRY, ACCORDING TO THE POLITICAL CONSULTANTS, WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY GOING TO LOSE THAT ELECTION ANYWAY, GIVEN THE MAKEUP OF THE RACE, BEING UP AGAINST AN INCUMBENT, THE ECONOMY DOING HOW IT WAS DOING. AND, L.B.J. ALMOST CERTAINLY WOULD HAVE WON THAT ELECTION WITHOUT THE DAISY AD.

>> Woodruff: DID YOU COME AWAY WITH A SENSE OF WHAT TACTICS CAN WORK AND WHICH ONES ARE INCREASINGLY NOT SHOWN TO BE EFFECTIVE?

>> YOU DO SEE AN INCREASING EMPHASIS ON FIELD ORGANIZING AS OPPOSED TO ADVERTISING. YOU SEE THIS WITH LABOR AND WITH PARTICULARLY DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGNS. AND THERE IS A MUCH MORE CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE IN THE POLITICAL SCIENCE LITERATURE THAT THIS KIND OF THING ACTUALLY WORKS. THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN REALLY PIONEERED THIS MODEL OF INTENSIVE FIELD ORGANIZING. HUNDREDS OF CAMPAIGN OFFICES ALL OVER THE COUNTRY. BUT YOU NEED A CANDIDATE WHO'S COMPELLING ENOUGH TO ATTRACT A LOT OF VOLUNTEERS TO MAKE AN EFFORT LIKE THAT WORK. YOU CAN'T JUST PAY FOR IT ALL.

>> TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THESE CONSULTANTS DOING THIS TO MAKE MONEY? HOW MUCH DO THEY REALLY CARE ABOUT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS? ARE THEY COMMITTED TO A PARTICULAR IDEOLOGY?

>> WELL I ATTENDED THE CONVENTION OF THE AMERICAN ASSOCIATION OF POLITICAL CONSULTANTS. AND THE CONSULTANTS WILL TELL YOU THAT THEY ARE IN THIS BECAUSE THEY WANT TO MAKE THE WORLD A BETTER PLACE. MOST OF THEM ONLY WORK FOR ONE SIDE; THEY'RE EITHER A DEMOCRATIC CONSULTANT OR A REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT. AND SO THEY'RE TRYING TO ADVANCE THIS VISION OF THE WORLD, TRYING TO ACHIEVE CHANGES IN POLICY BY HELPING CANDIDATES GET ELECTED. BUT THEY WILL ADMIT THEY ALSO HAVE TO MAKE A LIVING.

>> Woodruff: AT THIS CONFERENCE YOU COVERED, THEY SHOWED A GENERIC POLITICAL AD. TALK ABOUT WHAT WAS IN THAT AD SPOT AND WHAT THE REACTION WAS.

>> THIS IS A PRETTY INCREDIBLE VIDEO. IT WAS COMPLETELY GENERIC. THERE'S A SORT OF GENERIC WHITE MAN WALKING THROUGH A GENERIC FIELD, AND THERE'S IMAGES OF AMERICAN FLAGS, WELDERS IN A FACTORY, ALL OF THE THINGS THAT MIGHT COME TO MIND WHEN YOU IMAGINE A GENERIC POLITICAL AD. AND THE MESSAGE IT WAS SENDING WAS, THESE CANDIDATES ARE JUST SOMEONE THAT THE CONSULTANT STICKS IN THERE TO READ THE SCRIPT, AND THEY COULD ALL PRETTY MUCH BE SAYING THE SAME THING. THEY'RE ALL PRETTY MUCH INTERCHANGEABLE.

>> I'M A CANDIDATE AND I ENDORSE THIS MESSAGE.

>> Woodruff: WHICH IS ENOUGH TO MAKE ONE PRETTY CYNICAL ABOUT THIS.

>> I THINK IT IS, AND I THINK THAT THIS ACTUALLY GOES SOME WAY TO EXPLAINING THE APPEAL OF DONALD TRUMP TO SO MANY VOTERS. HE SEEMS UTTERLY AUTHENTIC IN A WAY THAT IS FREQUENTLY OFFENSIVE, BUT HE COMES ACROSS AS UNFILTERED. I THINK IN SOME WAYS, THE ATTRACTION OF A CANDIDATE LIKE THAT IS, IN PART, VOTERS' REACTION TO THE INFLUENCE OF CONSULTANTS AND HOW CHOREOGRAPHED AND HOW STALE AND HOW TOTALLY STAGED AND SCRIPTED SO MUCH OF OUR POLITICAL PROCESS HAS COME TO FEEL BECAUSE IT HAS BECOME SO HOMOGENIZED BY THE INFLUENCE OF CONSULTING.

>> Woodruff: TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF ENROLLMENT FOR 2017 UNDER THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT, OTHERWISE KNOWN AS OBAMACARE, BUT FOR SOME PEOPLE WHO HAVE HEALTH INSURANCE, GETTING APPROPRIATE COVERAGE CAN BE A CHALLENGE. MORE THAN 43 MILLION AMERICANS SUFFER FROM DEPRESSION, ANXIETY OR OTHER MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES, BUT MORE THAN HALF NEVER GET HELP; EVEN PEOPLE WHO HAVE HEALTH INSURANCE. FROM PBS STATION KQED IN SAN FRANCISCO, REPORTER APRIL DEMBOSKY AND PRODUCER SHERAZ SADIQ BRING US A STORY OF A SINGLE MOTHER STRUGGLING TO USE HER BENEFITS TO GET TREATMENT FOR HERSELF AND HER SON WITH AUTISM.

>> Reporter: ON A SUNDAY AFTERNOON, NATALIE DUNNEGE AND HER BOYFRIEND, RUSSELL LIFSON, HEAD TO THE PARK WITH NATALIE'S 13 YEAR-OLD SON, STRAZH.

>> ALRIGHT, LET'S GO.

>> Reporter: HE HAS AUTISM, A DEVELOPMENTAL DISORDER THAT AFFECTS ABOUT ONE IN 70 CHILDREN IN THE U.S.

>> YOU HAVE STRENGTHS ON ONE SIDE OF YOUR BRAIN, AND WEAKNESSES ON YOUR OTHER SIDE, LIKE YOU KNOW, CONTROLLING YOUR EMOTIONS OR THIS AND THAT YOU KNOW. STRENGTHS COULD BE LIKE CODING OR YOU KNOW, FOCUSING ON ONE THING FOR HOURS.

>> Reporter: EACH WEEK, AN APPLIED BEHAVIORAL ANALYSIS, OR A.B.A. THERAPIST COMES TO THE HOUSE. A.B.A. THERAPY HELPS KIDS WITH AUTISM LEARN LIFE SKILLS AND HOW TO CONTROL THEIR TEMPER. STRAZH AND HIS THERAPIST, GABBY RADERS, CREATE A SCHEDULE OF CAREFULLY TIMED ACTIVITIES SO HE CAN GET BETTER AT TRANSITIONS.

>> THIS IS THE ID, THE IDENTIFICATION WITH THE ENEMY. THIS IS THE WIDTH, THIS HEIGHT, SPEED X AND SPEED Y.

>> Reporter: ENDING A FAVORITE ACTIVITY CAN TRIGGER A MELTDOWN.

>> I CAN'T DO IT!

>> NO, I CAN'T!

>> A.B.A. THERAPY HAS HELPED MY RELATIONSHIP WITH STRAZH TREMENDOUSLY. IT'S TAUGHT ME HOW TO COMMUNICATE WITH HIM, WHEN TO BACK AWAY, WHEN TO COME IN AND HELP.

>> Reporter: AS A SINGLE MOM WORKING FULL TIME, MONEY IS TIGHT FOR NATALIE. SHE CAN ONLY AFFORD A FEW HOURS OF A.B.A. THERAPY A WEEK.

>> I WANT MY SON TO BE AS SUCCESSFUL AS POSSIBLE, SO EVERY TIME I GET A RAISE, I JUST INCREASE A.B.A. HOURS.

>> Reporter: SHE HAS INSURANCE THROUGH BLUE SHIELD. BUT GETTING MENTAL HEALTH TREATMENT HAS BEEN REALLY TOUGH.

>> SO I WENT ON THE SITE, AND YOU CAN SEE IT SAYS, LIKE DOCTORS, FACILITIES, DENTISTS. NOTHING ABOUT WHERE TO FIND A THERAPIST. I CALLED THEM, AND THEY EMAILED ME A LIST OF PROVIDERS.

>> OH, SO THIS IS THE LIST?

>> YEAH. THEY ALL HAVE A THREE-MONTH WAITING LIST. AND THEN AFTER THE THREE MONTH WAITING LIST, YOU HAVE, LIKE, A TWO TO EIGHT WEEKS OF INTAKE. AND THEN HOPEFULLY YOU GET APPROVED.

>> Reporter: SO SHE PAYS $50 AN HOUR, OUT OF HER OWN POCKET, FOR HER SON'S THERAPY. AND NOW SHE'S FACING SIMILAR HURDLES FINDING MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES FOR HERSELF.

>> THEY SENT ME A LIST, LIKE, I SHOULD BE FINE, JUST MAKE A FEW PHONE CALLS, I'LL FIND SOMEBODY. I CALLED EVERYBODY ON THIS LIST. ONLY ONE PLACE CALLED ME BACK. I HAVE TO BE AS EMOTIONALLY HEALTHY AS POSSIBLE. SO THAT I CAN BE THERE FOR STRAZH BECAUSE HE HAS GOOD WEEKS AND HE HAS BAD WEEKS.

>> Reporter: TURNS OUT, NATALIE'S EXPERIENCE IS BY NO MEANS UNIQUE. I CALLED 100 PSYCHOLOGISTS IN SAN FRANCISCO WHO TAKE NATALIE'S INSURANCE. I'M WONDERING IF YOU ARE INDEED TAKING NEW PATIENTS WITH BLUE SHIELD COVERAGE? HALF SAID THEY'RE NO LONGER TAKING INSURANCE OR NEW PATIENTS, AND A QUARTER NEVER EVEN CALLED BACK. THANKS SO MUCH, BYE BYE. ONLY EIGHT HAD APPOINTMENTS OUTSIDE OF NORMAL WORK HOURS. I CONTACTED BLUE SHIELD FOR AN INTERVIEW BUT THEY DECLINED. INSTEAD, THEY SENT A STATEMENT SAYING THAT THE PROVIDER HAS TO NOTIFY BLUE SHIELD IF THEY'RE NO LONGER TAKING NEW PATIENTS. THEY ALSO SAID CALIFORNIA IS FACING A SHORTAGE OF MENTAL HEALTH PROVIDERS.

>> INSURANCE COMPANIES ARE SAYING THAT THERE'S A SHORTAGE OF MENTAL HEALTH PROVIDERS? THAT'S HARD FOR ME TO BELIEVE. I HAVE MANY COLLEAGUES WHO ARE TRYING TO GET ONTO PANELS. AND THEY RUN INTO THE PROBLEM, AGAIN AND AGAIN, WHERE PANELS SAY, "SORRY, WE'RE CLOSED, WE HAVE ENOUGH PROVIDERS IN YOUR AREA."

>> Reporter: DOCTOR HOPMAN IS A PSYCHOLOGIST WHO ACCEPTS A VARIETY OF INSURANCE PLANS. SHE CAN GET UP TO 20 CALLS A WEEK FROM PEOPLE ASKING FOR HER HELP.

>> IT MAKES ME REALLY ANGRY. IT REALLY IS UPSETTING, AND IT MAKES ME WONDER, WHAT ARE THE INSURANCE PANELS DOING AND WHY ARE THEY LIMITING HOW MANY THERAPISTS THEY TAKE ON ONTO THEIR PANELS?

>> Reporter: WHY DO YOU THINK THEY MIGHT BE LIMITING THE NUMBER OF THERAPISTS?

>> IF YOU MAKE THINGS TOO DIFFICULT TO ACCESS, THEN PATIENTS WILL STOP TRYING TO SEEK THE THERAPY AND I GUESS PART OF ME THINKS THAT THAT'S PROBABLY A GOOD THING FOR THE INSURANCE COMPANIES.

>> Reporter: ANOTHER DIFFICULTY PATIENTS FACE IS OUTDATED OR MISSING INFORMATION ABOUT A THERAPIST'S SPECIALTY.

>> SO FOR INSTANCE, IF I NEED A CARDIOLOGIST FOR A HEART PROBLEM, AND I JUST GET A LIST OF ALL M.D.'S THAT ARE ON MY HEALTH INSURANCE PANEL, I'M NOT GOING TO KNOW WHO TO CALL ABOUT MY PARTICULAR ISSUE THAT I'M NEEDING HELP WITH.

>> Reporter: MANY THERAPISTS COMPLAIN THAT REIMBURSEMENT RATES ARE TOO LOW.

>> OVER THE PAST 18 YEARS OF BEING ON THEIR PANELS, THEY HAVE NOT INCREASED THEIR REIMBURSEMENT RATES. AND YET THE CO-PAYS AND PREMIUMS ARE INCREASING FOR MOST OF MY PATIENTS.

>> Reporter: UNDER STATE AND FEDERAL LAWS, INSURANCE PLANS MUST COVER MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES EQUALLY COMPARED TO OTHER FORMS OF CARE. BUT MILLIONS OF PATIENTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY LIKE NATALIE DUNNEGE AND HER SON STRAZH STILL STRUGGLE TO GET THE HELP THEY NEED.

>> WE'RE ALMOST DONE WITH THIS.

>> GETTING SERVICES THROUGH MY PLAN, THE HARDEST ONE BY FAR IS GETTING MENTAL HEALTH SERVICES. THERE'S NOTHING MORE DIFFICULT. I NEEDED TO FIND A DOCTOR. I FOUND ONE INSTANTLY. BUT MENTAL HEALTH, BEHAVIORAL HEALTH, PSYCHIATRISTS, TO HAVE THAT BE EVEN HARDER, IT'S ALMOST UNBEARABLE SOMETIMES.

>> GOOD NIGHT.

>> Reporter: FOR THE PBS NEWSHOUR, I'M APRIL DEMBOSKY IN SAN FRANCISCO.

>> Woodruff: NOW, BACK TO THE CAMPAIGN AND TO THE LATEST ADDITION IN OUR POLITICAL INK SERIES. WE LOOK AT WHAT IS BEHIND SOME OF THE UNDERLYING LAYERS OF ANGER THAT HAS PERMEATED THIS ELECTION. JEFFREY BROWN IS IN CHARGE.

>> Brown: FROM BERKELEY CALIFORNIA TO THE LOUISIANA BAYOU COUNTRY, SEVERAL THOUSAND MILES AND A DEEP CULTURAL AND POLITICAL DIVIDE. IN THE NEW BOOK, "STRANGERS IN THEIR OWN LAND: ANGER AND MOURNING IN THE AMERICAN RIGHT," BERKELEY SOCIOLOGIST ARLIE RUSSELL HOCHSCHILD PROVIDES A PORTRAIT OF THAT DIVIDE THROUGH THE LIVES OF PEOPLE AROUND LAKE CHARLES, LOUISIANA. AND THE BOOK HAS JUST BEEN NOMINATED FOR A NATIONAL BOOK AWARD, SO WELCOME AND CONGRATULATIONS. WELCOME AND CONGRATULATIONS.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Brown: YOU SAY YOU WERE LOOKING FOR A GREAT PARADOX IN AMERICAN POLITICAL LIFE.

>> THAT IS THAT THE RED STATES ARE STATES WITH A LOT OF NEEDS, NEEDS FOR THEIR SCHOOLS, NEEDS FOR THEIR HEALTH, THEY HAVE LOWER LIFE EXPECTANCY, MORE DISRUPTIVE FAMILIES. THEY DEPEND MORE ON THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT THAN BLUE STATES, AND THEY RESIST AND DISTRUST THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT MORE. AND LOUISIANA SEEMED TO EXAGGERATE THAT. AS THE POOREST STATE, RECEIVING 44% OF ITS STATE BUDGET FROM THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, AND BEING OVERWHELMINGLY VERY CONSERVATIVE.

>> Brown: AND YOU'RE COPPING FROM NOT ONLY A BLUE STATE BUT A CAPITAL OF BLUE CULTURE, FROM BERKELEY, CALIFORNIA. SO YOU'RE COMING AS AN OUTSIDER TO SEE WHAT?

>> TO TAKE MY OWN ALARM SYSTEM OFF AND TO TRY AND CROSS AN EMPATHY WALL AND TO REALLY UNDERSTAND MAINLY WHY IT IS PEOPLE FEEL SO NEGATIVELY ABOUT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.

>> Brown: YOUR MAIN FOCUS WAS THROUGH THE ENVIRONMENT, ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE, WELL DOCUMENTED IN LOUISIANA, BUT THE PEOPLE YOU'RE TALKING TO, THEY DON'T SEE GOVERNMENT AS THE ANSWER. YOU SEE COMING FROM THE OUTSIDE, YOU WOULD IMAGINE THAT THEY WOULD.

>> I WOULD IMAGINE THAT THEY WOULD. AND THEY ARE VICTIMS OF TREMENDOUS POLLUTION. THERE ARE DIFFERENT REASONS WHY THEY DON'T LIKE THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT. ONE IS THEY THINK OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AS THE FINGER-WAGGING NORTH, ALWAYS WITH ITS MORAL JUDGMENT.

>> Brown: MUCH HISTORY THERE.

>> MUCH HISTORY. THE SECOND IS THEY SEE THE COMPANIES AS THE GIVERS OF JOBS AND GIFTS, GIFTS WHICH THE COMPANY CAN AFFORD BECAUSE THE STATE IS GIVING IT $1.5 BILLION. IT'S GIVEN TO THE AUDOBON SOCIETY. SO THE STATE LOOKS -- THE COMPANY LOOKS VERY GENEROUS AND THE STATE DOESN'T REALLY REGULATE THE POLLUTERS. SO VICTIMS OF THE POLLUTION BLAME THE STATE.

>> Brown: IN FACT, THEY TELL YOU OVER AND OVER AGAIN, THE EVIDENCE THEY SEE IS THAT THEY HAVE NOT BENEFITED. SO WHY WOULD THEY LOOK TO GOVERNMENT FOR MORE REGULATION?

>> I UNDERSTAND THAT ACTUALLY IN A WAY I DIDN'T WHEN I SET OUT. BUT I FEEL LIKE THE COMPANIES ARE MAKING THE STATE DO THE MORAL DIRTY WORK OF NOT -- OF PROMISING TO PROTECT BUT NOT PROTECTING. BUT THERE'S ANOTHER REASON THAT I THINK THEY DON'T TRUST THE GOVERNMENT. THEY SEE IT AS AN INSTRUMENT OF THEIR OWN MARGINALIZATION, BECAUSE THEY FEEL, ESPECIALLY DEMOCRATIC ADMINISTRATIONS HAVE FAVORED BLACKS, WOMEN, IMMIGRANTS, REFUGEES, AND ALL OF THESE GROUPS THEY SEE AS GETTING AHEAD OF THEM, ALMOST LIKE LINE CUTTERS PUSHING THEM BACK IN LINE.

>> Brown: I KNOW YOU STARTED THIS SEVERAL YEARS AGO, BUT, OF COURSE, HERE WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF A CAMPAIGN. WHAT DOES DONALD TRUMP OFFER? WHAT DO THEY SEE IN HIM?

>> I FEEL AS IF I HAVE STUDIED FOR FOUR YEARS THE KINDLING, AND THEN WHEN I WENT TO SEE DONALD TRUMP IN HIS PRIMARY RALLY IN NEW ORLEANS, I SAW THE MATCH THAT LIT THE KINDLING. THEY SEE IN HIM SOMEONE WHO RECOGNIZES THEIR SENSE OF LOSS AND DISCOURAGEMENT AND SOMEONE WHO IS GOING TO RESCUE THEM, ALMOST IN A SECULAR RAPTURE.

>> Brown: SO WHERE DOES THIS ALL LEAVE YOU, PERSONALLY AND IN THINKING ABOUT THE COUNTRY?

>> I THINK IT LEADS ME TO REALIZE THAT WE HAVE A JOB TO DO TO HEAL THIS BIG DIVIDE. AND THAT IT'S A VERY IMPORTANT THING FOR US TO DO IT AT THIS POLITICAL MOMENT.

>> Brown: IS IT DOABLE?

>> IT IS DOABLE. IT LEAVES ME OPTIMISTIC BECAUSE, FOR EXAMPLE, THERE ARE CROSSOVER ISSUES. I HEARD MANY PEOPLE SAY, LET'S GET MONEY OUT OF POLITICS. I THOUGHT, WELL, THE TWO SIDES CAN AGREE ON THAT. LET'S CLEAN UP THIS ENVIRONMENT FOR REAL. AND TWO SIDES CAN AGREE ON THAT. LET'S LOWER PRISON POPULATIONS. TWO SIDES CAN AGREE ON THAT. LET'S STOP INSULTING EACH OTHER. AND REALLY GET TO KNOW PEEP. HAVE A FEW BEERS AND GO ON A FISHING TRIP, AND YOU'LL FIND A FRIEND WHO WON'T SEE THE WORLD THE WAY YOU DO, BUT YOU CAN HAVE A REALLY GOOD CONVERSATION ABOUT IT.

>> Brown: THE BOOK IS "STRANGERS IN THEIR OWN LAND." ARLIE RUSSELL HOCHSCHILD, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Woodruff: TUNE IN LATER THIS EVENING ON PBS FOR THE FINAL EPISODE OF "THE CONTENDERS-- 16 FOR '16," WHICH HAS FOCUSED ON THE DIFFERENT STRATEGIES USED BY FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES OVER THE YEARS AS THEY TRY TO WIN THE WHITE HOUSE. TONIGHT'S FEATURES THE CAMPAIGN OF PRESIDENT OBAMA, AND THAT OF HIS PREDECESSOR, PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH. HERE'S A LOOK.

>> GEORGE W. BUSH DIFFERED FROM HIS FATHER IN A NUMBER OF WAYS. HE DIFFERED FROM HIM IN BEING MORE CONSERVATIVE. HIS FATHER HAD BEEN FROM CONNECTICUT. HE WAS RAISED IN TEXAS, AND HE REALLY PLAYED THAT UP. YOU KNOW, HE HAD THE COWBOY BOOTS.

>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE STORIES OF THE BUSH FAMILY, HE WAS NOT THE ONE WHO WAS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE WHITE HOUSE. JEB WAS SEEN AS MORE CREDIBLE. JEB WAS SEEN AS MAYBE SMARTER.

>> THE WHOLE FAMILY TOOK THE 1992 LOSS INCREDIBLY HARD.

>> WE HAVE A WHOLE RUN OF PRESIDENTIAL PROJECTIONS FOR YOU. THEY ALL BELONG TO BILL CLINTON. HE HAS PASSED THE MAGIC NUMBER OF 270.

>> I, WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON, DO SOLEMNLY SWEAR...

>> THEY HAD TO REDEEM THE FAMILY NAME THROUGH WINNING ANOTHER ELECTION. OF COURSE, THE GREAT QUESTION BECAME WHETHER IT WAS GOING TO BE JEB OR GEORGE W.

>> PEOPLE ASK ME, WHY DO YOU THINK YOU CAN WIN IOWA. I THINK IF WE'RE IN A CLOSE RACE, THESE KIDS ARE GOING TO WIN IT. THEY THINK THEY'RE CHANGING THE WORLD.

>> THE GOOD NEWS IS I THINK THEY ARE.

>> THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES...

>> WHAT LED ME TO BELIEVE HE COULD WIN THE NOMINATION WAS THE SPEECH IN DES MOINES, THE JEFFERSON-JACKSON DAY DINNER SPEECH. YOU COULD JUST SEE THE CROWD REACTING TO THIS.

>> I DON'T WANT TO PIT RED AMERICA AGAINST BLUE AMERICA. I WANT TO BE THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. [CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]

>> Woodruff: "THE CONTENDERS-- 16 FOR 16" AIRS TONIGHT ON MOST PBS STATIONS. AND TUNE IN LATER TONIGHT, ON CHARLIE ROSE: PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN JON MEECHAM. AND THAT'S THE NEWSHOUR FOR TONIGHT. I'M JUDY WOODRUFF. JOIN US ONLINE AND AGAIN HERE TOMORROW EVENING. FOR ALL OF US AT THE PBS NEWSHOUR, THANK YOU AND GOOD NIGHT.

>> MAJOR FUNDING FOR THE PBS NEWSHOUR HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY:

>> THE FORD FOUNDATION. WORKING WITH VISIONARIES ON THE FRONTLINES OF SOCIAL CHANGE WORLDWIDE.

>> CARNEGIE CORPORATION OF NEW YORK. SUPPORTING INNOVATIONS IN EDUCATION, DEMOCRATIC ENGAGEMENT, AND THE ADVANCEMENT OF INTERNATIONAL PEACE AND SECURITY. AT carnegie.org.

>> AND WITH THE ONGOING SUPPORT OF THESE INSTITUTIONS AND INDIVIDUALS.

>> THIS PROGRAM WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING. AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU. THANK YOU.

>> THE PBS "NEWSHOUR," YOUR HOME FOR POLITICS.

>> THIS IS NOT SOMETHING YOU COULD SUPPORT.

>> YOU WANT THE PAINT IN BOLD COLORS.

>> REPORTING FROM AROUND THE WORLD. SO WHY IS THIS PLACE SUCH A CROSSROADS? STORIES WITH IMPACT THAT INSPIRE AND ENGAGE, ON HEALTH, MAKING ECONOMIC SENSE, EDUCATION, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, AND THE ARTS. EVERY NIGHT ON PBS. Captioning sponsored by NEWSHOUR PRODUCTIONS, LLC Captioned by Media Access Group at WGBH access.wgbh.org ♪ >>> THIS IS "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT," WITH TYLER MATHISEN AND SUE HERERA. >>> NOVEMBER NERVES. A TIGHTENING PRESIDENTIAL RACE AND A BED MEETING PUT INVESTORS ON EDGE TODAY, AS A MONTH GETS OFF TO A ROCKY START. >>> HIGH GEAR. THE AUTO INDUSTRY REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NEAR-RECORD SALES THIS YEAR. >>> AND OPEN ENROLLMENT. WHY ONE HEALTH INSURANCE STARTUP SEES OPPORTUNITIES, NOT OBSTACLES IN THE OBAMACARE EXCHANGES. THOSE STORIES AND MORE TONIGHT ON "NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT" FOR TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 1st. >>> GOOD EVENING, EVERYONE. AND WELCOME. I'M TYLER MATHISEN. SUE HERERA IS OFF TONIGHT. >>> WELL, MAYBE IT'S THE ELECTION, AND THAT TIGHTENING PRESIDENTIAL RACE. OR MAYBE IT'S THIS WEEK'S FED MEETING, AND THE PROSPECT OF HIGH I