PBS NewsHour; August 29, 2014 3:00pm-4:00pm PDT

Captioning sponsored by MacNEIL/LEHRER PRODUCTIONS

>> Sreenivasan: THE EBOLA OUTBREAK HAS WIDENED IN EAST AFRICA AS SENEGAL CONFIRMED IT'S FIRST CASE TODAY. AND A NEW REPORT TRACED THE ORIGINS OF THE EBOLA OUTBREAK TO A SINGLE FUNERAL IN GUINEA LAST MAY. GOOD EVENING. I'M HARI SREENIVASAN. JUDY IS OFF TONIGHT. ALSO AHEAD, WE WRAP UP OUR WEEKLONG SERIES ON RETHINKING COLLEGE. MORE AND MORE STATES ACROSS THE COUNTRY ARE TYING THEIR PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES' FUNDING LEVELS TO GRADUATION RATES. WE WENT TO TENNESSEE WHERE THIS PRACTICE BEGAN.

>> IT'S TRYING TO FIND WAYS TO GET SCHOOLS TO RESPOND TO INCENTIVES THE SAME WAY PEOPLE RESPOND TO INCENTIVES. AS A PROFESSOR, I DON'T GRADE STUDENTS WHEN THEY SHOW UP THE FIRST DAY OF CLASS; I WAIT AND SEE HOW THEY PERFORM THROUGHOUT THE SEMESTER, AND THEN I EVALUATE THEM.

>> Sreenivasan: AND IT'S FRIDAY. MARK SHIELDS AND DAVID BROOKS ARE HERE TO ANALYZE THE WEEK'S NEWS. THOSE ARE JUST SOME OF THE STORIES WE'RE COVERING ON TONIGHT'S PBS NEWSHOUR.

>> MAJOR FUNDING FOR THE PBS NEWSHOUR HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY: ♪ ♪ MOVING OUR ECONOMY FOR 160 YEARS. BNSF, THE ENGINE THAT CONNECTS US.

>> I'VE BEEN AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO RECOGNIZE THE PEOPLE WHO ARE OUT THERE OWNING IT. THE ONES GETTING INVOLVED, STAYING ENGAGED. THEY ARE NOT AFRAID TO QUESTION THE PATH THEY'RE ON. BECAUSE THE ONE QUESTION THEY NEVER WANT TO ASK IS, "HOW DID I END UP HERE?" I STARTED SCHWAB WITH THOSE PEOPLE. PEOPLE WHO WANT TO TAKE OWNERSHIP OF THEIR INVESTMENTS, LIKE THEY DO IN EVERY OTHER ASPECT OF THEIR LIVES.

>> AND WITH THE ONGOING SUPPORT OF THESE INSTITUTIONS

>> THIS PROGRAM WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING. AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU. THANK YOU.

>> Sreenivasan: REBELS IN UKRAINE CONSOLIDATED A NEW CONQUEST TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN REMAINED DEFIANT AMID CHARGES AND COUNTERCHARGES OVER RUSSIA'S ROLE IN THE REBEL OFFENSIVE. THE BORDER CROSSING BETWEEN NOVOAZOVSK, UKRAINE, AND RUSSIA WAS QUIET TODAY. IT'S NOW UNDER THE CONTROL OF PRO-RUSSIAN SEPARATISTS. IN THE PAST 72 HOURS, THE PORT TOWN HAS BECOME A NEW FRONT IN THE ONGOING WAR FOR CONTROL OF EASTERN UKRAINE. THE REBELS CLAIM NO RUSSIANS ARE HELPING THEM, DESPITE UKRAINIAN CLAIMS THAT RUSSIAN TROOPS HAVE INVADED.

>> ( translated ): IT IS THE UKRAINIAN AUTHORITIES FIGHTING AGAINST THEIR OWN PEOPLE. THEY ARE KILLING THEIR OWN CIVILIANS. THERE ARE NO RUSSIANS HERE, THERE IS NO RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT COMING THROUGH HERE. WE ARE FIGHTING WITH THE MACHINERY THEY THEMSELVES ABANDON. THEY JUST DUMP THEM AND FLEE.

>> Sreenivasan: NATO HAD SAID SATELLITE IMAGES PROVED RUSSIA HAS 1,000 SOLDIERS AND HEAVY WEAPONRY INSIDE UKRAINE, BUT TODAY RUSSIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER REJECTED THE ALLEGATIONS.

>> ( translated ): IT'S NOT THE FIRST TIME THAT WE HEAR ALL SORTS OF CONJECTURE, AND NOT ONCE HAVE ANY FACTS BEEN PRESENTED TO US. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS THAT THERE ARE PHOTOGRAPHS FROM SPACE SHOWING MOVEMENTS OF RUSSIAN TROOPS, BUT AS IT TURNED OUT IT WAS COMPUTER GAMES AND THE IMAGES WERE TAKEN FROM THERE.

>> Sreenivasan: THAT DREW A SHARP RESPONSE FROM NATO'S SECRETARY GENERAL, ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN, IN BRUSSELS.

>> THIS IS A BLATANT VIOLATION OF UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY. IT DEFIES ALL DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS FOR A PEACEFUL SOLUTION.

>> Sreenivasan: UKRAINE IS NOT A MEMBER OF NATO, BUT MANY OF THE COUNTRIES IT BORDERS ARE. NOW, THE UKRAINIAN PRIME MINISTER SAYS HIS GOVERNMENT WANTS TO JOIN THEM.

>> ( translated ): THE GOVERNMENT OF UKRAINE WILL BRING BEFORE PARLIAMENT A LAW TO SCRAP THE NON-ALIGNED STATUS OF THE UKRAINIAN STATE AND ESTABLISH A COURSE TOWARDS MEMBERSHIP OF NATO.

>> Sreenivasan: BACK IN RUSSIA, AT A YOUTH CAMP, PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN WARNED, "IT'S BEST NOT TO MESS WITH US," AND HE RATCHETED UP HIS RHETORIC AGAINST UKRAINE.

>> ( translated ): BOTH SMALL VILLAGES AND LARGE CITIES ARE SURROUNDED BY THE UKRAINIAN ARMY, WHICH IS DIRECTLY HITTING RESIDENTIAL AREAS WITH THE AIM YOU KNOW, IT SADLY REMINDS ME OF THE EVENTS OF THE SECOND WORLD WAR WHEN GERMAN NAZIS, THE GERMAN FASCIST ARMY, SURROUNDED OUR CITIES, LIKE LENINGRAD.

>> Sreenivasan: MEANWHILE, FOREIGN MINISTERS FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION MET IN MILAN, ITALY, AMID CALLS FOR NEW SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA. AND THE HUMAN TOLL KEPT GROWING. THE UNITED NATIONS REPORTED NEARLY 2,600 PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED IN EASTERN UKRAINE THROUGH AUGUST 27. LEADERS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION NATIONS MEET TOMORROW. THEY'VE INVITED THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE TO ADDRESS THE SUMMIT. THE WHITE HOUSE TODAY DEFENDED PRESIDENT OBAMA'S STATEMENT THAT THERE'S NO STRATEGY YET ON HOW TO DEAL WITH "ISLAMIC STATE" FORCES IN SYRIA. PRESS SECRETARY JOSH EARNEST SAID MR. OBAMA WANTS AN OVERALL PLAN, INCLUDING A MILITARY COMPONENT. HE SAID THE PRESIDENT IS WAITING FOR THE PENTAGON TO SHOW HIM OPTIONS.

>> THERE ARE SOME WHO PROBABLY WOULD MAKE THE CASE THAT IT IS OKAY TO NOT HAVE A FORMULATED COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY, BUT JUST AS ONE PUNDIT I KNOW RECENTLY SUGGESTED THAT WE COULD JUST GO DROP SOME BOMBS AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS. THAT IS NOT WHAT THE PRESIDENT BELIEVES IS A SMART APPROACH. THE PRESIDENT BELIEVES IT IS IMPORTANT FOR US TO PURSUE A COMPREHENSIVE STRATEGY WHERE MILITARY ACTION IS ONE COMPONENT OF THAT STRATEGY.

>> Sreenivasan: ON ANOTHER MATTER, THE WHITE HOUSE SAID IT'S NOT AWARE OF ANY SPECIFIC THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES BY "ISLAMIC STATE" MILITANTS, BUT BRITAIN RAISED ITS THREAT LEVEL TODAY TO THE SECOND HIGHEST ALERT OVER CONCERNS OF POSSIBLE ATTACKS. PRIME MINISTER DAVID CAMERON SAID IT'S LARGELY A RESPONSE TO THE GROWING NUMBER OF BRITONS AND OTHER WESTERNERS JOINING RADICAL ISLAMIST GROUPS IN THE MIDDLE EAST. CALIFORNIA LAWMAKERS ARE THE FIRST TO PASS A BILL THAT REDEFINES WHAT IT MEANS TO GIVE SEXUAL CONSENT ON COLLEGE CAMPUSES. THE SO-CALLED "YES MEANS YES" BILL, WHICH PASSED UNANIMOUSLY IN THE STATE'S SENATE, REQUIRES SCHOOLS TO TREAT CONSENT AS AN AFFIRMATIVE AND VOLUNTARY CHOICE. SILENCE OR LACK OF RESISTANCE WOULD NOT QUALIFY AS CONSENT. WALL STREET CLOSED OUT THE MONTH OF AUGUST WITH MODEST ADDITIONS TODAY. THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE GAINED NEARLY 19 POINTS TO CLOSE AT 17,098; THE NASDAQ ROSE 22 POINTS TO CLOSE AT 4,580; AND THE S&P 500 ADDED SIX POINTS TO FINISH AT 2,003. FOR THE MONTH, THE DOW GAINED MORE THAN 3%, THE S&P GAINED NEARLY 4% AND THE NASDAQ ROSE ALMOST 5%. STILL TO COME ON THE NEWSHOUR: A NEW REPORT TRACES THE ORIGINS OF THIS LATEST EBOLA OUTBREAK; WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE PROXY WARS SHAKING UP THE MIDDLE EAST; TENNESSEE LOOKS TO BOOST COLLEGE GRADUATION RATES BY RETHINKING ITS FUNDING MODEL; SYRIAN REFUGEE NUMBERS TOP THREE MILLION, WITH NO END IN SIGHT TO THE CRISIS; SHIELDS AND BROOKS ON THE WEEK'S NEWS; AND TEENS REACT TO THE MICHAEL BROWN SHOOTING AND ITS AFTERMATH.

>> Sreenivasan: THE EBOLA OUTBREAK IN WEST AFRICA HAS NOW SPREAD TO A FIFTH COUNTRY AMID FORECASTS THAT IT WILL GET FAR WORSE. THE LATEST CASE EMERGED DESPITE EFFORTS TO STOP THE VIRUS FROM CROSSING NATIONAL BORDERS. THE ANNOUNCEMENT CAME IN DAKAR, SENEGAL, A MAJOR TOURIST DESTINATION AND TRANSIT HUB THAT NOW HAS ITS FIRST CASE OF EBOLA.

>> ( translated ): IT IS A YOUNG GUINEAN, A STUDENT WHO CAME FOR A CONSULTATION ON TUESDAY, AUGUST 26, AT THE HOSPITAL IN AN INFECTIOUS STATE WITHOUT HEMORRHAGING, BUT HIDING THE INFORMATION THAT HE HAD CONTACT IN GUINEA WITH PEOPLE CLOSE TO THE VICTIMS OF THE DISEASE.

>> Sreenivasan: DOCTORS CONFIRMED THE NEXT DAY THAT THE MAN HAD EBOLA. HE'S NOW IN SATISFACTORY CONDITION. NEARLY 650 PEOPLE IN HIS HOME COUNTRY OF GUINEA HAVE BEEN INFECTED, AND TWO-THIRDS HAVE DIED. THAT'S THE WORST DEATH RATE OF ANY COUNTRY. A NEW REPORT IN "SCIENCE" MAGAZINE TRACES THE OUTBREAK TO A FUNERAL ON GUINEA'S BORDER WITH SIERRA LEONE IN MAY. AT LEAST 14 WOMEN WERE INFECTED THERE. FIVE LOCAL RESEARCHERS WHO WORKED ON THE PAPER AND COLLECTED SAMPLES FROM INFECTED PATIENTS HAVE SINCE DIED OF EBOLA THEMSELVES. IN ALL, THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION REPORTS 500 NEW CASES THIS WEEK, THE MOST YET. THE DIRECTOR OF THE U.S. CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL SAYS IT COULD GET MUCH WORSE STILL. HE SPOKE YESTERDAY IN SIERRA LEONE.

>> IF WE DON'T STOP IT HERE, WE'RE GOING TO BE DEALING WITH IT FOR YEARS AROUND THE WORLD. BUT WE CAN STILL STOP IT.

>> Sreenivasan: AND A TOP OFFICIAL WITH DOCTORS WITHOUT BORDERS CALLED TODAY FOR A FAR GREATER INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE. OTHERWISE, HE SAID: "I DON'T SEE HOW WE'RE GOING TO CONTROL THE OUTBREAK." FOR MORE ON ALL THIS, I AM JOINED BY STEPHEN GIRE. HE IS A RESEARCH SCIENTIST WITH THE BROAD INSTITUTE AND HARVARD UNIVERSITY, AND A LEAD AUTHOR ON THE STUDY PUBLISHED YESTERDAY IN "SCIENCE." SO, STEPHEN, TELL ME, HOW WAS IT THAT YOU WERE ABLE TO GO BACK AND TRACE THIS SPREAD OF THE MOST RECENT CASE OF EBOLA VIRUS TO ONE SPECIFIC EVENT?

>> WE USED BOTH EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA WHICH IS DATA THAT'S COLLECTED ABOUT PEOPLE AND WHO THEY'RE IN CONTACT WITH WHEN A DISEASE HAPPENS, AND COMPARED THIS WITH GENETIC DATA WE COLLECTED FROM PATIENT SAMPLES AND WE ACTUALLY SEQUENCED THE FULL GENOME OF THE VIRUS FROM 78 INDIVIDUAL PATIENTS AND, SO, WE USED THIS DATA AND THE MUTATIONS THAT ARE THERE WITHIN THAT VIRUS TO ACTUALLY BUILD THE SORT OF FAMILY TREE THAT ALLOWS US TO SEE, FOR ONE, HOW THESE VIRUSES ARE RELATED TO EACH OTHER BUT THEN TO SEE HOW WE CAN TRACE THEM BACK TO THEIR ORIGIN.

>> Sreenivasan: WHEN YOU GOT TO THE ROOT OF THIS PARTICULAR TREE, WHAT IS IT ABOUT A FUNERAL OR AFRICAN BURIAL CUSTOMS THAT MADE THIS THE PERFECT GROUND FOR EBOLA TO SPREAD?

>> ON MAY 25th IN SIERRA LEONE ON THE BORDER BETWEEN GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE, THERE'S A FUNERAL THAT TOOK PLACE OF A TRADITIONAL HEALER WHO HAD BEEN TREATING EBOLA PATIENTS IN GUINEA AND SHE HAD HERSELF BECOME SICK AND DIED OF EBOLA. AT THIS FUNERAL A LARGE NUMBER OF OVER A DOZEN MEMBERS AT THE FUNERAL WERE ACTUALLY INFECTED. YOU NOTICE FROM EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA, BUT WE ALSO KNOW AN ATTENDANT FROM THE FUNERAL ACTUALLY CAME INTO THE HOSPITAL AT THE GOVERNMENT HOSPITAL WHERE WE WORK AND WAS DIAGNOSED, SO WE WERE THEN ABLE TO GO OUT AND FIND OTHER PEOPLE AT THAT FUNERAL AND THEN START TO BUILD THIS PHYLOGENETIC OR FAMILY TREE OF WHAT THE VIRUS ACTUALLY LOOKED LIKE.

>> Sreenivasan: IS IT BECAUSE PEOPLE COME IN CONTACT WITH THE BOD WITH THAT'S INFECTED?

>> THAT'S CORRECT. YOU KNOW, THE BURIAL PRACTICES IN A LOT OF AFRICAN COUNTRIES, THE PEOPLE OR THE FRIENDS OR FAMILY THAT KNOW TH KNOW THE DED PERSON USUALLY TAKE PART IN PREPARING THE BODY AND WASHING IT. JUST LIKE FUNERALS HERE IN AMERICA AND AROUND THE WORLD, WE OFTEN INTERACT WITH THE BODY ONCE IT'S DIED. THERE ARE OPEN-CASKET VIEWINGS AND MANY PEOPLE TOUCH THE BODY. THE SAME THING IS TRUE IN AFRICA AS WELL AND THIS CAN BE PART OF SPREADING THE DISEASE.

>> Sreenivasan: ONE OF THE MOST SERIOUS COSTS OF THE PAPER IS FIVE OF YOUR COLLEAGUES ON THE GROUND BECAME SICK AND DIED IN THE WORK THAT THEY WERE DOING.

>> YEAH, IT'S REALLY VERY TRAGIC. I WAS ON THE GROUND IN SIERRA LEONE AND KENIMA IN EARLY JULY AND AS SOON AS I RETURNED AND BEGAN PROCESSING THE SAMPLES WE COLLECTED FOR THE STUDY, WE GOT WORD A FEW OF THE MEMBERS WHO HAD BEEN PART OF THIS PROJECT HAD BECOME SICK. AT THAT TIME, IT WAS SORT OF NUMBING AND YOU DIDN'T QUITE ACCEPT THE FACT THAT THEY WERE SICK AND YOU HAD HOPE THAT THEY'D SURVIVE. SO YOU KEPT PUSHING AND DOING YOUR WORK AND, YOU KNOW, THEN WORD WOULD COME THAT SOMEBODY HAD DIED AND IT WOULD JUST SINK IN DEEP. BUT, YOU KNOW, JUST AS HARD AS PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WORKING ON THE GROUND, WE HAVE ALSO BEEN TRYING TO WORK VERY HARD HERE TO TRY TO GET THIS INFORMATION OUT TO THE PUBLIC, OUT TO THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY SO THAT IT CAN BE USED IN THIS OUTBREAK AND OTHER OUTBREAKS. SO WE'VE REALLY TRIED TO HONOR THEIR MEMORY BY CONTINUING TO WORK REALLY HARD AND PUSH THIS INFORMATION OUT SO THAT IT MAKES A DIFFERENCE.

>> Sreenivasan: ALL RIGHT, STEPHEN GIRE, THANKS SO MUCH FOR YOUR TIME AND YOUR RESEARCH.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Sreenivasan: AS THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION CONSIDERS FURTHER ACTION WITH PARTNERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST TO CONTAIN AN ISLAMIC EXTREMIST GROUP, TONIGHT WE TAKE A LOOK AT THE SHIFTING LANDSCAPE OF THE REGION AND THE CHALLENGES IT POSES FOR THE UNITED STATES. JEFFREY BROWN REPORTS.

>> ANY SUCCESSFUL STRATEGY, THOUGH, NEEDS STRONG REGIONAL PARTNERS.

>> Brown: PRESIDENT OBAMA CALLED FOR ALLIANCES YESTERDAY IN CONFRONTING THE "ISLAMIC STATE" GROUP IN IRAQ AND SYRIA.

>> I'M ENCOURAGED SO FAR THAT COUNTRIES IN THE REGION, COUNTRIES THAT DON'T ALWAYS AGREE ON MANY THINGS, INCREASINGLY RECOGNIZE THE PRIMACY OF THE THREAT. I'VE ASKED SECRETARY KERRY TO TRAVEL TO THE REGION TO CONTINUE TO BUILD THE COALITION THAT'S NEEDED TO MEET THIS THREAT.

>> Brown: BUT WHEN KERRY TOUCHES DOWN IN THE MIDDLE EAST, HE'LL BE STEPPING INTO A PROFOUNDLY MUDDLED SITUATION THAT'S RIFE WITH RISK. OLD REGIMES HAVE FALLEN, STARTING WITH THE U.S. INVASION OF IRAQ IN 2003 AND SPREADING ACROSS NORTH AFRICA WITH THE ARAB SPRING. IN THEIR WAKE, BOTH SUNNI AND SHIITE GROUPS, FROM MODERATE REBELS TO THE EXTREME "ISLAMIC STATE," NOW VIE FOR POWER AND LOOK TO LIKE-MINDED STATES FOR HELP. ILLUSTRATING THE TANGLED WEB OF NEW TIES, THE LIBERAL BLOG "THINK PROGRESS" HAS CHARTED THE FLOW OF MONEY, WEAPONS AND AID BETWEEN VARIOUS FACTIONS AND SUPPORTING NATIONS. IN SYRIA, FOR EXAMPLE, REGIONAL POWERS QATAR, SAUDI ARABIA AND TURKEY HAVE BACKED THE FREE SYRIAN ARMY AGAINST BASHAR AL- ASSAD'S GOVERNMENT. ON THE OTHER SIDE, ASSAD'S FIGHTERS HAVE BEEN HELPED BY HEZBOLLAH, THE LEBANESE MILITIA ALLIED WITH IRAN. ELSEWHERE, EGYPT IN RECENT DAYS PARTNERED WITH THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES FOR AIR STRIKES ON ISLAMIST MILITIAS IN LIBYA. THAT COUNTRY'S CONFLICT HAS REVEALED A SUNNI SPLIT AS TURKEY AND QATAR BACK THE ISLAMISTS. AND IRANIAN OFFICIALS WERE IN BAGHDAD SUNDAY FOR TALKS AIMED AT STABILIZING IRAQ AGAINST THE "ISLAMIC STATE'S" GAINS, A RARE INTERSECTION OF INTERESTS WITH THE UNITED STATES. JOINING US NOW TO HELP US UNDERSTAND THIS NEW LANDSCAPE OF THE MIDDLE EAST IS: STEVEN SIMON, A FORMER SENIOR DIRECTOR FOR MIDDLE EASTERN AND NORTH AFRICAN AFFAIRS ON THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL STAFF FROM 2011 TO 2012-- HE'S NOW A SENIOR FELLOW AT THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE; AND HISHAM MELHEM, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF OF AL- ARABIYA NEWS CHANNEL. WELCOME TO BOTH OF YOU. HISHAM, IT'S A GIVEN, THE WORLD HAS CHANGED, RIGHT? HELP US FIRST BY LAYING OUT THE CAMPS, SO TO SPEAK, THAT WE FACE.

>> AS WE KNOW, THE UPRISING THAT BEGAN THREE AND A HALF YEARS AGO UNFORTUNATELY HAVE MORPHED INTO CIVIL WARS IN YEMEN, LIBYA AND SIR. I CAN'T SYRIA IS A PLACE WHERE THERE IS A CONVERSION OF POWERS. THE CAMPS SO TO SPEAK, THE REGIME IN DAMASCUS WHICH IS ISLAM SUPPORTED BY IRAN WHICH IS THE MAJOR REGION OF SHIITE POWER AS WELL AS BY HEZBOLLAH -- HEZBOLLAH'S WORKING FOR CERTAIN IRANIAN INTERESTS AND ALSO SUPPORTED BY MILITIAS FROM IRAQ. SO YOU HAVE THE SHIA COALITION FIGHTING TO SAVE THE REGIME IN DAMASCUS AND IN THAT SENSE IRAN AND SYRIA ARE MORE IMPORTANT IN SUPPORTING THE REGIME T MOS COWS. THEN YOU HAVE SUNNIS FROM TURKEY, JORDAN, SAUDI ARABIA, QATAR AND OTHERS. ATTRACTING VOLUNTEERS, QUOTE, UNQUOTE, FROM THE SUNNI WORLD FROM AFRICA, THE CAUCUSES, FROM CENTRAL ASIA AS WELL AS FROM EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE 20th CENTURY PROTOTYPE CIVIL WAR WITH SPAIN IN WHICH EVERYBODY IN EUROPE FOUGHT EACH OTHER ON SPANISH SOIL AND ATTRACTED VOLUNTEERS FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD. SYRIA IS ESSENTIALLY OUR OWN VERSION OF THE SPANISH CIVIL WAR.

>> Brown: STEVEN SIMON, THAT'S COMPLICATED ENOUGH. YOU SEE IT PLAYING OUT ALL OVER THE PLACE, SYRIA AS A FOCAL POINT BUT ALSO WHERE.

>> WELL, YEAH, SYRIA HAS BECOME A HOT PIT FOR SOME OF THE RIVALRIES HISHAM WAS JUST TALKING ABOUT, BUT THE CAMPS CAN BE VIEWED, LIKEWISE, AS CO CONSISTING OF IRAN AND SAUDI ARABIA, SORT OF AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL, I GUESS, AND THEN, WITHIN THE SUNNIS, YOU HAVE QATAR AND TURKEY ARRAYED AGAINST SAUDI ARABIA AND THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES AND EVEN EGYPT. THEN YOU HAVE A TACIT ALLIANCE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE CONSERVATIVE GROWTH MONARCHIES DIRECTED AGAINST IRAN, AND BOOSTING EGYPT. SO YOU HAVE ALL THIS OVERLAID ON A SUNNI AND SHIA SECTARIAN CONFLICT THAT'S BEEN LARGELY MOBILIZED BY THESE BIGGER GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS.

>> Brown: ARE THESE SHIFTING, STILL, AS WE SIT HERE OR ARE THESE PRETTY WELL NOW SET AT THIS POINT?

>> THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION. I THINK THEY'VE PRETTY MUCH CONSOLIDATED.

>> Brown: WHAT DO YOU THINK? I THINK SO. I THINK THE SUNNI-SHIA CONFLICT, WHICH IS REALLY NEW -- THE FIRST TIME IN MY LIFETIME IN MODERN ARAB, RECENT HISTORY WHERE YOU HAVE ONE FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE GULF TO THE MEDITERRANEAN. AT THE SAME TIME, THERE IS A NEW SUNNI SHIFT AND DIVISIONS, AND YOU HAVE THE IRAQI WHICH IS BREATH TAKING, THEN A COUNTRY FLYING ITS OWN JETS TO EGYPT TO LAUNCH AN AIRSTRIKES AGAINST ISLAMISTS IN LIBYA.

>> Brown: WITHOUT TELLING THE U.S.

>> SO YOU HAVE THE CAMP OF EGYPT, THAT'S ANOTHER SUNNI CAMP, EGYPT, SAUDI ARABIA AGAINST THE ISLAMISTS. ON THE OTHER HAND, QATAR, TURKEY AND SUDAN SUPPORTING THE LIBYAN ISLAMISTS IN LIBYA AND OTHER PLACES. SO YOU HAVE TWO SUNNI CAMPS UNDER THIS HUGE SHIA-SUNNI RIVALRY. AND BECAUSE OF SECTARIAN RIVALRY BETWEEN THE SAUDIS AND THE IRANIANS AND SUPPORTERS ARE EXTREMELY COMBUSTIBLE BECAUSE SECTARIANISM IS A VERY EFFECTIVE TOOL AND ORGANIZATION BECAUSE YOU CAN FRAME THE ISSUE IN EXISTENTIAL TERMS.

>> Brown: SO WHEN WE SEE THE PRESIDENT SPEAKING YESTERDAY AND THE SECRETARY GOING, HOW DOES THIS IMPACT U.S. POLICY? THAT'S A BIG QUESTION. HOW DOES IT IMPACT KERRY'S ABILITY TO FORM A KOHL'S AGAINST THE ISLAMIC STATE?

>> COMPLICATES IT HUGELY. THE UNITED STATES IS TRYING TO THREAD A NEEDLE BETWEEN STATES THAT ARE FUNDAMENTALLY OPPOSED TO ASSAD AND STATES THAT THINK THAT HE'S ACTUALLY A GOOD STABILIZING FORCE. NOW, IN TERMS OF EUROPEAN PARTNERS TO WHICH HE'S APPEALED, THERE'S VERY LITTLE THAT THEY CAN CONTRIBUTE AS A PRACTICAL MATTER, MILITARILY, FOR EXAMPLE. THEY CAN MAKE SOME CONTRIBUTIONS BUT NOT REALLY FOR THE USE OF FORCE. OTHERWISE, YOU KNOW, HE'S DEALING WITH COUNTRIES THAT DISAGREE ON THE ROLE OF THE ACTUAL GOVERNMENT IN BAGHDAD IN TERMS OF SPURRING THE REVOLT IN IRAQ THAT THE UNITED STATES IS NOW TRYING TO TAMP DOWN. AND THE ADMINISTRATION HAS ALSO GOT TO PONDER THE CONSEQUENCES OF TRYING TO CUT OFF I.S.I.S. SAFE HAVEN IN SYRIA AND ATTACK TARGETS THERE BECAUSE THE FARTHER WEST THEY GO THE MORE LIKELY THEY WILL BE SEEN AS ASSAD'S AIR FORCE AND INTERVENING IN THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR AT LONG LAST BUT ON THE SIDE OF THE REGIME WHICH WILL ANGER SOME OF ITS VERY CLOSE ALLIES.

>> WELL, YEAH. I MEAN, YOU'VE ARGUED WHEN WE'VE HAD THESE DISCUSSIONS BEFORE FOR A MORE FORCEFUL U.S. ROLE.

>> NOTHING SIGNATURE IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE MIDDLE EAST TODAY WITHOUT CLEAR-CUT, DEFENSIVE LEADERSHIP ROLE.

>> DOES THAT ENTAIL PICKING ONE? YES, WE HAVE TO PICK ONE. ALL THWE HAVE TO HAVE LEADERSHI. I'M NOT ASKING FOR AMERICAN BOOTS ON THE GROUND, BUT LEADERSHIP, PREVENTING QATAR FROM HELPING I.S.I.S. IN SYRIA, WORK ON A COALITION THAT INCLUDES THE LIKE-MINDED SPIRITS OR STRATEGIC PARTNERS AND TAKE A DECISIVE ROLE. THE PROBLEM IS LACK OF AMERICAN LEADERSHIP. WHY WOULD U.A.E., A SIMPLE STATE, GO TO AFRICA, A DIFFERENT CONTINENT, AND DO WHAT THEY DID LAST WEEK IF THEY'RE NOT CONVINCED THERE IS NO MIDDLE EASTERN LEADERSHIP? THEY TELL YOU, WE DON'T THINK THE PRESIDENT IS ASSERTIVE ENOUGH, WHETHER HE WAITED TOO LONG IN SYRIA HE DIDN'T GET RID OF MALIKI I RECALLLY ON, DIDN'T PUSH IRAN HARD ENOUGH IN SYRIA AND OTHER PLACES.

>> Brown: WE HAVE ABOUT 30 SECONDS. DO YOU SEE THAT STRONG A ROLE FOR THE U.S., THE ABILITY TO DO IT?

>> I THINK YOU HAVE TO ACCEPT THE FACT THAT THERE'S A SERIOUS DIFFERENCE OF VIEW ON HOW TO DEAL WITH SOME OF THESE MAJOR PROBLEMS BOTH WITH RESPECT TO ISLAMISM IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND THE CONFLICT IN SYRIA. DIFFERENCES ARE VIEWED BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND ITS ALLIES THAT MAY NOT BE RECONCILABLE. AND IF THEY'RE NOT, THEN THE U.S. AND ITS ALLIES ARE GOING TO BE PROCEEDING ON DIFFERENT PATHS. WHEN THAT HAPPENS, SOME WILL SAY, WELL, IT'S LACK OF LEADERSHIP. OTHERS WILL SAY, SOMETIMES YOU CAN'T ALWAYS GET WHAT YOU WANT.

>> Brown: ALL RIGHT. ON THAT, STEVEN SIMON, HISHAM MELHEM, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

>> Sreenivasan: NOW, OUR FINAL REPORT IN OUR WEEKLONG SERIES ON "RETHINKING COLLEGE." TONIGHT, WE LOOK AT A FUNDING MODEL USED BY MORE AND MORE STATES FOR THEIR PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES. IT'S ALL OUTCOME-BASED. THE INSTITUTIONS RECEIVE FUNDING BASED SOLELY ON THEIR GRADUATION RATES. ♪

>> Sreenivasan: FOUR YEARS AGO, EDUCATORS IN TENNESSEE BECAME ALARMED BY A TROUBLING STATISTIC.

>> CANDIDATES PLEASE RISE...

>> Sreenivasan: ONLY 51% OF STUDENTS ENROLLED AT THE STATE'S PUBLIC UNIVERSITIES ACTUALLY GRADUATED. THE DISTURBINGLY HIGH DROPOUT RATE RAISED QUESTIONS ABOUT HIGHER EDUCATION. IS A PUBLIC INSTITUTION REALLY SUCCESSFUL IF ONLY HALF ITS STUDENTS EVER GRADUATE? IT WAS A BIG QUESTION IN 2010 BEFORE TENNESSEE'S COMMISSION OF HIGHER EDUCATION. RUSS DEATON IS THE COMMISSION'S CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER.

>> OUR SCHOOLS WERE VERY GOOD AT OPENING THEIR DOORS TO STUDENTS, AND THE FINANCIAL PRECIOUS WERE NOT ON RETAINING STUDENTS AND GRADUATING THEM.

>> Sreenivasan: SO TENNESSEE DECIDED TO DUMP THE TRADITIONAL FUNDING MODEL. INSTEAD OF PAYING SCHOOLS TO ENROLL STUDENTS, THE STATE NOW PAYS SCHOOLS TO GRADUATE STUDENTS.

>> WE USED TO COUNT UP ENROLLMENTS, NOW WE COUNT DEGREES. HOW MANY BACHELOR'S DEGREES DID YOU PRODUCE THE LAST ACADEMIC YEAR, HOW MANY STUDENTS SUCCESSFULLY PLACED IN JOBS, HOW MUCH RESEARCH DID THE UNIVERSITY DO. SIMPLY COUNTING UP OTHER OUTCOMES.

>> SEEMS REAL EASY.

>> Sreenivasan: NOW THE MORE STUDENTS THAT GRADUATE, THE MORE MONEY THE SCHOOL GETS FROM THE STATE.

>> IT'S TRYING TO FIND WAYS TO GET SCHOOLS TO RESPOND TO INCENTIVE THE SAME WAY PEOPLE RESPOND TO INCENTIVE. AS A PROFESSOR, I DON'T GRADE STUDENTS THE FIRST DAY OF CLASS, I SEE HOW THEY PERFORM THROUGHOUT THE SEMESTER AND EVALUATE THEM.

>> Sreenivasan: PERFORMANCE BASED FUNDING IS CATCHING FIRE. 25 STATES USE SOME FORM. TENNESSEE WAS FIRST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE TYING 100% OF FUNDS TO OUTCOMES. NOT EVERYONE IS HAPPY WITH THE CHANGE. IN MEMPHIS, THE NEW POLICY COST SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE COMMUNITY COLLEGE MORE THAN A MILLION DOLLARS. JOANNE BASSETT SAYS THE NEW MODEL HURTS COMMUNITY COLLEGES ESPECIALLY ONES THAT ATTRACT STUDENTS WHO STRUGGLE.

>> WE HAVE STUDENTS WHOSE AVERAGING ENTERING IS 16.5%. BUT WE HAVE A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME TO GET THE STUDENTS FINISHED IN TWO OR THREE YEARS.

>> Sreenivasan: MEMPHIS IS THE LARGEST POOR CITY IN AMERICA AND BASSET FEARS IT WILL FORCE THEM TO BE MORE SELECTIVE ABOUT THE STUDENTS THEY ACCEPT.

>> THE FORMULA SAYS "FIND BETTER STUDENTS, DO BETTER, PRODUCE BETTER OUTCOMES." WE WILL NEVER DO THAT. WE TAKE ANYBODY WHO HAS A DREAM THAT WANTS A COLLEGE EDUCATION, THAT WANTS TO RISE OUT OF POVERTY, AND WE TRY TO DO THE BEST THAT WE CAN.

>> WHAT'S THE FIRST THING WE HAVE TO DO?

>> Sreenivasan: BUT AT AUSTIN PEAY STATE UNIVERSITY, GRADUATION RATES CLIMBED AND THE SCHOOL REAPED AN EXTRA $4 MILLION.

>> WHAT ARE YOU STUDYING?

>> Sreenivasan: PRESIDENT TIM HAUL SAYS HE WORKED HARD TO BUILD STRONG STUDENT TO SCHOOL CONNECTIONS, WHAT HALL CALLS STICKINESS.

>> THE STICKINESS OF AN INSTITUTION HOLDS STUDENTS IN PLACE ACROSS TIME. GRADUATION TAKES TYPICALLY 120 HOURS, AND THE GREAT ENEMY IS LIFE. LIFE IS CONSTANTLY TAKING STUDENTS OFF PATHWAY. SO YOU HAVE TO PAY ATTENTION TO HOW LIFE CAN REDIRECT PEEP AWAY FROM COLLEGE -- PEOPLE AWAY FROM COLLEGE AND TRY TO INCREASE THE STICKINESS OF THE COLLEGE EXPERIENCE SO LIFE DOESN'T KNOCK THEM OFF COURSE.

>> READY FOR FINALS? YEAH.

>> Sreenivasan: TO CREATE STICKINESS, EXPERIENCES ARE CAREFULLY SCHEDULED.

>> WHEN WE STRUCTURE TIME FOR FACULTY AND STUDENTS TO COME TOGETHER GOOD THINGS HAPPEN.

>> Sreenivasan: LIKE SOCIAL EVENTS FOR STUDENTS AND PROFESSORS OUTSIDE THE CLASSROOM.

>> IT MIGHT BE FOR AN ENGLISH PROFESSOR TAKING STUDENTS TO SEE A LOCAL PRODUCTION OF A SHAKESPEAREAN PLAY. FOR A SCIENTIST IT MIGHT BE TAKING OUR STUDENTS ON A BIOLOGICAL FIELD TRIP OUT INTO SOME AREA WHERE THEY STUDY SOMETHING THAT THEY ALSO STUDY IN CLASS.

>> Sreenivasan: LIKE GROUPING STUDENTS INTO THE SAME CLASSES.

>> ABOUT 35% OF OUR STUDENTS THIS PAST FALL TOOK THREE COURSES TOGETHER. IMAGINE A STUDENT WHO IS A BRAND-NEW FRESHMAN, DOESN'T KNOW ANYONE AND IS WONDERING, WHEN IS THE TEST IN THAT CLASS? I KNOW THE PROFESSOR SAID. THAT STUDENT MIGHT BE RELUCTANT TO TURN AROUND AND ASK A STRANGER, BUT IF THE STUDENT IS LOOKING AT SOMEONE HE OR SHE HAS HAD IN THE SAME CLASS NOW FOR SEVERAL MONTHS AND MORE THAN JUST ONE CLASS, THEY'RE MORE WILLING TO ASK QUESTIONS LIKE THAT. SUCCESS IS BUILT OFF OF SUCH TRIVIAL MATTERS AS THE WILLINGNESS TO ASK, TO GET HELP, TO TURN AND RELY ON SOMEBODY ELSE.

>> GO AHEAD AND CLICK ON HEALTH EDUCATORS.

>> Sreenivasan: ONE OF THE INNOVATIONS HALL IS PROUDEST OF A "DEGREE COME PASS," A COMPUTER PROGRAM THAT WORKS LIKE AMAZON.com OR NETFLIX. IT'S A PREDICTION PROGRAM THAT PREDICTS HOW WELL A STUDENT WILL DO IN A COURSE.

>> IT TAKES EVERY STUDENT'S ACADEMIC RECORD AND COMPARES IT WITH EVERY OTHER STUDENT WE HAVE AND ON THE BASIS WE HAVE, IT CAN MAKE REMARKABLY ACCURATE PREDICTIONS ABOUT THE COURSES THAT YOU WILL DO WELL IN AND THE COURSES THAT YOU WILL DO NOT SO WELL IN.

>> Sreenivasan: ADVISOR ASHLEE SPEARMAN EXPLAINS HOW SOFT PAIR PREVENTS STUDENTS FROM TAKE TOO MANY DIFFICULT COURSES AT THE SAME TIME THAT CAN LEAD TO FAILURE AND DROPOUT.

>> WE HAVE STATS THAT CAN SHOW YOU, YOU MAY WANT TO TAKE A SPECIFIC CLASS, BUT ACCORDING TO YOUR PAST THIS MAY BE MORE CHALLENGING FOR YOU, SO YEAH MAY WANT TO PAIR THE APPROPRIATE COURSES WITH THAT COURSE. SO THAT DEFINITELY WILL HELP THE STUDENTS AS THEY'RE MATRICULATING THROUGH TO GRADUATION TO NOT ONLY TAKE COURSES THAT ARE GOING TO BE CHALLENGING. YOU ARE PREDICTING TO DO WELL IN THE ACTUAL COURSE, BUT THE LAB YOU'RE POTENTIALLY ONLY GOING TO DO 4.5 STARS.

>> Sreenivasan: IN TYLER MILTON'S CASE, THE SYSTEM PREDICTED SHE WOULD NEED HELP IN EXTRA CLASSES.

>> WHEN YOU'RE GOING TO COLLEGE IN YOUR FRESHMAN YEAR, YOU DON'T KNOW HOW TO PREPARE, YOU'RE FREAKING OUT, STRESSED OUT, AWAY FROM HOME. SO IT'S DIFFERENT. BUT LOOKING AT THAT, I DID PREPARE MYSELF AND GO TO TUTORING CLASSES. DID I DO TUTORING BECAUSE THE STAR SYSTEM HELPED? I ENDED UP DOING BETTER IN SOME CLASSES.

>> Sreenivasan: THE TENNESSEE MODEL IS SPREADING TO OTHER STATES. AUSTIN PEAY'S PRESIDENT TIMOTHY HAL IS MOVING TO A SMALL COLLEGE IN NEW YORK STATE WHERE HE PLANS TO INTRODUCE THE SAME CHANGES. CAMPUSES ARE THINKING HOW TO BETTER SERVE ALL STUDENTS.

>> Sreenivasan: THE THREE-AND-A- HALF-YEAR-OLD CONFLICT IN SYRIA REACHED ANOTHER GRIM MILESTONE TODAY. THE UNITED NATIONS REPORTS THAT MORE THREE MILLION SYRIANS HAVE NOW BEEN FORCED TO FLEE THEIR COUNTRY. JEFFREY BROWN HAS MORE.

>> Brown: MOST OF THE REFUGEES HAVE FLED TO BORDERING NATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE BUCKLING FROM THE STRAIN OF THE MASSIVE INFLUX. ONE IN FOUR PEOPLE IN LEBANON TODAY-- NEARLY 1.2 MILLION-- ARE SYRIAN REFUGEES. JORDAN HAS MORE THAN 600,000 SYRIANS; TURKEY, MORE THAN 800,000. AND IRAQ, NOW WITH A GROWING HUMANITARIAN SITUATION OF ITS OWN, HAS MORE THAN 200,000 REFUGEES. JOINING ME NOW WITH MORE IS PAUL O'BRIEN, VICE PRESIDENT FOR POLICY AND CAMPAIGN AT OXFAM. WELCOME TO ANOTHER BENCHMARK AND VERY LARGE NUMBER, FIRST BROADLY SPEAKING. HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THAT?

>> IT'S SIGNIFICANT. IT'S TRAGIC. WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING NUMBERS GROW EVER SINCE OKAY FAMILIAR STARTED WORKING ON THE CRISIS. WE HAVE BEEN CALLING ON POLICYMAKERS BOTH IN THE REGION AND THE UNITED STATES AND GLOBALLY TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. NO ONE HAS DONE ENOUGH. SO WE SEE A TRAGIC NUMBER LIKE TODAY.

>> Brown: INSIDE SYRIA, HOW MUCH DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE SITUATION, WHERE PEOPLE ARE FLEEING, HOW MANY THERE ARE?

>> WE KNOW IT'S BAD. WE KNOW THERE ARE 11 MILLION PEOPLE WITH HUMANITARIAN NEEDS ON THE GROUND IN SYRIA STILL. THAT'S HALF THE POPULATION. A QUARTER OF MILLION OF THOSE WE JUST CAN'T EVEN REACH BECAUSE THEY'RE FACING SO MUCH FEAR OF CONFLICT NO ONE CAN GET NEAR THEM. OXFAM IS TRYING TO REACH. HARD TO VERIFY, BUT WE HAVE ABOUT A MILLION PEOPLE WITH WATER, DIGGING WELLS, TRUCKING WATER. IT'S A DIFFICULT PLACE FOR OXFAM TO WORK. WE'RE DOING THE BEST WE CAN BUT IT'S HARD FOR ALL ORGANIZATIONS.

>> Brown: YOU MENTIONED HUMANITARIAN FEEDS AND SAID WATER.

>> THAT'S A KEY ONE.

>> Reporter: WHAT ELSE? SAFETY. THAT'S WHAT PEOPLE REALLY WANT IS THE ABILITY TO STAY WHERE THEY WANT. SYRIANS WOULD LIKE TO GO BACK BUT MANY ARE RELUCTANT TO BECAUSE OF SAFETY. WHEN THEY DON'T GET SAFETY, WE DEAL WITH WATER, FOOD SECURITY, SHELTER, BASICS FUNDAMENTALS TO GET THROUGH THE DAY. WE'RE TRYING TO HELP THE POPULATION SURVIVE UNTIL WE CAN START TO HELP THEM REBUILD THEIR LIVES.

>> Brown: IN THESE BORDERING COUNTRIES, VERY LARGE NUMBERS. THIS PUTS A GREAT STRAIN ON THESE COUNTRIES.

>> YEAH, THEY'RE BUCKLING. THIS CAN'T GO ON. THE COUNTRIES THAT YOU MENTIONED, JORDAN, LEBANON, TURKEY, THE POPULATIONS OF REFUGEES THERE HAVE GROWN BEYOND WHAT THEY ARE CAPABLE OF MANAGING. IT'S NOT ECONOMICALLY VIABLE, NOT VIABLE IN TERMS OF SECURITY AND WE'RE GOING TO SEE THE CONSEQUENCES IF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IN GENERAL DOES NOT HELP.

>> Brown: GIVE EXAMPLES OF WHAT IS LIFE LIKE IN BORDER CAMPS AND ELSEWHERE THAT YOU ARE SEEING?

>> PEOPLE ARE LITERALLY WAITING TO LIVE. THEY ARE TRYING TO REBUILD LIFE. IT'S BEEN THREE YEARS SO THEY'RE TRYING TO EEK OUT AN ECONOMIC LIVELIHOOD, WORKING WITH LOCAL POPULATIONS, SOMETIMES COMPETING WITH LOCAL POPULATION FORCE JOBS, THAT WON'T WORK IN THE LONG TERM AS F THE NUMBERS KEEP GROWING. THEY'RE NOT GETTING ENOUGH AID TO GIVE THEM NEAR THE INGREDIENTS THEY NEED TO REBUILD THEIR LIVES. TRYING TO GET THE MONEY NEEDED TO SERVE THESE POPULATIONS, IT'S $2 BILLION SHORT IN TERMS OF ITS MOST RECENT APPEAL. ACTUALLY, IT'S NOT THE UNITED STATES THAT'S THE PROBLEM ON THE AID FRONT. IT'S BEEN QUITE GENEROUS RELATIVELY SPEAKING.

>> Brown: SO WHERE IS THE PROBLEM?

>> WELL, IT'S TWOFOLD IN TERMS OF THE DONORS. OTHER DONORS ARE GOING TO HAVE TO STEP UP TO THE PLATE IN SOME WAY. WE'VE GOT TO GET THE KINDS OF NUMBERS THE U.N. IS CALLING FOR. THAT'S ONE THING. BUT BECAUSE THE NUMBER OF REFUGEES HAS GROWN SO MUCH AND LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO CONTINUE TO GROW, THE NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES CANNOT BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ABSORB THEM. SO THAT PRESENTS A DIFFERENT QUESTION FOR THE UNITED STATES. IS IT WILLING TO START ABSORBING RESETTLEMENT FLOWS OF SOME OF THESE PEOPLE.

>> Brown: THAT'S THE QUESTION. YES, IT IS. SINCE THE CRISIS BEGAN, WE'VE OBSERVED LESS THAN 200 SYRIAN REFUGEES. COLLECTIVELY, THE EUROPEANS HAVE ABSORBED LESS THAN 200,000, BUT THAT QUESTION IS GOING TO KEEP COMING BACK.

>> Brown: VERY BRIEFLY, YOU SAID IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE NUMBER WILL CONTINUE TO GROW. A SIGN THAT 3 MILLION BENCHMARK WILL BE WELL SURPASSED.

>> AND WITH THE IRAQ SITUATION, IT'S ONLY LIKELY TO GET WORSE. THEY ARE SOMETIMES LEAVING FOR ECONOMIC REASONS, BUT FUNDAMENTALLY FOR SECURITY REASONS, AND THE SECURITY SITUATION IS NOT GETTING ANY BETTER. JULY OF THIS YEAR WAS THE WORST MONTH YET IN TERMS OF FATALITIES OF CIVILIANS SINCE THE CRISIS STARTED, SO IT'S GETTING WORSE.

>> Sreenivasan: THANK YOU SO MUCH.

>> Sreenivasan: AND THAT BRINGS US TO THE WEEKLY ANALYSIS OF SHIELDS AND BROOKS-- THAT'S SYNDICATED COLUMNIST MARK SHIELDS AND "NEW YORK TIMES" COLUMNIST DAVID BROOKS. SO THE PHRASE FROM YESTERDAY'S PRESS CONFERENCE EVERYBODY LEFT ON IS WE HAVE NO STRATEGY. BUT SINCE WE'RE THE "NEWSHOUR", WE'LL GO DEEPER THAN THAT. IS THERE A TIME NOW IN THIS COUNTRY AND APPETITE FOR A NATIONAL CONVERSATION, A CONGRESSIONAL DEBATE ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT TO USE FORCE AND WHAT SORT OF FORCE?

>> I DON'T KNOW IF THERE'S AN APPETITE. THERE'S A NEED, AN URGENCY. I WANT TO START OFF BY GIVING THE PROPS OR THE SHOUT OUT TO THREE MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE WHICH IS USUALLY AN INSTITUTION THAT GETS MUCH SCORN AND ABUSE THAN THOSE OF US IN THE PRESS. THE DEMOCRAT OF CALIFORNIA, CONGRESSMAN WALTER JONES, REPUBLICAN OF NORTH CAROLINA AND DEMOCRAT JIM McGOVERN OF MASSACHUSETTS, WROTE A LETTER TO JOHN BOEHNER URGING THE SPEAKER UPON RETURN TO THE HOUSE SEPTEMBER 8 THAT THEY TAKE UP THE QUESTION OF IRAQ AND SYRIA AND THE AUTHORIZATION OF ADDED FORCE OR WHATEVER IT IS AND DEFINE THE MISSION, TO DEBATE AND TO DETERMINE JUST EXACTLY WHAT THE UNITED STATES' POLICY IS AND TO VOTE ON IT. THIS MAKES THEM UNPOPULAR WITH THEIR COLLEAGUES. AS BOB DOLE SAID ONCE, MEMBERS OF CONGRESS LOVE TO MAKE TOUGH SPEECHES BUT DON'T LIKE TO CAST TOUGH VOTES. AND THIS WILL BE A TOUGH VOTE, ESPECIALLY NEAR AN ELECTION, MOST PEOPLE DON'T WANT TO DO IT. IT IS NECESSARY. WE DID NOT DO IT 12 YEARS AGO. WE HAD A HURRIED, A RUSHED ELECTION, A DEBATE WHEN DEMOCRATS WERE TERRIFIED OF BEING ACCUSED OF BEING SOFT ON TERRORISM AND THEY WERE COWED AND WE HAD MISINFORMATION AND MISDIRECTION AND TRAGEDY RESULT. I JUST THINK IT'S ABSOLUTELY IMPERATIVE AND USUA URGENT.

>> I AGREE. I'M A BIG FAN OF PRESIDENTIAL ACTION. I THINK THE PRESIDENT HAS THE RIGHT TO TAKE ACTION IN THIS CASE, NEVERTHELESS FOR THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE ACTION AND THE GOOD OF THE COUNTRY, I THINK WE NEED A NATIONAL DEBATE AND I THINK YOU COULD PROBABLY GET A BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR SOMETHING. THE CRUCIAL ISSUE IS HOW WE FRAME THIS. DO WE SEE THESE AS A DISTINCT WAR IN SYRIA, SOMETHING DISTINCT IN LEBANON, SYRIA, SOMETHING DISTINCT IN IRAN? TO ME, IT'S WHAT WE NEED THIS THIS DEBATE IS AN APPRECIATION OF SETBACK AND A APPRECIATION OF THE PROBLEM AND THIS IS NOT WHAT THE ADMINISTRATION HAS GIVEN US SO FAR. HISHAM MELHEM EARLIER IN THE PROGRAM HAD A GOOD ANALOGY OF SPANISH CIVIL WAR THAT YOU HAD GLOBAL MEAN COMING IN ON TWO DIFFERENT SIDES AND THAT'S SCARY BECAUSE THE SPANISH WAR WAS PRECURSOR TO WORLD WAR II. RICHARD HAAS HAS CALLED IT THE 30-YEAR WAR, A HORRIBLY DESTRUCTIVE WAR IN EUROPE IN THE 17th CENTURY. SO TO FIGURE OUT WHAT WE'RE DEALING, WITH WHAT IS AL QUAIDA, I.S.I.S., THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO, WITH OTHER JIHADY ORGANIZATIONS AND HOW DO WE GET INVOLVED IN WHAT WILL BE A LONG-RUNNING PROBABLY MEDIUM-LEVEL CONFLICT FOR A LONG TIME TO COME? WE HAVEN'T REALLY HAD THE POST-IRAQ DEBATE.

>> Sreenivasan: SHIFTING TO UKRAINE. EACH DAY PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN ARE ABLE TO INCREASE THE RHETORIC, WHETHER VIDEO GAME OR SATELLITE IMAGES OF A THOUSAND RUSSIAN TROOPS CROSSING THE BORDER WHETHER CALLED AN INVASION, AN INCURSION. HOW DOES UKRAINE DEAL WITH THIS AND WHAT IS THE AMERICAN ROLE IF THERE IS ONE?

>> AMERICA HAS AN OBLIGATION. IN 1994 TO GET UKRAINE TO SURRENDER ITS INCREDIBLE NUCLEAR ARSENAL AT THE TIME, THERE WAS A GUARANTEE GIVEN BY THE UNITED STATES AND WESTERN DEMOCRACIES AND EUROPEAN NATIONS OF SUPPORT AND DEFENSE AND SECURITY, AND I DON'T THINK THERE IS ANY QUESTION THAT THAT OBLIGATION IS ON THE TABLE RIGHT NOW. THE PLAUSIBLE DENIABILITY THAT PUTIN COULD HIDE BEHIND HAS BEEN TOTALLY EXPOSED, TOTALLY SABOTAGED FOR THE FRAUD THAT IT IS. THIS IS AN ATTEMPTED ON HIS PART, WHETHER AN ALLEY, AN AVENUE DOWN TO CRIMEA AND THEN HIS CONCERN ABOUT THE WATER PORT AND OPENNESS THERE. BUT I WOULD THINK THE OBLIGATION IS THERE AND I THINK THE WORLD IS WATCHING HIM, AND N.A.T.O. NEXT WEEK WILL BRING IT TO A FRONT.

>> Sreenivasan: IS THIS N.A.T.O.'S RESPONSIBILITY?

>> NO, IT'S EVERYBODY'S. MOST OF THE MIDDLE EAST AND WHAT HAPPENED IN UKRAINE ARE SYMPTOMS OF A VACUUM, A POST IN THE POST-21st CENTURY ORDER AND PARTLY A VACUUM OF AMERICAN POWER, CERTAINLY A VACUUM OF EUROPEAN COHESION POWER, CERTAINLY AN INABILITY OF THE MAJOR COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD INCLUDING CHINA TO GET TOGETHER AND IMPOSE AN ORDER THAT WOULD BE GOOD FOR EVERYBODY. WHEN YOU HAVE NO ORDER, THE PUTINS OF THE WORLD GET MORE AGGRESSIVE. I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE IN THE ADMINISTRATION HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVE RHETORICALLY, THEY UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEM. I THINK THE PRESIDENT HAS NOT BEEN AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH. THIS IS AN INVASION. WHEN YOU TAKE OVER A PART OF THE COUNTRY SO YOU CAN HAVE A LAND ROUTE TO CRIMEA, THAT'S AN INVASION, NOT A CONTINUATION OF WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN DOING. IT'S NOT LOW-LEVEL HARASSMENT, IT'S A MAJOR INVASION ON EUROPEAN SOIL. YOU JUST CAN'T ALLOW THAT TO HAPPEN. TO ME, THE FIRST STEP HAS TO BE IF THE RUSSIANS ARE GIVING SOPHISTICATED MATERIAL TO THEIR PROXIES, THE WEST HAS TO POUR MORE SOPHISTICATED MATERIAL INTO OUR PROXIES ESSENTIALLY AND THAT'S BEEN AN ISSUE THAT HAS BEEN DEBATED OVER AND OVER AGAIN. BUT RAISING COSTS TO PUTIN HAS TO BE THE FIRST STEP.

>> Sreenivasan: IF THE U.S. MAKES ATTACKS INSIDE SYRIA, A SOVEREIGN NATION, IS THAT NOT A DECLARATION OF WAR?

>> I THINK IT'S CERTAINLY ONE DEFINITION OF A DECLARATION OF WAR. THAT'S WHY I THINK THE DEBATE -- I MEAN, THE DEBATE THAT WE DIDN'T HAVE 12 YEARS AGO -- FOR EXAMPLE, IF WE'RE GOING TO DO THIS -- DAVID IS TALKING ABOUT 30 YEARS, 20 YEARS, WHATEVER, A LONG TWILIGHT STRUGGLE, CALL IT WHAT YOU WILL -- I MEAN, IT'S A COUNTRY FIGHTS A WAR. (AUDIO DIFFICULTY)

>> BUT YOU CAN EASILY MAKE THE CASE, IT WILL HURT US IN THE SHORT TERM IF YOU'RE A DEMOCRAT BUT HELP US IN THE LONG TERM BECAUSE IT WILL SOLIDIFY THE LATINO RESULTS. BUT IT'S INTERESTING. ON MATTERS OF STANCE SUBSTANCE,E WITH THE POLICY.

>> THERE ARE 11 MILLION UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS IN THIS COUNTRY, SOME OF WHOM WERE BROUGHT HERE AS CHILDREN, HAD NOTHING TO DO ABOUT IT. BUT WE ARE NOT GOING TO -- IT IS SOMEWHAT OF A MANUFACTURED ISSUE. WE'RE NOT GOING TO EXPLORE, DEPORT, ROUND UP 400 MILLION PEOPLE. SO, I MEAN, THIS IS REALLY -- IT IS A POLITICAL ISSUE.

>> CAN'T REALLY -- IT'S EFFECTIVELY CHANGING THE LAW IF YOU SAY, OKAY, THIS IS OFFICIALLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN AND CONGRESS HAS TO BE INVOLVED. I HATE THE IDEA OF PRESIDENT DOING THIS ALL BY HIMSELF.

>> Sreenivasan: IN FLORIDA, INTERESTING GOVERNOR'S RACE. MORNING LINE, EMAIL NOTED TODAY IT WOULD BE IF CHARLIE CRIST WAS ABLE TO WIN, IT WOULD BE THE FIRST TIME IN FLORIDA A GOVERNOR WAS ABLE TO SWITCH PARTIES AND SUCCEED TWICE. COULD HE BE SUCCESSFUL?

>> HE COULD BE. THE IRONY OF THIS -- I MEAN, CHARLIE CRIST WAS ELECTED AS A REPUBLICAN, AS YOU KNOW, AND RAN AS AN INDEPENDENT OF THE SENATE AND MIK MARCO RUBIO IS RUNNING. PRESIDENT OBAMA WHO IS NOT SOUGHT BY MOST DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES EXCEPT TO RAISE MONEY THIS YEAR COULD BE OF HELP. WHEN HE CARRIED THE STATE, THE COMPOSITION OF THE ELECTORATE WAS 67% WHITE. THE TURN OUT OF LATINOS, AFRICAN-AMERICANS AND ASIANS. IT WAS THREE-QUARTERS WHITE WHEN SCOTT WAS ELECTED IN 2010. THE PRESIDENT COULD BE A HELP TO CHARLIE CRIST.

>> Sreenivasan: 5 MINUTES. I'M A LITTLE MORE SKEPTICAL. TOO LEFTS FOR THE REPUBLICANS AND TWO RIGHTS FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

>> Sreenivasan: THANKS SO MUCH.

>> Sreenivasan: FINALLY TONIGHT, TEENS FROM AROUND THE COUNTRY LOOK AT THE EVENTS IN FERGUSON, MISSOURI, THIS SUMMER. WE ASKED OUR NETWORK OF STUDENT REPORTING LABS HOW THE SHOOTING OF MICHAEL BROWN AND THE VIOLENT AFTERMATH AFFECTED THEIR VIEWS OF JUSTICE AND RACE IN AMERICA. HERE IS A SAMPLE OF THOSE RESPONSES.

>> HE DID COMMIT A CRIME IN THE STORE AND THAT LED TO AT THE VENT OF HIS DEATH BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN HIS DEATH WAS RIGHT.

>> IN MY EYES, I DON'T EVEN THINK IT SHOULD GET TO THAT POINT. BEING THAT YOU'RE AN OFFICER, YOU HAVE TO GO BY A SET OF RULES KNOWN AS THE USE OF FORCE CONTINUUM. SO ONCE THE PERPETRATOR GETS TOO CLOSE INTO YOUR LEVEL, YOUR FIRST DEFENSE SHOULD BE TO GRAB A TASER OR TO USE HAND-TO-HAND COMBAT BECAUSE THEY ARE TAUGHT THAT. DEADLY FORCE IS THE LAST, THE VERY, VERY LAST METHOD THEY'RE SUPPOSED TO USE.

>> I THOUGHT WE WERE A LITTLE BIT FURTHER ALONG AS FAR AS RACE INJUSTICE IN AMERICA. OF COURSE, WE STILL HAVE PROGRESS TO MAKE, BUT AS FAR AS RACE INJUSTICE AND HOW THE POLICE ARE HANDLING THE SITUATION, I HAD NO IDEA THAT IT COULD GET THIS HORRIBLE, REALLY.

>> UNFORTUNATELY, RACISM IS GOING TO BE HERE FOR A WHILE AS IT HAS BEEN FOR A VERY LONG TIME. I DON'T THINK ITS FAIR THAT WE BLAME ALL POLICE OFFICERS FOR THE ACTION OF A VERY FEW AND I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT WE WAIT FOR EVERY FACT TO COME THROUGH.

>> DISPERSE IMMEDIATELY. THIS IS NO LONGER A PEACEFUL PROTEST WHEN YOU TRY TO INJURY PEOPLE!

>> IT MAKES TOTAL SENSE TO ME WHY THE GENERAL PUBLIC WOULD FEEL LIKE THERE'S A LOSS OF MEANING IN THE POLICE, LIKE THIS IDEA OF POLICE BEING HERE TO PROTECT AND SERVE YOU, WHEN THERE ARE PEOPLE IN FERGUSON WHO ARE PROTESTING THE DEATH OF ONE OF THEIR CHILDREN AND THE DEVALUING OF YOUNG BLACK LIFE, AND POLICE RESPOND WITH TEAR GAS, TANKS, RUBBER BULLETS, FLASH GRENADES?

>> WHAT HAPPENED IN FERGUSON, MISSOURI IS A STRATEGY BUT ALSO A BIT OF A LOGICAL PROGRESSION. LIVING IN THE TYPE OF COMMUNITY I DO, I SEE THE ISSUES MORE THAN SOME PEOPLE AROUND THE COUNTRY WOULD, AND I FEEL LIKE IT'S THE START OF ALMOST A SECOND CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT BECAUSE IT'S THE SAME AS THE FIRST ONE STARTED, AND THAT THE RACIAL TENSIONS HAVE BEEN BUILDING UP AND REACHED A BOILING POINT NOW.

>> IT REALLY SHOWED THAT EVEN THOUGH SEGREGATION IS OVER AND WE HAVE A BLACK PRESIDENT, EQUALITY ISN'T HERE.

>> YOU KNOW, YOU END UP THINKING POLICE ARE MY FRIENDS, POLICE WOULD NEVER HARM ME. POLICE HAVE MY BEST INTEREST AT HEART. THEN YOU SEE SOMETHING LIKE THIS AND YOU THINK THAT'S NOT THE WAY IT IS FOR EVERYBODY AND THE EVENTS NEED TO CHANGE.

>> I THINK THE EVENTS IN FERGUSON REFIELD TO ME THAT RACIAL TENSIONS ARE STILL VERY REAL IN AMERICA AND THEY'RE JUST SOMETHING WE DON'T TALK ABOUT AS A SOCIETY ANYMORE, AND IT'S BECOME KIND OF A TABOO SUBJECT, AND I THINK SCHOOLS SHOULD DO MORE TO CREATE A DIALOGUE ABOUT THAT SO THAT WE CAN BEGIN TO CURB THOSE LONG-LASTING PREJUDICES THAT WE HAVE.

>> Sreenivasan: YOU CAN SEE MORE STUDENT VOICES AS WELL AS A TEACHER LOUNGE BLOG WITH STRATEGIES FOR TALKING ABOUT FERGUSON IN THE CLASSROOM ON OUR WEB SITE.

>> Sreenivasan: AGAIN, THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS OF THE DAY. THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION CONFIRMED 500 NEW EBOLA CASES IN WEST AFRICA THIS WEEK, THE MOST YET. THEY INCLUDED THE FIRST CASE REPORTED IN SENEGAL. REBELS IN SOUTHEASTERN UKRAINE CONSOLIDATED THEIR CONQUEST OF A KEY TOWN. THEY ALSO DENIED RUSSIAN TROOPS ARE FIGHTING ON THEIR SIDE. AND THE WHITE HOUSE DEFENDED PRESIDENT OBAMA'S STATEMENT THAT THERE'S NO STRATEGY YET FOR DEALING WITH "ISLAMIC STATE" FORCES IN SYRIA. A SPOKESMAN SAID THE PRESIDENT IS WAITING FOR PENTAGON OPTIONS. ON THE NEWSHOUR ONLINE RIGHT NOW: SHOW UP EARLY, DRESS APPROPRIATELY, DON'T DATE THE BOSS-- PRETTY GOOD JOB ADVICE TO REMEMBER AS WE SET OFF TO CELEBRATE THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY THIS WEEKEND. OUR PBS PARTNERS AT THE WEB SITE NEXT AVENUE ASKED READERS FOR THE BEST LESSONS THEY LEARNED FROM THEIR FIRST JOBS, AND WE INVITE YOU TO ADD YOUR BEST ADVICE. LEAVE A COMMENT ON THE STORY OR TELL US ON FACEBOOK OR TWITTER. ALL THAT AND MORE IS ON OUR WEB SITE, newshour.pbs.org. AND A REMINDER ABOUT SOME UPCOMING PROGRAMS FROM OUR PBS COLLEAGUES. GWEN IFILL IS PREPARING FOR "WASHINGTON WEEK," WHICH AIRS LATER THIS EVENING. HERE'S A PREVIEW.

>> Ifill: THE DEBATE OVER STRATEGY TONIGHT WHETHER IT'S ABOUT SYRIA, IRAQ, UKRAINE, OR AMERICAN BUSINESS AND POLITICS, WE DIVE INTO THE ISSUES CAPTIVATING A NATION. TONIGHT ON "WASHINGTON WEEK." HARI?

>> Sreenivasan: IN TOMORROW'S EDITION OF PBS NEWSHOUR WEEKEND, I'LL BE TAKING A LOOK AT HOW THE ISLAMIC STATE IS MORE SAVAGE AND MEDIA SAVVY IN IT'S CAMPAIGN TO GAIN CONTROL OF IRAQ, SYRIA AND BEYOND. AND WE'LL BE BACK RIGHT HERE ON MONDAY, LABOR DAY, WITH A PAUL SOLOMON REPORT ON HOW SOME PART- TIME WORKERS ARE COPING WITH THIS SLOW ECONOMIC RECOVERY. THAT'S THE NEWSHOUR FOR TONIGHT. I'M HARI SREENIVASAN. HAVE A NICE WEEKEND. THANK YOU AND GOOD NIGHT.

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