The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I`m Jim Lehrer.

On the NewsHour tonight: the news of this Thursday; then, tough questions with analysis of the job done in Iraq by General George Casey, now the nominee for Army chief of staff; and the testimony on Iraq by former National Security Advisers Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski; a Charlayne Hunter-Gault report on new hopes for the AIDS fight in South Africa; and some final words from Texas wordsmith Molly Ivins.

(BREAK)

JIM LEHRER: Suicide bombings ravaged a Shiite city in southern Iraq today. At least 45 Iraqis were killed. Two attackers blew themselves up in a busy market in Hillah. In addition to the dead, 150 people were wounded.

For January, nearly 2,000 Iraqi civilians were killed in the ongoing violence. The Iraqi Health Ministry gave that figure today.

And 84 U.S. troops died in January, mostly in combat. Nearly 3,100 Americans have been killed since the war began.

Another U.S. soldier died today from wounds suffered earlier in the week.

In Washington today, the outgoing U.S. commander in Iraq, General George Casey, differed with President Bush over sending another 21,000 U.S. troops. He said securing Baghdad could have been done with a far smaller force. Casey spoke at his Senate confirmation hearing to be Army chief of staff.

Later, White House Press Secretary Tony Snow had this to say.

TONY SNOW, White House Press Secretary: The president, after talking with General Casey and other commanders, came to the conclusion that he preferred to have five brigades into Baghdad and 4,000 Marines into Anbar.

And, again, what General Casey was talking about is some suggestions he`d made earlier. The president has made his decision, and it does reflect the wisdom of a number of combatant commanders. And, again, it does have the assent of General Casey.

JIM LEHRER: We`ll have more on the Casey hearing right after this news summary.

Key senators pushed a new resolution today against sending more troops to Iraq. The compromise was reached late Wednesday between Democratic Senator Carl Levin and Republican Senator John Warner.

The nonbinding resolution drops Democratic language that said the plan was "against the national interest." At the same time, it drops Warner`s proposal for additional troops in western Iraq. It also opposes any attempt to cut off funding to keep U.S. forces in Iraq.

Democratic Senator Joe Biden of Delaware had offered the earlier measure, saying the plan was not in the national interest. He said today he`d support the compromise.

SEN. JOE BIDEN (D), Delaware: Every senator will be given a chance to vote on whether he or she supports or disagrees with the president`s plan as outlined by Secretary Rice. If the president does not listen -- and assuming that majority is where I believe it is, with Senator Warner, and myself and others -- if the majority of the Congress and the majority of the American people speak loudly, it`s very difficult, I think, for the president to totally dismiss that.

JIM LEHRER: The resolution needs 60 votes to cut off a possible filibuster, but at least two Democrats balked at the compromise. Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin said it`s too weak. He favors cutting off funds for the war. And Senator Chris Dodd of Connecticut announced his opposition.

SEN. CHRIS DODD (D), Connecticut: It seems to me we`re going in exactly the wrong direction. And instead of standing up and coming up with something here that would require the president respond to it and offer an alternative, in a change in policy, as recommended three months ago -- two months ago by Jim Baker and Lee Hamilton, I think is a missed opportunity, and I think one we`ll regret.

JIM LEHRER: Republicans John McCain and Lindsey Graham, along with independent Democrat Joe Lieberman, opposed the compromise on different grounds. McCain said it still sends the wrong message, especially to the military.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), Arizona: This is a degree of micro-management which is absolutely Orwellian. That alone should cause us to reject this kind of foolishness. I mean, you`re going to allow, as Senator Graham said, a free kill zone in Baghdad, but it`s OK to go ahead and fight and sacrifice in Anbar? Someone`s going to have to explain that.

JIM LEHRER: McCain, Graham and Lieberman said they would press ahead with their own resolution. It supports increasing troops, but sets benchmarks for the Iraqi government.

French President Chirac backtracked today on statements about Iran and nuclear weapons. On Monday, in an on-the-record interview with the New York Times and others, he said of Iran, "Having one or perhaps a second bomb a little later, well, that`s not very dangerous."

On Wednesday, Chirac retracted much of what he`d said. And today he issued another statement, saying the idea of Iran with nuclear weapons is unacceptable.

The world`s largest oil company, Exxon Mobil, set a profit record in 2006 for the second straight year. It posted earnings today of $39.5 billion, the most ever for a U.S. company. The new record came even though earnings declined in the fourth quarter.

The Senate voted today for the first minimum wage increase since 1997. The bill would raise the hourly rate by more than two dollars over 26 months, to $7.25. It also contains more than $8 billion dollars in tax breaks for small businesses. And it was unclear if House Democrats would accept those tax breaks.

Americans saved less money last year than any time since the Great Depression; the Commerce Department reported that today. It said the personal savings rate was negative 1 percent in 2006, as people spent more than they earned.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained nearly 52 points to close at 12,673. The Nasdaq rose four points to close at 2,468.

Opera composer Gian Carlo Menotti died today in Monaco. He wrote the classic Christmas opera "Amahl and the Night Visitors" and won two Pulitzer Prizes for music during his career. In 1957, Menotti founded the Festival of Two Worlds in Spoleto, Italy. That led to spin-offs in Charleston, South Carolina, and Melbourne, Australia. Menotti was 95 years old.

Molly Ivins died Wednesday at her home in Austin, Texas. The prominent author and columnist had battled breast cancer since 1999. Ivins` column was syndicated in more than 400 newspapers. She often took aim at the establishment, especially Texas political figures. She called politics the "finest form of free entertainment ever invented." Molly Ivins was 62 years old, and we`ll have more about her at the end of the program tonight.

Between now and then: Casey under the guns; Brzezinski and Scowcroft; and going after AIDS in South Africa.

(BREAK)

JIM LEHRER: Ray Suarez has our General Casey story.

RAY SUAREZ: The Senate Armed Services Committee focused on General George Casey`s two-and-a-half years in Iraq, as they considered his nomination to be Army chief of staff. Casey responded only occasionally, as Republican senators dominated the proceedings with their concerns about the president`s troop increase plan and their attacks on Casey for the deteriorating situation in Iraq.

Among the chief critics was Arizona Republican John McCain, a supporter of the president`s troop buildup.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), Arizona: While I do not in any way question your honor, your patriotism, or your service to our country, I do question some of the decisions and judgments you`ve made over the past two-and-a- half years as commander of multinational forces in Iraq.

During that time, things have gotten markedly and progressively worse, and the situation in Iraq can now best be described as dire and deteriorating. I regret that our window of opportunity to reverse momentum may be closing.

RAY SUAREZ: In response to McCain`s recitation of numerous optimistic statements Casey had made about Iraq in the past, the general defended his assessments and insisted the fight was not lost.

GEN. GEORGE CASEY, U.S. Army: What we and the Iraqis are doing in Iraq is hard, tough business. Fighting this type of campaign while rebuilding a dilapidated infrastructure, building a representative government where none existed before, and reconciling ethnic and sectarian differences makes it even more difficult and complex. The struggle in Iraq is winnable, but it will, as I have said before to this committee, take patience and will.

RAY SUAREZ: On the issue of troop increases, Casey explained that, back in November 2006, he had requested two brigades, between 6,000 and 10,000 troops, but that request was separate from the president`s plan announced last month.

Casey said his widely reported opposition to troop increases was misconstrued and that he supports the new Bush plan. Committee Chairman Carl Levin of Michigan asked what had changed his view.

GEORGE CASEY: What has changed, Senator, are several things: one, the development of a plan, a new plan, that was conceived by the Iraqis, in working in concert with us. So there was a plan that laid out requirements for those forces.

So just to say "Do you need more forces?" is one thing; to say "Do you need more forces to execute this plan?" is quite another.

RAY SUAREZ: McCain bored in on Casey`s opinion of the troop increase and on Casey`s view that the invasion and occupation of Iraq was not a failure.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN: Do you believe that the new job can be done with less than five brigades that General Petraeus says he needs?

GEORGE CASEY: I believe that the job in Baghdad, as it`s designed now, can be done with less than that. But having the flexibility to have the other three brigades on a deployment cycle gives us and gives General Petraeus great flexibility.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN: And this is a time when almost all of us major concern and military experts` major concern is whether five brigades are enough. And a very short time ago, you simply asked for two brigades.

We just have a fundamental disagreement, General Casey, with facts on the ground and with what has happened in Iraq, over now one of the longest wars in our history, and where we are today. I question seriously the judgment that was employed in your execution of your responsibilities in Iraq.

And we have paid a very, very heavy price in American blood and treasure because of what is now agreed to by literally everyone as a failed policy.

RAY SUAREZ: Later, under questioning from Virginia Republican Senator John Warner, Casey explained why he had originally made the smaller troop request.

GEORGE CASEY: I did not want to bring one more American soldier into Iraq than was necessary to accomplish the mission. And so what I asked for was the two brigades and the ability to maintain a reserve in Kuwait, in case I needed additional flexibility.

RAY SUAREZ: Warner is the author of a bipartisan resolution expressing concern over the troop increase, which has opened divisions within the Republican caucus. He took pains to absolve Casey of responsibility for the situation in Iraq.

SEN. JOHN WARNER (R), Virginia: I know full well how, under our Constitution, ever since George Washington, civilians are in charge of our military. They devise the policy; they issue the orders.

And our military individuals carry out those orders or, at times, I`ve seen senior officers respectfully disagree and, frankly, resign rather than carry out a policy which they feel is wrong.

I judge that the policy and the orders that you carried out were consistent with those traditions and that you were given orders.

RAY SUAREZ: Alabama Republican Jeff Sessions came back to the troop issue and acknowledged divisions within Republican ranks.

SEN. JEFF SESSIONS (R), Alabama: General Abizaid explained to me his personal belief as to why we ought not to bring in more troops than necessary to do the job. There`s a real tension there, and you`ve touched it.

And I don`t know; maybe Senator McCain is right. I don`t know. But I`ve always adhered to his view, and I think you shared it, that we want to keep the pressure on the Iraqis to step up their capability so it`s their country and their nation that they`re defending.

And if you bring in too much support, it could erode or lessen the pressure on them to assume responsibility. Is that part of your analysis?

GEORGE CASEY: That`s exactly right.

SEN. JEFF SESSIONS: What about the "Lawrence of Arabia" quote? What`s that? Can you recall that for us, that many...

GEORGE CASEY: "Better they do it imperfectly with their own hands than you do it perfectly with yours."

RAY SUAREZ: South Carolina Republican Lindsey Graham said the problem from the outset was not enough troops.

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R), South Carolina: To all of my colleagues who believe we can`t lose in Iraq, this is our last chance. The public is going to break against us big time. The Army is broken. You`ve asked for more troops to clean out Fallujah, and Fallujah got reoccupied. Could I go downtown to Fallujah tomorrow as a senator?

GEORGE CASEY: You could.

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM: Well, I asked to go and they wouldn`t let me.

GEORGE CASEY: I`ve actually took Senator Robb down there. If you`d have asked me, I would have...

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM: I asked to go to Ramadi, and they wouldn`t let me.

GEORGE CASEY: Ramadi is a little tougher, Senator.

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM: Well, the point I`m trying to make is, it`s clear to me that we`ve never had the force levels to be claiming we`ve been fighting a counterinsurgency. What percentage of the population is contained in the four provinces that are out of control in Iraq?

GEORGE CASEY: I wouldn`t characterize the provinces as out of control in Iraq. Baghdad and Anbar are very difficult. Diyala and Salahuddin are not out of control, but...

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM: What percentage of the country would it be possible for an American to walk down the street without being afraid of getting shot at or killed?

GEORGE CASEY: Probably about half, actually, Senator.

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM: Well, here we are, two-and-a-half years later, half the country no American can walk down the street. We`re talking about sending 21,500 more as our last best chance. And I ask, why 21,500? I`ve been told that`s all we`ve got, that, if we wanted to send 50,000, we couldn`t get them. Is that true?

GEORGE CASEY: I don`t know that to be true, Senator. I`ve not heard that.

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM: Well, I`ve been -- well, that`s something we need to know from the chief of staff of the Army. I believe that`s all we got. The reason we`re not sending 31,500, we just can`t get them.

RAY SUAREZ: The committee is expected to approve Casey`s nomination, but it`s still not clear if any Republican senators will vote against him.

For more on General Casey`s record and nomination, we get two views. Retired Army Colonel Kalev Sepp was a member of General Casey`s strategy team from 2004 to 2006 and was on the staff of the Iraq Study Group. He`s now an assistant professor at the Navy Post Graduate School.

And retired Army Colonel Douglas MacGregor is an author of two books on Army transformation. He`s now an independent businessman.

And, Colonel MacGregor, as the long-time commander there, is General Casey responsible for the current condition of Iraq?

COL. DOUGLAS MACGREGOR (Ret.), U.S. Army: Absolutely. He shares in the responsibility for the disaster that`s Iraq.

When he came in, in 2004, he found a disaster -- we were already in the midst of a rebellion against our occupation -- but he did not fundamentally redefine the strategic objective. In fact, what he did was reinforced the strategy we already had.

He reinforced the strategy of the big base building, the Maginot Line forts that we built in the cities and towns across the country, which were symbols of humiliation for the Arabs themselves.

He then launched these large-scale conventional sweeps that always made far more enemies than we killed. And then, finally, the cost of all of this went through the roof so that we were spend many, many times what we were spending when he first took over. So by any measure his tenure has been a failure.

RAY SUAREZ: Colonel Sepp, let me ask you the same question. And he`s still the titular commander there in Iraq. Is General Casey responsible for the condition of the country today?

COL. KALEV SEPP (Ret.), U.S. Army: To assume that military operations by themselves would resolve the situation in Iraq is a bad beginning to any debate on this matter. But that General Casey had worked to improve the military situation in Iraq is the actual fact here.

On his arrival, he imposed order on what had been a very disorganized, almost chaotic military headquarters organization. He created a strategy where there had been none. There was no extending from another strategy.

And the other thing that he did that was particularly notable was that he took a field army, particularly the American Army, that was organized for conventional warfare, and reoriented it to counterinsurgency warfare. So the claims that he was responsible for doing all of these things are simply not based in fact.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Colonel Sepp, both you and Colonel MacGregor have talked about the bad situation he inherited. Take us back to mid-2004. What are you both referring to? What was the bad situation back then?

COL. KALEV SEPP: Well, what General Casey found on arrival was a completely fractured political military organization. The outgoing commander, Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez and the departing U.S. ambassador, Jerry Bremer, weren`t even on speaking terms with each other.

The Abu Ghraib situation was breaking at that time. The failure of having any kind of post-war plan or lack of a reconstruction plan was becoming very, very evident at that time. There was no plan of any sort in place for conduct of continuing operations; this is what General Casey inherited when he arrived.

RAY SUAREZ: And you`re saying, Colonel Sepp, that he grew on the job and did bring some order out of that situation?

COL. KALEV SEPP: Absolutely. He had to impose a discipline on the headquarters there to -- and that`s where he had to start. And then he became educated on the war, you know, which is a very complex situation, and then had to, over his two-and-a-half years, train up his own subordinate staff and commanders who, by the way, constantly rotated in and out of country.

So he had a continuing education challenge, so much so that he eventually had to establish his own counterinsurgency academy inside Iraq, because he wasn`t receiving the kind of support at that time that he needed from the main base back in the United States.

RAY SUAREZ: And, Colonel MacGregor, what do you say to that version?

COL. DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Well, I think the description that we got of what the situation was like when General Casey arrived is absolutely on target. It was a catastrophe. Abizaid and Sanchez presided over chaos. There was no coherent strategy of any kind.

But I think what we have to do is look at the current operations and look at what`s happened in the intervening period. You can establish a counterinsurgency academy, and that can make absolutely no difference to what actually happens on the ground.

The situation today in Iraq is worse than it was two, three years ago. Now, you can argue that he inherited a bad situation, but the notion that you set up this counterinsurgency academy and suddenly the force is transformed simply doesn`t hold up to closer scrutiny.

If you look at this big base strategy, the very act of establishing these fortresses in these towns in the faces of the Iraqi people sends a terrible message. The visual impact of your force is enormous.

If you look at all the so-called rules of how you conduct counterinsurgency operations, none of them call for these large, conventional sweeps that we conducted under General Casey.

In terms of killing, wounding, incarcerating thousands of people, this sort of thing produced and continues to produce enormous quantities of enemies, people that hate the United States of America.

We can talk endlessly about this, but the bottom line is: Things have not gotten better; they`ve gotten worse. And there just isn`t tremendous evidence for a sudden transformation in a change in strategy. It`s not there.

RAY SUAREZ: Colonel Sepp?

COL. KALEV SEPP: These points simply aren`t correct. General Casey had to work continuously against the tendency that the American military has in preparing to fight for conventional war to centralize, to build big bases.

He forced -- he tried to force continuously decentralized operations, decentralizing authority and responsibility down to the lowest level, because this is what is necessary to contend with the kind of enemies, the many enemies that we fight in Iraq.

He understood that. But he had to continuously deal with a larger institution that didn`t. And it took much longer to understand the nature of the war there than he did. As far as...

RAY SUAREZ: Colonel Sepp -- sorry, we heard a big excerpt from the hearings earlier. And some of the senators were quite upset at the situation in Iraq and were reading back to General Casey his own quotes from 2005 and 2006.

What they were trying to tell him was that either he wasn`t giving them the straight dope then or he isn`t now. Did he sound to you like a man who understood he was on the griddle today?

COL. KALEV SEPP: The points that were raised that I heard from Senator Jack Reed, Senator John Warner, Senator John McCain are valid in and of themselves. But the point that Senator Warner in particular made is very correct, which is that the military strategy is only one part of a comprehensive counterinsurgency strategy. And all of that is subordinate to a national policy for the country.

And in trying to pursue that policy, General Casey has had to contend, as he has pointed out, with three different Iraqi governments that have been -- that have changed during his tenure as commander there.

And since insurgencies are inherently political struggles, the necessity for a sound and functioning Iraqi government is one of the first and foremost things that has to be established. He`s had to contend with that while trying to conduct security operations at the same time.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Colonel MacGregor, you`ve heard Colonel Sepp lay out a fairly daunting list of aggravating factors that would have made it a pretty steep mountain to climb for almost anybody who was taking over in Iraq.

COL. DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: We`ve had problems with unity of command before; we certainly had those in Vietnam. But General Casey went in under rather unusual circumstances with the personal backing of the secretary of defense and the president.

If you are in command under those circumstances, your chief responsibility is to make your presence felt. If you`re dealing with people inside that institution who are resisting your guidance, are putting up resistance to what you want to do, then you fire them. You relieve them.

He had many general officers under his command. If there was that much resistance to all of the good ideas that Colonel Sepp is imputing to General Casey, where are all the general officers that he removed from command and replaced with other officers who were more able and more capable?

RAY SUAREZ: Did he do that, Colonel?

COL. KALEV SEPP: What I would say is that, having served on a strategy team under General Casey in 2004 and 2005 and 2006, is that the comprehension of the situation in Iraq was one of the most difficult things that the military organization and the U.S. embassy was able to get -- was trying to get a handle on during that entire time.

You can`t have a plan unless you understand what you`re up against. It`s very easy to indicate that, you know, sort of by dictate of memo or hard orders that instant results -- that, if instant results aren`t achieved, that the responsible officer should be relieved.

But this is not the kind of conventional war where, if you`re not making ground and seizing enemy objectives, and you have these very visible metrics of success, where you can weigh commanders. This is a slow, grinding insurgency. Most of these take 10 years to resolve. We`re in the fourth year of the war right now.

General Casey has taken -- was presented with a particularly difficult situation on arrival and has shaped the force to a point where the president`s strategy is not a departure from what he had in place but is an extension of it.

RAY SUAREZ: Let me ask a very quick question to close and get hopefully a very, very quick answer. Colonel MacGregor, is the Iraq General Casey is handing on to General Petraeus a credential that qualifies him for the Army`s top job?

COL. DOUGLAS MACGREGOR: Absolutely not.

RAY SUAREZ: Colonel Sepp?

COL. KALEV SEPP: General Casey will serve the field Army in Iraq in the best possible way, by being the chief of staff in the Army back in the United States, where he knows what is needed for the Army in Iraq.

RAY SUAREZ: Gentlemen, thank you both.

(BREAK)

JIM LEHRER: Still coming tonight: a Charlayne Hunter-Gault report on AIDS in South Africa; farewell, Molly Ivins; and what two former national security advisers said today about Iraq and Iran. NewsHour congressional correspondent Kwame Holman has that story.

SEN. JOE BIDEN (D), Delaware: This hearing will come to order.

KWAME HOLMAN: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee heard separately today from Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski. Scowcroft, who served under President Ford and the first President Bush, said American troops in Iraq should concentrate on supporting the Iraqi army.

BRENT SCOWCROFT, Former Adviser to President George H.W. Bush: With respect to the surge, I consider it a tactic rather than a strategic move. If it is successful in stabilizing Baghdad, that could begin to change the climate and bring a new self-confidence to Iraqi forces, which could be important.

But it will not end the problem; as I say, it is a tactic rather than a strategy. Our troops should concentrate on training the Iraqi army, providing support and backup to that army, combating insurgents, attenuating outside intervention, and assisting in major infrastructure protection.

That does not mean that the American presence should be reduced. That should follow success in our efforts, not the calendar or the performance of others.

As I said at the outset, there are no easy answers to the problems we face. As we move ahead, we will not find impatience, a quick fix, or seeking partisan advantage a friend to the U.S. national interest over the long run. It is going to be hard to make a bad situation better; it will be easy to make it worse.

KWAME HOLMAN: An exchange with Nebraska Republican Chuck Hagel became heated, as Scowcroft explained his view of the difficulty of measuring success in Iraq.

BRENT SCOWCROFT: When you`re training your child with training wheels on the bicycle, how do you know when to take the training wheels off? I don`t know.

SEN. CHUCK HAGEL (R), Nebraska: Well, again, I wouldn`t use that analogy, either. And when you`ve got 70 percent or more of the Iraqi people who don`t want us there, and over 60 percent say it`s OK to kill Americans, and we`re going to put a number of new troops in Baghdad, which you have just noted that you don`t, I guess to some extent, agree with -- you`ve noted that sectarian --those are sectarian issues -- so then isn`t there some jumble in all this?

And when you say we ought to have, in your words, "a success in our efforts," well, how do you measure a success in our efforts?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: It would be nice to be precise and to have all these benchmarks that everybody can see and so on. This is not that kind of a problem. We`re in a mess, and we`ve got to work our way out of it.

SEN. CHUCK HAGEL: Well, that`s true, but how do you do that?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: And we`ve got to work our way out of it, not into a bigger mess, a regional mess, where one of the results will make $60 oil look like a bargain.

SEN. CHUCK HAGEL: You do that by continuing to put more troops in Baghdad?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: I did not say put more troops in.

SEN. CHUCK HAGEL: Well, how do you work your way out of the mess?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: Well, I can repeat what I said. You focus on training; you focus on backing up the army; you focus on lines of communication; you focus on infrastructure; you focus on keeping outsiders from intervening; and you encourage reconciliation and consolidation of the government.

SEN. CHUCK HAGEL: Then, how do you measure that?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: The way you measure anything.

SEN. NORM COLEMAN (R), Minnesota: If they don`t reach benchmarks, how do we insist or let them know that they`ve got to do some things that have to be done for us to continue with the sacrifice of blood and treasure?

BRENT SCOWCROFT: The problem with benchmarks is, as this government struggles, if they don`t meet the first benchmark, we draw down some, almost making certain they can`t meet the second benchmark. And so it begins to look like a recipe for withdrawal and blaming the Iraqi government.

KWAME HOLMAN: Several senators quoted from a Scowcroft opinion piece in the New York Times last month in which he said, "American combat troops should be gradually redeployed away from intervening in sectarian conflict."

But today Scowcroft said that does not mean he opposes the president`s plan to send more combat troops into Baghdad.

BRENT SCOWCROFT: Baghdad is a special case. And if one can stabilize Baghdad, then it would have a great psychological impact in the country and also might give the Iraqi forces a greater sense of self-confidence than the article that you read indicates that they have. But it won`t change the situation fundamentally in Iraq.

KWAME HOLMAN: The man who once served as President Carter`s national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, testified next for a shorter time and with fewer questions because of Senate floor votes. He made his position clear at the outset.

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI, Former National Security Adviser to President Carter: I think it is obvious, therefore, that the American national interest calls for a significant change of direction.

KWAME HOLMAN: Brzezinski provided a scenario in which further deterioration in Iraq could lead to U.S. military action against Iran.

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: If the United States continues to be bogged down in a protracted, bloody involvement in Iraq -- and I emphasize what I`m about to say -- the final destination on this downhill track is likely to be a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the world of Islam at large.

The plausible scenario for a military collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks, followed by accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure, then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the United States blamed on Iran, culminating in a, quote, unquote, "defensive" U.S. military action against Iran, that plunges a lonely America into a spreading and deepening quagmire eventually ranging across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

KWAME HOLMAN: Brzezinski said some administration officials have overstated the threat Iran poses.

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: It is economically weak because it is an economy that hasn`t been thriving, and it`s one-dimensional, and it`s relatively isolated. And I think our policy has unintentionally -- I hope unintentionally; maybe it was devilishly clever, but I think unintentionally -- helped Ahmadinejad consolidate himself in power and exercise a degree of influence, which actually his position doesn`t justify.

KWAME HOLMAN: And the former national security adviser warned of what might happen in Iraq without a significant change in direction.

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: My horror scenario is not a repetition of Saigon, the helicopters on top of the embassy, and the flight out of the country. My horror scenario is that, by not having a plan -- and I understand my friend discussed yesterday perhaps the possibility of a secret plan that the administration has -- my fear is that the secret plan is that there is no secret plan.

(LAUGHTER)

SEN. JOE BIDEN: It`s a good bet.

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: My horror scenario is that we simply stay put, this will continue, and then the dynamic of the conflict will produce an escalating situation, in which Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks will be blamed on the Iranians. There`ll be then some clashes, collisions, and the war expands.

Now, as far as dealing with the rebuilding of Iraq in a setting in which we commit ourselves to disengage, and the commitment to disengage set jointly becomes a trigger for an international conference, I think a great deal depends, not on us engaging in nation-building, but on the surfacing of a genuine Iraqi motivation.

I personally view with great skepticism all this talk about us creating an Iraqi national army, creating a nation, nation-building and so forth. The problem is we have smashed the state; we have given an enormous opportunity for narrow sectarian interests and passions to rise.

KWAME HOLMAN: Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joe Biden, who held this series of Iraq hearings, said the committee soon will turn its attention to Iran.

(BREAK)

JIM LEHRER: Now, a new message brings new hope in the fight against AIDS in South Africa, a country with some of the highest infection rates in the world. NewsHour special correspondent Charlayne Hunter-Gault returns tonight with a report from Johannesburg.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT, NewsHour Special Correspondent: Overcrowded waiting rooms in an AIDS clinic at Helen Joseph Hospital, a public facility in Johannesburg, catering to the poorest of the poor, the sickest of the sick.

Men, women, old and young, with some 5.5 million people infected, about 18 percent of the population, South Africa leads the world in infection rates. Here AIDS patients who`ve been close to death are saved only by the anti-retroviral drugs the government -- under pressure -- began providing free at public clinics three years ago.

Half a million need them; only half are getting them. And even though this is a light day, there isn`t an empty seat in the place. Some have waited hours to be seen, some days.

SISTER SUE ROBERTS, Helen Joseph Hospital: We`ll get her all right if we can put her onto the medicine.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: Nursing sister Sue Roberts is in charge.

SISTER SUE ROBERTS: Your number is number 130, somewhere up there.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: Sister Sue has seen the worst of times, times, she said, that led to the crunch in her clinic. Here and around the country, some 60 percent of patients in pediatric and adult medical wards are HIV-related cases.

Sister Sue remembers when the president of this country, Thabo Mbeki, questioned the link between HIV and AIDS in 2000, though in recent years he`s remained silent on the issue, and when the health minister derided anti-retrovirals as "toxic." Critics call her Doctor Beetroot because she offered as an alternative traditional remedies, like the African potato, beetroot, and garlic.

SISTER SUE ROBERTS: The mixed messages have been a bit of a problem for the patients, because the patients don`t understand. And if they got sick because they were sometimes in denial about the HIV and sometimes, you know, worried about the treatment, because they saw so much negative publicity about the treatment.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: Patients who come from the often mean streets of overcrowded and underserved townships, like this one, in communities like these, where the majority are poor and without jobs or decent food, the AIDS epidemic is raging, especially among young women 15 to 24 years old.

Close to 5.5 million of the 47 million South African population are infected with HIV, and up to 2,000 patients are dying each day from AIDS complications, according to statistics from the Actuarial Society of South Africa.

But in recent weeks, the South African government has placed its deputy president, Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, in the forefront of this AIDS effort, and she seems to be turning around negative perceptions of the government`s performance. She`s called for intensification of the fight against the disease, imploring all sectors of the society to get on board.

Moreover, with the minister of health ailing, the deputy health minister, Aziz Pahad, has moved in an unprecedented way, publicly acknowledging the government`s confusing messages on HIV and criticizing the emphasis on traditional medicine touted by the ministers, saying, "It is absolutely irresponsible to say to people who are desperate and want to live, `Oh, go to your traditional healer if you want,` because which traditional healers do we know who know how to treat AIDS? I don`t know of any in my country."

The minister says she`s been told in the past she could lose her job, but that she believes the government now wants a clear and consistent message. And until recently, she was pulling out all of the stops to deliver it.

Top government officials have suddenly gone silent, saying that they`ve said all they have to say, that, in fact, there is nothing new about their approach to the HIV and AIDS pandemic. But in these streets and elsewhere, people living among and working with HIV-infected people say that there is new leadership, they see a new direction, and as a result they have new hope.

SISTER SUE ROBERTS: Things are definitely starting to turn around. We`re lucky because of the high volume of patients we see here.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: Also, new hope in the streets of places like the Alexander Township, people like these, part of an organization called Community Action. They`ve been trying a new approach to the pandemic: organizing street committees, similar to those that took the place of banned political organizations during apartheid.

Street committees make regular visits to neighbors, many of whom are ignorant about HIV-AIDS and, because of the stigma, are afraid to ask or be tested. They call their approach holistic, hoping to win over people first with offers of general assistance, and over time introduce the subject of AIDS.

In time, Andrenia Chalsky (ph) became comfortable enough to share that her sister passed away six months ago from AIDS complications. At this point, she`s learning more about the disease than she ever knew.

WOMAN WHOSE SISTER PASSED AWAY FROM AIDS: I learned a lot of things, because I didn`t know how AIDS worked. So now I know lot of things, I`m so happy, because it`s very sensitive.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: Mapula Prudence McKae is one of those teaching her neighbors now. But when her sister died of AIDS complications 10 years ago, she, too, was in the dark. Mapula believes more openness about AIDS could have safe saved her sister, as well as Andrenia`s (ph).

MAPULA PRUDENCE MCKAE, Community Action: Yes, if I was having that information about HIV and AIDS, yes, I think she would be alive.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: Some experts, like Dr. Francois Venter, head of the South African HIV Clinician Society, believe inaction over the past decade may have led to at least four million deaths. Mapula inherited her sister`s infant daughter, now 10, whom she has reared along with her own two children.

Her ignorance about AIDS meant it would be another 10 years before she realized that her little niece was HIV-positive. But at least she`s not one of the almost one million AIDS orphans in the country who`ve stretched the extended family beyond the limits, and who now must rely on the few, mostly poorly funded orphanages that have sprung up, or make it the best way they can, which often means on the streets.

But now, Mapula says, with more positive messages from government, her job is becoming easier.

MAPULA PRUDENCE MCKAE: When I pass the street, they just call me, "Mapula, come, come here, we want to ask you." Then they just ask, "You see in that house there`s something," then I`ll be proud for that. At least these people are listening when I`m talking to them.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: For years, activists like Mark Heywood and the Treatment Action Campaign tried talking to the government unsuccessfully. They only got the government`s attention when they won a court ruling, forcing it to dispense free Nevirapine, which helps prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV. Heywood also sees a new approach from government and welcomes it.

MARK HEYWOOD, Treatment Action Campaign: It creates a tangible hope where previously there was a despair and confusion.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: Heywood says, however, that he has yet to see the practical implementation of the new approach.

MARK HEYWOOD: It is a little early, but, you know, when you`ve got a thousand deaths a day -- as we do still in South Africa -- a little early is very, very late. And if you can advance the process by one week or two week or two months then, in fact, you have the potential to stop a lot of devastation and a lot of pain and a lot of suffering, and that`s the urgency that we still think is required.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: Dr. Francois Venter walks carefully through the streets of this tough neighborhood of poor immigrants from all over Africa. The HIV virus finds many homes here, especially among sex workers plying their trade for their survival and the survival of their families.

Venter`s clinic works with them, helping them to at least learn to protect themselves from HIV. He`s also working with the government on a new five-year strategic plan to tackle the AIDS pandemic, which he hopes new leadership will help set targets missing now and ways to measure progress.

But he also recognizes a new direction from government, calling it the most significant mind change he`s been party to in 12 years.

DR. FRANCOIS VENTER, HIV Clinicians Society: It`s teamwork talk rather than this individualist high-handed arrogance and unscientific and incredibly dismissive tone that`s been coming from government in the last 10 years.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: But Venter and others argue that the challenges posed by AIDS remain enormous, not least because of the number of new infections equaling the number of AIDS-related deaths and the growing orphan population, along with the infected millions who will need medication for the rest of their lives.

DR. FRANCOIS VENTER: These things are complex, you know, and they need calm, careful analysis. And I think, for the first time, I am starting to have confidence that governments are willing to sit down and engage in that debate.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: A debate that could make a real difference in the lives of people like these, their children, their friends and neighbors infected and affected, all remaining vulnerable to this disease without a cure.

(BREAK)

JIM LEHRER: Finally tonight, Molly Ivins, who died yesterday of breast cancer in Austin, Texas. She wrote books, essays, and they were always very funny and usually about very serious matters. We chose an example of her work that was broadcast here on the NewsHour in 1986. It was an essay on what Molly called "fine art in her home state."

MOLLY IVINS, Columnist: Many people will tell you Texas is beautiful. Mostly Texans will tell you that. Well, it`s true, in parts.

But there is a lot of Texas that`s not much to write home about. Parts of it are just plain homely, and then, here and there, ugly barely covers it.

But what does mankind do when faced with the challenge of ugliness? Man creates art, is what he does, builds his own beauty. And that`s what we do down here in Texas, too. And I`m about to show you some of it, so don`t say you weren`t warned.

A lot of our art is found in front of courthouses, so as to let folks know it`s official. Now, this here is a statue of a peanut found in the courthouse square in Floresville. And here`s a statue of a shrimp right here in downtown Aransas Pass.

In Seguin, we have a statue of a pecan. Not everybody likes it. Crystal City, Texas, happens to be the spinach capital of the universe. You may not have known that. It`s hard to make a good statue of spinach, so they built one of this guy instead.

Now, out here in Odessa, which is way to hell and gone on the other side of the state -- and I hope you all appreciate the trouble we went to getting here -- is this piece of art.

Now we are in Paris, Texas. Just like Paris, France, this Paris is famous for art. Here, for example, is a statue of a Brahma bull on the roof of the Fina Filling Station. This is a fine example of a genre of Texas art: the cow-on-building genre. I don`t know why we like to put cows on the roof, but I kind of like it.

Now, here in the Paris cemetery, we found the stone of the late Willet Babcock, which, as you can see, says, "Love never dies." Mr. Babcock passed on to the big ranch in the sky back in 1881. And you see here on his stone a statue of Jesus leaning on the cross. Looks a little tired to me.

Come around to the back side of Jesus, you`ll notice he`s wearing cowboy boots. The wind just lifted his robe a little so we can see them. I thought you`d like that.

Actually, the best statue of Jesus I ever heard about was one made out of tuna fish for the centerpiece of an Easter buffet. It had a little pimento stigmata in its outstretched little tuna-fishy hands, but I can`t show it to you, `cause it`s already been ate.

Some art does not do a thing in the way of overcoming ugliness; in fact, it just compounds the problem. This is probably the ugliest statue in the whole state. It`s the Goddess of Liberty, which normally resides on top of the state capitol, which houses the state legislature, which is bad enough without having this thing up there.

Right now, it`s down here being fixed because it started to come apart. But instead of taking advantage of this great opportunity to improve the statue`s looks, all they`re doing is restoring it to its original state of ugliness.

They made this new, unimproved statue of the Goddess of Liberty out of recycled aluminum, specifically out of old beer cans. Now, you know that is true on account of this is the "MacNeil-Lehrer show" and they wouldn`t let me make anything up.

What else would the state of Texas make a Statue of Liberty out of except old beer cans? It`s legal to drink while driving in Texas, which many Texans believe is an art in itself.

Now, here`s a statue I think would look good on the state capitol. It`s our state bug, the roach. Can we see how it would look on top of the capitol?

You all want to hear an old roach joke? You know how come all Texans wear pointy-toed boots? So`s we can stomp the roaches that hug in the corners.

Well, it sure has been a pleasure visiting with you all about art in Texas. Sincerely yours.

JIM LEHRER: Our friend, Molly Ivins, was 62 years old.

(BREAK)

JIM LEHRER: And, again, the major developments of this day.

Suicide bombings in the town of Hillah killed at least 45 Iraqis, wounded 150 others.

The outgoing U.S. commander in Iraq, General George Casey, said securing Baghdad could be done with a far smaller force than President Bush wanted.

The Senate voted for the first minimum wage increase since 1997, but it also included tax breaks that House Democrats may not accept.

And Exxon Mobil set another U.S. profit record in 2006, earning nearly $40 billion.

And a correction. Last night, we showed the wrong photograph in a story about the CIA allegedly kidnapping a German man. This is Khaled El- Masri, who says he was interrogated in Afghanistan and then released. We regret the error.

(BREAK)

JIM LEHRER: And, once again, to our honor roll of American service personnel killed in Iraq and Afghanistan. We add them as their deaths are made official and photographs become available. Here, in silence, are 10 more.

We`ll see you online and again here tomorrow evening, with Mark Shields and David Brooks, among others. I`m Jim Lehrer. Thank you, and good night.