The Outbreak of Sectarian Civil War in Iraq (2006)

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Shia, Sunnis, and the future of Iraq, we start with some background narrated by NewsHour correspondent Spencer Michaels. No one was killed in yesterday's attack on the Golden Mosque in Samarra, but more than a hundred have since died across Iraq after the destruction of one of the most revered mosques of Shiite Islam. Though Shia religious leaders called for restraint, dozens of Sunnis have been killed in one of the most violent rounds of sectarian clashes in Iraq since the American invasion three years ago. That violence came despite an appeal for peaceful protest by the country's leading Shiite cleric Ayatollah Sistani. Today, a Sunni clerical group said it points the finger of blame at certain Shiite religious authorities for calling for demonstrations. But one Shia cleric said today the violence was political, not motivated by theology.

Why did they bomb the dome at this time? Why wasn't it hit before? Beware, I swear by God it is a political game not a religious one. Beware of sectarian war through which they want to humiliate you and divide you. A U.S. military spokesman insisted civil war was not imminent. We're not seeing civil war igniting in Iraq. We're seeing a competent, capable Iraqi government using their capable Iraqi security force to calm the storm. Modern Iraq has been largely secular since its founding in 1921, but there have been long-standing tensions between Sunnis and Shiites. While Sunni Arabs make up only about a fifth of Iraq's 26 million people, they have long controlled the country's political institutions before and during the decades of Saddam Hussein's rule, and they also held much of the country's wealth. The Shia became a majority in the 19th century, but only since the ouster of Saddam Hussein have they begun to coalesce into unified political groups and parties, which in turn provoked anger and anxiety among many Sunnis.

Sunnis overwhelmingly boycotted elections for an interim government a year ago, paving the way for Shi'as to dominate. Sunnis turned out in large numbers in December's parliamentary elections, but Shiites maintained their political dominance. Politicians from Shi'as, Sunni, and Kurdish groups have been negotiating over a possible coalition government, and American officials have been strongly pushing for a national unity cabinet. Most Kurds, another 20% of the population, are also Sunni, but have a separate political agenda from the Sunni Arabs. But Sunni leaders have now broken off political talks with the Shiites and the Kurds. They said they won't return until the revenge attacks end.

For more on this, we're joined by Thabit Abdullah, a Baghdad Navy, who's an associate professor of history at York University in Toronto, and Vali Nasr, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and an adjunct senior fellow for Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Professor Nasr, what's it going to take to stop this, to calm the storm before all out civil war is triggered? Well, that is not going to be easy, because the magnitude of what happened yesterday presents a psychological shock for the Shi'as, a major turning point has occurred. It's important that the Shi'as realize that the national unity government would actually present security to them. It actually will safeguard their future, and the task right now is to be able to bring security to Iraq very quickly, and make sure that the politicians at the center are able to cobble together a united front. That's a heavy menu you just outlined. Is it possible to happen? Is it possible that it will happen?

Well, it's not likely that it will happen, or it will not happen very easily. I think yesterday what happened in Samarra has been a major turning point for the wars in Iraq, and now going back to the situation even before yesterday is a very tall order for Iraqi politicians as well as for the United States. Professor Abdullah, do you agree there's first of all that this is a turning point, and that, well, do you agree it's a turning point? Yes, I do, actually. Generally speaking, I agree with what Professor Nasr said, though there are some hopeful signs. One, as a historian, I'm always encouraged by the fact that there's never been a sectarian war in Iraq, though there have continuously been tensions. Secondly, just a couple of weeks ago, there were some very positive signs toward reconciliation between the different groups. And thirdly, there is now greater weight being played by the secular group that is headed by Ayad Allawi. Help us understand, is it in anybody's interest, in terms of the major groups, the Sunnis and the Shi'as, for there to be a civil war? Do they have any interest in this violence going on?

Professor Abdullah. Of course, absolutely not. And I believe that the far majority of Iraqis understand this very well. I was in Iraq about a year after the American invasion. And this was what was on everybody's lips, that a civil war would be disastrous for everybody. It would be a fire that would consume all. But, you know, these things can spin out of control. There are various groups, both domestic and regional. And I would point the finger directly at Iran here, and other groups also, that find in its interest to whip up this kind of hysteria to put pressure on the United States. Well, Professor Nasr, how do you analyze? Who is pushing this? And who has something to gain by their being a civil war? Well, a marginal element on both sides, the extremist elements on both sides have something to gain from the violence.

And it does not require the majority of Iraqis to want peace and harmony for this to happen. In other words, as we've seen in Yugoslavia, we've seen in Rwanda, in all of these cases, it is not those who have common relations with the other side that would define the violence, it's marginal groups that define the violence. I do not believe Iran is alone involved in Iraq. Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria.

The Outbreak of Sectarian Civil War in Iraq (2006)

Despite only amounting to around one-fifth of the population, Sunni Arabs had controlled Iraqi politics for decades, including during the rule of Saddam Hussein. However, upon occupying the country, the U.S. disbanded the Iraqi military and removed all members of Saddam Hussein’s Ba’ath Party from the government. Especially once democratic elections gave the Shia majority a strong hold on power, disaffected Sunni often joined the insurgency. So too did al-Qaeda extremists, who were able to gain a following in Iraq by playing to Sunni grievances against the U.S. occupation. Already brewing tensions and violence between Sunni and Shia Iraqis exploded in early 2006 after al-Qaeda bombed the Al-Askari Mosque in Samarra, one of holiest sites in Shia Islam. On this February 23, 2006, episode of The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, aired immediately after the mosque bombing, two Middle East experts express concern that the attack would lead to intensified sectarian violence. Indeed, the Al-Askari bombing is often considered the beginning of a Sunni-Shia civil war that led to tens of thousands of civilian deaths and marked the bloodiest years of the U.S. occupation.

The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer | NewsHour Productions | February 23, 2006 This video clip and associated transcript appear from 12:24 - 19:00 in the full record.

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