Party Realignment and the Breakdown of the New Deal Coalition (1972)

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[music] Tonight, "Assessment: Is there a New Majority?" with Impact senior correspondant, Sander Vanocur. American historians have long subscribed to the idea that the American party system moves in cycles, that every 28 to 36 years a major realignment occurs that shapes the nation's politics for a generation. According to the theory, such a critical election is overdue. And many, including Richard Nixon and George McGovern, believe that 1972 will be one of those landmark election years. Beginning with Jefferson's election in 1800, America's unique form of political party was established. 28 years later, Andrew Jackson led a new force, the common people, in winning the presidency. This signaled what was to become a deep-rooted tradition. In 1860, another turning point.

The modern Republican party emerged under Abraham Lincoln, producing the basic two-party alignment that we know today. McKinley's election in 1896 was another critical juncture. Though William Jennings Bryan lost his populist campaign, invigorated and broadened the Democratic party, and possibly initiated the progressive era. But it was Franklin Delano Roosevelt who fashioned the most enduring coalition in 1932, forging a powerful alliance of the South, organized labor, and the major ethnic blocs of American immigration. Elections have been fought along those lines for 40 years, but in the view of many, the old New Deal coalition is breaking up. If indeed, 1972 is a critical election year, what shape will the new majority take? We asked three respected political observers to offer their theories of what's happening. First, Frederick Dutton, whose book, Changing Sources of Power, emphasized the impact of greater participation by the young, women, and blacks. This country is approaching one of the great political watersheds in its history.

The crossover to a new era will perhaps come this year, perhaps not until 1976. But the nearing of a major threshold is unmistakable. The huge post-World War II baby boom is now coming of age. The share of young voters is increasing from 1 in 16 in 1968 to 1 in 8 this year. The generation condition in the 1960s will swell to 1 in 4 of all voters by 1976 and 1 in 3 by the end of this decade. Women are also massively adding to their political clout, likely up 10% in this decade, as great and actual numbers as the more publicized increase in the young vote. The Black vote is rising by over 50%. The Independent vote is up from 6 million in 1960 to 25 million now, and it is still rising. It is now as big as either the reliable Republican or Democratic base. Which way these elements will turn right, left, or nowhere is what the coming elections are all about. But the fact that we are at a key junction in our history could not be clearer. Kevin Phillips, a Nixon campaign advisor in 1968 and author of The Emerging Republican Majority,

supplied a quite different appraisal of the shifting in the old Democratic coalition. My contention is that the emerging majority lies on the Republican side, and that the November re-election of Richard Nixon will mark a watershed of American political history. The emerging Republican electorate is a new alignment of the South, the Heartland, and the Middle American North, including many of the formerly Democratic Catholic ethnic groups; Irish, Italians, Poles, and others. In terms of style, it will be an old morality coalition, in contrast to the new morality grouping of George McGovern. And despite the glib talk of the new left, most of the old populist constituency is lining up on the Republican side. Fittingly, the Nixon GOP is weakest in the fashionable Northeast, which is the traditional seat of minority politics in the United States.

Party Realignment and the Breakdown of the New Deal Coalition (1972)

In an episode of the National Public Affairs Center for Television (NPACT) series A Public Affair aired in the runup to the 1972 election, political commentators analyze emerging coalitional shifts in American politics. The Democratic Party had enjoyed control of Congress for nearly all of the previous four decades, owing in significant part to the “New Deal Coalition” of white southerners, organized labor, and ethnic and racial minorities. However, both political analysts highlighted in this clip point to ways that politics of the late 1960s and early 1970s was upending this balance of power. Democratic political operative Fred Dutton describes an emerging “coalition of conscience” driven by a growing voting population of young people and Black Americans. While this “New Left” was undeniably a formidable political force in this era, Republican strategist Kevin Phillips’s vision of a “Republican Majority” proved more prescient. He describes an “old morality” coalition that included formerly Democratic constituencies, such as white southern voters and urban Catholics. Indeed, soon after this program aired, Republican Richard Nixon won a landslide victory over George McGovern that included a sweep of the South and majority support from union members.

A Public Affair | NPACT | July 19, 1972 This video clip and associated transcript appear from 03:02 - 06:52 in the full record.

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