The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer : WETA : November 25, 2009 7:00pm-8:00pm EST; The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer

MacNEIL/LEHRER PRODTIONS

>> Lehrer: OD EVENING. I'M JIM LEHRER. ON THE "NEWSHOUR" TH WEDNESDAY: THE LEADSTORY: PRESIDENT OBAMA ANNOUNCES HEL GO TO THE GLOBAL CLIMATE SUMM, WHILE A NEW STUDY SHOWS CUTTING EMISSIS WILL MAKE PEOPLEEALTHIER. JUDY ODRUFF AND RAY SUAREZ HAVE OUR COVERAGE. EN, AFTER THE OTHER NEWS OF THE DAY,ARGARET WARNER EXPLORES THEILITARY OPTIONS FOR THE U.S. IN AFGHANISTAN PAUL SOLMAN REPTS ON THE GOLD USH OF 2009, AS THE VALUE OF THE DOLLAR PLUMMETS

>> IF YOU'RWORRIED ABOUT INFLATION, IF YOU'REORRIED ABT THE U. GOVERNMENT NOT BEING ABLE TO PAY ITS DEBT, IF YOU'RE WORRIED ABOUT WORRYING >Lehrer: AND JEFFREY BROWN GETS THE LAST ON TOYOTA'S RECALL OFORE THAN FOUR MILLION CARS AND TRUCKS. MAJOR FUNDING R THE NEWSHOUR WI JIM LEHRER IS OVIDED BY:

>> WHAT THE WORLD NEEDS NOW ENERGY. THE ENERGY TO GET THE ECONO HUMMG AGAIN. E ENERGY TO TACKLE CHALLENGES LIKE CLIMA CHANGE. WHAT IF THAT ENERGCAME FROM AN ENER COMPANY? ERYDAY, CHEVRON INVESTS $62 MILLION IN PEOPLE,N IDEAS-- SEEKING, TEACHING, BLDING. FUELING GROWTH AROD THE WORLD TO MOVE US ALL AHEA THIS IS THE POWER HUMAN ERGY. CHEVRON. ♪ WE ARE INTEL, SPONSORS OF TOMORROW. WELLS FARGO ADVISORS. TOGETHER, WE'LL GFAR.

>> AND BY BF RAILWAY. AND THE WLIAM AND FLORA HEETT FOUNDATION, WORKING TO SOLVE SOCIAL AND ENRONMENTAL PROBLS AT HOME AND AROUND THE WORLD. AND WITH THE ONGOING SPPORT OF THESINSTITUTIONS AND UNDATIONS. AND... IS PROGRAM WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCTING. AND BCONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWE LIKE YOU. TNK YOU.

>> Lehrer: THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATN ANNOUNCED A COMMITNT TO CUT GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS TODAY, ALG WITH PLANS FOR THE PRESIDENT ATTEND A KEY INTERTIONAL CLIMATCONFERENCE NEXT MONTH. JUDY WOODRF BEGINS OUR LEAD STORY COVERAGE.

>> Reporter: WHILE HE PRESIDENT'S ONLY PUBLI APPEARANCES DAY WERE THE TRADITIONAL PAONING OF A TURY AND A COMMUNITY SERVICE EVE WITH THE FIRST FAMILY-- BEHIND HE SCENES, WHITE HOUSE OFFICIALS ANUNCED THAT MR. OBAMA WOULD IN FACT ATTE THE GLOBACLIMATE CHANGE CONFERENCE IN DENMARK NEXT MTH. IN A STATEMENT, THE ITE HOUSE INDICATED THE PREDENT WAS "PREPARED TO T ON THE TABLE" S. EMISSIONS REDUCTION TARGETS, BEGINNING WITH 17% UT FROM 2005 LEVELS BY 2020. THE CUTS WOULD GROW TO: % BY 2025; 42% BY 2030 AND 8 BY 2050. THOSTARGETS ARE IN LINE WITH THELIMATE LEGISLATION PASSED IN JU BY THE U.S. HOUSE. A SENE BILL-- WHICH IS STILL BEING DEBATED-- CAS FOR A LARGER,0% CUT, BY 2020. CONGRESS WOULD ALSO HA TO RATIFY A TREATY THAT RESULTS FROM E MEETING. THE AOUNCEMENT COMES AS HE EUROPEAN UNION HAS CAED ON THE U.S. AND CHINA TO LAY OUT EMISSIONARGETS AT THE TALKS, CONTENNG THAT DELAYS BY THE TWO LARGEST EMITTERS OF GREENHOUSE GASESERE HAMPERING GLOB EFFORTS. BUT CHA'S CLIMATE ENVOY SAID TODAY THE ONUS SHLD BE ON DEVELOPED COURIES, LIKE THE U.S.

>> WHAT DEVELOPED UNTRIES SHOULDO IS TO TAKE SERIOUS ACTION ON WHETHER THEY HE BEEN TRUE IN WORDS AND ROLUTE IN DEEDS IN ORDER TOOLVE THIS PROBLEM WHI WAS CAUSED BY THEM.

>> Reporter: THE OGINAL HOPE WAS THAT THE CONRENCE WOULD RESULT IN A NEWREATY TO REPLACE THE 1997 KYOTO PROTOCOL, WHICH THE U.S. UIMATELY DID NOT TO SIGN. IT NOW APPEA MORE LIKELY THE SUMMIT WILL PRODU ONLY A FRAMEWORK FOR FUTU ACTION. STILL, T NEWS OF THE PRIDENT'S DECISION WAS WELCOMED BYANY, INCLUDING INDIA'S CLIMATENVOY-- SHYAN SARAN-- WHO WAS IN WHINGTON THIS WEEK FOR T STATE VISIT BY INDIAN PRIME MINIST MANMOHAN SINGH.

>> THINK TT THIS IS AN EXTREMELY SITIVE ANNOUNCEMENT, BECAUSE THE IS NO DOUBT THAT WHOUT THE ACTIVE-- AND I WOUL SAY ENTHUSIASTIC RE BY THE UNITED STES OF AMERICA, THESE NEGOTTIONS WILL NOT YIELD THE KIND OF THE ND OF RESULTS THAT WE ARE LOOKING R. TRUE, WEOULD HAVE HOPED AT THE UNITEDTATES OF AMERICA WOD HAVE BEEN MORE AMBITIOUS THAN WHAIT HAS INDICATED. >>eporter: INDIA IS ALSO ONE OF THE WOD'S LARGEST PRODUCERS OF GREENHOUSE GAS ISSIONS, BUT IS A RELATIVE NEWCOR TO AN INDUSTRIALIZED ONOMY. SARAN SA THE COUNTRY HAS CONCERNS THAT A CLIMATE AGREEMENCOULD STIFLE ECONOMIC DEVELOENT.

>> FOR US, CLIMAT CHANGE IS NOT JUST A SEPATE ISSUE, IT IS INTERMIXED WITH OUR DEVELOPMENTAL, YOKNOW, ISSUES ITSELF. SO HOW WE BALANCE,OU KNOW, THE PROBLEM OF CLIMATE CHANGEITH THE OTHER STRESSES AND STRNS THAT THE COUNT IS GOING THROUGH AS IS PROCESS OF SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMAON, WE WOU HOPE THAT THERE IS SOE UNDERSTANDING OF THAT CHALLEE THAT WE FACE.

>> Reporter: MNTIME, A SERIES OF STUDIES RELEED TODAY IN THE BRITISH MEDIL JOURNAL "THE LACET" COULD GIVE ANOTHER BOOS TO ADVOCATES OF ADDRSING CLIMATE CHANGE. THE STUDIES FND THAT CUTTING CARBON EMISSIONS COULDAVE MILLIS OF LIVES-- MOSY BY REDUCG THE NUMBER OF DEATHS FROM HEARAND LUNG DISEASES.

>> CLIMATE CHANGE IS T ONLY ABOUT ENOMICS AND THE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS ABOT YOUR HEALTH.

>> Reporter: LINDA RNBAUM IS RECTOR OF NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL ALTH SCIENCES AT N.I.H., WHICH HELPED FANCE E STUDIES.

>> AND IF WE AVOID INCREES IN OZONE, AVOID MORE HOSPITAL VISITS. WE AVOID MORE DOCTORVISITS AND WE ACTUALLY AVOIDEATHS. WE KN, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT BLACK CARBON WHICH SETTLES OUT RY QUICKLY AND HE IMMEDIATE BENEFITS AND INCREASPEOPLE'S HEALTH. WE KNOW AT THINGS LIKE METHANE WHICH ARE ODUCED VARIETY OF SOURCES HAVE MAJORMPACTS ON OUR HLTH AND WELL BEING, AND BY PVENTING THEM, WE CAN PREVENT CARDIOVCULAR DISEASE, WE CAN PRENT RESPIRATORY DIASE, PREVENT CERTAIN CANCERS, AND WE CAN PRENT OBESITY.

>> ReporterDESPITE SUCH REPORTS, A NEW LL FOUND THE PERCENTAGE AMERICANS WHO BELIEVE IN GLOBAL WARNG FELL OVER THE PASYEAR, FROM 80% TO %. THAT COULD MAKE PASSING A CMATE BILL AND REACHING A GLOBALGREEMENT ALL THE MORE DIFFICULT.

>> Lehrer: RAY SUAREZ HAMORE ON TODAY'S DELOPMENTS.

>> Suar: WE GET TWO VIEWS NOW ON BOTH THE SUBSTANCE AND IT MES FROM MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER, PROFEOR OF GEOSCIENCES AND INTEATIONAL AFFAI AT PRINCETON UNIVERSITY. HE IS ALSO A MEMBER OF E INTERGOVERNMENL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHAE, WHICH WON THE NOL PRIZE IN 2007. AND, SAMUEL THERNSTROM, RESENT FEOW AT THE AMERICAN TERPRISE INSTITUTE AND A FORMER MEMB OF THE WHITE HOUSE COUNC ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY URING THE GEORGE W. BUSH ADMINISTRATION. MICHAEL OPPENHMER, IT WASN'T ALAYS CLEAR THAT PRESIDENT OBAMA WAS GOING TO COPENHAGEN. YOU WELCOME THI DECISION BY TH WHITE HOE.

>> YES, CEAINLY, IT'S A VERY GOOD DEVELOPMEN THE U.S., UNTIL RECENTLY, THE WORLD'S BIGGEST EMITTER OF THESE GASES. IT'S BEEN VIEWED AS THE BIEST OBSTACLE AT THE NETIATIONS BECAUSE THE RELATIVE DURATE POSITION OF THEAST EIGHYEARS BEFORE THE OBA ADMINISTRATION, AND THE U. I ILL THE WORLD'S LITICAL LEADER. PUTTING THAT TOGETHER WITH OBAMA'S LEADERSP SKILLS, I THINK THIIS A VERY IMPORTANT DECISIO IT WILL GET THE NEGOTIATIONSFF TO A VERY SOUND STAR

>> Suar: SAMUEL THERNSTR, ARE YOU GLAD THE PRESIDT'S GOING TO KOPP HAGUEN.

>> I AM GLADE'S GOING AND I AGREE WITH MR. OPPENHEIMER IT WILLROBABLY HELP THE NEGIATIONS SOMEWHAT. IT IS SURPRISING PRESIDE HAS CHOSENTO GO EARLY IN THE CONFERENCE THER THAN LATE WHEN OTHER HEADSF STATES LL BE AARRIVING. HE ALWAYS SD HE WOULD ATTEND F HIS PRESEN COULD SEA THE DEAL WITH OTH GLOBALEADERS. IT IS HA TO SEAL THE DEAL WHEN HEY AREN'T THERE.

>> Suarez:E WILL BE ACPTING THE NEL PEACE PRIZ, BUT GOING TO KOPPEN HAGUEN AFTER.

>> HE ULD HAVE DEDED THAT ATTENDINGOPENHAGEN IN THE CLOSING DAYS WHEN THE FINAL DEAL WOULD BE MADE WAS HIS FIRST MO IMPORTANT PRIITY FOR HIS TRAVEL HEDULE THAT MONTH.

>> Suarez: MICHAEL OPPENIMER, ONG WITH THE ANNOUNCEMENT TAT HE WAS GOING CME SPECIC YEARS D SPECIFICARGETS FOR REDUCTION USING 20FIEF A BASELINEOR LOWERING THE EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES FROM ALL URCES IN THE UNITED STATES, SIGNIFICANT ANNOUNCENT?

>> YES, DEFITELY. THERE HAD BEEN A THOHT THAT THE PRESIDENT WOULREFRAIN FROM PUTTING ANYTHING PSK ON THE TABLE UNTIL THE CONGRE HAD ACTED. THE HOUSE HAS ACTED IF THESE NUMBERS ARE IN LIN WITH WHAT THE HOUS HAS IN THEIR BILL,UT THE SENATE HAS JUST REPORTEDDED SOMETHG OUT OF COMTTEE. NOTHING S REACH THE FLOOR. SO BY PUTTING H FORCE BEHIN THESE NUMBERS, THE PRESINT IS SORT OF SETTINGP A NEGOTIATING LINE WITTHE CONGRESS AND INDICATING PROBABLY WHAT HE FEELS IS THE MINIMU BENTH WHENHESENATE SHOULDN'T GO AND A MINIMUM OF WT THE WORLD NEEZ NEEDS. A WARMING OF THREE TO FOUR DEGREESAHRENHEIT PUTS US IN THE NGER ZONE AS FAR AS GLOBAL WARMING IS CONCERNED, AND THESE SORTS OF EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS ARE CONSISTENTWITH WHAT WE NEED TO GET OD START COMBATTING TH WARMING.

>> Suarez: PROFESSOR, ISHAT METHING NEW FOR THE UNITED STES, SPECIFIC ARS AND SPECIFIC REDUCTION PERNTAGES?

>> BACK IN THE CNTON ADMINISTRATION, THE U.S. DID AGREE TO SPECIFIYEARS AND SPECIC REDUCTION PERNTAGES, AND THEY WERE EMDIED IN THE KYOTO PROTOCOL WHH PRESIDENT INTON NEVER SENT UP TO THE SENATE TO RATIFYND WHICH PRESIDENT BUSH WITHDRE FROM. DUNG THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION THE U.S. REFRAND FROM AEEING TO SPECIFIC TARGETSND TIMETABLES A VARIOUS TIMES THE BUSH ADNISTRATION WAS AMANTLY OPPOSED TO THE WHO CONCEPT. THIS HAS NOW COME FULL CCLE AS THE OBAMA ADMINISTTION ACCEPTS THE NOTION THAT IT'S THENLY WAY TO DEAL WITH THISROBLEM. WE NEED BINDIN TARGETS. THEHAVE TO BE ENFORCEABLE. COUNTES HAVE TO HAVE A WAY TO COMY.

>> Suarez: SAEL THERNSTROM, 'S ABOUT BEEN BA DOZEN YEARS SINCE THE TIME THE PROSSOR IS TALKING ABOUT. HAS A CONSENSUSUS ERGE IN THE ITED STATES, NOT ONLY IS IT A DIFFERENT SENATE BECAUSTHERE ARE MOREEMOCRATS AND FEWER REPUBLICANS THAN THERESE TOi÷ BE BUT A DIFFERENTENATE AND A MORE LIKELY SENATE TO PASS A REDUCTION TARGET BECAUSE RE PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT THIS IS SOMETHING THAT'SACTUALLY HAPPENG IN & A DANGER TO THE OUNTRY AND THE WORLD?

>> I DON'T THINK MRE PEOPLE BELIE THAN THAN THEY DID AT THE TIME KYOTO WAS ORINALLY NEGOTIATED. THERE'S NO QUESTION. THE CONGRESS IS MOREESPINELLA DI SUPPOSEDOWARDS ACTION AND I STL THINK WE WILL N SEE A IMATE BILL THIS YEAR, ALTHOUGH IT WAS EECTED WHEN PRESIDE OBAMA WAS ELECTE I THINK WE WILL PROBABLY NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT BILL NEXT YEAR OR ANY TIME IN THIS PRESIDENT YEAH TER

>> Suarez: WHY YOU SAY THAT?

>> I THINK PRESIDT OBAMA HA NOT BEEN ABLE TOUT AFFECT THE KIND OF COALITION IN CGRESS THAT WOU SUPPORT A BILL. I THINK THE BASIC PARAMETERS OF THE BILL TH CAME OUT OF HOUSE WAS DETERMINED OHIGHLY PARTISAN BASIS. THERE REALLWAS NOT A SIGNIFICANT EORT TO FI OMMON GROUND WITH REPUBLINS ON AT, AND THE PROCESS ONLY BEAME MORE PARTISANHEN IT MOVETO THE SENATE, WHERE SENAT BOXER AND COMMITE WERE AT LOGGEEADS WITH THE MEMBERS OF HER COMMITTEE WHO BOYTTED THE COMMITE HEARING RATHER THANARTICIPATE IN THE MARK-UP PROCESS. THEACT THAT SENATOR BOR WAS NEVER ABLTO HAVE A MARK-UP ON HER BILL AND NO OPPORTUNITY TO NEGOTIATE COMMON GROUNDITH THE REPUBLICANS MEANS WE HE A PROCESS ITHE SENATE THAT HAS BEEN VIRTUAL PARALYZED. IHINK GOING INTO A DIFFICULT ELEION YEAR NEXT YEAR WITH A DFICULT ECONOMY, WE WILL PROBABLSTILL HAVE DOUBLE-DIGIT UNEMPLOYMENT NEXTEAR, THE BILLS MOVING IN CONGESS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO ADDRSS PEOPLE CONCERNS ABOUT THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES.

>> Suarez: PROFESS, WHAT DO Y MAKE THE SAMUEL THERNSTROM'S POLITICAL ANALYS AND HIS TIMELINE?

>> WELL, I SAGREE WITHBOUT EVERYTHING HE SAID. MAYBE WE OULD MAKE A WARJ HEE. I THI THERE WILL BE LEGISLAON THAT WILL PASS THE SENATE AND THE BILLS LL BE RECONCILED AND THE PRESIDENT WILL SIGN IT I THINK AROUND JUNE. ANTHE REASON I BELIEVE THAT IS THAT I THINK A BIPARTIS COALITION HEAVILY WEIGHTED WITH DOCRATS, BUT BIRTISAN NOETHELESS, WILL DEVELOP WITH SENATORSIKE LINDSEY GRAHA AND COURSE JOHN McCAIN SHOWING A STRONG INTEST IN GETTI SOMETHING DONE ABOUT TH PROBLEM. ANIN THE CASE OF McCA FOR INSTANCE, HE'S BEEN INERESTED IN THIS FOR A LONG TIME. SI THINK TH ASTHE PRESIDENT WORKS THROUGH T HEALTH CARE LISLATION, WHICH HAS REALLY BEEN THE OBSTAC TO GETTING YTHING DONE ABOUT VIRTUALLY ANYTHING ELS IHINK CLATE WILLE NEXT UP. I THK BY THE PRESINT BEING VERY FIRMTODAY AND PUTTING DOW SPECIFIC TARGETS HE'S BICALLY TAKENWNERSHIP OF THIS ISSUE AND HE KNOWS THA NOW HE THAT'S GET IT PASSED OR ELSE IT WO'T LOOK VERY GOOD FO HIM. HE ALSO KNOWS TT THE CIMATE IS WARMING AND THI IS A VERY SERIOUS ISSUE, PROBABLY THEOST IMPORTANT ONE H WILL DEAL WITH IN HIS TERM. SO I EXPECT HIM TO FULFILL THOSE PROMISES. Suarez: LET'S QUICKLY TUN IN THE TIME WE HAVE LFT TO THE TWO OTHER PLAYERS THE WORLD STAGE INDIA AND CHINA. THERESIDENT HAS HADTOP-LEVEL MEETINGS WITH TH LEADERS FR BOTH COUNTRIE AND IN JUDY WOODRUFF'S REPORT YOU HARD DIA WISHING THE AMERICAN TARGETS HAD BEEN MORE AMBITIOUS AND CHNA SAYING ANY REGIME SHOULDN'T APPLYO CHINA, JUST TOHE LONG-TERM INDUSTRIAL-EMITTINGOUNTRIES. PROFESR, A QUICK ANALYSIS >WELL, THERS BEEN A SEA CHANGE IN THE WAY BOTH CHIN AND INA APPEAR TO VEW THIS ISSUE. WHEN I TENDED THE NEGIATIONS RUNNING UP TO COAT EXPO BEYOND, THEY USED TO S ON THEIR HANDS AND DO NOTHING EXCEPT THROW BOMBS AT E DEVELOPED COUNTES KE THE UNITED STATES. RECENTLY THERE IA LOT MORE INTERESTG IN ENGAGING. CHINA NOW THE WORLD' LARGEST EMITTER AND IT DOESN LIKE GETTING THEINGERS POINTEDT IT INSTEAD OF UNITE STATES. CONTIES THAT IT'S GOIN TO BE FOUND GUIL OF NOT MOVING TO PRECT THE WORLD IF IT DOESN'T DO SBHG CLITE CHANGE. ND THE SECOND REASONIS TH HIGHS AN INDIANS HAVE DONE ANALYSES OF WHA CLIMATECHANGE EANS FOR THEIR COUNTES. BOTH OF THEM ARE VERY VULNERABLE. THEY'RE COUNTRIES THA ARE BY AND LARGE POR. THEY HAVE A LOT OF EXPURE, A LOT OF EXPORE TO SEA LEVEL RISE, A LOT OF EXPOSU TO DROUGHTND EXTREM HEAT. AND INTEALLY, THEIR SCIENTIST AREELLING THEM THEY NEED TO DEAL WITH T PROBLEM. SO THE HANDWRITIN IS ON T WALL FOR BOTH THOSE COUNTRIES. NOW, THA DOESN'T MEA THEY'RE GOING TO AGREETO BDING TARGET AS COP HAGUE AN. MEANS WE'RE IN A NEGOATING PHASE NOW, ITILL LAST SOME YEARS AND EVENTUALLY T CHINESE ANDNDIANS WILL COME AROUND SGLAR SGLI SAMUEL THERNSTROM WHAT YOU THINK YOUSAW FROM THE CHINESE AND TINDIANS?

>> I DON'T SEE A SEA CNGE IN THEIR ATTITUDE. THEY'RE HOLDING FIRM-- YES THEY ARE WIING TO BE PRCTIVE ON CLIMATE CHGE. THEY'RE CERTAINLY INTERESTED IN INVESTING HEALY IN CLEAN ENERGY ICH HELPS THEIR CONVENTIONALOLLUTION PROBLEMS, THEIR ENERGY SECURITY PROBLEMS, AND HELPS TH WITH THEIRUBLIC IMAGE ON THEWORLD STAGE. T BOTH COUNTRIES HAVE EN VERY CLEAR SAYING THEIRIRST COMMITMENT IS TO THEIR MILLIS OF TIZENS WHO ILL VE IN POVERT

>> Suarez: VER QUICKLY, ERICAN LEADERS HAVE LONG ID UNLESS THE CHINESE AND INIANS ARE ON BOARD WITH AN AMERIC PLAN TH WON'T BUDGE. DAY WE HEARD THE CHINESE LEADERS SAYING WE'RE N IN NTHIS. IT'S SETHING FOR THE AMICANS TO DOR THE E.U..

>> I THINK THAT'S AN INITIAL BARGAINS POSITION. I EXPECT TO US MAKE A LO OF PROGRESFROM THAT POINT.

>> EV TODAY'S WHITE HOUS STATEMENT DICATED THAT PRESIDNT OBAMA'S PROPOSED TARGETS WERE CONNGENT UPO ACTION FROM THE DEVELOPING WORLD AS WELL.

>> I THINK YOU MADE ANMPORTANT POINT, SAM, WHICH I THE CHINESE HA FIGURED OUT HOW TO MAKE MONEY OFF DEVELOPING RENEWABLE ENERGYND EFFICIENT TOMOBILES. THAT ULTIMATELY, ISWHY THE CHINESE AREOING TO MOVE TO SOVE THIS PROBLEM AND TT'S WHY THEY'RE GOING TO COOPERATIVE. AND THE U.S. SHOULDE MOVING QUKLY SO THEY DON'T GET OUT-COMPETE BT CHINESE AND NOT WORRY SO MUCH ABOUT THE CNESE, WHAT THEY'REOING TO DO, WHAT THEYE NOT GOING TO DO. WE SHOULD MOVING TO TAKE THE MARKETERSTHAT OTHERWISE GOING TO GET.

>> Suarez:ENTLEMEN, THANK YOU, BOTH.

>> A PLEASURE.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Lehrer: THRECLIMATE EXPERTS OFFER ALYSIS ON WHAT THE COPENHAG SUMMIT MIGHT ACCOMPLISH OUR WEB SITE: nshour.pbs.org. IN OTR NEWS TODAY, MILLIONS OF AMERICA WERE ON THE GO FOR THANGIVING, AS THE HOLIDAY SSON BEGAN. ECONOMIC CONDIONS KEPT SOME PEOPLE HOME, AND OTHERS SEARCNG FOR TRAVEL ALTERNAVES. "NEWSHOUR" CORRESNDENT KWAME HOLMAN HAS OUR REPO.

>> Reporter:HEY CROWDED THE NATION'S HIGHWAYS, AIN STATIONS AND AIRPOR TODAY. YEAH, WE'RE EXCITED. I'M REY TO GO HOME FOR THANKSGIVING. AT DROIT'S METROPOLITAN RPORT, SECURITY LINES WERE LONG, EVEN THOUGHIR TRAVEL IS DOWN 6.7% THIS YE COMPARED TO LAST. JUST 38 MILLN AMERICANS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVELROM HOME THIS WEEKEND, UP SLIGHTLY FR LAST YEAR, BUT STILL FARELOW THE LEVELS OF A FEW YEARS O IN BETTEECONOMIC TIMES. HERET WASHINGTON'S UNION STATION, MORE PEOPLE ARE TURNG TO TRAINS ASA CHEAPER WAY TO GET HOME FOR THE HOLIDAS. DANNY MCGRH WAS HEADED TO BOSTON, HIS THANKSGIVING TRADITION OF THE LAST SEVEL ARS.

>> IT S CHEAPER THAN FING, BUTS FAR AS COMFORT AND CONVIENCE DID IT LAST YEAR, IT BEATS THE BUS.

>> Reporter: AMANDA NEWMAN IA TUDENT AT GEORGE WASHINGTON UVERSITY.

>> I KNOW SOME PPLE ARE CHSING TO STAY BACK, WHEN YOUSTUDENT, IT'S HARD.

>> Reporter: JENNA AMWELL SAID SHE WOULHAVE LEFT TOWN SOONER THAN THIS THASGIVING EVE, BUT SHE HAD TO WORK UNTIL TOY TO SAVENOUGH MONEY TO TRAVEL HOME.

>> RIGHT NOW, HAD TO PUSH THE TRAIN BACK A FEW TIMES,ECAUSE WORJUST HAD TO HAPPEN AND I NDED TO MAKE THE EXTRA NEY.

>> Reporter: AMAK PREDICTED TODAY WOULD BE ITS BUSIEST AY OF THE YEAR WITH RIDERHIP OF ABOUT 125,000-- 66% AVE A NORMAL DAY. BUT MORE AN EIGHT IN TEN AMRICANS TRAVELING THIS WEEKE WIL BE ON THE HIGHWAYS. N ANDERSON OF "TRIPLE A."

>> I THK OUR NUMBERS ARE REFLECTING AN IMPREMENT IN THE ECONOMY, BUT WE'VGOT A LONG WAY TO GO TO GET BACK TO TH KI OF TRAVEL WE WERE SEEING PRE-RECESSION.

>> Reporter: NATIOLLY, GAS PRICES ERAGE MORE THAN 70 CENTS A GALLOHIGHER THALAST YEAR. BUT THIS YEAANDERSON SAID DRIVING MAKES THE MOST FINCIAL SENSE.

>> WE ALL REMEMBER $3 GAS A $4 GAS AND EVETHOUGH THIS IS UP IS SEEMS RELATIVELY INEXPENSIVE.

>> Rorter: WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF T COUNTRY WERE GOOD, SO THERE WERE FEWRAVEL DELAYS.

>> Lehrer: ECONOMICUMBERS OUT TODAY GAVE AN RLY BOOST TO THE THANKSGIVING SHOPPING WEEKE. THE COMMERCE DEPARTMENT REPOED CONSUMER SPENDINPICKED UP IN OCBER, RISING SEVEN-TENTHS OF A PERCENT. AND THE WEEK'S JOBLESS CLAIM DIPPED BELOW00,000 FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JANUARY THOSE NUMBERS-- AND A RISEN NEW HOME SAL-- PUSHED STOCKS WALL STREET UP TODAY. THE DOW JONES INSTRIAL AVERAGE GAIN 30 POINTS TO CLOSE AT 10,464. THE NASDAQ ROSE MORE TN SIX POINTS TO CLOSE AT 176. U.S. HEALTH OFFICIALS TUED EIR ATTENTION TO A RISE IN BACTERIA INFECTIONS IN PATIENTS WITH INE FLU. DOCTOANNE SCHUCHAT AT THE CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROLND PREVENTION CALD THE SPIKE "WORRISOME. SHE TOLDEPORTERS THE SECONDARY FECTIONS ARE USUALLY SEEN IN PEOPLE OVER 65, BUNOW ARE STRIKING YOUNG ADULTS. A CRT IN PAKISTAN H CHARGED SEVEN MEN IN LAST YEAR'SHREE- Y ASSAULT ON MUMBAI, INDIA. THE INDICTNTS CAME ON THE EVE F THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF THE SIEGE. 166 PEOPLE WERE KILLED THE TY FORMERLY KNOWN AS BOMBAY ALL SEVEPAKISTANI SUSPECTS-- INCLUDING THE LEGED MASTERMIND PLEADED NOT GUILTY. THEY FACTHE DEATH PENALTY IF CONVICTED. ISRAEL HAS APPROVED A 10-MOTH FREEZE ON BUILDINNEW SETEMENTS IN THE WEST BANK. PALESNIAN NEGOTIATORS REJECTED THE OFFER, BECAUSE T FREEZE DOES NOT INCLUDE NEIGHRHOODS IN EAST JERUSALEM. PRIME MINISTER NETANYAHUAID HE HOPEDTHE MOVE WOULD HELP REVIVE MIDDLE EAST PEACE TALKS. IN WASHINGTON, BOTHECRETARY OF STATE CLINTONND HER SPECIAL ENVOY TO THE REGN-- GEORGMITCHELL-- WELCOMED THE ISRAELI DECISION. WHILE THEY LL SHORT OF A FULL FREEZE, WE BELIEVE E STEPS ANNOUNC BY THE PRIME MINISTER ARE SIGNICANT AND COULD HAVE SUBSTANTL IMPACT ON THE GROUND. FOR THE FIRSTIME EVER, AN ISELI GOVERNMENT WILL STOP HOUSG APPROVALS AND ALL NEW CONSTRUCTION OF HOUNG UNITS AND RELATED INFRARUCTURE IN WEST BANK SETTLEMENTS. THAT'A POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT.

>> Lehrer: ISRAEL'S OFR ONLY APPLIES TO NEW CONSTRUCTIO THAT MEANS SOME 300 PRE- APPROVED HOMES WILL CTINUE TO BE BLT. TOP OFFICIALS IN BRITA ACKNOWLEDGEDHERE WAS NO EDENCE SADDAM HUSSEIN HAD WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTN BEFORE THE 2003 INVASN. THAT TESTIMONY CAME IN T SECOND DAY OF A MAJOR INQUI INTO BRITAIN'S DECION TO GO TO WAR IN AQ. WE HAVE A RORT FROM PAUL DAVIES OF "INDEPEENT TELEVISION NEWS."

>> Reporte HE HAS EXISTING AND ACTIVEMILITARY PLANS FOR USE OF EMICAL AND BILOGICAL WEAPONS WHICCOULD BE ACTIVATED WITHIN 45MINUTES. > Reporter: IT WAS ABOVE ALL ELSE, THE BELF TH SADDAM HUSSEIN HAD WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION THAT LED BTAIN TO WAR. BUT KEY AISORS TO TONY BLAIR IN 2003 GAVE A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE THREAT SDAM PED. ILLIAMRWIN WAS DIRECTO OF INTERNATIOAL SECURITY AND THE CHAIRMAN THEOINT INTELLIGEN COMMITTEE. E TOLD THE INQUIRY JUST DAYS BEFOREHE STAR WAR LATEST INTELLIGENCE QUESTIONED WTHER ADDAM WAS ABLE TO USE CHEMICAL D BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS AT ALL.

>> WE DID, IN THEERY FINAL DAYS BEFORE MILITARIARCH RECEIVE SOME ON C USE, THAT IT WAS DISASSEMBLED, THAT HE MIGHT NOT HAVE THE MUNITIONO DELIVER IT.

>> Reporter: THE FORER HEAD OF UNTER-PROLIFERATION SAID TH BELIEF THAT SADDA HADEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTIONAS SO RONG IT CLOUDED THEIR VIEW.

>> WE HAD GOTTEN INTO THE HABIT OF- GOTTEN OUT OF THE HABIT OF QUESTNING OURSELVES AND SOMETHING WE HA GIVEN A LOT OF ATTENTION TO NCE TO MAKE SURE IT DOESN'T HAPPEN AGAIN.

>> Reporter: FROM THE INQUIRY CHAIRMAN A POINTED QUESON.

>> HAS ANYTHING TURNEDP?

>> NOT OF SIGNIFICANCE,.

>> NOTHINGOF SIGNIFICANCE, THE ANSWER.

>> Leer: THE OFFICIALS ALSO SAID IR AND LIBYA WERE BRIIN'S MAIN SECURITY CONCERNS BEFORE THE INVASIOTOOK PLACE. AND STILL TO COME OTHE "NEWSHOUR"ONIGHT: THE DOLLAR IS DOWN, ANDOLD IS UP. PLUS, FR MILLION TOYOTAS RECALLED. THAT FOLLOWS A LOOK AT TH MILITARY OPIONS PRESIDENT OBAMA VIEWED FOR HIS DECISIONS ON AFANISTAN. THE WHITE HOUSE SAID TOD MR. OBAMA WOULD ADDRESS THNATION ON TUESDAY, AT 8:00 M. FROM THE U.S. MILITARY ACADEMY A WEST POI. MARGARET WARNEHAS MORE ON THE OPTIONS.

>> Warner: ON MOND NIGHT, ESIDENT OBAMA WRAPPED UP THE LASOF TEN MEETINGS WITH HIS NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM. FOR MONTHS, THEY HAVEEEN REVIEWING AND DEBATINTROOP IREASE OPTIONS FOR AFGHANISTA -- REPORTEDLYANGING FROM 10,000 T80,000. THE OPTIONS WERE PRESENTEBY HIS NEW COMMANDER ON THE GUND, GENERAL STANLEYcCHRYSTAL. HEY WOULD AUGMENT THE 68,000 U.S. OOPS THERE NOW. NATO COUNTES HAVE CONTRIBUTED ANOTR 35,000 FORCES. FOR MORE ON WH COULD BE DONE WITH DIERENT OPTIONS, WE TURN TO ELIZABETH BUMIER, PENTAGON CORRESPONDT FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES D MARK THOMPSON, NATIONAL SECURITY CORRPONDENT F "TIME" MAGAZINE. WELCOME TO YOU BOTH. RST OF ALL, ELIZABETH, WHAT WAS REALLY T RANGE OF OPTIONS THAT WAS GIVEN ACTIVE CSIDERATION HERE?

>> IT WASREALLY ITS WHITE HOUSE QUKLY DISCARDEDHE 8000 OPTION AS WAYTOO BIG AND NOT DOLE WITH THE ARMY TAT THE UNITED STATES HAS RIGHNOW.

>> Warner: IF WE-- LET'S START AT THE HIGHEND,0,000. SED ON THE UNCLASSIED MEMO THAT EVERYBODY SAZ HEEN OF GENERAL McCHRYSTAL, AND YOUR OWN REPTING, WHAT WOULD-- WHAT IS HE LIKE TO DO IF WE WERE TO GET THAT MANY TROS? THE CONSENSUS HE WOU SEND A LARGEUMBER OF TROOPS TO THE SOUTH, PERHAPS 15,000 TROS KANDAHAR PVINCE WHICH IS TALIBAN HEARAND. TO TRY AND GET COROL OF THAT PRINCE. AND THERE WOULD BE ANOTHER, PERHAPS 5,000, SENT TO HELMAN PROVINCE, T BREADSKET OF AFGHANISTAN, THE CTER OF THE OPIUM CULT WHERE YOU ARE POPPIES GROW AND WHERE TH TALIBAN CONTROA LOT OF THE POPPY CROPS AND, THEREFORE, IT'S A BIG OURCE OF SBRK FOR THEM. THE UNITED STATES WLD LIKE TO SEE MORE POMEGRANAS AND WHEETS GROWN THERE PROBAY ANOTHER 5,000 WOULD BE SENT TOHE EAST, TO THE BORDER PAKISTAN, TO THE THREE PROVINCES THATORDER NORTH AND SOUTHICA ZIR STAN AND PAKISTAN, THAL QAEDA STRONGHOLD.

>> Warner: IS THA WHAT YORE PICKING UP, MARK? D IF SO, WHY THE FOCUS ON KANDAHAR. THAT WOULD REALLY BE A NEW VENTURE FOR THE U.S.

>> THERE'S A HANDFUL U.S. FORCES D ALLIEDFORCES AROUND KANDAHAR. KANDAHAR IS THE HEART OF THE TALIBAN. THE CITY AND THE PROVINCE SURROUNDING IT. YOU GO BACK IT 2007 INRAQ, THE DECISION WATAKEN AWAY TO BRI PEE OR SOME SORT OF PEACE TO THAT REGION WAS TO SURROUN BAHDAD, THE BA'ATH BELTS THAT WOULD KEEP AT LEAST TRUCKS OUT OF BAGHDADND BRING SOME PEACE THERE. ESSEIALLY, IT'S NOT GOING TO BE QUITE THESAME BUT THAT SORT OF WH THEY'RE TALK ABOUT TRYING TO DO TO KANDAR. CURRENTL THE TALIBAN IN ANDAHAR IS RUNNG RUDIMENTY COU. THEY'RE COLLECTI TAXES. THEY'RE DOINGOTS OF THINGS THAT YOU WOULD THK A GOVERNMENWOULD DO. IT'SFGHANISTAN'S SECOND LARGEST CITY AFTER KABUL, AND THE FACIS, THIS IS ONE THE ALES AND U.S. HAVE SORT OF KEPT ON THE SIDELINES, AND NOW THEY'RE GOING TO GO AFTER IT.

>> Warner:OW LET'S DISPENSE WITH THE LOW ENDECAUSEROM WHAT WE'R REPORTING, THAT'S NOT BEING ACTIVELY CONSIDRED ANY MORE. THAT'S10,000 TO 15,000 TRPS. WHAT WOULD THAT OPTION LOW?

>> THAT WOULD HAVE BE LARGELY TRAINS. THERE WOULD HE BEEN PERHAPS 10,0 TROOPS, MORER LESS, SENT IN TOTRAIN TH AFGHAN SECURITY FORCES WHICHAY BIG, BIG, PRIORITY BECAUSE THE YRKD OF COURSE SY WANT TO GE THEçJ AFGHANS ABLE FIGHT THIS WAR THEMSELVES. AND THE REST WOULD HAVE BE FOCUSED EYE MEAN, IT ALSO WOULD VE INVOLVED A LOT OF GROU SFLIKZ PAKISTAN. THE ARGUMENT SUNEED SO MANY PEOPLE ON THE TOWN--.

>> Warner: THIS IS THE JOE BIDEN OPTION. THE WAY, EARLY O ERE WAS A LOT OF SIGNALS CING OUT OF THE WHITE HOU THAT THE PRESIDNT S LOOKING AT THIS VERYLOSELY BUT THAT CHAND OVER THE COSE OF TH LAST FEW MONTHS.

>> Warner: SO LET'S GO, MARK, UNLESS YOU WANT TOADD A WOR ON THAT, LET'S GO TO THISIDDLE RANGE, THE GOLDILOCKS RANGE, ETWEEN THE 10 AND THE 4 GIVE US A SEN OF WHATHE COMMANDE WOULD GIVE UP IF, LET'SAY, IT'S 35,000ATHER THAN 40 ORF IT'S DOWN TO 30000?

>> I MEAN, BASICALLY, THEY'RE TALKING ABO PROTECTING POPULATIONENTERS. HEY'RE TALKING ABOUT A SO-CALLED INKPOT STRATEGY, WHCH SUPROTECT THIS VILLAGE BUT OT THO VILLAGE. YOU TO THE VILLAGE WHERE THE FOLKS ARE MOST ANTI-TALIBAN OR PERHAPS PRO-AMERICAN, AND YOU MAKE THAT IN TIS DISTRICT SORT OF CENTER OF DEVELOPMENT. AND YOU HEAR THE PHRASE, "SLOCATED ENVY," THAT YOU WANT TO MA THE GUYS IN THIS VILLAGE JEAUS OF THIS VILLE BECAUSE THEY'RE DOIN WELL. PLAINLY, WITH MORE TROOPS, OU CAN DO MORE OF THOSEILLAGES. WITH FEWER TROOPYOU CAN'T DO SO MANY. AND I THINK THE NUMBER TRAINERS IS LIKELY TO DROP, SPECIALLY ON THE U.S. SIDE, PING THAT NATO IN THE NEX MONTH OR SO WLL STEP UP TO THE PLATE THERE BECAUSE THAT MAY B A LITTLE ESIER FOR THEM TOELL TO THEIR GOVERNMENTS.

>> Warner: AND WITH THE 30,000-3500, ELIZABETH, CAN THEY STILL PURSUIT STRATEGY OF PROTECTING ALSO THE MAJOR CIES? >>ES.

>> Wner: SO WHAT ARE WE TALKG ABOUT?

>> THE MAJORITIES WE'RE TALKING ABOUT ARE KABUL, KANDAHA HERAT IN THE WES JALALABAD IN THE EAST,ND SO FORTH. AND I THINK ALSO THE SLIGHTLY SS TROOPS, THEY TALKED ABOUT A FOURT BRIGADE, WHICH I ABOUT 5,000 TROOPS OR SO, THAT THEY COULD HAVE TO USE FLEXIBLEY ACROSS THE COUNT, A AND THERE WOULD BE SS OF THAT, AND SO LESS TRAINERS.

>> Warner: SPEAK OF BRIGADES, THE PRESIDENT MADE VERY CLEAR HE WAS GOING TO ASK THINATEO ALLIES TO PONY MORE TROOP AND GORDON BROWN, THE PRIME MISTER OF BRITAIN, SAID TODAY HE THOUGHT THERE WOULD BE 5,000 MORE TOPS. OW WOULD THEY BE US, MARK?

>> LL, NUMB ONE, A LOT OF THEM WOULD BE ED AS TRAINERS. BUT INTERESTINGLY, 35,000, IF THAT'S THE NUMBER TH PRESIDENT DECIDE ON, AND 5,000 FROM THE HER NATO ALLIES, THAT 40,00. THAT IS WHAT STAN M <cChstal wAS LOOKING FOR. AOT WOULD GO TRAINERS. SOUTH KOREA, SLOVAKIA ARE TALKING ABOUT KEEPIN THE TROOPS THERE OR SENDING INORE. BUT IT'S A INTHE HUREDS. I DON'T THINK ANY OFHOSE NATIONS GETSP TO 1,000. BRITAIN IS TALKING ABOUT SENDNG 500 MORE IN THE KE OF THE PRESIDENT'S SPEE NEXT WEEK. THESE ARE ALL-- YOU HATE TO SAY IT-- BUT SORT OFRIBS AND DABZ IF YOU GET UPO 5,000 TO 7,000, IN ADDITIO TO WHAT THE AMERICANS ARELIKELY TO SEND, TH'S ASIGNIFICANT CHUNK OF SOLDIERS.

>> LOT OF THE ALLIES ARE PUING OUT. THE DUTCH,HE CANADIANS ARE PULLING OUT 2011. THEY HAVE 2800 TROOPS IN KANDAHAR, AND THERE IS SIGN FROM THEM THEY ARE GOIN TO SEND TROOPS THE FUTURE. THEY SAID WE'VEEEN THERE CLE 10 YEARS AND THAT IS EUGH. SOTHEY'RE-- IT'S A TOUGH ROAD. TH UNITED STATES HAS SID THEY WOUL LIKE 10,0 ADDIONAL TRPS FROM NATO. THAT IS LOOKING RY HARD.

>> Warner WHAT IS McCHRYSTAL'S THINKINGN HOW THE WOULD INRACT WITH THE AFGHAN ARMY? AT'S OBVIOUSLY A BIG PART O THIS STREGY. WHAT WOULD BE DFFERENT, AT LEASTFROM WHAT YOU KNOW FROM THE MEMAND FROM PEOPLE YOU' LKED TO ABOUT IT, COMPARED TO THEAYT'S BEING NE NOW?

>> MORE THA HALF OFNY ADDITIONAL U.S. TRPS WOULD ACTUALLY MARRY UP WITH GHAN UNITS. AND THEY WOULD WORK TETHER. MUCH MORE SO THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE SO FAR. FRANKLY, SO FAR THERE HAVEN BEEN ENOUGH MEMBERS THE AFGHAN NATIONALRMY TO DO ANYTHING SIGNIFANT. DOWN HELMAND PROVINCEHEY ARE SPRINKILE OF FORCES IN WITH THE AMERICANSND T OTHER ALLIED FORCES. E BELIEF IS IF TEY CAN URN OUT A LOT MORE AFGHAN FORCES THEY WILL BE ABLE TO MENTOR THESE FLEDGLING AFGHAN UNITS. THAT'S WHEN THEY HOPE TO DO.

>> Warner: FINALLY, YESTERDAY, THE PRESIDENT SAIHE WAS GOING TO FINISH THE JOB. IT WAS TH FIRST TIME HE EVER USED THATHRASE. WHAT ARE YOU BEING TOLD THAT REALLY MEANS?

>> THAT MEANS THER WILL BE A VAGUE EXIT STRATE, SOME GUE GUIDELINES FOR WHAT WE- THE U.S. EXPECTS. THE MILITARY H TOLD ME, FOR EXPLE, WE HAVE, DEPDING ON THE NUMBER OF TROOPS THE PRESIDT IS AIMING FOR INERMS OFTHE AFGHAN SECURI FORCES WE HAVE HOW MANY RECRUITS WE SHOULD GET EACH MONTH, H MANY WE SHOU RETAIN. THERE ARE RY CLEAR GUIDELINES. THERE A BE NO WE HAVE TO BE OUTY A CERTAIN DATE. > Warner: EXIT STRAT PERHAPS, MARK, BUTOIMETABLE. >>INHERE ARE A SERIES OF OF RAMPZ STARTING NEXT YEAR. STAN McCHRYSTAL MADE IT THREE THREE MONTHS AGOE HAVE A YEAR GET THIS RIGHT. THEE MONTHS HAVE ALREADY PASSED SO ERE'S GOING TO BE A LOT OF PRESSURE NEXT SUMMERHEN DTERM ELECTIONS ARE COMING DUE WHEN THE CNGRESS D THE DEMOCRATS E NERVOUS ABOUT YING FOR THIS.

>> Warner: WHAT E YOU BEING TOLD WEWILL SEE WHAT THE PRESIDENT UNVEILS NEXT WEEK THAT WILL LAY OUTOME KIND OF PRGRAM?

>> THERE LL BE BENCHMARKS. I DON'T KNOW WAT THEY ARE YET, AND I DON'TNOW THAT THEY'LL BE LEASED NEXT WEE

>> Waer: ALL RIGHT MA THOMPN ELIZABETH BUMILLER, THANK YOU.

>> Lehr: NEXT TONIGHT: WCHING THE PRICE OF THE DOLLA DROP AND OFOLD RISE, AS IT DID AGAIN TODAY. OUR ECOMICS CORRESPONDENT, PAUL SOLN, EXPLAINS THE CONNECTION. IT'S PART OF HIS ONGOING REPOING ON "MAKING SENSE OF FINANCIAL NEW"

>> I LOVE GOLD, SO I LE TO SURROUND MYSELF WITH GOLD.

>> Reporter: THE LATEST CALIFORNIA GOLD SH: THE HARD ASSETS INVESTMENCONFERENCE IN SAN FRANCISCO. T GLITTERING METAL HAD HIT $1,100 AN OUNCE ANDAS BRINGING ITS ENTHUSIASTS OUT OF THEM AR HILLS.

>> THIS IS 24 KARATOLD, HERE. ISN'T TH PRETTY COOL? THAT'S PREY AWESOME, RIGHT? THIS IS A QUARTER OUNCE GD AMERICAN EAGLE BULLION CN WHICH IS 24 KARAT THIS ONE HE IS A HALF OUNCE GOLD ARICAN EAGLE PROOF COIN. IT WAS ACTUALLY MA BY THE U.S. MI.

>> Reporter: FOLKS, LE JIM LUTHI, THINK HARD SETS LIKE GD ARE ALL THAT GLITTERS IN A RLD OF PROLIFERATING PAPER MONEY.

>> GOVERNMENTAROUND THE WORLD ARE PRINTG MONEY, ESPECIALLY THE U.S.

>> Reporter: INTING MONEY FOR STIMULUS PACKAGES AND NK BAILOUTS WORWIDE, THAT IS, AND ESPECILY, PRINTING DOLLARS, RAISING THE SPECR OF INFLATION IN AMERICA AND...

>> THIS PARTICULAR SAMPLE S 15 OUNCES OF GD.

>> porter: ...A HIGHER GOLD PRICE ASNVESTORS BUY IT TO PROTECT THEMSELVES. TORONTO'S IAN McAVITY S LONG BEEN TRACTED TO THE HARD UFF. SOME MAY RECOGNIZE HIM OM P.S. "WALL ST. WEEK" BACK IN THE EARLY '80s, WH GOLD WAS LAST MAKING HEADLIS.

>> I'M A CANADI, I'M WATCHING TH UNITED STATES FROM THE OUTSIDE. I HAVE U. DOLLARS-- NOT MANY-- AND I'M AN ANAST OF INTERNATIONALAPITAL AND INTERNATIONAL FLOWS. EVERYTHING THAT THISOUNTRY IS DOING IS BASILLY TELLING ME THAT YOUE GOING TO DEPRECIATE THE VALUE OF THSE U.S. DOLLARS OVER TIME.

>> Reporter: THE FEARS THAT CREATING MO DOLLARS WILL DRIVE EIR VALUE DOWN AND DOWN. A SLOW ECONOMY, HOWEVERHAS MEANT LESS SPENDING, LESS BORRING, AND THUS FEWER DOLLARS CIRCULATINEVER SINCE PTEMBER OF 2008, WHEN WE FIR VISIT CHARLIE MAMMOSER'S NORTHERN LIFORNIA COIN EXCHANG

>> RIGHT NO WE'RE IN A WNWARD TREND. RIGHT NOW, GOLDS $750 AND TEN CENTS.

>> Rorter: SO GOLD REFLECTED THE FEAR DEFLATION-- PRICES GOING WN, THE DOLLAR GOING UP JUST 14 MONTHS AGO. BUT IT'S NOT TRUE ANY RE.

>> IT'S BEEN A HECK OF AEAR. IT'S BEEN WILD RIDE.

>> Reporter: E MAN WHO BROUGHT US HEREDEVOUT GOLD BUG JOHN WILAMS. THE PAST YEAR HAS VADATED WHAT HE'S LONG BELIEVE >>OLD WAS A GOOD BUY AT $200, GOOD BUY A$500, GOOD BUY AT $750. WE'RE OV $1,100. OW THAT'S STILL A GOOD BUY. IT'S GOING TO BE A GOOD BUAT $5,000.

>> Reporter: YOU DON'T TUALLY THINK GOLD IS GOING GET TO $5,000 AN OUNCE?

>> O INDEED I DO. WHAT HAS HAPPENED INCASINGLY IS THE REST OF THE WOD IS SAYING, "HEY, THERE'S A OBLEM WITHHE UNITED STATES, THAT THEY'RE SPENDING LIKE A UNKEN SAOR, I DON'T WANT TO HOLD THE DOLLARS, I'M GOING TOOSE HERE."

>> Repter: A CASE IN POINT: WHAT INDIA D JUST LAST MONTH, BUYING GOLD FM THE INTERNATION MONETARY FUND. CURRENCY ANALYST GREG SALVAGO.

>> THE INDIANENTRAL BANK TOOK A VERY AGGRESSI MOVE WHERE THEY WENT AND OUGHT 200 METRIC TONS OF GOLD-- A HUGAMOUNT OF GOLD! THERE IS A GROWG BELIEF THAT EMERGINMARKET CENTRAL BANKS ARGOING TO BEGIN TO DIVERSIFY AWAY FM DOLLAR AS THEIR PRIMARY RESERVE ANBUY GOLD.

>> PEOPLE IN THE EMERGI ARKETS LOVE IT.

>> Reporter: FORMER I.F. CHIEF ECONOMIST SIMON JOSON.

>> DIANS HAVE A MORE INTRINS VALUE TO GOLD PERHAPS TH WE DO. AND ASHEY GET MORE MONEY, AND AS THEY GET MORE STAING IN THE WORLD ECONOMY,HEY'RE SHIFTING INTO GOLD. THEIECONOMIES ARE BOUNCING BACK QUICK AND THAT HAS AN EFFE ON GOLD RIGHT NOW.

>> Reporter: AND THE VERIC ON THE DOLLAR WOU SEEM TO BE CLEAR.

>> THE RERVE BANK OF INDIA IS A HUGE HOLDER OF DOLLARSWITH THAT BATCH OF DOLLARSHEY BASICALLY SAID, "I'VGOT $1,045 OR AN OUNCE OF GO, I'LL TAKE THE LD!"

>> ReporterTHE CURRENCY TRANG DESK AT SAN FRANCISCO'S WELLS FARGO BANK, FNDED TO HANDLE THE GO RUSH. 'S HEADED BY SIMON FOWLES.

>> THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARK IS THE LARGEST MARKET ITHE WORLD WITH OSE TO $4 TRILLION A DAY GNG THROUGH IT.

>> Repoer: AND WELLS FARGO IS NOW ONE OF THWORLD'S LARGEST PLAYERS. WE RE HERE TO SHOW THAT THE DOLLAR ISN'T JUST DROOPG AGAINST GOLD, BUT AGAINST OTH PAPER CURRENCIES AS WEL

>> WELL, W YOU... YOU SEE THE NADIAN DOLLAR, STRENGTHENING AGAINST THE DOLLAR FR $130 DOWTO $107 NOW.

>> Reporter: THE NADIAN DOLLAR IS ALMOST BACK TO EN WITH THE U. DOLLAR, THAT IS. THE EURO TOO IS BACK NR A HISTORIC BREAKTHROUGH POT: $1.50 FOR JUSONE EURO. AND THAT COULD TRIGGEA MOVE TO $1.60. TRADER ERICLANC.

>> IT'S NEW NUMBER, IT'S A NEW DIRECTION, IT'S A NEW FRTIER THAT'S BEG EXPLORED AND PEOPLE WANT TKNOW HOW IT REACTS AND ARE THERE GOING TO BE A T OF LLERS OR IS IT JUST GOING T KEEP GNG BECAUSE OF THE PANIC MOVE.

>> Reporter: BUT EVEN CK AT A BUCK FIFTY TO THE EUROTHE DOLLAR IS HOLDI LESS VALUE THAN MOST OF THEORLD'S OTHER MAJOR CURRENCIEIN 2009. WHY? BECAUSE THE S. HAS BEEN CATING EVEN MORE MONEY- "CASH", "CURRENCY," "LUIDITY" -- THAN OTHER UNTRIES.

>> THE FED HAS INJECTEA TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF LUIDITY AND DURINGHAT SAME PERIOD WE'VE SEEN THE DLAR ON TRADE WEIGED BASIS FALL ABOUT 15%.

>> Reporter:S A RESULT, THE U.S. DOLLAR IS DOWNORE THAN 50% AGAINST GO IN THE PAST YEAR BUT THE CANADIAN DLAR, ONLY 3; THE EURO LESS THAN 25%. IN SHORT, INVESTORS ARE ME WORRIED ABOUT INFLATION IN T U.S. THAN PRETTY MUCH AWHERE ELSE AND AS A RELT, THEY'RE GOING FOR E GOLD.

>> GOLD HAS LONG BEEN REGAED AS A HEDGE AGAINST ALL KNDS OF RISK. IF THERE'S FLATION, GOLD'S ETTY GOOD. IF THE GOVERNMENT BREAKS WN, YOCAN BURY SOME BARS OF GOLD ANDOME BACK AND GET IT LATE IF YOU'REORRIED ABOUT THE U.S. GOVERNMENT NOT BEING ABLEO PAY ITS DEBTS, IF YOU' WORRIED ABOUT THEOLLAR COLLAPSING, IF YOU'RE WOIED ABOUT WORRYING, YOUO OUT AND BUY GOLD.

>> Reporter: NOW SIMOJOHNSON IS EXPLAINING, T SUGGESTING. AND THE GOVEMENT IS AWARE OF THE DANRS, TOO. AT THE "NEWSHOUR" FOM WITH THE FEDERAL RESERVE CHR THIS SUMMER, BEN BERNANKE WAS EXPLICIT.

>> WE'VE HAD A LOT OF STIMUS, WHICH WE'RE TRYING TO USETO MAKE THE ECONOMY GROW. ON THE ECONOMY STARTS TO GROW AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAD, THEN IT WILL BE VE IMPORTANT FOR THE FED TO UIND, RAISE INTEREST RATES, BRG THAT CREDIT BK, BRING THE MONEY BACK, STHAT WE DON'T HAVE AN INFTION PROBLEM DOWN THE ROAD. Reporter: BETTING AGAINST HE LLAR, THEN, IS BETTING AGAIN THE FED. WHEN INVESTOR LAST BET AGAINST THE DOLLAR TH GOLD, THEY DROVE THE PRICE TO $850 AN OUNCIN 1980. A GOD INVESTMENT?

>> BASICALLY, NCE 1980, GOLD HABEEN THE WORST PERFORMING ASSET CATEGORY RETIVE TO THE SCK MARKET, RELATIVE TO U.S. G.D.P., RELATIVE TO THE S. C.P.I.-- WHICH BASICAY SAYS GOLD HAGOT A LONG WAY TO GO FM THESE CURRENT LEVELS JUST TO CATCH UP! YOU KNOW, THAT'S AANGLE PEOPLE AREN'T LOOKINGT. THE INFLATN-ADJUSTED NUMBEIN THE OFFIAL C.P.I. WOULD BE JUST SHY OF $200 AN OUNCE. SO WE'RE ONLYALFWAY THERE. >>ANOTHER 18 KARATS, NANCY!

>> Report: AND EVEN AT TODAY'S PRICE, WHILE THERERE PLENTY OF PLENTY OF PEOPLE BUNG GOLD, THERE ARE JUST AS MY SELLERS.

>> $1,262!

>> W, THAT'S GOOD!

>> Reporter: A SOLID GOLDET- GETHER STAGED LAST WEEK AT A WAUT CREEK BOUTIQUE HOSTED BY mygoldparty.com. BAGS OFOLD WEIGHED.

>> OH, THAT'S OUR HEAVY ONE! Reporter: TESTED...

>> OHMY! 22 KARATS

>> Reporter: PRICED IN DOLRS.

>> $1,156 DLARS! PRETTY GOOD F A DAYS WORK! ( LAUGHS )

>> Reporter: SOHO'S MAKING THE RIGHT BET HERE: THE BUYS OR THE SELLERS? THOSE BETTING INFLATION OR AGAINST? JOHN WILLIAMS HASO DOUBTS.

>> WHAT HAS BEEN NE OVER THE LAT COUPLE OF DECADES HAS SET UP THE ULTIMATE DASEMENT OF THE U.S. DLAR. THE DOLLAR AS WE KOW IT IS GOING TO BECOME WORTHLESS ITHE YEARSHEAD.

>> BUT PEOE CAN BE WRONG. I MEAN, T LAST TIME WE WERE HERE, WERE DOING A STORY ABOUT INFLATION INFLATON WENT AWAY AND WE NEVER EVEN DID T STORY. ARE U NOT AT ALL HUMBLED ABOUT MAKING THESE PREDICTNS? >>IN MY MOST HUMBLE OPINION,E HAVE IN PLACE NOW ERYTHING THAT HAS BEENHE NIGHTMARE OF THE PEOPLE LOOKING ATHIS SYSTEM OR TIME.

>> Reporte JOHN WILLIAMS' GOLD DEALER BEGS TO DIFFER.

>> EVEN THOUGGOLD HAS GONE UP $150 INHE LAST MONTH, THE DOLLAR IS STILL $1.49-$1.50 THE EURO, IT'S NOT GOING NOWHERE. SO I THINIT'S MORE FEEDING OF ITSELF. IT'S GOING USO MORE PEOPLE ARE JUMPING ON THE BANDWAGON, AT'S KINDF HOW I SEE IT. >>Reporter: SO THIS IS JUST A SPECULATIVE BULE EVEN PERHAPS? > YEAH, THAT'S KIND OF HOW I SEE IT AND I'MUST WONDERING, EN'S IT GOING TO POP?

>> Reporter: TOY, GOLD SOARED TO A NEW HH AND CLOSED AT $1,187 DOLLARS AN OUNC

>> Lehrer: PAUL SOLMAWILL ANSWEROUR QUESTIONS ON GOLD AND THER TOPICS ON HIS BUSINES DEK BLOG AT newshour.pbs.org. FINLY TONIGHT: TOYOTA'S LARGEST RECALL. JEFFREY BROWHAS THE STORY. Brown: IT ALL STARTED IN GUST WITH A HIGH-SPEED CRAS IN CALIFORN THAT TOOK FOUR LIVES, APPARENTLY CAUSED WEN THE ACCELERATOR PEDAL OF A EW LEXUAUTOMOBILE STUCK IN THE CAR'S FLOOR MATS. IN PTEMBER, AFTER MORE REPORTS ACCIDENTS INVOLVING UNINTENDEACCELERATION. TOYOTA, THWORLD'S LARGEST AUTOMAKE ANNOUNCED A RECALL THAT HAS NOW GROWNO COVER ABOUT FOUR MIION VEHICLES ILUDING POPULAR BRANDS LIKE THE CAMRY, THE TOP-SEING PSENGER CAR IN AMERICA, THE PRIUS, THE BEST-SELLG GAS- ELECTRIC HYBRID, D THE LUXURY LEXUS MODEL. E COMPANY ORIGINALLY ORIGINALLY TOLD VEHICLE OWRS TOEMOVE DRIVER'S SIDE FLOOR MATS, WHE IT DETERMINED A TODAY, TOYOTANNOUNCED IT WOULD HAVE DEALERS SHORTEN T LENGTH GAS PEDALS IMMEDIATELY AND OFR REPLACEMENT PEDALS BEGINNING NEXT APRIL. DAVID SHARDSON HAS BEEN COVERING THIS STORYOR THE DETROIT NEWS AND JOINS MNOW.

>> ONE HORRIFIC ACCENT STARTED THI REMINDsUF THAT STORY.

>> THIS WAS A TERRIBLE ACCIDENT. ON AUGUST 28 NE SAN DIEGO, AN OFF-TY CALIFORNIA GHWAY PATROLFFICER COULDN'T STOP THE R. HIS WIFE CLED 911. THERE WAS A CALL THAT LASTED LESS THA A MINUTE. THEY SAID THEY WE GOING 120 MILES PER HOUR. THEY STARTED T PRAY. THE CAR WENT OFF AN EMBANKMENT, BURST INTO FLAMES, A FOUR PEOPLE WERE KILD,NCLUDING A YOUNG CHILD.

>> Brown: AT THIS TIME, THE PROBLEM OF SUDDEN ACCELERATION HAD A HISTORY.

>> IT'S BEEN A PROBLEM FOR YEARS FOR LOTS OF AUTO MAKERS. IS IT JUST WHEN FLOOR MATZ GET STUCK TOCCELERATOR PEDALS OR OTHER ELECTRON ISSUES? THERE HAVE BEEN HNDREDS AND HUNDREDS OF COMPLAINTS FROM STOMERS ALL OVER THE WORLD, REALLY, ABOUT THSSUE. >Reporter: IN THIS CASE, TOYOTA FIRST CUSED ON THE FLOOR MATS. TELL WHAUS TY SAID AND THAT LED TO A KEEND OF DISPE WITH THGOVERNMENT, I GUESS.

>> THIS BEGAN-- AFR THAT ACCIDENT, A FE WEEKS LATER, TWOEPT NAONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMISTRATION ISSUED AN URNT WARNING SAYING REMOVE THE FLOOR MATS IMEDIATELY TO FUR MILLION OWNERS. IN LATE OCTOB, TOYOTA SUGGESTED PHAPS THAT WAS IT, THEN THE GOVERNMENT RESPONDED WITH AN ANGRY PRESS RELEASE THA AID THEY HAD MISLED THE PUBLIC. THIS PROMPTED A APOLOGY FROM TOTA AND PROMPTED THE MULTIFACETED F THAT WE SAW TODAY.

>> Brown: ALL RIGHT, SO EXPLAIN THAT X. IS I CLEAR NOW WHAT IS CAING-- WHAT'S CAUTION THE PROBLEM? WELL, TOYOTA BELIEVES SO, AND THE GOVERNMENT BLIEVES AS WELL. THEY'VE DONE A INTENSVE INVEIGATION. IT'S BASICALLY-- THEYE MAKING THREEIXES. NUMBER ONE, THEY'RE REPLACING E FLOOR TS. THEY'RE GOING TO BE REDESIGN THEY'RE LESS LIKELY TO GET STUCK UNDER THE ACCELERATOR PEDAL. TY WILL IMMEDIATELY SRTEN THE ACCELERATOR PEDALS. THEY WILLAKE THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCOFF THE PEDAL MAKING IT SMALLER AND LES LIKELY TO GET STUCK UNR THE MAT. AND THIRD, STARTING WITH SOME VEHICLES, THEY'RE GOING TO REDO THE SOFTWARE. IF YOU HIT BOTHHE ACCELERATOR AND BRAKE IT WI BRAKE.

>> Brown: SOHE BRAKE WILL VERRIDE THE ACCELERATOR?

>> EXACTLY. SOME CUSTOMERS REPORTED IN LOSS OFDIFFERENT INVESTIGATION YOUAN'T STOP, THE BKE DOES NOT WORK. Brown: SO IF YOU HAVE ONE O THE CARS, THEMMEDIATE THING ROOD IS-- STOOD TAKE OU THE FLOOMAT AND THEN GO TO THE DEALER.

>> WELL, YOU'RE GOINGO GET NOTIFIED BETWE NOW AND-- STARTING IN JANUARY ROUGHJUNE IT'S GOI TO TAKE A FEW MONTHS FOR SOME PEOPLE FIND OUT. INITIALLY THEY'RGOING TO SHAVE OFF PART OF TH ACELERATOR PEDAL. AND STARTI IN APRIL, THEY'LL PUT A NEW PEDAL IN. YOUAVE THE OPTION FTHEYIXED YOUR PEL TEMPORARILY, YOU CAN GO BACK AND G THE OTHER ONE BUT YOTA SAY EITHER FIX SHOULD BE THE SA.

>> Brown: SO THE CAUSEIS THE ACCELERATOR PEAL GETTING STUCK THE FLOOR MAT. IT'S AS SIMPLE AS THAT AND NOT MORE OF A COMPUR OR ELECTRONIC PROBLEM?

>> WHAT'S THAT TOYOTA SAYS AND THE GVERNMENT ESN'T HAVE ANY EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST OS BUT SATY ADVOCATES SAY IT COULD BE A THROTTLE PROEMOR A PROBLEM WITH THE ELECTRONIC CONTROLS BUT TOYOTA INSISTED THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE OF ELECTRONIC PROBLEMS.

>> Brown: TH IS A COMPANY WITH GRE REPUTATION FOR QUALITY. WHAT IS THE THINKING ON HOW SOMHING LIKE THIS HAPPENS?

>> A COUPLEF THINGS. JUST THIS WEETHEY HAD A REALL OF 110,000 TOYOTA TUNDRAS OV RUST ISSUE THERE ARE FRS SPARE TIRES CLD FALL OFF THE BOTTOM OF VEHICLES AND LAND ON THE ROADWAYS. OOK, THIS IS A COMPY AS YOU POINTED OUT IS THE WORLD'S LARGEST AUTO MAKER. IT' GOTTEN VERY BIG. IT'S OPENED A LOT OF PLANTS, AND THERE ARE SOME STUGZ SUGZ THEY HAVEN'T DONE AS MUCH IN TERMS OF ALITY AS THEY SHOULD IN 2005 HAD A BIG SPEAK IN RECALLS, REDOLED THEIR EFFORTS. CONDER THIS-- LAST YEAR TOYOTA HAD ABOU 800,000 RECALLS TOTAL. HIS IS 4.2 MILLION, PLUS THE RECALLROM EARLY. SO THIS IS BY FAR THE MOST SIGNIFICA RECALL THEY'VE EVER HAD INHE U.S..

>> Brown: SO WN YOU THINK ABOUT THE POTEIAL HIT TOTS REPUTATION, I MEAN, IT'S HARD TO CALCULE I SUPPOSE.

>> WELL, YOU KNOW, TH IS A COMPANYHAT HAS HAD SOME FFICULTIES. THEHAD THEIR FIRST LOSS IN 50 YEARS. THEY LOST ABOUT $4.5 BILLION. AND, YEAH, IT'S A QUESTION OF WILL CUSTOMERS GIVE THEM ANOTHER CHANCE? DO THEY BELIEVE THISS ENDEMIC OF A BROADERROBLEM OR ISHIS SORT OF A STUBBORN PROBL WITH THE PEDALS THATHEY VOWED TO SNX THEY WENT BEYOND WHAT THEY HADTO DO TAED THEY'RE EN REPLACING THE PASSENGER SIDE MATIN CASE THE DRIVER MIXES THEM UP AND PUTS THE WRG MAT ON THE OTHER SI THERE WON'T B A PROBLEM. YOUAVE TO GIVE TOYOTA CREDIT FOR GOING AVE AND BEYOND WH THEY'RE QUIRED TO DO. > Brown: WHAT ABOUT THE HITTO THE COMPAES COFFERS.

>> CAN YOU DO THE MATH. 2.6 MLLION VEHICLES. IN THE JPANESE PRESS THEY SUGSTED IT COULD COST $5 BILLION, LTH OVER $00 PER VEHICLE. IT PROBABLY IN THATANGE SOMEWHERE. TOYOTA WOT SAY HOW MUCH IT'S GOING TO COST BUT THIS IS A SIZAE NUMBER, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU CONSIDER THE MPANY EARLIER TH YEAR SAID HARP GOI TO LOSE $5 BILLION THIS YER. THEY REDUCED I TO $2 BILLION BUT IT'S A BIG NUMBER.

>> Brown: THIS IS COMING AT A TIME WHEN ALLHE AU MAKERS ARE WRIED.

>> TY POSTED A PROFIT IN THE RECE QUARTER, MADE ABOUT600 MILLION. THEHAVE TURNED THE CORNER FROM WHERE THEY WERE LA YEAR. THEY GOT RID OF THEIR PONSORSHIP FOR FORMULA 1 RACING SAVING ABOUT $500 MILLION. THIS ISN'T THE OLD FREE-SPENDING DA OF THE AUTOCOMPANIES. Brown: WE HAVE JUST ABOU SECON AND I'LL CURIOUS ABOUT ONE TNG. YOU'RE FWAUKT SIZE OFHIS RECALL. THESE DAYS AREHERE FEWER MORE RECALLS NOWADAYS THAN IN TH PAST?

>> IN 2004, WE IT A RECORD OF 31ILLION RECALLS. LAST YEAR WE FELL TO AEAR JUST 10 MILLION. WE'RE PROBABLY ON PE TO BE IN THAAREA AGAIN. CONSIDER FOUR MILLON, IT COULD BE CLOSE TO HALF ALL RECALLS THIS YEAR SOIT'S A PETTY SIGNIFICANT NUMBE COMPARED TO THE RESOF THE INDUSTRY.

>> Brown: ALREA, SHEP, OF THE "DETROIT NS." THANKS A LOT. THANKS, JEFF.

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