The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MS. WOODRUFF: Good evening. I'm Judy Woodruff in Washington.

MR. MacNeil: And I'm Robert MacNeil in New York. After the News Summary this Friday, we have a Newsmaker interview with Ross Perot. Correspondent Jeffrey Kaye reports on unhappy voters in traditionally Republican Orange County, California, and we have analysis of the week's politics with David Gergen and Mark Shields. NEWS SUMMARY

MS. WOODRUFF: In the presidential campaign today George Bush made a pitch for a women's vote at a stop in New Jersey. He said his policies would provide economic security to working women through enforcement ofchild support laws, cheaper health care, family leave, and child care. The President said he would offer incentives, not mandates, to business which offer the benefits. Mr. Bush said the Democrat-sponsored Family Leave Bill passed by Congress last week showed the problems with government mandates.

PRESIDENT BUSH: Think of the impact mandated family leave has on hiring decisions. I know it's not supposed to happen, but how many employers will think, why not hire a man instead of a woman; he won't leave to have a child; he won't leave to care for his family. And this is illegal. And we must enforce the law. But mandated family leave could encourage this subtle kind of discrimination. And I don't think you'll hear these kinds of details discussed in the media, but I'm going to take a stand because to me it's not worth putting politics ahead of progress.

MS. WOODRUFF: Bill Clinton campaigned in New Mexico today. He told workers at the Sandia National Laboratories that they would play a pivotal role in the nation's future. He said if he is elected, they would become partners in crafting an economic and defense policy for the post Cold War era.

BILL CLINTON: We are changing the job mix of America in a way that is not very hopeful for us, partly because we had not educated and trained our people to do the jobs that we are fully competitive in a global economy and create high wages and high growth and high opportunity partly because we haven't had an economic strategy that will generate those jobs in this country, and for the last three years because we have been reducing defense spending as we had to. We have done it without a strategy to reinvest all the money in high-technology, high growth opportunities in this country so the defense cutbacks which should have spawned an explosion of economic opportunity in the United States have, instead, aggravated our economic distress.

MS. WOODRUFF: Ross Perot's name will be on the ballot for President in all 50 states. Today Perot's supporters in Arizona submitted signatures to put him on their state's ballot. The Texas billionaire withdrew from the presidential race in July but has suggested in recent weeks that he might get back in. We have a Newsmaker Interview with Mr. Perot right after the News Summary. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: The Senate today approved President Bush's request for the B-2 Stealth Bomber, but a short while later passed another measure that could prompt him to veto the entire $274 billion defense authorization bill. The President had requested funding for 20 of the radar-evading bombers. The planes cost more than $2 billion each, prompting some Democratic Senators to propose funding only 15. That proposal was defeated 53 to 45. The Senate then approved an amendment to the defense bill that would end nuclear weapons testing. The testing ban would go into effect in 1996, and could be reversed if Russia resumed testing. Administration officials argue that testing is needed to maintain the safety of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. The House today voted $11.1 billion in disaster aid. The money will go to victims of Hurricane Andrew and Iniki and Typhoon Omar. President Bush is expected to sign the measure.

MS. WOODRUFF: A U.S. relief plane in Somalia was struck by a bullet today, prompting the Pentagon to cancel some aid flights. None of the crew was hurt. The incident took place in the Southern Somalia town of Belet Weyne. Later scheduled flights to the town were suspended. But U.S. planes continued to land in two other famine-stricken parts of the East African nation. Three point two million people in the Southern African nation of Mozambique also faced imminent starvation. That word came today from the head of the United Nations World Food Program. The country has been racked by a two-year drought and a brutal civil war. Rebels have attacked food convoys and prevented relief officials from reaching hard hit regions. U.N. officials have ruled out an airlift for now, but rebels also control most of the country's air strips.

MR. MacNeil: Relative calm returned to European currency markets today. Traders appeared to be waiting for a French vote on European unity this weekend. The markets were thrust into chaos earlier this week when Britain was unable to stop a plunge in the pound. It then withdrew from the mechanism that binds all European currencies to a single standard. That put in question Europe's ability to coordinate economic policy as called for in the new union treaty. The outcome of France's referendum on the so-called Maastricht Treaty is considered too close to call. Libby Wiener of Independent Television News reports.

MS. WIENER: Whatever the turmoil in the capitals of Europe, it's in provincial towns like Dijon that the fate of the Maastricht Treaty will be decided. Among the voters this Sunday, Christian Oui, who runs one of the town's best known restaurants. For him, the issue goes beyond politics or economics. He believes his way of life is under threat. The region's wines and produce he maintains already the subject of too much European regulation. What's at stake is national sovereignty.

CHRISTIAN OUI, Restaurant Owner: [speaking through interpreter] I'm voting no. I don't have the right to sell off the land where I was raised and where my parents died. It's everything we stand for.

MS. WIENER: Those who farmed the land in Burgundy are most hostile to Maastricht. As they see it, it threatens their livelihood by opening up French agriculture to more competition. In the local village, the debate has also centered on domestic politics, the priest here mocking Maastricht and President Mitterrand. Such passions explain the support which this man, Philip Sergand, has rallied behind him in the "no" campaign. In Dijon, more than a thousand people turned out to hear him speak. The "yes" campaign has won most support among those who feel to be French is to be European. Even in the smallest villages of Burgundy, people turning out to question and answer sessions about Maastricht. Christiane Rouane, a tourist officer, believes she knows what France should do.

CHRISTIANE ROUANE, Tourist Officer: To show to all the different countries after we arrive to upset the Treaty de Maastricht and you other countries have to do the same.

MS. WIENER: It's what France's political leaders want from Sunday's referendum. The people's verdict may be different.

MR. MacNeil: That's it for the News Summary. Just ahead, Ross Perot, some unhappy Republicans, and Gergen & Shields. NEWSMAKER - '92 - ROSS PEROT FOR PRESIDENT

MS. WOODRUFF: First up tonight is a Newsmaker interview with Ross Perot. Two months after declaring he was not a presidential candidate, Perot's name is now on the ballot in all 50 states. He jumped the last hurdle today when supporters filed petitions to place him on Arizona's ballot. We will talk with Mr. Perot after this update report from Betty Ann Bowser of public station KUHT in Houston.

ROSS PEROT: Well, people can say anything they want to say. I am trying to do what's right for my country.

SPOKESMAN: Undeclared candidate Ross Perot is bowing out of the presidential race.

SPOKESMAN: And you did what was wrong for your country.

MS. BOWSER: From Perot petition offices all across the country, there was stunned amazement.

VOLUNTEER: We're asking $10 contributions for the T-shirts.

MS. BOWSER: They had worked night and day by the thousands to get petitions signed so they could vote for Perot in November. And Perot, himself, promised his volunteers if they would get him on the ballot in all 50 states, he would run for President.

JERRY LARSEN, Perot Volunteer: I never thought he would drop out.

MS. BOWSER: You really are surprised?

JERRY LARSEN: Absolutely. I'm totally surprised. I never thought he'd do that.

MS. BOWSER: But the anger of that moment has passed, and today Jerry Larsen is a volunteer in the new Houston office of the new volunteer movement now known as United We Stand America.

JERRY LARSEN: And do you have the upcoming media appearances?

MS. BOWSER: Larsen and thousands of other volunteers are still working hard because their man is back in the news. And everywhere he goes, he's asked about his presidential plans.

ROSS PEROT: If after we do everything we can to get the parties to face the issues, if they won't, if the volunteers said, it's a dirty job but you got to do it, I belong to them.

MS. BOWSER: United We Stand America is based on this book written by Perot [United We Stand, How We Can Take Back Our Country By Ross Perot]. It reads like a presidential platform, calling for increased taxes to solve the nation's economic and social ills. In less than a month the book has soared to the top of the paperback best seller list.

SALESMAN: Your total is going to be four eighty-two.

MS. BOWSER: Perot's book sales and recent public appearances have energized his volunteers. His popularity in public opinion polls is once again on the rise. And Perot has given 68 United We Stand America organizations $7500 apiece to open offices like this one in Houston. Orson Swindle is the national chairman of United We Stand America.

ORSON SWINDLE, Chairman, United We Stand: The American people, we're really frustrated by this process of insult and injury that is thrust upon us every four years by candidates who make all the platform promises. And, Lord knows, we've been had by platforms that way. And they go around assaulting each other, you know, for one week here a couple weeks ago we talked about Hillary Clinton. And a couple of weeks ago, Mr. Bush and Mr. Clinton were trying to outdo each other in who was most like Harry Truman.

MS. BOWSER: At satellite offices, people like volunteer Elizabeth Spates or organizing a new voter registration effort. One United We Stand office recently registered 7,000 new voters in two weeks. Spates also says a campaign organization is in place throughout the country.

ELIZABETH SPATES, Perot Volunteer: Our computers and everything have already been set up. Anytime he says yes, we can let go. And the people are already in line to do the job. Thousands of people are ready to go. And we have new people. And we've lost some people based on his statement he made about not actively campaigning. But for every one we've lost, we've gained four.

VOLUNTEER: I'm expecting Mr. Perot to run. We want him. We need him. He said if we get him on the ballots in all 50 states, he'll run. And he said, if we want him to run, he will run. And I'm going to hold him at that word.

MS. WOODRUFF: Mr. Perot joins us now. And thank you for being with us.

MR. PEROT: Nice to be with you.

MS. WOODRUFF: All right. What's going on? Are you going to get back in the raceor not?

MR. PEROT: We are working night and day with every senatorial and congressional candidate. We're working with both parties to try to get the two-party system to address the issues that concern my people. No. 1, we like a government that works. We have a government that's in gridlock. No. 1-A, we would like people to go to Washington to serve. We would like people -- for that to be a motivation. We would like to restructure our government so that it doesn't attract power-driven, ego-driven people who go to cash in. And we finally, and very importantly, we are spending ourselves into disaster. We're $4 trillion in debt. We want a realistic program to put our country back on the strong financial track, to put our people back to work, so that our children have the same opportunities we have.

MS. WOODRUFF: What has changed, Mr. Perot, since two months ago, July the 16th, when you announced you were not going to be a candidate for president, because, in so many words, you said, we'd be mucking up the presidential process if we got in, and besides the Democrats -- I think you used the word -- have revitalized themselves. What's changed since that day?

MR. PEROT: Neither party has come squarely down on dealing with these issues. Finally, our government is still organized to fight the Cold War. We need to reorganize our government for the 21st century. And we have a National Security Council to deal with the Cold War, which no longer exists. We don't have a counterpart to deal with rebuilding America domestically. These are things that we had hoped both parties would do. And so far they haven't done it. Our people individually -- and this is very important -- they can't join Committee 100. They can't give $100,000. They can't attract your attention with big PAC gifts. They alone are nothing. Together in this large organization they have a huge voice and they're tapping both parties on the shoulder, saying, listen to us.

MS. WOODRUFF: But is Ross Perot a candidate or not? There are only, what, six weeks left in this campaign. Do you seriously believe that either President Bush or Gov. Clinton is going to make an overhaul of his economic proposal, or any other major proposal between now and election day?

MR. PEROT: Well, we still are optimistic. I wouldn't be wasting time and I wouldn't be wasting money -- time and money. And I wouldn't be wasting your time here. We feel that we should give them every opportunity and every possible support to do that, and then your next question is, and if they don't, see this is an organization --

MS. WOODRUFF: How much time are you giving them? What are you saying? I mean, six weeks is not very long?

MR. PEROT: This is an organization run from the bottom up, not the top down. This is an organization that belongs to the American people, which drives Washington crazy, because, see, Washington likes to treat the American people as robots. And you program them out here. This -- these are thinking, intelligent people. And they will make those decisions.

MS. WOODRUFF: And now they've said they want you to run.

MR. PEROT: No, they put me on the ballot. But across America, they're saying let's try to make the system work, but now we are altogether in the organization and we have leverage. If we're not together on the organization, we're nothing.

MS. WOODRUFF: You do have leverage, even if you're not in the race, you believe you have leverage on President Bush?

MR. PEROT: We certainly feel that the numbers of people involved, this organization represents a swing vote and should be very carefully listened to by both parties.

MS. WOODRUFF: The swing vote, what does that mean?

MR. PEROT: In other words, if I --

MS. WOODRUFF: Who do you help and who do you hurt if you --

MR. PEROT: I'd say if one party said, yes, we'll face these issues and deal with them, and all the volunteers said, all right, that's it, we'll support that party and those candidates, I think that would have an enormous impact on that party's success. Well, there's no question it would. All you have to do is count and you can see that it would.

MS. WOODRUFF: But if you were to -- I don't know of anyone --

MR. PEROT: No. I don't have to, see. I'm here. Without me, they don't have an organization. Without me, they don't have leverage. That's why we have to go through this process, which I'm sure is pretty obvious to everybody. Now then the trick is to get both parties to face up to responsibilities.

MS. WOODRUFF: But, again, we're six weeks away from the election.

MR. PEROT: Right.

MS. WOODRUFF: Do you, Ross Perot, believe that either George Bush or Bill Clinton is going to change a major portion of his platform, whether it's on the economy or health care, between now and election day, because of what you are saying?

MR. PEROT: I believe that -- well -- one of them said, I'll do whatever it takes to win. And so that shows --

MS. WOODRUFF: That was President Bush.

MR. PEROT: -- a degree of flexibility. And I think they would both want --

MS. WOODRUFF: But seriously.

MR. PEROT: -- well, let's take it on -- no, seriously -- that's what I'm trying to say -- these are both people who would want to be responsive of the wishes of the American people. I think the gap is, is that they don't think right now -- they know this has to be done -- everything that's in this book has to be done.

MS. WOODRUFF: Well, let me ask you about --

MR. PEROT: They don't want to bring it up until after the election. The American people are saying, we can take it, bring it up now.

MS. WOODRUFF: All right. Let's talk about some of the things you propose; raising the tax on gasoline 10 cents a year for the next five years, 50 cents --

MR. PEROT: Yes.

MS. WOODRUFF: -- gallon after five years.

MR. PEROT: After five years.

MS. WOODRUFF: Taxing all but 15 percent of the Social Security benefits of recipients who earn over $25,000 a year.

MR. PEROT: Exactly.

MS. WOODRUFF: Now, you're endorsing that.

MR. PEROT: Yes.

MS. WOODRUFF: Do you seriously believe that President Bush or Bill Clinton, again, is going to endorse either one of those?

MR. PEROT: They feel the American people don't have the stomach for fair shared sacrifice. The facts are the American people do. That's what we're trying to make. Isn't it -- I just find it fascinating that the American people read this book and get excited. They don't read this book and get depressed. Nobody would have thought this book would get on the best seller list, much less No. 1 for a couple of weeks, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, because the American people know what we have to do. The people are ahead of the leaders. My trick is to bring the leaders up to the people, get the commitments, get it done, and off we go.

MS. WOODRUFF: Let's talk about two more things. Medicare recipients would pay much higher rates for insurance to cover doctors' bills. Medicare payments to hospitals and so on would be cut back.

MR. PEROT: Yes.

MS. WOODRUFF: You're talking about some -- some significant changes in the health care delivery in this country, that it would be more expensive to people who get Medicare.

MR. PEROT: You have to do it. We're out of money. It's pretty simple. You can't spend your children's money forever. We've spent $4 trillion. We have a deteriorating economy. The only way out of this -- and we have an unbalanced budget -- see, we are $400 billion down this year. If we shut down the whole federal government, except for defense, Social Security, Medicare, entitlements, and paid the interest on the debt, we couldn't balance the budget. It's that far off.

MS. WOODRUFF: Plus restricting tax deductions on home mortgage interest and so on and so on.

MR. PEROT: Well -- let me -- if you're going to say it, say it right. It's over $250,000.

MS. WOODRUFF: All right. Over $250,000.

MR. PEROT: If we're going to cover this, let's cover it correctly. Fair enough?

MS. WOODRUFF: Exactly.

MR. PEROT: Not everybody's home. Just the upper income.

MS. WOODRUFF: Thank you.

MR. PEROT: Now, let's look -- let's look at what happened in the last 12 years on taxes. The poorest 1/5 of our population's taxes went up 16.7 percent. The richest 1/5 went down 9.5 percent, and the richest 1 percent went down 14.4 percent. That's not fair. Let's look at --

MS. WOODRUFF: So --

MR. PEROT: -- average family income --

MS. WOODRUFF: But what I --

MR. PEROT: -- the last 12 years.

MS. WOODRUFF: But what I'm asking, with all due respect, is: How much of this are you saying that the President or Gov. Clinton should endorse of your plan in this book in order for you to feel that you've been listened to?

MR. PEROT: They've have to raise -- they have to do this kind of financial discipline. They may just say, let's not do it here, let's do it here, but let's do it. And the Wall Street Journal wrote a beautiful story that said, can't either Bush or Clinton add? They look at their two economic plans and they don't add up. One of them is $400 billion off; the other one is $340 billion off. And they're basically saying, my gosh, with all the staff people around here, they're making these statements but they're several hundred billion dollars off in terms of the result. We want real plans, hard plans --

MS. WOODRUFF: But --

MR. PEROT: -- precise plans. It doesn't have to -- if you have a better plan, terrific. But you've got to do the job. You can't duck it.

MS. WOODRUFF: The great odds are that one of them is going to be elected President and you are not going to be elected President. Does it matter to you which one of them? Is -- is either the Clinton plan or the Bush plan closer to what Ross Perot believes?

MR. PEROT: Well, the volunteers will make that decision. I would not say, well, I propose one or the other. They will make that decision.

MS. WOODRUFF: And you wouldn't endorse another one because it - -

MR. PEROT: Personally, the organization -- the organization might, if they bit the bullet. I will privately go vote. I have never gone around and --

MS. WOODRUFF: For -- have you decided who --

MR. PEROT: No, of course not. I mean, I'm waiting to see who will do the best job for the American people.

MS. WOODRUFF: The polls that I've seen -- a couple -- several of them we looked at today -- most of them show that while you would help Bill Clinton in some states, Texas, maybe Florida, in one or two other states, in most states you would help the President if you were in the race in a serious way. Is that the effect that you intend to have?

MR. PEROT: No. 1, those polls don't mean much. No. 2, that's -- you know, as far as I'm concerned, that's close to snake oil. Those polls are a joke, in my judgment.

MS. WOODRUFF: So even if it meant -- people recognize that you've been more critical of the President than you have been of Gov. Clinton -- and even if it --

MR. PEROT: Hey, wait a minute. I have not -- I do not criticize a candidate personally. They do that. I don't do that.

MS. WOODRUFF: His record --

MR. PEROT: Well --

MS. WOODRUFF: The President's record.

MR. PEROT: Let's -- let's try to be fair. It's the whole group up there. It's not -- when we talk about what's happening --

MS. WOODRUFF: Up there, meaning --

MR. PEROT: -- in Washington. In other words, you have had Democratically-controlled Congress, Republican White House, and we have government in gridlock. It wouldn't be fair to pick on either one. The facts are the job didn't get done. The job didn't get done. It's certainly not our intent to be personally critical of anyone.

MS. WOODRUFF: And do you hold Gov. Clinton as much responsible for that as you do President Bush?

MR. PEROT: Well, you have to hold the Democrats responsible. Gov. Clinton's been down taking care of Arkansas.

MS. WOODRUFF: So are you saying he's less responsible --

MR. PEROT: No, no. The Democrats and the Republicans have to share the responsibility. They both need to refocus their attention on the people and away from the special interests. If you have to go to foreign lobbyists to get enough money to buy television time for your campaign, if you have to go to big contributors domestically to get enough money, you tend to lose touch with the people who cast the vote. Our organization is to tap them on the shoulder and say, wait a minute, the most important thing out here is the vote, listen to the voters for a change.

MS. WOODRUFF: But what I'm asking is if it could be proven to you by a series of polls -- and you're right there --

MR. PEROT: But by some means --

MS. WOODRUFF: By some means.

MR. PEROT: By some means.

MS. WOODRUFF: That your being in this race in a serious way would help the President more than it would help Gov. Clinton, would that influence your thinking?

MR. PEROT: You keep -- I keep failing to make the point -- is that the volunteers make these decisions. I don't make these decisions. Now, I know this --

MS. WOODRUFF: So it's neither here nor there.

MR. PEROT: -- this may be the most important thing I can tell you -- is there's one filter and only one filter that everything has to go through in United We Stand America, and that is: Is it good for the country? Now, I would give anything if that's the only filter the Democrats and Republicans have. Is it good for the country? And whatever is good for the country, that's what we'll do.

MS. WOODRUFF: There was a newspaper that editorialized yesterday the Boston Herald. It said in so many words, and I'm quoting, hey, fellah, you've had your shot, you blew it. Changing your mind at this late date would look just like what it is, blatant manipulation of the political process. What do you say to people who say, well, he's just playing around with us?

MR. PEROT: This is one man inside the establishment that is staggered and dumbfounded and probably nearly having a stroke because the American people want a voice in their government. This is just the way the system works and the whole establishment is threatened like crazy because people want to have a voice in their government again. Washington is all set up to divide the time among the special interests and now the people have showed up again, said, look, we've cooked the pie. We've created it with our tax money. We want this money split to the benefit of the country. Now, stuff like that -- when people just go off the wall and make these personal direct attacks and slanderous statements like the guy, he allegedly made up there -- I haven't read it, of course -- you know, No. 1, he's trying to make a living. No. 2, he's got to say something spectacular or he won't get his 10 minutes of fame. Let's go to this guy the other day on the morning show that basically said only people in the insane asylum would vote for me. This is --

MS. WOODRUFF: This Roger Ailes --

MR. PEROT: The top Republican guy.

MS. WOODRUFF: -- who's a top media adviser to the President.

MR. PEROT: Top man, top man, big man here in the establishment.

MS. WOODRUFF: He called you a "nut case," by the way.

MR. PEROT: That's fine. That's one of the nicer things people say. That's the price I have to pay for being the spokesman for these people. Now, let me just get it straight. I love the American people. I'm willing to take the heat, take the beating, as long as they want to do this. I may be the only -- I am certainly --

MS. WOODRUFF: But for what, Mr. Perot?

MR. PEROT: I am certainly the only -- obviously, you'd really like to see me to go away, but I'm not going --

MS. WOODRUFF: No.

MR. PEROT: -- away till they tell me to.

MS. WOODRUFF: That's not at all the case. I'm just --

MR. PEROT: Because see we're not talking issues tonight. We're not talking about the debt. We're not talking about the concerns. It's, why don't you leave us alone.

MS. WOODRUFF: We did talk about --

MR. PEROT: We had all this nice and tidy, all this nice and tidy. Why don't you just leave us alone? The point is, this is up to the volunteers. When I stepped aside in July, we were on in 24 states. On their own, they went ahead in another 26 states and put me on. Now, if every politician sells out to somebody, I sold out to them, and whatever they feel is right for the country, we'll do.

MS. WOODRUFF: How do those people know that they can trust you though, Mr. Perot? You were in. They thought you were running. They worked very hard to get you on the ballot.

MR. PEROT: Well, why don't you talk to them. There's no question --

MS. WOODRUFF: But what you say to them?

MR. PEROT: I don't have to say anything. Now, they are the people I represent. I don't -- you know -- I don't have to try to -- they are --

MS. WOODRUFF: They're asking now, where we should put our allegiance?

MR. PEROT: I just showed you the ultimate example of trust when in 26 states they went out and finished the job. What nicer compliment or nicer expression of trust could you have?

MS. WOODRUFF: So why don't you go ahead and say, I'm a candidate for President?

MR. PEROT: Because that's not where the organization is now. Our organization is totally focused on trying to get both parties to do the job. That's why.

MS. WOODRUFF: And, again, when you're asked how much of your plan do either the President or Bill Clinton have to endorse for you to feel that your message has been received --

MR. PEROT: You being the organization -- you understand.

MS. WOODRUFF: I mean the organization and Ross Perot. The book was written by Ross Perot.

MR. PEROT: It was written by me, but it's an expression of the organization's feelings. And don't -- don't think of it is as personal. It's what the organization feels is right. Now, let's assume they come up with a better plan. It's not this plan, but it's better. Fine. We're not asking --

MS. WOODRUFF: What would be a better plan? What would be something that attacked the deficit more definitively?

MR. PEROT: No. Let's not take it here, let's take it here, and say, okay, same difference, got the same amount of money, so it's still fair.

MS. WOODRUFF: Because we had one of Gov. Clinton's top economic advisers on the program the same night that your former adviser, Mr. White, John White, came on and described your economic program. And, in essence, Reich, it was Robert Reich, said, what they are proposing is such a radical deficit reduction it would hurt the economy to do that now. I mean, he was saying in so many words, what you're proposing is too drastic, that the economy can't handle it at this point.

MR. PEROT: That's the reason we didn't try to balance the budget in a year. We took a period of time. Let's go back to Vietnam. When a fellah said, I had to destroy a village in order to save it, you see, you don't want to destroy the economy in an effort to save it. So we have a phased-in program. If you look at the charts and you look at the numbers, it doesn't happen all at once. It happens over a period of time. But at the end we are -- you know, over a four or five-year period, we're then in the black. You have got the thing under control, and it's specific and it's definitive.

MS. WOODRUFF: So when he says -- and, again, this is a top economic adviser to Gov. Clinton -- that what your plan would do would put us in an even deeper recession, your -- your answer is - -

MR. PEROT: I'd say the economy is based on theories. Physics is based on laws. I can tell you when a piece of steel will break. I can tell you how fast a computer chip will cycle. But nobody has economic laws. Whoever this gentlemen is, with all due respect to him, if he could calculate with precision, then we wouldn't have bubbles, we wouldn't have downturns and upturns, and economists would agree, see, because it's all theory and it's imprecise.

MS. WOODRUFF: But does it make you optimistic again that Gov. Clinton or the President is going to make these kind of changes when they are making -- their top advisers are making these kinds of statements?

MR. PEROT: We'll give them every opportunity. That's the best we can do. I find it fascinating. Do you see the other two parties in any way trying to work together for the benefit of the people? We are trying to work with both parties for the benefit of the American people. And it just seems to upset everybody.

MS. WOODRUFF: But if you believe that, why aren't you running? Why haven't you said, I'm a candidate? Because right now, for you to stay where you are, you're -- people say, he's going to be a spoiler, he's not going to get enough votes to win, but he's going to tip the race one way or another, he's going to have an effect other than the effect that he --

MR. PEROT: I have every confidence that if the volunteers thought felt that we would play the role of spoiler, they would decide to sit this one out. The volunteers would make that decision. Certainly I don't want to be a spoiler. I don't know a single volunteer that wants to be a spoiler. And I find it fascinating. You know, there was a time when we led in the polls, since everybody loves to talk about polls, over both candidates. Nobody ever brought up that one of those two guys was a spoiler. Only when the candidate chosen by the people pops up, then he can be a spoiler. Either party it's okay to be a spoiler, but not a party - - a person chosen by the people -- fascinating.

MS. WOODRUFF: Just one other thing I wanted to touch on with you, and that is that there was an article that came out this month in the magazine Vanity Fair. I'm sure youdidn't like the article because there were a number of quotes from people who worked in your campaign for a while and then left and said some unflattering things about you. But among other things, they said part of the reason you got out of the race was because you knew there were news stories that were about to surface about your investigating a former boyfriend of your daughter who was a Jewish professor at Vanderbilt University, another story about a former employee of your former company, EDS, who was fired when it was found out that he had the HIV virus, and other allegations like that.

MR. PEROT: Did you read the article?

MS. WOODRUFF: I did read it.

MR. PEROT: Would you consider it professional journalism? Did you consider it anything more than tabloid journalism? Would you tell your viewers who was on the cover and what she was wearing? Madonna wearing very little. I mean, I wouldn't dignify that with a conversation. And I'm amazed that it comes up on PBS. That is the most irrelevant, inaccurate article that could possibly be written. I wouldn't even want to discuss it.

MS. WOODRUFF: What about some of the comments not just in that article but elsewhere from Ed Rollins, who's the former, of course, political consultant? He worked for you for what, two months, and has since said the reason Ross Perot never was going to be elected President was that he's too temperamental. He went on to say you were too thin-skinned, too egotistical, and used some very unflattering terms about you.

MR. PEROT: Well, everybody deserves his 15 minutes of fame. I find it fascinating that a person who was on my payroll would leave the payroll and then just make up endless stories. That -- if that gets him television time, television attention, and a few words on public television tonight, I guess that's important to him and he got it. The facts are I spent almost no time with Ed Rollins. The facts are I had no interest in hiring Ed Rollins. The facts are some of my associates felt he could help them. He had almost no contact with me. I can assure you, you cannot find anybody that ever saw me lose my temper when Ed Rollins was around. And you are going to be hard put to find people who have ever -- have seen me have a temper tantrum. But in the world of tabloid elections, in the world where everything has to be reduced to mud wrestling, and creates an environment where the only people who will run are people who are so power-driven and ego-driven that they will do anything to get the job, this is what the American people get. I don't want to participate in that. I don't want to be a part of it. And it's just -- you know -- it's just -- I just find it bizarre that instead of talking about the issues that are make or break issues for the American people, everybody wants to talk about tabloid journalism. I don't want to. I wouldn't be a part of it. I certainly wouldn't feed it, and I find it appalling that parties have whole teams of people whose whole mission in life is to try to find something negative or dirty, and if they can't find it, make it up.

MS. WOODRUFF: Do you believe that by election day you will have had a positive impact on this campaign, ultimately down the road, for whoever's elected President?

MR. PEROT: Certainly that's our goal, and since it's got to be one of the most unpleasant experiences I've ever been in in my life, I certainly hope so.

MS. WOODRUFF: But you're back in anyway perhaps?

MR. PEROT: I am back in because the people have asked me to do this and, as I said, I owe that to them, and I will do it.

MS.WOODRUFF: But, again, Mr. Perot, it's hard for people to understand -- you were in, you were out, and now you're saying I may get in, or I may not get in.

MR. PEROT: No, talk to the volunteers. This -- it's not I get in. We're trying -- and this is their wish -- to make the two-party system work. And we're all working hard to do it. We think that's constructive. It's pretty obvious that, you know -- there's a strong feeling that it's not. But I think that the 5 1/2 million people who actually sign petitions, plus the other millions who support this activity, have every right to express their views. And we want to do it in a constructive way. And only want to do it in a way that's good for the country. And I just wish that didn't upset people so much inside the establishment. But I guess it does, and I'm sorry.

MS. WOODRUFF: All right. Well, Ross Perot, we thank you very much for being with us.

MR. PEROT: Nice to be with you.

MR. MacNeil: Still ahead on the NewsHour, politics in Orange County, California, and political analysis by Gergen & Shields. FOCUS - CALIFORNIA CROSSOVER

MR. MacNeil: Next tonight, presidential politics as viewed from Orange County. A recent poll shows President Bush and Gov. Clinton running neck and neck in this conservative traditionally Republican county just South of Los Angeles. Last month, the daily newspaper ran an editorial asking Bush to step aside and not to run for a second term. The battle for Orange County could determine who wins the state of California. We have this report from correspondent Jeffrey Kaye of public station KCET-Los Angeles.

PRESIDENT BUSH: And I'm honored to accept your nomination for President of the United States.

MR. KAYE: Last month at the Richard M. Nixon Library in Orange County, California, party loyalists gathered to watch the President's acceptance speech at the Republican Convention.

PRESIDENT BUSH: He's been spotted in more places than Elvis Presley.

MR. KAYE: The rousing reception typified traditional politics in Orange County. Die hard Republicans and conservative Democrats gave GOP presidential candidates more than 2/3 majorities in the last three elections. For the crowd at the Richard M. Nixon Library, it seemed the tradition would continue.

LAURA MAHAN: He did a great job. He brought up all the issues people wanted to hear about and he apologized for the tax increases and talked about family values. And I think people want to go back to family values.

BUCK JOHNS: It was a marvelous speech. I just -- I thought it was delightful.

MR. KAYE: I'm assuming you also had enthusiasm for Bush before you came here.

BUCK JOHNS: Dead right. We're in the Nixon Library. I don't know if you noticed it or not.

MR. KAYE: But away from the Nixon Library, polls indicate Orange County voters are less excited about the President. Surveys indicate the economy is the No. 1 issue for Orange County voters. Although a recent Orange County street fair invoked memories of better times, the economic recession has hit this area hard.

SPOKESMAN: Are you registered to vote, sir?

MAN: I am.

MR. KAYE: Polls in Orange County indicate voters could go either way in the presidential contest. That spells trouble for Republicans who in the past have relied on the county's lop-sided GOP vote to give them the edge in California. Democrats are playing on the deep discontent.

WOMAN: I just -- Bush -- I mean, the country -- my brother-in- law just lost his job.

MR. KAYE: Orange County has long been dependent on defense jobs. In the last 18 months, residents have suffered from cutbacks in the aerospace industry and from the recession. Recently, Vice President Dan Quayle campaigned at a McDonnell-Douglas plant in Orange County. Quayle warned workers that Bill Clinton proposes even deeper cuts in the defense budget and in aerospace. The Vice President reassured employees about their job.

PRESIDENT BUSH: And as long as George Bush is President, the space station is safe, and so is your job.

MR. KAYE: But an hour after this speech, 60 employees, some of whom worked on the station, were handed pink slips.

RANDY KING: It came as a bit of a surprise to have a Vice President tell your jobs are secure and an hour later to tell you - - to be told you're laid off.

MR. KAYE: Randy King was one of those laid off. King is registered as an independent and may vote for Clinton. He supported Bush in 1988.

RANDY KING: He made the issue as trade, but jobs and the economy I think walk in with that.

MR. KAYE: Brian Lewis and his mother, Yvonne, are Republicans. Brian's wife, Tracy, is a Democrat. All three voted for Bush in 1988, but the Lewises are less than enthusiastic about any of the candidates this election.

MR. KAYE: Who are you going to vote for?

BRIAN LEWIS: Well, probably Bush, but there really isn't a choice. I -- I -- the reason I say Bush is because I Republican. The -- Clinton I'm afraid is going to raise taxes and Bush, I don't know what he's going to do. We're stagnated. I'd like to vote for none of the above, or a different choice, but there isn't --

TRACY LEWIS: I don't trust Clinton and I fear Bush. So I've got promises being made on one end by Bush, who's been making promises all along that obviously he hasn't kept.

MR. KAYE: In the 1980s, Republicans benefited from the mass defections of voters who became known as Reagan Democrats. In this election, at least in Orange County, Clinton Republicans might be an important factor.

BOB NELSON, Republican for Clinton: After 20 years as an active Republican, I've concluded that our country will be best served by Bill Clinton serving as our president.

MR. KAYE: As the GOP convention wound up, eight prominent Orange County Republicans announced they had joined the Clinton camp.

KATHRYN THOMPSON, Republican for Clinton: The convention was a grand old party, all right, but the American people weren't invited.

MR. KAYE: One of the so-called Orange eight is developer Kathryn Thompson, a member of Team 100, an organization of people who contributed at least $100,000 to Republican causes over the past four years. Thompson said Bush's handling of the economy was the main reason she switched to Clinton.

KATHRYN THOMPSON: I think we need a change because I think President Bush has failed to form a coalition with the Congress and face the economic issues that are facing the country.

MR. KAYE: one of those particularly disappointed by Thompson's defection was Gus Owen, Thompson's husband.

GUS OWEN: [giving Vice President Quayle award ] -- to an outstanding Vice President. We're going to take that White House back again.

MR. KAYE: Owen is President of Orange County's Lincoln Club, a Republican fund-raising group. He understands his wife's displeasure with the President, even though he has remained a Bush supporter.

MR. KAYE: Do you think your wife is off base in -- in what she's doing?

GUS OWEN: I think that she's probably not off base from the fact that the White House does have a certain deafness or did have at that time to the economic needs confronting the nation as a whole. But I think also they were still focusing on the international situation, his wrapping up Desert Storm, which President Bush had done an outstanding job pulling all of that together. I think that now though he is refocused and he is applying himself more and more so to the domestic issues and the economic recovery.

KATHRYN THOMPSON: The problem I think we have is, we have a leader who has no vision, who did not focus in on the economic issues because that was not his first love.

MR. KAYE: The economy is not the only issue pushing Republicans into the Clinton camp. The debate over abortion is also affecting some voters.

TRACY LEWIS: It will definitely influence me. I think that women are losing too many -- too many of their rights as it is. I think that they've chopped away at that way too much personally.

MR. KAYE: At the opening of an Orange County Democratic campaign office, Clinton's supporters emphasized abortion rights.

MIDGE CONSTANZA, Democratic Activist: Not the President of the United States or his co-conspirators in the Congress, his collaborators in the right wing will ever, ever make the decision for any woman in this country on whether or not she bears a child, never!

MR. KAYE: Moderate Republicans like Susan Margorien are getting the message. Margorien says the Democrats used to be too liberal, but now the Republicans are too conservative.

SUSAN MARGORIEN: I'm damned if I'll have an elected official, a politician, he or she, stuck their head up out of the trough and tell me how to make family values and how to live my life. I have an excellent mother and father, and a good minister, and if I need assistance of that sort, I know where to go. And I certainly wouldn't go to a politician.

MR. KAYE: The politician, who up until recently worked out of this office in the City of Orange, was a Republican assemblyman. Now, Democrats who used to picket the office have beliefs. Volunteers here see that as a sign of the times.

MR. KAYE: Are things changing in the city?

KATHLEEN MOHN, Clinton Supporter: I am so shocked. I really think they are. I went to dinner two nights ago with a friend who considers herself a moderate Republican, but I think she's pretty conservative. And she said she is going to quietly vote for Clinton. And I couldn't believe it.

MR. KAYE: At the Bush/Quayle headquarters, volunteers said the media are making too much of disloyal Republicans. Bush partisans feel that Orange County will once again come through for the President.

SPOKESMAN: I mean, here's a group of supporters that I mean, this isn't a large, a huge group --

MR. KAYE: That's right.

SPOKESMAN: -- but considering the population of Orange County - -

MR. KAYE: Right.

SPOKESMAN: -- who's ever been asked in a poll? My question is: Who are they calling?

MR. KAYE: So you just discount the poll?

SPOKESMAN: At this point, yeah.

DICK MURPHY, Bush Supporter: When the Republicans get in the voting booth, they're going to think of one thing, George -- right here -- George Bush, who do you trust, or the draft dodging Clinton, and think of him as commander in chief and President of the United States, you absolutely can't do anything but vote for George Bush.

GADDI VASQUEZ, Orange County Supervisor: [giving speech] President Bush is an American who cares about you and me!

MR. KAYE: Orange County Supervisor Gaddi Vasquez, a speaker at the GOP Convention, feels the county will remain true to its Republican reputation and vote for Bush. He discounts reports that the Republicans' big tent is shrinking.

GADDI VASQUEZ: I stand here today because the Republican Party has seen fit to open the doors of inclusion. That would not have happened had that opportunity not been there. I'm also amazed that the press and others seem to have overlooked the fact that over 50 percent of the people who spoke at the Republican National Convention in Houston, Texas, were women and minorities.

MR. KAYE: State Senator Marian Bergeson is California Co-Chair of the Bush/Quayle campaign. She says the next few weeks will be critical. STATE SENATOR MARIAN BERGESON, Bush/Quayle Campaign. Campaigns are a little bit like basketball games. They're won in the last three seconds. And I think that what happens in the last week before the campaign is what is going to be critical for the outcome.

MR. KAYE: I get the very distinct impression that there's a very good chance that you, all of you, could just wind up on the day of the election going in there and finally making up your mind, am I right?

YVONNE LEWIS: Eeney, meeney, miney, moe.

MR. KAYE: Yeah.

MR. LEWIS: Maybe.

TRACY LEWIS: Pretty much that.

MR. LEWIS: Pretty scary.

MR. KAYE: The Lewis family plans to watch the debates, hoping to hear something that will make their decision easier.

MR. MacNeil: As of this afternoon, those debates still have not been arranged. The two campaigns have yet to agree on a debate format. FOCUS - '92 - GERGEN & SHIELDS

MR. MacNeil: It's Friday. And that means some end-of-the-week political analysis from our team of Gergen & Shields. David Gergen is editor at large at U.S. News & World Report. Mark Shields is a syndicated columnist. David, if Republicans in Orange County can feel that ambivalent about their incumbent President, can George Bush win this election?

MR. GERGEN: I'm not sure he can win California, Robin. Any time MacNeil/Lehrer is doing a story out of Orange County about a close race, a county that Republicans traditionally need to carry by 300,000 votes to win California, and it's a toss-up right in that county, that means that state's gone. You know, Gov. Pete Wilson, the Republican governor, has said that economic times there are -- in California are the worst since the Great Depression. And it was the UCLA study that came out yesterday saying it's going to get worse still, it's not going to get better till sometime in 1993 at best. So, indeed, Robin, I think California is gone. It does change the dynamics of the rest of the nation because it makes it much more important for George Bush to win a great deal of the Midwest now, and it would be in a typical election.

MR. MacNeil: Mark, has this week's campaigning produced anything to give the Republicans hope? There hasn't been much change in the polls.

MR. SHIELDS: There hasn't been, Robin. Just one point though on California. I think California is -- is indispensable to a Clinton victory. For Bill Clinton to win, he has to carry California. California is the -- the parallel state that -- that Texas is to George Bush. George Bush cannot win the election without winning Texas I think virtually every Republican analyst would concede, and almost all Democrats acknowledge that Bill Clinton can't win without California and that he's going to win California right now -- all indicators. As far as this past week, George Bush has been stuck since the first of September really in what could be called a flat line. It -- he -- every poll has shown a difference, and it seems that this year every weekly advertising supplement and FM Radio station of 150 watts or more has its own poll. But you look at all of them and the only real difference is the Clinton number. Bush hashad a -- had a floor of about 38 percent in the national polls, virtually every poll, and a ceiling of about 42 percent. It has been Clinton who has been 46 or he's been 48 or he's been 50 or 52 or 53, and would only -- I think the best indicator that Bush has not narrowed the margin the way the Republicans hoped he would is that they haven't debated. Both Jim Baker and Bob Teeter, the President's pollster and chairman of his campaign, believe that once a debate is engaged -- and I think David could comment on this knowingly and knowledgeably -- but once a debate is set that it freezes people's attitudes and they look only to the debate. And I think they, quite frankly, want the race to have narrowed. Virtually all polls have showed a narrowing, but not the kind of narrowing that Teeter, Baker, and Bush had hoped for.

MR. MacNeil: Well, speaking of debates, David, was President Bush smart to dodge the first debate, and is he smart to try and insist on his format?

MR. GERGEN: I think he's smart, Robin, to insist on a format change that favors him. He feels that -- his campaign feels that the single moderator format that's been proposed by the Commission and which Bill Clinton has accepted so readily is one which perhaps favors Clinton, because Clinton is seen, as one White House aide told me this week -- he's an Oxford debater, he has the capacity to -- he's very versatile, fast on his feet. They would like a somewhat more structured debate in the Bush campaign, obviously, and I think it's not unreasonable that they fight for something that favors a candidate. Every campaign does that. I do think that the President -- if they don't get into some kind of negotiation or serious discussion pretty soon -- I was in Ohio yesterday and Republicans came up to me and said they were bothered by the fact that the President seemed to be hanging back. What's he afraid of? Why doesn't he do something? I think -- I think they don't want to let this persist very long. I think that they at some point soon, they need to set a debate. But Mark's right. Between the date you set the debate and the day you have the debate, there does tend to be a freeze in people's attitudes. People do tend to sort of await that. So I think -- what I would say is that the Republicans ought to get their debate strategy in mind -- get into the negotiations and have a debate quickly and then try to change the dynamics of this race quickly.

MR. MacNeil: How does the debate -- do the debate dynamics and politics cut for Clinton, Mark? I mean, usually it's the person who's trailing who desperately wants to debate.

MR. SHIELDS: Yes. I think -- I think that for Bill Clinton it's working right now. It's certainly working I think both retail and wholesale. Retail it's working in Michigan. Bill Clinton has been to Michigan. He's going there on the night which the debate was scheduled, next Tuesday going to Lansing, making a major economic speech. I think it gives him a certain edge. The very thing that David commented upon in Ohio is present in spades in Michigan, sort of a sense of why didn't the President, why has the President let us down, and it's sort of a sense that we've been snubbed. And I think Clinton has taken advantage of that on a retail way, but in a wholesale sense I think it helps Bill Clinton because the charge against Bill Clinton, quite frankly, is one of character. And this one Republican said to me that the only hope they have right now - - the principle hope the Republicans have -- is to blow a hole in Bill Clinton's character. And I think by -- by beingthe aggressor in the debate, by showing a willingness, it certainly shows that this is a guy who's not afraid to go mono a mono, to stand up to the President, to challenge him, to meet him toe to toe, to debate anything.

MR. GERGEN: Robin, can I add a point about the wait, because the Republicans do have a sense that -- Mark said about blowing a hole -- the Republicans do think that they've put a leak into the Bill Clinton vote this week. And they feel that this -- on this trust issue that the draft question is beginning to ship away at Clinton's strength. While Bush has been very stable, there are some indications -- they're very tentative -- that perhaps some voters are moving away from Clinton -- not to Bush -- but to undecided. And that undecided block seems to be growing slightly. The Bush people feel that -- that by raising the draft issue they've done that. And frankly for the first time in the campaign, I would say that the press has spent some time helping -- indirectly helping Bush by pursuing the draft issue the way it is. I almost sense, Robin, this week there's been -- within the press there's been a feeling we've been accused so long of favoring Clinton let's now take on the draft issue and be very aggressive about it.

MR. MacNeil: David, let's pick up on the fascinating interview that Judy did with Perot. Listening to him and being aware of all the polls and things you are, what is Perot -- assuming he does not jump back in and say I am a candidate, if that's a safe assumption, I don't know -- but what factor is he in this election now?

MR. GERGEN: He -- he represents the question mark that nobody knows quite how to deal with. You know, I don't know what Ross Perot is going to do. And I'm not sure Ross Perot knows what he's going to do. I do think what he -- what we are probably facing, Robin, is that he very much wants to buy some advertising time on television to take his case about the American economy to the people, not to say to elect me, Ross Perot, as President, but to say here what the country needs to do. And he's seriously considering making some sort of formal declaration of candidacy in order to get on television, because he says the networks right now won't sell him the time unless he's a formal candidate, so that even though he might go on and say don't vote for me, here's my plan, and try to put some more pressure on, but in the end, I think that he's such a wild card, he continues to be such a wild card, obviously, the Bush people fear that if he gets in heavily, he can draw votes in Texas. As Mark said earlier, Texas is a linchpin state for Bush so that if Perot drew votes, the thought is that maybe he would toss Texas over to Clinton. At the same the Clinton people have a small fear that if Perot gets in too heavily into California he might pull out the linchpin in California. So, you know, the truth is I don't think any of us has a clue at this point what Ross Perot's ultimate impact on this race is going to be.

MR. MacNeil: So, Mark, it's up to you.

MR. SHIELDS: Without a clue, here's what Ross Perot is up to. I don't know. I will say that he's already had enormous impact on this race by his leaving it. The way and the conditions and the timing of his departure from this race gave Bill Clinton the kind of lift that has projected him into the leadership of this race. Remember, he did it the third day of the Democratic Convention in New York. It gave Clinton an enormous lift. He had made the case - - did Ross Perot -- for six weeks prior to that convention on why George Bush's administrationought to be denied re-election when Clinton, himself, was really in a position not to make that case. He was kind of making his own moves, trying to pull himself together after a series of damaging primary fights. So Perot has already had an enormous impact. The thing I think that drives him into frustration is two factors and one that is totally subjective; the other is objective. He raised that issue of the deficit. He raised it in a way that would have forced the other two candidates if he had remained an active candidate himself to address it. At it is now, the deficit has become the savings and loan issue of 1992. Remember in 1988, there was sort of a gentlemen's agreement that the savings and loans weren't mentioned, because both parties had enough blood on their hands in that debacle and tragedy, and it wasn't until after the election that we even really addressed it as a government. And I think, quite frankly, the same thing is going on. Neither party, neither candidate, has the will nor the plan to address the deficit in a meaningful fashion. Ross Perot cares about it. He's raised it. I think the second factor - -

MR. MacNeil: But he also didn't have -- he shrank from his own - - from the pain of his own plan.

MR. SHIELDS: You're absolutely right. And that's the marvelous and terribly perplexing feature of American politics, which is: Are -- candidates and issues are inseparable. There wasn't an anti-tax national presidential campaign till Ronald Reagan mounted it. There wasn't an anti-war campaign till George McGovern let it. I think the final point on why Ross Perot is -- Ross Perot is trying to rewrite the first paragraph of his obituary. The first paragraph of his obituary right now will be Ross Perot, billionaire, American entrepreneur, self-made man, who for the first and only time in history as an independent candidate led both presidential nominees in national polls and then quit. And I think that bothers him --

MR. MacNeil: We -- this -- all of this is to be continued next week. David and Mark, thank you. RECAP

MS. WOODRUFF: Again, the major stories of this Friday, President Bush defended his position against government-mandated family leave and said his policies would benefit working women. Bill Clinton told workers at Sandia National Laboratories that technology would be a key part of his plan for economic revival. And the House passed an $11 billion aid bill for storm victims in Florida, Louisiana, Hawaii, and Guam. Good night, Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Good night, Judy. We will be back Monday night with a look at what's happening to the idea of a united Europe. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.