The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight: Our summary of the news; then coverage of President Bush's day in London; a look at two more bombings in Istanbul that killed at least 27 people, including Britain's top diplomat there; an extended report on the two-man Democratic caucus race in Iowa between Howard Dean and Richard Gephardt; and some perspective on why so many Americans believe the Kennedy assassination was the result of a conspiracy.

NEWS SUMMAR

JIM LEHRER: Two suicide truck bombs killed at least 27 people in Istanbul, Turkey today. Nearly 450 others were wounded. The highest-ranking British diplomat in Turkey was among the dead. We have a report from Juliet Bremner of Independent Television News. (Explosion)

JULIET BREMNER: This is the moment the first bomb went off. In the busy streets around the British consulate, scenes of panic. This is the center of Istanbul but there was no mistaking the target: The smoke rising from the streets around the consulate signaling the worst terrorist atrocity against British interests for decades. Among the dead and injured: Many Turks on their way to work or out shopping. The devastation was visible for miles around. In the city center, broken glass and debris was everywhere: Smoke and flames marking the spot where the bomb was detonated. One driver caught in the blast but desperate to leave the scene, even with the car window shattered. Rescuers had to tear at the rubble with their bare hands, here trying to reach injured trapped in their cars. Witnesses say they said a truck speeding towards the consulate building seconds before the explosion. The timing and the choice of target pointing to al-Qaida as the most likely culprit. Among the dead, Britain's consul general to Turkey Roger Short, who was working in the office on the grounds when the bomb went off. The second bomb shattered the entire facade of this 12-story office block, which is the Turkish headquarters of the London-based international bank HSBC. The bomb started a fire inside the building. The flames were quickly extinguished. The Turkish authorities have already linked the blast to recent attacks on two Istanbul synagogues, which killed 25 people.

JIM LEHRER: In London, President Bush and British Prime Minister Blair condemned the bombings. But they insisted such attacks would not change their policy in Iraq. We'll have more on the bombings and the president's trip in a moment. Thousands of antiwar demonstrators marched through central London for hours today, protesting the Iraq War. They banged drums and blew whistles and denounced President Bush. Scotland Yard estimated the crowd at about 70,000. Organizers claimed nearly three times that number. In Iraq today, a suicide truck bomber killed four bystanders and wounded at least 30 others in Kirkuk. The target was the office of a Kurdish Party. Its leader, Jalal Talabani, is currently president of the Iraqi Governing Council. And west of Baghdad last night, a car bomb killed two people in Ramadi at the home of a pro- American tribal leader. Also in Ramadi, a U.S. soldier was killed late today by a roadside bomb. But earlier, a top U.S. Officer reported a new offensive against the insurgents is working. Brigadier General Martin Dempsey said attacks against U.S. Forces had dropped sharply since the campaign began 12 days ago. He spoke in a hookup from Baghdad.

BRIG. GEN. MARTIN DEMPSEY: I don't want to necessarily encourage the enemy in any way here. I'm working as hard as I can to discourage them. But I'd say that from the period prior to Operation Iron Hammer to now, the attacks are down about 70 percent. And we're working as hard as we possibly can to keep it that way and drive it to zero.

JIM LEHRER: The offensive has involved almost daily air strikes, ground assaults, and searches in and around Baghdad. President Bush today left open the possibility of sending more troops to Iraq. In London, he said troop levels could go lower or higher, depending on what's needed to do the job. A new survey reported today more Iraqis want American forces to stay until security improves. The Psychological Research Center at Baghdad University found more than 70 percent feel that way. That's up from 42 percent in June. Hundreds of demonstrators in Miami clashed with police today. They were protesting talks to create a free trade zone covering 34 nations in north and south America. They said it would cost thousands of U.S. Jobs and exploit cheap labor in other countries. Police used batons, shields, concussion grenades, and stun guns to control the crowds. At least 36 people were arrested. There were more signs of economic recovery today. The Conference Board, a private research group, said its index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.4 percent in October. That's a key measure of future activity. Also today, the Labor Department reported new claims for jobless benefits fell again last week. But on wall street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 71 points to close at 9619. The NASDAQ fell more than 17 points to close below 1882. The U.S. Justice Department unveiled a crackdown on Internet crime today. It targets stolen credit card numbers and sales of stolen items, among other things. The investigation has uncovered some 125,000 victims since it began on October 1. In all, their losses have topped $ 100 million. So far, 125 people have been arrested or convicted in the investigation. Pop singer Michael Jackson surrendered to police in southern California today on child molesting charges. He was led into the Santa Barbara County Jail in handcuffs after returning from Las Vegas by private jet. He was released later on $ 3 million bond. Jackson's attorney called the allegations "a big lie." That's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to: President Bush inLondon; the Turkey bombings; the Dean-Gephardt race in Iowa; and public conspiracy opinion on the Kennedy assassination.

FOCUS SHOULDER TO SHOULDER

JIM LEHRER: The president's day in London, mostly in the company of Prime Minister Tony Blair. Ray Suarez narrates our report.

RAY SUAREZ: President Bush began the day with a wreath-laying at the Tomb of the Unknown Warrior at London's Westminster Abbey. He then met privately for 20 minutes with families of some of the 50 British soldiers killed in Iraq. Nearby, tens of thousands of antiwar demonstrators gathered in central London. The protesters marched past parliament on the way to Trafalgar Square, where they toppled a giant effigy of Mr. Bush. ( Cheers and applause ) The demonstrators were kept away from Ten Downing Street, where the president held talks with Prime Minister Blair. At a press conference, the two leaders said today's deadly attacks in Turkey would not deter them in the fight against terrorism.

TONY BLAIR: Once again, we must affirm that in the face of this terrorism, there must be no holding back, no compromise, no hesitation in confronting this menace, in attacking it, wherever and whenever we can, and in defeating it utterly.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: I also want to express my deep sympathy for the loss of life in Turkey. The nature of the terrorist enemy is evident once again. We see their contempt-- their utter contempt-- for innocent life. They hate freedom. They hate free nations. Today, once again, we saw their ambitions of murder. The cruelty is part of their strategy. The terrorists hope to intimidate, they hope to demoralize. They particularly want to intimidate and demoralize free nations. They're not going to succeed.

RAY SUAREZ: Both men defended the war in Iraq and promised to keep troops there as long as necessary.

TONY BLAIR: Could I ask both leaders about the agenda on Iraq? You are both engaged in an unpredictable and dangerous war, as we've seen today. And yet, you say you want to bring the troops home starting from next year. Now, how is that possible when the security situation is still so unresolved?

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: I said that we're going to bring our troops home starting next year? What I said is that we'll match the security needs with the number of troops necessary to secure Iraq. And we're relying upon our commanders on the ground to make those decisions.

REPORTER: So you'll keep a certain number of troops in Iraq for a longer time?

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: We could have less troops in Iraq, we could have the same number of troops in Iraq, we could have more troops in Iraq, what is ever necessary to secure Iraq.

TONY BLAIR: And let me make it absolutely clear for our position, as well. We stay until the job gets done. And what this latest terrorist outrage shows us is that this is a war. Its main battleground is Iraq. We have got to make sure we defeat these terrorists, the former Saddam people in Iraq, and we must do that because that is an essential part of defeating this fanaticism and extremism that is killing innocent people all over our world today. And I can assure you of one thing, that when something like this happens today, our response is not to flinch or give way or concede one inch. We stand absolutely firm until this job is done: Done in Iraq, done elsewhere in the world.

REPORTER: For both of you, Mr. President, Mr. Prime minister, do the attacks today, do you view them as a direct attack on the alliance?

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: These terrorist attacks are attacks on freedom. And they attack when they can. And our job is to secure our homelands and chase down these killers and bring them to justice. And we're making good progress with al-Qaida. And if you were to view al-Qaida's organization structure as a kind of a board of directors, and then there would be the operating management, we are dismantling the operating management, one person at a time. We're on an international manhunt. I don't know the nature of the casualties today, but I do know the nature of the casualties in the recent attack in Istanbul. More Muslims died in that attack. These are al-Qaida killers killing Muslims. And they need to be stopped. And we will stop them.

TONY BLAIR: See, here's where we got to... we've got to see what this struggle is about, because you can see it clearer and clearer day by day. This is a struggle between fanaticism and extremism on the one hand, and people who believe in freedom and in tolerance on the other.

RAY SUAREZ: The two leaders said they couldn't agree on two contentious issues: The nine British prisoners detained at Guantanamo Bay and U.S. tariffs on European steel. President Bush concluded his London visit by hosting a dinner for Queen Elizabeth. Tomorrow, he's scheduled to travel to Prime Minister Blair's home district in northern England before returning to Washington.

FOCUS TERROR IN TURKEY

JIM LEHRER: Now, the terrorists strike in Turkey, and to Terence Smith.

TERENCE SMITH: For more on the Istanbul bombings, we're joined by Henri Barkey, who served on the State Department's policy planning staff during the Clinton administration. He was born in Turkey, and has written widely about it. He now teaches at Lehigh University and by Bruce Hoffman, editor-in- chief of the journal "Studies in Conflict and Terrorism," and director of the Washington office of RAND, a research organization.

Welcome to you both.

Bruce Hoffman, why Turkey and why now?

BRUCE HOFFMAN: What we've seen in the pattern of al-Qaida operations since Sept. 11, 2001, has been something more akin to op opportunism than intention, in other words, where they've identified a gap in our defenses in the West, they've then relentlessly exploited it. So I think it's in part because they found that gap in Turkey and were confident they could carry out a successful attack.

TERENCE SMITH: Henri Barkey, why Turkey, what's the message in Turkey as a target, now twice in one week?

HENRI BARKEY: Well, I don't think there's a specific message. If you look at the synagogue bombings, that was part of a pattern. Al-Qaida hit a synagogue in Indonesia earlier. It also attacked Spanish and Jewish targets in Casablanca, Morocco, so that was part of a pattern. I think Bruce Hoffman is right, Turkey was a convenient target of opportunism. Turkey has one unique characteristic at the moment, and that is that there are hundreds of thousands of refugees from different parts of the Arab world, from Pakistan, from the Middle East, from Africa, who are trying to get to Europe, trying to make their way to European Union, and therefore they tend to be easily manipulated by al-Qaida. So they may have been used by al-Qaida to do these kinds of activities.

TERENCE SMITH: Bruce Hoffman, Mr. Barkey is talking about al-Qaida as the perpetrating group, and indeed a caller today called the Anatolia News Agency and claimed responsibility on behalf of al-Qaida and a local militant Islamic group. Is that a credible claim of responsibility, in your view?

HENRI BARKEY: I think it is a credible claim. This group, the Islamic Great Eastern Raiders Front is, has been involved-- involved in terrorism for some years, but really terrorism of very different order than we've seen today or on Saturday -- individual assassinations, very small, I mean consequential but not massive terrorism like this. They would have needed the infusion of professional assistance, professional guidance, precisely as we saw which were the hallmarks of al-Qaida, large vehicular car and truck bombs on suicide missions.

TERENCE SMITH: I mean I understand, Bruce Hoffman, the notion that there was an opportunity there and a soft target, if you like. But I'm still looking for the message and the purpose. What's accomplished from al-Qaida's point of view by this sort of attack?

BRUCE HOFFMAN: First and foremost, I think, this is a reflection ironically of our success in the war against terrorism, is that we've deprived al-Qaida of striking at precisely the heart of heart. It's the lucrative targets in the United States or in the United Kingdom they might wish to strike at. So for them this is a demonstration of their ability to act. Al-Qaida cannot afford to remain on the sidelines. It's long portrayed itself as the true defenders of the Muslim faith everywhere. With the upheaval and violence in Iraq it can't afford to be silent. So for them, this was an attempt to rejuvenate their campaign, to show that they're relevant and to attract new supporters and followers.

TERENCE SMITH: Henri Barkey, do you agree with that? And do you see a connection between the Sunday bombings... rather, the weekend bombings of the two synagogues in Istanbul and this as a pattern?

HENRI BARKEY: Oh, I definitely agree. Al-Qaida wants to prove that it is still in existence, that it has a worldwide reach and it can attack at will whenever it wants. I don't think there's a specific message there because these bombings were probably planned months and months in advance. Some people have speculated that this had to do with Turkey's position on Iraq, that the Turkish decision ultimately to send troops to Iraq may have influenced al-Qaida. I don't think that's the case. I think al-Qaida planned this very methodically over a long period of time, and it just turned out that Istanbul was a very convenient location. And in fact, the British Consulate itself is a convenient location, compared to, for instance, the American Consulate who used to be not far from the British Consulate, but has been moved to a much more fortified position and is much more difficult to reach. And therefore, the British Consulate itself in that sense was a target of convenience.

TERENCE SMITH: But Mr. Barkey, do you see a British target on a day when the American president is in London on a state visit, is that coincidence, or is that purpose?

HENRI BARKEY: That's more difficult to answer. My sense is that it is a coincidence in that I don't think the terrorists knew well in advance that there was going to be a meeting between President Bush and Prime Minister Blair on this particular day. If they found out let's say a couple of weeks ago, they may have adjusted their plans accordingly, it's possible. But I don't think we should give much credence to it. The British were targeted in large measure because they are part of the coalition, they are after all, the other country that went into Iraq. They have been the most steadfast ally of the United States in the war against al-Qaida. So the British in that sense are a natural target for al-Qaida. And al-Qaida has many times threatened British and other interests in addition to the United States and Israel. So in that sense, we should not be surprised. In a way, what I think is the most extraordinary event today was the fact that both of these bombs could be detonated so close to each other in a city which is known for its who horrendous traffic. To have two trucks achieve their targets so close to each other, I think is actually... is astonishing. But in that sense, though, I think they were lucky.

TERENCE SMITH: And so Bruce Hoffman, that suggests a high level of sophistication and coordination.

BRUCE HOFFMAN: Yes, I think Professor Barkey's analysis is entirely correct, that these people were infiltrated, the professionals, into Turkey to enlist locals, which has long been an al-Qaida pattern, to provide not just logistical assistance but to be the cannon fodder, in fact the bombers. And I think that they had a long period of preparation I wouldn't be surprised, though, if they did take advantage of the publicity surrounding the president's visit to the United Kingdom, to use that as a hook, in essence, or as a means to steal some of the limelight for themselves and to demonstrate very profoundly that al-Qaida still is a force to be reckoned with. And also I think it's tied to the ferment in Iraq, that Turkey's border with Iraq may have been designed... may have made Turkey a target as part of an al-Qaida design to demonstrate that the violence and instability will not be confined to Iraq only and will spill over into the borders of other countries nearby.

TERENCE SMITH: Henri Barkey, the president made a point of saying that Muslims were the majority of the victims in the weekend bombings and of course appears to be the case again today, particularly among those injured. Is there any possibility, in your mind, of a backlash that might occur vis- -vis al-Qaida taking so many... causing so many casualties among Muslims?

HENRI BARKEY: Well, the Turkish government responded very correctly after the synagogue bombings by saying that, "we should not make a distinction between Muslims and Jews in Turkey, that everybody who died on Saturday were actually Turkish citizens and they were all buried with Turkish flags." So the government in that sense, made a very important point by not distinguishing between Jews and Muslims. But there is no question that this is going to create a backlash. And if al-Qaida thinks that Turkey is going to change its course because of these bombings, it's very, very wrong. Turkey, on the contrary, now will become the front line of the war on terrorism, in part because of all those people that that are already in Turkey, you will find much greater cooperation between Turkish security officials and the rest of the... its allies, NATO allies and others, and in fact today, the NATO general counsel has decided to meet just like it decided to meet after the Sept. 11 bombings in New York and Washington. So it will actually bring Turkey much closer towards the United States and Europe and as a result, I think al-Qaida has defeated itself in the process.

TERENCE SMITH: Your view.

BRUCE HOFFMAN: Well, I hope it does create such a backlash. But I don't think we can be confident that will happen organically. I think al-Qaida's propaganda has long attempted to rally those Muslims that support al-Qaida's view but has taken a very hard line against those who don't. Indeed, this is... it's nothing new that al-Qaida's killed Muslims going back to its first operation in 1995 in Saudi Arabia. It's been very content to kill Muslims as well as "infidels."

TERENCE SMITH: Is it the notion, do you think, Bruce Hoffman, to persuade the Turkish government to change its policies, which are pro western, allied with the U.S. in many respects, and also, quite good relations with Israel? Are Turkey's policies at the heart of this?

BRUCE HOFFMAN: I think that figures into the mix. But first and foremost, I think it's just the opportunism of the attack and the fact that al-Qaida could identify a gap in defenses that it could exploit. This is icing on the cake and helps, but we've seen al-Qaida attacks for instance in Pakistan, in Saudi Arabia, in the Yemen and a variety of countries. It's really wherever they see an opening.

TERENCE SMITH: Okay, Henri Barkey and Bruce Hoffman, thank you both very much.

JIM LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight: Dean versus Gephardt in Iowa, and conspiracy theories versus the facts on the Kennedy assassination.

FOCUS BATTLE IN IOWA

JIM LEHRER: Now we begin a series of reports on the Democratic presidential candidates who have emerged as frontrunners in the early states. Tonight, Margaret Warner looks at Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt in Iowa.

GROUP: No more Bush! No more Bush! No more Bush!

MARGARET WARNER: Thousands of Iowa Democrats poured into Des Moines last weekend to hear their presidential candidates lambaste President Bush...

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: I've served with five presidents. This one is by far the worst. He doesn't know what he's doing!

MARGARET WARNER: ...And cheer their candidates' vows to defeat him.

JOHN KERRY: Tonight marks the beginning of the end of the Bush presidency! ( Cheers )

HOWARD DEAN: And this time, Mr. President, we're going to have more votes than you are. And this time, Mr. President, the person with the most votes is going to the White House. ( Raucous cheering )

MARGARET WARNER: Iowa's first-in-the- nation presidential caucuses are still two months away. Yet the campaign here has an energy and passion more typical of the final days, says Des Moines Register political columnist David Yepsen.

DAVID YEPSEN: This caucus is more intense than any I've ever seen in 30 years of covering this thing. There's a lot of anger about Bush. Democrats want to beat George Bush and so they're turning out.

MARGARET WARNER: It wasn't supposed to be this competitive this soon. Dick Gephardt, a well-known, well-liked congressman from nearby Missouri, was the odds-on favorite to win the 2004 caucuses, just as he did in 1988. But he's got a fight on his hands.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: This is a tight competition. Iowa will be hard to win. Assume nothing.

GROUP: We want Dean! We want Dean!

MARGARET WARNER: The reason is this man, dr. Howard Dean.

HOWARD DEAN: Hi. I'm Howard Dean.

MARGARET WARNER: Early this summer, the former Vermont governor began barnstorming the state's 99 counties, and running TV spots criticizing his Washington rivals.

HOWARD DEAN: I'm Howard Dean. I'm running for president because the only way to beat George Bush is to stand up to him. I opposed the war with Iraq when too many other Democrats supported it.

MARGARET WARNER: Dean hammers the same issue on the stump.

HOWARD DEAN: A misguided war in Iraq was sold to the American people, supported by Democrats who should have asked more questions before they voted last October. The truth is that Iraq posed no imminent threat to the United States of America. We were told that was true, and it was false. (Applause)

MARGARET WARNER: The result: Seesawing polls. Dean overtook Gephardt's April lead in August. Gephardt reclaimed a modest lead early this month. Senator John Kerry is holding a solid third. After an ice hockey game Saturday, he declared he's not out of the running either.

JOHN KERRY: I'm five points away from Howard Dean in Iowa. That's nothing. Five points.

MARGARET WARNER: The only other two Democrats making a play in Iowa, senator john Edwards and

REP. DENNIS KUCINICH: I'm a congressman from Ohio running for president.

MARGARET WARNER: ...Congressman Dennis Kucinich, are stuck in single digits. The stakes are huge for the two current frontrunners, especially for the under-funded Gephardt.

SPOKESMAN: Dick Gephardt has to win Iowa or he's going to be out of the race. If Howard Dean can beat dick Gephardt in Iowa and beat John Kerry in New Hampshire, he's going to create a bow wave in front of him that may make him unstoppable for the nomination.

MARGARET WARNER: We found Iowa Democrats measuring the field against one test above all: Who can beat President Bush?

MARGARET WARNER: What are you looking for in trying to choose between the Democrats?

BETTY WINOKUR, Retired Social Worker: A winner. ( Laughs that's mostly what I'm interested in.

MARGARET WARNER: On the issues, Gephardt and dean sound remarkably alike. Both attack the president's $ 3 trillion tax cuts, and say they'd roll them back to fund health insurance. (Applause) Both men attack President Bush for isolating America in the world and in Iraq, and vow they'd handle things differently.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: He went to the U.N. and said, "we're going to do this with our without you. Have a nice day." Is that a way to get people to help you?

HOWARD DEAN: I will restore the honor and the dignity and the respect that this country deserves around the rest of the world by engaging in a foreign policy based on cooperation, and not confrontation. (Applause )

MARGARET WARNER: But they present themselves as very different men and potential leaders. Gephardt's populist pitch to voters is that he's one of them; he understands their hardships because of his own modest upbringing and his own family's struggles, like the near-death of his young son, Matt, from cancer.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: I remember walking in the room. He was in the crib. He was 18 months old. I couldn't talk to him. I couldn't explain why he was in such pain. And all I could do is grab him and hold him and not let him go, because I didn't think we had a shot. A few days later, the doctor said, "We found some new therapies. We don't think they'll work. Your insurance will cover it." Magic phrase.

MARGARET WARNER: Matt survived. He's 32 today.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: He's a gift of God. He shouldn't be here. But he's here because we had insurance.

MARGARET WARNER: And so should everyone, Gephardt says.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: This in the end is a moral issue.

MARGARET WARNER: Gephardt, whose father was a Teamster, also proudly embraces his long support for labor. He's counting on members of nearly two dozen unions, like cement plant worker Mike Dunn, to organize and turn out for him.

MARGARET WARNER: Why are you for Dick Gephardt?

MIKE DUNN: Jobs. It's just... it's all about jobs to me and our membership. We've lost so many good industrial jobs overseas, down in Mexico. Gephardt has consistently voted against NAFTA and all free trade agreements, and we want to bring our jobs back to the United States.

MARGARET WARNER: Above all, on the stump and in his TV spots, Gephardt touts his experience as Democratic leader in Congress, passing legislation like the '93 Clinton economic plan.

ANNOUNCER: Democratic leader dick Gephardt digs in and wins the fight in congress by one vote. The result: The longest expansion ever. Millions of new jobs.

MARGARET WARNER: Sitting at a cafe Sunday, Gephardt argued that his career in Congress would be a stronger selling point against President Bush than Dean's record in Vermont.

REP RICHARD GEPHARDT: He has said he balanced the budget in Vermont. That's great. But I've balanced the budget of the United States. My experience is important in this race. And I think Americans-- especially with terrorism and all the problems we have-- are not going to want to give this responsibility to somebody they're not sure about their ability to handle the problems.

MARGARET WARNER: Howard Dean touts his experience, too, as a governor who solved real-life problems.

HOWARD DEAN: In my state, everyone under 18 has health insurance. In my state, everybody under 150 percent of poverty has health insurance. In my state, we got tired of waiting for Washington, so one- third of all our seniors have prescription benefits.

MARGARET WARNER: Dean has a populist pitch, too, of a different sort than Gephardt's. He doesn't speak about his wealthy upbringing. But he projects himself as a political outsider who identifies with the alienation people feel from their government.

HOWARD DEAN: The biggest lie that's told by people like me at election time to people like you is that if you vote for me, I'm going to fix all your problems. The truth is, the power to change this country is in your hands, not mine. And you have the power to take this party back and make it stand up for something again. (Applause)

MARGARET WARNER: Dean's pitch has energized all kinds of voters. He's used the Internet to harness that energy and build a formidable grassroots team that includes professionals, three unions, and even many students. They've rarely participated in caucuses before, but insist they will for Howard Dean. David Sitzky is a high school senior from Dubuque.

DAVID SITZKY: If you look at this, there's so much energy in this room, that he brings young people and gets young people excited. He's the first candidate in a while to show young people they do have a vote and it does matter.

MARGARET WARNER: Riding between campaign stops, Dean argued that Gephardt's years in Congress and his cooperation with President Bush on issues like the Iraq War would undercut him with voters.

HOWARD DEAN: We can't win without standing up for what we believe in. It's why we haven't won much lately. We need new leadership in this country and we're not going to get it with Dick, with all due respect to Dick, who I voted for in 1988. We're not going to get it from somebody who spent 27 years in Congress making deals with the very people he now says he opposes.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: Maybe he hasn't followed what's been going on since 1994. I led the effort against the Republican Revolution. I'd say I opposed them on 95 percent of what they came up with over the ten years they've been in charge of the House and 95 percent of what George Bush wanted to do. I didn't elect George Bush. I'm sorry he's president. I'm trying to get rid of him. But he happens to be right now the only president we have.

MARGARET WARNER: Still, voters challenge him on his vote for the war and the latest $ 87 billion funding bill. Gephardt has an answer.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: I don't think it's responsible to say to our young people who are over there dodging bullets every day that we're not behind them. But we have to see this thing through.

MARGARET WARNER: After Dean overtook him in the polls, Gephardt mounted a fierce counterattack. A Gephardt-sponsored web site, deanfacts.Com, charges that Governor Dean backed Republican efforts to slash Medicare and Social Security, and send American jobs overseas through trade agreements like NAFTA, then flip-flopped on the issues when he became a candidate for president.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: We've got to have a candidate who can go up against Bush on privatization of Medicare. We've got to have somebody who can go up against bush on trade laws.

MARGARET WARNER: Not surprisingly, in a state where three-fourths of past caucus-goers have been over 50 or union members, Dean gets questions about all this.

HOWARD DEAN: One of the things you find when you're in the lead, you often find yourself taking buckshot of out your rear end. ( Laughter ) Do not believe all these things politicians are telling you: "He's going to cut this. He's against Medicare." Well, God knows what else they said. It's not true.

MARGARET WARNER: Privately, he expresses frustration at Gephardt's attack.

HOWARD DEAN: He's scaring seniors with talk about Medicare, just like Democrats have always done.

MARGARET WARNER: He says you said it was the worst federal program ever.

HOWARD DEAN: I did. Because it was the worst administered federal program ever doesn't mean I want to get rid of Medicare. You would never get rid of Medicare in your right mind if you're a physician. But it's a badly run program and it needs to be fixed.

MARGARET WARNER: What about the things that he's saying about you, that you have changed your position?

HOWARD DEAN: Of course I've changed my position. You'd have to be an idiot not to change your position based on facts. I was a supporter of NAFTA and a supporter of WTO. But the evidence is they haven't helped working people in America. They haven't created more jobs.

MARGARET WARNER: With two months to go, many voters still seem in a quandary. Kathy Hayes came to hear Gephardt Sunday, but left still undecided.

KATHY HAYES, Retired Librarian: Gephardt is a good, solid candidate. He has good positions, possibly is more "electable" than Dean. But we were at the dinner last night, the Jefferson/Jackson Dinner. And Howard Dean has just a rousing stump speech. You just can't help but stand up and say, "yes, yes, yes. Throw them out!" So we're still thinking about it. ( Cheers and applause )

MARGARET WARNER: Dean's rivals are trying to counteract his surge by suggesting he lacks the experience to be president, and the temperament as well.

JOHN KERRY: We need to offer answers, not just anger. We need to offer solutions, not just slogans.

MARGARET WARNER: Dean rejects his rivals' criticism.

HOWARD DEAN: It's not anger. It's hope. That's why they don't get it either. People in some ways really want a doctor. It's really odd. I've thought about this a lot. What you do as a doctor, people basically heal themselves most of the time. The doctor's job for the most part is to set forth a clear plan and recruit the positive part of the patient to execute that plan. And to give confidence to that person that we can succeed again. That's all I'm doing is giving people confidence. And they're not going to have it from guys who have spent their whole lives in Washington.

MARGARET WARNER: And what about his rivals' charge that he's arrogant?

HOWARD DEAN: It depends on what you mean by arrogance. I do have strong opinions. When people get in my face, I tend to get back in theirs. And you know, maybe there's a little arrogance there. But maybe the American people want a president who gets in somebody's face when they get in theirs. Certainly, Democrats like my getting in the president's face.

MARGARET WARNER: Gephardt sidesteps a question about dean's temperament, but he says it is an important criterion in a president.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: Of course it is. You've got to be a human being who can work well with other human beings, who can work well with Congress, who can work well with other leaders in the world and be open and respectful of other people, always.

MARGARET WARNER: Voters tell us this: They tell us they really like your experience, but they also respond to the anger and passion in Howard Dean.

REP. RICHARD GEPHARDT: The key to this nomination is I think is showing both frustration and even anger with what George Bush has failed to do to lead this country. But you've also got to give bright, optimistic, bold proposals, and you've got to be likeable at the end of all of it.

MARGARET WARNER: The competition is sure to intensify. Dean and Kerry opted out of public financing last week, so they're free to spend as much as they want here. Both launched new Iowa ads this week. Dean's attacks Gephardt by name.

DEAN CAMPAIGN AD ANNOUNCER: October 2002: Dick Gephardt agrees to co-author the Iraq war resolution, giving George Bush the authority to go to war.

MARGARET WARNER: Gephardt knows he'll be outspent. And with 20 percent of the voters undecided, and no one quite sure who will turn out, the next two months should be a wild ride.

FINALLY CONSPIRACY THEORIES

JIM LEHRER: This Saturday will mark 40 years since President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas. We look at why so many Americans now, and through the years, do not believe the official word that he was killed by Lee Harvey Oswald, one man acting alone.

With us now are: NewsHour regular and presidential historian Michael Beschloss; Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania; Robert Thompson, director of the Newhouse School, a public communications center for the study of popular television at Syracuse University; Henry Graff, emeritus professor of history at Columbia University-- he was also a member of the Kennedy assassination records review board appointed by President Clinton; and Frank Newport, editor in chief of the Gallup Poll.

Mr. Newport, you just completed a new poll on what Americans believe about the Kennedy assassination. What did you find?

FRANK NEWPORT: The same thing we've been finding now, Jim, for about 30 years. The American public thinks it was a conspiracy. Three quarters of Americans in poll after poll, year after year continue to tell us that they do not believe that one man, Lee Harvey Oswald did it alone, he was part of a conspiracy.

JIM LEHRER: Okay. What kind of conspiracy do they believe it was?

FRANK NEWPORT: Well, that's what's tricky. We keep looking at the data. There have been some open-ended questions in the past where people have asked, "well, who was it?" And we get a lot of "don't-knows. So this year we actually gave people a list of the usual suspects and we included the Cubans and the Soviet Union and the CIA and Lyndon Johnson, because that theory has come up more recently and some others. The two that come up at the top of the list are the CIA and the Cubans. But just about a third or a little more than a third of Americans choose either of those and it's even lower percentages of those who think it was a conspiracy says it was any of the other. So we don't know. They don't think Lee Harvey Oswald did it alone, but we're not sure that the average American, and I think your experts probably will tell you the same thing, nobody knows who it was. They just don't think it was Oswald alone.

JIM LEHRER: Now you say it's held pretty steady during the years. But right at the beginning, right after, in 1963, it was different, was it not?

FRANK NEWPORT: It was different but still suspicious. Gallup went into the field right in November, 1963. Dr. George Gallup was there, he asked this same question that we've tracked over the years and it was 52 percent who believed it was a conspiracy then. So not as high as it was now, but at least in our Gallup tracking in the month and the years right after that, Americans were already suspicious. Then after I think the Jim Garrison report and some other things came out, it zoomed up and has stayed high, as I mentioned, year after year, decade after decade since that point.

JIM LEHRER: Now, in 1976, it was 81 percent. Does that tie in to any particular event in 1976?

FRANK NEWPORT: Not that I'm aware of. I think that just happened to be another year where Gallup asked the question. This isn't like presidential... we don't ask it every year. I think we just came back into the field and asked it and lo and behold discovered that it had gotten high at that point and stayed that time every time we decided to ask it since, it remains at that height.

JIM LEHRER: Okay, Robert Thompson, you've tracked this on a different point. What's your explanation as to why, so many two thirds of the American people consistently through the years believe it's a conspiracy?

ROBERT THOMPSON: Well, I think first of all, it's this great story and you've got one suspect, Lee Harvey Oswald and he disappears, he's killed, he's eliminated, so this enormous shadow of doubt is cast over the entire story with no real evidence to take it away. And to some extent, it's become the one last great American mystery. I mean in so many ways, the mysteries we used to talk about keep going away by technology. We found the "Titanic," they used raid or to determine there's no monster in Loch Ness. This is one of those things that can continue to sort of be the stories around the cultural campfire. And also, our literature, our movies, have taught the new generation of people who don't know anything, have no memories of this, Oliver Stone's movie "JFK," Don DeLillo's book "Libra." Most kids mow learn about the JFK assassination not through documentaries about the historic period, but through documentaries, the unsolved mystery and through movies and literature about conspiracy theories.

JIM LEHRER: Kathleen Hall Jamieson, do you agree? Or what would you add to the causes?

KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: I would add that there needs I think for humans to have a sense of proportion between cause and effect. Here's a world-shattering event, and it doesn't seem to make sense to people that this single insignificant individual could create that much of havoc in the world community. I think if you put that together and then say, "and there are some unanswered questions," as there almost always are when there's human tragedy, the unanswered questions feed the need to find a sense of proportion. And the proportion we look for is in the expected places. What were the big world forces operating then? Well it must have been the anti-Castro Cubans, or it must have been the CIA, or it must have been the mafia. Remember, this is a time of "let them come to Berlin." This is a time of bear any burden, pay any price. The world scale in which Kennedy was acting was very large, and that this single insignificant person could create this kind of disruption in the world order just doesn't seem to make sense. That feeds all these alternate explanations.

JIM LEHRER: And that also, with what Mr. Newport said, that there's no one conspiracy theory -- it's all divided up. It's not so much that they believe a certain thing; they just do not believe he could have done it alone, and that's what you're saying, too, right?

KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: Yes.

JIM LEHRER: Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Mr. Graff, you also, in addition to being a professor, et cetera, you also have lifted some papers -- the Kennedy Assassination papers. What do you make of this, based on what you know about it, why do you think people still believe it's a conspiracy?

HENRY GRAFF: I think that people have looked at the history as it's unfolded since the Kennedy assassination, and they saw those other assassinations, Martin Luther King, Bobby Kennedy, then came the awfulness of Watergate, then came the Vietnam War. Things have turned bad for America. And people now look back on the Kennedy years as somehow a golden age. The most beautiful head in the world was blown open, a head that was destined to be on coins and on postage stamps, and it was gone, it became the lost Camelot. And we look back on that period with great longing. I must also say that the whole business of not trusting the United States government lies at the root of some of the concern that we have not been told the truth. I served, as you said, on the Kennedy assassination records review board. I was appointed with four others by President Clinton. And that board was created by the first President Bush at the behest of Congress. He signed the bill shortly before he left office, calling upon this body to collect all of the evidence. It was a response to the Oliver Stone movie, which, it was said, had persuaded 85 percent of the American people that they had not been told the truth and that, indeed, Kennedy was assassinated as a result of a conspiracy inside the government. We, our board, put together four million documents. They are now in the National Archives. And I must say conspirators don't leave a paper trail. We know, I think with certainty, that I believe I believe there was a lone gun man, his name was Lee Harvey Oswald. There was no shot fired from the grassy knoll. We do not know who might have put Oswald up to this act, but we are certain that, if there is a conspiracy, we are not going to be able to find out what it was. And we will continue to worry about what happened, just as there is new material every year on the Lincoln assassination, on the Garfield assassination, on the assassination that produced the First World War, the assassination of the Austrian couple at Sarajevo.

JIM LEHRER: Do you agree, Michael, this is a mystery that will never be solved, this will go on and on as Mr. Graff says?

MICHAEL BESCHLOSS: I think it will. And you know, the other thing I think my colleagues have done a very good job of explaining a lot of the reasons. But I think part of it is who Oswald was. This wasn't just some guy who was connected to Kennedy's assassination by physical evidence. Pretty quickly, even as early as November 22, that day, this was a guy... you know, the first thing that Americans fund out about him, who was he? He was someone who had defected to the Soviet Union, had come back to United States. That doesn't happen very often, it sure didn't in 1963, had been campaigning for Fidel Castro's Cubans -- Fair play for Cuba Committee, so even Americans who were pretty trusting in 1963 by Frank Newport's poll, 52 percent of them felt that there was a conspiracy. One who agreed was Lyndon Johnson privately. He saw this evidence, Johnson was sort of conspiracy minded in nature, he always said the shortest distance for him between two points was always a tunnel. This is the way he thought. He felt that that meant that there was a conspiracy, he felt that that was a worry because the Americans would demand, if they thought the Russians or Cubans were behind this, that he go to war against those countries, there could be 100 million people killed. So when he appointed the Warren Commission to investigate this thing, he appointed it, but quietly told the members, "I sure hope you're going to come up with a verdict essentially of a lone gunman, because if you don't, it's going to be terrible for this country." And they did. You know, Frank Newport was actually...

JIM LEHRER: Do you think they did because Lyndon Johnson told them to?

MICHAEL BESCHLOSS: I think that there was certainly a feeling that it was a patriotic thing to close this and say that there was a lone gunman, not to open the possibility that Americans might want a war against Russian and Cuba. The other thing is this: That investigation was flawed. You know, you were asking Frank Newport why in, 1976 it spiked up to 81 percent, people thinking there was a conspiracy. That was just after most Americans discovered that John Kennedy's people had tried to kill Fidel Castro and that fact had not been told to the Warren Commission. Therefore, you figure it was a flawed investigation and that shoots arrows in the direction of a conspiracy, which I agree with Henry Graff, there's not the solid evidence to prove.

JIM LEHRER: Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Mr. Graff mentioned JFK, the movie by Oliver Stone, and a lot of people have given him credit -- that movie credit for keeping this conspiracy theory alive, particularly among people who weren't around in 1963. Do you buy that?

KATHLEEN HALL JAMIESON: There's something very powerful about the visual dramatic image incarnated in a coherent narrative that is a film. And so I think, yes, it helps create a sense of reality that you don't really have when you read the books and the documents that are the discrediting documents, the documents that discredit those theories. But I think we also have to give some credit to the history channel with the series "The Men Who Killed Kennedy." We are certainly played out in dramatic form a lot of these hypotheticals very, very recently.

JIM LEHRER: And Michael, I mean the Lyndon Johnson people have really been outraged by that because one of their segments makes this... follows up on the Oliver Stone point that Lyndon Johnson was involved.

MICHAEL BESCHLOSS: That's right. And you know, Stone's film came out in 1991. He argument that it was CIA maybe in conjunction with Lyndon Johnson probably one of the least plausible explanations of who might have killed John Kennedy, yet there was an ABC poll this week that found that four out of ten Americans have seen that Oliver Stone film. That's going to have a much greater impact than a book written by an historian who follows a little bit more orthodox laws of evidence.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Newport, does your organization plan to continue to do these polls every ten years or so?

FRANK NEWPORT: Oh, indeed we will. We did in '83, '93 and we'll do it again. One thing is...

JIM LEHRER: Why? Why will you continue to do it? Why is it important?

FRANK NEWPORT: Well, its like why do you climb Mt. Everest for George Mallory because it's there, because this is a fascinating public opinion topic that shows like yours are devoting ten minutes to. That's why we poll, because we try to find out what's interesting to the public. And Kennedy, I have to say we just asked who's the greatest president of all time and I think Michael will blanche at this, Kennedy 17 percent tied with Abraham Lincoln in the eyes of the public. So I'll say he'll blanche because I don't think historians agree that JFK was the greatest president in the United States history. The public is fascinated with John can he be Kennedy.

MICHAEL BESCHLOSS: And your poll who is found roughly the same result, Kennedy at the top for the last 20 years or so.

FRANK NEWPORT: That's right. And by the way, Kennedy had the highest average job approval rating while he was actually in office of any president in Gallup history, so it's not all retrospective. People loved the guy while he was in office, they love him now.

JIM LEHRER: Robert Thompson, do you think this is an important issue that will remain important as it is today?

ROBERT THOMPSON: Well, I think it will, both in history and in fiction. I think the ambiguity of this story has become the muse for a whole new type of programming. This is the inspiration for shows like the "X-Files"." This is the ultimate X-File.

JIM LEHRER: But, Mr. Graff, from your point of view, the file is closed, the issue is dead, right?

HENRY GRAFF: I think that we are at the high point of interest in the Kennedy assassination right now. I think at the 50th anniversary, many of the people who were contemporaries will be gone, and most 40th anniversary memorials or celebrations are the high point. And so I disagree with our friend from the public opinion poll. We'll have some other things. History has a way of swallowing up events. I remember teaching the Lincoln assassination at Columbia just about the time of the Kennedy assassination, and I was aware that that, too, finally had taken its place in the dusty realm of documents and is less interesting, less important today than it was at the time.

JIM LEHRER: All right. I invite all five of you to return ten years from tonight, and we'll talk about, Mr. Newport, if you've done your poll, we'll talk about it again. Is that a deal?

FRANK NEWPORT: It's a deal.

JIM LEHRER: All right. Thank you all very much.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the major developments of the day. Two suicide truck bombs killed at least 27 people and wounded nearly 450 others in Istanbul, Turkey. Of the highest ranking British diplomat was in the is among the dead. In London, President Bush and British Prime Minister Blair condemned the attack. And thousands of demonstrators marched through central London, protesting the president's visit. Tonight's "Frontline" is a special three-hour broadcast that examines the life of Lee Harvey Oswald. Please check your local listing for the time. We'll see you online, and again here tomorrow evening with mark shields and David Brooks, among others. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.