The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

MR. LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight, prospects for a third party presidential candidate has seen by two pollsters, that story and others political as analyzed by Mark Shields and Paul Gigot; the new super gridlock in the United States Senate, Kwame Holman reports; more troubles in Northern Ireland, we have an update; and an exhibition of Chinese art, we have a Paul Solman viewing. It all follows our summary of the news this Friday. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: Hurricane Bertha hit the North and South Carolina coast today. Winds at its center reached 105 miles per hour. Strong winds and heavy rains have damaged homes, knocked out electricity, and emptied beaches. More than 250,000 residents and vacationers fled inland to escape the storm. Almost 14,500 sought safety at Red Cross shelters overnight. Hurricane warnings remain in effect from Savannah, Georgia, up to the Virginia state line. We got an update a few minutes ago from Jerry Jarrell, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Jarrell, what is the status of the storm right now?

JERRY JARRELL, Deputy Director, Hurricane Center: (Miami] Well, it's now over land, and this is near Jacksonville, North Carolina, and it's now inland. So it will begin to weaken. You see these bright orange areas are strong bands, and those still have to cross the outer banks of North Carolina, so they've got some real misery yet to come as those strong winds come in there. Now, it'll start to weaken as it moves on up the coast, and we think it's going to go right up the coast, all the way into New England. It will be much weakened, but they'll be pounded too with a heavy surf and some storm surge, probably some coastal roads will be flooded there, and a lot of rain, a lot of rain in the mountains. SO that may be the big problem for the next day or so.

MR. LEHRER: What, what are the--what's the wind velocity now?

MR. JARRELL: We think it's still about 105 miles per hour, and it'll probably remain a hurricane for the next 12 hours or so.

MR. LEHRER: And then it's going to move up the coast, you said. At what kind of speed, do you think?

MR. JARRELL: Well, we're thinking fifteen to twenty miles per hour, but the wind speeds will be stronger than that. We're thinking it'll hit about 75 miles per hour in 12 hours and then diminishes, it goes on up, so we're probably coming out thirty or forty miles per hour a couple of days from now in New England.

MR. LEHRER: And then it'll go back into the city.

MR. JARRELL: Right.

MR. LEHRER: And what should people expect inland who are not right on the coast, what kind of storm are they going to get?

MR. JARRELL: Watch out for the heavy rains and flash floods. That's, that's the big story and, particularly on the Eastern slopes of the mountains.

MR. LEHRER: Is it--last night you told us it was, was as large as the state of Georgia. Is it still that huge?

MR. JARRELL: Yes, it's a huge storm, and that's one of the problems. That's one of the reasons it doesn't die MNEIL fast. If it were small, then the whole storm could be over land, but it isn't. It's huge and much of it's still out over the water.

MR. LEHRER: All right. Mr. Jarrell, thank you very much.

MR. JARRELL: Okay.

MR. LEHRER: In economic news today, the Labor Department reported wholesale prices were up 2/10 of a percent last month. A surge in food prices was the main cause. And the Commerce Department reported retail sales fell by .2 percent in June. A new congressional study out today said the savings & loan bailout will cost $480 billion, more than three times the original estimate. Hundreds of S&L's were taken over by the government in the 1980's. Today's report was from the General Accounting Office. Bob Dole announced today that he had resolved a Republican Party dispute about abortion. His campaign issued a statement which said a tolerance plank has been added at the end of the party platform. It says, "We recognize members of our party have deeply held and sometimes differing views on issues like abortion and capital punishment." But strict language against all abortions remains in the platform, itself. Platform Chairman Henry Hyde said he would report the tolerance plank. It still has to be endorsed and accepted by the Republican Convention in San Diego in August. The House of Representatives today voted to outlaw same-sex marriages. The vote was 342 to 67. The Defense of Marriage Act defines marriage as the legal union between one man and one woman. A state could still legalize same-sex marriages, but couples would remain ineligible for federal benefits. Sponsors of the legislation said a court case pending in Hawaii could eventually force other states to recognize gay marriages. Here's a sample of today's floor debate.

REP. BARNEY FRANK, [D] Massachusetts: I have asked member after member who was an advocate of this bill how does the fact two men live together in a loving relationship and commit themselves in Hawaii threaten your marriage in Florida or Georgia or wherever, and the answer is always well, it doesn't threaten my marriage, and it doesn't threaten his marriage, it threatens the institution of marriage. That, of course, baffles me some. Marriages, institutions don't marry. They may merge, but they don't marry. People marry.

REP. HENRY HYDE, [R] Illinois: First of all, as to defining marriage in the federal code, who else should define it, except this Congress, the federal legislature, not the courts. The courts are usurping legislative functions, and it is appropriate that Congress define marriage. Now, you may not like the definition the majority of us want, but most people don't approve of homosexual conduct, they don't approve of incest; they don't approve of polygamy, and they express their disapprobation through the law. And it's that simple.

MR. LEHRER: The Senate has yet to act on this issue. President Clinton has said he will sign the bill if it does come to him in an acceptable form. In Northern Ireland today, more than 100,000 Protestants marched through Catholic neighborhoods, protected by the police and British soldiers. They were members of the Orange Order, celebrating 17th century victories over the country's Catholic minority. Police permitted the parade after nearly a week of rioting. We'll have more on this story later in the program. In Britain today, Princess Charles--Prince Charles and Princess Diana announced a divorce settlement. Their 15 years of marriage will officially end on August 28th. Princess Diana will no longer be called Her Royal Highness, only Diana, Princess of Wales. She will continue to live in Kensington Palace in London, but none of the other financial arrangements were announced. And that's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to third parties, Shields & Gigot, Senate gridlock, a Northern Ireland update, and some Chinese art. MNEIL FOCUS - CROWDING THE FIELD

MR. LEHRER: We go first to presidential politics and to Charlayne Hunter-Gault.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: The presidential campaign trail got a little more crowded this week. On Wednesday, Dick Lamm, the former Democratic governor of Colorado, announced he was running for the nomination of the Reform Party.

DICK LAMM, Reform Party Presidential Candidate: [Wednesday - Denver] I begin this campaign with only one promise, and that's to present the truth, and in some cases, the hard truth, and to trust you to make the right choices. What America needs, in short, is a "no B.S." agenda. The Reform Party is the one and only place I believe that you will get that. Now, political pundits have speculated and will continue to speculate about whether my candidacy will help or hurt a political candidate or party. I am less concerned about that than whether it will help our nation.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: But Ross Perot, who has bankrolled the Reform Party, soon made it clear that he wanted the top spot.

LARRY KING: ["Larry King Live" - Wednesday Night] If you get the job, will you run? Obviously, you will run.

ROSS PEROT: Certainly I will. And I think that's obvious to anybody when you look at this is all I have done for the last five years, and the only reason I'd do it is because I love this country and I love the principles that it's founded on. I don't like to see those principles violated, and I particularly have a deep affection and love for the American people.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Lamm was undaunted. Yesterday in Minnesota, he vowed to continue his campaign despite Perot.

REPORTER: Did Ross Perot's announcement last night change your--

DICK LAMM: It didn't change my mind.

REPORTER: Not in any way?

DICK LAMM: No. I had to decide 10 days ago that I was going to run regardless, and so, umm, welcome into the race, and we'll just have to both try to present our stuff to the Reform Party.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Now, two pollsters on the impact third party candidates will have on the 1996 elections; Democrat Peter Hart and Republican Linda Divall, a consultant to the Dole campaign. Thank you both for joining us. Starting with you, Linda, what are the polls telling us about how the public is feeling about a third party right now?

LINDA DIVALL, Republican Pollster: Well, there is support for a third party candidacy, and there has been since, basically since 1984, but this environment of anti-incumbency and anti-political environment, in particular, we find that there is support for a third party, but not necessarily, I think, for Ross Perot in the manner that there was in 1992. And I say that because voters are very familiar with

MR. Perot. His negative is much higher than it was before. Umm, on the other hand, both Peter and I show that he's still getting about 12 to 13 percent of the vote. What was interesting is when you look at the Perot vote in 1992, he only gets about half of those who voted for him last time around. He has some new voters coming into the process, younger men and independents. And the question is are they going to support a Reform Party where they're not really certain what his agenda is? Because what appears to be happening here is that Mr. Perot has reacted totally on the basis of Mr. Lamm's entry into this race, and it appears to be very egocentric, as opposed to issue-oriented or crusade-oriented. MNEIL

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Peter Hart, what do your polls show? And are they reacting to this thing yet, the Perot-Lamm thing?

PETER HART, Democratic Pollster: Well, I think this is much too early to look at the Lamm entry or whatever, but what they show is exactly what Linda sees, and that is they look and they say, hey, Ross Perot is gadfly. In 1992, he was a shrewd businessman, he was somebody, two to one positive back in 1992, today it's two to one negative feelings towards, towards Ross Perot. So he's a very different candidate today than he was in 1992. And I agree with Linda. It is a new constituency. It's coming out of the West more. Yes, it's coming out of younger people, and almost two out of all five of all of Perot's voters are independent, so there it is, new and different.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Well, Gordon Black, who advises Perot and