The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

MR. LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight, the Colin Powell decision not to run for President, the personal side, Margaret Warner interviews Bob Woodward, the politics of it with Mark Shields, Paul Gigot, Cynthia Tucker, and Bill Kristol, and some historical perspective, Elizabeth Farnsworth talks to NewsHour regulars Goodwin, Johnson, and Beschloss, plus Roger Wilkins and Stephen Ambrose. It all follows our summary of the news this Wednesday. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: Colin Powell will not run for President in 1996. The retired army general made the announcement today at a hotel in Alexandria, Virginia. He said he was honored that so many people wanted him to run.

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: Ultimately, however, I had to look deep into my own soul, standing aside from the expectations and enthusiasms of others, because I believe I have a bond of trust with the American people, and to offer myself as a candidate for President requires a commitment and a passion to run the race and to succeed in the quest, the kind of passion and the kind of commitment that I felt every day of my 35 years as a soldier, a passion and commitment that despite my every effort, I do not yet have for political life, because such a life requires a calling that I do not yet hear. And for me to pretend otherwise would not be honest to myself, it would not be honest to the American people, and I would break that bond of trust. And, therefore, I cannot go forward. I will not be a candidate for President or for any other elective office in 1996.

MR. LEHRER: Powell said he was a Republican and he planned to be active in the party in the coming election year. House Speaker Gingrich said Powell's withdrawal increased the chances he, Gingrich, might still enter the race. Gingrich said he'd be watching the results of Presidency Three, a Florida straw poll, later this month.

REP. NEWT GINGRICH, Speaker of the House: In the first place, I'm not going to think about it till we finish getting a balanced budget through here. And at that point, I want to sit down and look at where the situation is, how it evolves, what happens in Florida with the Presidency Three and what the mood is like in late November.

MR. LEHRER: We'll be devoting the rest of the program after this News Summary to the Powell decision. That was the second piece of good news for Bob Dole today. The Republican front-runner was endorsed by the governor of New Hampshire, the first primary state. Gov. Steve Merrill will now serve as general chairman of the national Dole campaign. The Senate voted today to delay consideration of the late-term abortion bill. It would outlaw a certain type of abortion. Today's vote sends the bill to the Senate Judiciary Committee for debate. The House passed the bill last week. Democrats are claiming victory in yesterday's off-year elections around the country but Republicans say no, it was a very good year for their candidates. Kwame Holman has our report.

KWAME HOLMAN: Democrats said they managed to hold their own in yesterday's legislative races after virtually being swept by Republicans in congressional elections a year ago.

SPOKESMAN: Kentucky has said no to Newt Gingrich and Bob Dole.

MR. HOLMAN: In Kentucky, Democrat Paul Patton extended his party's 24-year hold on the governorship with a narrow victory over Republican Larry Forgy. In Virginia, Democrats staved off a Republican takeover of the entire state government hoped for by popular first-term Governor George Allen. Instead, Democrats maintained a slim majority in the House of Delegates and had to settle for a 20-20 tie with Republicans in the Virginia Senate. Tie votes in the Senate will be broken by the Democratic lieutenant governor. Democrats scored again in Maine. They reestablished a one-vote majority in the State House lost earlier this year when Democrats switched parties. Also in Maine, voters narrowly defeated a referendum that would have erased legal protections for gays. That vote too was considered a victory for Democrats. But Republicans got a major win in Mississippi, where first-term Governor Kirk Fordice cruised comfortably to reelection. Back in Washington, congressional leaders had predictable reactions to the results.

SEN. THOMAS DASCHLE, Minority Leader: Last night, the American people confirmed what we've said all along, that they will reject the extremism demonstrated in the number of pieces of the right- wing agenda that the Republicans have been pushing through Congress.

REP. NEWT GINGRICH, Speaker of the House: I think we're doing fine. I think, no, if we had won Kentucky, I'd be in here smiling and saying to you, we have absolute proof it reaffirmed our agenda. I think right now we have a tie match. They won Kentucky; we won Mississippi.

MR. HOLMAN: Gingrich says that tie will be broken by the result of the Louisiana governor's race next week.

MR. LEHRER: Israeli police today arrested three more suspects in the assassinationof Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. And security forces released the findings of an internal investigation into the attack. We have more from Gaby Rado of Independent Television News.

GABY RADO, ITN: The Israeli security services today knew they were being put under the microscope. Their plain clothes and uniformed agents were much in evidence outside the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Inside, cabinet members set up an inquiry into the lapses which led to Yitzhak Rabin's assassination. It's now admitted the signs were there to be read.

SHIMON SHITREET, Religious Affairs Minister, Israel: We were blind to certain elements of deterioration of Israeli society, and by using what is called by the American law professors fighting words, the use of fighting words has become the order of the day in parliament, in the street, in the newspapers, in advertisements, in television, and that went on without anyone saying, look here, we have to stop it.

MR. RADO: It wasn't just excessive tolerance which led to tragedy last Saturday night. Today's initial report points up basic failures inside Israel's internal security service, Shin Bet, such as the lack of proper lists of known extremists and letting unauthorized people get near the departing prime minister. It was further revealed today that the car which took the wounded prime minister to the hospital was held up several times at checkpoints, showing more errors in police coordination. One of those arrested this evening, the leader of a fringe hard-right group called Aal, is thought to have known about the assassination in advance. Avishi Raviv has been charged with conspiracy in failing to prevent a crime. Aal members were filmed by Israeli Television well before the assassination swearing an oath to fight to the last breath against what they called a malicious, evil-doing government. The home of the confessed killer, Yigal Amir, was today searched by security forces. The investigation taking place inside their own organization may still claim more of their senior officers' careers.

MR. LEHRER: The senior security official charged with protecting Rabin resigned after the release of today's report. Three lower- ranking officials were suspended. The United States and Russia announced joint military plans for post-war Bosnia today. Russian Defense Minister Pavel Grachev and U.S. Defense Secretary Perry made the announcement at NATO headquarters in Brussels. Russian troops will participate in a UN peacekeeping force under a Russian commander. That commander will be a deputy to the American general, who will direct the NATO forces in the mission. The Bosnian Serbs today released the American journalist they had accused of spying. David Rohde of the "Christian Science Monitor" was arrested 10 days ago. He broke the story of Serb atrocities in Bosnia. Rohde's freedom was negotiated by UN peacekeepers. And that's it for the News Summary this Wednesday. Now it's on to the Powell decision, persona, the politics, and the history. FOCUS - BOWING OUT

MR. LEHRER: We begin with extended excerpts from Colin Powell's news conference in Alexandria, Virginia, this afternoon.

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: I know that this is the right decision for me. It was not reached easily or without a great deal of personal anguish. For me and my family, saying no was even harder than saying yes. I will remain in private life and seek other ways to serve. I have a deep love for this country that has no bounds. I will find other ways to contribute to the important work needed to keep us moving forward. I know my decision will disappoint many who have supported me. I thank them, once again, from the bottom of my heart, and I ask for their understanding. I also know that my actions in taking the time to reach this decision has created an enormous level of expectation and anticipation. But I needed the time to give this the most careful study. I will continue to speak out forcefully in the future on the issues of the day, as I have been doing in recent weeks. I will do so as a member of the Republican Party and try to assist the party in broadening its appeal. I believe I can help the party of Lincoln move once again closer to the spirit of Lincoln. I will give my talent and energy to charitable and educational activities. I will also try to find ways for me to help heal the racial divides that still exist within our society. Finally, let me say how honored I am that so many of you thought me worthy of your support. It says more about America than it says about me. In one generation, we have moved from denying a black man service at a lunch counter to elevating one to the highest military office in the nation and to being a serious contender for the Presidency. This is a magnificent country, and I am proud to be one of its sons. Thank you very much. Mr. Donaldson.

SAM DONALDSON: General, you say it's a calling you did not feel, but some people are going to say that you backed away from the fight you should have made because as a general used to having your way, and not used to be criticized, and in the hurly-burly, the down-and-dirty of American politics, you just didn't have the stomach for it.

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: I understand the down and dirty of American politics, and that's the way it should be. I mean, you should run this test of fire if you wish this highest office. But at this point in my life, and knowing what I know about myself, my talent, my energies, and what I'm capable of doing, this was not the right thing for me to do at this time.

REPORTER: Could the moment ever come again?

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: Well, you know, the future is the future. At the moment, it's the right thing for me at this time. Yes.

REPORTER: Yes, General. You mentioned you're not going to be seeking any office. Have you ruled out the prospect of being on the vice-presidential--being a vice-presidential candidate? Have you discussed that with Sen. Dole or any other candidate?

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: I have ruled it out.

REPORTER: What do you think of the conservative opposition that surfaced publicly last week?

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: Well, I expected opposition, conservative opposition to some of the views I took, and it has come, but I have also received some support from conservatives that essentially said the party ought to be broad enough to, to accept and listen to many views. The particular meeting last week that you're talking about, the views expressed concerning my views, I expected to get. We all should be concerned, however, about the nature of that meeting and the nature of the attack. When you move away from just disagreeing with somebody's views and you move into ad hominem attacks to destroy character, you're adding to the incivility that exists in our political life right now, which we ought to do something about.

REPORTER: Gen. Powell.

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: Yes, sir.

REPORTER: You said that you would enter in the future, or you will continue speaking out as a Republican. Why as a Republican? Why--what is in that philosophy that appeals to you that doesn't appeal to you on the Democratic side?

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: I'm very impressed by what the Republican Party is trying to do right now, trying to put the nation on a better fiscal balance, trying to bring government under control and make government smaller, trying to put more money back into the pocket of individual taxpayers, and I believe that they have ideas and energy at this time that I can align with. There are some aspects of the agenda of the Republican Party that I disagree with, and I have said so, and I will continue to speak out. And I hope the party can broaden its appeal to appeal to the greatest number of Americans possible. But that's where I think my interests lie and my politics lie. Yes, Gene.

REPORTER: Did the criticism of you and your positions and your character play any role in your decision not to run?

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: No. I can't get excited when somebody who never served in the military jumps up and attacks me for my 35 years of service. And so that didn't bother me particularly. And, frankly, I was pleased that a number of right conservatives, as they may be called, were somewhat supportive, not agreeing with me, but supportive of my entering into the debate and into the dialogue. So that rolled off my back. Yes.

REPORTER: You said many times that you were fearful of the Republicans' Contract With America as being too harsh. How do you see the Republican Party as it's now shaping up, particularly now they're cutting--they're going to change welfare, they're going to change Medicare, they're going to change Medicaid, what are your thoughts on those viewpoints?

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: The harshness I spoke of and which I will continue to speak of is that we have to be absolutely sure that we have on our mind at all times that with these changes we are fundamentally changing the social safety net people have relied upon. And at the end of this chain, there are children who may be in need and at risk. Yes, sir.

REPORTER: You talked about family sacrifices. Was your personal security a factor, and could we ask your wife that question too?

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: I, I have no concerns about my personal security. I travel widely around the country, usually by myself, and I--I had no particular concerns.

MRS. POWELL: I think everybody has known that I have had a concern but I want you to know that it's certainly played no part in his decision.

REPORTER: How do you feel now about the decision?

MRS. POWELL: It was one that we reached together as a team, as we have for 33 years. And I am very supportive. Thank you.

REPORTER: The assassination this last weekend, and you came toward a decision, did that weigh in?

MRS. POWELL: No. It was a deep tragedy, one that is--has great effect on the world at large, and it's certainly something that we ought to consider about the feeling that exists in the world against leaders and people who are trying to accomplish something in the face of peace.

REPORTER: It certainly must have spotlighted the danger for public figures such as your husband.

MRS. POWELL: Yes, indeed, it did, but it just simply points up that that always exists but did not play a part in the decision.

REPORTER: Many Americans who respect you greatly will reach the conclusion from this that you have to be out of your mind to seek the presidency.

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: No. No. Let me say first of all, this gives me a chance to say I applaud and congratulate those candidates who are out there now fighting for the right to be President of the United States. And we should be proud that such people do come forward and always have come forward. It is a needed process. You have to have that kind of fighting and debate. It's called democracy. I would say to the American people that they should start to draw the line, however, on some of the incivility that we see in our national debate and in our political debate. We have to start remembering that I'm very fond of saying we are all a family, we have to work together. Yes, sir.

REPORTER: To the question of the down-and-dirtiness of politics, in the last week we saw published reports about your wife receiving medication for depression. Was that beyond the pale? What's that say about--

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: No. My wife has depression. She's had it for many, many years, and we have told many people about it. It is not a family secret. It is very easily controlled with proper medication, just as my blood pressure is sometimes under control with proper medication.

REPORTER: Sir, when you said wanted the Republican Party to broaden its tent, I assume you're talking in a Lincoln way about minorities.

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: Yes.

REPORTER: Why do you think the Republican Party--

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: Well, they don't. I mean--because a very large percentage of blacks don't believe the Republican Party appeals to them, and they vote consistently Democratic. And I think it would be in the interest of minorities, and especially for African-Americans, to have other choices. And I think it would be an important thing for the Republican Party to broaden its appeal, and a number of leaders of the Republican Party have said the same thing, so that African-Americans have two sets of issues to look at, two sets of power bases to look at, and not just believe that the only choice for them is the Democratic Party.

REPORTER: Aside from the security considerations, did you rule out in your own mind the role of First Lady of the United States, and what were your thoughts about becoming First Lady, about the role for yourself?

MRS. POWELL: Well, it certainly is a flattering thing to think of, that people would think you were capable of doing such a thing, however, it is not something that is in my sight at this time. I'm happy with my activities as they are and plan to continue them.

GEN. COLIN POWELL, [RET.]: Thank you all very, very much.

MR. LEHRER: Now, more on the personal dimension of Colin Powell's most public decision. Bob Woodward of the "Washington Post" is with Margaret Warner.

MS. WARNER: Bob Woodward has been reporting on Colin Powell for many years. This past September Woodward wrote a cover story in the "Washington Post Sunday Magazine" describing what he called the Powell predicament over whether to run for President. Bob, if saying no was harder than saying yes, as Colin Powell just said, what is your sense of why he said no?

BOB WOODWARD, Washington Post: Well, I think we've just witnessed somebody in American politics really being true to himself and to his family. And that is unusual, as you know, and I think he asked the right questions. I think he was very serious in his examination of this. I think he took into consideration very much what his wife was saying about it, which was not about really security but about the quality of their life. And 35 years in the army is a long time. Powell has said publicly, and I know he's told many, many people, including myself, that after he left the army, it was Alma's turn to do something that she wanted, and obviously, this is something she chose and wished that he would not do.

MS. WARNER: He was very forthcoming in talking about her depression, saying they hadn't taken offense at any of those stories, but do you think her illness was any kind of factor in his decision?

MR. WOODWARD: I, I think specifically no, and I think it's a tribute to them, again, that they would be so open about it. Certainly going through a presidential campaign would be stressful for any--as we know, anyone who has depression problems, stress is not good. I take them at their word, that this really was not a factor in all of it.

MS. WARNER: The key thing, of course, what he said was that he just didn't have the same passion and commitment for politics as he did for being a soldier. Why for this man isn't the chance of political leadership as compelling or attractive as military leadership?

MR. WOODWARD: Well, if you look at his autobiography, My American Journey, his book really explains how he got into the army, how it really saved him. It gave order to his existence, and as he has said, he had this passion. He loved the army. He loved leading. He loved the order of it, of knowing that there's a boss and a subordinate. Politics is chaos. Politics is very much the unpredictable. I also think a factor in this was that if he chose to run and were nominated and elected and then maybe reelected as President, he would be making a nine-year decision, and he wasn't ready to do that.

MS. WARNER: His friends, I gather from your piece, also almost to a man and woman urged him not to run. Why?

MR. WOODWARD: Well, they saw a person who has a private life, who likes to laugh, who--the Powell as a social animal is part of the best Powell, and they like this, and they knew the intensity of politics, and felt it wouldn't be a good thing for him personally. I can't imagine anyone who knows somebody saying, hey, look, you really have to run for President, it would be a good thing for you. I think it's definitely the most difficult thing anyone could do in this country. I'm writing a book on the '96 presidential race, and I think it honestly can be said when you run, you cease to exist. You have no free moment. You always have to be on. The ability to be honest and forthright is significantly reduced, it consumes your life.

MS. WARNER: He also said that the attacks by conservatives in the party had not been a factor, that it "rolled off" his back. Yet, he talked abut the incivility in politics and other answers. How much of a factor do you think that was?

MR. WOODWARD: Well, I don't think he liked it. I don't think anyone likes being criticized. I think he's not somebody who takes criticism particularly well, and I think we probably would have seen flashes of his anger had he chose to run, but I don't think it really was an overriding factor. I think there's a clear, indefinable reason why Powell decided not to run, and that is to run, you have to be able to answer the question, "I want to be President, because." You have to be able to fill that in in a very clear, direct way. Certainly, Ronald Reagan did it when he said, we're going to lower taxes, cut government, and increase defense. You have to find that message. Powell couldn't answer it to himself and to his friends, so in not answering it, it seemed to me that that probably meant he was not going to run. And when you listened to him on his book tour or in the extensive interviews that he did, he did not say this is where I think the country should go. And somebody running for President has to be able to do that.

MS. WARNER: And was the prospect of being the first African- American President of the United States, the very real prospect, did that weigh in his mind? Do you think he felt a sense of mission or obligation in that way?

MR. WOODWARD: I think he probably did. And if he could have answered some of the other fundamental questions, it would have been an added benefit in, in his eyes. I don't think--I mean, if you really pick apart his decision-making process, which will occur over the next several weeks, you will find this is a man who was asking absolutely the right questions. He went through the process, and as I said at the beginning, he was true to himself, and that is totally remarkable in American politics.

MS. WARNER: Well, Bob, thank you very much for being with us.

MR. WOODWARD: Thank you. FOCUS - POLITICAL IMPACT

MR. LEHRER: Now, the politics of Colin Powell's decision as seen by three of our regulars: syndicated columnist Mark Shields, "Wall Street Journal" columnist Paul Gigot, and Cynthia Tucker, editor of the editorial page of the "Atlanta Constitution," and a member of our company of regional commentators. They're joined tonight by Republican activist Bill Kristol, editor and publisher of the new political magazine, the "Standard." Mark, in pure political terms, has Colin Powell literally passed up the presidency? Did he stand that good a chance of being elected President?

MARK SHIELDS, Syndicated Columnist: [Miami] Oh, I think he had a splendid chance, I mean, a chance that comes to very few Americans, Jim. I mean, just look at Bill Clinton tonight. Bill Clinton had a 22-point turnaround. Last Friday's "Wall Street Journal"/NBC Poll showed Bill Clinton running fifteen points behind Colin Powell and seven points ahead of Bob Dole. Tonight, that's- -Bill Clinton is 22 points better off. He's got to be doing cartwheels in the White House. Colin Powell had an authentic, legitimate chance to be President of the United States.

MR. LEHRER: Do you agree, Paul?

PAUL GIGOT, Wall Street Journal: I think Mark is right that he has a chance, but I think he overestimates the degree of the chance. This was not going to be a cake walk. This was going to be a tough road in the Republican primaries, or as an independent. The poll numbers show his popularity before he gets into that rough and tumble which Colin Powell, to his credit, was honest about saying, it was going to face him and deserves to be faced if you're going to become President.

MR. LEHRER: Bill Kristol, does this mean that Bill--that Bob Dole is now going to be the Republican nominee?

WILLIAM KRISTOL, Weekly Standard: [Indianapolis] I don't think so. I think, in fact, there are 30 percent or so of Republican primary voters who wanted to be for Colin Powell, or at least wanted to consider him seriously. They're now up for grabs.

MR. LEHRER: So it, it would be--you agree with that, Paul?

MR. GIGOT: Yes, I do.

MR. LEHRER: It's not an automatic. Mark.

MR. GIGOT: It's not an automatic.

MR. LEHRER: Mark.

MR. SHIELDS: I think Bob Dole's a lot better off than he was last night. I mean, the race is shorter. There's a shorter window of opportunity. Everybody else against him is in single digits. They now have until the 12th of February. For two months, Colin Powell has exhausted all the oxygen in the political world, and so all those other saplings or those little trees haven't had a chance to grow. I mean, the Alexanders, the Buchanans, the Gramms, and all the rest of them, they've just been back in the truss ads in press coverage, Jim.

MR. LEHRER: Cynthia, do you see any saplings, other than a Dole sapling, growing now as a result of what happened today?

CYNTHIA TUCKER, Atlanta Constitution: [Atlanta] Well, if there were Republican primary voters who were waiting for Colin Powell to throw his hat into the race before they decided, I don't think those voters now go to Pat Buchanan or Phil Gramm. Maybe those voters now go to Lamar Alexander or Steve Forbes. So there are certainly more moderate, if I may call them that, without cursing them, the Republican primaries, if there are more moderate Republican--Republicans out there who are running, Alexander and Forbes come to mind, then they may benefit a bit from Colin Powell's decision not to run. But I don't see how those voters now go to Pat Buchanan or Phil Gramm. It seems to me the biggest beneficiary of this is still Bob Dole.

MR. LEHRER: You, you wouldn't dispute that would you, Bill Kristol?

MR. KRISTOL: Well, I'm not sure. I think the main effect of the Powell boomlet was to show how many Republicans really don't want to nominate Bob Dole for the presidency. They respect him; they admire him; they don't want him to be the presidential candidate in 1996, and I think there's a pretty big opportunity for Lamar Alexander, in particular, maybe for one of the other candidates, to run second to Bob Dole in Iowa, compete with him in New Hampshire, and try to get Dole one-on-one. And I think someone like Alexander could beat Dole one-on-one if he can clear the rest of the field in Iowa and New Hampshire.

MR. LEHRER: Mark, what did you--what did you make of, of Powell's announcement today, clean announcement, I am a Republican?

MR. SHIELDS: Well, I think it's a real lift to the Republican Party, Jim. I mean, if you really want to know why Americans were drawn to Colin Powell, all anybody ought to do is look at today's game films. I mean, this was a man who had a message both in his statement and in his press conference that was disarming, that was patriotic, that was candid, that was poised, that was funny. I mean, there isn't a presidential candidate in shoe leather who couldn't learn from what this man did and what he showed today.

MR. LEHRER: Do you agree, Paul?

MR. GIGOT: It was a spectacular performance. It was generous; it was big-hearted, but it was also tough-minded. He didn't say, well, Alma wouldn't let me do it. He didn't say like some others have said the campaign finance laws prevented me from doing it. He said, I didn't have it in my gut, the passion and the commitment. And that's the sort of personal responsibility--

MR. LEHRER: He didn't blame it on anybody or any other thing, did he?

MR. GIGOT: No. It was a marvelous performance.

MR. LEHRER: Yeah. Did he sound like a Republican to you, Paul?

MR. GIGOT: Well, I think he did. He said smaller government; he said return taxes to people's pockets; and he said--and this was I thought leapt right out at me--restore a sense of shame in the society, which is something that a lot of these other candidates have been trying to say and he hit right at it.

MR. LEHRER: Yeah. Cynthia, did he sound like a Republican to you?

MS. TUCKER: Well, he certainly sounded like a centrist. If the Republican Party is willing, in fact, to be a big tent party, yes, he did sound like a Republican. It did not surprise me that Colin Powell decided to go ahead and formally join the Republican Party. He has been identified with Republican Presidents. I think he said as he was retiring that he had not been particularly comfortable with the way that Bill Clinton made his decisions, so it did not surprise me at all that he decided to formallybecome a Republican. He certainly sounds like a centrist, and if the Republican Party is big enough to accommodate that, that's very good news indeed.

MR. LEHRER: Is the party big enough, Bill Kristol?

MR. KRISTOL: Sure, and I think Colin Powell's popularity among Republican primary voters, judging from the polls, proves that. I mean, the big debate two months ago when Powell was considering running was is he too moderate to even be competitive for the Republican presidential nomination, and the answer turned out to be no. I think primary voters, including conservative primary voters, are not as narrowly ideological as some have made them and that they are, they want someone they can respect, someone they can admire, someone who is more or less on board--certainly the Gingrich revolution, the Republican agenda in Congress--but the notion that Republican primary voters sit at home with a list of litmus tests looking at each candidate and then checking off in a box, you know, where he is on this issue or that, I think a Powell proto-candidacy may have destroyed that myth.

MR. LEHRER: What about--yes, Mark, go ahead.

MR. SHIELDS: Jim, he had precious little comfort for many of the initiatives being pushed by Republicans on Capitol Hill today. He talked about the terms of the safety net. He talked about us as a family, our responsibility to each other. I mean, he talked about the spirit of Abraham Lincoln. I mean, this was in Cynthia's term a large tent Republican. And it was not what has been coming consistently from the Republican legislative leadership on Capitol Hill. It was Jack Kemp's message.

MR. LEHRER: But not Newt Gingrich's?

MR. SHIELDS: Not Newt Gingrich's message at all.

MR. LEHRER: Is he right about that, Paul?

MR. GIGOT: I disagree with that completely.

MR. LEHRER: You do?

MR. GIGOT: I think it's Jack Kemp's message, but if you also listen to Newt Gingrich's speeches and you don't just listen to the sound bites, you know, the most partisan, I think that is a large part of the, the Gingrich message as well. I know Mark thinks that this is somehow a great offense, but that is exactly what Gingrich wants too. It's not just to dismantle the welfare state. It's, in fact, to try to replace it with something better.

MR. LEHRER: But when Colin Powell said today he wants to--one of the reasons he, he--one of the things he wants to do as a Republican is broaden its reach, is the leadership of the Republican Party going to allow that reach broadened?

MR. GIGOT: There are a lot of leaders in the Republican Party who would desperately like to do that, Jack Kemp first and foremost, but frankly when you talk to a Dick Armey or a Newt Gingrich, I mean, they would love to be able to expand the reach of the party to black Americans. Some of them have been frustrated by that, and partly it's the Republicans' fault for not trying and partly it's a residue of some of the Southern strategy that started back in the 60's to try to bring the Southern Republican--Southern conservatives into the party.

MR. LEHRER: Conservative Democrats--

MR. GIGOT: But I think the feeling now is that we have to--that Republicans have to move beyond that if they're going to maintain and expand and extend their majority.

MR. LEHRER: Cynthia, what did you make of Colin Powell's statement about that blacks need to have the alternative, make a choice between the Republicans and Democrats, and right now, they're only going to Democrats, and he wants to make sure that the Republican Party broadens enough to where it is attractive to blacks? Does that make sense to you?

MS. TUCKER: Oh, absolutely. I thought he was absolutely right, Jim, when he said that he wanted to help the Republican Party broaden its base and appeal more to African-American voters. I think that would be good for African-Americans, good for the Republican Party, and good for the nation. The problem is that Colin Powell had a much, much better chance of doing that as a candidate than he will now. I think it will be difficult for him to find a platform from which to speak, having never been elected to office. It's also true that the Republican Party has a lot of problems in appealing to African-American voters. It's not just the residue of their Southern strategy from the past, from 1964, when Barry Goldwater ran, and it's not just their very conservative platforms. It is also true that the Republican Party sends out signals that makes it seem hostile, antagonistic to people of color when they attack affirmative action, when they attack immigration, when they speak about English-only policies, when they talk about insisting that cocaine laws stay in place which punish crack users much more heavily than the users of powdered cocaine. Crack users happen to be more heavily black and brown, powdered cocaine users more heavily white. When the Republican Party insists on taking stands like that, African- American voters get the message that they are not welcome. And so if Colin Powell is going to work on that, he's got a lot of work in front of him.

MR. LEHRER: Do you agree with that, Bill, he's got a lot of work to do, Bill Kristol?

MR. KRISTOL: I don't think Colin Powell has to do a lot of work, and he doesn't--he can do what he wants to do. The fact is he was welcome in the Republican Party. We had polling data; we had the expression of Republican leaders welcoming Powell into the party, despite their disagreement with him on lots of issues. Several Senators and Congressmen, quite conservative ones, called me over the last week when I was getting, you know, criticized a little bit for being so welcoming to Powell by some of my conservative friends, to say, you know, keep it up, you're doing the right thing, we don't know quite whether we ultimately want Powell to be our nominee, but we certainly wanted to run us a Republican, we want him to be considered for the Republican nomination, and we understand that to be a majority party, we have to be a broader party, a coalition of conservatives and moderates, steering the country in a broadly conservative direction and bringing in new supporters and new members all the time.

MR. LEHRER: Mark, the practical question that Cynthia raised, how does Colin Powell now stay on the front page?

MR. SHIELDS: Oh, I think it's a problem for him. I mean, he will be able to make speeches. I think there's certainly a question of what the Republican Party does to take advantage of this, Jim, and I--I'm not sure other than the presidential candidates, who--they all want to be seen with him--they all want his endorsement, but I don't know what that platform is.

MR. LEHRER: What do you think, Paul?

MR. GIGOT: It's harder to get a forum, there's no question about it, when you're not a candidate, but I would suspect that there will be a lot of Republicans saying, why don't you begin the campaign for some of us and not just--not immediately the presidential nominees but some of our other candidates.

MR. LEHRER: He's going to be given a lot of opportunities to prove he's a Republican, right?

MR. GIGOT: I would think so, yeah.

MR. LEHRER: Right. All right. Cynthia, gentlemen, thank you all very much. FOCUS - HISTORICAL VIEWS

MR. LEHRER: Finally tonight, some historical context for what Colin Powell did today. Elizabeth Farnsworth is in charge.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Three of our regulars are with us: presidential scholar Doris Kearns Goodwin and Michael Beschloss and journalist and author Haynes Johnson. Joining them tonight are historians Roger Wilkins and Stephen Ambrose. Welcome everybody. Stephen Ambrose, in your view, what is the historical significance of this?

STEPHEN AMBROSE, Historian: [Gulfport] Well, I think it's a negative, first of all. I think that the opportunity to improve race relations in the United States has been put off temporarily. And I say temporarily because my mind goes back to 1948, when Dwight Eisenhower turned down the Republicans and the Democrats. Harry Truman had offered to step aside if Ike would take the Democratic nomination. Ike later said that his worst night of his life was the election night of 1948. He'd assumed that Tom Dewey, who he respected and admired, was going to win and he would be off the hook. I think that we might get to the point that for Colin Powell the election night of 1996 is going to be the worst night of his life, because if Mr. Clinton wins, the pressure from the Republicans to become the candidate in the year 2000 is going to be just enormous.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Roger Wilkins, what do you think the historical significance of this is?

ROGER WILKINS: Well, if you look in the long-term, it's remarkable to see a lot of white Americans gloomy tonight because this black man wouldn't run, when at the beginning of the century, a bunch of white Americans went nuts when President Theodore Roosevelt invited a black man, Booker T. Washington, to lunch at the White House. So people who say that we can't make progress on this issue and don't make progress are just wrong. I would make one other observation about racial progress. There's going to be a lot of talk about that like Prof. Ambrose just did. The issue of racial progress doesn't rest just on Colin Powell's shoulders. There was a conservative columnist who said, "I would vote for Powell just on the issue of race." If people care about race, if they think we've got a problem, which we do have, then a lot of people ought to get into it, talk civilly, look at the issues, look at the poverty, and say, we've got to have a civil way of governing ourselves. It's not Colin Powell's responsibility.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Michael, has this happened before, that you know of? Is there any precedent for this, somebody who is so popular and a potential candidate who is doing so well in the polls who turns, turns away from it?

MICHAEL BESCHLOSS, Presidential Historian: Well, you know, oftentimes the fascinating thing is that people who are seen as commanding figures at the moment that they were considered for President and did not run turned out to be treated by history as much more minor figures politically. Amazingly enough, for instance, in the mid 1920's, there was an enormous boom for Henry Ford, the auto inventor in Michigan, who turned out later on and actually at the time to some extent to be very anti-semitic and have views that caused him to be very much rightfully criticized by historians and people in his own time. I think the fascinating thing is that this is really a decision point for Colin Powell historically. If he had announced today, if he had won the presidency next year, as certainly was possible, he could have been one of the great figures in American history. I think we have to at least entertain the possibility that as a result of not running, he may be a little bit more like Mario Cuomo, someone who was seen at the moment as an important figure politically but because he finally did not run for President turned out to be a much more minor figure in the flow of American affairs.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Do you agree with that, Haynes?

HAYNES JOHNSON, Author: I do, and I think there's something else here. I think it's not about race per se at all. The country was hungering with something different, something above the normal politics. You talk about civility. He talked about it in his statement to Mr. Powell, the civility, restoring respect in our public life. That's what the country feels so strongly about. That's why he was in a unique position. Steve Ambrose is right. It's a negative because it wasn't about being a Republican or a Democrat, but I think that people feel something's broken here. And this was a figure that could rise above it. I'm not being naive about above the storm, but he could reach out and conciliate and pacify and bring together all of the discord and strands of this very very tangled life.

MS. FARNSWORTH: And I would like to ask Doris Kearns Goodwin a question but we can't hear her, or she can't hear us. We're working on that. What do you think the impact is going to be on the electorate of this?

MR. JOHNSON: I think they'll be disappointed. I think they'll be let down. I think that there will be a huge sort of aftermath of not even wanting maybe to participate as much, is what I think, because the fact is I don't think the choices, the way people look at them right now, are too appealing. That's why he was in a unique position. I think that obviously we have a year to go. It's a long time. There are enormous issues on the table, and I think the reason he was in a unique position is because so much is at stake right now.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Okay. I think we've got Doris. Doris, is a different sort of person attracted right now to the--to running for office than in the past? Do you think that for example the--there's more personal ambition involved, less sense of service, do you think, and do you see anything there that you can comment on?

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN, Presidential Historian: [Hartford] I think it is going to be a worrisome thing that for the future it looks like people who have a deep ambition and are fired by such a need that they're willing to go through all the hurdles that it takes you to go through in politics now, when I think about Colin Powell's decision, it seems like the negative things added up so greatly that he didn't have that fire and passion to overturn it, but does that mean that we're left with only those people whose needs is so great for power that they're going to be the ones who are going to run for office, and does it mean that the people who have stature and reputation and have so much to lose are the ones that are not going to risk that by running for office? I think it raises serious questions about the whole state of our political process right now.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Roger.

MR. WILKINS: Well, I think that Haynes is right, that as the electorate looked at this, what they saw with Powell, part of it, he's an able fellow and he's an attractive fellow, and that's not to detract anything from him to say that part of his popularity was none of the above. And now people are going to look and say, is this all there is? What that means, maybe, that some other people will say, gee, a new day started at 3 o'clock on Wednesday afternoon, fellows like Bill Bradley and Jesse Jackson may take another look at getting in.

MR. JOHNSON: I've thought for a long time, for what it's worth, that this is going to be another extraordinarily volatile year, and it should be, because we ought to be talking about these questions. If Mr. Powell chooses not to run, then the issues are still there, so I think there will be others that will get in. We haven't heard from Mr. Perot. We haven't heard other aspects of this thing.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Stephen Ambrose, back to the history of this just for a minute, Eisenhower chose not to run in '48, and then ran in '52? Do you think Powell might choose to run in 2000?

MR. AMBROSE: I don't know, of course, but I sure do hope so, and there's an awful lot of water to flow and many rapids to get over and waterfalls before we get to that point, but he's--if Bill Clinton wins reelection, I guarantee you the Republican Party from almost the furthest right in the Republican Party to the center is going to be just putting pressure on Colin Powell to become the Republican candidate for the President in the year 2000. And I'll be one of them, myself.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Michael.

MR. BESCHLOSS: Well, I think there is even an atmospheric reason for this, and that is that one of the most important parts of the office of the Presidency is the part that unifies the country, that's almost a paternal, well, we would hope one day a maternal, figure. That's one of the areas that I think voters have felt that Bill Clinton really has fallen short. I think that's one reason why there's been such a hunger for someone like Colin Powell to run. And one problem that I think is really illuminated today is that this process is so brutal and it requires such overweening ambition, it requires probably in an earlier day would have required a Woodrow Wilson to twist the arms of big contributors, the kind of thing that you can't really imagine. The result is that to some extent it will screen out the kind of figure that really can fill that unifying role and that probably Colin Powell would have been very good at if President.

MS. FARNSWORTH: So, Michael, do you think this is really historically quite significant, or are we all just interested in this because we all--the press has been very interested in, in Colin Powell as somebody said here on the show, the press loves a good story, or do you think this really has lasting significance?

MR. BESCHLOSS: I think one real question is what might have been. There's a reason why Colin Powell has occupied such an enormous place in our politics, particularly during the last 60 days, but really over the last number of years. I think one reason for that is this hunger for leadership. Another reason may be the feeling among many in the Republican Party that if they're going to be a majority for a generation on both the congressional level and the presidential level, that even conservative ideologues feel that you're going to have to be a bigger tent and move to the center with a Powell or Powell type.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Doris, what do you think about that? Give us some reading of the significance of this in your view.

MS. GOODWIN: Well, you know, it's going to be an interesting thing to see. In some ways, like these last few months, we've almost had a love affair with this handsome stranger who came out of nowhere who had all this mystery and drama and excitement attached to him, and now we're back to the familiar old faces. And yet, on the other hand, I think that the political process--we haven't been in love with Powell that long--it's only been a couple of months--the political process will throw up to us people that we're going to have to get interested in because they'll be the only ones there. And whether or not the Republicans take note from Powell's attempt to move the party toward the center, whether Bill Clinton takes note from Powell's stature and reputation and authority, both parties, I think, have something to learn from the mystery that attracted us to Powell in the first place. But I don't know whether they'll learn once they get into it.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Roger.

MR. WILKINS: I think this is historic. Just as Jesse Jackson's two runs for the presidency made the idea of a black President thinkable, this massive figure of Colin Powell just taking all the water out from everybody else will be remembered by everyone, and I think it's taken that recognition of blacks being President one step further and if he actually does what he says he wants to do with the Republican Party, that is, open it up, embolden really the moderates in the party to step up, he will help make American politics far more civil, because it will just leach that toxic race veneer that's over all domestic debate out of it, and that will be a historic thing for this man to do.

MS. FARNSWORTH: What about the, the security aspect of it? I know that in the press conference Colin Powell said that it was not a factor in his decision, but it's so dangerous to run for President, and we have the Martin Luther King assassination, we have--I mean, the race aspect makes it even more dangerous. This is historically new in the last 40 years. I mean, I know there have been assassinations, but it's worse now.

MR. JOHNSON: The fact is that everyone for the last generation, virtually, happily until the recent two Presidents who came for office, was destroyed--the person who spoke for you was gone, whether it was Martin Luther King or Malcolm X or George Wallace or Richard Nixon, or the Kennedy Brothers, or whatever it was, a Lyndon Johnson, they're all gone in a very quick period of time, so the country withdraws from that process, and it's--there's also the specter of violence, and our politics is violent. And our discourse is violent. And that's one reason people were looking for something else. I think the significance is this was a chance, a moment, at least, where it was possible for an independent to actually run and win. I really believe that might have happened. Who knows? It made me positive, though, that the country has to realize there are no miracle people, and we've got to look at ourselves, and hey, politics is hard business, government is hard business, so get on with what we've got.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Stephen Ambrose, I was struck by something that Joe Klein of "Newsweek" wrote. He said that, even supporters of, of Colin Powell would have been disappointed if he had decided to run. I know you were a supporter, so I'm putting this question to you. He said, because he would have been permitted none of the eccentricities that made the political heroes of history memorable because we, as he said, the Puritans of the press, have become the enforcers of a vast arid public banality. Do you think that's true?

MR. AMBROSE: No, I don't think that's true in the case of Colin Powell. I believe he is his own man and would have been his own man in a campaign, would have had plenty of laughs on the campaign, or would have stood up there and said, I got to think about that one, instead of giving a sound bite answer. There was a reason why the press was so ga-ga over Colin Powell. And it wasn't that they didn't have any other good stories for Monday morning. It was what those polls were showing, and what those polls were showing was a tremendous yearning on the part of the American people for a hero, and a sense of national unity, and Colin Powell was giving that to us, and he's still in a position to give us a lot. And you're quite right in the whole show tonight that you get off that the presidential stage, and you're not on any--there's nothing else to compare to it. But he still can do a lot of very good things for this country, and we'll see what happens in four years from now.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Doris, what do you think? What about Joe Klein's point that it's very difficult for a candidate to have eccentricities, that there's a kind of--that the press asks for a kind of banality from candidates, or else they're exposed?

MS. GOODWIN: I'm not sure that the press asks for banalities. I think it's just that the private lives of our public leaders are so much more exposed today that if you're sensitive to protecting your family, as I think Powell was and is, it's much harder to not get defensive when somebody asks you those really rude questions about what your wife and your children are thinking and feeling at that exact moment. They wouldn't have thought about that 50 years ago. There's a level of intrusion today that keeps the soul or the individual of the candidate away from being protected. And I don't know that it's banality, but I think it's that intrusion that's much harder, and I don't know whether Colin Powell would have allowed himself to go through that.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Is it worse now, or not, Michael?

MR. BESCHLOSS: It's a lot worse, and you have to compare tonight to the moment that Dwight Eisenhower decided to run in the Spring of 1952. He had, of course, to deal with rumors that his wife drank too much, that he was involved with a woman during the war, in England, rumors about which the evidence is very ambiguous even to this day among historians, but it was nothing like the brutality of the kind of road that a presidential candidate has to run now, especially one like Colin Powell, who has not had a history in elective office where these questions have been answered before.

MS. FARNSWORTH: So, Roger, do you think that if a man lke Colin Powell decides not to run, that something is very, very wrong, or do you think this is individual with him really?

MR. WILKINS: Well, I think it's individual with him. After all, this fellow has given this country 35 years of uninterrupted service. He's got to at least have a couple of years of freedom. When he came out, he said that he owed a terrific debt to his wife for all of those years of faithful army service. They have a right to some privacy, some time to be together and to enjoy themselves and their children. He may reverse this. After all, he did not make the kind of statement that a former general made: "If nominated, I will not run, if elected, I shall not serve."

MS. FARNSWORTH: You're talking about Sherman.

MR. WILKINS: It was not Shermanesque, so I think one of the nice things is to look at a sane man under the glare of the public spotlight who has his own priorities and knows himself. That was a lovely thing today.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Well, gentlemen, Doris, thank you very much. RECAP

MR. LEHRER: Again, the major stories of this Wednesday, besides the Powell decision: the Senate delayed a vote on the late-term abortion ban by sending the legislation to a committee for more hearings, and Democrats claimed general victory in yesterday's state and local elections around the country, Republicans challenged that view. We'll see you tomorrow night. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.