The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MacNeil: Good evening. Leading the news this Monday, Liberian government troops were blamed for a massacre of 600 people, a top British politician was killed by a car bomb, a federal court began hearings on America's toughest anti-abortion law. We'll have the details in our News Summary in a moment. Jim.

MR. LEHRER: After the News Summary, we explore two troubled island stories. First, what's behind the coup attempt in Trinidad [FOCUS - TROUBLE IN TRINIDAD], then how long can Fidel Castro [FOCUS - CASTRO'S CRUNCH] hold out against glasnost in Cuba, next a report [FOCUS - MENACING MUSSELS] on the tiny creatures that have become a big problem in the Great Lakes, and finally a Molly Ivins essay on [ESSAY - BODY LANGUAGE] fighting fat.NEWS SUMMARY

MR. MacNeil: There was a mass killing in Monrovia, the capital of Liberia, today. Government troops reportedly broke into a church compound which was serving as a refugee camp and killed at least 600 people. Witnesses told reporters that most of the victims were women and children. Most of the refugees are members of the Geo and Mano tribes which have supported the rebels. The government troops are members of the Kran and Mandingo tribes. A spokesman for the government blamed the massacre on rebels dressed in government uniforms. UN Sec. Gen. Perez De Cuellar withdrew all UN personnel from Liberia and protest and said he reacted to the killing with horror and dismay. Jim.

MR. LEHRER: The standoff continued today in the capital of the Caribbean nation, Trinidad and Tabego. Gunfire was heard where Moslem rebels have been holding hostage the prime minister and other government officials since Friday. We have a report from Trinidad by Desmond Hammil of Independent Television News.

MR. HAMMIL: The smoke continues to drift upwards from police barracks blown up on Friday, the starting point for all this, when the rebels entered the red parliament buildings and seized their hostages. But what started as a political coup turned into a classic hostage situation, a messy, drawn out affair, which keeps the capital streets deserted for most of the day and many people away from work. The strict new curfew measures mean that the city center is now 24 hours a day. In the rest of the city and indeed the whole of the country, people have only six hours each day to go about their business, form mid day to 6 in the evening. Three days after the attempted coup scenes like this are commonplace. The sounds of gunfire can still be heard, the police shooting into the air to discourage looters, rather than shooting at them.

MR. LEHRER: Late today there were reports a settlement was near, but there's been no official announcement. We'll have more on this story right after the News Summary.

MR. MacNeil: A top British politician was assassinated today. His name was Ian Gow. He was a member of Prime Minister Thatcher's conservative party and was an outspoken critic of the Irish Republican Army. He was killed by a bomb planted in his car in London. Nobody has claimed responsibility, but the IRA is suspected. Last week, an IRA bomb killed three British police officers and a nun in Northern Ireland.

MR. LEHRER: A big corporate takeover was announced in the computer industry today;. Japan's No. 1 computer maker, Fujitsu, has agreed to buy Britain's top computer maker, ICL, for $1.2 billion. That will make Fujitsu the world's second largest computer maker behind IBM.

MR. MacNeil: Pennsylvania's abortion law, regarded as the nation's toughest, was challenged in federal court today. Hearings began in U.S. District Court in Reading, Pennsylvania, over restrictions passed in 1988 and '89. The state law requires married women to notify their husbands before having an abortion. It generally bans abortions after the 24th week of pregnancy and requires a woman to wait 24 hours between the time she and her doctor discuss an abortion and the procedure. If the case makes it to the U.S. Supreme Court, it could provide an opportunity to re- evaluate the Roe Vs. Wade decision which legalized abortion.

MR. LEHRER: Pres. Bush met today with the prime minister of Latvia. They discussed the Baltic republic's quest for independence from the Soviet Union. Ivards Gasmanish told Mr. Bush countries in Europe have taken concrete steps to recognize Latvian independence and he would like to see the American government do the same.

MR. MacNeil: That's our News Summary. Coming up on the Newshour, rebellion in Trinidad, new pressures on Fidel Castro, the mussel invasion and a Molly Ivins essay. FOCUS - TROUBLE IN TRINIDAD

MR. LEHRER: We begin tonight with a story of political violence in the tiny, two island Caribbean nation of Trinidad and Tabego. A group of Moslem rebels is holding hostage the prime minister and members of his government. The hostages have been wired with dynamite. Moslems make up about 6 percent of the country's 1.3 million people. We have a background report from Jenny Russell of Independent Television News.

MS. RUSSELL: Reports from Trinidad say that the city center set alight on Friday night is burning again. Heavy firing and explosions have been reported near the parliament building and the television station is on fire. On Friday night, the rebels stormed the parliament building, seizing the prime minister and taking 30 other hostages. They claim to have wired the prime minister to explosives and said they would blow him up if any attempt was made on their position. At the same time, employees at the television station a mile away was seized by a second group of rebels. Over the weekend, security forces held off from attacking either building. Negotiations with the rebels in the besieged parliament began immediately and are reported to be near a conclusion. They've been demanding the resignation of the prime minister, fresh elections, and no retribution for those who staged the coup. The leader of the rebels, Abu Baka, is a Moslem who's long been in conflict with the government. Only 6 percent of the population are Moslem, and within that community, Abu Baka and his followers are regarded as fundamentalists extreme. Mr. Baka converted to Islam 11 years ago after a career as a policeman. He established a commune outside the capital where he and his followers frequently came into conflict with the authorities. Allegations of gun possessions, rape, murder, and theft were made against commune members. For his part, Mr. Baka believed the government was ignoring the needs and rights of Moslems. He apparently hoped to capture lives on Trinidad's economic crisis and the discontent of its population.

ARIF ALI, Editor "Caribbean Times": Probably half of the army did not respond as they should have responded when this happened. Now also the same thing with the police forces. I was told by someone in the government in Trinidad and Tabego that maybe the people who carried out the coup had inside information and inside support because it was very very efficiently put over and quickly, and on that basis one would think only because they feel it was the right moment, because the government was so unpopular, there were so many unpopular measures being taken by the government, that they would have been successful and they have proven it right if they can carry it on beyond here.

MS. RUSSELL: The standard of living in Trinidad has been tumbling for a decade. In the 1970s, the islands were prosperous, flourishing on the income from oil and natural gas. But when oil prices fell in the 1980s, so did incomes. In the last three years, 15 percent of the working populations have lost their jobs. Many Trinidadians are experiencing hunger for the first time. That could explain why extreme groups like Abu Baka's now have some support.

MR. ALI: You've got movements of this nature. You've got small pockets of organization, radical organization, organizations who are religious, as his organization seems to be based, who feel that, you know, things may not be going right. But you know, they can't succeed unless things within that country aren't going right.

MS. RUSSELL: When the prime minister was swept to power four years ago, he promised the people economic growth. Within months he had asked them to sacrifice as the economy slipped further into chaos. At the weekend, people responded to the power vacuum not with demonstrations of support for the government, but with an orgy of looting as they helped themselves to all the goods they've become too poor to buy. Whatever the resolution of this political crisis, the economic problems which helped create it will remain.

MR. LEHRER: For more on this story the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for inter American Affairs Bernard Aronson. Mr. Secretary welcome. Is there any new news on this situation tonight?

SEC. ARONSON: The latest news is that the Government and the hostage takers have been in negotiations since about an hour ago. Those talks are scheduled to resume approximately 10 o'clock.

MR. LEHRER: Is there a feeling of optimism that thing is going to be resolved soon?

SEC. ARONSON: I think that it is too early to say. They have been in constant negotiations. There have been some agreements but they haven't reached final settlement. It is not clear whether this will be successful or not but the Government is engaged in those discussions.

MR. LEHRER: Is there any word whether any one has been hurt, the hostages have been hurt?

SEC. ARONSON: There have been reports that the Prime Minister and one other minister were shot in the leg during the actual takeover. They are being treated by the Minister of Health. I think they are okay and there has been lose of life in other incidents.

MR. LEHRER: What about this report about the dynamite being wired to them. Can you confirm that?

SEC. ARONSON: I can't confirm that. That was a report several days ago and I am not sure that it is true and it may very well not be true.

MR. LEHRER: What leads you to say that?

SEC. ARONSON: Because eye witnesses who were inside the building indicate that they do not believe that there was dynamite wired to the hostages.

MR. LEHRER: Has the Government or any body representing the Government asked the United States for assistance in this matter?

SEC. ARONSON: Well we have been in touch with the Representatives of the Government in the Port of Spain from the very beginning of this incident.

MR. LEHRER: That is the Capitol City?

SEC. ARONSON: That is the Capitol.

MR. LEHRER: I see.

SEC. ARONSON: And we have been in touch with other Governments in the region but this is a very delicate situation.I don't think that it would be helpful to comment on any requests that they may have made to us at this time.

MR. LEHRER: But is there any possibility of U.S. military action being necessary?

SEC. ARONSON: Well at this time the Government of Trinidad, Tobago has full control of the Country. Their army and police vastly outnumber the hostage takers. So that is not an issue before us.

MR. LEHRER: Is it not even a possibility?

SEC. ARONSON: Well at this time the Government has full control of the Country. They are trying to resolve the hostage situation with minimal loss of life but there is no popular rebellion.

MR. LEHRER: Are there American experts in hostage taking involved in any of this?

SEC. ARONSON: Well like is said this is a delicate situation and I don';t think that it is useful for us to comment about what relations we have with the Government at this time. As you know the principle hostage taker has said publicly the involvement of others is something that he would be concerned about. So I don't think that it is useful to speculate.

MR. LEHRER: What is your understanding as to what these folks want. What the motive is or was of the hostage takers?

SEC. ARONSON: Well the leader of the group has spoken about a number of issues but he has had along running dispute with the Government there. They occupied some land that is owned by the Government. They have been forcibly removed from parts of it. Some members of his group have been connected with criminal activity. He has stated purposes are I think you will have to allow him to define. He has a whole range of concerns and social concerns that he claims motivated him to take this action.

MR. LEHRER: There have been reports that he or his group have ties to Libya. Can you shed any light on that?

SEC. ARONSON: Well he himself has said that his group has ties to Libya. Some members have received some training there. There have been reports in the past of some arms smuggling from the Libyans.

MR. LEHRER: But is there any word that Libya had anything to do with this particular action?

SEC. ARONSON: I don't think that we know that at this particular time. There have been some political ties, perhaps some financial ties in the past. I think that when this incident is done we probably will know more about it.

MR. LEHRER: Are you optimistic at this point that this thing is going to be resolved fairly soon and peacefully?

SEC. ARONSON: We hope that it will be resolved soon and that it will be resolved peacefully but these are dangerous individuals, they are armed, they are already responsible for the loss of life. So I don't think that one can predict.

MR. LEHRER: What has been the loss of life. Who has died?

SEC. ARONSON: We don't have accurate numbers. I don't want to speculate but there definitely have been some people killed in this incident.

MR. LEHRER: People who were high level members of the Government?

SEC. ARONSON: Not necessarily but there have been some shooting incidents. There was an attack on a police station and there have been some other incidents.

MR. LEHRER: But as far as you know any members of the President's cabinet, any of those people been killed?

SEC. ARONSON: Not that we know of. I would like to make one point about the nature of this incident.

MR. LEHRER: Sure.

SEC. ARONSON: This is not a revolution it is not a political rebellion. This group is a very tiny fanatic sect with no popular support. No segment of the Army has supported it. No segment of the police, No segment of the Government. And no segment of the opposition parties and even in the Muslim community this action has been denounced. So this is a very small group and I don't think that one should read great political significance in to what has happened here.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Secretary thank you. Don't go away we will be back to you in a few minutes to talk about Cuba. Thank you.

SEC. ARONSON: Thank you.

MR. MacNeil: Still to come on the Newshour new pressure in Cuba against Fidel Castro, the invading muscles and a Molly Ivins essay. FOCUS - CASTRO'S CRUNCH

MR. MacNeil: We turn now to another Caribbean Island that has been a source of tempest and controversy for Americans since the Spanish American War and especially the last 30 years Castro's Cuba. Last Friday Castro celebrated the 37th anniversary of his revolution. Today he told Indian Television the more adversaries socialism has the more I love socialism. As one of those few surviving communist leaders every sign of trouble for Castro is seen as a clue to his survivability. The most visible sign of discontent in his tightly control nation has been a recent effort by scores of Cubans to seek refuge in foreign Embassies in Havana. But there is also trouble for Fidel as Moscow trims the aid that maintains Cuba. The Official that helped negotiate that aid Ramon Gonzales recently defected to the West. Charles Krause talked with him last week.

MR. KRAUSE: Mr. Gonzalez thank you for joining us this week. You have been a high ranking Cuban Official and diplomate for more that 25 years. Why did you decide to defect now.

MR. GONZALEZ: Well I made the decision to defect a long time ago, During the long year in feel cheated by the systems where everything is controlled and I detect the difference between words and facts. But I have to wait for the opportunity and at last the opportunity arises. All my family were together. We were together outside Cuba. That is why I decided to take the first and last chance to do that.

MR. KRAUSE: It is kind of ironic in a way, don't you think, that it is now apparently easier to defect to the West from Moscow than from Cuba.

MR. KRAUSE: Yes in the sense that it is easier. That is why so many desperate people take a boat and go to the sea. Cuba is a very closed society. Everything is controlled, everything is checked up. So it is very difficult to do that from Cuba.

MR. KRAUSE: There have been reports that Gorbachev is in fact fed up with Fidel. Did you get any sense of that in your dealings with Moscow?

MR. GONZALEZ: Well this is not exactly the way they express their opinion. They are very discreet about this but the international and general policy of the Soviet Union open. It is to end the cold war, maintain a good relationship with the West and a new mentality. And in this sense the old political reason for the Cuban Government is in contradiction with the new policy.

MR. KRAUSE: On the other hand Castro himself has made some rather unflattering public remarks about the Soviet Union, about peristroika, glasnost, Gorbachev. What do you think he thinks about what is going on the Soviet Union?

MR. GONZALEZ: Well he disagrees with the present forces in the Soviet Union. He makes public and private very clear analysis of his feeling and assumptions of the process. Of course he has a very different point of view. He don't want the Soviet Union pattern to be transferred to Cuba. So he has isolated the Cuban population from the influence of this new point of view.

MR. KRAUSE: Why is he so afraid to allow an opening in Cuba?

MR. GONZALEZ: Well the same nature of the system in Cuba is virtually in his personal power, his personal command of almost everything. The Communist Party in Cuba runs everything, controls everything and decides everything. So the multi party system is unbelievable from the Cuban point of view. So he can not allow any concessions, he can not allow any break in this point of view because this is a very dangerous step for his personal power.

MR. KRAUSE: But at the same time he has also refused to open the economy to more competition, to market forces, to incentives as they are trying to do in the Soviet Union. Why is he so afraid of that kind of change?

MR. GONZALEZ: He won't accept to give power, to give freedom to enterprise to decide what they want to do without any central planning or central officials. There is a contradiction. And he supports very strongly the central direction of the economy.

MR. KRAUSE: You must have been aware of the aid flows of the amount of aid that had been going from the Soviet Union to Cuba. When did it become apparent that the Soviet Union was going to reduce the aid that it was providing to Cuba?

MR. GONZALEZ: From the last year it became very evident that the economic situation and the political climate in the Soviet Union that the old system can not be maintained. I must say the present economic condition in the Soviet Union is very difficult and the Soviets have to take measures and they have to reduce the aid not only to Cuba I think, all the countries . Even if they want to maintain the aid to Cuba I think they can't for economical reasons.

MR. KRAUSE: Can the Cuban economy survive with out this aid.

MR. GONZALEZ: No it is almost impossible. They have no alternative, no resources, to survive with out substantial aid from the Soviet Union.

MR. KRAUSE: There have been reports that Castro is also saying, that the Cuban Government is already telling people to expect the kind of a war time economy. That things are going to become even more difficult in the year ahead. What is that going to mean for the future of Castro and his Government?

MR. GONZALEZ: Fidel has declared very clearly we have to be prepared for economical reasons that have the same results as a military blockade. So they are preparing for some sort of very hard times, like war times, with out fuel, without raw materials. With a complete fall off in production. So only maintaining the most vital supplies, closing factories and sending thousands of people to the country side to work like peasants. Something like that. It is an exceptional situation.

MR. KRAUSE: Do you expect this to trigger political opposition, demonstrations?

MR. GONZALEZ: This will bring immediately social discontent. The situation will be the beginning for a very difficult internal political situation.

MR. KRAUSE: Is it the beginning of the end for Castro?

MR. GONZALEZ: It may be the beginning of the end but very hard times for the Cuban people.

MR. KRAUSE: Thank you very much.

MR. MacNeil: Now we hear two perspectives on events inside Cuba. Jacqueline Tillman is Executive Director the American National Foundation. She was formerly Director For Latin America at the National Security Council under President Reagan. Ramon Cernuda is a Cuban American who is affiliated with several human rights groups inside Cuba and he joins us from Miami. Ms. Tillman is this the beginning of the end for Castro as these pressures mount on him principally the changes in Soviet aid.

MS. TILLMAN: I believe that Fidel Castro's regime is more vulnerable today than it has even been and will continue to be vulnerable. I think that the pressures are increasing at a dazzling speed as changes in the Soviet block change that quickly as well. It is very difficult to imagine that his regime will be difficult to survive.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Cernuda do you agree with that more vulnerable than ever?

MR. CERNUDA: Yes I would basically agree that the Castro Government is more vulnerable than ever now. We can not forget that the economist have stated that Cuba's economy is the 13th economy of Latin America. There are 12 or 13 economies under the Cuban Economy in per capita of income and standard of living. And we don't see revolutions in those countries so we will not agree that the economic factors alone will be determining factors in provoking changing Cuba.

MR. MacNeil: But that Cuban standard of living is at the moment and until now has been supported, sustained and subsidized by the degree of Soviet aid and now the Soviets are reducing that aid and they also want Castro to pay for it in hard currency. Won't that change the economic situation?

MR. CERNUDA: Yes it certainly change the economic situation. There will be protests, there will be resistance but Soviet aid to the Cuban economy represents 25 percent of the economy for the entire nation. And we are not certain that the lacking of this will topple the Government. We believe that as Mr. Ramon Gonzales just said very hard times will come about and the regime will attempt at staying in power and it still has sufficient political and repressive resources to probably hold on for some time.

MR. MacNeil: Do you believe Ms. Tillman that the changes in aid will topple the government?

MS. TILLMAN: It is hard to say with any precision that it is going to cause political change inside Cuba. My sense is that the significance of reduction in Soviet aid, Cuba's increasing isolation is the signal that gives to the elite in Cuba. I think that it is possible to postulate that they may be able to encourage Fidel Castro, which is my favorite scenario, to hop a plane to North Korea or somewhere and go into a transition for democracy. But I think that is the combination of pressure from below and the pressure coming from the elite. We know today Mr. Gonzalez's defection is a classic example of the result of that kind of defection. People are defecting and people are speaking out. The pressure inside Cuba is more vocal and more viable than before.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Cernuda you represent a number of civil rights groups inside Cuba. The dissent is more apparent but it is not also being just as effectively being repressed as it was before or suppressed?

MR. CERNUDA: It is being repressed harder now but at the same time the human rights movement in Cuba is proposing some kind of negotiations with the Government. There is still space, enough political space to attempt evolution towards democracy with out the need for civil war in Cuba.

MR. MacNeil: Is that just wishful thinking or do you think that the economic pressures might actually make him change his mind and cause him to open negotiations?

MR. CERNUDA: Well economic pressures are certainly a push in the right direction and other factors losing popularity with in the country and the other alternatives. We feel that many people with in the power structure would prefer a scenario similar to Poland or Nicaragua than one similar to Romainia. It certainly would be better for the Country as a whole and the people in power at this time.

MR. MacNeil: Ms. Tillman how do you evaluate Fidel's personal authority at this time. Does he have enough of the old charisma and magnetism with ordinary Cubans to sustain them through a period of what we just heard described war time austerity?

MS. TILLMAN: I should think not. I think that what I sense on the part of the Cuban people on the mass level and also I think on the elite level is the growing recognition that Fidel Castro is responsible for the misery in their lives. It is his resistance to change, It is his rejection of permitting any rejection of freedom political or economic that is responsible for the misery in their lives. I think that catches up. I don't think that leaders sustain themselves indefinitely in to power with the vision of the future that Fidel Castro presented last Thursday in the revolutionary holiday speech which he gives every year.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Cernuda what do you think of Castro's own personal credibility and authority as the symbol of all this to demand more austerity and sending white collar people in the country to harvest crops, In other words the kind of bunker mentality under the face of the reduced Soviet aid. Does he have the authority to command their following and respect?

MR. CERNUDA: Well the human rights movement inside Cuba recognizes Castro still holds charisma and is a leader of a sector of the Cuban people. He certainly represents a criteria or point of opinion with in Cuban society. I also believe that the people in power sense that without Castro as the head of the Government their probabilities for staying in power are next to null. So I think that Castro's proposals for the short term and medium range will continue to receive the support of the Communist Party and of the rest of the power structure and certainly a segment of the Cuban population. We will see that he has the ability to mobilize people in a certain direction.

MR. MacNeil: We've seen all these examples in the last year of one East European nation following, even the least likely to go have gone. Is there a particular nation that we can say Cuba most resembles in the pattern it might follow? Mr. Cernuda.

MR. CERNUDA: Yes the Nicaraguan situation most resembles the Cuban. The people who were in power until recently have become a significant opposition force. We believe that the Communist Party in Cuba and the revolutionary factor will continue to be an important factor in Cuban politics even after the Castro Government is gone.

MR. MacNeil: Ms. Tillman, is that credible to you, that Nicaragua could be the model, rather than a Romania or something else?

JACQUELINE TILLMAN, Cuban American Activist: Well, I believe that what Eastern Europe shows is that change was produced after the removal one way or the other of the longstanding dictators. It seems to me that's almost a prerequisite for change, starting, you know, in the Soviet Union with Brezhnev and then Jakes and Ceausescu, Zighof, all of these people had to leave power one way or the other before there could be any evolution, and this is why a good many of the analysts believe that a good number of the armed forces in Cuba will one way or the other remove the Castro brothers from power?

MR. MacNeil: How serious is this people seeking refuge at these European embassies? What does that indicate in terms of the regime's vulnerability, Ms. Tillman?

MS. TILLMAN: I believe that Castro's response has been absolutely incredible in the sense that he has now endangered his closest political and economic ally in Western Europe, which is Spain, through vehement criticisms and insults actually. I think it shows that I like to think that it may be that TV Marti and Radio Marti may not be jammed as quite as effectively as the Cuban government is saying because the first attempts to enter the Czech embassy occurred shortly after Albanians arrived in Prague on Havel's plane.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Cernuda, what does the embassy situation say to you?

RAMON CERNUDA, Human Rights Activist: Well it says that tensions are stronger inside Cuban society, that people are beginning to become desperate again, as we saw in 1980, and that certainly there is a potential for a major crisis for the government, and I think that the way that the government has reacted shows their concern of the possibility of many thousands of people making a run towards the embassies. On the other hand, it is our opinion, the human rights movement, that the situation is at present under control, the embassies are surrounded, and we don't see that the situation can become more embarrassing or dangerous for the authorities.

MR. MacNeil: Thank you. Jim.

MR. LEHRER: Yes, now again the Asst. Sec. of State for Inter- American Affairs, Bernard Aronson. Mr. Secretary, what is the U.S. policy, as we speak, toward Cuba and Castro, and continued isolation?

BERNARD ARONSON, Assistant Secretary of State: Well, we hope that change will come to Cuba. We hope democratic change will come to Cuba, and we hope that Cuba will stop supporting violence in Latin America, but until we see signs of that change, we're going to continue to try to use our influence to isolate the regime, deny it hard currency, so that it can't have more dollars to produce more AK-47 rounds to send to El Salvador to kill Salvadorans.

MR. LEHRER: But is Castro and Cuba, are they seen as the menace that they've always been seen? Has there been a change in our attitude toward, not necessarily toward what they did in the past, but what they're doing now?

SEC. ARONSON: I don't think our attitude towards the Castro regime has changed. I think what has changed is our relationship with the Soviet Union so that there is less concern about Soviet strategic involvement in this hemisphere, less concern about the direct Soviet military threat, though I would note there has been no Soviet military withdrawal from Cuba, but that's where the change has come so that Cuba is seen somewhat more in its own terms and not primarily as a staging ground or a satellite of the Soviet Union.

MR. LEHRER: Well, one of the main things of course about Castro has been, the charge against him has been that he has been trying to export his form of government to the rest of Latin America with his own problems at home. Is he still trying to do that?

SEC. ARONSON: In some cases, yes. The height of that was in the early '60s and in the mid '60s, where Cuba was involved in revolutionary groups in half a dozen or more countries in South America, in Central America, but in November of 1989, about five months ago, 3,000 Salvadorans were killed in an offensive by the FMLN guerrilla force. Those forces continue to be supported by Cuba, continue to be armed by Cuba. The Salvadoran government discovered an arms case last May with 300,000 rounds of AK-47 ammunition that were manufactured in Cuba in 1988, so they are still involved in that support of violent revolution, yes.

MR. LEHRER: What is the administration's reading about, on Castro's vulnerability at this point?

SEC. ARONSON: Well, I don't think the way to view it is Castro's vulnerability but the viability of that system over time, and that system is an acronym. It's a repressive police state and it's a command economy, and those systems are not doing very well in the modern world. 80 percent of Cuba's trade depends on Soviet Union and the Eastern European allies of the Soviet Union or the former allies. Those countries, the Eastern European countries, are no longer interested in trading with Cuba. Cuba cannot pay its bills. It has an 8 to 10 billion dollar debt, and the Soviet Union, the more it evolves into market mechanisms for its own enterprises is less interested in trading with Cuba, so in the long run, this system is not viable. How it will change and in what form that change will take I don't think you could predict precisely, but that change will come I think is for sure.

MR. LEHRER: Has Mr. Gorbachev indicated to Mr. Bush or anyone else what his attitude is toward change in Cuba?

SEC. ARONSON: Well, we've talked to the Soviet Union extensively about their relationship with Cuba since Pres. Bush took office. It's a very important matter to the President, and he has made it clear to the Soviet Union since the first day that their relationship with Cuba would have an effect on their relationship with the United States. I think the Soviet Union wants to find a way to evolve a way and reduce its relationship to Cuba. I think they want to do so in a certain face saving manner. I don't think they want to be seen as simply severing ties without any kind of process with a longstanding ally, but I think the Soviets are also mindful that Castro cost them something in this hemisphere, that he is an isolated figure, that he is a wave of the past, while Latin America's turning to democracy, and that the Soviet Union has hitched its star to a wagon that's going nowhere.

MR. LEHRER: Is the United States doing anything directly or even indirectly to encourage the pro-democracy movement, glasnost, in Cuba?

SEC. ARONSON: Well, we certainly try through Radio Marti and TV Marti to be a source of free information to the island. We try politically in all our relations to support human rights. We were very active in the UN Human Rights Commission last year which voted in a very important vote with Czechoslovakian and Bulgarian and Hungarian support to call on the UN to monitor Cuba, and we continue as I said before to try to deny the regime hard currency which it will use to support violence in the hemisphere.

MR. LEHRER: But the United States has not taken any indirect steps, I know they haven't made any direct steps or we'd know them, but any indirect steps to say to Fidel Castro, look, if you want to change your ways, the United States will help you and get through this difficult time, I mean, is there anything like that going on at all?

SEC. ARONSON: Well, one of the myths about our relationship to Cuba is that we, in fact, don't talk to the Cubans. We, in fact, talk to the Cubans regularly. We have an intrasection in Havana. They have an intrasection in Washington. We have higher level dialogue on our migration agreement, and we're always open to listen to them if they're prepared to tell us that they want to change their policy. That's really the issue. It isn't up to the U.S. We're waiting to see some signs that they want to change their policy. We would be very pleased to hear from them that they like all of Latin America and the Soviet Union are now supporting the Central American peace process and an end to the war in El Salvador. We would welcome that news. We would welcome news that they're prepared to stop suppressing human rights activists in Cuba to permit some kind of pluralistic opening, and that would affect our views, so we're open to such news. We haven't gotten any yet, but we would like to receive it.

MR. LEHRER: All right, Mr. Secretary, thank you.

SEC. ARONSON: Thank you. FOCUS - MENACING MUSSELS

MR. MacNeil: Next tonight we look at a European invader that is causing havoc in the Great Lakes. It's called the zebra mussel, a tiny creature that clings to the insides of pipes and the bottoms of boats. So far, the communities around Lake Erie have been hardest hit. But now that summer's fully here, there's concern that recreational boats will spread them to other areas. Dave Iverson of public station WHA-TV in Madison, Wisconsin, reports from Monroe, Michigan, about this environmental problem.

MR. IVERSON: Lake Erie, the source of drinking water for thousands of cities, cities like Monroe, Michigan, a place that now has a big problem.

WILFRED LePAGE, Water Treatment Superintendent: This is probably the greatest challenge that I've faced during more than 35 years of municipal drinking water treatment.

MR. IVERSON: The Monroe water treatment plant purifies 13 million gallons of water each day, but the pipes that draw the water in from Lake Erie are sometimes blocked by something called the zebra mussel.

MR. LePAGE: So when the zebra mussels took up residence inside our intake, they severely impaired our ability to obtain water through it, and consequently on three occasions this year, we were virtually put out of business.

MR. IVERSON: And so on the edge of Lake Erie, the water treatment is sometimes out of water. The culprit is this small barnacle like clam named for its striped back. The zebra is also incredibly prolific and it's now invading the Great Lakes. U.S. fish and wildlife biologists are sounding the alarm. The little zebra is capable of causing gargantuan problems. Samples from around the Great Lakes show a population explosion that is now out of control.

KEN MUTH, U.S. Fish and Wildlife: I think that we've caught a real major problem here. We don't know how to control it, but it's certainly strong evidence that they are rapidly spreading throughout the lake.

MR. IVERSON: The zebra mussel is actually a foreign invader. Their ports of origin are along the inland waterways of Europe. Now they've immigrated across the Atlantic, carried in the ballast water of international ships. Once in the Great Lakes, ships dump their ballast water, providing the zebras with a new home, and in the nutrient rich waters of the Great Lakes, the zebras have flourished. The problem is just beginning to receive congressional and environmental attention. Meanwhile, the zebras are creating havoc.

DON SCHLOESSER, U.S. Fish and Wildlife: They eat voraciously. It's amazing how much they take in per unit size.

MR. IVERSON: And what they eat is as significant as how much they eat. Zebras fancy the microscopic animals that make up the most basic elements of the food chain, which means they can potentially disrupt the entire eco system of the Great Lakes.

DON SCHLOESSER, U.S. Fish and Wildlife: Sometimes I like to envision it as the guy in the supermarket who sees a row of oranges all put up, and he wants the bottom orange. He goes along and pulls out that orange and everything falls. The eyes are totally covered.

MR. IVERSON: The zebras may primarily disrupt the bottom of the food chain, but little seems to escape, including this crayfish taken from Lake Erie, or this clam, also native to the Great Lakes. It too is covered with zebra mussels. Even fishing line can't escape the zebra's attention. But the most immediate danger is to industry, the thousands of plants and factories that pump fresh water from the Great Lakes.

DON SCHLOESSER, U.S. Fish and Wildlife: They end up on the insides of the pipes, they begin to grow one on top another, and essentially they end up plugging up the pipes.

MR. IVERSON: The zebra mussel problem is one that European industries have already coped with. That's because water intake systems there were built with the zebra in mind. They have a kind of flushing capability that allows them to wash the zebra mussels back out into the river ways. But water intake systems here don't have that kind of capability, and clogged pipes are beginning to be a problem for both water systems and power plants.

BILL KOVALAK, Detroit Edison: In terms of risks to the water system right now at Monroe Power Plant, it's the most serious problem that we have.

MR. IVERSON: Example; back in Monroe, Michigan, the zebras are disrupting more than the water treatment plant. A nearby power plant is in trouble as well, a plant that depends on pumping a million and a half gallons of lake water every minute.

MR. KOVALAK: The main concern is that the animals will get in and occlude the pipes so as to shut off the supply of water.

MR. IVERSON: And there's reason to be concerned. Divers from Detroit Edison are finding zebras inside the pipes that carry water to and from Lake Erie. To illustrate how quickly zebras multiply, divers point to a plank found near the water pipes at the bottom of the lake.

DIVER: If we turn the board over, this is a side that was against the sand, no zebras at all, this board would have looked like this on both sides a little over two years ago, but a lot's changed in that time.

MR. IVERSON: The more scientists and utility officials research the zebra mussel, the more the potential problem becomes clear. Imagine this board is the inside of a water pipe. It's covered with several layers of zebra mussels, perhaps 10,000 or more. Scientists now believe that the west end of Lake Erie now contains the highest density of zebra mussels in the world, greater than even its native habitat in Europe.

DON SCHLOESSER, U.S. Fish and Wildlife: On a per square yard in Europe, the highest number that I've been able to see documented is 114,000 per square yard. Here in the states we've already measured 750,000 per square yard. They're bigger, they're more reproductive, the densities are higher, they go after things that are normally considered predators, the crayfish being an example. For some reason there doesn't seem to be a check on them right now.

MR. IVERSON: But what about a predator that would provide a natural check on the zebra mussel? In Europe, ducks provide that function by feeding off of the mussels, but in this country, the duck population is at an all time low and scientists doubt whether or not ducks will be enough to control the zebra mussel. And if ducks won't eat the zebras, what will? Biologists from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service are now looking for a fish that may develop an appetite for the zebra mussel. They drag nets throughout the Great Lakes in an attempt to catch a wide variety of fish. They examine the stomach contents, looking for digested remnants of zebra mussels, a clue that a predator-prey relationship might exist, that some fish has developed a taste for zebra mussels.

DON SCHLOESSER, U.S. Fish and Wildlife: To date, we have not seen any fish that have fed on zebra mussels, but we're hoping that there might be some predators, fish, that will utilize this new species in the lake.

MR. IVERSON: Until that happens, or even if it happens, scientists predict that thezebra will continue to spread throughout the Great Lakes and perhaps even beyond, moving with ballast water, or even clinging to boats that travel to other inland waterways. This summer, several states have issued warnings, asking small boat owners to be on the look out for zebras attached to their hulls.

DON SCHLOESSER, U.S. Fish and Wildlife: The potential is enormous and we're only measuring I think really the kind of the tip of the iceberg.

MR. IVERSON: This minuscule mussel is now something those who depend on Great Lakes water will have to contend with for sometime to come. The great zebra invasion has just begun. ESSAY - BODY LANGUAGE

MR. LEHRER: Finally tonight Molly Ivins, columnist for the Dallas Times Herald, takes a look at the latest fad in exercise for body and spirit.

MS. IVINS: This here is Richard Simmons, the noted exercise entrepreneur, leading a class in your basic sweaty aerobic workout. Whereas, this is Shirley, MacLaine, the noted spiritual seeker, giving us an inner workout. And I am here where the twain shall meet at a new age health spa in Baja, California. I came to get in touch with my body. High damn time too. My body and I hadn't been on speaking terms for years now. This place is called Rancho LaPuerto. It's at the base of a sacred mountain in Mexico, and also on the cutting edge of a trend. We are talking mind, body awareness, the latest development in the fitness craze. The people who brought you jogging are about to aerobicize your spiritual life. This is where the crystal meets the push up and meditation meets long distance hike.

MS. PILGRIM: Yoga tends to create balance in your body. Feel the balance between your body between the heaven and the earth. So Yoga connects you to the universe that you live in.

MS. IVINS: This is Phyllis Pilgrim, the yoga instructor and sort of spiritual guide here at the ranch. She's about to impose my spiritual life with a yoga pose.

MS. PILGRIM: Deep breath in, spiritual and calm, fill your lungs, and pounce. [Everybody exhaling exuberantly]

MS. IVINS: One of my problems in getting in touch with my body is that I don't understand the vocabulary they use here.

MS. PILGRIM: Just feel for the spaces in your body and reach into them with the breath.

MS. IVINS: I don't think I have any spaces in my body. It seems to me what we're dealing with here is a lot of that too too solid flesh. Rancho La Puerto does not neglect the old fashioned exercise class involving a lot of sweat. This too is held to be spiritually uplifting as scientifically speaking, it increases your neuro peptides which travel through the body doing dandy things for your nervous system, your immune system and your endocrine system. So far, not much spiritual progress.

TEACHER: Kind of talk to yourself. See what you need. Your body has its own way of communicating to you. See what it says to you.

MS. IVINS: That's the instruction we get constantly around here, but my body is like Old Man River, it don't say nothin'. I'm just waitin'. I finally heard from my body this morning. Weren't they here and I said to my body, hey, body, would you like to go to the 9 o'clock class and vigorous toning with resistance? Clear as a bell, my body said back to me, "Listen, bitch, do it and you die." Great! I'm finally in touch with my body and it turns out to have the personality of an unpleasant mafioso. But I listen to my body.

TEACHER: Slowly rise with breath, inhale and exhale.

MS. IVINS: Now here is a highly spiritual class, tai chi, which grew quite spiritually from an ancient Chinese form of warfare. In tai chi, it's important to find your center, and once you've located the little bugger, you have to get it fired up. Next you have to whip up your chi, which is your life force and store it in your life center.

TEACHER: We take this chi and we direct it down into the depths.

MS. IVINS: My chi feels a lot like biscuit dough. I can only hope it will rise someday.

INSTRUCTOR: Remember the mirror's job is to be with the leader.

MS. IVINS: This class is called Inner Journey, where we study a lot of good stuff like meditation, visualization and imagery. Also, we work on inner harmony and integration. Of course, it has occurred to me that most of this stuff could be a load of bull residue. On the other hand, there may be something to it, and how do you know if you don't try? This was my favorite spiritual exercise, the meditation hike at dawn. We were supposed to hike along, being in the now at every step. We stopped occasionally to open ourselves to the universe. Looking well to this week of new age disciplines that counseled me to focus on my body, my spirit, and my needs, I find myself somewhat troubled. I've always thought that a spiritual life was one that called a person to worship God and to serve man. Perhaps like Albert Schweitzer or Mother Teresa, I have thought that the healthiest spirits among us were to be found out clothing the naked, sheltering the homeless, and feeding the hungry. It had not previously occurred to me that spending a whole lot of time loving myself was a prerequisite for a healthy spiritual life. I had always thought it was a prerequisite for selfishness. The concept taught here is that if you spend a lot of time making yourself happy and listening to your body, you'll be able to offer your body to the world. Could be. You can't put your soul on a scale at the end of the week to see if it has lost or gained a few pounds, but to spend time in a place that offers both beauty and peace and the time to enjoy them is always a gift to the spirit, and my body is grateful too. RECAP

MR. MacNeil: Once again, the top stories this Monday, Liberian government troops were blamed for a massacre of 600 people in Monrovia, a top British member of parliament was killed by a car bomb, police said they suspect the Irish Republican Army, Moslem rebels in Trinidad and Tabego continued to hold the prime minister hostage. Asst. Sec. of State Bernard Aronson on the Newshour said talks between the two sides were suspended late today but may resume tonight. Good night, Jim.

MR. LEHRER: Good night, Robin. We'll see you tomorrow night with a look at whether the government should reduce its insurance on bank deposits. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.