The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour; Republican Convention

MR. LEHRER: Good evening. Leading the news this Tuesday, George Bush arrived in New Orleans, and announced Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle as his running mate, and the U.S. trade deficit took a sharp turn for the worse in June. We'll have the details in our News Summary in a moment. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: After the News Summary, aspects of the Republican Convention occupy us tonight, first a News Maker Interview in New Orleans with Secretary of State George Shultz, then selection [Focus - '88 - Winning Team?] of Sen. Dan Quayle as George Bush's running made. Elizabeth Brackett reports from his home state delegates from Indiana, and we analyze that choice. Judy Woodruff has a report [Focus - '88 - Gender Gap?] on the Bush gender gap problem. We have analysis from Gergen & Shields [Focus - '88 - David Gergen & Mark Shields], and a Roger Mudd Essay on tonight's Keynote Speaker [Essay - '88 - Keynoter Kean].NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: George Bush chose Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle as his running mate. Bush made the announcement today shortly after arriving in New Orleans for the Republican National Convention. He came into town on a Mississippi Riverboat and was greeted by thousands of flag waving supporters at a rally near the river bank. The Vice President's original plan was to announce the choice on Thursday morning, but he started calling those Natchez in this morning and by late afternoon the name of the winner, 41 year old Quayle, had leaked. So the announcement was made.

VICE PRESIDENT BUSH: Our party is blessed with the wealth of men and women who would be excellent, but my choice and the one I recommend is an outstanding United States Senator. He is a leader in matters of national security. He is an innovator who is leading the effort to retrain our workers in this country so that they will be able to better lead the work force of tomorrow. My choice for the Vice Presidency is Sen. Dan Quayle of Indiana.

SEN. DAN QUAYLE, GOP Vice-Presidential Candidate: It is George Bush's America that we will work for, we will work hard, and believe me, we will win because America cannot afford to lose!

MR. LEHRER: Dan Quayle is 41 years old, he is a second term Senator from Indiana, and comes from a family of prominent newspaper publishers in Indiana. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: There was bad news in the trade figures released today. The trade deficit when imports exceed exports rose sharply in June for the first time since February. The deficit, which stood at $9.8 billion in May, rose to 12.5 billion inJune, an increase of 28 percent. The news caused the U.S. dollar which had been rising recently to fall against major currencies. Commerce Secretary William Verity blamed the higher deficit on the strength of the economy which is soaking up imports. Democratic Candidate Michael Dukakis used the trade figures in responding to President Reagan's taunt last night that facts are stubborn things. Campaigning in Massachusetts, Dukakis said the U.S. is now the largest debtor nation in the world.

GOV. MICHAEL DUKAKIS: That's the consequence of eight years of borrow and spend, borrow and spend. Facts are stubborn things. But these are the facts that we're going to be debating in the course of the next 85 days. And they're the reason that I believe the people of this country are going to elect a Democratic President. We cannot continue to live on a credit card. We cannot continue to saddle our children and our grandchildren with the kind of financial burden that we've run up in the past eight years.

MR. LEHRER: There was an accident at nuclear power plant near Miami, Florida, today. Thirty-two hundred gallons of radioactive water linked into the plant's storm drainage system. It happened here at Florida Power & Light's Turkey Point Plant. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission said the spill came from a spent fuel unit and was released by a vent valve on a faulty pump casing. The NRC said the radiation was slight and posed no danger.

MR. MacNeil: The Soviets said today that the tense situation in Afghanistan would slow down their troop withdrawal by six weeks. Under the Geneva Agreement, the Soviet troop pullout was due to be completed by December 31st. Today the date was put back to February 15th. The Kremlin said that fierce fighting continued for control of the provincial capital Kunduz, forty miles from the Soviet border. Soviet Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ginardi Gerasimov also denied U.S. charges that the retreating Soviets were leaving millions of anti-personnel mines scattered throughout the country. He said all mines were being removed or mine fields identified to UN observers.

MR. LEHRER: In South Africa, a lawyer for Nelson Mandela said the black nationalist leader is suffering from tuberculosis. The 70 year old head of the African National Congress has been transferred from a Capetown Prison to a hospital. Doctors say Mandela's condition is satisfactory but have not confirmed that he has tuberculosis. Mandela's family called on the government to allow an independent team of doctors to examine him. Mandela has been in prison since 1962. He is serving a life sentence for attempting to overthrow the Pretoria Government.

MR. MacNeil: And that's our News Summary. Now it's on to Secretary of State Shultz, Sen. Quayle as the Bush running mate, the Bush gender gap, Gergen & Shields, and a Roger Mudd essay. NEWS MAKER INTERVIEW

MR. MacNeil: Tonight foreign policy is one major focus on the Republican Convention and we have with us a key figure in shaping Reagan Administration foreign policy, Secretary of State George Shultz. Although not a convention speaker, Mr. Shultz is in New Orleans having a look after finishing a series of visits to overseas countries that have taken him around the world in a lot less than 80 days. He joins us for News Maker Interview. Mr. Secretary, welcome.

GEORGE SHULTZ, Secretary of State: Thank you.

MR. MacNeil: Were you asked to speak at the convention and refused because you didn't think it appropriate?

GEORGE SHULTZ, Secretary of State: No. I wasn't asked, but I think that it's probably betterfor the Secretary of State not to. But I'm a Republican, so I'm here and I'm supporting the ticket.

MR. MacNeil: Good. The big foreign policy speech is being given tonight by Jeane Kirkpatrick. How do you feel to have the Reagan/Shultz foreign policy record defended by a darling of the conservative right?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: Well, she did a great job in the 1984 convention and I expect she'll do a great job again.

MR. MacNeil: President Reagan said last night in his speech here that George Bush was a man who was not afraid to speak his mind. And he said that in the context of foreign policy. How has he shown that?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: Well, I don't know of course what he has said to the President privately, but I do know that he prefers to make his points privately to the President rather than get into a general argument in a large group. I've had many private conversations, however, with the Vice President and he's very thoughtful and constructive. I might say he's not just a talker, he's a doer, and there have been quite a number of instances where he has made a major contribution personally by going and doing something to our foreign policy objectives.

MR. MacNeil: For example.

SECRETARY SHULTZ: Well, the President mentioned one last night. In 1983, the year in which missiles were deployed in Europe, a very sensitive time there as we were in the midst of the INF negotiations in that stage, and it was essential that they be deployed, the Vice President undertook a trip through European capitals and was very successful in, on the one hand, persuading them to put missiles in, and on the other hand, assuring them that if the Soviet Union were to agree to eliminate their SS-20 missiles we would do the same, in other words, the zero option, did a very effective job there.

MR. MacNeil: Take the arms sales to Iran question, which most people consider the biggest foreign policy blunder of the Reagan Administration. You advised the President against doing that. Mr. Bush has said he supported it. Does that give you confidence in his judgment in foreign policy?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: Well, I think that he didn't support selling arms for hostages. What he supported I believe, as he would think of it, was an opening to Iran and of course, I think that would be an important thing to have happen if in good time it takes place. I'm sure it will.

MR. MacNeil: But you and Secretary Weinberger saw from the beginning that it would be a dangerous thing to do because of the implications down the line if it came out, as you said very forcefully during the Congressional hearings, and he did not see that.

SECRETARY SHULTZ: I believed right from the beginning that it was not a good thing to do but people's judgments vary on that.

MR. MacNeil: But you'd have confidence turning over the foreign policy of this country to a man who made that judgment?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: Well, it's not a question of turning over. It's a question of seeing what he has done and how he goes about thinking of the subject. I gave one example. I could give a number of other examples in which he has pitched in very effectively. I think a person has to be more than somebody who just sits back and says, yes, it would be a good idea to do this or a good idea to do that. It has to be somebody who can be engaged and sit opposite another person and persuade them and impress them of his strength and of the force of arguments.

MR. MacNeil: Let's take something very close to your heart at the moment, which is the -- what's regarded as the biggest foreign policy success of the Reagan Administration, the opening with Moscow, the conclusion of the arms treaty. Mr. Bush has sounded considerably more reserved, less enthusiastic, much more cautious about the possibilities of ending the cold war than you and President Reagan have. Is he the man and the running mate he's chosen today, Senator Quayle, who was a strong opponent of the INF Treaty during the early stages of the debate in the Senate, is that the team to hand your and Mr. Reagan's legacy to at this moment in history which could be a turning point in relations?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: I think it's very important in these relationships to keep a strong foot on third base, so that's appropriate, to look at the reality, to be ready to move forward, but also to be looking carefully at what's going on. I might say Sen. Quayle in the end voted for ratification of the INF Treaty, and I had the opportunity to be part of George Bush's delegation in Moscow at the time of the Chernenko funeral. These are always derided, but what people don't understand is those are big international meetings and we had about an hour and a half meeting with Mr. Gorbachev on that occasion. It was the first major meeting. And one of the things that I noticed and was rather impressed with was the way the Vice President handled the subject of human rights with Gorbachev. He hit it very hard and as a matter of fact, when Gorbachev came back and said, well, maybe we should have some sort of a way of you complain about what we're doing and we' complain about what you're doing and perhaps we can get somewhere that way. And right on the spot, George said, of course, we're ready for that and interestingly, we've made a huge amount of progress in that field, and it's been based on that fundamental idea.

MR. MacNeil: When we talked in Moscow at the end of the May/June Summit, you said you left the door open for another Reagan/Gorbachev meeting if there were sufficient progress on the Strategic Arms Treaty. Can you report any progress?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: Yes, there has been progress, but I can't say that we're that close to finishing it. You'd have to finish it. But there's been good progress this summer and it's, all of these verification matters and the questions of how you count the number of air launch cruise missiles per carrier of those missiles and things like that, they're extremely important "details" and extremely difficult to wrestle to the ground. So that process is going on along with some other things. I don't know just how long it's going to take.

MR. MacNeil: Is it more possible now than it seemed at the end of the Moscow Summit that it could be resolved before the end of this Administration?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: I wouldn't like to make a prediction, but I do know that the President is pushing hard to get it done if it can be done. No one wants a treaty done on the basis of let's get it finished in time. Everybody wants a good treaty. And if we can get a good treaty by the time of the end of the President's term, certainly we'll want to do that. But it will have to be a good treaty.

MR. MacNeil: Is a treaty possible before the November election?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: Well, anything is possible, but I think it's a long ways away.

MR. MacNeil: You spoke when we talked in Moscow about the pressures that summit exercise on the dynamics of the negotiations. Do elections exercise pressure of another kind? Are you all feeling now the pressure? Because it would take, even a child would understand that if you got another treaty right now, it would be a tremendous boost to the Republicans in the election.

SECRETARY SHULTZ: No, we're not feeling any pressure at all and one of the things that I've always felt very good about in working for President Reagan and Vice President Bush in this regard is that they will drive to get something like this accomplished, but you feel no pressure as the negotiator to do it or else. I remember back before the Washington Summit, I went to Moscow and there was a general expectation that we'd set a date for the summit. And Mr. Gorbachev didn't seem quite ready and I think he sort of half expected me to argue. And I didn't. I just walked away. And I knew the President wanted to get a date set. So I called him before my next meeting where I could have turned it around. I said, well, Mr. President, here's the situation, here's what I did. I just left it there. And he said, you did the right thing. And that's his attitude all along. He wants to get it done, if possible, but he's not going to get pressured.

MR. MacNeil: Let's turn in the few minutes we have to Central America. There are reports that most of the Contras have pulled out of Nicaragua with their families and everybody to Honduras. Can you confirm that that is the case now?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: They have certainly come out, a lot of them have, not all, but it's very discouraging for them, because the United States -- and here I have to put the finger on a vote in the House of Representatives very much driving by the leadership of the House of Representatives to deny further assistance to the people fighting for freedom and independence in Nicaragua. It just mystifies me why that shouldn't be supported but the fact is the United States has not been willing to give that support and so people are leaving. It's a tragedy.

MR. MacNeil: Well, the Democrats were willing to give humanitarian aid although holding back on more military aid and yet, the President has now and the Republicans have not supported that. Will you advise in the end, will you advise the President to support that as better than nothing for the Contras?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: Well, some money is better than nothing. On the other hand, the money gets tied up in knots, so that it's hard to deliver. It's almost as though there is a kind of guerrilla warfare against really helping people to get out and go ahead and do what they want, which is to fight for the freedom of independence of their country.

MR. MacNeil: President Arias told us on this program just after you talked to him that he still thought that more military aid to the Contras was the worst way to get the Sandinistas to resume negotiations on a peaceful solution there. You don't believe that still.

SECRETARY SHULTZ: Well, I just observe that the major breakthrough at Escoupulis that President Arias had a big hand in came as the freedom fighters were getting strong support from the United States, and were being very effective in Nicaragua. And in that setting, the Nicaraguan Communists decided to make a reasonable agreement. I think you have to confront them with facts that they have a hard time with unless they change.

MR. MacNeil: Given the political situation here, the political polarization of that issue in Congress and in Washington, Contra aid, is it all over now with the Contras do you think?

SECRETARY SHULTZ: It will never be over with many of them. They feel very strongly about what they're doing and at the same time I think as far as the fight for freedom and democracy in Central America, we can't give up on that. And I might say here is something where we and President Arias see absolutely eye to eye. He's been very clear that a continued existence of a Communist state in Central America is just not a stable situation. He's been very forthright and clear on that and I agree with him entirely on that point.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Secretary, thank you very much for joining us. Enjoy your stay in New Orleans.

SECRETARY SHULTZ: Thank you. FOCUS - '88 - WINNING TEAM?

MR. LEHRER: Dan Quayle of Indiana won the big prize. He is George Bush's choice to run on the Republican ticket for Vice President of the United States. As informed luck would have it, it was the Indiana delegation Elizabeth Brackett chose to profile during the Republican Convention. We thus begin our coverage of the Quayle selection with her report from the happiest group of Republicans in New Orleans tonight.

ELIZABETH BRACKETT: All night long through the hoopla, the cheering, the sentimental appearance of Ronald Reagan, Sen. Dan Quayle and his wife sat on the floor of the Indiana delegation. He wasn't a delegate but he couldn't help attracting attention. All night long he answered reporters' questions about whether or not he would get a phone call from George Bush asking him to be Vice President.

REPORTER: Senator, why does it make any sense for George Bush to pick someone like you over major figures like Bob Dole or Jack Kemp who have experience in that field?

SEN. QUAYLE: Well, George Bush is going through that thought process right now. He is thinking --

MS. BRACKETT: Much of the night was also spent talking with friends and advisers about when that phone call might come, but Daniels told them even though some staffers have already been selected for the next Vice President, even they don't know who the choice will be.

MITCH DANIELS, Indianapolis, Indiana: I don't have the faintest clue. They say it's like being in the waiting room while your wife delivers, you know. You don't know what that baby is going to look like.

MS. BRACKETT: Quayle's Indiana boosters say his good looks and appeal to women are part of the reason he would help the ticket. As the convention ended last night, Quayle said he was still in the dark about his chances.

MS. BRACKETT: Can you give me a quick assessment of your chances tonight for the Vice Presidency?

SEN. QUAYLE: I really don't know.

MS. BRACKETT: This morning, Quayle was making the rounds of other state delegations sounding very much like a candidate.

SEN. DAN QUAYLE, GOP Vice-Presidential Candidate: 16 million people today have a job that didn't have a job in 1982 because of low taxes, and when George Bush is elected President, he is not going to raise those taxes, and I can tell you that Mike Dukakis will.

MS. BRACKETT: And Quayle remained coolly non-committal to assembled reporters.

SEN. DAN QUAYLE: Well, I'm not going to get into what I'm going to pick to the ticket. George Bush knows what I will bring to the ticket, and if that's what he needs on the ticket, so be it. If he wants to go with somebody else, so be. I'll live with the decision to be on the ticket and I'll live with the decision not being on the ticket.

MS. BRACKETT: Quayle's sudden rise may have surprised reporters, but it was not surprise to Indiana delegates. They had been pushing him from the moment they got off the plane. And when they heard the news at their hotel this afternoon, they were ecstatic.

ILZE KOCH, Portland, Indiana: My heart is pounding. I am very happy. I had no qualms. There never was a race. I knew it. I knew it all the time. Deep in the heart I knew it, and we've worked and he's worked for it and he deserves it and he's going to be the greatest thing that's ever happened to this country. I know.

GOV. ROBERT ORR, [R] Indiana: He is a conservative, there isn't any question about that, and I think the conservatives of America will feel comfortable with him. But he also has the knack of being able to join forces with the people of other persuasions to get things done, as he did when he invited Ted Kennedy to be the co-author of the Jobs Training Partnership Act.

ROBERT POOR, Cloverdale, Indiana: I've died and gone to heaven. What more could we ask for? I mean, this will help, not only help George Bush tremendously but it will help us in Indiana, I mean, with our Governor race. You know, this group here is going to float right out of New Orleans come Friday. It's great. I love it. I love it.

MS. BRACKETT: For Indiana, convention week was already a stunning success.

MR. LEHRER: And here to talk more about Dan Quayle are Illinois Congresswoman Lynn Martin, Co-Chair of the Bush Campaign and Vice- Chair of the House Republican Conference, and Congressman Dan Burton of Indiana. Congressman, you just heard the folk from Indiana, said, I knew it all the time. Did you know it all the time? Did you know Dan Quayle was going to get selected?

REP. DAN BURTON, [R] Indiana: I had a lot of doubts like a lot of my colleagues until we got to New Orleans, and I started watching you folks and the national media and all of a sudden I thought they're very bright people, very perceptive, they're going to pick Dan Quayle.

MR. LEHRER: Who are bright people? You mean the Bush people are bright people?

REP. BURTON: Well, I think they had Werthlan on television extolling the virtues of Dan Quayle, and at that moment, I had a feeling that he might be picked.

MR. LEHRER: Congresswoman Martin, when did you know it was Dan Quayle?

REP. LYNN MARTIN, Bush Campaign Co-Chair: Well, I knew this afternoon. It's an odd thing. I'm going to introduce him to the convention. I've been a little more eager since it's harder to write a speech, I will say, when you don't know the candidate, so I've got a couple of days --

MR. LEHRER: You were going to introduce whoever the Vice- Presidential candidate was. I see.

REP. LYNN MARTIN: It's kind of nice now to know.

MR. LEHRER: Did you write a speech with fill in the blank?

REP. LYNN MARTIN: Yes, you know. Here's my good friend forever and I adore him beyond all. I just said to Dan I'm looking forward to hearing some of those stories that really give a personal impact from him, and we're going to talk later. Dan Quayle and I have worked on some budget legislation. Some of that's stuff that doesn't make television because it's very archane, and I was impressed always with dealing with the eccentric, the queer things in the budget process. That's not something you do if you're looking for press really, because it's not something you can explain in less than two hours and put everyone to sleep and Dan and I not only worked on it. He actually could laugh about it, which strikes me as saying he has a wonderful sense of humor, he's able to keep things in perspective, so it will be fun to introduce him.

MR. LEHRER: What kind of choice do you think he is?

REP. LYNN MARTIN: We'll see, and I say that in the best of all possible senses. I for my own reasons thought a Midwesterner would be a reasonable candidate, especially because of the drought, to have someone on the ticket that would have some identification with the agony of what this horrible summer has meant. I think it would be an advantage to George Bush who because he's from either Texas or the East, and I'll claim both, is not perceived as much of an expert on agriculture. And certainly Michael Dukakis who came to my area and told them to raise endive, you know, hardly gets the heartbeat going. So I think in that sense and because he is an energetic campaigner, I think he's going to be in every part of the country. We're going to get to know Dan Quayle very well and Dan Burton says we're going to like him a lot.

REP. BURTON: Yes, you are.

MR. LEHRER: Is that right? Why?

REP. BURTON: I have no reservations about Dan Quayle. I think the American people are going to take him to their hearts like they did Jack Kennedy. I really think he's going to be a tremendous asset to the ticket. His abilities are going to be very well known in a short time, his values, the way he presents himself. I think they're going to really like him.

MR. LEHRER: You know, joining us now is Indiana's Senior Senator, Republican Richard Lugar. He's in our sky box at the Superdome. Senator, welcome.

SEN. RICHARD LUGAR, [R] Indiana: Thank you very much.

MR. LEHRER: What do you think about your colleague being chosen for this job?

SEN. RICHARD LUGAR, [R] Indiana: Well, this is a tremendously exciting personal experience. Dan Quayle and I have had joint offices in Indiana. We've worked together I think closer than any other two members of the Senate, and so my heart goes out to Dan and Marilyn for the achievements they already have and for the great campaign they're going to give.

MR. LEHRER: What about his age? He's 41 years old. Is that too young to be Vice President of the United States?

SEN. LUGAR: No, I don't think so. My guess is the Vice President determined that the criteria ought to be a generation that was new. He talked about the idea of the future and Dan Quayle is clearly a vigorous campaigner, someone who has brought intellectual inspiration to the human resources issues, as well as to national defense, and it just seems to me that if you head toward the future, toward a youthful candidate, Dan Quayle is a natural.

MR. LEHRER: Congresswoman Martin, let me ask you this. As somebody from the highest levels of the Bush Campaign, why was Quayle chosen?

REP. LYNN MARTIN: Well, there really is an easy answer in this one, because that's who George Bush thought should be on the ticket.

MR. LEHRER: The youth bit?

REP. MARTIN: I think it was certainly part of it. I think certainly heading not just the 90's, but the 21st century, that kind of activity, but there was something else that was happening during this whole process. There was strength in every candidate. This doesn't diminish Bob Dole or Elizabeth Dole or Jack Kemp or Pete Domenici or Carroll Campbell. Each one of them had strength, but I think partially an infectious grin and I think that matters. He's Midwestern. He's Midwestern. Do you know what that means?

MR. LEHRER: Yes, ma'am.

REP. MARTIN: We know what it means in America. I mean, it really is the heart and the head work together and Indiana -- and I must say this from Illinois, its reputation for good government -- I think that all was part of the process to say this is the kind of yes younger American we can present to the public.

MR. LEHRER: Robin gave me a profile of Sen. Quayle that I read right before I came in here a while ago, and the article said, "He has sunny good looks and a cheerful temperament." Sen. Lugar, will you go along with that?

SEN. LUGAR: Yes, on both counts, absolutely right.

MR. LEHRER: Beyond that, what would you say his strengths areto be a Vice Presidential candidate?

SEN. LUGAR: He has really a great deal of vitality and really an extraordinary campaign ability. I think that was evident on the vote today, the vigor with which he approached his assignment.

MR. LEHRER: What do you feel his main strength is, Congressman Burton?

REP. BURTON: Well, I think he appeals to young people, I think he appeals to women.

MR. LEHRER: Is it because of his age?

REP. BURTON: No. I think it's a multitude of reasons. His age. John F. Kennedy was young. He's good looking. He's very articulate. He's up on the issues. He sponsored the Job Training Partnership Act, which is going to help him with labor and women. I think he's just a very very good choice and he's going to be very good for the ticket.

MR. LEHRER: What about the theory, Congresswoman Martin, that one of the reasons George Bush went for Dan Quayle was because he was an unknown, a young person, he essentially becomes Bush man, rather than carries a lot of other political, national political baggage with him as all those other wonderful people you named a minute ago did.

REP. MARTIN: Well, not bad. I mean, that's why -- very good. You should be on TV and be a commentator. I think that's very perceptive. And if you don't mind, I'm going to use that too. I think there is something to that, not because Dan Quayle is unformed. I mean, 41, we're not talking about a 12 year old. We're talking about someone who's had an incredible wealth of experience. I mean, to win those kind of elections by 41 tells you something else about that person. So I think what you did have is somebody who's gone through the Reagan revolution, somebody who has been there on very difficult issues, but someone who still really is a clarion call to the future and for the Republican Party that wants to be viewed as the party of progress, that's certainly an important part.

MR. LEHRER: Congressman Burton.

REP. BURTON: He'll have vigor and he'll be a team player.

MR. LEHRER: What do you mean by that, a team player in that --

REP. BURTON: I think he'll speak his piece but I think he will be one that was like George Bush with Ronald Reagan. I think he'll talk to the President, President Bush, very candidly and private, but outside the confines of the Oval Office, I think he'll be a good team player.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Lugar, a difficult question. His background is not similar to George Bush's in a national sense, but it is, I would imagine, from an Indiana sense. He comes from wealthy parents, does he not, people who own some newspapers, prosperous background, good education, and all of that? Do you think that's an asset, a liability, or do you think it just doesn't mean anything?

SEN. RICHARD LUGAR, [R] Indiana: Well, let me just try to correct that impression to begin with. I heard off the bat that he came from one of the wealthiest families in the country and that he, himself, is wealthy. Dan is the grandson of Eugene Pulliam, who was a great publisher in Indiana, a wealthy family. But Dan and Marilyn and their three children live in middle class circumstances. They are regular Americans and to characterize them as blue bloods or millionaires, I think is entirely inaccurate.

MR. LEHRER: How did that get started then?

SEN. LUGAR: Well, it got started simply because the Pulliam Family that owned the papers, they're his grandparents, and, you know, in due course Dan might inherit I suppose some wealth in that situation, but the ethics returns that he files along with the rest of us show at least a net worth that is not in the million dollar category at all, and I think, you know, probably the press ought to direct themselves at least to those facts he's supplied.

MR. LEHRER: Congressman Burton, do you want to add anything to that?

REP. BURTON: The only thing I would add is that we in Indiana are very proud and we think he's going to be a tremendous Vice President.

MR. LEHRER: Congresswoman Martin, how is he going to help or affect, let's put it that way, remove help, affect George Bush's gender gap problem?

REP. MARTIN: Well, if the gender gap were just an easy issue, one issue, not one person would do it, and if it was just the case of a woman candidate, Walter Mondale with Geraldine Ferraro would have taken more than one state. What Dan Quayle is going to be looked at by women and men alike is how could he step into the Presidency, what balance he brings to the ticket. But I will say this as someone who likes Dan Quayle and is looking forward to getting to know him better, it's still going to matter what's at the top of the ticket. People are going to pick George Bush or they're going to pick Michael Dukakis, and the Vice Presidential race although important, and I in no way diminish it, ultimately you vote for that top man, for George Bush.

MR. LEHRER: Don't go away you all. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: There are polls that show that one of George Bush's major electorate problems to be women. The phrase makers have christened it "the gender gap". And it is where we go next, first with this report by Judy Woodruff. FOCUS - '88 - GENDER GAP?

JUDY WOODRUFF: When George Bush went before a convention of businesswomen a few weeks ago and endorsed a costly new child care proposal, he made a major break from his own Administration and from much of the Republican Party. Bush also brought up problems hardly mentioned during the Reagan White House years.

VICE PRESIDENT BUSH [July 24, 1988]: Some women own businesses, have extraordinarily difficulty, a lot of difficulty getting credit. And I think credit decisions should be based on merit, not on gender, and we have laws that should be enforced to that effect.

MS. WOODRUFF: It was the most visible effort yet by Bush to do something about the trouble he's in with women voters. Almost every poll done since the race has narrowed to Bush and Michael Dukakis shows Bush running somewhat behind among men, but among women, the numbers are nothing short of remarkable, and they are bad news for George Bush. A Wall Street Journal/NBC Poll done in late July showed a 27 point gap between the huge advantage women voters gave Dukakis and the relatively small advantage he got with men. These numbers are important because some experts believe as many as 10 million more women will go to the polls this November than men, enough to tip the balance if women vote very differently from men. Politically active women say there are some very good reasons Bush is having the problems he is.

IRENE NATIVIDAD, President, National Women's Political Caucus: You are seeing 7 1/2 years of women suffering cuts in social programs. This is an Administration that cut school lunch programs, that cut aid to college students, that cut a lot of social programs that people took for granted as being part of being American. And women don't view those cuts positively. They view these years as years of trying to hold on to what little bit we had.

MS. WOODRUFF: Irene Natividad is President of the Bipartisan National Women's Political Caucus. She says women feel more vulnerable, whatever Republicans say about how much the economy has improved.

IRENE NATIVIDAD: This is not a time of mourning in America for a lot of women. 80 percent of women in this country earn less than $20,000 a year. So for them, this economic recovery has not borne fruit. Many of them just make it day to day.

MS. WOODRUFF: Even Republicans like Pollster Linda DiVall agree that women have a different perspective on the economy.

LINDA DIVALL, Republican Pollster: It's not enough to say the rate of inflation has gone down over the last seven years. When women are paying the medical bills, when they're buying the groceries, when they're buying the clothes, when they're paying the second car insurance, those prices have done nothing but go up over the last seven years.

MS. WOODRUFF: Public opinion polls reveal that Bush faces his worst problems with women who work outside the home. A poll done in late June, before the euphoria of the Democratic Convention, showed that among white married women who work outside the home Dukakis already had fully twice the support Bush did, 61 percent to 31 percent. Bill Hamilton, whose Democratic polling firm came up with those numbers, says that women whose families are in the middle income brackets don't feel all the benefits of the currently relatively healthy economy.

BILL HAMILTON, Democratic Pollster: They are still living up to their means. They are not saving very much. They're afraid that in the future because of largely the federal deficit, although they do not personalize it that way, that somebody is going to have to pay the piper, and that's what concerns them. Women generally have looked into the future and looked for an economic stability in the future. They don't see that with this Administration's policies.

MS. WOODRUFF: Conservative Public Opinion Analyst Karlyn Keene also sees very substantial differences between men and women's perceptions of the country's economic future.

KARLYN KEENE, Public Opinion Analyst: Women are much less confident than men. You can hold age constant, you can hold income constant, a woman making over $50,000 a year is much less confident than a man at that point.

MS. WOODRUFF: Keene says in addition to insecurity about the future of the economy, there are two other major factors that are hurting women's view of George Bush.

KARLYN KEENE: Women now favor a stronger role for government than do men. You can ask men and women about something like catastrophic health insurance. Both favor it, but women favor it much more strongly than men. You can ask also questions about attitudes toward risk, whether you want a nuclear power plant in your neighborhood, and women consistently express the more risk averse posture.

MS. WOODRUFF: Polls show that all these factors, including women's greater aversion to risk or the use of force, contribute to problems Bush is having among upper income women, many of whom consider themselves Republicans.

WILLIAM HAMILTON, Democratic Pollster: They catalogue a whole series of issues from foreign policy, foreign trade, day care, not the kind of economic opportunity they expect, out of the Ronald Reagan Administration. At the same time, they're feeling that George Bush will continue those, that he's not strong enough to make the kind of change they expect this country to make over a period of time.

MS. WOODRUFF: Even so, Republicans are not ready to concede the women's vote to the Democrats. Maryland's State Senator, Ellen Sauerbrey, who is a delegate, blames the polls on early misimpressions.

STATE SEN. ELLEN SAUERBREY, [R] Maryland: I think it's really that Dukakis at this point hashad a very favorable environment. He's been running. He's been winning elections. He's had a lot of press attention. I've even heard him called a conservative, which I think is ludicrous if you look at his record.

MS. WOODRUFF: Linda DiVall, who is helping the Bush Campaign with some of its polling, concedes Bush strategists were caught off guard by the problems with women voters.

LINDA DIVALL, Republican Pollster: I think they thought they could go back, sit back, plan this convention, plan their general election strategy for 60 days and never really thought of how do we translate June and July into an extension of the general election campaign.

MS. WOODRUFF: Deborah Steelman, the Domestic Policy Director for the Bush Campaign, says it can make up for lost time simply by addressing issues from a woman's perspective.

DEBORAH STEELMAN, Bush Domestic Issue Director: We've got to talk about the economy in very strong personal ways, rather than simply abstractly refer to 17 million jobs created. We have to talk about more families are bringing home higher levels of pay and have higher quality of living than ever before.

MS. WOODRUFF: Privately, women close to the Bush Campaign say that up until recently, it has not been sensitive to how women view Bush. Steelman predicts that will change.

DEBORAH STEELMAN: Men have identified with many different parts in his background, with his war hero status, with his directorship of the CIA. Those elements aren't as easy to pick up on for women. They just don't see it as well as men. We're going to bring other elements of George Bush far more to the front in the next three months, George Bush's tremendous family, his generous nature. I wish every woman could sit for just a half hour with George Bush and know who he is as I have had the chance to do. When those kind of elements come to the forefront, we're very confident that the gender gap will close.

MS. WOODRUFF: Steelman worked for months on the child care proposal unveiled last month. She promises more unveilings this fall, all aimed at bringing the women voters on board. Republican Congresswoman Nancy Johnson says that she is optimistic the gender gap can be closed just by focusing on the economy.

REP. NANCY JOHNSON, [R] Connecticut: The solution is that we help women to see that economic growth has met more jobs and more career opportunities and that they have been the primary beneficiaries of that opening up and of that growth. Furthermore, if we have a recession, they will be, because they were the last in, will often be the first out.

MS. WOODRUFF: Irene Natividad, however, says the problem is more complex, that women see an Administration with what she calls antiquated ideas about women.

IRENE NATIVIDAD, President, National Women's Political Caucus: You had a President who said that one of the reasons for the high unemployment earlier on was because there were a lot of women in the work force. You had Don Regan make jokes about women not understanding rates and frankly, there was a Vice President who talked about kicking a little ass during the Ferraro debate. And people remember that.

MR. LEHRER: We return now to Congresswoman Martin, Congressman Burton, Sen. Lugar, who's in the sky box. And there he is joined by our regular political analysis team of Gergen & Shields. That's David Gergen, Editor of U.S. News & World Report, and Mark Shields, Syndicated Political Columnist with The Washington Post. Congresswoman Martin, does the Bush Campaign feel it's on top of the gender gap problem now?

REP. LYNN MARTIN, Bush Campaign Co-Chair: Well, I hope not. That would be an arrogant thing to say. And the Bush Campaign is not arrogant. What they feel they're doing is beginning to not just complete programs and talk about programs, but to compete with the Democrats on a more even keel. And I'd like to give a fast example. Everything that was said in that, I mean, Republicans just don't get up and say, hey, there's no gender gap. Of course, there is. And part of it is a language difference. If you are a young woman, you're a single mother, you're out there in the work force, or married, out there in the work force, but still the importance of your family, you work, in effect, two full-time jobs, at home, and then out of the work force, you are more frightened. So when Republicans talk about the economy and they make it sound like it it's for Lee Iacocca to make 14 gadzillion dollars, that means nothing to women. But I think that shows women are pretty smart actually. How does that come down? And we have to do more and more of that. Women are willing to postpone things for children. I mean, I can't say that often enough. Unlike male voters, they'll do almost anything to ensure that their children's lives are better. When Republicans talk about a strong defense - - and I'm on the Armed Services Committee, so I suppose I'm a Hawk -- we've got to say why there's a strong defense, and so does George Bush. It's not to give a new plane that's hot. It's not to make, you know, a war movie. It's to make sure the children don't ever have to go to war. And I think as Republicans, as much as I like to blame Democrats and do, we've got to develop a style. Republicans are too often comfortable with talking about football games, and you know, we're going to be the quarterback. Guess what? Women aren't as crazy about football. And so --

MR. LEHRER: They like quarterbacks.

REP. MARTIN: Well, quarterbacks are all right, but there are other things to life. What I'm suggesting is when you have 10 million more voters and George Bush is very smart and a very sensitive man, and we really haven't seen a lot of that yet, you have to talk in ways and use the kind of metaphors that matter to women. We're all in a changing time. I bet you he can tell you that he's making changes with his own daughters. We're all going through this together. Dan, you know, men and women have a gender gap too, and we're trying to cross it together.

REP. DAN BURTON, [R] Indiana: There's one other thing I'd like to point out and that is as the Dukakis record becomes more apparent to the American people, particularly the women, I think they're going to take a different attitude towards him. When he turns loose people like Willy Horton on the street, and you've heard a lot about that, and he rapes a woman and stabs her fiance numerous times and then the Governor of Massachusetts won't even talk to him, that creates a thought or will create a thought in people's minds, particularly women, that here's a man who might turn loose criminals on the street. That's going to affect us adversely.

MR. LEHRER: Let me ask David Gergen, David, what do you think? I mean, do you think that the gender gap is a temporary thing? And what do you think about particularly Congresswoman Martin's theory, that there are ways to go at this? A lot has to do with changing the vocabulary.

DAVID GERGEN, U.S. News & World Report: It has not been temporary for the Republicans in the last half dozen years or so. It really started in the late 70's and it's continued for the Republican Party, and now George Bush faces the same problem. I think there's something inherent about conservatism which appeals more to men than to women. Conservatism essentially says we will open the doors and you walk through them on your own and then make it on your own, and the liberals come and say, hey, look, we're going to look after you with government. And I think men find that inherently a little more appealing, frankly, than women do. But women, I think the Republicans need to make the argument ultimately women are going to be helped more by this. More women are having businesses of their own. The wage gap in this country, women -- at one point when Reagan came into office -- were making 60 cents for every dollar that a man made. That's now up to 65 cents and is moving up. So I think that the Republicans have a harder argument to make but I think that it can be made and I think it's going to take a lot of work. This gender gap could cost George Bush the election unless it's worked out.

MR. LEHRER: Okay. Let's go back to the Quayle question for our few final minutes here. Beginning with you, Mark, what do you think of the Quayle selection?

MARK SHIELDS, Washington Post: I think George Bush had a window of opportunity this week just like Michael Dukakis did in Atlanta. Michael Dukakis had to answer the problem that he was too liberal, a Northeastern kook, chose Lloyd Bentsen, conservative, middle of the road Democrat from Texas. George Bush had to answer the question, the doubts, was he his own man, was he comfortable with talent and strong people around him? Today the jury is more than out. As one of Ronald Reagan's top lieutenants said to me, this is, Dan Quayle was the only man on that list who did not intellectually intimidate George Bush. It is not a strong choice. There are very few Republicans outside the Indiana delegation and his distinguished colleague, Dick Lugar, who are doing handstands today. Sen. Lugar is very, a good friend and very loyal supporter of the Republican Party and Dan Quayle, but let me tell you, the Republicans will tell you they are not thrilled, they are not confident, they are not happy.

MR. LEHRER: David Gergen.

MR. GERGEN: I think it's going to play a little better than that among Republicans. He is a very good choice in one sense. The Republicans felt that after Dukakis chose Bentsen that essentially they chose an older man, a man in mid 60s, and they could play the young card, they could play the generational card, and there's been a big feeling within the Bush camp for a long time if they could get into the baby boom population and bring that group along, Dan Quayle is the first baby boomer on either ticket for either party. He's 41 years old, right at the front edge of the baby boom. I think it's going to play well because he's from the Midwest. I think he is pro life, but I have to tell you, I think it is not going to play as well among the press. There is a feeling among those in the press that he's too young for the job, that he may be inexperienced. You hear the word "light" frequently about him. I think he's going to have prove himself with the press. I do think in contrast to Mark that he's going to play well among a lot of Republicans.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Lugar, are you still there?

SEN. LUGAR: Yes, I certainly am.

MR. LEHRER: Senator, have you talked to any non-Indiana Republicans since this was announced?

SEN. LUGAR: Not too many. No, I've been immersed with our Indiana celebration.

MR. LEHRER: What do you think about the Mark Shields theory, that you folks are doing Indiana handstands, Hoosier handstands, but the rest of the Republican Party may not be?

SEN. RICHARD LUGAR, [R] Indiana: Well, I think that the rest of the Republican Party will get excited about Dan Quayle simply because he's a winner. He's come along in Indiana politics, two terms in the House, two great races for the Senate. On occasion perhaps he was underestimated then as too young and as a person who went out and mastered all the detail, but he's a very quick study, a very vigorous man, and I think for reasons that have already been expressed by the panelists, he does come along as a young person that really gives a boost to this ticket.

MR. LEHRER: Mark, let me ask you. As a quasi member of the press -- what do you think about David's point that the press plays a part in this, that the press may not like Dan Quayle?

MR. SHIELDS: Let me tell you what the Bush people said, and this was, it was all over this city, the one thing we want to be sure of is we're going to have somebody who the press is going to have respect for. That was their litmus test. And certainly in the case of Bob Dole and I think Jack Kemp, maybe less so, but among certain of us in the press who were soft on Jack Kemp, there was a real sense of gravitose, of Alan Simpson most definitely. That was the case of Pete Domenici, there was not of Dan Quayle. Now maybe that's unfair on the press's part. That's something they're going to have to overcome. Let me just say one thing. They've changed the definition of the Vice Presidency in the past 12 years in this country. Americans' public perception of the Vice Presidency has changed. Why? Because Walter Mondale was Vice President for four years and George Bush has been Vice President for eight years. And we now think of the Vice President as an assistant President. We think of someone who can sit in the back of that desk in the Oval Office if necessary. As of tonight, and being fair to Dan Quayle, he does not look comfortable sitting in the Presidential desk.

MR. LEHRER: And Martin, let me ask Lynn Martin to respond to that.

REP. MARTIN: I thought Mark having gone to Notre Dame in Indiana would feel better about an Indianian, but I think we've got to, you know, we do have to see. I think part of what Mark might be saying is that here's someone we don't know. But there is, you know, the song "Getting To Know You", that's what part of the campaign is about. I am not going to disqualify Dan Quayle for being bright, for being able, for being young, for being good looking, and for being able to move into the Vice Presidency. I can hardly wait.

MR. LEHRER: Mark's point was the Presidency --

REP. MARTIN: You mean that the press doesn't like him?

MR. LEHRER: No, no, no, that he cannot see him in the Presidency.

REP. MARTIN: That's what they said about Jack Kennedy. I could swear I heard those words somewhere before, but I don't think they came from Mark Shields.

REP. BURTON: There have been some other young people that have become President at a very young age. Jack Kennedy is one. I think Teddy Roosevelt was another, and they did a pretty good job.

MR. LEHRER: Take that, Shields. Do you want to respond?

MR. SHIELDS: It isn't to do with his age. I'm talking about the perception of the Vice Presidency has been changed. The last two nominees for President of the United States from the two parties came from, in the case of the Democrats, Walter Mondale, who had been an Assistant President. George Bush we hear so much about it and we've come to believe it and we listened to Ronald Reagan tell us last night has bee an Assistant President. Can one think right now of Dan Quayle as an Assistant President? I would say that most people who have covered politics couldn't. Now maybe I'm being unfair --

MR. LEHRER: Is he being unfair, David?

MR. GERGEN: I have to say that he doesn't have the stature of Bob Dole. That doesn't mean he can't prove himself, and I that that's the opportunity -- I don't think he's as experienced as these other fellows --

MR. SHIELDS: Dick Lugar.

MR. GERGEN: And I think there are a lot of folks that feel that Dick Lugar would have been a wonderful Vice Presidential candidate, but I have to tell you beyond that, I think that the Republicans really are trying to play that young card. There are a lot of younger people in this country who have become Republicans in the last few years, much more so than in the past, and they want to bring that group into the party. That's the future of the party. I might add one other thing. We've just been talking about the gender gap. Dan Quayle shows up better on the polls that they've been taking than any other potential candidate. He does very well in Indiana among women and they think -- you know, last night we were talking about George Bush as possibly Gary Cooper. Tonight we're talking about Robert Redford being added to the ticket.

MR. LEHRER: We have to leave it there. And, Sen. Lugar, I'm sure that you are delighted to have gotten the endorsement of Mark Shields here on live television. And with that, we thank all of you very much. Robin. ESSAY - '88 - KEYNOTER KEAN

MR. MacNeil: Finally tonight our Washington Essayist Roger Mudd has some thoughts about the Republicans' keynote speaker.

ROGER MUDD: By all accounts tonight's keynoter should be the envy of every politician in America. After all, there have only been 60 or 70 keynoters throughout history and just since the 1950's have they been seen on national television, what we used to call a coast to coast hookup. So Thomas Kean, the 53 year old Governor of New Jersey, is one of the chosen few. He is considered among the best Governors in the United States today. After 10 years in the State Assembly, he ran for Governor in 1981, promising that New Jersey would no longer be the butt of bad jokes. And indeed, he took the state by the scruff of the neck, built up morale, improved the highway system, started a clean water trust fund, launched an education reform program, and within four years had the Democratic state legislature cheering.

GOV. KEAN: New Jersey stands as strong as it has at any time in our proud history. New Jersey is a leader among states.

MR. MUDD: Re-elected in 1985 with 70 percent of the vote, Kean became a shameless promoter and pitchman for New Jersey. In 1986, on ABC, he was a willing fall guy for undercover vice detectives Joe Piscopo and Eddie Murphy. But Kean, of course, is totally unphased by the indignity. So behold the 1988 Republican keynoter, a popular, successful and innovative Governor, a strong speaker, a graceful and honest politician and a public servant obviously ready for national office, but not this year. And for that, Thomas Howard Kean can blame none other than George Herbert Walker Bush. The genetic match-up is simply too striking for those two men to be on the same ticket at the same time. Look at Tom Kean's pedigree, the son of a Congressman, the grandson of a United States Senator, kin to the Roosevelts, the Fishers, and the Winthrops, he is also a descendant of New Jersey's first Governor, William Livingston. Tom Kean is to the manor born. In fact, the manor, called Liberty Hall, is 400 acres near Livingston, New Jersey. Tom Kean went to St. March Prep School, to Princeton, to Columbia, and he has the telltale upper class East Coast accent.

GOV. KEAN: And New Jersey was covered by berries and beaches, not Benigans and burger stands.

ROGER MUDD: It all adds up to more blue blood than the Republicans dare try to carry this year, particularly against the first generation Greek. But isn't it an ironic twist that the future of one of the Republican Party's brightest and finest names really depends on the defeat of George Bush? RECAP

MR. LEHRER: Again the major stories of this Tuesday, George Bush arrived in New Orleans and announced Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle was his choice for Vice Presidential running mate. And the U.S. trade deficit jumped to $12.5 billion in June. The report sent the price of the dollar down on international currency markets. Good night, Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Good night, Jim. That's the Newshour from New Orleans tonight. We will be back tomorrow night. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.