The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening this Veterans Day Holiday. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight: Our summary of the news; an update of the two Washington sniper trials; the story from Louisiana on a governors race that will make history no matter who wins; a look at the new options on using wireless telephones; some perspective on the push to make Iraqis responsible for their own security; and a report on fixing the Tomb of the Unknowns at Arlington National Cemetery, along with an excerpt from the Veterans Days ceremony held there today.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: President Bush today promised the growing U.S. casualties in Iraq will not be in vain. He paid tribute to the war dead, on this Veterans' Day, and laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknowns at Arlington National Cemetery. He told the crowd, "the loss is terrible," but the cause is "good and just." In a later speech, the president insisted the United States would stay the course.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Two years into the war on terror, the will and resolve of America are being tested in Afghanistan and in Iraq. Again the world is watching. Again, we will be steadfast. We will finish the mission we have begun, period. ( Applause )

JIM LEHRER: Also today, Mr. Bush signed a law doubling the tax- free death benefit for families of U.S. soldiers. It will now be $ 12,000. He also signed a bill to create new national cemeteries for veterans. The U.S. administrator in Iraq, Paul Bremer, was called back to Washington today. He immediately went to the White House for unspecified consultations. It followed the worst week of U.S. losses in Iraq, since the fall of Saddam Hussein. In Iraq today, a roadside explosion killed six Iraqis in Basra. And a blast in Baghdad wounded four others. The top U.S. Commander in Iraq warned today his forces mean to "get pretty tough" with the attackers. Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez also insisted the insurgents would ultimately fail. He told a Baghdad news conference: The General also said about 200 foreigner fighters are active in Iraq. He said it's unclear if any of those captured so far have links to al-Qaida.

LT. GEN. RICARDO SANCHEZ: As we have continued to refine and interrogate, we have not been able to establish definitively that they were Al-Qaida members. We believe that there is, in fact, a linkage. If nothing more than, of course, ideology and then also some training and possibly some financial linkages that exist.

JIM LEHRER: Sanchez said intelligence on the insurgents has improved lately. But he said many Iraqis still believe Saddam Hussein will return to power, so they're afraid to cooperate. Saudi Arabia said today there have been no arrests yet in a deadly car bombing on Saturday, but it was widely reported a number of people had been questioned. The attack killed at least 17 people at a housing compound in Riyadh. More than 120 were hurt. Most of the victims were Arabs. An Arabic magazine in London reported today, that Al-Qaida had claimed responsibility in an e-mail. It said the housing compound was targeted because the Arabs there worked and mixed with Americans. Iran acknowledged today it has made plutonium, a key step in building nuclear weapons. But a top Iranian diplomat said the amount was so small, it was insignificant. On Monday, wire service accounts said the U.N. Nuclear agency found evidence of the plutonium, but the reports said there is no evidence Iran has actually tried to build a bomb. Common pain, from headaches to arthritis, is costing U.S. employers more than $ 60 billion a year. The finding was reported today in the Journal of the American Medical Association. "It's based on a survey of nearly 29,000 workers in a variety of professions. Most of the cost results from sub-par work and not absenteeism. In all, the study says one in eight workers is in pain and losing productive time. On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 18 points to close under 9740. The NASDAQ fell nearly 11 points to close below 1931. Actor Art Carney has died. A funeral home in Old Saybrook, Connecticut confirmed today he passed away on Sunday. Carney gained fame as Ed Norton, sidekick to Jackie Gleason on the classic television show the Honeymooners. That role earned him five Emmy Awards. In 1974, he won the Oscar for best actor in the film "Harry and Tonto." Art Carney was 85 years old. That's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to the Washington sniper trials, a most unusual governors race in Louisiana, a next step for wireless phones, turning security over to the Iraqis, plus a story about-- and a ceremony at-- the Tomb of the Unknowns.

UPDATE SNIPER TRIALS

JIM LEHRER: Gwen Ifill has the sniper update.

GWEN IFILL: Jury selection for the trial of 18-year-old alleged sniper, Lee Boyd Malvo, has now begun in Chesapeake, Virginia. The trial of his alleged accomplice, John Allen Muhammad, has been underway for three weeks in nearby Virginia Beach. The men are on trial for two of ten murders that took place during a three-week killing spree in the Washington, D.C. area last October. They are also suspects in five other murder cases. For an update on these trials, we're joined by Sari Horwitz, an investigative reporter at the "Washington Post." She is the co-author of the book, "sniper: Inside the hunt for the killers who terrorized the nation." Welcome, Sari.

SARI HORWITZ: Thank you, Gwen.

GWEN IFILL: Let's start with the John Allen Muhammad case. That is the one in which the prosecution has now rested. What is the case that they were making against him.

SARI HORWITZ: It's interesting the juxtaposition of these two trials is fascinating because they're on parallel tracks but they're very different. In prosecutors in the Muhammad case are arguing that John Muhammad was the captain of the killing team, that he was in control, that he thought of thisplot and really manipulated Lee Boyd Malvo to participate. They brought on much forensic evidence-- DNA, fingerprints found at the crime scene, ballistic evidence that shows that the bullet fragments in the victims' bodies matched the gun that was found in the Chevy Caprice where John Muhammad was when he was arrested. They brought witnesses who saw the Chevy Caprice throughout the Washington area during the sniper attacks. They brought survivor, people that were shot. One man was shot six times and survived. That is how they built their case.

GWEN IFILL: But did they find actual evidence that Muhammad himself did the shooting, where his fingerprints were on the gun?

SARI HORWITZ: His fingerprints were on the gun but the defense team, Muhammad's defense team, two excellent attorneys, they will argue in the defense case that begins tomorrow that nobody saw John Muhammad shoot the gun, that this is a circumstantial case, that under Virginia law they have to prove who pulled the trigger.

GWEN IFILL: You talked about the witnesses and the victims, the people who had been shot. There was some pretty emotional testimony -- for instance the young man who was the young junior high school student who was shot and came and testified.

SARI HORWITZ: Yes. There was wrenching testimony in the last few weeks. Iran Brown was shot. He survived miraculously. He came into court. His mother did not want him to testify. But he came into court. We write a lot about him in our book -- about his case. He came and he said that this has brought him closer to God.

GWEN IFILL: So in the case that the prosecution is trying to make against John Allen Muhammad, at one point he actually took over his own defense and said, "I can defend myself." That didn't last long. That was a dramatic moment.

SARI HORWITZ: It was surreal. John Muhammad said he basically fired his attorneys and said I can do this case by myself. And it's really quintessential John Muhammad, the John Muhammad that Michael Wayne and I learned about in researching this book because this is a man who wants to always be in control. He wanted to control his children. He eventually abducted them and took them to the Caribbean. He wanted to control his wife. He threatened to kill her. He wanted to control Lee Boyd Malvo. In the end he wanted to control his destiny in court.

GWEN IFILL: But ultimately he must have realized he doesn't do it because he decided not to defend himself after a couple days.

SARI HORWITZ: A lot of people think it's easy to be an attorney. He found he didn't know the rules of evidence. He also had a toothache and said he couldn't continue and turned the case back over to his attorneys.

GWEN IFILL: You mentioned his protigi, Lee Malvo. He actually was brought to the courtroom on more than one occasion for what purpose?

SARI HORWITZ: Well, they had witnesses they wanted to put on the stand who saw Malvo at various shootings not in the Washington area but in the Atlanta area and Louisiana. They saw him and they wanted these witnesses so say, yes, that was the man, that was the boy I saw.

GWEN IFILL: He didn't actually speak. He just stood there and then left.

SARI HORWITZ: He would not testify. He just came into the courtroom.

GWEN IFILL: Let's talk about his trial which now begins in a separate location. Both of these by the way change of venue because people figure they couldn't get a fair jury in the immediate Washington area so it's a couple of hours away from here. Lee Malvo, what is the case that the prosecution is prepared to make against him?

SARI HORWITZ: This is going to be a very interesting trial, Gwen, because the prosecutors in this case as opposed to the ones in the John Muhammad case, they're going to say Lee Malvo was very independent thinking. He was a willful participant in this. He wasn't manipulated.

GWEN IFILL: How old was he at the time again?

SARI HORWITZ: Seventeen. But the cornerstone of their case is going to be Malvo's own words. His confession to the police and the FBI after he was arrested -- I don't know if it's going to all come out in court but we have it all in the book. His confession for six hours he spoke to the police and the FBI. Muhammad didn't say a word but Malvo did. The confession is chilling in its detail. It is really the only window we have into the minds of Muhammad and Malvo.

GWEN IFILL: Is it boastful?

SARI HORWITZ: Very. He boasts. He's proud. He brags about what they did. He laughs when talking about the head shots they took. He says there was a purpose to it all. It was all planned out. They did not kill the 13-year-old, Iran Brown, he said, because children were around. But he said they did shooting in Virginia because they knew the police were all working on it in Maryland and D.C. and they weren't in Virginia. They said they killed five people in one day because they knew the police couldn't handle it.

GWEN IFILL: Have there been any questions raised about the defense about the veracity or the usability of this confession?

SARI HORWITZ: The defense has tried to not allow it in court but they have failed in that regard. But they argue that it's all a lie -- that really Malvo is trying to protect his father figure John Muhammad and that this confession for six hours can't be taken seriously, that Lee Malvo was controlled manipulated, indoctrinated brainwashed by John Muhammad.

GWEN IFILL: Ultimately he's pleading insanity.

SARI HORWITZ: Not guilty by reason of insanity. And the jury will have to decide whether it meets the legal standard: Did Lee Malvo know right from wrong? Were his mental problems so severe that he didn't understand what was going on?

GWEN IFILL: One of the most fascinating aspects of this trial is the relationship between these two men even though they are being tried separately, it seems that at the heart of both the defense and the prosecution is what the nature was of this relationship. What can you tell us about that?

SARI HORWITZ: Well, it's enigmatic, Gwen. We spent a lot of time on this in the book because it's the heart of the whole thing. We know that Lee Malvo was searching for a parent figure. He really didn't have a father figure in his life. His mother was never around when he was growing up in Jamaica. He meets John Muhammad in the year 2000 on the island of Antigua and John Muhammad really wanted a child. He was in a custody battle with his wife over his children. And the two bonded. Really from the beginning, you can see the influence. We talk to people on the islands who saw the influence Muhammad had over Malvo who converted from being a 7th day Adventist to... he converted to Islam; he began quoting the Koran. He dropped out of school. He no longer wanted to be with anybody but John Muhammad.

GWEN IFILL: Because both of these cases have gotten so much publicity not only in the Washington area but around the country. Now that the jury selection phase has started for the Malvo trial, are the defense attorneys satisfied that they can indeed get a fair trial?

SARI HORWITZ: I think they're concerned about it. But they have come out and said that they think they have a good jury pool. Today they've chosen more than half of the jury pool. The attorneys in Virginia Beach in the Muhammad trial were able to get a jury that satisfied both sides. So I think that by going 200 miles south, there are people that were not terrorized like we all were in the Washington area.

GWEN IFILL: Sari Horowitz, thank you very much.

SARI HORWITZ: Thank you, Gwen.

FOCUS MAKING HISTORY

JIM LEHRER: Now history in the making in Louisiana. Betty Ann Bowser reports.

SPOKESMAN: This is called mopping it up. This is what LSU is going to do tonight, too.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: When sports fans at Louisiana State throw a tail gate party, they go whole hog with thousands of people flocking to Baton Rouge for a day long extravaganza of music, drinking, and Cajun food.

SPOKESPERSON: Bobby! Bobby!

BETTY ANN BOWSER: But it's also a chance to dabble in the also favored sport of politics, and meet its current Republican star, 32-year-old Bobby Jindal.

BOBBY JINDAL: I'd certainly appreciate your vote in two weeks.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Jindal is drawing a lot of attention in the impending November 15 runoff race for governor, because he's an Indian American who's never been elected to public office before.

GROUP OF PEOPLE: Blanco! Blanco!

BETTY ANN BOWSER: His opponent is 60- year-old Democratic Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Babineux Blanco, an experienced politician and a sixth generation Cajun.

SPOKESPERSON: Nice to see you.

SPOKESPERSON: Hello, how are you doing?

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Whoever wins will make history, because for the first time in Louisiana's rough and tumble politics, a white man will not be elected to the post. L.S.U. Political scientist Wayne Parent, an expert on Louisiana politics, says the race shows how much the social climate in the state has changed.

WAYNE PARENT: We have the first woman ever in a runoff, first Indian American in the united states ever in a runoff for governor. It's quite a change. Louisianans are patting themselves on the back. It's funny. They're not excited about the race, but people are sort of happy about it.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: They're happy about it because it's such a far cry from the old days. 12 years ago the governor's race was all about who was the least worst candidate-- Edwin Edwards, a charismatic Democrat from Cajun country, or David Duke, an avowed supporter of the Ku Klux Klan. Today, both men

are in federal prison serving time on corruption and tax fraud convictions.

SINGING: My home sweet home.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: In the intervening years, Louisiana politics have been relatively quiet and scandal free.

SPOKESMAN: People aren't as mad as they used to be. I mean, 12 years ago, people were mad as hell at corrupt politics, at the economy being in bad shape, and all that stuff. But now people want change, but they don't just want to punch people with their votes. And we ended up with the two candidates that were just sort of acceptable, quiet demeanor, but represented change.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Jindal, who served as an assistant secretary of health and human services in the bush administration, has tried to tie the 20 year political veteran Blanco to the past. He says if he's elected, he'll put that corrupt history to rest.

BOBBY JINDAL: I think that sends a loud message to the entire country that Louisiana's changing it's politics. Look, it's no secret that we're known for having interesting politics. We rank among the bottom five states on many indices when it comes to honesty and integrity in government.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Blanco she has nothing to do with the past.

LT. GOV. KATHLEEN BLANCO: My politics have never been about the politics of the old ways. My politics are creative, innovative. We've always done... everything we've done, we've done it different from the past. We've done it better than our predecessors.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: The two candidates have almost identical positions on the big issues: They are opposed to abortion; they are both conservative Catholics; and both want to bring jobs to the state. So it has come down pretty much to a contest of experience versus youth.

BOBBY JINDAL: I've not been in an elected office before. I'm not a career politician. I'm a problem solver.

LT. GOV. KATHLEEN BLANCO: I have the experience, the background, and the know how to make Louisiana government work for Louisiana people.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: The current run off is the result of a free for all primary with 17 candidates, in which nobody got a majority of the vote. Jindal made the run off with a blitz radio campaign designed to appeal to religious conservatives. Now he's using his problem solver message to appeal to more middle of the road voters, like Baton Rouge businesswoman Tara Brown. As a senior about to retire, Brown worries about the thousands of young people who have fled the state in recent years, because they couldn't find good jobs.

TARA BROWN: He's smart. I think he's got good ideas. I think he can get things done. He's a problem solver, like he says.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: While Jindal has run a heavy TV ad campaign, Blanco has spent much more time one-on-one. She recently took a bus tour through Cajun country, one of the most competitive regions in the state, where she was comfortable speaking French... ( speaking French ) and talking to small audiences.

LT. GOV. KATHLEEN BLANCO: My life has been grounded here in the real world, raising six kids here in south Louisiana.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Blanco often points to Jindal's youth, his inexperience, and tries to paint him as out-of-touch with the problems of real people.

LT. GOV. KATHLEEN BLANCO: Some people crunch numbers, but they're crunching people and services at the same time. And I know these small town problems, I know city problems.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Voter Jonathan Holloway says she has personal appeal.

JONATHAN HOLLOWAY: Once you meet her, you just want to support her. She's that type of person. She's genuine. That's something you have to have that's natural, and she's very natural. And when she gets among the people, she's one of them.

BOBBY JINDAL: How are you? I'm Bobby Jindal.

SPOKESPERSON: Nice to meet you.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: LSU Political Scientist Parent says in the final days of the campaign, the race is close.

WAYNE PARENT: This is one of the few states in the south that is truly a 50/50 state. We've never elected a republican senator, yet we have a republican governor. Bush won, Clinton won. I mean, we go both ways. So that's why this race is so tight.

SPOKESPERSON: How are you?

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Blanco and Jindal are both trying to appeal to the African American vote. State wide polling shows Blanco picking up support among black voters. Meanwhile, Jindal has received a major endorsement from the mayor of New Orleans, who is African American.

JIM LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight, going completely wireless, turning it over to the Iraqis, fixing the Tomb of the Unknowns, and a ceremony there this Veterans Day.

FOCUS CUTTING THE CORD

JIM LEHRER: The coming of another new world of wireless phone service, and to media correspondent Terence Smith.

TERENCE SMITH: A new government decision will make it easier than ever for customers to cut the cord on their land line phones. The Federal Communications Commission ruled yesterday that phone companies must allow customers to transfer their home phone number or business number to a cell phone in the same calling area. Those changes are scheduled to begin on November 24 in the country's 100 largest metropolitan areas. The same changes will go into effect for the rest of the country next May. November 24 is also the deadline for another big change for the nation's 150 million wireless users. That's when customers will be allowed to keep their cell phone numbers when switching wireless carriers. For more on all of this, I'm joined by Rudy Baca, vice president and wireless and media strategist at Precursor, an investment research firm. Mr. Baca, welcome.

RUDY BACA: Thank you.

TERENCE SMITH: Translate this decision for us in terms of what it's going to mean for the consumer.

RUDY BACA: What it means for the consumer is that they've taken the FCC a resource that is traditionally the telephone companies' and given it as a right to the consumer so the consumer now has bargaining power to go to the phone company and say, "what are you going to give me to stay with you? What are you going to give me if I go to you?"

TERENCE SMITH: Does this mean automatically that there will be more people who use cell phones as their exclusive phones?

RUDY BACA: I think it's highly likely to provide incentive to move to cutting the cord completely. Right now it's only about 3 percent which is fairly few, but we have a new generation growing up who never really will have a wire line phone. This gives them every reason to just keep their number and keep their wireless phone.

TERENCE SMITH: 3 percent, what might that rise to if this becomes popular?

RUDY BACA: It's likely to double. There are still some quality differential between wire line and wireless but you have a whole generation that is use to being able to be communicating with others wherever they are, wherever they might happen to be and really don't care if someone is at home or at work. They expect to be able to talk to them.

TERENCE SMITH: What limitations are there on cell phones if you're going on use it as your sole phone either at home or at business? I know that I guess there's some limitations in terms of dialing 911 for example.

RUDY BACA: There are some limitations that are actually becoming much more like the wire line side on 911 because the FCC is also mandating that the wireless carriers provide that emergency location service. It really goes to quality. Anyone who has a wire line phone realizes that usually in natural disasters the phone works because the government has required it to work. It's built to what they call 5- 9s. It's available 99.999 percent of the time. That's one hour out of a year that it's not available. Anyone a wireless phone will tell you that it's available a lot less than that. You can be in the middle of downtown Los Angeles and not get a signal. They have what they call cell phone burping, a terrible term but it means your signal is lost. You suddenly don't have a conversation. That occurs fairly frequently to most cell phone users.

TERENCE SMITH: Is there any prospect that these problems will be overcome, that the technology will improve?

RUDY BACA: Technology is sufficient now to actually improve them. The problem is there isn't enough spectrum in the United States to provide the redundant service to improve that quality. It's a matter of not enough, not a sufficientinventory of that spectrum.

TERENCE SMITH: What about the related decision that the FCC has taken which will allow people to switch wireless carriers and keep their number?

RUDY BACA: That means the consumer then has much more bargaining power than he or she did previously. Basically it was a take it or leave it business. If you wanted the coverage, you went to the provider in that area. Now you say I have a significant resource. This is my number. This is not the phone company's number. What do you want to give me to attract me? A new phone? A free phone? Lower rate plan? What about those termination fees? Are you going to pay those for me some they have much more bargaining power. This is clearly a big win for the consumer.

TERENCE SMITH: Is this going to set off in your view a competitive battle then among wireless providers to either keep the customers they have or attract new customers?

RUDY BACA: We're likely to go from what is already an intensely competitive wireless marketplace, six to nine providers in any marketplace, to one that is fever pitch. You've got some of the providers who have said I want to have customers come to me and I'll do whatever it takes. I'm going to give them free phones, a free second line. You have others who say well I'm going to provide a different service -- maybe a push-to-talk service. You have others who have said well maybe I'll give you a discount if you get a second phone. You're going to see a wide variety of rate plans, a wide variety of incentives so this is the time for the consumer to really determine what they want and what they want to pay.

TERENCE SMITH: That's assuming that all this does, in fact, go in effect as the FCC has dictated on November 24 or subsequent in some areas, what are the prospects that this will be held up by a legal challenge?

RUDY BACA: There's always the possibility of a legal challenge. I think it's minimal here. The FCC has a decision from the D.C. Circuit that said it has very broad authority to implement this. It's got the 96 Telecommunications Act that Congress mandated, told the FCC you must put this in place. It has consumer demand. Consumers out there know that on November 24, they get to keep their number. So I think it's highly likely, probably less than 10 percent, that there will be a court challenge that would be successful.

TERENCE SMITH: So a cell phone user could call up his or her cell phone provider and use that leverage of being able to keep the number?

RUDY BACA: And they are.

TERENCE SMITH: And say what can you do for me?

RUDY BACA: Absolutely. You call them up and you say I am your customer. I've got a phone number. I want to keep it with me. What are you going to do to make me stay with you? What do you... how are you going to be competitive? I know I can get other things from other providers.

TERENCE SMITH: Finally, what's the impact on the companies themselves? It's big, I'm sure.

RUDY BACA: It's a huge impact because we've got three of the six national wireless providers who are nominally profitable right now. We think this is probably going to kick them back into unprofitable for 2004 so you've got a very competitive wireless sector and we may see some of these companies falling by the wayside.

TERENCE SMITH: And the land line companies have already begun losing market share, is that right?

RUDY BACA: Absolutely so. The wire line companies have additional problems. In addition to the number portability, they're losing for data. They're losing for broadband. They also are required by the FCC to sell at below-market rates to their competitors who then compete against them. The wire line companies, even if they retain a customer as a wireless customer, are receiving much less revenue because those other services such as caller ID, they're free with your wireless service. The consumer knows that.

TERENCE SMITH: A good day for consumers.

RUDY BACA: This is a very big win for the consumers and this is a troublesome time for the companies.

TERENCE SMITH: Okay. Rudy Baca, thank you so much.

RUDY BACA: Thank you.

FOCUS SHIFTING THE BURDEN

JIM LEHRER: Now turning the Iraq war over to the Iraqis. President Bush addressed that issue in a speech to the Heritage Foundation this afternoon. Here is some of what he had to say.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: The long-term security of Iraq will be assured by the Iraqis themselves; 118,000 Iraqis are now serving as police officers and border guards, civil defense personnel and in the facilities protection service. Iraq's security forces join in operations with our troops and they patrol towns and cities independently. Some 700 troops are now serving in the new Iraqi army. Thousands more are being trained and we expect to see 35,000 Iraqi troops in the field by the end of next year. Increasingly the Iraqi people are assuming the responsibilities and the risks of protecting their own country. And their willingness to accept these duties is one of the surest signs that the Iraqis want freedom and that the Iraqis are headed towards self-government. (Applause) Under our strategy increasing authority is being transferred to the Iraqi people. The Iraqi governing council has appointed ministers who are responsible for the day-to- day operations of the Iraqi government. The council has also begun the process that will lead to a new constitution. No friend or enemy should doubt: Iraq liberty will find a lasting home. Iraqis are a proud people and they want their national independence. And they can see the difference between those who are attacking their country and those who are helping to build it. Our coalition is training new police. The terrorists are trying to kill them. We're protecting pipelines and power plants for the good of the Iraqi people. The terrorists are trying to blow them up. We're turning authority over to Iraqi leaders. The terrorists are trying to assassinate them. We're offering aid and self-rule and hope for the future. The terrorists offer nothing but oppression and death. The vast majority of Iraqis know exactly what is going on in their country today. Having seen the worst of tyranny, the Iraqi people will reject the return of tyranny. ( Applause )

JIM LEHRER: More on the Iraq security issue now from Bing West, an assistant defense secretary during the Reagan administration. During the Iraq War, he traveled with the marines to Baghdad and wrote a book about it. He was a Marine Corps officer during the Vietnam War. And Robert Orr was on the National Security council staff in the Clinton administration. He was on a Pentagon postwar assessment team in Iraq this summer. He's now at the Kennedy School at Harvard University. Mr. Orr, what do you think of the current push to quickly hand over security responsibilities to the Iraqis?

ROBERT ORR: I think this is absolutely the right goal. The problem is the way that we're going about it. We're rushing it so aggressively that, in fact, we're looking like this is turning into a cut-and-run strategy instead of a success strategy.

JIM LEHRER: In what way are we pushing it too quickly, are we going too fast?

ROBERT ORR: The president todaynamed 118,000 Iraqis in uniform. When I traveled around Iraq over the summer, there were only a few thousand. One has to question what kind of training these folks have been through when, in fact, they've been, at most, one month worth of training. If someone has a life-and-death decision to make on whether or not to protect an oil pipeline, whether or not to stand and fight to protect a ministry, a couple weeks of training just isn't going to do it. We need to be ready to stand at their side for a while yet.

JIM LEHRER: Bing West, has it gone too quickly? Is it going about it the wrong way?

BING WEST: Well, I too was there this summer. What I saw was the 101st and the Fourth Infantry division out there with the Iraqis, and I think the pace is just about right because we're not facing large battalions. We don't need long training. What they do need is confidence. And working with our troops is the best way of getting that confidence. Our army has done that in other wars at other times so I just see this as a natural progression. I see it if anything as maybe a little bit too slow.

JIM LEHRER: Too slow? In what way is it too slow?

BING WEST: Well, I think you're going to see an acceleration on the part of our forces over there to combine more with the Iraqis because last summer many of our forces had to spend an awful lot of time on the basics of governance and restoring infrastructure, but that's behind them now. So they have more of an opportunity to spend more time training on the job with the Iraqis.

JIM LEHRER: What about Mr. Orr's point about the training that you can put uniforms on people but until you train them properly, you've still got a terrible risk and a terrible problem.

BING WEST: Well, I was in the combined action program in Vietnam. And the best way of giving confidence to somebody for those ten-second fire fights is to watch those who do it well and be combined with them. That's what our soldiers are very, very good at. So I would argue that one of the fastest ways of instilling confidence is exactly what we're doing over there now: Working with them on the job, not sending them off to some formal training school where they're divorced from us but rather learning from our soldiers right on the job.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Orr, what about that?

ROBERT ORR: I absolutely agree that what we do need to do is to have our folks on the ground long enough to be able to have them work with the Iraqis. But all of a sudden we're hearing about troop withdrawals and timetables for troop withdrawal that seem to be driven more by a calendar here in the United States rather than the reality on the ground in Iraq. When I talked with soldiers, American, Marines, soldiers on the ground, they said that they thought they would need to be there a couple years to be able to do joint patrols to get to the level of enough confidence that the Iraqis could do all this themselves. I don't see anyone kind of talking about that realistic time frame right now.

JIM LEHRER: A couple of years, Mr. West?

BING WEST: Gee, we send people for training for six or eight weeks in our system. They're not facing big battalions in Iraq. The New York Times had it right in a story today about an Iraqi school teacher when he said, "I don't dare speak out." This is a campaign of intimidation by some thugs, some terrorists, some resistors. I would imagine four to six months from now, we will be seeing an entirely different situation. It doesn't take years.

JIM LEHRER: Four to six months you think that the Iraqis could be taking care of their own security for the most part?

BING WEST: Well, for the most part, I would be a little bit careful about that but I would say I would expect six months from now if we were having this conversation to see substantial changes on the ground. They already have the police out there. The next structure that they have to put on top of that is the militia, a constabulary that can help the police but we're not talking about large battalions and I think we can get on with this at a pretty fast rate.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Orr, when you look ahead four to six months what's the worst case scenario you see.

ROBERT ORR: Certainly the worst case scenario would be we have a few more major incidents either where Americans are killed in large numbers, and we overreact and kill a number of Iraqis. Another disaster scenario would be some lack of confidence in the Shia community or internal divisions in the Shia turns an entire part of the country into a civil war zone that is currently actually looking fairly calm. So there are plenty of scenarios that could produce real problems for us. I just think it's premature to be talking about troop withdrawals. Mr. West was right about one very important issue. This is all about confidence and making sure that the Iraqis confidently take their destiny into their own hands. If we are starting to talk about withdrawal now, that doesn't exactly give them the kind of confidence they need to go on risking their lives every day.

JIM LEHRER: What about that, Mr. West? Mr. Orr said that a couple times. This talk about troop withdrawal, get the troops out in six months or start taking troops... the U.S. troop strength down next year, et cetera, is sending the wrong message to the Iraqi people?

BING WEST: Well, I think we have to ask what is the mission? And the mission of our big battalions no longer is facing big battalions. The mission is now down to dealing with a small area in Iraq where those who are resisting us are intimidating some of the Iraqis inside the cities and inside the towns. For us just to be driving up and down the highway or something in presence patrols, that doesn't make too much of a difference in that situation. And our troops don't speak Iraqi. They're not in there every day speaking on the street the way the Iraqi police are. So I think reasonably when Gen. Abizaid and our other generals look at this and they say, "we don't need all these big battalions, that seems to make a lot of sense. We don't....

JIM LEHRER: What about Mr. Orr's point that he wasn't predicting this but he was saying a possibility here that this thing could quickly get out of hand if there are huge incidents of violence and they continue then the American troops are going to have to start reacting strong... in a more strongly than they have thus far. Iraqi civilians could start dying. We've got a real civil war on our hands.

BNG WEST: Gee, what I've been seeing though....

JIM LEHRER: It's not that?

BING WEST: It's a trend that's going the other direction. And that is what we are seeing is the use of high explosives in cars to indiscriminately kill many people. But that's a strategy of weakness. Those aren't large fire fights. There's no evidence that the Shias in the South are organizing a rebellion. In fact things are progressing very well in the South and in the North. While anything can always go wrong, if you look at the trends, I think the trends look pretty solid.

JIM LEHRER: Pretty solid, Mr. Orr, to you?

ROBERT ORR: I think the issue of the different parts of the country is a good one. This is not one reality inIraq. At the same time, I think the trends we need to look at different trends -- not just the security trends within the so-called triangle but we do need to look at the trends in the South and see what's happening within the Shia community. The other big issue that I think we need to look at in terms of trends is what's happening politically and economically. People are talking about Iraqification of security. We should be talking about Iraqification of politics and economics as well. I don't think we're making too much progress there. The Iraqi governing council is having lots of problems. Four and five people are showing up for meetings. Many of them are at any given day are here in the United States speaking before groups in the United States. They need to be running their affairs in Iraq. I think we need to get serious about making sure that Iraqis have their political future in their own hands not only at the national level but at the provincial and local levels. Again, that's going to require some time.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. West, how do you see the politics of this, the political side of this equation?

BING WEST: I think it all does start with security. I mean, I see the trends in the Shia area as being positive. Sure, they're fractious but that's democracy. It's when people are intimidated, as they are in Fallujah and other places, that you have a more serious problem. I think you have to bring security first. I think that that is steadily moving forward but that the next movement absolutely has to be the Iraqification, if you will-- a terrible word -- but some way of getting the Iraqis at the police level and the militia level to have more confidence. The best way of instilling that is to have them work with our soldiers.

JIM LEHRER: And you think that the politics will then flow naturally out of that, out of a security....

BING WEST: Absolutely.

JIM LEHRER: You agree?

BING WEST: Yes, I do.

JIM LEHRER: What about it, Mr. Orr? Should the politics come first or do they have to come together?

ROBERT ORR: No, I actually agree that security needs to come first but that is not at the exclusion of the politics. These have to go hand in hand. The level of confidence that we're talking about Iraqis having for their own security needs to be translated into a level of confidence in their politics, in their ability to run their own affairs. Right now a lot of Iraqis are not terribly confident about that. They don't see who their future leaders are going to be. And they don't see a process that they're going to have input into to ensure that they have the kind of leadership they want. That's why we need to get down to the provincial level and to the local level. Our forces have done a remarkable job at that level, but as we start seeing troop pullouts there's no CPA presence in sufficient numbers out in those areas to help advise on the politics and to make sure that that's linked up with the nation.

JIM LEHRER: Okay. Gentlemen, we have to leave it there. Thank you both very much.

FOCUS MARBLE TRIBUTE

JIM LEHRER: Now on this Veteran's Day, a story about the marble shrine at the center of today's ceremony in Washington. Tom Bearden reports.

SPOKESMAN: Forward, march.

TOM BEARDEN: The soldiers who guard the Tomb of the Unknowns at Arlington National Cemetery walk their posts with metronomic precision. 24 hours a day, they stride back and forth in front of the huge piece of gold-flecked marble that sits atop the grave of "a soldier known but to God"-- an American serviceman who died in World War I. The remains of two additional unknowns are interred nearby, casualties of World War II and Korea. A fourth, a Vietnam-era soldier unknown at the time of interment, has since been identified and removed. The guards are here rain or shine. The unit even declined an offer to take shelter during the hurricane that hit Washington last summer.

SPOKESMAN: ...And ordered. Remain as directed.

TOM BEARDEN: The throngs of daytime visitors stand in silence. Only the most observant notice that the tomb has a serious flaw. John Metzler is the superintendent of Arlington National Cemetery.

JOHN C. METZLER: The stone has developed a crack, and the crack has gone all the way around the stone once, and it's starting to go around the stone a second time. And what we're concerned about is that the crack itself will start to come apart, and the figures and the wording on the stone will start to chip away. And, of course, the worse case scenario is the stone itself could shear off.

TOM BEARDEN: The stone was originally quarried in the 1930s near the little town of marble, in western Colorado. Back then, the Yule quarry boasted the largest stone finishing mill in the world. It supplied uniquely high- quality marble for many projects, including the Lincoln Memorial. The stone for the tomb was rolled down the mountain, then transported by train to Washington, where it was carved. The tomb itself was dedicated in 1932. Metzler believes the crack probably occurred during the transportation process and has been there all along. Recently he ordered a study of the tomb by experts.

JOHN METZLER: This report told us a couple things: One, is that the choices we had were either to completely enclose the tomb or to replace the tomb. The other thing the report told us is that was should be cleaning the tomb on a yearly basis and monitoring the crack, and to be sure that we are paying attention to this. So we have been cleaning the tomb each year.

TOM BEARDEN: The challenge now is to find a perfect piece of marble to replace the damaged stone, and they're looking again at Marble, Colorado. The Yule Quarry shut down half a century ago, when marble fell out of favor as a building material. The town's population dropped from thousands to dozens. But some believed the vast remaining deposit of pure white marble, considered by many to be the finest in the world, could still support a viable business despite its remote location. Now the quarry makes headstones for the national cemeteries, and is cutting a piece of marble that will be made into a life size sculpture of George Bush, Sr. for his library in Texas. The current owner, Rex Loesby, has been thinking about a replacement stone for the tomb for more than ten years.

REX LOESBY: The seed of the idea was in 1990, when I reopened the quarry, then reopening it after it had been closed for 50 years. My wife and I visited Washington, D.C. and we were able to go out to Arlington before the changing of the guard at the tomb of the unknown and look at the stone. I said "gee, there is a crack." So I contacted Arlington then, and said "we are working through an area where we might be able to get a tomb block. Are you interested in replacing it?" And it took them two or three years for them to get back, and they said "yes, we would like a new stone."

TOM BEARDEN: The search for the perfect piece of marble began in earnest two years ago. The challenge would be to find a piece that was as big as a garage that was pure white all the way the through. Quarry superintendent Garry Bascom has been at it since last year.

GARRY BASCOM: This is our second attempt at this block. We tried one last year, we didn't feel was good enough.

TOM BEARDEN: In June, Bascom and his crew thought they had found the right location. It took more than 40 hours of cutting to get the piece off the wall. Because the slab is so large, the crew had to practice on a similar sized block to make sure they could remove it without damaging the stone. They realized they'd need something to cushion the fall, so they spread out two truckloads of gravel. In July, they reached the final stages. The crew used a hydraulic jack to move the slab out six inches at a time. Slowly, the slab inched further and further away from the wall. When the stone was far enough out, they brought in a large piece of construction equipment to finish the job.

SPOKESMAN: You got a tape measure, Mario?

TOM BEARDEN: Once on top of the stone, Loesby wasn't sure it would fit the bill.

REX LOESBY: What I'm worried about is this... it's a little bit gray right through here.

TOM BEARDEN: Bascom said seeing the slab finally come off the wall was a relief.

GARRY BASCOM: We all take a lot of pride in it, of course. We're all Americans. We know that the original one came from this quarry, there's a lot of history with it. And, of course, a few of us are veterans, so it means a lot to us personally.

TOM BEARDEN: After a few weeks of using a diamond saw like this one to cut the slab down to get look at the quality of the interior, Loesby's suspicions about the gray spotting were confirmed.

REX LOESBY: We are basically inside the block that we tipped over a few weeks ago. We made a few cuts on it, and as you can see this area right in here, this is really beautiful stone. It matches pretty much what the Tomb of the Unknowns has in it right now. But then we get into this stuff what you see right here, and that certainly doesn't. And that's something we can avoid and get a block that doesn't have it.

TOM BEARDEN: Loesby showed us some grey discolorations that he feared would be all around the stone.

REX LOESBY: This area... I was kind of worried about it, that we might run into this, because I knew these were here, but I thought it would get better as we went to the South. And it turned out it didn't. So we're going to go to another area, and it will probably take us eight or nine months to get to that area before we start on another stone.

TOM BEARDEN: Despite the setbacks, Loesby is still planning to not only excavate the slab from his quarry, but to duplicate the carvings on the original before it journeys to Washington. And he wants to do all that at no cost to the government. Loesby has started a $ 400,000 fundraising drive with the help of the residents of Marble and the American Legion to make the donation possible. He hopes to have the stone completed for installation by Memorial Day 2005.

JIM LEHRER: President Bush was among those who attended today's tribute at the Tomb of the Unknowns at Arlington National Cemetery. Here is part of that ceremony.

JIM LEHRER: And from that, we go again to our honor roll of American service personnel killed in Iraq. Here, in silence, are five more.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the major developments of the day. President Bush promised the growing U.S. casualties in Iraq will not be in vain. And he paid tribute to the war dead on this Veterans' Day. The top U.S. Commander in Iraq warned his forces would get "pretty tough" with insurgents. And there was word that actor Art Carney died on Sunday. He was 85 years old. Later this evening on this Veteran's Day, PBS will broadcast "American Valor," the stories of America's Medal of Honor winners. Please check your local listings for the time. We'll see you online, and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.