The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MacNeil: Good evening. The growing crisis in the Soviet Union again dominates the news this Tuesday. Fears of a military crackdown spread as thousands of anti-coup protesters demonstrated in Moscow and other cities. Russian Leader Boris Yeltsin vowed to defeat the hardliners. President Bush backed Yeltsin's stand and called again for Mikhail Gorbachev's return. Three members of the regime that deposed Gorbachev reportedly were replaced. We'll have details in a moment. Judy Woodruff's in Washington tonight. Judy.

MS. WOODRUFF: We spend the entire NewsHour again tonight on the Soviet crisis. After an update on today's events, four experienced U.S. diplomats join us to assess the unfolding situation, Henry Kissinger, McGeorge Bundy, Jeane Kirkpatrick, and Donald McHenry.NEWS UPDATE

MR. MacNeil: The Soviet Union entered its second night under military rule after a day of growing defiance and rising fears of bloodshed. An overnight curfew was declared in Moscow and a column of 100 tanks was seen about two miles from the Russian parliament building where troops and civilians loyal to President Boris Yeltsin awaited a possible assault. A brief burst of gunfire was heard outside the parliament building this evening. Reuters News Agency reported that several volleys of tracer bullets were fired into the night sky in the direction of the U.S. embassy. Throughout the day Moscow was swept by rumors and unverified reports. One said two coup leaders were replaced because of illness, Prime Minister Valentin Pavlov and Defense Minister Dmitri Yazov. Soviet officials later denied Yazov had been replaced. A report that KGB Chief Vladimir Kryuchkov had also resigned was denied. Boris Yeltsin, buoyed by support from the West, continued to defy the coup and demand Mikhail Gorbachev's restoration to power. Independent Television News Correspondent Robert Moore filed this report earlier this evening.

MR. MOORE: The curfew in the Soviet capital began one hour ago and lasts until five in the morning. It's a key test of whether the new leadership can reimpose an authoritarian grip on the city. Tonight the first indications are that a number of people are still out on the streets but the curfew is being widely ignored. And in open contempt of the new regime Russian workmen are building barricades to stop action by the Red Army. The fears are growing tonight that the curfew will be used to sweep away the debris of two days of street protests. Today was dominated by the first attempt by the reformers to regroup and fight back. They did so not with violence but with a huge and disciplined rally outside the Russian parliament, calling for the man who is trapped by events inside. Boris Yeltsin is now not only their hero, but also their only hope. He is now surrounded by extraordinary security in case the military try and seize him. His supporters even covered his body with a special bulletproof shield. This is a man they must keep safe. Yeltsin's message to the crowd was one of defiance. He demanded the resignation of the new leadership and promised they will be brought to justice. "I call on you to be calm and in no way provoke the military," he said. "Democracy will succeed. This regime is illegal." This rally was all the more remarkable, because such gatherings have been banned under the new emergency state regulations. The former foreign minister, Eduard Shevardnadze, also spoke out against Gennady Yanayev and the other conspirators. "A right wing coup," he said, "is the beginning of a civil war and the start of a new cold war. Inside the parliament, the mood is desperate -- masked men, supporters of Yeltsin preparing for a last stand if the Kremlin orders in the troops. Officials believe military action could be imminent and the sense of fear is being fueled by rumor and confusion -- the sight of submachine guns and other weapons a chilling reminder of what's at stake for those holding out against this coup -- prepared even for the use of gas. Yeltsin tonight is a man under supreme pressure, worrying for his own safety and the future of his republic. "Supporters have no way out," he said. "When the boost is wounded, it might lash out." And he added, "The President of Russia, its parliament and its deputies are convinced that democracy will win." Five hundred miles away in Leningrad, known as the cradle of the 1917 Revolution, the people took to the streets, backing Yeltsin's stand against the Kremlin. It's the first clear indication that support for the reformists may be spreading to other Soviet cities. Back in Moscow, the stark images were evident everywhere, the Kremlin now a fortress. Barricades have sprung up. Tanks were still on the streets of the city. Parts of Moscow's Ring Road remained blocked by buses, but elsewhere, there is a sense of normality. Yeltsin's call for a general strike has met with a patchy response in the capital, an ominous development for those who hoped that the Soviet people would not tolerate a return to a Brezhnev style regime. But from the reformers there's been no talk of compromise. At this stage, they are still refusing to take part in any dialogue with the coup leaders and of course one man is missing from it all, former President Mikhail Gorbachev, no word has been heard from him.

MR. MacNeil: Tonight Mikhail Gorbachev was reportedly arrested yesterday at his vacation retreat in the Crimea as he prepared to return to Moscow. That account came from the deputy mayor of Moscow. He said, "Soviet forces blocked the runway in front of Gorbachev's plane with tractors." He also said, "They sealed off the entire area, blocking air, land and sea approaches to Gorbachev's retreat." The precise whereabouts of Gorbachev remain unknown. Judy.

MS. WOODRUFF: For an update on the situation in Moscow tonight I spoke a few moments ago with Paul Hofheinz, a correspondent for Fortune Magazine. It was a little after midnight Moscow time when we talked.

MR. HOFHEINZ: Well, Judy, it's quite extraordinary. I have to say it's like nothing I've ever seen in my life before. I mean, Moscow is an enormous city. And Kituszaski Brodspect, where our office is, is about eight lanes wide, four on each side. It happens to be the street that leads right past the Russian parliament and it's where the blockades have been erected. You have four tanks on either side of the main bridge crossing the Moscow River. Those tanks are tanks that have gone over to Boris Yeltsin's side and they've been placed there to stop tanks that made possible the march on the parliament later tonight. As I believe you know, there are reports of shooting. I haven't heard those shots, but that could mean anything. It's very confusing.

MS. WOODRUFF: How close is --

MR. HOFHEINZ: It's really quite something out there right now.

MS. WOODRUFF: How close is your office, Paul, to the parliament building?

MR. HOFHEINZ: We're about five minutes away, so we have sort of a front row seat on the whole thing here.

MS. WOODRUFF: Do you know if there are still crowds gathered? There's a curfew out tonight in effect. Do you know if there are crowds of people still out or not?

MR. HOFHEINZ: Oh, very much so. The crowd is quite enormous. I would say it's somewhere between ten and fifteen thousand people. Everyone is listening to their Radio Liberty, the American broadcasts are being beamed back into the country, and it's become the principal source of information, as I'm sure you know -- there's a media blackout on most everything happening here. And you, you pass little groups of people, all of them huddled around their radio listening to the latest news, the latest rumors as they are picked up and beamed back in from Europe. I happened to be there about an hour ago when one of the radio stations reported that Yazov had resigned. And a tremendous cheer went up from this, this crowd. It was really quite a moment. I should mention, as well, that it's pouring down rain so everyone is quite wet, and they've managed to light little bonfires to keep themselves warm and huddle around them. It's really something to see. I mean, for those of us who had any -- had had some doubts about whether the Russian people would stand up and fight for the freedoms that Gorbachev has given them, well, those doubts no longer exist. They're out there and they're quite determined and whether -- how they will do when they are forced to stand up to tanks is not yet clear, but that they're determined to fight is certainly obvious to us all.

MS. WOODRUFF: Is there any doubt in your mind -- you have no reason not to believe the reports that the tanks are on the move, is that right?

MR. HOFHEINZ: Well, there certainly is a lot of troop movement going on around town. I, myself, saw four trucks full of soldiers drive -- drive down Kituzisky not too long ago. The soldiers were craning their necks to get a look at this crowd, but it's very important for you to remember that these are Russians. The soldiers are Russians and demonstrators are Russians and there's a tremendous amount of fraternization going on already. The crowds are talking to the soldiers and vice versa, and I think some people in some very high places are quite concerned how their soldiers will perform if they're asked to fire on their fellow countrymen, as well they should be. No one can tell quite what's going to happen.

MS. WOODRUFF: What is your sense? What are people saying? Do they think these troops are going to fire on civilians?

MR. HOFHEINZ: Well, I think there's a chance that they might, but it's, it's all happening very quickly, and it's moving very spontaneously. I suppose to a certain extent Yeltsin is in charge; if anyone is, it's him, certainly of the resistance I mean. But the extent to which people are organizing themselves, you really need to understand that. You know, as I say, the Russian parliament's a big building, it's a little bit like surrounding the Pentagon. You have people who on one side of the building have no idea what's going on on the other side of the building. And they've organized themselves into brigades. They've done quite a remarkable job, but they're doing that themselves. There is no central authority here. It's, it's very, very difficult to tell what's happening.

MS. WOODRUFF: So a lot of it is spontaneous, but Paul, do you have a sense of whether these people out are an activist minority or whether they represent the feelings of many, if not most Soviet people?

MR. HOFHEINZ: Well, it's very hard to tell. Again, I wish I could be more specific. My own sense is that people are very confused and I mean that quite literally. They don't know quite, quite what to think. Right now they're asking themselves who are we, what kind of a nation are we, are we a nation that fires on our own people, are we a democratic nation, are we a nation in which leaders are replaced in coups, and a lot depends on, on how you answer that question. It's a very difficult time for them right now.

MS. WOODRUFF: Well, Paul Hofheinz, we appreciate your being with us. Thank you.

MR. HOFHEINZ: Judy, it's a pleasure. Thank you.

MR. MacNeil: There were angry denunciations of the coup in other parts of the Soviet Union today. Protesters held a massive rally in the Soviet republic of Moldavia. Up to 400,000 people turned out in the republic's capital. Moldavian leaders called for Gorbachev's restoration to power. They also called for Moldavian members of the Soviet army to follow the people, not the fascists. Leaders in the Ukrainian republic also bluntly rejected the new rulers. They issued a resolution declaring orders by the coup leaders null and void in Ukrainian territory.

MS. WOODRUFF: The situation in the Baltic republics also remained tense today. Soviet security forces moved to further assert their control over independence-minded Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Soldiers seized the Latvian broadcasting station and central telephone exchange. Lithuania's President, Landsbergis, has called for civil disobedience to resist the military and late tonight, Estonia's parliament declared full independence from the Central Soviet Government. The republic's leaders said they were taking the move because transitional independence talks with the new right wing government would not be possible.

MR. MacNeil: Leaders of the European community met today in the Hague on the Soviet crisis. They voted to suspend more than a billion dollars in aid to the Soviet Union and demanded the reinstatement of Gorbachev as President. They also authorized a high level delegation be sent to Moscow to determine Gorbachev's safety and well being.

MS. WOODRUFF: President Bush repeated his condemnation of the Soviet coup today. He called it "an affront to the goals and aspirations of the Soviet people." He said he had spoken with Boris Yeltsin and supported his demand that Mikhail Gorbachev be returned to power. At a news conference in the White House Rose Garden, Mr. Bush said he was dispatching newly sworn Ambassador Robert Strauss to the Soviet Union. He said Strauss would assess the situation and return to the U.S. within the next several days. But he added Strauss would not yet present his diplomatic credentials because he did not want to legitimize an illegal regime. Mr. Bush was asked if he thought the coup was on shaky ground.

PRES. BUSH: I said yesterday that some coups fail. The likelihood of this -- it's hard to evaluate in this circumstance, however, there appears to be very strong support from the people in the Soviet Union for a constitutional government, for democratic reform, and when you see the numbers turn out, President Yeltsin told me that he anticipated there were -- he thought there were a hundred thousand people near his building when I talked to him a few minutes ago. He thinks that there will be strong support from labor to his requests that labor go out and do not -- don't produce until this matter is resolved. So you don't take freedom away from people very easily. You don't set back democracy very easily and I'd say that it is in the best interest of the Soviet Union and its relations with other countries if a constitutional government is promptly put back into, into operation there. RITA BEAMISH, AP: Mr. President, what kind of support though are you going to give Yeltsin, or do you just have to stay on the sidelines and offer verbal encouragement?

PRES. BUSH: Well, we're certainly going to offer encouragement in every way we can and we're making very clear to the coup plotters and the coup people that there will not be normal relations with the United States as long as this illegal coup remains in effect. The Western Europeans have met and they have come out with a statement along those lines and I think with the exception of a few renegade regimes around the world, we're seeing universal condemnation. So let's hope that that will bring the -- these people to their, to their senses.

BRIT HUME, ABC News: Mr. President, in light of your statement of yesterday, late yesterday afternoon, and in light of the fact that you're now denouncing the new regime in Moscow as illegitimate and unconstitutional, might you now or soon be considering granting to Lithuania and the other Baltic republics, which are after all elected governments, the full recognition they have long demanded?

PRES. BUSH: Our position on the Baltic states has not changed. And if there's ever a change in the position, we'll let you know. As you all know, we have not ever recognized the forcible incorporation of the Baltic states into the Soviet Union. And that's where that matter is right now. But we are not giving up on the restoration of constitutional government in the Soviet Union, itself. And so we'll leave that matter right there.

TIM McNULTY: Have you heard from Mr. Yeltsin about the whereabouts or the well being of Mr. Gorbachev, or from anyone else for that matter?

PRES. BUSH: Mr. Yeltsin told me that he tried to send emissaries to see Mr. Gorbachev, that those emissaries were unsuccessful because Mr. Gorbachev is being prevented from seeing people. As I say, I've tried to call him yesterday. I think Prime Minister Major tried the same thing. I tried again today. Mr. Gorbachev is the duly constituted leader of the Soviet Union and we will continue to try. The other thing that Yeltsin told me is -- and I think he's said this publicly -- that he feels that if this medical answer has any validity to it, that the World Health Organization should be permitted to see and examine Mr. Gorbachev. I can tell you that Yeltsin doesn't believe that, and I must tell you I don't believe it, but that is one of the canards being thrown out. It's really old fashioned, but, nevertheless, we will continue to try to, try to stand with Mr. Gorbachev, as Yeltsin is trying to do. Owen, and this is the last one.

OWEN ULLMAN: You met with Gorbachev over the past month. Did either of you in your conversations talk about the possibility of something like this happening, or the possibility of even civil war in the Soviet Union?

PRES. BUSH: No. What was talked about on his part was the irreversibility of this change, the fact that constitutional government is there, elections are over the horizon, and have taken place in the republics, some of the republics, and his conviction that the people are committed to reform and certainly to openness, glasnost as well. And I've seen nothing in the last day or two that would -- would compel him or me to alter that. Now that isn't to say that there's a formidable obstacle right now in the way, and that is eight people that have usurped unto themselves all the power and are trying to take over by force, although Yanayev has said he looks forward to working with Mr. Gorbachev in the future. So there wasn't discussion of that. As you know, I think I have referred to -- I know I have in our own meetings -- concerns that we conduct ourselves in such a way to minimize the chance of military takeovers and that military takeover has taken place. But I believe that the policy that we've had into effect of supporting Gorbachev, as Yeltsin is now -- has been doing over the last few months is the correct policy. I think it is the best hope for democracy, was the best hope for democracy and reform, and remains the best hope for democracy and reform.

MR. MacNeil: Sec. of State Baker leaves tonight for an emergency meeting of NATO leaders in Brussels. NATO Sec. Gen. Manford Woerner said, plans for military reductions could be influenced by developments in the Soviet Union. He said, NATO would retain what is necessary to assure the security of Western nations.

MS. WOODRUFF: Still ahead on the NewsHour tonight Henry Kissinger, McGeorge Bundy, Jeane Kirkpatrick, and Donald McHenry analyze the situation in the Soviet Union. But first, this is Pledge Week on public television. We're taking a short break now so that your public television station can ask for your support. That support helps keep programs like this on the air. PLEDGE BREAK SEGMENT

MR. MacNeil: For those stations not taking a pledge break, the NewsHour continues with a reprise of an interview Charles Krause conducted with the leading member of the opposition group that seized power yesterday in Moscow. He is Col. Viktor Alksnis, a leader of Soyeuse, the hardline faction in the Supreme Soviet. They talked shortly after a parliamentary coup against Gorbachev failed.

MR. KRAUSE: Defense Minister Yazov and the head of the KGB, Gen. Kryuchkov both supported your effort to limit President Gorbachev's powers. Does that mean that the defense ministry, the army and the KGB support your campaign to overthrow President Gorbachev?

COL. ALKSNIS: [Speaking through Interpreter] Yes, but the thing is that we are supported by the public opinion. It seems like there has been very few political leaders in the Soviet history as low as Gorbachev is having today, and honestly speaking, I am sorry for Gorbachev because I see how much indignation and contempt the mere mentioning of his name is raising in society and I guess a tragic destiny is in store for him, and no matter how strange it may sound, I am a Gorbachevist. The fact that we can speak openly today is to his tribute and here comes a paradox. On the one hand, he has given people freedom. On the other, he has led us to chaos and anarchy, and alongside with freedom, there is a free flow of blood going on in the country.

MR. KRAUSE: Could you anticipate a time when the KGB and the army might move directly against President Gorbachev if they felt that the country's security and future were in danger?

COL. ALKSNIS: [Speaking through Interpreter] Yes. I do not exclude this possibility. But this will hardly happen in the few weeks to come. Most likely, after we are into something similar to the Romanian version when there will be millions out on the streets, when the country's economy would collapse completely, the army would be with the people. It will not go against the people. And bearing in mind the fact that there will be people against Gorbachev, it will be logical to suppose that army would be with the people and against Gorbachev.

MR. KRAUSE: Do you advocate the use of force, such as the force that was used in Lithuania last January, to stop these nationalist movements in different republics throughout the Soviet Union?

COL. ALKSNIS: [Speaking through Interpreter] I do not exclude the possibility of the use of power, but again I am not the advocate of power as a phenomenon, but now that we see Gorbachev excluding political power completely from the arsenal of his means, I suppose he's committing a very serious mistake. We see with our own eyes that when your political arsenal is exhausted, sometimes force, power is the last means to try and I think that if today masses of people are deprived of their most basic right, the right to live, when real genocide is executed in the country, it's the responsibility of the state to protect us people.

MR. KRAUSE: The President is presently engaged in negotiating what's called the Nine Plus One Union Treaty with the nine members or leaders of the republics, of nine of the republics in this country. Is this in the interest of the Soviet Union or not?

COL. ALKSNIS: [Speaking through Interpreter] This will be nothing else but a paper which nobody would care about. Each of the republics would keep on telling that we are dissatisfied with this document, we have issued our own declaration of sovereignty, and we suppose that we are higher than the union in our decision making power, and our decision is the one and only right one, and the careless would continue. This is another trick of Gorbachev when the world's public opinion and this public opinion in this country is fooled.

MR. KRAUSE: Do you, in effect, then blame President Gorbachev for allowing the nationalism in this country to get out of hand?

COL. ALKSNIS: [Speaking through Interpreter] Yes, I do accuse him of that. He and no one else but he is responsible for what's happening now. And the blood and sufferings of millions of people are on him and he has to answer for that. FOCUS - SOVIET SHOWDOWN

MR. MacNeil: Now to analyze events in the Soviet Union and the Bush administration's response, we get the views of McGeorge Bundy, who was National Security Adviser to Presidents Kennedy and Johnson. He joins us from Boston. Henry Kissinger was Secretary of State in the Nixon and Ford administrations. He joins us from Kent, Connecticut. Donald McHenry was U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations in the Carter administration and Jeane Kirkpatrick held that post during the Reagan administration. Ms. Kirkpatrick, from adding up all that we've heard, how does the coup look to you tonight? Are Yanayev's men ruthless enough to crush Yeltsin by force, to create another Tiananmen Square? What do you think?

MS. KIRKPATRICK: Well, I think we still don't know, and I think that's the most important outstanding question at this moment. I believe we will know within the next 24 hours.

MR. MacNeil: Donald McHenry, do you have a feel for what kind of men these are and what kind of situation we face?

MR. McHENRY: Well, I think the jury is still out. It may very well be that the force which Gorbachev set in motion, that is glasnost, will be the same thing that saves it.

MR. MacNeil: How would that happen?

MR. McHENRY: Well, it's the resistance of the public, itself. I'm not suggesting that that's going to happen. There's a tremendous amount of power on the side of the coup leaders. But the resistance which has taken place has been as a result of this new found freedom, as the public has demonstrated in the street, and as Yeltsin has also demonstrated.

MR. MacNeil: McGeorge Bundy, from what you've seen and heard tonight, how does the coup look to you on its second night?

MR. BUNDY: Well, I agree that the jury is still out. I think there are signs that these people are acting hastily and desperately, but they do in the measure that they keep control, they do have a very large measure of force to apply and we simply don't know how the encounter between those forces and the people of Russia and their leaders like Yeltsin will come out.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Kissinger, is another Tiananmen Square possible in Moscow?

DR. KISSINGER: I think it will be possible and I think it will be even bloodier if it were to happen. I agree with Jeane Kirkpatrick that within the next 48 hours it will break one way or the other. If the Junta doesn't apply force, I believe that the matter of public opinion will produce defections in the army and they will not be able to prevail. If they do use force and were to prevail, they would, in my view, have a very empty victory because the economic problems, the political problem, and the problems of the cohesion of the state which brought all of this on would still continue, and this is, after all, the group that created the mess to begin with.

MR. MacNeil: What do you think, Dr. Kissinger, of the stand President Bush has taken?

DR. KISSINGER: I think it's the correct stand to take for the present circumstances. I think we have to be on the side of Yeltsin. After this crisis is over one way or the other, we need to have a national discussion or a national policy on the relationship between the United States and the Soviet Union or whatever is there at this stage, so that it doesn't become so tied to individual personalities.

MR. MacNeil: Jeane Kirkpatrick, what do you think of the way the President's played this?

MS. KIRKPATRICK: I think the President's done very well. It seems to me that he's done it just right. He's taken it very seriously. He was right to come back from Kennebunkport, of course. He was right to make clear strong statements about the negative and unacceptable aspect of this development, right to support the Yeltsin stand in this context, and I think it's right for Jim Baker to go tomorrow to meet with the foreign ministers of the NATO countries. It seems to me that he's really done all there is to do at this point.

MR. MacNeil: Has he done that, Donald McHenry, all there is to do?

MR. McHENRY: I don't think there is more that he could do. The only thing I would say is that I would not agree with too much emphasis on Yeltsin. Yeltsin represents the force of legitimacy and we ought to try and restore the legitimate government and not get ourselves tied up with an individual.

MR. MacNeil: And McGeorge Bundy, what do you feel about the way the President's played it?

MR. BUNDY: I think the President has done right in his basic reactions to the events of the last two days and I think we all have to understand that even the best handling of the American hand in this game is not likely to be decisive. Just the same, it is important for us to be on the side that the President has chosen and broadly in the fashion that he has chosen it. I also agree with Henry Kissinger that you have to think about the question of our long run relationship with the government of the Soviet Union, however this comes out. We have a common interest in the safety of the planet even when the government of the Soviet Union is not the one we or the Russian people would have chosen.

MR. MacNeil: So does that mean if these -- if the coup leaders manage to stay in power for a time and become the de facto government of the Soviet Union, Mr. Bush is going to have to recognize them whether he likes it or not?

MR. BUNDY: He will have to have a political relationship with them. My own view is that there would have to be -- and I would expect that there would be in due course recognition of any government which, in fact, is in control of the power, political power, in the Soviet Union. But I don't think it's wrong in this critical and unsettled period to emphasize that there is one government or one set of forces which is constitutional and one which is not in the present situation.

MR. MacNeil: Henry Kissinger, how long can President Bush maintain that posture do you think?

DR. KISSINGER: He can maintain this posture until there is some clear cut outcome. If this turns into a civil war, I think it would be right to support the constitution of the elected government, the only elected government that has ever existed in the territory of the Russian republic. If, unfortunately, the Junta were to win, which doesn't look all that likely to me now, but if it were to happen, deplorable as it is, we have to keep in mind that there are 20,000 nuclear weapons on the Soviet side and that the question of war and peace existed even under very appalling Soviet regimes and that a variety of American Presidents felt it necessary to have some diplomatic contact with them and negotiate on those issues. I hope this doesn't happen. I think the President is absolutely right in the policy he's now adopting and I hope it prevails. Even if it were to prevail, however, at the end of it, we should not think, as Don McHenry indicated, Yeltsin is also going after a while to present a specific foreign policy problem with which we have to deal. We need some concept of what we want there.

MR. MacNeil: Donald McHenry --

DR. KISSINGER: But for the time being --

MR. MacNeil: I'm sorry.

DR. KISSINGER: -- I'm in total support of the President.

MR. MacNeil: Donald McHenry, how long can -- do you think President Bush can maintain this posture?

MR. McHENRY: Well, I think he can maintain it as long as he has to. I would agree with what was stated earlier and that is that I believe we will know in the next few days whether this coup is going to continue or it will break the other way. It doesn't seem to me that this group has too long to get its act together and there are some signs in my view that, that they are having difficulty.

MR. MacNeil: What are those signs?

MR. McHENRY: Well, the persisted rumors in terms of resignations. At least one has resigned. We have rumors that illness has now hit at least two others. Whether that's true or not I don't know. But in addition to that, there are some things that you might expect them to have done to have consolidated their power, which they haven't done. They have cut off the media and newspapers within the country, but they're not stopping broadcasts, telecasts, and so forth coming from outside and of course, in today's technological world, it's possible to take those broadcasts from outside and send them right back into the Soviet Union, thus, helping the opposition forces to rally their forces against the government.

MR. MacNeil: Are you saying you think the coup leaders have shown a certain lack of nerve or stomach for the, the real iron fist?

MR. McHENRY: Well, I think they're capable of using the iron fist. But obviously, there is a reluctance on their part to do so. They have to contend with what's happened over the last five or six years. There have been forces set in motion in the Soviet Union which they are now going to have to deal with. And then of course even if they -- if they succeed, as Dr. Kissinger noted earlier, they have the same economic and political problems that Mr. Gorbachev has been wrestling with.

MR. MacNeil: Jeane Kirkpatrick, how influential do you think on the coup leaders is Mr. Bush saying, I'm not going to recognize you and we're going to reduce any aid we've promised and the European countries are doing that too? Why when they've staked everything on this desperate gamble would those measures be -- really influence them?

MS. KIRKPATRICK: Well, I don't -- I think it's important, by the way, that you included the other Western countries and Japan, the democracies generally have spoken here with something close to envoys, at least they had a common reaction and I think it's important to emphasize that -- that we're not just talking about President Bush and the United States.

MR. MacNeil: Right.

MS. KIRKPATRICK: Because I think the Europeans are at least as important to the Soviets, either Gorbachev or his successors, as the United States. I -- the stakes, in my view -- I think they think the stakes are higher than whether or not they receive aid next month. I think this is, above all, a struggle of a power, power of the government of the Soviet Union, power of the control of the Soviet Union's future, and that they want more than they want aid from Germany or aid from the United States.

MR. MacNeil: I guess my question is: What kind of a sanction really, collectively speaking, is the denial of international respectability and legitimacy, and the cutting off of aid? Can that really hurt them?

MS. KIRKPATRICK: It's about the only sanction we've got, if we're realistic about that, in fact, and it doesn't hurt them enough in the short run, in my judgment, to seriously influence their conduct in the short run. You know, I think it's very important that the unity of these coup makers has already apparently ended and the group that was eight is now presumably five or sometimes it sounds as though they may be four, and I find it very interesting that the most well known and we thought most powerful of the eight are those who have presumably dropped out --

MR. MacNeil: That's --

MS. KIRKPATRICK: I don't think we're influencing any of that at all.

MR. MacNeil: That's Mr. Pavlov, the prime minister who was reported to have a heart attack or high blood pressure today and Dmitri Yazov, the defense minister, whose position is unclear.

MS. KIRKPATRICK: Right. And Mr. Kryuchkov.

MR. MacNeil: And Mr. Kryuchkov, the KGB leader.

MS. KIRKPATRICK: The KGB, right. And we would have thought I think from the outside that these were the most powerful men, probably those calling the shots in the coup. Presumably they're out now or may be out or some people think they're out anyway. We don't know how many people are in. We don't know who's calling the shots and we don't know whether they give a fig, frankly, about the opinions of Chancellor Kohl or George Bush or both of them.

MR. MacNeil: We have a report from -- bulletin from the Reuters News Service referring to that shooting we mentioned at the beginning of the program -- that three people were shot dead outside the Russian parliament building by Soviet tank crews, and that is the only detail that has come in. Henry Kissinger, do you agree with Jeane Kirkpatrick that in the short run the denial of legitimacy by Mr. Bush and other Western leaders, the threat to cut off aid, is not going to be terribly influential on the coup leaders?

DR. KISSINGER: Well, I think -- I think it is going to be somewhat influential. I don't think it's going to be decisive, because at this moment, the personal survival of these coup leaders is on the line. I would like to make one additional point. The United States has to be extremely careful that we don't maneuver ourselves in a position where the coup leaders can use historic reference to xenophobia and paranoia to paint their opponents into the position of being American stooges, and, therefore, we have to tie it as much as possible to, to the future of the Russian people, rather than to say what the United States wants in Russia. It's - - again, this is not a clear decision of anything that has been done, but Yeltsin and his associates will be most effective if he speaks on behalf of the Russian people, of the need for autonomy and similar issues.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Bundy, what do you think about the -- what kind of attention the coup leaders will be paying to the fact that President Bush, Prime Minister Major, President Mitterrand and other Western leaders, Japanese government, have denied them legitimacy and are immediately rescinding or holding back the aid they promised?

MR. BUNDY: I don't believe, as others have said, the coup leaders will be much affected by that, but I think one has to remember that this is a two-sided or many-sided contest. And it seems to me that many other Russians will be strongly affected and encouraged in their resistance by the fact that the leaders of many countries, not just one of the super powers, Ms. Kirkpatrick properly pointed out, are strongly on the side of resistance to this kind of -- of really rather crazy coup.

MR. MacNeil: What more, Mr. Bundy, what more in terms of sanctions, moral or practical, can -- tangible -- can the West or the world exercise in a situation like this? I mean, it's not like Iraq invading another and violating the UN Charter. What more can the world do about this?

MR. BUNDY: Well, I think you're right. It's not like Iraq. It's not an invasion. The President has, himself, made it very clear, and I think rightly so, yesterday, if I'm right, that this is not a case where we would expect to have or where the West can expect to have the kind of military or even political influence that would be created if it were an international issue. It's a Soviet issue within the Soviet Union. So I think we've done what it's appropriate to do and I think it's important to remember that this is, as many have said in this discussion, a matter which is likely to be resolved one way or another relatively rapidly or else turn into an extraordinarily difficult, brutal, and variegated civil war.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. McHenry, do you see anything more that President Bush and other Western leaders can do at present?

MR. McHENRY: I don't see anything more. I would say what they have to do is maintain unity to speak as much as they can with a single voice. I think we should never expect that sanctions alone are going to be "the" decisive action. They are an action which can influence those who are taking the kinds of steps in the Soviet Union. But I would suggest to you that for the most part these coup leaders took their action without regard for the international community. It's true they are concerned about some actions which have been taken by Gorbachev in the international theme. But for the most part, this is influenced by domestic events and to that extent, it seems to me, they aren't going to be that concerned by what we do outside.

MR. MacNeil: Henry Kissinger, Shevardnadze, the foreign minister who resigned dramatically last summer, was also on the podium there outside the Russian parliament with Yeltsin today, his warning was this, that a right wing coup is the beginning of civil war. It is the end of peaceful co-existence, and the start of a new cold war, a new arms race. Now Sec. Baker this evening said, we do not see it as a matter of -- as inherently a matter of East-West confrontation. Is Shevardnadze right, or is Baker?

DR. KISSINGER: I think Shevardnadze is essentially right. If I could go back to the previous point for one minute --

MR. MacNeil: Sure.

DR. KISSINGER: -- I think it is quite possible, incidentally, that the coup leaders are stunned at the American reaction, that, therefore, we might have more of an impact and that this might explain some of the resignations. They may have thought they were doing the same thing as when Kruschev was removed in 1964 when the transition once they had seized power was uncontested and could not be contested, and since they are old line apparatchiks, they may have thought that simply seizing the former power would be -- uh - - would give them full legitimacy. Now to go to your question, I believe that if the coup leaders win, there is a high likelihood that relations between the West and the Soviet Union will deteriorate rapidly. The coup leaders or whoever replaces them will have to go back to this idea that foreign danger has or the foreign powers have generated a lot of this dissention that is going on in the Soviet Union -- since they obviously are trying to keep the whole country together, they will have to look back to the old xenophobia of claiming that it's a -- that a foreign danger is greater than the internal rivalry. And I fear very much that if the right wing coup prevails and a highly centralized government is re-established, that that together with the sanctions that will inevitably follow will worsen the relationship dramatically -- that we will then be back to a cold war type situation and then we will have to conduct the diplomacy that would be appropriate to these circumstances.

MR. MacNeil: Does that raise that ominous possibility to you, McGeorge Bundy?

MR. BUNDY: Well, I'm a little less gloomy, as I often am, a little less gloomy than my friend, Henry Kissinger. I believe, however, that we would have a very important task to try to hold to the most important changes that have occurred in the Gorbachev years. You would have to be sure that everything we could do was done to make sure that a new freedom of Central and Eastern Europe is maintained. We would I think wish to hold very hard to the agreements that have been made about conventional forces in Europe and about the withdrawal of Soviet troops from the places they've been so long. And we would want to hold to our side of the bargain over strategic arms reductions, which is I believe also deeply in the interest of the Soviet Union with its massive domestic, economic, and social problems. So I think it's too soon to say that we would want to give up on keeping the best of what has been achieved in Gorbachev's years, or that the victors, the coup leaders would themselves wish to embark upon a xenophobic cold war- like enterprise. They will have plenty to do even if they win quickly.

MR. MacNeil: Jeane Kirkpatrick, do you take Shevardnadze seriously, that this is the end of peaceful coexistence and the start of a new cold war?

MS. KIRKPATRICK: I always take Shevardnadze seriously, let me say, because I think he is a brilliant and a courageous man. And I think that he is seeking to warn that certainly this is a threat to the dramatically improved relations between the Soviet Union and the rest of the world, which has occurred in the last two years or three years. I believe that the internal character of a regime always influences its foreign policy, quite frankly, and it influences it enormously, and that it is very rarely the case that a regime that uses a lot of force against its own people will be peaceful and sensitive in its relations, correct even in its relations with other governments, so I think it would be more dangerous. I think the world is more dangerous today than it was yesterday or the day before, frankly, and if the coup leaders succeed, whomever they may be, it's likely to become more dangerous still. We don't know who those coup leaders who might successful may be. We do not know whether they will be prudent men who are restrained in the use of force or whether they will be highly ambitious, ruthless types, and I think it's very difficult to try to speculate about the specific individuals' inclinations in foreign affairs until we know, but we will know that the structure of the government will discourage peaceful coexistence.

MR. MacNeil: Can I ask Mr. McHenry just briefly -- we have a few seconds -- how do you read Shevardnadze's warning?

MR. McHENRY: I suspect he's overstated it. It won't be the same as we'd seen over the last several years, but I suspect he's overstated it.

MR. MacNeil: Well, thank you very much. Mr. McHenry, George Bundy, Henry Kissinger, and Jean Kirkpatrick. NEWS SUMMARY

MS. WOODRUFF: Unlike yesterday, the crisis in the Soviet Union had little impact on the world's financial markets. The dollar, which soared against foreign currencies Monday, slipped slightly today. Gold posted sharp losses. Stocks improved on most of the world's markets. The New York Stock Exchange seesawed much of the day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up nearly 16 points. In other news, a federal judge in Minnesota sentenced Walter LeRoy Moody, Jr. to life in prison without the possibility of parole. Moody was convicted in June for sending mail bombs which killed a federal judge in Alabama and a civil rights lawyer in Georgia. Moody's sentence was the most severe possible under the law. Prosecutors said Moody had chosen his targets because he held a grudge against the court system due to a 1972 pipe bomb conviction and he believed blacks got preferential treatment in the courts. RECAP

MR. MacNeil: Recapping our main story of this Tuesday, the growing crisis in the Soviet Union, military action appears to have begun. Reuters News Agency says at least three people were killed when Soviet troops stormed barricades at the Russian Federation Building, which is Boris Yeltsin's stronghold. The move came after the coup leaders declared an overnight curfew in Moscow, but thousands of opposition protesters demonstrated there and in other cities. Boris Yeltsin renewed his call for the defeat of the coup leaders. There were reports that three of those leaders had resigned but Soviet officials later claimed only one of the three had stepped down. Good night, Judy.

MS. WOODRUFF: Good night, Robin. That's our NewsHour for tonight. We'll be back tomorrow night with the latest on the crisis in the Soviet Union. I'm Judy Woodruff. Thank you and good night.