The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight two views of the crisis in Kosovo; a Jeffrey Kaye report on the California Senate race; an election overview from David Broder, Elizabeth Arnold, and Ron Brownstein; a look at the work of three Americans that won the Nobel Prize for Medicine; and a Columbus Day poem on discovery read by Robert Pinsky, the poet laureate of the United States. It all follows our summary of the news this Monday.% ? NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: NATO was a step away today from authorizing air attacks on Serbian military targets. Delegates met in Brussels to approve an activation order for forceful intervention in the Kosovo crisis. In Belgrade, the Yugoslavian capital, U.S. Envoy Richard Holbrooke spent 11 hours trying to persuade Yugoslav President Milosevic to comply with western demands, including the withdrawal of troops from the predominantly Albanian Kosovo province. Afterwards, Holbrooke left for NATO headquarters in Brussels to brief delegates. He had this to say in Brussels.

RICHARD HOLBROOKE, U.S. Envoy: Three years ago, when we were here, the bombs were falling in Bosnia. The bombs are not falling. We are here to discuss how to move forward to full and verifiable compliance with the U.N. Security Council resolution in an effective way.

JIM LEHRER: We'll have more on Kosovo right after the News Summary. In Washington, Congress worked throughout the day to narrow differences over the budget. Republican and Democratic leaders said they expected final agreement on the 1999 spending plan by Wednesday. Meanwhile, they sent to the president another temporary bill this evening to keep the federal government operating past midnight. The most contentious issue in the budget talks is money for education. President Clinton and Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott both spoke about it this afternoon.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: With a third of our children in substandard classrooms, our future is at risk. I believe we can reach across the political divisions here in Washington to take the steps we must to reduce class size to hire more teachers to modernize our classrooms. Smaller classes, more teachers, modern classrooms can do for our public schools, what 100,000 new police officers are doing to keep our community safer. This should not be a partisan issue.

SEN. TRENT LOTT, Majority Leader: We are working on that, and I believe we're going to come to an agreement that would allow for more funds to be used by school districts or for teachers, and I think that my attitude is on that one we need to encourage that, we should do something on it, but I do think that you've got to have local - some local control on that, not have that program run out of Washington and administrative costs eating up 20 percent of the money.

JIM LEHRER: On Wall Street today the Dow Jones Industrial Average made it back above the 8,000 mark. It closed up nearly 102 points at 8001.47. Russian President Boris Yeltsin is sick again. He cut short a tour of Central Asia today because of a respiratory infection. A spokesman said he has a fever and is being treated with antibiotics. On Sunday, Yeltsin's knees buckled while attending a ceremony in Uzbekistan. Yeltsin has suffered from numerous health problems in recent years. Back in this country a gay Wyoming college student died today five days after he was beaten. The story of 21-year-old Mathew Shepherd received nationwide attention after he was found pistol-whipped and tied to a fence in near-freezing temperatures. He had been in a coma ever since. Two men arrested in the case have been charged with first degree murder. Wyoming's governor, Jim Geringer, said today he would consider new ideas for strengthening state laws to protect against such crimes.

GOV. JIM GERINGER, (R) Wyoming: When hatred or prejudice starts to prevail, it's because it's happened little by little. It doesn't happen all at once. It happens incrementally. What we need then for Wyoming is a collective suggestion for how we might deal with bias, with hate, through legislation, but more importantly through our societal conduct. It's not just what we present to the Wyoming legislature for their statutory consideration. It's what we present to the Wyoming people and how we change our behavior.

JIM LEHRER: Wyoming is one of ten states that does not have a law against hate crimes. Three American scientists won the Nobel Prize for Medicine today. They are Robert Furchgott of the State University of New York in Brooklyn; Ferid Murad of the University of Texas Medical School in Houston; and Louis Ignarro of the UCLA. They'll share the nearly $1 million prize for new discoveries about nitric oxide. They led to the development of drugs to treat cardiovascular disease and also the anti-impotence drug, Viagra. We'll have more on the story later in the program. Also coming, a Kosovo update, the California Senate race; an overall election preview; and a Columbus Day poem.% ? UPDATE - SHOWDOWN

JIM LEHRER: The Kosovo story, starting with some background from Kwame Holman.

KWAME HOLMAN: A week ago, U.S. Envoy Richard Holbrooke arrived in Belgrade with an ultimatum for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic: Take several steps to end the crisis in Kosovo or NATO air strikes against Yugoslavia were inevitable. The steps included reducing drastically the number of Serb security forces inside Kosovo, which is a province of Serbia, and allowing international monitors to verify the reduction. However after that first meeting, Holbrooke appeared dissatisfied with Milosevic's response.

RICHARD HOLBROOKE SOT: If he thinks NATO is bluffing, if he wants to take that risk, all I can do is convey to him the views of our government, of the president and the secretary of state on the seriousness of the situation.

KWAME HOLMAN: On the same day last week, representatives of NATO nations were gathering at NATO headquarters in Brussels to try to reach consensus on launching air strikes. Several member countries have yet to commit to strikes -- including Italy and Germany, whose governments are in transition. During the balance of last week, Holbrooke shuttled among meetings with Milosevic in Belgrade, Kosovo Albanian leaders in Pristina -- the capital of Kosovo -- and NATO representatives in Brussels. There he also consulted with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, whose comments about Milosevic grew stronger as the week wore on.

MADELEINE ALBRIGHT: I have asked Ambassador Holbrooke to return to Belgrade to convey a very clear and simple message to President Milosevic.He must comply in a manner that is both durable and verifiable with the long-standing political, humanitarian and military demands of the international community or face the gravest consequences.

KWAME HOLMAN: In preparation for air strikes, NATO commanders continued assembling a force of more than 250 aircraft from the United States and other NATO nations. It includes -- B-52 bombers armed with cruise missiles, as well as British harriers and American F-16, F-18, and A-10 aircraft, most based in Italy. Also on hand in the Adriatic Sea are the aircraft carrier Eisenhower and a guided missile cruiser. Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark warned Milosevic on Friday.

COMMANDER WESLEY CLARK: President Milosevic is going to have to calculate very carefully what the risks will be as he moves ahead. That's the message that I would give as a military leader who's very well familiar with what the consequences of military action can be.

KWAME HOLMAN: Today at NATO headquarters in Brussels, the expectation was that all 16 NATO nations would agree to a so-called activation order -- the last step necessary for the authorization of air strikes. But as the NATO ambassadors prepared to act, special envoy Holbrooke finished his ninth round of talks with President Milosevic. Holbrooke went - without commenting - to brief the NATO Council in Brussels. The two-track process - negotiations coupled with the military build-up and threat of air strikes - followed adoption of a resolution by the UN Security Council last month. That resolution followed the discovery of the latest alleged Serb atrocity in Kosovo, a massacre of ethnic Albanian civilians including children and elderly people, which prompted heavy international protest. The UN resolution, number 1199, calls for: the withdrawal from Kosovo of Serb security forces "used for civilian repression;" an end to attacks on ethnic Albanian civilians; the start of political dialogue with Kosovo's Albanian political leadership; the right of more than 250,000 Kosovo refugees to return to their home villages; and unfettered access to those refugees by international humanitarian organizations. As the possibility of NATO attacks grew imminent, European governments began closing their embassies in Belgrade and evacuating personnel and evacuating personnel. And the Yugoslav Army reportedly continued to fortify its already substantial air defense system.

JIM LEHRER: Two views of this crisis in Kosovo now: Robert Hunter was U.S. ambassador to NATO from 1993 to '98. He's now a senior adviser at the Rand Corporation, a Washington study group. John Scanlan was U.S. ambassador to Yugoslavia in the late 1980's. He's now senior consultant at ICN Pharmaceuticals, a multinational corporation owned by former Yugoslav Prime Minister Milan Panic. Ambassador Hunter, the latest word here is that Holbrooke has briefed the NATO folks in Brussels and is now going back to Belgrade to talk once again to President Milosevic. Is it possible to read anything into any of that?

ROBERT HUNTER, Former U.S. Ambassador, NATO: Well, it's always difficult at a great distance to reach conclusions, but I suspect what is happening is that Milosevic and Holbrooke are working out an arrangement of where we will get what has been asked for in the U.N. resolution on the NATO side, and Milosevic will get on his side continued control in his country and, in effect, the political benefits that he needs. Diplomacy, if it succeeds, always has both sides winners, and this looks the direction that it's going in now.

JIM LEHRER: So you smell a deal?

ROBERT HUNTER: Well, it sounds like there's a deal working out here, which would have the UN resolution abided by, plus some observers on the ground. But we don't know who would provide them yet.

JIM LEHRER: How does it sound and smell to you, Amb. Scanlan?

JOHN D. SCANLAN, Former U.S. Ambassador, Yugoslavia: Well, it looks to me like they're beginning to work out the details of a possible deal. Unfortunately, one part of the deal would be to help Milosevic stay in power, which is his only real interest. He has no other interest. He's willing to sacrifice his people in order to achieve remaining in power as long as possible. But it's better to have him remain in power, even if that's the quid pro quo, to avoid the bombing, fine, but I think we should have spent some time talking to the political opposition as well.

JIM LEHRER: Now the reports today said that the final sticking point - one of the final sticking points - was a point you made, Amb. Hunter, that had some international observers come in there, about 1200 or so. Why is that such a big deal to Milosevic?

JOHN SCANLAN: Milosevic, if you'll recall, had a referendum, an obviously controlled referendum, just before this whole thing blew up back in March against any kind of international involvement. This is his argument for sovereignty here, and it's a way of stimulating more nationalist feelings and xenophobia within Yugoslavia.

JIM LEHRER: So he didn't want any international - he didn't want any UN-chartered NATO troops in there at all.

JOHN SCANLAN: Absolutely not, but he would accept now I think some sort of a limited international participation.

JIM LEHRER: Should that been seen as a major concession?

ROBERT HUNTER: Well, I think just a little bit Brere Rabbit in the briar patch, because for Milosevic he wants very much for the Kosovo region not to become independent, and having a monitor there also will inhibit the activities of those people in Kosovo who are trying to pull the province away. Milosevic, in effect, is going to win this no matter what happens, whether the bombs drop, or whether they don't. With all the months now that we have delayed, the opposition has effectively been undermined --

JIM LEHRER: The Albanian ethnic opposition within Kosovo.

ROBERT HUNTER: Well, the opposition within Kosovo, the people on the ground, the monitors, if we get them, they wouldn't be able to act as well, which is fine. The international community would prefer that Kosovo does remain an autonomous province, get autonomy within Serbia. But what Milosevic has been able to do in this crisis is, in effect, cut the opposition off at the knees within his own country. So, he is going to survive.

JIM LEHRER: He cut them off and then he says, okay, now, I'm ready to make a deal, is that what he did, he acted first and then now he's dealing and he's dealing from strength, he can't lose?

JOHN SCANLAN: Well, he's in a position now to say we had - there was an uprising against authority in Albania - it was serious - or not Albania - in Kosovo it was serious - I went in there and did what I had to do. And it took longer. It was tougher. There were some unfortunate incidents, but I've now restarted law and order there, so I'd be very happy to cooperate with the international community in order to take care of the refugee problem.

JIM LEHRER: And meanwhile - yes -

JOHN SCANLAN: We have to understand his campaign had really come to an end.

JIM LEHRER: He got what he wanted.

ROBERT HUNTER: He got what he wanted. He wanted to get as much killing done before winter. And now the real question is are we going to require him before the NATO threat is taken away to negotiate truly seriously on autonomy or more for the region?

JIM LEHRER: We always have to explain that Kosovo is a province of Yugoslavia; it is 90 percent Albanian, and it used to have a form of self-government -

JOHN SCANLAN: That's correct. Until 1989.

JIM LEHRER: When he took it away.

JOHN SCANLAN: Yes. He worked out a constitutional reform, which - and I was there at the time, which, in effect, reduced the autonomy of Kosovo from rather generous to virtually nothing.

JIM LEHRER: And this deal doesn't change anything. In other words, it doesn't move it back to what it was before 1989.

JOHN SCANLAN: No. The Albanians want - of course, they want independence and we have made it clear that we don't support independence for the Albanians in Kosovo. They're very - very paranoid about - not just about Milosevic but in general about Serbs. Well, when I was there with Mr. Panic, when he was prime minister, we worked very hard to try and gain their confidence, we had lots of meetings with Mr. Ruguva, trying to -

JIM LEHRER: Who's the head of the Kosovars -

JOHN SCANLAN: The Kosovars.

JIM LEHRER: One of them.

JOHN SCANLAN: And tried to get them to support him in his election challenge to Milosevic. And they refused to do it, even though they appreciated what he was trying to do, they just said you can't do business with the Serbs. That was their attitude.

JIM LEHRER: So make sure I understand this now. The bombing - for instance, this - first of all, what is some activation order? There's all these steps toward dropping bombs. Where does activation order fit in there?

ROBERT HUNTER: Well, the objective is to get 16 countries to know exactly what it is they're going to do, and frankly to tell Mr. Milosevic all the allies are together. This is what happened in Bosnia. He out-maneuvered the alliance for about three years until everybody finally got together, and when they did drop some bombs, they backed off. You first start with an activation warning. Tell me what troops might be available - activation request. Now provide the names of the troops the military commander would have - activation order. Now the general can go off and command them. Slow process - activation order is the one that really matters.

JIM LEHRER: And do you believe, Amb. Scanlan, that it's the activation order, or the coming - the sureness of the coming of the activation order that has now caused Milosevic to say okay, come back, Holbrooke, we'll make a deal?

JOHN SCANLAN: Well, I think Milosevic knew that he had won already in Kosovo and he was playing this up till the last possible moment to squeeze everything he could out of it, largely for domestic consumption, you know. He controls the media there, and he has taken control in the past two days of those small pockets of the media that he didn't control, like one radio station, B-92, the student radio station index, 30 radio stations were broadcasting - RFEVOA and BBC --- told them they could no longer do that and they would be prosecuted if they did. So it's - his - he uses his propaganda machine very cleverly to maintain himself as an international statesman that the world has to deal with in order to have peace in Yugoslavia. And that's a mistake on our part. We should have also been talking to the opposition leaders, and there is a new opposition group called the Alliance for Change. Amb. Gelbard met with them in July in the Hague, and has agreed to meet with some of them this week here in Washington - Bishop Artemia, from Kosovo, who's very outspokenly opposed to Milosevic -Mr. Panic -and Mr. Oramovic, who's a former World Bank official, who is very popular in Yuglosavia.

JIM LEHRER: We took the position, the official position that we didn't want to deal with the opposition --we didn't - this was - we didn't want to-

JOHN SCANLAN: I'm not sure it's an official position. I think it was simply because the - Mr. Holbrooke, frankly, didn't have time for it, but I think he should have tried to make time for it, it would have undercut Milosevic somewhat.

JIM LEHRER: Look, you all are both professionals. You know this part of the world probably as well as any two Americans could possibly know it and know what's going on here. For those who are not - the ordinary Americans then - is this kind of end result that appears likely now - is this something that we should feel good about?

ROBERT HUNTER: Well, it was very important to stop the killing. If that can happen, --

JIM LEHRER: That's good.

ROBERT HUNTER: --that is something good, absolutely. The real question is -

JIM LEHRER: And before the winter and -

ROBERT HUNTER: Absolutely.

JIM LEHRER: --before people started freezing to death and starving to death.

ROBERT HUNTER: But there are two other questions: One, are we going to be able to do with a refugee situation and frankly, I think -

JIM LEHRER: There's 200,000 people, right?

ROBERT HUNTER: Yugoslavia - they ought to have to pay a major part in reconstitution here, but the most important thing down the road -

JIM LEHRER: Letting those people come back into their homes.

ROBERT HUNTER: Letting them come back. Rebuilding.

JIM LEHRER: Rebuilding their homes.

ROBERT HUNTER: Absolutely.

JIM LEHRER: Okay.

ROBERT HUNTER: But most important, watching what Milosevic has done. We have to make sure that we don't - in such a hurry to get out of the crisis that we let him next spring start over again, during the winter, not negotiate seriously, because if we do, we'll feel good about him for now and we'll be right back in the same spot next spring.

JIM LEHRER: How do you feel about it?

JOHN SCANLAN: I agree, and I think it's very important that we don't give him any special benefits for doing what he should have done in the first place. He's going to push very hard for a lifting of all sanctions now. I think he should hold back on that until we make sure that he is in full compliance and is helping with the refugee problem.

JIM LEHRER: In other words, a long way before we should feel good about this?

JOHN SCANLAN: Well, I agree with Bob. I think it's good to - it's always good to avoid a war to stop a war, and stop the killing of innocent people but it's a very sad, sad story, and in a sense I - as an American I feel for the last seven months or so we've been speaking loudly and carrying a small stick and have contributed in some ways to this problem getting as large as it is.

ROBERT HUNTER: Let's understand. Everybody out there will read accurately if NATO has been outbluffed on this and Milosevic continues his nasty business. He'll get it exactly right. NATO can still lose this.

JIM LEHRER: Okay. Gentlemen, thank you both very much.% ? FOCUS - CALIFORNIA SENATE RACE

JIM LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight an election preview, the Nobel Prize for Medicine, and a Columbus Day Poem.

JIM LEHRER: Jeffrey Kaye of KCET-Los Angeles begins our election story with a report on the California Senate race.

BARBARA BOXER: You are going to mobilize. You are going to organize. Can we count on you?

PEOPLE IN CROWD SHOUTING: Yes!

JEFFREYKAYE: While Democrat Barbara Boxer is counting on supporters to re-elect her, Republicans are counting on the real possibility of unseating the junior senator from California. Boxer is in a tight race against Republican State Treasurer Matt Fong.

MATT FONG, California State Treasurer: I want to take California forward. Barbara Boxer is looking at a rear view mirror, and she wants to take California back to the past.

JEFFREY KAYE: The Fong campaign expects to receive $3 million from the national Republican Party. Not only are Republicans trying to defeat one of Washington's most liberal senators, they hope to increase the GOP's 55 to 45 vote majority in the Senate.

BARBARA BOXER: In the United States Senate they are five votes away from destroying working people's rights.

JEFFREY KAYE: Boxer was elected to the Senate in 1992, the so-called year of the woman. She has established a record as an environmentalist, pro-labor, anti-war, abortion rights feminist.

BARBARA BOXER: I think you understand what's at stake in this election, regardless -

JEFFREY KAYE: In the past, Boxer spoke out forcefully against Republicans accused of sexual misconduct, but she was initially reluctant to criticize President Clinton for his behavior. The issue dogged the early stages of the race. Fong accused Boxer of hypocrisy.

MATT FONG: She has been unwilling to apply the same standard to her Democrat president that she did to Republicans.

JEFFREY KAYE: Boxer, whose daughter is married to Hillary Clinton's brother, has criticized the president, but she has been careful to couple her disapproval with political praise.

BARBARA BOXER: What the president did was wrong. I've been very clear about that. He, himself, has said it's wrong. Having said that, I don't think that in any way should cloud our vision of what he has done for this country, you know, especially in California, where we were in the darkest recession since the Great Depression. And in California, we've had 1.4 million new jobs created, 100,000 new businesses, and the first balanced budget in 30 years. It's a balanced budget with a heart.

JEFFREY KAYE: While Boxer credits policies she's supported for improving the U.S. economy, Fong offers a classic conservative prescription for prosperity, lower taxes.

MATT FONG: Then help me get elected so I cannot only fight to lower them but to end the IRS as we know it and build a new 21st century tax code that stops punishing savings and investing by ending the capital gains tax and ending the death tax.

JEFFREY KAYE: Fong is a lawyer and former Air Force officer whose differences with Boxer reflect a classic liberal versus conservative match-up. Fong advocates a flatter tax rate and a stronger military.

MATT FONG: We need a national missile defense not to stop 20,000 missiles from Russia but to stop the one or two coming from terrorists.

JEFFREY KAYE: Fong supports a national missile defense program. That proposal - the successor to Star Wars - is a cornerstone of the National Republican Party's platform. Boxer opposes the program.

BARBARA BOXER: Remember Star Wars? It hasn't proved that it can work. We put billions of dollars into it, and we need to save that surplus for Social Security first.

JEFFREY KAYE: Boxer wants to raise the minimum wage. Fong disagrees. Fong is a low-key, somewhat stolid campaigner.

MATT FONG: Economist Magazine said that I was the Republican version of Al Gore.

JEFFREY KAYE: By contrast, Boxer delights in working up a crowd.

BARBARA BOXER: Matt Fong is wrong on taxes. Don't you think Fong is wrong? Fong is wrong.

CROWD SHOUTING: Fong is wrong! Fong is wrong!

JEFFREY KAYE: Notwithstanding the enthusiasm of Boxer's supporters, Mark Dicamillo, director of the California Field Poll, says in his most recent survey of likely voters, Fong pulled slightly ahead of Boxer.

MARK DI CAMILLO, Field Poll: Overall, the movement of voters is moving toward Fong, as with each succeeding poll. They're seeing larger proportions of voters becoming aware of Matt Fong. I think he's positioned himself as a moderate, which is where most elections in California are decided.

JEFFREY KAYE: DiCamillo says Boxer has polarized voters.

MARK DI CAMILLO: Democrats generally have a very positive view of Boxer; Republicans generally have a very negative view of Boxer. And so with a race like the Boxer/Fong race in a very highly partisan, highly charged turnout, it really will depend on whether the Democrats show up in greater proportions, or will the Republicans show up in greater proportions?

JEFFREY KAYE: DiCamillo and other pollsters say many Democrats discouraged by the president's problems may not vote. Boxer is trying to counter such speculation.

BARBARA BOXER: We need to make sure that the pundits are wrong and we have the biggest get-out-the-vote effort this state has ever seen. So will you stay with me?

JEFFREY KAYE: To shore up her base of support, Boxer is campaigning among her core constituencies -- women, minorities, and labor groups. She and Fong are portraying each other as extreme.

MATT FONG: I think California's families are right in the middle and Barbara Boxer's far to the left.

SPOKESMAN: This is Matt Fong. He's the gun lobby's favorite candidate for the Senate.

JEFFREY KAYE: But the Boxer campaign is attacking Fong for his positions on hot button issues for loyal Democrats - gun control and abortion rights.

BARBARA BOXER: Matt Fong is anti-choice. He said on national television Roe V. Wade, which is the law that gives women the right to choose, he said Roe V. Wade was wrongly decided.

JEFFREY KAYE: But Fong, who considers himself politically moderate, says he is not entirely anti-choice.

MATT FONG: She's distorting the record. I have come out very clearly and on the first trimester that I respect a woman's right to choose, and that I would not vote for an amendment overturning Roe V. Wade.

JEFFREY KAYE: Fong opposes federal funding of abortion. On gun control he supports a ban on assault weapons but opposes additional gun control legislation. Instead, he prefers harsher penalties for criminals who use guns. Fong, who is Chinese-American, is courting the Asian-American vote.

MATT FONG: I just wanted to bring good news to our Asian-American community that the race is doing fine.

JEFFREY KAYE: Asian-Americans account for only 5 percent of the California vote. But Fong campaign consultant, Sal Russo, says they could make the difference in such a close race.

SAL RUSSO: I think because the community is so motivated, because of their pride in Matt's success, that their turnout is going to be higher than other demographic groups. That's going to be a crucial couple of points that we're going to have at the end.

JEFFREY KAYE: Many Asian-American Democrats are crossing party lines to support Republican Fong, among them former California Secretary of State March Fong Eu. Eu is also Matt Fong's mother. She says she supports her son not just out of family pride - like many other Asian-American activists - she believes he would be more sensitive to complaints that the government scapegoated Asian-American campaign contributors after the 1996 election.

MARCH FONG EU, California Secretary of State: They had had FBI agents knock at their door, unannounced, asking them questions like: Are you a U.S. citizen? Why did you make the political contribution? What a frightening experience for many Asian-Americans who are politically involved for just the first time.

JEFFREY KAYE: But Boxer is not conceding the Asian-American vote and has received prominent endorsements. Despite the polls in one aspect of the race, she leads, while the Matt Fong campaign expects to raise 8 to 9 million dollars overall, Boxer says she is anticipating a 15 million dollar war chest.% ? FOCUS - ELECTION '98

JIM LEHRER: And Margaret Warner takes it from there.

MARGARET WARNER: The California Senate seat is one of 34 up for election this year. Of those, 16 are presently held by Republicans and 18 by Democrats. In the House of Representatives, where all 435 seats are up for election, Republicans now have a 21-seat majority over Democrats - 228 to 206 - with 1 independent who usually votes with the Democrats. Among the nation's governors the current breakdown also favors Republicans - 32 Republicans, 17 Democrats, and 1 independent. Thirty-six of those states are up this year, 24 currently held by Republicans, 11 by Democrats, and the 1 independent. With the elections just three weeks away, we get some perspective now from three veteran political reporters: David Broder of the Washington Post; Ron Brownstein of the Los Angeles Times; and Elizabeth Arnold of National Public Radio. Ron, as we just saw in Jeff Kaye's piece, the impeachment issue in President Clinton's problems are causing a few problems for Barbara Boxer in California. How typical or reflective is that of the way the impeachment issue is playing for Democrats in all these races?

RON BROWNSTEIN: Well, it's actually quite revealing, I think, in that Barbara Boxer is an incumbent who had problems before Bill Clinton ever admitted wrongdoing with Monica Lewinsky and to some extent is compounding those problems, but what's quite interesting is that I think it's revealing of a larger trend in a different way than that might suggest. Matt Fong, although he has criticized Barbara Boxer for her hypocrisy, has not called on Bill Clinton to resign or much less for his impeachment and conviction by the Senate. What you're seeing in most of these close races is that the candidates on both sides are being relatively cautious about having handled this. The people on the front line - the Democrats almost staunchly defending Bill Clinton - by and large - are from very safe Democratic seats in the House. The Republicans, who have called for him to resign, are almost uniformly from safe Republican seats in the House. What you're seeing is the candidates in the middle being more careful. And with the interesting turn now that's coming this week is for the first time Democrats are thinking they may be able to use the issue themselves. Chuck Schumer, in New York, running against Al D'Amato, gave a very -

MARGARET WARNER: For a Senate seat.

RON BROWNSTEIN: For a Senate seat - gave a very strong pro-Clinton statement on the floor and in the Judiciary Committee, and out on Elizabeth's neck of the wood you're seeing a Democratic candidate, Jay Ensley, in the House race there, being the first Democrat to aggressively advertise and say it's time to put this behind us and let's move on. If he's successful with that argument, Democratic strategists tell me today you're going to see a lot of repetition of that argument perhaps in the next couple of weeks.

MARGARET WARNER: Elizabeth, how do you see the impeachment issue playing in the elections you've looked at?

ELIZABETH ARNOLD: Well, I agree with Ron. I think polls are only how just beginning to pick up on an undercurrent that's been there all along, and that is that people have been disgusted with the president's behavior, but they've been equally disgusted with a relentless pursuit of the scandal and preoccupation with the scandal. Ever since Whitewater, people have registered that sort of discontent with these investigations. Come on, let's get on with doing the kinds of things I'm interested in, education and the problem for the Republicans right now is as Congress adjourns, the visual in people's heads is the impeachment vote, not today's wrangling over education, for example. He mentioned - Ron mentioned Jay Ensley's ads, a very powerful ad - it could be the start of something. It's not a long shot race. It's a very close race, and I can't imagine Jay Ensley would take that kind of chance without strong pulling behind him. And the ad basically says Rick White's vote means months and months of more mud in politics, White and Gingrich are dragging us through the mud again.

MARGARET WARNER: David, is that how it looks to you, that it's all really quite fluid right now in terms of how each party's going to play this impeachment issue and how it may play for them?

DAVID BRODER: Well, I think we need to be a little cautious about this. In most of the close races the advertising is just now beginning to hit the air, and the places that I've been, the candidates focus much more on each other than they are on President Clinton or the people who are about to try to impeach President Clinton. I think in the close races this is going to be still very much a man-to-man or man-to-woman kind of a contest. In the end, the environment that's created by the Washington scandal will affect the election. It will impact on turnout, and in some cases it may drive the actual issues of the campaign. But I think by and large we're looking at a classic mid-term election where turnout and the strength or weaknesses of individual candidates will be paramount.

RON BROWNSTEIN: And, of course, I think, David, you'd agree. That is quite significant in itself, because only a few weeks ago - maybe a month ago - many people - certainly in the Republican Party - were expecting something very different than a classic mid-term election, an election nationalized around Bill Clinton's behavior, with demoralized Democrats staying home, and a big - you know - unusual wave generating - this does seem - the fact the candidates are moving away from this issue and focusing in on their own comparisons suggests that it's not as black and white sort of political calculation as it might have seemed say in late August or early September.

MARGARET WARNER: And, Elizabeth, so in other words, if the pundits here are saying this election will be the public's vote, whether they want Bill Clinton removed from office, candidates are - out there aren't presenting themselves that way, are they? Is that what you're saying, they're not committing themselves to vote one way or another, they're not saying vote for me, because I won't impeach or I will impeach.

ELIZABETH ARNOLD: No, not at all. In fact, there are much more ads up about education, about traffic jams, urban sprawl, those kinds of things, and as was pointed out, everyone's being very cautious, when they do mention this. In fact, at first, the only people talking about who have ads up that said, Mr. President, you should resign now, were long-shot candidates, conservative Republicans and conservative districts who didn't have anything to lose, and had only something to gain by it. You know, I think we should take a step back, though, as David is suggesting. We have to be really cautious. But when we started thinking about this mid-term election cycle, we saw gains for Republicans in the House and the Senate and governorships. That's still what we're talking about right now. The question is how significant those gains will be.

MARGARET WARNER: David, what are the substantive issues that these candidates are running on, and is there any kind of a national agenda for either party, say the way the Republicans had their Contract with America in the last off-year elections in '94?

DAVID BRODER: Well, the Republicans are trying to remind people that one of the missions that the public gave the government in 1996, balance that budget and end the deficit, has actually been accomplished. And they would like to remind people that that happened at a time that they controlled the majorities in both Houses of Congress. We're talking about taxes and both parties are trying to talk about education, health care, and to a lesser extent crime, but the education issue is the universal issue, and where candidates say the Republican governors who are up this year have been able to put concrete measures in place, toughening school standards, putting more money into the schools, reducing classroom size, those are the candidates who seem to be coasting to re-election because that issue is very close to people's hearts.

RON BROWNSTEIN: No. I agree. You know, if you look at the Republican governors this year, by and large, they're running on an agenda that's very similar to the balanced budget deal of 1997, that drew so much criticism in parts of the party. They are running on increasing spending on education, increasing spending on children's health care, and cutting taxes using prosperity to cover all of their bases. At the national level I think the message was a little more defused from the Republican Party. On the one hand, as David suggests, virtually all the candidates, all the incumbents are emphasizing the achievements of the last few years. They're diverting a little bit more on where to go next, whereas, the Democrats, paradoxically, are more unified than they have been in terms of message for sometime. They may be running away from Clinton personally in many cases, but they are basically running on the State of the Union agenda, sort of the holy trinity for Democrats this year preserving the surplus of Social Security, spending more on education, mostly to reduce class sizes, and patient's bill of rights - left, center, and right - just about every Democratic candidate in the country is emphasizing those three issues.

MARGARET WARNER: Elizabeth, you want to weigh in on this, on the substantive issues?

ELIZABETH ARNOLD: Well, I'd agree with that. Education is usually in the laundry list that Republicans - that voters give you. They generally - it's the economy, taxes, education, but this year as was the case in the primaries, education is really the first thing people talk about, and it's a disconnect. It's the sense that things are really going well for me economically, or should be. I keep hearing that this is supposed to be going well for me economically. Why is it that my child's classroom - it's so crowded - or why is it that my child is attending school in a portable classroom? So education is really what keeps coming up, Margaret, especially when you just ask the overall question, just the blanket question, what are you concerned about? It's my kid's school.

MARGARET WARNER: David, going back to the Boxer-Fong race for a minute, what about - what happened to these women candidates? Six years ago it was the year of the woman. I'm now looking particularly at the Senate races. And there are three of the new Democratic women senators elected that time up for re-election this year, are they all in trouble, is there any kind of common trend here?

DAVID BRODER: Well, one is in very great trouble. That's Senator Carol Moseley Braun in Illinois. It doesn't have much to do with the fact that she is a woman and almost nothing to do with the fact that she is African-American. But she has managed to create an impression that she's more interested in playing foreign policy in Nigeria and other African countries than in focusing on her constituents' needs. Her office has a bad reputation for responding to Illinois constituents, and that's beginning to catch up with her. Barbara Boxer, as your piece suggested, is in some significant trouble in California, and I'll yield to Elizabeth, who's in Seattle, to tell us about the third member of this group.

MARGARET WARNER: Elizabeth.

ELIZABETH ARNOLD: Well, the one link, if there is a link, is that all these candidates are women; they were all elected during the year of the woman, and no longer is it a novelty to be a woman, and out here in Washington State Ty Murray is running against another woman, Linda Smith. And Linda Smith is a populist candidate who's taking a number of votes out of Patty Murray's base.

MARGARET WARNER: Any other sort of trends here, Ron, maybe in Senate races, any regional differences that are interesting or regions to watch?

RON BROWNSTEIN: Well, I think what's happening to Democrats in the South this year is worth watching. You have a couple of open seats in the Senate - Kentucky and in Arkansas you have two very competitive races in the Carolinas, with a Republican incumbent in North Carolina and a Democratic incumbent in South Carolina. You have some very competitive governor's races and I think one of the questions this year is going to be whether Democrats can, in effect, find a place to stand in the South to - if not reverse - at least stop the losses that they've - that have been going on and have accelerated through the Clinton era. One of the ironies is a Democratic president from the South, basically centrist, tried to govern as a centrist president, but yet has precipitated even larger losses for Democrats in the South. This Kentucky Senate race with Scotty Baesler and Jim Bunning is a very close race -

MARGARET WARNER: This is an open -

RON BROWNSTEIN: It's an open seat, a vacated seat by a retiring Democrat. It's one of the seats that's going to tell us how bad the losses are going to be for Democrats on election night.

MARGARET WARNER: David -

DAVID BRODER: Margaret, we ought to say one thing about the biggest race in the country, and that's the California governorship. At this point, you know, Republicans have held that governorship for 16 years now. At this point Dan Lungren, the Republican candidate, is not winning that race against Gray Davis. It's too soon to say that he's lost it, but if - if he cannot pull that race out, whatever gains Republicans make elsewhere in the country, it's going to be a really sort of downer for them on election night.

MARGARET WARNER: But how do you explain, David, that, on the one hand, Barbara Boxer, the Democratic incumbent appears to be in some trouble in California, but on the other hand,the Democrat Gray Davis is doing well in the governor's race?

DAVID BRODER: Well, I think there are a number of factors that are at work there. But one of the things that has struck many people, including some Republican critics of the Lungren campaign, is that his focus has been almost entirely on the crime issue so far -- death penalty and three strikes. And he's so far at least, letting Gray Davis have almost a free ride on the issue of education, which in California, as elsewhere, is number one on the voter's minds.

MARGARET WARNER: Elizabeth, you want to weigh in on this?

ELIZABETH ARNOLD: Well, I think what's interesting about the California race is that it's more a referendum on Barbara Boxer and whether over the past six years she's done anything to reach out beyond her liberal base, not necessarily a question of Matt Fong's popularity. What's interesting for the Democrats is they're having to pour a lot of money into the race, a race that they didn't expect to pour a lot of money into, and that's hurting Democrats elsewhere in the country.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Thanks. Elizabeth, David, Ron, thanks very much.% ? FOCUS - NOBEL WINNERS

JIM LEHRER: The Nobel Prize for Medicine and to Elizabeth Farnsworth in San Francisco.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: The prize this year went to three American scientists for their discoveries about the role of nitric oxide in regulating blood vessels. The laureates are Robert Furchgott of the State University of New York in Brooklyn; Ferid Murad of the University of Texas Medical School in Houston; and Louis Ignarro of the University of California Los Angeles School of Medicine. And with me now to explain their work is Dr. John Cooke, Director of Vascular Medicine at the Stanford University School of Medicine. Thanks for being with us.

JOHN COOKE, Stanford University School of Medicine: My pleasure.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: This was a bit of a scientific mystery story, wasn't it? Explain their discovery.

JOHN COOKE: This was a great story. Bob Furchgott was in his laboratory and found that the blood vessel was doing something extraordinary. There was something it was releasing that was causing the vessel to relax. With a lot of work, he discovered that this relaxing factor was coming from the lining of the vessel - the endothelium - relaxing factor he tried to characterize here, but was so short-lived he really couldn't get a handle on it. And it wasn't until six years later actually that it was discovered to be nitric oxide. So for a short time there - for six years - it was called Endothelium Derived Relaxing Factor, or EDRF, because no one knew what it was.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And how did they discover it was nitric oxide? And, by the way, what is nitric oxide?

JOHN COOKE: Nitric oxide, NO - I'll refer to it as NO - is a simple molecule, has two atoms - nitrogen and oxygen. But it does an incredible array of things.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: First of all, it's a gas, right?

JOHN COOKE: It's a gas.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: We know it as the byproduct of the automobile exhaust fume, but this is also inside of our bodies?

JOHN COOKE: Yes. Our blood vessels make nitric oxide. It's a potent facile dilator, and this is how it was discovered, because it has this characteristic of relaxing blood vessels.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Okay now we've got some pictures. Let's look at blood vessels and explain what we're seeing and what it is that these scientists discovered and got a Nobel Prize for.

JOHN COOKE: Okay. This is - we're in our laboratory. We're looking at a rabbit iliac artery, a blood vessel, by video microscopy, and you can see this blood vessel is - it's contracted to norepenephrine. It's alive. It's functioning. It can contract and relax. Now what we do is we pass a little bit of flow through it, and you can see that the vessel relaxes in response to that flow.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And by relax, you mean it gets bigger.

JOHN COOKE: It gets bigger. The endothelium, the lining of the vessel, is able to sense that flow and -

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: The flow of -

JOHN COOKE: The flow of blood - through the vessel - and in response to that, the vessel relaxes.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: But where's the nitric oxide come in?

JOHN COOKE: The nitric oxide is coming from the endothelium. The endothelium responds to the blood flow through it by releasing nitric oxide.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Okay. Why was this such a big deal? I noticed that the Nobel assembly that released the prize in their press release said it was sensational.

JOHN COOKE: Well, it's a great discovery and it's going to have tremendous ramifications in American medicine - in medicine throughout the world. Nitric oxide is - as I said - a potent facile dilator. It controls blood flow. It controls our vascular resistance - blood pressure - so that when you have - when you're making sufficient amounts if nitric oxide, your blood vessels are relaxed, your blood pressure is low. If you're not making enough or it's inactivated, you make - your blood vessels become contracted and your blood pressure rises. So this is an important feature of the blood vessels - ability to control its own diameter.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Until these discoveries that they made - and these were mostly in the early 80's and mid 80's, right?

JOHN COOKE: That's right.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Nobody knew exactly - I mean, we knew that nitroglycerine could help prevent a heart attack.

JOHN COOKE: Yes.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Right. But you didn't realize that it was causing the release of nitric oxide?

JOHN COOKE: Well, that work - actually, that work was done by Ferid Murad, and Murad was able to show that nitroglycerine and these other agents worked by causing - by releasing nitric oxide and stimulating an enzyme in the vessel wall called guanalade cyclase. And then Ignarro, the third individual that received the prize, discovered that NO donors increased - NO increased the cyclic GNP - the second messenger in the blood vessel to cause the relaxation, so together these three individuals worked out the whole pathway of how nitric oxide induces facile dilation, relaxes blood vessels.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Okay. So tell us some of the implications. For example, in your field you're a cardiovascular doctor. Do you try to get more nitric oxide into people who are, for example, having their - that are, for example, having hardening of the arteries?

JOHN COOKE: Well, as you mentioned, Elizabeth, nitroglycerine is something that releases nitric oxide and relaxes people's vessels, and that can improve their blood pressure; it can relieve their chest pain by opening up their heart vessels and improving flow. Normally, in a person who does not have hardening of the arteries, your blood vessels make sufficient amounts of nitric oxide so you obviously don't need to take the medicine. So there's two ways that you can improve the status of someone that has hardening of the arteries. You can give nitric oxide - nitroglycerin in a pill, or you can improve the release of nitric oxide from the blood vessels themselves and enhance the body's ability to make nitric oxide, or protect nitric oxide from being broken down.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And that's what you're doing in your lab here, basically building on your research?

JOHN COOKE: That's right. We've - we're basically - they've built a very strong foundation to move into new applications now for cardiovascular disease and for other fields as well. My own work suggests that nitric oxide can - is our self-defense system against athrosclerosis. You see, the endothelial lining of the vessel is like Teflon. It keeps things from sticking to the vessel wall. The reason it has this property of Teflon is because it releases nitric oxide, so it's a non-sticky surface because it's releasing nitric oxide, which not only relaxes the blood vessel but also prevents things from sticking to the vessel.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Now, the wires about this today all mentioned that the research led to the medication Viagra too, which can help people with impotence. How does that work?

JOHN COOKE: Well, Viagra assists the action of nitric oxide. As I mentioned to you earlier, nitric oxide causes a second messenger to be produced, this cyclic GNP, and Viagra prevents the breakdown of cyclic GNP, so it magnifies the effect of nitric oxide. Well, as I mentioned to you, nitric oxide is a potent facile dilator, and facile dilation increased blood flow -

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And by that you mean it makes the - it causes the relaxation of the blood vessels.

JOHN COOKE: That's right. It relaxes blood vessels. And maletomesence - it requires increased blood flow for that, so this is why Viagra works. It improves blood flow to that part of the body.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And another use, I noticed, is for babies, what we used to call blue babies, babies that are in respiratory failure.

JOHN COOKE: Yes, that's right.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: How does this nitric oxide help babies?

JOHN COOKE: Well, what they do for children that have this problem is they try to improve the blood flow to the lung and they do that actually by putting the nitric oxide gas in the oxygen that the children are inhaling, small amounts, very small amounts, because it's very powerful, and those small amounts of nitric oxide will cause the lung vessels to open up, improving lung blood flow and improving the oxygenation of the blood, getting more oxygen in the blood for the baby.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: What about halting tumor growth? I saw some indication that perhaps nitric oxide could even help with cancer.

JOHN COOKE: Right. I think it was Ferid Murad that mentioned that today - and what he's referring to is the fact that nitric oxide is part of the body's self-defense mechanism. I mentioned hardening of the arteries but it also defends against bacteria. It also defends against tumor cells. NO in high concentrations can actually halt the growth of cells or can halt bacterial growth, so it's a defense against infection, it's a defense against tumor, it's a defense against hardening of the arteries.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And just briefly, is there a down side to this, people should be worried about getting too much NO, right? Nitric oxide can be dangerous?

JOHN COOKE: Nitric oxide is dangerous under certain circumstances, but these are very unusual sepses. When the body is confronted by overwhelming infection, the body in response to that makes a lot of nitric oxide and that can cause the blood pressure to drop.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: And just at the very end here, it's not nitrous oxide, which we know as laughing gas. It's quite different, isn't it?

JOHN COOKE: Nitric oxide is NO. Nitrous oxide is something different. But it's also a gas, and it also causes blood vessels to relax. Nitric oxide is somewhat different.

ELIZABETH FARNSWORTH: Well, Dr. Cooke, thanks very much.

JOHN COOKE: My pleasure, Elizabeth.% ? FINALLY - NEW WORLD

JIM LEHRER: Finally tonight, some Columbus Day poetry presented by NewsHour regular Robert Pinsky, the poet laureate of the United States.

ROBERT PINSKY: Columbus Day has become a time when we try to balance elements of horror and glory in the coming of Europeans to this hemisphere. I'm not sure anybody's imagination has gotten that balance quite right, but Elizabeth Bishop, looking at the mystery of the Brazilian landscape, catches the splendor of that landscape and the mystery that drew the first invaders in toward a sexual or imperial conquest that the invaders never quite attained. First, Bishop describes the fabric of the Brazilian forest, a dense tapestry. "Every square inch filling in with foliage, big leaves, little leaves, and giant leaves, blue, blue green and olive, with occasional lighter veins and edges, or a satin under leaf turned over. Monster ferns in silver gray relief and flowers too, like giant water lilies up in the air, up rather in the leaves, purple, yellow, two yellows, pink, rough red, and greenish white, solid but airy, fresh as if just finished and taken off the frame." That's the fresh woven fabric that the European cannot quite attain, though they invaded. The ending of Bishop's poem evokes the paradox of Portuguese soldiers glinting like little nail heads lost and transformed, even as they seem to conquer. The hemisphere, Bishop seems to say, eludes our attempts to know it. "In creaking armor they came and found it all, not unfamiliar. No lover's walks, no bowers, no cherries to be picked, no lute music, but correspond, nevertheless, to an old dream of wealth and luxury, already out of style when they left home. Wealth, plus a brand new pleasure, directly after Mass, humming perhaps 'Lamarme' or some such tune they ripped away into the hanging fabric, each out to catch an Indian for himself, those maddening little women who kept calling, calling to each other, or had the birds waked up and retreated, always retreating behind it."% ? RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the major stories of this Columbus Day, NATO was a step away from authorizing air strikes against Serbian military targets, Republicans and Democrats attempted to narrow their differences in budget talks, congressional leaders said they expected a final agreement on the 1999 spending plan by Wednesday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had another day of solid gains, closing up 102 points at 8001.47. We'll see you on-line and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.