The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

RAY SUAREZ: Good evening. I'm Ray Suarez. On the NewsHour tonight, a summary of the news; excerpts from the British parliament's debate over war with Iraq, plus reaction to the dossier against Iraq presented there; a report on efforts to elect women office-holders in Morocco; and a look at this country's troubled economy.

NEWS SUMMARY

RAY SUAREZ: Britain charged today that Iraq has chemical and biological weapons ready for use on less than an hour's notice. Prime Minister Tony Blair also alleged Iraq had tried to obtain uranium in Africa for nuclear weapons. The claims were based on a dossier of intelligence findings. Blair told parliament the dossier showed the case for disarming Iraq was overwhelming. In Washington, President Bush welcomed the Blair report.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Prime Minister Blair -- first of all say very strong leader and I admire his willingness to tell the truth and to lead. Secondly, he is -- continues to make the case like we make the case that Saddam Hussein is a threat to peace. We want to keep the peace. We don't trust this man, and that's what the Blair report showed today.

RAY SUAREZ: In Baghdad, an adviser to Saddam Hussein dismissed the British report. He said it was propaganda designed to ready public opinion for war.

SPOKESMAN: His allegations alone, his evidence is short. His evidence is a hodge-podge of half truths, lies, short sighted and naive allegations, which will not hold after a brief investigation by competent and independent experts.

RAY SUAREZ: The Iraqi official promised, again, that UN weapons inspectors would have unfettered access to all sites. We'll have more on this story in a moment. Israeli troops and dozens of tanks pushed into Gaza City overnight. The incursion touched off fierce gun battles, and at least nine Palestinians were killed. The Israelis also destroyed 13 buildings said to be involved in making rockets. In the West Bank, Israeli forces maintained the siege of Yasser Arafat's headquarters, despite a UN Security Council vote early today. It called for a pullback from Palestinian areas. The U.S. abstained, and President Bush said later the Israeli actions had been "not helpful." Gunmen stormed a crowded Hindu temple in western India today, killing at least 30 people and wounding 45. It happened in Gujarat state, where hundreds died in Hindu-Muslim violence earlier this year. Police surrounded the temple with at least three gunmen and several dozen worshippers believed to be still inside. No one claimed responsibility for the attack. The Bush Administration today eased the nation's terror alert status back to code yellow. That's the middle level of the government's five-stage color- coded system. The level was raised a notch to "orange," for high risk, just before the anniversary of September 11. Today, Attorney General Ashcroft said recent arrests here and overseas improved the situation.

JOHN ASHCROFT: We are not saying there is no risk. We still think there is an elevated level of risk. We still believe that al-Qaida is an international network; that it still has the reach that makes it a global in scope and nature; that we know from them that when he we work hard we disrupt their activities and when citizens are alert we disrupt their activities.

RAY SUAREZ: The Senate voted today for an independent commission to investigate the September 11 attacks. The House has endorsed a similar proposal. Last week the President reversed himself and said he'd support the idea. Congressional committees heard today of an eerie warning about Zacarias Moussaoui. He was arrested in August 2001, and later charged in the September 11 plot. A congressional investigator testified today an FBI agent in Minneapolis tried and failed to get a search of Moussaoui's computer. He told superiors he wanted to make sure Moussaoui "did not take control of a plane and fly it into the World Trade Center." At the time, the agent was unaware of the actual plot. The Federal Reserve Board left a key short-term interest rate unchanged today. The Fed said its data suggested the economy could improve without further rate cuts. Separately, the Conference Board, a private research group, reported consumer confidence fell in September for the fourth month in a row. On Wall Street, stocks were down again. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 189 points, or 2.4%, to finish at 7683. It's at its lowest point in four years. The NASDAQ fell two points to 1182. That index is at a six-year low. We'll have more on the economy later in the program. Some of the nations a major airlines asked for more federal help. A year ago Congress approved $15 billion in aid to the industry after the September 11 attacks. Today major carriers told a House hearing the costs of beefed up security were a burden. They said they were aware of criticisms that they need more money.

LEO MULLIN, Chairman and CEO, Delta Air Lines: Several of you have used term bailout to refer to aid. We're not requesting tat aid today. I want to be explicit as we move forward. Instead, we're asking Congress for financial relief from the high security cost stemming from the war on terrorism, which airlines are now bearing, costs which fall to no other U.S. industry.

RAY SUAREZ: The airlines said they expect to lose some $7 billion this year. They did not say exactly how much aid they want from Congress. Federal prosecutors are nowinvestigating accounting practices at Xerox. The world's largest copier company confirmed that last night. In April, Xerox settled a related civil case with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The SEC alleged "accounting tricks" were used to boost earnings and mislead investors. Xerox paid a record $10 million fine. That's it for the News Summary now it's on to British war debate, the Iraq dossier, elected women in Morocco and America's troubled economy.

FOCUS WAR DEBATE

RAY SUAREZ: The British government's intelligence dossier on Iraq, and a debate in the House of Commons: Kwame Holman narrates our report.

KWAME HOLMAN: British Prime Minister Tony Blair has stood almost shoulder to shoulder with President Bush over recent months, as the President has tried to rally international support for tough action against Saddam Hussein. Blair's position has not been a politically popular one with the people of Great Britain, including many within his majority Labour Party, and some within his own cabinet as well. The resignation of one, possibly two, cabinet ministers has been rumored for days.

SPOKESMAN: Order, order.

KWAME HOLMAN: It's against that backdrop that Blair asked the House of Commons be recalled today, a month early from summer recess, so he could disclose the findings of a 50-page British intelligence dossier on Iraq's possession of, and ability to develop, weapons of mass destruction.

TONY BLAIR: It concludes that Iraq has chemical and biological weapons; that Saddam has continued to produce them; that he has existing and active military plans for the use of chemical and biological weapons, which could be activated within 45 minutes, including against his own Shia population; and that he is actively trying to acquire nuclear weapons capability.

KWAME HOLMAN: Blair insisted Saddam Hussein has rebuilt his biological weapons facilities.

TONY BLAIR: The biological agents we eve Iraq can produce include anthrax, botulinum, toxin, aflatoxin, and ricin. All eventually result in excruciatingly painful death.

KWAME HOLMAN: And Blair outlined the steps Saddam Hussein allegedly has taken to develop nuclear weapons.

TONY BLAIR: Saddam has bought or attempted to buy specialized vacuum pumps of the design needed for the gas centrifuge cascade to enrich uranium; an entire magnet production line of the specification for use in the motors and top bearings of gas centrifuges; dual-use products such as anhydrous hydrogen fluoride and fluoride gas, which can be used both in petrochemicals, but also in gas centrifuge cascades; a filament winding machine, which can be used to manufacture carbon fiber gas centrifuge rotors; and has attempted, covertly, to acquire 60,000 or more specialized aluminum tubes, which are subject to strict controls due to their potential use in the construction of gas centrifuges. In addition, we know Saddam has been trying to buy significant quantities of uranium from Africa, though we do not know whether he has been successful.

KWAME HOLMAN: Blair encouraged members of parliament to pay special attention to that part of the dossier dealing with Saddam Hussein's human rights record.

TONY BLAIR; I say, read also about the routine butchering of political opponents; the prison "cleansing" regimes in which thousands die; the torture chambers and hideous penalties supervised by him and his family and detailed by Amnesty International. Read it all, and again, I defy anyone to say that this cruel and sadistic dictator should be allowed any possibility of getting his hands on more chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons of mass destruction.

KWAME HOLMAN: The prime minister addressed the benefits of a regime change in Iraq, and conceded military action might be necessary.

TONY BLAIR: But our purpose is disarmament. No one wants military conflict. The whole purpose of putting this before the United Nations is to demonstrate the united determination of the international community to resolve this in the way it should have been resolved years ago: Through a proper process of disarmament under the UN. Disarmament of all weapons of mass destruction is the demand. One way or another, it must be acceded to.

KWAME HOLMAN: Support for the prime minister came from the Conservative Party, the official opposition, and its leader, Ian Duncan Smith.

IAN DUNCAN SMITH: Mr. Speaker, no one wants to see British troops or any other troops engaged in war. War should be the last resort when all other efforts have failed. But Britain should never shy away from its responsibilities in time of international crisis.

KWAME HOLMAN: But there were questions for the prime minister not addressed in the dossier.

IAN TAYLOR, Conservative Party: Can the Prime Minister reassure us that he has had big conversations with President Bush as to how we handle what will be a very uncertain situation in the Middle East even if Saddam Hussein is removed?

TONY BLAIR: There is a later time when some of these questions should Saddam not comply have to be answered, and these obviously very important questions to which we should give careful thought.

KWAME HOLMAN: Criticism was voiced by the Liberal Democrats. Its leader Charles Kennedy was concerned the prime minister already was favoring military action.

CHARLES KENNEDY, Leader, Liberal Democrats Party: For those of us who have never subscribed to British unilateralism, we are not about to sign up to American unilateralism now either.

KWAME HOLMAN: Kennedy proceeded with a litany of questions and comments that lasted more than eight minutes, testing the patience of Blair s supporters.

CHARLES KENNEDY: And that is why the political emphasis must be on getting the inspectors back in. The worry has to be, from this side of the Atlantic, that even if that had been conceded, that has not been the primary interest to the government of the United States. Finally, Mr. Speaker.. does the prime minister..

SPOKESMEN: Here, here!

CHARLES KENNEDY: ...I'm only asking questions unasked...

SPOKESMEN: Here, here!

TONY BLAIR: The one thing I am sure of is there is no topic of a proper weapons regime going back in there and doing its job unless Saddam knows that the alternative to that is he is forced to comply with the UN will.

KWAME HOLMAN: But throughout the day most of the concern came from Blair s side of the chamber from the Labour Party.

BARRY GARDINER, Labour Party: The prime minister knows that action against Iraq that is supported by the authority of United Nations would be acceptable to the vast majority of MP s across this House Does he agree with me that those mps who oppose independent action must explain why some things they believe to be right and justified when undertaken by nations together becomes wrong and unjustified if we should act alone.

TONY BLAIR: What I would say to my old friend is this: That, well, what I would say is this: That is -- the point that he made is exactly why the United Nations has got to be the way of resolving this issue. That is why I think it was right that President Bush made it very clear to the UN General that the United Nations itself was faced with a challenge and that's why it's important that challenge is met and the UN resolutions are implemented.

KWAME HOLMAN: It appears Blair still has more convincing to do. Members of his own Labour Party are leading a petition drive in the House of Commons expressing their deep unease about military action against Iraq.

RAY SUAREZ: And joining me now to assess the significance of the Iraq dossier, and the information it contains, we're joined by David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a policy think tank in Washington. He's a former nuclear inspector under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the lead group on such inspections. Judith Yaphe, who worked in the Directorate of Intelligence for 20 years in the Office of Near Eastern and Central Asian Analysis. She's now a senior research fellow at the National Defense University in Washington. And retired Colonel Patrick Lang, a former defense intelligence agency officer who covered the Middle East from 1985 to 1992. We'll start by getting from you all some overall impressions of document, its findings and taken as a whole the case it makes. David?

DAVID ALBRIGHT: I think it's very useful information. And it's certainly from my point of view long overdue. But I think the dossier goes through the WMD program systematically and I think gives a good impression of the threat. I think that in Blair's statement, however, I think he left out that the dossier does not view the nuclear threat nearly as direly as the Bush Administration.

RAY SUAREZ: Patrick Lang.

PATRICK LANG: Well, I think you have to consider what kind of document this is exactly. It's not a legal brief. It is in fact an intelligence estimate, which is being used for grander political reasons here. And in an intelligence estimate you are governed by the probabilities of what might be in the light of what is always incomplete evidence. So I heard criticism today that this document can be looked at not really proving the case, but I think that's beside the point because it isn't that kind of document.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, for those of us that haven't written one and haven't read that many, are they conservative in their nature, that is putting only things you know for sure, or throwing out a lot of things that you have been finding, some of which have a high degree of verifiability and some that have a lower degree?

PATRICK LANG: All of estimates that I have worked on in my life have tended toward the conservative side of looking at things. If things seem to not fit a pattern of greater probability so that you feel justified in guiding the government's action by the conclusions you reach they would generally not include that evidence. But it is probabilities -- not proving something beyond a reasonable doubt that governs these documents.

RAY SUAREZ: Judith Yaphe.

JUDITH YAPHE: Well, I ll take a slightly different tack because I wrote a lot of estimates in my career and they are not pretty things to write. At their best an intelligence estimate or finding should give you a sense of what the threat is absent any policy prescription. It should tell you define the problem, tell you what is behind that, what are the key issues and then suggest perhaps what might happen if you should follow certain courses of action but basically it's to get the agreement of the community. Now the problem with that is some administrations are comfortable with consensus meaning that they only want the one view. They don't want to hear where there's differences of opinion. Other administrations like a Team A/Team B approach or if say the State Department doesn't agree with another agency that is feeding into the process, they can take a dissent.

RAY SUAREZ: What do you make of this one?

JUDITH YAPHE: This is not an estimate, in a sense. This is a white paper, which in a sense outlines here is a policy that that -- here is what we think the problem is. Here is what we think Saddam is doing and that's why we think we need to follow a certain kind of policy that lays out the evidence, much if which is based on either intelligence and/or open source material, much of which -- nothing stays secret for very long anyway but much of which has been validated, verified by the press, by open sources. So it lays that out and it says because of these reasons this is the course of action. Now the audience it would be nice to convince the world at large but I don't think you re going to convince say the Europeans I was going to say the Euros -- or the neighbors. Those people you need to convince them if you want to get their support.

RAY SUAREZ: Iraq's neighbors?.

JUDITH YAPHE: Moral support -- I mean either Iraq's neighbors -- if you need logistic support to conduct an operation or moral support say from the Europeans or anybody else. These are basically internal use documents in the sense they are meant to convince a domestic audience. Now there they might but I think we tend to overplay the influence that documents like this have.

RAY SUAREZ: Was there anything new, Patrick Lang, or was it a lot of things, as Judith Yaphe suggests, that have already been covered in other places and this merely brought it altogether?

PATRICK LANG: No. I think it's a compilation of the kinds of data she is talking about arranged so as to be as persuasive as possible in the absence of really complete information that -- the two governments case. Basically the United States is clearly involved in this to some extent. And their case against Iraq is logical and people should accept it. Now I think for people who wish to believe this case it would be very easy to accept. For those who do not wish to believe it the missing bits of data will be sufficient to dismiss it.

RAY SUAREZ: You talked a little bit, Dave Albright, about the difference between the nuclear track and the biological and chemical parts of the report. Often they re all lumped together under the same umbrella but here they are differentiated out, and to what effect?

DAVID ALBRIGHT: Oh, I think the case on the biological and chemical is much stronger. I think there's a lot of uncertainty about what Iraq has accomplished on getting nuclear weapons. And I think what the information-- in the nuclear section some of it is new -- I would say to both the public add the inspectors about some of the procurements and that while those items didn't go and they may not be linked to centrifuges in total they paint a picture that Iraq is trying to make progress on getting nuclear weapons. Now, where there's a difference, I think, is how close are they? And I think the British view expressed in the document is that we have a lot more than what the Bush administration says. And I think the bottom line on the British position though is that the UN should get the inspectors back in, there should be a strengthened inspection program, and Iraq in a sense should be given one last chance. And if they don't comply, then military force would be justified. And I also see that as a difference between the U.S. and British approaches that there was no discussion in this document about preemptive military action and it didn't seem that they were trying to build a case for preemptive military action but really for a very strong confrontation with Iraq through the Security Council.

RAY SUAREZ: Placing that date for a completed nuclear weapon further out than the United States does, is that a credible conclusion, first off, and how significant is it, in your view?

JUDITH YAPHE: Not being a nuclear scientist how would I know how to judge that? I think it's probably credible. When people estimate it depends on what they get fissile material because I believe the scientists say they virtually have a device ready, if I m correct. I may be wrong. I trust David for that. But I think the point is -- we did talk about the delivery system, which is in terms of their missiles. I found the British report very interesting, in effect saying that they were perfecting, they had made progress on longer range missiles -- we know they successfully tested the Al Samoud two years ago, which has a 150 kilometer range. That's allowed under the UN Security Council resolutions. But to quote my favorite military commander, General Zinni, it doesn't take long, it doesn t take much to go from short range to long range. That is an important thing, and the other thing I found interesting in that document was the I think you called it the usage who approves? Who controls the decision making and who approves? Because the documents don't say it but it all points to a strongly centralized decision making progress, which we know from papers found after the Gulf War decisions were to be made in Baghdad unless and except you couldn't get to Baghdad you couldn t get any and then commanders in the field, first of all, had the -- were given the authority to authorize attack and we also learned after the fact that the deterrence didn't really work 100% as those who read James Baker s book might believe, but they had arm missiles with CW chemical weapons warheads, which were found dispersed later. So who do you pitch your message to? One of the things that comes out of not just these White papers, but I think statements by Secretary Rumsfeld -- we have got to convince Iraqis not to want to use these things too.

RAY SUAREZ: Having read the conclusions, Patrick Lang, where does it lead you -- to a support for an inspection regime? Today the Canadian government said that after looking over the dossier, they were more convinced that sending the inspectors back in was the right thing to do.

PATRICK LANG: Well, I think we have certainly arrived at a point in the politics of the world in this matter that it is inevitable now that we'll have to function through the mechanism of the UN trying to sort out its business and establishing a very difficult and intrusive inspection regime for Iraq. I personally don t believe that s going to succeed because I am convinced from past evidence and experience that the Iraqis are going to do everything they can to hide these programs and you can't expect a country against its will. But, nevertheless, I think the process, the political process of the world's consensus building in the UN, it will have to be gone through all the way.

RAY SUAREZ: Does it strength the hand of the inspection fans?

PATRICK LANG: I think it does. There is two parts to the inspections: one is to make sure the inspectors can do their job, that they re not inhibited from going anywhere they need -- with having proper equipment access to the Iraqis; they need to interview I would say without the security minders. The other part is we have to have a clear understanding of what non-compliance means. In the 1990s that was lost. I think if this inspection process is going to start, people have to understand that if Iraq doesn't cooperate, then they haven't complied. We shouldn't have a situation or tolerate a situation where inspectors go some place and they are just told to wait outside while the Security Council kind of spins its wheels, but the inspection force should go in and know that if it doesn t get into a site, or if it sees non-cooperation, which could be a series of lies detected through interviewing Iraqis, they should report back to the Security Council Iraq hasn t complied and then leave Baghdad basically.

RAY SUAREZ: Meant to be a justification for military action -- does it end up being an endorsement of inspections, Judith Yaphe?

JUDITH YAPHE: I guess it could be if they were to succeed. I think one of the problems is we re not just talking about one inspection. But there has to be what -- the first inspection which is a baseline and then additional inspections to go out. It takes many inspections in other words -- many different teams. We will know, on the one hand, with the first inspection if they are going to be allowed to proceed to do full and unfettered inspections so there may be a clear answer of no there, in which case UN, thank you very much, we tried the inspection route; it didn t work. But I don t know that the I think it s an important question -- is the our administration or any administration or the UN willing to wait this process out to see if it will work because it's not going to be inspecting in the middle of October and we'll know. If that one goes, you re going to have many more. So that could push this way down the road. Does our administration have the patience to wait for that process to work it itself out?

RAY SUAREZ: Guests, thank you all.

FOCUS ELECTING WOMEN

RAY SUAREZ: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight: electing women in Morocco and a look at this country s economy.

RAY SUAREZ: Enrique Cerna of KCTS-Seattle has the Morocco story.

WOMAN (Translated): When we talk of the next election, we must talk about the past and look ahead to the future.

ENRIQUE CERNA: Reporter: Recently, 60 women gathered in a Casablanca hotel, to learn how to run for political office. They're involved in a historic movement in Morocco, to expand the role of women in the nation's political system.

WOMAN: Let's do a checkup of what we need to do to get started.

ENRIQUE CERNA: On this day, they were being trained by a team of women from the United States.

MARYAM MONTAGUE: We have an incredible group of women here today. We've gone to the political parties in parliament, and we have asked them to send their best and their brightest. They come from all kinds of backgrounds. We have doctors, lawyers, teachers, you name it, and they come from all over Morocco.

WOMAN ( Translated ): Politicians today cannot do without the participation of women.

ENRIQUE CERNA: As in most Muslim countries, the political system in Morocco has long been dominated by men. Of the 325 members of Morocco's parliament, only two are women. ( Chanting and applause ) But the country's 39-year-old king, Mohamed VI, who has been pushing democratic reforms in Morocco, wants that to change. In May, Morocco's parliament, which has limited powers and authorities, approved a proposal, backed by the king, that sets aside 30 seats for the election of women in the September national elections.

MOHAMMED ACHAARI, Minister of Culture ( Translated ): The king thinks it's only fair to have women be largely represented in the parliament because, after all, they constitute 50% of the population, and they should therefore be represented accordingly.

ENRIQUE CERNA: This act by Morocco's parliament is rare in the Arab world, where the percentage of women in elected positions is minimal. It forced Morocco's political parties to find strong candidates for election to parliament. Fatima Bellmouden says it's long overdue. She is one of the two women in the current parliament.

FATIMA BELLMOUDEN ( Translated ): This is extremely important for Moroccan women in the upcoming national election. The parties, in general, have always been filled by men, so this is an opportunity to break this patriarchal system in this country.

CATHY ALLEN, Center for Women and Democracy: Morocco is looking at this election to put it on the map. If these women are elected, it the parliamentary rules are followed, what happens is that they become the first nation in the Arab 40 that actually will have 10% or more of their parliament as women. Most of these countries have 2.3% or less.

ENRIQUE CERNA: Morocco is considered a moderate Islamic nation. Of its 30 million people, 98% are Muslim. For the most part, Morocco's constitutional monarchy has had friendly ties with the United States. While recently critical of the U.S. Foreign policy in Middle East, King Mohammed strongly condemned Islamic extremists for the September 11 attack on America.

In a post-September 11 world, it's so important to reach out to moderate Muslim, democratic states.

ENRIQUE CERNA: Maryam Montague is resident director for the National Democratic Institute in Morocco.

MARYAM MONTAGUE: We are all very busy women. How will we find the time to campaign?

ENRIQUE CERNA: NDI is a Washington, D.C., Based non- profit organization that promotes international democracy projects. It co-sponsored the candidate training with the Moroccan women's political group, and brought in trainers from the University of Washington Center for Women and Democracy.

MARYAM MONTAGUE: And Morocco is really striving to be a third way between an authoritarian regime on one side, and an Islamic fundamentalist regime on the other side. It's really striving to be a progressive, modern state.

ENRIQUE CERNA: Morocco is a county of contrast. Many of its people are fluent in Arabic and French, the language of Morocco's colonial ruler that still has close ties with this north African country. In urban areas, like Casablanca, western influences abound -- from outdoor advertisements promoting American movies and consumer products, to rooftops crowded with satellite dishes, and young women wearing jeans and leather. Still, the traditional Arab Islamic roots are profound in a country whose ruler is a direct descendent of the prophet Mohammed. For Morocco and its people, this is a crucial period, especially with the upcoming elections.

MARYAM MONTAGUE: And although there have been elections for parliament, up until now, they've been questionable. In fact, many political observers believe they have been completely rigged.

ENRIQUE CERNA: It's believed that over a 15-year period, the former minister of interior played a significant role in election irregularity, then human rights abuses. After ascending to the thrown in 1989, King Mohammed removed the minister from his post, in a crackdown on corruption and government abuse. For veteran political activist Nouzha Skalli, these are the days she has been waiting for.

NOUZHA SKALLI ( Translated ): In the beginning, my involvement in politics was for general reasons, but then I started realizing how important it is to promote women's rights. So I devoted a lot of my time to promoting women's political participation, and now seeing that 30 women can make it in to parliament is a real achievement.

ENRIQUE CERNA: A pharmacist by trade, Nouzha is a locally elected representative in Casablanca. Politics runs in her family, as her sister is the other female member of parliament, along with Fatima Bellmouden. Nouzha can often be found visiting her constituents, to hear their needs and concerns.

NOUZHA SKALLI ( Translated ): I have a record, in terms of women who have actually run for office. Since 1976, I have run for literally every single legislative and local election in the country. You can't imagine the satisfaction I derived from just being in an election campaign. Like when a little girl, for example, comes and holds my hand and smiles at me, I feel emotionally moved because I feel I have given hope for her to see women in parliament.

WOMAN: You got to make sure you got all the important deadlines of when everything has got to be filed...

ENRIQUE CERNA: Unlike Nouzha Skalli, most of the Moroccan women at this candidate training are new to campaigning.

WOMAN: Every woman will need a dozen good friends to help them succeed in campaigning.

ENRIQUE CERNA: So the American trainers give them the basics, from deadlines to fundraising; press relations to planning a campaign strategy...

WOMAN: Stand over there. Okay.

ENRIQUE CERNA: ...And how to deliver a campaign pitch.

SPOKESPERSON: Attention!

CATHY ALLEN: They really are very strong- willed women. Don't be angry, don't be angry.

ENRIQUE CERNA: Cathy Allen of the Center for women and Democracy:

CATHY ALLEN: While they are talking about whey women should be elected, you've got to realize that most populations are going to be scared to death if they come off really stridently. So we try to tell them, you know, "now, be reasonable, don't look like you're trying to change the world in one day. Settle for just changing one village in Morocco, so that the kids can read."

ENRIQUE CERNA: Bouchra el-Mourabiti understood that message well. The 32-year-old philosophy professor says getting involved in a politics is a religious and national obligation of every Moroccan women.

BOUCHRA EL-MOURABITI ( Translated ): In Islam, women are equal to men. Women were the first to support the prophet Mohammed. I would say, confidently, that men who are in power are the results of women who educated them-- literally.

ENRIQUE CERNA: Nouzha Skalli will make another run for parliament. Her party has put her at the top of their list for the September 27 national vote. She hopes Bouchra El-Mourabiti will get the same opportunity. Both feel this is a new era for Morocco, its women and the nation's political system.

FOCUS UNCERTAIN ECONOMY

RAY SUAREZ: Now, a look at this country's troubled economy, and to Terence Smith.

TERENCE SMITH: There were more indications today that the faltering U.S. economy shows few signs of regaining its step. Consumer confidence fell for the fourth month in a row to its lowest level since November. Also today, the government reported that last year the U.S. poverty rate increased a fraction to 11.7%, rising for the first time in eight years, and median household income declined 2.2%. And while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its meeting today, it issued a statement that said "Considerable uncertainty persists" about the economy, "owing in part to the emergence of heightened geopolitical risks." On Wall Street, the bears continue to growl, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ at a six-year low, and the Dow Jones Industrial showing little signs of a rebound.

Here to help us make sense of it all are William Spriggs, an economist and director of the National Urban League Institute for opportunity and equality, a Washington-based research group. Nancy Kimmelman is chief economist at SEI investments, a management firm. And Ellen Frank, professor of economics at Emmanuel College in Boston. Welcome to all of you.

Nancy Kimmelman, what do you make of all this gloomy news, what does it say to you about the general state of economy?

NANCY KIMMELMAN: Well, the economy was in recession last year and as a result of that the poverty rate increased and incomes fell. This year the economy would seem to be in a state of recovery phase. It's not unnatural in a recovery phase for there to be one or two quarters of sluggish growth even right at the outset but clearly the declines in the financial market are having a devastating effect on consumer confidence and on investor confidence. We have lost faith in corporate America; we ve lost faith to some extent in government's ability to keep our economy on track. And so it does seem as if things are falling apart. I'm not convinced that the economy is in another recession or in a double dip recession but it certainly feels like that to a lot of people. The confidence numbers show it and we all feel generally very unsatisfied by the progress our economy has made this year.

TERENCE SMITH: Ellen Frank, signs of a double dip recession in your opinion?

ELLEN FRANK: Well, things were looking up over the summer. In July and August there were some good signs, especially with consumer spending and auto sales thanks to the 0% financing deals that were being offered but the one thing that we haven't seen over the past year is any real rebound in capital equipment spending. And that to me is really the critical component of any kind of prolonged or sustainable growth trend. Until we see businesses start to purchase new equipment again we're going to be in a very tenuous, very unstable economy. And there are a lot of things that are suppressing that kind of spending right now. First of all, there's overcapacity from the boom of the 90 s. Secondly, there is a lot of concern about what is going to happen to oil prices in the near and not so near future. I don't think that the possibility of a war is making anybody feel very good right now and of course the financial system is in a very unsettled place right now, which is making it difficult to obtain credit. So all of these things I think are holding back demand. We're too reliant right now on consumer spending and there's a limit to how much consumers can pull us out of a stagnant economy.

TERENCE SMITH: William Spriggs, what do you think is affects and is affecting the consumer confidence?

WILLIAM SPRIGGS: Well, a lot of people got spoiled by the expansion of the 90s and have not been able to see bad news. I think it took a while for people to see that the economy really was turning down. After the supposed recovery began, we still have not seen any of the job growth that you would expect with a recovery. So the two million jobs that were lost when the recession began simply have not reappeared. And people who were used to a churning the labor market, seen people lose jobs, quickly regain them, I think are now settling into the realization that jobs aren t going to come back that quickly. That is making people a little more gloomy. And then all of the talk of war the uncertainty is making people even more apprehensive. And then the debt that people have taken on the whole recovery has been financed by consumers and unlike the U.S. Government, which can go into debt for long periods, individuals cannot. And so I think the real worry would be that with a lack of optimism on the part of consumers from a belief that jobs aren't going to necessarily come back, if we see them try and pull their own house in order as to their debt load, then we ll have some real problems.

TERENCE SMITH: Nancy Kimmelman one bright light in this of course are very low interest rates really at a 40-year low. You would think that that would encourage some consumer confidence, would you not?

NANCY KIMMELMAN: You would and in fact what we have seen is that auto sales are strong, perked up of course by 0% financing rates that the auto manufacturers have offered. And the housing market remains strong. Even though we have seen a correction in asset prices in virtually every other sector of the economy we have yet to see housing prices correct in any meaningful sense. So low interest rates are having a boost on the housing and the auto industry, and that really is what s holding our economy together in here. The other point to remember is that the reason our debt levels are increasing, the reason consumers are taking on more debt is that interest rates are so low. When you have 0% financing rates for cars, you are effectively giving consumers an incentive to borrow. Their real interest rate is actually negative. You are giving them money to borrow. So it makes sense that they would take on added debt, that they would increase the amount that they owe in a very low interest rate environment like we re in right now. But, you know, confidence is more tenuous than that. Confidence is a function of not just interest rates, not just the case of economic growth; it s also a function of the President's popularity. It's also a function of our geo-political situation and feeling somewhat alone in our battle, aside from Great Britain, feeling alone in our battle against Saddam Hussein and perhaps against terrorism. And confidence is clearly connected to the financial markets, which are clearly unstable. You know investors and consumers are one in the same so when investors lose confidence, consumers lose confidence, too.

TERENCE SMITH: Ellen Frank, that talk of war or as the Fed put it in its wonderfully elliptical phrase, geopolitical risks, how does that play on consumer confidence and investor confidence since wars have been known to stimulate the economy in the past?

ELLEN FRANK: Well, wars have stimulated in the economy in the past. Specifically the Vietnam War was great for the U.S. economy. You drafted thousands of young men and relieved pressure on the labor market. Unemployment rates were at historic lows for many years during the Vietnam War. World War II was great for much the same reason. There was massive government spending, deficit financed, government spending financed by borrowing so it didn't take out of consumers pockets and form higher taxes. But I don't think the proposed war with Iraq is that kind of war. We're not talking about a massive commitment to ground troops and weapons. We're look at a more limited war. I mean, I think we're looking at a more limited war. There's also a lot of conflict in Washington right now over fiscal policy and how things should be paid for and whether things should be paid for with higher taxes or whether things should be paid for through cuts in other programs. We're hearing very, very mixed messages from the Bush Administration on this issue right now. And the other thing of course is that the Iraq war has the potential and many people are worried that it has the potential to become in fact Tony Blair used this language -- a worldwide conflagration that it would impact the entire world in a very dangerous way. It also has the potential to raise oil prices significantly, which is not good for the U.S. or any other economy. So I don't see the war -- right now I think the potential for war and fear of war is holding back people's willingness to spend and take on long term invest investments.

TERENCE SMITH: William Spriggs, interpret for us this increase in the poverty rate, first time in eight years it s gone up, this is a change. What does this reflect?

WILLIAM SPRIGGS: Well, it's the number for 2001, so it reflects the beginning of recession. I think that's the key. A lot of people fooled themselves into believing because the labor market was generating thousands -- millions of jobs a year that we had solved the poverty problem because everybody was getting a job neglecting that when those jobs go away poverty will reappear. It's the tip of the iceberg because this year the share of people holding jobs is lower than last year; the recession has deepened from the labor market perspective. So this year we should actually believe that poverty is at a higher rate than what was reported for last year and that's part of problem here. People aren't seeing the government respond to this growing problem that they see with their neighbors, with their kids maybe not leaving so quickly from the house so I think that we have to have some sort of response from the government to this increase of poverty so that we gain some confidence that they are on top of it. The last recession we had in the 90s at least in the African-American community poverty rates continued to increase for everybody they increased for four years.

TERENCE SMITH: So is the suggestion that this is most punishing for those at the lower end of the economic scale?

WILLIAM SPRIGGS: It's been a little deeper than at the very bottom. Clearly, those at the bottom have suffered. We saw the poverty rates inch up but not leap up. They did so for some people in a strange way. For instance, family poverty rates jumped up quite a bit. African American married couples actually had the rate jump up by a huge amount. So there are surprising groups of people who had their poverty rate go up because of the loss of one earner. And that shows how tenuous it is for those at the bottom. The other thing that showed up was the increase in inequality that took place in 2001. We had halted the big increase that inequality that had been taking place by having such a big, big expansion that benefited a lot of people at the bottom, and now we see those numbers showing once against that those at the top 20% of the population get over half of the income in the United States. And that's an unprecedented number.

TERENCE SMITH: Nancy Kimmelman, the question of the Bush tax cut and whether that -- has that shown any impact on the economy that you can measure or see one way or the other?

NANCY KIMMELAN: I think the jury is still out on that but, you know, as with all tax cuts it's very difficult to actually find the impact on spending. And this tax cut that we just went through is no exception.

TERENCE SMITH: All right. Thank you all three very much.

ESSAY - CHOICES

RAY SUAREZ: Finally tonight, essayist Richard Rodriguez considers what makes Americans middle class.

RICHARD RODRIGUEZ: What makes America a middle class nation is less a matter of dollars than it is the freedom to dream. "If I take that new job," "if I go to night school," "if I get a patent for my invention or find a publisher for my novel"-- who knows? Some day I will live here, alongside the very rich in upper Broadway, in San Francisco. Every time I have been to Houston, Texas, my host, or hostess, has asked if I want to see River Oaks, the neighborhoods of palaces belonging to the nouveau riche, and the inherited rich, and the gay divorcee. Even now, when so many houses in River Oaks belong to disgraced executives of Enron, I do not tire of this tour. For middle class Americans, the rich at Beverly Hills, or Palm Beach, or Park Avenue uphold a standard for our dreaming. There are houses of concrete and bricks confirm that our dreams are not near air. (Stock bells ringing) Only lately, something has happened to middle-class Americans, and you can measure the change out of the climbing Dow Jones Average. Dreaming has turned to sleeplessness at 4:00 in the morning. Russia has fabulously wealthy people, as Mexico does, as Nigeria, but the strength of a nation is not measured by a number of Giorgio Armani boutiques it supports, it is measured by the number of dreams it entertains. In America's middle class scheme of things, the self-made fortune was always better than the inherited fortune. The self-made rich confirm middle-class ambition-- "she was once like us." We middle class Americans certainly like it that Warren Buffett, one of America's richest men, lives just down the block in Omaha, but perhaps we do not like it too much when the very rich too closely resemble us.

ACTRESS: Hey, you know an awful lot of tricks. You are not a professional magician, are you?

ACTOR: No, I'm not a magician.

ACTRESS: Oh...

RICHARD RODRIGUEZ: From the novels of Henry James to Orson Welles' "Citizen Kane," middle-class Americans have mocked the pathos of being nouveau riche ;not knowing which fork to use at the banquet. Ralph Lauren, who comes from a past as humble as mine, has become very rich indeed, convincing middle-class Americans that if we buy a blue shirt with a polo player stitched on, we will look as gloriously bored and as golden as the old rich of Long Island. In the go-go 1990s, the business channel, CNBC, would display a tally of how many new millions or billions tech executives had accumulated over five days. In those years, friends of mine saw their portfolios expand, expand beyond dreaming.

SINGING: And if I had a million dollars...

RICHARD RODRIGUEZ: Suddenly, the 20- year-old was a millionaire many times over. What seemed not to trouble the newly rich was an elementary principal of economics called inflation. If everyone is a millionaire, then a million dollars will pay for less and less. There is a flaw, but certain frustration built into our system of capitalism is something we recognize perhaps more easily when there is only one bemused winner of the super- lotto. We shrug at our inevitable loss.

SPOKESMAN: You gotta have people, like you, go to jail for what you did.

RICHARD RODRIGUEZ: But middle-class Americans are disgusted by recent allegations of corruption in the boardroom. Our politicians, who used to call many of these famed CEO s and CFO s by first name, our politicians tell us they will fix it certainly before the November elections. On the other hand, a retired executive once employed at a venerable New York bank tells me that I am naive; didn't I realize the game in America was always fixed? Maybe what unites the upperclass with the working class in America is this dark knowledge. Certainly among the working class, or the stoic, or the angry, I have long heard that the fix is in. That's what my immigrant father believed: That the game in America is rigged. As a boy, I turned away from his voice. Long before I had the money to prove it, I was middle class. I live in a nation of dreams. I'm Richard Rodriguez.

RECAP

RAY SUAREZ: Again, the major developments of the day. Britain charged Iraq has chemical and biological weapons ready for use on less than an hour's notice. Iraq dismissed the claims. And gunmen stormed a Hindu temple in western India, killing at least 30 people and wounding 45. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 189 points to finish at 76 .83 the lowest point in four years. The NASDAQ is at a six year low. And before we go let me fix a mistake I made: Earlier we said the Federal Reserve suggested today the economy could improve without further tax cuts; I should have said interest rate cuts. Sorry about that. We'll see you again online and here tomorrow evening. I m Ray Suarez. Thanks and good night.