The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. LEHRER: Good evening. The Middle East story remains the lead story of the day. President Bush proposed suspending Egypt's $7 billion debt to the United States. The U.S. Navy seized its first Iraqi cargo ship and more Western hostages left Baghdad. We'll have the details in a moment. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: On tonight's Newshour we have an extended [FOCUS - VIEW FROM STATE] look at Sec. Baker's testimony to Congress, then ambassadors [FOCUS - CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE] of Egypt and Jordan, a United Nations official, and a refugee effort look at a secondary crisis, the plight of tens of thousands of refugees stranded in desert camps [FOCUS - CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE]. Finally [CONVERSATION] in our series of special conversations, Former U.N. Ambassador Jeane Kirkpatrick. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: Pres. Bush today asked Congress to forgive Egypt's $7 billion debt to the United States. White House Spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said it would be a symbol of our appreciation to Egypt's Pres. Mubarak for his role in the Gulf crisis. The debt is mostly the result of U.S. arms sales to Egypt. The decision came after Mr. Bush met with his cabinet at the White House this morning. Fitzwater then briefed reporters on why the President wanted to help Egypt.

MARLIN FITZWATER, White House Spokesman: The first is the fact that they are a participant in the multinational forces, that Pres. Mubarak has been a strong leader in the Arab world and facing the aggression of Saddam Hussein, that he has sent innumerable resources and with great courage to the task of stopping Saddam Hussein and secondly that there is an inordinate and immense impact on his country by the conflict there, and that his country is suffering as a result of this. Both factors come together in a way that the President simply feels that they deserve this forgiveness and it is a symbol of our appreciation for the leadership that he has provided.

MR. LEHRER: Fitzwater said other countries which have been hurt economically by the crisis might get similar debt forgiveness. Sen. Patrick Leahy, chairman of the Senate's Foreign Aid Subcommittee, said he expected requests from Israel, Turkey, Greece, the Philippines, Morocco, and Pakistan, among others. Also today the Iraqi government announced it would suspend payments on its 30 to 35 billion dollar foreign debt. Most of it is owed to the United States and its Western allies as well as Japan and the Soviet Union. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Jordan today made another appeal for help with the refugee crisis. Nearly half a million refugees, the majority of them Asians who were working in Kuwait, have fled to Jordan since the Iraqi invasion. Tens of thousands still remain in border camps that are short on food and water. White House Spokesman Fitzwater said the U.S. is trying to work out an aid package to help Jordan deal with the problem. Jordan's King Hussein will meet again with Iraqi Pres. Saddam Hussein either tomorrow or Thursday. The King announced his plans during a meeting in Rome with Italy's foreign minister.

MR. LEHRER: The U.S. Navy seized its first Iraqi ship today. The cargo vessel was en route from Srilanka to Iraq. The Navy stopped and boarded it in the Gulf of Oman as it was heading to the Persian Gulf. Pentagon Spokesman Pete Williams described what happened.

PETE WILLIAMS, Defense Department Spokesman: The merchant ship, which is an Iraqi registered cargo ship, the Xanubia, reported it was bound for the Iraqi port of Basra with a cargo of tea when it was intercepted by the guided missile destroyer U.S.S. Goldsborough, about 6:30 in the morning Persian Gulf time today. The decision to board the ship was made after it refused orders from the Goldsborough to either return to its port of origin or to divert to a non-Iraqi port. The team boarded the Xanubia without meeting resistance and will stay aboard the ship until it reaches its new destination. There were no other incidents or injuries. There was no resistance to the boarding.

MR. LEHRER: A Kuwaiti cargo ship has been detained by U.S. Customs in the port of Newark, New Jersey. Officials are going through containers on board to see if there's anything in them that could be headed for Iraq.

MR. MacNeil: More than a hundred Western hostages were allowed out of Iraq today on an Iraqi Airways flight to Jordan. Most of them are West Germans. Another 170 people, mostly Arabs and Asians, were on another flight, and a third flight, with Britons and Americans aboard, was expected to leave for Amman. Three hundred other British women and children in Kuwait were put on buses for the 500 mile trip to Baghdad. We have a report from Baghdad by Brent Sadler of Independent Television News.

MR. SADLER: The main convoy of British dependents from Kuwait was still several hours from Baghdad when these Iraqi-based women and children prepared to leave. They would be homeward bound before the main group arrived. The British embassy has sent scouts on to the outskirts of town to await seven coaches and over three hundred people coming from Kuwait.

HAROLD WALKER, British Ambassador to Kuwait: They're all women and children. We have no reports that they are generally in a bad condition, but clearly things have been getting worse in Kuwait, itself.

MR. SADLER: By late afternoon, arrangements for flying out around 40 British families on an American-chartered Iraqi Airways plane were complete. For the second time in four days, the airport was filled with unhappiness.

BRITISH WIFE: I'm very concerned about leaving Barry behind, very sad, and I don't really want to leave him.

MR. MacNeil: Officials at the U.S. embassy in Baghdad said 28 American hostages are also attempting to leave Iraq on that same flight.

MR. LEHRER: Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze today called for an international conference on the Persian Gulf crisis. He said it should also focus on the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Lebanese civil war. He said Israel's attendance would be important and could lead to an improvement in Soviet-Israeli relations. Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir welcomed the conference suggestion but opposed any discussion of the Palestinian issue at that meeting. FOCUS - VIEW FROM STATE

MR. LEHRER: Secretary of State Baker today made his first major public statement on the Middle East crisis. He told the House Foreign Affairs Committee he wants to put the Bush Administrations Persian Gulf goals and actions in a global context. Here are excerpts.

SEC. BAKER: Iraq's unprovoked aggression is a political test of how the post cold war world will work. Amidst the revolutions sweeping the globe and the transformation of East West relations. I think, that we stand at a critical juncture in history. The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait is one of the defining moments of a new era. A new era full of promise but also one that is replete with new challenges. We are entering an era which ethnic and sectarian identities can easily breath new violence and new conflict. It is an era in which new hostilities and threats could erupt as misguided leaders are tempted to assert regional dominance before the ground rules of a new order can be accepted. Accordingly Mr. Chairman we face a simple choice. Do we want to live in a world where aggression is made less likely because it is met with a powerful response from the International Community, a world where civilized rules of conduct fly or are we willing to live in a World where aggression can go unchecked, where aggression succeeds because we can not some how muster the collective will to challenge it. Sadly Saddam Hussein's attack on Kuwait will not be the last act of aggression that international society will face. So long as ruthless aggressors remain the reality of international life is that such predatory deigns are going to emerge from time to time. But the current crisis is the first opportunity to limit such dangers, to reinforce the standards for civilized behavior found in the United Nations charter and to help shape a more peaceful international order built on the promise of recent trends in Europe and elsewhere. Second from a strategic stand point we must show that intimidation and force are not successful ways of doing business in the volatile Middle East or for that matter anywhere else. Third and perhaps most obvious what is at stake economically is the dependence of the World on access to the energy resources of the Persian Gulf. The effects on our economy and our people as I mentioned are already being felt. But this is not about increases in the price of a gallon of gas at the local service station. It is not just a narrow question of the flow of oil from KUwait and Iraq. It is rather about a dictator who acting alone and unchallenged could strangle the global economic order. Determining by fiat where we all enter a recession or even the darkness of a depression. Our strategy is to lead a global political alliance to isolate Iraq, politically, economically and militarily. In this way Mr. Chairman we aim to make Iraq pay such a high price for its aggression that it will be forced to withdraw from Kuwait and release Americans and others held hostage. This in turn, of course, would allow the restoration of Kuwait's legitimate government, Iraq's aggression can not stand. The line in the sands of Arabia is also Mr. Chairman a line in time. By crossing in to Kuwait Saddam Hussein took a dangerous step back in history. Clearly Saddam Hussein thought that his crime would pay. But the World. Mr, Chairman, has decided otherwise. He must not be allowed to hold on to what he stole. The President has made our position very clear. The World must stand United to defend the principles enshrined in the United Nations Charter. In this effort, Mr. Chairman, Members of the Committee, America must lead and our people must understand that. We remain the one nation that has the necessary political, military and economic instruments at our disposal to catalyze a successful response by the international community.

REP. LEE HAMILTON, [D] Indiana: Is it also an American objective in the Persian Gulf to remove Saddam Hussein from power?

SEC. BAKER: Removing Saddam Hussein from power is not one of those stated objectives as the President has articulated nor that the United Nations resolutions have addressed. We have made it clear, however, that our quarrel is not with the Iraqi people, it is not with the people of Iraq. It is with Saddam Hussein and the people around him who have embarked on this course of unprovoked aggression.

REP. HAMILTON: With regard to Kuwait the restoration of Kuwait's legitimate government include the restoration of the El Saba Family?

SEC. BAKER: It refers to the restoration of the government the way that it existed the day of the invasion, Mr. Hamilton, because that was the legitimate government of Kuwait and we do not want to send any signal whatsoever that we nor our friends in this effort around the World would acquiesce in achieving political change any where through the use of force or unprovoked aggression.

REP. STEPHEN SOLARZ, [D] New York: I would like to know how you would respond to those who have argued that if Saddam Hussein should unconditionally withdraw his forces from Kuwait that it would be a rather pudic victory to the international community given the extent that would leave intact his nuclear weapons, chemical weapons and biological weapons programs not to mention his mention his million man army and military structure as a whole.

SEC. BAKER: Mr. Solarz I certainly think that the circumscribing of that potential is very important and that is what I meant when I said in any event we will have to give consideration with working with others to create a new security structure for the region. I think that is likely to be required even if there is a pull back from Kuwait.

REP. SOLARZ: It is possible to eliminate the nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs potential in Iraq with out destroying them?

SEC. BAKER: It is not possible to eliminate them with out destroying them. It is conceivably possible, I think, Mr. Solarz to come up with a security structure that would make it so clearly to the detriment of any subsequent leader or even the present leader to use or even contemplate using those weapons that there would be very little risk that they be used. I think that is possible.

REP. PETER KOSTMAYER, [D] Pennsylvania: It seems to me that the price of oil is an issue and I don't think that young men and young women of this country are prepared to spill their blood in the sands of Saudi Arabia to keep the price of gasoline cheap. To the extent that is a factor it is a mistake and I wonder if you could respond to that. While it may not be the dominate factor I think that you would agree that it is a factor?

SEC. BAKER: We are not there in order to keep the price of gasoline low as you put it although I do think that it is important that the American people realize that Saddam Hussein started out with ten percent of the oil reserves of the World. He gobbled up another ten percent when he took Kuwait and if he were to move just a few hundred miles down the Arabian Peninsula he would have 46 percent of the entire world's oil reserves and he would be in a position to yank the economic life line of most if not all the other nations of the World in a pretty vigorous way as I indicated in my opening statement.

REP. KOSTMAYER: I would like to ask you how long can this simply go on. What if Saddam Hussein simply stays where he is there is no aggression on his part. We stay where we are. What happen over the next couple of weeks that happened in the last few. Does this go on for months or years. Where does this end?

SEC. BAKER: I can't tell you how long we might be there. It might depend on a whole host of factors.

REP. KOSTMAYER: Years. What if nothing happens. No movement as there really hasn't been?

SEC. BAKER: I really don't want to speculate on that because I would ask you the question if we are going to build a new regional security structure what role should the United States play in that new region or that new regional structure. Certainly we ought to play some role and therefore there would be some presence, some continuing presence there. May be it wouldn't be a ground force presence. May be it would be a Naval presence. I mean these are questions that are going to have to be addressed down the line and they are questions that are going to have to be studied considerably.

MR. LEHRER: Still to come on the Newshour tonight the refugee problem in the Middle East, a conversation with Jeane Kirkpatrick and the other news of the day. FOCUS - CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE

MR. MacNeil: Now we look at the secondary crisis that has been building up behind the headlines about the blockade of Iraq, troop movements, and Western hostages. Tens and thousands of Arabs and Asians have fled from Kuwait, creating an enormous refugee problem for Jordan. These reports from Independent Television News correspondents show how the congestion has built up day by day in desert camps near the Iraqi border.

JEREMY THOMPSON [Aug. 23]: Daybreak and 16,000 refugees pour into Jordan. Some fled Kuwait a week ago. Most are penniless Egyptian laborers. All are exhausted and hungry. The Jordanians closed the border behind them, but their efforts are chaotic. The refugees try frantically to get their transit visas quickly. The struggle for free bread is cruder still. A British woman who fled Kuwait passed through the camps today.

BRITISH WOMAN: When I reached the Egyptian camp, I cried. I begged my husband to go back to Kuwait. I thought we would die there. There are hundreds, there are thousands of people there with children with hardly any food, hardly any water.

MR. THOMPSON: There aren't enough lorries to take them from the border. An air lift is now being arranged by the European community, but time is running out. Dehydration and hunger are taking their toll.

TOM BROWNE: [Aug. 27] People are still crossing into Jordan at the rate of more than 1,000 an hour and the back of the cue is still over the horizon. Only the gathering pace of the international relief operation can now ease these people's misery. Alone Jordan cannot cope. Actual starvation has been averted, just, but squalor is something the mostly destitute refugees have to live with. The coaches, buses, and cars pile up in the no man's land between the Iraqi and Jordan border posts, and there are still hundreds of thousands of foreigners in Iraq who may choose to leave. At one point, even drinking water was in short supply at Ruashid, until tanks were flown in from abroad. But all this is only one aspect of the hardship Jordan is suffering as a result of the crisis.

JEREMY THOMPSON, ITN: [Today] Cries for help greeted Jordan's Crown Prince Hassan as he toured the refugee camps on his country's border. Conditions are growing worse by the day as this human tide of evacuees continues to pour in from Iraq and Kuwait. Over 80,000 are now stranded in Jordan, an even larger number awaiting in Iraq to cross the border. Jordan's royal family have made it a personal mission to secure relief for the refugees and arrange for their eventual passage home. Today the Crown Prince appealed to the world for support.

PRINCE HASSAN: The attention of the world is rightly focused on the Iraq-Kuwaiti crisis, with particular emphasis on the fate of Western nationals held in Iraq. A human tragedy of the widest dimension has received but scant attention.

JEREMY THOMPSON, ITN: In the camp of Amman, thousands of Asians are now camped out waiting for their governments to help. The Catholic Church has provided a temporary home for Filipino workers who fled from Kuwait. Most left with no money and no possessions. None could afford the long flight home. They can only wait, existing on emergency relief supplies. So far, the United Nations has arranged 55 mercy flights back to Asia as part of what could become the biggest air lift since World War II. But they say that unless more money is forthcoming from the international community, they can only hope to repatriate a fraction of the refugees now in Jordan.

MR. MacNeil: Now we have four perspectives on the growing refugee crisis in Jordan. That country's ambassador to Washington is Hussein Hammami. Egypt's ambassador to Washington is Abdel Raouf Elreedy. Thousands of Egyptians have been trying to get home via Jordan from jobs in the Gulf. Philippe Boulle is the director of the New York office of the United Nations Disaster Relief Organization which is coordinating the U.N. response to the refugee crisis throughout the Gulf. Lionel Rosenblatt is president of Refugees International, a refugee advocacy group. He's a foreign service officer, with extensive experience coordinating refugee crises in Southeast Asia. Mr. Boulle, first to you, how bad does the U.N. think the situation is in Jordan now, numbers, conditions and so on?

PHILIPPE BOULLE, United Nations Disaster Relief: It's of course always very difficult to speak about exact numbers, but according to our present estimates more than 1/4 million people will have left for Jordan and about 100,000 would have already left Jordan for elsewhere, so we are faced with a figure right now today of about 100,000. Out of these, I would say that about 60,000 are in the region which we saw in the film and are in very severe conditions. The Jordanian government is of course doing its best to handle the situation, and as you know, we are assisting the government there by organizing repatriation flights or other matters, but therefore, there are very serious conditions developing for at least forty to sixty thousand people.

MR. MacNeil: There are reports today of fighting among the people in those camps for food and water. Is that happening?

MR. BOULLE: Well, I have not heard about this thing, but what is sure is that there is a shortage of food and there are also problems about shelter. So if conditions, it's very harsh where the camps are.

MR. MacNeil: It's up to 110 degrees in the daytime and very cold at night.

MR. BOULLE: Exactly, and therefore, there are plans already to move certain large numbers of people to other camps elsewhere, but definitely conditions are deteriorating. I should add that about 10,000 people approximately come in a day and 10,000 leave, and so we have to accelerate the movement in order to answer the problem.

MR. MacNeil: Amb. Hammami, your government appealed for help today. Describe the situation in your country as you see it, the numbers and the conditions, and can you confirm that it's been, they've been reduced to fighting for bread and water in those camps?

HUSSEIN HAMMAMI, Ambassador, Jordan: Well, the number of refugees that we have received is more than 1/4 million people, and this day the estimate is that there are about 100,000 people, 100,000 refugees still in Jordan. Now to put matters in perspective, we expect every day about ten to fifteen thousand refugees, and that in terms of the United States, it would be an equivalent of 1 million to 1 1/2 million refugees getting into this country every day, the difference being that this country's certainly much richer and self-sufficient in food, whereas Jordan is poorer and is required to import all this food from abroad.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Ambassador, what is preventing the refugees from moving on fast enough? I mean, why aren't they sort of getting out to their own countries quickly enough to prevent this backlog building up there?

AMB. HAMMAMI: Well, it's a huge logistical problem for, not for Jordan, but for the governments of those countries whose refugees are from. Now you take the Egyptians. You have a large number of Egyptians who have come over and now the Egyptian government has undertaken a good program whereby we're getting as many Egyptians into the country as are leaving the country, so we have problem there. But we have a problem with refugees from say Srilanka, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Thailand, the Philippines. Now these are third world countries and they are countries that are far away from Jordan, so that logistically for these governments to take over, to undertake moving them out is a very costly business and certainly would require support and assistance from Western governments.

MR. MacNeil: Let me ask Mr. Boulle. The U.N. has been flying many of these out. Just describe the problems, and I mean, are some governments just not helping? What is the situation?

MR. BOULLE: The problem, as the Ambassador of Jordan just put it, is one of logistics. And obviously one plane cannot contain more than three hundred to even five hundred people in the case of the aircraft we are using now. So when we talk about tens of thousands of people of course it means a lot of aircraft, which costs money. And I think we have the cooperation of the government of Jordan and the cooperation of everybody. It's difficult.

MR. MacNeil: What don't you have that you need from the United Nations?

MR. BOULLE: We need cash to be able to pay for the fuel and get the planes back to the countries they should go to, and it's a question also of being able to bring in some sort of food supplies for some time in order to get food to the people who are there. I would like to add that we are not viewing the organization, organizing relief supplies. There's an organization called the International Migration Organization which is helping quite a lot and have drawn a plan in association with the government of Jordan, and also the International Red Cross is helping. So there are a lot of joint efforts with the government of Jordan, and we hope that this will help solve the situation.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Rosenblatt, as an independent refugee expert observing this from the private sector, what's not happening that should be happening you think?

LIONEL ROSENBLATT, Refugees International: More of the same. If you had to characterize in one word, Robin, what we need it's greater air lift. The greater air lift will be effective and put into place with cash. The cash requires urgent contributions from the major Western European governments and Japan and the United States. And what we don't see is the political leadership on this issue from the international community and the relevant heads of state that we have, the political and military arenas applied to this. Even the Western hostages, the guests in Iraq, are dominating attention. This group, now 150,000, the third largest city in Jordan, is comprised of these displaced people who are moving into Jordan. They need to be the focus.

MR. MacNeil: Why is it the responsibility of the United States and the West if these are citizens of all the countries the ambassador mentioned?

MR. ROSENBLATT: For two reasons. One, I think the ambassador alluded in passing to the fact that they are having trouble in some of these governments in coming up with the cash. It's unrealistic to expect the government of Bangladesh to come up with a bill for this kind of air lift in the near-term. It pays the U.S. and the international community to pay up front for the air lift, because the cost of maintenance is then reduced as soon as these people are moved on, and you've got to get to the heart of the problem, which is cold, hard cash, through the IOM, as mentioned by the ambassador, they can then arrange the air lift.

MR. MacNeil: What is the IOM?

MR. ROSENBLATT: The IOM is the International Organization for Migration based in Geneva. They have been doing the actual bookings of the aircraft. They need cash to increase their rate of bookings.

MR. MacNeil: Amb. Elreedy, what has Egypt done to create such a smooth flow of its refugees through Jordan?

ABDEL RAOUF ELREEDY, Ambassador, Egypt: We have moved our planes, our buses, our ferries and we have also appealed to international friends, United States, European countries, our Arab friends as well, and they are all helping, but we are getting more and more Egyptians coming from Iraq and Kuwait. As you know, we have almost 1 million and a half in Iraq and Kuwait, and they are coming in large numbers.

MR. MacNeil: How many have come so far, and how many remain to come?

AMB. ELREEDY: So far I think around 160,000 Egyptians have --

MR. MacNeil: So there are nearly a million still to come?

AMB. ELREEDY: Yes. I don't know whether they will come, but we expect a large number of Egyptians coming from Iraq and Kuwait, and this is an enormous task which is costing the Egyptian government a great deal of financial resources and so on.

MR. MacNeil: I'll come back to that aspect in a moment, Mr. Ambassador. Amb. Hammami, there are press reports that maybe half a million people to a million people are still in that little triangle of Iraq near your border and Saudi Arabia's who've sort of fled there from Kuwait, waiting to come into Jordan. Do you have any idea how --

AMB. HAMMAMI: No, I don't think that figure is true. Half a million to one million in the border area?

MR. MacNeil: No, not immediately on the border, but who have fled from Kuwait and who are in Iraq North of Baghdad, wanting to cross, wanting to get out.

AMB. HAMMAMI: I don't really the number of people who want to come out, but as the Ambassador from Eypgt mentioned, we should expect that this flow of people coming into Jordan will continue for quite some time to come and you have to be ready for them in terms of medical care, in terms of feeding them, in terms of caring for their hygiene, until such a time as they are able to leave the country. So we cannot sit on our, sit without doing anything. We really have to put on an effort and Jordan, by itself, cannot do the job. We are extremely poor, incapable of handling, you know, we can hardly feed our own people at this time.

MR. MacNeil: Right. Mr. Boulle, how many people does the U.N. estimate there are in Iraq who want to come into Jordan or may come into Jordan still?

MR. BOULLE: I don't think we have any firm estimate. I think is that some people might wish to come to Jordan. They might also wish, some of them, to go to other neighboring countries, but as the ambassador just mentioned, we are expecting more to come to Jordan and the whole U.N. family is giving itself to assist the government of Jordan to receive this flow of displaced people in getting them out. We are thinking in terms of, as I said, arrivals, in terms of almost 10,000 daily.

MR. MacNeil: Ten thousand a day for how many days could it be?

MR. BOULLE: Well, this we can't know.

MR. MacNeil: I see. If it is such an emergency and people are in danger of starving or having to fight for food or water, despite everybody's efforts, why doesn't your agency go to the Secretary General and say call an emergency meeting or appeal through the General Assembly or Security Council for all member states to contribute some money?

MR. BOULLE: Well, actually the Secretary General made an appeal to all governments, and the appeal is documented in terms of financial requirements, and many governments have already answered positively to that appeal for shelter, for medicines, for food, and for transport. The biggest problem in terms of cash is transport, and this as we were just told has been organized through International Migration Organization. The U.N., itself, is doing its bit. We have now hired the largest aircraft available now which can transport 500 people in one load and we have started today in cooperation with Bangladesh, and therefore, within we will bring back about 5,000.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Rosenblatt, going to you, as an outsider again here, what's the problem here? Are governments just not coughing up enough money? Do they not see the problem as urgent? What is the problem?

MR. ROSENBLATT: I think it's not seen as urgent as other issues here. There are political and military issues that are being viewed with greater priority by heads of state. We need the personal engagement of Pres. Bush, the European heads of state, and the Secretary General. I think he's gotten us off to a good start. What I would like to see is something a bit further than Mr. Boulle just suggested, and that would be the Secretary General appointing a coordinating lead so that the various actors here have a bit more impetus from the 38th floor. That I think is necessary. They're doing a good job, but they can't do it alone. We need much more political leadership to solve this quickly. You're looking at a preview of what can come. The potential here is for 2 million more foreigners to come out from Iraq and then you have the possibility of the Iraqi refugees as well down the line, but these are displaced foreigners, 2 million more may be coming, so we'd better get this show organized and make an air lift that works. It's not beyond the reach of the international community to accomplish quickly.

MR. MacNeil: How many people, Amb. Hammami, have actually died as a result of the conditions in these camps either through disease or whatever?

AMB. HAMMAMI: Well, the information I have is less than 10, I think, four children. But we should not expect that this will be the end of it to the extent that we have a problem there, to the extent that there are not enough medical facilities, not enough food, not enough shelter, I'm afraid that we can have more deaths there.

MR. MacNeil: Is 10 a figure that sounds right to you?

MR. BOULLE: As far as we know, yes.

MR. MacNeil: As far as you know,

MR. BOULLE: But as the ambassador just said, this is -- we have to take care of this not happening or worsening in the coming days.

MR. MacNeil: Right. Amb. Elreedy, Pres. Bush as we heard in the news is asking the Congress to forgive Egypt $7 billion in military debts. Is part of that for the resettlement of displaced refugees in Egypt, and can you give us some idea of what those costs are?

AMB. ELREEDY: WEll, as you know, as I said, we have 1 million and a half in Iraq and Kuwait, and many of these are coming by hundreds of thousands and to have job creation for these people, that would require a lot of money. At the same time, the military debt has been an overhang on us, a very heavy burden. At the same time, we have losses from our major sources of income like the remittances from these workers and these workers were supporting Egyptian economy and supporting their own families, so when you have 1 million or 1 million and a half, each of them is supporting a family of five or six at least. So what was a blessing for us is becoming now a liability and this is of course a part of the losses, of the heavy losses that Egypt is incurring as a result of this crisis. What we are incurring in losses and sacrifices is very enormous and it is very unique to Egypt.

MR. MacNeil: Do you regard this in Egypt as a kind of present, political present for your loyalty to the Western cause in this crisis, or as payment for losses you are incurring?

AMB. ELREEDY: The position we have taken in this crisis is a position of principle, because as you know, we would not accept an invasion from a country, another country, and we have responded in the Arab region. Egypt has led an Arab consensus to have a response to this problem, a response that is based on principles, a response that is in consonance with the United Nations Security Council, and this isour position. But at the same time we are suffering a great deal, so lift this debt overhang which was a very heavy burden on us, it is something that is very much needed and we are very appreciative of the decision of Pres. Bush.

MR. MacNeil: Amb. Hammami, does Jordan feel discriminated against in this case because you have made the case that this crisis is going to cost Jordan a great deal, the refugee problem is one thing, but also other areas?

AMB. HAMMAMI: Yes, we do have, of course, a big problem in Jordan, economic problem, as a result of this crisis. I would say in short that we expect that what has happened in the Middle East in the past month will cost us something to the tune of $2 billion a year, and that is 50 percent of our gross domestic products.

MR. MacNeil: Well, Marlin Fitzwater, the White House spokesman, said today that the U.S. is trying to work out some kind of compensation for Jordan. Do you feel that the U.S. is holding out and making stricter observance of the U.N. embargo a price for that kind of, a political price for that kind of assistance?

AMB. HAMMAMI: We have said that we will abide by the sanctions imposed by the Security Council, this resolution, we abide by it as we abide by all resolutions, but at the same time we are in touch with the United Nations on the issue of how this abiding by this resolution will affect our economy. And under Article 50, a country that is in distress as a result of the application of this resolution can go and explain its problem to the Security Council, and we have done so, and we hope that the member nations of the Security Council, as well as, of course, the United States as a member nation is one of the five permanent members, will look into our problem and appreciate the difficulties that we are facing as a result of the application of the Security Council's Resolution 661.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Fitzwater, it seemed, went out of his day today to say that Jordan was observing the embargo in spite of some truckloads of things coming up from Aqaba, but do you feel that you deserve in Jordan the kind of treatment that Egypt got today proportionately, but are not getting it?

AMB. HAMMAMI: Well, we say in Arabic, "Mabruck for Egypt"; that is a totally different matter.

MR. MacNeil: What does "mabruck" mean?

AMB. HAMMAMI: Congratulations. That is a different matter. Our relations with the United States, with the West in general are long-term relations and we know, we're hopeful that the United States and the West will consider it important to assist in overcoming by Jordan of this present crisis, economic crisis, and also to support Jordan, although we may not see eye to eye 100 percent on how to resolve the crisis in the Gulf.

MR. MacNeil: Well, Amb. Hammami, Amb. Elreedy, Mr. Rosenblatt, and Mr. Boulle, thank you, the four of you, for joining us. CONVERSATION

MR. LEHRER: Finally tonight another in our special series of one on one conversations about the crisis in the Middle East. Tonight it's with Jeane Kirkpatrick, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a professor at Georgetown University. Ms. Kirkpatrick served as the ambassador to the United Nations in the first Reagan term. She was also a member of the cabinet and the National Security Council. She now writes a syndicated column for the Los Angeles Times. Madame Ambassador, welcome. First on today's events and what we were just listening to, do you agree that Egypt's $7 billion debt should be forgiven?

JEANE KIRKPATRICK, Former UN Ambassador: I think it's a reasonable step I think.

MR. LEHRER: What about Jordan?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Well, I think this would be an odd moment to forgive Jordan, to make special financial gifts to Jordan, because that is a gift. It's a substantial gift, and I don't think, really I don't think Jordan's whole role in the crisis has been of such nature as to encourage a major gift.

MR. LEHRER: They just don't deserve it at this point.

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: At this point, no.

MR. LEHRER: Do you think it should be used as a reward for positions stated and given?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Well, look, I think that aid generally -- and that's what this is, it's a form of economic aid really -- it's reasonable to use it to support our policies in the world. And hopefully our policies are to support world order and peace and opposition to aggression, and I think it would be unreasonable not to, as a matter of fact, to use it that way.

MR. LEHRER: So it's a perfectly normal thing --

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Perfectly normal thing.

MR. LEHRER: -- to give it to Egypt and not to Jordan?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: I think so.

MR. LEHRER: Does the United States have a special obligation to Jordan and others in that part of the world solve this refugee problem that we just heard discussed?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: No, I don't think we have a special obligation. I think we share a humanitarian obligation with all countries that are able to help them on these problems. I think it's a humanitarian obligation and I don't think there's anything unique about the American responsibility in this regard. I think all of Europe and Asia, countries that are able to help ought to help.

MR. LEHRER: It's just a cost of this particular crisis, and everybody should join in?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Saddam Hussein has a special responsibility with regard to this refugee crisis and he's really the only one whom one can say has a special responsibility. He caused that just like he caused the military crisis that's occurred.

MR. LEHRER: In overall terms, the crisis, how would you judge the situation on this particular evening, where are we?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Just about where we were at the beginning with regard to Saddam Hussein and his position. He seized Kuwait, occupied it and declared it annexed and he has insisted that is still his position. Kuwait is meanwhile being plundered day by day and he has, of course, seized all the Western hostages, other foreign hostages perhaps as well, and is treating them in a really beastly fashion. I think the administration has done a first class job in organizing and encouraging international help and broad base participation in this effort, and the United States did organize it and the Bush administration did take the leadership in it. Where are we now? I don't think it's a stalemate. I think we're in a situation where we have to simply keep turning the screws and keep the squeeze on. We learned that Saddam Hussein is a brutal man who is quite prepared to exploit hostages and feelings, human feelings about the hostages, but then of course, anybody who ever bothered to look at Saddam Hussein already knew he was a very brutal man who's been squeezing his own people for a lot of years now.

MR. LEHRER: Do you think that the squeezing tactic, strategy, it's both, will work in the final analysis? Do you think it's possible to convince Saddam Hussein just by squeezing him to vacate Kuwait, reinstall the old government and go about his way?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: I think Saddam Hussein is a very violent man if we'd just look at his record. We know that he's a very violent man who's used force a lot repeatedly, threatened force. I mean, he's been willing to squeeze his own population horribly as in the Iran-Iraq War. He imposed terrible hardships on them. I think that he's not very likely to change his position because of humanitarian concerns about his own people, however, I think he's a brutal power player who may change his position on the basis of his analysis of his power situation, and if he thought that he had to retreat or lose entirely, lose his own power and perhaps lose his life, then I think he would retreat. And I think that, by the way, the President's upcoming conversations with the Soviets can be very important in Saddam Hussein's judgment about his own power position.

MR. LEHRER: He realizes that there's just no other place to turn?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: That's it, exactly.

MR. LEHRER: He truly is locked in.

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Exactly.

MR. LEHRER: What do you say to William Sapphire of the New York Times and others who have suggested that that's just not good enough, you squeeze him and he leaves, but he leaves with -- in fact, Sec. Baker was asked this very question by Congressman Solarz in this hearing today -- he leaves with still the ability to conduct nuclear war, chemical war, biological war, so what has the exercise accomplished?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Quite frankly, I think our government has stated our goals, and they are of the withdrawal from Kuwait and the restoration of the Kuwaiti government. I would add to that depriving Saddam Hussein of his personal control over the instruments of mass destruction that he has in chemical weapons and biological weapons and potentially nuclear weapons. I don't really think that the world ought to leave him in control of those weapons.

MR. LEHRER: Then we should destroy them militarily?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: I don't know that that's the only alternative. I think that there may be some other alternatives, including some kind of international control or dismantling.

MR. LEHRER: And you think that's possible to make that kind of deal with Saddam Hussein?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: I don't think it's possible to make any kind of deal with Saddam Hussein except insofar as one presents him with an alternative that's still less attractive, except insofar as you can squeeze concessions out of him, I just don't think he's going to give anything at all.

MR. LEHRER: Sec. Baker told that House Committee today, and you saw the testimony, his statement along with the rest of us, that the line was drawn not only in the sand, but the line was also drawn in time and this is a defining moment in post cold war history, is that right?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Well, certainly this is the first crisis of the post cold war period. And it's -- and it's a precedent setting crisis therefore, and the machinery which the international alliances and organizations which were wholly relevant to the cold war are obviously not directly relevant to this, and so it developed in a kind of a vacuum, and I wholly agree with Sec. of State Baker, if I understood him correctly, that we need to move now toward the development of regional collective security arrangements. I would say that it was important for the United States to take the leadership it did here because there were no regional collective security arrangements. I think we should in conjunction with other countries work to develop permanent, if you will, regional security arrangements for the Gulf area, but also for other areas in the world.

MR. LEHRER: As a practical matter, if the United States had not moved on this, would anybody else have?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: My judgment is that nothing would have happened.

MR. LEHRER: So what would have been the end result of nobody having moved?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: There would have been quite a bit of tsk tsk.

MR. LEHRER: But nothing would have happened?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Nothing would have happened, except that Saddam Hussein would not only have consolidated control over Kuwait and that oil, but his power in the Middle East and in the world would have increased substantially. You know, he had deliberately humiliated Pres. Mubarak, I believe, by misinforming him. As a matter of fact, he deliberately humiliated all of his Arab colleagues whom he deliberately misinformed about his intentions in Kuwait. He was explicitly threatening to the Saudis and in a position of increased power and with his enhanced military might and economic might, I think he would have been in a position to Finlandize the Middle East as it were. Jordan he already has a kind of a hammer lock on because of its economic dependence on Iraq.

MR. LEHRER: So then in your opinion at least, that the President was clearly justified in sending in 100,000 U.S. troops and making this major military commitment, because our interests really were at stake in a major way?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: I think our interests were at stake, let me say, and I think the President was justified. I think it was moral and legal and reasonable. I don't think it was the only course and in the beginning I must say that I felt that I was surprised the President moved for such speed and size of forces, and I thought perhaps it might have been more prudent for the President to organize international support more highly before the United States made such a commitment. Now what he did was organize, he made the commitment and then organized the international support, and he made it work, and I think he made it work brilliantly as a matter of fact, and proved by doing it that the order wasn't mistaken, and so I would say I'm sure he was right about that.

MR. LEHRER: Has he got the argument on his side if and when shooting does start and American service people start to die? Does he have the message there to explain why they died?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: You know certainly I think that the -- and I don't think the message is simply the price of gasoline as some of Sec. Baker's interrogators were trying to suggest, I think very clearly there is also at stake here not only the power of a brutal dictator like Saddam Hussein, but also whether or not there will be any modicum of order, world order, international order against aggression of the kind that Saddam Hussein committed. I think he's got the U.N. Charter. He's also got normal rules of comity among nations. The kind of aggression that Iraq committed against Kuwait has throughout history been a cause of war, in fact, and a justification not only for self-defense, but the collective self- defense, and so certainly I think the President has moral and political justification, though obviously I hope that it's not going to be necessary for any American soldiers to lose their lives. They're pretty miserable out in that desert with those poison snakes anyway.

MR. LEHRER: What do you think is going to happen?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Well, I don't know.

MR. LEHRER: Sure. Nobody does.

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: I don't think I know, but I think that, I think that the administration will simply keep cool and hang tough and our initial partners will as well and that they will maintain the blockade, and I believe that the President will in his conversations with Mikhail Gorbachev win a higher level of Soviet active participation in this effort which will be a very positive thing. I think that will further tip the balance against Saddam Hussein, and I believe eventually Saddam Hussein is going to give. I believe he's going to give. If we're strong enough, he'll give.

MR. LEHRER: Without a shot being fired?

AMB. KIRKPATRICK: Without a shot being fired.

MR. LEHRER: Amb. Kirkpatrick, thank you very much. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. MacNeil: In other news today, scientists say they have discovered the gene that may cause the most common form of arthritis called osteoarthritis. Some 16 million Americans suffer from that disease. Scientists from Philadelphia and Cleveland discovered the genetic flaw after studying 19 members of a family spanning three generations. One of the chief researchers talked about the finding at a Washington news conference.

DR. DARWIN PROCKOP, Researcher: The discovery gives us hope for two reasons. It gives us a way in the first family we've studied of making a diagnosis about this disease, determining who's going to get the disease and who is not. The second way in which this gives us hope is this discovery gives us a plan, a plan for future research. We can ignore a lot of the myths that have grown up about osteoarthritis and now develop a concrete plan for future research.

MR. MacNeil: The American Bar Association gave its highest rating to Supreme Court Nominee David Souter today. The ABA's Judicial Review Panel unanimously voted Souter well qualified for the post. Senate confirmation hearings begin on September 13th. The prime ministers of North and South Korea met in Seoul today. It was the highest level of official contact since Korea was divided in 1945. The talks are being held to ease tension along the two countries' heavily fortified border. In South Africa, President F.W. DeKlerk visited the black township of Soweto to call for an end to factional fighting. It was his first visit to the township since taking office a year ago. His appeal for peace came as fighting in nearby townships killed more than 40 people. Eleven of them were shot dead by police who opened fire on a crowd of 5,000 protesters. RECAP

MR. LEHRER: And again recapping today's developments on the Middle East, President Bush asked Congress to suspend Egypt's $7 billion debt to the United States. White House Spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said the plan represents appreciation for Egypt's help against Iraq. The U.S. Navy seized its first Iraqi cargo ship. More Western hostages, including 25 Americans, arrived in Jordan on flights from Baghdad, and Sec. of State Baker said the crisis will test America's leadership in the post cold war era. He raised the possibility that U.S. forces could stay in the area as part of what he called a new regional security structure. Good night, Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Good night, Jim. That's the Newshour tonight. We'll be back tomorrow night with continuing coverage of the situation in the Middle East and other news. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.