The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight, full coverage of the opening of the U.S.-led war in Iraq: We'll have the day's major developments, with military analysis; the scene in Baghdad from New York Times correspondent Dexter Filkins; a report on the possible use of chemical weapons on the battlefield; and some overview thoughts from Zbigniew Brezinski and Walter Russell Mead.

WAR NEWS ROUND UP

JIM LEHRER: The United States went to war against Iraq today, on the ground and through the air. The military campaign began in earnest after an opening strike at the Iraqi leadership. Ray Suarez has our war news roundup.

RAY SUAREZ: The U.S. struck the first blow before dawn, Iraqi time, targeting Saddam Hussein and his top advisers in Baghdad. Hours later, American ground forces began moving, and new air raids rocked the Iraqi capital. The second barrage of bombs touched off explosions across Baghdad after nightfall. On night vision cameras, fires could be seen burning in at least three locations in Baghdad, some were government buildings. And U.S. Marines and British forces crossed the Iraqi border from Kuwait and took control of the town of the seaport town of Umm Qasr. There were reports that Iraqi soldiers had surrendered there. Also on the border, the army's third infantry division's artillery opened fire on Iraqi troops using Paladin self- propelled Howitzers and multiple-launch rocket systems. The action came about 18 hours after the first U.S. strike on Baghdad at 5:34 local time this morning. In the first attack, radar- evading F-117A Stealth aircraft dropped 2,000-pound bunker buster bombs. And the U.S. launched 40 Tomahawk Cruise missiles from ships in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. Iraq responded with anti- aircraft fire. ( Anti-aircraft fire ) shortly after the raid began, Pres. Bush addressed the nation from the Oval Office.

PRES. GEORGE W. BUSH: Now that conflict has come, the only way to limits its duration is to apply decisive force. And I assure you, this will not be a campaign of half measures, and we will accept no outcome but victory.

RAY SUAREZ: At the Pentagon this morning, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Gen. Richard Myers, said the attacks were aimed at Saddam Hussein.

GEN. RICHARD MYERS: Regime leadership command and control is a legitimate target in any conflict, and that was the target that was struck last night.

RAY SUAREZ: In a taped appearance on Iraqi TV, a defiant Saddam Hussein called on his people to "draw your sword" against the enemy.

PRES. SADDAM HUSSEIN (Translated): Today, I pledge to you, in the name of the Iraqi leadership and the Iraqi people that Iraq will carry out jihad with the heroic army in the Iraq of civilization, history and belief. We will fight the invaders and drive them, God willing, to lose their patience and lose their way and that they lose any hope of attaining what they have planned and which criminal Zionists have pushed them towards.

RAY SUAREZ: In retaliation, Iraq launched at least three missiles into Kuwait. All were intercepted by U.S. Patriot missiles or struck desert sand. Throughout Kuwait, air raid sirens sounded today, emptying the streets of traffic and sending citizens ducking for cover. At Kuwait International Airport, hundreds of frightened travelers were herded into a bomb shelter. On the Kuwait-Iraq border, concerns over a possible chemical or biological attack led several military units to don gas masks and chemical weapons suits. But officials said no such agents were detected. At the Pentagon, Defense Sec. Donald Rumsfeld was asked about reports that oil wells were ablaze in southern Iraq.

DONALD RUMSFELD: I have seen indication and reports from people that there may be... that the Iraqi regime may have set fire to as many as three or four of the oil wells in the South. And we're in the process of attempting to get additional information on that. Needless to say, it is a crime for that regime to be destroying the riches of the Iraqi people.

RAY SUAREZ: At the White House this afternoon, Pres. Bush met with his cabinet. He said they reviewed the war strategy, and he stressed a point top administration officials had been repeating all day: That the U.S. was not fighting alone.

PRES. GEORGE W. BUSH: We heard from Sec. Powell, who briefed us on the ever-growing coalition of the willing, nations who support our deep desire for peace and freedom. Over 40 nations now support our efforts. We are grateful for their determination, we appreciate their vision, and we welcome their support.

RAY SUAREZ: Iraqi Radio said Cruise missiles hit one of Saddam Hussein's homes in Baghdad this evening. The report said no one was hurt. And the Reuters news service reported missiles also blasted Saddam's main palace in the capital. Iraqi reports said in all at least five people were killed in the day's action and at least a dozen wounded. The Iraqis also claimed they shot down a U.S. helicopter. The U.S. Military did not confirm that, but a number of reports said a Special Forces helicopter crashed inside Iraq. The troops were rescued. In northern Iraq, Kurdish groups gathered their fighters and prepared for battle. They said Iraqi troops had dug in around the city of Kirkuk, but they said the defenders appeared ready to retreat at a moment's notice. The Turkish parliament agreed today to let U.S. warplanes use Turkey's airspace to strike neighboring Iraq. The decision also allows the U.S. to fly combat troops across Turkey. The planes will not have the right to use Turkish air bases or refuel there. The parliament had refused to let U.S. troops deploy in Turkey for a ground invasion of Iraq. Jim?

JIM LEHRER: Thank you, Ray.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: In the other news of this day, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a resolution in support of the U.S. military. The House was considering a similar resolution. Some Democrats had criticized the president's diplomatic efforts, but today, Republicans and democrats alike made statements of support for the troops. In London British Prime Minister Blair formerly announced that British forces had joined the combat. Blair has faced strong opposition to his policy. He took note of that in a televised address.

TONY BLAIR: I know this course of action has produced deep divisions of opinion in our country, but I know also the British people will now be united in sending our armed forces, our thoughts and prayers. They are the finest in the world, and their families and all of Britain can have great pride in them.

JIM LEHRER: Along with Britain the U.S. Did claim the support of more than 40 nations, but the start of the war also sparked new protests here and abroad. Betty Ann Bowser has that story.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Within hours of the air strikes, anti-war demonstrations sprung up in more than ten major cities around the world. In Indonesia, which has the largest Muslim population in the world, thousands of people took to the streets of Jakarta. Indonesian Pres. Megawati called on the United Nations to stop the war. In Cairo, anti-war activists threw stones and metal barricades at riot police, who retaliated with their batons.

MAN ON STREET: The American occupation of Iraq is occupation of the entire Arab world. Saudi Arabia has hosted U.S. troops in Qatar and Jordan and Bahrain and Kuwait, these are enemies of the Arab people.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: In Moscow, hundreds of anti-war protestors came to the American embassy, while in another part of the city, Pres. Vladimir Putin condemned the attacks.

PRES. VLADIMIRE PUTIN ( Translated ): The military actions are being carried out contrary to world public opinion, contrary to the principles and norms of international law and the U.N. Charter.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: In Melbourne, the families of the 2,000 sent to the Persian Gulf gathered to pray for their safety -- while thousands of demonstrators expressed opposition to the war. In Seoul, an estimated 4,000 demonstrators demanded South Korea withdraw its support of the war action. Many also clashed with police. At the U.N. Sec. Gen. Kofi Annan again expressed concern for Iraqi civilians.

KOFI ANNAN: I hope that all parties will scrupulously observe the requirements of international humanitarian law, and will do everything in their power to shield the civilian population from the grim consequences of war.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: There were protests in at least five American cities, including San Francisco, where dozens were arrested and in Washington, where protestors closed a major bridge into the city.

JIM LEHRER: Iraq complained to the U.N. today, saying the war was an act of aggression and a violation of international law. Some 1,000 U.S. troops, with attack helicopters, launched a major operation in southern Afghanistan today. They searched a mountainous region east of Kandahar for remnants of al- Qaida and the Taliban. The U.S. military said there were intelligence reports of new enemy activity. A spokesman said it was a coincidence the operation began just before the first air strikes in Iraq. A military hearing officer recommended today against court-martialing two U.S. pilots who mistakenly bombed Canadian troops in Afghanistan. The attack last April killed four Canadians. The pilots, from the Illinois National Guard, said they thought they were under fire. The commander of the eighth air force will make the final decision on whether they go to trial. The FBI issued a worldwide alert for a terror suspect from Saudi Arabia today. They asked law enforcement and the public to help find the man who goes by at least half a dozen names. The alert said he is linked with al-Qaida, and may be plotting unspecified attacks against the United States. National Guard troops in Arizona patrolled the nation's largest nuclear plant today. They were deployed in the desert west of Phoenix, amid concerns terrorists might attack the site. In Washington, Energy Secretary Abraham confirmed there were intelligence reports about that possibility. And in New York City, police stood guard on Wall Street today, and patrolled with bomb- sniffing dogs and radiation detectors. Tornadoes killed at least six people early today in Georgia. More than 100 others were injured. The storms ripped through Worth and Mitchell Counties in the southwestern part of the state. At least 60 homes were destroyed and 75 damaged. A series of tornadoes struck in the same area three years ago, killing 20 people. A key gauge of U.S. economic activity fell in February for the first time in five months. The Conference Board, a business research group, said today its Index of Leading Economic Indicators was down 0.4 percent. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 21 points to close above 8286. The NASDAQ rose more than five points to close above 1402.

JIM LEHRER: Now we return to the war against Iraq with Rumsfeld excerpts, analysis of the military effort thus far, the chemical warfare angle, and Zbigniew Brezinski and Walter Russell Mead.

FOCUS - TARGET: SADDAM

JIM LEHRER: It began with going after a special target, and continued in the air and on the ground. The opening of the war in southern Iraq; Terence Smith talked with New York Times correspondent Dexter Filkins a few minutes ago. He's on the Kuwait-Iraqi border.

TERENCE SMITH: Dexter Filkins, welcome. We're pleased to have you on the broadcast.

DEXTER FILKINS: Thanks very much.

TERENCE SMITH: Tell us what you've been able to see and hear and observe along the border between Kuwait and Iraq.

DEXTER FILKINS: Well, I'm just... I'm just a couple miles from the Iraqi border, and four hours... four- and-a-half hours today, I just... tonight, I witnessed the most extraordinary bombardment -- mostly artillery, but a lot of planes, but just felt like a thunderstorm and an earthquake combined-- just shell after shell after shell. And then troops going across the border-- tanks, troop carriers rolling across. Where I am, it looked like most of the forces were heading due north to Basra, which is Iraq's second largest city, where all the oil facilities are. There's a lot of oil fields there, and... but just troops rolling through under cover of this really amazing bombardment.

TERENCE SMITH: And this bombardment, of course, was coalition artillery firing into Iraq ahead of the troops?

DEXTER FILKINS: Yes, yes. It was American and British troops, and the guns were here, pointed in, and firing away. And I have to say, I don't think... I didn't hear a single shot come back. And you know, the closer you get to war, the more horrifying it is. And I have to say, I pity anybody who was on the receiving end of what I saw today.

TERENCE SMITH: Do you have any evidence, in fact, that there were Iraqi units there in that area?

DEXTER FILKINS: Well, it's... that's an interesting question. I was just up on the border, and can see the Iraqi watchtowers and... right just across from the Kuwaiti watchtowers. And, you know, in some cases they're only a few hundred yards apart. And I looked and looked at the Iraqi watchtowers, and didn't see... didn't see a bit of movement. And I think they were empty. And the word here is that there really isn't anything Iraqi at all for, you know, ten or fifteen miles inland. So these shells were going pretty far.

TERENCE SMITH: There was a lot of discussion today whether this is the actual full-scale movement, or whether it's something more preliminary than that. What you're describing sounds pretty big.

DEXTER FILKINS: Well, you know, I was in the... I was in Afghanistan for the war there, and I have to say that the scale of this just dwarfs what I saw in Afghanistan. This doesn't look preliminary in any way to me. This looks like the main event-- big in every sense.

TERENCE SMITH: We've had reports of missiles being fired from Iraq into Kuwait, across the border. Do you have any information on that? I gather most did not strike any meaningful targets.

DEXTER FILKINS: They didn't. I think a couple were hit... intercepted by American Patriot missiles before they could land, but I talked to... I didn't see the missiles, the Iraqi missiles coming in, but a friend of mine did, and said that he was by a Kuwaiti checkpoint today when one of the missiles landed. It shook the buildings, it shook the windows, but nobody was hurt. I mean, I have to say that if that's all... if that's all there is, just three or four of those, I mean, what we saw come out of Iraq today was just a tiny, tiny fraction of what the Americans and the British delivered going in to Iraq today.

TERENCE SMITH: Were there both American and British units involved?

DEXTER FILKINS: Yes, yes. My understanding... I had a chat with a British officer a couple of days ago. The bulk of the British force is going to head for Basra. And that's an important city because it's the second largest city, and what the coalition, what the Americans and the British are hoping for is a quick victory there. It will be... you know, it will certainly boost spirits here. It will probably take some political pressure off the British if it succeeds. And it will demoralize, you know... ideally, it would demoralize the Iraqi units closer to Baghdad if it fell quickly. But yes, there's a lot of British forces here-- and American forces-- and together they appear to be rolling due north for Basra.

TERENCE SMITH: And is this movement continuing? Are there troops still going north?

DEXTER FILKINS: Well, it's late here. It's about 1:00 A.M., and it's very dark, but just about an hour ago, you know... all sorts of rumbling. And there was -- a big convoy crossed in front of where I'm staying and left off very dark and just rolling towards the border. So, yeah, I mean, just until very recently, these things were still making their way towards the border.

TERENCE SMITH: Right. And finally, have you been able to speak to any of these troops? Have you any way of gauging their morale now that they are finally on the move?

DEXTER FILKINS: Well, I have. I didn't speak to any... I did speak to a couple today and yesterday. And you know, I think there was a certain edginess on their part, and anxiety. And the troops I spoke to, you know, they had just stopped and were waiting for the word. And so there was kind of a... you know, there was an edginess in their voice and a bounce in their step, and they were ready to go. And now I think, you know, that's why they're here, and I think they're on their way.

TERENCE SMITH: Dexter Filkins, thank you very much, and keep your head down, will you?

DEXTER FILKINS: Thanks very much.

JIM LEHRER: Now the opening of the war as described by Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld at a morning briefing at the Pentagon.

DONALD RUMSFELD: Coalition forces hit a senior Iraqi leadership compound last evening. The damage assessment on the compound is pending. That was the first, it will likely not be the last. The days of the Saddam Hussein regime are numbered. We continue to feel that there's no need for a broader conflict if the Iraqi leaders act to save themselves and to prevent such further conflict. What will follow will not be a repeat of any other conflict. It will be of a force and scope and scale that has been beyond what has been seen before. The Iraqi soldiers and officers must ask themselves whether they want to die fighting for a doomed regime or do they want to survive, help the Iraqi people in the liberation of their country, and play a role in a new, free Iraq. Do not follow orders to destroy dams or flood villages. Do not follow orders to destroy your country's oil, which is the Iraqi people's, and they will need it to rebuild their country when that regime is gone. Following such orders would be to commit crimes against the Iraqi people. See those orders for what they are, the last desperate gasp of a dying regime.

REPORTER: Mr. Secretary, do you have reason to believe that Saddam Hussein was at the compound that was struck last night, or his sons, for that matter?

DONALD RUMSFELD: We had what I would characterize as very good intelligence that it was a senior Iraqi leadership compound. We do not know what the battle damage assessment will be when that type of information is available to us.

REPORTER: Mr. Secretary, do you believe in fact that the man on the tape that was run on Iraqi TV last night was, in fact, Saddam Hussein?

DONALD RUMSFELD: There is debate about that. I have no inside information.

REPORTER: Have you seen any indication that his son, Uday, has taken control of the country?

DONALD RUMSFELD: No. Let me make a comment. I did not answer a question as fully as I might have about, do we have evidence that it's working? We are in communication with still more people who are officials of the military at various levels. The regular army, the special republican... the republican guard, the special republican guard who are increasingly aware that it's going to happen, he's going to be gone -- and what they are probably doing-- I can't do this perfectly, but as I try to put myself in their shoes -- they have to be fearful of that regime because that regime kills people every day to enforce obedience and discipline. So they have to be fearful of the regime. On the other hand, once they are persuaded that that regime is history, it is going, it will not be there, in some reasonably finite period of time they will be gone, then their behavior begins to tip and change. And the... when I said we have good evidence, we have not only good evidence, but we have broad and deep evidence that suggests that there are people going through that decision-making process throughout that country today, and that is a good thing.

JIM LEHRER: And to Margaret Warner.

MARGARET WARNER: For more on the opening salvo of Operation Iraqi Freedom and last night's strike at the Iraqi leadership, we turn to retired colonel john warden, former air force deputy director for strategy, doctrine, and war fighting during the 1991 Gulf War. Retired army Col. W. Patrick Lang was a former Special Forces officer and defense attach in the Middle East, and chief Middle East analyst for the defense intelligence agency during the '91 conflict; retired Air Force Col. Sam Gardiner, who teaches military operations and planning and is a longtime consultant to the Defense Department; and Adeed Dawisha, born in Iraq, now an American citizen, a professor of political science at Miami University of Ohio. He's written widely on the politics of the Middle East. Welcome, gentlemen. This last 24 hours is nothing like what we were led to believe, the shock and awe bombing campaign we were led to believe we'd see. Put it together for us, Col. Warden, what are we seeing here? What's the strategy?

COL. JOHN WARDEN: There are two general ways to go to war. You can do things serially sort of one thing at a time or you can do everything in a very compressed very parallel fashion which simply puts your enemy in an impossible position. We clearly have started this serially. That's normally dangerous. However, in this case it looks like that there has been an estimate that these relatively small things may generate or may precipitate a general collapse, which then may allow the success without there having to be the large-scale attacks that would really be the lower-risk operations to conduct.

MARGARET WARNER: What would you add to that?

COL. W. PATRICK LANG: Well, the conclusion that seems to have been reached here that makes what Col. Warden says make a lot of sense is the fact that we obviously have information from inside the Iraqi military structure which indicates that the whole thing is starting to crumble, come apart at the seams. In that case, if you keep pushing on this wall that's rotten at the feet it will very slowly, slowly start to tip. Maybe it will go down all at once with the kind of results that Mr. Rumsfeld is hoping for. If they have that evidence this is not a bad way to do it.

MARGARET WARNER: But how long do you pursue this strategy before you unleash, we also heard Sec. Rumsfeld saying this is going to be of a force and nature that has never been seen. He's obviously trying to send a message to the Iraqi leadership.

COL. SAMUEL GARDINER: I think that's a threat.

MARGARET WARNER: Yeah.

COL. SAMUEL GARDINER: I agree with them. I think what we saw today may be the beginning of the end. That I think that that attack last night was unexpected. We did, you know, it was an opportunity. The results of it look like it's pretty good. We may have gotten him. We may have gotten some of the leadership. There are indications that it is falling apart. The ground operation has been accelerated. We own the port. We're going to have Basra probably by the morning. Things are going much quicker than I think anybody had expected.

MARGARET WARNER: Prof. Dawisha, let's talk about the opening attack which was the one last night on the place that at least intelligence sources are telling reporters it was believed Saddam Hussein and maybe even his sons were sleeping or staying. First of all, what did you make of the tape we saw of Saddam Hussein speaking? We just ran it again. Did it look like him to you?

ADEED DAWISHA: It did actually look very much like him to me. More importantly I think it sounded like him to me. He speaks with a very definite accent that is very much a Tikriti accent. He has an intonation in his voice that is veryvisible. I must admit I thought it was him. But maybe, who knows? If he has all these doubles, they probably can imitate his speech as well as his face. I thought it was Saddam Hussein.

MARGARET WARNER: And what... so if he survived even if he survived, what do you think the impact of a strike like that apparently the structure was all but demolished, would have on him, his inner circle, his sons, the whole leadership structure?

ADEED DAWISHA: Oh, I think the impact would be enormous. Consider the fact that he now thinks we have enough human intelligence in Iraq that we are able to pinpoint houses or bunkers or places where he or his sons or the top leadership may be staying at. The fact that we actually were able to pinpoint one of those and destroy them, you can imagine how he might feel tonight as he's sleeping somewhere elsewhere - where he does not know whether we have intelligence that he's sleeping over there. The whole point about this is to create a sense of confusion, a sense of fear that would in a sense impair their judgment. I think doing something like that will certainly expedite this kind of eventuality.

COL. W. PATRICK LANG: Prof. Dawisha is certainly more qualified to judge his accent than I am, but there was a certain clown- like aspect to the performance there last night which I found to be reflective of the fact that he was in a good deal of shock based on his performance there.

MARGARET WARNER: He certainly wasn't the sort of cocky, defiant Saddam Hussein we saw earlier in the week.

COL. W. PATRICK LANG: That's right. There are many examples in military history which I'm sure my colleagues could cite as well of commanders who have experienced near death at the beginning of an engagement and were so unhinged that they couldn't perform at all from then on.

MARGARET WARNER: Now tell us - you've spent a lot of time in Baghdad during the Iran-Iraq war. Saddam Hussein was in power then. He takes extraordinary steps to maintain his personal security, doesn't he?

COL. W. PATRICK LANG: Yes. He certainly does. You know, he has in mind to imitate such wonderful people as Josef Stalin and thought of himself particularly that way during the Iran-Iraq war. I spent the afternoon this afternoon on an international broadcast debating of a couple of Iraqi officials. They actually brought this up as a couple times that you'll never get him, he's our leader, he's the symbol of our nation. He's so well protected. There are all these circles of security around him.

MARGARET WARNER: Does he have doubles?

COL. W. PATRICK LANG: Oh, he has a number of doubles. I think that's been pretty well established. He's very careful. He has a number of identical vehicles -- all of which are fitted out with the same kind of radios and the same signature. It's difficult to pinpoint somebody like this but if we got lucky and I understand the analysis which led this attack came from my old outfit - the Defense Intelligence Agency - you know, if we got lucky and really hurt him like this, it will affect the outcome of the war.

MARGARET WARNER: Professor, back to you, of course we also heard Sec. Rumsfeld calling on the senior Iraqi leadership and the senior military leader to essentially abandon him. How likely do you think that is?

ADEED DAWISHA: Oh, I think it's very likely. I go back to what has been said before. This whole notion by these Baathists that Saddam is loved and protected is absolute nonsense. Saddam is absolutely detested by everybody in Iraq except for maybe no more than eight or nine thousand men in his special Republican Guard who in a sense were participating or participants in the kind of atrocities that he has inflicted on the Iraqi people and therefore realize that their fate is intimately connected to his. So they'll fight the Americans because if they don't die at the hand of the Americans, they'll die at the hand of the Iraqi people. Everybody else in Iraq detests Saddam. And my point has always been that one of the major problems that the Americans will have in Baghdad is not to defeat Saddam and his cronies but to actually protect him and his family -- ironically enough from the wrath and the rage of the Iraqi people.

MARGARET WARNER: Col. Gardiner, is there any historical precedent for kind of wholesale, I guess we're talking about mutiny except it's on land. That's from all of you what you're saying, the U.S. administration is trying to encourage here. Has that ever happened?

COL. SAMUEL GARDINER: Well, Mussolini in Italy. You know, it was from the time there was a defense going on until he was hung by a light post was a very short time, so that that can happen very quickly. It's very interesting. I remember a study done on Korea asking the question, when would that come apart? The answer was we won't know because they won't know. He won't know that it's happening. I mean, things like that happen so quickly that it will be beyond his knowing.

MARGARET WARNER: Col Warden, if it doesn't happen within the inner circle and the only way to, quote, get Saddam is the sort of intelligence put together with air strikes, how likely do you think that is? I mean, just in terms of the efficacy of air strikes like that?

COL. JOHN WARDEN: Well, I think that really they're probably pretty effective. One of the things we have to keep in mind is that getting an individual, specifically, can be a very, very difficult thing. I mean right here in Washington D.C. , it took two weeks to get a couple of guys wandering around. So this is a tough problem. However, this is sort of the beauty of what you can do from the air especially when you increase the scope of this thing, that you simply make it impossible for the guy to do anything even though that he may have survived. So even if he does survive, if things don't fall apart the way I think we all are anticipating that they may fairly quickly, then we simply drive the state of paralysis and for certain it comes apart. If it doesn't there's no resistance in any of that.

COL. SAMUEL GARDINER: And the interesting thing about the development today is by limiting the strikes on Baghdad it's clear that he is the objective. In ways....

MARGARET WARNER: In other words, you mean they're hitting leadership targets, the lights are still on. The water is still working.

COL. SAMUEL GARDINER: The lights are still on, the water is still working, all the stuff we had worried about before. So it's clear to the people around him that he's the one the Americans are after.

COL. JOHN WARDEN: However,... and the however on this one is that I was a little bit surprised to see that Mr. Hussein could come up on the television. I think I would have been inclined to take that out because in today's world, television is such a powerful medium and if you're not up on the television, you may not be alive and therefore I may feel a lot better about going and doing something else.

MARGARET WARNER: Pat Lang, even there are reports on Iraqi radio, so the Iraqis are still controlling both state radio and state TV.

COL. W. PATRICK LANG: When I was on their international television program, they were complaining bitterlyabout supposed American air attacks on Iraqi television specifically designed to take this down. I was going to say that these two Iraqi officials I was talking to, they insisted that everyone was going to fight for Iraq and that the United States had no right to deprive them of their national identity and leader. And I told them, I said, you know, we've made it very, very clear that it isn't the people of Iraq we're interested in. We're interested in eliminating this evil government. We're not going to hurt Iraq in any way that we can avoid - and a number of iterations of this. Every time we would bring this up, their speeches that they gave became less and less shrill as though they were less convinced of it all the time. They were sitting there.

MARGARET WARNER: Let me bring the professor back in here. I know, Professor, you're not a military person, but how do you interpret or what do you draw from Saddam Hussein's response today? He came on TV but militarily there were some fairly ineffective, a couple of missile attacks sort of into Kuwait. There was a lot of anti-aircraft fire, of course, in Baghdad.

ADEED DAWISHA: You know, I'm convinced that Saddam and his people knew that the moment the war effort would begin their days will be numbered. You know, the thing that's really interesting to me in the response of the Iraqis was the panicky statement that Uday, his son, put on Iraqi radio literally minutes after the attack, which screamed and shouted, "God save us from the evil doers and evil doings of the aggressors. God save our great leader from the aggressors" and so on. You can even almost feel the panic in a statement like that. I think that they knew very well. That's why they spent so much time trying to come up with all kind of diplomatic maneuverings to prolong this as much as they could maybe into the summer. But they knew that the moment that the war effort began, their days will be numbered. I'm sure it will be.

MARGARET WARNER: Col. Gardiner, when we started these discussions a couple of nights ago we all talked about was Saddam's strategy basically not to resist much but to draw the fight to Baghdad and ultimately have sort of urban assault or require the U.S. forces to get into urban conflict. How does what's happened the last 48 hours or 24 hours, what does it suggest that the U.S. is trying to do to avoid that -- I mean, other than trying to prompt a total collapse?

COL. SAMUEL GARDINER: I still that that has to unfold. I mean, I don't think anybody expected the defense to take place at the Kuwaiti border. I think what we're seeing is sort of what's expected. The next line and the one that will be important is about halfway to Baghdad, which is where we suspect he has chemical weapons. And that could happen in the next couple days. If we see or we don't see those, I mean, then we will really know to what extent the defense is going to be.

COL. W. PATRICK LANG: But you can see that the whole thing hangs on a kind of massive self-delusion.

COL. SAMUEL GARDINER: Surely.

COL. W. PATRICK LANG: That they do have the capability to resist us. If that starts to crack, you know, it will go.

COL. SAMUEL GARDINER: That's why it was so important that the ground campaign went.

MARGARET WARNER: And we have to go. Thank you all four very much.

JIM LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight chemicals on the battlefield, and Mead and Brezinski.

FOCUS - CHEMICALS ON THE BATTLEFIELD

JIM LEHRER: Now, military doctors and nurses get ready to treat soldiers if they're exposed to deadly chemicals. Betty Ann Bowser reports.

SPOKESPERSON: What happened?

PERSON ROLE PLAYING: I don't know. I can't breath.

PERSON ROLE PLAYING: You can't breath?

PERSON ROLE PLAYING: No, I can't breathe!

BETTY ANN BOWSER: These military doctors and nurses are learning how to treat American soldiers in the event of a chemical or biological attack. Here at the Medical Research Institute for Chemical Defense in Aberdeen, Maryland, clinicians from all military services go through a series battlefield scenarios, each one designed to help them recognize what different chemical agents do to the human body.

PERSON ROLE PLAYING: Quickly, quickly, 30 seconds! Get some good notes now! 30 seconds!

BETTY ANN BOWSER: In the exercise, each team has just two minutes to size up the patient's injuries and decide what the treatment should be. Symptoms vary, depending on what kind of chemical is used, but for the most part, the doctors will see dramatic conditions, everything from seizures, vomiting, to respiratory failure resulting in death.

PERSON ROLE PLAYING: Yeah, you know, we came under attack, and I had to run and get my mask on. I got all my gear on, and then I fell.

PERSON ROLE PLAYING: Okay.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: In this case, a soldier pretended he was exposed to a liquid nerve agent.

PERSON ROLE PLAYING: He's had a mask on already. He had some twitting.

SPOKESPERSON: You're coughing. Are you having a hard time breathing?

PERSON ROLE PLAYING: Just a little bit. I've... my breathing's a lot better now. I have, like, a real bad runny nose, you know.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: If the team of doctors gets the diagnosis right, the patient should be given a nerve agent antidote immediately, then fully decontaminated. Later, each team's performance is reviewed by the institute doctors, who are supervised by Dr. Gary Hurst.

DR. GARY HURST: They need to kind of sketch out in their own mind, real quick, what the overall prognosis is, 'cause they're going to have to "do I give this guy a little bit of time or do I do a full-court press? If I give a full-court press, am I going to save him or am I going to waste my time so that others that I could have saved would die?"

SPOKESMAN: I decontaminated the side of his face.

SPOKESMAN: Yeah. That's good.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: A full-court press is not an easy thing to do. Doctors have to work in a contaminated site with contaminated patients, a so- called dirty environment.

SPOKESMAN: They'll only come in with just their mask on. They'll be purged with air.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Navy physician Eric Flach found the decontamination process to be one of the most complicated parts of training.

LT. ERIC FLACH, U.S. Navy Physician: Taking the patient from a dirty situation and making them clean, so the decontamination process of going from what they call a line that's actually dirty to the actual clean side of that, and that probably has the greatest potential for, for problems.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: But for most medical professionals who go through the training, the biggest challenge is the very thing designed to keep them safe in a chemical attack: The protective suits issued to all military personnel in the Persian Gulf. Dr. Mark Dalton is an internist for the army.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: How hard is it to do those things with all the protective gear on?

CAPT. MARK DALTON, U.S. Army Internist: Oh, it's extremely difficult. The outer garment on top of your regular clothes are very hot. People get dehydrated very quickly, and in addition, you're wearing these bulky gloves that make your procedures very difficult that you take forgranted every day, such as starting IV's and intubation.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Do you think you could do it now, with the training, function with all that gear on?

CAPT. MARK DALTON: I believe we could.

SPOKESPERSON: If the mask doesn't collapse...

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Col. Joann Hollandsworth, an army nurse for 22 years, found the mask and gloves created a cumbersome barrier between her and the patient.

COL. JOANN HOLLANDSWORTH, U.S. Army Nurse: The things that you rely on-- your being able to see your patient when your impaired with a mask, your hands, all your tactical senses-- you're not able to use.

DR. GARY HURST: I liken it to swimming through molasses or something, but you can function, though. The students practice putting IV's in, doing the intubation, the tube into the airway. They all do it.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: In fact, Col. Jonathan Newmark, one of the Research Institute's physician instructors, believes the most important message out of the Aberdeen training is that ability to succeed.

COL. JONATHAN NEWMARK: We want them to realize that this is not something you throw up your hands with, that chemical casualties can be treated, that if you administer proper therapy in a timely fashion, that there are things you can do for people; you will; save lives.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: But that optimism is not shared by everyone. While this training at Aberdeen may be the gold standard, the Government Accounting Office in 2001 found only 2.2 percent of medical officers had completed the full seven-day course in medical management of chemical and biological casualties, and, it summarized, "medical readiness for chemical and biological scenarios cannot be ensured." Connecticut Republican Congressman Christopher Shays requested the GAO report.

REP. CHRISTOPHER SHAYS: If you've been shot or exposed to shrapnel, been in the way of cannon fire, you're going to get the best medical attention that you could possibly hope for. That's where we excel. But if you were exposed to parasites, exposed to certain environmental chemicals, we may not discover it. Now, we have more doctors and nurses and others who are being trained in this area, but we have a ways to go.

DR. GARY HURST: This guy is in bad shape. Real bad shape.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Dr. Hurst thinks the low numbers from the GAO report may be misleading.

DR. GARY HURST: If the right people are trained, you know, it's only a small percentage of people in those field hospitals are where the action is. If those people, if enough of those people have the training, that's all you need. I'll bet you there's a cadre, at least a cadre, in every field hospital that has had this training and is proficient.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Is that enough?

DR. GARY HURST: Yes, it is.

SPOKESPERSON: I got shot!

BETTY ANN BOWSER: The proficiency of that training could be tested soon, as American soldiers move closer to war with Iraq.

FINALLY - ISSUES OF WAR

JIM LEHRER: And finally tonight, some closing, overview thoughts from Brzezinski and Mead. Zbigniew Brzezinski is a counselor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. He was the national security adviser during the Carter administration. Walter Russell Mead is a senior fellow for U.S. Foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. His recent book, "Special Providence," is an historical look at the United States and the world.

The war has begun. How would you characterize the beginning, Dr. Brzezinski?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: I would characterize it as a beginning. In other words, there are a lot of things we don't know that could be quite critical to what happens. First of all, we don't know if Saddam is alive because I assume we were trying to get him. If we did get him, it would be my judgment that those immediately around him would try to hide the fact that he's dead. So we don't know if he's alive. Perhaps he is. Probably he is. But he could be dead. Secondly, we don't know that they have weapons of mass destruction and if they'll use them in the next few days. That will have some bearing on how the war is assessed by the world.

JIM LEHRER: Col. Gardiner said we'll know in a couple of days as the troops move toward Baghdad, --

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: Exactly.

JIM LEHRER: -- we'll find out.

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: Exactly. Thirdly we don't know to what extent some key commanders are quietly negotiating with us about an arrangement. Remember when Nazi Germany was falling, already six months before the end of the war, some key Nazi commanders started negotiating quietly with us about disengaging, capitulating. I suspect something like this may be happening but it's very hard to assess its scale. So there are certain very basic things which could define what happens next week that we literally don't know anything about.

JIM LEHRER: How do you feel?

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: Well, I share some of the sense of optimism. I think there are some interesting signs that it's possible that the Iraqi government is sort of losing control of the street, of the territory of Iraq. You had in the last couple of days Iraqis beginning to speak frankly to foreign reporters and saying, we hope the Americans come soon. That's the kind of thing you just never heard. And when you've had a region, a country that's been under this totalitarian control and the control begins to crack, things can change sometimes suddenly. At the same time, if you look internationally, we're seeing... again this is still very much the beginning, but I think some of the themes that we'll... we'll see during the war are already beginning to emerge. There's the question, are the Turks going to move in to northern Iraq? There's been some talk about that, some concern expressed. It's not clear where that's going, but that's definitely something to watch. At the European Union summit, Europe remains very divided, which means that Europe can't really speak with one voice for or against the American position in the war. I think one reason why France and Russia have been so vocal and even sometimes so bitter in their commentary is this sense that there has not... they have not succeeded in building a kind of an airtight, broad anti-war coalition.

JIM LEHRER: I was struck... speaking of that, I was struck today by Russian Pres. Putin, the French, the people who were... the Pakistanis, the people who were pro... I mean, anti-war or kind of very, very much ambivalent continued the criticism today after it began. Is that normal? Is that par for the course?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: Oh, I think so. After all there was a basic disagreement between them and us as to whether the war should be initiated now or whether the U.N. process ought to continue. So I think it would be totally unrealistic for them to change their minds in 24 hours. However, if the war ends very quickly, if there is a massive breakdown of the Iraqi regime, prompt capitulation perhaps in a piecemeal fashion, then obviously a lot of the anti-war sentiment around the world will decline even though subsequently people will be asking, what about these weapons of mass destruction? You said you had to go to war because they existed. Why weren't they there? So that could be a problem. But basically it seems to me what happens on the battlefield will affect a great deal what is being thought by the world public opinion.

JIM LEHRER: Going after Saddam Hussein in such a direct way as clearly the U.S. did last night, does that make sense to you?

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: Absolutely. I mean, you know, people often ask, if you had been able to have killed Hitler, would you have killed Hitler? The answer is usually yes I would have. Saddam Hussein has exercised totalitarian control. If you can kill him or if you can so shake him that he's unable to make decisions or he sort of is in a panic, in a fog, that weakens resistance, it weakens their ability to control the defensive operations. And I think again it begins to separate the regime from the people.

JIM LEHRER: Explain the rationale of this. It's against... U.S. Government policy to assassinate a foreign leader -- that is, to go in there with a with somebody with a pistol and kill Saddam Hussein. But it's okay to go in there with Cruise missiles and bombs and all of that to try to do the same thing.

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: Well, it may be a very formalistic distinction, but I would say that it is wise to have a policy prohibiting the deliberate assassination of foreign leaders, even if they are totalitarian despots but if you are in a state of war with another state and if that leadership is, in fact, in charge of the war effort, then I think you're perfectly justified in attacking it as you would be in attacking, let's say, the command headquarters of a division that you are combating in the field. It is an act of war to try to destroy the enemy. So that distinction I think is valid. However, there's no doubt that given the international opposition to the initiation of the war by the United States and the feeling that that was quite unilateral -- if that attack had succeeded in killing Saddam and this became known immediately, there probably would be some feeling that we assassinated him and there would be some people who would argue that the United States is becoming a global gangster. So there is perhaps a political price that could have been paid here, but still I think the fact that there's a war makes it altogether a different game.

JIM LEHRER: Do you see it similarly?

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: Yeah but I would add that some of the same countries who would say you've assassinated Saddam Hussein if we don't succeed, and we have to fight a conventional war, they'll say, oh, you terrible Americans, you're inflicting damage on the Iraqi infrastructure. I mean, I think there are a lot of people out there that have just decided that Pres. Bush is wrong, the United States is wrong and no matter what we do they will find a reason to protest against it or to oppose it. But I do think it is the merciful, it is the humane, it's the right thing to do to try to decapitate the regime and spare the people as much of the horrors of war as you possibly can.

JIM LEHRER: But what would you say to somebody who would say, yeah, but we could have maybe done it with six assassins rather than 250,000 troops six months ago?

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: Possibly. Might not have succeeded but also I think there is a difference between war and peace.

JIM LEHRER: It's a moral issue?

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: I suppose it is a moral issue. It's a practical issue as well. I think the United States of America is not actually the Soprano crime family. And we don't generally engage in hits against our enemies. And I think it's probably just as well that we keep it that way. But in war, I think it's absolutely the right thing to do to look for the least costly, least risky, most effective way of disabling the enemy.

JIM LEHRER: Back to the big picture before we go. Do you agree with the earlier analysis that essentially what may be happening here, that the original battle plan of the United States-led forces was to go in there with a big, you know, big shock-and-awe thing and then when they had the target of opportunity, they did that last night and resistance seemed to be crumbling. And they've kind of backed off and hope they don't have to do that. Does that make sense to you?

ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: Well, not quite because I don't think we have evidence that resistance is crumbling because we haven't really challenged it. I think what is far more likely in my view is this. There's been an enormous amount of information put out on how we're going to pulverize them and all of the different tactics and strategies and the weapons we're going to use were outlined in great detail with occasional allegations that there are leaks and they shouldn't have leaked. I think all of that was designed to really convince the Iraqi military that war is suicide. And then quietly at the same time probably efforts were being made to approach individual commanders. And I think at this stage, we are giving them the option of choosing whether they wish to fight or, in fact, quit. And probably if they don't start quitting in large numbers, the real war will start fairly soon. And then we'll see some of the things that were predicted.

JIM LEHRER: How do you see this?

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: I would agree and I would also add that everybody says that the Bush administration is so famously closed mouth and they never tell the press anything except for the secret war plans that somehow keep appearing on the front pages of the newspaper. So I think, you know, you basically lay out all the options as your secret war plan now being leaked and the Iraqis are sitting there first of all just impressed with how strong you are but at the same time they have no more idea about what you're actually going to do than they did at the beginning.

JIM LEHRER: So if you scare them enough, you don't even have to exercise this leaked war plan is what you're saying.

MARGARET WARNER: Well, the hope is it would be just like the battle of Jericho. You walk around the wall seven times blowing the trumpets and the walls fall down.

JIM LEHRER: Or put a gun to somebody and say put your hands up and you don't have to fire it.

WALTER RUSSELL MEAD: Exactly right.

JIM LEHRER: All right. Thank you both very much.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the major Iraq developments of the day: The U.S. Military sent ground forces into Iraq and launched new air raids on Baghdad, hours after targeting Saddam Hussein and his top advisers in Baghdad. The Turkish parliament agreed to let U.S. warplanes use Turkey's airspace, and the start of the war sparked protests in this country and around the world. Stay tuned on PBS for special war programming tonight that includes an edition of Washington Week, and a "NewsHour" special after that. And, as always, we'll see you online, and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.