The next fifty years; A Nation's Policy for Its Future
I'm next. Thank you Messiah. They are monitored every member and go through rubble during America. God thanks. National Education radio presenting a series of programs exposing a variety of opinions on the future of the democratic environment. These views were given at the 50 nuclear conference I'm the American Institute of planners held in Washington in October of last year. In attendance was anyon public affairs director Bill Greenwood. This is the 12th in our 13 week series of programs exploring the needs of
America and planning for development during the next 50 years. This week the nation's policy for its future the first in a two week examination of such areas as national policies research needs for the future. The planned use of America's natural resources new incentives and controls and a study of potential new institutions which might be deemed desirable during the next half century of development in America. To speak on these broad topics will be Economist Lyle Fitch psychologist Herbert Simon and economist Joseph Fischer. Details on all of our guests as this week's program proceeds. First some biographical data on our first speaker Dr Lyle Fitch. He is currently serving as president of the Institute of Public Administration. He is a former city administrator for the city of New York. Lionel Fitch is a leader of research projects concerned with urban planning
finance and administration. He has served as a consultant to various governmental bodies including the United Nations plus agencies of the federal and local levels of government. Dr. Fitch has been a lecturer at Brooklyn College. Wesley and I and Columbia University among his many publications is the book urban transportation and public policy. To speak now on the needs of America during the next 50 years here is economist Dr. Lionel Fitch. To follow their extraordinary outpouring of wisdom. Their short tradition and inspiration displayed here in the past few days. Cryer said men should speak with the tongues of angels. But on fortune on my own I have to say it is more like the Treasurer's Report. I remind my show off a little old lady. When she
was asked quite sure thought of the astronauts. When they were for it flying around the earth and she said there should be a home watching television as God intended. I've fallen from where I'm betraying Herman Kahn and Scott Brown that leaves a lot of middle ground. While it is probably fair to say that the free enterprise market oriented ideology has been America's predominant ideal of social organization the Americans being highly pragmatic have never hesitated. To depart from this ideology and when it suited their convenience and to follow a quite different ideology of collective action for national development. Indeed your comparison of American 19th century experience
with the travel Welch of today's less developed countries makes it quite plain that the American Shepherd possessed a genius for social cooperation in matters large and small. I would agree on equality. Or at degree equalled by few other societies throughout its history. United States collectively has been vitally concerned with national development. And National Development goals have always played a large part in shaping policy public action and have provided much of the cement which has held the society together. The first essential in the policy planning process is goals and objectives which can command a working consensus such consensus as underlay expansionist policies that open the West and promoted the settlement of the front to rear the provision of land
the protection of settlers the construction of roads canals and railroads the provision of communication and establishment of law and order. The provision of education. And other public services. I think a few peoples anywhere have ever had a public commitment. Which is matched the American commitment to education. And in this connection of particular interest is the chain of developments which we began in 1862 with passage of the moral act establishing the land grant colleges. Bush was the first of a series of action to foster the development of agriculture through research education and dissemination of information. By means of a widespread apparatus reaching from the federal government down through a state Agriculture Department and state universities to cow dish and county agents and finally to
individual farmers. The apparatus was shot from under the waiter by market and pricing arrangements designed to protect farmers from the vicissitudes of the free market and unplanned production and price fluctuations at the benefits of this intervention have not been always completely salutary. Does not alter the fact that the agriculture development policy in the largest Spanish measuring success. In American agriculture today is the productive miracle of the world. Not great advantage. Ordinarily our show shared with Storm and turkey lunch and most of the nation's development policies have been evolving controversial. Rather than sweetness and light. One nation knows that most policies have been designed to benefit particular groups or geographic shacks or economic sector or the West. Agriculture manufacturing and only indirectly. The
general welfare of the country as a whole. Even such broad social welfare policies of the Social Security majors of the 1930s were for the benefit of a special group the indigent or potentially ended and were pushed by those who fancied that their own interests would be damaged thereby. The full employment act of 1946 was one of the few instances of a momentous National Development Policy which promoted the immediate interests of nearly all groups and directly damaged few or none. The hot opposition to this watershed planning major rush and rush and almost entirely on the free market ideology not on adversely affected group interest it was indicative of the characteristic American ambivalence toward national development policy and in the same period that the Full Employment Act was being conceived. The free market ideology was renewing itself by loud outcry and enunciation the
planning and thus the national resources planning board was abolished by Congress in 1943 with stern pronouncer Montrose and no such subversion of Oregon should ever again sell or the federal Sheen. It's strictly a political end trip tradition and the great national development policies would see them not as expressions of the national will in any meaningful sense but rather is the vector r of forces representing the various groups which compete for their own advantage. My own view was that this was too cynical and too narrow. An interpretation of social idealism in general and in particular of the great national goals which mobilized generations of effort in such fields as education and public health. To put the matter another way the forces generated by broadly accepted national goals and concepts of the general welfare generate forces which themselves influenced the
direction of the national policy back door. Moreover it would appear that the formulation and pursuit. Of explicit national goals is increasingly important. In the political. Policy process. The sponsor of the Eisenhower commission on national goals after all was the least interventionist minded president of modern times. I should like to turn next to the question what I conceived. To be a. Goldfish on which we have a consensus today. Which is at least roughly parallel to the consensus which maintained in the 19th century. When we were opening the frontier developing agriculture and promoting our national development Shenstone made the day
great goals. On what transpired clabber pozole grouping consentual have to do with liquidating two major revolution. Which have been underway for a long time in the West and particularly in America. The public consequences of this new revelation are still unclear and we've had only a glimmer and thus far we've seen an eloquent statement. From the from these meetings which identified some of the goals and objectives dreamed but the central fact about the new revolution is that it is creating the new order of civilization and ultra civilization marked by the explosion of knowledge and human levels of education and by vast technological vistas and by a new insistence on the human scale a concern about people
rather than machines an artifact among the things implied by the human scale is a heightened perception by people of the world about and concerned with the welfare of the common man and man's eternal reach for the stars. It implies consideration of beauty integration urban design as well as short term monetary gain and implies public concern for human needs in physical and social planning. Rather than Shepherd on unrelated responses to the new age of managed home to our auto driver worker plagiary shaker worshipper or whatever. And I want to turn next to the book keeping phase in my discussion. Should the other day. At the meeting of. Our social new age. And the liquidating of the revolution against cash discrimination and poverty
might require a generation might require a trillion dollars. And a trillion dollars. Very startling even today to make headlines. I'm reminded of our. Reporter's conversation with. One of the great Texas oil tycoon. A reporter should do enmeshed or actually the truth you're worth a billion dollars. Or so how much should Josh show but you must remember the billion dollars doesn't buy what it used to. The baby looks like Sasha. Suppose that you took that rash three hundred thirty years and added together the gross national product of all of those years in 1966
precious. Why would you have to have a figure which is in the magnitude of about 18 trillion dollars and as our gross national production down to 1960. And if you. Add what we will have to work with in the next thirty three years in the same way you will find that it runs from somewhere between 41 or 42. 51 55 trillions of dollars in other words two and a half to three times. All of the product we've had since the country began to be shut off. Bush tomato's the astonishing statistic. No there are. Two saying. Or should just I'm showing. As vitally
important as centrals. Two factor are. Which will affect the capacity of the American economy for goal achievement. Over the coming decades. These are the increased rates of population on of the gross national product. The increased rate of population. May push the year 2000 somewhere between 280 million people and 360 million. Given the direction in which birth rates are going to next March and Lord figure may be more realistic. But I would argue that the war figure is much more consistent with gold achievement and the higher their number of technical arguments in my paper which I will not repeat here but essentially there have to
do with the fact that it will be more to go around and less danger of it just internationally shortchanged. I gotta figure I have. Figures on gross national product which I have cited should dash that the rate of growth of gross national product is going to be a vital concern because the difference between a 3 percent growth rate which is about what we have had have we had 21 turning 29 in 1066 and a 4 percent growth rate which is entirely in the ballpark is 9 trillion dollars. Which is equal to 13 years gross national product in 1066. You can see how vital it is to go to treatment. We keep up a high rate of economic growth. In the matter of 13 trillion dollars and I want her to have 9 trillion dollars
over the next 33 years. Where serious charges a figure should gash. Let me suggest some of the things we can buy. First while we can double. Or perhaps more than double. Consumption. And we would hope that that doubling of consumption would not be spread across the line but that of the larger proportion would go to the people at the bottom end of the income scale people not in the poverty trap. And there are a number of policy measures which one sanction having one connection one also sanction the fact that if ordered to achieve the full use of this potential. We're going to have to discard a lot of Leo shibboleths.
With maintaining the posh shuttle astronauts have to do with the notion. That there is some relationship between a man's fundamental arm where its interest and the amount of an income. Oh if you look at a third of a century ago and she the argument much was on going on about eliminating depression. You find that very few people had any notion of what to do to get out of the Depression. Short of overthrowing the existing political and economic system. John Maynard Keynes. One of the very few who did have such perception. Very good if our poverty were due to famine or earthquake or war. If we lack material things and the resources to British We cannot expect to find the manged prosperity shop and hard work. Abstinence and invention. But on track our predicament is notoriously of another kind of comes from some failure
in the in the real devices of the mind. Nothing is required or nothing will avail except a little a very little clear thinking. So part of our escape from our dilemma and the wise use of this. Cornucopia of abundance which confronts us with a bare examination of the conventional wisdom. And a little a very little. Where thinking what else could we have. Wow I work hard. With Irish Archers. Replaced two thirds of our present housing stock provide second powders for 25 percent of all our households. And provide new household cars for all of our increasing population. We can have a level of urban infrastructure
which is about twice. Or more but we project to spend today and which is 5 I can share. With Sholom one of the problems we've been referring to everywhere and relating to pollution transportation difficulties. To the general. Aesthetic quality and efficiency of the urban environment i should it would shock them. I didn't mean that literally. What I menat pretty Shawn and I actually hire. Our kind of corporate all Shon I blush to double. Our expenditures on education per child and true virtually everybody into elementary and secondary school. And a very large proportion and higher education and all show and law and it would enable us to achieve far higher levels.
Of state and local government service. And. If we can stay out of very conflict on trade ventures federal Chevys has all of this thing to possible for us. But I would like to leave you with this thought. That most policy is made in short staffed. Ordinarily I would do not. Trade. Our quantum jumps. In public polishing and social organization in tradition and this is probably good because very few nations which will make quantum jumps in the last 200 years have produced either happiness or prosperity for the people concerned. But the fact that progress is made in charge steps does not imply a son seem to think that planning and go making are fruitful. Even a pious
exercise. I have argued on the contrary that most of our national achievements of the rested. On well are articulated national accepted goals and that increasingly these goals are supported by formal planning and implementation machinery. National policies such as the full employment policy do represent a quantum leap forward however even though they involve relatively minor. And incremental majors for him from an. Incremental decisions after all are not governed by a dash of smock and I but my national goals and objectives and as we learn from the infinitesimal calculus and from Geno's products about Achilles in the Turkish and very large and large number of even small incremental decisions can add up to very large finite shams. The point is not that progress are crews incrementally but rather the rate at which the increment occurred.
And with expanding population accelerating rate of knowledge accumulation. And a growing expectation we can expect at the rate of incremental decision adjustments also will it show Maria and this in the long run and she is our best hope. And I can't help finding. And actually. I would say one style which is essence through research experimentation and evasion education undertaken with the cooperation of federal state and local governments the universities the farmers American agriculture began a productive America and the envy of the world. Can my mama show more effort on the Urban Frontier. One way or another sure Dish will be an old wintry dawn. Now distinguished undersecretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development has put it this way.
You can build it well or you can build it carelessly one way or another you will build it. And by the end of the century you may know whether you. Whether what you have built. Represents a civilization that is worthy of respect and I mean lation. Around the world. That was New York economist Lionel Fitch. Our next speaker on this week's program is a man keenly involved in the study of motivational and psychological aspects of man's life on this planet. He is Dr. Herbert a SIMON Professor of Computer Science and Psychology at the Graduate School of Industrial Administration at the Carnegie Institute of Technology. Dr. Simon prefers to be called a behavioral scientist. For the past 10 years he has been studying decision making processes using computers to simulate human thinking. He has received honorary degrees from Yale Case Institute of Technology and Chicago University. Dr. Lyle
Fitch has served as a consultant to government and business organizations and as chairman of the board of directors of the Social Research Council of which he is currently chairman of the Behavioral Sciences Division. His writings on organizations and administration includes administration behavior organizations and the shape of automation. To discuss now the psychological behavioral and motivational needs and planning for America's development during the next 50 years. Here is Pittsburgh psychologist Dr. Herbert Simon. The subtitle of my talk probably should be. Planning for planning. And with all the discussion we've had this week broad goals of human values. I'd be a little bit diffident. About talking on the grubby details of planning and planning technique except that yesterday I heard Albert say
if we don't know what the earthly paradise looks like. The means for arriving at it become more important. I think we certainly don't know what the earthly paradise looks like. And for that reason it's probably important for us to spend a little of our time looking at the means. And especially since as your fish has just pointed out it seems that the that economic resources. For accomplishing what we want for arriving at that earthly paradise are no longer the severe limit that they have been for other civilizations. What are the limits then rather what are the problems of implementation that we have to solve. I'm going to talk about information as one of those problems. Information which I think is the lifeblood of the planet. And notice I didn't say the heart of planning. But the life
blood. Bringing nourishment to the process. And in talking about information systems. How trying not to be idolatrous of information and I'm accused of being idolators of computers. Not quite the same thing. I'll try not to be idolatrous either. In fact I think one of the tasks of anyone talking on this topic is to warn against such idolatry. And to insist that we ask information for what. Information of course can be used for many things but for kinds of things principally. And that may take a very gross and crude example of how these four uses. Can be used in the score card. You ask how I'm doing. We say what we're concerned with is the balance between central city and suburban populations just to use an example. We can say the score card people are moving to the suburbs or
people are moving back to the cities. We can use that same information to direct attention to what we regard as a problem. We can say it's a problem that people are moving to the suburbs. If we think it is we can use information to analyze a system structure and how it works to understand the performance of that system. We might make an assertion like suburban Islam increases other directedness and reduces inner directedness. I don't know whether that's a proposition that recent would make or not or we've heard statements about the effects that suburbanization has on togetherness. I guess as a related variable. We can. Use information to ascertain the state of a system which is different from analyzing how it works. We can make statements like the number of suburban housewives with preschool children.
X I'm sorry I didn't look up the number before I came here this morning. X is a large number I suspect.
- The next fifty years
- A Nation's Policy for Its Future
- Producing Organization
- WAMU-FM (Radio station : Washington, D.C.)
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- University of Maryland (College Park, Maryland)
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- For series info, see Item 3455. This prog.: A Nation's Policy for Its Future. Lyle C. Fitch, Herbert A. Simon, Joseph Fisher
- Social Issues
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Producing Organization: WAMU-FM (Radio station : Washington, D.C.)
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University of Maryland
Identifier: 68-26-12 (National Association of Educational Broadcasters)
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- Chicago: “The next fifty years; A Nation's Policy for Its Future,” 1968-08-26, University of Maryland, American Archive of Public Broadcasting (GBH and the Library of Congress), Boston, MA and Washington, DC, accessed November 28, 2023, http://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip-500-2j687237.
- MLA: “The next fifty years; A Nation's Policy for Its Future.” 1968-08-26. University of Maryland, American Archive of Public Broadcasting (GBH and the Library of Congress), Boston, MA and Washington, DC. Web. November 28, 2023. <http://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip-500-2j687237>.
- APA: The next fifty years; A Nation's Policy for Its Future. Boston, MA: University of Maryland, American Archive of Public Broadcasting (GBH and the Library of Congress), Boston, MA and Washington, DC. Retrieved from http://americanarchive.org/catalog/cpb-aacip-500-2j687237