Elections '78: Prelude to '80; No. 4; Election Special

<v Host>This program is made possible by a grant from the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. <v Marilyn Berger>Good evening, I'm Marilyn Berger. It's day four of our pre-election survey. <v Marilyn Berger>We've been to the West, the Southwest, the Midwest ?and? <v Marilyn Berger>South Carolina for a look at the South. <v Marilyn Berger>Had we been doing this series of nationwide political broadcasts in the early 1940s, <v Marilyn Berger>we probably would have skipped the south. <v Marilyn Berger>Southern states where then so predictably Democratic - that's with a large D - <v Marilyn Berger>that whatever political story there was in this part of the country was all over on <v Marilyn Berger>primary day. <v Marilyn Berger>The solid south, they called it. And that's exactly what it was until 1948 when <v Marilyn Berger>Strom Thurmond took on Harry Truman over the issue of civil rights and led the Dixiecrat

<v Marilyn Berger>walkout from the Democratic convention. <v Marilyn Berger>4 years later, Dwight Eisenhower made the first big Republican inroads in the now not too <v Marilyn Berger>solid south. But that didn't prevent Orval Faubus from standing up to him <v Marilyn Berger>over the issue of school integration and not too long after George Wallace <v Marilyn Berger>?stood in front of? a schoolhouse door and defied John F. <v Marilyn Berger>Kennedy once again over the same issue. <v Marilyn Berger>The only thing [tape cuts out] about the South, at least the white south in the 50s and <v Marilyn Berger>60s, was a determination to resist change. <v Marilyn Berger>But in the midst of the black-white confrontation, the dream of 1 man, <v Marilyn Berger>?Martin Luther? King became the most potent political force in the south. <v Marilyn Berger>Today, the south of frightened Freedom Riders and bombed-out black churches and <v Marilyn Berger>overturned school buses looks very different. <v Marilyn Berger>Who would have foreseen 30 years ago that Martin Luther King's picture would hang in the <v Marilyn Berger>Atlanta capital? <v Marilyn Berger>Who would have foreseen that old guard senators like Eastland, Stennis, Allen and

<v Marilyn Berger>Sparkman would be replaced by men like Bumpers, Baker and Chiles? <v Marilyn Berger>Who would have believed 30 years ago that a black man would be a candidate for the Senate <v Marilyn Berger>in Mississippi? That's Strom Thurmond would be running after black votes in South <v Marilyn Berger>Carolina? Tonight, we're going to have a look at the changing south, a <v Marilyn Berger>south that's moving away from the George Wallaces and the Lester Maddoxes. <v Marilyn Berger>With me again tonight are Kevin Phillips, political analyst and former Republican <v Marilyn Berger>strategist, and Ken Bode, former Democratic strategist and political editor <v Marilyn Berger>of The New Republic magazine. <v Marilyn Berger>There is evidence of continuity and change in the South and the Senate race right here in <v Marilyn Berger>South Carolina. As I just said, Thurmond is running after black votes <v Marilyn Berger>and he's standing on his long record of bringing federal money to the state. <v Strom Thurmond>We have worked to keep the military installations in this state. <v Strom Thurmond>And we haven't lost a single military installation, I don't believe, in South Carolina <v Strom Thurmond>since I've been in the Senate. <v Charles "Pug" Ravenel>28 years in the government of this state

<v Charles "Pug" Ravenel>and where are [tape cuts out]. <v Charles "Pug" Ravenel>Last in the nation in life expectancy. <v Franklin Ashley>South Carolinians take their politics very seriously, and this year they've got a special <v Franklin Ashley>conflict to watch. The aging veteran senior Senator Jay Strom <v Franklin Ashley>Thurmond takes on Charleston investment banker Charles D. <v Franklin Ashley>"Pug" Ravenel. Ordinarily, for Republican Thurmond it would be an easy contest, but <v Franklin Ashley>that's not the case this time. <v Franklin Ashley>Strom Thurmond came to the U.S. Senate in a write-in vote in 1954. <v Franklin Ashley>Once an iron-hard segregationist, Thurmond still holds a U.S. <v Franklin Ashley>Senate filibuster record when in 1957, he talked for over 24 <v Franklin Ashley>hours against a civil rights bill. <v Franklin Ashley>But now, in 1978, he begun ?to? <v Franklin Ashley>openly court the ?black? vote. <v Franklin Ashley>Now, Thurmond even has blacks speaking for him in ?telethon? <v Franklin Ashley>commercials. And how does he think he'll do? <v Strom Thurmond>And I think we have the support of about 95 percent of the <v Strom Thurmond>mayors, that includes all 10 of the black mayors.

<v Strom Thurmond>Uh they appreciate my interest in their community and what we've done to help the <v Strom Thurmond>community in which they live. <v Franklin Ashley>But Thurmond's strongest suit is constituent service. <v Franklin Ashley>Over the years, he's communicated a feeling that he has a personal interest <v Franklin Ashley>in each South Carolinian. <v Interviewee>He invited us all for dinner. <v Interviewee>So I went to his house for dinner. <v Interviewee>I've been knowin' him ever since uh <v Interviewee>I was a kid. <v Interviewee>I think if he's doing a good job for us and I feel that he is, and his seniority <v Interviewee>should count for much for our state. <v Interviewee>And I see no reason to change now. <v Franklin Ashley>Strom Thurmond never had an opponent as formidable as Charles Ravenel. <v Franklin Ashley>Oddly enough, Ravenel has never held elective office. <v Franklin Ashley>A Harvard grad and an ex-Wall ?Street? <v Franklin Ashley>investment banker, Ravenel returned to South Carolina in 1972, <v Franklin Ashley>and 2 years later won the Democratic nomination for governor. <v Franklin Ashley>However, he was subsequently disqualified for not meeting residency requirements.

<v Franklin Ashley>Ravenel later angered many fellow Democrats when he refused to support the subsequent <v Franklin Ashley>nominee, Brian Dorn, who was his rival in the primary, but this <v Franklin Ashley>time Ravenel is back again with his greatest strength found in the cities. <v Interviewee>I would have knocking at the gates a young man who is 40 years old, who is well trained <v Interviewee>and a leader, and I am highly in favor of his carrying on. <v Interviewee>I think that right now we need Pug Ravenel. <v Interviewee>And if they can't stand up with a man who is capable <v Interviewee>and who is qualified then they deserve exactly what they have now, which is nothing. <v Franklin Ashley>Ravenel is still behind, but gaining. ?The? <v Franklin Ashley>question now is what kind of inroads will Thurmond make into <v Franklin Ashley>the black community? <v Interviewee>Well, you know, he got 8 percent of the black vote in 1972. <v Interviewee>He didn't care about the black vote. He hasn't voted for blacks. <v Interviewee>He's voted to hold them down. And uh so now suddenly when they got the vote and it <v Interviewee>matters, he's going after 'em.

<v Franklin Ashley>Admittedly, behind in the white vote, Ravenel is working hard, meeting with black <v Franklin Ashley>leaders. He knows he must get between 85 and 90 percent of the black <v Franklin Ashley>vote in order to have any chance of winning. <v Franklin Ashley>Consequently, most black leaders have now fallen in behind Ravenel. <v Franklin Ashley>In the closing days of this campaign, Strom Thurmond has said, I don't owe the voters a <v Franklin Ashley>thing. And Pug Ravenel has seized upon that [tape cuts out], calling it pattened <v Franklin Ashley>arrogance. Now, perhaps the question may be how much do the voters <v Franklin Ashley>of South Carolina feel they owe Strom Thurmond? <v Marilyn Berger>Ken? Can you answer that question? <v Marilyn Berger>How much do the voters owe Strom Thurmond? <v Ken Bode>Well, certainly the black voters that he's courting so assiduously this year don't owe <v Ken Bode>him- owe him very much. But it's uh a very clever campaign and it's 1 that's being <v Ken Bode>duplicated by Republicans around the country pretty uh successfully. <v Ken Bode>See if the average Republican gets about 8 to 10 percent of the black vote, they know <v Ken Bode>that they can double that percentage. <v Ken Bode>It will make the difference in marginal races. So they've hired a black consulting firm <v Ken Bode>here in South Carolina to teach Republican candidates how to meet blacks, where to go <v Ken Bode>to find political blacks, churches and so forth, even how to shake hands with blacks.

<v Kevin Phillips>It's a lot more than that, Ken, it's not just a Republican strategy. <v Kevin Phillips>I think all across the country we're seeing a lot of blacks losing faith and in some <v Kevin Phillips>liberal programs and promises and ideas. <v Kevin Phillips>Strom Thurmond mentioned here that he had the support of the 10 black mayors in South <v Kevin Phillips>Carolina. But in Louisville, Kentucky, in this year's Democratic primary, the antibusing <v Kevin Phillips>candidate was a black. <v Kevin Phillips>In Mississippi, we have Charles Evers running as an independent for the United States <v Kevin Phillips>Senate, and he's running as a candidate against the Panama Canal treaties, against <v Kevin Phillips>welfare, against busing, for law and order. <v Kevin Phillips>I think blacks realize but they can't rely on the old liberal programs <v Kevin Phillips>and they're up for grabs. And it's not just smart politics- <v Ken Bode>I disagree. I think that there is going to be no programmatic tradeoff for Repub- <v Ken Bode>that blacks are going to get from the Republicans over this, and they're going to see it <v Ken Bode>very soon. You can't really believe that the future of black politics in the South rests <v Ken Bode>with guys like Evers who are running and sounding like Eastland or the political shell <v Ken Bode>game that Strom Thurmond is playing.

<v Marilyn Berger>Well, but- but the blacks are getting something from these people, as as we've seen in <v Marilyn Berger>this film, where Strom Thurmond can deliver because he's been in Congress a long time. <v Marilyn Berger>But are you suggesting there is a conservative feeling among blacks? <v Kevin Phillips>I think what they're- they're looking at here is that liberal programs, the extension <v Kevin Phillips>of them that we've seen in the last 5 or 6 years, bussing, uh liberal sociology <v Kevin Phillips>isn't relevant to your lower-middle-class black communities and they don't feel it <v Kevin Phillips>produces. A pork-barrel approach, Strom Thurmond delivering on post offices <v Kevin Phillips>and roads is worth more than a pie in the sky at the Yale Graduate School of Sociology. <v Ken Bode>Still, the liberal economic agenda is the black economic agenda. <v Ken Bode>And you look to see to the Congressional Black Caucus to see whether Republicans will <v Ken Bode>support that agenda and they simply aren't doing it. <v Marilyn Berger>Well, Ken I- I don't know. I've heard albeit they are conservatives, but I've heard white <v Marilyn Berger>conservatives who once were liberals say that the blacks and the poor- <v Marilyn Berger>white poor- are very tired of having liberal white programs that are really <v Marilyn Berger>geared to upper-middle-class morality and white <v Marilyn Berger>uh mores imposed on the blacks.

<v Marilyn Berger>For example, there was a hospital built in New York with all private rooms. <v Marilyn Berger>That's because upper-middle-class whites like private rooms. <v Marilyn Berger>The poor like to be among each other when they're sick. <v Ken Bode>I've heard white conservatives who once were like white liberals say the same thing. <v Ken Bode>But I don't think they're right. <v Kevin Phillips>Look at the energy situation, you have the N Double A C P favoring an expansionist energy <v Kevin Phillips>policy to create jobs, not the no growth, uh elitist <v Kevin Phillips>liberal conservation policy, which has everybody just riding bicycles to <v Kevin Phillips>upper-middle-class jobs. <v Ken Bode>There'll be a test here in South Carolina. Strom Thurmond and Pug Ravenel represent this <v Ken Bode>different point of view. And Strom Thurmond may be in more trouble than we are led to <v Ken Bode>believe at this point because he's always had weak opponents up to now. <v Marilyn Berger>Well, it says that Ravenel would need 85 to 90 percent of the black <v Marilyn Berger>vote in order to win. And Thurmond is going hard for them. <v Marilyn Berger>But, you know, there's another race in the south where the Republican incumbent is doing <v Marilyn Berger>no campaigning at all for black votes. <v Marilyn Berger>And that's in North Carolina. And Richard Hatch has a report. <v Richard Hatch>In North Carolina, trouble slipped up behind Senator Jesse Helms while

<v Richard Hatch>he was busy becoming the darling of America's conservative cause. <v Richard Hatch>His problems are: an off-year election in a heavily Democratic state, <v Richard Hatch>a rough and tumble challenge from Democrat John Ingram, and <v Richard Hatch>the senator's own record, as a rising star of the political right. <v Richard Hatch>Helms led opposition to the Panama Canal Treaty. <v Richard Hatch>He opposes abortion and supports prayer in the schools. <v Richard Hatch>He [tape cuts out] perfect score of 100 on his Senate votes from the American <v Richard Hatch>Conservative Union and a polar opposite 0 from the Americans <v Richard Hatch>for Democratic Action. <v Richard Hatch>The Helms campaign style is to avoid mentioning the Republican Party, <v Richard Hatch>to target his few personal appearances toward friendly audiences, and then <v Richard Hatch>to push the ideological buttons of ?conservative? <v Richard Hatch>rhetoric. <v Jesse Helms>I don't want business to run this country. <v Jesse Helms>I don't want big business and I don't want big labor union bosses, and I don't want big <v Jesse Helms>government to run [applause].

<v Richard Hatch>The Helms strategy has been to stay in Washington, appearing senatorial, <v Richard Hatch>while a huge Raleigh based organization conducts the most costless <v Richard Hatch>campaign in U.S. history. <v Richard Hatch>Making their latest financial report, Helms workers stacked up computer <v Richard Hatch>readouts with the names of 2 hundred and 70 thousand ?contributors?, <v Richard Hatch>who have sent him more than 6 million dollars. <v Richard Hatch>Only one-third of those contributors are from North Carolina. <v Richard Hatch>Helms needs money to get out the crossover vote in an off-year. <v Richard Hatch>But John Ingram is trying to turn the senator's assets into liabilities. <v John Ingram>Why does the 5 billion-dollar Republican opponent consistently <v John Ingram>send out computer letter after computer letter after computer letter, <v John Ingram>begging for a hundred and 8 thousand dollars more television, <v John Ingram>when he has received 2 free television shows? <v Richard Hatch>North Carolina's insurance commissioner, Ingram always opposes automobile

<v Richard Hatch>?rating?, but is usually overturned in court. <v Richard Hatch>He has pedaled his loud, energetic, abrasive style through 8 <v Richard Hatch>statewide campaigns. <v Richard Hatch>He is spending about $300000. <v Richard Hatch>Ingram favors the Equal Rights Amendment, and he rails against ?numerous independent? <v Richard Hatch>[tape cuts out] banks and oil companies. <v Richard Hatch>Helms is against ERA and the list of political action committees <v Richard Hatch>contributing to his campaign reads like the Fortune 500 <v Richard Hatch>of American business. <v Richard Hatch>Helms win would advance the conservative cause and increase his influence <v Richard Hatch>in the national arena. <v Richard Hatch>But Helms is a New South Republican elected in the full bloom of Richard Nixon's <v Richard Hatch>Southern Strategy. <v Richard Hatch>Whether that strategy went down with Nixon or whether it remains as an option for <v Richard Hatch>the Republican Party may be what North Carolinians are really voting on here <v Richard Hatch>next Tuesday.

<v Marilyn Berger>That's a fantastic uh campaign ?chest? <v Marilyn Berger>he's got, 5 million dollars. Where'd he get that? <v Ken Bode>Well. He's by Richard Viguerie, who is the right-wing fundraising genius [tape cuts out] <v Ken Bode>creates some uh a bank of computers in northern Virginia. <v Ken Bode>And he's an expert on the single issue constituencies that are so active in this <v Ken Bode>election. Viguerie and his mailing list are against gun control. <v Ken Bode>They're against the ERA. They're against abortion. <v Ken Bode>They're against the Panama Canal treaties. They're against the unions. <v Ken Bode>And they're for right-wing candidates. <v Marilyn Berger>That suggests that the little man is contributing to this campaign as well as the Fortune <v Marilyn Berger>500. <v Ken Bode>Oh, that's absolutely [tape cuts out]. You can't have a pile of computer names that's <v Ken Bode>uh that big without having a lot of small givers. <v Kevin Phillips>That's a very important aspect of this race, because Jesse Helms isn't in some ways just <v Kevin Phillips>a candidate for reelection to the Senate. <v Kevin Phillips>Jesse Helms has indicated, without saying that he wants to run for president in 1980, <v Kevin Phillips>that he's not ruling it out. And there's been a lot of talk. <v Kevin Phillips>And I think with some legitimacy, that the- the great Jesse Helms mailing list is <v Kevin Phillips>really in the 198- 78 Senate race is a mailing list for a possible <v Kevin Phillips>1980 presidential run.

<v Kevin Phillips>And that these people that have been contributing to Helms in this race may be <v Kevin Phillips>contributing to him ?in? a bigger rice, and that's got a lot of importance <v Kevin Phillips>because Richard Viguerie, I think has several presidential candidates. <v Kevin Phillips>1 is Jesse Helms and 1 is Phil Crane from Illinois. <v Kevin Phillips>And if he gets them in motion, they can break up Ronald Reagan's ball game. <v Marilyn Berger>[speak over each other] Let me just back up 1 minute. That boggles my mind. <v Marilyn Berger>Jesse Helms for president? <v Kevin Phillips>Jesse Helms for president. He has said that he's not ruling it out. <v Kevin Phillips>I think it's not in the sense that Jesse Helms or anybody pushing Jesse Helms thinks <v Kevin Phillips>he's going to be running in all the primaries. <v Kevin Phillips>But as a candidate, a favorite son candidate, North Carolina, which is an early primary, <v Kevin Phillips>yes, there is attention being paid to that tactical possibility. <v Ken Bode>Jesse Helms has to get through this election first. <v Ken Bode>And then 1 of the things that's a little unclear when a guy has 6 million dollars is how <v Ken Bode>much it costs to raise that money. And with Richard Viguerie, it sometimes can cost you <v Ken Bode>50, 60, 70 cents on the dollar in overhead to get that money. <v Marilyn Berger>Does that suggest he's holding some of it for 1980, Mr. Viguerie? <v Ken Bode> I don't think so. I think that uh that Jesse Helms is in a race up there against John <v Ken Bode>Ingram, the insurance commissioner, who's a fast finisher, who was given no chance to win

<v Ken Bode>the primary, who's a populist Democrat. <v Ken Bode>And the party's beginning to come together behind Ingram. <v Ken Bode>And Helms may be in more trouble than we're led to believe. <v Kevin Phillips>Well, he's in- in some trouble, perhaps, but he seems to be fairly far ahead in the <v Kevin Phillips>polls. I think that's a very important thing, that if Jesse Helms were to lose here, that <v Kevin Phillips>would be a major setback for the conservatives and for the Viguerie connected activist. <v Kevin Phillips>But it doesn't look like it at the present time. <v Kevin Phillips>And the other aspect here, which is enormously important, is the role of organized <v Kevin Phillips>labor as an issue. <v Ken Bode>Well, the people you mentioned, Crane, Viguerie and- and Helms are also very important in <v Ken Bode>the way the right-wing in America is moving against the unions, particularly in this <v Ken Bode>?election? <v Kevin Phillips>That's absolutely true. Of course, it goes beyond right-wing [tape cuts out]. <v Kevin Phillips>For example, uh South Carolina's other senator, Fritz Hollings, was 1 of the leaders in <v Kevin Phillips>the fight against the so-called labor uh reform. <v Kevin Phillips>And I think 1 of the disappointments the unions have is that almost <v Kevin Phillips>all of the southern democrats oppose them on labor reform. <v Kevin Phillips>They tend to oppose them on- on right to work issues. <v Kevin Phillips>And the South is becoming a major battleground for the unions, and they're not doing very

<v Kevin Phillips>well. <v Marilyn Berger>Well, but who do the unions have to support is their problem, isn't it? <v Marilyn Berger>[speak over each other]. <v Kevin Phillips>?Well really not anybody? <v Ken Bode>But they're prepared to make a pragmatic choice in the south right now, they know what <v Ken Bode>the political turf looks like. In Mississippi, for example, the unions got in early and <v Ken Bode>backed Maurice Dantin, the Democratic nominee, when he was an underdog in the primary. <v Ken Bode>When it was over with, they had their candidate, but I talked to a union president and I <v Ken Bode>said, "Uh what do you think of this guy? How is he in labor law reform?" And the union <v Ken Bode>president said, "Well, we're going to have to talk to him a little more on that 1." <v Marilyn Berger>Well, you know, labor is in trouble all around the country, though. They didn't do well <v Marilyn Berger>on the bill. On the labor bill. <v Ken Bode>Oh, absolutely right. <v Kevin Phillips>Well, the south is a major problem area. <v Kevin Phillips>The south is expanding the jobs down here. <v Kevin Phillips>Correlations are made that right to work states have more jobs, more plants are moving <v Kevin Phillips>there. People in the south link their prosperity to right to work laws. <v Kevin Phillips>And as a result, it's a very hard nut for the labor unions to crack. <v Marilyn Berger>I'd like to go back. You were talking about Jesse Helms as a possible presidential <v Marilyn Berger>candidate. But let's look at another state in the south where there's what some people <v Marilyn Berger>consider a real presidential candidate. And that's Howard Baker, the minority leader in

<v Marilyn Berger>the Senate. He's there ?for years? <v Marilyn Berger>And he's in 1 of the toughest races of his career. <v Marilyn Berger>It's in this race also that we can see the blurring of party lines in the south, <v Marilyn Berger>for example, the Nashville, Tennessee, in which is normally a Democratic paper, has <v Marilyn Berger>endorsed Baker. Now, John Siegenthaler is the publisher of that newspaper <v Marilyn Berger>and he also does a regular program for WDCN, the public television station in Nashville. <v Marilyn Berger>Here's his report on the Senate race there. <v John Siegenthaler>The race for the United States Senate in Tennessee has attracted some natural national <v John Siegenthaler>attention because Howard Baker is the Republican minority leader <v John Siegenthaler>and because his friends say he's seriously planning a race for the presidency in 1980. <v John Siegenthaler>So Baker takes nothing for granted. <v John Siegenthaler>He's running hard. He spends a good deal of time on the campaign trail and a lot of money <v John Siegenthaler>on the media. In the primary election, he was virtually uncontested. <v John Siegenthaler>Still, he spent 800 thousand dollars and his budget in the general election will double <v John Siegenthaler>that amount. His opponent, Mrs. Jane Eskind, is a wife <v John Siegenthaler>of a millionaire stockbroker. She's a party leader, a civic worker, and the first

<v John Siegenthaler>woman ever to win a statewide Democratic primary election. <v John Siegenthaler>She has emerged as a much tougher opponent ?that? <v John Siegenthaler>anybody had anticipated. When she entered the Democratic primary, nobody gave her <v John Siegenthaler>a chance to win. She was opposed by two well-known political figures of her party. <v John Siegenthaler>She outplanned them, outcampaigned them, outspent them, won a stunning victory <v John Siegenthaler>in the right to oppose Baker. <v John Siegenthaler>Ms. Eskind has the support of organized labor, whose leaders are upset with Baker because <v John Siegenthaler>of his vocal opposition to their labor reform legislation earlier this year. <v John Siegenthaler>Ms. Eskind has managed to finance a media campaign, which suggests that while Baker may <v John Siegenthaler>be a good talker, he doesn't listen to his constituents. <v John Siegenthaler>His leadership role in the passage of the Panama Canal treaties is an issue that is <v John Siegenthaler>raised in some of the Eskind commercials on TV, such as this 1. <v Speaker>You know, federal spending is really getting out of control. <v Speaker>People aren't going to stand for the way we gave away - the Panama Canal? <v Speaker>That was downright - criminal the price of food these days. <v Speaker>There's not enough - jobs are what we need.

<v Speaker>I'd like to see - a senator who knows what's on peoples' minds. <v Speaker>I'm Jane Eskind. A good senator has to be more than a good talker. <v Speaker>In Tennessee, a good senator has to be a good listener. <v Speaker>Jane Eskind: Democrat for the Senate, for Tennessee. <v John Siegenthaler>Senator Baker is a cautious, careful politician. <v John Siegenthaler>As a campaign stratagem, he tries to ignore Jane Eskind as much as possible. <v John Siegenthaler>He declined to debate her. He also uh ignores any mention of his votes <v John Siegenthaler>in favor of the Panama Canal treaties. <v John Siegenthaler>He knows that those votes ran contrary to the voter sentiment in Tennessee. <v John Siegenthaler>His media message has never mentioned the Panama Canal. <v John Siegenthaler>Instead, uh his television commercials usually conclude, as this 1 does, <v John Siegenthaler>with a not so subtle hint, that it takes courage to make unpopular decisions. <v Howard Baker>More than almost anything else, Tennesseans fear runaway inflation. <v Howard Baker>It threatens our families and our very future. <v Howard Baker>We agree that government spending has to be brought in line and our free economy must <v Howard Baker>be allowed to prosper. We have a right to expect more stable taxes at all levels.

<v Howard Baker>But as a Tennesseean, I believe we've got to make some unpopular decisions if we hope <v Howard Baker>to control inflation. <v Television Host>Making unpopular decisions takes courage. <v Television Host>And these days that's hard to find. <v John Siegenthaler>Well, Howard Baker is making a serious effort to attract substantial numbers of black <v John Siegenthaler>voters, obviously, in an attempt to show national party leaders that the right Republican <v John Siegenthaler>from the middle of the road can pull from all segments of the voter spectrum. <v John Siegenthaler>A leader in his campaign is Frances Hooks, of Memphis, the wife of Ben Hooks, who's the <v John Siegenthaler>national executive secretary of the NAACP. <v John Siegenthaler>Democratic Party leaders that I've talked to don't really expect Jane Eskind to beat <v John Siegenthaler>Howard Baker, but they've noted that in the closing days of the campaign, the polls have <v John Siegenthaler>indicated that the gap between the 2 candidates has narrowed and that may have encouraged <v John Siegenthaler>President Carter to make a quick 2 hour stop in Nashville on behalf of the statewide <v John Siegenthaler>Democratic candidates in the closing days of the campaign. <v John Siegenthaler>For Baker's part, he said he would welcome a confrontation with Carter on Tennessee soil. <v John Siegenthaler>He said he expected all along that the ?president would?

<v John Siegenthaler>try to cut his margin of victory. <v John Siegenthaler>Whether it will help Howard Baker or hurt him won't be known until all the votes are <v John Siegenthaler>counted. As Howard Baker himself said last week, "I won't know. <v John Siegenthaler>I'm cut until I see the blood." <v Marilyn Berger>Ken, ?inaudible? Are we going to see blood? Is Baker [tape cuts out] <v Ken Bode>It may be a case of Baker losing even if he wins. <v Ken Bode>Because when you're a presidential contender and that's what Baker considers himself, <v Ken Bode>you're judged by the margin of your win, not just whether you win. <v Ken Bode>And Baker won by over 60 percent last time. <v Ken Bode>This time, he's in a real tough race. And uh GOP moderates who really would like to see <v Ken Bode>a Baker candidacy in 1980 say he's gotta win by a minimum of 55 percent <v Ken Bode>in this race. <v Kevin Phillips>He's in a real squeeze play here. He's got on 1 side the Carter administration <v Kevin Phillips>that would like to see that majority shaved down as much as possible to discredit him as <v Kevin Phillips>a 1980 candidate. <v Kevin Phillips>And on the other side, he has the conservative Republicans and the conservative activists <v Kevin Phillips>who'd like to see him shaved down for the same ?reasons? They don't want to see him ?in <v Kevin Phillips>elections? They don't want to see his [tape cuts out] be rewarded on the Panama <v Kevin Phillips>Canal issue.

<v Marilyn Berger>Kevin, is this the same thing we saw last night when we were talking about the Percy race <v Marilyn Berger>where conservatives were trying to ?inaudible? <v Marilyn Berger>they're too conservative Republicans? <v Kevin Phillips>It's certainly a cousin, but it's not exactly the same ?thing? <v Kevin Phillips>It's really related front and center to the Panama Canal issue. <v Kevin Phillips>When Howard Baker took the lead on that and pulled Jimmy Carter's chestnuts out of the <v Kevin Phillips>fire, he did so uh very much to the chagrin <v Kevin Phillips>of the right-wing Republicans. And as a result, they've even organized a committee to <v Kevin Phillips>defeat Howard Baker and filed with the Federal Election Commission as the only committee <v Kevin Phillips>to defeat and not elect a candidate. <v Ken Bode>Well, that's- that's Howard Baker this year. That's going to hurt Howard Baker ?this <v Ken Bode>year? and it's also gonna ?be a? <v Ken Bode>problem for him to take his opponent very seriously, who's using this Panama Canal issue <v Ken Bode>effectively. [tape cuts out] He thought she didn't have a chance. <v Ken Bode>And now he finds himself looking over his shoulder and she's surging. <v Ken Bode>She's spending a lot of her own money at the end of this. <v Ken Bode>She's a millionaire. She can afford it. So Baker could really be in trouble. <v Marilyn Berger>I'm interested in this Carter angle, though. Does the White House really see Baker as the <v Marilyn Berger>threat in 1980? <v Kevin Phillips>I believe they do for the following reasons: Jimmy Carter thinks that either Gerald Ford <v Kevin Phillips>or Ronald Reagan uh would lose to him and wouldn't crack his southern base for

<v Kevin Phillips>different reasons. But he feels that Howard [tape cuts out] threat, because Howard Baker <v Kevin Phillips>would take part of the south, the energy states, Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, <v Kevin Phillips>that are vulnerable because of that, on the energy issue, and he'd also take the <v Kevin Phillips>upper south, which is Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, his home base, and that would <v Kevin Phillips>take half of the south away. That makes him a real threat to Carter on Carter's home <v Kevin Phillips>turf. <v Marilyn Berger>And he could do that while holding on to some of the north, I take it? <v Kevin Phillips>Yes, I think he could. Howard Baker has run fairly well in the polls as a <v Kevin Phillips>[tape cuts out] with a moderate appeal nationally. <v Marilyn Berger>So you were talking about Panama before. <v Marilyn Berger>Both of you were. I- do you really think that's gonna be important in 1980? <v Ken Bode>Not me. <v Marilyn Berger>You don't think so? <v Ken Bode>Well, no I think it-. <v Kevin Phillips>I-. <v Ken Bode>Go ahead. <v Kevin Phillips>I do, because it's important leading up to 1980. <v Kevin Phillips>I think it's important in the sense that a Republican presidential candidate probably <v Kevin Phillips>can't get the nomination if he's been on the wrong side of [tape cuts out] could've <v Kevin Phillips>straddled Panama, but I don't think he can be on the wrong side-. <v Ken Bode>That's what the right-wing said. That's what they warned Baker about.

<v Ken Bode>[tape cuts out] get the litmus test of 1980. I just think that the Panama Canal is this <v Ken Bode>year's buzz word. It doesn't have any kind of staying power as an issue <v Ken Bode>insofar as the electorate in general is concerned. <v Ken Bode>And if it hurts anybody in the south, lord knows it should hurt Jimmy Carter, who brought <v Ken Bode>home the treaties. <v Marilyn Berger>Well and I think, though, that foreign policy doesn't have a decisive effect in a <v Marilyn Berger>national ?election? and it may, as you say, have a uh an importance in a ?selection <v Marilyn Berger>process?. But I think come 1980, whoever the Republican candidate is <v Marilyn Berger>and Jimmy Carter is gonna be elected much more on domestic issues than <v Marilyn Berger>?foreign policy?. <v Kevin Phillips>Well, that's quite true. Carter, I think, has recovered in the south from the Panama <v Kevin Phillips>problem. It did hurt him in the polls down here, but so did almost everything else in the <v Kevin Phillips>middle of 1978. And he seemed to jump up down here. <v Kevin Phillips>Uh I think he's probably got Panama largely past him. <v Kevin Phillips>I think it's something that can impact the Republican nomination process, though. <v Ken Bode>You know, indications are, as I see it, that in the South. <v Ken Bode>Jimmy Carter's in trouble for very much the same reasons that he's in trouble in the rest <v Ken Bode>of the country. He hasn't gotten a hold on inflation, and he doesn't really seem, even

<v Ken Bode>though he's a native son, doesn't really seem to be up to the job. <v Ken Bode>He's not very popular. The Mississippi candidate for the Senate in this [tape cuts out] <v Ken Bode>won't have Jimmy Carter's [tape cuts out] Polls just [tape cuts out] showed Edward <v Ken Bode>Kennedy running ahead of Jimmy Carter even in the south. <v Marilyn Berger>Well, don't forget that when we were in Texas there [tape cuts out] said that there's a <v Marilyn Berger>certain amount of sympathy for Carter. <v Marilyn Berger>And there is a feeling, as I've said before, throughout the country, that nobody can do <v Marilyn Berger>the job. And if Carter isn't up to is say, "Who is?" That, nobody really <v Marilyn Berger>has an answer. <v Ken Bode>I doubt, they're gonna vote for him again, though, on grounds that they feel sorry for <v Ken Bode>'im. <v Kevin Phillips>Carter has 1 thing going for him down here, which I think people shouldn't overlook. <v Kevin Phillips>Uh [tape cuts out] from the idea of being another son of the south, he's a man of ?shows <v Kevin Phillips>not just? faith of a lot of people in the south, a man perceived of as bringing a moral <v Kevin Phillips>influence to the White House. We've seen that in the polls on this [tape cuts out] And I <v Kevin Phillips>think it's a factor not to be overlooked. <v Marilyn Berger>Very quickly, you've been talking here about ?the south? <v Marilyn Berger>Is there really a new south? <v Kevin Phillips>I kind of think the new south is overstated.

<v Kevin Phillips>The term came in the 1870s. <v Kevin Phillips>It didn't turn out to be a new south then. <v Kevin Phillips>I don't think it really will now. Russell [tape cuts out] still protecting the [tape cuts <v Kevin Phillips>out] the coast of Louisiana and Harry Byrd is still carrying out that dynasty in <v Kevin Phillips>Virginia. <v Ken Bode>Depends on where you look. In Alabama, Stonewall, Jim Allen is gone. <v Ken Bode>John Sparkman is gone. George Wallace is gone. <v Ken Bode>In Arkansas, you're gonna have a 31-year-old Democratic governor who began in politics as <v Ken Bode>a McGovern organizer, of all things. <v Marilyn Berger>?Me? too. Though, I think that the feeling here ?as a Southerner? <v Marilyn Berger>as I am, comes down to the south. There is a different sense. <v Marilyn Berger>And if that's not a new south, I don't know what it is, but we are going to be leaving <v Marilyn Berger>the south. We're gonna be headed up for New York and we'll be ?right back? <v Marilyn Berger>with our 5th report. And then also from New York we'll bring you a ?special? <v Marilyn Berger>program on Sunday. <v Marilyn Berger>I'm Marilyn Berger. Have a good evening. <v Television Host>Was produced by KERA-TV and South Carolina Educational Television, who

<v Television Host>are solely symbol for its content, and was made possible by a grant from a Corporation <v Television Host>for Public Broadcasting. <v Television Host>Next on Nova, Alaska: The Closing Frontier. <v Interviewee>Man has to be compatible with the wilderness to survive. <v Interviewee>I believe that's true. If you destroy the wilderness, nature, why, it's going <v Interviewee>to catch up with you. <v Television Host>Alaska, our nation's last wilderness. <v Television Host>But can wilderness compete with development? <v Television Host>It's the land battle of the century. <v Television Host>Alaska: The Closing Frontier. <v Television Host>Next time on Nova. <v Television Host>This program was produced by WGBH Boston, which is solely responsible for its ?content?.

<v Television Host>Major funding for Nova is provided by this station and by other public television <v Television Host>stations. Additional funding is provided by a grant ?from the? <v Television Host>Exxon cooperation and the National Science Foundation. <v Interviewee>Well, I think the main thing I wanted to see Alaska as Alaska is supposed to be. <v Interviewee>Not- not- not cities and a lot of people. <v Interviewee>But see, the beauty of Alaska is it really is. <v Television Host>To see the beauty of Alaska is to step back in history. <v Television Host>To see the land as it was before man left his imprint.

<v Television Host>To see America as a frontier wilderness. <v Television Host>Now Alaska is the only frontier left. <v Television Host>[tape cuts out] came to Alaska in 19 [tape cuts out]. <v Television Host>17 years later, he settled in ?a small valley?