PBS NewsHour; January 10, 2012 3:00pm-4:00pm PST

Captioning sponsored by MacNEIL/LEHRER PRODUCTIONS

>> Woodruff: NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS CAST BALLOTS TODAY IN THE NATION'S FIRST PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY. GOOD EVENING. I'M JUDY WOODRUFF.

>> Ifill: AND I'M GWEN IFILL, IN MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE. ON THE NEWSHOUR TONIGHT, WE HAVE FULL COVERAGE OF THE FINAL FLURRY OF CAMPAIGN APPEARANCES, AS THE REPUBLICAN RIVALS EACH AIMED FOR A STRONG SHOWING.

>> I FEEL GOOD BECAUSE WE'VE DONE EVERYTHING HUMANLY POSSIBLE.

>> I FEEL LIKE I'M AN EPISODE OF SURVIVOR. JUST KEEP ME ON THE ISLAND.

>> Woodruff: WE GET ANALYSIS FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLSTER ANDREW SMITH, STUART ROTHENBERG OF THE "ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT," AND NEWSHOUR POLITICAL EDITOR CHRISTINA BELLANTONI.

>> Ifill: THEN, JEFFREY BROWN LOOKS AT TODAY'S SUPREME COURT ARGUMENTS ABOUT GOVERNMENT REGULATION OF PROFANITY OVER THE AIRWAVES WITH MARCIA COYLE OF THE "NATIONAL LAW JOURNAL."

>> Woodruff: MARGARET WARNER UPDATES THE BLOODSHED IN SYRIA AS PRESIDENT ASSAD THREATENS AN "IRON HAND" AGAINST PROTESTERS.

>> Ifill: RAY SUAREZ EXAMINES NORTH CAROLINA'S MOVE TO COMPENSATE PEOPLE STERILIZED AGAINST THEIR WILL.

>> Woodruff: AND WE CLOSE WITH SOME FINAL THOUGHTS ON THE CAMPAIGN FROM MARK SHIELDS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND DAVID BROOKS. THAT'S ALL AHEAD ON TONIGHT'S NEWSHOUR. MAJOR FUNDING FOR THE PBS NEWSHOUR HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY: THE WILLIAM AND FLORA HEWLETT FOUNDATION, WORKING TO SOLVE SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS AT HOME AND AROUND THE WORLD. AND WITH THE ONGOING SUPPORT OF THESE INSTITUTIONS AND FOUNDATIONS. AND... THIS PROGRAM WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING. AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU. THANK YOU.

>> Ifill: THEY VOTED IN NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY IN THE FIRST PRIMARY OF THIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEAR. BY ALL ACCOUNTS, THE GRANITE STATE WAS MITT ROMNEY'S TO LOSE, WITH THE REST OF THE REPUBLICAN FIELD TRYING TO HOLD DOWN HIS MARGIN OF VICTORY. AT THE VERY MOMENT NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY DAY FINALLY ARRIVED, THE TINY HAMLET OF DIXVILLE NOTCH CAST ITS TRADITION FIRST VOTE AT MIDNIGHT. THE OUTCOME: A TIE BETWEEN FORMER MASSACHUSETTS GOVERNOR MITT ROMNEY AND FORMER UTAH GOVERNOR JON HUNTSMAN AT TWO VOTES APIECE.

>> I'M VERY HAPPY WITH THE RESULTS. VERY CLOSE ELECTION.

>> Ifill: HOURS LATER AS VOTERS CAME OUT IN EARNEST, THE QUESTION WAS HOW CLOSE WOULD THIS ONE REALLY BE?

>> WE WANT MITT.

>> Ifill: THE SCENE AROUND ROMNEY WAS LED BY WIDE MARGINS IN EVERY PRE-ELECTION POLL. IT WAS CHAOTIC THIS MORNING.

>> VERY EXCITING.

>> Ifill: PLENTY OF SUPPORTERS WERE ON HAND TO GREET HIM OUTSIDE A MANCHESTER SCHOOL. ONE OF THE STATE'S LARGEST POLLING PLACES. HUNTSMAN, WHOSE STANDING HAS SUDDENLY RISEN DURING THE WHAT'S WEEK, HOPED TO DUPLICATE THE DIXVILLE NOTCH RESULTS ELSEWHERE IN THE STATE AND PERHAPS SURGE INTO SECOND PLACE. HE SKIPPED IOWA TO FOCUS ON NEW HAMPSHIRE.

>> WE'VE DONE EVERYTHING HUMANLY POSSIBLE OVER THE LAST MANY MONTHS. NOW THE VOTERS OF THIS STATE WHO I KNOW ARE WELL INFORMED. THEY'RE GOING TO TURN OUT AND MAKE A DECISION THAT THEY FEEL STRONGLY ABOUT.

>> Ifill: ROMNEY'S OTHER RIVALS ALSO WORKED TO CHIP AWAY AT HIS LEAD AS THEY FOUGHT THROUGH THE ELECTION DAY MEDIA CRUSH BUT NONE OF THEM WENT AS FAR AS TO PREDICT AN UPSET. FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE NEWT GINGRICH ACTUALLY CONCEDED A ROMNEY VICTORY LAST NIGHT.

>> TEXAS CONGRESSMAN RON PAUL WHO PLACED THIRD IN IOWA WORKED TO HOLD ON TO HIS SOLID SECOND PLACE POLL STANDING HERE TO COME IN AS NEW HAMPSHIRE RUNNER-UP. FORMER PENNSYLVANIA SENATOR RICK SANTORUM FINISHED IN A VIRTUAL TIE WITH ROMNEY IN IOWA AND HAS SPENT MORE TIME IN NEW HAMPSHIRE THAN ANY OTHER CANDIDATE OTHER THAN ROMNEY AND HUNTSMAN. HE SAID THE FOCUS SHOULD BE WHO CAN BEAT PRESIDENT OBAMA.

>> VOTE FOR THE CANDIDATE WHO HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF MATCHING UP AGAINST BARACK OBAMA, WINNING THIS ELECTION WITH BROAD, BOLD CONTRASTS. WE NEED TO MAKE BARACK OBAMA THE ISSUE IN THIS CAMPAIGN.

>> Ifill: THE PRESIDENT IS ALSO ON THE BALLOT TODAY BUT UNCHALLENGED BY ANY MAJOR DEMOCRAT. WHEN HIS SUPPORTERS TOOK THEIR TURN BEHIND THE POLLING BOOTH CURTAINS IN DIXVILLE NOTCH, HE NATURALLY WON.

>> I'D LIKE TO SHOW YOU MY SHIRT.

>> I LIKE THAT. I'M GLAD YOU'RE NOT 21 OR ACTUALLY 35 YET.

>> Ifill: NEXT UP ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL IS SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE TEXAS GOVERNOR RICK PERRY, WHO SKIPPED NEW HAMPSHIRE, IS ALREADY CAMPAIGNING AND ATTACKING ROMNEY. THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY THERE IS 11 DAYS AWAY. JUDY, YOU KNOW ACTUALLY EVERYBODY IS FOCUSING ON SOUTH CAROLINA. SOME FOLKS ARE LEAVING FOR THAT DESTINATION INCLUDING NEWT GINGRICH LATER TONIGHT. BUT WHAT'S HAPPENING HERE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING RACE FOR SECOND PLACE INCLUDING SOMEONE LIKE JON HUNTSMAN WHO REALLY DOESN'T HAVE A CHANCE TO SURVIVE OR AT LEAST A PASS FOR SURVIVAL MUCH AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE. WE DID SOMETHING INTERESTING TODAY, JUDY. WE CALLED BACK THE COUPLE WE TALKED TO FOR LAST NIGHT'S PIECE. YOU REMEMBER THEM? WE TALKED TO THEM ABOUT THEY WERE UNDECIDED. THEY HAD CHANGED THEIR MINDS. SO WE ASKED THEM WHO DO YOU REALLY BOTH FOR? BOTH OF THEM VOTED FOR JON HUNTSMAN. IF THOSE INDEPENDENTS MADE UP THEIR MIND, MAYBE HE'LL SEE A SURGE TONIGHT.

>> Woodruff: GWEN, WE TALK ABOUT EXPECTATIONS AND THEY HAVE CHANGED. THIS HAS BEEN A TOUGH COUPLE OF DAYS FOR MILTATE ROMNEY. WHO SETS THOSE EXPECTATIONS? I THINK PEOPLE WATCHING THIS CRAZY PROCESS OFTEN WANT TO KNOW WHO IS THE GREAT SETTER OF NUMBERS? WHO COMES IN FIRST, SECOND AND THIRD AND BY HOW MUCH?

>> Ifill: YOU KNOW, IT WAS ONLY A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO, IF YOU LOOK ON THE GRAPH YOU SEE THAT MITT ROMNEY HAS BEEN LEADING BY MULTIPLE DOUBLE DIJ IS FOR A LONG, LONG TIME. IN THE LAST WEEK HE'S BEGUN TO LOSE SOME GROUND, SO PEOPLE BEGIN TO THINK IF YOU DON'T WIN BY 30 POINTS, THEN YOU DIDN'T WIN ESPECIALLY IF YOU'VE RUN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE BEFORE, YOU WERE THE GOVERNOR OF MASSACHUSETTS. BUT ON THE OTHER HAND, THE EXPECTATIONS FOR JON HUNTSMAN ARE ALSO HIGH BECAUSE HE SPENT SO MUCH TIME CAMPAIGNING HERE AND SKIPPED NEW HAMPSHIRE. THAT'S WHERE THE EXPECTATIONS GAME. SOMETIMES THE CANDIDATES SET THEM THEMSELVES.

>> Woodruff: WHAT ABOUT SOMEBODY LIKE RON PAUL WHO MADE A BIG EFFORT IN IOWA AND CAME IN A CLOSE THIRD RIGHT BEHIND ROMNEY AND SANTORUM. AND WHO HAS BEEN REALLY GIVING IT ALL, GIVING IT HIS ALL THIS WEEK.

>> Ifill: THE PROBLEM IS HE HASN'T EXACTLY BEEN GIVING IT HIS ALL. HE DIDN'T COME STRAIGHT HERE FROM IOWA. HE TOOK A COUPLE OF DAYS OFF. HE'S BEEN SHOWING UP AND CAMPAIGNING BUT NOT WITH THE KIND OF VIGOR WE SAW HIM CAMPAIGNING WITH IN IOWA. HIS NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT THAT AS WELL. AS WE TALKED ABOUT A LOT, RON PAUL VOTERS AREN'T GOING ANYWHERE. HE STARTED DEFENDING ROMNEY AGAINST THE ATTACKS ON HIM BY SOME OF THE OTHER CANDIDATES. THAT'S A CURIOUS TURN OF EVENTS. WE'RE WAIT TO GO SEE WHAT THAT MEANS.

>> Woodruff: WHAT ABOUT SANTORUM, THE MAN WHO DID COME IN A VERY CLOSE SECOND IN IOWA? THERE'S SOME DISCUSSION NOW ABOUT WHETHER HE SHOULD HAVE COMPETED IN NEW HAMPSHIRE OR GONE STRAIGHT ON TO SOUTH CAROLINA.

>> Reporter: IT'S INTERESTING. RICK SANTORUM DID GET A SECOND LOOK HIS FIRST FEW DAYS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. VOTERS CAME OUT TO HIS EVENTS, WANTED TO KNOW WHO HE WAS. HE DIDN'T HAVE AN EXTRA DIME TO SPEND ON TELEVISION ADS. THE ONLY PEOPLE ON TELEVISION WERE RON PAUL, JON HUNTSMAN AND MITT ROMNEY. SO IF YOU DIDN'T ALREADY KNOW THESE GUYS, THERE WAS NO WAY TO KNOW THEM. HE'S GOING ON FIND HIMSELF IN A WARMER BATH OF WATER IN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE THERE ARE MORE SOCIAL CONSERVATIVES. THAT WASN'T THE CASE HERE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, JUDY.

>> Woodruff: GWEN, YOU'VE COVERED A COUPLE OF THESE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARIES AT LEAST. HOW DOES IT FEEL DIFFERENT THIS YEAR, 2012? WHAT'S DIFFERENT.

>> Ifill: THIS ONE IS ACTUALLY REALLY A LOT LESS VIGOROUS THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN THE PAST. IN PART BECAUSE WE ONLY HAVE ONE PARTY IN A REAL COMPETITIVE SITUATION. WE DIDN'T HAVE THAT FOUR YEARS AGO. YOU REMEMBER BARACK OBAMA, WE THOUGHT THIS TIME FOUR YEARS AGO, HE WAS GOING TO WIN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY. HILLARY CLINTON CAME OUT OF NOWHERE. THERE WAS A LITTLE DRAMA. IT'S NOT AS DRAMATIC THIS TIME. THAT'S WHAT WE'RE GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT, WE'RE GOING TO FIND OUT WHY IN JUST A MOMENT.

>> Woodruff: GREAT. I KNOW YOU'VE GOT A GUEST YOU'RE GOING TO TALK TO THERE.

>> Ifill: THAT'S RIGHT. WE'RE JOINED BY ANDY SMITH WHO IS DIRECTOR OF THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE'S SURVEY CENTER. HE'S ALSO A PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE THERE. ANDY, TELL US WHAT YOU'RE HEARING SO FAR ABOUT WHO IS VOTING FOR WHOM AND WHY.

>> WELL, IT'S KIND OF HARD TO SAY. WE CAN WAIT FOR ANOTHER HOUR, HOUR-AND-A-HALF. WE'LL KNOW. WHAT I EXPECT TO SEE IS THAT MITT ROMNEY SHOULD DO PRETTY WELL. IN THE EARLY POLLING IN THE PRE-ELECTION POLLING HE WAS DOING REALLY WELL AMONG THE REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AS WELL AS THOSE UNDECLARED VOTERS WHO ARE REALLY REPUBLICANS. NOW THOSE UNDECLARED IS WHAT WE INFORMALLY CALL INDEPENDENTS HERE. BUT THOSE REGISTERED REPUBLICANS AND UNDECLAREDS REALLY REPUBLICANS MAKE UP 80% OF THE ELECTORATE. ROMNEY WAS GETTING 40-45% OF THOSE VOTE. HE'S DOING REALLY WELL THERE. FOR THE OTHER TOP CANDIDATES YOU MENTIONED RON PAUL. HE'S DOING GOOD AMONG THE INDEPENDENTS, UNDECLAREDS WHO ARE REALLY INDEPENDENT AS WELL AS SOME REPUBLICANS BUT HE HAS A FAIRLY SMALL POOL TO PLAY IN THERE. I THINK HE MAY BE CAPPED AT ABOUT 20 PERCENTAGE POINTS HERE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. AND THEN JON HUNTS MONTH WHAT YOU MENTIONED IS COMING ON PRETTY STRONG HERE. HE'S CAMPAIGNED A LOT. HIS BIGGEST PROBLEM IS THAT THE GROUPS HE'S DOING BEST AMONG ARE DEMOCRATS WHO ARE REGISTERED UNDECLARED BUT VOTING IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY. HE'S SOMEWHAT CAPPED IN THAT HE'S DOING WELL IN THE DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY BUT HE'S RUNNING IN THE REPUBLICAN PRIMARY.

>> Ifill: AS WE LOOK AT NEWT GINGRICH WHO HAS BEEN ON THE ATTACK A LITTLE BIT ON THE STUMP THIS WEEK AND AS WE LOOK AT RICK SANTORUM WHO HAS BEEN INTRODUCING HIMSELF A LOT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS THIS WEEK PERHAPS WITH THE HOPE OF GETTING THAT BROADCAST INTO SOUTH CAROLINA, DO THEY STAND A CHANCE HERE IN A LESS CULTURALLY CONSERVATIVE STATE LIKE NEW HAMPSHIRE?

>> NO, I THINK YOU MAKE A VERY GOOD POINT HERE. NEW HAMPSHIRE IS NOT A CULTURALLY CONSERVATIVE STATE. WE ARE THE LOWEST CHURCH ATTENDANCE IN THE COUNTRY, THE SECOND LOWEST LEVEL OF RELIGIOSITY. IF YOU LOOK AT 2008 EXIT POLLS ONLY 23% OF LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS IN 2008 WERE SELF-EYE IDENTIFIED EVANGELICALS COMPARED WITH 60% IN IOWA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. ANYBODY PUSHING A SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE MESSAGE WON'T DO VERY WELL HERE. WE'VE SEEN IN 2008, FOR EXAMPLE, MIKE HUCKABEE WINS IOWA BUT COMES HERE AND FINISHES A DISAPPOINTING THIRD PLACE WITH ONLY 11 PERCENT OF THE VOTE. I THINK THAT RICK SANTORUM MIGHT BE IN FOR A SIMILAR SITUATION. SIMILAR SURPRISE.

>> Ifill: JUDY JUST ASKED ME HOW THIS FELT DIFFERENT TO ME COVERING THIS ELECTION THIS PRIMARY. I'M WONDERING WHETHER IT FEELS DIFFERENT TO YOU. MY INSTINCT THAT IT FEELS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE IS CORRECT.

>> YEAH, IT'S PRETTY SLOW. I THINK IT STARTED FROM THE VERY BEGINNING AND FRANKLY STARTED FOUR YEARS AGO WHEN MITT ROMNEY LOST OR THREE YEARS AGO WHEN MITT ROMNEY LOST AND BECAME THE PROHIBITIVE FRONTRUNNER FOR THE 2012 REPUBLICAN NOMINATION. REPUBLICANS TYPICALLY PICK THE PERSON WHO FINISHES SECOND. HE'S FROM A NEIGHBORING STATE. HE'S BEEN KNOWN AS A MODERATE NORTH EASTERN REPUBLICAN WHICH FITS IN WITH THE REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE HERE. HE'S THE BEST KNOWN AND THE BEST-LIKED CANDIDATE FOR YEARS HERE. SINCE WE STARTED POLLING IN FEBRUARY OF 2009, ROMNEY HAS BEEN THE CLEAR FRONTRUNNER. THEN BETWEEN 25-35% IN THE POLLS. NOBODY ELSE ABOVE 10%. WHAT'S HAPPENED IS THAT THE OTHER CAMPAIGNS HAVE DECIDED TO TAKE THEIR LIMITED RESOURCES AND FIGHT IN IOWA AND PERHAPS IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THAT'S A CRITICAL THING THAT'S DIFFERENT IN THIS CAMPAIGN AS WELL. ROMNEY IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE WITH SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL RESOURCES. THE OTHER GUYS ARE RUNNING ON FUMES. AS YOU MENTIONED RICK SANTORUM COMES HERE WITH ESSENTIALLY A TIE IN IOWA BUT HAS NO MONEY TO GO ON TV HERE. THE OTHER CANDIDATES HAVE HAD A HARD TIME. ROMNEY DOESN'T NEED TO CAMPAIGN THAT MUCH. SO IT FELT VERY, VERY SLOW. WE HAVEN'T EXPERIENCED THE SAME KIND OF CAMPAIGN THAT WE'VE SEEN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES. I DON'T THINK THAT HAS MUCH TO DO WITH NEW HAMPSHIRE AS MUCH AS ROMNEY.

>> Ifill: ANDY, ONE FINAL BRIEF QUESTION WHICH IS TURNOUT. DO WE KNOW WHETHER PEOPLE SHOWED UP TO VOTE AND WHETHER THERE WAS ANY ENTHUSIASM AT THE BALLOT BOX TODAY.

>> WELL, I HAVEN'T HEARD ANY REAL REPORTS H REPORTS. I'VE HEARD SCATTERED REPORTS ACROSS THE STATE. SOME PEOPLE SAY TURN-OUT IS UP OTHERS SAY DOWN. THE WEATHER HAS BEEN LIKE NOVEMBER HERE RATHER THAN JANUARY. THERE'S NO REAL COMPLAINTS FROM THE WEATHER. ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE BEEN SEEING IN OUR PRE-ELECTION POLL S IS THAT REPUBLICANS ARE MORE EXCITED IN THIS RACE THAN THEY WERE ABOUT THE 2008 PRIMARY. BECAUSE I THINK THEY SEE THIS VOTE AS THEIR FIRST CHANCE TO VOTE AGAINST PRESIDENT OBAMA. WHETHER THAT WILL BE SHOWN AT THE BALLOT BOX REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

>> Ifill: ANDY SMITH THE UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE, THANKS SO MUCH. BACK TO YOU, JUDY.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Woodruff: STRANGE NOT TO SEE SNOW IN THE BACKGROUND, GWEN. SOME ANALYSIS NOW OF WHAT THESE RESULTS MAY SIGNAL FOR THE CAMPAIGN TO COME. HERE IS NEWSHOUR POLITICAL EDITOR CHRISTINA BELLANTONI AND STEWART ROTHENBERG OF THE ROTHENBERG POLITICAL REPORT. AND ROLL CALL. STU, WE HEARD A LITTLE CONVERSATION JUST THEN ABOUT HOW DIFFERENT IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE. BUT FLUSH THAT OUT FOR US. THE ELECTORATE IN IOWA, WE KNOW LESS SOCIALLY CONSERVATIVE. WHAT ARE THE OTHER DIFFERENCES?

>> IN TERMS OF SELF-I.D., IN TERMS OF IDEOLOGIST IN IOWA YOU HAD MOSTLY CONSERVATIVES. HERE YOU HAVE A SURPRISINGLY LARGE NUMBERS OF SELF-DESCRIBED MODERATES OR LIBERALS. IN 2008, 45% OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS I.D.ED AS MODERATE OR LIBERAL. THAT'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE. IT GOES TO THE WHOLE VIEW OF VIEW AND THE ROLE AND SIZE OF GOVERNMENT. WHAT STRUCK AS REALLY INTERESTING, I WAS LOOKING AT THESE EXIT NUMBERS, WHO WON LIBERALS AND MODERATES FOUR YEARS AGO? JOHN McCAIN OVERWHELMINGLY. WHO WON CONSERVATIVES? CONSERVATIVES FOUR YEARS AGO? MITT ROMNEY. NOW MITT ROMNEY IS IN THE POSITION OF KIND OF BEING THE McCAIN KIND OF CANDIDATE. HE'S BEING CRITICIZED AS A MODERATE LIBERAL. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHETHER HE INHERITS THOSE McCAIN VOTERS AND HOW MUCH ROMNEY VOTERS. ONE OR TWO OTHER DIFFERENCES. THERE ARE MORE INDEPENDENTS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT MORE AFFLUENT ELECTORATE.

>> Woodruff: THAN IOWA.

>> YEAH. IF YOU LOOK AT THE NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS WHO MADE $100,000 OR MORE IN IOWA, THIS YEAR IT WAS 28%. YOU LOOK AT THE NEW HAMPSHIRE EXIT POLLS FOUR YEARS AGO IT WAS 36%. SO AGAIN THAT'S PROBABLY OR THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD CONSTITUENCY FOR ROMNEY.

>> Woodruff: CHRISTINA, REMIND US HOW WELL ROMNEY DID. WE KNOW HE LOST TO JOHN McCAIN FOUR YEARS AGO. WHAT DID HE SHOW FOUR YEARS AGO?

>> HE CAME IN AT 31%. MOST COUNTIES HE CAME IN SECOND TO JOHN McCAIN WITH, YOU KNOW, BETWEEN 20, 25% OF THE VOTE. PRETTY MUCH EVEN HIS WORST COUNTY WAS 19% OF THE VOTE. THAT SIGNALS THESE ARE VOTERS THAT ARE VERY FAMILIAR WITH HIM. THEY SAW HIM BECAUSE HE GOVERNED IN NEARBY MASSACHUSETTS. THAT'S WHERE WE'RE REALLY LOOKING TONIGHT. PARTICULARLY, CAN HE DO VERY WELL IN THOSE AREAS WHERE HE PERFORMED NOT SO WELL IN LAST TIME? BUT THEY KNOW HIM. ONE THING THAT I NOTICED A LOT ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL THIS FALL OF SEEING HIM CAMPAIGN IN NEW HAMPSHIRE WAS THAT THEY WERE TELLING HIM HE'S A BETTER CANDIDATE THIS TIME AROUND. THEY'RE FAMILIAR WITH THEM. THEY OPENLY SAY, HEY, GOVERNOR, WE THINK YOU'VE IMPROVED AS A CANDIDATE. THAT'S ONE REASON WHY I THINK HE'S STANDING STRONG.

>> Woodruff: THOSE NUMBERS, ARE THE NUMBERS THAT HE HAD FOUR YEARS AGO GOING TO BE THE STANDARD BY WHICH HE'S MEASURED TONIGHT?

>> I THINK TURNOUT WILL BE PROBABLY BIGGER FOR THE REPUBLICAN SIDE. STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED. BUT PARTICULARLY, YOU KNOW, WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IN SOME OF THESE EARLY EXIT POLLS, YOU KNOW, JUST THAT THESE ARE VOTERS THAT ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE ECONOMY. YOU KNOW, 7 IN 10 VOTERS SAID THAT WAS ONE OF THE REASONS THAT DROVE THEM TO THE POLLS. THAT'S VERY DIFFERENT IN '08 WHERE IRAQ WAS A BIG DRIVER, ANTI-IMMIGRATION VOTERS WERE A BIG DRIVER. THESE ARE PEOPLE THAT ARE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE DEFICIT.

>> IF ROMNEY GOT 31-32 LAST TIME AND McCAIN GOT 38 YOU'D HAVE TO THINK SOMEWHERE IN THERE IS THE SWEET SPOT FOR MITT ROMNEY. TO EXCEED THAT, THAT WOULD SHOW HE REALLY WOULD HAVE EXPANDED SUPPORT. THAT WOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD RANGE FOR HIM I THINK TONIGHT.

>> Woodruff: I WAS TALKING WITH GWEN EARLIER ABOUT HUNTSMAN WHO HAS BEEN COMING UP, HAD A GOOD DEBATE PERFORMANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. IF HE WERE TO DO WELL TONIGHT, HOW WELL IS HE EQUIPPED TO GO ON AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE?

>> I DON'T THINK VERY WELL. I MEAN, HE HAS, TALK ABOUT PUTTING ALL YOUR EGGS IN ONE BASKET. THIS IS A TOTAL COMMITMENT FOR JON HUNTSMAN TO NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS IS THE WHOLE STRATEGY. IT'S NEW HAMPSHIRE OR BUST. I THINK IT'S INTERESTING. WE'LL PROBABLY AT THE END OF THE DAY SAY, BOY, JON HUNTSMAN DID A LOT BETTER THAN HE LOOKED LIKE HE WAS DOING TWO WEEKS AGO OR A MONTH AGO. BUT GIVEN HIS TOTAL COMMITMENT HERE, HE PASSED UP IOWA. HE DOESN'T HAVE A LOT OF STUFF DOWN THE ROAD. YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE TO THINK THAT HE HAS TO HAVE A STUNNING NUMBER HERE BECAUSE IF HE CAN'T, IT'S THE OLD NEW YORK NEW YORK STORY. IF YOU CAN'T DO WELL HERE, YOU CAN'T DO WELL ANYWHERE IF YOU'RE JON HUNTSMAN. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE, AS I MENTIONED, LIBERAL AND MODERATES, THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE THE PLACE WHERE HE WOULD DO WELL.

>> Woodruff: CHRISTINA, WHAT ELSE? OBVIOUSLY WE'LL BE WATCHING FOR THE NUMBERS ALL NIGHT BUT WHAT ELSE SHOULD WE BE LOOKING AT IN TONIGHT'S RESULTS?

>> A COUPLE THINGS. RON PAUL GOT 8% IN 2008. THE CROWDS THAT ARE COMING OUT TO SEE HIM, IT WAS INTERESTING WHAT GWEN WAS SAYING ABOUT THE VIGOR AND SORT OF THERE NOT BEING THAT MUCH ENERGY OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS BUT OVER THE LAST YEAR HE SPENT A LOT OF TIME IN NEW HAMPSHIRE. HE'S NOT JUST GETTING THE SORT OF STANDARD YOUNG PERSON OR LIBERTARIAN-LEANING VOTER. HE'S ALSO GETTING A LOT OF STRONG REPUBLICANS THAT ARE CURIOUS ABOUT HIM. THAT WILL BE LOOKING AT CERTAINLY IF HE CAN TURN THAT AROUND AND USE THE ORGANIZATION THAT HE HELPS BUILD IN IOWA, HE'LL USE THE SAME TOOLS TO DO BETTER TONIGHT.

>> Woodruff: HOW MUCH SHOULD WE LOOK AT, TO EITHER ONE OF YOU, HOW MANY DEMOCRATS TURN OUT TO VOTE? AND INDEPENDENTS? IN IOWA? I MEAN THIS IS SOMETHING THAT'S THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF CONVERSATION ABOUT IN THE LAST FEW FEWS.

>> YOU WON'T HAVE DEMOCRATS BUT INDEPENDENTS SO 37% IN 2008 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WERE INDEPENDENTS. THAT'S A BIG NUMBER. I THINK IN THE PAST YOU WOULD HAVE THOUGHT, WELL, MITT ROMNEY SHOULD APPEAL TO KIND OF SWING VOTERS, THE MORE MODERATE VOTERS. MAYBE HE'LL GET INDEPENDENTS. BUT HUNTSMAN IS CERTAINLY APPEALING TO INDEPENDENTS. YOU KNOW, INDEPENDENTS AS A GROUP ARE INCREDIBLY QUIRKY. THEY'RE A COMPLEX MIX. IT'S NOT JUST ONE KIND OF INDEPENDENT. SO I CAN IMAGINE RON PAUL GETTING SOME INDEPENDENT SUPPORT FROM PEOPLE WHO ARE NOT STRONG PARTISAN OTHERWISE. BUT THEY TRADITIONALLY HAVE BEEN A VERY IMPORTANT PART OF NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARIES.

>> Woodruff: I MENTIONED DEMOCRATS BECAUSE WE HEARD FROM ANDY SMITH THAT THERE ARE SEMOCRATS WHO ARE TURNING OUT FOR HUNTSMAN.

>> THAT WILL HAPPEN A LITTLE BIT. YOU'VE SEEN IN THE PIECE THAT WE HAD ON MONDAY NIGHT ABOUT THE VOTERS THAT ARE UNDECLARED VERY DISAPPOINTED WITH BARACK OBAMA, SORT OF, YOU KNOW, MAYBE TURNING TO THE REPUBLICANS FOR A DIFFERENT ANSWER. I THINK THAT'S WHERE YOU'RE SEEING THE OBAMA CAMPAIGN TRYING TO DO A LITTLE ORGANIZING TONIGHT EVEN THOUGH HE'S UNCONTESTED ON THE BALLOT. THEY HAVE JOE BIDEN SPEAKING AT HOUSE PARTIES AND MAKING SURE PEOPLE SHOW THEIR SUPPORT FOR HIM BECAUSE THIS IS A SWING STATE IN THE GENERAL ELECTION.

>> Woodruff: WE'LL BE TALKING TO YOU THE TWO OF YOU ALL NIGHT. THANK YOU BOTH.

>> THANKS, JUDY.

>> Ifill: STILL TO COME ON THE NEWSHOUR, SUPREME COURT ARGUMENTS OVER PROFANITY; TOUGH TALK FROM SYRIA'S LEADER; COMPENSATION FOR VICTIMS OF STERILIZATION; AND SHIELDS AND BROOKS. BUT FIRST, THE OTHER NEWS OF THE DAY. HERE'S HARI SREENIVASAN.

>> Sreenivasan: WALL STREET RALLIED TODAY, DUE IN PART TO AN UPBEAT REPORT FROM A CLOSELY WATCHED SOURCE, ALCOA. THE ALUMINUM COMPANY PROJECTED DEMAND FOR THE METAL WILL INCREASE IN 2012. THAT IS TAKEN AS A SIGN OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND IMPROVED EARNINGS FOR MORE SECTORS OF THE ECONOMY. THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE GAINED MORE THAN 69 POINTS TO CLOSE AT 12,462. THE NASDAQ ROSE NEARLY 26 POINTS TO CLOSE AT 2702. A BOMB TORE THROUGH A BUSY MARKET IN NORTHWEST PAKISTAN TODAY, KILLING AT LEAST 30 PEOPLE. THE BLAST HIT VEHICLES OF AN ANTI-TALIBAN MILITIA IN THE KHYBER REGION, NEAR THE AFGHAN BORDER. LOCAL OFFICIALS REPORTED MORE THAN 50 PEOPLE WERE WOUNDED. THERE WAS NO IMMEDIATE CLAIM OF RESPONSIBILITY. ACROSS THE BORDER, IN AFGHANISTAN, TALIBAN INSURGENTS STORMED A GOVERNMENT BUILDING IN THE EAST. TEN PEOPLE DIED IN THE FIREFIGHT THAT FOLLOWED. THE TARGET WAS THE GOVERNMENT TELECOMMUNICATIONS OFFICE IN SHARAN, THE PROVINCIAL CAPITAL OF PAKTIKA PROVINCE. THE REGION IS ONE OF THE MAIN ROUTES FOR TALIBAN FIGHTERS INFILTRATING FROM PAKISTAN. U.S. FORCES STAGED ANOTHER SEA RESCUE OF IRANIANS IN DISTRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TIME, A U.S. COAST GUARD CUTTER PLUCKED SIX CREWMEN FROM AN IRANIAN CARGO SHIP THAT WAS FOUNDERING IN THE PERSIAN GULF. THE CUTTER WAS PART OF A U.S. NAVAL TASK FORCE. LAST THURSDAY, A U.S. NAVY WARSHIP IN THE ARABIAN SEA RESCUED 13 IRANIAN FISHERMAN FROM SOMALI PIRATES. THE FIRST PHASE OF EGYPT'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WOUND TO A CLOSE TODAY. THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD AND OTHER ISLAMIST FACTIONS WERE EXPECTED TO TAKE 60% OF THE NEARLY 500 SEATS IN THE LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT. MEANWHILE, A LEADING SECULAR PARTY SAID IT WOULD BOYCOTT UPCOMING ELECTIONS FOR THE UPPER HOUSE. IT SAID IT WAS PROTESTING ALLEGED VOTING VIOLATIONS BY THE ISLAMIST GROUPS. THOSE ARE SOME OF THE DAY'S MAJOR STORIES. NOW, BACK TO JUDY.

>> Woodruff: THE HIGH COURT TAKES A LOOK AT FREE SPEECH AND TV INDECENCY. JEFFREY BROWN HAS THE STORY.

>> Brown: CHER, NICOLE RITCHIE, "SAVING PRIVATE RYAN," AND THE PBS DOCUMENTARY, "THE BLUES." WHAT DO THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON? WELL, THEY'VE BEEN ON BROADCAST TELEVISION, THEY'VE USED OR INCLUDED PROFANITY, AND THEY'RE ALL NOW PART OF A CONSTITUTIONAL DEBATE OVER FEDERAL REGULATION OF INDECENCY, IN A CASE ARGUED BEFORE THE SUPRREME COURT TODAY. MARCIA COYLE OF THE "NATIONAL LAW JOURNAL" WAS THERE, AND IS BACK WITH US TONIGHT.

>> THANKS, JEFF.

>> Brown: THIS IS ONE, AS OPPOSED TO SOME WE TALKED ABOUT, THIS IS ONE THAT EVERYBODY UNDERSTANDS QUICKLY.

>> ABSOLUTELY.

>> Brown: WHAT CAN BE ON TELEVISION? WHAT'S INDECENCY IN THE EYES OF THE F.C.C.?

>> THE FEDERAL COMMUNICATION COMMISSION DEFINES INDECENCY AS MATERIAL THAT DESCRIBES OR DEPICTS SEXUAL OR EX-DECREE ER TO ORGANS OR ACTIVITIES IN A PATENTLY OFFENSIVE MANNER AS JUDGED BY CONTEMPORARY COMMUNITY STANDARDS.

>> Brown: SOUNDS SO EASY.

>> IT DOES. IN FACT, THE FCC BROUGHT THE CASE TO THE SUPREME COURT TODAY BECAUSE A LOWER FEDERAL APPELLATE COURT FOUND THAT THE DEFINITION WAS SO VAGUE THAT IT VIOLATED THE DUE PROCESS AND FIRST AMENDMENT RIGHTS OF BROADCAST MEDIUM.

>> Brown: BRING US UP TO DATE. WHAT ARE THE FACTS OF THIS CASE? I MENTIONED SOME OF THESE PEOPLE: CHER, NICOLE RITCHIE.

>> YES, AND THEY ARE IN THIS CASE OR THE STATIONS ARE IN THIS CASE. THE LOWER FEDERAL APPELLATE COURT WAS RULING ON CHALLENGES BROUGHT BY FOX TELEVISION AND ABC. FOX WAS FOUND TO VIOLATE THE INDECENCY POLICY BECAUSE IT AIRED IN 2002 AND 2003 THE BILLBOARD MUSIC AWARDS IN THE 2002 SHOW CHER USED THE F-WORD. IN THE 2003 SHOW NICOLE RITCHIE USED THE F AND THE S- WORD. ABC WAS WAS THE CHALLENGE HERE BECAUSE IT FOUND THAT THE FCC FOUND THAT IT VIOLATED THE POLICY BECAUSE OF A 2003 EPISODE OF NYPD BLUE IN WHICH A NUDE WOMAN WAS SHOWN FROM THE REAR ENTERING A SHOWER.

>> Brown: THAT BRINGS US UP. THEN A LOWER COURT SAYS THESE ARE VAGUE. WHAT HAPPENED IN COURT TODAY? YOU HAD A LIVELY TIME TODAY.

>> IT WAS A LIVELY ARGUMENT. AND THE ISSUE BEFORE THE COURT IS EXACTLY WHAT CAME OUT OF THE LOWER FEDERAL APPELLATE COURT. THAT IS, IS THIS POLICY UNCONSTITUTIONALLY VAGUE? JUSTICE GINSBURG WENT RIGHT AT IT BY SAYING TO SOLICITOR GENERAL OF THE UNITED STATES DONALD VER ILL A....

>> Brown: WHO IS ARGUING ON BEHALF OF THE FCC. >>. RIGHT HE'S HE SAID THAT THE MAJOR OBJECTION HERE SEEMS TO BE THAT ONE CAN'T TELL WHAT IS INDECENT AND WHAT IS NOT. SHE SAID VULGAR WORDS AND SHOWING THE MOVIE SAVING PRIVATE RYAN IS OKAY BUT VULGAR WORDS USED BY BLUES' MUSICIANS IN A PBS DOCUMENTARY IS NOT. NUDITY SHOWN IN THE MOVIE SCHINDLER'S LIST IS OKAY BUT IT'S NOT OKAY IN THE NYPD EPISODE. SO MR. VERILLI MADE TWO ARGUMENTS HERE. HE SAID, ONE, THE POLICY IS NOT VAGUE BECAUSE, HE SAID, IT IS CONTEXT DRIVEN. AND WHEN THE FCC IS LOOKING AT EACH INSTANCE IN TERMS OF ITS OVERALL CONTEXT YOU'RE NEVER GOING TO HAVE PERFECT CLARITY. HIS SECOND KEY ARGUMENT WAS THAT THE BROADCAST MEDIUM-- AND WE'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT CABLE, JEFF. LET'S MAKE THIS CLEAR.

>> Brown: LET'S MAKE IT VERY CLEAR. JUST OVER-THE-AIR....

>> PUBLIC AIR, RIGHT AND NOT SATELLITE TV EAR. ... EITHER. HE SAID THE BROADCAST MEDIUM HAS BENEFITED FOR YEARS FROM FREE AND EXCLUSIVE USE OF THE PUBLIC AIR WAVES. AND IN RETURN FOR THAT, HE SAID, THE... IN RETURN FOR A GOVERNMENT LICENSE TO DO THAT, THEY HAVE AN ENFORCEABLE OBLIGATION TO CREATE A SAFE HAVEN FOR PARENTS WHO DO NOT WANT THEIR CHILDREN TO BE EXPOSED TO VULGAR LANGUAGE OR NUDITY.

>> Brown: THE ARGUMENT FOR THE BROADCASTERS.

>> THE BROADCASTERS, OF COURSE, FEEL THAT THIS POLICY IS VAGUE FOR THE VERY EXAMPLES JUSTICE GINSBERG AND IT'S INCONSISTENT THEY SAID. THEY'RE ARGUING FOR SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE HERE. THEY'RE SAYING THAT THE INDECENCY POLICY IS HOPELESSLY OUT OF DATE. THEY POINT TO THE FACT THAT BROADCAST MEDIUM IS NO LONGER, AS THE SUPREME COURT FOUND IN 1978 IN THE CASE INVOLVING GEORGE CARLIN'S FILTHY WORDS, THAT THE BROADCAST MEDIUM COULD BE REGULATED FOR INDECENCY BECAUSE IT WAS SO PERVASIVE FOR ALL AMERICANS AND SO UNIQUELY ACCESSIBLE TO CHILDREN. SO THE BROADCAST MEDIUM HERE IS TELLING THE COURT THIS IS OUT OF DATE. THERE'S CABLE. THERE'S SATELLITE. THE CHIEF JUSTICE....

>> Brown: AN EXPLOSION OF MEDIA WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE TO LIMIT THIS AND MAKE CLEAR IT'S JUST ABOUT BROADCAST.

>> RIGHT. CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS SAID IN A WAY THAT CUTS AGAINST THE BROADCAST MEDIUM'S ARGUMENTS BECAUSE IF THIS IS SO PERVASIVE, THERE'S SO MUCH MORE NOW, THEN MAYBE WE NEED A FEW CHANNELS THAT PROVIDE A SAFE HAVEN. THE JUSTICES ALSO WENT INTO QUESTIONS ABOUT V-CHIP TECHNOLOGY. JUSTICE KENNEDY SAID, "WELL, WHAT ABOUT V-CHIP?"

>> Brown: THAT ALLOWS PARENTS TO....

>> PARENTS TO BLOCK. MR. VERILLI FOR THE FCC SAID IT'S INADEQUATE TECHNOLOGY. IT WON'T HELP YOU ON LIVE TELEVISION. ALSO JUSTICE KENNEDY RAISED THE QUESTION OF WHETHER, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A SYMBOLIC VALUE TO AMERICAN SOCIETY TO HAVE A SEGMENT OF TELEVISION THAT ISN'T VULGAR. JUSTICE SCALIA WHO SHOWED HIS HAND ALMOST IMMEDIATELY SAID, "SIGN ME UP FOR JUSTIN KENNEDY'S SYMBOLISM."

>> Brown: IT'S INTERESTING. IT SOUNDS AS THOSE JUSTICES WATCH TELEVISION, RIGHT?

>> THEY DO.

>> Brown: THESE BLACK-ROBED... THEY GO HOME AND ACTUALLY WATCH TELEVISION. THEY KNEW WHAT THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT.

>> JUSTICE GINSBERG SAID, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THE LANGUAGE... THAT CHILDREN TODAY WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED BY THE LANGUAGE USED TODAY AS CHILDREN A GENERATION AGO WOULD BE.

>> Brown: BRIEFLY, I UNDERSTAND THAT JUSTICE SOTOMAYOR TOOK HERSELF OUT OF THE CASE, RECUSED HERSELF.

>> SHE DID.

>> Brown: THAT'S BECAUSE SHE WAS INVOLVED IN THE LOWER CASE?

>> RIGHT. SHE SAT ON THE LOWER FEDERAL APPELLATE COURT WHEN THIS BASE WAS MOVING THROUGH THAT COURT.

>> Brown: THAT MEANS THERE'S A POTENTIAL FOR THE TIE.

>> THERE ALWAYS IS WHEN THERE ARE ONLY EIGHT JUSTICES. I HAVE TO SAY THAT IT DID SEEM AS THOUGH THERE COULD BE A SPLIT DECISION HERE.

>> Brown: MARCIA COYLE, AS ALWAYS, THANKS SO MUCH.

>> MY PLEASURE.

>> Ifill: NOW, AN UPDATE ON THE TURMOIL IN SYRIA, AS THAT COUNTRY'S EMBATTLED PRESIDENT FIGHTS BACK. WE BEGIN WITH A REPORT FROM JOHN RAY OF INDEPENDENT TELEVISION NEWS IN CAIRO.

>> Reporter: 300 DAYS OF VIOLENCE AND COUNTING. A DEATH TOLL PASSING 5,000 AND MOUNTING. AND YET A CONFIDENT PRESIDENT PARADED BEFORE HIS NATION AND VOWED THAT VICTORY AT ANY PRICE IS CLOSE.

>> THIS WILL NOT BE POSSIBLE UNLESS WE HIT THE MURDEROUS TERRORISTS WITH AN IRON FIST. THERE WILL BE NO COMPROMISES. TERRORISM AND NO MERCY TO THOSE WHO USE WEAPONS TO CREATE DISCORD AND DIVISION.

>> Reporter: THE TURMOIL HE BLAMED ON FOREIGN CONSPIRACIES, DARK FORCES INCLUDING THE ARAB LEAGUE.

>> HAS THE LEAGUE SUCK SEETEDED TO BE INDEPENDENT? AS IT EVER SUCCEEDED TO REALIZE ANY OF THE PEOPLE'S DREAMS? OR HAS IT IN FACT CONTRIBUTED DIRECTLY TO SOWING THE SEEDS OF DISCORD AND DIVISION?

>> Reporter: AS HE SPOKE, THESE PICTURES EMERGED OF ASSAD'S SUPPORTERS MOBBING A CONVOY OF ARAB OBSERVERS. 11 WERE HURT. THE TIMING PERHAPS NO COINCIDENCE. IT WAS CONDEMNED BY ARAB LEADERS IN CAIRO. BUT THAT PEACE MISSION IS IN DEEP TROUBLE.

>> ASSAD'S WITHERING ATTACK ON THE ARAB LEAGUE EXPLOITING ITS DIVISIONS AND ITS INDECISIVENESS AIMS TO KILL OFF THEIR ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THIS CRISIS. AND OPPOSITION ACTIVISTS WHO ONCE HOPED THE WORLD WOULD COME TO THEIR RESCUE ARE LOSING HOPE.

>> THE ONLY WAY I THINK THAT... TO REALLY SOLVE THIS ISSUE WOULD BE SOME SORT OF INTERVENTION. WE DON'T EXPECT ANYONE WANTS TO INTERVENE. IT'S JUST TOO MESSY.

>> Reporter: WHILE THE WORLD REMAINS RELUCTANT TO ACT, THERE'S A PRESIDENT WHO BELIEVES HE'S WINNING.

>> Ifill: MARGARET WARNER TAKES THE STORY FROM THERE.

>> Warner: FOR MORE ON PRESIDENT ASSAD'S DEFIANT SPEECH AND HIS FIGHT TO MAINTAIN HIS REGIME WE TURN TO TWO MEN WHO HAVE MET AND DEALT WITH HIM. THEODORE KATUF WAS U.S. AMBASSADOR TO SYRIA FROM 2001 TO 2003 IN THE EARLY YEARS OF ASSAD'S RULE AND ANDREW CABLE NOW A FELLOW AT THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE LIVED IN SYRIA FOR MOST OF THE LAST DECADE AND COVERED ASSAD FOR AN ENGLISH LANGUAGE MAGAZINE HE FOUNDED THERE. WELCOME TO YOU BOTH. GENTLEMEN, LET ME BEGIN WITH YOU, THIS SPEECH WAS 100 MINUTES LONG. WAS IT AS DEFIANT LOOKED AS IN ITS ENTIRE TEE AS IT SOUNDS?

>> YES. IT CONTINUED THE PATTERN OF DEFIANT SPEECHES FROM PRESIDENT ASSAD. HE OUTRIGHT SAYS THAT YOU MUST BATTLE TERRORISM WHICH IS WHAT HE CALLED THE UPRISING IN SYRIA. IT MUST BE DEALT WITH WITH AN IRON FIST AND VICTORY IS NEAR. THIS IS VERY BOMBASTIC LANGUAGE AND SOMETHING IN A SPEECH THAT WE DID NOT EXPECT. WE EXPECTED SOME SORT OF CONCESSIONS FROM ASSAD. HE DIDN'T DELIVER.

>> Warner: WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF "VICTORY IS NEAR"? DO YOU THINK HE BELIEVES THAT? WHAT DOES THIS SAY ABOUT PSYCHOLOGY. YOU'VE MET AND DEALT WITH HIM.

>> HE MAY WELL BELIEVE IT ALTHOUGH HE HAS TO BE A BIT SHAKEN BY HOW LONG THIS HAS GONE ON GIVEN THE LEVEL OF BRUTALITY HIS PEOPLE HAVE USED AGAINST THE DEMONSTRATORS BUT HE GAINED A LOT OF CONFIDENCE OVER THE YEARS BECAUSE HE WAS CONVINCED THAT THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WAS GUNNING FOR HIS REGIME AFTER WE WENT INTO IRAQ. HE WAS, OF COURSE, ALLOWING INFILTRATION TO GO ON INTO IRAQ. YOU KNOW, WHEN GEORGE BUSH LEFT OFFICE, HE LOOKED AROUND AND HE SAID I'M STILL HERE. AND HE'S GONE. I MUST BE PRETTY SMART. HE BECAME REALLY QUITE FULL OF HIMSELF. HE WENT FROM BEING A FELLOW WHO WAS A BIT ON THE SELFY FACING SIDE TO BEING A FELLOW WHO WAS QUITE FULL OF HIMSELF.

>> Woodruff:.

>> Warner: HE HAD BEEN AN OPHTHALMOLOGIST IN LONDON. HE WASN'T SUPPOSED TO BE THE HARE. THEN HE'S THRUST INTO THIS JOB. HOW DOES THE MAN WE'RE SEEING COMPARED TO THE MAN YOU COVERED IN THE LAST DECADE WHICH WAS THE FIRST DECADE OF HIS RULE.

>> IT'S INTERESTING WHAT THE AMBASSADOR IS SAYING. IT FOLLOWS A PATTERN AS WELL. ASSAD ON THE SURFACE SEEMS LIKE AN AFTER FABL PERSON, SPEAKS VERY GOOD ENGLISH, MUCH DIFFERENT THAN HIS FATHER. HE SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE. THE PROBLEM IS WHEN YOU LEAVE THE ROOM FROM PRESIDENT ASSAD, THE THINGS THAT HE PROMISED TO DO, EITHER IT DOESN'T HAPPEN OR HE DOES COMPLETELY THE OPPOSITE. THIS GIVES HIM A SORT OF MAD CHARACTER THAT REALLY NOT ONLY CON CON FOUNDS HIS OWN PEOPLE BUT CONFOUNDED WESTERN DIPLOMACY WITH HIM EXTENSIVELY AND MADE HIM VERY, VERY DIFFERENT FROM HIS FATHER WHO WAS ABLE TO PLAYOFF ALL SIDES AGAINST EACH OTHER AND MAINTAIN ORDER IN THE COUNTRY.

>> Warner: AND WOULD DELIVER WHEN HE MADE....

>> CORRECT. VERY DIFFERENT.

>> Warner: WHAT ABOUT HIS FAMILY? MR. AMBASSADOR, ONE, WHO DOES HE TALK TO? WHO IS HE SURROUNDED WITH AND WHAT IS THEIR MIND SET?

>> WELL, WE CAN'T BE 100% SURE. BUT I KNOW FOR A FACT THAT HE HAS CONVENED EVEN YEARS AGO LARGE FAMILY GATHERINGS IN WHICH THE FAMILY BUSINESS, AS WE SAY, WOULD BE DISCUSSED. THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS THAT HIS MOTHER, OF ALL PEOPLE WHO, YOU KNOW, THE WIDOW, HAS TOLD HIM, YOU KNOW, THAT HE HAS TO STAY STRONG. HE HAS TO PROTECT THE FAMILY. THE COMMUNITY, MEANING THE REGIME AND HIS FATHER'S LEGACY. NEVER UNDERRATE THE IMPORTANCE OF ARAB MOTHERS WITH THEIR SONS. (LAUGHING) SNRG BUT WHEN HE CAME IN, PEOPLE THOUGHT HE WAS REFORMED-MINDED. HE HAD LIVED IN THE WEST AND LIVED IN LONDON. WHAT HAPPENED? OR DID PEOPLE JUST READ INTO HIM, WESTERNERS READ INTO HIM WHAT THEY WANTED TO READ?

>> I THINK IT'S A LITTLE... I THINK TO SOME EXTENT HE MIGHT HAVE THOUGHT I CAN MAKE SOME COSMETIC REFORMS. I CAN LIGHTEN THE IMAGE OF THE REGIME. I CAN OPEN THINGS UP A BIT. BUT VERY MUCH LIKE IN THE GODFATHER WHERE MICHAEL CORILONI MAY HAVE IN THE BEGINNING SOME IDEA THAT HE CAN TAKE THE FAMILY IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION, TAKE THEM OUT TO LAS VEGAS, START LEGITIMATE BUSINESSES, HE FOUND OUT THAT THE SYSTEM ONLY OPERATES ONE WAY: WITH A STRONG, RUTHLESS S.O.B. AT THE TOP. AND THAT WOULD BE HIM.

>> Warner: ANDREW, WHERE DOES THIS LEAVE THE ARAB LEAGUE MISSION? AS WE HEARD HE TOTALLY TRASHED THE ARAB LEAGUE IN HIS SPEECH.

>> YEAH. WHAT'S VERY INTERESTING IS THAT THEY BASICALLY CALLED IT NON-OBJECTIVE. HE REFERRED TO SOME ARAB COUNTRIES WHICH HE MEANS KAY TAR. NO WAY THAT THE REPORT....

>> Warner: THIS IS THE OBSERVER MISSION, SEEING IF HE WAS LIVING UP TO THE DEAL.

>> HE WASN'T LIVING UP TO THE DEAL. HE'S NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO LIVE UP TO THE DEAL. MOST IMPORTANTLY WHAT THIS IS GOING TO DO THEN IS THAT THIS IS GOING TO THROW THINGS PERHAPS OUT OF THE ARAB LEAGUE AND INTO THE SECURITY COUNCIL. THE QUESTION WILL BE, WHAT WILL A NEGATIVE REPORT ON SYRIA NOT COMPLYING DO WITH THE RUSSIAN VETO ON THE SECURITY COUNCIL IN TERMS OF BLOCKING A WESTERN-LED RESOLUTION THERE TO HELP TRY AND END THE FIGHTING.

>> Warner: HOW CLEAR IS IT THAT THE ARAB LEAGUE REPORT WILL BE NEGATIVE BECAUSE SOME OF THE STATEMENTS THAT HAVE COME OUT FROM THEM AS THEY'VE CONTINUED THIS MISSION HAVE, IT SEEMS TO STRIKE, YOU KNOW, CRITICIZE BOTH SIDES AND SO FORTH?

>> I THINK AFTER TODAY'S SPEECH, A VERY GOOD PROBABILITY IT WILL BE A VERY TOUGH REPORT. HE STOOD UP THERE BEFORE THE WORLD AND INSULTED THE SAUDI LEADERS, ALL THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL LEADERS, BASIC AD... BASICALLY SAID THEY DON'T HAVE AUTHENTIC CULTURE. THEY'RE NOT REALLY ARABS. WITHOUT US THERE IS NO ARAB LEAGUE. THERE'S A FOREIGN LEAGUE. THEY'RE PART OF A MASS CONSPIRACY. YOU KNOW, HE'S DONE JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING HE CAN THINK OF TO ENSURE THAT HE'S TURNED THESE PEOPLE AGAINST HIM AND ALSO RAISES THE QUESTION THAT IF HE WANTS TO GO IN EXILE, WOULD WILL TAKE HIM?

>> Warner: SO HE SEEMS SO CONFIDENT, AS HE SAID, ANDREW, THAT THE IRON FIST IS GOING TO PREVAIL HERE. BY THAT HE MUST MEAN HIS OWN MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE SERVICES, RIGHT?

>> CORRECT.

>> Warner: DOES HE STILL HAVE PRETTY MUCH UNQUESTIONED LOYALTY FROM THEM?

>> WELL, NO. YOU'VE HAD A LOT OF DEFECTIONS.

>> Warner: SOME DEFECTIONS IN THE MILITARY.

>> BY AND LARGE HE STILL COMMANDS THE AUTHORITY OF THE MILITARY. UNDER THE CONSTITUTION HE DIRECTS THEM. BY AND LARGE I THINK HE BELIEVES THAT BUT THE PROBLEM THAT ASSAD HAS IS THAT THIS, YOU KNOW, FOR THIS TO GO ON AS THE AMBASSADOR SAID FOR TEN MONTHS IS... IT IS JUST SO TROUBLING TO THE REGIME AT ITS CORE. BASICALLY ALSO TO SAY THAT THE IRON FIST....

>> Warner: WHAT DO YOU MEAN TROUBLE TO GO THE REGIME?

>> THEY'VE HAD A VERY HIGH BAR FOR ORDER IN SYRIA. MORE THAN THREE PEOPLE GATHERING ON THE STREET WAS ILLEGAL AND CAN BE BROKEN UP. NOW TENS OF THOUSANDS AND HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE SOMETIMES PROTESTING. HE'S IN A REAL DILEMMA. THE QUESTION IS WHY IS IT THAT HE KEEPS ON ADVOCATING THE IRON FIST WITH SUPERFICIAL REFORMS AND THINKING THAT THAT'S GOING TO GET HIM OUT OF SOMETHING? HE'S BEEN DOING THAT FOR TEN MONTHS. IT HASN'T WORKED. WHY DOES HE CONTINUE TO THINK IT'S GOING TO WORK NOW? THAT'S THE QUESTION.

>> Warner: SO VERY BRIEFLY THEN, TODAY HE DIDN'T SAY, WELL WE'RE GOING TO HAVE A NEW CONSTITUTION AND A REFERENDUM THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MARCH. IS THAT JUST WINDOW DRESSING OR IS THERE A PROSPECT HE MIGHT TAKE SOME STEPS THAT WOULD ACTUALLY....

>> IT'S WINDOW DRESSING. THIS MAN HAS NOT KILLED PEOPLE FOR THE LAST TEN MONTHS TO PEACEFULLY TRANSFER POWER TO THE OPPOSITION. IT'S TOTALLY WINDOW DRESSING. AND THE YOUNG MAN WHO WAS ON YOUR SET-UP FOR THIS INTERVIEW SAID HE REALLY DIDN'T SEE HOW THE OPPOSITION COULD WIN WITHOUT FOREIGN INTERVENTION. AND SORRY TO SAY, I'M NOT SURE I SEE HOW THE OPPOSITION CAN WIN. I CAN SEE THE COUNTRY DESCENDING INTO CHAOS AND CIVIL WAR.

>> Warner: WHICH IS THE ULTIMATE NIGHTMARE. THANK YOU BOTH.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Woodruff: NEXT, NORTH CAROLINA MOVES TOWARD COMPENSATING VICTIMS OF A STERILIZATION PROGRAM THAT LASTED MORE THAN FOUR DECADES. RAY SUAREZ HAS THE STORY.

>> Suarez: NORTH CAROLINA WAS BY NO MEANS THE ONLY STATE TO HAVE PEOPLE STERILIZED AGAINST THEIR WILL. BUT IT WAS AMONG THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PURSUING THE POLICY. ROUGHLY 7,600 PEOPLE WERE STERILIZED BETWEEN 1929 AND 1974, MANY OF THEM POOR, SICK, UNEDUCATED, OR INSTITUTIONALIZED, SOMETIMES THROUGH FORCE AND COERCION. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PROCEDURES TOOK PLACE IN THE YEARS AFTER WORLD WAR II, WHEN OTHER STATES PULLED BACK FROM SUCH PROGRAMS. THE STATE APOLOGIZED FOR THE OFFENSES IN 2002. TODAY A TASK FORCE VOTED TO PAY THE REMAINING LIVING VICTIMS $50,000 APIECE. WE LOOK AT THE HISTORY AND TODAY'S DECISION WITH ONE OF THE PRINCIPAL ACTIVISTS WORKING WITH THE STATE'S TASK FORCE. CHARMAINE FULLER-COOPER IS THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF A STATE FOUNDATION FOR VICTIMS OF STERILIZATION.

>> NORTH CAROLINA FIRST BECAME INVOLVED IN THE WHOLE STERILIZATION PROCEDURE AT THE HEIGHT OF EUGENICS IN AMERICA, AT THE HEIGHT OF EUGENICS WE HAD A APPROXIMATELY OVER 30 STATES THAT HAD STERILIZATION PROGRAMS WITH INDIANA BEING THE FIRST STATE. IRONICALLY NORTH CAROLINA ACTUALLY DIDN'T STERILIZE AS MANY PEOPLE IN THE EARLY YEARS LIKE OTHER STATES BUT AFTER WORLD WAR II NORTH CAROLINA BECAME VERY AGGRESSIVE.

>> Suarez: BUT AFTER WORLD WAR II EUGENICS, THAT IS, KEEPING PEOPLE WHO ARE JUDGED TO BE INFERIOR FROM HAVING CHILDREN WAS THOROUGHLY DISCREDITED. HOW COME NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUED WITH THE PROGRAM FOR ALMOST 30 YEARS?

>> YOU KNOW, IT'S VERY UNEXPLAINABLE IN NORTH CAROLINA WHY OUR PROGRAM CONTINUED FOR ANOTHER 30 YEARS AFTER OTHER STATES HAD PRETTY MUCH DISMANTLED THEIR PROGRAMS. IT'S VERY HORRIFYING AND VERY SHOCKING. THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WHY NORTH CAROLINA'S GOVERNOR AND OTHER PEOPLE IN THE STATE ARE REALLY WORKING TO GAIN JUSTICE FOR VICTIMS NOW.

>> Suarez: OVER THE YEARS A LOT OF STATE EMPLOYEES, MOST NOTABLY SOCIAL WORKERS JUDGE PEOPLE TO BE FEEBLE MINDED, EPILEPTIC, MENTALLY DISEASED. WERE THESE PROFESSIONALLY QUALIFIED JUDGMENTS? WERE THESE PEOPLE WHO WERE TESTED AND SCREENED? OR JUST ON THE SAY-SO OF A SOCIAL WORKER MADE UNABLE TO HAVE CHILDREN?

>> MANY PEOPLE WERE STERILIZED BASED ON THE STATEMENT OF A SOCIAL WORKERS. ALSO MANY PEOPLE WERE GIVEN I.Q.TESTS BUT WE HAVE TO REMEMBER THAT THESE I.Q.TESTS WERE GIVEN IN NORTH CAROLINA AROUND THE TIME THAT YOU HAD LITERACY TESTS BEING DECLARED UNCONSTITUTIONAL THROUGHOUT THE SOUTH.

>> Suarez: YOU GOT TO KNOW MANY OF THE VICTIMS OVER THE YEARS. BEYOND THE MEDICAL FACT OF NOT BEING ABLE TO BE PARENTS, WHAT'S THE EFFECT BEEN ON THEIR LIVES?

>> YOU KNOW, A LOT OF THE VICTIMS ARE DEVASTATED. MANY OF THEM HAVE HAD TO HEAL IN THEIR OWN WAYS. BUT NO VICTIM IS THE SAME. MANY VICTIMS HAVE DIFFERENT STORIES TO TELL. WE HAVE A LOT OF DIVERSITY IN NORTH CAROLINA BUT THE COMMON THREAD IS MANY OF THEM WERE TARGETED BECAUSE OF POVERTY.

>> Suarez: WELL, THE SURVIVORS TODAY, THE CLASS THAT IS GOING TO BE COMPENSATED IN THIS WAY, WHAT'S THEIR AGE RANGE AND WHAT WAS THE RANGE OF THEIR AGES WHEN THEY WERE STERILIZED?

>> THE AGE RANGE OF VICTIMS TODAY, THE YOUNGEST VICTIM WOULD BE 50 YEARS OF AGE. THE YOUNGEST VICTIM WHO WAS STERILIZED WITHIN NORTH CAROLINA WAS TEN YEARS OLD AT THE TIME OF THE STERILIZATION.

>> Suarez: TEN YEARS OLD. CAN YOU TELL US THE STORY THAT'S INVOLVED THERE.

>> NO, I DON'T HAVE HIS SPECIFIC STORY. BUT THE STORIES THROUGHOUT NORTH CAROLINA RANGE FROM PEOPLE WHO THOUGHT THEY HAD THEIR APEN DICTION REMOVED AND THEY FOUND OUT LATER IN LIFE THAT THEY WERE ACTUALLY STERILIZED. WE ALSO HAVE INDIVIDUALS WHO THEY HAD CHILDREN AS A RESULT OF INCEST OR RAPE AND IMMEDIATELY AFTER THEY HAD THEIR FIRST CHILD THEY WERE RAPED. WE HAD A LOT OF INDIVIDUAL WHO WERE STERILIZED AS A CONDITION OF BEING RELEASED FROM A STATE INSTITUTION.

>> Suarez: IN SOME CASES AS A CONDITION SO THEY KNEW WHAT WAS HAPPENING TO THEM. BUT FOR SOME, AS YOU MENTIONED, TOLD THEY WERE HAVING THEIR APPENDIX OUT, THEY DIDN'T KNOW THEY WERE UNABLE TO BEAR CHILDREN UNTIL MANY YEARS LATER.

>> THAT IS TRUE. EVEN MANY OF THE PEOPLE IN STATE INSTITUTIONS DIDN'T REALLY REALIZE THE CONDITIONS. SOME WERE TOLD THAT THEY HAD TO HAVE A SMALL PROCEDURE BEFORE THEY CAN COME HOME. FOR SOME OF THEM THEY FOUND OUT LATER IN LIFE BOTH MEN AND WOMEN THAT THAT SMALL PROCEDURE RESULTED IN A LONG- TERM CONSEQUENCE OF THEM NEVER BEING ABLE TO BEAR CHILDREN.

>> Suarez: IN THIS MULTI-YEAR PROCESS HOW DID YOU FINALLY ARRIVE AT THE AMOUNT OF $50,000? AND DO THE VICTIMS THINK IT'S ENOUGH?

>> THE TASK FORCE HAS HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TIME WITH TRYING TO COME DOWN TO A FIGURE. THEY WANTED TO MAKE SURE THAT THE PUBLIC KNEW THAT NO AMOUNT OF MONEY WOULD EVER COMPENSATE A PERSON FOR THEIR INABILITY TO HAVE ANYMORE CHILDREN IN THE FUTURE. BUT THEY WANT TO MAKE A HUGE STATEMENT BOTH TO NORTH CAROLINA AND TO THE WORLD THAT THESE STERILIZATIONS WERE AWFUL AND SHOULD NEVER BE CONDUCTED AGAIN. THEY BEGAN LOOKING AT THE FIGURE OF $20,000. SOME OF THAT FIGURE WAS LOOKING AT WHAT HAPPENED AFTER JAPANESE ENTERMENT VICTIMS WERE COMPENSATED MANY MANY YEARS AGO AND A $20,000 AWARD WAS GIVEN. BUT ULTIMATELY TODAY MANY OF THE TASK FORCE MEMBERS VOTED AS A MAJORITY TO RECOMMEND $50,000 FOR ALL OF THE LIVING VICTIMS OF NORTH CAROLINA'S STERILIZATION PROGRAM.

>> Suarez: SOME OF THOSE PEOPLE HAD TRIED TO SUE NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE YEARS AND WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL. IS THIS MEANT TO BE THE END OF IT? OR IF SOMEONE FIGURES 50 GRAND IS SIMPLY NOT ENOUGH FOR THEM AND THEY WANT TO CONTINUE, CAN THEY?

>> YOU KNOW, THAT WOULD BE A QUESTION FOR A LOT OF THE LEGAL EXPERTS THROUGHOUT THE NATION. TWO VICTIMS DID SUE THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA IN THE EARLY 1970s WHEN A LOT OF HUMAN EXPERIMENTATION WAS COMING TO LIGHT SUCH AS THE TUSKEGEE EXPERIMENTATION AND ALABAMA. BUT THAT'S REALLY A QUESTION FOR THE LEGAL EXPERTS BUT THE HOPE IN NORTH CAROLINA IS THAT COMPENSATION WILL HELP TO PROVIDE SOME CLOSURE. WE UNDERSTAND THAT FOR MANY VICTIMS THERE'S NOTHING THAT WILL EVER COMPLETELY HEAL THEM. THEY WILL NEED A SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THEIR LIVES. BUT THE STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA FEELS THAT COMPENSATION WILL GO BEYOND JUST A VERBAL APOLOGY.

>> Suarez: BEYOND THE APOLOGY AND BEYOND THE PAYMENT, HAS THIS CASE REOPENED A CONVERSATION IN NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT THE CONDITIONS THAT ALLOWED THIS KIND OF THING TO HAPPEN?

>> YOU KNOW, THAT HAS BEEN PART OF THE CONVERSATION, BUT IT CERTAINLY AT THE BEGINNING STAGES TO LOOKING AT HOW DID THIS HAPPEN IN THE FIRST PLACE? WHAT HAPPENED WITH EUGENICS? THIS ALSO OCCURRED DURING THE TIME WHEN THE GREAT DEPRESSION HAD JUST ENDED AND THE UNITED STATES AND A LOT OF PEOPLE NEVER RECOVERED AFTER THE GREAT DEPRESSION BUT FOR MANY STATES EUGENICS WAS THE SOLUTION FOR POVERTY. UNFORTUNATELY NORTH CAROLINA WANTS TO MAKE SURE THAT PEOPLE RECOGNIZE THAT THIS IS NOT OKAY.

>> Suarez: CHARMAINE, FULLER- KEER, THANKS FOR JOINING US.

>> Ifill: FINALLY TONIGHT, WE COME BACK TO THE CAMPAIGN FOR SOME THOUGHTS FROM NEWSHOUR REGULARS MARK SHIELDS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND DAVID BROOKS. MARK, WHAT DO YOU THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN?

>> I THINK MITT ROMNEY IS GOING TO MAKE HISTORY TONIGHT BY BECOMING THE FIRST NON-INCUMBENT REPUBLICAN IN MODERN HISTORY TO WIN BACK-TO- BACK IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.

>> Ifill: DAVID, DO YOUR EXPECTATIONS MATCH MARK'S?

>> THAT WOULD PRETTY MUCH END THE RACE IF YOU GOT THOSE TWO ESPECIALLY IF HE FOLLOWS IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THE MINDS OF THE GREAT MENTIONERS HAVE DECIDED IF HE GETS AROUND 40% HE'S THE CRIMSON TIDE, ROLLING ON TO VICTORY. IF HE'S DOWN TO 30, WE ALL THINK HE'S A LITTLE WEAKER. IN THE 20s WE ALL THINK HE'S JUST THIS LIMPING GIANT. THAT'S NOT ONLY A MATTER OF US PINNED ITS. I THINK IT DOES MATTER TO THE MILLIONAIRES OUT THERE WHO ARE THINKING ABOUT FUNDING THE SUPER PAC. ON BEHALF OF HUNTSMAN OR GINGRICH OR SANTORUM OR WHOEVER. IF THEY SEE HIM AS VULNERABLE THE 20s AND THE 30s OR LOW 30s, THEN THEY THINK, WELL, THIS ATTACK ON BANE CAPITAL PROBABLY WORKS AND I MAY WANT TO POUR A LITTLE MORE MONEY IN THERE. SO THE PERCEPTION GAME UP AROUND 40, DOWN AROUND 28 TO 30, IT ACTUALLY COULD HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE RACE GOING FORWARD.

>> Ifill: MARK, LET'S TALK THAT BANE CAPITAL ATTACK. HE HASN'T HAD THE BEST FINAL 24 HOURS OF THIS CAMPAIGN, MITT ROMNEY, AS EVERYBODY BEGAN TO JUMP ON HIM FOR HIS PAST BUSINESS BACKGROUND. FOUR YEARS AGO HE LOST TO McCAIN AND THEN HE WON 32% OF THE VOTE. PRESUMABLY HE HAS GOT TO DO BETTER THAN THAT AS THE LEADER TONIGHT. BUT A LOT OF PEOPLE HAVE BEEN TAKING AFTER HIM.

>> I AGREE. LISTEN, I THINK IF MITT ROM NEEP WINS BY DOUBLE FIGURES OR SOMEWHERE IN THERE, HE'S WON. I MEAN, WINNING IS COMING IN FIRST TO STATE THE OBVIOUS JUST ONCE AGAIN. BUT THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT WE ARE SEEING A NEW DEVELOPMENT IN AMERICAN POLITICS THIS YEAR. IN LARGE PART BECAUSE OF THE SUPREME COURT. I JUST WISH ONE OF THOSE JUSTICES HAD NEVER RUN FOR SHERIFF. THEIR DECISION ON THE CITIZENS UNITED CAMPAIGN, THE DECISION, AND THEN OTHER COURT DECISIONS AS WELL AS PRESIDENT OBAMA'S DECISION IN 2008 TO PRIVATELY FINANCE HIS CAMPAIGN. MONEY IS KING LIKE IT'S NEVER BEEN BEFORE IN AMERICAN POLITICS. THIS MAKES WATERGATE LOOK LIKE CHUMP CHANGE QUITE HONESTLY IN TERMS OF MONEY. I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT EVIL DOING OR BREAKING THE LAW. I'M TALKING ABOUT MONEY AND IN MANY CASES UNREPORTED MONEY. THE SUPER PACs ARE NOW THE POLITICAL STORY. DAVID PUT HIS FINGER ON IT. THE QUESTION IS, IS IT GOING TO BE FOR $3.5 MILLION SPENT BY A SUPER PAC OF MITT ROMNEY'S, HIS SUPPORTERS, TO ABSOLUTELY DESTROY NEWT GINGRICH IN IOWA AND NOW NEWT GINGRICH COMING BACK TO DO THE SAME WITH MONEY, A MOGUL FROM LAS VEGAS AND A LONG-TIME SUPPORTER OF NEWT GINGRICH'S, $5 MILLION TO DO THAT. IN SOUTH CAROLINA. THAT'S THE REAL POLITICAL STORY COMING OUT OF HERE IN 2012.

>> Ifill: DAVID, WE HAVE ALREADY... WE ARE PRIVY TO SOME OF THE FIRST WAVES OF INTERVIEWS THAT SOME OF THE NETWORKS DID TONIGHT WITH 1700 VOTERS AT THE POLLS TODAY WE'RE NOT GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE NUMBERS WHO IS AHEAD OR BEHIND BECAUSE IT'S STILL EARLY YET AND THE POLLS HAVEN'T CLOSED. WHO ARE THE PEOPLE GOING TO THE POLLS AND WHAT ARE THEIR CONCERNS?

>> THE INDEPENDENTS ARE SHOWING UP IN DECENT PROPORTION. YOU'D EXPECT THAT. LAST TIME THE INDEPENDENTS, YOU COULD VOTE EM DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN NOW. THEY'RE PROBABLY SWINGING OVER TO THE REPUBLICANS. THAT WOULD SEEM THE FAVOR THE HUNTSMAN AND THE ROMNEY. STU MENTIONED EARLIER YOU HAVE THIS PHENOMENON WHERE ROMNEY WAS THE CONSERVATIVE LAST TIME. NOW HE'S THE FAVORITE OF THE MODERATES. I THINK THAT'S A SYMBOL OF HOW THE WHOLE PARTY HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT. SO THE POSITIONS HE TOOK WHICH WERE THEN QUALIFIED HIM AS THE CONSERVATIVE GUY NOW QUALIFY HIM AS THE MODERATE. I DO THIS BANE ISSUE IS THE ONLY THING THAT COULD SCRAMBLE ALL THIS. BECAUSE THE BANE ATTACK ON THESE... ON WALL STREET SHENANIGANS OR WHAT IS SEEN AS EXORBITANT PROFITS ON DESTROYING PEOPLE'S JOBS THAT'S SOMETHING THAT DOESN'T HIT LEFT, RIGHT, CENTER, MODERATE OR CONSERVATIVE. THAT COULD SCRAMBLE THE WHOLE RACE. ROMNEY HAS BASED HIS IDEA ON THIS EXPERIENCE AT BANE QUALIFIES HIM TO BE PRESIDENT. I THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD DISCUSSION ON WHETHER THAND KIND OF EXPERIENCE DOES QUALIFY YOU TO BE PRESIDENT. DID IT QUALIFY JON CORZINE TO BE A GOOD GOVERNOR OF NEW JERSEY WHO WORKED AT GOLDMAN SACHS? NOT NECESSARILY. IS ALL CAPITALISM EQUALLY RIGHT? I DOUBT IT WILL HURT NIM IN THE POLLS TONIGHT BUT IT'S BEGUN A GOOD DEBATE WHERE ROMNEY HAS TO EXPLAIN WHAT EXACTLY HE DID AT BANE AND WHY EXACT LAE A THAT QUALIFIES HIM TO BE PRESIDENT.

>> Ifill: MARK, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE NEXT HERE. ASSUMING YOU'RE RIGHT AND MITT ROMNEY CANNOT BE CAUGHT UP TO TONIGHT-- WE'VE SEEN SURPRISES BEFORE, BUT ASSUME THAT FOR THE MOMENT. WHAT ABOUT THE NEXT? IS JON HUNTSMAN GOING TO LIVE ANOTHER DAY IF HE COMES IN NUMBER TWO OR DOES HE HAVE TO PULL OUT AS NUMBER 3.

>> I DON'T KNOW WHERE HE GOES FROM HERE, GWEN. HE'S INVESTED ALL HIS TIME, EFFORT, ENERGY AND RESOURCES IN ONE STATE. TO CLAIM THAT A THIRD-PLACE FINISH QUALIFIES HIM AS THE SILVER MEDAL BEHIND RON PAUL IF THAT'S THE CASE AND MITT ROMNEY, I DON'T THINK THAT'S A COMPELLING CASE TO GO FORWARD ESPECIALLY WHEN ALL YOUR RESOURCES HAVE BEEN TIED UP HERE. JUST ONE POINT, GWEN, ON THE POINT THAT DAVID RAISED. GOING AFTER MITT ROMNEY ON BANE IS REALLY QUITE COMPARABLE TO GOING AFTER JOHN KERRY AS THE BUSH CAMPAIGN DID IN 2004 ON HIS MILITARY VALOR RECORD. IN OTHER WORDS, YOU'RE GOING AFTER YOUR OPPONENT ON THE STRONGEST POSSIBLE ARGUMENT THAT HE HAS FOR HIS OWN ELECTION. THAT HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MITT ROMNEY. HE'S BEEN A BUSINESSMAN. YOU SABOTAGE THAT OR AT LEAST RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT IT AND WHAT KIND OF A BUSINESSMAN HE WAS AND I THINK IT IS GOING TO BE PART OF THE DEBATE AND ESPECIALLY WHEN IT'S BEING RAISED BY REPUBLICANS, IT HAS TO BE NOTHING BUT GOOD NEWS FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA'S CAMPAIGN THAT THEY'RE NOT RAISING IT FOR THE FIRST TIME, THAT IT'S ACTUALLY REPUBLICANS DOING IT.

>> Ifill: SO, DAVID, LET'S ASSUME IT'S 1-2-3 SOMEHOW WITH THOSE THREE. THAT'S TO SAY ROMNEY, HUNTSMAN AND PAUL. IT'S GO TO THE NEXT TIER. NEWT GINGRICH AND RICK SANTORUM RAN PRETTY VIGOROUS CAMPAIGNS HERE BUT NEITHER OF THEM HAD A DIME TO SPEND ON TELEVISION. ARE THEY JUST LOOKING FORWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA ONHOPING THEY GET OUT OF HERE WITHOUT EMBARRASSING THEMSELVES NIZ?

>> THEY'RE ALL PRAYING TO BE THE ONE PERSON LEFT TO BE THE ONE ANTI-ROMNEY. THEY'RE ALL PRAYING ALL THE OTHER ANTI-ROMNEYS DROP OUT AND IT BECOMES A ONE-ON-ONE RACE. THE PROBLEM IS AS LONG AS THEY ALL THINK THEY CAN BE THE ONE REMAINING ANTI-ROMNEY THEY'LL ALL STAY IN SO YOU NEVER GET THAT ONE-ON-ONE RACE. THAT'S MORE OR LESS WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT. THERE WAS ANOTHER BIT OF DATA WHICH CAME OUT IN SOME OF THE NATIONAL POLLING AMONG REPUBLICANS WHICH WAS NOT WHO DO YOU LIKE BUT WHO CAN YOU ACCEPT? WHO CAN YOU LIVE WITH? ROMNEY WAS REALLY THE ONLY CANDIDATE WHO THE MAJORITY OF REPUBLICANS CAN ACCEPT. THE MAJORITY OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS CANNOT ACCEPT ANY OF THE OTHERS. THAT MAKES YOU THINK IT'S STILL VERY MUCH ROMNEY'S TO LOSE.

>> Ifill: ELECTABILITY BECOMES THE TURNING POINT TONIGHT, MARK?

>> IT'S IMPORTANT. I THINK YOU'LL SEE THIS, IF MILTATE ROMNEY DOES WIN AS EXPECTED HERE TONIGHT IN NEW HAMPSHIRE HIS OWN NATIONAL POLL NUMBERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE. IF THAT HAPPENS, THE SENSE OF INEVITABILITY WILL, IN FACT, INCREASE. BUT SOUTH CAROLINA ALWAYS WANTS TO PLAY A PART AND HAVE THE VOICE IN THESE THINGS. I'M SURE THEY WILL.

>> Ifill: OKAY. WE'LL BE WAITING FOR SOUTH CAROLINA BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY WE'LL BE WAITING FOR TONIGHT'S RESULTS. THANK YOU, MARK. THANK YOU, DAVID.

>> THANK YOU.

>> Woodruff: AGAIN, THE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS OF THE DAY. NEW HAMPSHIRE VOTERS CAST BALLOTS IN THE YEAR'S FIRST PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY. MITT ROMNEY WAS THE FRONTRUNNER IN THE REPUBLICAN FIELD. SYRIAN PRESIDENT BASHAR AL-ASSAD INSISTED HE WOULD USE AN "IRON HAND" TO CRUSH THE TEN-MONTH-OLD UPRISING AGAINST HIS RULE. AND A BOMB BLAST IN NORTHWEST PAKISTAN KILLED AT LEAST 30 PEOPLE.

>> Woodruff: ONLINE, WE HAVE MUCH MORE ABOUT NEW HAMPSHIRE. HARI SREENIVASAN HAS A PREVIEW. HARI?

>> Sreenivasan: ON OUR HOME PAGE, FIND LINKS TO AN INTERACTIVE MAP OF RESULTS AND A VIEWER'S GUIDE TO OUR COVERAGE. PLUS, PATCHWORK NATION BREAKS DOWN THE PARTS OF THE GRANITE STATE THAT MITT ROMNEY NEEDS TO WIN TONIGHT. ON OUR WORLD PAGE, WE CONTINUE OUR LOOK AT HAITI, TWO YEARS AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE, WITH A STORY ON EFFORTS TO MOVE VICTIMS OUT OF TENT CAMPS INTO MORE PERMANENT HOUSING. AND HEALTH CORRESPONDENT BETTY ANN BOWSER SPOKE WITH 90-YEAR- OLD BROTHERS WHO STILL SWIM FOR OLYMPIC GOLD EVERY SUMMER AND USUALLY WIN. THEY SHARE THEIR TIPS FOR LIFELONG FITNESS ON OUR HEALTH PAGE. ALL THAT AND MORE IS ON OUR WEB SITE, newshour.pbs.org. GWEN?

>> Ifill: AND THAT'S THE NEWSHOUR FOR TONIGHT. I'M GWEN IFILL IN MANCHESTER, NEW HAMPSHIRE.

>> Woodruff: AND I'M JUDY WOODRUFF. WE'LL SEE YOU ONLINE, WHERE WE'LL POST THE CANDIDATES' VICTORY AND CONCESSION SPEECHES TONIGHT, PLUS YOU CAN WATCH ALL OUR PROGRAMMING ON YOUR MOBILE DEVICE. JUST DOWNLOAD THE PBS NEWSHOUR iPhone AND iPad APP. AND WE'LL BE HERE FOR A SPECIAL REPORT ON THE RESULTS OF THE CAUCUSES AT 11:00 P.M. EASTERN TIME, AND, AS THE CAMPAIGN MOVES TO SOUTH CAROLINA, AGAIN TOMORROW EVENING. THANKS FOR WATCHING. GOOD NIGHT. MAJOR FUNDING FOR THE PBS NEWSHOUR HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY: BNSF RAILWAY. AND BY THE BILL AND MELINDA GATES FOUNDATION. DEDICATED TO THE IDEA THAT ALL PEOPLE DESERVE THE CHANCE TO LIVE A HEALTHY PRODUCTIVE LIFE. AND WITH THE ONGOING SUPPORT OF THESE INSTITUTIONS AND FOUNDATIONS. AND... THIS PROGRAM WAS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE CORPORATION FOR PUBLIC BROADCASTING. AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU. THANK YOU. Captioning sponsored by MacNEIL/LEHRER PRODUCTIONS Captioned by Media Access Group at WGBH access.wgbh.org

>> THIS IS "BBC WORLD NEWS AMERICA."

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