The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

Intro

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. The lead stories this Monday are these. Fierce winter storms brought heavy snow and disaster to the Midwest and Northwest. Fabian Ver was reinstated as head of the Philippine armed services. Yelena Bonner arrived in Italy for medical treatment, and the head of NASA was indicted on criminal conspiracy and false statement charges. We'll have the details in a moment. Charlayne Hunter-Gault is in New York tonight. Charlayne?

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: The acquittal in the Philippines leads the NewsHour tonight as a Philippine opposition leader and two U.S. congressmen voice different reactions. And we find out about the continuing fallout from India's Bhopal tragedy one year later. News Summary

LEHRER: The upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest had storm problems today. Twenty-one inches of snow fell in Minneapolis, and reports of drifting snow as high as six feet came from other areas in northern Minnesota and Michigan. Minneapolis officials said it would take three days to clear the streets there. In the Northwest, blizzard conditions caused highways and roads, schools and businesses to close in many areas of Oregon and Washington. From Oregon, here's a report by Eric Schmidt of station KOIN.

ERIC SCHMIDT, KOIN-TV [voice-over]: The Pacific Ocean and the Columbia River Gorge combine to produce a wintery mixture of snow, ice, freezing rain and high winds in northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington state. And it was a combination that brought traffic to a virtual standstill on Interstate 84 through the Columbia River Gorge. The highway was closed for nearly six hours early Monday morning as blizzard conditions kept visibility near zero. The mighty Columbia River resembled the Pacific Ocean as east winds tore down the Gorge at 35 to 40 miles an hour, gusting to 50 miles an hour and more. In the Portland metro area there were surprisingly few power outages because of the high winds, but sporadic outages and downed lines were reported. Morning traffic was slow because of the freezing rain and snow, but relatively few accidents were recorded. As one state trooper put it, everything is moving so slow that it's hard to get killed. Area schoolchildren were given the day off as most private and virtually all public schools and universities were closed for the day. It was a great day to stay at home.

LEHRER: That report by Eric Schmidt.

The administrator of NASA, the U.S. space agency, was indicted today by a federal grand jury in Los Angeles. James M. Beggs was one of four current or past executives of General Dynamics charged with conspiring to defraud the government and making false statements. Beggs was corporate executive vice president of the company when the alleged crimes were committed. All grew out of a General Dynamics contract to build an anti-aircraft gun called the Sergeant York. Beggs said in a statement late this afternoon that he was innocent of all criminal wrongdoing and he was confident he would be exonerated. Charlayne?

HUNTER-GAULT: In the Philippines, within hours after being acquitted in the murder of opposition leader Benigno Aquino, General Fabian Ver was reinstated as chief of the country's armed forces. Ver was tried along with 25 others in a special court that normally tries government officials accused of graft. The three-judge civilian court accepted the military's story that Aquino was killed by an alleged communist agent at the Manila airport in August, 1983, not by Marcos loyalists in the army. Ver, who had been on leave of absence since last October, was reinstated by the Philippine president after he wrote him asking for his post back. While Marcos was congratulating his kinsman and close political ally on his acquittal, anti-Marcos demonstrators were in the streets protesting the verdict and urging Marcos to resign. Aquino's widow, Corazon, who is expected to run against Marcos in next February's presidential election, denounced the court decision.

CORAZON AQUINO, opposition leader: Now that the verdict is out, the Filipino people can fully understand why I said from the very beginning that justice is not possible so long as Marcos continues to be head of our government. Although I am convinced that misguided elements in the military had a direct hand in the assassination of Ninoy, I am not prepared to condemn all 13,000 officers and the entire military establishment for a heinous crime committed by a handful of Mr. Marcos' most loyal henchman. I now appeal to the decent elements of the military to help me get the facts and the truth.

HUNTER-GAULT: Here in the United States the Reagan administration led a chorus of criticism over the Philippine decisions. State Department spokesman Charles Redman praised the work of the Agrava Commission, an independent group which last year concluded that military personnel killed Aquino.

CHARLES REDMAN, State Department spokesman: The U.S. position since the Aquino murder has been that those responsible for this political murder, no matter who they may be, be held fully accountable and punished to the fullest extent of the law. It's very difficult to reconcile the exemplary, thorough work of the Agrava board and the conclusions it reached after a year of hard work with the outcome of this trial. President Marcos has indicated recently his intention to conduct a major reform of the Philippine military leadership. Such reform is long overdue. A key element in military reform is new, re-energized leadership. How the reinstatement of General Ver squares with President Marcos' professed desire to initiate serious reforms in the Philippine military is a question only he can answer.

HUNTER-GAULT: On Capitol Hill reaction was generally critical. Senator Paul Laxalt, who traveled to the Philippines on behalf of the Reagan administration earlier this year, said he had warned Marcos that an unconditional acquittal would be met with extreme criticism in the United States, but he added that the move came as no great surprise.

LEHRER: Yelena Bonner is in Rome tonight. The wife of Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov flew there from Moscow today. Before flying to Rome, the 62-year-old Bonner first stopped in Milan and was met by her son and son-in-law. She will receive medical treatment in Florence for eye trouble and then fly on to the United States to have a heart problem seen after. Reporters tried to talk to her, both in Moscow and Rome, but she declined. One of the conditions the Soviet government put on her permission to leave that country was that she not talk to reporters.

HUNTER-GAULT: In Bhopal, India, several thousand protestors marked the first anniversary of that city's gas leak tragedy by marching through the streets shouting "Down with killer Carbide" and burning effigies of Union Carbide chairman Warren Anderson. More than 1,000 heavily armed police were called out to protect the locked and barricaded Union Carbide factory from which lethal gas escaped last year, killing 2,500 people and injuring close to a quarter of a million others. It was the world's worst industrial accident. No violence was reported today at any of the company's 12 plants.

In a Paris suburb, an armed gang looted some $9.4 million from safes and strongboxes in a Brinks headquarters. The robbery occurred after the men, working in two separate teams, forced two Brinks employees from their homes, drove them to the headquarters in Colombes and made them open the safes with their keys. The gang of about 10 men escaped before dawn in a stolen van.

LEHRER: Finally in the news of this day the Atlantis astronauts held a news conference today from 204 nautical miles away in space. It was the last major event of their week's mission. They return to earth tomorrow morning at Edwards Air Force Base in California.

HUNTER-GAULT: Still ahead on the NewsHour, a Philippine opposition leader and two U.S. congressmen react to the acquittal verdict in the Aquino murder trial and the reinstatement of Philippines army chief Ver. And we look at the Bhopal tragedy one year later. Aquino Verdict: Justice Served?

HUNTER-GAULT: We turn now to today's events in the Philippines and the long-awaited verdict in the case of opposition leader Benigno Aquino, killed on the airport tarmac on his return to his country in 1983. General Fabian Ver, chief of the armed forces, and 25 other defendants were found innocent, and President Marcos immediately reinstated Ver, his distant relative and close political ally. The three civilian court judges ruled that the real killer of Aquino was Rolando Galman, a conclusion disputed by an eyewitness. She said instead that she saw a soldier shoot Aquino. Today in a New York press conference, Rebecca Quijano, who was a passenger on the plane with Aquino, told how she was offered a bribe and her life threatened to get her to change her testimoney.

REBECCA QUIJANO, eyewitness: It was between May 2nd and June 6th when a family friend of ours came to see me in trying to bribe me for 2,000 -- I mean, two million pesos just to change my testimony. And there was a threat that if I don't agree with them my life will be in danger. [inaudible question] If there will be a retrial, even if I have to risk my life I am willing to go. Not right now. I don't think it's safe. [question] Of course I'm afraid, but if they need me I'm willing to go.

REPORTER: Can you tell us what you saw on the day he was assassinated?

Ms. QUIJANO: I saw this soldier in khaki uniform shoot Senator Aquino or the stairs.

HUNTER-GAULT: Now to some Filipino opposition reaction. We have with us Sonny Alvarez, president of the Ninoy Aquino Movement, a network of Filipino opposition groups located throughout the United States, Europe and Canada. Prior to going into exile, Mr. Alvarez served as an elected delegate to the Filipino constitutional convention in 1972. Mr. Alvarez, what was your reaction to the not guilty verdict?

SONNY ALVAREZ: Although somehow we had expected that something like this will come, we are of course outraged. And more than that we feel that it's more than a travesty of justice, it's really a breach of common decency and the ground rules of fairness. I think that what Mr. Marcos has done is flaunted political power in the Philippines. And even here among our movement people, we feel that this is like the second assassination, and it's just as well-orchestrated as the first assassination but equally as blatant and as grotesque.

HUNTER-GAULT: Well, what do you mean, you expected the -- you weren't surprised at the outcome?

Mr. ALVAREZ: Well, you know, Mr. Marcos has always been very good in covering his acts with some order of law, but this time around he disregarded all the ground rules. With the massive evidence, with world public opinion more or less shaped and knowing who shot Mr. Aquino, he can't sit around and adopt the much discredited position that it was a lone communist gunman that did it. And this time around it's so well-orchestrated. He can void the whole political and judicial machinery of the government.

HUNTER-GAULT: Are you saying that the judges, the three-person panel of judges was --

Mr. ALVAREZ: There is no doubt. If we look into the entire proceeding from the Supreme Court down the line to the panel of judges, there has been a very sophisticated way of putting these things together. Nonetheless, public opinion is very much kwake anPd, would know how these things have developed. And Mr. Marcos seems to have put the technical arguments in place. But to be able to come out and exonerate all the guilty parties would just be too outrageous, I think, not only for the opposition but for any common observer. I think world public opinion should be outraged, is outraged, and the Congress I think is outraged.

HUNTER-GAULT: Well, we're going to hear from a couple of members of Congress in a couple of minutes. Let me ask you this, though. What impact do you think that this outcome might have on the prospect of free and fair elections, which are scheduled now --

Mr. ALVAREZ: I think that this is an indication of the attitude of Mr. Marcos towards even the semblance of a democratic process. We should not hope for a free and honest election. But I for a democrat, not meaning belonging to the Democratic Party, but I as a democrat would still give a crack at the election because I want to give some peaceful opportunity for change there one last chance. But we should be very worried because the attitude of Mr. Marcos, it seems, from this outrageous decision and reinstitution of Mr. Ver, is to say that, "Here I am. I have all the powers. I'm giving you an election. I'll give you a whitewash of an election, but I'm going to do all these outrageous things."

HUNTER-GAULT: So what's your sense of what this reinstatement of General Ver means in terms of Mr. Marcos' commitment to reform of the military?

Mr. ALVAREZ: I think that he is putting on a charade. I think that the reinstatement of Mr. Ver may actually be a prepositioning in order that he would be able to run away neat and clean with elections. With Mr. Ver reinstituted -- you know, over the last few years the Congress has put this pressure and a growing disenchantment in perhaps the near-chaotic situation of the Philippines, Mr. Marcos has been forced to make some retreats. He's taken some steps backward. He's renegotiated.

HUNTER-GAULT: You mean with the U.S. Congress?

Mr. ALVAREZ: With the U.S. Congress, with U.S. public opinion. He has been on television, on your program. He's been with other programs. He's trying to win over some support. And he's going for an election. And now suddenly he comes around with this outrageous decision. Mr. Marcos seemed to be saying that, "Okay, I'll give you an election." So he thinks that the election is going to be the cure-all. But meanwhile he plays his old game, and this time around he plays it more nakedly and more blatantly.

HUNTER-GAULT: Well, what about the opposition forces in the Philippines now? Mrs. Aquino is expected to run, Senator Laurel, who is another opposition force leader, has already said he is going to run. Is there not a divided opposition here that weakens its opportunity to be effective against the Marcos government with that kind of division?

Mr. ALVAREZ: No, I have been in conversation with Manila. I have been in conversation not more than 12 hours ago. And there is an earnest effort among the leaders to come together. The difficult democratic process of putting the nitty-gritty together is still on, and I think that there's going to be a united theme.

HUNTER-GAULT: Do you think the two of them might run together?

Mr. ALVAREZ: -- and I think that they will get together, especially after this announcement. More than ever it has become imperative for Mrs. Aquino to come forward and lead the ticket and throw this issue. The issue of the assassination has now become a political question because the whole political machinery has been an instrument of the conspiracy from the presidency to the supreme court, down the line.

HUNTER-GAULT: Let me ask you very briefly. The United States has been warning the Marcos government not to reinstate General Ver, and you heard the reaction from the State Department spokesman today. Do you think the U.S. has been tough enough with the Philippine government?

Mr. ALVAREZ: I think that it has been playing with smooth gloves with Marcos. This time they have allowed Mr. Marcos to go this far, and Mr. Marcos has put U.S. foreign policy on the spot because not only Democrats like Congressman Solarz has been telling his colleagues in the House that the only reason that Mr. Marcos will pay attention to is when you make some very strong signals like chopping military aid. Military aid has been chopped by his committee to 25 of the intended $100 million.

HUNTER-GAULT: All right, well, I think we have to get some of that now from Mr. Solarz.

Mr. ALVAREZ: Yes, and in any case I think that the foreign policy has come to a point where it has got to make some very hard decisions. It has to call Mr. Marcos' bluff. I think Mr. Marcos has played around too much with the United States and perhaps American public opinion as well.

HUNTER-GAULT: All right, Mr. Alvarez, thank you. Jim?

LEHRER: Yes, for the record, we asked the Philippine government to send a representative tonight. They declined. U.S. congressional reaction to the Ver acquittal and reinstatement is what we sample next with two members of Congress who see the overall Philippine situation differently. They are Stephen Solarz, Democrat of New York, chairman of the House Asian and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee and a strong critic of the Marcos government, and John McCain, Republican of Arizona, and a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee who supports continued U.S. backing for Marcos.

Congressman McCain, first of all, should General Ver have been reinstated in your opinion?

Rep. JOHN McCAIN: I think possibly that it's not as dangerous an act as it will be if it appears it's not a temporary reinstatement. If it is a permanent act, then the hopes for military reform in the Philippines, I think, will be quite dim and the overall prospect of a military success over the very now sizeable and important communist movement will be dramatically reduced.

LEHRER: But you think it's possible it was a temporary face-saving thing that's been suggested?

Rep. McCAIN: Jim, I think we have to hope that it's temporary, because if it's permanent then all of the efforts we would make towards a free election and the other movements towards full participation, etc., will not come to fruition overall, because the best experts I know sw3ay that the military situation continues to deteriorate until there is a significant military reform. I don't think that can take place with General Ver as the head of the military.

LEHRER: Congressman Solarz, your view?

Rep. STEPHEN SOLARZ: Well, I think that the reinstatement of General Ver, Jim, was a great tragedy. It diminishes whatever slim prospects there were for meaningful reform in the Philippine military. It was, after all, during General Ver's tenure as chief of staff that corruption infected the highest reaches of the Philippine officer corps. It was under his tenure as chief of staff that the professionalism of the Philippine military declined dramatically. And his reappointment by President Marcos will be seen as a signal, not only by the Filipino people but by the Philippine military, that he simply isn't serious about the need for real reform in his own security establishment.

LEHRER: Congressman McCain, on the question of the acquittal, Mrs. Aquino, as we saw in a tape clip at the top of the program, said that justice is not possible under Marcos. Do you agree with that?

Rep. McCAIN: Oh, not entirely. I think that they had some elections, last May of 1984, that were generally fair, with some major exceptions, but where progress was made. I think the fact that Mrs. Aquino is able to speak out as she is is indicative that there are still some freedoms existing in the Philippines.

LEHRER: Well, what about the criminal justice system, which is what she was referring to, and the fact that General Ver and the others in the military were acquitted of having been involved in the murder of Benigno Aquino?

Rep. McCAIN: Then I think it places a burden on the Marcos government to come up with those who are guilty of this crime and come up with the real culprits. If they don't, then the conclusion would have to be drawn that Ver is certainly in some way responsible.

LEHRER: What do you think of the verdict and the justice system, Congressman Solarz?

Rep. SOLARZ: Well, I think it was a travesty of justice, Jim. There are 55 million Filipinos, and I would say that with the exception of the three-judge panel, the rest of them are all convinced that it was the government in the Philippines itself that was responsible for the assassination of Ninoy Aquino. The acquittal of General Ver was not surprising inasmuch as a few months ago the supreme court of the Philippines had thrown out all of the evidence against General Ver which came in the form of his own testimony before the Agrava Commission which had investigated the assassination. But what was surprising was the acquittal of the 25 other codefendants who were indisputably involved in the assassination and the decision on the part of the court to point the finger of guilt at Rolando Galman, whom the government originally claimed was responsible for the assassination of Ninoy Aquino, when there is incontrovertible physical evidence that Mr. Galman could not possibly have assassinated Ninoy Aquino. And I think this clearly indicates that this trial was a travesty of justice from the beginning to the end.

LEHRER: All right, now gentlemen, let's move to the central question to the two of you, and to all Americans, is what the U.S. reaction should be to this. Congressman McCain, you have said in the past that the United States should not turn its back on President Marcos. Is your opinion still that tonight after what has happened the last couple of days?

Rep. McCAIN: If Ver is left in his present job permanently then I would certainly have some question about our continued support. Also, obviously a lot of it is keyed on the upcoming elections and the fairness of those elections. No, we cannot continue supporting Marcos under any circumstances. I would like to remind you that our interference, particularly congressional interference and expertise, led to changes in Nicaragua and Iran that have not been in the United States' best national interests, number one, and an argument can be made that because of congressional reduction -- dramatic reductions in aid to South Vietnam at least hastened the downfall of that government. We are not in the business, particularly from the congressional level, of choosing people as leaders for them. And if we get into that business, which has happened all too often, in my opinion, the results can be far more serious for United States national security interests. Let's not forget we have two key bases in that part of the world. A cursory glance at the Pacific indicates that there is no place else where we can go to maintain our vital national security interests in that part of the world. I'm glad that Mr. Solarz is so convinced that everything is so cut and dried and unequivocal in this situation. I am not, and I'm willing to give the Marcos administration a chance to hold some free and honest elections which we can indeed monitor and ascertain whether they are or not.

LEHRER: And we should withhold any kind of overt action against him --

Rep. McCAIN: Jim, if we cut off aid -- we have a deal with him, a signed, negotiated agreement on&rour base rights there. If we cut off all aid, then it seems to me that the obvious reaction of the Philippine government would be to throw us out. Maybe that time may come. I don't think that time has arrived yet.

LEHRER: What do you think, Congressman Solarz? Has the time arrived for the United States to get tough with Marcos?

Rep. SOLARZ: Absolutely, Jim. I think that we have to put the government of the Philippines on notice that we will not continue to disperse any military assistance to them whatsoever, so long as General Ver is maintained in his position as commander in chief of the armed forces.

LEHRER: This should be done publicly?

Rep. SOLARZ: I think it should be done first privately and, if necessary, publicly, because we not only have to serve notice on President Marcos that he won't be able to continue counting on doing business as usual with the United States while Ver remains in office. I think it's essential for us, if we want to maintain our long-term access to these military facilities in the Philippines, to have the good will of the Filipino people, and that requires us to publicly disassociate ourselves from what is clearly a corrupt and discredited regime.

LEHRER: But what about Congressman McCain's point that this isn't a job for Congress, this is a job for the executive branch of government?

Rep. SOLARZ: I think it would be desirable if the President and the Congress could work together on this. Indeed, over the course of the last year administration witnesses have testified before my subcommittee on numerous occasions that the reinstatement of General Ver would be fundamentally incompatible with the kind of military reforms which are essential for the effective utilization of the assistance we give them. Indeed, we could double, triple, or even quadruple our aid, but if General Ver remains in power as chief of staff, none of it will be used effectively.

Rep. McCAIN: Those same administration witnesses have not advocated that the steps, also, follows that Mr. Solarz is now advocating. So I would like to see them work together. I would not like to see Mr. Solarz and his subcommittee in the lead, which is what apparently is attempt to take place here. I'd also like to ask if those who want to immediately cut off all this aid without giving the Marcos regime a chance to hold fair and honest elections, if they have a plan for the evacuation of U.S. military forces and how we're going to handle our strategic requirements in the Pacific.

LEHRER: Congressman Solarz?

Rep. SOLARZ: Well, I think that the major priority for the United States right now, Jim, in addition to securing the replacement of General Ver, is to use all of our influence to bring about free and fair elections in that country. It's the last best hope for the restoration of democracy and the defeat of communism.

LEHRER: Well, both of you agree on that.

Rep. SOLARZ: Yeah, I think we do both agree, but I would hope --

Rep. McCAIN: Yeah, I think we are.

Rep. SOLARZ: John, I hope you would agree with me that if General Ver remains as chief of staff through the election which is supposed to be held on February 7th, the prospects for a genuinely honest election will be significantly diminished, and the credibility of the electoral process will be virtually non-existent if it's supervised by someone like GeneralVer, who is widely considered a loyalist of the president and who, everybody believes, will not scruple for a minute to use the Philippine military in order to intimidate the people into supporting President Marcos for re-election.

Rep. McCAIN: I'm not in disagreement with that, but let's not have the Congress of the United States take precipitous action such as condemnation and others of an activity that is yet to take place. And I would also agree, as I said earlier, if General Ver remains in place, elections are almost irrelevant because the military situation will sooner or later degenerate.

LEHRER: Well, so when you say temporary, you mean two or three weeks.

Rep. McCAIN: Yes, two or three weeks, indeed. It would have to be a short time.

LEHRER: And if he is still in office, he's still running the armed forces in 30 days or a little longer, when that election comes, forget it, huh?

Rep. McCAIN: I think prospects for a free and open election are very dim. I would also like to say again, if the United States Congress continues in inflammatory fashion to cause Mr. Marcos to react, such as saying okay, we're going to terminate your base rights, etc., it is not in the United States' best interest. It is also not in the United States' best interest to polarize the situation so that the Philippine people are faced with a choice of a communist overthrow or keeping Mr. Marcos.

LEHRER: In other words, let's cool it and just see what happens and give Marcos a chance. In a word, yes, sir? Congressman Solarz, we have to move.

Rep. SOLARZ: Jim, it wasn't the Congress of the United States which was responsible for the polarization of the situation in the Philippines.

Rep. McCAIN: I didn't say it was.

Rep. SOLARZ: It was the assassination of Ninoy Aquino. It was the massive corruption at the highest levels of government. It was the growing communist insurgency. It was events which took place in the Philippines largely as the result of the decisions made by President Marcos rather than the decisions made by the Congress of the United States.

LEHRER: Speaking of the Congress of the United States, thank you both for being with us tonight.

Rep. McCAIN: Thank you, Jim.

LEHRER: Charlayne?

HUNTER-GAULT: Still to come on the NewsHour, a look at the Bhopal, India, tragedy one year later.

This is pledge week on PBS and we're taking a short break now so that your public television station can ask for your support. That support helps to keep programs like this on the air. We'll be back shortly.

[pledge week break]

Bhopal One Year Later

LEHRER: It was a year ago today that Bhopal happened. Poisonous gas leaked from a Union Carbide plant in Bhopal, India, killing more than 2,000 people. It is a grim anniversary we look at first with this report from Mark Tully of the BBC.

MARK TULLY, BBC [voice-over]: Just before midnight, exactly one year ago, citizens of Bhopan huddled under their blankets for protection from the winter cold were awakened by an acrid smell, fits of coughing and burning pain to the eyes. As the pains grew worse they panicked and fled. They'd never been warned about the effects of poison gas, so they didn't know that they should cover their mouths and noses with wet cloths. The failure to teach the public safety precautions magnified the disaster. At least 2,500 people died on that night, and a quarter of a million people were seriously affected. Some of them have died since and many will never fully recover. But life has to go on for the survivors. There are clothes to be washed, dishes, too. And many of the children in this, the worst-hit slum, still suffer from eye infection. Prayer is one way of forgetting that dreadful night. Opposite the slum stands the Union Carbide plant. Litter blows in the wind. The vent from which the gas escaped is closed forever. Effigies of the Union Carbide executives sit on the walls. The name of Union Carbide has been blotted out for good. With the plant closed, the workers face an uncertain future. They sit every day at the factory gate to protest against the compensation Union Carbide has paid, the legal minimum. In Bhopal there's confusion and uncertainty everywhere. Patchoury lost her husband and her seven-year-old child in the disaster. She's still seriously ill and doesn't know whether she'll recover.

[interviewing] What are you suffering from?

Ms. PATCHOURY [through translator]: Now?

TULLY: Yes, now.

Ms. PATCHOURY [through translator]: Breathlessness and giddiness, burning pains in the stomach, severe fever, lots of water in my eyes.

TULLY: All because of the gas?

Ms. PATCHOURY [through translator]: Yes, it's because of the gas.

TULLY: Sumitra Devi says she has pains everywhere and that she suffers from nausea and vomiting. The government has promised 100 pounds to all the sufferers.

[interviewing] Did you get any relief from the government?

SUMITRA DEVI, gas victim [through translator]: I received it very late.

TULLY: Just now?

Ms. DEVI [through interpreter]: Yes, just now. Eight or 15 days ago.

TULLY [voice-over]: Dr. Ishwar Das is the civil servant faced with the awesome responsibility of providing relief after the world's worst industrial disaster. I asked him why it had taken so long to make the relief payments.

Dr. ISHWAR DAS, government administrator: Well, this is a normal experience for us, this tragedy. We are used to natural disasters, you know, managing scarcity conditions, floods and things of that type. But this is a tragedy in which hundreds of thousands of people were involved, and whereas the relief was rushed very rapidly to me to provide an ad hoc response. But when we are talking of systematic rehabilitation or systematic responses, one has to base it on some surveys, some data. Otherwise they could be having much more confusion than one sees today.

TULLY [voice-over]: Indian and foreign press reports often give the impression that Dr. Ishwar Das and the government have done nothing. That's untrue. Apart from paying out relief and arranging for medical treatment, they've started rehabilitating families who've lost their wage earners. Here, 120 women sew uniforms for government service. But the task is enormous. At least 30,000 families need rehabilitation. The government has also set up camps to help victims claim compensation from Union Carbide; 150,000 claims have been made, and there are obviously more to come. Many need the help of clerks to fill out the compensation claim forms. A thumb is the only imprint this woman can make. Bhopal's large Moslem population is well represented among the complainers. Three is no confusion here, too.

American judges haven't even decided whether claims against Union Carbide can be heard there. Lawyers in America and Bhopal are also wrangling over the rights to represent the gas victims. The slow pace of America's courts is delaying India's own investigation into the course of the disaster. When Mr. Justice M. K. Singh arrives at the commission of inquiry he heads, he's greeted with the full majesty of the law. Inside the commission the lawyer for the victims is not so respectful. He's deeply suspicious of the delays. He maintains that both the government and Union Carbide are conspiring to hide their guilt.

After nearly one year an official does at last file the government's case. In its statement the government tells Union Carbide lawyers their clients failed to maintain a safe plant. It accuses the multinational of deliberate, conscious and wanton disregard of the rights and safety of the people of Bhopal. It speaks of chronically leaking valves, corroding pipes, poor industrial relations, morale and discipline. But the solemnity of the occasion hides a sham. The government of India has still not said what it really thinks happened on the night of December the 2nd. It doesn't want to reveal its hand to Union Carbide.

The delay in hearing compensation claims is causing confrontation and confusion in medical circles, too. Some doctors have said the victims are still suffering from cyanide poisoning; other say they're not. There are two types of critics and two types of treatment. In this government hospital doctors are reluctant to administer sodium thiocyanate injections; it's the antidote for cyanide poisoning. These doctors do not accept that patients are suffering from that poison. Dr. Navendra Mishra is professor of medicine in Bhopal.

Dr. NAVENDRA MISHTRA, professor of medicine, Bhopal: We have been giving sodium thiosulfate right from the very first week of this episode, and subsequently we have tried to analyze sodium thiosulfate scientifically to find out now much benefit it produces in these patients. From whatever information that we have gathered so far, it does not appear that at this point of time sodium thiosulfate would really do them any good.

TULLY [voice-over]: There is still a running battle between Dr. Mishra and volunteer doctors working with the people's health center. The volunteer doctors insist that victims are suffering from cyanide poisoning. They give a full course of sodium thiosulfate injections to all their patients. The volunteers maintain that Dr. Mishra has links with Union Carbide, but Dr. Mishra denies that.

Dr. MISHRA: I make it very clear that I have no links with Union Carbide for any personal gains or benefit, but Union Carbide did generate some facilities in our hospital for acute respiratory care for the benefit of their own patients who could have been exposed to gas.

TULLY [voice-over]: While Union Carbide refuses to accept that cyanide gas escaped and the Indian [unintelligible] the medical research wavers first one way and then the other, the victims continue to die. Inevitably there's confusion over the number who are still dying, but officials at cremation grounds say 8,000 people were cremated in the year before the disaster, and 15,000 so far this year. Gover Dhan, a 21-year-old laborer, is burying his baby. His wife is in hospital suffering from gas poisoning. Their child only survived 24 hours. While Gover Dhan, grieves doctors argue about treatment, lawyers argue about compensation, and sociologists argue about rehabilitation. Bhopal has become a veritable Babel with everyone, including the press, speaking in the tongue of their choice.

LEHRER: That report by Mark Tully of the BBC. We invited Union Carbide to send a representative to be with us tonight. They declined. As Mr. Tully just said, the various medical, psychological, economic, legal and social aftermaths of Bhopal are under extensive study and probably will be forever. One such studier is Paul Shrivastava. He is a native of Bhopal who is a business professor at New York University. Last year he founded the Industrial Crisis Institute to monitor the effects of the Bhopal tragedy, anrd he is now writing a book about it.

First, in simple terms as is known now, what was the cause of the tragedy? What is known about that?

PAUL SHRIVASTAVA: I don't think you can describe the causes of this tragedy in any simple terms. The tragedy was caused by a complex set of interdependent factors, of which I would like to just point out four today. There were organizational decisions and policies and procedures that were mistaken. There were technological causes which involved faulty design, faulty equipment, supplies that were contaminated, and operating procedures which were not followed. Thirdly, there were human factors; things like lack of training of personnel, manning down of the number of people operating the plant, which reduced the backup factor of safety and, finally, environmental conditions, which were outside the plant. The plant was located in the wrong place, two kilometers away from the railway station and the bus stand, and in the middle of a very crowded neighborhood. The public health and the medical infrastructure around the plant were very weak and just incapable of coping with the accident. So these are these factors which interact together to cause this tragedy.

LEHRER: In other words, the exact same thing, from a technological, a plant standpoint, it could have happened in another location and more than 2,000 people would not have died? Is that what you're saying?

Mr. SHRIVASTAVA: That's right. Even in this very location if the adequate infrastructure was available a lot of lives can be saved. To give you a very concrete example, if the local police authorities and if the local government and local authorities had known what the response to a disaster like this are, they could have prevented many people from running around on that night and breathing a lot of MIC. And they could have prevented a lot of injuries that way.

LEHRER: And, as we saw on the tape, just the idea of people knowing to put things over their eyes could have saved a lot of tragedy, too. Why is there such confusion over how many people did die in this tragedy?

Mr. SHRIVASTAVA: Well, the fundamental reason for the confusion is that nobody knew how many people lived in these neighborhoods. The best records we have are the election records which take account of only people who are eligible to vote. So nobody knows how many people above the ages of 65 or below the ages of 18 lived in these neighborhoods. Most of these people are migrant workers. They kept on shifting their living locations, and there are just no accurate accounts of that. The other reason why the uncertainty is so high is that because of the mass confusion that occurred after the accident, a large number of people were buried in mass graves or were just taken away by relatives without registering them with any governmental authority. And those people have just not been counted. So you get estimates today which range all the way from 2,000 on the lower side, although the government has released a figure of 1,757, all the way up to 15,000. And the people who subscribe to the 15,000 number are basically arguing that there has been some kind of a massive coverup, although if you look at the details there doesn't seem to be any reason why there would be, or how there could be such a major coverup. But it is true that a large number of people were just not counted, and the death toll is sjFomewhere close to 3,000 than to 1,757 that the government has released.

LEHRER: Do you think it's closer to 3,000 based on your own investigation?

Mr. SHRIVASTAVA: Most of my investigation has focused on identifying the gaps in the accounting procedures that the government adopted and that the local reporters adopted. And then factoring in some of the eyewitness reports that I heard on my first visit to Bhopal after the accident. And my estimates are closer to 3,000.

LEHRER: You lived in Bhopal for 23 years, is that correct?

Mr. SHRIVASTAVA: That's right.

LEHRER: You've been back three times since the tragedy. What has it done to that town?

Mr. SHRIVASTAVA: Well, there are two reactions of this tragedy in Bhopal. One is the reaction of the people who were not directly affected by the gas, and those people would like to get on with their lives. They have found this to be a very major social disruption, a major disruption of business and economic arrangements in the city, and it has brought only more hardships to them, although they've not been directly affected. So those people would like to get on and try to help in whatever way they can, but they don't want to linger on with the tragedy. But the people who have been directly affected and are continuously -- new people are being found who have been affected indirectly, like the psychological causes that are now being acknowledged. Those people feel very desperate. They feel very helpless because whatever the government has done, and the government has done a lot of things in these last several months, but it's not adequate. It's net ever close to what is needed to be able to cope with the disaster of this magnitude.

LEHRER: And what does that add up to? I mean, what are you saying about this?

Mr. SHRIVASTAVA: Well, it adds up to a lot of people who don't have jobs, a lot of people who don't have -- even if they had jobs couldn't perform those jobs. There are people who are now virtually on the verge of beggary because they have no other source of income. They have been taking the dole-outs and the relief measures that the government has been giving them for several years, but they have no way of sustaining themselves on a lifelong basis unless something quickly happened on the compensation front.

LEHRER: And it doesn't look like that's going to happen quickly, right?

Mr. SHRIVASTAVA: It doesn't look like it's going to happen in the law courts, at least. Maybe outside the law courts there might be some settlements reached.

LEHRER: I see. Well, Mr. Shrivastava, thank you very much for being with us.

Mr. SHRIVASTAVA: Thank you, Jim.

HUNTER-GAULT: And now for the Lurie cartoon, looking at one of today's top stories.

[Lurie cartoon -- Three Philippine judges bang their gavels on Aquino's casket while being transformed into three monkeys who see, hear and speak no evil]

LEHRER: Again the major stories of this Monday. Separate winter storms have brought heavy snow and devastation to the upper Midwest and the Pacific Northwest. Yelena Bonner, wife of Soviet dissident Andrei Sakharov, arrived in Italy for medical treatment. Fabian Ver was reinstated head of the Philippine armed services after his aquittal on charges of being involved in the murder of Benigno Aquino. And James Beggs, head of NASA, was indicted on charges of conspiring to defraud and lying to the government about contracts when he was an executive at General Dynamics. Good night, Charlayne.

HUNTER-GAULT: Good night, Jim. That's our NewsHour for tonight. We'll be back tomorrow night. I'm Charlayne Hunter-Gault. Good night.