The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight, the details of the day's two major stories: The crash of an American Airlines plane in New York, killing at least 255 people; and the dramatic successes of the anti-Taliban forces in Afghanistan; plus a Newsmaker interview with Pakistan President Musharraf, and a second look at a story of post-September 11 coping in New York.

FOCUS - AIRLINER CRASH

JIM LEHRER: Now to the details on our first major story, today's air crash in New York. Kwame Holman begins.

KWAME HOLMAN: Smoke rose high over the crash site in the Rockaway section of Queens after the impacts about 9:15 this morning. American Airlines Flight 587 took off moments earlier from John F. Kennedy International Airport, five miles away. The Airbus 300 was bound for the Dominican Republic with 246 passengers and nine crew members onboard. It burst into flames on impact, setting ablaze at least a dozen homes and other buildings. Flames shot above treetops. There was no sign anyone on the plane survived. Six people were missing on the ground In Rockaway, about 30 were injured, none seriously. Wreckage scattered widely. One of the airliner's engines landed a few feet from a gas station's pumps. Some reported hearing an explosion and seeing an engine and other parts fall from the plane.

MAN: I saw a poof, and a flame, and it looked like a wing falling off the plane, and it just nosed down.

WOMAN: I'm sitting in my kitchen having a cup of coffee. The sun caught my eye. I just looked to the left and I saw the tail of a plane just aiming for the ground, and I felt an impact and then I saw smoke and I started screaming in my kitchen. I just couldn't believe my eyes. Here we go again, you know? Oh, it's just terrible.

KWAME HOLMAN: The crash came two months after the hijacked airliners assault on the World Trade Center in Manhattan, triggering fears another attack was under way. The New York area's major airports-- Kennedy, La Guardia, and Newark in New Jersey-- were closed forseveral hours. The United Nations building was locked down partially as diplomats attended a General Assembly session. The Empire State Building was evacuated, and bridges and tunnels were closed to all but emergency vehicle traffic. At the crash site, Mayor Rudolph Giuliani was asked his reaction on hearing of the crash.

MAYOR RUDOLPH GIULIANI: Oh, my God. The first thing that went through my mind was oh, my God. I just passed a church in which I've been to ten funerals. Rockaway was particularly hard hit. The disproportionate number of the people we lost not just the police and fire but even the workers at the World Trade Center were here from Rockaway and Staten Island. And I've been here probably 20 times for funerals and wakes, so the idea that Rockaway was the victim of this... I mean, anyplace it happens obviously is awful, but it had a special significance to it. We'll do everything we can to help these people, everything, and the President is on top of it. They're alert. They're watching everything else all over the country so I think people should remain absolutely calm. This can be handled and we're just being tested one more time and we're going to pass this test too.

KWAME HOLMAN: The National Transportation Safety Board was designated the lead agency to investigate the crash. The agency's chair, Marion Blakey, spoke from Washington.

MARION BLAKEY, Chairman, National Transportation Safety Board: The wreckage is scattered over a wide area. We have reports from the Coast Guard, in fact, that they have had recovery of some major parts out of Jamaica Bay. We also have been able to recover so far the flight data recorder. It is the case that the National Transportation Safety Board is the lead agency because all information we have currently is that this is an accident.

KWAME HOLMAN: The Associated Press reported witnesses saw flames shooting out of the left engine and that the plane had trouble climbing and was banking to the left when it went down. This afternoon, New York Governor George Pataki said there were indications the plane dumped fuel over Jamaica Bay. He said that suggested the pilot knew there was trouble. Whatever the cause, the crash was another blow to the airline industry, and especially to American Airlines, which lost two planes September 11. American's chairman, Donald Carty, spoke at the company's headquarters in Fort Worth, Texas.

DONALD CARTY, CEO, American Airlines: As you would imagine today's news comes at a difficult time for the nation, a difficult time for the airline industry, and a very difficult time for American Airlines. Given the changed world we live in today, it will be as important as it has ever been to quickly and accurately determine the cause.

KWAME HOLMAN: Tourism officials worry the crash will be another blow to New York City at a time they're trying to encourage people to start visiting again. Late this afternoon, President Bush appeared with former South African President Nelson Mandela and said he was confident New York would recover.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: The New York people have suffered mightily. They suffer again, but there's no doubt in my mind that the New Yorkers are resilient and strong and courageous people and will help their neighbors overcome this recent incident that took place.

JIM LEHRER: For more on the crash, we're joined by Lee Dickinson, a former member of the National Transportation Safety Board. He's now the director of Exponent Failure Analysis, a firm that specializes in investigating transportation accidents; Douglas Laird, a managing partner of BGI International, a consulting company on in counter terrorism and aviation security. He is a former security director at Northwest Airlines; and Paul Czysz, a professor of aerospace engineering at St. Louis University.

Mr. Dickinson, the NTSB, the National Transportation Safety Board, is investigating this as an accident.

LEE DICKINSON: Correct.

JIM LEHRER: What should we read from that? What does that mean?

LEE DICKINSON: What that means is, Jim, that typically the NTSB is responsible for investigating all civil aviation accidents that happen in the United States. That is their mandate by law. I think your question is, because you didn't hear the word or the letters FBI, does that mean the FBI is not involved? The answer to that question is most likely not. The FBI will continue to work until there is determination made that there is no reason for the FBI to be involved.

JIM LEHRER: But I think I'm really asking is was a separate determination made based on early evidence that they found this morning or this afternoon that this was most likely an accident rather than sabotage, so the NTSB is the lead person or the lead agency or would that have happened no matter what?

LEE DICKINSON: That would typically happen no matter what. Now if they had information that would lead the FBI to take a lead role, then that would be the cause of action. It's my understanding and it's been released that they have right now at the present time no knowledge that there is a terrorist attack and therefore the NTSB is taking a lead role to determine the cause of the accident working with the FBI.

JIM LEHRER: As a matter of practice and based on your experience, is it better to assume going in that it is an accident and work from there, or is it better to assume it was sabotage and go from there or does it matter?

LEE DICKINSON: It does matter. The number of actions that I investigated when I was a member of the NTSB We worked hand in hand with the FBI and what would happen is the FBI would do their work and the NTSB would do their investigative work. When it was determined that one of the agencies could back out, if you will, of the investigation and the other take over as in the... If you recall TWA 800 that went on for a number -- a long period of time, to see who is going to be responsible for the action, the NTSB or the FBI. That's the formal course of events. That's how these investigations unfold.

JIM LEHRER: To get to the specifics of today I'm not going to hold you to this I any way whatsoever, I'm going to ask Mr. Laird and Mr. Czysz the same question. Based on what you've read and what you heard, does this have the smell of an accident or the smell of sabotage?

LEE DICKINSON: Again this is very early on. We're not even 12 hours into this accident. Some of the things that I've heard about the possibility of witnesses saying that an engine may have fallen off -- we saw from your earlier video that there was an engine sitting in the front of a gasoline station. That would give me some concern, at least I'd want to look at why there was a piece or a component of the airplane that's separate from the main debris. We also saw that the vertical tail financial, which is the piece that you normally see the logos on for American Airlines, also separate from the debris field, I would want to know why the airplane apparently was coming down or components were coming down in separate locations. What that... All that is telling me from an investigative standpoint is that there are a lot of questions to be raised and a lot more answers that you have to find out.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Czysz, on the .. Professor Czysz, excuse me, on the separation of the engine, what does that tell you? What causes an engine to fall off? What could possibly cause an engine like that to fall off an Airbus 300?

PAUL CZYSZ: That's a very unusual occurrence. There would be very few things that I think would cause an engine to fall off. The General Electric engines are designed for containment of the fan blades.

JIM LEHRER: There are two engines on this airplane. General Electric engines, yes, go ahead.

PAUL CZYSZ: CF-6 and the engines are about 12, 15 feet in front of the wing-leading edge, and even if the engine disassembled itself, it would not hit the wing structure. So it's a very unusual occurrence to see an engine come off of an airplane. I know only one other case that it's happened and that was the one in Chicago with the DC-10.

JIM LEHRER: What caused that to happen?

PAUL CZYSZ: That was traced to an installation error in which the forklift actually jammed the engine, the cell into the pylon and cracked it.

JIM LEHRER: But as a practical matter to come at it from a different direction, if a saboteur of some kind wanted to cause that engine to fall off, would that be a very difficult thing to do?

PAUL CZYSZ: Not really because it's a very high-stressed part at full throttle. And if you knew what you were doing, you could do that very effectively and very simply.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Laird, what does this look to you just at first glance?

DOUGLAS LAIRD: At first glance it appears to me to be a major mechanical failure of the engine.

JIM LEHRER: What kind of mechanical failure is possible here, that would have this kind of result?

DOUGLAS LAIRD: The disintegration of the engine. My understanding is that the GE engines tend to come apart and blow to the back of the airplane. If you recall when the el-al freighter crashed into the apartment building in...outside of Skippel Airport a number of years ago, that engine actually separated from the aircraft and for a brief moment got ahead of the aircraft and then the aircraft crashed into its own engine, so some really bizarre things can happen.

JIM LEHRER: But what about the... we don't... The flight data recorder has been recovered. We don't know what's on it. They say there was no communication of a distress at least between the pilot and air traffic control. What does that tell you about what might have happened?

DOUGLAS LAIRD: I believe your other guests may be more qualified to answer that than I am, but my guess would be that they were so engrossed and busy in trying to save the aircraft there literally was not time to do anything but deal with the issue at hand.

JIM LEHRER: Is that how you read that, Mr. Dickinson, that they didn't have time? Well, go ahead. You answer the question.

LEE DICKINSON: There are a couple of things, Jim, you need to look at: One is to get a sequence of events, timing on when the airplane actually took off and when it actually crashed. Part of the problem that we're dealing with already or the safety board is dealing with already is it's been reported and the chairman just reported on your video that the flight data recorder had been roared. It's also been reported that the cockpit voice recorder has been recorded. My understanding is only one of the two have been found. I'm sorry, have been found. So what has to be, if indeed the CVR, the cockpit voice recorder has been recovered, that would give you information if everything is working properly on what the crew was actually doing, who they were talking to in the cockpit itself. If the flight data recorder had been recovered and that is able to be... Information is able to be obtained, that will give you information on what the airplane was actually doing, how the airplane was responding to the input by the pilots. But you need both of those or you'd like to have both of those to put a time line together.

JIM LEHRER: Now, Mr. Czysz, these planes are designed to fly on one engine, are they not?

PAUL CZYSZ: That's correct. In fact, Mr. Dickinson's comment about the airplane parts being separated in flight is really what makes this very suspicious, but yes the Airbus as all twin engine airplanes are designed to lose rotation on take off and safely continue a flight to come around and land again.

JIM LEHRER: Go ahead. I was just going to say when you use the word suspicious, explain that word. Why are you using that?

PAUL CZYSZ: I come from the airplane side and airplanes very seldom disassemble themselves of their own accord. Even when I was at McDonnell with combat airplanes they take a very large amount of damage before they start falling apart. So when I see a tail out of Jamaica Bay and an engine several blocks away I start asking myself, what was it that caused this airplane to start breaking apart?

JIM LEHRER: And what do you answer to yourself in this case?

PAUL CZYSZ: I would start doing what the NTSB is doing is some very careful investigations to look exactly what caused the separations to occur and what might be the sequence of events and did the engine come off first or did the tail come off first and see what actually they can put together, a time line.

JIM LEHRER: Mr. Laird, you see it slightly differently, right? You think this probably was a mechanical failure. You do not see anything suspicious thus far from your perspective.

DOUGLAS LAIRD: No I don't. I feel this was an international flight departing from JFK international flights undergo more stringent security requirements than domestic flights. So I would be very, very surprised if it were an act of sabotage.

JIM LEHRER: Why?

DOUGLAS LAIRD: Because of the additional security measures in place, not only for domestic flights today but also for international flights. This was an international flight.

JIM LEHRER: But in order to accomplish what happened to this plane today would require severe security breeches is what you're saying, right, based on what the security is today?

DOUGLAS LAIRD: If, in fact, it was an act of sabotage, it certainly would, yes.

JIM LEHRER: Of a monumental way.

DOUGLAS LAIRD: Monumental, yes.

JIM LEHRER: Would you agree with that, Professor Czysz?

PAUL CZYSZ: It all depends how you interpret the local thing. Some of the people in air transportation think a lot of the security is cosmetic. Others believe it has some increased security. I still think that it's possible to do sabotage and get by the current security system, which is basically focused on passengers not necessarily on the rest of the airport.

JIM LEHRER: You mean like airport workers and people who are around the airplane, mechanical people, folks like that?

PAUL CZYSZ: Yes.

JIM LEHRER: Yeah.

PAUL CZYSZ: The food handlers. The cabin crew. There's just lots of access people have to airplanes today.

JIM LEHRER: Well, Mr. Dickinson, the NTSB, based on all of this and what you know at this point, is this going to be an easy one or is this going to be a hard one to find out?

LEE DICKINSON: I think it's probably going to be somewhere in between. Part of the good news, if there is any good news at all at least from the investigative side is that a good portion of the airplane was indeed on the ground. It's not in the water. Hopefully the flight data recorder or the other, the cockpit voice recorder, both of them will be recovered. As I've mentioned to you before though, typically it's not just a single event that is going to cause an airplane to crash so I think although we're early on, we're probably going to find that there are a complex number or several items occurring at the same time that may have brought this airplane down.

JIM LEHRER: What do you think of Mr. Czysz's theory on this?

LEE DICKINSON: Well, I understand that he has his theory. I don't know really the full support for that. The information that I have seen and just the public information that's been released I have no belief or reason right now to suspect that it is a terrorist activity.

JIM LEHRER: But you don't have to subscribe to his theory. Let me put the question differently. What about his point that when things start falling off of airplanes, as many things did here, that makes you think that that's not a natural... I mean it's hard to put that on a mechanical failure is essentially what he's saying that the tail comes off, an engine comes off, other parts of the plane comes off.

LEE DICKINSON: He's right there. Keep in mind though that what we have to do is determine what happened first. For example, did something occur that then led to the engine coming apart or separating from the wing, if indeed that were true? If the engine came off first, that would force me to ask the question, well, what has happened to this? Has this airplane been maintained recently? Was some work being done on the engine? I'm not saying that that's what occurred. You need to ask those questions, develop a time line so you know this happened first, which is followed by something else. You need to be able to determine cause and effect.

JIM LEHRER: Sure. Also on the sabotage part of the investigation that the FBI will conduct in conjunction with the NTSB, there are all kinds of tests that can run on the metal to see if there was a bomb... Run us through some of the basics there as well.

LEE DICKINSON: Exactly. For example, the engine that again was mentioned earlier about it's in front of the gasoline station. One of the things that the investigators will do both from the NTSB and the FBI will be looking at the materials. For example, if it were a bomb, you can look at what type of residue, chemical residue, may be on the material itself. That would give you some indication.

JIM LEHRER: You can do that fairly quickly, can't you?

LEE DICKINSON: You can but you can't do it sit inning the gas station. You need to do something... Exactly.

JIM LEHRER: Right.

LEE DICKINSON: There are other things you want to look at to see, fractures, for example. The professor mentioned the 1979 the DCc-10. He's correct. That engine did come off. That was a maintenance-related issue. What the investigators will be able to do, the material specialists will be able to look at the fractured surfaces to see whether or not there's a problem, was it an overload problem? Was it fatigue? Was it something that was problematic with the material itself, those types of things?

JIM LEHRER: One final question for you, Professor Czysz, the fact that this plane was put online in 1988, is that considered old in the airline business?

PAUL CZYSZ: No, not really. If you're flying 747-200s, they're a lot older than that. I think the grandchildren of the original B-52 pilots are flying them now. So a 50-year-old airplane can still be quite safe.

JIM LEHRER: 1988, nobody should be concerned about that.

PAUL CZYSZ: No one should be concerned.

JIM LEHRER: Thank you all three, gentlemen.

FOCUS - ALLIANCE ADVANCES

JIM LEHRER: And now to story number two; the war in Afghanistan. First, a report on the rapid advance of the Northern Alliance. Kevin Dunn of Independent Television News reports.

KEVIN DUNN: Anti-Taliban forces of the Northern Alliance have made sweeping advances across Afghanistan. In just 72 hours, they appear to have taken control of as much as 40% of the country. Backed by American air power and guided on the ground by American and British Special Forces, the opposition troops have swept across lines where, for months, there was military stalemate. The forces of the Taliban appear to have pulled back deliberately to reorganize their defenses.

ABDULLAH ABDULLAH, Northern Alliance Foreign Minister: We started our operation on the front line north of Kabul around 11:30 in the morning today, and we have made advance as far as 15 kilometers towards Kabul.

KEVIN DUNN: The Northern Alliance advance, once it got underway, was swift and incisive. On Friday, Mazar-e Sharif fell into their hands. In the last 36 hours, the Alliance have taken Taloqan, their former headquarters; Pul-Khmri, an important town on the road to Kabul; Bamiyan, in the center of the country; and to the west, Qala-i-Nau. And today they may have taken Herat. So the map of Afghanistan now looks like this. The north of the country is increasingly under Alliance control -- the way now open for a push to the capital, Kabul. But southern Afghanistan, and the stronghold of Kandahar, is still in Taliban hands. Pictures from Abu Dhabi Television show antiaircraft fire directed at American warplanes over Kabul. But pentagon officials say Taliban resistance is very light. And there are reports of dozens of Taliban vehicles leaving the capital for the Southwest. The Arabic television also showed pictures of what it said were victims of the latest bombing raids. It is not clear if some of the injured are combatants. Aid agencies across the border in Uzbekistan hope the changing military landscape will allow them to use river barges to send in thousands of tons of food.

MICHAEL HUGGINS, World Food Program: We're still waiting for security clearance to find out if the other side is secure. If that's the case, then the barges will be going as soon as possible. There is a great, urgent need for food inside northern Afghanistan, and this food is urgently needed there.

KEVIN DUNN: The agencies plan to start the emergency shipments as soon as the humanitarian corridor into Afghanistan is secure.

JIM LEHRER: Now, a report from Julian Manyon of Independent Television News. He's covering the Alliance forces moving towards Kabul.

JULIAN MANYON: Tonight, the Northern Alliance is claiming to have broken through the Taliban defenses north of Kabul after a day of heavy fighting. The assault began with truckloads of troops racing forward, and armor the alliance had held in reserve moving towards the front. Next to the main road to Kabul, a dozen tanks and several hundred men were the spearhead of the thrust. All across the Shumali Plain, Alliance troops gathered to take part in the advance. At one position, men argued over whether they would join the attack. In the end, most of them did. The alliance used virtually every weapon in its arsenal, but American air power was still decisive. Several times, U.S. jets hammered key sections of the Taliban defenses. An American B-52 has just added its massive firepower to the Northern Alliance assault on the Taliban. All morning, the Northern Alliance troops, supported by their own tanks, have been trying to advance, but the Taliban have been firing back. In the last hour, we've seen numerous shells fired by the Taliban landing on alliance positions. Taliban fire struck an Alliance command post. At one point, their artillery threatened to bring their attack to a halt. But Northern Alliance shells were hitting the Taliban dug into the mountainside. And in mid afternoon, word came the defenders of two Taliban- held villages had surrendered. In the valley, a key Taliban base at Kalang Azru is still holding out, but the Alliance claim they had broken the enemy's front and had advanced more than five miles.

NEWSMAKER

JIM LEHRER: Next an interview with President Musharraf of Pakistan. Robert MacNeil conducted it earlier today in New York.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: Mr. President, thank you for joining us.

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: Thank you.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: From your own information sources can you describe what you understand is the situation on the ground in Afghanistan now? It seems to be changing hourly.

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: Well, I would like to just concentrate on the change that has taken place through the fall of Mazar-e Sharif. I think that's the change that has occurred. Otherwise, the situation is as it was, Taliban works with the Northern Alliance. But this change with the Northern Alliance captured in Mazar-e Sharif is significant from a political level and military point of view, a military point of view because it gives two airfields in the hands of the Northern Alliance and the coalition may I say... and from political point of view, this is the first reverse suffered by the Taliban. It can have further reverberation or reactions within -- negative fallout within the Taliban ranks in that those who are sitting on the fence may be - get encouraged to change sides and rise maybe against the Taliban government.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: The wire services are reporting that the Northern Alliance forces have entered Herat in the West and also that they've approached within just a few miles of Kabul, north of Kabul. Can you confirm that, and also that the Taliban appear to be leaving Kabul in large numbers by vehicles in the director of Kandahar? Those are the latest wire service reports.

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: These are the latest reports. I am getting them from the television, frankly. I would like to confirm them when I get back to Pakistan. But Herat is certainly a possibility because it's a stronghold of General Ishmael, who is a Tajik -- so therefore -- this is a Tajik area -- it wouldn't surprise me if he is active there. On the other side, convoys moving from Kabul or some progress being made by Northern Alliance towards Kabul is dangerous to an extent, dangerous because we even have -- are now getting information that there are certain atrocities being committed in Mazar-e Sharif. And that is exactly my apprehension that we have seen a lot of atrocities, a lot of killings between the various ethnic groups in Kabul after the Soviets left, and that is why we are of the opinion that Kabul should be maintained as a de-militarized city. That is very important.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: What kind of atrocities are you hearing reported in Mazar-e Sharif?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: Well, one heard some information that there are some revenge killings. Obviously revenge killings must be between the Taliban or the Pashtuns versus the Tajiks -- oblique Uzbeks I would say. This is dangerous, and it is dangerous because it will reinforce and strengthen the Pashtuns against the Northern Alliance.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: And make it less likely that Pashtun ethnics leave support of the Taliban or abandon the Taliban, which is what you're hoping will happen, is that correct?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: Yes, that can do it. I would say the scarlet thread -- in the military in operations we say there's a scarlet thread to every operation, and strategically one must understand what that scarlet thread is, and the scarlet thread here happens to be you have to have Pashtun acceptance of a change, because Northern Alliance is a composite of minority groups. The majority Pashtun is not visible, so this change has to take place within the ranks of Afghans. This needs to be facilitated. It needs to be encouraged, and I'm afraid any Northern Alliance -- undo successes or an undo over support of the Northern Alliance can conquer this strategic -

ROBERT MAC NEIL: Do you think the U.S. has over supported the Northern Alliance to date?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: I think I can get a clear understanding of realities on the ground.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: Yes.

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: I think maybe the strategy that is being followed I think is quite appropriate.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: Do you think the Taliban show signs of collapsing, or are they just tactically withdrawing to mount a stronger defense of Kabul or Kandahar?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: One can't say that. But I personally feel that with the knowledge that we have of the realities in the Taliban ranks, the homogeneity of any force is through communication infrastructure, through communication. I can't imagine that there is any kind of effective communication between the Central Command of Taliban going to the sector and within the sectors between the sector commanders and sub sector commanders. This is a big country.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: You mean because the U.S. bombing has destroyed that communication?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: Destroyed - line communication was non-existence. There could then have been wireless communication - I know that they don't have much wireless communication assets available, they are very primitive, and the mobile telephones, those are destroyed. The only thing left is satellite communication -- that may be - that can also be controlled. I'm reasonably sure there's been no homogeneity within the ranks of the Taliban fronts, the various sectors, the sub sectors. So I can't imagine that the linkages between the frontlines with their commands may be on motivation and their affiliation - allegiance to their command. Otherwise, they are independent sectors maybe not united through a common infrastructure. Maybe they are withdrawing to re-establish that.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: If the Northern Alliance are at the gates of Kabul, should the U.S. bombing stop now?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: Well, it depends where you are bombing and what you are bombing. The strategic objectives here - the strategic objectives are personalities really - individuals and groups when we are talking of Al-Qaida and Osama bin Laden and the Taliban government, these are personalities and which are the objectives, and attacking the fronts, that is the Taliban fronts you are attacking for a certain purpose - maybe the purpose was to get Mazar-e Sharif, and that was why you were bombing that area. Now it depends what the military strategy is -- the intermediate objectives are, and the bombing should shift accordingly.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: If a reporter from the Pakistani newspaper, "Dawn," can get to Osama bin Laden, why can't Pakistani intelligence find him or help the U.S. to find him? Why if a newspaper reporter gets taken there can't somebody else?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: There's a general suspicion on - it's surprising that maybe ISI is not contributing -

ROBERT MAC NEIL: ISI, which is your CIA.

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: -- to the intelligence, yes -- to the intelligence. Now it's not that simple. After all, then you send in people. They're on the other side; they know who they are, and they know what they have come for. We saw the fate of General Abdul Haq who was sent there - he went there to do something, and he was tortured. So it's not that easy that you send your operatives in and find locations. One is trying one's best for that - but if a reporter goes through contact - through some contact and, after all, Osama bin Laden's purpose is to project himself in some way and create some negative effects in the world, that maybe he would welcome receiving a reporter and projecting whatever his thoughts are.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: But your ISI, even if its reputation was exaggerated, must have known a lot about the cave structure in Afghanistan, where the caves -- the Taliban are - used are. Have they shared all that, all the knowledge you have, or are there lower ranks in the ISI who are still Taliban sympathizers?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: No, I don't think so at all. As far as cave and cave structures these are visible through the satellite photographs and all the surveillance devices, all the UAV's that are being flown, there's no doubt in my mind that every exact location is known. The question is, which ones are being occupied. Now when you are talking of human targets, it's very easy to change the cave. It's not that you occupy anything permanently so they are changeable. And secondly one can't even be very sure that they are in cave. Why wouldn't they be in a city in the center? That's the easiest place to hide - when you're in house and you're changing houses - so I really cannot be sure where they are, and I - let me assure you that as far as I know, it could be shared, and there's no doubt in this. And let me also say with some confidence that the coalition is very satisfied with the ISI performance and ISI cooperation.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: You mean Washington is satisfied?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: Yes.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: Is there any progress in the last few days on creating a successor regime of all ethnic groups for Afghanistan, a kind of provisional government to take over if the Taliban were removed from power, any progress?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: There is thinking on these lines. The two important events that have taken place is first of all the supreme council, which has been thought of as between King Zasha and the Northern Alliance - supreme council of 120 members -- the other important piece, of course, is Northern Alliance, which means Pashtun are missing in this. The other is the Peshawar convention; a convention held and called by Gilani, who's a Pashtun. This was a multiethnic convention. A lot of people attended from all ethnic groups. These are two important events, which have taken place. Now there's an idea of maybe developing a nexus between these two, which will be multiethnic. Then the further ideas on developing the political strategy are taking place. I think there's progress on the theoretical crystallization of the political strategy, which needs to be homegrown, may I say, which needs to be accepted by the Taliban and homegrown by the - by the Pashtun - by the Afghans themselves.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: This process, which has been underway for some weeks now, if not longer, is taking - may take a lot longer. In the meantime you in Washington don't want the Northern Alliance to enter Kabul until there's some entity in place to replace the Taliban, that's correct, isn't it?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: Yes.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: Can the Northern Alliance, all its various factions, can it be restrained from entering if they're so close now?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: I think they can be, because I think this is a very disparate group. There is no cohesion in that force also because Tajiks and Uzbeks are not such great friends; they have been fighting each other, so, therefore, and they depend on total support of the coalition force, I must say, therefore, any withdrawal of the support would definitely weaken them, and I don't think that they would have the potential of taking Kabul.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: You asked for visible signs from the United States, of visible evidence of support for Pakistan, and you got a promise -- the U.S. said -- of a $900 million package from - of aid in various forms. Is that going to give you, President Musharraf, the support and credibility you need at home to carry on this policy, which is unpopular with some Pakistanis?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: Well, let me say that there are three areas where we are needing support. One is against our debt. So we are talking of debt write-off, or at least a major debt relief, a major debt relief. The second is to cover our expenses and the losses that we are incurring because of Afghan operation in the form of fiscal support. The third is to cover the losses that our exports are going to suffer again - a hit that the economy is going to suffer -- to give us additional market access like the European Union in the form of reduction of duties and increase in quotas. This is what we are looking at in its entirety and this is what we are discussing.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: You're still discussing it with the U.S.?

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: I think we haven't fully crystallized the assistance.

ROBERT MAC NEIL: All right. Well, President Musharraf, thank you very much for joining us.

PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF: Thank you very much.

GWEN IFILL: For more on the latest developments in Afghanistan, we turn to Haron Amin, a spokesman for the Northern Alliance, and its representative to Washington; and military analyst John Pike. He's founder and director of globalsecurity.Org, a nonpartisan research group focusing on emerging security threats.

President Musharraf didn't seem to think that the cities which the Northern Alliance has gained, Mazar-e Sharif and Herat and the others, was as much of a victory as the Northern Alliance has been claiming. What's your response to what the president had to say?

HARON AMIN: Well, first of all, I think that the rhetoric of the President clearly showed that international pressure can go very far. Certainly it's a regression from the very sentiments that President Musharraf was expressing as of last year, the pro Taliban policy. And it's funny it's so paradoxical that he couldn't confirm the fall of Herat but yet knew of fighting among forces in Mazar-e Sharif so unless he got back to Islamabad. The fact of the matter is that our forces have taken all these provinces including Herat. So right now we are virtually in effective control of more than 50% of Afghanistan. And the only thing that stands in the way is Kabul. We've made it very clear since the very start that we have no intention of going into Kabul unless a clear-cut time-bound political road map is in place. Today we were pleased to see that 6 plus 2....

GWEN IFILL: That being.

HARON AMIN: The six neighboring states of Afghanistan plus the United States and Russia. And they were looking into that. I think the United Nations right now is getting more involved in terms of getting the gathering of council of national unity which was formally supposed to meet. That is going to meet hopefully soon.

GWEN IFILL: John Pike, what is your sense of the military gains, which have been made in the past few days and do you agree or disagree with President Musharraf's analysis of it?

JOHN PIKE: Well, I think we're going to have to wait for the dust to settle because these have been really quite remarkable battlefield gains apparently. Two weeks ago, ten days ago everybody was complaining about the war is stalled that we're not making any progress. Suddenly within the last 72 hours, we appear to have a more radical redrawing of the political map in Afghanistan than at any point over the last decade. How much of that is actually a consolidated gain, the extent to which the Northern Alliance is really achieved effective control over all of these provinces as opposed to simply having a few troops in a few towns I think it's too soon to say.

GWEN IFILL: How do you measure that and how do you measure whether this is actual control, which has been gained or whether these are Taliban defections for instance?

JOHN PIKE: That's clearly what people will be looking for over the next several days because some of these cities really had not been under heavy American air attack, had not been under heavy ground attack, and all of a sudden it looks like they've gone over to the other side. So it's going to be very interesting over the next couple of days to understand exactly the process by which this territory has changed hands and the extent to which we just have a town that's changed hands or an entire province.

GWEN IFILL: And over the next couple of days one of the things we're also good going to be watching, Mr. Amin, is whether the Northern Alliance can hold its troops to your word basically that you will not enter Kabul. How do you do that? There's reports, some kind of the unruly nature of this war, and you heard President Musharraf talk about atrocities, which have been committed along the way. Respond to the atrocities allegations but also how do you stop your troops from going into Kabul?

HARON AMIN: If there's anyone in the world that can say that the Taliban have not committed atrocities that would be mistaken. The Taliban have done the kind of atrocities that humanity hasn't seen for the last couple hundred of years.

GWEN IFILL: So an eye for an eye is okay?

HARON AMIN: No. Certainly not. The fact of the matter is certain acts of reprisal in local bases should not implicate the united front. That's number one. Secondly the resolve of the united front is not to go into Kabul and unless a political road map is in place. Certainly in other parts of Afghanistan what we have seen right now is in Mazar women for the first time have been able to go out of their houses. People in Herat women have been able to venture outside their houses and at their own desire without any sort of problem on the street whatsoever. Men, some of them have ventured into barbershops to get the kind of haircut that they want, so on and so forth. That sort of normalcy is returning back to Afghanistan. People of Afghanistan are seeing opportunity as an opportunity for liberation of Afghanistan hopefully being able to realize....

GWEN IFILL: If they're so excited about the potential of this what's to stop them from going into the capital before the political process is ready for them to?

HARON AMIN: I think the idea is we want to act in line with the international community's desire. I think there is a lot of sentiments both at the United Nations and other quarters saying that in order not to antagonize the Pashtuns, in order not to do this or that that the united front should aim to stop short of Kabul. Out of respect for that I think it's the right thing to do. And we're welcome international cooperation in this context. We welcome deployment of international forces from Islamic countries or others to come and look into this security of Kabul and others. So that we have at least something in place, and that will alleviate the concerns of everybody at large as well as the people of Afghanistan.

GWEN IFILL: John Pike, do what appear to be pretty remarkable military gains and rapid military gains in the last few days bring us any closer to what our stated goal, that is, the United States' stated goal, was in going into Afghanistan which is demolishing al-Qaida and capturing Osama bin Laden.

JOHN PIKE: That's not clear. Certainly it's going to make it somewhat easier for the United States to operate in territories controlled by the Northern Alliance, hopefully a little less worried about Taliban presence there. That goes back to my question though, the extent to which the Northern Alliance has simply put troops in a particular city versus the extent to which the Taliban has completely withdrawn from a province. Part of the problem I think we have right now is that we've seen a lot of the northern front war on television. We really have almost no idea of what American military operations, special operations units, central intelligence agency has been doing in the southern part of Afghanistan. As President Musharraf pointed out it's not clear whether the people were looking for al-Qaida, not clear whether they're hiding in caves, hiding downtown. Without knowing that I think it's very difficult to know whether the developments over the weekend have brought us much closer to eliminating the al-Qaida threat or whether it's basically just a side show and the main war is still going on in the South.

GWEN IFILL: And the threat continues in places like Kandahar. Is there a next step once you have... Assuming for a moment that you have the northern cities secured legitimately secured, a next step for moving on past Kabul to the southern strongholds?

HARON AMIN: The fact of the matter is that in order for the hunt down of Osama bin Laden to occur and the destruction of al-Qaida, one needed the roll back off the Taliban. That has been effectively achieved in half of Afghanistan. Certainly expansion of these territories would go towards yielding that ultimate objective. That's in the making. We're contacting our people in southern parts of Afghanistan that have been disarmed in the past. I think that the uprising that will soon occur by a lot of Pashtuns who have been persecuted at the hands of the Taliban that's going to further contribute to that. I think ultimately with the effective control of all of Afghanistan the political road map in place I think the hunt down of Osama bin Laden will be much easier.

GWEN IFILL: Do you think that the United States and the Northern Alliance share the same goal here in hunting down Osama bin Laden or is the Northern Alliance's goals more of a political one of gaining control over the Taliban, Osama bin Laden aside?

HARON AMIN: We had been fighting Osama bin Laden and terrorists in Afghanistan long before anybody else engaged us. Two days prior to the incidents of September 11 our greatest leader Masood was assassinated by two Arabs posing as journalists guided by Osama bin Laden. Certainly we have a common objective here. So we're going about this common objective as well as eradication from Afghanistan of the ideological anthrax which with which the Taliban were equipped from across the boarder. That is the objective. So I think in the end both objectives will be achieved.

GWEN IFILL: And how important is it that this fallback government, this political structure be in place before the next military steps are taken especially moving into Kabul?

JOHN PIKE: Well, certainly if you're talking about one track of the American policy to replace the Taliban, obviously that's going to be critical. The other track, however, of eradicating al-Qaida, it's not clear the extent to which really depends on the complexion of the government in Kabul or whether there's a government there at all. I think it really depends on the extent to which American forces can locate al-Qaida operatives, can locate their hide areas, and can kill, capture them and begin to roll up that organization. Who controls Kabul? Who controls the countryside I think is secondary to the question of whether the United States can find bin Laden and his organization.

GWEN IFILL: John Pike, Haron Amin, thank you both very much.

SECOND LOOK - HERE IS NEW YORK

JIM LEHRER: Finally tonight, an encore presentation of a story we first ran October 23, and many of you viewers asked that we broadcast again. It's about one of the many ways people in New York responded to the World Trade Center tragedy. Ray Suarez reports.

RAY SUAREZ: In an empty storefront on Prince Street in the Soho neighborhood of lower Manhattan-- the center of the New York art world-- four friends came together to make their own unique contribution to memory and recovery. A writer, Michael Shulan, along with photojournalist Gilles Peress, and photo editor Alice Rose George, and Charles Taub of the School of Visual Arts, started putting photographs of the disaster and its aftermath on the walls. Within days, people crowded into the exhibition called "Here is New York: Images from the Front Line of History."

MAN: If you don't mind, I may not end up taking it.

WOMAN: Right. No, that's fine.

RAY SUAREZ: To date, more than 3,000 images have been donated by more than 500 professional and amateur photographers, and an average of 500 prints a day are being sold for $25, the proceeds going to the Children's Aid Society 9-11 Fund.

ALICE ROSE GEORGE, Exhibit Organizer: All these people who have had to take pictures in order to, I think, verify that it really happened and to deal with something that seemed unimaginable before. And I think it was a way to say this is real, this really did happen. And it will be used as a tool in memory, but it's also used as a means of overcoming grief. People come down here, they look at the pictures, and it's a way of dealing with it.

RAY SUAREZ: Now, a closer look at the exhibit accompanied by music from the singer Enya. (Playing Enya's "A Day Without Rain")

FLORIDA RECOUNT

JIM LEHRER: In the other news of the day, a review of all the disputed ballots in Florida found the state and the 2000 presidential election could have gone either way. Eight news organizations published the review today. They found if the U.S. Supreme Court had allowed partial recounts, as Vice President Gore wanted, George W. Bush still would've won by as many as 493 votes. In a full statewide recount, Mr. Gore would've won by up to 171 votes. Officially, President Bush carried the state by 537 votes.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: And again, today's two top stories. An American Airlines jetliner crashed just after takeoff in queens, New York. All 260 people onboard were killed. Federal safety officials said thus far, it appeared to be an accident, not terrorism. And in Afghanistan, the opposition Northern Alliance captured the western city of Herat and closed in on the capital city, Kabul. We'll see you online and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.