The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MacNeil: Good evening. I'm Robert MacNeil in New York.

MS. WOODRUFF: And I'm Judy Woodruff in Washington. After the News Summary, we focus entirely tonight on the presidential election, first with another in our series of fact or fiction discussions. Representatives of the Bush and the Clinton campaign defend some charges they've made about each other. Then problems for the Republicans in what used to be in safe territory, a report from Kansas, and finally analysis of this and the rest of the week's political news from our team of Gergen and Shields. NEWS SUMMARY

MS. WOODRUFF: There was new speculation today about whether Ross Perot would re-enter the presidential race. The Los Angeles Times reported that he plans to announce his candidacy Monday on CNN's Larry King Live Show. Two Perot associates, however, said he had not made a decision yet. Meanwhile, the Clinton and Bush campaigns are sending representatives to meet with Perot and his state leaders in Dallas on Monday. On the campaign trail today, Gov. Clinton was asked whether Perot's re-entry would hurt his chances for election. Clinton said he did not know what effect it would have and that he would continue to concentrate on his own race. President Bush was asked what effect Perot would have during an interview on Chicago radio station WBBN.

PRESIDENT BUSH: It's awfully hard to anticipate what would happen. We have tried to appeal to the Perot voters. Indeed, many of the Perot people have come over to us. But I think it's impossible to tell right now.

MS. WOODRUFF: Also in that interview, Mr. Bush again denied that he had been actively involved in the Iran-contra operation when he was vice president. He said allegations to that effect made by retired General Richard Secord were all speculation. Secord was a key player in the Iran-contra scandal. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Basketball star Irvin "Magic" Johnson resigned today from the National Commission on AIDS. He said in a letter faxed to the President he could not longer serve on a panel that, in his words, "is so utterly ignored by your administration." Johnson said the epidemic cannot be fought with "lip service and photo opportunities." President Bush appointed him to the commission in January, after Johnson revealed he had contracted the AIDS virus. A Bush campaign spokeswoman took issue with Johnson's criticism, saying the administration had more than doubled AIDS research funding during the President's term.

MS. WOODRUFF: Hurricane Andrew destroyed what would have been a strong gain in the personal income of Americans in August. The Commerce Department reported today that income fell .5 percent. If not for the hurricane, income would have been up nearly 3/4 percent. In a separate report, factory orders for durable goods were off .1 percent in August, the third drop in four months. Forty-two hundred General Motors workers walked off their job today at a Lansing, Michigan plant. The strike over work rules shut down production at a second plant. Talks with the union broke off last night, but GM said they will resume tomorrow.

MR. MacNeil: A Titan 3 rocket blasted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida this morning on its way to Mars. It is NASA's first trip to the red planet in 17 years and will take 11 months to get there. The Mars Observer will travel 450 million miles and will record weather conditions, look for evidence of life, and scout for places where robots could land in the future. The government today ordered the nation's airlines to adopt new procedures to remove ice and snow from the wings of planes. The new requirement comes after the crash of a US Air flight at New York's LaGuardia Airport last March. Twenty-seven people died in the accident. Federal officials believe ice on the wings was the cause. The aircraft had been de- iced twice at the gate, but then waited on the runway for half an hour before permission to take off.

MS. WOODRUFF: Some of the first Japanese troops to be sent overseas since World War II arrived in Cambodia today. They are there to take part in a United Nations peacekeeping operation in the country. Many Southeast Asian nations have expressed concern that the deployment could cause a resurgence of Japanese militarism in the region. It was approved only after heated debate in Japan. That's it for the News Summary. Just ahead, fact or fiction, Kansas voters, and Gergen & Shields. FOCUS - FACT OR FICTION?

MR. MacNeil: It's all politics on the NewsHour tonight. We begin with fact or fiction, our occasional efforts to separate the truth from the tall tales in the presidential campaign. The Democrats charge that the new Republican TV ad distorts Gov. Clinton's record on taxes. The Republicans say the Democrats are lying in a radio ad about what the President will do to benefits for the elderly and disabled veterans. Jim Cicconi is the senior issues adviser to the Bush/Quayle campaign. He's in Washington. And in Little Rock, communications director George Stephanopoulos is speaking for Clinton/Gore. We start with the Bush campaign's complaint against the Democrats. Here is the radio ad playing in targeted states around the country.

COMMERCIAL ANNOUNCER: For over three years, the Republicans refused to admit the country was in a recession. Now the facts are just too much to ignore. Over the last year, the incomes of average Americans have failed to even keep up with inflation. Just last month, 167,000 private sector jobs were lost. Over two million more people today are living in poverty. Now, with an election around the corner, the Republicans claim they have a plan for the economy. But what are the Republicans really planning? More of the same. Yet another capital gains tax break for the rich. And what would the Republicans cut? They're proposing sweeping cuts in Medicare, slashing benefits for nearly 30 million older Americans, and virtually eliminating all compensation for over 1 million disabled veterans. It's amazing. When the Republicans do nothing about the economy, it's bad. When they try to do something about it, it's even worse. Paid for by the Democratic National Committee.

MR. MacNeil: Jim Cicconi, what is your -- what is distorted in that, or wrong in that ad?

MR. CICCONI: I think that there's a number of things, but the thing we really wanted to focus on tonight is what we consider to be lies designed to scare old people and veterans, specifically the allegation that the President is planning massive cuts in Medicare benefits and in -- and in other benefits for senior citizens, and the implication that he's also seeking to cut veteran's benefits.

MR. MacNeil: Well, is -- to what degree is that -- let's take what they say is sweeping cuts in Medicare, slashing benefits for nearly 30 million older Americans. What precisely is wrong with that statement?

MR. CICCONI: Well, the fact is that the President has never proposed any cuts in Medicare benefits for senior citizens. In fact, when he laid out his health care reform package, the specifically said, we will not -- repeat not -- cut benefits. The same thing is true in the case of veterans. The fact that is that under George Bush veterans' benefits have actually expanded, including a large new package of benefits for veterans of Desert Storm.

MR. MacNeil: Okay. Well, let's take these one at a time. And, George Stephanopoulos, how does your party justify that charge on Medicare? You heard what Mr. Cicconi just said?

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, it's very simple. We take the President at his word. I have a document here. It's called the Mid-session Review, the President's Budget and Economic Growth Agenda. The President's held up this document on several stops along the campaign, including on August 6th, at the American Legislative Exchange Council. And he said, and I quote, he held it up and said, "This document says exactly and specifically how I intend to cut the deficit, exactly and specifically how I intend to cut the deficit. This document contains $300 billion, 294 to 300 billion dollars in spending cuts. Those are the spending cuts that the President called for in his Detroit Economic Club speech just a couple of weeks ago. And inside the document includes a cut in Medicare benefits that would mean a cut of $2,000 over five years for 30 million Medicare beneficiaries. Now, I know what Jim is going to say. He's saying the President never exactly proposed this, this is just an option. But let me give an example. If I were to owe you $300 -- the President's saying he wants to cut $300 billion from the deficit -- and I gave you a briefcase and opened it up, and in it there were $238 billion -- and said, here's my briefcase, this -- but these are just options, you'd say, wait a second, everything that's in that briefcase you owe me, but then you still have to come up with close to $60 billion more. That's what the President's done in this document. He says it calls for $294 billion in cuts, but there are only $238 billion in options. So we say, quite rightly, that each option must be considered as a cut. And then you still have to come up with more cuts to -- to make up the deficit. On page 414 of the document is the -- is the cut in veteran's benefits --

MR. MacNeil: Let's come -- let's leave that --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: -- that Jim complains about.

MR. MacNeil: Let's leave that separately for a moment. Let's just deal with the Medicare case. Mr. Cicconi, why is that not good justification for the charge?

MR. CICCONI: Well, again, citing the document, itself, one has to understand first of all that the thing George is raising talks about the President's proposal for an overall cap on the growth of entitlement programs. He would be capping that at the level of inflation, plus the growth in population, to be able to take care of new beneficiaries. He specifically said that no one's benefits would be cut under this formulation. Naturally, you have to save other costs. But what George is citing is, in fact, an appendix to this document that provides a list of examples of options that are currently before the Congress from a variety of sources that lay out the -- a number of different scenarios for achieving these cuts. And, again, I know George has got his copy, but let me give you the fine print here on Page 414 on veteran's benefits. The fact is that the cut George has mentioned is specifically listed as an option put forward by the Congressional Budget Office. And there it is right there. And the fact is there are other options put forward by Congressman Panetta. Now, no one would allege that Leon Panetta, the Democratic chairman of the Budget Committee, is speaking for George Bush in terms of budget cuts.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Jim, wait a second.

MR. MacNeil: But Mr. --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me get in there, Robin.

MR. MacNeil: All right.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: They, first of all, marked that option with a little "a" in a circle that says this is a selected option, this is a selected option of the administration, plus it is duplicitous in the extreme for the President to go out on the campaign trail, brag that he's the one who's for cutting deficit, brag that he is the one for cutting spending, to hold up this huge document and say this proves that I'm for cutting spending, it says exactly and specifically how to cut the deficit, and then when you go to the details, say, oh, I don't mean that. He wants the credit for bringing down the deficit, but not the responsibility for the actual cuts that are contained in the document.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Cicconi.

MR. CICCONI: Well, the fact is, again, that these options were from among many more, and they were -- they were selected --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: But the President selected them.

MR. CICCONI: -- simply to be illustrative.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Did the President select them or not?

MR. MacNeil: Let him talk while he's talking.

MR. CICCONI: It's very clear in the document and to anyone that reads it, and certainly the way these things are listed here again that these are options that are designed to illustrate the point that the cuts are there and that the Congress has a variety of options from which they can choose. The fact is, again, it's very clear in this document, the President has said very clearly, the budget director has said very clearly, there is no endorsement of these proposals. In fact, they are not listed as the President's proposals. If we were endorsing them, it would have been very easy for us to list these as the President's proposals. In point of fact, they're listed as items identified by the Congressional Budget Office, by Congressman Panetta and other sources. So for George to allege again that this is some secret plan by George Bush when he clearly identifies these as options that come from Democrats or from the Bipartisan Budget Office --

MR. MacNeil: Well, then why would he hold the booklet up on the campaign trail if these are not as Mr. Stephanopoulos says?

MR. CICCONI: Well, what he's talking about is the text of the document, not the appendix. In point of fact, he was talking about the need to get entitlements under control. And this comes to a larger point, and that is, which candidate is more serious about cutting the deficit. The fact of the matter is that George Bush has been willing to go out there and say we need to cap the growth of entitlement spending in this country, that we can maintain current benefits and still get at the cost of the entitlements.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, I think you just made my point. The President wants to take credit for bringing down the deficit, but when you press him on the details, he runs away faster than the Road Runner. I mean, right here you just said two things. No. 1, these are just options. All of the options in this book and the appendix when added up only add up to $238 billion. The President has claimed credit for over $290 billion in deficit reduction. You simply cannot have it both ways -- either he's for the deficit reduction or -- and the spending cuts.

MR. MacNeil: What is the bottom line here, Mr. Cicconi? Is the - - is the President saying, are you saying to people who are old enough to qualify for Medicare, if the President is re-elected, there will be no reductions in their benefits?

MR. CICCONI: The President said very clearly that he has no intention of reducing benefits. He's said very clearly when he laid out the cap proposal on entitlement spending that this can be done without affecting benefits, and he intends to do that. When he laid out this health care plan, he said we will not, repeat not, cut benefits. Let me make another point if I can. This is part of a pattern on -- on Gov. Clinton's part, and that is designed to scare groups like old people and veterans who he seems to be particularly interested in appealing to, given his draft problems, and the fact that he's attempting to scare people regarding Social Security. Now, that's not in their ad. But the fact is that Gov. Clinton went before several audiences of older Americans and claimed that the President had a secret plan to gut Social Security.

MR. MacNeil: Let's stick --

MR. CICCONI: And in point of fact, it's Gov. Clinton who was out there in 1986 saying that he could absolutely go along with plans to tax benefits and cut benefits.

MR. MacNeil: Let's stick to what's in the ad, gentlemen, so that we can keep a focus on this. Are you saying both on Medicare and on veteran's benefits that the -- the facts that the Democrats allege in this ad are just totally untrue and that George Bush guarantees no reductions in those benefits as part of his deficit cutting efforts if he's re-elected, Mr. Cicconi?

MR. CICCONI: Yes. I've read the President's statement. He said, we will not, repeat not, cut benefits.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, let me just -- I mean, I have to ask a couple of questions here. So you're saying when the President held up this book on August 6th to the American Legislative Exchange Council and said this is exactly and specifically how to bring down the deficit, then he wasn't telling the truth?

MR. CICCONI: The President --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: This is not exactly specifically --

MR. CICCONI: That is not what I'm saying.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: -- an attempt to bring down the deficit.

MR. CICCONI: The President has said very clearly there are savings that can be achieved in entitlement programs.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: So what -- how would he achieve that?

MR. CICCONI: We have to get the growth in entitlements under control. There are a variety of ways you can do that.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Like what?

MR. CICCONI: And there are a lot of proposals out there.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Like what?

MR. CICCONI: Well --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Like the ones included in this book that the President endorsed exactly and specifically on August 6th. It doesn't make any sense.

MR. CICCONI: They are not endorsed exactly and specifically in the book. I've shown you the page from the book which you keep citing. In point of fact, there are things that the President has before the Congress right now. For example, reforming the way that hospitals are reimbursed from their purchase of equipment, this alone would save $1/2 billion. That is currently under mandatory spending.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Okay. That's $297 1/2 billion to go.

MR. CICCONI: The fact is I haven't heard a credible plan from Gov. Clinton at all for dealing with the deficit. I think that for George to come on here on behalf of Gov. Clinton and talk about saving -- saving money and entitlements when Gov. Clinton's not been willing to address the deficit, himself, he has laid out -- I am not aware of any proposals in dealing with entitlements. There is no reputable economist that feels that you can really get at the deficit problem seriously without somehow getting some control over entitlement --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: What he's telling us tonight is the President isn't willing to seriously go after entitlements, because when you look at any single detail, you say the President is not for that. It's not credible. The President is either for entitlement cuts or not for spending cuts. Which one is it?

MR. CICCONI: The President has $132 billion before the Congress right now in proposed mandatory spending cuts. If Gov. Clinton's willing to endorse that tomorrow, we'd be happy to have his support. The fact is Gov. Clinton has proposed nothing in the area of deficit reduction, nothing in the area of entitlement cuts, which is the biggest part of it. The Democratic chairman of the Budget Committee, Leon Panetta, himself, said when Gov. Clinton laid out his budget plan that he simply wasn't serious. He didn't confront the tough decisions on the deficit on entitlements.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: What you're telling us today is that you and the President are not confronting the tough decisions.

MR. CICCONI: George, I still haven't heard --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: You take credit but not take responsibility.

MR. CICCONI: -- a word --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Gov. Clinton's plan cuts the deficit in half over the next four years. It puts emphasis on economic growth. It invests in jobs and education and still brings the deficit down. George Bush has doubled the deficit in the last four years. It's quadrupled under Reagan and Bush. You have no credibility on the deficit and you're not taking responsibility now.

MR. CICCONI: Could I get a word in here?

MR. MacNeil: Yes, you can, right now.

MR. CICCONI: Gov. Clinton's plan was described the Committee for Responsible Budget, which is a bipartisan group, as having numbers that simply do not add up. The fact is there's no credible deficit reduction in that. Even Leon Panetta, the Democratic chairman of the Budget Committee, has said that. I still haven't heard George say a single word about what Gov. Clinton would actually do to reduce the deficit besides throwing out numbers that don't add up.

MR. MacNeil: Gentlemen, you're back and forth on that. Let's just come back to this ad. Does it mean that in his -- also in his health reform proposals, that the President is going to make no change in Medicare financing that will affect the -- the people over 65 who will benefit from Medicare?

MR. CICCONI: The President has proposed to provide tax credits and deductions for people in need of health insurance coverage. Obviously, if their health insurance needs are taken care of through that, then that may well affect the Medicare reimbursement of hospitals, for example, for indigent care, things of this nature. So there will be some compensating savings in those areas.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Stephanopoulos.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, it's -- again, we don't have any details. The President wants credit, but doesn't want to take responsibility. Every time you go a detail, he says, I'm not for that. Instead, you get all this bureaucratic language about bringing down spending. They want -- this is exactly what they want to do. They want to tell -- say, we're for lower spending, we're for lower taxes, and then escape responsibility for the details. Jim mentioned there's $132 billion in additional spending cuts. The President spent that about four times in the last week alone. The 1 percent across-the-board tax cut he promised cost him the entire $130 billion. He offered another $20 billion package in tax incentives this week, said it would come out of the $130 billion. He offered us $30 billion through a choice program, said it would come out of $130 billion. He offered a $10 billion training program, said it would come out of $130 billion.

MR. CICCONI: The fact --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: He spends and spends and spends.

MR. CICCONI: The fact is that George is using phony figures and double counting items here to come up with the type of things he's been putting out recently. The fact is that when you analyze Gov. Clinton's budget plan, he's got 150 billion in taxes in it, which would be the largest tax increase in the history of this nation, $220 billion in spending programs that he admits, and another 200 for his health care plan that he doesn't even compensate for somehow or fund in any way, a number of other measures which really have to be funded in some fashion, which he doesn't compensate for. So to argue that somehow Gov. Clinton, of all people, has some credibility on deficit reduction when he hasn't put forward a coherent plan that even the Democratic chairman of the Budget Committee feels is coherent, to reduce the deficit --

MR. MacNeil: Let's come back to the bottom line on this ad. Mr. Cicconi, you say the two claims the Democrats make in the ad are lies. Is that the word you used? They are lies.

MR. CICCONI: Yes, that's the word I used.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Stephanopoulos, you say they are the truth.

MR. CICCONI: I say if they are lies, they're the President's lies.

MR. MacNeil: Well, we'll move on now to the Clinton campaign's complaint against the Republicans. This television ad began airing this week in several battleground states.

COMMERCIAL ANNOUNCER: To pay for his increased spending in Arkansas, Bill Clinton raised state taxes, and not just on the rich. He increased the sales tax by 33 percent, imposed a mobile home tax, increased the beer tax. He assessed a tourism tax, created a cable TV tax, supported a tax on groceries. And now, if elected President, Bill Clinton has promised to increase government spending $220 billion. Guess where he'll get the money.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Stephanopoulos, what's wrong with that ad?

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, basically, it takes a lot of isolated facts and tries to create an impression which is wrong, that Gov. Clinton is from a high tax state and a high spending state. And secondly, it's hypocritical in the extreme. Let me just take the two charges separately. No. 1, they talk about to pay for his increased spending, when they know that Gov. Clinton -- Arkansas under Gov. Clinton has the second lowest state and local expenditures in the nation. Let me repeat that -- the second lowest state and local expenditures -- state and local spending in the country. They also talk about taxes, when they also know that Arkansas has the second lowest state and local tax burden in the country. Again, the second lowest state and local tax burden in the entire country. Arkansas by every measure has lower taxes than the national average. They know that. No. 1, they talk about specific individual taxes, a beer tax, a tourism tax, a travel tax. All of use taxes were, indeed, raised over a period of 12 years by Gov. Clinton in order to pay for education. But let's look at what George Bush has done. In 1990, George Bush doubled the beer tax. In the 1990 budget agreement, George Bush increased travel and tourism fees and increased the airline ticket tax. In 1990, George Bush increased the telephone tax. Everything that George Bush criticizes Gov. Clinton for in this ad he's done himself over and over and over again in spades.

MR. MacNeil: So, Mr. Cicconi, what's your reply to that?

MR. CICCONI: Well, first of all, I notice George didn't challenge actually any of the figures or the facts in the -- in the ad. I think he's challenging the overall impression. I'd argue that the overall impression is just as true as the facts are true. The fact is that Arkansas state spending under Bill Clinton has doubled since 1983. Arkansas's sales taxes are up 50 percent. In fact, that was the one error I think we'd admit to in the ad. We said 33 percent in the ad. And CNN corrected us and said sales taxes in Arkansas are really up 50 percent. That's a correction we'd be happy to take. The Arkansas gas tax, again, it's more than doubled. Arkansas is even one of the few states that taxes groceries. And Bill Clinton has fought every attempt to exempt groceries. Until 1987, they even taxed food stamps in the state of Arkansas, until they were forced to stop by the federal government. And, in fact, Bill Clinton opposed that and said that if the federal government ever lifted the ban, he'd reimpose the tax.

MR. MacNeil: Let me just ask -- let me ask Mr. Stephanopoulos this. What do you say to the point that none of these facts are wrong, you're just complaining about the wrong impression being given.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: I concede that the exact facts are true, but then I'll just ask Jim. Jim, did President Bush sign a law raising the beer tax?

MR. CICCONI: George, there's a big difference between --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Yes or no?

MR. CICCONI: -- proposing --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Yes or no?

MR. CICCONI: You're not -- you're not an inquisitor here now. Now, let me answer the question, okay? I mean, the fact is that the proposal that you cited was proposed by Gov. Clinton's buddies in the Congress, the Democratic -- Democratic members of Congress.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Yes or no?

MR. CICCONI: The President went forward with that proposal only because those same Democrats held hostage real deficit reduction and real domestic spending controls that were needed. So he went --

MR. MacNeil: But Mr. Stephanopoulos --

MR. CICCONI: -- along with it only for that reason. The fact is that Gov. Clinton proposed these taxes. He laid them forward. Let me -- let me also challenge one -- one other point you made here. You keep citing the fact that Arkansas somehow has the second lowest tax burden in the nation. The fact is this is another phony figure from the Clinton campaign. I noticed George was very careful to cite that this was state and local taxes. Okay. Now, Gov. Clinton isn't -- isn't really responsible for or have any control over local taxes. And if you drop those out and just consider them on the state level, the fact is Arkansas isn't second lowest in the nation, it's right in the middle, it's twenty-fifth. And the fact is that last year Gov. Clinton signed the largest tax increase in the state's history. And that 25th ranking is in 1990. So that ranking is probably going to go --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Last year, Gov. Clinton also signed a bill which lowered taxes for 42 percent of Arkansans, 374 Arkansans. Now let's just go back to the point.

MR. CICCONI: Now, hold on. I can't -- I can't let you get away with that.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Hold on a second. You are charging that Gov. Clinton is doing things that George Bush is somehow against, or that George Bush has been somehow opposed.

MR. MacNeil: Let me break in here for a moment. Is that your complaint, Mr. Stephanopoulos? All these things are true, but George Bush did them to you, or did something like it, and, therefore, he shouldn't be complaining about it, is that your point?

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, there's a second point as well. It's a highly misleading impression, because, as I said, no matter what Jim says, these are bureau census documents. Arkansas has the second lowest state and local tax burden in the country, and the second lowest state and local spending in the country, and all of its taxes are below the national average as pointed out in USA Today just two days ago. And Jim knows that. But my basic -- secondly, my basic point --

MR. CICCONI: Again, you're deciding state and local taxes.

MR. MacNeil: Let's --

MR. CICCONI: Deciding state and local taxes.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Fine.

MR. CICCONI: We're talking about state taxes.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: I'm talking about what people --

MR. CICCONI: Arkansas ranks --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: -- have to pay in taxes, and that's what they have to pay in taxes. Secondly, Robin, to answer your point, I am making the point that President Bush will say anything in the middle of an election no matter how hypocritical. And I just have to challenge him again. On every single point that he talks about individual taxes raised, George Bush has done exactly -- exactly - -

MR. MacNeil: But that doesn't make --

MR. CICCONI: Look, George --

MR. MacNeil: Excuse me just a moment. But that doesn't make these facts inaccurate, or false.

MR. CICCONI: And I'm not claiming that.

MR. MacNeil: Right. Mr. Cicconi.

MR. CICCONI: Let me talk. Let me talk for a second here --

MR. MacNeil: Sure.

MR. CICCONI: -- about distortions if I can. First of all, George keeps coming back to using state and local taxes. The fact is Gov. Clinton is responsible for state taxes, not local tax.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: And, Jim --

MR. MacNeil: Let him finish, Mr. Stephanopoulos.

MR. CICCONI: Can I finish, please. If you just consider state taxes, Arkansas ranks 25th as of 1990. Okay. And that's according to the Commerce Department. That's 1990 figures, and that's before the largest tax increase in the state's history, which occurred last year. Now, Gov. Clinton's proposing the largest increase in the nation's history this year. The fact is too you snuck in another figure there. We're talking about distortions here. You said Gov. Clinton signed a bill that removed 374,000 low income people from the tax rolls. I think I flushed it out a little bit for you here. And we hear that a lot from him, and we hear it a lot from you. The fact is that this simply conformed Arkansas's income tax code to the federal standards, the federal tax reform law, which was enacted in 1986. Arkansas took five years to conform its tax laws to this. Virtually every other state in the union conformed its law to the federal standards and removed those people from the tax rolls, those low income people, well before Arkansas.

MR. MacNeil: Let him reply to that.

MR. CICCONI: Arkansas was one of the last to do it. And Gov. Clinton took five years to do it.

MR. MacNeil: Let him reply to that.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: The truth is that Arkansas did take 42 percent of their citizens off the tax rolls. No. 2, the truth is also that Arkansas is a low tax state. Even if you simply take state taxes, if you want to do that, as USA Today has pointed out, Arkansas is below the national average in every appreciable measure, in every appreciable measure. Secondly, when you talk about the Governor's plans, which is the second part of your ad, the largest tax increase in history defined by Ronald Reagan is bigger than the one being imposed by Gov. Clinton. The second largest tax increase in history was signed by President Bush. Again, it's bigger than the one proposed by Gov. Clinton. What you don't include in your figures is the tax cut on working people and middle class people Gov. Clinton has proposed. You don't point out that the tax increases on the top 2 percent --

MR. CICCONI: Let me take --

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: -- and that's the bulk --

MR. CICCONI: -- let me take those one at a time.

MR. MacNeil: Let him finish, Mr. Cicconi, then I'll give you plenty of time.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: You don't include the point that Gov. Clinton calls for $140 billion in spending cuts which includes 100,000 bureaucrats and a 3 percent across-the-board cut in waste.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Cicconi.

MR. CICCONI: First of all, on this low income tax burden which we keep hearing, we hear it -- we hear think tanks cited by the Clinton people, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities -- they did a study in 1988, and they said, "Lower income families face greater state and local tax burdens in Arkansas than in most other states." Secondly, Citizens for Tax Justice said, Arkansas has one of the ten most regressive sales taxes. In 1991, they were one of only three states to raise both the sales tax and the gas tax. Now, the fact is that when Gov. Clinton talks about his supposed budget cuts, the fact is that most of those are phony cuts. If you look in his budget there, you find very little detail on any of them. The hundred thousand employees that he proposes to cut, the fact is in the President's current budget, there's a figure for 125,000 cuts. That's just from attrition. An analysis has been done of this budget and the fact is the numbers simply do not add up by a number of people who have looked at it.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: But, Jim, it's been --

MR. CICCONI: The fact is -- the fact is that of the 140 billion that they're claiming virtually the only cuts that are real are the cuts in the defense budget, which are all too real.

MR. MacNeil: Since the focus of the ad is what Clinton did in Arkansas, Mr. Stephanopoulos, how do you respond to the charge that Arkansas has some of the most regressive state sales taxes?

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, that same study that you mentioned also pointed out that overall taxes Arkansas is in the top 10 in progressivity. If you just take sales taxes, Arkansas has raised sales taxes and dedicated it to the education reforms which have led to great progress in the state of Arkansas. Arkansas's constitutional requirement is making it virtually impossible to raise any income taxes. Gov. Clinton recognized that, but also recognized that you had to invest in education. And he convinced Republicans and the business community in his state to support these increases in sales taxes so that it could be invested in education. That's smart policy. I would also add that President Bush, himself, said specifically that he would not criticize either Gov. Clinton or any other governors which will have to increase sale taxes to conform to federal mandates back in 1990. Now he's going back because he's in election season. But that's understandable. But the basic point is that he raised sales taxes. He dedicated it to education, but Arkansas overall, when you consider all the taxes in Arkansas, it's one of the ten most progressive states in the nation, and, again, it has the second lowest state and local taxes.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Cicconi.

MR. CICCONI: Well, again, I mean, Gov. Clinton last year raised taxes, both the sales tax and the gas tax, to pay for whatever spending priorities he had at the time. But I don't recall hearing in 1991 any talk of the federal government mandating them to do that. The fact is that's passing the buck. Now, the large --

MR. MacNeil: It's passing the buck to raise taxes. Is it passing the buck to raise taxes --

MR. CICCONI: No. No. Frankly, to blame it on --

MR. MacNeil: -- to spend on education.

MR. CICCONI: No, to blame it on federal mandates frankly. He can make the spending choices he wants. And he has to finance them there. But the fact is that in doubling the state spending since 1983 in Arkansas, he's financed this spending spree through the most regressive of means, states sales taxes and gas taxes, and things of this nature.

MR. MacNeil: You heard what --

MR. CICCONI: And the same thing --

MR. MacNeil: -- George Stephanopoulos said that the state constitution makes it virtually impossible to raise the income tax, because I believe it requires a three-quarters majority in the state legislature.

MR. CICCONI: Well, again, Gov. Clinton has the options we have on the federal level. You can try to cut spending. But let me -- let me attack, if I can here for a second, this notion that he somehow is progressive and not regressive in his taxes. The fact is that anyone who's ever studied this knows that state sales taxes and gas taxes are among the most regressive means of financing these things. The single most common complaint against Gov. Clinton by independent tax reform experts in his statement, and that includes the head of the state AFL-CIO, is that he's done nothing to reverse the punishing regressivity of the state tax structure.

MR. MacNeil: Let's just stop --

MR. CICCONI: In fact, he's made it worse.

MR. MacNeil: Let's stop on that point -- let's stop on that point and get an answer.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, again, I just have to go back, when you look at the overall numbers, Arkansas is one of the ten most progressive tax structures in the entire United States. And again the broader point, every single one of these taxes that Jim Cicconi on behalf of President Bush is criticizing are taxes that President Bush has signed himself, a doubling of the gas tax, a doubling of the beer tax, and an increase in the cigarette tax, an increase in the telephone tax, an increase in the airline ticket tax. We could just as simply put President Bush on this side and run it against him. Now that doesn't necessarily stop them from doing it. It doesn't mean that their attack is not factual, but it means that it's hypocritical.

MR. MacNeil: It's hypocritical, Mr. Cicconi?

MR. CICCONI: Well, again, I mean, we keep hearing the fact slipped in that it was one of the most progressive sales taxes according to --

MR. MacNeil: No. Respond to the point that it's hypocritical.

MR. CICCONI: Well, I don't think it's hypocritical at all. The fact is that he's talking about -- about taxes that were put forward and pushed and frankly, the President was blackmailed into signing them by a Democratic Congress that conceived of these things, wrote them, and forced him to accept them in return for getting him the spending cuts he needed to get the deficit under control.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Robin, if I can respond to that.

MR. MacNeil: Just briefly.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Well, the President is the one who put tax increases on the table. The President's budget this year includes $14 billion in taxes, many of these kinds of taxes that Jim is talking about. Every single proposal that the President made in the budget summit included new taxes. Jim knows that. He can ask Dick Darman, who is in the room with him, and he can't escape that fact.

MR. MacNeil: Let me just ask you in conclusion, Mr. Cicconi, as a result of this conversation are you, on behalf of your party, so embarrassed by this ad you're going to go back and ask that they withdraw it?

MR. CICCONI: The fact is the ad is accurate. It's truthful. George hasn't challenged that one iota. I think I've refuted the notion that it somehow creates a false impression. The fact is the impression it creates is correct. The Arkansas Gazette said the tax increases that the state has put forward are so regressive that they're inhumane. And I think that the facts speak forthemselves.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Stephanopoulos, are you going to recommend that the ad -- radio ad we discussed at the opening -- is so false and distorted that it should be withdrawn?

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: I think so.

MR. MacNeil: Gentlemen, thank you both for joining us.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Thank you.

MS. WOODRUFF: Still ahead on the NewsHour, more talk about the presidential campaign from voters in Hutchinson, Kansas, and Gergen and Shields. FOCUS - VOTE COUNT - KANSAS

MS. WOODRUFF: Next tonight, a sampling of voter sentiment in Hutchinson, Kansas. It's the home of the annual state fair. And Correspondent Elizabeth Farnsworth, a Kansas native, visited the fair, and talked with some Kansans about the upcoming election.

MS. FARNSWORTH: September in Kansas. It's hot and windy, and farmers preparing fields for winter wheat leave trails of dust as they disk the soil. The corn harvest is late this year because of poor weather in July and August, but in Hutchinson, or Hutch, as they say here, the grain elevators are busy night and day. At the state fair, ranchers show ewes born in March and fed to plump perfection by fall. When the wind dies down, there's bungee jumping. And on the Midway, the usual stomach turning rides. And this year there is politics, presidential politics. Kansans have only voted for three Democratic presidents since the turn of the century. But in this topsy turvy year, the latest polls show George Bush can't even taken Kansas for granted anymore. So last week, Marilyn Quayle put the Kansas State Fair on her itinerary.

MARILYN QUAYLE: And I think when the Kansas voters really look at the difference between the two candidates, they'll realize that President Bush is the man that they can trust, and he's a person who really shares their ideas for how this country should be governed.

MS. FARNSWORTH: After 45 minutes, Marilyn Quayle was gone. But we stuck around to hear what some Kansans had to say about the campaign and about how the country should be run. Republican Tom Schmitt owns a retail paint shop in town with his two sons. But his passion is the railroad he built and runs at the fair each year.

TOM SCHMITT, Paint Shop Owner: I don't think we -- out in this part of the country we look at things maybe like they do on the coast. I think the No. 1 issue is this deficit. They can't continue to spend money, and spend money, more and more money than they collect. And, you know, I hear a lot of things in the campaign about, oh, all these other issues, health care and these type of things, but to me, I think this deficit thing has got to be addressed, and it's got to be addressed now, and they've got to cut out this pork barrel legislation. It's just -- it's going to eat this country up. My boy, Stan, here has a couple of the greatest little granddaughters, give me a couple of little granddaughters that Reno's ever seen, and I don't want to put them in debt. I feel that a way. I don't want to put 'em in debt.

MS. FARNSWORTH: The Mitchell brothers, all native Kansans, never miss a state fair. They like to argue about politics. But this year, the brothers all think it's time for a change.

OLEN MITCHELL: I think Bush is the old generation like I am, and we ought to give somebody else a chance. As far as Clinton is concerned, I like him okay. I think he has a lot of good points. I really don't know that much about him, but it would be a change. And I know what we have now, so I'm ready to try something else.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Wouldn't it be very strange for Kansas not to go Republican?

OLEN MITCHELL: Yes, very strange.

MS. FARNSWORTH: But you think it actually might happen?

OLEN MITCHELL: Like I said, it would be probably when the Methodists recognize the deficit is probably when it'll go Democrat.

ORVILLE MITCHELL: You can talk about family values and military service and all that stuff, but when it gets down to the bottom line, it's how the economy is going. The economy is in trouble. We had a heck of a time getting Bush to even admit it was in trouble. Now he knows it's in trouble because he's in trouble.

MS. FARNSWORTH: In the horse barn, Francis Bliss checks out a potential champion being groomed for judging. Bliss is a rancher who runs 5,000 head of cattle West of Independence, Kansas.

F.E. BLISS, Cattle Rancher: It seems like people are in such a turmoil about something right now. I don't know what it is. They just want change, things have been so upset so long, and sometimes I don't think they know what they want. But that seems to be our big deal. You know, we had some good times there for a while, you might say, and then there's a lot of people that lost their farms, there's a lot of people that had to take less for their farms when they was forced to sell out and the like. But the price has started back up. And it looks like we're starting to recover now.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Do you think there should be a change, or do you think we should -- that President Bush should be re-elected?

F.E. BLISS: Well, see I've had the best four or five years in the cattle industry I've ever had, so I guess I'm not as much for changing maybe as some people would that have had a worse time than I have.

MS. FARNSWORTH: On the Midway, more and more people arrived as the afternoon wore on. Lois and Glen Lorei came all the way from Kansas City. They're Bush supporters, but they're worried Clinton might win.

LOIS LOREI: As small business people we're really concerned about the restrictions that could be put on business, and you know, some of the things that they're talking about, we might not be able to stay in business.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Like what?

LOIS LOREI: Oh, health care for -- you know, if you have an employee, you have to have health care, and, you know, we only have two employees now and maybe three. And if we have to provide health care for -- health care for them, we might not be able to --

MR. LOREI: I guarantee you, we'll be down to one.

LOIS LOREI: So then there will be several people out on the street that won't have a job. And I don't see how that can help the economy.

ADOLPH OLLEK: I grew up through the last depression. I haven't forgotten it. And we're heading right head long into that right now. I can see the writing on the wall. And interest rates are not going up. They don't look like they're going to go up. And people aren't even buying with a 2 3/4 percent interest rate. Doesn't that worry you? It certainly worries me.

MS. FARNSWORTH: Glenn Gagnebin, who works for Kansas Power & Light in Hutchinson, has also started a small real estate company to make ends meet. He's a registered Democrat, though he did support President Nixon. This year he's backing Clinton.

MS. FARNSWORTH: What are the main concerns of people here in Kansas this year? Let's say you and your friends, what are you worried about?

GLENN GAGNEBIN: I think job security. I mean, they're talking about this free trade deal with Mexico, Canada. Well, it'll create the jobs, but I think more jobs are going to go away than come in. This free trade agreement would be good if you had basically the hourly pay was similar or the same in each country, but we've lost, you know, GE and Honeywell, and IBM; a lot of companies have moved to Mexico because they can work down there for a dollar an hour. And our wage earners, you know, have to make five, six bucks an hour to make it. The mood of the people right now is they're ready for a change, you know. Whether it had been Clinton or Perot, I think Perot had a good shot at it to start with. With him dropping out we lost a lot of credibility. So I think -- I think Clinton will take Kansas. It will be close. As Republican as Kansas is, it'll be close.

MS. FARNSWORTH: In the morning, Hutchinson is quiet. The skyline seems familiar, maybe because we remember it from the movie Picnic. William Holden romanced Kim Novak here. He finally won her heart at a fall festival somewhat like the fair. It's not easy to win a Kansan's heart, as this year's presidential candidates are finding out. FOCUS - '92 - GERGEN & SHIELDS

MS. WOODRUFF: To put the week's political events in sharp focus, we turn now to Gergen & Shields. David Gergen is editor at large of U.S. News & World Report. He joins us tonight from New Haven, Connecticut. Mark Shields is a syndicated political columnist. Mark, what does it tell you about this election, if anything, that voters in Kansas are saying the sorts of things we just heard?

MR. SHIELDS: I think it shows more than anything else, Judy, the President is in really serious shape with just five weeks to go. Everything is a poll in politics. And I think that Kansas is hardly aberrational when you saw the President's schedule this week. He was in Mississippi. Now if there's one state that a Republican ought to be able to assume in a presidential campaign, Ronald Reagan and George Bush carried it three times in the decade of the eighties, it ought to be Mississippi, or Oklahoma, where George Bush was also campaigning. The only analogy I can think of is it's like a Democratic presidential nominee spending October trying to convert the Harvard Faculty Club of the United Auto Workers Executive Committee. I mean, George Bush is in trouble when he has to go back to his base, he's still wooing them with five weeks to go.

MS. WOODRUFF: David, do you see it that way?

MR. GERGEN: Very much so, Judy. This has not been a good week for the President. He had two good weeks coming into this. He didn't make much progress against Bill Clinton. He thought the draft issue would be working for him. It hasn't worked all that well, and now the Iran-contra stories, of course, are going to help to neutralize that. But I think, Judy, that this election is nearing the edge now. There's going to be a point soon here where it's almost going to be impossible for the President to win. And, indeed, I would say now contrary to what many others thought earlier this season, that the race would tighten up, there is a real danger that from the Republican point of view and from the Democratic point of view, this could be a real blow out. This could be the biggest Democratic victory since 1964, unless the Bush campaign catches fire soon.

MS. WOODRUFF: Mark, do you think that that could happen?

MR. SHIELDS: I think it could happen. I'm not sure it will. I think they've probably got a week to go to see if themes work, or anything --

MR. GERGEN: You mean, the Bush people.

MR. SHIELDS: -- the Bush people do. Otherwise, I think we'll probably see a scorched earth October. I mean, just -- this is one phrase. The President went down South this week saying the tax and spend criminal coddling leader and civil rights foe, that's how he described Bill Clinton, and you know, voters are not fooled. The voters of Arkansas have re-elected Bill Clinton, elected him five times governor, the same voters of Arkansas who voted for Ronald Reagan and voted for George Bush. And I mean, I think that the President isn't making the case for his re-election. And I think he's failing to make the case against Clinton.

MS. WOODRUFF: But what about the argument -- and we just heard the debate earlier in the program between the Bush administration spokesmen, Jim Cicconi and George Stephanopoulos of the Clinton campaign about Clinton's tax policies in Arkansas, the Bush campaign still thinks apparently that that's an effective theme to be pounding away at.

MR. SHIELDS: I think there is a question. I mean, what George Bush is facing, more than anything else -- and it isn't only of his own making -- Clinton is running in a political climate which is so hostile to incumbents. I mean, this is a country that right now by a margin of five to one believes we're headed in the wrong direction. There's a pessimism abroad in the land. There's a negativism toward the status quo and toward political incumbents. If George Bush does lose on November 3rd, he'll be the best known, he won't be the only incumbent. So he's fighting all of that. He's trying to fight up hill. And I don't think that it's a -- a receptive audience to arguments about whether the gas tax was increased in Little Rock or Ft. Smith in 1983.

MS. WOODRUFF: David, what is wrong with what -- or -- and if you can put in those sort of words -- with the way the Bush campaign is conducting itself?

MR. GERGEN: Well, I think, first of all, Judy. that the Bush campaign is absolutely right to ask that all of us look at the Governor's record in Arkansas. And it seems to me that the press has not given close scrutiny to that record. I think most Americans are going to Bill Clinton right now -- those who said they're going to vote for him -- not because they are embracing Clinton so much, but because he is not Bush. And, you know, the truth is we did the same sort of thing in 1976 when we elected Jimmy Carter. Nobody really examined who Jimmy Carter was, what kind of record he had, or what kind of President he would be. And it does seem to me that that's only fair here in the next few weeks that that question be asked. But what the President faces, the difficulty he faces is that all elections when incumbents are standing, especially incumbent presidents, are a referendum on the performance of that incumbent. In this case, it's a very negative referendum so far. The President has not been able to convince the voters of the crucial point, and that is that the first term may not have been so good, but my second term will be better. Unless he can turn that tide, it doesn't make any difference -- he will not be able to do it on the Arkansas record alone. He needs to push the Arkansas record, just as he needs to push everything else, but more than anything else, he has to convince people that he, himself, will be a better President in the second term. And he has not yet made that sale.

MS. WOODRUFF: Just quickly, how much is the President being hurt, if at all, by this Iran-contra -- these revelations that have come out just in the last few days -- Gen. Secord, a former National Security staff person, Howard Teicher, and today David, U.S. News & World Report, your news magazine, is saying that there is a still classified Israeli report that says that the President not only knew about selling arms to Iran, he was pushing it?

MR. GERGEN: Yes, indeed, we do have that report. It is something that the magazine has been working on for a while, and I think it's driving home the case that just as the country does not yet know enough about Bill Clinton's draft record, and that's all very murky, there's a lot we don't know about what George Bush did. And I think as a political matter, it's going to balance the two cases out. I think in any kind debate which we now have -- and by the way, I think the prospects for debate may be dimming a good deal, sad to say -- but in any debate, I think that you're going to have both candidates of course answer questions about what they knew and when they knew it.

MS. WOODRUFF: Mark, on that point --

MR. SHIELDS: I think it goes a long way toward neutralizing what it should or it shouldn't. The -- Clinton's problem on the draft, I mean, Clinton can now turn and say there are questions and profound questions of what George Bush did as a grown-up, there certainly have been a lot of questions as to what I did as a twenty-two or twenty-three-old man, and I've tried to answer them, or have answered them, not completely, but there are now even more gnawing and immediate and dramatic questions about what George Bush did as vice president.

MS. WOODRUFF: What about Ross Perot, with those stories today he may -- may well get back in the race, there's a conflict to whether he will or he won't -- but what if he does?

MR. SHIELDS: Well, George Bush has got to hope -- I guess I disagree with David on the debates. I think George Bush has to start thinking in terms of trying to shake this race up. He's got to do things about it. The re-entry of Ross Perot in a way does shake things up. According to the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll, the margin which was 10 points of Clinton over Bush in a 51/41 national mark-up -- match-up, becomes 39/33 with Perot in. So Perot does change things a little bit. I think Perot in the debate would change things if, in fact, that's certainly the precedent. That is the precedent for that. And I would say that the Ross Perot who enters though is not to be confused with the Ross Perot who left the race in July. The Ross Perot who left the race in July was an intriguing figure, controversial figure albeit, but had a 40/30 favorable measurement in the country among his countrymen. The one who comes back in has a two to one negative. There's a sense of betrayal among thousands and thousands of people who supported him.

MS. WOODRUFF: David, what does Ross Perot accomplish if he gets back in? I mean, does anyone think he has a serious chance at winning?

MR. GERGEN: No. Some of his volunteers do, but most serious analysts do not. He has a loyal band of volunteers, and I salute them for what they stand for, but Judy, I'll tell you, it would be a mistake for the volunteers and for Ross Perot to re-energize and re-open this race. He's going to be diminished by it. He's going to diminish his ideas. It's a mistake for the country. He's going to distract from the serious attention we ought to be giving the next five weeks to the two men who might become president. We ought not to be asked, spending a lot of our time asking questions and spending -- looking at someone who's never going to become president.

MS. WOODRUFF: But, David, as you know, what he says he's doing by getting back in is forcing the two candidates to look at the deficit issue, which he says they have not adequately addressed.

MR. GERGEN: Well, I know he feels that way, and many of his volunteers do, but I tell you, I talked to him today, Judy, and I told him, I said, youknow, the truth is you're going to have in the next few weeks the same kind of circus that you had in the last few weeks before you got out of the race, and Mark is absolutely right. He is a diminished figure now. Many people feel that he jerked the country around and jerked his volunteers around now. This man could contribute a great deal to this country if he stayed as a private citizen and led a private campaign for economic renewal. He could contribute a great deal as citizen Perot, but candidate Perot is going to get hurt, and it doesn't help the country in trying to make a very serious choice about the future.

MS. WOODRUFF: Mark.

MR. SHIELDS: The prospect of his re-entry though, Judy, has already convinced the Clinton people to move up a speech on deficit reduction. I don't think the two are unrelated. I think that Ross Perot, his identification and his advocacy of that issue may push it back. I mean, we're going to go through another campaign, I'm fearful, that we don't even address this issue which the people in that Kansas report said was gnawing at them, bothering them most of all.

MS. WOODRUFF: So you think he could have a helpful impact?

MR. SHIELDS: I think the possibility of his coming back has had - - has had that influence. I do say there's something completely disingenuous about his asking his own volunteers whether he should run. It's a little bit like polling the fans of the Oakland A's whether slugging first base man Mark Maguire ought to be in the line-up of the play-offs of the American League.

MS. WOODRUFF: Well, for those of us who don't follow baseball.

MR. SHIELDS: Mark Maguire's a prime hitter and the best hitter on the Oakland A's, and key to their success. I mean, it's little bit like -- it's not an unbiased jury --

MS. WOODRUFF: But who does he hurt? I want to ask both of you. Is it clear yet whether he helps or he hurts one or the other of them?

MR. SHIELDS: I think there's little doubt -- and David can address this much more in a form fashion, but little doubt that his basic antipathy lies toward George Bush. And it comes down to where he concentrates his effort. If he concentrates his effort and energy in states like Texas and Florida, states that Bush has to have if he is to have any chance of winning --

MS. WOODRUFF: Then he hurts Bush.

MR. SHIELDS: -- then he hurts Bush dramatically.

MS. WOODRUFF: David.

MR. GERGEN: In the national polls, Judy, it's pretty much a wash. But Clinton maintains most of his lead. I think when it comes to the electoral college though, Perot probably hurts Bush a little more. He drains some of the white vote in the South. But I go back to this point -- you know, Kenny Rogers says in a song -- the country singer -- a man needs to know when to hold, when to fold, and when to walk away. This man has folded already. He should walk away from this race.

MS. WOODRUFF: Just quickly, Mark, prospects for debates. Are we any closer this week than we were a week ago?

MR. SHIELDS: I think we are. I think it's become a matter --

MS. WOODRUFF: Because of Perot?

MR. SHIELDS: I think Perot's entry probably does give a certain rationalization for those looking for it. And I think if you're Jim Baker and George Bush, you've got to say hey, we've got to shape this race up.

MS. WOODRUFF: All right. Mark Shields, David Gergen, thank you both. RECAP

MR. MacNeil: Again, the main stories of this Friday, both President Bush and Bill Clinton said they were unworried that Ross Perot might re-enter the presidential race. Basketball great "Magic" Johnson resigned from the National Commission on AIDS because, in his words, "It is so utterly ignored by the Bush administration." A NASA rocket blasted off on an 11-month, 450 million mile odyssey to search for life on Mars. Good night, Judy.

MS. WOODRUFF: Good night, Robin. That's our NewsHour for tonight. We'll be back Monday night with the latest on the Ross Perot watch. I'm Judy Woodruff. Thank you and have a good weekend.