The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

Intro

ROBERT MacNEIL: Good evening. In the headlines this Friday night, four states ordered evacuations as Hurricane Elena bore down on the Gulf Coast. The Pentagon announced mandatory AIDS tests for new recruits. The latest figures show an upturn in the economy. Fierce rioting raged in South Africa's Cape Town area. Details of those and other major stories in a moment. Jim?

JIM LEHRER: The hurricane is one of our focus stories tonight. A hurricane expert and a Florida state official will give us the latest on Elena. We will also look at the argument over the health hazards of eating red meat, and in an essay by Mike Lupica at a baseball phenom called Dwight Gooden.News Summary

MacNEIL: Governors of four Gulf Coast states ordered evacuation of coastal counties today as they braced for the arrival of Hurricane Elena. The hurricane, with present winds of a hundred miles an hour, was centered south of Pensacola, Florida, and moving northwards and slightly to the east. Forecasters say it will probably hit the Florida coast tomorrow morning somewhere between Pensacola and Apalachicola. As it advanced, the hurricane slowed its speed to five miles an hour, giving it time to build up strength and possibly make it more dangerous. States of emergency and evacuations were ordered in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. Gales on the edge of the huge storm were already lashing the Gulf Coast, with abnormally high tides swamping low-lying areas. Huge waves smashed against sea walls and torrential rains reduced visibility. At Apalachicola, Florida, the rains were so heavy that people could see only 20 feet. Seawater covered coastal roads and flash-flood warnings were posted. The storm's diameter was estimated at 350 miles, but its outer fringes extended all the way from Mexico to Virginia. An estimated 145,000 people retreated inland on orders from state governments. Florida's governor, Bob Graham, changed a voluntary evacuation call to a mandatory order, saying if people stayed in their homes they faced almost certain injury or death. With memories of killer hurricanes of the past, like Betsy, Camille and Frederic, thousands obeyed. In Louisiana, officials at evacuation centers said it was the largest crowd they'd seen in a long time. Crews of offshore oil rigs were also evacuated. Even the dolphins were removed from the Gulfport, Mississippi, oceanarium to safer hotel swimming pools. Jim?

LEHRER: There was more rioting and more death in South Africa. Today the action was in the mixed-race districts of Cape Town, where more fires were set and stone-throwing mobs clashed with police. The unofficial death toll since violence broke out Wednesday was put at 31 late today by the Associated Press. Our report is again from James Robbins of the BBC.

JAMES ROBBINS, BBC [voice-over]: The situation in Cape Town worsened still further today. Police have been ordering news teams out of the townships, where security forces are apparently relying increasingly on shotguns, facing masked youths, erecting barricades and setting fire to buildings. And in a further effort by the government to restrict reporting of the true scale of the violence, officials of the largest hospital in the city, the Crotescure, say they've been ordered not to give any details of casualties, although 150 people are known to have been admitted to that hospital alone.

Against this background, the four largest industrial and commercial federations, representing the bulk of South African business, are now united, urging constitutional change to save an embattled economy. Flying into Johannesburg this morning, three EEC foreign ministers from Holland, Italy and Luxembourg. They've been refused permission to see Nelson Mandela in prison. That decision nearly kept them away, but instead they're having two and a half days' intensive discussion with as many other political leaders of all races as they can meet.

LEHRER: Here in Washington today, a check for $6,700 was given to the daughter of jailed South African black leader Nelson Mandela. The money is to rebuild a medical clinic and the home of her mother, Winnie Mandela. Both were firebombed. Mrs. Mandela had refused to accept $10,000 from the U.S. State Department to rebuild them because of her objection to U.S. South African policy. Fourteen senators personally contributed the money, accepted today by the daughter, Zenani. Senator Howard Metzenbaum, Democrat of Ohio, made the presentation.

Sen. HOWARD METZENBAUM, (D) Ohio: I say to you, Zeni, please know that Americans of all political views have a deep sense of hurt and empathy with the problems of the people of South Africa. Zeni, we wish you, your children, your entire family well, and we do the same to all of the people of South Africa, hoping that there will soon be an end to the bloodshed and a resolution of the differences that exist.

ZENANI MANDELA DLAMINI, Nelson Mandela's daughter: I hope this gesture of generosity will encourage other organizations in the United States to help not only my mother but the people of South Africa. There are many, many more South Africans that have sacrificed as much or more, and oftentimes their lives for this just and timely cause.

MacNEIL: Australia today joined the U.S. and Britain in ordering inspections of the Pratt & Whitney JT8D engines used on Boeing's 737 and 727 aircraft. Meanwhile, a transatlantic controversy was brewing over statements made on this program last night by Federal Aviation Administrator Donald Engen. British airline officials inferred that Engen was criticizing their procedures in suggesting that they push the engines too hard. Here's an excerpt of what Engen said last night.

DONALD ENGEN, Federal Aviation Administration: I think that what they've determined was that they have been operating the JT8D --

LEHRER: That's the engine we're talking about.

Mr. ENGEN: The engine, to temperature limits that have finally begun to develop these cracks. In America we operate in a different way in that we have in-flight monitoring all the time by the major air carriers. Our major air carriers are sampling those engines on every flight at altitude. The information is translated to the ground, and we're observing the engines and how they grow, and we don't have the cracks that the British have found.

MacNEIL: The reaction from Britain, which is still investigating the Manchester crash of a 737 that killed 54 people, was one of considerable irritation, as we hear in this report from Michael Cole of the BBC.

MICHAEL COLE, BBC [voice-over]: British Airways say that under no circumstances do they operate the engines on their Boeing 737s at higher temperatures than those stipulated by Boeing. Other British airlines, notably Monarch and Britannia, are equally forthright. "Balderdash, nonsense, rubbish," was how they responded to the American allegations, allegations which one leading aviation expert says are so insulting that they may cause the biggest bustup ever between the civil aviation authorities of America and Britain. British Airlines say they stick strictly to the Boeing flight manual which comes with each aircraft. Independent experts say that, if anything, British standards are superior to American. Many British 737s have on-board computers monitoring engine performance, though not the Manchester crash plane. Pratt & Whitney themselves have said that the Manchester disaster was a one off? They have not pointed to British monitoring as the cause of the explosion.

MacNEIL: Later this afternoon, FAA officials said Engen was not trying to imply that the British had used improper procedures or that their regulations were inadequate.

LEHRER: All military recruits will be tested for AIDS, the Defense Department announced today. The procedure will involve testing a recruit's blood for the AIDS antibody and will be done routinely beginning by October 1st. The announcement was made by Pentagon health chief William Mayer, who said the special nature of military service made such tests prudent.

WILLIAM MAYER, Defense Department: Since it's certain now that AIDS can be spread directly through blood transfusions, and since in time of war, or even in times of smaller mass casualties than war, we rely on direct transfusions from one soldier to another in the field and therefore couldn't screen out those who might have this antibody and could therefore endanger the lives of wounded soldiers, this was a simple, prudent, conservative medical step to take.

LEHRER: Mayer said those recruits found to have the AIDS antibody could eventually be denied entry to the military, but only after a complex series of followup tests and procedures.

MacNEIL: The government published economic performance figures that were hailed by the White House as showing solid growth but were greeted less enthusiastically by private economists. The index of leading economic indicators, the government's main forecasting gauge, rose four tenths of a percent in July. And the trade deficit fell to $10 billion, the lowest monthly figure since January. However, orders to U.S. factories fell 1.3 . White House spokesman Larry Speakes said, "The reports indicated solid growth over the last three months, and with other statistics showed an economy that continues to expand." But Jerry Jasinowski, chief economist for the National Association of Manufacturers, said the reports gave no hint of a rebound, but rather an economy in a holding pattern.

LEHRER: Michael Drummond is doing better tonight. He is the 25-year-old Phoenix man who was given an artificial heart yesterday at the University of Arizona Hospital at Phoenix. His doctors said his condition was critical but stable and could be ready for a human transplant within a week to three weeks. They consider the artificial heart to be only a temporary bridge until a human donor can be found. The doctors said Drummond, who works as an assistant supermarket manager, was dying from a diseased and failing heart when the decision was made to go ahead with the implant.

MacNEIL: In Poland, Lech Walesa marked the fifth anniversary of the birth of the now-banned Solidarity movement by charging the Communist government with measures that were destroying Poland's economy. He appealed to the government to free political prisoners, stop repression and return to the road of accommodation.

In San Juan, Puerto Rico, some 200 FBI agents arrested at least 13 people in connection with an armed raid by suspected Puerto Rican terrorists two years ago. Morethan $7 million was taken from the Wells Fargo depot in West Hartford, Connecticut. FBI Director William Webster said the alleged ringleader, Victor Gerena, had been given sanctuary in Cuba with part of the loot.

LEHRER: And that is our summary of the news of this day. We will look in detail at the violence Hurricane Elena is bringing to the Gulf Coast, at the argument over the alleged health hazards in eating red meat, and at a young man named Gooden who throws baseballs for a living. Hurricane Elena

LEHRER: Hurricane Elena is gathering strength for a smash at the Gulf Coast, most likely around Pensacola, Florida. Thousands of people have already evacuated the coastal areas of Florida and Alabama as well as sections of Mississippi and Louisiana. Elena has winds of 100 miles an hour. Gales and high tides, heavy rain and smashing waves have already been felt, as we see in this report from correspondent Tom Bearden in Pensacola.

TOM BEARDEN [voice-over]: The surf was pounding the beach at Gulf Shores this morning a full 12 hours before the expected landfall of Elena. The waves already topped the boardwalk and had washed away part of the fishing pier. It's just the beginning.

[on camera] The last major hurricane to strike the Gulf Coast was Frederic in 1979. That storm caused over $2 billion worth of damage. Local residents say it leveled virtually everything here on the beachfront, and they expect the same thing to happen this time.

[voice-over] The water was already lapping at the hundreds of new high-rise condominiums and homes that have been built since the devastation six years ago. Some of them were constructed to withstand hurricane force winds, but hurricanes frequently spawn tornadoes, and nothing along this coastline can survive them. Most of the 5,000 residents of this long, narrow island abandoned their homes and businesses earlier this morning for the relative safety of inland towns. But a few, like restaurant owner Kay Larrimore, remained to finish their preparations for the onslaught of wind and water.

KAY LARRIMORE, restaurant owner: I think the restaurant will make it. You know, it's on cement. I know the home I have down on the beach I don't think will make it.

BEARDEN: What are you going to do if it goes away?

Ms. LARRIMORE: I don't know. I'll probably start crying if I keep talking to you.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Police say about a dozen people plan to ride out the storm here in the danger zone, and even though Governor George Wallace ordered coastal areas evacuated this morning, they say they aren't going to force anybody to leave. Their only requirement is that the people turn in their names, so, as police put it, their next of kin can be notified tomorrow.

M.L. SIMS, medical technician: I think they're crazy. Well, that might be wrong to say crazy, but I'm concerned about their safety, 'cause this isn't something to fool around with.

HOMEOWNER: We need to go to the Shrimpboat Restarurant right here is where our house is.

POLICEMAN: That's on West Beach Boulevard.

HOMEOWNER: West Beach.

POLICEMAN: You all can't go down on West Beach. We've got some instructions to keep folks off of West Beach.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: As the storm slowly approached the shore, some people were trying to get back into evacuated areas to bring out a few last items of personal property. But police were adamant.

POLICEMAN: Go ahead and turn your car around, please.

2nd HOMEOWNER: You've got to be joking.

POLICEMAN: No, sir, I'm not joking; I'm serious as I can be.

HOMEOWNER: I've probablygot as much investment down there on that beach as anybody that's got any.

POLICEMAN: Mr. Booth, would you please move your car?

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Paul Morne's house is 11 miles inland, but it suffered $9,000 worth of damage from Hurricane Frederic.

PAUL MORNE, homeowner: This one got blown out. Masking tape's all right, but it only keeps it from shattering.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Tens of thousands of Gulf Coast residents will spend tonight, perhaps many nights, in shelters like this one, confined to a few square feet on the floor in the hallways of school buildings and National Guard armories. It'll be a sleepless night for most of them, wondering if their homes will still be there when the storm is finally over.

LEHRER: We will hear more about Elena later from the director of the National Hurricane Center and from the chief emergency official of the state of Florida. Also still to come, a debate over the health hazards of eating beef, and an essay by Mike Lupica about the amazing Met named Dwight Gooden. Eating Less Beef

MacNEIL: As you warm up the barbecue for the last official weekend of summer, consider this: red meat, especially beef, is losing its once-central place in the American diet. Rising public concern about fat and cholesterol has caused a shift to more chicken, fish and pasta. That lifestyle change caught the American beef industry napping, but now they're starting to fight back. We'll be talking to the head of the National Cattlemen's Association and a prominent health writer, but first we get more background from correspondent Tom Bearden.

DICK PROBERT, Utah cattleman: Well, if you get pushed down in a hole so far, you get your back up against a wall, you got to come out fighting, and we've went about as far as we can go and still stay in the business.

TOM BEARDEN [voice-over]: Dick Probert is a rancher in Utah. For generations his family has raised cattle on the high plateaus of this desert state and made a good living at it. Now that lifestyle is in serious jeopardy because many Americans now believe eating beef is harmful. Americans have taken medical recommendations to reduce intake of cholesterol and fat seriously, and frequently that has come to mean a sharply reduced consumption of red meat. Research indicates that almost half of all Americans now regard beef as not fitting in with a modern lifestyle. Jeanne Sowa is a nutritionist with the promotion wing of the industry, the Beef Industry Council.

JEANNE SOWA, nutritionist: It just seems like the popular thing today is to say that I eat less red meat. And I think a lot of the negative publicity has contributed to that attitude.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: The industry is extremely concerned about the long-term trend. Department of Agriculture figures show a generally declining per capita consumption of beef since 1976, and Chase Econometrics estimates beef consumption will continue to fall through 1994.

This is the latest salvo in the beef industry's growing counterattack, a television advertising campaign that will be seen in 10 major cities during the next several months. They hope to convince consumers that red meat does have a place in a healthy diet, and they're turning to sophisticated marketing techniques to convey their message. In May the industry launched another major effort to counter the negative image. It's called Nutri-Facts. Beef producers are urging retailers to place placards on meat counters and labels on packages telling consumers what they say is the good news about beef.

Ms. SOWA: We show that you can create a beef meal, an entire meal that includes meat -- beef, vegetables, etcetera -- for under 300 calories, and they can also be very contemporary meals. It's not the same old meatloaf again.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Producers say beef has been unfairly labeled by some health groups as high in fat and cholesterol. They claim new data gathered by the Agriculture Department proves today's beef is a different product than what was produced 20 years ago. Sowa says new breeding and feeding techniques are producing a more healthy product.

Ms. SOWA: Beef is 10 leaner today than it was years ago, and as a result of that the product that we actually consume is leaner and lower in calories.

JO ANN SMITH, National Cattlemen's Association: The American consumer today does not want the same kind of product necessarily that she wanted 15 to 20 years ago. We were slow to respond to it. We did not respond to it at the time we should have done so.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Jo Ann Smith is the president of the National Cattlemen's Association.

Ms. SMITH: This industry is in a war for survival, very definitely. The survival that the cattle producer needs is to survive at a profit, and to be able to survive, he's got to make some money and he hasn't been able to do that. But he's willing to change for the first time. He's willing to address that.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: She says the industry has been meeting with organizations like the American Heart Association and the National Cancer Institute to correct what meat producers believe is inaccurate information about the nutritional qualities of beef. Another way cattle producers may stage a comeback is by imitating the successful marketing strategies of the chicken industry. Once sold in much the same way as beef, a commodity, chicken is now frequently marketed as a brand-name product. Smith thinks a branded beef product will inevitably appear on supermarket shelves. The chicken industry has also been extremely successful in marketing foods that can be prepared quickly, because consumers are now as interested in convenience as they are in health. Beef producers are hard at work looking for similar products. Glen Schmidt is a professor of meat technology at Colorado State University. He's developed an organic binding agent that will allow meat packers to re-form meat into products that can be precooked, yet sold fresh, not frozen.

Dr. GLEN SCHMIDT, Colorado State University: What we're doing is selecting the best pieces from the carcass and putting it together with this binder to put it in a shape for the modern consumer.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: But President Smith says none of this is enough. Since her election in January she has crisscrossed the country, sounding the alarm in countless speeches before livestock organizations. She's trying to win support for a program that could provide the massive amounts of money she believes are necessary to restore beef to its pre-eminent place in the American diet. The Beef Industry Council currently supports a $10 million promotion and research program under the auspices of the Beef Industry Council. It's financed by a patchwork of state-administered checkoffs. A fee ranging from 25 cents to a dollar is collected for each animal sold. Smith is campaigning for a national one-dollar checkoff, and she hopes even that will eventually be increased to provide a huge marketing program to keep beef competitive in the future.

Ms. SMITH: We have to be marketers. We've been commodity production-oriented, and we have to be marketers of that product. And I think you will see a big swing toward doing that now.

BEARDEN [voice-over]: Checkoff legislation has passed the House Agriculture Committee, but Smith admits the bill faces serious opposition in the Senate and in the industry itself. Smith thinks the industry will eventually have to spend from $60 to $100 million each year to survive.

MacNEIL: A footnote to that report. While the beef industry campaigns for higher beef sales, the American Heart Association will be running an education program in some 8,000 supermarkets to persuade people to eat less cholesterol. With us to discuss this battle over our eating habits, we have the president of the National Cattlemen's Association, Jo Ann Smith, who you saw in that report, and Jane Brody, health and nutrition columnist of The New York Times and author of Jane Brody's Nutrition Book.

Ms. Brody, are Americans eating less beef primary for health reasons or for convenience?

JANE BRODY: It seems to me it's quite clear that it's for health reasons. If you're talking about convenience, the consumption of eggs has declined far more dramatically than the consumption of beef, and yet eggs are far more convenient -- what does it take to cook an egg? The consumption of chicken has grown as beef has come down, and chicken is certainly not easier to prepare than a piece of red meat would be.

MacNEIL: So, Ms. Smith, is it convenience or health the reason for the decline?

JO ANN SMITH: Well, we in the industry, of course, see three issues that we are looking at as some changes that we are making sure will happen. One of course is addressing convenience. Even though you allude to the fact that, of course, chicken is easy to prepare; is also preprocessed and it's prepackaged and is very convenient. We know that the consumer today says 30 minutes in the kitchen is all we'll spend. We also know that we are very aware of the nutrition. We've got a new product; we want to share that. That's good news for the consumer.

MacNEIL: Ms. Brody, how do you assess the health risk to Americans of eating beef?

Ms. BRODY: Well, the most important consideration is not so much the cholesterol content. People are confused about that. If you look at a chart of how much cholesterol is in various foods, you'll find that veal, which is recommended as a substitute for the darker red meats, has actually more cholesterol per ounce than beef does, than red beef does. And yet it's better for you because it is lower in a very important substance called saturated fat. Half of the fat in red meat is saturated fat, and saturated fat raises the cholesterol level in your blood. It is more important to worry about the saturated fat than it is the total cholesterol that you're consuming.

MacNEIL: I see. Ms. Smith, do you think beef is getting a bad rap on the health grounds?

Ms. SMITH: Well, we feel certainly that we have been talked about tremendously. We don't -- we realize that people do not know that this product that we are producing today of course doesn't have the fat; therefore it doesn't have the cholesterol or the saturated fats. So it's great. We have a lean product that Americans can know they can eat and be healthy.

MacNEIL: Hasn't lowering the fat content of American beef reduced the health risk?

Ms. BRODY: It is a leaner product, but it is not yet a lean low-fat product when you look at the total spectrum of fats. And if you compare red meat to chicken or fish, for example, you will find that not only is the total fat content lower in chicken and fish, but the saturated fat content is practically nonexistent in chicken and fish. And there again we have this discrepancy. I'm not suggesting that people should not eat red meat. I eat red meat; my whole family eats red meat. The problem in this country is the quantity.

MacNEIL: Let's come back to the quantity question in a moment. Just on this question of lowering the fat content of American beef, we heard in that report that it's been lowered by 10 from what it used to be 20 years ago. Ms. Brody says that doesn't significantly or appreciably change the fact that beef is still a source of fat, saturated fat. How do you answer that, Ms. Smith?

Ms. SMITH: We know that the product today with the tests that have been run, and of course you see, this example of the new lean product as it relates to in the retail market with Nutri-Facts, and you can plainly see that this product, the three ounces of course compares with the chicken, will compare with the fish. We recommend that all Americans eat a healthy, well-balanced diet. We are strongly believers that there's room for beef in people's diet.

MacNEIL: Yeah, how do you answer that?

Ms. BRODY: There is room, but the three ounces that the industry is talking about is a laudable amount, that's a reasonable quantity to eat at a meal. I would say two ounces would be even more desirable as an amount. The typical American when he or she eats meat, however, has from five to eight ounces on the plate. If you go into a gourmet restaurant, you can get easily a 16-ounce steak and even a 20-ounce steak. That's enough to feed my whole family of four for a month.

MacNEIL: Well, are you saying that three ounces is what a typical American eats when he sits down to eat some beef, Ms. Smith?

Ms. SMITH: Well, of course, each person has to decide their own lifestyle. Where you may have a person that does not eat beef at a meal, eat it all in one day or the next day, he may skip and eat five or six or eight ounces. We have to take into consideration that with lifestyle changes in America we all want to be healthy and look good, and we endorse the fact that we eat a well-balanced meal and we eat meat from the meat group and of course other sources of iron and zinc and so on. So what we're saying is that it is adaptable. This is a personal decision that one has to make as to what they want to do with their life. But beef will fit into anyone's lifestyle.

MacNEIL: But that advertising suggesting that only 300 calories -- I mean, that's if you eat a smaller portion than people normally eat.

Ms. SMITH: Well, some people eat smaller portions often, such as some of your retail hamburger chains today. You're talking about a three-ounce serving, and that's a pretty good size hamburger. It certainly is enough for a meal. We recognize that. Yet people who are hard workers, who are the blue-collar workers, sometimes want to eat the six ounces or eight ounces.

MacNEIL: You say people should not stop eating beef altogether. What do you think is the reasonable amount of beef for an American to eat?

Ms. BRODY: I think three times a week as a meat meal is quite enough, because you have a lot of other sources of excellent protein that are readily available that are even less expensive in some cases, such as the dried peas and beans, which we haven't mentioned. We keep comparing meat to chicken and fish, which is fine, but there is a very, very cheap and healthy source of protein available in our dried peas and beans which we haven't begun to explore that costs a fraction of what your red meat costs.

MacNEIL: Ms. Smith, if people started eating smaller quantities of beef, eating it in smaller portions, or ate it fewer times a week, how are you going to get your beef production and sales back up again? I mean, you need people to eat more, don't you?

Ms. SMITH: Well, of course we take it from the other side and we say that if they would even increase their volume of eating beef to an ounce or an ounce and a half more, this would raise the tonnage a tremendous amount. We're addressing much of our concern and our promotion to those in lifestyles such as the health-oriented to help them understand that we have a product that they can enjoy. Another area, of course, is the fact that for those of us in production today, beef is cheaper today than it's been in seven years. It compares with many of the other meat products and other substitutes. We need to move this glut of the product through, and it's a great buy for the consumer.

MacNEIL: Obviously some people have a lifestyle where they just go on eating beef and like it and are confident about it, and others don't. Is this kind of appeal going to make grounds? I mean, would you as somebody who writes for health-minded people -- otherwise they wouldn't read your column -- are you going to take the message of the beef Cattleman's Association seriously?

Ms. BRODY: I actually already have, and I wrote a column very recently on meat and its place in the American diet, and what nutrients it contributes -- it's a very important source of certain nutrients. Iron, for example, is a very undersold nutrient; it's a nutrient that we have in short supply in many of us, and so meat is one of the best sources of iron and the best absorbed sources of iron. I would not say that you have to cut it out to eat healthfully. I would suggest, however, that instead of focusing upon meat as the centerpiece of your meal, that more of your meat consumption be used using meat as an ingredient.

MacNEIL: You mean like the Chinese do because meat has always been rarer and more expensive.

Ms. BRODY: Exactly. And as an ingredient you only need a two-ounce portion per person. You do not need any more meat than that, and you can prepare that meat so that it is -- most of the fat is cooked out before you consume it.

MacNEIL: I don't think Ms. Smith is looking very happy about two-ounce portions and meat as an ingredient, are you?

Ms. SMITH: Well, we understand that those lifestyles are here. You know, the health-oriented people are addressing the same thing Mrs. Brody, and we just want them in that team to eat their share. We understand that. We're saying that regardless of what your lifestyle is, we have a product that will fit into it.

MacNEIL: Just back on the fat question for a moment. Ms. Smith, are the researchers and genetic engineers in your business, are they trying to make American beef cattle to have even less fat than they have now? Are they working on a leaner still, cow or beef steer?

Ms. SMITH: Sure. We will provide the product that the consumer wants. There are many people who want a more lean product genetically. This animal has been bred and of course does very well and is a very efficient animal. And you will see a lot of changes within this industry in genetics over the next few years, and that will be certainly an area that will be addressed and is currently being addressed.

MacNEIL: Let me ask you something that one economist, he was quoted in that piece, told us. It was Ray Daniel of Chase Econometrics. He said that the collapse in consumer taste for beef is permanent and is going to go on and they aren't going to be able to turn around. What do yousay to that?

Ms. BRODY: I see a lot of changes occurring in American eating habits, and they have not -- not a one of them has turned around. They started in the late 1950s and they have continued and accelerated as we have learned more about what is good for our bodies and what -- the fact that we want to stay around here for 80-odd years, and we don't want to spend the last 20 of them sick and debilitated. And so these changes have occurred primarily in the most influential classes of society -- the professional classes, the well-educated people who are vocal. And this emphasis by the industry on nutrition will simply add to that concern about nutrition.

MacNEIL: How about that, Ms. Smith, that your emphasis on nutrition is going to make people even more aware of it? And also, comment on this economist at Chase Econometrics who says the decline is just going to go down and down, and you're not going to be able to turn it around.

Ms. SMITH: Well, we're a very optimistic group of people. We understand what we're dealing with. We think that we are addressing the issue. The consumer has said to us, "Hey, look, get with it, fit into that lifestyle," and we think we can be competitive and we can certainly meet that marketing challenge.

MacNEIL: Let me ask you what you would recommend putting on a barbecue this weekend if you barbecue?

Ms. BRODY: If you can afford it, fish, and if you can't, chicken, and just take off the skin before you eat it.

MacNEIL: What would you put on it, Ms. Smith?

Ms. SMITH: Well, I certainly hope that we will enjoy some beef in that.

MacNEIL: Thank you very much, both of you, Jane Brody and Jo Ann Smith.

Ms. SMITH: Thank you.

LEHRER: And we have a P.S. to this beef story. The decline in beef eating has been matched by an incline in the eating of fish, and from that social fact has come the economic fact that this is good news for anybody in the fish business. Take, for example, those who have figured out a way to make a cheaper kind of crab and lobster -- a way, nobody should be surprised to hear, that comes by way of Japan. Our report is from Victoria Fung of public station KCTS-Seattle.

VICTORIA FUNG, KCTS [voice-over]: If that inexpensive seafood salad you had for lunch came heaped with a generous portion of crabmeat, chances are that wasn't crabmeat at all. It was most likely a clever imitation, something called surimi, a processed fish mixture that's flavored and shaped to look like real crab. Surimi has been a main staple in Japan for centuries. In fact, the Japanese invented it. And like just about eveything else they've introduced to U.S. markets, their imitation seafood has been drawing rave reviews. Since 1978 sales have doubled and tripled to a point where Americans will gobble up about 150 million pounds of pseudo crab, lobster and scallops this year. That'll amount to retail sales close to $750 million. The biggest advantage of these blended seafood products is the price. They're a fraction of the cost of the real thing. And most people seem to like the taste.

1st CONSUMER: Great, what is it?

FUNG: It's imitation crab.

1st CONSUMER: Doesn't taste like imitation to me.

2nd CONSUMER: Imitation? Imitation crabmeat! Not as good as the real.

FUNG [voice-over]: Surimi is made in several Asian countries, but one nation dominates.

[on camera] When it comes to the production of imitation seafood, Japan definitely has a corner on the market. Japan produces the raw fish paste almost exclusively, and it makes about 90 of all surimi-based products. The U.S. has only a handful of imitation seafood plants. One of them is here in Redmond, Washington.

[voice-over] This is an American subsidiary of Kibun Corporation. Kibun is the largest manufacturer of surimi products in Japan. The company makes imitation crab, scallops and lobster for the U.S. and markets under the label "delicacies." Kibun is in hot pursuit of the burgeoning U.S. market, making its products locally. Since this plant in Redmond, Washington, started up just over a year ago, production has tripled. Now it turns out one and a half tons of blended seafood a day. And officials say they're not close to meeting the demand for their products. Kibun's imitation crab legs and sliced crab for salads are the hottest-selling items.

HANK GARRUTH, Kibun Corporation: Both are mainly popular from what we've understood as more economics than anything else. We offer the product that has pretty similar taste and texture for about a sixth of the cost. We aim towards the middle-class people. They're the people that like crab, buy crab, but can't buy it as often as they want. So our product is a very good substitute for them.

FUNG [voice-over]: So what goes into the production of man-made crab legs? Kibun starts off with surimi, a paste made from a cheap abundant fish, usually Alaskan pollack. The surimi is mixed with real shellfish, flavorings and binders, like starch or egg whites. Then it's extruded into sheets and steamed. The cooked sheets are rolled into sticks that look like crab legs and artificial coloring is applied. The sticks are wrapped in plastic and then vacuum packed. The product is cooked a second time and then flash frozen. The sticks here are being sliced for use in salads. Finally the product is put into the familiar retail packaging you see at the supermarket.

[interviewing] Do you believe surimi-based products are cutting into the conventional seafood market?

Mr. GARRUTH: I don't think so. Again, we're gearing more towards the people that really can't afford to go out and buy Alaskan king crab. I think at the last market it was $18 or $19 a pound. There's not too many people out there that can shell out that kind of money too often. But ours at about $5 a pound is just much more readily available.

FUNG [voice-over]: With the skyrocketing imitation seafood market, the U.S. wants to get a piece of the action. American companies have their eye on making not only surimi products, but also the basic fish paste itself. Right now surimi is made exclusively in the Far East, mostly with fish caught in U.S. waters. Lobbyists from the American seafood processing industry want to turn that around and prevent foreign countries from harvesting U.S. sh.

ROBERT MORGAN, Pacific Seafood Processors Association: The potential for the use of surimi is so vast that it's almost beyond comprehension. We want to participate in it, and we're making every effort to influence some legislation so that we will have exclusive access to the resource so that we can be the producer of surimi for the United States.

Mr. GARRUTH: We don't consider ourselves a monopoly in it, in the fact that we've come to this country to produce the product. We've introduced, obviously, American workers so that they know now how to produce the products. As each line comes in, we bid out to more and more American manufacturers for the machinery to be made in this country. We want to share our knowledge. The only reason some people, I guess, call us -- I'm not Japanese -- but call our company and other ones a monopoly is that we are the only ones with the technology. That we'll admit.

FUNG: By all predictions, the market for surimi products will continue to soar. But not just because of an American penchant for a low-cost fish dish. In the near future we may see some items with a real twist, like surimi cold cuts, surimi pasta, even surimi ice cream.

LEHRER: That report by Victoria Fung of KCTS-Seattle. Hurricane Elena

LEHRER: Back to the hurricane now. Elena does seem to have a bead on the state of Florida. Tom Lewis heads the state's Department of Community Affairs and he is with us now from public station WFSU in Tallahassee.

Mr. Lewis, I understand that in your state, you have imposed mandatory evacuation. Is that correct?

TOM LEWIS: That's correct, Jim. The governor earlier today ordered mandatory evacuation from Pensacola to Apalachicola. We have a number of counties that are east of the Apalachicola area that are also involved in some selective evacuation at this time.

LEHRER: Now, mandatory means just what mandatory means?

Mr. LEWIS: Well, mandatory means it enables the law enforcement officials to go out and knock on the doors and in the strongest terms possible persuade the occupants that it's serious and they need to leave.

LEHRER: Now, the wire reports I saw said that there were some folks that were resisting and you all were having some trouble. Can you give me a feel for what the nature of that trouble is?

Mr. LEWIS: Well, one of the biggest concerns that we have in hurricane emergency management is that folks don't take it serious, and it is very serious. And we did have some people in certain areas around Pensacola that said, "Well, we're going to ride out the storm." So we thought that the governor's mandating the evacuation would assist in maybe getting those people to safety.

LEHRER: Now, so then what happened?

Mr. LEWIS: We were successful in the two areas that we were aware of earlier today around the Pensacola area in completing the evacuation on some island locations south of Pensacola.

LEHRER: I mean, did it get to a point where these people had to literally be forced to move?

Mr. LEWIS: Not to my knowledge. That was not required. And the governor's order was the strongest order it could be, but he did not require that any arresting be done, and I don't think any of that was necessary.

LEHRER: All right. As we're talking now, how do you see the threat and where, specifically in your state?

Mr. LEWIS: Well, I probably have a different answer to that now than I might have about an hour ago. And part of our major concerns are the uncertainty at this point in time. We've been dealing with a hurricane warning that extended from west of New Orleans to Apalachicola. The latest advice that we got, they're going to extend the hurricane warning around the panhandle of Florida down to Tarpon Springs area, which is just north of Tampa. So we're dealing in Florida with a much bigger area than we were up to about an hour ago.

LEHRER: All right, Now, how many people in your state have been evacuated, or can you give me an estimate at all?

Mr. LEWIS: Jim, the area that was mandated evacuation had a capacity of about 300,000 people eligible for evacuation. At this point in time we believe somewhere between 125,000 and 200,000 people have been evacuated. We've got about 15,000 people in some 75 shelters. Our reports -- our studies normally show that more people will go to a friend's home or to a motel than they will a shelter, and we think evidenced by the fact that most of the motels in the panhandle of Florida are reported to be filled, but that's probably the case with this hurricane as well.

LEHRER: What do you tell people? Do you tell them where to go or you tell them just to go? I mean, are there evacuation routes? Or do you say go to such-and-such a town, you people from this area go there? Or how does that work?

Mr. LEWIS: It works just about that way. We tell them both to go and we tell them where to go -- evacuation routes are marked. There are citizen assistance lines that are set up both in the local areas as well as a toll-free line here in Tallahassee, and we provide the answers to all those questions.

LEHRER: What about folks -- the elderly, people in hospitals who can't just get up and go? What do you do for them?

Mr. LEWIS: Well, there's obviously assistance that's granted there. We're very fortunate in this hurricane that at this point in time it is not headed toward the southern part of our state where there is a very high percentage of elderly, particularly living in high-rise buildings, and some of which are disabled.

LEHRER: Yeah. People have already begun -- the thing hasn't even really hit yet and people are already beginning to call this thing a billion-dollar hurricane. Do you anticipate severe, I mean really severe damage to your state?

Mr. LEWIS: The type of storm we're dealing with now and the input we've had from the National Hurricane Center, it has that potential. And quite frankly, a $1 billion hurricane is maybe in some folks' mind not a major hurricane. You can get into the multibillions of dollars in damage. But it's a very serious thing; we're very concerned about it -- the uncertainty of where it's located at the present time, the length of the warning area and the fact that we're hitting nightfall. We're very fortunate, I think, in Florida. Governor Graham's public safety, emergency management are very high priorities with him, and we've done a lot of preplanning for this type of event, and I think probably Florida is the best prepared coastal state for emergency management of a hurricane of this type.

LEHRER: Well, Mr. Lewis, thank you very much and good luck to you and everyone else in Florida tonight and in the morning.

Mr. LEWIS: Thank you very much.

LEHRER: Robin?

MacNEIL: Now we discuss the nature of the storm itself with Neil Frank, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. We join him at the center, where he's been tracking Elena's progress minute by minute.

Mr. Frank, what's the latest on the direction and expected landfall and time?

NEIL FRANK: Well, we've got a real dilemma tonight. You know, hurricanes move along in rivers of air just like blocks of wood move along on rivers of water, with one big difference: in the atmosphere, of course, we don't have any riverbanks. And what's happened today is the river has dried up, so that the steering currents that had been pushing this storm along are quite weak. Now, during the afternoon the Air Force planes have indicated that it looks like it's moving towards the northeast, and so it forced us to move our warnings further east. So we've got warnings down to Tarpon Springs and it released the threat a bit over the Alabama and Mississippi and Louisiana area.

MacNEIL: I see. Could it still change course significantly?

Mr. FRANK: Well, certainly, because we got very weak rivers, you know, over top of it, and we don't see anything in the next two or three days that's going to come down and pick this storm up and move it someplace quite rapidly. Now, it's possible that it could continue to move on to the Northeast; the center could cross the coast and we would hope that it would do that, because then it would weaken without getting any stronger.

MacNEIL: I see. How bad is Elena compared with other recent hurricanes?

Mr. FRANK: Well, if you talk about this storm on a relative scale of one to five, and we call that a Sanford Simpson hurricane scale, this is a category two. So it's a very respectable hurricane, but not into the severe category, like the Camille that hit the Mississippi coast in 1969.

MacNEIL: I see. How high are the highest winds at its center now?

Mr. FRANK: About a hundred miles an hour. And you know, we have building codes that gives you a major protection with that kind of wind. If the winds go over a hundred miles an hour, then you expect to see a lot more damage.

MacNEIL: Could it still become more severe? Could the wind speeds increase as it approaches the coast?

Mr. FRANK: Absolutely. As long as that centers out over the warm water there is a threat that it could go ahead and strengthen. But this afternoon there's no indication that that trend is taking place.

MacNEIL: Can you give us a simple explanation of how that happens, how it strengthens while it's out over the sea?

Mr. FRANK: Well, the water, the warm water provides a fuel for the whole hurricane system. And so as long as it stays out over that warm water, then there's a chance of it strengthening.

MacNEIL: What specific dangers to people and property does a hurricane of this intensity present?

Mr. FRANK: Well, there's three aspects of the hurricane that we worry about. Everybody knows that hurricanes are wind, everybody knows that hurricanes can have heavy rains, but it's the storm surge that is so devastating. That's this dome of saltwater that could sweep across the coastline and literally put many of these islands under water. And that's why evacuation is necessary.

MacNEIL: I see. Can people -- is it reasonable to think that people who wanted to ride out the storm can do so safely?

Mr. FRANK: Well, listen, I wouldn't stay on any of those little islands. A lot of those islands are no more than three or four feet high at their most, and eight or 12 foot of storm surge running over the top of that island would mean that the water could be as much as five-, six-, seven-foot deep. You just don't want to be on one of those little islands when a storm surge rolls over.

MacNEIL: And what about the danger of tornadoes?

Mr. FRANK: Oh, yes. Hurricanes do spawn tornadoes, and any time you have a hurricane like that, there's a risk that you might have a tornado. But that's generally under a small area and that's not the major, major danger in a hurricane.

MacNEIL: I see. Why does it spawn tornadoes?

Mr. FRANK: Well, any time you have severe thunderstorms there's a chance that you can get a tornado, and some of the thunderstorms that we have associated with hurricanes are severe.

MacNEIL: What is the most probable course of the hurricane after it hits the Florida coast, assuming it stays on the course you've got it on now?

Mr. FRANK: Well, if it would move on inland tonight, then we still perceive that there's not going to be a major river come down and pick it up and move it off someplace, and so it could linger around that southeastern part of the United States and have very, very heavy rains with it.

MacNEIL: I see. Well, Mr. Frank, thank you very much for joining us from Miami. Doctor K

MacNEIL: And finally tonight, we have an essay. Everybody knows that in the game of baseball, three strikes and you're out. To be precise, a strikeout. What a lot more people, including me, now know is that the scorekeepers' symbol for a strikeout is the letter K. We know this because this year an extraordinary young pitcher has recorded so many strikeouts that he's earned the nickname Doctor K. His name is Dwight Gooden, and we hear more about him from our regular sports essayist Mike Lupica of the New York Daily News.

MIKE LUPICA: Ted Williams, whom many call the greatest hitter of them all, once said that the most difficult thing in sports is to hit a baseball pitched from 60 feet, six inches away. Williams has been retired for 25 years, but right now his words haunt every big-league hitter who has to face Dwight Gooden, the remarkable 20-year-old who pitches for the New York Mets.

[voice-over] In only his second year in the majors, Gooden's incredible achievements are coming at the blinding speed of one of his fastballs. Last Sunday Gooden became the youngest pitcher ever to win 20 games in a season. The week before he became only the second pitcher to strike out 200 batters in his first two seasons. He also just happens to lead the majors in earned run average as well as strikeouts. Mets' manager Davey Johnson says there was never a doubt in his mind about Gooden's greatness.

DAVEY JOHNSON, New York Mets manager: When I saw him at age 17 I said to myself here's one of the greatest pitchers that I've ever seen, and the best pitching prospect I've ever seen. And I saw Palmer when he came along. He does things that seem normal, you know, and he makes it look so easy and everything he does is -- you'd have to grade him eight. You know, that's the highest you can grade in major-league standards.

LUPICA [voice-over]: Fred Wilpon, president of the Mets, played on the same high school baseball teams as Dodger pitching great and Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax.

[interviewing] Have you talked to Sandy Koufax about the kid?

FRED WILPON, president, New York Mets: Oh, yeah, sure.

LUPICA: What does he think of Gooden?

Mr. WILPON: He thinks if he doesn't get hurt and he keeps healthy and doesn't obviously burn himself out in any way, God forbid, that he probably will break every record that was ever set.

LUPICA [voice-over]: Baseball veterans most often compare Gooden's artistic pitching style to Koufax's and Bob Gibson's, another Hall of Famer who pitched for the St. Louis Cardinals. Like Koufax and like Gibson, Gooden has an overpowering fastball. Gooden's fastball is regularly clocked in the mid-90s by the Met radar gun. What's it like to be on the wrong end of a Gooden fastball? Here, take a look.

Take another look.

Maybe you'll have a better chance in slow motion.

Now, if you thought that was unhittable, perhaps you'd prefer Gooden's curve, a curve that again evokes memories of Koufax. See? Ted Williams was right.

What is most impressive about Gooden is not the overpowering nature of his fastball or the curve of his curve; it's the fact that he's done all this at the tender ages of 19 and 20. Pitchers usually don't reach their prime until their late 20s or early 30s. New York Mets broadcaster and former major-league catcher Tim McCarver explains Gooden's precociousness this way.

TIM McCARVER, New York Mets broadcaster: Well, I think he's the best example for reincarnation and for those who believe in that of anybody I've ever run into, because there's no way to learn as many things as he's learned in a short period of time, in 20 years. So he's had to have lived another life.

LUPICA [voice-over]: Gooden pitches like he's been in the big leagues all his life. When he's in a jam, such as during this game against the Los AngelesDodgers, bottom of the eighth, based loaded, no outs, it's then that Gooden shows his stuff. Dodger manager Tommy LaSorda says he's given up telling batters how to hit against Gooden.

TOMMY LaSORDA, Los Angeles Dodgers manager: If I could teach them how to hit off of Gooden, I'd be standing in my living room and the club owners would be in line trying to hire me. How do you tell them how to hit off of a great pitcher like him?

LUPICA [voice-over]: Gooden's flare and sense for drama has made his starts one of the most electrifying events in baseball, perhaps all of sports. The crowd becomes a stomping, clapping, cheering orchestra as soon as the maestro gets two strikes. Then comes two explosions of strike three: the sound of the ball hitting the catcher's mitt and the thunderclap of noise rolling down from the stands. Nowhere are Gooden's strikeouts appreciated more than they are here, an area in Shea Stadium called the K Corner. Each time a batter goes down swinging or looking longingly at a called strike three, another K is ceremoniously placed over the railing.

[on camera] The residents of the K Corner are like the rest of us. They wonder what this phenom will be like in two years or three or even 10. We all wait for Gooden's first no-hitter, his first 30-win season, because the kid makes you believe anything is possible. And here in the K corner, he makes them believe in miracles. Each time their hero pitches they bring 27 K cards.

[voice-over] It would be perfection, of course -- nine complete innings of strikeouts. It's never ever been done. No one's even come close. But you ask them about the 27 Ks, and they say "just in case," and then they smile.

LEHRER: Dwight Gooden as seen by Mike Lupica of the New York Daily News. Again, the major stories of this Friday. Hurricane Elena's 100-mile-an-hour force has set off huge waves, heavy rain and strong winds. The storm is expected to get worse before it hits land along the Gulf Coast tomorrow. The major target area appears to be in the Florida panhandle, but now it has moved further south and east. But thousands have also been evacuated from low-lying areas of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. In South Africa there was violence between stone-throwing mobs and the police, as the death toll since Wednesday rose to 31. And the Defense Department announced routine testing of all military recruits for AIDS will begin by October 1st.

Good night, Robin.

MacNEIL: Good night, Jim. That's our NewsHour tonight. Have a nice Labor Day weekend. We'll see you on Monday night. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.