The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MAC NEIL: Good evening. I'm Robert MacNeil in New York.

MR. LEHRER: And I'm Jim Lehrer in Washington. After our summary of the news this Tuesday, we cover two major stories involving Japan, U.S. Trade Rep. Mickey Kantor and the Japanese ambassador to the United States give their differing versions of the escalating fight over cars, then a Japanese journalist and a cult expert look at the latest in the Tokyo subway terrorism investigation. We close with a Spencer Michels report on the fallout from a highway collapse in California. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: The U.S. government announced trade action against Japan today. Thirteen Japanese luxury cars will be subject to 100 percent tariffs if the dispute is not resolved by June 28th. U.S. Trade Rep. Mickey Kantor said the move was necessary to open the Japanese auto market to U.S. products. President Clinton spoke about it before a White House meeting with congressional leaders this morning.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: If you look at the special problem of autos and auto parts and how long we have labored over it and how reasonable the United States has been for years, even for more than a decade, I believe that this is something we have to go forward on. The Japanese government has acknowledged that we have important security interests and other interests in common and that we cannot let our entire relationship be wrecked by this. That is a welcome observation by them, and I agree with them, but we can't any more deny this or sweep it under the rug. We've got to go forward. We're going to do that.

MR. LEHRER: Japanese officials said they would immediately appeal to the World Trade Organization, but Japan's vice minister for international trade said they were not concurrently considering counter sanctions on U.S. products. The U.S. action was welcomed by American automobile manufacturers but criticized by groups representing foreign car dealers.

WALTER HUIZENGA, American International Auto Dealers Association: Without regard to the merits of the dispute between the United States and Japan, what the United States government has done today is place in jeopardy the businesses of over 2,000 U.S. small business men and women and the 81,000 households that are served as employees of those businesses and millions of American consumers.

MR. LEHRER: We'll have more on the story right after this News Summary. In economic news today, the Federal Reserve reported industrial production fell .4 percent last month. The decrease was led by a drop in automobile manufacturing. And the Commerce Department reported housing starts were up in April. The rise was .4 percent. Robin.

MR. MAC NEIL: Police in Japan today arrested the leader of the cult suspected in the nerve gas attack on Tokyo subways. Shoko Asahara and 14 of his followers were caught after thousands of police raided more than a hundred facilities of the Aum Shinri Kyo cult. Asahara is being charged with murder and attempted murder in the March attack which killed 12 people and sickened more than 5,000. Several hours after the arrest, a package bomb exploded at Tokyo's town hall, seriously injuring one person. It had been addressed to Tokyo's governor who supervised the police investigation. Police do not know if it's connected to the cult investigation. Back in this country, an attorney for one of the suspects in the Oklahoma bombing filed a motion to delay demolition of the federal office building in Oklahoma City. Timothy McVeigh's attorney says he wants to conduct his own investigation of the bombing site before it is destroyed.

MR. LEHRER: The United Nations today rejected a request for air strikes against Serb forces in Sarajevo. The U.N. said the Bosnian government was responsible for starting today's fighting in the capital. We have more in this report from Paul Davies of Independent Television News.

PAUL DAVIES, ITN: Each side is accusing the other of starting it. But Sarajevo is once again a battlefield, the fighting worse than anything this city has seen since the grim days of 1992. Civilians ran for their lives, and U.N. soldiers raced for the safety of bunkers as the Bosnian army and the Serbs who surround the city traded artillery and mortar fire for hours on end.

ALEXANDER IVANKO, U.N. Spokesperson: Both parties are blaming each other for starting the fighting, but in UNPROFOR's opinion, both parties are equally to blame.

PAUL DAVIES: For that reason, the U.N. has rejected calls for air strikes against the Serbs. Many observers say the Muslim-led Bosnian army seen here moving against Serbian positions initiated today's battle. While politicians, in general, point fingers of blame, a 12-year-old boy fights for his life while his mother weeps for her daughter, killed by the same exploding shell.

MR. LEHRER: Thousands of Cuban-Americans demonstrated in Miami today against U.S. policy on Cuban refugees. For the last two weeks, the United States has been repatriating Cubans who try to flee their country. Demonstrators walked offtheir jobs this afternoon, shutting many stores and businesses. Some Cuban- American employers gave workers leave time to join that protest.

MR. MAC NEIL: Health officials in Zaire today located a nurse they believe might have carried the deadly Ebola virus to the capital, Kinshasa. She's being tested there for the virus. Ebola has already killed 86 people, and doctors are predicting the death toll will rise. A 3200-year-old tomb has been discovered in Egypt's Valley of the Kings. American and Egyptian archaeologists have unearthed 67 chambers so far but believe there may be as many as 100. The tomb was built for 50 of the sons of Pharaoh Ramses II, who ruled between 1290 and 1224 BC. It may the largest burial chamber ever found in Egypt.

MR. LEHRER: And that's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to two Japan stories, the trade fight over cars, and the terrorist charges against a cult, plus a report from California about a fallen highway. FOCUS - TRADE TANGLE

MR. LEHRER: The car fight between the United States and Japan is our lead story tonight. The long-running trade dispute came to a head today with the announcement of a major sanction threat by the United States. We cover it now with back-to-back interviews with officials from both countries, beginning with U.S. Trade Rep. Mickey Kantor. I spoke to him this afternoon from the Old Executive Office Building. Mr. Kantor, welcome.

MICKEY KANTOR, U.S. Trade Representative: Thank you, Jim. Nice to see you.

MR. LEHRER: Well, good to see you. Let's go through the specifics of what you are proposing: 100 percent tariffs on 13 models of Japanese cars. Now, what does a 100 percent tariff mean?

MICKEY KANTOR: Well, basically, you're going to double the price of that car. The fact is this is in response to 35 years that the Japanese have restricted or kept U.S. autos and auto parts out of their market where they've had unrestricted access to the U.S. market. Just to give you one statistic -- and I won't bore you with a lot of numbers -- in the last 25 years, the Japanese have sold 40 million cars in the U.S. market. In that period of time, we've sold only 400,000 cars in their market, about a hundred to one ratio. It's time we opened their market and allowed U.S. companies and auto parts and auto companies to compete fairly.

MR. LEHRER: Is it -- is it your position that the reason we've sold so many fewer cars there than they've sold here is solely because of government restrictions on the market?

MICKEY KANTOR: It's government restrictions; it's complicity between manufacturers, dealers, suppliers, and auto shops in Japan. It's a whole system of regulations, policies, acts, and practices which have kept U.S. and other foreign competitive products out of the market. And by the way, Jim, in July, 1993, the President and the prime minister of Japan reached an agreement to open up this sector, auto parts and autos, and the Japanese have not lived up to that agreement, unfortunately.

MR. LEHRER: As you know, many of the Japanese manufacturers and government officials say the reason, the reason Japanese -- the Japanese consumer does not buy American cars is because they prefer Japanese cars to American cars. You just don't buy that?

MICKEY KANTOR: Not at all. Let me just give you one incident. There was a poll done by the Department of Commerce and MITI -- that's the Japanese trade department -- in 1994. It indicated 70 percent of the Japanese public were in the market to buy foreign competitive cars or would pay those prices, which frankly, are lower than Japanese prices -- would buy U.S. or other foreign competitive automobiles. So, therefore, that's just not correct. It used to be said, of course, that we didn't have the right products. We have 101 products available today for Japan, 16 models, 10 models are right-hand drive, 60 products are right-hand drive, and 51 of the 60 products have engines of 2000 CC or less, in other words, small cars. And so we have met the challenge of the Japanese market. American automobile manufacturers have never been more productive and competitive, nor have our workers, and in the auto parts sector, if it wasn't for Japan, we'd have a $5 billion surplus with the world. So, therefore, we've been locked out of the market. It's not fair, needs to be changed. What we're trying to do is not only help American workers and American companies but Japanese consumers as well, who pay too much for car repairs and pay too much for automobiles.

MR. LEHRER: All right. Now you've set a June 28th deadline. These tariffs go into effect on June 28th, if the Japanese don't do -- what is it that the Japanese need to do by June the 28th?

MICKEY KANTOR: Deregulate what is known as the after market, Jim, and, and the -- in the purchase of auto parts, i.e., the parts that go into your car when it's fixed or during inspection, that needs to be deregulated in a way that allows foreign competitive parts, U.S. parts included, to be sold fairly. Second, to open up their dealerships. We're not asking for a market share. We're not asking for a target for selling autos, just open up your dealerships, quit intimidating your dealers, allow them to carry foreign competitive automobiles so we can compete fairly in a market, and third, of course, let's allow U.S. and other foreign competitive parts to be put in at the factory level. That's not happening in Japan.

MR. LEHRER: Now, who will decide whether or not what they do is satisfactory by June the 28th? In other words, it's not enough for them just to sit down and say, okay, we'll talk about this. You want action, specific action that meets the specifics that, that you've set out?

MICKEY KANTOR: We -- we have discussed an agreement now for 20 months, and we're clearly somewhat frustrated. We have set out in great detail what needs to be done. We've made very little progress. The Japanese officials we have -- we have negotiated with, their ministers and their officials and the experts, know exactly what they need to do. Frankly, there are a number of commentators in Japan, public officials in Japan, and others, who've said they should open up their market. It's time. Thirty- five years of protection is enough.

MR. LEHRER: All right. Now, these 13 models that you selected for the 100 percent tariffs, why were they selected?

MICKEY KANTOR: Well, they would have the least impact on U.S. consumers, on U.S. workers, on frankly, our marketplace. They're very high-priced automobiles. They only are bought by very selective individuals in America. Of the 48,000 dealerships in our country, only 617 carry these cars exclusively, and most of them are part of what we call mega dealerships, where they carry other cars as well in other parts of their operation, so, therefore, this would have the least impact on the U.S. but have the most impact, frankly, on Japan.

MR. LEHRER: And that's the --

MICKEY KANTOR: And all of these cars -- let me add, Jim --

MR. LEHRER: Sure.

MICKEY KANTOR: -- all of these cars, every one of them, are totally produced in Japan.

MR. LEHRER: And that's the Accura, the Infinity, and the Lexus are the -- and they're, most of them --

MICKEY KANTOR: And Mazda and Mitsubishi also have three of the models as well.

MR. LEHRER: Okay. And most of them are $30,000 or more.

MICKEY KANTOR: Yeah. About $32,000 or more, yeah, that's exactly right.

MR. LEHRER: So under this proposal, they would suddenly cost sixty? If a car now costs $30,000, it would cost $60,000?

MICKEY KANTOR: If we decide to impose the sanctions in the way we announced today -- and, of course, we have the flexibility until June 28th. As you know, in the U.S., we have a process we have to go through. We have to publish a notice in the Federal Registry. We have to have public hearings. We have to listen to people carefully to see if what we've done is acceptable. If it is, of course, then we will -- without an agreement, if we have no satisfactory and meaningful solution -- we'll move forward on the 28th of June. We want a meaningful agreement. We want to open the market. We'd like to sell U.S. parts and U.S. cars in the second largest market in the world, which is Japan. We have not been allowed to do so for 35 years. It's time that that stops.

MR. LEHRER: Do you expect the Japanese to go along with this?

MICKEY KANTOR: Well, we'll see. There have been some interesting observations out of Japan today -- some observations, they'd like to sit down in the next 10 days. This was a public statement by their ministry of trade -- other observations -- they don't want this to affect the bilateral relationship as a whole. And we don't want it to either. So there's been some, some signs in Japan today that there may be some flexibility. We'll see.

MR. LEHRER: You don't expect then for them to announce immediate retaliation against the -- in other words, if this goes through on June the 28th, on June the 29th, we'll do this, et cetera, and on down the road?

MICKEY KANTOR: In fact, they said today they would not retaliate.

MR. LEHRER: And you don't expect them to?

MICKEY KANTOR: Well, I don't. That's what they said today -- they would not do so.

MR. LEHRER: Yeah. What about -- the representatives of various foreign car dealers in the United States have taken, you know, great negative -- have given great negative reaction to your actions, saying that 2,000 small businesses and 81,000 American families are going to be affected by this if this thing goes through.

MICKEY KANTOR: They're going to give hyperbole a bad name. That's just not the facts. Let's look at who is affected. The U.S. car industry is our largest industry. It employs directly 2 1/2 million people in the manufacturers, in the suppliers, and in the dealers, themselves. It represents 5 percent of our Gross National Product. It's the largest purchaser of steel, of iron, of platinum, of aluminum, of flat glass, of natural rubber, of synthetic rubber, and one of the largest purchasers of, of semiconductors as well. It has an enormous impact on our economy. Our workers have been hurt for years by Japan's refusal to open its economy. All we're asking is, Japan play fair, level the playing field, act like the power that you are, allow American companies to compete fairly. I don't think that's too much to ask of any great ally.

MR. LEHRER: And you don't believe that these -- you don't believe these figures, that the impact on Americans, also on -- what about the American consumer, who wants -- who's been buying these cars for $30,000 and now suddenly can't do it?

MICKEY KANTOR: Well, I'd love to see them go look at some fine American cars and buy those. There are American cars in that class and they're well made, and they can compete with any cars in the world. They could buy a very fine car and help American workers at the same time.

MR. LEHRER: All right. Mr. Kantor, thank you very much.

MICKEY KANTOR: Thank you, Jim, very much. Appreciate it.

MR. LEHRER: And now, the Japanese view of this. Dr. Takakazu Kuriyama is Japan's ambassador to the United States. Mr. Ambassador, welcome. Is the United States' threatened action justified?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA, Ambassador, Japan: Well, we think the U.S. unilateral action is clearly contrary to the WTO rules, and it --

MR. LEHRER: World Trade Organization.

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Yes. And it undermines the rule of law in international trade.

MR. LEHRER: What about the basic complaint that we just heard Amb. Kantor repeat many many times -- 35 years of our having an unrestricted market to Japanese products versus 35 years of a restricted market in Japan, true or false?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Well, 35 years ago, I can certainly admit that the Japanese market was closed, but I certainly don't accept that today the Japanese market is still closed, because the U.S. exports, car exports to Japan, is increasing quite rapidly. Your exports to Japan of passenger cars is now comparable to your exports to the whole of the European Union Market, and the same goes with your -- your exports of auto parts.

MR. LEHRER: So when he says all the United States wants is a level playing field, you're saying there already is a level playing field?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Well, we think we are -- our market is -- is not as closed as Amb. Kantor argues, and as far as deregulation goes, Amb. Kantor knows very well that we put significant proposals to, to meet the U.S. requests. So we think there was -- there was a very good measure -- room for reaching agreement, but unfortunately, the U.S. side insisted all along that without the so-called voluntary plan by Japanese car makers, which would commit themselves to purchasing certain amounts of U.S.-made auto parts, that there would be no agreement, and our car makers were not willing to do that. Our government cannot force the car makers to do that, so that was -- that was really the major sticking point.

MR. LEHRER: The three things then -- the three things that he just outlined that he wants you all to do, deregulate the after market, meaning the inspections --

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Yes.

MR. LEHRER: -- and all of that, open up the dealerships, that was agreed -- you are all willing to do that?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Oh, yes. Amb. Kantor knows that we, we were prepared to negotiate in good faith, and there were -- I think we made very meaningful proposals for deregulation. The only thing we couldn't accept there was -- as far as deregulation goes -- is complete separation of inspection and maintenance, and on that point, from our own experience and the experience elsewhere, we didn't think we could accept for public safety reasons.

MR. LEHRER: But the big sticking point was, does this allow U.S. or foreign -- from a Japanese context -- foreign parts in Japanese- made cars as they are allowed here? In other words, his argument, as you know, is, my goodness, Japanese parts or American-made parts go into Japanese cars and visa versa, but that is not allowed in Japan, is that right?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Well, it is allowed in Japan. In every market, I think there is a high degree of correlation between parts imports and imports of, of vehicles. It's the same in the U.S. market. It's also same in the, in the European market. In Japan, of course, auto parts imports are relatively low so far, but that's because American cars, the import level of U.S.-made cars are still relatively low. And -- but we are -- we would be very happy to see so many models of U.S.-made cars made available in the Japanese market. So far, we have only two models made available in the, in the Japanese market, with, with right-hand drive.

MR. LEHRER: Right-hand drive. The ambassador says that that's changed.

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Yes. We are happy to see Detroit coming in with more models which, which is a compact size, and with the steering wheel on the right-hand side.

MR. LEHRER: Well, what then is the Japanese position as to why more American cars are not sold in Japan? If you say the playing field is pretty much level already, what is the problem?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Well, I think the main reason is, is now today, is that Detroit has not made enough effort to, to penetrate into the Japanese market. Some European car makers are doing very well. We told Amb. Kantor that 80 percent of the Japanese market consists of, of a market for those compact size --

MR. LEHRER: Small cars, right-hand drive.

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: -- small cars -- and unfortunately, the big three, so far, haven't made available any single model of that size. There are two models which are now selling very well in Japan. One is Cherokee, Chrysler Cherokee, and the other is Ford Probe. And they are both selling very well in Japan, but they are of larger size.

MR. LEHRER: Now, what about the point that he made about opening dealerships and not intimidating the Japanese dealers to keep American cars out?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Yes, yes. Well, we told the American side that we are prepared to, to help them, help the American exporters to, to move into arrangements with some of our dealerships. The -- our auto makers are already told about our, our anti-monopoly law regulations, and they are not restricting the dealerships to sell, sell imported cars. Actually, something like 18 percent of our showrooms do carry, you know, imported cars, and the comparable statistics in this country, according to the surveys made by the, by MITI, Japanese MITI and U.S. Department of Commerce, the comparable figure in this car is 22 percent. So as far as the openness of the dealerships is concerned, the level is almost comparable.

MR. LEHRER: It -- having listened to these two interviews back- to-back, would -- it would be understandable if a viewer were to say, what world, what world are we talking about here, because his view of it and your view of it is, is so different. Why is that?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Well, some of the statistics, I think, are misrepresented. And, of course, Amb. Kantor, from what I heard him on the -- on the video -- he was talking about the past, and certainly in the past, say 30 years ago, it's true that the Japanese market was closed. But in recent years, it's become much more open.

MR. LEHRER: All right. Now, where does this thing go now, Mr. Ambassador? He said you've been negotiating to try to resolve these things for 20 months with very little progress. Do you expect anything to happen between now and June 28th?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Well, I don't know, but that's why we -- we are now going to Geneva, and --

MR. LEHRER: That's the World Trade Organization headquarters.

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: That's right, WTO, and we would like to, to have the issue resolved there according to the GATT and WTO rules.

MR. LEHRER: And not in negotiations.

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: If necessary by, if necessary by a third party.

MR. LEHRER: I see.

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA:Yes.

MR. LEHRER: Because you don't, you don't believe it can be resolved by negotiation between the United States and Japan by the 28th?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Well, we are prepared to continue to negotiate in good faith as far as those issues concerning deregulation and other regulations which, which fall within the responsibility of the government, but if the United States continues to insist that there would be no agreement without certain things which the government cannot force our industries to do, something such as the so-called "voluntary plans," and, and some specific number of dealerships to, to be opened, these things the government cannot force the industries to do.

MR. LEHRER: How likely is it, Mr. Ambassador, finally, that, that Japan will retaliate? If this thing goes -- if this thing is not resolved by June 28th, and on June 29th, these 100 percent tariffs go on to these 13 car models, what is Japan likely to do about it?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Well, we -- as we think that this is clearly against the, the international rules, we, we are confident that the WTO ruling will, will be such that the U.S. unilateral action is, is against the rules.

MR. LEHRER: So that's the route you will pursue it with. Rather than take another unilateral action in response, you'll try to get the WTO to respond?

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: We want to, to respect the rule of law in international trade as much as possible, and, and the rule of law is, is the principle, I think, both the United States and Japan must respect.

MR. LEHRER: All right. Mr. Ambassador, thank you very much.

TAKAKAZU KURIYAMA: Thank you very much.

MR. MAC NEIL: Still ahead, the Japanese cult charged in the subway gassing and the California Highway known as the "Devil's Slide." FOCUS - CULT CRACKDOWN

MR. MAC NEIL: Next tonight, another story from Japan with familiar echoes in the United States, that of cults and violence. In Japan today, there was a massive police raid and the arrest of the cult leader suspected of the nerve gas attack in the Tokyo subway two months ago. We start with a report on the police raid and its aftermath. The correspondent is Lindsay Taylor of Independent Television News.

LINDSAY TAYLOR, ITN: The media called it X-Day, the arrest of the doomsday cult leader, his days in hiding at an end. Scores of Japanese police moved in on the remote headquarters of the Aum sect suspected of carrying out the deadly sarin attack on the Tokyo subway. Most had gas masks, some carried canaries. This was a hugely public operation. It had been widely expected, with camera teams camped outside for days. Police used heavy cutting equipment to break into the premises but were met with no resistance. Suspected cult members, some clearly unhappy about the dawn raids, were rounded up and led away to waiting police vehicles. Soon they were joined by the cult leader, Shoko Asahara, who'd been meditating in a secret chamber between two floors. He was driven away in an armored vehicle, almost hidden from view. Police said the 40-year-old cult leader would be charged with murder and attempted murder for the March's subway attack, the investigators' case reportedly strengthened after confessions from other cult members. Twelve people were killed and more than five thousand were taken ill in the indiscriminate poison gas attack which created a wave of fear and at times, near hysteria in Japan. Today's arrest was covered live by Japanese television which followed Asahara's journey right to the police station, to the relief of many for whom the cult leader has, rightly or wrongly, become a demon figure.

SPOKESMAN: (speaking through interpreter) I'm glad he's been arrested. I think the country will be safe again.

LINDSAY TAYLOR: The Japanese prime minister congratulated the police on their work, but there was from his government a cautionary note echoing the fears of many Japanese.

HIRMU NONAKA, Minister for Public Security: (speaking through interpreter) The arrest doesn't mean that we have solved all the problems. There may be sarin or other weapons.

LINDSAY TAYLOR: Scarcely had such words been uttered when the emergency services converged on Tokyo's city hall, where a parcel bomb went off in the office of Tokyo's governor. One of his aides was seriously injured. It's not known if there was any connection with the Asahara arrest, but the recently-elected governor had sworn to crack down on the armed cult if proven responsible for terrorist acts. At a stroke, fear had returned.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE SUBWAY PASSENGER: You know, will it ever stop, this thing that's been happening in the past couple of months with the subway gas bombings, you know, and now this thing and the governor, you know, the Tokyo area gets a package where the bomb exploded, and you know, it's kind of an uneasiness, insecurity feeling, where Japan used to be known as the safest country in the world, and now people are avoiding the subways. And today was actually the first day I even rode the subway in a couple of months.

LINDSAY TAYLOR: Since the subway attack, there have been a number of unsolved incidents. Ten days afterwards, Tokyo's police chief was shot and wounded. On April 19th and 22nd, noxious fumes caused injuries at two sites in Yokohama, Japan's second city. The next day, the head of the Aum cult's intelligence unit was stabbed to death. On May 5th, a cyanide attack at one of Tokyo's main stations was foiled, and only at the weekend an explosion caused damage at Narita International Airport outside Tokyo. It's unclear whether the arrest of the sect's top leaders will curb such attacks or what the effect on the remaining membership will be. So as Japan absorbs the news that the suspected instigator of the gas attacks is in custody, people are wondering whether today marks the end of their fear or just the beginning of another chapter.

MR. MAC NEIL: For more on the Aum Shinri Kyo cult and its impact on life in Japan, we turn to Ko Shioya, a Japanese journalist and North American bureau chief of the Bungei Shunju Publishing Company and Brian Earhart, professor of comparative religion at Western Michigan University. He has studied Japanese new religions for over 30 years. Mr. Shioya, why when so much of the evidence has been leaked by police over the months, did it take so long to arrest Asahara?

KO SHIOYA, Bungei Shunju Magazine: Well, I think basically we have to talk about the differences in the judiciary system between the United States and Japan. Traditionally, Japanese police took a lot more time than American police to eventually indict a person, and in order to initiate a raid, the police must be convinced that they have the case, and this time they took five months to establish the connection, clear cut connection between the cult and the incident.

MR. MAC NEIL: Is part of that connected with the special protection that religious organizations in Japan now enjoy? Tell us about that and the fear of infringing that.

MR. SHIOYA: Well, by the way, this is -- whatever I say is really a reflection on my personal and journalistic views instead of my company's.

MR. MAC NEIL: Right.

MR. SHIOYA: I hope you understand. The kind of freedom that religious organizations enjoy in Japan is a reflection of what Japan once was in terms of a police state and also after the war, there was a lot of freedom and democratic ideas floating in Japan, and the religious organizations were protected a little too much, and the police felt that by, by instigating some kind of a raid, they may have given not only to the Japanese but to the entire world the impression that Japan still is a police state, so it's a very poor reflection, what happened in the past.

MR. MAC NEIL: You mean, so the police were really bending over backwards to be --

MR. SHIOYA: I believe so.

MR. MAC NEIL: -- seen to be observing religious freedom. Professor Earhart, is Aum Shinri Kyo like other new Japanese religions?

BYRON EARHART, Western Michigan University: (Grand Rapids) No, I think it's quite interesting that Aum Shinri Kyo is very different from what we see in most of the new religions. As you mentioned, I've studied these new religions for 30 years. I have visited dozens of headquarters and have never seen any advocacy of violent overthrow of the government or stockpiling of weapons, this kind of violence. That's why it does really surprise all of us that there would be this kind of violence coming from a religious quarter.

MR. MAC NEIL: Describe -- what do you know about Aum and the way, and the way it behaves and treated its followers and what its purposes seem to be.

PROF. EARHART: I think all of us are learning at the moment more and more about Aum Shinri Kyo. What we've read about it, it is a mix of Hinduism and Buddhism. They worship Siva. They have ascetic practices. Some of this is fairly common with many religious groups in Japan. But, of course, along with that, you have a very strong loyalty to the leader, and this, again, is found in a number of religious groups. Of course, it has been criticized for asking the members to turn over all of their financial resources to the group. This has sometimes been the criticism of some religious groups for asking for heavy financial donations, but of course, we find that in religions in other parts of the world, including our own country.

MR. MAC NEIL: Asahara claimed to have been to the future and talked to people involved in a war, an Armageddon-like war, in 1997. Discuss that kind of vision and what it suggests to you about the kind of cult this was.

PROF. EARHART: Well, it's difficult to generalize on all of the new religious movements, but most of these new religions have started with some kind of vision, some kind of revelation. What is remarkable about Mr. Asahara's vision is that it does include an end of the world, and this is rather rare.

MR. MAC NEIL: But his people would survive this, apparently, is what he was saying.

PROF. EARHART: I was reading one of the Japanese publications, a reference work, and the rationale is that evil in the world is increasing, by 1997 -- there are several different dates here -- but by 1997, the evil would have accumulated enough that the world would end, however, if his followers practice asceticism and meditation, they could increase the good in the world virtue, and they could perhaps overcome this catastrophe. What is unexpected in all of this is that it appears the group has wanted to help the end of the world come about.

MR. MAC NEIL: Mr. Shioya, so many of the -- Mr. Asahara's key followers were very well educated young people who could have had, and some of them did have very, very good jobs in, in engineering, in science, and so on. Why would they be drawn to him, when the life he offered was one of such privation and so bleak?

MR. SHIOYA: I think the incident reflects the fundamental weakness of Japanese society today. I think it is a reflection of the lack of a sense of mission in Japan today. Young people are always driven by a sense of mission, but society in general has become so complacent and is incapable of producing leaders who invigorate young people towards a mission. Now Japan is, in my opinion, like a big tanker full of goodies adrift in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Now these young people also -- these young people, bright as they are, because the Japanese education system doesn't produce children with the ability to think critically because everything's taught by rote, by memory, and so I think the end product of a Japanese "fine," Japanese education system -- pardon me for saying this -- the Japanese people listening to it won't like it -- but is a bunch of bright young kids incapable of making decisions. And when they are longing for some kind of sense of mission and the one -- there's a cult saying here's what you can do that you can't do elsewhere, I think there's a tendency of all these people, young people, many of these young people, wanting to join the cult, and all of a sudden within the cult he's given a mission. For instance, the average age of the believers is 27. And these young people, driven by a new desire to do something for the cult leader, it's individual worship as well. And so I think the stage is set.

MR. MAC NEIL: Prof. Earhart, do you agree with that? How do you explain why such promising young people would be, would be attracted to a leader like this?

PROF. EARHART: I think it's interesting to separate several kinds of new religions. I prefer to use that term, rather than cult, and in the past, new religions have attracted people across wide age ranges. But in the past 20 years or so, what some people are calling the new new religions, a number of them like Aum Shinri Kyo have had rather radical messages of mysticism, of miracles, of answers to prayers, and I think what Mr. Shioya has said is true. There are many lonely people not only in Japan, kind of mixed up, not knowing where to go, and as he's put it, maybe more forcefully than I would, a number of young people are looking for answers, they're looking for leaders, they're looking for authority, and not only in Japan, but especially in these groups, this can turn into a kind of ultimate commitment, a kind of radical commitment, and then all questions are called off. However, this is not the case with all such movements.

MR. MAC NEIL: Right. I saw, Mr. Shioya, the London Financial Times had a story that suggests that many of these privileged young people were what they called children of the bubble, the boom era of the 80's, who now feel deprived and anxious and insecure. Does that ring true to you?

MR. SHIOYA: Well, I think, yes, to a large extent that that would be so, because during the past 50 years after the war, Japan started on the road to economic rehabilitation. Everybody worked hard, perhaps too hard, and for Japanese fathers to be home was a rare occasion. Every father worked like, like, you know, very hard. As a result, I think there's a void in the family in which theoretically and traditionally discipline was to be taught, the way of life was taught, how to have a compassion for others, all these things were missing. These are the qualities that pre-war Japanese enjoyed.

MR. MAC NEIL: Is it rare, Professor Earhart, for young people who, who are attracted to a new religion like this to accept the privations that were required? I mean, apparently, they found many people seriously undernourished. They found people locked in coffin-like boxes and in other forms of physical and mental deprivation. Is it common for people to be willing to subject themselves to that sort of treatment?

PROF. EARHART: Once people have become committed to a religious answer, then they will do almost anything. However, I would temper that statement with a note of caution. In Japan, most religious groups include some form of asceticism, some kind of denial of self. And if I might comment further on what Mr. Shioya said, this is not very nice language, but Japanese, themselves, joke about being economic animals, i.e., they go to school, they go to cram schools after school, family life may not always be very nice, and they go to work, they work very long hours, and I think many young people are questioning, bright people especially, what does it mean to be more than an economic animal? It means to find some kind of religious answer. If privation is included in this, it's not so surprising. In fact, the area around Mount Fuji, where this headquarters is found, is also the site of many training camps for young executives. And part of that training is rigorous asceticism, to deny the self. So this is a part of the Japanese culture. It's ingrained, so what Aum Shinri Kyo has done is simply taken this to certainly an extreme, but the asceticism is in there, the spiritual training is a part of many executive training in many corporations.

MR. MAC NEIL: Mr. Shioya, what will happen to the cult, itself, now?

MR. SHIOYA: I think it will be disbanded altogether, because of - - judging from the statements reported back to New York from Tokyo in Japanese newspapers.

MR. MAC NEIL: But the government will just say you're not, you don't qualify as a legitimate religion anymore, or --

MR. SHIOYA: Exactly, as a legitimate religious body which gets tax exemption. They will probably exist as a religious group, but they will not be given any protection per se.

MR. MAC NEIL: Do you feel comfortable, Prof. Earhart, predicting in any way what the other followers, the ones who have not been arrested -- there are supposed to be about 10,000, I think, in Japan -- would -- what their reaction would be to this turn of affairs?

PROF. EARHART: In the history of these new religious groups, actually around the world, there are two very different reactions. One I think the Japanese government has feared and that is that persecution leads to an even heightened commitment. The other is disillusion, so we could have either one of these possibilities. And what some people have been saying is that the sarin gas attack may have been fomented by just one particular elite group within this new religion. If that is the case, there could easily be a splinter group come forward at any time, and I don't think we should discount that.

MR. MAC NEIL: Okay. Well, Prof. Earhart and Mr. Shioya, thank you.

MR. SHIOYA: Thank you very much. FOCUS - DEVIL'S SLIDE

MR. LEHRER: Finally tonight, a struggle to repair a highway. It's a portion of Northern California's Pacific Coast Highway that collapsed during last winter's pounding rainstorms. The break has ignited a simmering feud between motorists and environmentalists. Spencer Michels reports.

SPENCER MICHELS: The spot is called Devil's Slide, and last January, in the midst of a storm, a large chunk of it slid down the mountainside 125 feet into the Pacific Ocean. The two-lane road, Highway One, was bisected. It runs south of San Francisco, connecting several coastal communities with the city. Residents are as divided as the broken road over what to do. Traffic won't be able to use the road until at least mid summer.

JOAH VAN VELSOR, Engineering Geologist: It probably wasn't the world's greatest place to build a highway.

MR. MICHELS: John Van Velsor has worked as an engineering geologist for California's Department of Transportation, known as Caltrans, for more than a decade. Devil's Slide, which has collapsed before, has taken much of her time.

JOAN VAN VELSOR: There is no way we can prevent a similar occurrence next year if the rainfall and slide conditions are ripe. What we're working on is designing a temporary repair that will prevent catastrophic failure. It's going to be a bandaid fix. Eventually, the ocean is going to take this road away.

MR. MICHELS: That's bad news for the 20,000 residents who live south of the slide near the town of Half Moon Bay. To go north, they must first detour south over crowded highways not designed for commute traffic. Pat Kalteis is a waitress at Nick's Restaurant in Pacifica, which used to be five miles from her home.

PAT KALTEIS, Coastal Resident: My commute is terrible. It used to take me eight to ten minutes to come here, and now it's like the very best time forty-five minutes, and then at nighttime it's taking me three hours to get home.

MR. MICHELS: Business along the coast has suffered since the customers can't get there, but it's the commute that makes Kalteis angry.

PAT KALTEIS: Very. Enough to sell my house, quit my job, and just leave. You know, I'm that angry.

MR. MICHELS: She's angry at Caltrans, which keeps measuring the slide, waiting for the hillside to dry out and stop shifting before starting repairs. And she's furious at environmentalists for holding up the project. Fixing this road would seem to be essentially an engineering problem, albeit a difficult one. But it has become far more than that. It has become a major environmental battle. Environmentalists and developers have fought for decades over California's spectacular coast line. And the environmentalists have often won, especially in Northern California, strict controls have been imposed on growth.

SPOKESMAN: And Sierra Club is strong for the coast. We're solid for the coast.

MR. MICHELS: Ollie Mayer and her husband live a few miles inland from the coast. She heads the Sierra Club's Devil's Slide task force. One of the few women mechanical engineers in the 1940's and 50's, she's fought for three decades against new development along the Pacific.

OLLIE MAYER, Sierra Club: It is a spectacular, remarkable area, with the mountains coming right down to the sea. This coast doesn't just belong to the people who live there. It doesn't belong just to the county. It belongs to the whole country. And we are determined that it not be turned -- it not be commercialized as the coast has in Los Angeles.

SPOKESMAN: So going back to this map --

MR. MICHELS: What Mayer and her allies fear is a Caltrans plan developed 10 years ago to build a new road four and a half miles long, bypassing the slide. The $70 million bypass would run inland over the mountains and through an undeveloped state park. Environmentalists produced this computer image to show how the road will look when completed.

OLLIE MAYER: You'll destroy all the flowers up there, and then the park will be finished, destroyed.

MR. MICHELS: Fearing that easier access via the bypass would spur development, the Sierra Club filed a federal lawsuit against Caltrans to block it. The suit has prevented any construction for a decade. Pat Kalteis, who loves the coast for the same reasons Ollie Mayer does, now says the Sierra Club has gone too far.

PAT KALTEIS: They stand for good things, and they get extreme. They're extremists. They're doing more harm than they're doing good, I think.

MR. MICHELS: Caltrans officials agree. They say Sierra Club fears that the road will become a superhighway are unfounded. Rather, they've designed a simple, three-lane road to run over the mountain. Spokesman Greg Bayrol.

GREG BAYROL, Caltrans Spokesman: We're not making it any wider than the safety requirements, you know, dictate.

MR. MICHELS: People that don't like it, of course, say it'll go through a park and it'll louse up the environment.

GREG BAYROL: Well, I think that's true. It will, and that's -- that's unfortunate, in that we have a limited number of choices and none of them are very good, but the least damaging is a bypass, and we planned it with the park.

MR. MICHELS: Environmentalists say the bypass is the most damaging option. Chuck Kozak, a computer programmer who commutes to San Francisco, often hikes through the park.

CHUCK KOZAK, Environmental Activist: Putting a road right through the middle of it is really going to, you know, have a severe effect, you know, on the plant and animal community that's here.

MR. MICHELS: Highway noise, he predicts, will ruin the tranquility of the park and nearby towns.

CHUCK KOZAK: You know, you can imagine what it would be like having, you know, semi-trucks pulling a grade right here.

MR. MICHELS: Faced with the need to do something about the traffic, the Sierra Club has now endorsed a plan for a tunnel through the mountain. Citing studies by civil engineers, the environmentalists say a tunnel could be less than a mile long and probably cost less than the bypass.

OLLIE MAYER: It has no environmental impacts, to speak of, that are serious. It's safer; it's cheaper; and it can be built more quickly.

MR. MICHELS: The Sierra Club says the federal highway funds already allocated for the bypass could be transferred to a tunnel project. Caltrans officials disagree.

GREG BAYROL: If we were to stop this project, stop a bypass, and start all over again and start looking at a tunnel, the federal government provides no money, and that means this project would have to get in line with everything else, and we don't have the money to do the projects we've got on line.

MR. MICHELS: At a crowded open meeting on the tunnel idea, county supervisors heard how desperate some coastside residents are to build a new road now.

BILL GILLESPIE, Restaurant Owner: I'm also a longtime environmentalist, a longtime member of the Sierra Club, and I am at odds with the Sierra Club on the question of the bypass. We are dying on the vine down there, folks. The only thing that bothers me is that I have this recurring nightmare that 10 years from now I'm going to be back here in front of you again.

MR. MICHELS: The supervisors seemed to fear that as well. They voted against asking Caltrans to consider the tunnel. The agency has been unwilling to do that without a formal request. The board president and former state assemblyman, Ted Lempert, suspects Caltrans is inflexible because that's the way bureaucracies operate. Meanwhile, he has been pushing for a meeting between the Sierra Club and a reluctant Caltrans.

TED LEMPERT, Supervisor, San Mateo Co.: They want to make sure that they get their highway through and don't really seem to be interested in discussing any alternative. They are furious at the - - at Sierra Club and environmentalists for stopping their project in court, and they're determined to win.

MR. MICHELS: But these days, with traffic slowed and coastal business suffering, Caltrans has plenty of supporters among frustrated residents and the Sierra Club has plenty of detractors.

JAY COMBS, Committee for the Bypass: I would like for Ollie Mayer to stand up and just say -- apologize to the coast for the -- the agony, the grief, the loss of jobs that she has caused by this lawsuit.

MR. MICHELS: Jay Combs and Michael Martin, both real estate agents, live in a coastside golf course community. They are working for construction of the bypass.

JAY COMBS: I blame the zealous environmentalists who have blocked the building of the bypass. I think they've abused the legal system in holding up this thing.

MICHAEL MARTIN, Coastal Realtor: The sales are down a little bit. People don't want to pay as much money for an area that they perceived to be plagued by transportation problems.

JAY COMBS: Devil's Slide has acted as the Sierra Club's allies in keeping the coast from being accessible to the people that live over here, and we feel that this outside interest has just imposed themselves on us and it has overregulated us, and we need to get a little freedom.

MR. MICHELS: Combs is threatening to file a counter suit against the Sierra Club. For her part, an unrepentant Ollie Mayer sees the battle for the California coast as part of a national struggle.

OLLIE MAYER: Well, the people in Washington today are head strong and they're all set to, to get rid of all the wonderful environmental regulations that have been established over the last few years, and they want to get rid of them, throw them all out. I think they're going to find out that the American people don't like this very much.

MR. MICHELS: County Supervisor Lempert also reasons that antagonism against environmentalists is directly related to the national political mood.

TED LEMPERT: People are hearing, hearing environmental groups being attacked around the country as being, you know, bad for business or the, or the -- one of the reasons that the economy is not doing as well and environmentalism has gone too far. Then when you have stuck in their cars with incredibly long commutes, feel that they're trapped in their coastside, and they're hearing that it's because these environmental groups have kept this thing in courts for years and years, they obviously become a natural target and it sort of feeds into what they're hearing throughout the country.

SPOKESMAN: No one's come to these meetings and ever explained, you know, why it has to be so long.

MR. MICHELS: Environmentalists have not been intimidated. They continue to attend Caltrans hearings in force, like this one on mitigating highway noise, to fight against what they consider an intrusive road.

DR. GRANT WEISS, Coastal Resident: I hike and bike with my dog on McNee State Ranch almost every day. The peace and quiet, after a long shift in the emergency room, is an important part of my lifestyle. All the noise berms in the world won't mitigate my loss of access, views, and peace and quiet.

CHUCK KOZAK: There's a need for a true noise mitigation design, and the only plan that will truly mitigate the noise from the bypass would be not to build it. Thank you. (applause)

MR. MICHELS: The other side is not intimidated either.

LOUIS BERTOLUCCI, Coastal Resident: As a longtime resident here of 70 years, we need a highway, we need it now, so build it.

MR. MICHELS: The State Department of Transportation would like to do just that, but they're up against more than just the forces of nature. RECAP

MR. MAC NEIL: Again, the major stories of this Tuesday, the Clinton administration targeted 13 Japanese luxury cars for punitive tariffs. U.S. Trade Rep. Mickey Kantor said the move was necessary to open Japan's automobile market, and this evening, the House passed legislation which eases water pollution regulations and protection for the nation's wetlands. The Senate has yet to act on the measure. Good night, Jim.

MR. LEHRER: Good night, Robin. We'll see you tomorrow night with a Newsmaker interview with Attorney General Janet Reno. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.