The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. LEHRER: Good evening. The crisis in the Middle East took another serious turn as Iraq's Saddam Hussein called for an Arab Holy War against the U.S. and other Western forces and for the overthrow of the Saudi government. At the Arab summit in Cairo, 12 Arab nations agreed to form a military force to protect Saudi Arabia from Iraq. We'll have the details in our News Summary in a moment. Charlayne Hunter-Gault is in New York tonight. Charlayne.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: The conflict in the Middle East continues as our major story. We'll take up Saddam Hussein's tough new call for an Arab Holy War [FOCUS - HOLY WAR] against the United States and Saudi Arabia with four Arab-Americans. Then we'll look at how this latest twist affects the deepening crisis [FOCUS - SERIOUS THREAT?] in the region. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: Saddam Hussein today sounded the call for a Holy War. The targets would be U.S. forces in Saudi Arabia, as well as the Saudi government, itself. His threats were made in a statement read by a government spokesman on Iraqi television.

GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN: [Speaking through Interpreter] Fellow Arabs and Moslems, all believers in God, wherever you are, this is your day to rise up to protect Mecca, which is imprisoned by Americans and Zionists. This is your day to stand up and protect the prophet, Mohammed, who carried the honorable and holy message in our Holy Land so that his message will stay holy and protected. Fight off corruption, fight against darkness, rebel against any person who accepts the situation where Arab women become disrespectable, rebel against anyone who is an agent to the foreigners. Tell all conspirators that they have no more place on Arab land, they have desecrated Arab honor, earned Arab land under the feet of invaders who do not want the interest of Iraqis or Arabs. Rise up so that the voice of right in the Arab nation will rise up, especially after all efforts to put your voice down through rebelling against all efforts to stop you, against all efforts to humiliate Mecca. Our brethren in Egypt, the grandchildren of believers, the sons of the revolution of 1919, the revolution of 1923, the sons of the revolution of Saad Saglo, the sons of Gamul Abul Nasar, this is your day, this is your role. You should stop the foreign fleets from passing through Suez Canal so that your skies and waters will not be desecrated. Egyptians stop their passage and put your efforts with the efforts of believers in the Gulf and in Iraq, we call you for a Holy War. Do not hesitate to do so. You should stand up against foreign troops. You will thus achieve victory and right and God's acceptance of you. You will become leaders, honorable leaders of this nation. We will be victorious by the help of God. The invaders will be defeated and we'll be dishonored. A new sun will rise over the Arab and Moslem world. God will be very satisfied with such a faith. Iraqi troops will continue their fight, no matter how denials are presented on any part. We have seen that all conspiracies and schemes with foreigners have failed so that their interests come foremost. Small oil states were thus installed, states which were very detached from their people, and the new wealth, oil wealth, which was given to a minority, started to be used for the interest of the foreigners and the new leaders. Iraq is an Arab country. It is a torchlight against darkness. Now that all disbelievers stand in one line, all believers should stand with Iraq in one line, a line which is wanted and wished by God. They should stand against disbelieversin Saudi Arabia and with Saddam Hussein. God will be victorious. The enemies, the evil enemies, will be defeated no matter how mighty they are, no matter how sly conspirators are, no matter how powerful the Kuwaiti conspirators all. For all these reasons and under these circumstances, American troops coming into the region will vanish.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Hussein's call to arms came as representatives of 20 Arab nations were meeting in Cairo, Egypt. The emergency Arab summit was organized by Egyptian Pres. Mubarak to find a peaceful resolution of the crisis. Alex Thompson of Independent Television News reports from Cairo.

MR. THOMPSON: Arab leaders arriving at the summit symbolized the shifting relationship the whole area has with the rest of the world. Col. Gadhafi until recently America's Public Enemy No. 1 now eclipsed by Pres. Saddam Hussein. The Iraqis refused to recognize the Emir of Kuwait who subsequently walked out of negotiations. Iraq's tactics here are to play long and hard on Arabian dislike of America and the West as their forces mass in the Gulf.

TARIQ AZIZ, Iraqi Foreign Minister: The first step for this summit to take in order to save the credibility of the Arab solution if there is a serious and sincere discussion for an Arab solution, is a call for the immediate withdrawal of American forces from the region, so that the Arabs would be in a free situation to discuss their own problem.

MR. THOMPSON: But the host, Egypt's Pres. Mubarak, says only complete Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait will put right the damage.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: This evening, 12 of the 20 nations at the summit agreed to send a Pan Arab force to Saudi Arabia to protect it from Iraq. The ministers also agreed to impose economic sanctions against Iraq. The countries that adopted today's resolutions include Egypt and Syria, which have the largest armies in the Middle East after Iraq.

MR. LEHRER: Pres. Bush today officially notified Congress of the deployment of the U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia. He did so under the terms of the War Powers Act. In a letter to Congress, he said he did not think involvement in hostilities was imminent, but he said, "Our armed forces will remain in Saudi Arabia so long as their presence is required." The Associated Press quoted Pentagon sources, saying the deployment could reach 250,000 U.S. troops and support personnel. The State Department also issued a warning of possible terrorist against U.S. diplomatic posts. Embassies have been advised to take security precautions.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Sec. of State Baker today appealed to America's NATO allies for a stronger response to Iraq's aggression. He told NATO ministers in Belgium that Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was the first crisis of the post cold war era, and said the U.S. will do whatever is necessary to cripple Saddam Hussein's economy. NATO ministers later endorsed the U.S. military action in the area but ruled out the use of a collective NATO force. This afternoon, Australia and Canada said they would be sending a total of six ships to help patrol the Persian Gulf and West Germany said it ordered warships to the Mediterranean to replace American ships that have left for the area in the Gulf.

MR. LEHRER: Late this afternoon, Pres. Bush commented on Saddam Hussein's statement and other developments in the crisis. He spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to his home in Kennebunkport, Maine. He was asked for his reaction to the Iraqi leader's call for a Holy war.

PRES. BUSH: I don't expect it. He is so isolated in the world, so much backed into a corner by world opinion, which is almost a hundred percent against him that he has to find some mechanism to try to rally support, and it won't work, and his problem is in the Arab world and Muslim world as well as it is in the rest of the world, so it's a rather frantic ploy to try to gather some support, but it's going to be ineffective. It will not work.

PORTER: Mr. President -- [drowned out by airplane noise]

ES. BUSH: Haven't got any reports from the Arab summit one way or another.

PORTER: What about American troops, already in Saudi Arabia, should be able to withstand any assault, basically do you thinkn troops would be able to win?

PRES. BUSH: Would be able to withstand an assault on Saudi Arabia. Listen, I'd love to see the economic sanctions be so successful that the forces could be withdrawn, and I think they will be successful. My problem is I just can't estimate the time right now how long it will take, but there will be substantial force. There will be enough force that Americans are protected from unwarranted attack. There have been very disturbing reports of violence against citizens of several countries, and there was a report of a British airline stewardess having been violated and humiliated by Iraq soldiers. There are scattered reports, but I will say that it's not just against Americans, but I think all countries are concerned about the safety of their citizens. And part of any planning has to be about how to protect citizens. And we all know the difficulties of that. If somebody does violence, it's already taken place as a matter of fact, so it worries me, because I do view it as a prime responsibility, but I would say, you know, I'm not going to go beyond that and I'm not going to invite further harassment by elevating the value of any citizen. We're not helpless, no, but we've seen the hostage situation, but I don't think this is one. It's very difficult.

REPORTER: [drowned out by airplane noise] -- call for Jihad - - is this just rhetoric?

PRES. BUSH: Yeah, rhetorical, because he's backed into a corner. He's been isolated by the rest of the world. Nobody supports him. And so he's trying to rally Arab support generally. The problem he's got is that most of the Arab countries violently disapprove of what he's done, but he doesn't have many options, so he's resorted to radical rhetoric trying to mobilize opinion. But his problem is everybody sees through this. Everybody around the world will see through this rhetoric.

REPORTER: [drowned out by airplane noise] -- Today in Cairo - -

PRES. BUSH: I think it's going well and my talks with Arab leaders have been very supportive, but there is the right thing if you have an Arab meeting of this kind. I salute Pres. Mubarak for having stayed with the idea. The more such meetings the better. Maybe, just maybe, I'm not too optimistic, somebody can talk some sense into this man who has been thoroughly censured by the rest of the world.

REPORTER: You say Saddam Hussein is using rhetoric, but is there danger that that kind of rhetoric is likely to inflame the Saudi rank and file?

PRES. BUSH: No, no. I think it's so extreme that people who are Saudi Arabians, loyal to the king, they're not going to rise up when a radical tries to mobilize support, but he has none. People see this so clearly that I wouldn't worry about that.

REPORTER: What about Americans outside of Iraq and Kuwait?

PRES. BUSH: Well, you always worry about that. As you know, I've worried about that long before this incident and indeed, Americans are still being held against their will, probably in Lebanon, and this will continue to concern me wherever they are, whether it's in the Middle East or elsewhere, so I do worry about extremists taking extreme action. [Reporter Drowned Out Totally by Airplane Noise] There is no specific reason in this case and no intelligence that has me alarmed, but I continue to worry about it and we will take the proper warning procedures in our various embassies, but all you can do is make clear to people that there are these dangers. The best assessment is that I'm very encouraged by the worldwide support over sanctions to the United Nations which are very encompassing. And I'm not prepared to use the word blockade, but I am prepared to say that we will do whatever is necessary to see that the exports from Iran revert to entrapment under the U.N. Resolution do not go forward, and that means pipelines and that means seeing that product does not get to market and might attempt to.

REPORTER: If an Iraqi oil ship went out today, a U.S. ship would stop it or some ship would stop it?

PRES. BUSH: I didn't say that.

REPORTER: Let me ask that.

PRES. BUSH: What is your question?

REPORTER: If an Iraqi ship went out today with oil, would a U.S. ship or another ship --

PRES. BUSH: I would advise Iraqi ships not to go out with oil. Let's leave it right there, because there are a lot of things going on right now that I don't feel like commenting on. FOCUS - HOLY WAR

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: We devote the rest of the program to escalating crisis in the Arab World. We start with four Arab perspectives today on the Saddam Hussein speech and the Arab League decision. Mohammed Hakki is a former journalist who was Chairman of the Egyptian State Information service under President Sadat and Mubarak. He is now Washington Bureau Chief for the Kuwait Newspaper Amnubal. Hisham Melhem is a reporter for the Beirut Newspaper and until last week was a corespondent for a Kuwait newspaper. Osama Siblani is the Editor and Publisher of the largest American Arab newspaper in the United States. He joins us from Public Station WTVS in Detroit. Raghida Dergam is a correspondent for the Arab Newspaper Alhayat which is Published in London and starting with you Raghida. Saddam's call today for a Holy War against the United States in Saudi Arabia. Real or rhetoric?

MS. DERGAM: Well this was his agenda. His agenda was to go to the Summit and say that this is an Arab conflict against foreign intervention. So his delegation was in Cairo doing that while he was back home trying to be the Arab populist leader if you will.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: So do you think that it is serious?

MS. DERGAM: I seriously think that he needs it to be because he is now being squeezed. There is an escalation. There is escalation on one hand there is rhetoric on the other and he is trying to play on the populist Arab sentiment. How much it is going to go with him I don't know. If he had a better human rights record I would say that he would have a big following.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Mr. Melhem in Washington, what is your reaction to this call?

MR. MELHEM: I think that his call is a sign of desperation. I think he is realizing he over played his hand. He terribly miscalculated the international reaction and he was surprised by the reaction of the Arab states. I think that he will stand firm. I think he decided not to withdraw from Kuwait. This is his last fight sort of speak. He gambled everything on this one and his future is at stake and I think that we should do everything not to play in his hands. He is boxed in and he is a man who has the will, the ruthlessness and the power to go ahead and achieve what he wants to achieve by any means.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Mr. Hakki what do you think?

MR. HAKKI: I think that he is terribly miscalculating the time. He is cloaking himself with the cloak of Arab nationalism and so on but these are not the 60s and he is definitely not Abdul Nassar. If I may borrow a line from Senator Lloyd Bentsen, I would say Mr. Saddam I have know Abdul Nassar and you are not Nassar. The times have changed and all this talk about American forces makes every Arab heart really torn between what is right and what is wrong and so on. But there is no doubt in my mind that the Arab people realize that the crime that he has committed in Kuwait will not allow anybody to listen to these calls to rise up against your leaders, rise up against your government. I don't think that it will wash.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: But do you think that Saddam is serious?

MR. HAKKI: I think that Saddam is serious and he has put himself in a checkmate position and that is why he will probably try to bring down with him as many as he can.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: What do you think Mr. Siblani in Detroit?

MR. SIBLANI: I think that I must disagree with my colleagues. The other journalists that you have on the show today. I believe that Saddam Hussein is the master of his game, is the master of his world. He has issued this statement today to corner the Arab leaders that are convening in Cairo today. At the same time to put the pressure on the United States because he understands very well the animosity that the Arab masses have against the United States of America due to its foreign policy. I believe that he played it very well. I do not believe that he is cornered. I believe that he has a lot of choices to come and I am sure that he will use them.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: How do you think that he is going to be received in the Arab world. I mean how divided is the Arab world or likely to be in response to this kind of call. Is what we are hearing publicly the same thing that is being said privately?

MR. SIBLANI: The Arab world is not divided as far as the masses are concerned. Now I do not believe that Arabs in general or the Arab masses are in love with Saddam Hussein but I do not think that if they have a choice they will chose the United States over Saddam Hussein at this particular time. Now let's distinguish between the regimes and the Arab masses. Their isn't a single regime in the Arab world that is elected by the will of the people. So there is no reflection of the will of the masses in the Government and this is something that is not disputed. There is a wide huge gap between the Government and the masses.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: I don't know if you heard the exchange in the plane with one of the reporters and President Bush who asked if this call today is likely to inflame the Saudi rank and file. I forgot what he said. I think he said that he did not think so. By what I heard you say the masses, the rank and file be moved to respond to this call?

MR. SIBLANI: I will not exaggerate if I tell you that the Saudi masses are not on complete and good terms with the government. If anybody tells you they are they will not be telling the truth at all. There are problems in Saudi Arabia between the masses and the Government. However how deep it is nobody knows because the press over there is extremely closed and as a matter of fact no one is allowed to go to Saudi Arabia and the Saudi press is treating this problem as every day business as usual.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Let me ask Mr. MelhEm about how this call is likely to be received in the Arab world?

MR. MELHEM: It is true that there are economic discrepancies between the rich and poor Arabs. It is true that one can have a long list of grievances against all Arab regimes. It is true that most of them were not elected freely and in a region that is cursed with a number of autocratic leaders Saddam Hussein stands out as the most truthless of them all. The question is not here. What is the alternative that Saddam Hussein is presenting to the masses. He is playing on genuinely felt grievances concerning the rich and poor Arabs, concerning the resentment that does exist in the rank and file especially among the Palestinians and the Jordanians and others visa vie the region but what are his alternatives. He is using symbols of Arab nationalism, symbols of Islamic solidarity to further his own personal ambitions.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Be that as it may where can this kind of thing take them?

MR. MELHEM: I the Arab world it is very easy to speak in the name of the masses. I don't know what the masses want in every Arab country. There are different issues, regional, local, cultural, you name it. I don't think the Egyptian masses are necessarily supportive of Saddam. In fact they don't like him. They know very well what he did to the Egyptian workers in Iraq. What is the alternative. I mean people look up to a foreign leader or a neighboring leader if he has the promise of freedom. of justice, of economic well being. He does not have these things. This the man who gave us the two biggest blunders in Arab history, the war against Iran. In which he squandered his own resources and he squandered also the Arab resources and now he turned against an Arab country in the name of Arab nationalism. He is dividing the Arabs more than others.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Mr. Hakki?

MR. SIBLANI: I think you are mistaking.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Is this Mr. Siblani?

MR. SIBLANI: Yes. The name of Saddam Hussein has given the Arab world the strongest government in modern history. A government that can challenge Israel and can challenge a super power. I think that the Arab people, the Arab masses are tired of being kicked around.

MR. MELHEM: This is a dangerous Don Quixote don't be fooled by this. He was talking Arab nationalism and he attacks Iran. If you are serious about the Israelis you don't fight 8 years of a savage war against Iran and now you throw verbal attacks on Israelis, you criticize the Americans. You play to the emotional feelings of the Arabs and what do you do next. Your next move is to go against another Arab Country. Now he has just shattered the Arab States system which was already fragile. This is the point.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: We can not solve this one. Let's go to Mr. Hakki and ask him what do you think to the Arab Leagues response to the crisis so far?

MR. HAKKI: The Arab League response is remarkable in the sense that it was called for in 24 hours. We have never called for a meeting before we had this unanimity. Mubarak only yesterday was explaining how in every meeting we used to tear each others clothes and so on. But the fact that they came out with this resolution makes me want to go one step further. What I am saying we should be concerned as Arabs for the Arab nation. There is no nation in history that gets two chances in life and the Arabs were beginning to have a chance. Another chance. And as the winds of change in the whole world we should have tended to these problems and working with the American Administration very hard so that they can at least stand up to the Israelis and tell them no more greater Israel dreams. Let's solve this problem once and for all.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: President Mubarak has been warning that time was running out for the Arab world to react. Do you think that they reacted soon enough and strong enough Raghida Dergam?

MS. DERGAM: I don't think that the reaction of the Arab League and Arab Summit is that promising u in my opinion. I worry about acute polarization as a result. I don't see is as a conflict resolution result.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: How would you get acuter polarization from that. I mean that Egypt and Syria which have the largest armies after Iraq agreed to send troops. They have all agreed to work on the border?

MS. DERGAM: Two things the dissenters who are they. The Palestinians are dissenters. Not only the issue of the Arab, Israeli conflict and secondly this Arab force is going to be playing a complimentary role to the American forces. Then again this issue of the masses will come in a different light.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: In other words you think that if a Pan Arab force goes into Saudi Arabia it has to replace the American forces there.

MS. DERGAM: I don't know how they decided it would be. I think that it is a force that is coming as a buffer. It seems to me that it is going to be a complimentary force of the American forces.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: And you think that won't work?

MS. DERGAM: What I am saying it is going to instigate resentment. There is this historic traditional negative feelings toward the West, toward foreign intervention. You also have the lack of a single issue. The Arab world is not a single issue constituency. It always thinks of conspiracy, it always thinks of all kinds of elements that play and they don't think this a matter of a country invading another country and the consequences of that. There is a action and reaction and the chain is very explosive.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Mr. Siblani what do you think of the Arabs Leagues response and how do you think that Saddam Hussein is going to respond. I mean he chose not to even go there?

MR. SIBLANI: I don't recall ever that the Arab League has been effective in these crisis especially in this magnitude. The Arab League has been divided even on the Iran, Iraq War. So I don't see how it is going to be effective or effect the situation. However I would like to say something which has not been said in the media. I do consider that the United States as a party who is escalating the tension in the region. I don't know whether it has been done on purpose or unintentional. Today while the Arab Leaders are meeting Cairo the Administration leaked to the media the three prolonged objectives of the U.S. military troops in Saudi Arabia. One is to protect Saudi oil fields. Second is to protect the Government of Saudi Arabia and get the Iraqi out of Kuwait. And third this is new it came out today. Their intention is to topple the Saddam regime from Iraq. Now this is something that is not good, not a good intention to release. The Arabs are meeting to resolve the conflict. I don't think that diplomacy has been given a chance. I don't think the Arabs are moving or Arab leaders are free to move on this issue without any outside pressure.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Let me get Mr. Melhem's response to that and also what do you think of Saddam's tactics at the meeting today and whether or not they are going to be effective with the actions that they have taken.

MR. MELHEM: For a long time Saddam intimidating not only his own population but practically all of his Arab neighbors and I think that he willcontinue on that. As I said he boxed himself in and over played his hand as usual. This time it may be fatal.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: What about the point that Mr. Siblani made?

MR. MELHEM: I would agree that the Americans appeared to eager to go back to Saudi Arabia and I think all along they wanted to have a military presence on the Arabian Peninsula. This is not a good development in my opinion. I think that Saddam was not going to invade Saudi Arabia. I mean he is not a mad man. He is a very calculating shrewd all be it ruthless man but he is not crazy. When he is usually confronted with tremendous power he usually backs down and we know of a couple of examples where he did in 1975 and others.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Well do you think the Pan Arab force that is being organized should replace the U.S. forces in the area?

MR. MELHEM: I would hope so but let's make one thing clear. I don't think the Arabs are going to massing their troops in Saudi Arabia are going to take on Saddam Hussein militarily. This would be a great risk for any Arab Leader. It is not acceptable in the Arab world. It is not acceptable for Arab Armies to mass against each other and I also think it will be seen for the Egyptians to be seen as canon fodder in this whole thing especially if they are coordinating closely with the Americans. There are risks involved there. The point is how to dislodge Saddam Hussein from Kuwait without confronting militarily on Kuwaiti soil. Now that there is more of less an Arab consensus in boycotting Saddam Hussein and condemning his occupation of Kuwait. Maybe and this is a slim chance with the international outcry may be the Iraqi population, may be the dissidents in Iraq, may be some dissidents in the Army will wake up and see that we can not face the whole world alone. The reason Saddam did not lose his war against Iran is because the Arab World and in fact the international community was siding with him against Iran. The reason Iran lost the war was because Iran appeared to be fighting the whole world. That is what Saddam is doing now.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Mr. Hakki, Ms. Dergam. Mr. Siblani, Mr. Melhem thank you very much. Jim.

MR. LEHRER: Now five additional perspectives on where the overall situation stands now. Richard Murphy was Asst. Sec. of State for near Eastern affairs in the Reagan administration. He joins us from public television station WGBH in Boston. Yitzhak Rabin is a former prime minister and defense minister of Israel. He's with us from public station WGBY, Springfield, Massachusetts. Fouad Ajami is director of Middle East studies at the Johns-Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. He's written extensively about Middle East politics. Graham Fuller is the former vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA. He is now a senior political scientist at the Rand Corporation. He joins us from public station KCET-Los Angeles, and with us here again in Washington tonight, Bruce Van Voorst, senior national security affairs correspondent for Time and the magazine's former Middle East bureau chief. Mr. Murphy, first to you. Pres. Bush, and we just heard the discussion among the Arab folks, Pres. Bush said today that Hussein's call were words of a cornered man with no support and there was really nothing to worry about. What do you think about that, Mr. Murphy?

RICHARD MURPHY, Former State Department Official: I'm still worried, because I think that this man while cornered still does have some options and some fairly nasty options. It just depends how he intends to play his cards. Does he accept today that he miscalculated? Does he accept today that he has to change course? That is not yet clear and I think there are risks for us and for those with whom we're working.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Rabin, your analysis, sir, of the risk.

YITZHAK RABIN, Former Prime Minister, Israel: Well, I believe that Iraq today is under pressure by the international community, mainly by the United States, is isolated in the Arab world, but the key is what the United States will do, to what extent the United States will succeed, on the one hand, to accumulate enough forces in Saudi Arabia to deter Saddam Hussein from continuation of his aggression, of his military activities against other Arab countries or the U.S. forces, and to what extent the embargo, the blockade will create in one month, or two months enough pressures on the Iraqi people that there will be elements that will realize that Saddam Hussein led them to the end of their aspirations that go up as their success against Iran, and the second point of course, let's not forget, it looks now to everybody that conflicts, differences, among the Arab countries are not always related to the Israeli conflict. There is enough animosity, a contradiction of interest among the Arab countries that they can lead to the crisis that we face today.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Ajami, your analysis of the risk and how we should read what Saddam Hussein did and said today.

FOUAD AJAMI, Middle East Analyst: Saddam's game is very clear. Saddam has thrown down a gauntlet to the other Arab regimes. What he's really saying now is that, you know, folks, the matter of Kuwait is done and over with. He found the maps and the text of the Ottoman Empire. He makes the argument that Kuwait is already part of Iraq, the branch has returned to the mother nation. It's a very transparent game. He's established a status quo. He's established a new order of things. And what he's done, he's taken over Kuwait. The Americans came in and I think the word deterrence is right. We established a trip wire for Saddam in Saudi Arabia, and so I think we have a status quo. We are dug in. Saddam stays in Kuwait. No one really talks about Kuwait anymore. I mean, it's almost like a fait du complis. This is a challenge to the rest of the world and then the Americans came in and they are in Saudi Arabia, and Saddam's charged now, in effect, he now has the mantel of Islam, of Arab nationalism against Yankee imperialism. I mean, it's a good day's work if you can get away with it.

MR. LEHRER: Is he going to get away with it?

MR. AJAMI: You see, I think in a way if we now take a look at an audit of where we stand, that's all we know. I mean, no one really has a script. Where do we stand today? Saddam wanted Kuwait all along. I mean, it's a big heist if you can get away with the wealth of Kuwait, so he has dared the rest of the world to challenge his occupation of Kuwait. For now, the matter of Kuwait will stand aside. We then, everyone understood that the matter of Saudi Arabia was a completely different matter. I think in my opinion he never really intended to go to Saudi Arabia. The Americans rushed him to the beach. I think it was the right decision under the circumstance, but there are all sorts of questions which we will ask later about the American presence. Is it politically exposed? Can we get the Arabs, if you will, to reflect, to use that metaphor, to reflect some of the American presence in Saudi Arabia? Can we get them to take the heat off the Americans so we don't have just the House of Saud with the Americans facing Saddamas the new champion of Arab nationalism and the new champion of the oppressed.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Fuller, do you believe that Saddam Hussein never intended to go into Saudi Arabia?

GRAHAM FULLER, Middle East Analyst: I think it would be a very major mistake to assume what Saddam might or might not do. There was very good reason to think that he might not go into Kuwait at one point. Saddam had actually accomplished, I would argue, 3/4 of his agenda by intimidating the legitimate rulers of Kuwait and in forcing them to fulfill most of his goals, so when he then proceeded to invade Kuwait on top of it, I think it suggests that the agenda that he is fulfilling is a great deal more ambitious than we might have been led to think. Saddam I think has clearly overreached himself in this calculation, but the great problem is I don't see this man as a man who backs away. He does not issue idle threats. He speaks the language of force. I think he is not a politician in any sense. I think he basically misreads politics, which is disturbing, because all the messages that he should be reading now, the political messages, indeed, the military messages, suggest that he better back away very soon. And that's not the direction in which he's moving.

MR. LEHRER: Bruce, how does the administration read the message from Saddam Hussein today?

BRUCE VAN VOORST, Time Magazine: Well, the administration reads it just as the President explained it this afternoon, i.e., this is the last desperate act of frustration on the part of a cornered man, an appeal on a religious basis from a man who by the way who is a Baptist and has a Christian foreign minister, but aside from that, whose credentials for challenging the Saudi dominance of Mecca and the Holy Places is questionable. On the one hand, they can make that claim that this is just a frustrated appeal for Jihad. I think it's also true though to say that the President under estimated on the airplane in his reply that question about the dangers inherent in the speech by Saddam Hussein. He is an unpredictable man, he is not the kind of man that will back down, and this appeal has some attraction throughout the Islamic world. As we saw today, there were riots in various cities and demonstrations. And the important thing is to keep in mind that there are complex politics of the Arab world to which he can appeal. He's not going to be another Nasser, but he does have some claim to have awakened Arab nationalism, and that's an appeal that he has. But the administration was only taken back by this for a few hours today, because this was a bad news/good news day. The bad news was the speech perhaps, but the good news was of course the report from Cairo that came in several hours later from the Arab League meeting. This was really a God send for the President both on military terms and in economic terms. This Arab League action, as we've heard described tonight, is not going to push Saddam Hussein and the Iraqis out of Kuwait, but it does a number of things. First of all, it gives the President and the United States an incredible backing that they didn't have before. This, if it ever was, is not Mr. Bush's war and it's not an American war. We're going to have Arabs involved in that. And secondly, when the economic squeeze comes, it will be very advantageous to have some of these countries in the region who will support us and help to prevent circumvention. So on balance, it's a big day for the administration.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Murphy, you've dealt with most of the Arab leaders who were at that summit today. What is your analysis of how important that was, and what do you think of the spin that Bruce just put on it?

MR. MURPHY: I agree with Bruce. It was excellent news today that our troops, the Saudi troops, will be joined by Arab units. I was apprehensive, I'll be frank, before the summit got underway that they might not reach this point, that they might say, well, eventually, we will provide an Arab League force to replace the Iraqi troops in Kuwait, and that would have pushed their action way down the road, for some indeterminant period down the road. I think the second thing Bruce has put his finger on, and interestingly, our four correspondents did not make a point of this, is that this speech today in Baghdad could have been given over Radio Tehran by the Ayatollah a few years ago. Now this is something that makes me as an Arab observer uncomfortable. First of all, frankly, it's hypocritical for a leader of a secular state and the head of the Bath Party to talk about Islam and the desecration of Mecca by Americans. Americans are nowhere near Mecca, but the fact is that when the great mosque in Mecca was seized by some extremists and fanatics only 11 years ago, 1979, this did trigger a wave of uneasiness around the Islamic world, beyond the Arab world that to the burning of our embassy in Pakistan. This is the sort of risk which is still out there and which concerns me, can he not only get hold of the Arab populous masses, but can he ignite seriously a Jihad?

MR. LEHRER: Can he do that, Fouad Ajami?

MR. AJAMI: Well, look whenever we hear the words Jihad, we rush to watch the crusades replay themselves, you know, the Muslims against Europeans. I agree with Dick Murphy, the irony of Saddam Hussein, now all of a sudden borrowing all the symbols off the late and unlamented Ayatollah Khomeini is very interesting. This is, you know, and also the talk of Saddam, in fact, posing as Robin Hood with a twist, with Saddam having -- when Khomeini was a threat to the neighborhood, basically Saddam posed as the sheriff of Notingham. Then lo and behold he puts on a mask and we face now Saddam as the champion of the oppressed and the hero of Islam. It's transparent really.

MR. LEHRER: Transparent to whom? Is it just transparent to us, is it transparent to the Arabs, to the Muslims all over the world, whom?

MR. AJAMI: Well, I think it's always divining public opinion in this large, aggregate society, it's very interesting. Take a look at this Arab world for itself, if we focus on that narrow neighborhood for a while. We know that the Jordanians have identified themselves with Saddam's cause to a certain extent, because anyway Saddam bluntly has promised them a share of the loot, that there is plenty to loot in Kuwait and you will get part of it. The Palestinians, unfortunately, to whom Kuwait, incidentally, is very generous, the Emir of Kuwait was one of the great patrons and financiers of Yasser Arafat, the Palestinians have identified themselves with Saddam because Saddam promises them a new place in the sun. The Egyptians, on the other hand, as has been noted before, they know the Iraqis too well and they know Saddam too well, so we should be very dubious about the idea that Saddam somehow now can rally the Muslim world against American power and against the House of Saud. One quick note, people in trouble are always very smart. A woman in Kuwait summed up what this war was about. She made it to safety, and she said two Iraqis came to Kuwait, the first was a professional army that came to fight, then came the second army from Southern Iraq, peasants who came to loot. They looted the cars, they looted the money, they looted the gold, and they raped women, and so on. You know, the Saudis watching this, the people in the United Arab Emirits, they understand what happened. Now if the Palestinians think that Saddam by his rise is going to have a solution because he is going to confront Israel in the Western part of the Arab world, having taken care of the Persians in the Eastern part of the Arab world, they are going to be disamused. This is no Robin Hood. He is not going to share any loot. He has a vision and in his vision all the Arabs will submit to the center of power on the Tigress and the Ufretes, him as the great new man.

MR. LEHRER: It's not going to happen though you don't think. Let me ask you, Mr. Rabin, one of the scenarios that has been thrown around is that if, in fact, Saddam Hussein feels cornered and he feels he has to do something, that he might put troops in Jordan or he might in some way pose a threat to Israel, and in that way get Israel drawn in and in that way get the Arabs back to him. Is that something that Israel is aware of and concerned about?

MR. RABIN: Well, Israel is worried about aggressive intentions of Saddam Hussein since the end of the fighting with Iran. We consider, or at least I consider one of the greatest strategic mistakes of the Arab countries and the United States to allow Saddam Hussein to neutralize the threat from Iran that for 30 years, especially during the Shah's time, practically neutralized Iraq's ambitions with Iran down, practically Saddam Hussein turned to the West, and it was clear to us that his ambitions are unlimited. We thought that it might be that the first target would be Israel, but Saddam Hussein is a clever guy, crazy but clever. He realized that Israel is a too strong target to fight against. For that he had to have more means, more resources, and practically the way that I see, when he took weight, he practically robbed a bank, a very rich bank. They had to supply money, money to increase his military strength, political influence, to take all the, politically most of the Arab countries against the policy of Pres. Mubarak that basically believed in solving in the Arab and the Arab -Israeli conflict by peaceful means. Now I believe that Saddam Hussein faces mainly the United States. There is nobody in the Arab countries that has got the military force to present any match to the Iraqi forces. Syria would not dare. Syria always supported Iran because of the feeling what will happen if Iraq will come with the upper hand from its war against Iran. Egypt is far away, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, all the oil countries, have no military strength. This is why the key is the United States. The decision of the summit meeting today at Cairo no doubt psychologically helps the United States on the international scene, domestically, but everybody in the Middle East knows that the military strengths of the United States, it's determination not to allow Saddam Hussein to use its force to have effective embargo and blockade. This is what will decide the developments in the region, especially if the goal of the United States is to stall the situation to what it used to be without prolonged readiness to maintain the United States forces in Saudi Arabia, and to have effective embargo, nothing will work.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Fuller, do you agree with that, that the United States and its willingness to put forth and its staying power remain the key to that tonight?

MR. FULLER: I think it's very important that the United States demonstrate and fulfill its commitment to defend Saudi Arabia against possible attack from Saddam Hussein. But I think we have got to be very careful if we think that simply by eliminating a bully in the region that we can sort of go home again and feel good about the region. There's some good news and some bad news here. I would argue that the good news is that Saddam Hussein, as I mentioned earlier, has a very poor political sense. I don't think that he has been able to exploit these regional issues anywhere nearly effectively as other leaders in the Arab world, such as Nasser in the years past, or indeed if we had even Hafa Sal-Assad in Syria conducting this against us, it would be far more serious. These men are politicians. The bad news, apart from the good news that Saddam is not the man to play the political game, is that there are some very real issues in the region that are in a sense waiting to be exploited by some more capable demagogue. One of them is the issue of poverty and the question of democratic freedoms in the entire Arab world or the Arab people in most states are waiting for some kind of liberation in this sense, including in the Persian Gulf. These are not oppressive regimes, but they are authoritarian and they do not allow freedom. The second area is of course the Palestinian situation. I think it would be a mistake to suggest that this has nothing to do with the Gulf. This is the last truly explosive issue really in the world if you think about it, in a changing environment in which almost all major international crises and issues such as South Africa and the Soviet Union and Afghanistan and Southeast Asia are moving towards resolution, we find the Palestinian situation stuck on a dime, with a very angered, resentful people under occupation and seeking independence. That is a powder keg that is just waiting to be exploited by someone capably, and thank God, Saddam Hussein is not the man capable enough of exploiting this fully.

MR. LEHRER: What do you think of that, Bruce?

MR. VAN VOORST: Well, I think it would be dangerous to under estimate the significance of this Arab League decision today. It is true that the United States is going to have to carry the military burden there, but, in fact, if the Arab League, and we don't know what the military contingent will be, the Arab League sends three privates and a corporal, we've got an international operation going there and that has great significance militarily because it really provides an international cover for our being there. At the same time, I just don't want to under estimate the diplomatic significance of the Arab League staying in the action. We after all are looking down the pike towards what kind of compromise will ultimately emerge from all of this, and one thing to do is keep these countries involved diplomatically, so that at some point they may be the ones who can talk to Saddam Hussein.

MR. LEHRER: But what about Mr. Fuller's point that the immediate crisis aside, that there's a much bigger problem there, and the Arab journalists said the same thing, that even Saddam Hussein has got his problems, the issues he's raising are real?

MR. VAN VOORST: That's what I suggested earlier, that the bad news on that speech is that there is an appeal to the popular opinion in the Arab world, but we have to take the crises one at a time as they come, and the immediate one is in Kuwait and on the border now for which by the way the administration today continued to accelerate the military build up. I think that even as we've watched the progression this week, it's amazing how many troops, in fact, are going to be sent to the region.

MR. LEHRER: Two hundred and fifty thousand?

MR. VAN VOORST: You can draw that figure out of the air possibly, and sure at some point, but what we're going to see this weekend already, I gather the 24th mechanized infantry will be moving out of Savannah on the weekend, and we're also going to see some air transport of the Marines out at Camp Pendleton in California, so the force build up has continued at a very rapid rate, quite aside of course what Sec. Baker was talking about and our allies are going to be doing.

MR. LEHRER: Well, thank you all five of you very much for being with us. NEWS SUMMARY

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Today's news out of Iraq again affected Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost the ground it gained yesterday, closing down 42 points. In the oil markets, bench mark West Texas crude rose more than $1/2 a barrel to just over $26, and in other economic news today the Labor Department reported that wholesale prices fell 0.1 percent in July. That's the first decline in the index since April. And late this afternoon, Washington, D.C. Mayor Marion Barry was found guilty on one count of cocaine possession and not guilty on another. A federal jury in Washington said they could not reach agreement on the remaining 12 counts of cocaine possession and perjury. Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson declared a mistrial on those counts. Federal prosecutors could retry Barry on the 12 remaining charges. RECAP

MR. LEHRER: Again recapping today's developments in the Middle East crisis, Iraq's Saddam Hussein called for an Arab Holy War against the United States and other Western forces in the Persian Gulf. He also demanded the overthrow of the Saudi government. Pres. Bush said Hussein's statements were a frantic ploy of a cornered, desperate man. And in Cairo, 12 members of the Arab League agreed to create an Arab force to protect Saudi Arabia from Iraq. They also agreed to impose economic sanctions against Iraq. Good night, Charlayne.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Good night, Jim. We'll be back on Monday night with more coverage of the crisis in the Arab world, plus a look at where this leaves America's energy needs.