The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MacNeil: Good evening. Leading the news this Friday, President Bush said he isn't convinced the country's in a recession but would consider a tax cut. The Western allies imposed economic sanctions on Yugoslavia. We'll have details in our News Summary in a moment. Jim.

MR. LEHRER: After the News Summary, we look at the message of Magic Johnson's having the HIV AIDS virus. Jeffrey Kaye reports from a Los Angeles high school, two AIDS experts and two educators discuss how to act on that message. Then comes a Newsmaker interview with Deputy Sec. of State Lawrence Eagleburger on whythe killing in Yugoslavia can't be stopped and we close with an Anne Taylor Fleming essay about life in our times. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: President Bush said today he did not think the country was still in a recession, but he acknowledged the economy was growing too slowly. He said he might consider a tax cut proposal by House Democrat Dan Rostenkowski, but only if it did not increase the federal deficit. He spoke at a news conference in Rome after the close of the NATO summit meeting.

PRES. BUSH: I'd love to be in a position to pledge every American whatever a tax cut. But I don't want to do that when I can't see how to do that and keep it inside the budget agreement. Interest rates are in good shape now in the United States. Soon they're going to kick in and stimulate this economy, and renew confidence in this economy.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Bush said he did not support Rostenkowski's plan to raise taxes for wealthy Americans. He said he had learned the hard way about raising taxes. He also said the administration was moving forward with a proposal to provide health care for Americans without medical insurance. He said he would unveil it before the election next year. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: The President also reacted to the news about basketball star Magic Johnson. He was it was a tragedy that Johnson had been inflicted with the AIDS virus. He called Johnson a hero to everyone who loved sports. Mr. Bush defended his administration's fight against AIDS, saying it had dramatically increased funding for AIDS research. He was also asked what he thought of criticism that he'd failed to provide sufficient leadership on the issue.

PRES. BUSH: If there's more I can do to empathize, to make clear what AIDS is and what it isn't, I want to go the extra mile, because my heart goes out to them. I've been to hospitals and seen them. I've talked to some of the victims of AIDS, and I can't say I've done enough. Of course, I haven't.

MR. MacNeil: Vice President Quayle also spoke about Magic Thompson and the AIDS virus today. He was asked about Johnson's promise to spread the message of safe sex to young people. Mr. Quayle spoke in Los Angeles.

VICE PRESIDENT QUAYLE: I would like to emphasize abstinence. Abstinence perhaps even more important than safe sex. But both of them should be discussed and both of them can have an impact on this issue.

MR. MacNeil: We'll have more on the Magic Johnson story right after the News Summary.

MR. LEHRER: The NATO summit at Rome ended today with a declaration reaffirming the U.S. role in defending Europe. We have a report narrated by Vera Frankel of Worldwide Television News.

MS. FRANKEL: President Bush described the NATO summit as a landmark event which reaffirms NATO is Europe's guardian. With the collapse of communism in the East, the role of NATO, itself, and America's within it, had been open to question. France, not a member of the alliance, has been calling for Europe to develop its own defense strategy. The issue of separate European defense was important enough for Bush and French President Mitterrand to meet earlier on. A carefully worded NATO communique said French proposals would not diminish the role of America in Europe's defense and this apparently suited Mitterrand, who said it met the wishes of those who do want to develop a European defense identity. The Bush itinerary also took in an audience with the Pope. The meeting took place immediately after the NATO summits closed and lasted an unusually long 62 minutes. The Vatican said the two men discussed the Yugoslav crisis and the prospects for Mideast peace.

MR. LEHRER: Also in Rome today the European community suspended aid to Yugoslavia and asked the United Nations to impose an oil embargo. EC leaders hope such sanctions will bring an end to the four month old civil war there. In Yugoslavia, the federal army said it had missiles aimed at targets in Croatia. Federal planes continued to fly attack missions over the republic. Rebel forces fired back with ground to air missiles and scored at least one hit. More than 3,000 people have died in the fighting since Croatia declared independence in June. We'll have more on this story later in the program.

MR. MacNeil: A powerful car bomb exploded at the American University in Beirut today. The pre-dawn blast killed one person and wounded eight others. It destroyed more than half of the schools two story administrative building and devastated its library. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack. In Hong Kong, more than 50 Vietnamese boat people began an unwanted trip home. They were the first of some 50,000 the British colony will forcibly repatriate. Today's group included many women and children. Some resisted the Hong Kong police, who wore sweat suits instead of uniforms for the operation. The United States has said it opposes the use of force against the boat people.

MR. LEHRER: The Federal Communications Commission today said faulty equipment and negligent management at AT&T contributed to a widespread phone outage on September 17th. Communications on the East Coast and air travel at the major New York airports were disrupted. The agency asked AT&T to investigate its problems and report back with solutions. An AT&T spokesman said the company had already identified many problems and was working to fix them.

MR. MacNeil: That's it for the News Summary. Still ahead on the NewsHour, the message in the Magic Johnson story, Yugoslavia at war with itself, and an Anne Taylor Fleming essay. FOCUS - TOUGHEST OPPONENT

MR. MacNeil: For our lead story tonight: What is the real message in the Magic Johnson story? The announcement that the basketball super star has the AIDS virus dominated the news today. Not since screen star Rock Hudson disclosed he had AIDS in 1985 has a major celebrity captured public sympathy and attention of such magnitude. But Johnson is in a different category, an athletic hero to millions of Americans, and his announcement had an extraordinary impact on young people. Johnson addressed that in his news conference yesterday.

EARVIN "MAGIC" JOHNSON: I will now become a spokesman for the HIV virus because I want people, young people, to realize that they can practice safe sex, and you know sometime you're a little naive about it and you think it could never happen to you, you only thought it could happen to, you know, other people and so on and all, and it has happened, but I'm going to deal with it, and my life will go on.

MR. MacNeil: In Los Angeles, Correspondent Jeffrey Kaye of public station KCET reports on how that message was received.

SPOKESPERSON: By this happening to Magic, it will open the eyes of more people.

MR. KAYE: This morning at the People Who Care Youth Center in South Los Angeles administrators met with counselors in the AIDS education project.

OLDEN WALLACE, PWC: To have somebody of that stature, you never would think that something like that would happen to him, but this now sheds light on the fact that this is not just a gay disease. It's everybody's disease.

RICHARD NERI, PWC: He's their idol and knowing that this could happen to him, they're going to say, oh, this happened to him, it might happen to me, so they'll listen and they'll wear the condoms.

MR. KAYE: Connie Wynn is project director of the federally funded program. We went with her to a high school for students who have been in trouble, students she feels are the most at risk for contracting the AIDS virus.

CONNIE WYNN, People Who Care: Basically they come from a single family home. They are drop-outs of what we call mainframe schools. They are either actively or involved in gang involvement, basic things of that nature.

MR. KAYE: And they are more likely than other kids, do you think --

MS. WYNN: To be actively participating in sex.

MR. KAYE: And to get AIDS?

MS. WYNN: Yes.

MR. KAYE: Wynn's program is targeting these youngsters. The students here said they had been shocked by the news about Magic Johnson and many said they'd learned an important lesson.

FEMALE STUDENT: It was hard to believe.

MR. KAYE: Yeah. Why?

FEMALE STUDENT: Because it seemed like he would be the last person to have something like that.

MR. KAYE: Did it make you start thinking about what you do and your own behavior?

MALE STUDENT: Yeah.

MR. KAYE: In what way?

MALE STUDENT: Because if he could get it, anybody could get it.

OTHER MALE STUDENT: It wasn't on my mind.

MR. KAYE: It wasn't on your mind before. And now?

MALE STUDENT: I would never think about it until Magic Johnson would, you know, every channel you turned to Magic Johnson was there talking about AIDS, you know. It wasn't on my mind until now, you know. It makes me want to leave it alone.

MALE STUDENT: I didn't pay much attention to it, but now like, you know, one of my biggest role models got it, I can think, you know, I can get it same place he got it. You know, so now you got to be afraid of this, so you've got to do something about it and protect yourself.

MR. KAYE: Does anyone disagree with what he said? Did you all hear -- you disagree with what he said?

MALE STUDENT: Yes. I don't feel that I'm afraid of it, because all I have to do is don't do nothin' that will like, umm --

MR. KAYE: Bring it on.

MALE STUDENT: Yeah, somethin' like that.

MR. KAYE: You work with these students every day.

KENNETH RILEY, Counselor: Yeah.

MR. KAYE: Do you think that this will change behavior?

KENNETH RILEY: In some of them, not all of them. Some of them will still go out there and do the same old thing they've been doing, you know. I mean, it's just like that, you know, we take chances. And we don't even know how he contracted the virus, period. So once we find that out, we probably, you know, can deal with it more and, you know, and understand it more.

MR. KAYE: Is that important to know?

MR. RILEY: Yeah. It's important to know that -- to everybody he seemed like he was a straight guy, you know, and didn't mess with none of the women and I mean, you know, that would really -- you know --

MR. KAYE: It's got you wondering whether maybe he was gay.

MR. RILEY: No, not that he was gay. I didn't say he was gay. Don't get me wrong. [People laughing and chattering in room]

DARIN GRAY, Teacher: People want to know does it affect them? As long as it's perceived as a homosexual disease, heterosexuals believe themselves to be free from it.

MR. KAYE: One student was fatalistic about his chances of getting AIDS.

STUDENT: I'll probably just keep on the same. You're going to die anyway. I can go outside and through a drive-by I dy.

MR. KAYE: A drive-by shooting?

STUDENT: Yeah, I could die by anything, not just by AIDS, but by somethin' else.

MR. KAYE: As we left the classroom, Connie Wynn was besieged with requests for condoms. She feels Magic Johnson's story might challenge the sense of invulnerability that many teenagers feel.

MR. MacNeil: Now we hear how two doctors see the message in the Magic Johnson story. Mathilde Krim is the President of the American Foundation for AIDS Research. Dr. Reed Tuckson is the President of the Charles R. Drew University of Medicine & Science in Los Angeles, one of the four historically black health education institutions in the country. Dr. Tuckson is the former public health commissioner of Washington, D.C., and joins us from Atlanta. Dr. Krim, does the reaction show that AIDS education so far has not worked?

DR. KRIM: Well, we know that to a large extent it has not worked because one thing is to be aware of a problem; another thing is to really understand it. And the third part is to apply what one has learned to one's behavior. And the last thing certainly has largely failed. And the second one also. True understanding of the biology of the situation I think is very poor also.

MR. MacNeil: Why do you think it has failed?

DR. KRIM: Because most people in our culture still find it very difficult to talk about sexuality. And that's a big problem. First, the teachers have to learn, the counselors, how to talk about it. We don't even have certain words to say certain things in our language. So it is difficult to communicate.

MR. MacNeil: Or we have words and people don't want to use them.

DR. KRIM: Yes. There are words that people find very difficult to use.

MR. MacNeil: Do you agree, Dr. Tuckson, it's failed so far, the, getting the message of AIDS across?

DR. TUCKSON: Certainly it has not been as effective as it needs to be. People continue to lose their lives unnecessarily, so I think that, yes, we have failed. And the reasons are very complex. Certainly as Dr. Krim has mentioned it is our, the difficulty we have in being able to use language. There are enormous restrictions placed upon health educators in being able to talk frankly and honestly with young people about this disease. They're all a matter of legal and other mandates that limit and make it very difficult to, in fact, communicate in ways in which are young people are going to understand or that narrow the dimensions of the topics which can be discussed. Secondarily, there is also that, there are so many other competing obstacles that make it very difficult to break through, to get young people or many other members of our community to be able to concentrate on this message as the pressures of everyday living, of a number of other very immediate and difficult catastrophes must be confronted or managed or negotiated on a day-to-day basis.

MR. MacNeil: You mean this seems like a distant risk compared with other things?

DR. TUCKSON: I think the young man in the film clip was very tragic but very correct in terms of representing the view of many of our young people. And that is that they just do not believe that they have any concept of the possibility of a meaningful future, that as long as homicide is a leading cause of death, they feel that they won't get out of their twenties. Worrying about something that will happen to them in twenty-five, thirty, or forty, is to them, to many of them, a theoretical consideration.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Krim, who are the people now most at risk for new HIV infection?

DR. KRIM: I would say that the trend is towards heterosexual people who use, abuse drugs, drugs taken by injection. In many states of this country it is still not legal to purchase needles and syringes and, therefore, most addicts don't have as many as they want, and, therefore, they share them with each other. That is the most efficient way of transmitting HIV from one person to another, to share contaminated needles. People then, many of them, addicts, acquire the virus through needles, but then because they are mostly young adults, who are also sexually active, transmit it to others sexually. And we know now that a good portion, perhaps as many as half the women who are becoming infected with HIV, are women who have never used drugs themselves, but they have a husband or a boyfriend who has and perhaps only years ago. There is a very long time between infection and disease, as long as ten or eleven years on average, during which people carry the virus, are capable of infecting others, and don't appear sick, so that their sexual partners are not warned. And this is when addicts, perhaps previous addicts, reformed addicts, still can pass the virus onto their sexual partners. And that is the main source of infection in the heterosexual population. In New York, among recently reported cases of AIDS, a good half cases related to addiction this way but not necessarily due to addiction and to needles.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Tuckson, what is your view of who's most at risk, and what is the degree of risk of those young people we just heard Jeff Kaye talking to in Los Angeles?

DR. TUCKSON: People that are most at risk are those who have been unable to hear the message and to be able to act on that message in a way that causes them to change their behavior. The people that are at most risk are heterosexual persons, people who are bi-sexual and homosexual, people who are IV drug abusers, their sexual partners, people who have not gotten the message after all that we've tried to do that, in fact, they need to change their behaviors. What is the magnitude of that risk? That risk is difficult to quantify. It is significant enough a risk, and as we have clearly learned from this very dramatic example of Mr. Johnson, that that risk is significant enough that every literate thinking, intelligent person who is in the sound or the voice of this program ought realize that they as an individual are at enough risk that they need to change their behavior in ways consistent with their own survival today. That's the degree of seriousness of the magnitude of the risks.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Tuckson, what should parents and teachers be telling Johnson's, Magic Johnson's millions of young fans about the lesson for them?

DR. TUCKSON: I think it is an extremely important opportunity that we have as adults, as members of families, as teachers, as counselors, as mentors of our young people. And that example ought to be that this virus does not respect your social class, the amount of money you make, your celebrity, your popularity in school, or any of those phenomenon. This virus only cares about your behaviors and that each of us is at risk if we continue to behave in inappropriate ways. I think the other thing that we ought to teach our young people as a result of this experience is to be able to celebrate the degree of dignity that this man has and his courage in facing the issues square on with a sense of resolve, with a sense of seriousness of purpose. I think that what it ought to do is to diminish or eliminate any opportunity for our young people to think that this is a disease that carries with it stigmata or that we ought to discriminate against persons who have this disease, that they are fodderfor being made fun of or being shunted off into dark corners of our society. I think we have finally the opportunity to teach our children a very fundamental lesson about compassion, and our responsibilities as human beings to care about the rest of the members of the human family, especially in this case those who are living with a disease called AIDS.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Krim, what should parents and teachers be telling young admirers of Magic Johnson?

DR. KRIM: Parents should first of all realize that their own children, starting very early in adolescence, are to a large extent sexually active and, in effect, the younger they are the more promiscuous they are sexually speaking. So this is the first lesson that parents should keep well in mind when they talk to their children. They should teach their children, if they can, the facts of life and how the children can protect themselves from acquiring the infection. It is often difficult, however, for parents to talk openly about sexuality to their children, and in this case we need to have schools also equipped to provide this kind of education and information. The information should be provided in the language that it is not judgmental. It should not make a moral judgment. That is not the province of the school. And the parents can do that and some of them will choose to add to the lesson advice that abstinence is, of course, the best road for safety, the safest road. But, nevertheless, parents should not live under the illusion that advice about abstinence will achieve abstinence. And they should provide all the practical frank information children need.

MR. MacNeil: Okay. Let's go to two people involved in educating children and teen-agers about AIDS and sex. Kathleen Sullivan is director of Project Respect, and education and resource company funded by the Department of Health & Human Services. Her company distributes textbooks advocating abstinence to 1800 middle schools and high schools around the country. Sharon Schilling is a health education specialist in the Denver public schools. Ms. Shilling, what should schoolchildren and teen-agers be told and does Magic Johnson's story make it easier to tell it?

MS. SCHILLING: Certainly, I think it makes it easier to tell children about the topic of AIDS, the disease and the virus that causes it. I think it's going to encourage parents to speak up who have still been denying that it's something real for their children. It's going to cause people to take this disease out of the boxes they put it in where they assume that it cannot happen to them. And I think it's going to put a burden on schools to talk to youngsters who are younger and younger. We need very much to help kids feel that they can be successful in school. They need to see that learning in school will have a happy result for them and we need to help them feel comfortable with their bodies and all of its parts and feel that all the parts of them are valuable. Maybe if we did that, instead of not giving them the worth that they have by not giving them their proper names, they would consider all of their parts to be valuable and they would know it's important to make good decisions about all of them. I think that's a tremendous task, because it isn't just parents who have these difficulties. It's teachers also. So we all have to learn so that we can be helpful to our kids. They need a hand to hold in a world that is increasingly dangerous. And we simply, if Magic Johnson did one thing for us, he confronted the issue head on. As parents and teachers we need to do that ourselves. We need to confront the issues head on, confront our own discomfort, and realize that we have to overcome it, because the youngsters coming up are too important not to do that for and we are the grown-ups.

MR. MacNeil: Ms. Sullivan, what is the message of the Magic Johnson case to you and does it make your job easier.

MS. SULLIVAN: Well, it certainly has been --

MR. MacNeil: Sorry you appear a bit in darkness at the moment. We've lost a light there, but we can hear you very well.

MS. SULLIVAN: Well, the fact is that our experience in teaching abstinence has just been phenomenal. Of all the schools that we have had in our pilot program both at the federal level, as well as over 80 schools in the state of Illinois pilot, it is a universal, tremendous improvement in attitudes and behavior. What we can now show statistically is that our youngsters respond incredibly well to that straight, strong message of abstinence. In fact, I think they do a lot better than the adults have given them credit for.

MR. MacNeil: So what is the Magic Johnson emphasis on safe sex going to do to that and to your task?

MS. SULLIVAN: Well, I am hoping that given the chance to discuss this with him that maybe he will realize too that the greatest advantage he can give to our young people is to show support for the healthiest lifestyle, because, after all, he is paying the incredible consequence of not being straight and following abstinence, which would be the healthiest way to live. The message we need to give them is that being promiscuous is unhealthy, regardless of the sex of your partner. And that's what we need to get out very clear to all our youngsters.

MR. MacNeil: Ms. Schilling --

MS. SULLIVAN: And we ask our youngsters -- there's one statistic that I think would be very informative to our listening audience. When we ask youngsters, do you think sexual urges are controllable, they can answer always, sometimes or never. Only 4 to 5 percent of them say never, which tells us that they know instinctively this is something that can be controlled. What they want to know is why should I control it and how do I control it, and that's what our programs are designed to do. And I hope that there will be many more programs, materials, and emphasis in the abstinence area at the federal level as well as the state level.

MR. MacNeil: Ms. Schilling in Colorado, is abstinence a realistic behavior to teach?

MS. SCHILLING: I think it has to be taught as realistic, particularly for young teens, not only because of the threat of AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases and the twin threat of teen pregnancy, but I think it needs to be taught because sexual intercourse and sexual relationships are very heavy duty for young, immature kids to handle. So the message should be strong that abstaining is certainly an option. I think it's equally important for us to think about the fact that all people, including teens, are not going to abstain. They need a clear message that it is the best choice when they are young. I think we need to understand that people are not going to stop having sexual intercourse and sexual relationships because of AIDS. They're going to continue to and so we have to take a look at the picture from that point of view.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Tuckson said earlier, Ms. Schilling, Dr. Tuckson said earlier that there are a lot of restrictions placed on teachers who are trying to talk frankly and educate children about sex. Is that true and is Magic Johnson's coming forward going to make a difference in this, in the taboos?

MS. SCHILLING: Certainly. I think that sex is still a taboo and I think the crisis of AIDS has made that even clearer to us. I'm in the West, as you know, in Denver, Colorado, and this is a very independent part of the nation. And I feel that we have more support from parents here to be clear in our message to kids and to speak articulately to them. And I don't feel that we are restrained to such a degree that we cannot provide education on sexual issues. We do ask for parent permission. We do begin programs early. And our Board of Education has been very supportive. So I think there certainly is strength being lent to programs of this kind and I think Magic Johnson's courage in speaking out has been a tremendous help. I certainly recommend him, with HIV or without it, as a role model for kids, because he's confronted the issues, and that is the message we're trying to get across.

MR. MacNeil: Ms. Sullivan, what percentage of teen-agers are sexually active in your view?

MS. SULLIVAN: Well, that's an interesting question because generally when they're referred to, it's 40 to 50 percent. But that really includes what we really know are the first and one and two timers. The number of students who are really active consistently is more like 12 to 15 percent. And even those, many of them, as I've mentioned, are from the statistics of those that say they know they can control their sexual emotions. They want to get out of it because it didn't turn out to be what they saw on television. It is traumatic to them. The emotional trauma, as well as many other diseases besides AIDS, is what really is the problem today, not just pregnancy. And our youngsters see this. They see their peers. They've seen the trauma in their families. And they want to get out of it. They're looking for help to get away from being trapped in a sexual situation or with drugs or with alcohol. And by the way, the three go together. We have found and it can be proved that where the kids are involved in one, they're involved in two or three. So it has to be approached in a composite manner. And this is one of the reasons, because of the involvement in alcohol and drugs too, that you cannot say that they can be taught to use contraceptives or condoms. They are simply too young, too immature to be able to. And the teachers will tell us, if you tell them to be equipped for sex, they will be equipped, they will try to use it, and they simply are not able to. And that's where the emotional trauma is devastating.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Krim, what is your comment on the two approaches we heard?

DR. KRIM: I think I feel closer personally to the educator, Miss --

MR. MacNeil: Ms. Schilling.

DR. KRIM: -- Schilling, yes, right. On the other hand, you know, I was listening to what Ms. Sullivan was saying and there is something to what she was saying, that very often young teen-agers are pushed into sexual activity by their peers or the culture surrounding them. And many of them do feel stressed and really don't particularly like it and could welcome advice to let go and that it's okay to abstain from being sexually active. On the other hand, you know, the truth is as usual in-between the two positions. It is a reality that despite our best efforts to prevent early sexual behavior, there will always be some who will practice it. It is important that teen-agers very early on have at least the information they need and access to means to protect themselves from acquiring sexually transmitted diseases or pregnancy or AIDS.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Tuckson, what's your view of the two approaches we've heard?

DR. TUCKSON: I think Dr. Krim has it about right. Any rational strategy from responsible adults would have to begin with advocating abstinence for our young people. That is intelligent and highly appropriate, however --

MR. MacNeil: It isn't a message that society sends very loudly, is it, when you look --

DR. TUCKSON: No.

MR. MacNeil: -- at the whole ambience of television and the movies and advertising and music?

DR. TUCKSON: And that is exactly right. And our children recognize our ambivalence about this. They recognize our schizophrenia. The society, in fact, as you correctly indicate, conducts its business through sexuality. The messages are everywhere and they're constant. And so as a result of that, we cannot bury our hands in the sand and assume that because we push and advocate and dream and hope and work for a world where our young people will, in fact, make the appropriate abstinence decisions, in fact, that will occur, not when the consequences are death and disease. And so as a result, we absolutely have to talk to our children first about abstinence, but then we have to deal with the reality that so many thousands and thousands of others will continue to be sexually active, despite our best advice, and to leave them ignorant, to leave them unprepared to give themselves the best chance to save their lives is a totally inappropriate decision for a responsible and loving society.

MR. MacNeil: Well, Dr. Tuckson, Dr. Krim, Ms. Schilling, and Ms. Sullivan, thank you all four for joining us.

MR. LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight, the killing in Yugoslavia and an Anne Taylor Fleming essay. NEWSMAKER - COMING APART

MR. LEHRER: Twelve cease-fires since the Serbians and the Croatians started killing each other in Yugoslavia four months ago. None of them have held. The shooting and the shelling and the bombing goes on. The death toll stands at at least 3,000, some say 5,000. It is a war over a country that is falling apart. The declarations of independence by the republics of Slovenia and Croatia in June were the trigger for much of the violence. The largest republic, Serbia, controls the federal army, and it has been fighting the Croatians, particularly in areas of Croatia inhabited by Serbian nationalists who don't want to be cut off from Serbia. Here are some recent reports we have received on the fighting.

ALEX THOMPSON, ITN: Outside the Serbian enclaves across Croatia and Slovenia, the federal army is under attack. Its men are being killed and they're killing. But there is another side to this conflict which has scarcely been reported in recent days. This is Galena, a town in Croatia where 70 percent are Serbian. They welcome Yugoslav tanks here, instead of attacking them. The minority Serbian enclaves in Croatia detest the idea of independence here. In Galena, the Serbian flag and Yugoslav flags fly proudly. Though when Croatian police saw this last week, they opened fire on this building, according to local Serbs. At least six people died here in Galena last week when local Serbs, enraged at the Croatians' sudden declaration of independence, attacked the local Croatian police force. And now there's an eery silence in the streets of what's become virtually a ghost town. And yet, Galena is less than an hour's drive from Zagreb. And this evening, violence now in Zagreb, the Croatian capital, for the first time there is shooting on the streets.

MR. THOMPSON: [August 5] This is the man the diplomats would like to deal with, Steve Bameshek, current holder of Yugoslavia's rotating presidency. As president, he is technically the commander in chief of the Yugoslav army, but his instructions don't appear to be carrying much weight. Instead, decisions about what the army are do are, it seems, being made by the chief of the general staff, General Agit, a hardline Communist. Observers believe he's been preparing the army he commands for a civil war. Modern Yugoslavia brought together peoples who'd fought on opposite sides during the second world war, Croats with the Germans, Serbs against them, a 20th century outbreak of a rivalry that existed for hundreds of years. What we now as Yugoslavia was first divided more than 15 centuries ago when the Roman empire was split between East and West, dividing the two parts of Yugoslavia that are still rivals today, under the Western Roman empire, Slovenia and Croatia using the Western alphabet and following Rome's religion. The Byzantine empire controlled what are now Serbia, Montenegro, and Macedonia. They've looked eastwards ever since. In the 14th century, the Ottoman or Turkish empire ruled Serbia, spreading Islamic culture through the area, while the Roman Catholic Austro-Hungarian empire dominated now what's Northern Yugoslavia, including Slovenia and Croatia. That tangled historical background makes it all the more difficult for the outside world to influence the current conflict in Yugoslavia, fueled as it is by rivalries from the past.

CORRESPONDENT: [October 11] The convoy, laden with desperately needed medical supplies and food, had been promised safe passage by generals commanding the federal army which has lain siege to Vukovar. But as we passed through villages on the road to that devastated town, as well as shouts of encouragement, there were warnings. "You're all going to die," this woman sobbed. "Don't go to Vukovar; it's a trap." Entering Vinkovchi, the last town before Vukovar, it became easier to understand her fears. The Croatian national guards still hold the town but have taken a battering. Beyond here, the land, though Croatia, is controlled by the Serbian-dominated federal army. It was just as the observers were waiting for instructions to cross the no-man's-land, they came under mortar fire. The attack was brief and sent observers, guardsmen and Western journalists who'd been accompanying the convoy scrambling for cover but no one was seriously hurt. The observers contacted army generals, demanding an explanation and reliable guarantees. And out of sight of our cameras, the mercy mission was later turned back by the federal army.

CORRESPONDENT: [Today] The fortress on top of Mount Serch is the Croatian force's most vital defensive position and the key to Dubrovnik. Historically, whoever holds Serch also holds Dubrovnik. One look over the stone battlements tells you why. The ancient city, laid out in all its splendor, and vulnerability, it's medieval walls no defense against the army that has guns on top of this peak. Because of its strategic importance, Mount Serch was the first target when the Serbian-dominated federal forces launched their attack on Dubrovnik last month. Since then, the fort has come under almost daily attack. Two days ago, tank shells set part of the building ablaze. The guns were then directed at the city suburbs, shells and mortars falling on residential areas. Dubrovnik's residents claim the shells fired at them are a type that explodes in mid-air, riddling their homes with shrapnel. Here an old man and his grandson comfort each other in the wreckage that was their apartment.

CORRESPONDENT: [November 6] We saw several apartment blocks hit in a sustained attack that lasted more than three hours. If the Serbian-dominated army was hoping to destroy the Croatians' hidden gun positions, most of their shells fell on houses, as dozens of homes burned. Shells were also landing just in front of Dubrovnik's hilltop hospital. The city also came under fire from a federal navy gunboat patrolling the waters just a few hundred yards offshore. An island just outside Dubrovnik Harbor still held by Croatian forces also came under attack. It was the most sustained bombardment in weeks, leaving the latest European attempt to broker a cease-fire in tatters.

MR. LEHRER: Today the European community imposed sanctions against Yugoslavia and asked the United Nations to embargo oil, all in one more attempt to force the killing and the destruction to stop. Will it work? Well, that's the first question we ask now of the Deputy Secretary of State, Lawrence Eagleburger, who was ambassador to Yugoslavia from 1977 to '80. He is here for a Newsmaker interview. Mr. Secretary, welcome.

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Thank you.

MR. LEHRER: Will the economic sanctions stop this war?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: They will have an impact I think. I am personally of the view that they probably will not stop it, but they will put some more pressure particularly on the Serbs, but first of all, I think that it's not at all clear that they'll be able to be enforced. There will be a lot of leakage. So I think they'll put some pressure on. I do not think they'll bring it to a stop.

MR. LEHRER: What's driving the war now?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: It's a host of things, peace itself. The history is a part of it, a lot of small people who are, you know, intent on building their own little empires, not least of which is Mr. Malosevich, the Serbian leader who I think is intent on building a greater Serbian that runs to the Adriatic. It's that kind of thing. It is largely irrational, in my judgment, and it is largely insane, but it's there.

MR. LEHRER: Is there a rational solution to it?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Sure. But there may not be rational people to put the solution into place. The rational solution is for the various republics to negotiate the future of the country and to negotiate a future which says, all right, we're all going to split up and become separate republics, fine, but at the point of a bayonet, at the barrel of a gun, it is not a rational solution, and that's what they've all chosen.

MR. LEHRER: What is the United States doing to try to stop this?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Well, you know, again, one might ask what's really possible. The Secretary of State's been there. He's made it clear that our position is that they must negotiate their changes. We've had any number of statements. I personally met with almost all of the different republic leaders and --

MR. LEHRER: What do you tell them?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Basically, I tell them, you know, if you want a relationship with the United States in the future that means anything, you'd better understand that our position is that you must negotiate these changes, you can't do them at the point of a bayonet, and that we simply are not prepared to recognize the individual acts or acts where you change borders by force. That all sounds great but if you're dealing with irrational people, and by and large that's what this is, I'm not at all sure that it makes much difference.

MR. LEHRER: So you tell them that and what do they say to you, okay, Mr. Secretary, and they go away?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Essentially, yeah, essentially that. They all say, well, it isn'tour fault, it's somebody else's fault, and you know, at the present moment, I don't think there's any doubt that the principal fault lies with the Serbs and the Yugoslav national army, and the sorts of things that they are doing. But I would have to say too I think there is enough fault to go around with almost everybody.

MR. LEHRER: Is there any external -- in other words, if you could control all external events and all external countries and everything that's involved, is there an external way to stop this?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Again, in the abstract, if the West, for example, were prepared to put in a substantial number of troops and force these people to stop fighting, I suppose it could be done. But, you know, the Western Europeans and the United States are not prepared to put massive force into Yugoslavia to try to stop the fighting. So short of that, at this stage at least, I am personally of a view that the only thing that may bring it to an end at some point is when all of the participants are exhausted and when, in fact, they finally realize they can't solve the thing the way they are, then they may come back to the negotiating table. But I have to tell you, in my judgment, that is still some time away.

MR. LEHRER: Because right now they believe that they have everything to gain by continuing to go to war, is that right, all the signs?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Well, let me put it this way. I think there aren't any of them that are big enough to recognize that the only way to deal with this is to stop the war and to return to the negotiating table. Each has his own individual, little agenda he's trying to accomplis and with the Serbs, as I say, the worst of the bunch at the moment trying to build this greater Serbian, and so, yes, I think the answer is no one at stage sees a solution, other than to continue fighting.

MR. LEHRER: And that would define victory in the eyes of the Serbians, right?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: That's right, of course.

MR. LEHRER: That's what they want when they get there. Then they say, okay, fine, now we'll stop.

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: If, in fact, they don't exhaust themselves first, and I think there's a real chance that in the end all of the participants, all of the various people who are fighting with each other, may find that no one has the sufficient military force to bring this to a successful victorious conclusion. And we may find a very exhausted country. And in the meantime I would say to you they have all collectively ruined the economy of the country. The war has done far more damage to the economy than the sanctions may ever be able to do.

MR. LEHRER: Also, as I said in introducing this, there are all kinds of reports about how many people have been killed. It goes from sixteen hundred, a conservative count, and three thousand is one the New York Times was using today. But then one of the wire services this evening was using 5,000, which I reported. Can you add anything, shed any light on that?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: No. I would, again, personally and on the basis of what I've seen, I would guess the better estimate is somewhere between the three and five thousand estimate.

MR. LEHRER: Yeah. What do you say, Mr. Secretary, to those who would suggest the following? The President of the United States and the Secretary of State of the United States are turning all kinds of rocks to get peace in the Middle East.

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Right.

MR. LEHRER: Nobody's dying there right now in the Middle East. But all kinds of people, an awful lot of people are dying in Yugoslavia. Why are we not doinga similar kind of thing?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Because they're not the same kind of case. You know, in the Middle East, it would be exactly the same thing, and if you look at the history of our attempts to bring peace to the Middle East, I would argue it makes the same point. If the participants, themselves, are not prepared to accept the efforts of others to bring about a peace and if they are largely intent upon killing each other, there is not one thing the United States can do about it. That was certainly the history most of the time in the Middle East. What we have now is the participants in the Middle East, the various parties in the Middle East, at least some of them I think, clearly have recognized that time has run out and that, in fact, the only thing that may bring some peace and sanity to the area is, in fact, the involvement of the United States and the peace conference, for example, that's just taken place. If the Palestinians and the Israelis didn't want that conference because they wanted some other solution to a problem they haven't been able to solve themselves, it wouldn't have succeeded even as far as it has. The Yugoslav situation, it seems to me, is precisely the same kind of a case. The participants are intent on killing each other, for whatever particular reasons they may have, and most of them, at least, are not prepared to listen to reason from the Western Europeans who have tried now for six weeks to bring peace to the area. There's nothing much the United States can do unless we are prepared to use force to do it. And you and I both know that's nonsense.

MR. LEHRER: Why is it nonsense?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Because, in the first place, it would involve us potentially in a land war in the Yugoslavia. It would require massive numbers of troops. This is not a small country and it isn't that the fighting is isolated in one or two places. The American people aren't prepared, nor do I think they should be, to put military force in large numbers into a country like that where the people involved are intent on killing each other, not making peace. The Western Europeans aren't prepared to do it either. And I don't blame them as well. This is an issue, the United States can't solve, nor can the West Europeans solve a problem that the participants themselves are not willing to have us help in solving. They don't want it solved at this stage. They want their own little individual little objective and they're going to continue fighting till they get it.

MR. LEHRER: And if the Yugoslavians don't care about destroying the beautiful city of Dubrovnik, so why should anybody?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Don't carry it too far. Obviously, we should all care about destroying the city of Dubrovnik.

MR. LEHRER: No, no, I don't mean care. I don't mean care.

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: We do care, but, again, the issue is, do you want us to put the Sixth Fleet into the Adriatic so that the Yugoslavs can't bomb it? You know, there is a limit to what we can do to affect those events unless we are prepared to use force. We've done, we and the West Europeans have used every bit of diplomacy I think is available to us. The West Europeans have now moved to sanctions. We're looking at the possibility of joining with the West Europeans in those sanctions. That may have some impact. In fact, one can hope that it will have a major impact. But, again, I would say to you there's a limit to what we in the West can do unless the Yugoslavs are prepared to let us help them make peace. And at this point, that's clearly not the case.

MR. LEHRER: I remember you and I talked about this several months ago, and I remember asking you the worst case scenario and you pretty well laid out --

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: We're getting it. I think the potential is it's going to get worse.

MR. LEHRER: All right. Take me down that road.

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Well, barring the issue, as I said, that they all of a sudden wear themselves out, I am very much worried that, in fact, the civil war gets worse, that it spreads into places like Bosnia and Hercegovina, which I don't want to try to get into the geography, but which is a republic that sort of stands between Serbia and the sea and South of Croatia, in which there are both Croats and Serbs and Moslems, a mixed place, that could very well become a part of the war. The Macedonians to the South of Serbia are scared to death it'll spread there in Nocosovo, which is an area which is largely inhabited by Albanians, where the Albanians and the Serbs have had difficulties for years now. That could explode. This could become a very, very unpleasant and very bloody situation.

MR. LEHRER: With we're talking maybe three to five thousand now, many many more --

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: It could be a lot more than that. I'm not saying it will be. You know, if you carry out the sad scenario, the bad scenario, it could be very bloody and very messy for some period of time.

MR. LEHRER: Would you agree with those who say for all practical purposes the nation of Yugoslavia no longer exists, it shouldn't be put back together again now in any circumstances?

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: Two points. It certainly does not now exist. I think it is highly unlikely, and the longer the fighting goes on, certainly the more difficult it will be to put it back together, but at least from our point of view, we have not argued for a long time that it had to be put back together. What we have argued and will continue I think rightly to argue that the future of Yugoslavia must be decided peacefully at the negotiating table by the various participants. And if they agree that it should be broken up and each republic should be separate, that's fine. But what we all forget in this situation is sure, the Slovenians and the Croats want independence and the Serbs want a greater Serbia, but there are a lot of very innocent people lying around loose in Bosnia and Hercegovena, in Nokosovo, and in Macedonia, that nobody's paying attention to. And what is their future? And they ought to have a right to be engaged in the process of trying to negotiate out what that new future is. And nobody's paying any attention to them at all. It's these three participants who have become the center of all of this and there are a lot of very innocent people that are being hurt in the process.

MR. LEHRER: All right. Mr. Secretary, thank you very much for being with us again.

SEC. EAGLEBURGER: My pleasure, thanks. ESSAY - CIRCLE OF LIFE

MR. MacNeil: We close tonight with an essay. Los Angeles writer Anne Taylor Fleming reflects on a new book of photographs.

MS. FLEMING: Periodically, someone can seize an ambitious album of the human race, our collective photobiography from birth to death. "The Family of Man" was such a one. Thirty-six years after its publication, that book can still be found in bookstores and on coffee tables, where its black and white images are as compelling as ever. These lovers, I seem to remember them, tangled on the lawn, or this pair nuzzling on a French street, or these two in their sandy clinch. Love smiles from this book, trapped forever. So does struggle. This, the weather-beaten face of it, Dorothea Lang's unforgettable migrant farm worker, or this bare-legged girl curled up in grief, or is it just reflection? Picking up this book after some years is like picking up an old school album and seeing long forgotten friends. And now we have, in effect, a sequel, "The Circle of Life," another photo tome of life on the planet. So similar in intent to "Family of Man," it is enormously different in feel. It is a provocative barometer of how we choose to see ourselves now. Although the book starts with the final image from "The Family of Man," it has none of the random sweetness or sadness of its predecessor, none of its inviting innocence. No, "The Circle of Life" is a product of a far different world, an imagistically hip technicolor world, where everyone, it seems, strikes a pose. No casual lovers stroll through these pages. The couples here line up to pledge their troth and solemnly face the lens. In Havana, in Kentucky, in the Soviet Union, or what was the Soviet Union, in Ecuador, and in South Korea, they don their finery and say their "I do's." In fairness, solemn rituals like these weddings are the specific focus of this book. From baptisms, like this one in Moscow, and circumcisions, like this in Jerusalem, through adolescent initiation rites in Africa, and wedding nights in Morocco, on into English burials and flagrant far Eastern cremations, we anoint and consecrate, bathe, and burn, and shave and paint, and even maim ourselves in an effort to appease the gods and wrestle time to a standstill for one photogenic moment. Rituals are of the essence no matter how sophisticated we think we might be. That's the message of this montage. We are all asking for favors, all observing forms of one kind or another, rites of passage. Let us stand on the ceremony of our ceremonies, not on the ceremony of our differences. That's the United Nations' appeal underlying this collection, a glossy, sentimental rebuttal to the multicultural fragmentation we've been hearing so much about. For all of the intentional "We are the world" feeling to this book, what is remarkable about it, finally, is not the sum total of the pictures but the reverse, the handful of photographs that shine radiant individuality, both out of the seen and the seer, like this one of a young Egyptian girl having a clitoridectomy, one specific girl, one specific irrevocable act, one specific witness with a camera. Then there are a few action photos that truly bristle with gusto and peril, like this one of some scrappily macho teen-agers in Rio riding the rails, ducking under high-voltage wires as they flirt with death. You can hear their exhilarated whoops and hollers. There's just something authentic and alive about these few pictures, rare enough anymore in this magazine cover world we live in, rare enough even in this book, rare enough to look at again and again, like those two long ago lovers on their black and white lawn. Look! They're still there. I'm Anne Taylor Fleming. RECAP

MR. LEHRER: Again, the major stories of this Friday, President Bush said he did not believe the country was still in a recession but he would consider a Democratic plan to cut taxes for middle income Americans, and the European community imposed economic sanctions in an attempt to stop the civil war in Yugoslavia. Good night, Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Good night, Jim. That's the NewsHour tonight. We'll see you again on Monday night. Have a nice weekend. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.