The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MacNeil: Good evening. The economic offensive to isolate Saddam Hussein leads the news this Monday. The U.S. said its Naval blockade of Iraq would include food shipments, Britain and Australia agreed to help enforce the embargo, and Saudi Arabia turned away an Iraqi oil tanker from one of its ports. Jim.

MR. LEHRER: We again devote the bulk of the program to the crisis in the Middle East. We have interviews with the Saudi ambassador to the United States [FOCUS - DIFFERENCE OF OPINION] and the Iraqi ambassador to the United Nations, two former [FOCUS - ENFORCING THE BLOCKADE] admirals and an international lawyer explore blockading Iraq, and Elizabeth Brackett reports on the weekend at Ft. Bragg, home of the 82nd Airborne Division [FINALLY - TO THE FRONT].NEWS SUMMARY

MR. MacNeil: The United States today toughened its position on the blockade against Iraq. White House Spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said all shipments headed to Iraq, including food, would be stopped by the U.S. Navy. Fitzwater said the only exception would be medical supplies. The Bush administration is refusing to call it a blockade, instead calling it an interdiction. Saudi Arabia today prevented an Iraqi tanker from loading oil at the Port of Yanbu, and it shut off an Iraqi oil pipeline crossing Saudi Arabia to the port on the Red Sea. The U.S.S. Independence and two other aircraft carriers were in the Gulf area to enforce the blockade. A fourth aircraft carrier, the John F. Kennedy, is being sent to the area next week from its base in Norfolk, Virginia. Other warships are leaving today and tomorrow from their port in Savannah, Georgia. It was reported today that the U.S. ships have been ordered to fire on vessels that ran the blockade. Britain today sent mine sweepers to the Persian Gulf to join other forces it already has deployed in the area. It said it would help the U.S. stop any ships trying to break the embargo, as did Australia. France sent one of its aircraft carriers to the area today, but said it would not join the blockade. Pres. Bush continued his vacation in Kennebunkport, Maine, where he spent the day fishing. Mr. Bush will travel to Washington tomorrow for a Pentagon briefing on the crisis and a meeting with his economic advisers. The President will return to Kennebunkport late Wednesday. Jim.

MR. LEHRER: The first pictures of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait became available today. They were snuck out of Kuwait over the weekend. A British citizen shot them with a home video camera. He was in his room overlooking the British capital, Kuwait City. The video shows Iraqi troops landing on the beach 11 days ago. Soviet built helicopter gun ships took the troops to the heart of the city. The tape also shows black smoke billowing from Kuwait's main army barracks, one of the first targets in the attack. Kuwait was severely overpowered, but its troops did put up a fight. Iraqi troops here are seen retreating to the beach to recoup. It is not known how many people were killed in the invasion. More people who wanted out of Kuwait got out today. About 3,000 crossed into Jordan from Iraq; 77 of them were foreigners, none were American. But the U.S. State Department said at least 500 American citizens had managed to leave Kuwait since the invasion, that despite Iraq's policy against their leaving. Some 2500 Americans still remain in Kuwait; 500 others are in Iraq.

MR. MacNeil: Iraq has begun radio broadcasts to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, accusing Egypt's President, Josne Mubarak, of treason. Iraqi Radio accused Mubarak of making Egypt a tool for aggression in conspiracies against their Arab and Muslim brothers. Egypt has sent up to 3,000 troops to Saudi Arabia to defer an Iraqi attack. Sec. of Defense Cheney will visit Saudi Arabia on Friday, his second visit this month. FOCUS - DIFFERENCE OF OPINION

MR. MacNeil: Now an assessment of where Saudi Arabia stands in the current crisis. Roger Mudd has more. Roger.

MR. MUDD: With me is Saudi Arabia's ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan. He's the first member of the Saudi family to serve as a diplomat here in Washington. You are, sir, a former Air Force commander. Welcome to the broadcast, Prince. You have just come from the White House, as I understand it. With whom did you meet?

PRINCE BANDAR BIN SULTAN, Ambassador, Saudi Arabia: I had some meetings today in the White House with General Scowcroft and some meetings with other officials there.

MR. MUDD: What was the message that you received there?

PRINCE SULTAN: I will not go in to a discussion of the details of what I discussed there but you should not be surprised that I would consult with the senior Administration officials due to the high degree of cooperation we are having now with the deployment of American forces to assist us.

MR. MUDD: Did you detect on the part of General Scowcroft any nervousness about the way the events have unfolded?

PRINCE SULTAN: No I detected only sturdiness and that is the same attitude I think that I noticed with Secretary Baker and Secretary Cheney.

MR. MUDD: Now Secretary Cheney is returning to Saudi Arabia at the end of the week and the wire services report that he is going to tell the Saudi Government, he wants to stress American willingness to defend the Saudis. Why would that be necessary for him to stress that? Is there some doubt in your mind?

PRINCE SULTAN: No there is no doubt in our mind that all of our friends who have answered our request to come and assist us to deter and defend the kingdom against dome force with aggressive intentions, Iraq, I have not detected any doubt in my mind or any body in our country and I can not comment on an attributed statement because I have not heard that specific point raised with me.

MR. MUDD: But why is he going a second time?

PRINCE SULTAN: I think you should ask him.

MR. MUDD: Well I though since you were a representative of the host Government that you would understand why he was going?

PRINCE SULTAN: We always welcome our friends from the United States who ever they may be.

MR. MUDD: Tell me what the condition of the Iraqi threat is now against Saudi Arabia. What is the military situation?

PRINCE SULTAN: The military situation is still great as far as the size of the threat. Their forces inside the borders of Kuwait are increasing not decreasing and we have not seen any signs of de- escalating military on their side. There are still a large number of ground to ground missiles and their media and official statements are all hostile. That does not give us the comfort that a change of mind from what we believe were original aggressive tensions. You have to understand that none of this disastrous situation we have now in the Gulf and the Middle East and the world at large really is our creation or your creation or anybody else except President Saddam Hussein. President Saddam Hussein invaded and therefore his action brought in forces from outside the area. We did not bring in forces when he invaded as a reaction. It was a reaction against his aggression with Kuwait. And we are very distressed with what we see. We really would not like to see foreign forces come in to our region. Had we not looked across the Bay and across our border and saw a menacing threat to us. And you have to put in perspective. Two days before we requested assistance from our brothers in the Arab world and friends around the World including the United States. President Saddam Hussein invaded a brother Arab nations. He told us before that he would not invade. He told King Faud personally that he would not invade and he did. He told President Mubarack and KinG Hussein that he would not invade and he did. He told President Bush and President Gorbachev that he would not invade and he did. Then he told us he would withdraw and he didn't. Then he said he was not going to move his forces south and he did. Then he said he had no territorial ambition against Kuwait and he annexed it.

MR. MUDD: So what is your opinion of Saddam then?

PRINCE SULTAN: I am very very disappointed in Saddam.

MR. MUDD: That is a mild reaction?

PRINCE SULTAN: That is a mild reaction but believe me for a Saudi that is very strong because we are very respectful of other leaders of other nations let alone another Arab country like Iraq who were side by side standing with them through 8 years of war.

MR. MUDD: He is now calling for a Holy War against the Saudi royal Family and that is you and the infidels and that it us. So how do like being liked to we infidels?

PRINCE SULTAN: Roger I think I would have been very distressed had this call come from a Holy Man. You can not call for a Holy War if you are not holy yourself. President Saddam has always taken pride in being secular and leading a PArty that is secular. If I did not know it was him who said this I would have thought you were quoting Imam Komeini instead of Saddam Hussein. You remember ten days ago Saddam Hussein was singing praise of KinG Faud and the Saudi people. We still sing praise of the Iraqi people. We still have respect for them and we will always have respect for them. We respect the Iraqi army as brothers in arms b ut we have totally disillusionment with President Saddam.

MR. MUDD: Tell me Prince Bandar about the Saudi role in the embargo. Today was we reported you refused to let an Iraqi tanker come in. You have cut off the pipeline. What else will you do to isolate Iraq?

PRINCE SULTAN: To put in perspective this assistance that we requested from the United States and other friendly forces is there for pure defense to defend our country. It is not there for aggression against anybody unless they start the aggression. Now that we said that we are relying therefore on the United Nation Security council resolutions which are binding on all member states and this is the first time that you get such a massive solution with total agreement by the United Nations. So what we are doing is being internationally responsible and law biding world citizens in obeying the United Nations Security Council which says there will be embargo sanctions against Iraq. In that context we have stopped the pipeline unloading oil. There is difference between that and a blockade.

MR. MUDD: How long do you think that it will be before Iraq feels the pinch of this blockade?

PRINCE SULTAN: I really don't have a good feel for that Roger right now, however, if I did I wouldn't tell you because that would be telling the Iraqis what we think, what our plans are, what the worlds plans are. So I think that it is important to keep them guessing.

MR. MUDD: Well you leave me guessing. Thank you Prince Bandar.

PRINCE SULTAN: Thank you. FOCUS - ENFORCING THE BLOCKADE

MR. LEHRER: Now an exploration of what the U.S. Government calls interdiction of shipping to and from Iraq and what every one else calls a blockade. What ever the name it is at the heart of the effort to force Saddam Hussein and his Army out of Kuwait. We get three perspectives a legal one from Abraham Sofaer, A legal office in the State Department during the Reagan Administration. He is now a lawyer in private practice. And two military views one from retired Vice Admiral Thor Hansen who commanded a carrier battle group in the Mediterranean and who served as a staff officer on the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He is now Chairman of the Multiple Sclerosis Society in New York and from retired Rear Admiral Eugene Carroll. He commanded a carrier task force in the mediterranean and served in NATO. He is now Deputy Director for the Center for Defense Information. Mr. Sofaer first what is the difference between an interdiction and blockade?

MR. SOFAER: There is a difference between a blockade a formerly declared blockade and interdiction. Interdiction is what you do when you declare a blockade.

MR. LEHRER: A blockade is an act of war is it not?

MR. SOFAER: At one time that phrase itself meant something. An act of war yes. It is was considered something belligerents did against each other. But there are very good reasons for the Administration not calling what they are doing a blockade. Because in international law a blockade signifies a serious escalation of hostilities. Second a blockade imposed, the nation putting it in to place the requirement that it be effective. States were only obliged to abide by a declaration of a blockade if the blockade was practically effective.

MR. LEHRER: I am not sure that I understand that?

MR. SOFAER: Well if you blockaded a port and you were not effective at that blockade the nations trading with that nation would not have to abide by your blockade. In international law if you have an effective blockade in place third parties would have to abide by it. So the United States does not to impose by itself a technical obligation to be effective in its interdictions at all points.

MR. LEHRER: So an interdiction is the acts that the United States is prepared to commit to keep shipping from coming in and out of Iraq.

MR. SOFAER: Absolutely and finally I want to say if you have a blockade you have to declare the end of a blockade. It is a formalism that forces a state to a process that is really undesirable in a diplomatic way.

MR. LEHRER: So let us not talk about blockade let us talk about interdiction. That is what the Government says it is doing. And it is doing it, well the Saudi Ambassador just went through it too. It is based in the UN resolution is it not. Is that legal too.

MR. SOFAER: No the blockade.

MR. LEHRER: I don't mean the blockade I mean the interdiction.

MR. SOFAER: The acts of interdiction are not based squarely on the UN resolution itself. There are several UN resolutions one of which calls for economic sanctions across the board. Historically unprecedented this sweeping declaration of its kind ever. Now that resolution does not authorize ant state to engage in acts of interdiction. It orders the states and its citizens from commercial intercourse with Iraq orKuwait. But the resolution does very important things. It sets the factual predicate for the actions of the United States under article 51 of the UN Charter which permits the United States to engage in collective self defense with Kuwait.

MR. LEHRER: So as a practical matter the UNited States now with the cooperation of thus far the British and the Australians have taken their own action in deciding to interdict the ships from in and out of Iraq.

MR. SOFAER: That is clearly a fact but the blessing of the UN comes when the UN Security has declared Iraq an invader and aggressor and has proclaimed the legitimate government of Kuwait to be the prior Government, the Government in exile and has explicitly in the resolution said that the resolutions were not intended to withhold the normal authority that exists under article 51 for states to engage in collective self defense. So when Perez Dequaya is right when he says the interdictions are not occurring with U.S. sanctions. He is correct that as such the UN hasn't sanctioned that but he is wrong if he is suggesting that the factual predicates of the action have not been blessed by the UN. Because under the collective self defense the United States can not be having a formal request from Kuwait, from the legitimate Government of Kuwait to take necessary measures in its self defense. The U.S. Government could bomb Baghdad as a measure of self defense.

MR. LEHRER: Okay Admiral Hanson is the United States Navy in the right position to carry out this interdiction and stop traffic in and out of Iraq?

ADM. HANSON: I think they are. You have two pieces here if you are trying to stop oil from coming out of Iraq you have to concentrate on the Persian Gulf because just as has been stated earlier on this program the two pipelines through Saudi Arabia and through Turkey are essentially cut off. So if that is your problem you concentrate in the Persian Gulf and you do that by concentrating on the Strait of Hormuz because that is at a distance enough from Iraq that they would be hard pressed to come out and hit any of our ships that were enforcing this. Now that is one part of the you also have to worry about the Red Sea which is the port in Souther Jordan in which food stuffs and other supplies are coming. So I think with the Eisenhower group in the Red Sea with the Independence Group in the mouth of the Gulf and then also with the ships that we have in the Gulf we are in good shape to interdict.

MR. LEHRER: Do you agree, Adm. Carroll?

REAR ADM. EUGENE J. CARROLL, JR., U.S. Navy [Ret.]: No problem. The United States Navy alone can enforce a complete blockade, and whatever we call it, it's a blockade. The question, however, is why are we doing it? Why as the United States of America have we unilaterally taken this action? Under Article 51 of the UN Charter, we are entitled to act in support of other members until the Security Council acts. Well, the Security Council has acted under Article 41 of the Charter and it has said we authorize non-military measures, we authorize an economic sanction, the disruption of trade with Iraq. If that's inadequate, if the United States believes it to be inadequate, ask the Security Council to act under Article 42, which specifically and in exact words, it empowers them to impose a Naval blockade by the land, sea and air forces of member states. Why are we going off as the top gun, the loose cannon, unilaterally imposing this blockade, when our best interests are served by working within the community of nations, through the United Nations and the Security Council?

MR. LEHRER: Adm. Hanson, how do you see that question?

VICE ADMIRAL THOR HANSON, U.S. Navy [Ret.]: The President has said that he believes that we should enforce what he has listened to in the UN, the sanctions there. I think the actions of Iraq in taking over Kuwait very much would justify cutting off supplies to Iraq, so I don't have a great problem with us taking a lead in this. Very practically though, I have a strong suspicion that there aren't going to be too many ships to force this. Ships are expensive and if one of them does and is stopped, insurance rates are going to go up and I don't think we're going to see a lot of required action to make this thing happen. I think a threat of it is probably sufficient.

MR. LEHRER: What is your problem with the United States doing this, Admiral?

ADM. CARROLL: Well, we have said we're going in to defend Saudi Arabia, we have no offensive intentions whatever, we're not going to attack Saddam Hussein no matter how unlawful his actions have been to date, we're going to defend, and yet, here we are at sea, implementing acts of war, aggressive acts of war, stopping and searching ships on the high seas.

MR. LEHRER: Well, let's go through that. Explain how that works, you and Adm. Hanson. What happens if a U.S. Naval ship expects that a merchant ship A is about to run, is trying to take some supplies into Iraq, what happens?

ADM. CARROLL: Believe me, a lot of Naval commanders are reading this book right now which tells them what they do.

MR. LEHRER: What do they do?

ADM. CARROLL: What they do is signal the ship to stop.

MR. LEHRER: How do they signal it?

ADM. CARROLL: With signal flags, with radio signals, they can get the message across, you're to stop and submit to search. If they don't, we're entitled under the blockade procedures to use armed force. They will stop. We will send a search party on board with an officer to examine the ship's papers and the ship's cargo, and if we find, as Adm. Hanson says, contraband, we can seize that ship as a prize, take it into port and dispose of it. So far there's no indication that anybody's running a blockade, and yet here we are saying, we're going on our own authority to establish our own blockade, and it troubles me very much as to why we would engage in this aggressive behavior at sea.

MR. LEHRER: Adm. Hanson, anything you want to add to what Adm. Carroll has said about the process of the Navy, of how a Navy ship commander would go about the process of stopping a ship?

ADM. HANSON: I would agree with what Adm. Carroll said up to that point. If the ship refuses to stop, continues to go, you would then probably fire a shot across its bow to get its attention and it would assume it would heave to then and you would then do the same thing that Adm. Carroll is talking about, you would either send a boat over or if you've got helicopters, you could send a helicopter over and drop someone off.

MR. LEHRER: Having done that, then you could shoot at the ship if the ship did not stop, is that right?

ADM. HANSON: You could do that and if I were there, I would shoot certainly trying not to cause any loss of life. I'd shoot at the rudder, I'd shoot at the screws, try to stop the ship from proceeding but try not to harm people, you would do that. The other thing I might mention too. Suppose you check the manifest and you do all this and you feel that you can't find anything wrong, but you have some suspicions, you could always tell that skipper that we're going to track it as it proceeds up into the Gulf, for example, and we can do that with our early warning aircraft that are operating out of Saudi Arabia, you could track it, and if it then went the wrong way, i.e. toward Kuwait or further, you could then, you'd know that and be able to follow that.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Sofaer, how do you respond to Adm. Carroll's objections to what the U.S. is doing?

ABRAHAM SOFAER, Former State Department Official: Well, they're baseless factually, baseless to say that the U.S. is acting unilaterally is wrong. We have a formal request from the legitimate government of Kuwait and the Security Council has unanimously deemed the government in exile to be the legitimate government of Kuwait, asking us to take any necessary and proportionate measures in its collective self-defense. Now that goes far beyond whatever you might want to call these interdictions and the British have responded to that request and we have responded to that request. Other nations may join us in that response. Now the admiral mentioned Article 42. Of course the UN Security Council could impose a blockade through its own military resources, but Article 51 is also part of Chapter 7 in which Article 42 occurs, and it observes the inherent right of a state like Kuwait to defend it.

MR. LEHRER: What you're saying though Admiral, the legalities aside, the United States should not be going and doing this on its own?

ADM. CARROLL: Well, I'm first saying we do not have authority under the U.N. Charter to do this because the Security Council has acted and has taken those measures which in its collective wisdom, the United States concurring, has said are appropriate. If they believe the next step is a blockade, they have full authority under Article 42 to impose it, and we have full authority to implement it at sea legally in concert with the nations of the world.

MR. LEHRER: And I have full authority to say, gentlemen, we're through. We've run out of time. Thank you all three.

MR. MacNeil: And next, will a blockade of Iraq actually work? Today food and other materials were still being trucked from Jordan's point of Aqaba through Amman to Baghdad. Otherwise, there appeared to be a virtual ban on trade with Iraq as ordered by the United Security Council. With us is Iraq's ambassador to the United Nations, Abdul Amir Al-Anbari. Mr. Ambassador, welcome.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Thank you very much.

MR. MacNeil: How does your government react to the U.S. enforcing this interdiction, quarantine, blockade?

ABDUL AMIR AL-ANBARI, U.N. Ambassador, Iraq: Well, may I first express my admiration and happiness to see an American admiral having such a good command of international law. He's far better than many other lawyers. As a matter of fact, I feel and my country feel that the United States is violating the international law, violating the U.N. Charter and violating the resolution of the Security Council, and the reasons were simple. The resolution of the Security Council speaks of economic sanctions and economic sanction requires some time for Secretary General to report about the effectiveness, in light of which, in light of the Secretary General report, the Security Council may decide on a blockade, a blockade by its own forces, not by an individual member country. As far as now, of course, even the Secretary General has not represented any report and the vast majority of the members of the Security Council utterly disagree with the United States. It's the only voice in the Security Council which believes that it's entitled to use force or to blockade Iraqi ports. Now for the United States to plead that it's selfdefense, here again, question of self-defense either for the country that's being aggressed, or collectively that means for the Security Council and the United States is acting on its own. If Kuwait or any other member country can provide this X or Y or Z, we might end in World War III in the name of self-defense or in the name of --

MR. MacNeil: I understand your point. You believe the United States is acting illegally at the moment. What do you say to Prince Bandar, the Saudi ambassador who appeared before you on this program, that the military threat as it's perceived from Saudi Arabia continues to grow?

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Well, you know --

MR. MacNeil: He said that the number of troops in Kuwait, Iraqi troops is increasing, the military force is increasing, and there is no sign that your government has changed its mind, he said.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Well, I have again respect for my colleague Prince Bandar. He is my colleague and good friend, but one important development that has taken place today is a letter by our president which we just transmitted to Security Council at suppressing Iraq's readiness to abide by any uniformed rules and procedures by the Security Council organizing withdrawal of all forces in occupied territories in the Middle East, and that would include the West Bank and Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq as well as Kuwait. As far as the future of Kuwait, our president again in his proposal said that it is for the Kuwaiti people to decide, thereby opening the door for all sorts of compromises. As far as up to yesterday, the situation was almost zero sum gain, either total loss or total winning, but now I believe it's possible to have some condition between all parties concerned, and anyone, if I may, anyone really acting in good faith, trying to stabilize the situation, trying to establish peace, rather than achieve some acts of aggression or some gain, should welcome this opportunity and should try to make the best of it.

MR. MacNeil: Prince Bandar also said that everything that Saddam Hussein, your president, has promised, he has done the contrary. He gave a list of things.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Well, I haven't listened to the list of things which --

MR. MacNeil: That he would not invade Kuwait, that he would not annex territory, he had no territorial ambitions, that he would not move troops toward the Saudi border.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: You see, events in the region of say the last two weeks have been moving so fast that really you have to view every promise, every undertaking, every meeting in its context. When our president made a promise, and he did make a promise to keep that, that Iraq would not use force or would not attack Kuwait, that was prior to the scheduled meeting in Jordan between Mr. Azat Aduli, the vice chairman of the council, and his counterpart in Kuwait. When that meeting proved to be a total failure because the other side didn't take it seriously, of course the promise which our president extended was over.

MR. MacNeil: Okay. Can I in the time remaining ask you this, the blockade, whatever you call it, appears to be going forward. Saudi Arabia enforced part of it today by shutting a pipeline and refusing to load a ship. How long can Iraq hold out against this apparent international unanimity for food supplies, for failure to export its oil? How long can you stand up to this and survive?

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Well, I believe the United States, as well as any power that is cooperating with the United States would find itself fighting the rest of the world, because already actually you have two countries, Srilanka and Bulgaria, seeking solutions under Article 50 of the charter, saying that our circumstances does not allow us to participate in any boycott, and this is why so many third world countries, so many East European countries, who need and depend and rely on Iraqi oil and Iraqi product was going to be eventually seeking really to go out of the blockade and violating their authority, the United States policies.

MR. MacNeil: So you think you will have lots of allies or friends who will need your oil enough that they won't go along with the blockade and that they will, in effect, continue to trade with you?

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Surely. And everyone else is going to be on our side, because the price of oil is going to jump gradually, God knows to what. Mr. Mizrahi will be here and later he might illuminate the point, to 40 or 50 or 60, where the United States might be able to afford that, Japan might be able to afford that, but how about countries in Asia and Africa and Europe?

MR. MacNeil: Well, even if the price of oil goes up so much, how will Iraq get oil out if the pipelines are closed and the American and other navies are stopping ships exporting oil through the Persian Gulf?

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Well, we always, we have always managed to find a solution to our difficult situation, but any rate, we don't have to export oil for a period of time, but eventually I believe the whole world will pressure the United States, the Security Council to resent its resolutions.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Ambassador, we'll come back to you. We get three more views now of how deeply the embargo will the embargo will pinch Iraq and its economy and affect the Saddam government. John Abinader is president of the National U.S.-Arab Chamber of Commerce and travels frequently to the Middle East on U.S. trade matters. David Mizrahi is editor and publisher of the Mideast Report, a bi-monthly newsletter of Mideast affairs. Andy Bellingham is the vice president of World Perspectives, an agricultural consulting firm which publishes a daily newspaper on world agriculture markets. Mr. Bellingham also worked as a merchandiser for two major grain exporters and was previously an international commodities analyst in the Office of Economic Affairs at the Central Intelligence Agency. Mr. Mizrahi, will the blockade work? Will it achieve what the U.N. has demanded and what Pres. Bush wants Saddam Hussein to do?

DAVID MIZRAHI, Middle East Analyst: It depends on the blockade, itself, on the force of the blockade. I think that the determination of the United States, now we have to see how the other countries are going to react. You know, France has decided not to send a ship, not to enforce a blockade. I think by and large a blockade could work, yes.

MR. MacNeil: Iraqi's ambassador says it won't work because so many countries, he mentioned Bulgaria and Srilanka, and many others, third world countries, would need the oil so badly that the pressure would force the price up so much that the United States would not be able to enforce this.

MR. MIZRAHI: As you all indicated its the outlet, how this oil is going to be sold. Let's face it, Iraq now can export oil through three to four outlets, two pipelines across Turkey, one pipeline across Saudi Arabia and somewhat through the Gulf. Now you said today that Saudi Arabia has blocked the pipeline. Turkey has blocked the pipeline. The American Navy plus other multinational forces are blocking the force on the ports on Ira. So the question is how this oil is going to be sold.

MR. MacNeil: Suppose this oil can't get out. How long could Iraq go without oil revenues?

MR. MIZRAHI: I'm afraid Iraq, as they say, has between 70 and 80 billion in external debt. Iraq, if it can sell its oil, Iraq will be short of foreign exchange, in my opinion. Consequently, Iraq will be economically strangled, and that's why this operation should be made quickly, because otherwise, if things take their time, then there will be some cheating as usual.

MR. MacNeil: Let's turn to food. Mr. Bellingham, the White House said today that food would be included in the American boycott, embargo, blockade. How dependent is Iraq on imported food?

ANDY BELLINGHAM, Agriculture Analyst: Iraq is very dependent upon imports of food grains. Currently, about 85 to 90 percent of wheat and rice is imported and stocks are very low. Stocks would probably carry them for two to three months. I think the accepted level is about three months of supplies. Right now, all the major suppliers of either wheat or rice are cooperating under the sanctions. It's not only a question of where would Iraq buy, but also how would Iraq get it to, delivered to ports. As has been mentioned earlier in the program, there is a vessel off loading at Aqaba right now.

MR. MacNeil: We just had some film of that.

MR. BELLINGHAM: Right. Now that would be one over land route and if vessel owners would charter vessels to make that sort of voyage, which I think is questionable, certainly a good amount could be moved across there, but as far as bulk deliveries into the Persian Gulf ports, it does not look like there is going to be anything nearby. Now the question becomes, how long might that last.

MR. MacNeil: We'll come back to that. Mr. Abinader, in oil, food, and general cut-off of trade, how quickly will Iraq feel the pinch do you think?

JOHN ABINADER, U.S.-Arab Chamber of Commerce: They feel the pinch already, I think, as we've already understood here. The blockade has two sides to it, one is goods coming out, one is goods going in. We've already stopped the ability of them to make their exports of oil, so therefore, we now have immediately impacted on their foreign credit. As David has pointed, already, for example, the Foreign Credit Insurers Association has refused to extend coverage on any exports from the United States into the region, so we're already looking at some real liabilities and risks on behalf of any exporters into the region. So it's already hurting them in terms of being able to find exceptions to the rule. But as has been pointed out, it doesn't matter where you buy it, the key is how you get it in. The only hole in the overall fabric right now is the long, very hard to police Jordanian Saudi border with Iraq.

MR. MacNeil: And it is true that, Mr. Ambassador, Jordan has promised to observe the embargo ordered by the U.N. Security Council, is it?

ABDUL AMIR AL-ANBARI, U.N. Ambassador, Iraq: Well, you see, at first, here again how the United States will disregard any normal flow, any normal civilized behavior, because food and medicine were significantly mentioned in the resolution that they are not covered by the embargo or boycott, even so, the boycott is still premature. But the United States is on its own will, own discretion is saying that. I believe many people apparently here in this country don't know the Iraqis. For eight years, we really suffered quite a lot, but we did manage to mobilize our forces, to find always a means not only to meet our requirement, but also to defend ourselves successfully.

MR. MacNeil: But you were also at the time getting substantial aid from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia during the war with Iran.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Yes. We don't need it now. I think we don't need many things which we used to need during the war, because after all, we are seeking a peaceful solution to the problem. It's basically a question of medicine and food, and I believe both medicine and food can be not sufficient, but any way we can meet our requirement.

MR. MacNeil: You can meet your requirement. What is your impression of the ambassador's confidence that they can survive?

MR. MIZRAHI: Well, if they can survive, they have to survive with foreign exchange. You know, during the war, the war with Iran, the food was, the financing was coming from Saudi Arabia and the oil rich countries, including Kuwait.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: That's not true. It's only up to 1982.

MR. MIZRAHI: More than that in my information anyway. And the second thing is that today goods were coming from Turkey, from other borders, from Jordan. Now we're seeing one outlet that's supplying food and merchandise to Iraq and that's Jordan as of today. Now Turkey has entered the blockade. Consequently, I fail to see geographically who is the country, the poorest country, that's going to let goods and merchandise come across into Iraq.

MR. MacNeil: Which country is it?

AMB. AL-ANBARI: The first country to suffer by the way from our neighbors is Turkey because Turkey not also receives handsome royalties, about $300 million a year, but also meets all its oil requirement without paying a dollar. They sell us in exchange for some agricultural products.

MR. MacNeil: But they have decided to observe the embargo and shut off the pipelines.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: But them, it depends how long, it's not only we are going to suffer, but I tell you so many other nations are going to suffer and once it's proved ineffective, I believe the world will find a solution to --

MR. MacNeil: Is it not also likely that it will not be proved ineffective that the pressure on your people, your 17 million people for food and other supplies, for spare parts for your aircraft and other general trade items, will be so severe that it will put some pressure on Saddam Hussein to change his mind.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: You know for how many years the whole world boycotted Japan in World War II and they had to surrender only America used for the first time two nuclear bombs on it, so the Iraqis actually would prove to be as capable as others. We can cultivate our lands. We can find ways and means to meet all our requirement. Certainly we have to go through a period of hostility, a period of hardship, but never surrender or to accept humiliation.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Bellingham, how do you think of Iraq's capacity to cultivate its lands and feed itself?

MR. BELLINGHAM: Well, you're talking about how much more could they plant for next spring's harvests, and I would suggest that that's probably relatively limited. They are dependent upon imports and that's not going to change that much. And they don't have the stocks. But again, they probably have two to three months supply, so we will have to wait and see if they can bring enough through that overland route through Jordan or not. I don't think they'll have vessels coming in.

MR. MacNeil: What's your reaction to that?

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Well, perhaps he is specialist in agricultural products, commodities, he might know better, but I think even without three month stocks, we don't need to live luxuriously. All what we need is to meet our very basic needs. After all, we are being subject of aggression by the mightiest, by the greatest country in theworld, and it's as simple as that, and there is no other alternative for us. I remember during the war I used to say that Khomeini was one of the factors in our victory.

MR. MacNeil: That's your war against Iran.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Yes. Because -- Iran's war against Iraq -- it doesn't matter -- because he put such condition that he left no option to the Iraqis but to fight to the last soul. And if America does the same, we will do the same and survive.

MR. MacNeil: But as Prince Bandar pointed out of Saudi Arabia, all this is happening, it isn't happening because the United States put troops in Saudi Arabia or ships in the Persian Gulf, but it is happening because Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Well, let's go back to last March. Actually from March until now there has been such a campaign of this information and Britain and America and Europe against Iraq since the sentencing of the Iranian British spy. Also the fabrication has been to create an atmosphere for aggression and we still expect an act of aggression either by United States and Israel as happened against Egypt in 1956, with other partners, or by United States alone or by Israel alone.

MR. MacNeil: So are you saying go ahead and try the blockade, it won't work, that either the need of other countries for trade with Iraq will cause them to break it, or you can survive on your own?

AMB. AL-ANBARI: We resent this resolution because we believe it far exceeds the charter of the Security Council. The United States has really been acting in violation of the resolution, in violation of international law, and eventually we will find the solution.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Mizrahi, what do you think?

MR. MIZRAHI: Well, I think first of all and fortunately I think, I'm sorry to say, I think the blockade would work, eventually it would work. You need $70 billion for reconstruction.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: We don't need as much as we used to.

MR. MIZRAHI: Okay. But you need now 7 billion immediately for spare parts, in your gas, in your industry, oil industry, for your industry, for your plants, you need that immediately. You have a foreign exchange external debt of 70 billion. You are not selling your oil. You have to face it. You have a problem.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: That term of course, by the very term of the blockade, the resolution, we are exempt from because all of our assets have been frozen legally or illegally by the United States authorities.

MR. MIZRAHI: You don't have too many assets in this country.

AMB. AL-ANBARI: Everywhere. Here as well as in Europe.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Ambassador, thank you for joining us, Mr. Mizrahi, Mr. Abindader and Mr. Bellingham, thank you all. FINALLY - TO THE FRONT

MR. LEHRER: Finally tonight the weekend at Ft. Bragg, North Carolina. Elizabeth Brackett reports on what it was like for those who were left behind to wait and wonder.

MS. BRACKETT: For almost a week, the big transport planes had been rolling down the runway at Pope Air Force Base in North Carolina. A steady stream of soldiers dressed in desert combat fatigues slowly filled the C5-A's. Most were from nearby Ft. Bragg, home of the 82nd Airborne Division. As in Grenada and Panama, the 82nd was one of the first units called, and once again, many soldiers left stunned family members at home.

SUZY RICK: I did not think he was going to be part of this. He went to Panama and he just said, bye, I'll see you later. I said, sure, okay, just don't wake me up when you come back in like 11 o'clock, you know, then I kept waking up about every hour and he wasn't home, and it was about 3 or 4 o'clock in the morning I called and there wasn't no answer in his unit, so it was the next morning I found out he was involved in this.

MS. BRACKETT: Suzy Rick was still reeling from her husband's sudden absence. At age 23 with a new baby and a five year old, she wasn't quite sure how she would cope. Her husband, Steve, an infantryman with the 82nd, had been gone before, but this time it seemed tougher. Part of it she said was the lack of information.

SUZY RICK: I can understand that they might not be able to tell certain things because it could jeopardize the operation or their lives or whatever, but at least give us some support, you know, try and fill us in on what they can. They could have told me when my husband went down there. On the TV they said troops had already arrived, so why not call me and tell me that my husband was one of them.

MS. BRACKETT: Anna Dennull was also trying to cope with suddenly being left alone with two children. Her husband, Daniel, a sergeant and mechanic working on Apache Helicopters for the 82nd, has been in the army 10 years. Still, it was hard for their 7 year old to understand. Where is he now?

RICK DENNULL: He went someplace, to a war.

MS. BRACKETT: Went to a war? [Little Boy Nodding] What's he going to do there, do you know?

RICK DENNULL: He's going to kill people, maybe bad guys, I think.

MS. BRACKETT: Do you know where he is?

RICK DENNULL: [Shaking head no].

MS. BRACKETT: Did you get to tell him good-bye?

RICK DENNULL: Not yet. He had to leave real soon. We were too late.

MS. BRACKETT: Anna Dennull thought about taking her two children and going home to her parents as many military wives had already done, but she decided to stay, keep her job at the local grocery store and send her son back to his neighborhood school. She also wants to be there for her husband's return.

ANNA DENNULL: He had his brother die in Vietnam, so he came in and he told me that, you know, this is what he wanted to do, he wanted to fight for his country, and after being here, it seems like every time he goes, it's worse than the time before.

MS. BRACKETT: Mary Sandle had a different problem, but the same need for information. Her husband, Dwayne, a staff sergeant, has not yet been sent to the Middle East. Instead, he has been in what the army calls "lock up". He left for the base at 5 AM on Tuesday morning and by Saturday he still had not come home. In a brief conversation, he told her he could be shipped out at any moment. Now every transport plane caught her eye, and by the end of the week, the uncertainty had left her shaken.

MARY SANDLE: I guess what they're doing, they don't want to give out too much information because they don't want to let everybody know what's going on, but I think that if they do have information they could give, they should give it to the wives, because this is tough.

MS. BRACKETT: The army says it can't give families the information they would like because it could compromise security. Once soldiers are briefed on their mission, they can no longer talk to those at home. Here at Ft. Bragg, they have tried to help families by setting up emergency family assistance centers, but the chief of those centers acknowledges they can't give the families the information they most want.

MILT WOFFORD, Fort Bragg, Family Support Division: We can't really tell them a lot, other than to watch the news, you know, and see what's on the news, because the operation still is under wraps for security reasons and most military families understand that.

MS. BRACKETT: Mary Sandle did find comfort and support from her church. Suzy Rick too came to the service Sunday morning at the Liberty Baptist Church and they heard prayers not only for their men but for themselves.

MINISTER: God, we do pray that you would sustain those families and the dependents that are so, their lives are out of kilter due to this situation, we pray that You would be very real in each light.

MS. BRACKETT: Mary Sandle's husband had been allowed home for a few hours Saturday night, but he was again back at the base and she still did not know when or if he would be leaving. So after church, it was again back to the TV to try and pick up information. She heard the first definitive news about a Naval blockade, but it was the earlier reports of Saudis shooting at Iraqi planes that worried her.

MARY SANDLE: For a minute, you know, I just thought that maybe this was the start of it all, but there hasn't been much more that I've heard on the news about it. I don't know if that will cause him to have to leave. He hasn't said anything. I haven't heard from him today, so hopefully he'll still be coming home tonight, I hope.

MS. BRACKETT: Anna Dunnull stayed glued to the set, but much of what she saw only worried her more. She and almost all the spouses remained especially nervous about the possible use of chemical weapons by Arab.

ANNA DUNNULL: He told me that they had the chemical weapons and that, you know, they do use 'em, and the guy that they're dealin' with, you know, has no concern about anyone, you know. He said that, you know, he could wipe out some of his own men and not think about it, you know.

MS. BRACKETT: Was your husband scared?

ANNA DUNNULL: Yeah. We cried together before he left.

MS. BRACKETT: While Suzy Rick is frightened about if and when her husband will come home, she does support the President's decision to send him.

SUZY RICK: I mean, I believe in the situation. I know that it's all necessary, you know, not saying that I want my husband down there but I know somebody's got to do it and I know that it's selfish of me to say that I wish it wasn't my husband.

MS. BRACKETT: All the families share the waiting, the uncertainty, and the lonely days ahead. They say Saudi Arabia feels far away from North Carolina, a lot farther than Grenada or Panama, and they know the days before the first letters arrive are going to be tough. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. MacNeil: In other news, oil prices continued their climb today. Benchmark North Sea Crude rose in London by more than $1/2 to just over $26 a barrel. In Houston, salvage crews worked to contain the third major oil spill in the Houston ship canal this summer. Yesterday a barge buckled, leaking 21,000 gallons of heavy fuel oil. This morning, crews transferred the remaining 600,000 gallons on the barge to another vessel. Another Lebanon hostage was released today. Ilio Iriquez, a Swiss Red Cross worker, was held for 10 months. He was released to Syrian officials. There was a report of a border clash between India and Pakistan. Pakistan said its forces repelled an attack by Indian troops in the disputed region of Kashmir. India denied any attack.

MR. LEHRER: And again to recap today's developments in the Middle East crisis, the United States broadened its Naval blockade of Iraq to include food shipments, Britain and Australia agreed to help enforce the embargo, but France declined. Saudi Arabia turned away an Iraqi oil tanker from one of its ports. It also closed a key Iraqi oil pipeline that crosses its territory. On the Newshour tonight, Iraq's ambassador to the United Nations said his country would be able to withstand the embargo indefinitely. Good night, Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Good night, Jim. We'll be back tomorrow night with continued coverage of the Gulf crisis and the economic fallout for the United States. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.