The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

Intro

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. The leading headlines today had mostly to do with the Soviet Union. High-level talks on the Middle East next week between the U.S. and the Soviets were announced. The U.S. officially criticized the Soviets' human rights policies. And there was a new statement issued in the name of Soviet leader Konstantin Chernenko, adding more mystery to the question of his health. Robin?

ROBERT MacNEIL: These are the contents of tonight's NewsHour. After the news summary, three focus sections. We conclude our newsmaker interview with Cuba President Fidel Castro and have an official U.S. response from Deputy Secretary of State Kenneth Dam. Judy Woodruff examines new medical evidence about the dangers of being obese. And Kwame Holman tells the story of an Iowa farmer whose debts drove him to suicide. News Summary

LEHRER: The United States and the Soviet Union will talk about the Middle East next week. The two-day session will begin Tuesday in Vienna; the U.S. delegation will be led by Richard Murphy, assistant secretary of state for Near East affairs. President Reagan was the first to acknowledge the meeting. As he was leaving the White House this morning for a California vacation, he told reporters what he hoped it would accomplish.

Pres. RONALD REAGAN: Well, there are a number of things that I think are of interest to both countries, and I think we'll -- there are some reasons to believe that we can straighten out some things, trade matters.

LEHRER: Later, State Department spokesman Bernard Kalb explained the Vienna gathering in more detail.

BERNARD KALB, State Department spokesman: The objectives of such policy level consultations are to help avoid miscalculation and to reduce the potential risk of U.S.-Soviet confrontation. We expect a variety of subjects will be raised in these talks, including Afghanistan, the Iran-Iraq war, southern Lebanon and Arab-Israeli issues. These talks should not be seen as negotiations. They are merely an exchange of views. They do not represent any change in the U.S. position regarding issues affecting the region, nor do we expect them to result in changes in Soviet positions.

LEHRER: And, speaking of the Middle East, King Faud of Saudi Arabia was still in Washington today. His major business was a meeting with Defense Secretary Weinberger. Robin?

MacNEIL: Today marked the first year in office of Soviet President Konstantin Chernenko, but the mystery of his health remained unsolved. The 73-year-old leader hasn't been seen in public for seven weeks. Soviet officials admit he is ill, but say he is still in charge of the government. A statement from Chernenko was issued last night to a group of Argentine political and intellectual leaders about the arms race.

The Soviet news agency Tass said today that President Reagan's latest statement about his strategic defense initiative meant that he wanted to delay serious disarmament talks. The President told The New York Times that even if the Soviets pledge deep cuts in offensive weapons he would still proceed with research on the defensive system. Tass repeated the Soviet position that space weapons had to be considered together with ground-based nuclear arms.

LEHRER: The State Department today issued its annual report on the state of human rights around the world, and it contained good news from the West, bad from the East. Assistant Secretary of State Elliott Abrams said there had been real progress in the Western Hemisphere, in Latin America and the Caribbean, but the most serious violations continue to be found in Soviet bloc countries and in the Soviet Union itself.

ELLIOTT ABRAMS, Assistant Secretary of State: As the report notes, there is a further decline in 1984, a general tightening up. There is a lot in the report, particularly about freedom of religion, and there has been a further crackdown on Catholics, Pentacostalists, Baptists, Jews, in the Baltic states and in the Soviet Union proper. It's been a bad year for human rights in the Soviet Union, starting, obviously, from a terrible base. Nevertheless it has been a year of crackdown. Worldwide I think I would say that the only significant overall trend is the trend toward improvement in the Western Hemisphere. In the last five years I think we are now up to nine countries have gone from dictatorship, military dictatorship to democracy. Zero countries have gone from democracy to dictatorship. It's a very impressive trend.

LEHRER: In South Korea today dissident leader Kim Dae Jung said his party's second place finish in parliamentary elections was a great victory for democratic forces. His party won 68 seats to the 148 won by the party of President Chun Doo Hwan. While Chun's party remains very much in power, observers say the Kim group's showing was much stronger than expected.

MacNEIL: Cuban President Fidel Castro predicts there will be political explosions in large Latin American nations like Brazil, Argentina or Chile if a solution is not found to their large debts. Castro made this statement in the latest segment of an extended interview with this program. He said it would be necessary to give the debtor nations a grace period of up to 20 years just on the interest on their debts.

Pres. FIDEL CASTRO [through interpreter]: It is the most critical and serious situation that history that ever learned of, the history of this hemisphere. I firmly believe this. And if a solution is not found to the problem of debt, the Latin American societies will explode because there is a situation of despair among the workers, among the middle strata, and even in the oligarchy.

MacNEIL: In our first focus section after this news summary, we have an amplified version of Castro's remarks and the U.S. official response.

LEHRER: There were some economic developments today. The government reported retail sales up 0.7 in January, which was interpreted as being not too bad considering the cold weather throughout much of the country last month. On Wall Street the Dow Jones average of stock prices soared above the 1300 mark for the first time ever before closing at 1297.92. The new record was set in a day of heavy trading. Overseas the value of the dollar continued to climb, setting another round of its own records against the Canadian dollar, as well as the French franc and the German mark. President Reagan told reporters the problem is not that the U.S. dollar is too strong; it's that foreign currencies are too weak.

MacNEIL: The new head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Lee Thomas, told his agency today that the heat is still on for enforcement of anti-pollution laws. In his first public speech since taking over from William Ruckelshaus, Thomas said his agency intends to target certain industrial and business activities that, he said, "We believe require aggressive and pro-active investigation." He didn't say which. He also said he expected increasing controversy in forcing municipalities to comply with water pollution laws by the legal deadline, July, 1988.

LEHRER: And, finally, in Poland today the Associated Press reported police raided a meeting attended by leaders of the outlawed Solidarity trade union. Lech Walesa was at the Gdansk meeting. He returned home after the police raid. Seven other Solidarity officials representing different Polish cities were detained by the authorities. Walesa and other union leaders have called for a 15-minute work stoppage at the end of the month to protest government food price increases. Conversation with Castro: Part III

MacNEIL: For our lead focus section tonight we return to our interview with Cuban President Fidel Castro, then we have an official State Department response. Our four-hour conversation with Castro in Havana last weekend touched on many subjects. In our Monday program we covered relations with the U.S., last night human rights in Cuba. Castro kept saying, "Ask me anything," and one of the few questions he refused to answer directly concerned El Salvador. I asked him specifically what aid Cuba was giving to the guerrilla groups in El Salvador.

Pres. CASTRO [through interpreter]: I said that I do not want to make any declarations or any commitments about that. I'm not saying yes, I'm not saying no. In practice, in reality it is almost impossible, almost impossible to send -- for military supplies to reach the revolutionaries in El Salvador. That's what I said. Because it is practically impossible to have military supplies reach them. The revolutionaries in El Salvador had the capabilities to resist indefinitely, even if they would not receive any military supplies, even though they would not receive any supplies, not even a single bullet. They are in a position to resist indefinitely. They are also in a position to receive supplies; that is, the way we did in our struggle -- with the weapons that belonged to the army of El Salvador. And I believe, I am absolutely convinced about the fact that the revolutionaries in El Salvador can indefinitely resist without receiving any type of supplies, a supply of weapons from abroad. And that that is not the essential issue.

MacNEIL: I also asked the Cuban leader, looking at the hemisphere as a whole, which countries he considered ripe for revolution right now.

Pres. CASTRO [through interpreter]: I would say that, from the point of view of social conditions and objective conditions, not only Central America, but actually and more important, South America. In that area a situation has been created, from the objective point of view, that is a pre-revolutionary situation. I am absolutely convinced of that. I am not wanting to say that this hemisphere will unavoidably explode, but I am absolutely convinced of the fact that the problems are very serious, that the social problems have tripled, that the population have doubled, and that they face situations in which you find no way out. During Kennedy, when Kennedy put forth the Alliance for Progress, he thought, he worried already to try to avoid revolutionary situations. He believed that by investing $20 billion, in a certain number of years and with certain social reforms the problems of Latin America could be solved. Twenty-four years have elapsed since then. The population has doubled, I repeat. The social problems have tripled. The debt is 360 billion. And only in interest they must pay $40 billion per year -- double that of what Kennedy thought was going to solve the problem in a certain number of years. To this we must add the flight of capital, the repatriation of profits and other problems. The prices are depressed and, in my opinion, it is most critical and serious situation that history has ever learned of -- the history of this hemisphere. I rmly believe this. And if a solution is not found to the problem of the debt, I am convinced that the Latin American societies will explode because there is a situation of despair among the workers, among the middle strata and even in the oligarchy. But in this case the problem is general, it's a general problem. And it may explode not in one country but it may explode in many countries. I believe that the debt -- that they cannot pay for the debt. It is not that they don't want to pay it. No, they can't pay for it. But I'm not only referring to the debt. The interests, the $40 billion in interests, they cannot pay for it. Even if they wanted to, they cannot pay for it. And the effort or imposition to force them to pay for it will actually bring about a social convulsion, a revolutionary explosion. I even believe that it will be necessary, as at least to have a 10 to 20 years of grace that would include interests.

MacNEIL: Let me understand you. You're saying that to prevent an explosion in Latin America that the international banking community needs to give them 20 years of grace on interest? Is that what you mean?

Pres. CASTRO [through interpreter]: Right. I am absolutely convinced that if under the present circumstances they are obliged to pay not the debt, because they could postpone the debt for 10, 15 years and it could be in echelons up to 25 years, the interests on the debt, they cannot pay for them. And if they continue demanding on the payment of these interests, an explosion will take place. As long as it's a question of social changes in small countries, in Grenada, in Central America, in Cuba, mention can still be made of the madness of solving them through invasion. If one day a change takes place in South America -- in Brazil, in Peru, in Chile -- I forgot to mention it, which is really one of the countries of the southern column, where, in my opinion, there is a pre-revolutionary situation. The United States knows now, at least they understand that, that it's if the situation of Chile continues, in the not-too-distant future they might face a Nicaragua or even something worse than Nicaragua in the southern column. And that is the situation that we see. How will they solve it? Will they send a battalion of the 82nd Airborne and send it by air? Anybody understands that that cannot be. And if those risks exist I believe it will be convenient for the United States to change its conceptions on this hemisphere and stop being the sworn enemy of social changes and learn to coexist with them. That's my reasoning. A U.S. Response

LEHRER: Now to an American response to and comments on what Fidel Castro had to say in our extensive interview. They will come from the number-two man at the State Department, the deputy secretary of state, Kenneth Dam. Mr. Secretary, welcome. Let's begin with what he said tonight and work backward. First of all, do you agree with his assessment that South America is in a pre-revolutionary situation and the whole -- all of Latin America is about to explode?

KENNETH DAM: I don't agree with that. I do agree that there is a debt problem. But, frankly, I think that a lot of progress has been made on that. I think the program of the United States and of the International Monetary Fund and other creditor countries has provided an approach which has relieved the pressure there, but there remains a serious economic problem. We really need more growth in Latin America in order to provide jobs for the populations of those countries.

LEHRER: What about his suggestion of a 20-year grace on the debts, the international debts to these Latin American countries?

Sec. DAM: One of the things that has been done for those countries that have been willing to help themselves by getting their own house in order has been negotiation on multi-year debt rescheduling; that is, rescheduling of the principal of the debt. I think that if there were to be a moratorium on interest that would simply result in the countries not being able to borrow any more, and frankly they need more capital in order to expand. Now, most of that capital, it's true, is going to have to come from domestic savings in those countries, and that will require some economic reforms in many of the countries.

LEHRER: What about his final point, that the United States has always positioned itself in opposition to social change, that we should get out in front and help social change? What's your response to that?

Sec. DAM: I don't really think that that's true. There have been a number of countries that have moved from authoritarianism to democracy in the last five years, as we saw earlier on your program. The United States has strongly supported that kind of change and supports that kind of change in Latin America today. We are on the side of democracy, development, human rights and the like.

LEHRER: The specific point on El Salvador. Do you think the Cubans are supplying direct military aid to the rebels in El Salvador?

Sec. DAM: I think there's not much question about the fact that the rebels in El Salvador are receiving a good deal of assistance. Some of it is of military equipment. A lot of it is command and control and the like, and I think there is no doubt at all that the Cubans are contributing greatly to the Nicaraguans' ability to do that. Now, I'm not prepared to say that the Cubans are shipping directly into El Salvador, but you notice that Mr. Castro did not deny that there was assistance going from Cuba to the guerrillas in El Salvador.

LEHRER: What about his point that the rebels could hold out forever, even without any more military aid?

Sec. DAM: Well, we have pointed out that they have received a great deal of equipment in the past. They have captured some. Undoubtedly they have an ability to withstand battles for a time without any additional assistance. But all of our intelligence indicates that there has been substantial flow in the past and it continues to this day.

LEHRER: In a general way in the piece that we ran the other night he told Robin -- Castro told Robin that it is impossible for Cuba to import revolution into any of these Latin American countries, and that it's all equally impossible for the United States to stop a revolution if in fact the situation on the ground is there. Generally do you agree with him?

Sec. DAM: I don't agree that he can't play a role in turning revolutions into authoritarian situations. It is certainly true that local conditions are very important -- economic conditions, social conditions and so forth. But even when there is a revolution there are several ways in which things could go. That was true at the beginning of the Sandinista revolution --

LEHRER: In Nicaragua.

Sec. DAM: Yes, in Nicaragua. And the United States government did support the Sandinistas, as you'll recall, at the beginning. But certainly Cuba used its influence and its equipment and so forth to turn that Sandinista revolution into one which did purport to, as well as actually doing it, export revolution into neighboring countries and made it into a more authoritarian regime. So I think he can -- at the very minimum, Cuba can have a tremendous impact on what happens in a situation of uncertainty.

LEHRER: Well, now, what Castro said was that all he's doing is helping Nicaragua defend itself from the anti-Sandinista guerrillas that the United States is arming. What is your comment on that?

Sec. DAM: Well, I think it's important to look at the historical record there. First of all, the Cubans were helping the Sandinistas even before they were in the government, and at the beginning of the Sandinista government the United States was helping the Sandinistas. In fact, we were the major donor for economic assistance and the like. But from the very beginning the Cubans were starting the military buildup there, cooperating with the Soviets and Eastern bloc countries, and while we were, at the end of the Carter administration, helping the Sandinistas on the economic side, the military buildup was going on. Now, there were no contras and the United States was supporting the Sandinistas. So I don't think the historical record supports at all what he's saying.

LEHRER: A direct charge he made is that the United States would never be interested in a peaceful solution to the Nicaragua situation, to negotiating a way out, until they were convinced a military way could not be used to get rid of the Sandinista government.

Sec. DAM: Well, I think that just turns our position on its head. What we have been trying to do is to find a peaceful solution. We have done that in a variety of ways. We've met with the Nicaraguans, we have supported the Contadora process. So it seems to me that's just the inverse of the truth.

LEHRER: He says he supports the Contadora process. Do you agree he supports it?

Sec. DAM: I haven't seen much evidence of that. As a matter of fact, insofar as he supports Nicaragua I think we're seeing the contrary, because the Nicaraguans have been taking a very hard-line position. They want to sign the first draft; they don't want to have any improvements. They don't want to have things on verification and the like. And through their actions with respect to the Costa Rican that sought asylum in Nicaragua it appears that maybe the Contadora process will be stalled. It's unclear exactly how that's going to work out. But I think that indicates the Nicaraguans' attitude toward the Contadora process.

LEHRER: So he is wrong when he says the U.S. purpose is to get rid of the Sandinista government?

Sec. DAM: That is not our purpose. We want to see a peaceful solution. We want to see reconciliation in Nicaragua between the various factions, the government and the opposition as, indeed, the Nicaraguan bishops have called for. We would like to see a regional solution.

LEHRER: Now, speaking of reconciliation, our first segment that we ran Monday night spent -- dealt almost extensively with reconciliation between the United States and Cuba. He says he's ready. Is the United States ready?

Sec. DAM: We are ready, but the question is, ready for what? We are prepared to talk to the Cubans. We have a way of doing that. He wants to talk to us, we're there. We have what we call an interest section in Havana. They have an interest section in Washington. These are diplomatic establishments, fully equipped for a diplomatic dialogue. So he doesn't need to talk to visitors to Cuba. He can talk to the U.S. government. He doesn't have to talk on the television -- which is, of course, his privilege. But he can talk directly to us. And, as a matter of fact, we have tried to talk. And I would say the second point to bear in mind is that the historical record is very bleak in this respect. The Ford administration tried it. The Carter administration tried it, and this administration has tried it. And in the Ford administration they tried and it ended when they moved into Angola. Same thing happened in the Carter administration when they moved Cuban troops into Ethiopia. And we have had several occasions in this administration where we have had high-level talks with the Cubans, one by Secretary Al Haig and another time involving Vernon Walters. But in every case, when the chips were down not only was there no substance there; there usually was a slap in the face, like the Mariel boat lift which ended the Carter administration's second try.

LEHRER: Is there any indication from your point of view that this particular initiative -- and it's clearly an initiative on his part -- is anything different than the prior ones?

Sec. DAM: We haven't seen anything. We will examine very closely what he has to say, and we will have to see. But we don't see any evidence in the historical record. It's not encouraging.

LEHRER: Well, specifically he said that if one of the United States' conditions for better relations is that he turn his back on Marxism and socialism, forget it, he isn't going to do that. Is that a condition?

Sec. DAM: We believe that if you interpret that as the following, that that is a condition; we don't believe that he can continue to be a conduit for supporting Marxist-Leninist movements in this hemisphere. We believe that that has to be --

LEHRER: You want him to stop that.

Sec. DAM: We want him to stop that. And we think that if his position is really -- his position is bona fide he will separate himself in some way from the Soviet foreign policy. In vote after vote, for years and years and years he has never deviated one inch from the Soviet position.

LEHRER: But he says, he told Robin, that the Soviet Union is his friend, the Soviet Union is his ally. Why should he turn his back on a friend and ally after 26 years?

Sec. DAM: We're not asking him to turn his back. We're just simply saying if he really is serious, then he has to have some kind of an independent foreign policy and he certainly has to give up on trying to produce other Cubas in this hemisphere.

LEHRER: What would he have to do to prove his independence from the Soviet Union to the U.S. satisfaction?

Sec. DAM: Well, I think he can start behaving differently, and particularly with regard to using this massive Soviet economic and military assistance to him as a way of financing the kinds of activities that have been going on in Central America, in Angola, in Ethiopia and other places where there are Soviet troops and Soviet military advisers.

LEHRER: He told Robin that he was willing to talk about the Angola situation. Is the United States willing to talk about that?

Sec. DAM: The situation is this. We're very actively involved there. It's a regional problem, to begin with, and one aspect of it does involve Namibia and its independence, and part and parcel of that is some solution to the problem of Soviet troops in Angola. And he has said that he's prepared to withdraw the Cuban troops, but of course only if the Angolan government asks him to, and he seems rather reluctant at that. But we are working very hard with theparties in that area to try to bring about a resolution of that situation.

LEHRER: Mr. Secretary, what is your own feeling about whether or not anything is really going to come of this, of this latest initiative of Castro's? Do you think that it's possible there could be some kind of lessening of the tension between the two countries?

Sec. DAM: I think that it's prudent for us to examine carefully what he has to say, particularly the things that he has to say to us diplomatically, where it isn't just a big public blitz. We have been able to, on small things, deal with the Cubans. Most recently we had the negotiation about the return of the Mariel boat lift people, the so-called "excludables," and they will be going back to Cuba and we will be permitting political prisoners and other immigrants into the United States, according to the agreement. That's a small agreement. But to go beyond that into large subjects having to do with the general political position --

LEHRER: Lifting the trade boycott, diplomatic relations, etc. That's not in the cards anytime soon?

Sec. DAM: Not until there is some change in the behavior of Cuba.

LEHRER: Finally, let me ask you this. Fidel Castro has been in power for 26 years. Every administration going back to the very first one, the Eisenhower administration, has been essentially trying to get rid of him, one way or another. And yet he is still there. What is your own analysis of why he's been so successful, just in terms of having staying power 90 miles from here?

Sec. DAM: Well, first of all he has an authoritarian state. It's a little easier to stay in power if, whenever there's an opponent who speaks out, he's thrown in jail, or he can have massive suppression of the normal civil liberties. That's point one. Point two is he is, as we've seen, a personality, and no doubt that has helped, particularly in the early part of his career to stay there. And, thirdly, he's determined to stay. He more or less said on one of these segments that he was going to stay in power until he felt like leaving.

LEHRER: Okay, Mr. Secretary. Thank you. Robin?

MacNEIL: Mr. Secretary, turning to the announcement that the United States and the Soviet Union are going to meet in Vienna next Tuesday to talk about the Middle East, since the Reagan administration has consistently said it believes the Soviet Union has no role in a Middle East peace settlement, what are these Vienna talks for?

Sec. DAM: Well, first of all, we think it's very important to be talking to the Soviets generally. We want to talk to them not merely about arms control but also about regional problems and certainly there are problems in the Middle East. We want to talk to them about human rights, and we want to talk to them about some bilateral issues that we have with them. We've done this before, and this is another example of talking to them about a regional situation. Now, the Middle East is a fairly large place. I think our comments that you quote have not been limited to, but have been basically directed to the Soviet desire to have some kind of an international conference on the Arab-Israeli question. We will, of course, talk about Arab-Israeli issues with the Soviets, but I think the main focus will be on some of the other issues, such as Afghanistan, the Iran-Iraq war, Lebanon and the like. So that these are more general discussions, and they're in no way negotiations. They are for the exchange of information and views.

MacNEIL: Could it be that in exchange for some favorable Soviet behavior -- behavior Washington saw as desirable -- that a role might be found for the Soviet Union in wider talks on settling the Arab-Israeli dispute? Is that a possibility?

Sec. DAM: Well, certainly not in these talks. These are simply two days of talks designed to share perceptions and views and to make sure there are no miscalculations. I think it's important for the Soviets to know what our intentions are.

MacNEIL: Miscalculations about what?

Sec. DAM: Well, say, with regard to the Persian Gulf. The Soviets have repeatedly suggested that, well, we have some desire to expand militarily in the Persian Gulf, and I think it's important for them to understand our view of that situation. And we will be speaking to them about that. I think that's less, perhaps, of a problem right now than it was a few months ago, but you remember there was a lot of tension over the Gulf last summer and early fall. Over the long run we frankly still don't see any role for the Soviet Union. We don't see that they have demonstrated an ability to be a constructive force for peace in the Middle East.

MacNEIL: I mean, they're a very large patron of Syria, for example.

Sec. DAM: Yes, and I think it's important for us to discuss that question. But when it gets right down to getting to the heart of the matter, which is the necessity in the case of the Arab-Israeli situation, for direct discussions between the Arabs and the Israelis and perhaps encouraging, say, Hussein to enter the peace process, I don't see that the Soviets have demonstrated any intention of helping nor any capacity to help.

MacNEIL: But if they did demonstrate it there might be a reconsideration?

Sec. DAM: Well, anything is possible, but I can simply tell you the situation as it looks to us today.

MacNEIL: I see. Well, Mr. Secretary, thank you. Jim?

LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight, a medical look at the problems of being too fat, and a report from Kwame Holman on the growing concern about farmers committing suicide. Big Hazard to Health

LEHRER: Our next focus segment is on obesity and a meeting this week on what can be done about it. Judy Woodruff has more. Judy?

JUDY WOODRUFF: Jim, it comes as no surprise that there are a number of medical problems faced by those who are drastically overweight. But now medical researchers say even a modest weight problem can set the stage for potentially serious illnesses. That was one of the conclusions reached at a national conference on obesity that ended today at the National Institutes of Health. For more on this we turn to Dr. Jules Hirsch, chairman of the NIH conference. He is a professor at Rockefeller University in New York City, where he heads the Lab of Human Behavior and Metabolism. Dr. Hirsch, you know, we all have heard forever, I guess, that it's not good to be overweight. What is different about what your group has concluded?

Dr. HIRSCH: We tried to pinpoint just how bad it is to be overweight at different levels and, rather to the surprise of some but perhaps not to the surprise of too many, as little as 20% overweight seems to create very serious hazards.

WOODRUFF: Well, at what point, then, does it become concern? I mean, should people be watching their weight that closely?

Dr. HIRSCH: Well, we think so, yes. The interesting thing about this that even a small amount of obesity or a small amount of increase in body fat carries some hazards, but at the 20% level we're rather convinced that the hazards are severe enough to really take action.

WOODRUFF: What are the dangers? What are the concerns?

Dr. HIRSCH: Well, we looked at three things in particular -- diabetes and high blood pressure, hypertension, and elevations in blood fats, cholesterol and triglycerides. These are particularly important, of course, because these are three major risk factors for heart disease. But there are even other things that only 20% overweight can do to one.

WOODRUFF: Such as?

Dr. HIRSCH: Such as more arthritis, more gall bladder disease, more gout and possibly even more cancers, which may come as somewhat of a surprise.

WOODRUFF: Well, how does somebody know -- I mean, how do you expect people to know that they're precisely 20 overweight or whatever? I mean, how closely can you measure this?

Dr. HIRSCH: One of the real purposes of the conference along with pointing out the hazards of obesity was to examine the ways of doing just that, and we looked at the height-weight tabls, for example, and concluded that these were quite good for just that purpose -- the Metropolitan Life Insurance tables of some years ago -- and comparing one's weight to the norms or averages that are set up by these tables.

WOODRUFF: How does somebody get access? Is that readily available?

Dr. HIRSCH: These tables are very readily available, indeed, and physicians should make even more use of it than they have, we feel.

WOODRUFF: So, in other words, one should be expected to monitor one's own weight gain and so forth.

Dr. HIRSCH: Certainly so, and we think that physicians should make this a regular part of one's examination and look to it as a risk factor.

WOODRUFF: How many people are we taking about in this risk category?

Dr. HIRSCH: Well, it's rather surprising. When we talk about 20% excess weight or 20% over the expected weight, we're actually talking about 34 million Americans, and we're talking about, in physicians' visits, perhaps the average physician sees 11 such people each week.

WOODRUFF: How do you know this? Is this just available in the statistical --

Dr. HIRSCH: These are data that have been made available, yes, indeed.

WOODRUFF: What should these people do? If you say go to your doctor and you find out you're 20 pounds overweight, and that's 20% or 30 pounds or whatever?

Dr. HIRSCH: Well, our consensus panel didn't specifically address the issue of treatment, but clearly that's what we're aiming at. We want first for people to become aware of this, like the smoking problem. Now also like the smoking problem, we're not so happy about the results of treatment to date, but we want to address this in a number of ways, and people who have thid problem should begin treatment which is two-fold -- getting rid of the weight through more physical activity, on the one hand, and consuming fewer calories on the other. Much easier said than done.

WOODRUFF: Sure. Is this something that ought to be done under the counseling of a doctor, or can somebody just go off on their own and try to diet?

Dr. HIRSCH: We think it's a good idea to begin it with a doctor, but clearly other health professionals should be a part of this because the person has to be seen so often. And it is a matter of changing one's lifestyle, and physicians may not have enough time to be a part in that.

WOODRUFF: How much urgency are we really talking about here? I mean, clearly not as much urgency as if someone is extremely overweight, but is there a certain age group, for example, that's more susceptible?

Dr. HIRSCH: We feel the younger the problem is recognized the better the likelihood the treatment will be successful. And with children the problem is even more severe in the sense that not only is the weight reduction important for its own sake, but the weight excess may in fact be a risk factor for being an obese adult. An obese child may become, or is more likely to become, an obese adult than a non-obese child.

WOODRUFF: Is that proven? I mean, do you know for a fact that --

Dr. HIRSCH: No, it's not --

WOODRUFF: -- there's a connection, that if you're fat or overweight as a child then you're going to be overweight --

Dr. HIRSCH: It seems to run somewhat like this, that not all fat children become overweight adults, but overweight adults often were fat children. So it is a risk factor. But we do want to caution people that dietary treatment of obesity in childhood is a particularly perilous affair.

WOODRUFF: So the prevention that you're saying is just, number one, if you're a parent and have children, keep an eye on the weight?

Dr. HIRSCH: I think attention to it but not undue attention. We have seen situations in which the attention has actually fostered other illnesses, extreme concern with it and undue concern.

WOODRUFF: What should we be looking for? A nation of thin Americans? I mean, is that the ideal goal?

Dr. HIRSCH: Well, we should be looking for a nation who at least maintain the average weights as set up by these life insurance tables to the extent that we can. I don't think more thinness than that is required, but at least the prevention of obesity. You know, we as a nation are becoming more and more obese, and we would get some advantage if we stopped that.

WOODRUFF: Despite all the advertising and the emphasis on fashion and all the rest of it?

Dr. HIRSCH: That certainly is true, and it's true in different groups in the nation; for example, those of lower socio-economic status and some of the underprivileged groups are becoming obese much more rapidly than the rest of us. In some of the upper socio-economic classes the obesity is not advancing at the same rate.

WOODRUFF: Did all of this that you concluded at the conference surprise you very much?

Dr. HIRSCH: The only thing that really surprised me was how pervasive these hazards of obesity are, how many systems are involved and how much good evidence could be marshaled by different scientists working in specific areas on the effects of obesity, all of an adverse nature on their specific research activity.

WOODRUFF: In other words, when you bring in the blood pressure and the diabetes --

Dr. HIRSCH: Exactly. Exactly.

WOODRUFF: Well, Dr. Hirsch, we thank you for being with us.

Dr. HIRSCH: My pleasure. Depression on the Farm

MacNEIL: Our next focus section tonight is a different look at a subject that has received a lot of media attention very recently, the depressed farm economy. It's now expected that large debts will force at least 20% of American farmers off their land in the next three years. Our story tonight is about the emotional stress this is causing. It's a story about suicide. There's no accurate count of how many distressed farmers have taken their lives in recent months, but mental health workers are worried by what they're seeing. Kwame Holman went to Arlington, Iowa, for this report on one family's tragedy.

BETTY MEISGEIER: I asked him if he thought we could ever come out of this. He said, "My grandparents went through hard times, my folks did. We'll make it. Somehow, I don't know yet, but somehow we'll make it," he said.

DEBBIE MEISGEIER BAHE, Meisgeier daughter: When we were little kids, you know, he'd have us do something and I'd tell him, "I can't." He said, "You can if you want to. There's no such word as can't."

KWAME HOLMAN [voice-over]: Kenneth Meisgeierwanted more than anything to farm his own land. For 16 years he did that here in Arlington, Iowa. Last summer Kenneth Meisgeier killed himself, a victim of physical and mental stress caused by huge debts and the threat of losing his land.

DAUGHTER, in home movie: Smile, Grandpa!

KENNETH MEISGEIER: Why?

HOLMAN [voice-over]: His wife Betty and son Brian still live on the farm and still struggle to save it. The circumstances that plunged the Meisgeiers into financial distress are well known to Iowa farmers, many of whom are living their own versions of the Meisgeier story. In the tradition of family farming, Ken Meisgeier had wanted to help his two sons farm their own land, so when the farm next door came up for sale he took out a loan and bought it. Seven years later, Ken Meisgeier took on even more debt. A rickety old barn had to be replaced; he again borrowed money. That's when the financial troubles began. Debbie Bahe is the second of Meisgeier's three daughters.

Ms. BAHE: He did everything he possibly could. Before he expanded, he researched it, and the lawyer even told me, "In '79 this lawyer told Kenny, go ahead. That farm can stand a lot more debt load." You know, and all the literature and farm magazines and universities say that was the thing -- expansion, improving.

HOLMAN [voice-over]: Financing for the new barn took longer than Meisgeier expected. Construction stretched into the winter. Costs soared. All that time his dairy herd was left outdoors, exposed to the rain and cold.

BRIAN MEISGEIER: Something was happening to our cows and we really couldn't explain it. They were getting sick. They were getting pneumonia, and the veterinary would come out and treat and it wasn't actually doing any good. He'd treat and they'd die or we'd have to get rid of them.

HOLMAN [voice-over]: The Meisgeiers later found out that the herd was suffering from a rare but treatable disease. By then they had lost half the cows and half their income from the milk. Debts mounted and the bank refused to loan them more money.

Ms. MEISGEIER: Well, if we had some cash we'd go get groceries, but I always took him along so we had enough money, so I didn't get too many. And it was the hardest I have ever -- it was hard on him too.

HOLMAN [voice-over]: Like many farmers, Ken Meisgeier rarely talked about his problems. His family looked to him for leadership and strength, but they could see that the stress was taking its toll on Ken.

Ms. MEISGEIER: It's a terrible feeling. I could cry every day but he couldn't. He'd say every day, "I wish I could cry."

Mr. MEISGEIER: Something that Dad has done all his life was planting the seeds, planting the corn, and he kept stopping across the field and he wasn't getting much done, and I went out there and asked him, you know, what was happening and what's wrong. And he was out there counting kernels of corn and he kept checking the fertilizer, how much fertilizer was he putting on and stuff, and he was so worried about putting too much fertilizer down and too many seeds down because he was afraid he was going to run his expenses up too high that he could never pay them off, but he was also afraid of putting on too little for fear of not having a good crop. And he'd stop every so often and he'd just say, "I hate this. I don't know what to do anymore."

Ms. BAHE: And the last straw, I think, for a proud, stoical man is for him to file bankruptcy. And I think when he did that, from what I hear he didn't want to do that unless he had to, and he had to. He swallowed his pride, and that was the last thing he had left.

HOLMAN [voice-over]: Kenneth Meisgeier died last July 31st. On that morning his wife Betty went to town for a long-delayed visit to the doctor. When she returned home she prepared dinner, but Ken never arrived.

Ms. MEISGEIER: I got in the car and I went down to the place and I saw the pickup down there. And I drove around and I honked at every building, but I did -- something, I just couldn't get out of that car. So then I come back home and I told Brian, I said, "The pickup's down there. Come down and help me find Dad." So we did, and we went in every building, and I went in the house, and Brian went down to the machine shed.

Mr. MEISGEIER: I walked in there and glanced around, and first I didn't see him or anything, and I was just about ready to walk out and something caught the top of my eyesight there and I seen his feet, and he was hanging from the rafters up there.

Ms. MEISGEIER: It was terrible. I never dreamt Kenneth would do that.

HOLMAN [voice-over]: The Meisgeier family roots reach deep into the soil of Fayette County, Iowa. For more than 100 years Meisgeiers have raised their families and farmed the land here. News of Ken Meisgeier's suicide stunned his neighbors. For farmers who were experiencing their own financial troubles, his death was particularly unsettling. John Wogsland is pastor of the Lutheran Church in Arlington, Iowa.

Rev. JOHN WOGSLAND: At the time of Ken's death, I really thought that this was just the tip of an iceberg, that perhaps we were sitting on a powder keg. It wouldn't have surprised me to have been called on subsequent occasions that someone else had taken their life or to have heard of, in the general region, that others were, you know, destroying themselves because of the stress.

HOLMAN [voice-over]: It's winter in Iowa, a slow season for most farmers, a time for daily chores -- milking the cows, feeding the livestock or just doing nothing. Winter is normally a time of tranquillity but not this year. The mounting farm crisis caused first by expansion and now by high interest rates and depressed prices has pushed thousands of farmers like the Meisgeiers to the financial and psychological brink. Their stress arises not just from fear of losing a farm but a way of life.

[on camera] In Iowa the situation has gotten so bad that mental health counselors have begun to set up workshops to teach clergy and others how to help farmers cope with the emotional burdens that come with economic hard times.

JOAN BLUNDALL, mental health worker: It was real tough for this man to say, you know, for the last six months I've been fighting to save the farm.

HOLMAN [voice-over]: Joan Blundall is a human development specialist with the Iowa State University Extension Service. At this workshop in the town of Churdan she's teaching clergy and farmers how to recognize the signs of emotional crisis and how to help.

Ms. BLUNDALL: Well, in the Fort Dodge area, we became concerned about the number of suicides that had occurred around the beginning of the year. In a 2-week period we had four suicides and one suicide attempt, which certainly is greater than we would like to have, and nothing that we would anticipate having.

HOLMAN [voice-over]: At this workshop in Postville, Iowa, farmers are encouraged to go against tradition and talk about their problems with others.

FARMER, Postville, Iowa: It's a sad thing when a father has to go to his oldest son and say, "Well, maybe you can help buy some groceries or something," because there wasn't any dollars outhere to do it anymore.

Ms. BLUNDALL: Only if they talk about it can the anger and the depression that is within them be defused. We don't want any violence here, but we'll have it. We don't want any more suicides, but we'll have them. We're talking about reducing numbers. So we need someone, somewhere, who will break out and share their story as Deb and her family have done. That will free other people.

HOLMAN [voice-over]: The story of the Meisgeier family is still being written. They continue to grieve and to heal. As for the farm, Kenneth Meisgeier left some insurance money, and the bank has agreed to refinance the family's loans. But whether they can actually save the farm remains uncertain. Faced with the possibility of yet another loss, the Meisgeiers struggle to make sense of all that's happened. Debbie finds meaning in a song by Melissa Manchester, "Don't Cry Out Loud."

Ms. BAHE: The first verse of the song goes how the circus came to town and she was afraid the parade would pass her by, and that's -- it came to a time in Dad's life, he didn't want this parade to pass him by. He had a chance for his sons to bring the Meisgeier name, the Meisgeier boys back on the Meisgeier soil that was founded by a Meisgeier. And so he expanded. And the next verse is she danced without a net beneath the wire. He took a gamble. On the wire without a net beneath, that's a gamble. He took a gamble. He took a gamble that livestock would stay healthy, markets would stay up, machinery wouldn't break down. He took that gamble upon himself. Unfortunately, it all went adversely. And the final verse is, "fly high and proud, and if you should lose it all, remember you almost had it all." And he almost had it. He would have had his son. So I still think of my father with pride. News Update

MacNEIL: We have an update now. Since last summer we've reported twice on charges that 25 people in Jordan, Minnesota, were accused of sexually abusing children. Twenty-seven children were removed from their homes and placed in foster care. One adult pleaded guilty, one man and wife were acquitted after a trial, and the charges against the other 22 were dropped. In October, the state attorney general took over the case from the county attorney. Yesterday he charged that the county officials had mishandled the case so badly that it would be impossible to determine whether a number of children were abused, and if so, by whom. At a news conference in St. Paul, Attorney General Hubert Humphrey III said county officials had filed their charges hastily, interviewed child witnesses improperly and done too little to corroborate their testimony.

HUBERT HUMPHREY III, Minnesota Attorney General: There is no credible evidence to support allegations of murder or pornography, which arose during the sexual abuse investigation. Second, there is insufficient evidence to justify the filing of any new sex abuse charges. Therefore, I will be filing no new charges in these matters. The Scott County experience has been a tragedy from many perspectives. The children have clearly suffered; they have been subjected to a process which undermined their credibility, and as a result individuals who may have committed sexual abuse will not be prosecuted. We must also recognize the possibility that some citizens in Scott County may have been unjustly accused, not because of any improper motives on the part of the authorities or accusers, but because of a process which encouraged accusation.

MacNEIL: The Scott County attorney, Kathleen Norris, rejected Humphrey's charges and said she would keep on working aggressively to protect children from sexual abuse. At her news conference she also defended the credibility of children as witnesses.

KATHLEEN MORRIS, Scott County Attorney: I would like it to be known that we have successfully prosecuted many criminal sexual abuse cases before and since Jordan. I intend to continue to aggressively work to protect children in this county against extra- or intra-familial abuse, sexual or otherwise, and I do not intend to be intimidated by the remarks of Mr. Humphrey, including the suggestion that I should resign, something I categorically refuse to do. Secondly, I vigorously reject the conclusions set forth in Mr. Humphrey's report insofar as they suggest wrongdoing on the part of Scott County personnel involved in the investigation into the Jordan sex cases and on the part of my office in the prosecution of these cases. I also disagree with Mr. Humphrey's unspoken premise that it is wrong to prosecute a criminal sexual abuse case when it is a child's word against an adult's.

MacNEIL: As matters stand now, 11 children have been returned to their parents, eight are expected to be returned soon, and nine will then remain in the care of foster parents. And former defendants have filed lawsuits totalling $230 million against Kathleen Morris and Scott County. Jim?

LEHRER: And we have one further update. The well-publicized lost city of the Andes turns out not to have been very lost. Two weeks ago University of Colorado archeologists announced their exploration of the ruins of a city in the mountains of Peru, which they said had been lost since first discovered by an American explorer in the 1960s. They called it the lost city and it received much attention, on this program and elsewhere. Well, today The Washington Post reported the ruins have been listed in tourist guides and have been written about in several books and magazines for years. There was even a 1970 CBS documentary about them.

And that brings us again to the major stories of this day. The United States and the Soviet Union will meet in Vienna next Tuesday for two days of talks on the Middle East. Assistant Secretary of State Richard Murphy will head the U.S. delegation. The U.S. also blistered the Soviets for their and their allies' human rights policies in the State Department's annual report on human rights around the world. The report said in contrast there had been much improvement in the human rights picture in the Western Hemisphere.

Good night, Robin.

MacNEIL: Good night, Jim. That's our NewsHour tonight. We will be back tomorrow night. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.