The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. LEHRER: Good evening. Leading the news this Friday, reports raised the death toll in the Armenia earthquake to 100,000 as aid to the victims began arriving from throughout the world, and at least 20 people died in an Israeli commando raid in Lebanon. We'll have the details in our News Summary in a moment. Charlayne Hunter-Gault is in New York tonight. Charlayne.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: After the News Summary, we go first to the aftermath of the earthquake in Soviet Armenia, what happened and why, then Correspondent Paul Solman has a report on the high cost of government farm subsidies around the world, and finally we have two views on why the Israelis launched a commando raid deep inside Lebanon. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: An Armenian news agency today said 100,000 people were killed in Wednesday's earthquake. Fire fighters in the stricken area found 200 survivors in the rubble of one factory, but officials say time is running out for the rescue operations. Louise Bates of Worldwide Television News has the latest on the tragedy and efforts to help the victims.

LOUISE BATES: 80 percent of Armenia's second largest city, Leninakan, lies in ruins. Some nearby Northern settlements were completely wiped out by Wednesday's earthquake. An estimated 1/2 million people are now homeless. The death toll continues to climb, perhaps as high as 100,000. Rescue workers have already recovered 280 people from the rubble and debris of what was once Leninakan. Seven thousand Soviet troops deployed by the government are working around the clock in the hope of finding survivors. Chances now seem remote. The worst Soviet earthquake in 80 years destroyed many settlements, the tremors tearing away at prefabricated buildings. Some homes were swallowed up in fishers. The entire rail freight network has been diverted to relief work, transporting machinery to the stricken regions. According to the government, thousands of volunteers from all republics continue to flock towards Armenia. The major need in this disaster appeal is blood. Donations are being taken constantly to meet the demand of the thousands injured. A massive relief effort swung into motion all over Europe. Airports were crowded with cargo planes and supplies. Governments sent their best trained experts and high tech gear to aid in rescue attempts. A team of doctors left London specially trained in crush injuries, an expertise necessary to save the lives of the thousands injured. The doctors joined fire fighters equipped with heat imaging cameras to find survivors still trapped under the rubble. They'll also use a gadget which can detect a human heartbeat. The French brought a team of dogs to sniff out any sign of life. Their plane was loaded with 20 tons of medical and food supplies. A total of 180 people, including 22 doctors, left Eastra Air Force Base to help the victims of the catastrophe. The scene was much the same in Switzerland. For the first time in history, the Swiss Disaster Relief Corps headed for the Soviet Union. The team of 37 experts brought another 20 search dogs and tons of medical equipment. Two Italian transport planes took off with a team of Red Cross workers and government specialists. They'll determine what specific aid the devastated Armenia needs.

MR. LEHRER: The Soviet Union's Deputy Ambassador to the United States held a news conference this evening. He said the Soviet Union will accept United States aid to help Armenians recover from the earthquake. He said the U.S. has already loaded a plane filled with medical supplies and that it will be flying to Armenia's capital, Yerevan. Charlayne.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Israel today launched a commando raid deep inside Lebanon. Israel didn't say why it launched the attack, but the apparent targets were Palestinian guerrilla bases in rugged hills 8 miles South of Beirut. The raid started shortly after midnight and raged for nine hours as Israeli jets streamed over the Mediterranean and bombed guerrilla posts. They were backed up by Naval rocket bombardments and paratroopers who engaged in some hand to hand combat. Guerrillas fired anti-aircraft missiles at the raiding jets, but police said no hits were scored. One Israeli officer was killed and three soldiers wounded. Israel said it killed at least 20 guerrillas. At a NATO meeting in Brussels, Secretary of State George Shultz was critical of the attack.

GEORGE SHULTZ, Secretary of State: It's a surprise to me and I'll just have to learn more about it before I make any comment about it. But I had thought by this time the Israelis would have learned their lesson about putting troops well inside of Lebanon.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: In Washington, Klovis Macsud, the Arab League Ambassador, called Sec. Shultz's comments "a forward step", but said the U.S. should condemn the raid in the U.N. Security Council. He also called on the United States to begin talking with the PLO.

MR. LEHRER: The Finance Minister of Japan fell victim today to a major financial and political scandal. Kiichi Miyazawa resigned after it was revealed he bought stock in a private corporation at a low price and then reaped huge profits a short time later when the company's stock was listed on a public stock market. Prime Minister Noburo Takeshita announced he would assume the Finance Minister's duties in order to assure these kinds of things do not happen again.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: The U.S. Navy has ordered a former captain court martialed for allegedly failing to rescue Vietnamese refugees when their boat crossed the path of his warship in the South China Sea. The decision followed an investigation that found the Vietnamese vessel was out of food and water and had inoperative engine and sails. The accused, Capt. Alexander Belaine, claimed that the boat was seaworthy and said the crew aboard his ship, the U.S.S. Debuke, provided goods, water and navigational directions. Fifty-eight of the onehundred and ten boat people died during 37 days at sea. Some of the survivors claim they were forced to resort to cannibalism.

MR. LEHRER: President and Mrs. Reagan both received a clean bill of medical health today. The President and the First Lady underwent annual physicals at Bethesda Naval Hospital. Doctors said the President was in remarkable physical condition. They said there were no signs that President or Mrs. Reagan had a recurrence of their past bouts with cancer.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: The Santa Ana Winds, which caused so much damage yesterday in Southern California, continued to blow strongly today, spreading brush fires through several Los Angeles suburbs. In one neighborhood located in the San Fernando Valley, 10 homes were destroyed by the fire and another 10 were damaged. Fire fighters have had a difficult time controlling the flames which are being whipped by wind gusts of nearly 60 miles an hour. That's our News Summary. Still ahead, what happened in the Armenian earthquake and why, the high cost of government farm subsidies around the world, and the Israeli raid into Lebanon. FOCUS - FINDING FAULT

MR. LEHRER: The terrible earthquake in Soviet Armenia is where we begin again tonight. Finding the dead and the survivors remains the No. 1 priority on the ground, where the devastating quake obliterated one entire town and destroyed huge sections of two cities. The latest estimate is that 100,000 people lost their lives in the Wednesday tragedy, thousands were injured, and nearly a half a million more were left homeless. We bring three different perspectives to the story tonight, that of a seismologist, an architect, and a U.S. relief official, but first a report from Yervant Melkonian. He's an Armenian magazine editor who talked with Charlayne by phone from the capital of Armenia. He returned this afternoon from a tour of two cities devastated in the earthquake.

YERVANT MELKONIAN, Armenian Magazine Editor: It's terrible to say that probably all the town was damaged.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: In what way?

MR. MELKONIAN: You know all the buildings were destroyed, even one floor buildings were destroyed there, most of them, and the factories were destroyed, so that it was a very very terrible situation there.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: What seems to be the biggest problem in these areas where you visited?

MR. MELKONIAN: Well, the biggest problem, you know, is the technique problem, because this, especially the big buildings are damaged, and there are big parts of cement and metal so that you can't take them by the force of men. You need some techniques and the technique is coming now. They are beginning to work and I think that the work is going very good now because it's very good organized by our government here, the Armenian, and especially the Soviet Union Government, because most of the train lines are free to Armenia to bring everything.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Right.

MR. MELKONIAN: And by planes and by trains.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: How are the hospitals equipped to handle the casualties and how severe are they?

MR. MELKONIAN: They are hospitalized not only in Armenia. Most of them are hospitalized in Gorgiov and other places in Russian Republic, and even to Leningrad. They are taking them by airplanes and by helicopters.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: How is the general public handling this crisis?

MR. MELKONIAN: Well the general public, you know, it is very terrible for our people in all cases -- but after some depression cycle -- depression of earthquake for two, three hours, then the people begin to think about how to savetheir brothers, their families, and they were just -- well the earthquake was probably half past eleven and just two o'clock or three o'clock, the cars begun to go from Yerevan with groups with mechanical, technical and others to ride to these cities. Now the people is thinking about one, how to save many people from under the ruins. And I think our people just today -- his -- of all Armenians had the message to the people and the people now is thinking well, we must survive, so that we hope that we'll have with help of our government, with help of all the world, we'll survive this terrible earthquake and we'll continue our lives as a nation, as a people.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Well, Mr. Melkonian, we certainly appreciate this eye witness account and all of our prayers are with you in this terrible hour of tragedy for you and your countrymen.

MR. LEHRER: That report from Armenia. Now three other perspectives. Brian Tucker is Acting Seismologist for the State of California; Frederick Krimgold is Associate Dean of the College of Architecture and Urban Studies at Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University. He's been doing research on search and rescue efforts in building collapses since the Mexico earthquake of 1985, and Julia Taft is the Director of the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance. That is the U.S. Government Office that coordinates disaster relief efforts.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Krimgold, a simple question. Why is that so many people died in this earthquake?

FREDERICK KRIMGOLD, Architect: I think the most critical factor was the time. It happened at 11:41 in the morning. Most people were in large buildings, or the maximum occupancy of large buildings occurs at about that time. School children were in schools, office workers were in offices, and it was those large buildings, the failure of those large buildings, that accounted for the high loss of life. If we look at other earthquakes like Mexico City, we were just lucky that it happened early in the morning, before many of the large buildings were occupied.

MR. LEHRER: And the people who are killed, the people who die or who are injured, are done -- it's a crushing -- it's by crushing blows, is that correct?

MR. KRIMGOLD: Well, the pattern of injury varies from earthquake to earthquake. It varies from structure to structure. It also varies according to the time of day. But typically in large reinforced concrete buildings or concrete panel buildings, the kind of construction that we see in the urban areas in Armenia, people are typically stricken by elements of the building and suffer either crushing death or in some cases where they're entrapped, there's a very serious problem of asphyxiation, that is, when you grind up a concrete building, there is a lot of dust.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Tucker, an earthquake literally quakes the earth, is that right? I mean, it just shakes it, and that's what causes these buildings to fall?

MR. TUCKER: Yes.

MR. LEHRER: And there are always the stories about holes being opened up in the ground, in the earth. Is that also a characteristic of an earthquake, and what have been the reports that you have heard at least from Armenia about that?

BRIAN TUCKER, Geologist: Oh, I think that the holes opening up in the earth is not a typical sight. There's liquefaction that can occur in low lying --

MR. LEHRER: What's that?

MR. TUCKER: Liquefaction is where soil loses its bearing strength and buildings can rotate or sink slightly into the ground, but buildings or cows don't disappear from sight. But I do not, I don't think this is typical in Armenia. It's typical in low lying, high water content areas, and I haven't heard of any reports of that.

MR. LEHRER: So what happened in Armenia? What did the earthquake do that caused these buildings to fall?

MR. TUCKER: That really is the key question and the tragedy built on top of the human loss tragedy is if we do not know the answer to that. Obviously, they knew that earthquakes strike this part of Soviet Union, so they probably built the buildings anticipating earthquakes. The question that everyone must know and certainly we in the U.S. don't know at this time is whether the amount of shaking was larger than they expected, whether the design was capable, or whether the construction was adequate. All those three elements are important.

MR. LEHRER: As an expert, and your reading -- you and your fellow experts reading the intensity of the earthquake, was huge loss of life inevitable? Is it possible to build buildings that would have withstood this kind of shake?

MR. TUCKER: Definitely, and in California, great strides have been made to build stronger buildings, though we still have such unreinforced construction in older buildings in California. But since 1933, the Long Beach earthquake, we have been steadily improving our building codes. But one of the highest priorities in California is to identify and retrofit, improve our existing old structures.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Krimgold, as an architect, is it possible to build an earthquake-proof building that would withstand this kind of earthquake that happened in Armenia?

MR. KRIMGOLD: Certainly. Many of the buildings in Armenia did survive. In those cities where you saw the devastation, half the buildings, often of similar construction, survived.

MR. LEHRER: What's the difference?

MR. KRIMGOLD: Well, that's what -- that's what engineering research is about, trying to understand that difference more clearly. There can be local soil conditions, there can be local variations in construction. There can be local variation in quality of materials. It's very difficult to generalize.

MR. LEHRER: There's no handbook on this? There's no general concept that makes one building better to withstand earthquakes than others?

MR. KRIMGOLD: Oh, definitely. Definitely. But, in fact, as Dr. Tucker said, in the Soviet Union, the Soviet Union is one of the leading centers for earthquake engineering research. There has been a building code for this area. There has been a detailed seismic zonation for Armenia, and the threat was well recognized. The difficulty is that the design code is often a very careful and measured compromise between economic necessity and safety, and it is necessary to arrive at a safe design which is economically feasible. This calculation is very difficult.

MR. LEHRER: We'll have to see when more information is known on that. Ms. Taft, let's bring you into this. What is the status of the U.S. relief effort at this point? What are we doing to help the folks in Armenia?

JULIA TAFT, U.S. Relief Official: This afternoon we met with the Deputy Ambassador to the United States from the Soviet Union and discussed the details that we would be able to provide. Specifically, what is most needed are search and rescue teams to try to find people who still might be alive in the rubble. We are immediately preparing to deploy a team of search and rescue people --

MR. LEHRER: Now what are they? What constitutes a search and rescue team?

MS. TAFT: Primarily, they are dogs and dog handlers who are able to go in and identify where the diggers ought to concentrate their efforts. They can identify where there would be live people buried in rubble.

MR. LEHRER: What Americans qualify for that kind of work? Who are these people?

MS. TAFT: Well, they're all over the United States and there are regional organizations of dog handlers. They're private people.

MR. LEHRER: I see. Not police dogs?

MS. TAFT: No, sir. They're not police dogs. These are dogs particularly trained for search and rescue, whether it's wild land or urban earthquake rescue. We've used the dog handlers in El Salvador and Mexico City, and they've been working very closely with their counterparts in France and Great Britain, in Italy and Switzerland.

MR. LEHRER: The idea there, just so we understand, is just to save a lot of false labor in a hurry, right? In other words --

MS. TAFT: That's exactly right.

MR. LEHRER: -- these dogs literally sniff out where there are people?

MS. TAFT: Absolutely, absolutely.

MR. LEHRER: I see.

MS. TAFT: And as you say, it does save time, and of course, time is the most critical factor here. And so we're very pleased that the Soviet Union has accepted our offer. We will also have --

MR. LEHRER: How many are we sending?

MS. TAFT: We are sending six dogs and eight handlers for them and we're sending some trauma emergency people who will help provide the emergency care for those victims who survived, that are found by the teams and the crews that will have to do the digging. There are already dog teams on various locations in the affected villages and cities and the rate of recovery has been very good. so we're very pleased about that and have high prospects and hopes that we'll be able to save additional lives.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Krimgold, based on your experience, your study in Mexico, et cetera, what are the odds? What are the time problems in finding people who might be buried in the debris?

MR. KRIMGOLD: Well, what we've seen is that there's a pretty rapid drop-off in the probability of recovering people alive after the event. Within the first two days we may have a recovery rate of anywhere from 40 to 60 percent of live victims. But after the second day, it begins to fall off quite dramatically.

MR. LEHRER: What kills them?

MR. KRIMGOLD: Well, the big problem we have is that there are people with serious injuries which are not otherwise fatal --

MR. LEHRER: I see -- they go unattended --

MR. KRIMGOLD: -- but if they're unattended, if we can't reach them --

MR. LEHRER: Sure, sure.

MR. KRIMGOLD: -- a simple bleeding, which could be very easily attended to, becomes a fatal injury.

MR. LEHRER: We reported in our News Summary a while ago that they found 200 people in one building alone today, but you would --

MS. TAFT: Alive, alive.

MR. LEHRER: Alive, yes, exactly, exactly. And you think there's still the possibility at least that these things could still turn up?

MS. TAFT: Yes. As a matter of fact, there are cases where bodies -- live people have been found 10 days after the event. But as Fred Krimgold points out, mostly it's in the early few days, and it's the people who live nearby that actually do most of the rescue, but the dog teams are the best hope to find in selective areas where people can be recuperated. Now in addition to that and the medical personnel that will accompany this team, we are sending personnel who can help in the shelter. The urgent requirements right now, according to the Soviet Deputy Ambassador, are in the area of medical supplies, medical assistance, and they have just announced a list of the kinds of equipment they would like. We will be working with them and the private agencies here to try to meet as much of that as possible. But in addition to that, shelter; it's very cold there now. We're planning to send some tents and some blankets.

MR. LEHRER: Half a million people are without homes, at least, according to one --

MS. TAFT: It is just, it is just excruciating, but I've been very impressed with the briefings I've had on the fact that this has really been not only a well organized national effort on the part of the Soviet Union, but many private agencies and other donors are being able to assist in this effort.

MR. LEHRER: And the Soviets are very specific. That's what you mean by organization. They say we want this, we want this, but we don't need that yet, right?

MS. TAFT: That's correct.

MR. LEHRER: Is that essentially what --

MS. TAFT: That's correct. And there are periods at which certain kinds of assistance are appropriate. For instance, one wouldn't immediately try to go in and rebuild the factories and a lot of the facilities.

MR. LEHRER: Time for that later.

MS. TAFT: It's important now to find the people, give immediate shelter to those who have survived and help them start rebuilding their lives. So this is a process that's going to go on for some time. It's my understanding that this is the worst earthquake that has ever been recorded in that area, and the devastation has never reached a magnitude of this nature.

MR. LEHRER: Well, Ms. Taft, Mr. Krimgold, thank you both very much, and Mr. Tucker in Sacramento, thank you very much for being with us. FOCUS - CASH CROP

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Next tonight we take a look at an issue that affects everyone who has ever stood in a check out line in a supermarket. That's the issue of food subsidies, how much money governments pay farmers to grow food, which in turn affects how much you pay for it. At a meeting in Montreal this past week, the United States tried to convince more than 100 other nations to drop most of the food subsidies governments pay farmers, but the talks broke off late last night, postponed until April, and the United States appears to be no closer to its goal. Our special Business Correspondent Paul Solman has more.

PAUL SOLMAN: The General Agreement on Tariffs & Trade or GATT meeting in Montreal this week, admittedly not the most visually gripping event, and yet it focused on an issue that costs you and me a lot of money. The story begins back at the old family farm. Rustic reality has often been portrayed in dreary farms, but really, the progress of American farming is nothing to be glum about. As agriculture was mechanized throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, farm output soared with very happy results, more food, less labor. As a result, food became plentiful and cheap and American workers could finally leave the farm. Agriculture, which occupied some 65 percent of the American work force just a hundred years ago, has required fewer and fewer farmers in the past century and employs less than 3 percent of us today. Yet, American continues to rain down money on its farmers, actually subsidizing agriculture to the tune of billions a year. That raises an obvious question. Why do we continue to bankroll our farmers? One answer is politics. That is the American Farm Lobby, like other special interest groups, has been able to force the government to protect American agri business. American farmers are well, some would say too well, represented. Even as the population has left the farms for the cities, for examples, farm states continue to have two Senators in Congress and so wield political power disproportionate to their sometimes sparse populations. In fact, this year alone, farm subsidies will cost American taxpayers about $13 billion. That's a hefty chunk of the federal deficit and something like $150 a household. Ronald Reagan has been calling for an end to subsidies and the beginning of a free market in agriculture.

PRESIDENT REAGAN: [November 17, 1988] Who can be happy with government policies in agriculture around the world today? Has there ever been a better example of how bad things can get when governments get too involved? Expensive, destructive, taken together the role of governments in agriculture hurts consumers, it hurts the economies of the less developed countries, it even hurts farmers.

MR. SOLMAN: It's not just that the President doesn't want to spend the money, Reagan has noticed that when the government keeps farmers in business, farmers keep producing more food. For years, American farmers have produced so much wheat and corn and other subsidized products, that the country has been awash in surplus crops. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, European farmers are subsidized to over produce as well for much the same reason, political clout. In Spain, for example, these politically powerful farmers have thrown their crop to the wind, protesting free market reforms. The most extreme example, however, may be Japan. Because it's starved for land, Tokyo commands the highest real estate prices in the world. A six room apartment in this neighborhood sells for $6 million. Yet, all around the city are wildly uneconomic rice farms. Urban taxpayers and consumers subsidize them, paying as much as 10 times the world price for rice. Once again, the special interest farm groups have organized and prevailed. In Japan, farm districts have lot people to the cities, but those who remain wield considerable political power. A typical Japanese farm district has 1/4 the population of a city district, yet the same number of representatives in the parliament. The farmers are also especially vocal and provide crucial financial support to Japanese politicians such as these. Japan's prosperous consumers, meanwhile, are willing to put up with the demands of their outspoken farmers. The prominent Japanese business analyst Kenichi Ohmae explains.

KENICHI OHMAE: It's always noisy minority versus silent majority and the silent majority is basically happy, or they have been happy in the past, because they always compare themselves with ten years ago, twenty years ago, or even after that disaster after the war, where they starved. They say, oh, we can eat, so we're happy.

MR. SOLMAN: In Japan then, farmers wield political power to retain subsidies and consumers are rich enough to let them get away with it. And really, everywhere in the industrial world the pattern is the same. Japan, Europe, America, farmers are in the minority, yet they cost their societies an awful lot of money to produce an awful lot of food. So much for the industrialized world subsidies. Now let's look at the world's less developed countries. In the third world, farmers tend to produce too little, and one reason is that the governments here subsidize the consumers of food, not the producers. You see, in the less developed world, the city dwellers, poor as they often are, have more power than the farmers, and so governments in less developed countries buy off their urban populations by keeping food prices artificially low, from modern day Mexico with its tortilla subsidies as far back as a developing country of an earlier era, eighteenth century France. Here, the urban population had been sustained by government food subsidies. When the critical bread subsidy was curtailed, city dwellers had to grovel for something to eat.

SCENE FROM TALE OF TWO CITIES

MR. SOLMAN: "Let them eat cake," the king's wife, Marie Antoinette, supposedly advised. Instead, the people took to the streets and started the French Revolution. This sort of scene, a mass uprising in the city, is just what governments in developing countries have always been afraid of. It's what they remain afraid of today. In modern Mexico, when the government cut back on its tortilla subsidies, the urban masses were up in arms. In Brazil, the government tried to let food prices rise to market levels and urban consumers stormed the supermarkets. In the Dominican Republic, free market measures provoked even greater unrest. Summing up then, both the industrialized world and the third world tend to distort their food economies. Industrialized countries overproduce certain foods because farmers are subsidized. Lesser developed countries underproduce some of the foods they need, especially proteins, because they subsidize urban consumers. And it all cost the world as a whole an estimated $70 billion this year in under and overproduction. Almost no one disagrees with this diagnosis. The only question is how to cure the problem. According to U.S. Trade Rep. Clayton Yeutter, America must take the lead.

CLAYTON YEUTTER, U.S. Trade Representative: The challenges in agriculture are political. And what it means that we have to try to generate or stimulate the political courage on the part of nations to engage in truly meaningful agricultural trade reform.

MR. SOLMAN: It sounds so reasonable and yet, Yeutter's free market proposals and yet Yeutter's free market proposals would probably have trouble passing the U.S. Congress, much less the rest of the world. Politics is a major obstacle to change, but not the only one. Harvard's Ray Goldberg coined the term "agribusiness" back in the 1950's and remains one of its most foremost analysts.

RAY GOLDBERG, Harvard Business School: It's a moral issue, not just an economic and a political issue. The weakest links in the chain of the food system are the poor producer and the poor consumer. In the industrial world, we're not going to let the poor producer be the shock absorber for the whole system. In the developing world, we're not going to let the consumer that spends 80 percent of their income on food be the shock absorber for the developing world.

MR. SOLMAN: And so as the delegates convened in Montreal this week, politics, economics, and human ethics were all at play. In fact, subsidies have decreased somewhat in the past few years, but not as fast or as much as America would like. And that's the argument America lost at the GATT meeting this week.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Still ahead, the Israeli raid into Lebanon, but first this is pledge week on public television. We're taking a short break now so your public television station can ask for your support. That support helps keep programs like this on the air.

MR. LEHRER: For those stations not taking a pledge break, the Newshour continues now with a report from South Africa. White right wing opponents of the nationalist party won a number of seats in local town councils in recent elections. Those result add to the growing pressure on the government from black activists. We have a background report from James Robbins of the BBC.

JAMES ROBBINS: A rally of the right wing conservative opposition in Pretoria to hear thejudgment of party leader Andries Treurnicht on 40 years of national party rule. These are the unreformed fundamentalists. For them, apartheid is almost a religion. They still stand on the nationalist's 1948 manifesto of total segregation. So when President Botha started limited reform six years ago, Dr. Treurnicht resigned from his cabinet. With the blessing of Betsy Fervert, widow of apartheid's master builder, now he hints at violence ahead.

DR. ANDRIES TREURNICHT, Conservative Party Leader: It's not only they and the blacks who can talk in terms of a liberation struggle. Very soon it may be that the whites will be forced to fight a liberation struggle.

MR. ROBBINS: The Afrikaaner white wing want exclusive control of the present as reward for their struggles of the past. The ox wagon is the symbol of past struggle, the great trek to escape British rule and fight blacks for the territory further North. This year the trekers of 1838 are being saluted by members of the Afrikaaner of 1838 are being saluted by members of the Afrikaaner Foxfa, a right wing affiliate of the conservative party, selling souvenirs to raise cash for the right wing restaging of the trek. Anna Boshoff, Furvort's daughter, leads the Foxfa with her husband with Prof. Carroll Boshoff.

ANNA BOSHOFF: There are only two things and that is integration and separation in this country. You can't really have a mid way.

MR. ROBBINS: A liberal critic of the government accepts the right wing analysis, although it depresses him. Prof. Willem Kleynhans broke away from the national party 33 years ago.

PROFESSOR WILLEM KLEYNHANS, Political Scientist: For whites to reform and introduce the reforms that is required for this country to survive and to provide a contented feeling among the people of this country requires major political changes, a major breakdown of race barriers, and the whites are not prepared to do that.

MR. ROBBINS: But President P.W. Botha insists he's determined to involve black people at every level of government. He spoke recently of giving them a voice in choosing his successor, though not a decisive voice. Strength lies in white hands, so the right wing is a greater threat. F.W. DeKlerk, a senior cabinet minister, knows that better than most. He leads the party in the province of Transval, heartland of Dr. Treurnicht and his right wing.

F.W. DeKLERK, Cabinet Minister: We must get away from white domination inasmuch as one can say that it exists, however, to exchange white domination with black domination will not be a solution. It is a question of being alongside with us, those who have not attained full political expression.

MR. ROBBINS: In the black townships, there's a deep, often tired cynicism about the alleged vagueness of government plans. How are genuine black leaders to emerge when major organizations like the United Democratic Front have been banned from political activity, their leaders silenced or imprisoned without trial? And in this atmosphere, the editor of the Sowetan, largest daily aimed at blacks, has been making his judgment on 40 years of nationalist rule.

AGGREY KLAASTE, Editor, The Sowetan: This government because it tries to be a transitional government has got all the birth pains of transition. They move one step, we will ask for more as black people. In the meantime, they will be worried about the right wingers who are saying they're selling out, so I mean, I can understand that -- they are not sympathetic because after all -- it's not as if they were not torn from 1948. Now how can you be sympathetic to people like -- now that we're in this particular mess -- you just have to try and help them out of the mess if it's possible. Because unfortunately, we are stuck to each.

MR. ROBBINS: What is President Botha to do? He still resists open negotiation, trusting in a middle way between separation and integration. Whatever may have changed, the history and the folklore of Afrikaaners struggling for independence remain powerful political weapons. FOCUS - FIRE FIGHT

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: We go next to the latest outbreak of serious fighting in the Middle East, the Israeli raid on a Palestinian guerrilla base nine miles South of Beirut and the ensuing 9 hour battle. Reports indicated the Israelis ran into heavier than expected opposition. One Israeli officer was killed and three soldiers wounded. In a moment, we'll discuss why the Israelis struck now after this report on what happened by Louise Bates of Worldwide Television News.

LOUISE BATES: The Israeli fighter bombers swooped in off the Mediterranean and hammered the guerrilla headquarters with bombs and rockets. A number of buildings, as well as an ammunition dump, were destroyed in the raids, which were also used to support ground troops helicoptered into the area. Palestinian, Druse and Shiite militiamen fought back with outdated anti-aircraft guns as well as small arms fire. Palestinian sources said that many civilians were wounded in the action, which was the largest operation carried out by the Israelis in Lebanon since the 1982 invasion. People tried to flee the area as the battle raged, while in Jerusalem the Israeli military claimed the Israeli raid was a success.

MOISHE FOGEL, Israeli Military Spokesman: The results of this operation was at least 20 terrorists were killed in the headquarters and training centers, we did not have any contact, as I said, with the Syrians, and we consider the operation to be very very successful.

MS. BATES: Four Israeli soldiers became separated from their unit and took refuge in this hilltop monastery. Israeli war planes bombed it while helicopter gun ships mounted a successful rescue mission. As the fighting continued, Secretary of State Shultz attended a NATO meeting in Brussels. He gave the Israeli operation a cool response.

GEORGE SHULTZ, Secretary of State: And I'll just have to learn more about it before I make any comment about it, but I had thought by this time the Israelis would have learned their lesson about putting troops well inside of Lebanon.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: We turn now to two Middle Eastern journalists. David Mizrahi is Editor of The MidEast Report, a bi-weekly based in New York. Raghida Dergham is the Chief Correspondent of the Arabic weekly Al-Hawadeth.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Starting with you, Raghida, is Sec. Shultz right? I mean, has Israel forgotten the lessons of military involvement in Lebanon?

RAGHIDA DERGHAM, Al-Hawadeth Weekly: I think what the Israelis may have had in mind in this particular operation is to go and provoke Palestinian radicals to retaliate from Israelis, and then maybe do another operation, what could be termed as a terrorist operation, to coincide with the Geneva -- General Assembly where Arafat is supposed to be speaking peace.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Next Tuesday.

MS. DERGHAM: Next Tuesday. So, therefore, I think they had in mind to go for a limited operation and then did not expect what had happened really of resistance and coordination between Palestinians and Lebanese groups, and as a result, they didn't think it will get so involved, and as a result, it failed I would say.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: A miscalculation.

MS. DERGHAM: A miscalculation.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Is that how you see it, David?

DAVID MIZRAHI, Mideast Report: Well, I see it as a provocation. All of this has something to do with Arafat's speech next Tuesday, so the Israelis, you see, are noticing that since November 15th, at the Algiers Palestine National Council, every pronouncement by Yasser Arafat was a step forward towards the American position. And I think the Israelis also fear that Arafat would go out of his way on Tuesday before the United Nations in Geneva and start something that the Americans would accept and the Israelis will not accept, and, in fact, the Israelis are provoking the guerrillas in Lebanon so as to have the guerrillas retaliate or any way, Arafat would not be in a position on Tuesday to say unequivocally that he recognizes Israel. That will be tantamount to betrayal by the other PLO factions.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: But the reason this turned out not to be the other surgically precise strike that the Israelis usually carry out you think is the result of unexpected resistance, organized --

MR. MIZRAHI: It was an unexpected resistance. The Israelis, I'm sure, did not expect that, and that in itself proves that the Palestinians were ready for an Israeli attack, and that in itself is going to serve the Israeli purpose in the final analysis which is to, not to sign a peace or sit down and negotiate with the PLO.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: How will that happen? I mean --

MR. MIZRAHI: Because there was like a tacit mandate in Algiers for Yasser Arafat to do something in order to enhance the PLO position especially vis-a-vis the United States and not necessarily vis-a-vis Israel. Arafat said that the ball is in the American court. In fact, the whole game was an American ball game, and consequently, the Israelis want to stop that, because in my opinion at least, Arafat's purpose was to get some sympathy from the United States and to have then the Bush administration apply pressure on Israel. The Israelis don't want that.

MS. DERGHAM: I feel that there is what could be considered a PLO peaceful offensive that is going on now and the Israelis cannot deal with it. They are not to respond to it and now the United States Government in its reaction to this PLO peaceful offensive is sort of protecting Israel from having to face up to it.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: In its reaction, in what reaction? I mean, Shultz just condemned the raid.

MS. DERGHAM: Yes, but the State Department today made it a point to diffuse what Shultz had said.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: In what way?

MS. DERGHAM: In the sense that they would not even repeat Shultz' words and in the sense that they said we're investigating it, and did not even recognize that this was violation of the sovereignty of a country, and yet, of course, we know that Lebanese take good care of that country, and as far as ruining it, yes, of course. At the same time, a raid into another country is at least to be called that, at least to be condemned or deplored as such. But, no, it did not happen from the State Department today.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Do you think there's any possibility that this could have the effect of moving the United States closer to direct talks with the PLO, which as we all know the United States has thus far refused to do?

MR. MIZRAHI: It might, but in the final analysis, it's not the United States or the PLO. The first phase, yes, is the U.S., the United States and the PLO, but the ultimate phase is between the PLO and the Israelis, you see.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Well, is this strike likely to have another effect, and that is there were already tensions within the Palestine National Council at the meeting you referred to in Algiers, and Arafat's wing won out, that is in the peaceful steps? Is this likely to have the effect of undermining that position and strengthen the hard liners who don't want to have talks?

MR. MIZRAHI: Exactly, this is I think basically the Israelis' strategy is to sow dissension among the PLO factions and have the radicals within the PLO stop any move, as Raghid said, any peace offensive on the part of Arafat, and then we, we're back to square one.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Were you about to say something on that?

MS. DERGHAM: I agree that this is the Israeli purpose. I do not agree that the raid accomplished that purpose in the sense that David pointed out the Israelis do want to break the unity that prevailed amongst PLO forces in Algiers, and it is to their advantage to do that, so the aim of the raid is to do that, but I don't think it did accomplish it.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: How do you know? I mean, what signs --

MS. DERGHAM: Because the raid did fail and because it was finally -- I mean, as we are analyzing that we are aimed at provoking retaliation it is not going to unlikely -- I do not rule it out obviously, but it's unlikely -- and, therefore, Arafat would be able to go next Tuesday to Geneva and blame the Israelis for that raid to provoke retaliation so that the radicals will be encouraged and the moderates will be on the hit list, if you wish.

MR. MIZRAHI: Well, I think this is precisely what the Israelis have in mind. They have in mind to stop Arafat's peace offensive. Arafat is in no position today to start a peace offensive, to continue his peace offensive on Tuesday in Geneva.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: What do you mean?

MR. MIZRAHI: Because if Arafat goes ahead with the peace offensive, there will be some outcry within the PLO factions.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Why?

MR. MIZRAHI: Why? Because just imagine the PLO, the radical factions accepting after that raid on a PLO base in Lebanon to see those radicals accept that Arafat continue the peace offensive. This is unacceptable for the radicals now.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: You don't see it that way?

MS. DERGHAM: No, not really. I mean, of course, the better ammunition in the hands of the radicals is the United States' reaction to what the PLO has done. I don't think it is the raid, itself. For example, the more the PLO had taken of what could be considered moderate positions at the PNC, or in the Stockholm announcements that Arafat has made, it has not been encouraged by the United States, so this is more of an ammunition in the hand of the radicals to say, look, we do peace and then what do we get, we say we are ready now to sit down and negotiate with Israel in an international conference on the basis of 242338, and then we're told that's enough --

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: What do you make of the coincidence of this raid coming on the first anniversary of the Palestinian uprising? Is it merely coincidence or --

MR. MIZRAHI: I don't think so. I don't think so. I think there was a plan. The plan was there in the Israeli drawers, but the plan also had something to do with the first anniversary of the antifada.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: That's the uprising?

MR. MIZRAHI: The uprising because for the Israelis, it's a two pronged attack, one against the guerrilla bases in Lebanon. The second is to show the people of the West Bank and Gaza that the Israelis after one year are not afraid to attack these bases and crush the bases of the guerrillas in Lebanon and to show that Israel is still a strong country.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Do you have a comment on that?

MS. DERGHAM: Yeah. I think it is directed against the antifada, the uprising, in a different manner, that is to take away from it the character of civil disobedience by joining its character under the PLO umbrella as it claims that the PLO is its leadership with what could be termed as terrorist attacks sought by the retaliation, I would say. So it was against the antifada in the sense of discrediting the leadership. The antifada says it is the PLO.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: All right. Well, we don't have any reaction yet from Israel, and so we'll just have to wait and see. Thank you, David Mizrahi, and Raghida Dergham for being with us. RECAP

MR. LEHRER: Again, the major stories of this Friday, the official Armenian news agency said the death toll in the Soviet Armenia earthquake will probably top 100,000. Earlier on the Newshour, Julia Taft, the Director of the State Department's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, said a plane load of U.S. relief supplies has been cleared for shipment to the disaster area. And as we just heard, Israel lost a major commando raid against a Palestinian facility in Lebanon, 20 people were believed killed. Good night, Charlayne.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Good night, Jim. That's our Newshour for tonight. We'll be back after the weekend. Thank you and good night.