The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

INTRO

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. The fragile peace in Lebanon got a few jolts today. Bullets and artillery fire were again exchanged; four more U.S. Marines were wounded, and the Lebanese reconciliation meeting was canceled. We have the details on all of that tonight, as well as a preview of the House debate tomorrow over aiding those fighting the government in Nicaragua and a major documentary look at what's happening in Pakistan, a seemingly tranquil place where trouble is breeding, trouble that broke out into violence and death today. Robin?

ROBERT MacNEIL. And we'll hear of the profitable commercial future President Reagan foresees in space. We also examine the volatile computer industry, where one leading manufacturer whose profits are falling while another is riding high. We profile a computer entrepreneur who thinks his business is war.U.S. Aid for the Contras

LEHRER: The two places in the world that have been dominating U.S. policy and interests dominated again today. In Lebanon there were both military and diplomatic developments, while on Central America the action was here, over covert aid to anti-government guerrillas in Nicaragua. The Lebanon news included the wounding of four more U.S. Marines when a bomb exploded near a Marine truck in southern Beirut. Their injuries were described as minor. The death of at least two Lebanese soldiers and six civilians in a renewed outbreak of artillery and gunfire within Beirut and in the Shuf Mountains overlooking the city: it amounted to one of the most significant breaches of the ceasefire since it went into effect three weeks ago, and was attributed to Lebanese army attempts to cope with sniper and other attacks from Shiite Moslem and Druse militia. And the first meeting tomorrow of the ceasefire's national reconciliation committee has been called off as three of the nine Lebanese factions set to attend the meeting reaffirmed their objection to the meeting place, the Beirut international airport. They claim it would be unsafe, despite its being under the protection of the 1,600-man U.S. Marine force there. Lebanon and the role of the Marines there is likely to be a key issue later tonight when President Reagan holds a televised news conference.

And, on Nicaragua, there were new predictions today the House would say no to covert U.S. aid for the Contras, the anti-Sandinista group waging hit-and-run war against the Nicaraguan government from bases in Honduras and Costa Rica. House Majority Leader Jim Wright joined earlier predictions of such action coming from House Speaker Thomas O'Neill, among others. The vote is due tomorrow as part of an intelligence funding bill, and if the Democratic majority does vote to cut off the aid, it would be a major foreign policy defeat for President Reagan. The successful Contra raides last week against Nicaragua's oil and gasoline supplies heightened the debate within the House about the use of U.S. funds and the CIA in support of the guerrilla actions. Robin?

MacNEIL: In a moment we're going to hear both sides of the covert aid debate in the Congress. First, we hear both sides in the struggle in Nicaragua from a key member of the Sandinista leadership and a leader of Contras, or rebels. Last week, on assignment for us, Charles Krause talked in Managua with Humberto Ortega, Nicaraguan defense minister and commander in chief, about the military situation.

HUMBERTO ORTEGA [through interpreter]: What we see in the coming weeks is a worsening of the military factors and the real possibility of war with Honduras, to the extent that Honduras is becoming more fully and directly involved in the aggression against Nicaragua. It's no longer the counterrevolutionaries receiving help from Honduras, but rather the counterrevolutionaries as part of U.S. strategy to use Honduras to distract our forces and creat conditions allowing Honduras to make overwhelming attacks against our revolution, against our army.

CHARLES KRAUSE: Then you're expecting war with Honduras?

Comm. ORTEGA: -- against Nicaragua.

KRAUSE: And the United States?

Comm. ORTEGA: Of course, and with the support of the United States. There are American soldiers in Honduras with full logistical and advisory support, assurance of all kinds of materiel for aggression. Now, whether the United States is going to get directly involved in our war, that I can't predict. I'm not a fortune-telling wizard who can say exactly what will happen, but I can affirm that with the Yankees and troops that are in Honduras, if there is a conflict between Honduras and Nicaragua arising from the activities of the Somozista counterrevolutionaries, then the possibility of the U.S. getting involved in that conflict is much greater. The real scenario I see for the coming weeks is serious. It's deteriorating because efforts toward peace, efforts at understanding, are not proceeding apace with the sabotage, the buildup of the Honduran forces and the counterrevolutionaries in Honduras andin Costa Rica.

KRAUSE: What's more likely? Negotiations or war?

Comm. ORTEGA: If the United States has a number of points to make, that they believe Nicaragua is supplying arms to El Salvador, that Nicaragua has Cuban advisers or from elsewhere, etc., if there are a number of things that they don't like about Nicaragua, there are also aspects of U.S. policy that we don't like, and we think that there can and should be analysis, talks, discussions, but in a framework of mutual respect -- a decent framework, a civilized framework, a framework without conditions, without abusing the strength of one over the other, without threats, without holding a gun to our head.

MacNEIL: Later, back in Washington, Charles Krause talked with Adolfo Calero, commander in chief of one of the largest Contra groups, the FDN, or Democratic Forces of Nicaragua. Krause asked for his reading of the situation in Central America.

ALDOLFO CALERO: Well, I would say the situation is real hot, and will continue to heat up, and we will not cease in our efforts to establish democracy in Nicaragua by whatever means it takes. At the beginning, right after the Somoza overthrow, we -- political parties, private enterprise, practically all Nicaraguans -- gave the Sandinistas the opportunity to establish a democratic government. In January of this year we told the Sandinistas that we were ready to put down our arms if they would fulfill the commitment that they made to the Organization of American States for democracy, pluralism, elections and respect of human rights. And since none of those commitments have been fulfilled, we have been obliged to take up arms against this sea of troubles that Nicaraguans are going through.

KRAUSE: Why should the Nicaraguan people or, for that matter, the American people, believe that your group, which has Somocista officers in it -- why should anyone believe that you are democratic?

Comm. CALERO: Well, to begin with, there is no proof to the contrary, and putting it positively, I think that the people who lead FDN through their lifetime have proved to be people who want democracy, who have worked for democracy.

KRAUSE: Has the Reagan administration given you assurances that they will support you to that end?

Comm. CALERO: We believe that there is a full commitment on the part of this government and that the principal people in this government, like President Reagan and Ambassador Kirkpatrick and Secretary Shultz, they have continually made the statement giving us, let's say, hope.

KRAUSE: To what extent are CIA advisers helping you?

Comm. CALERO: Well, CIA is not people -- nor FBI people, for that matter -- going around, showing their identification. I could say that I have met no one who has shown me a CIA identification card.

KRAUSE: Well, then, what is all the money from the United States going for?

Comm. CALERO: If the United States is giving us any money, which is something I couldn't prove in a courtroom, and if other peoples from other countries are also giving us money, I mean, that, whatever we get goes for the armament we have, for the ammunition we have and for the needs that an army would have.

LEHRER: Now to the debate in this country between two congressmen who will speak on opposite sides tomorrow when the Contra aid issue goes to the House floor. They are Peter Kostmayer, Democrat of Pennsylvania, and Mark Siljander, Republican of Michigan. Both are members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Congressman Kostmayer, you want the aid cut off, is that correct?

Rep. PETER KOSTMAYER: That's right.

LEHRER: Why?

Rep. KOSTMAYER: Well, I think there are a number of reasons. The first is that it's clearly illegal, against the law. In December of 1982, Congress passed the Boland Amendment, which was quite clear in prohibiting any expenditure of American funds to assist in the destabilization or overthrowing of another government. Secondly, I think it runs strongly contrary --

LEHRER: Wait a minute. Let's take that one first. Congressman Siljander, how do you argue -- what's your answer to the legality argument?

Rep. MARK SILJANDER: Well, we have other commitments, the U.N. Charter, the OAS agreement, the Rio Pact, the Monroe Doctrine, by which we stand by commitments we've made to our fellow Americans, plus the issue really is, we're not out to overthrow the Sandinistas in Nicaragua. That is a misnomer, a misunderstanding of the issue.

LEHRER: All right.

Rep. KOSTMAYER: Well, I visited the Contra camps and saw 15-, 16-, 17-year-old kids heavily armed with machine guns. They are there to overthrow the Nicaraguan government; not to influence or to moderate policy. The Boland Amendment speaks not to these general principles and policies but specifically to Nicaragua, and it says that the CIA should not be expending, as it is now, millions of dollars to assist in the destabilization or overthrowing of the government.

LEHRER: What do you see the purpose of the Contras to be, Congressman Siljander?

Rep. SILJANDER: Well, there are two clear purposes. Number one, certainly we're supporting the Contras who are demanding fulfillment of commitments made by the Sandinistas before the Organization of American States -- free elections, freedom of speech, freedom of press, freedom of religion and labor unions, none of which -- none of which -- have been followed through by the Sandinista government. Secondly, we are there to stop the export of arms and revolution, which is clearly happening by the Sandinistas, especially, specifically into El Salvador, and the next target, as we heard by Ortega himself, likely will be Honduras.

LEHRER: What's wrong with that, Congressman?

Rep. KOSTMAYER: Well, let me say two things. First of all, the bill which we'll consider tomorrow, which cuts off covert funding for the Contras, provides $50 million for arms interdiction. So we're not suggesting --

LEHRER: You mean arms interdiction -- arms going from Nicaragua to El Salvador?

Rep. KOSTMAYER: To El Salvador, absolutely. We recognize that that's occurring to some extent. No one's quite sure how much. We're not talking about some kind of unilateral irresponsible withdrawal of American involvement in Central America. We authorize the expenditure of $50 million in 1984 to assist friendly nations in stopping the flow of weapons from Nicaragua to El Salvador. And, secondly, the administration's concern with free labor unions, elections, democratic political principles doesn't apply in Chile, it doesn't apply in Argentina or in South Africa. The Reagan administration's concern with these issues is really quite new.

LEHRER: Is that true, Congressman?

Rep. SILJANDER: It's nothing new. What we're attempting to do is force commitments, freedom of basic human rights and self-determination. I am more than willing to cut off all covert aid. Now, my fellow colleague is willing to contribute overt aid, which implies a premise of potential involvement of overt war. We're talking about assisting freedom fighters, in my opinion fighting for their own freedom.I'm willing to cut it off if the Sandinistas are willing to call for internationally supervised elections. Before, so all sides may campaign freely; during, so there's not interference; and after, so whomever wins will take power. And if they win, the left wins, we should then, as a government, agree to pull out all assistance -- arms, any --

LEHRER: Go automatic. Just let them have it.

Rep. SILJANDER: Let them have it. If the people really want the Marxists, backed by 7,000 Cuban troops, 1,000 Soviet-bloc advisers, and 800 to 1,000 PLO Libyans that are using Nicaragua as a base for exporting revolution -- if they want that, let them have it.

LEHRER: To the vote tomorrow specifically. Congressman Kostmayer, you heard what the Contra leader told Charles Krause. He says that he feels he has a commitment from the United States government, from President Reagan, Secretary Shultz, Ambassador Kirkpatrick, for the U.S. support. If you all do vote to cut this support off, what have you done to those folks?

Rep. KOSTMAYER: I think Congress made its commitment very clear in December of 1982 when it adopted the Boland Amendment and the Contras should be aware of that. The question is very simple --

LEHRER: You don't see this as undercutting the President?

Rep. KOSTMAYER: I think it undercuts a bad policy, the policy which is to overthrow governments with whom we have some very legitimate disagreements, and I'm certainly not an admirer of the Sandinistas. The question is fundamental. Should the United States be in the business of overthrowing governments whose policies we do not agree with?

LEHRER: What do you think would be the impact of a negative vote tomorrow in the House?

Rep. SILJANDER: Well, the impact of a negative vote certainly will send ripples that we have not made a firm commitment in sticking to our U.N. Charter commitments, our Rio Pact commitments, our OAS commitments -- the Organization of American States. And let me repeat, the contention made that we're there to overthrow the Nicaraguan government is erroneous. It's been stated time and time again by the --

Rep. KOSTMAYER: Let me get to one thing -- let me --

Rep. SILJANDER: -- by the Secretary of State and the President of the United States: our policy is not to overthrow the government, but --

Rep. KOSTMAYER: I think the impact --

Rep. SILJANDER: the two points that I made earlier.

Rep. KOSTMAYER: The impact will be very clear. The impact will be simply that we don't accept the military solution; we believe in a political solution. That's what the impact of this will be.

LEHRER: Let me ask you both this question. Both gentlemen we just heard from the ground on both sides down there say things are getting hot; there's going to be war. How would the vote, up or down, impact on that situation, Congressman Siljander?

Rep. SILJANDER: Well, number one, the interdiction of arms has proven to be successful. We've caught Libyan vessels; we have found fishing villas along the Nicaraguan coast used to export and store arms. I talked to a former assistant ambassador in the Sandinista regime --

Rep. KOSTMAYER: And we're not opposed to the interdiction of arms. We'll provide $50 million.

Rep. SILJANDER: Are you going to answer my question? May I answer my own question?

LEHRER: You may.

Rep. SILJANDER: Thank you. Now, I talked to an assistant ambassador formerly to Honduras who has involvement with the Cubans and the Soviets, and he says clearly if the involvement of the Contras, as they accelerate their involvement, the attention goes to stabilizing the bastion of revolution in Nicaragua, the Cubans make decisions, they firmly are committed to forgetting El Salvador, for stop the arms shipment and let's worry about keeping Nicaragua stable. So it will have a very negative impact.

LEHRER: Do you, Congressman Kostmayer, agree with Ortega's scenario, that the more the U.S. supports the Contras, the more likely there's going to be a war with Honduras?

Rep. KOSTMAYER: Well, I think we have to ask ourselves what happens when the Contras cross from Honduras, where they're based, into Nicaragua for these raids in which they're engaging, and the Nicaraguan army pursues them into Honduras. I think the possibility of a wider war is a very realistic possibility, and I think we're running that risk.

LEHRER: If that should happen, Congressman Siljander, should the United States get involved?

Rep. SILJANDER: The United States should not get involved. The President said there will not be troops involved in combat in Central America.

LEHRER: No matter what happens?

Rep. KOSTMAYER: But there are 20,000 American troops in Central America now -- on the Caribbean and Pacific coast of Nicaragua, and another 8,000 to 10,000 troops based in -- we're only asking for trouble.It's awfully easy to send those American soldiers in. It's mighty tough to get them out.

Rep. SILJANDER: Here is what we asked for. Every year or two we've had routine military maneuvers in Honduras. This is nothing new. The difference is certainly the timing was appropriate, and a show of force -- within 48 hours of our show of force and the acceleration of Contras efforts in Nicaragua, all of a sudden the Sandinistas, for the first time in months, come out with a six-point peace plan. Proof is positive. We are out for a non-militaristic solution, and the only way to do that is clearly to force the Sandinistas into sitting down at the negotiating table talking about elections, talking about freedom and self-determination.

Rep. KOSTMAYER: I think the opposite has happened there. They've turned more and more to the Soviet Union and to Cuba, I think as a result of this.

LEHRER: Toughest question of all, Congressmen. How is the vote going to go tomorrow?

Rep. KOSTMAYER: It's going to be very close. We had a meeting with the leadership this afternoon, and it's going to be terribly close. I can't predict it, although I think we have a good chance of winning by a very narrow margin.

Rep. SILJANDER: I think that likely the Congress will pass the Boland-Zablocki language. It's unfortunate --

LEHRER: Meaning cutting off the aid?

Rep. SILJANDER: Yes, I think they will. It will not go through the Senate, so I encourage those freedom fighters in Nicaragua that, while the Congress may not keep up with their commitments, at least on the House side, I hope the Senate will maintain commitments that we've made to the freedom fighters to force their opponents into the negotiating table. Not to war, but to the negotiating table.

LEHRER: Gentlemen, thank you both very much. Robin?

MacNEIL: While the House faced a bitter fight over covert aid, the Senate today ended a bitter struggle over Martin Luther King. By an overwhelming vote of 78 to 22, the Senate swept aside all objections to pass a bill establishing a national holiday in honor of the civil rights leader 15 years after his assassination. The bill designates the third Monday in January, starting in 1986, as a legal holiday called Martin Luther King Day. The fight against the bill was led by Republican Senator Jesse Helms of North Carolina, who also tried and failed to get a court order to release FBI files about Dr. King. Today Helms had this reaction to his double defeat.

Sen. JESSE HELMS, (R) North Carolina: You ask any black who knows me, who knows me, whether I'm a racist or a bigot. And of course this is what the other side says. If you don't jump through the hoop and do everything they say, then you're a racist and a bigot. Now, all I have wanted, and I have gotten it, I think, is for these facts to be laid out for the American people to see, not only for now but 50 years from now, because 50 years from now people are going to look back and say, now, just why did they set aside this holiday for this man? What happened to the investigative talents of the news media? Why haven't you been interested in what those files say? Now, you were interested up to your ears in the Nixon files.

MacNEIL: Senator Edward Kennedy told the Senate that King deserves the place which this legislation gives him beside Washington and Columbus. "In a real sense," Kennedy added, "he was the second father of our country, the second founder of a new world that is not only a place, a piece of geography, but a noble set of ideals." Among those who watched from the Senate gallery was Dr. King's widow, Coretta Scott King.

CORETTA SCOTT KING: For those of us who believe in the dream it's a great day for America and for the world. During these past months, as this legislation worked its way through the Congress, men and women of every political affiliation have been called upon to demonstrate great courage and commitment and stand up for what is right and just. I want to thank Senator Baker, Senator Kennedy and Mathias, who were the main sponsors of this bill, and they did a tremendous job.

MacNEIL: The Senate bill now goes to President Reagan, who has already agreed to sign it. We'll be back in a moment.

[Video postcard -- Raquette River, New York]

LEHRER: There were three stories today about space -- two real and one maybe not so real. The questionable one is about the two Soviet cosmonauts whom the BBC reported were stranded in a space station with no way to get back to earth. The BBC report said a propellant leak had caused the problem and the potentially tragic dilemma. But today not only did the Soviet government deny it all, but British, American and other experts who monitor Soviet space activities also said it simply wasn't so. A BBC spokesman told us this afternoon it was now easing off its earlier story.

Otherwise, President Reagan went to the National Air and Space Museum here in Washington today to cut a birthday cake celebrating the 25th birthday of NASA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Mr. Reagan then spoke of the space glories still to come.

Pres. RONALD REAGAN: Right now we're putting together a national space strategy that will establish our priorities and guide and inspire our efforts in space for the next 25 years and beyond. It'll embrace all three sectors of our space program -- civil, commercial and national security. Private companies are already beginning to look to space. In this regard, the space shuttle program could well be compared to the first transcontinental railroad. And when profit motive starts into play, hold onto your hats. The world is going to see what entrepreneurial genius is all about and what it means to see America get going.

LEHRER: Space story number three is about some new competition for the U.S. up there, not from the Soviets but from our European allies. Today in French Guiana, off the South Atlantic Ocean, a communictions satellite waslaunched by the 11-nation European Space Agency. The satellite is capable of handling two-way phone calls and television signals and is up there to go into commercial business. The launch sponsors say they already have orders for $750 million on the books, and another $250 million or so in hot prospects.

And two physicists and a chemist made it a clean American sweep today in the 1983 Nobel Prizes for Science. Professor Henry Taube of Stanford University in Palo Alto, California, is the chemist. His prize was for work on electron transfer reactions. The physicists are Professor Subrahmanyan Chandrasekhar of the University of Chicago for his studies of the structure and evolution of stars, and Professor William Fowler of the California Institute of Technology for his findings concerning the chemical elements in the universe. All three of the winners are Americans, although Taube was born in Canada, Chandrasekhar in India. Robin? Computer Wars

MacNEIL: There was a lot of economic news today. The Commerce Department reported that housing starts fell last month to the lowest level since April, but the September figure was still 45% ahead of a year earlier. But another government figure showed evidence of more economic growth in September. Personal income was up and so was personal consumption. But on Wall Street the stock market fell for a second day in a row; the Dow Jones average of 30 leading industrial stocks closed at 1246.75, down 4.06. The most active stock, AT&T, was down 1 1/4 to 63 after the phone company announced that earnings in the third quarter were down by 28%. But the biggest shock on Wall Street has been the full-scale retreat of most computer stocks. Yesterday, the country's second largest computer manufacturer, Digital Equipment, announced that its earnings would decline by at least 65%. That sent Digital's stock plummeting, losing one-fifth of its value yesterday and another 6 3/4 points today, closing at 72.

To look at this latest example of turbulence in the high-growth, high-risk computer business, we have Barbara Isgur, an analyst for the investment firm Paine Webber.Ms. Isgur, what happened to Digital that sent its stock down so far so suddenly?

BARBARA ISGUR: Well, when a company announces earnings that decline 65% or more, with no prior warning to Wall Street, one thing the investment community doesn't like is a surprise, particularly a negative surprise.And when the decline in the earnings were related to the personal computer sector of Digital's business, that ratified people's fears that this is an area where you can't possibly make money.

MacNEIL: Now, why did that then frighten investors with all the other computer stocks, because almost across the board they went down yesterday, didn't they, in that area?

Ms. ISGUR: I think that the investment community tends to look at the computer stocks as a group, and when there's bad news that affects one company or one sector, it does spill over into the other companies and the other sectors.

MacNEIL: Now, isn't this supposed to be the great white hope of American industry now -- computers, a high-tech area like this? What's happening in it to make investors so nervous?

Ms. ISGUR: Well, I think that long term, the high technology area is a great growth area for this country, but in the short term individual companies make miscalculations, either strategic or other kinds of miscalculations, and it's not going to be a smooth, unbroken growth path either for the industry or for probably most of the companies involved.

MacNEIL: What kind of advice are you giving investors who are interested in this sort of area now?

Ms. ISGUR: Well, at this point I'm saying that one has to pick the company rather than the industry as a whole, and to try to focus on those companies who have carved out a product niche where there is a need for a product and not a lot of competition in that niche, or to focus on those companies where there hasn't been a disappointment in the earnings along the way over the last six to nine months.

MacNEIL: Well, we're going to come back in a moment. Jim?

LEHRER: It is not all gloom in the computer business. There are up sides to the story, and one of the most up involves a company known as Commodore International. It is a leader in the home computer business; that's the low-price end of the industry where the object of the sell is often a child. Charlayne Hunter-Gault has the story of Commodore and its chief executive officer, Jack Tramiel.

JACK TRAMIEL, CEO of Commodore International: When you come out with a product or when you are in business, you have to have an attitude that it's war and it's there to win.You have to be the winner.

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT [voice-over]: Jack Tramiel's product is home computers; his company, Commodore. And on this battlefield, at stores like Sears, K-Mart and J.C. Penney, Tramiel and Commodore are two of the biggest winners. At a time when the future of the home computer business is anybody's guess, Jack Tramiel isn't guessing about Commodore. He says his computers are here to stay.

Mr. TRAMIEL: The home is the biggest market; that will be the biggest market for the next three, four years because the American youth and the world youth is so hungry for technology that it's unbelievable.

HUNTER-GAULT [voice-over]: Whether or not Tramiel is right, he has earned a reputation as a survivor. Now 53, he was among the few who came out alive from the Auschwitz concentration camp in World War II. He came to America, served in the Army, and set up a typeweriter repair business in the Bronx. From there he went into selling calculators, then computers from locations all over the world.

Mr. TRAMIEL: So I said to myself, well, I have no diploma because during my years of my youth I spent in the concentration camp. So I really had to do it strictly with instincts, right? With business instincts and with hard work to prove to myself, right? and to build a family, right? because I was the only one left.

HUNTER-GAULT [voice-over]: Tramiel's desire to survive and win is clearly reflected in his business success, a success he unabashedly attributes to borrowing from the Japanese.

Mr. TRAMIEL: I spent and I'm spending many days and weeks, and I've spent many years in Japan, and I watched those people, how they have succeeded. And they take everything very seriously, and they take business like war, and I believe it very much because I could see that's the only way to win.

HUNTER-GAULT [voice-over]: Industry experts also point to other factors in Commodore's present success. Commodore beats the opposition at the marketing game. It produced a low-cost home computer capable of doing more than playing games, and it has been able to meet or beat the competition on price.

Mr. TRAMIEL: In here is where we make money or lose money.

HUNTER-GAULT [voice-over]: The main reason Commodore can beat the others in price competition is that it designs and makes its own computer chips, the tiny pieces of silicon that are the key to the technology. That means that the company controls a vital cost, and does not have to depend on outside suppliers. These prototype chips are being designed at a Commodore plant outside Philadelphia, but most manufacturing is done in Asia. Some other companies also make their own chips, but they don't have a Jack Tramiel pubhing the buttons. Tramiel believes his company has to be where the action is. For Commodore that means in the last six years Tramiel has moved the headquarters three times. He is now based in Hong Kong.That location reflects the company's emphasis on foreign sales and manufacture, and Tramiel's appreciation of Hong Kong-style capitalism.

Mr. TRAMIEL: I believe very much in capitalism, and that's the only city where it's true capitalism. It's eat or be eaten. There's very little government regulations; there's no welfare. You work or you starve, and that's the reason why people work very hard in Hong Kong.

HUNTER-GAULT [voice-over]: Some industry experts think the company relies too much on foreign sales and profits. It has had stormy relations with many of its U.S. dealers. Tramiel also has a reputation as a hard-driving, fiercely independent, hands-on businessman who has gone through three advertising agencies and even more executives in three years.

ULRIC WEIL, Morgan Stanley: The management style of Jack Tramiel's is such that he has not exactly attracted a stable, strong management staff below him. In fact, the management below Jack Tramiel has been characterized by a revolving door. The general managers and the VPs have come and gone at a fairly rapid fire only because undoubtedly Jack's genius is such that he's not the easiest man in the world to work with or work for.

Mr. TRAMIEL: Many, many people are like Olympic runners. If they succeed at, you know, winning the 100 yards and they get the medal, they feel that they made it. I believe that you have to run every day, be a professional, that you have to practice every single day. If not, you'll lose the taste.

HUNTER-GAULT [voice-over]: An estimated five million Americans of all ages will buy home computers this year, most for the first time. The battle for this market is both cut-price and cutthroat, and casualties are mounting. Atari has posted losses and changed management. Texas Instruments is losing money and hopes new marketing executives can turn it around. Timex is having trouble holding onto its early successes. Getting home computers into the mass market stores and offering the cheapest price, as low as $200, has kept Commodore ahead of the competition so far. Tramiel and Commodore will need the staying power because the biggest battle in the home computer industry still lies ahead, against the Peanut, the long-awaited home computer from IBM.

[interviewing] Are you going to be any match with your home computer for the Peanut?

Mr. TRAMIEL: Well, first of all, we are very proud that IBM has decided, after we having more than two million computers out there, that there is a home market. They definitely did not lead; they followed.

HUNTER-GAULT: Do you have a strategy for taking them on, or do you just plan to --

Mr. TRAMIEL: I'm not taking them on; they're taking me on.

HUNTER-GAULT [voice-over]: Except for the giant IBM and a few other survivors, the computer industry is littered with the carcasses of small companies that started fast, performed brilliantly and then died just as quickly. While some Wall Street analysts are beginning to grow more cautious about Commodore's future profits, most experts still think it will be one ofthose to survive the shakeout.

Mr. WEIL: We see the clear outlines of who is going to survive, and a year from now it'll be, besides IBM Peanut, which you mentioned, there'll of course be Commodore; there will be Tandy, which, thanks to its almost 7,000 storewide retail chains, certainly will be a participant. So, besides Tandy, Commodore, IBM, Apple will have brought its Apple II down into the home computer range in terms of pricing. So you'll have Apple in there, and Texas Instruments probably will be around.

HUNTER-GAULT [voice-over]: This question may stump many people who wonder if home computers will go the way of last year's fad, video games. But to Tramiel, the future market is infinite.

Mr. TRAMIEL: So, to me, I am investing for the future, and we as a company are really trying to serve the world youth, which are going to be the decision-makers of the future.

HUNTER-GAULT [voice-over]: So, for Jack Tramiel, the home computer war is the 20th century children's crusade, just one of many metaphors that can be applied to his zest for business and for life.

Mr. TRAMIEL: When I say first that the business is war, people, you know, stare at me. But really what it means, you know, you can turn around and you can say business is like serving breakfast. To me also I use also word "sex" to mean business is like sex. I like to touch it. I like to be with it. I don't like to look at it and scream.I like to be there where the action is.

MacNEIL: Ms. Isgur, is Mr. Tramiel's confidence justified for Commodore?

Ms. ISGUR: Well, I think it has been so far, and I think that part of that is due to Mr. Tramiel's ability to identify where the market is going and tailor a product to fit that direction before his competitors get there and at a price that's very difficult for other people to match and still make a profit. So I'm optimistic about their --

MacNEIL: Because his stock went down a little bit yesterday with the general decline, and was down, I think, three-quarters of a point again today. But you don't think that's serious? It's just a temporary thing, do you?

Ms. ISGUR: No. I think ultimately the companies that have continuing earnings growth will fare very well in the market, but I think during periods of turmoil they're all going to be impacted by the news that affects some.

MacNEIL: How do you think he's going to fare when IBM, the huge giant in big computers which dominates that industry, unleashes its little home computer soon -- Peanut and other things?

Ms. ISGUR: Well, I don't think one ought to underestimate the strength of IBM in its marketing ability or in its distribution and manufacturing ability. But I think that from what I understand of the Peanut, its price point makes it applicable to a different sector of the home market than the Commodore products.

MacNEIL: Above the Commodore? They're more expensive, in other words?

Ms. ISGUR: Yes,much more expensive than the Commodore products.

MacNEIL: Let me ask you this, finally, about Commodore. How does it affect your handling, as an analyst, of Commodore stock [now] that Commodore is under investigation by the SEC and the IRS and had a bankruptcy problem in Canada and so on? Does that give you worries about it?

Ms. ISGUR: It does on one level, and I caution clients that this is a company that has had a number of questions raised about the management. Despite that, I think we can look at the past 18 quarters of continued earnings growth and look ahead to what I think will be continued earnings growth for the next eightto 10 quarters, and I think that as a money-making investment it's very difficult to come up with others that are equally attractive.

MacNEIL: Mr. Tramiel said the home is going to be the biggest market for the next three to four years. Is he right, or as Charlayne raised the point in the film, is there a danger of this craze burning out like the video game craze? How do you analyze that?

Ms. ISGUR: All right. I think that the home market, unit-wise, is going to be a very significant market, probably reaching 50 million units or more by the end of the decade. I think that the danger in the home computer market is the question that Charlayne raised, why own a home computer? And I think that the problem with the video game market was that the software didn't progress as fast as the expectations of the owners. I think that the answer for the home computer market lies largely in the software as well: are you going to be able to offer people, maybe not one compelling application, but a critical mass of applications that is going to make them say, in the same way that they decide to buy any other home appliance --

MacNEIL: They need it rather than it's just fun, you mean?

Ms. ISGUR: Well, it's useful. Not that you need it. I don't need a dishwasher. I can wash my dishes by hand. But it's a convenience. When we can say that about the home computer, then I think that question will go away.

MacNEIL: Well, Ms. Isgur, thank you very much. Jim?

LEHRER: And, from the medical beat, there is good news -- potentially so, at least -- on two dreaded diseases: multiple sclerosis and toxic shock syndrome. Scientists at the California Institute of Technology and the University of California said today they have for the first time isolated a gene that is associated with nerve disorders in mice. It's a breakthrough which may provide a key to finding a similar genetic link to multiple sclerosis, a major crippler of young adults. And in New York scientists said the mysteries of toxic shock syndrome may be linked to a newly discovered gene in bacteria. Toxic shock is a sometimes fatal disease that has been associated with tampon use. Dr. Richard Novick, who is director of the Public Health Research Institute, said the discovery of the gene could lead to a vaccine or a test to determine who is likely to suffer from the ailment. As of last June, 2,200 people had suffered from toxic shock, and 103 of them had died.

We'll be back in a moment.

[Video postcard -- Woods Hole, Massachusetts] Pakistani Dissent

MacNEIL: For our last major story tonight we turn our attention to Pakistan, where there was fresh violence today in a mounting campaign against the military rule of President Zia. In the southern province of Sind, police fired on villagers resisting a seacrch for arms.The villagers said five people, were killed and 60 wounded. The government said only one died. In the city of Lahore, police locked several hundred lawyers in a courthouse to prevent them from marching in a protest demonstration. For nine weeks an opposition alliance of nine banned politicl parties has been demanding restoration of democracy after six years of martial law under President Zia Ul-Haq. More than 60 people have been officially repored killed in clashes; the opposition claims 150 dead. The mounting violence threatens a regime strongly backed by the United States with military aid. Pakistan is regarded by the U.S. as a strategic ally, bordering on Iran, India, China and Soviet-occupied Afghanistan. Pakistan is a haven for Afghan refugees, and the entry point for Western military aid to the rebels.Here is a documentary report on President Zia and his opposition from Gavin Hewitt of the CBC.

GAVIN HEWITT [voice-over]: Pakistan, an Islamic state in the making. Over half its 90 million people live off the fruits of the land. It's 36-year history has been dominated by the wealth of the fertile Punjab and an army almost exclusively Punjabi. The home of the president is open to the people, from the highest to the most humble; all on this day can present their grievances. It's an act of open government that belies the fact that Pakistan is a military dictatorship, ruled by President Zia Ul-Haq. Today this army general faces his severest challenge. In recent weeks, violent demonstrations have called for his overthrow. His hospitality on this, the Islamic festival of Eid, is presented as the act of an avowed Muslim who carries out his duties to the poor and hungry. For the past six years he believes he has saved Pakistan from the chaos of politics. To his opponents, President Zia's Islamic society is a convenient disguise for military rule.

This rare demonstration in Lahore was against martial law and in support of the movement to overthrow President Zia. The women want democracy because they fear they'll gradually be restricted to their homes. As a protest it was a hopeless gesture; a few onlookers shouted "Shame!" as posters were torn up and the women bundled into police vans. Women's rights carry little appeal in a male-dominated Pakistan. President Zia dismissed the protest as that of 14 women out of 40 million. The authorities, however, are sensitive to such scenes being shown abroad. On a previous occasion, when foreign cameras weren't present, the women were charged at by police, tear-gassed and beaten with wooden canes.

Pres. ZIA: In Pakistan I tell you the majority of women -- and please take my word -- the majority of the women are for an Islamic order because that is where their respect lies and that's where their freedom lies.

KHADIJA GOHAR, Women's Action Group: It's not the Islam we have been against. It's the interpretation of Islam which certain people today in Pakinstan claim to be the spokesmen. They claim to have the monopoly, and they are putting forward this interpretation, and it is against this particular interpretation that all women have organized and are struggling.

HEWITT [voice-over]: It is the people from rural Sind who are leading the movement to overthrow President Zia. Sindis have a keen sense of their own language and tradition, and have a long-standing resentment towards the central government in the Punjab and its largely Punjabi army. Sind is divided by the River Indus, which brings life to the parched desert soil. This is a feudal society of big landlords and spiritual leaders. Pakistan's last prime minister, Ali Bhutto, was a Sindi. It is not forgotten here that he returned in a coffin, having been hanged by President Zia. Eight weeks ago, when President Zia announced elections for March, 1985, the Sindis rose in protest. President Zia, they feared, could well continue in power. An effigy of President Zia astride a donkey. For eight weeks, the towns of Sind have been in uproar in flagrant violation of martial law. Zia has been called a dog. The flag is carried openly of the now-banned People's Party of executed Prime Minister Ali Bhutto. His death is one of the causes of Sindi fury. But outside the towns of Sind, the campaign for democracy has drawn lukewarm support. The oppositionin Pakistan has once again shown itself to be divided. There is deep suspicion that when Sindi nationalists call for self-respect they mean Sindi self-respect. A resume of the dead killed in a clash with the army near the town of [unintelligible] on September the 29th. Since August, the opposition says, over 200 people have been killed. Embittered Sindis are now talking of fighting, not so much for democracy, but for a Sindi motherland against the Punjabi army.

SINDI NATIONALIST: This is our motherland. We fight for our motherland.We fight with soldiers of Punjab. We fight with [unintelligible]

HEWITT [voice-over]: Despite the protests, the military government is pursuing its own election timetable, first with local polls, and then with national elections involving acceptable politicians. Zia's generals hope the present politicians will discredit themselves by infighting and that a new breed of partiotic Muslims will replace them. Whether they will succeed in building an organized democracy depends largely on whether the present disturbances spread beyond the province of Sind and into the big cities. The Karachi Bar Association holds an illegal meeting. To address them, Maulana Shah Noorani, a mullah of great influence in the southern cities of Karachi and Hydrabad. As Noorani rises to speak, martial law regulations are defiantly torn up.

MAULANA SHAH AHMAD NOORANI, opposition mullah: I am in a struggle. I am in a struggle. My party also is in a struggle, for we are supporting the demand for the restoration of democracy as --

HEWITT [voice-over]: President Zia, in the short term, appears secure both from the army and the quarrelsome opposition, but his image as a strong Muslim statesman has been tarnished. [President Zia at prayers] Pakistan's relationship with India, which had shown signs of improving, has again gone frosty. It's tightly controlled press has alleged that Mrs. Gandhi of India has been backing the Sindis with arms and money. President Zia has been swift to see foreign hands at work inside his country.

Pres. ZIA: There's a very strong underground movement for the subversion in Pakistan, in which the Soviet hand is there and we cannot -- we have no proof as yet, but I do not leave out the possibility of India not being involved into this.

INDIRA GANDHI, Prime Minister of India: Well, it's for the people of Pakistan to decide what they want in their country. We do not believe in interference. Naturally, we ourselves are committed to democracy in our country, and if we believe it's a good thing for us we believe it's a good thing for others.

Pres. ZIA: Well, she said we cannot sit down idle and be unconcerned of what is happening inside Pakistan today. In Sind, particularly. She had no bloody business to say so. I do not say what is happening inside India.

HEWITT [voice-over]: Within Sind shadows lurk the fears of Pakistan's long-term stability. Many Sindis feel betrayed that the rest of the country hasn't followed them, but talk at night is of independence. In that event, other provinces might follow the path of the Sindis.

IFTIQAR GILANI, Movement for the Restoration of Democracy: If this government today does not accede to the demands of the agitation today, and I think they may be able to suppress it for the time being, but that will be a very, very dangerous phenomenon because that suppression -- after that the agitation would be for the disintegration of the country and at least we are really and genuinely afraid for the unity of the country.

Pres. ZIA: I am fully convinced that Pakistan has come to stay and Pakistan will stay and, by the grace of God, it will be a strong country. This spectacle of dissension at the present moment is a momentary event in the life of any particular government, and it will fade away. I do not say it will fade away tomorrow. It will perhaps keep on simmering for a long time to come, but it's the movement or an activity by a faction, a very small group of frustrated politicians, nobody else.

MacNEIL: There was also violence today in another country Washington watches closely, the tiny Caribbean spice island of Grenada. A confused power struggle between Prime Minister Morris Bishop and his deputy, Bernard Coard, erupted into shooting. Crowds loyal to Bishop freed him from house arrest, but troops fired on the demonstrators and Bishop was seized again. Witnesses said four people were killed. The U.S. Embassy in Barbados, 150 miles away, sent an official to look after the 1,500 Americans on Grenada. The Reagan administration has accused Grenada's Marxist leaders of falling under the sway of Castro's Cuba.

In Brazil a 68-day state of emergency was declared in Brasilia, the national capital, as a measure to stop opposition to government efforts to rescue the economy. According to the government, the action is intended to create a tranquil climate for members of Parliament, who will be voting on a bill to reduce wages in a program to gain extension of foreign loans.

Jim?

LEHRER: To recap the major news of the day, four more Marines were slightly wounded in Lebanon as tomorrow's reconciliation meeting among the warring Lebanese factions was scrubbed because of disagreement over where it should be held.

There are fresh predictions the House will also scrub the Reagan administration's covert aid to anti-Sandinista guerrillas in Nicaragua.

And there's some hopeful news about finding cures for multiple sclerosis and toxic shock syndrome.

Finally, for baseball fans this day brought only one major story. Pete Rose, the 42-year-old Mr. Hustle of TV commercial as well as baseball fame, was released by the Philadelphia Phillies. You may remember what The New Yorker magazine's Roger Angell said about him here two weeks ago before the World Series.

ROGER ANGELL, baseball writer: I think that there are players playing today who are as good as players who have ever played. I mean, certainly nobody has ever played baseball the way Pete Rose plays. I don't mean that he's better than anybody else ever, but there's an absolutely unique mark and stamp he puts on the game -- the way he runs a base, the way he turns a base, the way he attacks a ball, the way he looks back at the umpire.

LEHRER: Rose was released after he declined a Phillies offer to play part time. He said at a press conference afterward he would play for some other team next year. "My pride has been messed with," he said.

Good night, Robin.

MacNEIL: Good night, Jim. That's our NewsHour tonight. We'll be back tomorrow. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.