The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening, I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight, excerpts from last night's Republican candidate forum in New Hampshire, with analysis by Tom Oliphant and David Brooks, substituting for Mark Shields and Paul Gigot; a Terence Smith look at the opening of a new front in the TV morning news war; and a Ray Suarez conversation with the new president of Nigeria. It all follows our summary of the news this Friday.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: President Clinton today proposed new rules to protect patients' privacy. They'd be the first federal regulations designed to keep computerized medical records confidential. They'd prevent the release of sensitive files to employers, marketers, and others without patient consent. They'd also allow patients to see who has viewed the material and take legal action against anyone who abuses it. The President spoke at the White House.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: Today with a click of a mouse personal health information can easily and now legally be passed around without patients' consent to people who aren't doctors, for reasons that have nothing to do with health care. Americans should never have to worry that their employers are looking at the medications they take or the ailments they've had. In 1999, Americans should never have to worry about nightmare scenarios depicted in George Orwell's "1984."

JIM LEHRER: The new privacy rules would go into effect in the year 2002 following public review. On Wall Street today, the stock market kept climbing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 107 points at 10,729; the NASDAQ Index was up 91 points and closed at a record 2,966. It was an apparent continuation of a rally started yesterday on government reports of steady growth and low inflation in the third quarter. The Senate today shelved a bill extending new trade privileges to countries in Africa and the Caribbean. It would have lowered tariffs and quotas on imports. Senators from textile-producing states voted against it. Trade will be one of the issues addressed during an interview with the president of Nigeria later in our program tonight. Russia rejected international calls for diplomacy and launched a new wave of attacks on Chechnya today. Russian air force and artillery pounded the capital Grozny and several villages. Troops blocked off border crossings, stranding thousands of refugees. In Moscow, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott met with Russian Foreign Minister Ivanov. He spoke about the situation.

STROBE TALBOTT: We understand that Russia is grappling with a very real and very grave threat in the form of extremism and terrorism, and that obviously the Russian federation has not just a right, but an obligation to protect the Russian state and protect Russian citizens. It's the hope of the United States, and I think many others in the international community, that Russia will find a way of addressing this extremely serious challenge in a way that minimizes as much as possible a civilian casualties, the loss of innocent lives.

JIM LEHRER: Back in this country today, a plot to kill people at a Cleveland high school using guns and explosives was uncovered. Authorities closed the school. Mayor Michael White said four students had been arrested and were being held in custody. The "Cleveland Plain Dealer" newspaper reported the plan was similar to the one carried out earlier this year at Columbine High School in Colorado. Fifteen people were killed in that attack. Republican presidential candidates faced off in New Hampshire last night. They took part in a town meeting-style debate at Dartmouth College. Absent was Texas Governor George W. Bush. The five others answered questions on issues such as taxes and abortion. We'll have excerpts right after this News Summary. Rhode islanders paid their last respects to Senator John Chafee today. Chafee's body lay in state in the rotunda of the capitol building in providence. The 77-year-old Republican died of heart failure on Sunday. President Clinton, cabinet members, and members of Congress plan to attend a memorial service for Chafee tomorrow. There was a memorial service for golfer Payne Stewart today in Orlando. He and five others were killed Monday when their Learjet mysteriously veered off course and crashed in South Dakota. Golfers Tiger Woods and Mark O'Meara were among those who attended today's service. Two professional golf tournaments postponed action so Stewart's colleagues could attend. The chief investigator into the crash said today the Learjet was traveling 600 miles an hour when it hit the ground. He based that on the condition of the cockpit voice recorder. Millions of New York Yankee fans lined Broadway today to cheer their World Series champs through the city's canyon of heroes. The team was given a traditional ticker tape parade, riding on half-a-dozen, specially designed floats. A rally at city hall wrapped up the day's festivities. The Yankees clinched a record 25th World Series title on Wednesday. And that's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to the Republicans in New Hampshire, analysis by Oliphant and Brooks, the new front in the morning news was, and the new president of Nigeria.

FOCUS - FACING OFF

JIM LEHRER: Last night we had the Democratic presidential candidates in action. Tonight, it's the Republicans. Five of them were on stage last night in a town meeting format at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire. Texas Governor George W. Bush did not participate. Here are excerpts from the event.

MODERATOR: Good evening, and thank you all very much for joining us here in New Hampshire tonight. Let's begin with our first question.

UNIDENTIFIED WOMAN IN AUDIENCE: Should the Republican Party be more inclusive by encouraging pro-choice voters to support their candidates?

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: I worry a great deal about the unintended consequences of sending a message that we are not an inclusionary party. I am a proud pro-life person. I have a 17-year record on that issue. But I believe that we must begin a dialogue and a discussion on the issue of abortion. Both pro-life and pro-choice people believe very strongly that we need to eliminate abortion. I and my wife, Cindy, are proud adoptive parents. We need to encourage adoption in America. We need to match up those children that have no families with those families that have no children. We need to improve foster care dramatically in America. We can work together. And my party, which is proud of its pro-life position and I am proud of it, should send the word, we want you in our party. We can have respectful disagreements on specific issues and we can work together on this one. I thank you.

MODERATOR: Thank you, Senator.

MAN IN AUDIENCE: I'd like to hear the Senator's position on Second Amendment rights, and if elected, what his policy would be toward the recent wave of litigation facing the firearms industry.

SEN. ORRIN HATCH: Well let me tell you something. When it comes to constitutional... expressed constitutional provisions-- and the second amendment is one of those expressed provisions-- you've got to be very loathe to try and change that provision by mere statute. So I am a strong supporter of Second Amendment rights. I am also a strong criticizer of this administration, because there are people being killed in our society today because they're not enforcing the law. Parents are afraid to have their kids go to school because they don't know whether those kids are going to be safe in schools. They're worried to death about it. And the reason they are is because 12,000 kids and adults took guns to school in the last two years in violation of law. Guess how many prosecutions by this administration? Thirteen. I'll tell you what I'd do. If you commit a crime with the use of a gun and you have a gun on you, it's an automatic ten years without parole. If you fire that gun, it's an automatic 20 years. If you hurt somebody with that gun, it's an automatic life.

WOMAN IN AUDIENCE: How do you plan to continue with the war on drugs?

ALAN KEYES: When I was born in 1950, we didn't have a huge plethora of laws dealing with all kinds of drug use and abuse, and yet we also did not have an enormous drug problem in this country. The reason that we proliferated the laws is because the fundamental discipline that was prevailing in our society when I was born has broken down. We have a crisis that goes to the heart of the question of whether or not we're a people that still acknowledges that there is a difference between right and wrong which we must pass on to our children and enforce, even if it means that we ourselves must accept inconvenience.

MODERATOR: Thank you, Mr. Keyes.

ALAN KEYES: When we face that reality, then we will have solved the problem. (Applause)

ANOTHER MAN IN AUDIENCE: I would like to know whether you would want to change the immigration quotas: Increase them, decrease them, leave them the same?

GARY BAUER: I think back of my time in Newport, Kentucky, when I was growing up. It was a tough, blue-collar town, and I remember in elementary school we would all stand in line to get milk. And then the school bully would come along and get in the front of the line and nobody could do anything about it because he was bigger than anybody else. Well, we have millions of people around the world that are standing in line to get into the United States. They see it as that shining city on a hill that the Founding Fathers talked about and that Ronald Reagan reminded us of all the time. They're playing by the rules, they're abiding by the law, and we allow countless people to butt into the front of the line, to pour across our borders and have as their first act as entering our country the violation of our laws. We must secure our border. A great nation should not have borders that are unsecured; and I believe if we do that, then we can make a judgment as a people what the appropriate legal immigration levels ought to be.

ANOTHER WOMAN IN AUDIENCE: I'd really like to be able to ask this to the candidate who's not here but I can't do that. Mr. Forbes, as nominee of the Republican Party or as President, what would you do to keep the future nominations from being bought?

STEVE FORBES: Like you, I share the frustration that Governor Bush is not here tonight. He didn't come to a debate last week because he had a fund- raiser. A couple of weeks ago, his plane got delayed. He had a choice between a fund-raiser and going to a school in Rhode Island with underprivileged kids. He chose the fund-raiser. So perhaps in the future at a forum like this-- if we call it a fund-raiser-- he might show up. (Laughter) But seriously, to get to your question, we should have a system in America where individuals can give as much as they want to a candidate as long as there is full and prompt disclosure. The establishment loves these current rules because, unless you are blest like me with independent resources, they have ways of shutting you out and all 67,000 lobbyists in Washington -- they have all rallied around Governor Bush; they want a coronation, not a real contest, and that's fundamentally wrong.

MODERATOR: We want to ask each of you, do you favor a flat tax? If so, at exactly what rate? And I'm going to begin on the left with Senator Hatch.

SEN. ORRIN HATCH: Well, naturally, I favor throwing out the current system and getting rid of this awful IRS Code. In fact, if I had my way, we'd get rid of the IRS and come up with the most fair, simple, decent, honorable system we can have. But I'll tell you something, I worry about a flat tax because I'm on the Senate Finance Committee. And I can tell you, we spend a lot of time just figuring out where all these little things go. And it's just a natural propensity in Congress to see us add more and more to that tax code until we satisfy just about every citizen in America. And it's killing our country.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: Sure I'm for a flat tax. I'm for a tax system where average Americans can fill out their taxes on a postcard and send it in, and not have the fear of an audit. But, my dear friends, do you know why the tax code is 44,000 pages long? Do you know why it's a nightmare, a chamber of horrors for average citizens and a cornucopia of good deals for the special interests? The special interests rule in Washington. The big money, the huge six- and seven-figure contributions that come in, that every time we pass a tax bill we add another special loophole and a special deal for the special interests. I'm for reform. I'm for reform of education, reforming the military, reforming the tax code. My dear friends, that's not possible. That's not possible when average Americans are no longer represented in Washington, DC. And I will fight to the last breath I draw to eliminate the influence of special interests in the tax code and every other part of America, and I will not rest until I give the government back to you. Thank you. (Applause)

MODERATOR: Ambassador Keyes.

ALAN KEYES: The income tax is a form of taxation that was advocated by Marx and Lenin because it cedes, in principle, to the government control of every last dollar that is made or earned in the economy. Think about it. And this country was not founded with an income tax. The founders put in the Constitution provisions that made an income tax unconstitutional -- a direct tax on our people, government dipping directly into our pocket to spend our money before we get a chance to say anything about it. The issue isn't the tax rate and the issue isn't whether it's flat or progressive. The issue is the income tax itself. I am an abolitionist; shouldn't surprise you. (Laughter) I think that just as we had to get rid of chattel slavery in the last century, we need to get rid of tax slavery at the end of the 20th century so our children in the 21st will have control of every last dollar they earn. And the government won't get a say in what is done with that money until after they deal with it and then, in the open marketplace, you put a sales tax on transactions in that marketplace.

MODERATOR: Ambassador Keyes, thank you very much. Mr. Bauer.

GARY BAUER: I grew up in a home where my father was a janitor. I'm used to having bills last till Friday when the paycheck only lasted till Thursday. And so my flat tax proposal recognizes that the real wealth of America is in our families. I have a 16 percent across-the-board rate. You would be able to keep your mortgage deduction and your charitable deduction. And everybody would pay the 16 percent: The waitress and the corporation. Now, Steve has a plan that he'll elaborate on. But Steve has a major new write-off in his plan for big business. He allows the big corporations to write off the entire cost of their investments in the year that they make them.

STEVE FORBES: Well, this is a delightful evening...because when I ran four years ago, virtually every Republican denounced the idea of a flat tax. So education works. (Laughter) Some are slower than others, but they're coming along. (Laughter) Now, Gary, you are wrong. I give generous deductions and exemptions to each adult and each child. A family of four, a family of four, such as the Daley family in Exeter, New Hampshire, their first $41,000 of income is free of federal income tax; above the $41,000 level for the Daley family, only 17 cents on the dollar above $41,000; no tax on pensions; no tax on capital gains; and no death taxes. You'll be allowed to leave the world unmolested by the IRS...(Laughter)...sort of a new principle of taxation...no taxation without respiration. (Laughter) And as a businessman, as a businessman, I have incentives for investment. If you tell a farmer you can't recover the cost of your tractor, you ruin him. You tell a restaurant owner they can't recover the cost of the equipment, you ruin them. I provide for jobs. I provide a tax break for all. And I'm glad they're coming on board.

MODERATOR: Mr. Forbes, thank you very much. (Applause)

MODERATOR: That's it. Thanks to Dartmouth and to all of you.

FOCUS - POLITICAL WRAP

JIM LEHRER: Now, analysis of last night's Republican event as well as the Democrats' on Wednesday night. We get it from "Boston Globe" columnist Tom Oliphant, and David Brooks, senior editor at the "Weekly Standard." Mark Shields and Paul Gigot are both off tonight. First, last night's Republican event. Tom, what struck you as the most important thing that happened?

TOM OLIPHANT: The most... leaving Bush aside, for a second, leaving Governor Bush aside, John McCain has gone to ground in New Hampshire for the last month. Traveling all over the state, pushing very hard -- a different version of what he's been saying in the last several months; namely, that reform can be a conservative word. And people saw it last night I think in a larger audience for the first time and also saw somebody really working for it now. McCain is sometimes a laidback figure. But on Thursday night he was a wired figure. He was working for it. And I think after it was all over, most of the talk was about him.

JIM LEHRER: You agree, David?

DAVID BROOKS: Yes. I think it was. I would say the most important thing was that George W. (Bush) slept in his bed in Austin and didn't come up there, because there are two things the Republicans want answered from the debates. The first one is how lightweight is George W. Bush? Can he take the pressure? He wasn't there to answer that question. The second is something Tom referred to, which is that John McCain and George Bush too are trying to move the party away from New Gingrich and Dick Armey and Barry Goldwater - that whole movement of conservatism which was an antigovernment movement - that's something McCain and Bush are moving away from. What they talk about is limited but energetic government. They talk about using government in an affirmative way and a conservative way. They talk about restoring faith in public service. What they're doing is they're going back to a Teddy Roosevelt, Abraham Lincoln style of Republicanism. Teddy Roosevelt said I'm the hero of San Juan Hill; only you can trust me to reform government, to take the on those special interests. Well, who's saying that today? That's John McCain. So - just if I could finish, Steve Forbes came to the debate yesterday armed to the teeth to take this on. He was going to call it tax-and-spend conservatism. But because Bush wasn't there and because the way the questions were asked, he didn't get a chance to launch that argument but it's an argument the Republican Party has to have.

TOM OLIPHANT: Indeed before the debate, the many people who are well paid by the Forbes campaign were circulating these rather large tomes documenting sins of spending and taxation by Governor Bush...

JIM LEHRER: In Texas?

TOM OLIPHANT: Yes, as governor. And then just not delivered. Whereas McCain came to that debate armed with stuff he was going to put out, which he then did. And I was struck, not just by him, but by some of the others about how thoroughly put together their campaigns are intellectually at this point. And that is a distinction with Governor Bush, I would argue at this point.

JIM LEHRER: What do you mean, Tom?

TOM OLIPHANT: Well, McCain on taxes I think would be a good example last night. He's saying, look, that thing that passed Congress and Clinton vetoed a month or two ago, half of it was just special interest garbage that weighed it down. If you have real reform, you won't have those special interest goodies in a tax cut bill; you'll have rate cuts for people. That was his message. Reform can work for conservatives. Governor Bush is still a ways away from even having a position on taxes.

DAVID BROOKS: I'm not sure I agree with that. I think he has given speeches which were tremendously effective and intellectually coherent, Governor Bush. What he said he - I stand for governing conservatism -- not the opposition conservatism of Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey, not the no, no, no. He said I stand for using government. He and McCain both say that, but they say it in different spheres. Bush is more comfortable talking about education, charity, poverty programs, using government very specifically in those areas. McCain is less comfortable talking about that; he's more comfortable talking about national reform, international activism.

JIM LEHRER: What about the fight that's going on to the right of those two men, essentially between Forbes and Bauer at this point? How did that appearance last night affect that, do you think?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, the amazing thing, the first... let's talk about the context. This was a party run by the conservative movement, by the Goldwaterites three years ago. The two major candidates, the two top contenders are not in the tradition - McCain and Bush are not in that Goldwater tradition. Bauer and Forbes are fighting for that tradition. And I would say on the conservative buzz over the past year, over the past few weeks, has been the fall of Steve Forbes. He's been running for office for five years. He spent $60 million. He's at 4 percent nationally, he's almost nowhere in New Hampshire. He's slightly above Bauer and Keyes and Hatch, and so they're fighting over what is turning out to be a small rump. And I think Bauer is doing quite a good job in part because Forbes is bleeding -- just interest among his true believers is bleeding.

TOM OLIPHANT: There is a substantive element, I think, to it as well. Bauer's economic version of flat tax is a little bit more populist, a little bit more aimed downscale. You could almost sense last night him aiming for what's left of the Pat Buchanan vote in 1996. Listen to what he said on education... immigration rather -

JIM LEHRER: That is a Pat Buchanan issue.

TOM OLIPHANT: Indeed, very much so. But it's at the margins and you can feel it there. There is this incredible prosperity in New Hampshire. This is not an angry state the way it was eight years ago. And I think the politics on the Republican side reflects that.

JIM LEHRER: Speaking in pure political terms now, what does the fact that George W. Bush was not there last night, what does that mean and how does that hurt Bush, if at all?

TOM OLIPHANT: Well, this is the third or fourth element running in a story running for four weeks now. You don't come here enough. They say that in Iowa too; when you come, you don't say much. Your positions aren't that fleshed out in the sense that they make sense to an individual voter. And you got to start working for it. Now he can change all that in a New York minute. But there has been...

JIM LEHRER: A New Hampshire minute.

TOM OLIPHANT: New Hampshire minute, it takes longer. That's about 95 seconds, I think, the last I heard. So he can change it. But the dynamic for the last month has been one thing after another and really for the last week all he communicated in New Hampshire was why he wasn't coming.

JIM LEHRER: Does he hurt himself?

DAVID BROOKS: Yes. I think he has. First, it's a sign is he too smug? And in New Hampshire, they're only allowed to be smug. No one else is allowed to be smug in New Hampshire. But, secondly because he needs practice. The guy has not been out debating. There were some weird questions last night about marijuana, industrial hemp or whatever.

JIM LEHRER: And more are coming.

DAVID BROOKS: NASA -- you need practice. So, he needs some help on that. Finally, he is going to show up and debate finally, and when that comes, us media types are going to be there in force. And if he had shown up at all, no individual debate would be so important. But if he only shows up at a few, each one is mammoth. And a mistake there becomes catastrophic.

JIM LEHRER: The Democrats -- your analysis of how Gore did the other night, David.

DAVID BROOKS: I'm a little outside what I see the polls are today. I thought Bradley wiped the floor with him. I thought Bradley said - came out and said, I'm a grown-up guy. I'm sitting here telling you what I believe. Al Gore struck me, he took the focus group Viagra...and he just came out and said -

JIM LEHRER: What? You said focus group Viagra?

DAVID BROOKS: Yes. Somebody compared him to an animal that had been caged up, and they let him loose, and he was oozing empathy and doing these cheap tricks. I thought the trick of staying later after the cameras and going on for another 90 minutes, somebody said it looked like a kid who volunteers for more homework. I though it just looks artificial. And that plays into the line the Bradley people have been pitching, which is that he's the authentic candidate and Gore is the synthetic candidate. Bradley is dull but dignified, Gore is Cheese Whiz. And I think that debate to me, that underlined that Bradley line.

JIM LEHRER: Tom.

TOM OLIPHANT: That's a lot of certainty which I can't match.

JIM LEHRER: Try.

TOM OLIPHANT: A little bit more agnostic, perhaps. Maybe as a little clue to what I thought was happening. You know, everybody gets asked who's your favorite President. That's a standard one. I don't know if Bush is ready for it, but these guys get it all the time.

JIM LEHRER: He better say... (laughter among group)...

TOM OLIPHANT: Exactly. That's easy. But Senator Bradley has always for some obscure reason excluded James K. Polk in his pantheon of heroes. And on Wednesday night James K. Polk was hissing. And I'm thinking why is that? I think he is beginning to realize that he is the favorite in New Hampshire and perhaps in the Northeast, and he's adjusting to it a little bit awkwardly. And I think his own people had a little problem with his performance Wednesday night because they thought he might have been a little stiff and a little bit standoffish.

JIM LEHRER: But is that the natural Bill Bradley?

THOMAS PICKERING: Mostly. I didn't think he was as engaged in the audience as he is in his meetings when you almost feel like you're having a conversation with him. It's that intimate and successful...a little less so Wednesday night. Gore, people could see what's going on for the last six weeks. It appears to have stabilized the situation in New Hampshire. One reason I shrink from David's certainty here....

DAVID BROOKS: I said I was outside the mainstream.

TOM OLIPHANT: You know - I hear what you're saying and I think it's entirely valid. What holds me back is that I have experienced some of this Gore - these Gore meetings. They can go on for two or three hours. I mean, he stays until the last question is asked. It could be UFO's, it could be paving roads in northern New Hampshire. He'll just stay. And some people in the national press had an opportunity Wednesday night to actually see what this is like. You walked into that room afterwards. He sat there for two hours on the stage with his stage dangling over -- with his wife, just having a conversation. And it works. There is a personal connection that goes on. And it is a different kind of relationship between Gore and voters than there was, say in September. What's different is that this is a close race. It feels like Ford-Reagan in 1976. And that's what holds me back from saying one of them is pulling way out in front.

JIM LEHRER: But are the two of you are talking from two different perspectives? You're talking about the way they project on television. You're talking about the way they project close-up - in other words, retail-wholesale.

TOM OLIPHANT: Well, yes, except the coverage of Gore in New Hampshire and Iowa is more intimate, also and I think that accounts for some of the stabilizing that's gone on.

JIM LEHRER: Do you agree, David, with what Tom said, that the race feels close?

DAVID BROOKS: Oh, absolutely. I mean the polls are now within four or five points. And you can sense it in the way Gore is attacking. His people clearly think he's best on the attack. To me, again it's a little weird. It's like watching an eagle scout trying to mug somebody. I don't find him persuasive. But I think the thing they know is that he can't be defensive. And there's also the question of how much Bradley wants this. If the race gets nasty, Bradley's always been this aloof guy. Is he really going to fight back?

TOM OLIPHANT: Example.

JIM LEHRER: Save for another time. Thank you both, gentlemen.

FOCUS - MORNING NEWS WARS

JIM LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight, the morning news wars and the president of Nigeria.

JIM LEHRER: Media Correspondent Terence Smith has the morning news story.

TERENCE SMITH: For the past five months, CBS News has been getting ready to do battle. Its weapon... a 30 million dollar state of the art street level studio in the heart of New York City. Next week, the network will launch a fresh assault in the high-stakes morning news television wars. This week veteran anchor Bryant Gumbel and newcomer Jane Clayson led a parade of press around their new set. A lot of work remained to be done to get it ready by 7 AM Monday, when they plan to broadcast live from this pricey piece of real estate on Fifth Avenue. A few blocks away, other familiar faces are already dueling in the Disneyesque precincts of Times Square.

CHARLIE GIBSON: I just want you to know, I'm not running for anything.

TERENCE SMITH: Charlie Gibson and Diane Sawyer of ABC getting up close and personal with their indoor audience at Good Morning America's new glass-walled, street-level venue...

MATT LAUER: I'm Matt Lauer along with Katie Couric and we've come down to check these people out.

TERENCE SMITH: And NBC's Today Show hosts sharing face time with folks gathered outside their famous sidewalk studio in Rockefeller Center.

STEVE FRIEDMAN: It's going to be a full-fledged, three-way war. Three-way wars are a lot more fun than two-way wars, I think.

TERENCE SMITH: Executive producer Steve Friedman spent 10 years at the Today Show, helping raise it to the top of the morning news heap, where it remains today. Now CBS News is counting on him to lift its perennial also-ran morning show into the thick of the competition.

Katie Couric and Matt Lauer, the hosts of the Today Show, responded to Friedman's battle cry.

KATIE COURIC: It's television, I hardly would describe it as war. If it's war, I'm not a soldier in it.

MATT LAUER: It is war, I guess in a financial sense. I mean there's a lot at stake. The morning's are hot.

STEVE FRIEDMAN: The way the marketplace is right now on morning television, it's the only time in network television where the total audience is growing. Morning television is the new frontier, the new war, the new way networks can make their move on news.

TERENCE SMITH: Indeed they can. In the last five years the number of American homes with television sets in use from 7 AM to 9 AM has grown 11 percent. The Today Show alone has 34 percent more viewers than it had five years ago.

RICHARD HACK: You have people who get up at the same time or even earlier now because they have longer commutes, there is more traffic. They have less time to scrub their face and fill their dog dish. And they want their news, they want their information before they leave the house, so when they go to the office and stand around the water cooler they're informed.

TERENCE SMITH: Author Richard Hack, a former columnist for TV Guide, has written "Madness in the Morning," an account of the 45-year competition among the morning

news broadcasts. He notes that while the morning news audience is growing, the evening audience is shrinking ...substantially

RICHARD HACK: That audience has decreased. And it has decreased not only because people have these longer commutes; sometimes they don't make it back home in time for the evening news, but because when they do get home, they have more time to look at cable, to look at the Internet; to have any number of distractions that previously weren't even in existence.

TERENCE SMITH: And there is network gold to be mined in the morning.

TERENCE SMITH: The economic stakes for Good Morning America and the other network news shows in the morning are huge, they share a gross revenue pool of about 600 million dollars worth of advertising; if one of these can increase it's ratings by one point it brings in an extra $70 million in revenue. Steve Friedman says that CBS realizes in order to be competitive as a network overall they must be a player in the morning.

STEVE FRIEDMAN: The fact is, financially, the difference between being first and third in the evening might be 15 to 18 million dollars. Financially, the difference between being first and third in the morning is $150 million. That's why Diane Sawyer's there. That's why Bryant Gumbel came back. That's why NBC pays Katie Couric 6 or 7 million dollars. That's why people at CBS would invest tens of millions of dollars in a street level studio, just to get us on the playing field.

TERENCE SMITH: If CBS does even modestly well in the morning, it will quickly make back the tens of millions it spent building this new studio and begin to amortize Bryant Gumbel's five-million-dollar a year salary.

TERENCE SMITH: Gumbel, who recently anchored the failed prime time CBS newsmagazine Public Eye, concedes that the stakes are high.

BRYANT GUMBEL: Look, I'm aware that CBS has a considerable investment in this. I'm aware that there are people who are going to be anxious to, to see how the Bryant Gumbel on CBS compares with the Bryant Gumbel of, of NBC years.

TERENCE SMITH: Gumbel has always been a lightening rod in the morning. His fans see him as a probing interviewer, his critics as arrogant. Steve Friedman is familiar with both reactions.

STEVE FRIEDMAN: Bryant Gumbel is a different kind of television performer//Most people on television, no matter who they are, do say to the audience, "I want you to like me." Bryant does not. Bryant says to the audience, "I want you to respect me." He never asks the audience to like him. He'll never have a Sally Field moment.

TERENCE SMITH: Over the last four decades, morning news has changed -- but not a lot. The Today Show debuted in 1952 with the garrulous Dave Garroway, paired at one point with J. Fred Muggs, the chimp. CBS soon followed with newsman Walter Cronkite, aided and abetted by a puppet Lion, Charlemagne......the morning shows have always been a mix of news, features and low-rent entertainment.

TERENCE SMITH: The Today Show pioneered the latest "New Big Thing" -- the Streetside

Studio -- 40 years ago.

JACK LESCOULIE: All these people out here are all going to work , I think. They may be late too as a matter of fact, but they're on 49th Street right outside our communications center here.

TERENCE SMITH: Reinventing itself, the Today Show brought the street level view back in 1994. The broadcast quickly pulled into first place and has remained there for 200-plus weeks. Good Morning America felt it needed a face-lift too. This fall it rolled out its own state of the art studio. Anchor Diane Sawyer likes the interaction with the audience.

DIANE SAWYER: It's automatic energy. It's orange juice. It's a B-12 shot, to have people wandering in off the street, and they look up, and there you are, and maybe Garth Brooks is singing or a camel is -- had too much fiber. Anything can be happening in the morning when they're going by.

TERENCE SMITH: Charles Gibson says that Good Morning America has evolved into something very different from what he first started doing nearly 13 years ago

CHARLES GIBSON: It is a much more spontaneous broadcast. It is off script. It's basically what's going through your head at the moment, and it's also pushing toward a little bit more high energy, and that's the reason for these changes in sets.

TERENCE SMITH: Sawyer seems to revel in the more relaxed venue of morning television. Here she watches underwear model Antonio Sabato demonstrate his fitness with a two finger push-up... and when the cameras stop rolling, she tries it herself, in front of a live audience.

(SAWYER ATTEMPTING PUSH-UP)

TERENCE SMITH: But what about CBS? Even with its new studio and a familiar face in Bryant Gumbel and a fresh face in Jane Clayson, can the network rise from its perennial third place status in the morning?

BILL CARROLL: Who else is going to be part of the cast?

TERENCE SMITH: Bill Carroll of the Katz Television Group is not so sure. He advises

network-affiliated stations on programming. Most CBS affiliates, he says, are making money with their own local news broadcasts in the crucial seven-to-eight o'clock hour.

BILL CARROLL: One of the big hurdles they're going to have to face is in the most recent CBS morning incarnation, a number of their stations established a 7:00 to 8:00 AM local presence, and a very successful local presence, and in many of those markets, they're going to take a "wait and see" attitude on the Bryant Gumbel effort, and so coming out of the box they have that as a hurdle."

TERENCE SMITH: Doesn't that condemn the new CBS effort to lower ratings, if many of it's affiliates won't even clear the hour between 7:00 and 8:00 in the morning?

BILL CARROLL: Yeah, it's going to be a problem.

TERENCE SMITH: What are you going to recommend to your clients, the affiliates?

BILL CARROLL: Leave the local news that's working at 7:00 o'clock, and run the new Bryant Gumbel Early Show at 8:00 o'clock.

TERENCE SMITH: CBS reported this week that three-quarters of its affiliates plan

To carry the new broadcast in its entirety. Bryant Gumbel says the key to overcoming the remaining affiliate reluctance is, well, news.

BRYANT GUMBEL: Our first half-hour is going to be as hard a news half-hour as there is on television and as comprehensive a, a news half-hour as there is on television because we firmly believe, that if you don't deliver the news you lose -- plain and simple.

TERENCE SMITH: Beyond news, Friedman says he is prepared to cut special deals to book high-profile, marquee guests... deals such as promising multiple appearances, a kind of journalistic horse-trading that the Today Show recently renounced.

TERENCE SMITH: So, you're ready to deal?

STEVE FRIEDMAN: I'm ready to deal. And the Today Show says they're not going to deal. They won't deal unless they're forced to. Maybe they will, maybe they won't.

TERENCE SMITH: Katie Couric says they won't.

KATIE COURIC: I think deal making is very dangerous in this business.

TERENCE SMITH: Why?

KATIE COURIC: Because you can be held hostage by a movie company, a publicist, an actor or actress, an author who obviously wants maximum air time but it gets into the editorial decision-making where it's inappropriate. You know, you're doing eight parts on a movie that frankly ain't very good or doesn't deserve that much national airtime.

TERENCE SMITH: The Today Show displayed its draw for top talent and willingness to pounce this week, when it scooped up singer Mariah Carey. CBS had planned to kick off The Early Show with a Carey concert outside their studio on Fifth Avenue. When they failed to get permits in time for Carey's deadline, she bolted to the Today Sow.

MATT LAUER: There are going to be some ferocious, behind-the-scenes battles for the top names.

TERENCE SMITH: Beyond the booking wars, there is the content of the show itself. Will the hard news approach work for CBS? Author Richard Hack has his doubts.

RICHARD HACK: The idea that CBS has for The Early Show is to make it more edgy, hard news type of broadcast. Bryant Gumbel works very well in that type of format and of

course CBS has a lot of history doing that kind of show. Unfortunately, nobody has remembered that it doesn't work. What happens with that kind of program is that you get people to tune in, they expect to see the Today Show, they expect to see Good Morning America, what they get is CNN. If they wanted CNN, they would tune in CNN.

TERENCE SMITH: But Bryant Gumbel thinks his prospects --and those of CBS -- have never been brighter.

BRYANT GUMBEL: I'm going into this, obviously, expecting to do well, and hoping to do well, but I'm not going to slit my wrists, you know?

TERENCE SMITH: Perhaps not. But executives at CBS News -- and the other cash-strapped news divisions -- recognize that the morning time slot is their best opportunity to build audiences and in the process, prop up the bottom line.

CONVERSATION

JIM LEHRER: Finally tonight, the visit of Nigeria's new leader to Washington. Ray Suarez has that story.

RAY SUAREZ: Early this year, for the first time in 15 years, Nigerians chose their president, and nearly 30 million citizens cast ballots that ended 16 years of military rule in the West African nation. Nigeria, about twice the size of California, was once on the road to becoming a wealthy nation. It's one of the world's top oil producers. But for years, corrupt governments and businesses have been accused of siphoning off much of the wealth. Most of Nigeria's 110 million people live in poverty. During military rule, political repression in Nigeria drew intense criticism. And the 1995 hanging of poet and human rights crusader Ken Siro- Wiwa and several others brought international pressure to penalize Nigeria. International bodies voted to sanction the country, but were largely ineffective. But after the death of General Sani Abacha, the country's military rulers agreed to an election. The winner was a former military ruler, General Olusegun Obasanjo, now in traditional garb instead of army green. Obasanjo served as president in the late 70's. He voluntarily relinquished power in 1979 to a civilian government that was later overthrown by the military. Obasanjo spent three years in prison for criticizing military rule. Despite allegations of vote fraud, international monitors called the elections fair. The mood was festive when Obasanjo came forward to greet the nation.

OLUSEGUN OBASANJO: The people of Nigeria have made their choice. I am humbled by the fact that I, Olusegun Obasanjo, am that choice.

RAY SUAREZ: During his campaign, Obasanjo promised that his government would fight the corruption that made millionaires out of military cronies, and makes his country frightening to investors. President Clinton after yesterday's talks with the new Nigerian leader, backed up his call for increased aid, and some forgiveness of Nigeria's crushing debt.

PRESIDENT CLINTON: President Obasanjo's election in May has signaled a new day for Nigeria, and a new hope for Africa. It is very much in America's interests that Nigeria succeed, and therefore we should assist them in their success. We intend to increase our assistance to Nigeria, to expand law enforcement cooperation and to work toward an agreement to stimulate trade and investment between us. We intend to do what we can to help Nigeria recover assets plundered by the previous regime. But we must do more to realize the promise of this moment for Nigeria and for Africa.

RAY SUAREZ: President Obasanjo says, if he doesn't pass power to an elected civilian after his term, he will have failed. During an interview this morning he stressed his country's progress and America's interests in Africa's success.

RAY SUAREZ: In recent speeches you've talked about Nigeria as being a potentially great country. Certainly it's always been a potentially rich country. President Clinton yesterday talked about relieving some of the debt burden of heavily indebted countries. But oil prices are low right now. How can you sort of get the engine of the economy going?

PRESIDENT OLUSEGUN OBASANJO: Well, President Clinton got it right when he said that taking the economic and social indicators as they are today, Nigeria is potentially a rich country but as of today is a poor country. If you like, you may even say it's not that poor a country because the riches are there in its human resources. And natural resources are good -- but it is an impoverished country. As long as Nigeria has to be at the bottom of the excessive debt that hangs over its head now, so long will it not be able to come out or to actualize its potential. So what we are saying is that for Nigeria to actualize it's potential it needs a lifeline, and the lifeline is to help us out of its bottom of pit.

RAY SUAREZ: One of the popular slogans here in Washington when you talk about Africa is "trade, not aid." Doesn't Nigeria need both?

PRESIDENT OLUSEGUN OBASANJO: Fact, Africa needs both. Before you can trade, you have to be in a position to prepare what you, the ware that will you trade in; and to prepare the ware that will you trade in, you need to be helped -- and that is the initial aid -- to be helped in a position of skill, to be helped in education, to be helped even in the simple thing of how do you package what you want to trade in, the product, how is it packaged? Where do you look for market? How do you advertise? All these will need to learn and in learning those -- what I call the nuts and bolts -- you need assistance. That's where the aid comes before trade; but yes, trade not aid. But I will say a little bit of aid, which will then assist -- a little bit of aid, which will then assist trade.

RAY SUAREZ: Nigerian troops have been in several countries in West Africa in recent years; the region has had many troubles. As we watch your country move into a new era trying to solve some of it's own problems internally, could we expect that Nigeria will look inward and be less involved in its region?

PRESIDENT OLUSEGUN OBASANJO: No, we won't look inward. I believe that we have a responsibility beyond our borders for peace and stability in our sub-region, indeed, in our region, and that's the reason why we must be strong internally -- politically stable - strong-- and economically vibrant and buoyant.

RAY SUAREZ: Mr. President, in recent decades Americans have become quite used to bad news - a steady stream of bad news from Africa. But there's much bright news, too: Two big democracies, Nigeria and South Africa, new on the horizon; big regional powers in their parts of the continent. How does that change what happens in the other countries that are neighbors of you both?

PRESIDENT OLUSEGUN OBASANJO: Well, bad news. I think I will not want America to be ignored so that they expect that there can be no good news from any part of the world. In fact, America must make effort to ensure that good news comes from all parts of the world as much as possible. But having said that, the situation in South Africa and Nigeria must give great hope to the two countries, citizens of the two countries, and to Africans generally, and to the world in particular.

RAY SUAREZ: Now that there is an elected government in your country, are you more able to reach out to other parts of the continent, to be welcome in other places around the world, than perhaps General Abacha had been and his government?

PRESIDENT OLUSEGUN OBASANJO: Naturally. The international community stood firm and supported Nigerians through a turning to fight against tyranny and of oppression of military differences with Abacha. And when that struggle was successfully reached, the international community became more receptive to the new dispensation and the new leadership in Nigeria. And we are grateful to them for that and we are grateful to God, and we are grateful to our own citizens who, out of sheer determination, stood firm and said, "no," and no matter what it cost them. And it cost some of our compatriots their lives. It cost some of us our freedom. It cost some other form of deprivation. But in the end, the Nigerians won.

RAY SUAREZ: When you yourself were in jail, many of your country men and women were killed, many people are poor. It must be difficult to ask for patience when people have done without for a long time. They know that even though they have no electricity, in many places, running water, that ten or twenty miles away there are people with laptop computers and Mercedes Benzes. How do you keep them on the road and looking forward to the future?

PRESIDENT OLUSEGUN OBASANJO: Now, there is really nothing like hope. When people have hope, they have almost, they can have anything, and they can wait for anything. It's when there is no hope that you are frustrated out of this world. What has happened in Nigeria today is that the expectations are high. People who have been deprived, people who have been suppressed, they now have these freedoms. They breathe new fresh air and they are seeing things that are happening, and they can wait. If five months ago if you had to queue for twenty-four hours at the petrol station to get fuel, and today we don't have to do that -- we can drive in and drive out - that is the feeling that is pervading the air in Nigeria today, the feeling of high expectation and hope that -- not futile expectation and hope, but expectation that can see result, and therefore is fruitful expectation.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Mr. President, I want to thank you for giving us some of your time today.

PRESIDENT OLUSEGUN OBASANJO: Thank you very much.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the major stories of this Friday: President Clinton proposed new rules to protect patients' privacy, the first federal regulations designed to keep computerized medical records confidential. And Russia rejected international calls for diplomacy and launched a new wave of attacks in Chechnya. We'll see you on-line, and again here Monday evening. Have a nice weekend. I'm Jim Lehrer.