The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer; October 20, 2006

I'm Jim Lara, today's news, Iraqi police versus the militias, the Iraq issue in Florida, shields and brooks, and the U.S. base in Kyrgyzstan, all tonight on the news hour. Good evening, I'm Jim Lara.

On the news hour tonight, the news of this Friday, then the latest from Iraq on the battles between militias and Iraqi police, a choice is those six report by Margaret Warner on how the Iraq war is influencing an election campaign in Florida, the weekly analysis of Mark Shields and David Brooks, and the story of life on a remote military base in Kyrgyzstan. Major funding for the news hour with Jim Lara is provided by, there's a company that builds more than a million vehicles a year in places called Indiana and Kentucky, one that has 10 plants from the foothills of West Virginia to the Pacific coastline.

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possible by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, and by contributions to your PBS station from viewers like you. Thank you. President Bush talked today of a possible change in tactics in Iraq. He told the Associated Press he would consult with top commanders within days. He said, we are constantly adjusting our tactics, and right now it's tough. A White House spokesman said, overall, U.S. policy would stay the same. 75 Americans and hundreds of Iraqis have been killed this month. There was trouble in southern Iraq today. 800 Shiite militiamen seized the city of Amara and held it briefly before withdrawing. They were followers of radical cleric, Muktata Al-Sautar, but it was unclear if he knew of the assault in advance. The gunman blew up police stations and set fire to cars, at least 25 Iraqis were killed in the clashes with nearly 60 others wounded.

British troops turned over the city to Iraqi control last August, and Washington today Defense Secretary Rumsfeld insisted that was not a strategic mistake. The biggest mistake would be to not pass things over to the Iraqis, created dependency on their part, and instead of developing strength and capacity and competence, and it's critically important, that it's their country. They're going to have to govern it. They're going to have to provide security for it, and they're going to have to do it sooner rather than later. And that means they've got to take pieces of it as we go along. Well, I'm moral in this story right after the news summary. Elsewhere in Iraq, gunmen linked to Al-Qaeda paraded in four towns in the West today. Earlier this week, there was a march in Ramadi, with up to 60 insurgents taking part. A militant Sunni group that includes Al-Qaeda has announced it's setting up an Islamic state in six of the 18 Iraqi provinces. The UN Refugee Agency reported today more than 900,000 Iraqis have fled their home since

the war began. More than a third left this year, as violence between Shiites and Sunnis flared, many crossed into other countries, but most remained inside Iraq. The UN Agency warned the overall number of refugees may be even higher than the estimate. There were signs today, North Korea, might try to lower tensions over its nuclear program. South Korean reports said the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il told a Chinese diplomat he is sorry about the nuclear test last week. The reports came, a Secretary of State Rice was in China, and we have a report on the days – the days developments – from Lindsay Hillsam of Independent Television News. Here is the key person the U.S. Secretary of State met today with Chinese envoy Tang Joshua, who had just returned from North Korea. He said his visit hadn't been in vain. Other reports suggest that Kim Jong-il promised him not to conduct another nuclear test.

A different message on North Korean TV today, they said a hundred thousand people gathered in Kim Il-Sung Square to hail the success of the historic nuclear test. Customs inspectors drilling in the Chinese border town of Dan Dong trade continues over the friendship bridge. Chinese businessmen told us the embassy in Pyongyang had warned them to leave North Korea as the day before the nuclear test, they're worried. Trump drivers queue for border control. Some say trade has already dropped off. In the past few days, China is reported to have restricted banking transactions and even threatened to cut off oil supplies. Also today, North Korea's chief nuclear negotiator told ABC News, his country hopes to return to six nation talks. In response, Secretary Rice said it's too soon to tell that the North Koreans are really serious.

In the U.S. midterm election campaign, U.S. Supreme Court today allowed the state of Arizona to make people show photo IDs when they vote next month. The law is aimed at illegal immigrants. The court said it will stand for this election. Federal courts will decide a challenge to it later. A Wisconsin man was charged today with making false threats against pro football stadiums. Twenty-year-old Jake Brahms surrendered to federal agents in Milwaukee. The targets in the Internet hoax included stadiums in Atlanta, Miami, Cleveland, the New York City area, Houston, Oakland, and Seattle. The message is warned of bombs containing radioactive material to be exploded this Sunday. OPEC announced today it will cut output by 1.2 million barrels a day. But oil prices fell anyway amid doubts the cartel could stick to its new quotas. In New York trading, the price tumbled nearly $1.70 to settle under $57 a barrel. That was down more than 2 percent, and the lowest close since last November.

On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 9 points to close at $12,02. The Nasdaq rose a point to close at $23.42. For the week, the Dow gained three-tenths of a percent, the Nasdaq fell six-tenths. And that's it for the news summary tonight. Now another bloody day in Iraq. Iraq is a political issue in Florida, shields and brooks, and life on a faraway U.S. base. That escalating violence in southern Iraq, Jeffrey Brown spoke by telephone earlier today with James Hiter of the London Times in Baghdad. James, the latest report we had was that Maudi Army militiamen had seized control of Amara and then withdrawn. Can you add to that in terms of the immediate situation whether fighting continues and who's in control of the city now?

Well, the fighting does appear to have calmed down this evening. The Iraqi government has sent in about 600 extra soldiers and policemen to back up the police who've fled their police stations earlier in the day. The result seems to be partly because Mokkatar al-Sada has sent some envoys asking his people to restrain themselves and to calm the situation down. Also, the government in Baghdad sent a ministerial-level team to negotiate a ceasefire. Set the scene a little bit for us, tell us about this town. This is a city that British forces left only two months ago. Why did they leave and what's happened there since? Well, the British, less they're called Abu Naji which was in the centre of Amara in August. They said that they were repositioning to go along the Iranian border and have desert patrols along the border to stop weapons, mudlers coming across from Iran. In fact, they were being morted heavily every day. I spoke to a British soldier who said that basically that camp was like a bullseye in the

middle of Amara and they were being morted from a distance of nine or ten kilometres. They were taking constant fire for a very long period of time. British officers have in the past compared this to the most sustained fire that British forces have received in the Korean War. They've pulled out, they're now down on the Iranian border, controlled in the desert. But that was claimed as a victory by the Macdiani militia who had been firing these morters and that has certainly encouraged the activity of the militias in the area when the British pulled out of their camp that the camp was basically stripped by looters and the Iraqi forces who had moved in did nothing to prevent them. And this was all in bold and the militias to try their hand and then this latest dispute has actually triggered a full-out battle. So tell us about this latest dispute. What set it off? And is it in – it is in fact not just one militia but it sounds like it's several Shiite militias fighting each other.

Well, it's extremely complex because the Macdiani that seems fighting it way into these police stations and destroying them is the hold them to Mokkkarov Satter, who's a American for the American in two major battles in 2004. But the police force are mostly from the bad brigade. Now they're a militia which is run by the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. Now both the Satteras and the Supreme Council are the major blocs in the government of Noreal Maliki. If either one withdrew the government collapsed and the political process would effectively come to an end. So it's extremely difficult situation to resolve. But what happened was on Wednesday a roadside bomb killed Kasim Al-Kunini, who was the batter head of the police intelligence. He was killed by a roadside bomb. The batter core believed that the Macdiani was responsible for his death. So they kidnapped the brother of the Macdiani commander in the area and the Macdiani basically said you have to give him back or you have to get you and there was no resolution

to that. So hundreds of fighters came into Amara, they took over the police station. The police fled. The police stations were destroyed, we're hearing varying accounts where they were just and some people say that the explosives were put in the police station and they were flattened. And then fighting broke out across the city and for a while they had the Macdiani did a pit being controlled. There have been reports that British forces are standing by to perhaps go back in. What do you know about that and who would make that decision? I spoke to the British Army spokesman in Banza this afternoon. He said that they were putting together a force in Banza to go in. This would be about 500 men with helicopters. He said that they were waiting for the Iraqi Army to call for help explicitly. That call hasn't come yet. It doesn't appear that the Iraqi forces have managed to restore some semblance of order in Amara at the moment, but the British forces are there, they're waiting for the word to go in.

That would be extremely difficult. Obviously they could fight their way back in, but any losses they sustained would be extremely embarrassing given the situation with the British forces at the moment after the chief of staff last week said that Britain should be considering pulling out the stubborn Iraq and that the British force exacerbated the situation so that could be extremely awkward position for the British to find themselves in. And how representative is the situation in Amara to the general situation in the South where British forces were in control? Well, the problem with Amara and in the South, in general, is that the politics operate on several different levels. Some of them are infiltrating the police forces and some of them are tribal allegiances as well. You can have a whole tribe allied to one particular police chief. So when these disputes break out, when somebody is maybe assassinated for political reasons that becomes a tribal problem as well, and these are very difficult to resolve. This is no exception in the South.

What is happening? Perhaps the scale is different, but since the fall of Saddam, tribes have been setting their disputes by assassination and kidnapping, and it's quite standard for if somebody is killed and member of that tribe will be kidnapped and held until the killers are handed over and that's partly what's happening here. But what we're also seeing, which is extremely worrying for the South, is Shia on Shia violence, an extremely oil-rich region in the South, because most of the last week for a federal law that would see a devolution into autonomous regions, and the South would be Shia dominated. It's mostly Shia population, and it will control a vast amount of oil. So what we may be seeing here is a foreshadowing of any future power struggle in the South over who controls the oil revenue. This is also a smuggling town. There's a lot of money coming through from weapons, from oil smuggling, from drugs, smuggling.

Amara is on a main route between Basra and Baghdad, a strategically important route. So this may be a power struggle that is developing in the South between the two main Shia blocks. All right, James Heider of the Times of London, thank you very much. Thank you. Now a choice is those six report on how the Iraq War, among other issues, is impacting a tight house race in Florida. Margaret Warner has our story. 979 W.R. in there. It's going to be a busy hour here before 9 o'clock. We're going to be in Palm Beach, Florida these days. The Mark Foley scandal permeates not just the news, but drive time rock radio programs like the Jennifer and Danny show and its parody commercials. Sitting at my computer all day really dries out my skin, my fingers are dry and cracked from all the instant messages and emails.

But Republicans here aren't laughing. They're worried the fallout from Foley and other GOP FX scandals may cost them the disgraced former Florida lawmaker seat and that of his congressional next door neighbor Clay Shaw. Shaw came to Congress in the 1980 Reagan landslide. If he wins again, he could become chairman of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee. Right now the 67 year old Shaw, like many of his Republican colleagues, finds himself in the fight of his political life and he knows it. The problem that the Foley matter has brought about is that it's taken the good work that we've done, the accomplishments that we've done, the good news in the economy and a lot of the progress that we've made in Iraq. It takes that off the front page so that it covers it up. I am state center Ron Klein. Breathing down Shaw's neck is energetic, well funded Democratic state senator Ron Klein. He doesn't need to mention the Foley scandal in speeches or campaign ads.

But when asked, he says it's a symbol of the failed GOP leadership in Washington. Well, both parties may have bad apples, but the current scandals are mostly Republican scandals. Mr. Shaw is part of the leadership. He likes to talk about that all the time. He has to bear responsibility of the fact that the Republican leadership has in this case may have been involved in the cover up. The two-manner battling over one of the most hotly contested districts in Florida, the beautiful coastal 22nd. This mainly white, well-off district running along the water from Palm Beach to Fort Lauderdale was carefully redrawn by the Republican state legislature five years ago to protect Congressman Shaw. So Republicans do outnumber Democrats, but these Republicans tend to be moderate. There are plenty of independence, and John Kerry Beach, George Bush, here in 2004. All that may play Shaw attempting target for Democrats this year. Thank you.

Very nice to meet you. Thank you. Good luck in school. The 49-year-old Klein jumped into the race 20 months ago, and he's been hard at it ever since. He seeks out voters in neighborhoods where many voted for Shaw before, probing for a dissatisfaction with the Iraq War, the president, and their congressman. I would the fight against terrorism is not only in Baghdad. It's in about 60 countries now. Jim Kane, who heads the Florida voter polling group, says the Iraq War and President Bush's handling of it, is the overriding issue for this district's voters. There seems to be no end in sight in their mind, and they seem to believe that it's really been mismanaged and needlessly so. And that's the foundation for all the attitudes that we see in this district. Three and a half years, over $300 billion spent, thousands of American troops lost, and still Clay Shaw refuses to question George Bush's handling of the war in Iraq. In ad after ad, Klein ties Shaw to what he calls a failed policy in Iraq.

It's time for a change. This time, let's elect a congressman who will lead, not follow. Mr. Shaw's problem is that he continues to follow the president on this view that all the terrorists are in Iraq. He keeps saying, if we don't fight him in Baghdad, we're going to fight him in Boston. That is an incredibly naive for someone who claims to have all this experience. And just to stay the course in Iraq is not a plan. Stay the course is not a plan, and that's Mr. Shaw's plan. Congressman Shaw is not backing off his support for the war or the president's policy. Mr. opponent has said, Ron Klein has said, you've just been a rubber stamp for the president on the war. Would you say to that? Well, I don't know where he's coming from. He hasn't met with the generals. He hasn't been to Iraq. He certainly hasn't met with the president. He hasn't been in any time secret meetings. I'm not a rubber stamp for the president, but I do support our troops, and I support them very, very strongly.

Shaw is punching back in ads, too. Ron Klein is using our troops' sacrifice for his own political game. Mr. Klein, that's Ron. Our Congressman Clay Shaw voted for a better equipment, modern weapons, and a pay raise for our troops. How do I know? I got that raise. I'm a Marine. I was there. A major target in this clash over Iraq are the 20-25% of district voters who are Jewish. Many supported the war to start with, and Shaw has been a strong vote for Israel in Congress. So though Klein is Jewish, you can't count on automatically sweeping the Jewish vote, certainly not in upscale gated communities like Broken Sound Club in Boca Raton. There are a lot of closet Republicans here. Retired marketing manager Paul Garber says many retired Jewish business people here are conservatives like him. Yeah, I've decided to support Clay Shaw. I am a Republican, fairly conservative. He's been represented us, I thought, well, I am for the war, so that's one of the things

that would be an asset for me. The club resident Eleanor Weissman says the war has changed her mind about Congressman Shaw. I have voted for Clay Shaw before. I have been a registered Republican all my life, my voting days. I cannot vote for Republican now. What they're doing in this administration is very, very sad, and I have to vote against Clay Shaw. Boca Raton attorney Andrew Robbins, former president of the South Palm Beach County Jewish Federation, says unease with the president's foreign policies as a whole is making some Jewish voters rethink their support for him and for Shaw. I think that American Jews and South Florida Jews, just like the American community in general, are increasingly asking questions about how it is we got into Iraq, and even if you're a supporter of Israel, can't award an Iraq and in Afghanistan and all of the things that are going on with Iran, be helpful in terms of bringing peace and stability to the state

of Israel's first. Let's talk about Medicare. On the stump and in ads, the candidates are also raising issues that matter to the district's many seniors, like the Medicare prescription drug plan. Our Congress, many Clay Shaw Jr., but poster Cain says the more notable difference between the two men is stylistic. The polished, powerful, incumbent versus the scrappy time for change outsider. The difference is really other personalities and how they see things. Clay is very, very practical, very statesman-like, very comfortable in his own environment. He prefers going to structured events, events in which he's comfortable in. Clay is more of a populist type candidate. He is somebody enjoys going out, and meeting people in crowds, kissing babies, shaking hands. He likes to mix it with everyday people out in the district. It's just so valuable what's left and we've got to do what we can to keep it. The differences were apparent last weekend.

Shaw seemed in his element, touring a river restoration project in Jupiter. There wasn't an undecided voter in sight, but he listened patiently, as local officials asked him to help get federal dollars to expand the preserve. He's known as the man who saved the Everglades. Republican state senator Jeff Atwater says Shaw seniority, his history of delivering for his district, is his biggest asset. Independence and Democrats, Republicans alike, they embrace this man, they are grateful for this man's contribution. In our election day, I have no doubt that they're going to ask him to serve yet again. But at a community park picnic in Fort Lauderdale, as Shaw made the rounds, some residents who voted for him before seem to be looking for more. Independence, Susan and Bruce months said Shaw hadn't shown up at their recent community candidates night, and so they wanted to talk to him at the picnic about the war. But Shaw didn't talk substance as he worked the crowd. And he left after 35 minutes.

And I don't see what government should operate any differently than your business or your household. Clines stayed an hour and a half, peppering anyone and everyone with his questions and his views, including the months. They said afterwards, they weren't sure, Klein knew how to end the war, but they were disappointed not to hear from Shaw at all. That's one reason for coming here to this picnic today. I want to know more of what he's done. When somebody's been reelected a number of times, you start to wonder, are they getting complacent or are they really fighting for the people they're representing, or have they just gotten comfortable there, because it does seem to be still an old boys club. Hi. How are you? It's too close to call, the turnout will be key, and Florida Republicans have a formidable operation. But it's unclear if the small but crucial Christian conservative community, which usually delivers for Shaw on election day, is up for this one.

Retired FBI supervisor Gary Favita and a Christian family coalition dinner with his wife said the Foley scandal is just the latest downer for them. I mean, you know, we voted the Republican Party in that they ran on a certain agenda. They've been in control now for almost 14 years, and quite frankly, some of the direction that they said they would take us, and they don't really act the way they're supposed to, and to do the things that they say they're going to do. Local Democrats, on the other hand, seem turned on. Retirees Ed and Kitty Ruff of Dale Ray Beach, hurt Klein speak at a local library. So how enthusiastic are you about the upcoming election? I have such high hopes. I stop taking pills because I'm right, though. And you? Oh, yes. I'm looking forward to the Democrats having an absolute landslide, and that's Eddy and I share the same enthusiasm.

So there are sure to be many more joint appearances, like this one Sunday night at the Leisureville Retirement Community in Boca Raton. Mr. Shaw is, has been a longtime congressman. I appreciate his service to the country as do all of us. But sometimes it's time for a change. It's time to get some new perspectives, some new energies, some new ideas. It's time for a new generation of people to work together. Ron, you want a new generation? I want to ask you, what's wrong with our generation? All you offer is criticism. You have constantly been running against the President, Ron. I'm sorry, you're two years too late. The President is not running. I am running. Voters here have less than three weeks to decide whether this race is about these candidates or President Bush. And that brings us to Shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields, New York Times columnist David Brooks.

Mark is the Florida story, pretty much the national story as well when it comes to Iraq in this election. It is Jim. The old maxim is all politics is local until it isn't, and this year it isn't. I mean, the two dominant central themes and bases of this election are Iraq and President George W. Bush. And David, what do you, speaking of Iraq, what do you make of this new round of stories? There was even another one today that President Bush is considering if not changing strategies at least tactics in Iraq. Is there anything to this? What's going on? Well, I think there's, well, the big news was that this latest strategy to preserve some order within Baghdad, that seems to have failed militarily. And so it's had a further ratcheting down, I don't think there's the fundamental change of the dynamic. There's just been a continual series of pessimism about what's going to happen. And it's hitting lower and lower thresholds as more and more people see no good options and see, you know, catastrophic options. And so it's had a sort of this gradual effect on the country.

It's interesting, though, if you talk to voters and what I found especially sort of normal office voters, the thing in Iraq is very complicated. But they know how to manage. They know how what would work in their organization and what would not work. And what they see is if somebody messes something up in their organization, there are consequences for that person. And when they see the president not firing Donald Rumsfeld, giving Tommy Franks and Jerry Bremer or medals, they think, that's not the way we would do things here. I would not hire those people to run my company. And so that has had a big effect. And when people say those people are not like me, even if they're Republican voters, that's a big political consequences. Big political consequences, as you said. I agree with David. There is a subtext in this campaign about competence and incompetence and accountability and the lack thereof as voters do see it. But Jim, the thing that has sustained the two pillars of President Bush on Iraq have been an optimism and determination. And the optimist, there was always something to look forward to.

It's going to be an election or a turnover of authority, a new constitution or whatever else. And there's nothing more to look forward to. And the optimism has been drained by reality, by events. And then that's in the part of the electorate. The Wall Street Journal NBC poll showed this week that asked the more optimistic less optimistic about events in Iraq. In June, it was split right down the middle, 45 percent more optimistic, 44 percent less optimistic. Today, it's 20 percent more optimistic, 68 percent less optimistic. So, but there's one thing that bothers me about it. I have to be very blunt. And that is, all the talk, and you hear it from the administration, from Republicans and Democrats. Well, the Jim Baker-Lee Hamilton study group is going to come in, and they're going to come in after the election. I mean, you know, it's becoming obvious that we're going to leave after the election. We're going to cut back dramatically, I'll go to a three-party sectarian division of Iraq. And you know, I just look at the gold star mothers that are going to be created between now and then until we get to that point.

So we can use cut and run during the campaign, you know, as a recurring theme. Well, we're getting ready to cut and run when November 8 comes. Well, I don't think the Baker and Hamilton Commission, as much as we all admire those two gentlemen, is going to come up with a policy option that nobody knows about. I mean, the options are reasonably clear. Do you divide how quickly would you withdraw? Do you withdraw very quickly or very slowly? We're not going to send in more troops. So the options are all there before us. I just don't think there's a consensus. And to be honest, I don't think it's just around any of these options. No. I think you see people like less scale of the Council on Foreign Relations talking and Joe Biden talking about partition. And then there's a whole series of timetables where we withdraw, even within the democratic party. Some people wanting to get at quickly, some people not. And so far, I don't think there's been a consensus. And there doesn't seem to be a consensus among the military so far, though there's clearly a tide toward withdrawal, which wasn't there, I'd say, six months ago. And then I would say, even we're in the point now where the mighty army is fighting the border brigades, where you've got feuds within the Shia, where you've got feuds

that we can barely understand, that go back to generations, that we can barely control. And to me, a lot of the discussion, frankly, about partitioning Iraq, is abstract and is unrelated to the fact that we can't control Iraq anymore, that they're controlling the country and they're there lost in their own world. Mark, have you heard anything that makes you think that there is some kind of consensus growing as to everybody agrees, things are not going well, but if my only bet, is there any agreement on what to do with that? No, no, but I think the verdict is in, I think they're going to use it to hang a solution on. I mean, there's any question that we'll start to get very serious about considerations and options. Those options, David's absolutely right, are there now. And why not at least put it on the table instead of pretending it's in my pocket, and I'll bring it out on the 8th and November. Jim, I'll tell you, no, the President's Press Secretary said that two days ago that these are all non-starters, all the options that you all just mentioned are non-starters. Well, I mean, David's right. I mean, there are certain people, many of whom were the biggest cheerleaders for the

war, including Senator John McCain, who said we need more troops, the Senate military. Say we need more troops. You talk about non-starters. There is no political support for that in the country, and after November 7th, there'll be zero political support for that in the country. But I don't think it's any question. There's a verdict that the war is a failure. The United States is not going to prevail. We're not going to create this democracy that was envisioned and all the rest of it that became the rationalization after we didn't find weapons in mass destruction. Do you agree the verdict is in on this like that? Would you say it is strongly as marches? I wouldn't say it is loudly, but it's hard to dispute the fact. Yeah, no, I wouldn't dispute the fact. But I mean, none of this has changed the fundamental debate that we've had for the past year, that we all want to get out, but if you get out and there are 200,000 people killed in a genocidal civil war, what does that leave you with? And so that's always been the series of bad choices we have, and that hasn't changed in the past month.

What do you make of the president's willingness to comment on the offensive analogy on ABC this week? Yeah, this was the analogy of my colleague Tom Friedman made. And it raised people's eyebrows because it was the first time he's publicly acknowledged a comparison to Vietnam. He, the president, President, got Tom, though maybe Tom too. I would say the president meant it in an arrow sense. And the narrow sense he meant it in, we're running to an election, the enemy is aware of the political situation in our country, and they're launching this offensive to create casualties in order to affect our election. What did you make of that? I think it was a slip on his part. I mean, the White House has been very careful, and the staff was very upset because they don't want any analogy, any comparison, the V-word. They don't want that enter in the conversation. I mean, you know, that Baghdad is Arabic for Hanoi. I mean, it's really what the reality has become politically. So I don't know.

I'd be hard pressed to think that George Bush knew when the Tet Offensive was. It was January of 1968. And that was 11 months before the election of 1968. It sure did. It had an effect on this country. But, you know, I think the idea of the historical book end is a little bit of a reach. Do you think, though, that it's going to start a discussion of not a debate in this country about, hey, hey, hey, this has beginning to have the smell of Vietnam? I think that genie is out of the bottle, Jim, and rhetorically speaking. I think it will be. You agree with that? Well, Vietnam's mentioned, I think in the first word, but the first week of the war. But it didn't win away. It didn't win away. Right, I guess. But again, it doesn't change the fundamental situation. We could get out of withdrawal, and the North Vietnamese were not coming to America. And that's the difference here. When you're talking about withdrawing from Iraq, you're talking about a highly motivated set of Sunni insurgents throughout the world who could come to America who could come spread throughout the region. So the aftermath of Vietnam, whatever one thinks of the war, we nothing like the aftermath

here. And it should be said the aftermath of Vietnam, and Cambodia was bloody enough. Speaking of the elections, Mark, were you stunned at this new poll that showed that the Congress of the United States has not held a very high regard? In fact, 16% approval rating? It was a tie. I went back and compared it to the 94 numbers in 94 when the earthquake took place, and the Republicans picked up 50 seats and took over control. The Congress was a 24% approval, which is 22, it was in two years before the election. It meant the banks. Yeah, it was in 15. That was in 15. But the president was at 46% Bill Clinton was. I mean, the Republicans would kill to have George Bush at 46% approval right now. And I think Jim, what really sealed the bargain was the fully thing. I mean, it's staggering 83% of Americans in the Wall Street Journal, NBC poll, know who Mark Foley is, and have a rating on him.

90% of them. I mean, this is presidential nominees don't reach this part. And it's 70% of them, 70% of them have a negative feeling to it. And it just almost crystallized everything. It was Cunningham was delay. It was the economy. It was Iraq. All the things that go wrong, the health care, and this guy just kind of put it right in perspective that maybe it is time to go. I covered the end of the Tory government when Thatcher and then John Major, and they at the end of those 12 years, whatever it was, they had scandals popping out all over some financial, some sexual. This feels like that. It feels the same to me. And so I do think we are at the end of a big exclamation point at the end of a certain sort of conservative rule, and the Republicans you talk to now, where they before they were thinking maybe we'll lose 10 seats, now they're thinking 25, 30, 35. So there's clearly been this massive tide. And the tide is in old-line suburbs around New York, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Columbus, Ohio, and the people who are being wiped out are the moderates.

Modern Republicans are about to be destroyed because they can't differentiate themselves from the national Republican brand, which was the base-oriented brand that the president and Carl Rov created. Let's move. Let's look to 2008, Mark Barack Obama. On the cover of Time This Week, he's on everybody's television program. And David Brooks said, run Barack, run in his column. What's going on? I went echo with David said, and if Barack Obama has ever thought about being president wants to be president, he had a run in 2008. Why? Is it personal anecdote, before he died, Lee Atwater, who had run George Bush's 1988 campaign, confided that they were terrified in 1988, the Democrats would nominate Dick Gephart. Because the matchup against Gephart for George Herbert Walker Bush, Yale, Scullen Bones, Silver Spoon in his mouth, against Dick Gephart, the son of a truck driver, male driver, Missouri, kind of heartland guy.

He said, we were dead. He said, when they nominated a Massachusetts liberal who taught at Harvard, it was a godsend to us. And it only comes around once. I mean, people say, gee, Barack Obama, he's young. He ought to wait. You know, well, either Donald Trump's going to get elected in 2008. And that means, for eight years, he's out of the business. And all I'd say is, I think eight years in the Senate is going to be helpful to becoming president, ask President Bob Dole and President John Kerry how helpful it was. I always tell senators, since 1962, 55 senators have run for president and their record is over 52. So they haven't won any. So no, I agree with Mark and I even agree with my own column. But summarize why you think this man is so extraordinary at this stage. First of all, the only person, maybe an American politics, though, with McCain, who generates real excitement. Real, real excitement. And Hillary Clinton, to all her credit, does not generate that excitement. So that's important. So why does he generate excitement? It's because he has a deliberative mind.

Whenever he sees an issue, he sees all sides of it. And then he works his way through. And you know, I've had many conversations with him, and we disagree on both things. But you have a conversation with him, and you feel like he really understands your point of view, and he may differ. But he has a deliberative process that goes on in his mind. And I think it's because of his background. He comes from Kansas. He lived in Chicago. He lived in Hawaii. He lived in the Pacific. He's got all these things coming through him in his life story. And he's had to negotiate between them, poverty, Harvard Law School. And so he's about negotiation. And he may be young. But if you have that process going on, I think you'll be able to magnify the knowledge you have. They're just done by, oh, he'll pay on to Obama. I mean, I think we're in the bumper sticker, which is about a time when he walks into a room. You know, he's there. I mean, that's the other. That's the imponderable and the intangible. I mean, he really does. I mean, yeah. Yeah. OK.

Thank you both very much. Finally tonight, the U.S. military base in Kyrgyzstan. Our report comes from the News 21 Project, a collaboration of journalism schools at five universities. This story was produced by two students at the University of California, Berkeley, Kachikum Koval-Waltbert, and Patrick Ferrell. This is Kyrgyzstan, not Kyrgyzstan-mi-Rachikravans, not Kazakhstan, the Irish country to the north. It's Kyrgyzstan, a small and obscure former republic of the Soviet Union. It's been independent since the early 90s. The global war on terror has taken US troops to places most Americans have never heard

of, let alone been to. It's also taken reporters far from home, including me. Though in my case, it's hard to say where home is, I was born in the Soviet Union and moved to the U.S. when I was a kid. And that's Patrick, my partner. He grew up in Nebraska. He's as far from home as the rest of the people on this base. That's going right. It's called the Monus Air Base. Everything and everyone that the U.S. sends to Afghanistan comes through here. Last year, planes that took off from Monus carried 59,000 tons of gear and 60 million pounds of fuel. They also brought over 100,000 troops to and from the war, where what everyone here calls Down Range. Wherever you are, they're ready. Down Range?

Yeah, in Bagram, Afghanistan. Yeah. It's a beautiful country. You say that was on irony? Yeah. I don't even know if you'd consider it a third world country. I've been to Haiti and I think the firearm was actually Afghanistan was worse. Monus has been here since the war in Afghanistan started. Just three months after 9-11, U.S. forces pitched a few tents at an old airport outside Biscuit, the Kyrgyz capital. Their job? To support operation enduring freedom. Five years later, the base is still here. But the airmen could pick up and leave in a matter of weeks. Monus is a perfect example of the Pentagon's new strategy of projecting American power. As an expeditionary base, it's here for the war in Afghanistan. But if the war changes, or a local politics shift, it could go somewhere else. Could we do it without Monus? Well, we'd find a way, certainly, if it becomes necessary, we will find a way. But for now, the base is here.

It's a long way from home, but they try. This is shooters. This is a recreation center that has a lot to offer for our folks. People can check out movies, just kind of relax a little bit. Unlike older, more established bases like ones in Korea and Germany, the troops here are only allowed off base unsupervised excursions. Some are still surprised to be here at all. In the span of fire force career, to go from this being a Soviet Union-occupied territory to now being a coalition partner force to do our operations, it's just absolutely remarkable. Kyrgyzstan is a strange place. It feels like the outer reaches of an empire, but the question is, which empire? It chairs no borders with Russia, but most people speak Russian. Many here look Chinese, and the main religion is Islam. Chief of Security Major Mark Enarima and his troops patrol the base as perimeters. Enarima was as in tune with the local culture as anyone on this base.

Sometimes we go to a meeting, and they expect you to drink with them, and if you don't, they don't trust you. So, I've had vodka with my morning online. Kyrgyz politics are unstable. Last year, the old president was ousted in a coup nearly overnight, and this spring, demonstrators in Bishkak nearly ended the rule of the new president. But those demonstrations, they stayed peaceful, so we've never had a spillover here, but at the topic was ever the American presence, we're pretty sure that it would want to come in this way. Some of Enarima's security forces come to the nearby towns on their days off, as volunteers. As far as mixing with locals, this is about as far as it goes. I have four kids at home, a lot of our guys are kids at home, so do something with a playground project. It's very therapeutic, you know? Ba-ba-da. That's what I get, Ba-ba-anarima. There's a disconnect here.

Maybe it's the language barrier. Maybe it's because most airmen only stay for four months at a time. And maybe it's because people here still miss the old guard. This is where we're used to have a bust of Karl Marx, but somebody came and took him home one night. Maybe out of nostalgia. Galena Tiddishuk is mayor of the town where the troops built the playground. She showed us old photos of how things used to be. One of them was a veterans who fought in the devastating Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. That were lasted most of the 80s and killed over a million people. In the old days, we used to help the military. Our factory was rich enough to feed and clot the soldiers. We could help anyone then. Today we're standing with their hands stretched out like poppers. Americans on base pride themselves on hiring and buying locally. We've got some very important stuff, we've got toys, seek those toilet seats were inexpensive

like this once in a panigan. Last spring, the Kyrgyz president decided to raise the rent on the Mona space. And he didn't just ask for more. He asked for a hundred times more, two hundred and seven million dollars per year. Four months later, when we were on base, a new rent deal still hadn't been struck. But for airmen and building contractors, it was business as usual. The political issue that's going on, are we going to stay or are we going to leave? With this location, it's kind of a temporary thing. One of the buildings that's in the works is a passenger concourse. So you can take a busload of troops, you can drop them off right here at the front door. Army troops stay in this big tent where we met Garrett Napier, a National Guardsman from Oklahoma, waiting for a flight to Afghanistan. If I ask you what you must have prayed up for, is that it's something you'd rather not think about? It's something you don't like to think about, but you have to think about it.

I don't want to get killed, or come back less than when I left, but it's just a part of the job. We don't just look at them, it's like army, I mean they are, they're just a bunch of army guys, but it's probably a good chance that they're not all going to go back the same way. The next morning, specialist Napier was on his way to Afghanistan. Then we were on our way downrange, too. We were about to see the war on terror, Air Force style. We sit right back there, and you'll be able to about that window in these windows right here. That's what we're going to look for. We just passed the border of Uzbekistan. We went in a refueling mission in this KC-135. Originally built in 1958 for the Cold War, it's still making its rounds as a flying gas station. For an hour and a half, we coasted over the Pamir Mountains. Then over the massive US-based in Bagram, and over Kabul.

This was as close as we would get to the war. Then our mission, the B-1 bomber, slid in behind our plane for refueling. After filling up, the B-1 was gone as quickly as it had appeared. Less than 1% of the Air Force are actually pilots. They're the ones who get to see the war from this vantage. Back on the ground, Afghanistan filled far away, until we went to a hidden corner of the base. This is the mortuary, where we will receive fallen warriors. Typically, they are casualties from operation and during freedom in Afghanistan. All of these boxes are flags most will arrive draped with a flag. We have these in case they don't.

In the six weeks that I have been here, we have had quite a few. There has not been a week yet that we have not had a casualty come to us from Afghanistan. I remind our guys all the time, our brothers and sisters are in much area places in this. Manas is the only base that's part of operation and during freedom where you can have a drink. Two drinks, actually. That's place is named for a New York City fire captain who died during 9-11. It's also the place for some patriotic karaoke. Though Manas is an integral part of the war in Afghanistan, people here still long for the downrange experience. The first three weeks I was here, I really felt guilty because I knew it was pretty forced guys everywhere were getting shot at, they were getting mortared, they were really in the middle of everything and here we sit and it's fairly quiet compared to other

bases. In July, figures in American officials signed a deal allowing U.S. forces to stand on us as long as the war in Afghanistan continues. The price tag? $20 million a year. Major in a room will finish the playground he built with his troops and celebrated its opening with the local mayors. But he won't be here for long. When he gets back to his native New Jersey, he'll be teaching a college course on security after 9-11. He'll have to talk about new lighter bases like Manas, bases designed, at least in theory, to be here today and gone tomorrow. Again, the major developments of this day, President Bush talked about possible change in tactics in Iraq, he acknowledged the situation is tough. She had gunmen, seized a city in southern Iraq and held it briefly before withdrawing.

South Korean news reports said the North Korean leader Kim Jong-il told China he is sorry about conducting a nuclear test. And oil prices fell below $57 a barrel the lowest since last November. And once again to our honor roll of American service personnel, killed in Iraq and Afghanistan, we add them as their deaths are made official and photographs become available. Here in silence are 14 more. Washington Week can be seen later this evening on most PBS stations.

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