The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MacNeil: Good evening. Leading the news this Monday, Baghdad Radio says Saddam Hussein has ordered the Iraqi army to withdraw from Kuwait, but the Bush administration said the war goes on. Allied ground forces continued to drive deeper into Iraq and Kuwait. An Iraqi Scud missile hit a U.S. barracks in Saudi Arabia, killing 12 Americans. We'll have details in our News Summary in a moment. Jim.

MR. LEHRER: On the NewsHour tonight we have full reports on what is known about the conduct of the ground war thus far, plus House Speaker Tom Foley and Sen. Alan Simpson fresh from a Pentagon briefing, and some analysis of the situation from Former Army Gen. John Wickham, and military analysts Jim Dingeman and Ken Brower.NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: On this second day of the Persian Gulf ground war, Baghdad Radio said Iraqi Pres. Saddam Hussein has ordered his forces to withdraw from Kuwait. They said the order to withdraw was in accordance with a Soviet peace proposal. There were reports a new Soviet plan had presented to the United Nations Security Council. It was said to be close to the terms set last week by Pres. Bush. That includes a total Iraqi withdrawal in a short period of time and without conditions. The Iraqi Radio Broadcast said, "Orders have been issued to our armed forces to withdraw in an organized manner to the positions they held prior to August 1, 1990." It also said Iraqi forces "will fight with force and courage to make their withdrawal organized and honorable." In Washington, White House Spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said, "There has been no contact with our government. We don't consider there's anything to respond to. The war goes on." Earlier in the day, U.S. officials said the battle was proceeding with remarkable efficiency. A U.S. military spokesman said nearly 20,000 Iraqi troops had surrendered and more than 270 Iraqi tanks were destroyed. Some units of the Republican Guard, Iraq's most feared forces, were reportedly moving out of their bunkers toward the front. U.S. casualties were reported to be four killed in action, 21 wounded. Five Saudi soldiers also died and another twenty were injured. Iraq today launched its deadliest Scud missile attack. It destroyed a military barrack housing 100 U.S. soldiers near Dahrahan, Saudi Arabia, causing a huge explosion and fire. The Defense Department said 12 U.S. servicemen were killed, some 25 were injured. At least 40 others are reported missing. The U.S. Central Command said the missile appeared to break up in flight. They said the damage was caused by falling debris. Pres. Bush gave a status report on the ground campaign this morning. He spoke in the White House East Room at a ceremony marking Black History Month.

PRES. BUSH: You know that the issue on all of our minds is the war in the Gulf. And I'm glad to report after consultation a few minutes ago with Chairman Powell, Gen. Powell, that the news is good, coalition air and ground forces are advancing on their objectives, enemy prisoners are surrendering in large numbers, large numbers, and thus far, thank God, U.S. and coalition casualties are few. The liberation of Kuwait is on course and on schedule. We have the initiative. We intend to keep it. We must guard against euphoria. There are battles yet to come and casualties to be borne, but make no mistake, we will prevail, Kuwait will soon be free, and America's men and women in uniform will return home to the thanks and respect of a grateful nation. [Applause] This was a war thrust upon us, not a war that we sought, but naked aggression such as we have seen must be resisted if it is not to become a pattern, and our success in the Gulf will bring with it not just a new opportunity for peace and stability in a critical part of the world, but a chance to build a new world order based upon the principles of collective security and the rule of law.

MR. LEHRER: The view of how the war was going was very different in Baghdad this morning. We have a report from there by Edward Storten of Independent Television News. It was filed before tonight's radio announcement of a possible Iraqi withdrawal from Kuwait. His report was cleared by Iraqi censors.

MR. STORTEN: Iraqis listened intently to the greatest ground war developments. On day two of the land battle, Baghdad Radio claimed that missiles hit Saudi Arabia and Israel. The state run broadcaster also rallied its troops, calling them to strike with all their force, a call which brought the intended response from these listeners. Later an Iraqi official gave Baghdad's version of how the war was going.

IRAQI OFFICIAL: Saladin forces and other forces of this were involved in the counter offensive, and expelled the enemy forces certainly, have driven them out of their positions totally.

MR. STORTEN: Two versions of one war, but the one thing Baghdad residents know for certain is that the allied bombardment of their capital continues. Monday morning air raid sirens wailed three more times, but no explosions were heard in downtown areas. The columns of smoke still rose out of the Western part of the capital which was hit in overnight raids. Iraqi officials wanting to display the hardships that the bombing is inflicting on civilians took some journalists to the town of Kufa, 200 miles Southeast of Baghdad. The press was shown this damaged bridge over the Euphrates. The allies say strikes like this are cutting military supply lines. Local residents claimed four civilians died in the attack. Later, as dark fell on Baghdad, the familiar sights and sounds of aerial assaults were back, heralding another restless night.

MR. LEHRER: The official U.S. military word on the war thus far came at a brief briefing in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, this morning. The briefer was Marine Brig. Gen. Richard Neal.

BRIG. GEN. NEAL: Let me first clarify my comments by reminding you that the battlefield is a dynamic and ever changing place and that these initial reports are just that, initial reports, and they may change as further details become known to us. In ground operations, we are now into the second area of ground campaign and the 39th day of Operation Desert Storm. We are continuing to attack and continue to achieve tremendous success against the Iraqi forces and the KTO. Our ground forces continue to encounter light to moderate resistance and are currently ahead of schedule in securing their planned objective. Across the front, coalition forces continue to capture large numbers of enemy prisoners of war, in some cases, entire battalions at a time. Marine, Army French and Saudi forces have captured more than 18,000 enemy prisoners of war to date. Coalition forces are engaging armor and mech forces with great success. During the late morning and early afternoon today, Marines engaged in armor or mech force, destroying fifty to sixty tanks. An army armor brigade operating with Marine forces engaged another armor mech unit consisting of over 150 vehicles. Initial reports indicate again tremendous success. The fight goes on. Air operations, the United States Air Force, Marine Corps, the United States Navy and coalition air forces continue the air campaign. Yesterday we flew over 3,000 missions, including 1300 in the KTO. Of that 1300, over 700 were dedicated to close air support. Today the same tempo of operations continues. That's the last time I brief you. We have lost four U.S. aircraft, two AVA-3's, one Apache A-64, and one A-10 in combat operations. Of the five pilots involved, three have been rescued. Mobile operations and Naval and amphibious operations continue all along the Coast of Kuwait. Terrorism continues as the only Iraqi success to report to date. We have seen an increase in Iraqi terrorism throughout the KTO. As of 1400 this afternoon, we can confirm over 600 fires burning in the KTO. Of these, at least 517 are wellheads. Additionally, numerous facilities throughout Kuwait City are being systematically destroyed. Reports of atrocities of the worst sort are continuing to come in through reports. In closing, let me underscore the fact that to date we have employed only a small portion of our total combat following. There is much more to come. This completes my prepared remarks. I can answer a few questions before leaving.

REPORTER: Would you say right now that this is a one-sided battle? You seem to be reporting a great deal of success and very little failure.

BRIG. GEN. NEAL: I wouldn't say that it was one-sided. I would just say that we're enjoying success; where we're meeting the enemy, we're defeating the enemy. Yes, ma'am.

REPORTER: Can you give us more details on the Republican Guards? Are they resisting, are they fighting, or are they surrendering?

BRIG. GEN. NEAL: Are they being beaten, yes.

REPORTER: Have you run into and engaged with your own armored forces T-72 tanks?

BRIG. GEN. NEAL: We have destroyed 35 T-72s as I speak, yes, sir.

REPORTER: Has there been any sign of Iraqi air force?

BRIG. GEN. NEAL: None whatsoever.

REPORTER: General, what can you tell us in terms of when you expect to wrap this thing up and the liberation of Kuwait be completed?

BRIG. GEN. NEAL: I can't give you a timeframe on that. All I can say is that the U.S. and coalition forces are attacking with an aggressive spirit and we're meeting the enemy and we're not having any problem to date in destroying them. Thanks very much. That's all I have time for. FOCUS - STORMING FORWARD

MR. LEHRER: The top leadership of Congress went to the Pentagon late this afternoon for a briefing from Defense Sec. Cheney, Joint Chiefs of Staff Colin Powell and others. Two of those attending were House Speaker Tom Foley of Washington State, who joins us from Capitol Hill, and Sen. Alan Simpson, Republican of Wyoming, minority whip for the Senate. Sen. Simpson, is there anything you can add to this Baghdad Radio report that Saddam Hussein has ordered his troops to withdraw from Kuwait?

SEN. SIMPSON: Nothing at all. That was not part of any of the material we were given today at the Pentagon. That was a very classified briefing. But you know, the White House has already said that, you know, that's all they know about it on the news, but I wouldn't put a great deal of credence in it. Last time he was talking peace, he was firing Scuds and ripping through Kuwait City, so I think we just have to proceed with a very well conceived battle plan and continue to move until something very tangible takes place which has not to this point.

MR. LEHRER: Speaker Foley, anything you want to add or subtract right now to that?

SPEAKER FOLEY: No. Just what Sen. Simpson has said, I hope it's true, I hope the report that Saddam Hussein is withdrawing his troops, has ordered his troops to withdraw from Kuwait is true, but we have had reason to be skeptical in the past and we have to wait and see.

MR. LEHRER: But let's say, Speaker Foley, that this time it is true and that his troops do start to leave Kuwait. Should the United States and the allied forces let them leave? Should we stand in the way? Should we fight them? Should we kill them? Should we capture them? What should we do?

SPEAKER FOLEY: I think if they're really withdrawing, we've given evidence before of our willingness to have them withdraw and not to put them under attack while they're withdrawing, if there, in fact, is a definite and systematic withdrawal of their forces. The question of course remains what we will do in the sense of trying to inhibit their taking equipment.

MR. LEHRER: What do you think about that, Senator? What should we -- if we have some feeling that it's legit, what should we do?

SEN. SIMPSON: Well, that's my deep problem, a deep and abiding suspicion that these people lie. They have lied to us before. There is no other way to phrase it. They love to keep -- they play mind games on the world. If they were to withdraw and the white flags were up and they were moving out and they had also stopped any activity in Kuwait, in Kuwait City, had stopped the firing of Scuds, and it is all halted, and that was taking place, I would say, indeed, but if they're going to -- and you remember that first skirmish where they had turrets backwards and then just suddenly turned them the other way, and that's part of the ploy and the guile of this man, and so if it's all flags up and out of the ground, I agree very definitely with my friend Tom Foley. We're not going to allow them to take that equipment and just move that way. We're not going to go to Baghdad. We're not going to do things that aren't in the United Nations resolution. I think that would be a mistake. But we're certainly not going to let this guy fold up and take the stuff.

MR. LEHRER: But if, Speaker Foley, if he, in fact, wants to go to bring his troops back to Baghdad, the ones who are in Kuwait, and I think it's around -- who knows -- around 500,000, is it not, Mr. Foley, is that something like that?

SPEAKER FOLEY: Well, I'm not sure exactly how many troops are under his control.

MR. LEHRER: Sure. But let's say if he wants to bring those troops out and we should let him do that, is that right, is that what you're suggesting?

SPEAKER FOLEY: Yes. As Sen. Simpson said, if he stopped all aggressive action, if he stopped firing Scuds, if he brought to a halt any activities that have been going on in Kuwait City, and he's in total retreat across the Iraqi border, I think we probably will let him do that.

MR. LEHRER: Speaking of Scuds, Speaker Foley, the Scud attack on the U.S. barracks in Saudi Arabia, the reports, the wire report has it that 12 Americans were killed, 50 were injured. Is that what you all were told at the Pentagon?

SPEAKER FOLEY: We were told 12 were killed and 25 injured and others missing.

MR. LEHRER: How many missing?

SPEAKER FOLEY: An undetermined amount we were told.

SEN. SIMPSON: I think that's -- I ascribe to the Speaker's view. That is an undetermined amount of missing. It may be that it is the time of day that they were absent from their quarters, or whatever, but there's no certainty there.

MR. LEHRER: All right. On the general ground war, the President - - we just ran a clip in fact -- the President made some remarks this morning that all Americans should avoid euphoria on this ground war. Sen. Simpson, based on what you heard at this briefing this afternoon, is euphoria justified?

SEN. SIMPSON: No, it isn't. This is war and that is never the reaction I think or a response, better yet, that is valid, except for those who, indeed, have loved ones in the area, and they think this would, the sooner, the swifter, the more awesome and then out and home, but I would say that -- and we really, I have never felt in my 12 years here where I was less able to respond to a briefing that we had. I would just say that from the Sec. of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs that this procedure is going very well.

MR. LEHRER: You say you feel less able to respond. Why?

SEN. SIMPSON: Because we were given some very specific information.

MR. LEHRER: I see. And you can't share it?

SEN. SIMPSON: No.

MR. LEHRER: Speaker Foley, how would you characterize your overall impression of how this war is going based on what you heard?

SPEAKER FOLEY: It's going very, very well. I mean, the very low level of casualties is particularly gratifying. Any death, of course, or serious injury in war is regrettable and it's going to bea burden, a very serious burden for those families and loved ones who suffer it, but one cannot imagine the very, very low levels of casualties so far in an operation of this size. Even in maneuvers, even in peaceful maneuvers, there are deaths and injuries resulting from moving large numbers of troops and so that this is very, very remarkable, and the success of the operation, itself, is very gratifying. We don't know what additional resistance will be met in the coming hours and days, but so far, it's extremely impressive and gratifying.

MR. LEHRER: Sen. Simpson, without giving away any classified information, I wouldn't ask you to do it even if you would, but can you, is there an expectation, a serious expectation on the part of Sec. Cheney, Gen. Powell and the others that assuming the ground war continues, that there is some really serious work to do, some really serious fighting still to be done, no matter what has happened these last 24 hours?

SEN. SIMPSON: I would think anyone that has placed their forces in harm's way, as Gen. Schwarzkopf has done with his decision based upon the President and the Chairman, that, indeed, that is all you anticipate about war, and we don't know yet where they may move or go, but the important thing is that whatever they're doing they've got to come up, and when they come up, they have no protection by air and no real artillery protection, just remembering enough about my days in Germany in the infantry with an armored personnel outfit, when an outfit feels that it has no air protection and no artillery protection, it is in true jeopardy psychologically, militarily, and I agree with Tom, I can remember in maneuvers in Germany where we would lose a helicopter or lose, you know, a round would misfire and it's just hard to believe that we've had a 40 day and that's because of the way it's been conducted and necessarily so with the limitation on reporting, which I know has been repugnant to some, but the very purpose of it was to protect the life and limb and our people in the Gulf, men and women alike.

MR. LEHRER: Do you support the restrictions on the reporting?

SEN. SIMPSON: I do, but of course, I have a checkered pass, a little combat with the media, and I think it -- you know, our sole reason for doing it is protection of the life and limb of the men and women in the Gulf. His sole reason for doing it is to lob Scuds into residential areas and POWs, to get 'em out and parade 'em around, and rip up people in Kuwait, and you know, this is one evil cat.

MR. LEHRER: Well, Speaker Foley, let me ask you, did you hear anything at that briefing today at the Pentagon that if the whole - - if the American public was also told it it would jeopardize the military situation in the Gulf in a serious way?

SPEAKER FOLEY: Oh, I think that the briefing was detailed enough and operational enough that public exposure of it would probably give Iraqi military commanders an opportunity to know something they don't know now and may not know now, and under those circumstances, of course, it could be very damaging. It was very specific. It was a briefing that dealt with the movement of units, where they are, where they're anticipated to go by name of the unit and so forth, so it was a kind of staff, a military briefing that would be extremely useful for an adversary to know about.

MR. LEHRER: Did you hear anything, Speaker Foley, that if the American people knew about they would be stunned to know, they would be shocked, they would be -- is there some huge piece of information --

SPEAKER FOLEY: No, thereisn't. There isn't. And in that sense, I think people are getting a good idea of what's happening. I don't think the American people are being denied useful information. As a matter of fact, between classified briefings and what's on the air, there is a difference of degree of detail, not so much some very deep secret that isn't revealed to the public.

MR. LEHRER: Do you agree with that, Sen. Simpson?

SEN. SIMPSON: I really do. I wouldn't put a lot of high drama on this. We just --

MR. LEHRER: I'm just trying to clear the air.

SEN. SIMPSON: But it isn't high drama. I agree with Tom. This is simply, you know, a description of the battle area, a description of the field, and it was quite detailed, and that's it. There were no balloons up, no high drama, and I think the American people will find it out soon enough, but you certainly wouldn't want to communicate it in any way through ground wire or any kind of communication to the Iraqi forces.

MR. LEHRER: All right. Well, Sen. Simpson, Speaker Foley, thank you both for being with us. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: We're going to look at the ground war ourselves not, and not having the advantage of members of Congress, we're going to simplify it by looking at it from what we know in two parts, the drive on Kuwait City and the trust into Iraq, itself, with a start on the Iraq front. From Saudi Arabia, Charles Krause reports in more detail on today's allied advances.

MR. KRAUSE: The drive into Southern Iraq is a key part of coalition strategy designed to meet and destroy Saddam Hussein's toughest troops. Yesterday that strategy aimed at the elite Republican Guard was set in motion. Just after daybreak, some 300 helicopters from the army's 101st Airborne Division mounted the largest helicopter assault in military history. The choppers carried more than 2,000 GIs, as well as howitzers, ammunition and tons of supplies across the desert, well behind enemy lines. Some 50 inside Iraq, the troops established a forward staging area code named Cobra. From here, they'll move out further into Iraqi territory.

LT. MICHAEL PENDOL, 229th Flying Tigers: I'm ready to move up to Euphrates and get this thing over with.

REPORTER: You're pretty far in already.

LT. PENDOL: We're well deep within the enemy sector, but we're prepared to go further North if need be.

MR. KRAUSE: The mission reportedly the sever of vital highway links between Baghdad and Basra, cutting off supplies to Iraqi forces in Kuwait at the South and trapping Republican Guard units in Iraq to the North and West. Meanwhile, as the forward troops took their positions, French and American armored units were racing toward them in what's called a flanking or enveloping maneuver. British tanks also penetrated enemy lines, their joint mission to engage Republican Guard units and tanks in what could prove to be the decisive battle of the Gulf War. Tonight French Brig. Gen. Daniel Gazeau reported that the allied thrust into Iraq has proceeded as planned and on schedule.

BRIG. GEN. DANIEL GAZEAU, Deputy French Forces Commander: Jumping off yesterday at dawn, it has taken our regiments only 36 hours to neutralize an enemy division and the cross some 90 miles which separated the line of departure from the achievement of the objective.

MR. KRAUSE: All day today there were reports that a column of 80 tanks belonging to the Republican Guard was moving South toward the allied forces.

MR. KRAUSE: There's a report of a column of 80 Republican Guard tanks heading South and reports that a major tank battle is going to be occurring momentarily. Do you have any information about that?

BRIG. GEN. RICHARD NEAL, U.S. Marine Corps: I can't confirm or deny that particular report, but let me say that, as my report would indicate and my prepared remarks, we've run into substantial numbers of tanks and we've defeated them.

MR. KRAUSE: While the war so far has gone even better than expected, Neal and other American commanders here caution that the fighting is not yet over. Until the Republican Guard is defeated, they say, the war will continue and the potential danger for allied troops and for Iraq's neighbors will remain.

MR. MacNeil: Now to analyze the moves into Iraq, we're joined by Gen. John Wickham, former army chief of staff and former commander of the 101st Airborne, John Dingeman, a writer on military affairs in the Middle East, and Ken Brower, a research fellow at Britain's Royal Military College. Gen. Wickham, as the former commander of the unit, describe the strategy that the 101st is following on establishing this base inside Iraq.

GEN. WICKHAM: Robin, one of the extraordinary capabilities of the 101st is the airlift capability that has organic. It can move its artillery, it can move fuel, it can move munitions at about 90 knots an hour and it can push them out about 90 miles and then refuel and then by leapfrogging, it can move further, so it has enough lift to move a third of the assault elements or combat elements of the division at one time. So it has extraordinary capability and what is going on here is the establishment of a base inside of Iraq from which other elements of the division can project forward and attempt to close off the routes of escape that might lie against the Euphrates River, so it is a leveraged capability that is being exploited to its maximum. If I might, Robin, about the news that we're hearing now that they're attempting to withdraw forces, one can argue that's, of course, a political decision that's going to be made at the highest levels, as to whether to allow that to happen, but withdrawal is a military operation and everything's fair game in withdrawal, everything's fair game, and we are at a point now, things have gone so well, the momentum of this attack has gone so well, and it's extraordinarily effective in terms of reducing our own casualties, and we are at a point where we're able now to perhaps, if we continue this momentum and this initiative, as the President said today, to head off the Iraqi armed forces that are still in Kuwait and make them leave their equipment there. We ought not to be in a position to allow Saddam Hussein to withdraw out of the end game here and capitalize on some sort of victory when he's at the face of defeat.

MR. MacNeil: Even if that meant firing on him to prevent them withdrawing with equipment?

GEN. WICKHAM: That's right. Now there may be some --

MR. MacNeil: Wouldn't that go against what assurances the United States has given before now, or do you think they're invalid now?

GEN. WICKHAM: There may be some political decision that the cease-fire must obtain but that has to be worked out. There need to be some givens on a cease-fire that we're not going to do this, Iraqis are not going to fire Scuds, that they're not going to shoot at us, they're going to take mines with 'em, et cetera, but absent those kind of assurances, we need to continue the heat, continue the pressure, and try to seal off the routes of escape to try to capture that equipment. That doesn't mean it's going to be easy, but we're capable of doing that within the next day or so and we ought to continue that unless the political authorities reach some other kind of an agreement.

MR. MacNeil: Okay. Well, let's go back to the situation on the ground. Jim Dingeman, describe what you understand the strategy to be. We've marked that forward base the 101st have established there with that star. Now describe with the little tanks we have down there what you understand the allied strategy to be using that base.

MR. DINGEMAN: All right. As I understand the allied strategy, the forces on the extreme Western flank, the French 6th Light Division and Armored Division is moving forward to Nassariyah and operating as a flanking force to screen the main advance, which consists of the 18th Corps moving forward to Nassariyah, and attempting to seize the road, the road juncture here that Gen. Wickham referred to in terms of cutting off the forces of the Republican Guards and the rest of the forces down here in the KTO, and the 7th Corps, which we haven't heard too much about in the press, is moving forward this way to engage the Republican Guards, which consist of four divisions, and the regular mobile formations, the two armor and two mechanized divisions that are here. Further looking at the actual operation in Kuwait, itself --

MR. MacNeil: We're going to come back to the operation in Kuwait. We're going to discuss that separately. Okay. I understand that. Mr. Brower, what do you understand is the purpose of this French push to the West? We heard the French general describing it very dramatically. What do you understand is the purpose of that?

MR. BROWER: Well, you heard Mr. Canby the other night on your phone discussing the strategic turning movement. That's a military term, putting the Iraqi in the bag. The reason Saddam Hussein's asking for a premature truce, trying to get conditions, is he realizes within a matter of hours, as Gen. Wickham has said, because of brilliant strategy and tactical leadership, we are about to close the jaws of a trap on 42 divisions in the Kuwaiti theater of operations, they can't get out, they can't be resupplied, their choice is surrender or be destroyed.

MR. MacNeil: Now that's assuming that the 7th Armored Division coming up, which is the most, as I understand it, the most heavily massive -- it has 1300 tanks or something with it -- it is --

MR. BROWER: 7th Corps, Robin.

MR. MacNeil: 7th Corps, I beg your pardon, the 7th Corps, that assumes that it can neutralize and make ineffective these Republican Guards --

MR. BROWER: They're caught. They're caught and trapped. The reality is in previous Middle Eastern wars when the leadership has gone on a public radio, which the troops feel here, and said retreat, the officers run, the armies shatter. If you remember back to the '67 war, in the Sinai Peninsula, the exact same thing happened. The generals ran, the divisions fell apart, and we saw pictures of tanks piled in front of the Mittler Pass. In the next few weeks, we're going to see pictures between Basra and Nassariyah of thousands of tanks and guns and trunks destroyed or abandoned.

MR. MacNeil: You have studied the Republican Guard. Is that the way they will behave, given the situation? They are supposed to be the toughest battle-hardened, most loyal troops, or would he try and pull them back to Baghdad, as has been summarized?

MR. DINGEMAN: Well, he has been prevented very quickly from doing that by the advance of the 18th Corps and the 7th Corps, which I might add is also where the British 1st Armored Division is operating. The Republican Guards, if the information that we have obtained is accurate, and again weoften take this with a big grain of salt, they have suffered, one of their divisions has suffered 70 percent equipment losses and the other three have suffered that magical number of 50 percent.

MR. MacNeil: Those are the estimates of the allied bomb damage assessment, but they aren't proved on the ground.

MR. DINGEMAN: Exactly. We will prove them obviously when we have successfully achieved our aims of encircling these troops, but these troops with such equipment losses, if you engage them in intensive fighting for several days, they will probably lose another 20 or 30 percent of their strength, and at that point historically, units can just completely disintegrate, and route and surrender. Even with extremely high motivation and training, this is likely to happen. It happened to German SS divisions in World War II and to better formations in any kind of situation.

MR. MacNeil: Gen. Wickham, a senior American officer unidentified told the AP today, we'd better remember that this part up till now was supposed to be easy, we haven't hit the wall yet, the wall will come when we try to close them in, presumably meaning the Republican Guard here. Now given what Baghdad Radio is reporting, is there going to be a wall, or will the wall crumble?

GEN. WICKHAM: It's a bit of both, Robin. There's going to be some resistance. If we close them in, let's make that scenario, that we're able to close them in and that we're going to be allowed to force a surrender here, there could be an effort to try to break out, but my guess is there's likely to be a crumbling. As we said the other night on your program here, there's a fog of war that descends on both sides, and the fog has descended on the Iraqi side. Their tactical commanders have very little knowledge of what is going on in the battle area, very little knowledge, and therefore, the ability to commit reserves and to maneuver, to deal with an obscure battle area, is very circumscribed, and a point about the tanks, the Republican Guards have only some several hundred, less than 500 T-72 tanks. These are the export version of the Soviet tank. They're not the high grade Soviet tank. They're up against over 1200 M-1 A-1s, the very best that we have, and the T-72 export version is no match for the M-1 A-1.

MR. MacNeil: In fact, Gen. Neal said today that 35 of those T- 72s had been destroyed.

GEN. WICKHAM: Right.

MR. MacNeil: Ken Brower, what does that tell you about where that action was taking place? Does that mean it was an initial action down here inside Iraq, or are there T-72s in Kuwait?

MR. BROWER: No. I think it was at the Northwest corner of Kuwait.

MR. MacNeil: Yeah.

MR. BROWER: Given the speed the 7th Corps should make across country, twenty to twenty-five miles an hour, they could get up there in a hurry, but they wouldn't want to press ahead, they'd want to have full fuel tanks full of ammunition, get their supplies North, so -- and those tanks were probably killed by our A-64s, which it's going to turn out to be one of the stars of this war. It's going to get its press right at long last.

MR. MacNeil: Okay. Well, let's leave the Iraqi theater. And we turn now to the fighting in Kuwait. We have two reports. Kwame Holman describes the activities of U.S. Marine and British Naval units, after Henderson Gall of Independent Television News reports from the front in Kuwait.

SANDY GALL, ITN: Saudi troops advance across the desert on the second day of the allied ground offensive to liberate Kuwait. Tanks and armored personnel carriers which crashed their way through Saddam's offenses on the Kuwaiti border yesterday continued to push forward. An American reconnaissance team examined Iraqi bunkers on the outskirts of a small town on the Coast 20 miles North of the border. They spotted six abandoned recoil-less rifles and fired sniper rounds into the bunkers to see if they were occupied. But one or two Iraqi shells did fall among the serried ranks of Saudi armored vehicles. Then in mid morning, the tanks railed North again only to be halted when they encountered some accurate Iraqi artillery fire. The artillery dual got hotter. Shells were falling uncomfortably close now among Saudi tanks and personnel carriers, forcing them to make a minor tactical withdrawal. For the time being, the ground offensive in this particular area was stalled. Then they brought up the heavy stuff, the multiple barreled rocket launchers that can put down a lethal barrage of tons of high explosive in a few seconds. The battle goes on.

MR. HOLMAN: For Marines of the 1st Division, the objective was to head due North, across the Saudi border, and run directly at Kuwait City. They did so with relative ease, meeting minimal resistance, and today were moving into positions on the outskirts of the Kuwaiti capital. The second division Marines advanced alongside the first. They passed abandoned Iraqi bunkers on the way North and like the first, sparred only briefly with the enemy. Those who were wounded were evacuated by helicopter, soon to be airlifted to hospitals back in Saudi Arabia. By nightfall, the Second Division also had closed in on Kuwait City, joining a tightening circle of allied forces with the aim of completely surrounding the Iraqis.

BRIG. GEN. NEAL: Kuwait City, we're moving towards Kuwait City, and we continue to experience success as we move in that direction.

MR. HOLMAN: To the East of Kuwait City, in the Northern Persian Gulf, Marine and Naval forces positioned themselves offshore, well within striking distance. The USS Nassau and 20 other ships made up the amphibious task force. Their mere presence made them an integral part of the battle plan. Maj. Gen. Harry Jenkins is commander of the Marine landing force in the Gulf.

MAJ. GEN. HARRY JENKINS, U.S. Marine Corps: Well, the idea is to keep in mind the numbers of Iraq units we have tied down on the coasts and as long as they're watching the coasts and they're not engaging our units that are in working in Kuwait now to the West, so there again is the viability of the amphibious assault or the forces out here, that we're prepared to go in to do anything that Gen. Schwarzkopf wants us to do.

MR. HOLMAN: The Naval task force is equipped with an air attack that has charged the Kuwaiti coast, only to return to ship. It's to make the Iraqis think an amphibious assault has begun. In the meantime, the U.S. flotilla will continue mine clearing operations, cutting lanes toward the beach in case an assault is ordered. At today's allied briefing in Riyadh, British Commander John Tighe proudly announced that one of his ships had successfully fended off a Silkworm missile attack against the Naval task force.

COM. JOHN TIGHE, British Royal Navy: Whilst it can only be conjecture as to exactly who was the target, clearly the 500 kilograms of warhead inside the Silkworm could well have caused considerable, if not fatal damage to its target, and there's certainly one ship out there at present that has good reason to be thankful to the alert radarman on board H&S Gloucester.

MR. HOLMAN: The Saudi commander announced the one bit of bad news at the briefing, indiscriminate attacks against civilians in Kuwait City.

LT. GEN. KHALID BIN SULTAN, Saudi Arabian Army: There is horrible things going on. I hate to say it, but there is killing people by axes, hitting both heads, they rape females, cut them, certain parts of them, and hang them in every street. There is unfortunately, they even try to force their own Iraqi young, very young soldiers to kill another Kuwaiti children, those type of things which is -- so horrible.

MR. HOLMAN: But Gen. Neal said those atrocities would not affect the coalition's battle plans.

BRIG. GEN. NEAL: We're ahead of schedule, as I've told you, and I think that we're going to deal with that situation as we come upon it, but to try and do something specific and change the plan that might either put at risk U.S. or coalition forces, that would not be prudent planning by military commanders.

MR. MacNeil: We're back again with our military analysts Gen. John Wickham, Jim Dingeman and Ken Brower. Mr. Brower, describe the difficulty of taking Kuwait City and what military priority it has.

MR. BROWER: It's very politically important. It's important to our Arab allies. But there must be thousands and thousands of Iraqi infantry in that city. Middle Eastern cities are built of resilient, reinforced concrete buildings. They take a terrible pounding, they absorb high explosive. There are hundreds of thousands of civilians inside that city. Unless the Iraqis are going to surrender en masse, we should leave it alone, because now that Saddam Hussein has said, leave, they're going to collapse in a matter of days. Street to street fighting is difficult, bloody business, and in any case, given what's happening in Nassariyah, it's a strategic side show.

MR. MacNeil: Is it a strategic side show, General?

GEN. WICKHAM: No, but it is politically important, and I agree that we've got to be very careful about urban operations. They're very dangerous and while our troops are well trained in practice in mock-up areas of urban activity, it's -- you're in street to street fighting, you're going to have to clear buildings, and the potential for injury and wounds is very high. Now how to deal with it -- one way to deal with it, of course, is to surround the area and then begin with psychological warfare, with speakers, loud speakers from helicopters and on the road in Saudi and in the language of the people there to encourage people to surrender and to throw down their arms and then to begin to process people, because you may find some Iraqis that are posing as Kuwaitis. So there are ways of dealing with it without actually going in building by building, and my guess is that we need to be very, very cautious about trying to do building by building until it's clear that we have gotten as many people to surrender as possible. Another dimension, that is boobytraps that are probably laid all over the place, and you open up a door or pick something up, move into a building, step on a wire, you get casualties just by that, even though there are no people there.

MR. MacNeil: A senior officer, Harry Jenkins, the Marine general we just saw interviewed there, said we're going to surround it and cut it off and another officer told the AP our plan is to circle the city and have the Arab forces go in, go in to do the things. Do you know whether that is the plan or not?

MR. DINGEMAN: I certainly don't know myself, but I would add that the question is are the Iraqis who are encircled in Kuwait, are they going to fight like the Russians did in Stalingrad, and I tend to doubt that. Are they going to fight like the Japanese --

MR. MacNeil: Especially if the report we've heard from Baghdad Radio turns out to be true.

MR. DINGEMAN: Exactly. And the other question is that, you know, one has to start by looking at the success of the air campaign. The air campaign has essentially encircled these forces by cutting off their supplies, reducing them, if the reports are accurate to only 10 or 15 percent of what they need daily. So you're already dealing with forces that have been encircled essentially for several weeks, as a result of the air campaign. So when you start on that, with that basis, plus the units have uneven morale, the likelihood of a sudden disintegration as Ken Brower talked about earlier is something that has to be taken as a distinct possibility, something akin to Egypt in the Six Day War.

MR. MacNeil: Gen. Wickham, I know you don't know yet the plan either, and I didn't mean to put it in quite that way to Jim Dingeman, but is it, given American policy in the past, is it likely that that would happen in this situation, given the political realities on the ground, the American troops would go up and then the Arab forces would be the ones to go in and do the street fighting?

GEN. WICKHAM: It may be that there is coordination of the activity because there may not be enough Arab forces to do it, they may not be adequately trained in all of this, but clearly, with their linguistic ability, to be able to sort out the friend from foe, this is an Arab issue and they ought to take on the burden of the first line of movement through the area, and we can work with them, support them with loud speakers and other military equipment, providing over watch to them, but my guess is that the Arab forces are going to play an integral part in whatever clearing or whatever disarming that's going to take place in the city, and I think there's some very important points here. The people that are likely to be left behind are going to recognize that the game's up and they're ultimately going to want to surrender. My guess is that it's likely to be less dangerous than we might have found in another city like Stalingrad or other periods.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Brower, what about the importance of a Marine amphibious landing in this assault on Kuwait City, I mean, is that just -- it sounded as though that's just a psychological weapon at the moment?

MR. BROWER: Now that Saddam Hussein has basically said to his troops no sense fighting guys, it's time to leave, and we're going to be soon announcing they're trapped in any way. It would be icing on the cake and an unnecessary expenditure of risk and lives. The reality is now if I had advice for anyone, I'd say to Prince Sultan, in larger prisoner of war camps get a lot of busses up because you're going to be driving a lot of people North.

MR. MacNeil: What are the dangers, Jim Dingeman, in the Kuwait battle, besides street to street fighting in Kuwait? What other resources if the Iraqis just don't run away, what other resources do they have that could make it very difficult here?

MR. BROWER: Well, just to use the map as an illustration, as we judge from the reports that we have heard, the Marine forces have been thrusting along the coast here and it's been a broad front attack, the Kuwaiti forces have been participating and moving forward, the Egyptians had been moving forward all along the front, and this is an indication that Gen. Schwarzkopf has assumed and gathered from his intelligence forces that the morale of the Iraqi forces is now to the point where a broad front attack is necessary, becauseremember, we were hearing in the press for weeks about the depth and specification of these defenses. Now the pocketing of troops, the envelopment that we have seen occur, I would argue probably has been in this area the bulk of these prisoners --

MR. MacNeil: Twenty thousand or so --

MR. BROWER: Again, yes, I'm not certain, but I would say that it has occurred in this area, and then Gen. Neal in his briefing earlier referred to the different armored formations and mechanized formations that he was encountering in the early stages of the fighting, if one thinks back several weeks ago to the battle of Khafji, the Iraqis have an armored division and a mechanized division in this area in reserve, and most likely, these are formations that have been initially engaged, and according to the fighting, we have essentially eliminated the bulk of a division. Now the question of Kuwait City is an interesting one.

MR. MacNeil: You're basing that on the 270 tanks they say they've destroyed and the 20,000 prisoners, is --

MR. BROWER: No. Well, I'm basing part of that on the 270 tanks. That would equal about roughly an Iraqi army division. I think also the fighting has occurred further North in the area over here. I have a feeling that this initial brigade size or brigade plus force that's coming down from the concentration of the Republican Guard formations and the regular formations here, I believe that that fighting has occurred somewhere in here. It should also be noted that the 7th Corps, which is moving rapidly this way, and the French Corps here, as linking up with the air head here of the 101st Air Assault Division, these forces by now are way over in this area and engaging the Guards. Now the Kuwaiti division which is moving up slowly behind these forces, we saw pictures of them, they're most likely being kept to enter Kuwait City like Gen. LeKlerk's division in 1944 entered Paris for political reasons.

MR. MacNeil: I see. Okay. Well, we'll have to leave it there, gentlemen. John Dingeman, Ken Brower, and Gen. Wickham, thank you all.

MR. LEHRER: Finally tonight a human side of the war story. Twenty-five thousand Army soldiers from Ft. Hood, Texas, are on duty in the Gulf. Betty Ann Bowser reports on the anxious moments for families there as the ground war began.

SPOKESPERSON: For you have made the Lord my refuge --

MS. BOWSER: It is the noon deadline on Saturday. While millions of Americans are glued to their television sets, members of the Women's Bible Study Group of the 1st Baptist Church of Colleen, Texas, discuss the 91st Psalm. Debbie Weicht's husband, Steve, is an army captain.

DEBBIE WEICHT, Army Spouse: If evil hits, then the security that I have from this, I know that I will one day, someday be together with Steve again.

MS. BOWSER: There are more than 100 men and women from the First Baptist Church currently serving in the Persian Gulf. So practically every member of this church is either related to or knows someone over there. The church is taking care of its own through a program called the Desert Storm Ministry. Every First Baptist soldier has been assigned a family to pray for him or her. Still, with backing from both their church and their community, the past few days have been an emotional time for the wives left behind. Tina Smith's husband, Doug, is a captain with the Army's First Cavalry. Late Saturday, she talked about her fears while her husband prepared for a ground war.

TINA SMITH, Army Spouse: There's times which you look out your front door and you think it's kind of this funeral dirge music playing in the back of your mind and you watch to see the casualty assistance officers, what door they're going to stop at. You wonder how you're going to handle it, how you're going to support the people that it happens to.

MS. BOWSER: 9:30 AM Sunday, Tina and Debbie attend Sunday school, buoyed by the optimistic early ground war reports.

TINA SMITH, Army Spouse: It's uphill, it's uphill right now. I feel good about it. I think that we're finally getting our goals accomplished and doing what we need to do.

MS. BOWSER: By late Sunday afternoon, Debbie is falling events in the ground war on television with her two children.

DEBBIE WEICHT, Army Spouse: It's been a roller coaster. I've been up and down. You get scared. I got scared right after it all started, and I kept thinking, well, what's he doing now, what is he specifically doing right at this moment? Is he going through the sand, is he gung ho gone, or is he back in the back doing something, what's he doing? Is he in danger? Is he hurt? Is he sleeping? I doubt it seriously. Is he eating? Is he okay?

MS. BOWSER: For now, Steve is okay. Debbie received a call from another wife who got a call from yet another wife, who talked to the wife of Steve's company commander whose husband called from the Gulf to say all his soldiers are alive and safe. Until it's over, Debbie tries to keep busy doing volunteer babysitting at the church, humoring and reassuring the children. RECAP

MR. LEHRER: In non-Gulf War news, the Warsaw Pact nations formally ended their military alliance today. They did it in Budapest, signing an agreement they will close down military functions by March 31st. It brought to an end 35 years of military cooperation between the nations of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. After the signing ceremony, Hungary's foreign minister said, "The military bloc system as such has come to an end today.

MR. MacNeil: Recapping the Gulf War news of this Monday, the second day of the ground campaign, Baghdad Radio tonight reported Saddam Hussein ordered his troops to withdraw from Kuwait. The radio report said the order had been made in accordance with the Soviet peace proposal. White House spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said the administration had received no official communication from Iraq. He said, "The war goes on." The Soviet Union reportedly presented a new peace initiative during closed door consultations of the United Nations Security Council. The report said the initiative was similar to terms set by Pres. Bush last week, calling for total Iraqi withdrawal without conditions. Also today, an Iraqi Scud missile hit a U.S. military barracks near Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, killing at least 12 servicemen. Twenty-five were wounded and more than forty are still missing. Allied troops continued their advance into Kuwait and Southern Iraq. Military commanders said nearly 20,000 Iraqi prisoners were captured and 270 Iraqi tanks destroyed. They said U.S. casualty figures from the first day of fighting were four dead, twenty-one wounded. Finally tonight, the Pentagon has identified two more U.S. servicemen killed in action in the Persian Gulf War. We close tonight's program with their names. Good night, Jim.

MR. LEHRER: Good night, Robin. We'll see you tomorrow night with more coverage of the war in the Persian Gulf. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.