The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer; May 22, 2006

I'm Gwen Eiffel today's news, Iraq's new government, the coming hurricanes, Ray Negan's victory and the crippled thoroughbred tonight on the news hour. Good evening, I'm Gwen Eiffel, Jim Lara is off on the news hour tonight, the news of

this Monday, then a look at the new government in Iraq. Can it stem the violence and build political stability? Summers coming and so is the new hurricane season. We look at the forecast. The scattered citizens of New Orleans elect a mayor and Barbara's bad break can his prickness injury be repaired. Major funding for the news hour with Jim Lara has been provided by. The world's demand for energy will never stop, which is why a farmer is growing corn, and a farmer is growing soy, and why ADN is turning these crops into biofuels. The world's demand for energy will never stop, which is why ADN will never stop. We're only getting started, ADN, resourceful by nature.

There's a company that builds more than a million vehicles a year in places called Indiana and Kentucky, one that has 10 plants from the foothills of West Virginia to the Pacific coastline. What company is this? Toyota, a company that along with its dealers and suppliers has helped create hundreds of thousands of U.S. jobs, a company proud to do its small part to add to the landscape of America. And by Pacific Life, C-I-T, and the Atlantic Philanthropies, and this program was made possible by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, and by contributions to your PBS station from viewers like you. Thank you. The leader of Iraq's new government offered a timetable today for taking over security.

Nouri Al-Maliki was sworn in on Saturday, along with most of his cabinet. Today he said Iraqi forces could assume control of much of the country by years and the exceptions would be Baghdad and Anbar Province, where much of the insurgency is based. In Chicago, President Bush said Iraq is now at a turning point. The new Iraqi government does not change America's objectives or our commitment, but it will change how we achieve those objectives and how we honor our commitment. And the new Iraqi government grows in confidence and capability America will play an increasingly supporting role. British Prime Minister Blair was in Baghdad today. He would not say when 8,000 British troops might leave, as Blair visited bombings and shootings around the country killed at least 29 Iraqis. And the U.S. military announced a U.S. Marine was killed yesterday in Western Iraq. We'll have more honor Iraq right after this new summary.

U.S. airstrikes in Afghanistan killed as many as 80 suspected insurgents overnight. Local Afghan authorities said 17 civilians were killed as well. The target was a Taliban stronghold in Kandahar Province, fighting in that region has sharply increased in recent days. The 2006 hurricane season could be busier than usual again. The National Hurricane Center today forecast 4 to 6 major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. It predicted as many as 16 named storms down from last year's record of 28. In Miami, Center Director Max Mayfield said, all in all, it's not good news. It's not all about the numbers. It just takes that one hurricane of your house to make for a bad year. And what I also want you to be sure that you hear is the fact that the research meteorologists are telling us that we're in this very active period for major hurricanes

that may last at least another 10 to 20 years. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. We'll have more on this story later in the program. An independent report today found New Orleans levy system was routinely underfunded before Hurricane Katrina. The study was led by scientists at the University of California at Berkeley. It faulted Congress for peace, meal, funding, and blamed local and state authorities for poor maintenance. The study said the levees failed because of poor engineering and weak soil. New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin appealed Sunday for unity to secure the city and to rebuild. He defeated Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landru in Saturday's runoff election. We'll have more on this story later in the program. Oil companies did not illegally inflate gasoline prices after Hurricane Katrina. The Federal Trade Commission released that finding today. It did find 15 cases of price gouging, but it said the overall cause was supply and demand.

Gas prices dropped in the last two weeks for the first time since February. And the latest Lumburg survey, the national average was $2.93 a gallon down about a penny and a half. The survey included 7,000 gas stations. Palestinian factions fought a new gun battle today in Gaza. It raised growing fears of a civil war. We have a report from Julian Manion of Independent Television News. Shooting broke out near the parliament building and soon masked Hamas gunmen were crawling forward to exchange shots with the pro fatter Palestinian police. A driver from the Jordanian Embassy tried to get out through the crossfire, but a bullet hit him and the car rolled back out of control. Inside the driver was dying and a dash to hospital could not save his life.

It's not clear how this incident began, but what is clear is that firing is now broken out in several different locations with bullets ricocheting off the buildings around us. Nearby Hamas fired a rocket grenade at a vehicle of the pro fatter Palestinian security force. These are the Hamas Khasambregates, hardened by years of fighting the Israelis, now trying to consolidate their movement's power after its victory in the Palestinian elections. It was the Hamas decision to put thousands of its militants into the streets that sparked the latest clashes. This morning, before the fighting began, one of their leaders told me that they are there to help the police keep law and order, not to start a civil war. Will there be civil war between fatter and Hamas? We are not speaking about the civil war. We are speaking about protecting the life and the money and the people in our streets. But civil war, civil war to not have it, to not have it, but in a way.

But tonight, 15 injured Palestinians are being treated in hospital, and the bullets that hit them were fired not by Israelis, but by their own people. At least eight people have died in the violence during the last two weeks. Montenegro voted Sunday to secede from Serbia and form a separate nation. Just over 55 percent of the voters approve the move, but the pro-servient camp demanded a recount. If the vote stands, the last vestiges of the former Yugoslavia will be erased. Congressman William Jefferson refused to say today if he took part in a bribery scheme. On Sunday, FBI agents searched his Capitol Hill office, and affidavit supporting the search said that Louisiana Democrat was caught on video accepting $100,000 from an informant. Much of that money, the FBI said, was later found in the freezer of Jefferson's Washington home. The Congressman allegedly planned to bribe a high Nigerian official to ensure a business deal. Today, Jefferson refused to discuss any specifics.

There are two sides to every story. There are 32 sides of this story. There will be an appropriate time and form when that can be explained and explicated. But this is not the time, this is not the form, and operating on advice that counsel, I will not get into facts. The Congressman has not been charged with any crime. He said today, he will not resign. The veteran's affairs department confirmed today someone has stolen data on more than 26 million veterans. An employee took the data home this month without permission, and that home was burglarized. Officials said today there is no indication anyone has used the data. It includes names and social security numbers. A near tragedy in the horse racing world took a hopeful turn today. The condition of barbero improved one day after a five-hour operation. The Kentucky Derby winner broke his leg at the previous stakes on Saturday. Today's update came from the surgeon Dr. Dean Richardson at the University of Pennsylvania.

This morning he is walking around the stall with an acceptable level of comfort about what we would expect at this point postoperatively. But the most important thing is he is recovered fully from the anesthesia, and he is woken up completely. He is very, very bright. He is trying to bite people, which is a very good, normal thing in a three-year-old cult. We will have more on this story at the end of the program. On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 18 points to close at 11,125. The NASDAQ Bell 21 points to close below 21,73. The head of the World Health Organization died today in Geneva after surgery for a blood clot on his brain. Since 2003, South Korean Lee Jong-Wook has led efforts against SARS and AIDS. He also organized preparations for a possible bird flu pandemic. Lee was 61 years old. pioneering dancer Catherine Dunham died Sunday in New York. She was known for bringing African

and Caribbean influences to dance. In the late 1930s, she organized the nation's first self-supporting all-black modern troop. Dunham was an early advocate of civil rights and she refused to perform at segregated theaters. She was 96 years old. That's it for the new summary tonight. Now, Iraq's new leaders, hurricanes on the horizon, Mayor Nagan's win, and Barbara's broken bones. Margaret Warner has the Iraq story. Iraq's new government got a rousing show of support today from the two foreign leaders whose armies toppled Saddam Hussein. Griddish prime minister Tony Blair flew to Baghdad to congratulate new prime minister Nuri Al Maliki for finally putting together a government. It's been three years of struggle to try to get to this point. And it has been longer

and harder than any of us would have wanted it to be. But this is a new beginning. And we want to see what you want to see, which is Iraq and the Iraqi people, able to take charge of their own destiny. President Bush called the new government a watershed event during the speech in Chicago, and he called on the new Iraqi leadership to embrace a common vision. This common vision is critical to the new government's success. Although Iraq's new leaders come from many different ethnic and religious communities, they made clear they will govern as Iraqis. They know that the strategy of the terrorists and the insurgents is to divide Iraq along sectarian lines. Iraq's new leaders know they have a great deal of

work ahead to broaden the base of their government and unite the people. They also understand that representing all Iraqis and not just narrow sectarian interests, they will be able to make a decisive break with the past and make a future of progress and opportunity for all their people at reality. The Iraqi parliament approved the new cabinet on Saturday after more than five months of post-election wrangling. Prime Minister Maliki presented a cabinet of 37 members, a majority RCI, with eight Sunnis, eight Kurds, and one Christian. Four ministers are women. But the televised ceremony was marked by protests and a walkout by some Sunni parliamentarians unhappy over how posts were allocated. More ominously, Maliki was unable to choose ministers for three key agencies, national security, defense which oversees the Iraqi army, and interior which controls the police. On Sunday after the first cabinet meeting, Prime

Minister Maliki publicly vowed to end the violence that is consuming his country. We are aware of the security challenge, its dimensions and effects. So we believe that facing this challenge cannot be achieved through the use of force only, despite the fact that we are going to use the maximum force in confronting the terrorists and the killers who are shedding blood. But in addition to this, military and security measure, we also need national reconciliation measures. But the violence across Iraq continued unabated over the weekend, where then three dozen people were killed in car bombings and shootings. And for more now, we turn to Laith Kuba, who served as spokesman for Iraq's previous government, from April 2005 until January of this year, Thabat Abdullah, an associate professor of history at York University in Toronto, he has written several books about Iraq, both he and Laith Kuba were born in Iraq. And joining them is near Rosen, a journalist and author. He has spent extended time in

Iraq since the invasion and recently returned from a six-week stint there. His new book in the belly of the Greenberg, the triumph of the martyrs in Iraq was published this month. And welcome to you all. President Bush today used rather sweeping language to describe this watershed event. He said a decisive moment, a turning point. Professor Abdullah, do any of those apply? I believe that President Bush did strike the important tone in his speech. He talked about the need to set aside sectarian differences. He praised the different parties for coming together and forming a national unity government, which was a major demand in Iraq. He also mentioned, and this was not in your piece, the errors that the United States had committed in the past three years, including the Abu Ghreib scandal, which I think is still ways

very heavily on the minds of Iraqis. So I think, I think generally his speech was good. I do not, however, believe that this is a watershed period. I believe it is a positive step, though, rather limited and incremental, small step, but it is a positive step. I knew, Rosen, how does it feel to you? I mean, is this a turning point? Is this a small positive step? Where would you put it on the scale? Well, since the occupation began, we've heard of many turning points and many milestones. The creation of the governing council, the handover of sovereignty, the various elections, the various battles, we've turned the point, we've broken the back, but nothing has changed. In fact, teams have gotten worse. I think this is actually a rather insignificant event, because events inside the Greens don't have no effect on the reality outside and Baghdad where militias control the street, where there's a civil war raging, an open civil war between Sunni and Shia militias. And this new government is not going to change that. If anything,

Maliki is at least as ideologically committed to Shia power into preventing any sort of national reconciliation, despite his overt statements to the contrary. Life Cuba, an insignificant event, a turning point? Well, there is no question it is a success and it's a positive step in the right direction, but we need to put it in context. Iraq is not in a good shape, but if Iraq is to become better, then the key to it is a consolidated political process and a government of national unity. And I think the way this government has put together indicates that, instead of just simply having two or three main blocks forming the government, we have now four blocks forming the government, which more or less is inclusive. So I think in the Iraqi context, it consolidates the political process, it proves at least although slow, although in the eyes of many, not fast enough, but at least it is heading the right direction. And I hope

it will consolidate and succeed. Professor Abdullah, how do you see this in terms of how relevant what's happening in the Green Zone to pick up Mr. Rosen's point is to really the carnage we're seeing in the streets? And do you think this new government will make a difference on that point? I think it will, though I think the points that Mr. Rosen mentioned are well taken. But the fact is that the militias that are in the streets have an allegiance to many of the parties that are now in the government. For example, the better brigades, the Matty Army, the various militias of the Kurdish parties, these are the primary militias in the streets that Mr. Rosen is talking about. It is the leaders of these militias that are coming together and trying to establish some kind of a reconciliation, some kind of an agreement, some kind of a national vision. It is extremely complicated, it's very sloppy, but I do

think that it will reflect in the street with time. Mr. Rosen, do you think the people in this new government, and Mr. Maliki, are the kinds of leaders who will set aside their sectarian and ethnic allegiances in the interest of governing with a common agenda? No, unfortunately, I don't. I think it's just too late. It's true that there are parties in the government that control militias, but the most powerful militia, the Matty Army, which controls the police and the army, their allegiance is to Muktara Sutter, who is in Najev. The Kurdish militias, their allegiance is to their leaders in Erbil and in Sulaymania. The Sunni militias have their allegiance to the Anbar province, to Western Baghdad. The leaders are not inside the green zone. Their leaders are spread out throughout the country. I believe sectarianism is just so entrenched at this point that we're really at the point of no return. I came back, if anything, feeling a sense of duty to warn that

the civil war is raging and is about to get much worse. I don't think anything can be done at this point to stop it. Do you think sectarianism has just taken off now and it can't be called back? Let us first know that the reason why things deteriorated and we have militias is because government has been absent for a while and we did not build national institutions, army of police fast enough. The key to doing that is getting political agreements. I don't think people will change their mindsets or policies, but they need to live with each other. There is no other way. The country can break down, but maybe after two years they meet again to know that they have to live with each other. But are you saying that you think the people in this government, one, are committed to having a real unity government, as opposed to pursuing their sectarian agendas, and two, picking up on the point Mr. Rosenmade, do you think they, where do you come down to this question about whether they really have influence over some of these militias that are

operating? Well, I think out of self-interest, not out of national duty, they will reach a compromise, not because they are not sectarian, but because even if they were to take the sectarian path, their interests are served better if there is to be a government, otherwise they are going to be violence all over. And on the second point, I think if a government is in place with an agreement, with a blueprint agreement, then yes, they can exert authority and they can put all these guns, not immediately. It will take some time, but I think we will see a decline in violence. Mr. Rosen, what's your response to that? I mean, isn't it not possible that the leaders of these various factions will actually see it in their self-interest now to participate in the government and to turn away from trying to settle everything in the streets and try to settle it through politics? It's possible, and I hope so. It's paying me to see Iraq descend into this violence, but I came back three weeks ago, and in all of my trips over the past three years, I've

seen it get worse and worse. And when I left, there were dozens of dead bodies on the street every day that had been tortured and executed, just because they were Sunni and just because they were Shia. And when Prime Minister Maliki talks about using maximum force against the terrorists and the killers, to Sunni's, this means he's going to use maximum force against Sunnis. And to Shia militias, this means that they are going to use maximum force against Sunnis. At this point, to Sunnis, all Shia's are Iranians, are infidels, are apostates. And to Shia's, all Sunnis are terrorists, are bastists, are Saddamists. I believe that at this point, they've just excluded each other from their vision, from me, their respective visions of Iraq's futures. And I saw no positive signs when I was in Iraq of any sort of reconciliation, looked at a setter, the former voice of a joint Sunni Shia front against the American occupation. I think maybe at one point he was the only hope for Sunni Shia unity, has turned against the Sunnis, starting in late 2005. And his

militias are openly going into Sunni neighborhoods and acting as deskwads. So I just feel completely hopeless. Professor Abdullah, it's not that I disagree with Mr. Rosen at all. It's just that it seems to me, as a historian also, I take a much longer view of this. This is not the first time that Iraq has plunged into such a miserable condition. And it has always pulled back from the brink of civil war. There has never been in the history of Iraq and all-out sectarian civil war. This is not to say that this might not be the first time in its history. And it is getting very close to that. And indeed, the country is staring at the abyss. But there are some positive signs. The very fact that these leaders of these sectarian parties have gotten together and tried to set aside their differences in order to save themselves. I agree completely with what Lefkupa said, it's out of self-preservation, out of really a personal selfish interest that I believe that

reason will ultimately prevail. And the country will pull back from the brink of civil war. And when, let me just follow up. If I may just add one last point, the situation is complicated by the American presence, by the Iranian presence. And there's also some positive signs on that front with the positions that Ambassador Khalizat has taken with the overtures for American Iranian negotiations over the status of Iraq. These are hopeful signs. These are not guaranteed success formulas. But they are hopeful, certainly. Lefkupa, when Maliki talks about, as he did yesterday, using maximum force to get a handle on the terrorists, what is he talking about? What are the maximum forces he can command and know that he can command? I think there are good numbers of trained Iraqis now, and there are foreign troops in the country under more or less his command. So it's not lack of force. But I do agree

that one needs to be careful where to direct that force. And not at all. I don't share the view that was expressed. It will be against the Sunnis. Yes, there is fear and apprehension on both sides. But I think having listened to Maliki and his tone, he realizes the need to reassert authority of government. Iraqis are used to strong government, to an authority being in place. People will respond to it positively. And if he can push that posture with some action in the street, I think it will benefit everybody. So near Rosen, you said what you thought the Iraqi people were hearing when they heard him talking about maximum force. But do you think he has forces he can command that will serve him and serve a unified government and move against, say, these Shiite militias in the street? I think the most serious problem in Iraq today is that the police in Iraq are the Mahdi army. I think that they are virtually indistinguishable. When you see Mahdi army

processions or security events, they are off duty policemen. They have police issue black pistols. They have police issue handcuffs. When you see police cars, they have mukta the other posters or stickers. Likewise with the army. So it's not that they have taken over the army of the police. They are the army in the police. So there are very strong Shia forces. That's true. I just don't believe that they view themselves as a pan Iraqi force. I think that they view themselves as there to prevent any sort of Sunni dominance. They're there at this point to punish Sunnis for the Samar Shryan bombing in February 22nd for three years of Zarqawi's daily attacks. They finally lost their patients and they've been taking the fight to the Sunni street. When I was there, there were many dead bodies. People killed just because they were called Omar, for example, a quintessential Sunni name. People found with their hands in the Sunni prayer position. Like this, basically a statement saying, Sunnis, we are killing you because you're Sunni. I hope that Iraqis

will hear the call of a new government. I just feel like on the street, the violence is so terrible. They hit you to so terrible. I think we might be too late. All right. Near Rosen, Professor Abdullah and Leethcuba, thank you all. Still to come on the news hour tonight, Barbaross breaks and the task ahead for Ray Nagin. But first, I'll look at what could complicate the mayor's job. The outlook for hurricanes as the season begins. Earlier today, I spoke with Richard Pash, senior specialist at the National Hurricane Center. Richard Pash, welcome. You are predicting four to six major hurricanes this year. How does that compare to what we experienced last year? Last year, we had seven major hurricanes. We also had 28 named storms last year, which was by far the most active hurricane season in history. We're not forecasting a repeat of last

year. You never predict those kind of record shattering seasons. But the conditions we're looking at out there right now, it doesn't look very good if we're trying to avoid having more hurricanes develop out there. The Atlantic waters are warmer than normal. Not as warm as they were last year, but still warm. And the upper winds look like they're becoming favorable with weak vertical shear. And that would encourage development and intensification of hurricanes. And we don't have an El Nino episode in the Pacific to offset any of these favorable conditions. I could produce some shearing winds as well. We don't see that. The La Nino or cold water episode in the eastern Pacific starting to fade or is pretty much faded away. So it's kind of a neutral condition out there. But overall, it looks unfortunately like we're going to have another visit here. But if we had more hurricanes last year, then we're predicted. Is it fair to assume there will be more hurricanes this year than you're now predicting? Well, I don't think you could look at it that way. You could just say there's more uncertainty at this stage. Last year, actually, our forecast at the beginning

of the season and late May wasn't quite as much as what we're predicting this year. So it's a question of certainty. Last year, we weren't sure that the El Nino event wasn't going to develop and hinder development of storms. This year, we're just saying this far in advance, we need to hedge our bets a little bit and not say with absolute certainty, it's going to be really high number of storms. But as I said, it does look favorable for an active season. Distinguished, what you mean for us between named storms and major hurricanes? Okay, named storms are any system that reaches tropical storms, strength or greater. That's sustained winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. Hurricane means that the tropical cyclone is acquired sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or higher. Major hurricanes mean they have sustained winds near 100 greater than 111 miles per hour, 111 miles per hour or higher. Those are the hurricanes that we call category three, four or five on this Afro-Simpson hurricane scale. And they're the ones that do the majority of

cause the majority of the damage if they strike land. In a briefing earlier today, one of your colleagues said that there was an expectation that we are in an unusually active period that could last for 10 or 20 years. Does that mean that it's just going to get worse and worse and worse? Well, I'm not saying we're not saying it's going to get worse and worse, but it's going to stay bad more likely in any year than good. Strong El Ninos, the warm water episode, the Pacific can disrupt activity, such as 1997 was a quiet year, 2002 was a relatively quiet year. So those years are examples that is still hoped you can get a quiet season in the midst of this active multi-decadal cycle we're in. But we can just harken back to the 1940s and 50s and early 60s when we had lots of storms, major storms and a lot of hurricanes hitting florida in particular for an example of one of those other active periods. I know that you guys felt last year that you predicted a lot of what we saw come to pass, especially with Katrina and that people were

maybe just not listening. Do you sense that there is a culture of preparedness to use a term I heard today that has set in as a result of what we saw last year? Yeah, I think it's has to have that effect. I don't think there's any question. The human nature is such that they would respond to the kind scenes of catastrophe that they saw out there and the amount of misery and the amount of death and destruction caused by these storms. That they're saying we need to take some action this time. We're not going to let this happen to us again. There's always a percentage of the population that fails to respond adequately. We know that it's unfortunate. We never seem to get quite the evacuation response that we like or that emergency management and local government officials would like. But by and large, I think the effect of last year, if there's anything good that could be said coming out of last year is that there's an awareness level. I think that's extremely heightened. However, the officials on Louisiana are saying that their infrastructure is still bad or that they are not still not returned to pre- Katrina levels. What can individuals be doing? Well, individuals need to do there maybe more so than, but everybody needs to do this

is to have a hurricane plan. Know what am I going to do if another hurricane is threatening to strike? If the prediction is for to make landfall near me and I'm in the hurricane warning area, it depends on your situation. If you're on the Mississippi coast living in one of those trailers, clearly you're not going to be able to stay there during a hurricane. No mobile home is safe on a hurricane. So your situation is your plan is you're going to have to get out and take whatever positions you have to protect them because there's a possibility that this trailer could be totally destroyed. If you're in an inland location in a well-constructed building and you're not a recommended evacuation area, then you need to make plans of saying, okay, you need to stay because you want to avoid getting involved in this massive traffic jams with people evacuating, but you need to have a supply a hurricane kit of drinking water, non-perishable food, fuel, things of that nature, for at least a three-day period, so that you can survive on your own without any outside assistance. So the hurricane plan varies from individual to individual from

household to household, but everybody should have one if they're in the hurricane zone. Okay, Richard Prash, of the National Hurricane Center, thank you very much. Okay, do well. Now, post Katrina politics as New Orleans voters choose a mayor. Ray Suarez has the story. Though New Orleans is still suffering nine months after Katrina, a majority of voters this weekend chose not to punish incumbent mayor Ray Negan, giving him four more years in office. I want to thank all the wonderful people of the city of New Orleans for this encouragement, for this victory, for this time for us to set the stage for our recovery. Negan led all candidates in the first ground and picked up enough new supporters to defeat currently tenant governor Mitch Landru by roughly 52 to 48%. Of course, I want to congratulate

Mayor Negan. This was a hard fought campaign. It was fought well within the boundaries of political discourse. The race was not nearly as nasty as previous mayoral battles. The results did split largely along racial lines. Fewer than half the city's 455,000 pre hurricane residents are still in the city now divided about equally among blacks and whites. Landru's father, Moon, was the last white mayor to lead New Orleans in the 70s. Landru won a majority of the white vote and picked up more local endorsements during the campaign. But Negan, a former cable television executive, captured 80% of the black vote and convinced enough white conservatives that his business background would help return the city to pre-Katrina glory. Negan has vowed to solve the severe housing shortage and remove the mountains of debris, just two of the lingering problems that have kept thousands of evacuees scattered across the country.

It's time for us to get together and rebuild this city. And when we rebuild this city, we rebuild the entire state. The mayor also said he'd improve strained relations with Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco and his own city council. His second term begins May 31st, one day before the start of the new hurricane season. For more, I'm joined by Silas Lee, a professor of sociology at Xavier University and head of his own public opinion research company. He's a consultant to the Democratic National Committee and has worked for Mayor Negan as a poster in this year's campaign. He's done additional work for the mayor in the past. And Susan Howell joins us, a professor of political science at the University of New Orleans. She's not affiliated with any of the candidates. Professor Lee, in the first round of the election, Mayor Negan got 38%. Who did he add to his coalition to get to 50% plus one? Well, it was a very unusual political marriage here. You had white conservatives coming together

to support Mayor Negan because they were closely aligned in his political philosophy and they did not like the Landru family. Basically, they felt Mitch Landru was too much of a traditional Democrat. They had African-Americans supporting the mayor because of the belief that it was very important to keep him in office to symbolic significance of it, as well as many believe that he was unfairly criticized for his performance after Hurricane Katrina. And that criticism was shared by African-Americans, as well as whites. So he was able to enhance his voter support with African-Americans in the process, as well as increases voter support with whites in the primary. Mayor Negan received about 60% of the black vote. And in the runoff, it went to 80% and in some precincts, 90% in the primary man, Negan hit in a single digits with white voters anywhere from 6 to 8% in some precincts. And in the runoff, he was able to increase that up to the 20% range. Those two factors were extremely critical in helping Mayor Negan win on Saturday night.

And another fact is that Mitch Landru ran more as an alternative to Mayor Negan, rather than a strong challenger. Many voters could not distinguish the platforms of Mitch Landru and Mayor Negan. But Professor Hal, do you share that analysis? And what do you see in the results that show that for more voters, ideology may have trumped race this time around? Well, I think, first of all, we have to backtrack and say this was a tremendous political accomplishment for Mayor Negan. He came out of the primary as an underdog. I think most observers including myself thought that Landru had an advantage. The mayor was outspent 6 to 1. Most of the endorsements went to Landru. And the mayor accomplished something very difficult. And Silas was describing it as he expanded the black electorate. He brought in more voters. Voter turnout increased in heavily black precincts. And this somewhat became a cause, a cause of black solidarity.

In that case, it was a sort of a racial issue. But ideology may have come in on the white side where you have white, conservative, and moderate voters who were in play. And they were looking at these two candidates, neither of which they were crazy about, and ended up voting for the one they were least uncomfortable with. There were a couple of key endorsements by a Republican and by a woman in the race who were very pro-change. And they, I think, increased white moderates and conservatives comfort level in voting for the mayor. And after all, some of these white voters probably voted for the mayor in 2002. So on the white side, yes, ideology came into play. I think on the African American side, it became more of a cause of solidarity. Well, you heard Professor Lee suggest that Mitch Landru ran as an alternative, but didn't set himself apart quite enough. But he had so many advantages, endorsements from a lot of elected

officials, a six to one money gap toward the end of the race. How come he couldn't parlay some of those advantages into more votes? Well, that's what we both, you know, we were both kind of surprised at this outcome. But I think we both explained it by the black solidarity on the African American side. And Mitch Landru had a very liberal voting record in the legislature. He has very low ratings by business groups. So for white voters who are looking really closely at this and looking for a business-oriented candidate, it's very easy to choose Nagin because he's been that way throughout his administration. And there's another factor, I think, that came through in the debates and in the last maybe week. Mayor Nagin showed a command of information that only an incumbent would know. He clearly was the most knowledgeable candidate or appeared to be the most knowledgeable. I mean, he just knew too many details. He's unscripted. Sometimes he,

you know, he says things are that, you know, may not be politically correct. But that's always been part of his charm for us in New Orleans. I think Landru, on the other hand, was much more programmed. And it was very difficult to see a silo, said, what's the difference between that he and Nagin were? But it was also difficult sometimes to pull out of what he said, what his specific proposals for change were. So I think there's a personality for the intangible personality factor weighed in pretty much on the side of Nagin. Well, Professor Lee, let's talk about what happens now. Whoever was going to be the next mayor of New Orleans, they've got a pretty tough job ahead. Is there money that's now ready to come into the city that's going to have to be managed by the reelected Mayor Nagin? What's about to happen to New Orleans? Well, first Mayor Nagin must articulate an agenda, a vision for the rebuilding. Many people, they are still confused and they're still in a state of shock based

on the events of Hurricane Katrina. So he must answer who, what, when, where, and how for the residents of this community, who will be in charge of various initiatives? When will it happen? How will it happen? People want to know what should they do next? Prior to number one, the levees. Until we are able to get the levees up to a category four or five, it's going to be very difficult to convince people that it's okay to come back to New Orleans for businesses to invest in this community and also for residents to feel comfortable with rebuilding. Then you have to look at the other issue and that's housing, affordable housing. If you do not have affordable housing as impossible to attract workers or to get people to come back to the city and to live and to work. And aside from that, we have the infrastructure problems and the institutional issues, public education, healthcare, the economy. All of those pre-Katrina issues, they are now intensified in a post-Katrina environment. So it's a tremendous balancing act. The mayor must be

part political who-dini right now in order to accomplish some of the goals. And bear in mind, he will have incremental levels of success. We are looking at it five to 10-year-on-longer rebuilding effort. When you look at the progress that's occurred in this community, yes, someone's been made, but other areas, a significant portion of this community, it still looks like Katrina hit a few days ago. Well Professor Hal, let me jump in just to get your read on whether this new mandate and this reelection gives mannegan the freedom to be more specific about the final footprint of the city, which neighborhoods are going to be rebuilt and which are not. Briefly, please. Absolutely. It gives him a lot more authority because now he's going to be the mayor for the next four years. We doesn't have to be distracted by a campaign. People are not going to speculate about whether he's vulnerable or not. It gives him a lot more

authority to talk about the possibility that some neighborhoods may not be rebuilt and he's already doing that. He's already saying that we're going to re-look at this issue which would have been political suicide during the campaign and say maybe some areas will be green space, but we have to provide for some compensation for the people whose homes we're taking. But he's actually talking about accumulating land, public land that would become public land. So yes, we are seeing and take immediately in 24 hours since his election, a more aggressive stand on the footprint. Professor Hal, Professor Lee, thank you both. Thank you. Finally tonight, the tough break for a racing horse and the major medical efforts to save him. Jeffrey Brown has the story. Just seconds after the horse is sprinted out of the gate, the odds on favorite for winning the

previous stakes shattered his right rear ankle. As more than 100,000 fans watched at the Pimlico racetrack in Baltimore, Barbara suffered an injury that ended his racing career and could lead to the loss of his life. The excitement and the roar of the crowd when the horses go in the gate is like nothing you will experience, but it quickly turned to definitely gasps of disbelief and then just utter silence. Jockey Edgar Prado and owner Gretchen Jackson consoled each other as Barbara was taken to Pennsylvania in an ambulance. Barbara comes up on the outside and he takes the lead. Just two weeks ago, Barbara burst onto the national sports scene with an overwhelming victory at the Kentucky Derby. He was pegged as one of the best horses to come to the sport in a quarter century with a legitimate chance to sweep the triple crown. Racing's ultimate prize which has not been done since 1978. Yesterday after Barbara was stabilized, doctors at the University

of Pennsylvania's new Bolton Center, a top animal hospital, performed a five-hour surgery. They used a metal plate and 23 screws to fuse the ankle before putting it in a cast. Dr. Dean Richardson, the chief surgeon, told reporters afterwards that there was no indication of previous injury and said it was just a bad step. He put the colds chance of survival at 50-50. You're talking about a 12 to 1300 pound horse bearing weight on basically pieces of stainless steel that are put into hold his bones together and that's not a sure thing. Nothing is absolutely assured that everything will hold and that the fracture will heal adequately. This afternoon at least, doctors were upbeat and said Barbara was acting quote bright and appropriately frisky. And for more, I'm joined by Andrew Bier, a sports columnist for The Washington Post. He's written four books on racing. And veterinarian Dr. Celeste

Coons, former chief examining veterinarian for the New York Racing Association. Welcome to both of you. Andy Bier, an injured horse, is suddenly on the front page. What makes this such a big deal? You know, in the last few years, we've had a lot of horses going for the triple crown who've been overhyped perhaps, but Barbara was the real thing. This was a horse who had speed and stamina. He was a great runner on both dirt and grass. He'd won the Kentucky Derby by the biggest margin in the half a century. I thought he was going to not only win the triple crown, but go on defeats that were unprecedented in the history of the sport. And to see that horse, a national television, trying to retain his balance on three legs with such a wrenching site that, I mean, obviously, it touched a nation, but I mean, and even I think the most hardcore gamblers in the grandstand. Even they fully moved, absolutely. Dr. Coons, a lot of people are left wondering

why a broken leg, which is routine for humans, would be life-threatening for a horse. What's the answer? Well, the physiology of the horse is completely different. It's imperative that they use all four legs because their gastrointestinal system and their circulation is dependent on that. It's tied together. So after the surgery, it was very, very important that Barbara would be able to rise and use all four legs, which he did. And in the race itself, these horses, I mean, I gather an ankle is called upon to support an incredible amount of weight, I guess, and at very high speeds. Unfortunately, he was able to run a little bit after he sustained the fracture. I was watching by television. I could see the distortion above and below the ankle. So I, from my ears, as a track veterinarian, I knew he broke at least those two bones. I think it's a testament to the

skill of Edgar Prado to pull him up so well, and the track veterinarians to reduce the fracture the scene that he was able to go and take the next step. They were able to keep enough raw materials for Dr. Richardson to perform the surgery. Dr. Guns, give us some idea of the changes in medical technology for treating something like this. I mean, I noticed some very interesting pictures of the pool, of monorails, of treadmills. It all looked very surprising for treatment of horses. We've come a long way. The picture that we saw of Barbara Roseng from the pool, he went right from the operating table into what was basically a wetsuit in a raft. And when he started recovering, he would move his legs against the resistance of water instead of hitting ground or anything else or each other. And then he was lifted up by hoist in a sling and moved over to

a recovery store where he lightly touched his feet on the ground. And then slowly, but surely, they allowed him to put more pressure. And I was in a surgery, a newborn center a month ago, very similar to this. And they've really perfected it. And this is one of the greatest recovery systems for this kind of catastrophic injury. Is it corrected that most horses in this situation would have been put to death? Yes. The veterinarian who was involved in the operation said before the surgery that he doesn't see injuries, this catastrophic very often because such horses are almost automatically just euthanized on the track. It's such a difficult task to save them. And there's kind of no economic or practical value left for the horse, but Barbara is obviously a potentially very valuable animal. Well, tell us about, I mean, the brutal truth here is that

economics plays as much a role as the as the medical science. Well, you know, tell us about the well, for a $5,000 horse, you know, you're not going to have a motorcade, you know, to the University of Pennsylvania. And this an incredibly expensive and complicated procedure, but Barbara's potential value is enormous. I mean, when if he survives to go to stud, an expert told me today, his his stud fee will probably start at $100,000 per mating. If he becomes as good as people hope it could go, you know, as high as a half a million, you could be bred to a 100 mares a year. So those are huge numbers. And obviously there was an enormous economic incentive to try to save them. And Dr. Kunz, the as we heard the doctors were pleased with the way things went yesterday, but still left it at no better than 50 50. So what are they look for? What happens over the next

days and weeks? Well, we're going to be monitoring him very closely. Infection is the biggest complication we're faced with. There's a lot of hardware in there. And circulation has been altered. So we're going to be watching for infection. He is on some good pharmaceuticals to combat that. We're going to look at his temperament. We want to see him walking around in the stall, bearing weight on all four. He'll be getting down and he'll be rising. And we want him to be nickering a mares like he apparently was. And Andy, by or finally, what kind of blow is this for the sport itself? I think it's a bad blow. You know, the last time something like that happened in the public view that was so devastating was 1975 when the Philly roughly and broke down at Belmont Park. And I think it just turned a lot of people off horse racing who had been attracted to it by her charisma. And I just fear that people who saw what happened to Barbara

on the track at Pimlico are not going to be in a real hurry to go out to a race track very soon. All right. Let me just say to our audience that those pictures we were showing. I think it was clear, but that was not Barbara. Those were just those were other horses that were illustrative. Andy, buyer and Dr. Celeste Kunz. Thank you both very much. Again, the other major developments of the day, Iraq's new prime minister said, Iraqi forces could assume control of much of the country by years and the National Hurricane Center forecast for two six major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico this year. A reminder, you can download audio versions of our reports and listen to them on your computer, iPod or other MP3 player. To do so, visit the online news hour at pbs.org. We will see you online and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Gwen Eiffel. Thank you and good night.

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And by the Archer Daniels Midland Company, Toyota, and the Atlantic Philanthropies, and this program was made possible by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and by contributions to your PBS station from viewers like you. Thank you. To purchase video cassettes of the news hour with Jim Lehrer, call 1-866-678-News. Good evening, I'm Gwen Eiffel. Jim Lehrer is off on the news hour tonight, the news of this

Monday, then a look at the new government in Iraq. Can it stem the violence and build political stability? Summer's coming and so is the new hurricane season. We look at the forecast. The scattered citizens of New Orleans elect a mayor, and Barbara's bad break can his prickness injury be repaired. Major funding for the news hour with Jim Lehrer has been provided by the world's demand for energy will never stop, which is why a farmer is growing corn, and a farmer is growing soy, and why ADN is turning these crops into biofuels. The world's demand for energy will never stop, which is why ADN will never stop.

We're only getting started. ADM, resourceful by nature. There's a company that builds more than a million vehicles a year in places called Indiana and Kentucky, one that has 10 plants from the foothills of West Virginia to the Pacific coastline. What company is this? Toyota, a company that along with its dealers and suppliers has helped create hundreds of thousands of US jobs, a company proud to do its small part to add to the landscape of America. And by Pacific Life, CIT, and the Atlantic Philanthropies, and this program was made possible by the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, and by contributions to your PBS station from viewers like you. Thank you. The leader of Iraq's new government offered a timetable today for taking over security.

Nouri al-Maliki was sworn in on Saturday along with most of his cabinet. Today, he said Iraqi forces could assume control of much of the country by years and the exceptions would be Baghdad and Anbar Province, where much of the insurgency is based. In Chicago, President Bush said Iraq is now at a turning point. The new Iraqi government does not change America's objectives or our commitment, but it will change how we achieve those objectives and how we honor our commitment. And the new Iraqi government grows in confidence and capability America will play an increasingly supporting role. British Prime Minister Blair was in Baghdad today. He would not say when 8,000 British troops might leave, as Blair visited bombings and shootings around the country killed at least 29 Iraqis. And the U.S. military announced a U.S. Marine was killed yesterday in Western Iraq.

We'll have more on Iraq right after this new summary. U.S. airstrikes in Afghanistan killed as many as 80 suspected insurgents overnight. Local Afghan authorities said 17 civilians were killed as well. The target was a Taliban stronghold in Kandahar Province, fighting in that region has sharply increased in recent days. The 2006 hurricane season could be busier than usual again. The National Hurricane Center today forecast four to six major hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. It predicted as many as 16 named storms down from last year's record of 28. In Miami, Center Director Max Mayfield said, all in all, it's not good news. It's not all about the numbers. It just takes that one hurricane over your house to make for a bad year. And what I also want you to be sure that you hear is the fact that the research meteorologists are telling us that we're in this very active period for major hurricanes.

That may last at least another 10 to 20 years. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. We'll have more on this story later in the program. An independent report today found New Orleans levy system was routinely underfunded before Hurricane Katrina. The study was led by scientists at the University of California at Berkeley. It faulted Congress for peace, meal, funding, and blamed local and state authorities for poor maintenance. The study said the levees failed because of poor engineering and weak soil. New Orleans Mayor Ray Negan appealed Sunday for unity to secure the city and to rebuild. He defeated Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landru in Saturday's runoff election. We'll have more on this story later in the program. Oil companies did not illegally inflate gasoline prices after Hurricane Katrina. The Federal Trade Commission released that finding today. It did find 15 cases of price gouging, but it said the overall cause was supply and

demand. Gas prices dropped in the last two weeks for the first time since February. And the latest Lumburg survey, the national average was $2.93 a gallon down about a penny and a half. The survey included 7,000 gas stations. Palestinian factions fought a new gun battle today in Gaza. It raised growing fears of a civil war. We have a report from Julian Manion of Independent Television News. Shooting broke out near the parliament building and soon masked Hamas gunman were crawling forward to exchange shots with the pro-fatter Palestinian police. A driver from the Jordanian Embassy tried to get out through the crossfire but a bullet hit him and the car rolled back out of control. Inside the driver was dying and a dash to hospital could not save his life. It's not clear how this incident began but what is clear is that firing

is now broken out in several different locations with bullets ricocheting off the buildings around us. Near by Hamas fired a rocket grenade at a vehicle of the pro-fatter Palestinian security force. These are the Hamas Khasambregates hardened by years of fighting the Israelis now trying to consolidate their movement's power after its victory in the Palestinian elections. It was the Hamas decision to put thousands of its militants into the streets that sparked the latest clashes. This morning before the fighting began one of their leaders told me that they are there to help the police keep law and order not to start a civil war. Will there be civil war between fatter and Hamas? We are not speaking about the civil war, we are speaking about protecting the life and the money and the people life in our streets. But civil war, civil war it will not have it, it will not have it by any way.

But tonight, 15 injured Palestinians are being treated in hospital and the bullets that hit them were fired not by Israelis but by their own people. At least eight people have died in the violence during the last two weeks. Montenegro voted Sunday to secede from Serbia and form a separate nation. Just over 55 percent of the voters approve the move but the pro-servient camp demanded a recount. If the vote stands, the last vestiges of the former Yugoslavia will be erased. Congressman William Jefferson refused to say today if he took part in a bribery scheme. On Sunday, FBI agents searched his Capitol Hill office and affidavit supporting the search said that Louisiana Democrat was caught on video accepting $100,000 from an informant. Much of that money the FBI said was later found in the freezer of Jefferson's Washington home. The Congressman allegedly planned to bribe a high Nigerian official to ensure a business deal. Today, Jefferson refused to discuss any specifics.

There are two sides to every story. There are certainly two sides of this story. There will be an appropriate time and form when that can be explained and explicated. But this is not the time, this is not the form and operating on advice that counsel I will not get into facts. So far, the Congressman has not been charged with any crime. He said today, he will not resign. The veteran's affairs department confirmed today someone has stolen data on more than 26 million veterans. An employee took the data home this month without permission and that home was burglarized. Officials said today there is no indication anyone has used the data. It includes names and social security numbers. A near tragedy in the horse racing world took a hopeful turn today. The condition of Barbara improved one day after a five hour operation. The Kentucky Derby winner broke his leg at the previous stakes on Saturday. Today's update came from the surgeon Dr. Dean Richardson at the University of Pennsylvania. This morning he is walking around the stall with an acceptable level of comfort about what we

would expect at this point postoperatively. But the most important thing is he is recovered fully from the anesthesia and he's woken up completely. He's very, very bright. He's trying to bite people which is a very good normal thing in a three year old cult. We'll have more on this story at the end of the program. On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones industrial average lost more than 18 points to close at 11,125. The NASDAQ fell 21 points to close below 21,73. The head of the World Health Organization died today in Geneva after surgery for a blood clot on his brain. Since 2003, South Korean Lee Jong-Wook has led efforts against SARS and AIDS. He also organized preparations for a possible bird flu pandemic. Lee was 61 years old. pioneering dancer Catherine Dunham died Sunday in New York. She was known for bringing African Caribbean influences to dance. In the late 1930s, she organized the nation's first self-supporting

all black modern troop. Dunham was an early advocate of civil rights and she refused to perform at segregated theaters. She was 96 years old. That's it for the news summary tonight. Now, Iraq's new leaders, hurricanes on the horizon, Mayor Nagan's win, and Barbara's broken bones. Margaret Warner has the Iraq story. Iraq's new government got a rousing show of support today from the two foreign leaders whose armies toppled Saddam Hussein. British Prime Minister Tony Blair flew the Baghdad to congratulate new Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki for finally putting together a government. It's been three years of struggle to try to get to this point. And it has been longer and harder than any of us would have wanted it to be.

But this is a new beginning and we want to see what you want to see, which is Iraq and the Iraqi people, able to take charge of their own destiny. President Bush called the new government a watershed event during a speech in Chicago and he called on the new Iraqi leadership to embrace a common vision. This common vision is critical to the new government's success. Although Iraq's new leaders come from many different ethnic and religious communities, they made clear they will govern as Iraqis. They know that the strategy of the terrorists and the insurgents is to divide Iraq along sectarian lines. Iraq's new leaders know they have a great deal of work ahead to broaden the base of their government and unite the people. They also understand that representing all Iraqis and not just narrow sectarian interests,

they will be able to make a decisive break with the past and make a future of progress and opportunity for all their people at reality. The Iraqi parliament approved a new cabinet on Saturday after more than five months of post-election wrangling. Prime Minister Maliki presented a cabinet of 37 members, a majority R.C.I., with eight Sunnis, eight Kurds, and one Christian. Four ministers are women. But the televised ceremony was marked by protests and a walkout by some Sunni parliamentarians unhappy over how posts were allocated. More ominously, Maliki was unable to choose ministers for three key agencies, national security, defense which oversees the Iraqi army, and interior which controls the police. On Sunday after the first cabinet meeting, Prime Minister Maliki publicly vowed to end the violence that is consuming his country. We are aware of the security challenge, its dimensions and effects,

so we believe that facing this challenge cannot be achieved through the use of force only, despite the fact that we are going to use the maximum force in confronting the terrorists and the killers who are shedding blood. But in addition to this, military and security measure, we also need national reconciliation measures. But the violence across Iraq continued unabated over the weekend, where then three dozen people were killed in car bombings and shootings. And for more now, we turn to Laith Kuba, who served as spokesman for Iraq's previous government from April 2005 until January of this year. Robert Abdullah, an associate professor of history at York University in Toronto, he's written several books about Iraq, both he and Laith Kuba were born in Iraq. And joining them is near Rosen, a journalist and author, he has spent extended time in Iraq since the invasion, and recently returned from a six-week stint there. His new book, in the belly of the green bird, the triumph of the martyrs in Iraq was published this month.

And welcome to you all. President Bush today used rather sweeping language to describe this. Watershed event, he said, a decisive moment, a turning point. Professor Abdullah, do any of those apply? I believe that President Bush did strike the important tone in his speech. He talked about the need to set aside sectarian differences. He praised the different parties for coming together and forming a national unity government, which was a major demand in Iraq. He also mentioned, and this was not in your piece, the errors that the United States had committed in the past three years, including the Abu Ghraib scandal, which I think is still ways very heavily on the minds of Iraqis. So I think generally his speech was good. I do not, however, believe that this is a watershed period. I believe it is a positive step, though rather limited and incremental,

small step, but it is a positive step. I near Rosen, how does it feel to you? I mean, is this a turning point? Is this a small positive step? Where would you put it on the scale? Well, since the occupation began, we've heard of many turning points and many milestones, the creation of the governing council, the handover of sovereignty, the various elections, the various battles. We've turned the point. We've broken the back, but nothing has changed. In fact, teams have gotten worse. I think this is actually a rather insignificant event, because events inside the Greens don't have no effect on the reality outside in Baghdad, where militias control the street, where there's a civil war raging, an open civil war between Sunni and Shia militias. And this new government is not going to change that. If anything, Maliki is at least as ideologically committed to Shia power and to preventing any sort of national reconciliation, despite his overt statements to the contrary.

Life Kuba, an insignificant event, a turning point? Well, there is no question it is a success and it's a positive step in the right direction, but we need to put it in context. Iraq is not in a good shape, but if Iraq is to become better, then the key to it is a consolidated political process and a government of national unity. And I think the way this government has put together indicates that, instead of just simply having two or three main blocks forming the government, we have now four blocks forming the government, which more or less is inclusive. So I think in the Iraqi context, it consolidates the political process, it proves at least although slow, although in the eyes of many, not fast enough, but at least it is heading the right direction, and I hope it will consolidate and succeed. Professor Abdullah, how do you see this in terms of how relevant what's happening in the green zone to pick up Mr. Rosen's point is to really the carnage we're

seeing in the streets? And do you think this new government will make a difference on that point? I think it will, though I think the points that Mr. Rosen mentioned are well taken, but the fact is that the militias that are in the streets have an allegiance to many of the parties that are now in the government. For example, the better brigades, the Matty Army, the various militias of the Kurdish parties, these are the primary militias in the streets that Mr. Rosen is talking about. It is the leaders of these militias that are coming together and trying to establish some kind of a reconciliation, some kind of an agreement, some kind of a national vision. It is extremely complicated, it's very sloppy, but I do think that it will reflect in the street with time. Mr. Rosen, do you think the people in this new government, and Mr. Maliki, are the kinds of leaders who will set aside their sectarian and ethnic

allegiances in the interest of governing with a common agenda? No, unfortunately, I don't. I think it's just too late. It's true that there are parties in the government that control militias, but the most powerful militia, the Matty Army, which controls the police and the army, their allegiance is to look to the sutter who is a nudgef. The Kurdish militias, their allegiance is to their leaders in Erbil and in Soleimaniya. The Sunni militias have their allegiance to the Anbar province, to Western Baghdad. Their leaders are not inside the green zone. Their leaders are spread out throughout the country. I believe sectarianism is just so entrenched at this point that we're really at the point of no return. I came back, if anything, feeling a sense of duty, to warn that the civil war is raging and is about to get much worse, and I don't think anything can be done at this point to stop it. Do you think sectarianism is just taken off now and it can't be called back?

Let us first know that the reason why things deteriorated and we have militias is because government has been absent for a while and we did not build national institutions, army of police fast enough. The key to doing that is getting political agreements. I don't think people will change their mindsets of policies, but they need to live with each other. There is no other way. The country can break down, but maybe after two years they meet again to know that they have to live with each other. Are you saying that you think the people in this government, one, are committed to having a real unity government, as opposed to pursuing their sectarian agendas, and two, picking up on the point Mr. Rosen made, do you think they, where do you come down to this question about whether they really have influence over some of these militias that are operating? I think out of self-interest, not out of national duty, they will reach a compromise, not because they're not sectarian, but because even if they were to take the sectarian path, their interests are served better if there is to be a government,

otherwise they're going to be violence all over. And on the second point, I think if a government is in place with an agreement, with a blueprint agreement, then yes they can exert authority and they can put all these guns, not immediately. It will take some time, but I think we will see a decline in violence. Mr. Rosen, what's your response to that? I mean, isn't it, is it not possible that the leaders of these various factions will actually see it in their self-interest now to participate in the government and to turn away from trying to settle everything in the streets and try to settle it through politics? It's possible and I hope so. It's paying me to see Iraq descend into this violence, but I came back three weeks ago and in all of my trips over the past three years, I've seen it get worse and worse. And when I left, there were dozens of dead bodies on the street every day that had been tortured and executed just because they were Sunni, and just because they were Shia. And when Prime Minister Maliki talks about using maximum

force against the terrorists and the killers, to Sunnis, this means he's going to use maximum force against Sunnis. And to Shia militias, this means that they are going to use maximum force against Sunnis. At this point, to Sunnis, all Shia's Iranians are infidels, are apostates, and to Shia's, all Sunnis are terrorists, are bastists, are Saddamists. I believe that at this point, they've just excluded each other from their vision, from their respective visions of Iraq's futures. And I saw no positive signs when I was in Iraq of any sort of reconciliation, looked at a sutter, the former voice of a joint Sunni Shia front against the American occupation. I think maybe at one point he was the only hope for Sunni Shia unity, has turned against the Sunnis, starting in late 2005, and his militias are openly going into Sunni neighborhoods and acting as deskwads. So I just feel completely hopeless. Professor Abdullah, it's not that I disagree with Mr. Rosen at all. It's just that it seems to me, as a historian also, I take a much longer view of this.

This is not the first time that Iraq has plunged into such a miserable condition, and it has always pulled back from the brink of civil war. There has never been in the history of Iraq and all allowed sectarian civil war. This is not to say that this might not be the first time in its history. And it is getting very close to that, and indeed the country is staring at the abyss. But there are some positive signs. The very fact that these leaders of these sectarian parties have gotten together and tried to set aside their differences in order to save themselves. I agree completely with what Lefkupa said. It's out of self-preservation, out of really a personal selfish interest, that I believe that reason will ultimately prevail, and the country will pull back from the brink of civil war. Let me just follow up. If I may just add one last point. The situation is complicated by the American presence, by the Iranian presence, and there's also

some positive signs on that front with the positions that Ambassador Helizad has taken, with the overtures for American Iranian negotiations over the status of Iraq. These are hopeful signs. These are not guaranteed success formulas, but they are hopeful. Lefkupa, when Maliki talks about, as he did yesterday, using maximum force to get a handle on the terrorists, what is he talking about? What are the maximum forces he can command and know that he can command? I think there are good numbers of trained Iraqis now, and there are foreign troops in the country under more or less his command. It's not lack of force, but I do agree that one needs to be careful where to direct that force, and not at all. I don't share the view that was expressed. It will be against the Sunnis. Yes, there is fear and apprehension on both sides, but I think having listened to Maliki and his tone, he realizes the need to reassert authority of government. Iraqis are

used to strong government, to an authority being in place. People will respond to it positively, and if he can push that posture with some action in the street, I think it will benefit everybody. So, near Rosen, you said what you thought the Iraqi people were hearing when they heard him talk about maximum force, but do you think he has forces he can command that will serve him and serve a unified government and move against these Shiite militias in the street? I think the most serious problem in Iraq today is that the police in Iraq are the Maori army. I think that they're virtually indistinguishable. When you see Maori army precessions or security events, they are off duty policemen. They have police issue black pistols. They have police issue handcuffs. When you see police cars, they have muq to the other posters or stickers, likewise with the army. So, it's not that they have taken over the army of the police. They are the army in the police. So, there are very strong Shia forces, that's true. I just don't believe that they view themselves

as a pan Iraqi force. I think that they view themselves as there to prevent any sort of Sunni dominance. They're there at this point to punish Sunnis for the Samara Shrine bombing in February 22nd, for three years of Zarkawi's daily attacks. They finally lost their patients and they've been taking the fight to the Sunni street. When I was there, there were many dead bodies, people killed just because they were called Omar, for example, the quintessential Sunni name. People found with their hands in the Sunni prayer position. Like this, basically a statement saying, Sunnis, we are killing you because you're Sunni. I just, I hope that Iraqis will hear the call of a new government. I just feel like on the street, the violence is so terrible. They hit you to so terrible. I think we might be too late. All right, near Rosen, Professor Abdullah and Lethcuba, thank you all. Still to come on the news hour tonight, Barbara Rose breaks and the task ahead for Ray Nagin. But first, I'll look at what could complicate the mayor's job, the

outlook for hurricanes as the season begins. Earlier today, I spoke with Richard Pash, senior specialist at the National Hurricane Center. Richard Pash, welcome. You are predicting four to six major hurricanes this year. How does that compare to what we experienced last year? Last year, we had seven major hurricanes. We also had 28 named storms last year, which was by far the most active hurricane season in history. We're not forecasting a repeat of last year. You never predict those kind of record shattering seasons. But the conditions we're looking at out there right now, it doesn't look very good if we're trying to avoid having more hurricanes develop out there. The Atlantic waters are warmer than normal. Not as warm as they were last year, but still warm. And the upper winds look like they're becoming favorable with weak vertical shear and that would encourage development and intensification of hurricanes. And we don't have an El Nino episode in the Pacific to offset any of these favorable conditions. I could produce some shearing winds as well.

We don't see that. The La Nina or cold water episode in the eastern Pacific starting to fade or is pretty much faded away. So it's kind of a neutral condition out there. But overall, it looks unfortunately like we're going to have another visit here. But if we had more hurricanes last year than were predicted, is it fair to assume there will be more hurricanes this year than you're now predicting? Well, I don't think you could look at it that way. You could just say there's more uncertainty at this stage. Last year, actually, our forecast at the beginning of the season in late May wasn't quite as much as what we're predicting this year. So, you know, it's a question of certainty. Last year, we weren't sure that the El Nino event wasn't going to develop and hinder development of storms. This year, we're just saying this far in advance, we need to hedge our bets a little bit and not say with absolute certainty it's going to be really high number of storms. But as I said, it does look favorable for an active season. Distinguish what you mean for us between named storms and major hurricanes. Okay, named storms are any system that reaches tropical storms,

strength or greater. That's sustain winds of 39 miles per hour or higher. Hurricane means that the tropical cyclone has acquired sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or higher. Major hurricanes mean they have sustained winds near 100 greater than 111 miles per hour, 111 miles per hour or higher. Those are the hurricanes that we call category three, four or five on this half or since in hurricane scale. And they're the ones that do the majority of the majority of the damage if they strike land. And everything earlier today, one of your colleagues said that there was an expectation that we are in an unusually active period that could last for 10 or 20 years. Does that mean that it's just going to get worse and worse and worse? Well, I'm not saying we're not saying it's going to get worse and worse, but it's going to stay bad more likely in any year than good. Strong El Ninos, the warm water episode, the Pacific can disrupt activity such as 1997 was a quiet year, 2002 was a relatively quiet year.

So those years are examples that is still hoped you can get a quiet season in the midst of this active multi-decadal cycle we're in. But we can just harken back to the 1940s and 50s and early 60s when we had lots of storms, major storms, and a lot of hurricanes hitting Florida in particular for an example of one of those other active periods. I know that you guys felt last year that you predicted a lot of what we saw come to pass, especially with Katrina, and that people were maybe just not listening. Do you sense that there is a culture of preparedness to use a term I heard today that has set in as a result of what we saw last year? Yeah, I think it's has to have that effect. I don't think there's any question. The human nature is such that they would respond to the kind scenes of catastrophe that they saw out there and the amount of misery and the amount of death and destruction caused by these storms. That they're saying we need to take some action this time. We're not going to let this happen to us again. There was always a percentage of the population that fails to respond adequately. We know that it's unfortunate. We never seem to get

quite the evacuation response that we like or that emergency management and local government officials would like. But by and large, I think the effect of last year, if there's anything good that could be said coming out of last year, is that there's an awareness level, I think that's extremely heightened. However, the officials on Louisiana are saying that their infrastructure is still bad or that they are not still not returning to pre Katrina.