The MacNeil/Lehrer Report; Poland

ROBERT MacNEIL: Good evening. Poland`s Solidarity union claimed today that its workers were on strike in many mines and factories in defiance of the martial law imposed yesterday, but the extent of the stoppages could not be checked by Western newsmen hampered by the almost total shutdown of communications. Telephone, telex and telegraph services were cut yesterday when Poland`s military leaders announced a state of emergency. Hundreds of leaders of the Solidarity union were taken into custody. The national leader, Lech Walesa, was reported to be in negotiation with government leaders. The government denied that he`d been arrested, but his whereabouts were still unknown today. In the Gdansk shipyards, where Solidarity was born in the summer of 1980, remaining officials set up a skeleton command structure. No violence or incidents were reported in Poland, and there was no sign of any imminent Soviet intervention. In many cities in Western Europe, large crowds marched in protest against the military takeover, but the reaction of Western governments has been restrained. Tonight, is this the end or only another stage for Poland`s liberal revolution? Jim?

JIM LEHRER: Robin, for 16 months the question in Washington has been, what will the United States do if? -- if the situation in Poland turns rough. At the current stage of "rough," the answer has been restraint in both words and deeds. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Charles Percy said today the U.S. was temporarily suspending all food aid to Poland, particularly a pending $200-million grain sale. Yesterday, President Reagan warned the Soviets about intervening militarily. Today, he called Pope John Paul II to express his concern for the situation in the Pope`s homeland. Secretary of State Haig returned to Washington this afternoon from a NATO meeting in Brussels, and immediately joined other top officials in meetings on Poland. Some members of Congress spoke strident words; House Minority Leader Robert Michel, for one, blaming the Soviet Union and suggesting that the United States reexamine its entire relationship with the Soviets. Senate Minority Leader Robert Byrd seemed to speak for most, though, when he said, "The best thing now is just to keep it cool and hope the matter will be resolved." How it might be resolved is where we begin tonight, with one of Poland`s top newspaper men, Karol Szyndzielorz. He`s deputy editor in chief of Warsaw Life, Warsaw`s major daily. He left Poland a week ago to attend a United Nations development conference here in the United States. Is a peaceful solution now possible, or has it gone too far for that?

KAROL SZYNDZIELORZ: I think a peaceful solution is still possible. It is not yet too far; as you just said a while ago, no violence erupted, even right after the introduction of martial law.

LEHRER: Do you think the members of Solidarity will follow the orders of the government, or do you think these strikes that have begun will continue and will grow?

Mr. SZYNDZIELORZ: I think perhaps I`ll be proven right, that Solidarity members, while practically all workers, will follow the orders of the government. They have no choice. There is no choice. They won`t find another employer. They won`t find a different country. And this country will collapse if they don`t work.

LEHRER: What do you know about what`s happening in terms of Lech Walesa at this point?

Mr. SZYNDZIELORZ: Well, I`ve been expecting Lech Walesa to come on national television around 7:30 with the mid-evening news, but with the wires there was no report on it, so I think that either the negotiations have not produced the results that Walesa expected or the government expected, or simply, he is unsure of the development of the situation and doesn`t want to go on the air. But I think he is playing a crucial role. I mean, it`s not only General Jaruzelski, it`s not only the Archbishop Glemp, but I think the role of Lech Walesa will also in the coming days be rather important.

LEHRER: In what way? What could he do?

Mr. SZYNDZIELORZ: Well, I think he is, first of all, a credible leader, and he has followed, I should say, a more moderate line than his fellow members of the national committee of Solidarity. And as reported by today`s Washington Post, there was almost an expression on his face, "I told you so," when he announced during the weekend that communications to Warsaw had been interrupted. And I have been following the words and deeds of Walesa for some time, naturally, as an editor. And I must say that sometimes he used tough words, but in essence he was a realist. Well, if he is realistic enough, he will try to get to terms. Of course, getting to terms right now is far more difficult than it was, let`s say, two weeks ago.

LEHRER: Doesn`t "getting to terms" under the current situation mean no more Solidarity?

Mr. SZYNDZIELORZ: No. No. No. That is not the question.

LEHRER: Why doesn`t it?

Mr. SZYNDZIELORZ: Well, I mean, a spokesman of the government, Mr. Urban, said the activities of Solidarity have been temporarily suspended. It doesn`t mean that the trade union doesn`t exist anymore. And you can`t do it by fiat of the government. I mean, it is a mass movement.

LEHRER: You say that in your opinion most of the workers will follow the orders of the government. Let`s say that there are a few or a lot, or how many doesn`t matter, but let`s say there are some who do not follow the orders of the government. Do you expect the soldiers in the Polish army to actually shoot Polish workers if ordered to do so?

Mr. SZYNDZIELORZ: No, you see, I think there is a misconception which I have to clear, that, if a group of workers in a factory refuses to do a given job, then it`s a problem for the management of the factory, not for outside forces. And the managers of all the plants in Poland, under martial law, are under the command of the prime minister, and now the leader of the Committee of National Salvation. So, in that sense, this will be dealt with in the factory by the factory itself. I mean, those workers can be dismissed; the management has every right to do it. And they can be dismissed right away. So this is a rather powerful instrument. You don`t have to shoot to get your will across to people who have to work.

LEHRER: How do you -- you think this thing can be resolved. How do you see it being resolved?

Mr. SZYNDZIELORZ: Well, I think that this martial law, this emergency, can be regarded as a cooling-off period between the government and the Solidarity. It will also mean a cooling off inside of Solidarity because, as you know, the demands of last week were rather extreme, to put it mildly. And, well, certainly nothing is wrong with a trade union taking care of trade union business and disclaiming any political ambitions. Now, a solution is still possible, I think. As I said, answering your first question, it seems to me that this is probably the last desperate attempt to find a negotiated solution to the crisis in Poland. And I hope the majority of my countrymen understand that.

LEHRER: If they don`t find it now, then what happens?

Mr. SZYNDZIELORZ: Well, first of all, you -- you probably won`t, but I will -- witness a collapse of the national economy, and this will be a desperate fight for survival. I mean, for just the bare existence of 36 million people because if you don`t produce, you can`t eat. It`s as simple as that.

LEHRER: Thank you. Robin?

MacNEIL: Another view from a Polish activist in this country. Irena Lasota was a leader of student protests in Poland in 1968. She came to the United States in 1970. Ms. Lasota now teaches political science at Fordham University, and is an official contact between the AFL-CIO here and Warsaw`s Solidarity. Ms. Lasota, do you see -- in the words we`ve just heard -- the declaration of martial law as a cooling-off period?

IRENA LASOTA: No. I see it as it was intended to be. It is a coup staged by a military junta. It`s a rape committed on a nation, of a nation which showed, in die last 16 months, that it did not want to live the way they lived since 1944, when the Communist regime was installed in Poland.

MacNEIL: What about the recent events that provoked this? You`ve just heard Mr. Szynd-zielorz say that the demands of the last week were very extreme, by which I presume he meant the demand that there be a referendum on the future form of government in Poland. Now, was that a reasonable demand within the Polish political context?

Ms. LASOTA: To talk about provocation in this context is to reverse the roles of victims and aggressors, and in Poland it`s a non-question. In 1939, when Hitler invaded Poland, some people were also asking, "Did the Poles provoke Hitler? Maybe they should have given something to Hitler." Now, here we have a clear state where the nation was supporting a labor union, and then you have a Communist junta, taking -- overnight -- everything, a kind of fundaments [sic] of social life which are being built, taking it over, declaring martial law, in which execution is -- execution of people not going to work has been declared on official television, in which the imposition of the martial law in Poland yesterday was much tougher than what Hitler did in 1939. In 1939, the industry was not put under the military control; people were not forbidden, for example, to travel from city to city.

MacNEIL: Do you believe that the workers will have no choice but to follow the orders and keep working?

Ms. LASOTA: The workers have a choice; the workers have gone on strikes. We know that at Katowice the strikers were evacuated, as it said today by the military. We know that every Warsaw large factory is on strike, and we know it about Warsaw because our diplomats there. We know that even the personnel of the national library of Warsaw was on strike, and was also evacuated by the military. So the choices still exist.

MacNEIL: So, what do you think is going to happen?

Ms. LASOTA: I think that the society will not allow a Communist junta to tell them after 16 months, "You have played enough. Now, let`s go back to the old business.

MacNEIL: They said, in making the declaration of martial law yesterday, that it wasn`t back to the old business; that the reforms gained or granted, or whatever, since the summer of 1980 would be left intact after this period.

Ms. LASOTA: Have you ever seen a junta which makes a coup and then says that it is going to make things worse? No. Usually they come, they take over everything, they say it`s going to be better, they are not going to destroy liberties; but the liberties are being destroyed right at this moment.

MacNEIL: If the workers resist, make the choice to resist -- as you suggest many will -- and the military continues to enforce martial law, won`t that lead to clashes between the two; in effect, to civil war?

Ms. LASOTA: It`s possible, but the strength of Solidarity, of everybody who is in and outside and supporting Solidarity, is such that the government had already a few times to step back. In August of 1980, everybody was saying, "The army will crush down; the Soviets will invade." They were saying "the government says they will never allow for peasants [in] Solidarity." So maybe this time, also, if the pressure from the nation will be as it was until now, it`s quite possible that within a few days the peaceful solution will be found, which means that maybe the government will stand back.

MacNEIL: What do you think the United States should do in this situation?

Ms. LASOTA: Several things. I think that, first of all, it should send back the Polish ambassador to Poland. It should forbid all the banks to extend any credits to Poland, It should stop all exchanges with Poland as long as a single Solidarity member is in jail. And I think it should right away appeal to the United Nations to condemn Poland and to send independent observers to see what is happening.

MacNEIL: Well, thank you. Jim?

LEHRER: The Washington angle to the story, now, in more detail. It comes from Peter Osnos, national editor of the Washington Post. He was the Post Moscow correspondent, and has spent much time in, and reporting on, Poland. Cautious words and no more food sales: is there really much else the United States can do? You heard what Ms. Lasota just said that she would like the United States to do. What`s being considered?

PETER OSNOS: Well, for the moment, Jim, we`re operating in what really is, for Washington, an extraordinary information vacuum. I just called the White House before I came over here, and they know very little about what`s going on inside Poland. So they had the difficulty of making very hard choices with very little of current information. So what they`re trying to do is not acquiesce in what amounts to a crackdown, but at the same time, not close off any avenues that they may need to go down as the information about what really is happening with strikes finally comes in. Because a great deal of what the United States finally does will depend on what the Polish people do.

LEHRER: What about the diplomatic thing? Ms. Lasota just mentioned that. I noticed a wire story quoted an unnamed State Department official as saying that there was a possibility of maybe doing away with diplomatic relations with Poland. Is that a serious consideration now?

Mr. OSNOS: Well, there are a whole series of scenarios of options that have been spelled out a long time ago to deal with a Soviet intervention -- direct Soviet intervention. Well, that`s not what has happened. You have had an internal intervention. It is an internal -- strictly speaking, an internal matter at this point. So it is clear that we don`t want to be in a position of saying that we won`t deal with an existing government in Poland, because that leaves us no leverage at all. I think that if facet! - - the first thing we`ll do, probably -- the first thing we`ll do is cut off future deliveries of food, and call our NATO allies together to see if we can get some concerted group action that might put pressure on the regime.

LEHRER: Do U.S. officials see this as a Soviet-sponsored or Soviet-ordered action? Those terms were thrown around a lot today.

Mr. OSNOS: I think the word is Soviet-sanctioned. I think that the general belief is that this thing, the precise terms of it, were designed in Warsaw, but that there was clearly consulta-tion with Moscow, and clearly the Soviets are very pleased. They have been telling the Poles to get tough for months, and now the Poles have gotten tough. And what we`ve heard from Moscow, of course, the noises of chuckles of appreciation for what the Poles have done. I don`t think this, as yet, could be counted as Soviet intervention, because it isn`t.

LEHRER: I see. You have many Polish sources and connections, Peter. How do you see this thing? You`ve heard what Ms. Lasota has said, and what Mr. Szyndzielorz said.

Mr. OSNOS: Well, it`s interesting that nobody has mentioned what I found to be a truly remarkable fact. In the proclamation announcing martial law, there isn`t a single reference to the Communist Party, the Polish United Workers Party. This is an action carried out by the army. The army is, if not a popular force, a credible force in Poland. It has a strong nationalist tradition. I think what General Jaruzelski is trying to do is appeal to Polish nationalism. After all, in addition to arresting the Solidarity people -- or what they call the Solidarity extremists, but, in fact, most of the Solidarity leadership -- they also arrested a lot of the former Communist leadership. They`re trying, I think, to strike some relatively moderate path that is identifiable as Polish, not as Soviet, and hopefully bring things under control before -- as Jaruzelski himself said - - they go into the abyss. Anybody who read that speech carefully would not find in that a man who was about to brutalize his country. I think it was an emotional speech; I think it was a heartfelt speech; and I think in many respects it was a genuine speech. This is not a liberal Democrat, Jaruzelski; this is a Polish Communist general. What we`ve got there is a junta now. It`s a junta, the kind of thing we see in Latin America, but it is distinctly Polish.

LEHRER: Thank you. Robin?

MacNEIL: An important aspect of Poland`s economic crisis is the huge foreign debt owed to Western banks. An interest payment of $500 million was in fact due today. One American banker very familiar with the situation is Lee Kjelleren, vice president of Manufacturers Hanover Trust Company, and a specialist on Eastern Europe. He`s a frequent traveler to Moscow and Warsaw. Mr. Kjelleren, first of all, have the Poles paid the $500 million today?

LEE KJELLEREN: Well, Robin, we don`t know. The telexes are down, and the position remains unclear. But there are some 501 banks engaged in the process of restructuring some $2.4 billion in debt. Seventeen billion dollars, in total, is owed to the American banks; some 10% -- excuse me, $17 billion in total to all the Western commercial banks, 10% to the American banks, and it`s clearly a problem.

MacNEIL: Would it be very farfetched to think there was any connection between the due date of that payment today and this event?

Mr. KJELLEREN: That would be terribly speculative. The problems are structural --

MacNEIL: Did you find yourselves asking that today as you sat around and watched this: "Could there be any connection between the two?"

Mr. KJELLEREN: Well, there were a number of questions posed all day long on the telephone from the media, press and so on. I don`t think there is necessarily a direct connection at all. I would have thought that the need for systemic, structural reform in an economic sense was fairly clear. Solidarity has struck against the state as a political entity, and not as a sole employer. It`s evident to most of us now that the economic problems are not the main consideration in Mr. Jaruzelski`s takeover.

MacNEIL: That it was the political threat represented by Solidarity, rather than concern over money?

Mr. KJELLEREN: That`s right. The Party has lost its legitimacy or its authority as the sole authentic spokesman for the proletariat, as it were.

MacNEIL: Now, we`ve had a number of bankers on this program in the past looking at the situation in Poland, and it was clear that the interest as bankers was, to a large degree, in stability in Poland so that they could get on with restructuring the economy. What kind of feelings does this military takeover give you as a banker interested in seeing the economy stable and growing so that you guys can get your loans paid back?

Mr. KJELLEREN: Well, we don`t know yet. We`ve got to take a bit of a wait- and-see attitude. Clearly, we`re interested to avoid an economic collapse of the economy, and we hope that our understandings with the previous administration, if it`s fair to characterize it in that way, will obtain, will hold. We have a restructuring process underway; we think that it incorporates elements of reform whereby the Poles may find themselves able to introduce a stabilization program which will also allow them to service their external debt, and which will also allow them to put meat on the table. But this would be a very painful process. The adjustment process would be extremely difficult, and it`s unclear which way it`s going to work out.

MacNEIL: I see. Ms. Lasota suggested that one gesture by the United States should be that American banks should extend no more credit to Poland. Is more credit contemplated at the moment, or was it before this event?

Mr. KJELLEREN: Not necessarily. There are a number of scenarios, a number of vari-ables, and if you are concerned to keep the economy viable to avoid a collapse, mere may be circumstances when you`d like to prime the pump. By that f mean you may wish to provide short-term trade credits for critical imports such as foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals, and so on, for a defined period of time in order to avoid what could be a terribly disorderly process.

MacNEIL: Well, thank you. Jim?

LEHRER: Mr. Szyndzielorz, on the point that both Ms. Lasota and Peter Osnos raised first, the question of the army. Peter interpreted the fact that it was done in the name of the army, rather than in the name of the Communist Party, as a nationalistic move. Ms. Lasota of course says that this is a military junta, a military takeover in some ways worse than what Hitler did when he came to Poland in 1939. What`s your reading of that?

Mr. SZYNDZIELORZ: Well, I should express my surprise at anybody trying to compare what has happened in the last two days with the national tragedy of 1939, and I think our viewers know the Polish history well enough to draw their own conclusion. Whereas, the nationalist element in what has taken place in the last two days, I think it`s -- I quite agree with Peter because it is a Polish attempt of getting to terms with an extremely complicated political situation which resulted from extreme demands of Solidarity of a political nature, which are incompatible with die charter of Solidarity and the program of Solidarity as adopted during the congress of Solidarity a few months ago, and are incompatible with the constitution of our country. Now, this martial law has been declared in accordance with the law existing in our country. The powers were in the constitution. It is not a violation of the constitution, and certainly not the rape of a nation. Now, I think that anybody who claims that the atmosphere in Poland right now is close to the national uprising against our own army, is probably off his rockers.

LEHRER: Ms. Lasota? Do you think that the people of Poland are ready to rise up against their army?

Ms. LASOTA: Due to Mr. Szyndzielorz`s employers, I have no direct news from Poland because, as you know, the communications have been cut off as of midnight, December 13th. I know what the news wires reported, that there are strikes throughout Poland. Let me also say something: I did not compare the situation of Poland today and Hitter`s invading Poland; I compared the legal documents. The document proclaiming martial law today, if you read it, is stronger than the first document issued by the Germans in September of `39, and everybody, now that -- even if he doesn`t know history can just check it in history books.

Mr. SZYND2IELORZ: Well, I don`t think we have ought to go into polemics of that kind. There are more serious matters to be debated, I think.

LEHRER: Do you agree, Ms. Lasota, with Mr. Kjelleren`s point about the stability, the need for stability from an economic standpoint?

Ms. LASOTA: The stability of the banks have been supporting Poland, in a way also can be seen today. There is no stability. I think it is very important, also, to mention something that maybe Mr. Kjelleren did not want to mention. But we know that the consortium of banks had been recently applying to the Soviet Union directly to guarantee the Polish loans, and maybe here is a question: was this maybe -- did this maybe influence the events of two days ago?

LEHRER: Mr. Kjelleren?

Mr. KJELLEREN: Yes, I would doubt that very much.

LEHRER: Did that, in fact, happen? Is she right about that?

LEHRER: There have been ongoing discussions with all the Comecon partners because the debt --

LEHRER: The Comecon partners being the group of Eastern European countries that economically help -- yeah, right -- that help-

Mr. KJELLEREN: That`s right, with the exception of Yugoslavia. There`s an ongoing interest to see whether the umbrella theory, so-called "lender of last resort" concept, still obtains. Poland is a member of the Warsaw Pact and belongs to this integrated economic unit, and it`s only reasonable, many have thought, to try and pursue a line with its economic partners. But whether you could draw a direct connection would seem very tenuous.

MacNEIL: Mr. Osnos, starting with you, I`d like to ask each of you, is this the end of the progression of reforms that we`ve seen over die last 16 months in Poland? Is this it? Is it thus far and no further, and perhaps a climb back, or is this just a pause and it`s all going to go on? What`s your instinct about that?

Mr. OSNOS: Well, I think certainly it`s an extremely delicate moment, and which, in fact, yes, things could collapse. We could be at the verge of civil conflagration, the worst we`ve seen in Eastern Europe since the Hungarian revolution of 1956. On the other hand, there`s a chance that the Polish workers, the Polish people, are tired, that they are hungry, that they are cold, that this is the week before Christmas in probably the most intensely Catholic country in the world, and that, perhaps, they are prepared to give the army a chance. If the army shows the requisite necessary restraint and, in areas where there are strikes or where there are sitdowns and where there are bound to be problems, the army doesn`t move in and commit the kind of violence that, so far, the events in Poland have been completely without. I think at this point it`s a very close balance, a 50-50 proposition.

MacNEIL: Mr. Szyndzielorz, what about Ms. Lasota`s point, that if the workers hang tough, to use an American idiom, the government may step back, as it has several times in the last 16 months?

Mr. SZYNDZIELORZ: Well, I mean, there has been a certain tactic to hanging tough and making the government retreat, but I think a line has been drawn and, as Peter Osnos mentioned, the speech of Jaruzelski, he clearly defined what the line is. I must say that this week was supposed to be a crucial week in Poland because the Sejm, our parliament, was supposed to adopt three crucial laws -- the law on the trade unions, the law on the enter- prises -- the status of enterprises, and the law on higher education. Now, those laws were, let`s say, the underpinning for economic reform. And I think not only Mr. Kjelleren, but all citizens of Poland, had great hopes that this economic reform will improve the efficiency of the whole economy, will mean a new beginning in improving our system.

MacNEIL: I just want to ask Ms. Lasota, finally -- we have a few seconds left. Do you regard this as the end of the reform thing? Can it go on from here? How do you --

Ms. LASOTA: From here? No. But it can at least, if there is -- if Solidarity is a strong movement and they may force the government to step back, they can pick up somewhere where they were a few months ago.

MacNEIL: We have to leave it there, I`m afraid. That`s the end of our time. Thank you, Mr. Szyndzielorz, for joining us in Washington; Peter Osnos, Mr. Kjelleren, and Ms. Lasota, thank you. Good night, Jim.

LEHRER: Good night, Robin.

MacNEIL: That`s all for tonight. We will be back tomorrow night. I`m Robert MacNeil. Good night.