The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight: Our summary of the news; the Wisconsin fallout -- including a campaign wrap-up, a reporter's look at the failed Dean campaign, and the analysis of Mark Shields and David Brooks; plus an update of the San Francisco same-sex marriage story; and a book conversation about the South Bronx.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: The race for the Democratic presidential nomination lost another one today, as Howard Dean announced an end to his campaign. He had failed to win any state so far. Last night, Dean ran a distant third in the Wisconsin primary. John Kerry was the winner; John Edwards finished a strong second. In Burlington, Vermont, today, Dean told supporters his issues would stay alive within the Democratic Party.

HOWARD DEAN: I am no longer actively pursuing the presidency. We will, however, continue to build a new organization using our enormous grassroots network to continue the effort to transform the Democratic Party and to change our country.

JIM LEHRER: Dean did not endorse Kerry or Edwards. He did say he'd support the eventual nominee. We'll have more on the campaign right after this News Summary. White House officials today backed off predicting the economy would add 2.6 million jobs this year. The number was included in an annual economic report last week. Today President Bush declined to endorse the forecast. A White House spokesman said it was just "economic modeling." Democratic challenger John Kerry said the president was the only one who believed the number in the first place. The president said today he's troubled by recent same-sex weddings in San Francisco. He would not say if he was ready to support a constitutional ban on gay marriage. He spoke in the oval office before meeting with the president of Tunisia.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: I have watched carefully what's happened in San Francisco where licenses were being issued, even though the law states otherwise. I have consistently stated that if... I support a law to protect marriage between a man and a woman. Obviously these events are influencing my decision.

JIM LEHRER: City officials in San Francisco began issuing licenses and performing marriages for gay and lesbian couples six days ago. Hundreds have taken their vows since. We'll have more on that story later in the program. In Iraq today, two suicide truck bombs exploded in Hillah outside a military base run by Polish forces. The blasts killed at least ten Iraqis, and wounded more than 100 people. They included Filipino, Polish, and Hungarian troops, and one American. And overnight, U.S. forces in Baquba captured seven people with possible ties to al-Qaida. They're suspected in a suicide bombing at a police station last month. A top Taliban commander threatened attacks on Afghans today, if they take part in elections scheduled for June. He said: "We will kill all those Muslims who are working with America and its allies." And the top U.N. envoy in Afghanistan warned recent violence could delay elections. So far, only 900,000 people have registered to vote. More than ten million are eligible. A huge railroad explosion in Iran killed nearly 300 people today; injured more than 400. It happened in the northeastern part of the country. Freight cars loaded with fuel, fertilizer, and chemicals got loose on the tracks, caught fire, and exploded. We have a report narrated by Mark Webster of Independent Television News.

MARK WEBSTER: Villagers and firefighters were caught in the massive blast and the fires which followed. The charred, blackened hulks of more than 50 goods wagons, which had careered out of control down the track, blazed for hours afterwards. The local fire brigade was hopelessly inadequate to deal with a catastrophe on this scale, and rescue workers called desperately for extra help. Dozens of bodies were laid out under tarpaulins in a nearby field, and in villages, walls collapsed and windows were shattered in the force of the explosion. One car had its roof ripped off, and others were burnt out completely. Since many of those injured suffered terrible burns, the death toll is certain to rise. The freight train was 51 wagons long and was loaded with an explosive mix of petrol, fertilizer and sulfur. Once the carriages came off the tracks, there was an initial explosion. Local people and firefighters were quickly on the scene trying to control the blaze when a second and more deadly explosion left many more dead, including the local fire chief. There is no clear picture as to why the wagons derailed near this village, causing the huge loss of life. Some Iranians point to the rundown condition of much of Iran's infrastructure and say that could also have played a major part in this latest disaster.

JIM LEHRER: It was just two months ago that an earthquake in Iran killed more than 40,000 people. On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost more than 42 points to close just under 10,672. The NASDAQ fell more than three points to close at 2,076. And that's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to the Wisconsin fallout, including the Dean drop-out and Shields and Brooks, then same-sex marriage in San Francisco, and a conversation about the South Bronx.

FOCUS - CAMPAIGN 2004

JIM LEHRER: The Wisconsin primary shakes up the democratic race once again. Kwame Holman begins.

(Cheers and applause )

KWAME HOLMAN: Massachusetts Senator John Kerry's victory last night was much tighter than polls had predicted. When the votes were tallied, Kerry had 40 percent, just six points ahead of North Carolina Senator john Edwards. But Kerry, who now has won all but two of the 17 contests so far, said a win is a win.

SEN. JOHN KERRY: The motto of the state of Wisconsin is, "forward." And I want to thank the state of Wisconsin for moving this cause and this campaign forward tonight here in this great state. I thank you so much. (Cheers and applause) Every week across our country wherever we go we're feeling the power of change that is sweeping across this nation, the desire for change to come to America.

KWAME HOLMAN: Edwards reveled in his surprisingly strong showing.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS: Today the voters of Wisconsin sent a clear message. The message was this: "Objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear." ( Cheers and applause )

KWAME HOLMAN: Making the rounds on morning television programs, Edwards had this explanation for his last minute surge.

SEN. JOHN EDWARDS: I think a couple of things. One is my message about jobs and trade, and trying to protect jobs and create jobs I think finally got through. And we had a debate on Sunday night where Wisconsin voters got to see us up close. And then on Monday, I got the endorsement of the state's largest newspaper, and they made the case in that endorsement that I was the most electable against George Bush, because I could attract independents that we have to get to win. I think it was probably a convergence of all those things.

KWAME HOLMAN: Today at a town hall meeting in Dayton, Ohio, Kerry kept his focus on only one opponent: President Bush.

SEN. JOHN KERRY: And as we walk down the street here, you can just feel the pain and the anxiety at the way in which the heart has been ripped out of the heartland by an economic policy that doesn't remain connected to the real lives of real people in this country. So here's what I pledge to you, the same thing President Clinton pledged when he ran for president: I will cut the deficit in half in the first four years, and I will ask America to make a choice with me. We are going to roll back George Bush's unaffordable, inexcusable, uneconomic tax cut for the wealthiest people in this nation, and we're going to invest in education, health care, health care, cities, and the future of our country. That's what we're going to do.

KWAME HOLMAN: Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean's third- place showing, with just 18 percent of the vote, ended his campaign. Congressman Dennis Kucinich campaigned in Ohio today, while the Reverend Al Sharpton gave a speech in Atlanta. Both men earned low single-digit percentages in Wisconsin yesterday.

AL SHARPTON:We must expand the electorate in the Democratic Party. Bring back labor, bring back people of color, bring back young people, bring back the disillusioned, and out of an expanded base, then deal with who is electable to them. I think that we run the risk of trying to play to a crowd too small for victory because we don't want to hear dissident voices, that if we heard them, we wouldn't have had George W. Bush in the first place.

KWAME HOLMAN: Three states-- Idaho, Utah, and Hawaii-- hold contests next Tuesday. But the big prize comes March 2, Super Tuesday, when ten states pick their Democratic delegates.

JIM LEHRER: And to Shields and Brooks: Syndicated columnist Mark Shields and "New York Times" columnist David Brooks.

David, how do you read the message of Wisconsin for John Kerry?

DAVID BROOKS: Kill the wounded. We talked about this a few weeks ago. As Lee Atwater said "If you have a candidate on the mat you have to stick a bayonet through him." And after New Hampshire, John Kerry should have gone to South Carolina and said "this guy doesn't have the support I have, doesn't have the money I have, but he's a great campaigner. I have to get rid of him now." He didn't do it. He sort of took a pass on South Carolina. He let Edwards live another day. And as Edwards just said, he's a better campaigner. He wins independents extremely well and he's got the trade issue. 75 percent of the voters in this election in Wisconsin thought their state loses jobs because of free trade. That's a great issue for him.

JIM LEHRER: How do you feel? What should Kerry take away from what happened yesterday?

MARK SHIELDS: Winning is coming in first. John Edwards says he's done better than expected.

JIM LEHRER: Let me write that down.

MARK SHIELDS: Better than expected. I don't know who expected is and he's never been identified in any of these races. If it's a two-person race you can't do better than expected; you have to beat the other guy. There are two items of comfort for Kerry yesterday. Not disagreeing fervently with what David said. The first is that eight out of ten voters said they would be satisfied if Kerry were the nominee of the Democrats.

JIM LEHRER: Not excited.

MARK SHIELDS: Not excited, not euphoric but satisfied. So there isn't a great... in other words for Edwards to stop him there isn't some great natural anti-Kerry constituency.

JIM LEHRER: No "stop Kerry" movement.

MARK SHIELDS: There really isn't a constituency waiting out there to be tapped. The other thing is that seven out of ten said that they thought he was best to beat George W. Bush -- that he was the most electable in spite of the fact that Edwards did have this appeal, demonstrated appeal to independent voters. Why is that important? It's important for two factors. Only 60 percent of the voters yesterday in Wisconsin were democrats. 30 percent were independents. 10 percent were Republicans. So when 80 percent of them are saying they're comfortable with Kerry that's pretty good for him. But I think the other thing he has to face is if he gets into a two-way with Edwards that Edwards is a guy who demonstrated an ability to go into two states where he spent some time, Iowa and Wisconsin, to connect-- the key word this time-- which Kerry has a little problem with emotionally and secondly in both states won the endorsement of the largest and most influential newspaper in that state, the "Des Moines Register" and the "Milwaukee Journal" and really did do better than expected.

JIM LEHRER: Now how euphoric should John Edwards feel, David? Coming in second,six points behind, should he see that as a great push forward?

DAVID BROOKS: A little push forward. Still, the odds are against him. You know, you go back through history, people win states and lose the nomination: Hart and Mondale; Carter-Kennedy. Reagan-Ford. It happens all the time. It's very rare that you win all the states and then win the nomination. You lose a few along the way. Edwards still has a tremendous problem. We have all massive these states, a massive national campaign in the next few days. The wonderful speech he gives is just not going to work because people aren't going to see it.

MARK SHIELDS: I disagree with that. If it becomes a two-way race, he's guaranteed press coverage. So, free media really does work for him. In other words, where paid media really works is in a multi-candidate field that is buying television time or when the other fellow doesn't have, won't be competitive. He won't be competitive. But I think if Edwards picks his spots, if he goes to Ohio, a state that has been hurt economically in the past four years and where his message does work, I think -- what's working for him is he cares more about people like me. It's almost... it is Clintonian. John Kerry used Clinton in Kwame's piece. But I mean ever since Bill Clinton left and said "I feel your pain," I've been feeling my own pain. I think John Edwards is the surrogate on that.

JIM LEHRER: David, you said a while ago that Kerry should have sliced Edwards off the ticket a long time ago. But there are some people saying today-- some people do the same things you all do which is pundify-- are saying this is really good, this is really good for Kerry. He needs to stay out there, continue to run, continue to beat Edwards, continue to have to be tested and show what he can do, et cetera. You don't buy that?

DAVID BROOKS: It was good until yesterday. The extended campaign was good because it got the Democratic message out. It was exciting to watch. Starting yesterday -- now we're going to have two weeks of Kerry is really not that good on the stump. Every time he asks the question he gives a dissertation defense with nine sub-clauses. Now it will be an analysis of why Kerry couldn't wrap it up. And let's face it -- the media loves Edwards.

JIM LEHRER: Why?

DAVID BROOKS: He's a good campaigner and we love process. He's fun to watch. I became a deadhead. I follow John Edwards across various states because he's so much fun.

JIM LEHRER: He was making the same speech.

DAVID BROOKS: It's like the Grateful Dead.

JIM LEHRER: It's not like the Grateful Dead. Did you hear what he said?

MARK SHIELDS: I did hear that, Jim. I followed but I didn't feel like a Grateful Dead person. There were no funny cigarettes.

DAVID BROOKS: But to pick Guy Lombardo and try to translate it for you.

JIM LEHRER: How do you feel like a two-person race is good for Kerry?

MARK SHIELDS: I think there's no arguing that if you started this process two months ago the Democratic Party has prospered from this contest. I mean George Bush has suffered. I mean CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll....

JIM LEHRER: Why?

MARK SHIELDS: 12 points behind. They've made the case against bush. Bush is put on the defensive by other factors as well. Edwards running ten points ahead of him -- admitting that these numbers are numbers written on the edge of the water as tides are changing the sands. They're ephemeral. But they suggest that the process has worked for the Democrats. I think if it goes beyond March 2, it hurts because at that point people say Kerry couldn't put it away. I think right now it hasn't. It's not bitter. It's not ugly. There aren't recriminations.

JIM LEHRER: Do you expect it to get ugly? Do you expect Edwards to go after Kerry?

DAVID BROOKS: This trade issue is a big issue in the Democratic Party. It's a fissure that's sleeping in the Republican Party. Something weird could happen because of this trade issue which is a powerful issue.

MARK SHIELDS: I think politically there's no question. Nobody is going to pick up the free trade mantle in this election year of 2004 - nobody -

JIM LEHRER: Because of the jobs issue?

MARK SHIELDS: Because of the jobs issue and because it's been hurt. I'm a reconstructed free trader, Joe Lieberman anybody else, will pay for it dearly at the polls.

JIM LEHRER: Don't go away. We'll be back in a few minutes to talk about Howard Dean.

FOCUS - THE RISE & FALL

JIM LEHRER: Howard Dean was indeed the other big story coming out of Wisconsin. Today he decided to stop campaigning. And again, Kwame Holman starts us off. ( Cheers and applause )

KWAME HOLMAN: Howard Dean had endured 17 straight caucus and primary contests without a win. His closest advisors urged him to step aside. This afternoon in Burlington, Vermont, the disappointment among his supporters was clear. Dean assured them today is not the end.

HOWARD DEAN: We will continue to fight. This is the end of phase one of this fight, but the fight will go on, and we will be together in that fight. We will continue to bring our message of hope and change to the American people. We will speak out, we will fight on. We will continue to stand up against the dangerous foreign policy which weakens our security and stand up against this president who weakens our civil rights. We will continue to stand up against special interests that prevent change. And we will stand for Americans, working families for jobs and health care, investment in our children, a chance for all Americans to pursue their dreams.

KWAME HOLMAN: Dean repeatedly thanked his scores of campaign volunteers and his contributors nationwide, and reminded them they still were part of a grassroots movement.

HOWARD DEAN: Dean for America will be converted into a new grassroots organization. We need everybody to stay involved. We are, as we always have, going to look at what you have to say about which directions we ought to be going in and what we ought to continue to do together. We are determined to keep this entire organization as vibrant as it has been through this campaign. There are a lot of ways to make change. We are leaving one track, but we are going on another track that will take back America for ordinary people again. ( Cheers and applause )

HOWARD DEAN (June 2003): Today I announce that I am running for the presidency of the United States of America.

KWAME HOLMAN: Dean was, for the most part, a political unknown when he launched his presidential bid last June. Dean attacked the campaign trail with vigor throughout the summer and fall, introducing himself and his ideas to any crowd that would listen, inciting them with his blunt attacks on President Bush and adamant opposition to the war in Iraq.

HOWARD DEAN: We're never going to win another election in this country if we think we're going to beat George Bush by pretending we're Republicans half the time.

KWAME HOLMAN: He used the Internet to attract more than 600,000 supporters and raised $41 million, much of it through online donations. He pushed to the head of the crowded Democratic field, landing on the covers of both "Time" and "Newsweek." He attracted some big-name endorsements, and the support of two of the country's largest labor unions as well. Polls of democratic voters made dean look invincible just weeks before the first contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. But then came a series of well- publicized events, and Dean's support eroded dramatically. He managed only a distant third in the Iowa caucuses behind John Kerry and john Edwards, and his now-famous reaction afterward also damaged his candidacy. Dean's campaign never seemed to recover, though Dean tried to soften his image, sitting for a prime-time television interview with his rarely-seen wife, Judy. Today, Dean made special mention of her contribution to his campaign.

HOWARD DEAN: I also want to thank Judy for at least promoting the debate about whether a woman needs to gaze adoringly at her husband or follow her own career. ( Cheers and applause )

KWAME HOLMAN: Dean also pledged to support the eventual democratic nominee.

HOWARD DEAN: I will do everything I can to beat George W. Bush. I urge you to do the same. But we will not be above in this organization of letting our nominee know that we expect him to adhere to the standards this organization has set for decency, honesty, integrity, and standing up for ordinary American working American people. ( Applause )

KWAME HOLMAN: Howard Dean's improbable journey from long shot to front-runner to "also ran" took it's last turn today, in Burlington, Vermont, where it began.

JIM LEHRER: And to Gwen Ifill.

GWEN IFILL: The Associated Press called the rise and fall of the Howard Dean campaign, "the equivalent of a political supernova, that's a bright explosion that suddenly fades." We're joined now by three reporters who've been covering that phenomenon: Matea Gold of the "Los Angeles Times," Dan Balz of the "Washington Post," and Karen Tumulty of "Time" Magazine. Matea I want to start with you because I know you've been out on the road with the candidate Dean at least since last November. I wonder if you have any sense from listening to what he had to say today when the finally the last hammer fell what he thinks, what the folks in the campaign internally think happened.

MATEA GOLD: Well, you know, it's really been an extraordinary rise and fall for Howard Dean. I think for him today, there's both bitter irony and a comfort in the fact that he more than anyone defined the story line of this presidential campaign so far. Yet ultimately Democrats decided he wasn't the right person to carry the banner and really charge at Bush in the fall. I think that his advisors and Dean to a certain extent recognized that they had a lot of internal slip-ups and mistakes. But he also feels very strongly that he wouldn't have run this campaign any differently, that he was out there telling the truth. That's something we heard him say a lot over the last two weeks.

GWEN IFILL: We also heard him say today that basically not that he was quitting but that the campaign would continue in a small "c", different form. What is this post campaign, campaign supposed to look like?

MATEA GOLD: Well, you know, no one really knows yet. His aides say they're still trying to sort that out -- that Governor Dean himself is going to spend some time thinking about it. He has mentioned that he definitely wants to create an organization focused at defeating President Bush. This was really his signature issue. People rallied around him starting back last summer and fall because he was the first really to take on Bush. Other advisors say they perhaps might expand to something that is devoted to electing more Democrats to Congress and even helping local politicians -- their grassroots supporters -- get elected.

GWEN IFILL: We heard Howard Dean did so well as you saw in kame's piece. He was on the cover of the news magazines. He was going great guns right until the voters got involved and he didn't have any success after that. Let's go back to Iowa. What actually happened in Iowa to precipitate the slide?

DAN BALZ: Well, I think it actually began to happen before Iowa, Gwen. Howard Dean really in a funny way may have peaked when he got the endorsement of former Vice President Gore in December because at that point it focused every bit of attention on him as the frontrunner. I think at that moment he was unprepared for what came at him. He did not handle it particularly well. So a slide probably began at that point. I think that once you got into January, he was not able to recover from that. Then I think they made another mistake which was they were under pressure in some ways to be looking ahead to a campaign against president bush, and I think they forgot that they had to close out the nomination fight. What we learned-- and I think all of us made this mistake-- was that we learned again that most voters, even in Iowa, having seen the candidates for the better part after year or a year-and-a-half begin to focus seriously on the race at the turn of the new year. That happened in Iowa. And at that point Howard Dean was not at his best.

GWEN IFILL: Howard Dean also had a couple of other symbols along the way, Karen. The insider endorsements. He won a lot of labor support as well as al gore support. That didn't catch the way he had hoped. He also encountered some questions. Walk through a couple of them for me. What were the key points where he kind of stumbled?

KAREN TUMULTY: Well, the biggest questions were about his temperament. As Dan suggested, the, you know, just as the big endorsements come around-- al gore, the two biggest unions in the country-- Howard Dean is suddenly on a much bigger stage, a much brighter spotlight. It's at that moment that he begins to say a lot of things that just don't look like what most people would want out of their commander in chief. For instance, he floats an unsubstantiated rumor that somehow President Bush was tipped off by the Saudis before Sept. 11 that the attacks were going to happen. A few days later he said I didn't actually believe that rumor. This is the kind of thing that especially if you're not somebody who has been following politics very closely, you're going to say, you know, what was he thinking? He had stumble after stumble over the course of about three weeks that he just... he was just still trying to recover from the last one when the next one would hit him.

GWEN IFILL: Matea, as you were traveling around the country with Candidate, Governor Dean, what seemed of all these stumbles that Karen was talking about, what seemed to be the key things that -- him up along the way?

MATEA GOLD: Well, I really think the pivotal moment came in early December when Saddam Hussein was caught. That morning governor Dean came out and addressed all of us in an impromptu news conference and was very statesman like. He praised the president. He praised the military. He called it a great day for America but his inclination to really speak his mind really caught up with him. The next day he gave a speech in Los Angeles and he said actually America was not safer with Hussein in custody. And even some of his supporters who agreed with him with that statement felt that it was just impolitic and he was giving himself an opening to Bush and the Republicans. And I think at that moment some seeds of doubt began to creep in. People began to worry that perhaps he would be vulnerable in a general election.

GWEN IFILL: But Howard Dean first caught on at least to the wide public at large, it seems, when he grabbed the mantel as the anti-war candidate. Did that just not carry him through into the primary season?

MATEA GOLD: Well, I think what is another irony for Dean is that in many ways by taking on Bush so strongly with the war he really empowered disaffected Democrats to feel they actually had a chance against this war-time president. Once he did that, those democrats then turned and looked at the field and decided, you know what -- a Vietnam veteran who is tall, who looks statesman like perhaps is the better person to carry this mantel. So I don't think the message disappeared but I think people were looking for someone who really had the whole package to take on the president.

GWEN IFILL: Dan, let's talk about a couple of regional issues. One was when he made the comment about how Democrats ought to be able to go off the white guys in the pick-up trucks who have confederate flags on the back and southerners took offense to that. And another time an old, four years old interview was unearthed in which he criticized the Iowa caucuses and the power they had. Would those have had the same impact on any other candidate other than the frontrunner?

DAN BALZ: No, I don't think so. I don't think they would have-gotten nearly the attention or the scrutiny or the coverage that governor Dean got for them. The confederate flag issue was a funny one. He made a similar comment about a year ago this time at a Democratic National Committee meeting. It passed without much of a blip. In fact he got a lot of applause for it. But he wasn't the frontrunner at the time. He was the guy who was inspiring the crowd and putting some backbone into the democratic party at a time when party activists felt that's what was need. Ed. When it came around again he thought he was on the same ground but he was in a much different place. It was similar with the comments about Iowa. He's tried to explain those and he did at the time. But it was the kind of thing that one of the local television stations in Des Moines gave that story I think 20 minutes or 15 minutes the night it broke. I mean it's unprecedented to get that kind of attention, but that's what happens when you're the frontrunner.

GWEN IFILL: Karen, in the end, how did John Kerry, who was considered to be dead in the water at the end of the year sneak by Howard Dean?

KAREN TUMULTY: Well, as Matea suggested, part of what happened to him is that the rest of the party caught up with him. At the beginning of the race, the conventional wisdom was that the democrats needed to match bush on national security, to agree with him on national security so they could then go and argue it out on domestic issues. Well, Dean proved that that was not the formula. So essentially all the other candidates-- John Kerry probably leading the way-- moved much closer to Dean's message. The other thing that he did was tactically, strategically he went to Iowa, he was standing there as the Dean super nova exploded in the sky. He was standing in the right place to catch the fallout. That I think more than anything else is what explains why john Kerry is where he is today.

GWEN IFILL: Matea, I understand that the Dean press corps decided to give the governor a little farewell gift in advance of his farewell today, a t-shirt that said establishment media and on the back, we have the power. In the end did governor Dean feel that he was a victim of the establishment media such as yourself or ourselves or did he feel that... or did he agree with any of the announcements we're putting forward tonight about what his missteps were along the way.

MATEA GOLD: You know, Gwen, when we gave him that t-shirt yesterday he said the establishment media trumps the internet but not for long. It was something he complained about a lot. On one hand he would say if you're the frontrunner, you're running for president you have to be able to take the heat. He felt he was treated unfairly. He would complain that his comments were taken out of context, that people could do searches on Lexus Nexus and pull a fragment out of something he said and misrepresent it. It's something that frustrated him. I think it speaks to his inexperience on the national stage and really being prepared to deal with the bright spotlight that came with running for president. We decided that we would take on the big name establishment media that he so often teased us with on the trail.

GWEN IFILL: Matea, Dan Balls and Karen Tumulty, thank you all very much.

JIM LEHRER: Back to Mark Shields and David Brooks. Mark, what do you think should be said about Howard Dean tonight?

MARK SHIELDS: Jim, Howard Dean... I thought it was a terrific discussion and there's some terrific points made. One of which I want to amplify on. Howard Dean gave the Democrats their voice. In spite of the "Washington Post" editorial page, in spite of the establishment and the "New Republic" and the... all the best minds saying this is a great war, 70 percent of Democratic primary voters in state after state were opposed to the United States' invasion and occupation of Iraq. Howard Dean stood up and spoke against it, gave the Democrats their voice, and gave the other Democratic candidates their vertebrae. When he began, Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards were all explaining, qualifying, defending their vote. Today every one of them... I mean certainly John Kerry and John Edwards sound a lot more like Howard Dean than he did like them. I think that's the most important thing he did. The second thing he did was he gave the Democratic Party back its soul on fundraising.

JIM LEHRER: Its soul?

MARK SHIELDS: Its soul on fundraising. The Democratic Party had mortgaged its independence and integrity during the Clinton years to big money and all the rest of it and Lincoln bedroom sleep-overs to big money and all the rest of it, and he showed you could do it the right way with small contributions.

JIM LEHRER: He raised $41 million.

MARK SHIELDS: $41 million plus. And the most important thing, one out of four of us his contributors was under the age of 30. That is an amazing, remarkable achievement. You can't get voters but they're writing checks for him.

DAVID BROOKS: He shows we cover money too much. Money doesn't matter. He might have spent closer to $50 million. He's in debt right now. He won zero primaries so money... let's not exaggerate the role of money in this race.

MARK SHIELDS: The other guy has $200 million, David.

DAVID BROOKS: In the future we'll see about that.

JIM LEHRER: What else would you add or subtract?

DAVID BROOKS: I would disagree about how much he's helped the party. Mark said 75 percent of the primary voters opposed the war. 65 percent of Americans support going to the war, still support going to war. I think he made it harder for the Democrats in the fall in this way, in a subtle way. Clinton always said "there's no us and them; There's just us." Clinton had a center out way of building majority. I think Howard Dean ran against Clinton and deeply against the Clinton methodology. I think that's going to hurt Democrats a little in the fall. I think the support that John Kerry and John Edwards did not give to the $87 billion bill for supporting... for the troops in Iraq, they would have voted for it if not for Howard Dean. I think that may come back to haunt them though I do agree finally with mark on the way he did cleanse the soul from what he really could call the Ron Brown disease which did infect the party.

MARK SHIELDS: And still infects the Republicans.

JIM LEHRER: What about the point though that he did mobilize an awful lot of young people who were not... not only were they not supporting... they weren't supporting anybody and probably would not have supported anybody if Howard Dean hadn't come along. What kind of points do you give him for that and what happens to them now?

DAVID BROOKS: In some way... the Deaniacs won't like this, but in some way the race reminded me of the Pat Robertson race in 1988. Robertson mobilized the religious right. Dean mobilized a group of people, the secular left or something like that you could call them. They had not been mobilized. He mobilized them, he put them together. The infrastructure is now there. They were never going to be the majority of the party. I really think you know we over estimated. We made too much of a big deal about him months ago. He had 18 percent of the primary vote. I don't think it was ever going to get higher but it's a solid 18 percent and it is still sitting out there for some candidate who can mobilize those people again just as the religious right is sitting out and needs to be mobilized.

JIM LEHRER: Is that a good comparison, Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: I don't think it is, Jim. I think if you look at Howard Dean, I mean, timing is everything in politics. The mistake he made was getting the covers of "Time" and "Newsweek" as Kwame said in the set up piece in August.

JIM LEHRER: Too early?

MARK SHIELDS: For four months he was the target. It was the target of the press that didn't like him. He was the target as well of all his competitors. John Kerry, as I look at it, has been front-runner for exactly three weeks. He's already restless in that position without the scrutiny. Yes, he did. I thought both the point that Matea and Karen made particularly about the mistake he made about did the president know before September 11? I think what changed the race for him he was the John the Baptist. He made the case for what had to be done by the Democrats. I had two Democrats in Iowa tell me in December-- and I should have listened to them-- that they had decided to vote for John Kerry rather than Howard Dean even though they liked dean better after they saw George Bush go to Iraq on thanksgiving. They said this election is going to be fought on national security.

JIM LEHRER: David, all that's been said about it and will be said about it when it comes time to look back on 2004 and this election year, will Howard Dean be a small asterisk or a large asterisk or will he be mentioned at all?

DAVID BROOKS: He'll be a big story. He is the most interesting thing that's happened this year, the rise and fall of him as a person and of the movement he's created. He's a big story.

JIM LEHRER: You agree it's a big story?

MARK SHIELDS: Most people run for president and leave no footprints or fingerprints. Everybody in politics wants Howard Dean supporters, his list, how do you do it?

JIM LEHRER: He said in his statement I think I'm going to keep them and I'm not going to give them to John Kerry or John Edwards or anybody else. Thank you both. See you on Friday night.

MARK SHIELDS: Thank you.

UPDATE - MARRIAGE TEST

JIM LEHRER: Now, a same-sex marriage update from San Francisco. Spencer Michels has our report.

SPOKESMAN: With this ring...

WOMEN: With this ring...

SPOKESMAN: I do thee wed.

WOMEN: I do thee wed. ( Applause )

SPENCER MICHELS: The marriages between same sex couples continued today at San Francisco City Hall following the city's decision last week to issue licenses regardless of gender. Nearly 2,700 ceremonies have been performed as the nation watched the unique spectacle.

ROBERT TYLER: We would do what was necessary to try to preserve the rule of law.

SPENCER MICHELS: Groups went to court to try to stop the marriages as illegal, a violation of voter initiative that banned same-sex marriage four years ago. But so far they have been unsuccessful. Among those in line hoping to get through the process before the courts intervened, were Andrea Fontenot and Erin Brennan of Santa Barbara, along with their eight-month-old daughter.

ANDREA FONTENOT: Because we have a child it is really important to us, for our union to be legally recognized for us emotionally, you know, our commitment's already here. We know we that we are married.

ERIN BRENNAN: There's definitely emotions, knowing that finally, the larger world will see this is as-- maybe for just a short time-- legal.

SPENCER MICHELS: Besides the personal satisfaction, Fontenot and others saw larger issues at play influencing those who are trying to stop gay marriage.

ANDREA FONTENOT: It's a just simple case of trying to deny a segment of the population their basic rights, make us second class citizens, so... I mean, people are objecting to it on religious grounds. That this is the law, this is the state we're talking about, not religion. So that doesn't have any bearing.

SPENCER MICHELS: Randy Thomasson is executive director of the Campaign for California Families, which had supported the initiative barring same sex marriage.

RANDY THOMASSON: State law is very clear: Marriage is only for a man and a woman. The mayor of San Francisco is violating state law. He's behaving like a dictator, not like a California public official.

SPENCER MICHELS: Gavin Newsom, who became San Francisco mayor five weeks ago, decided to allow same sex marriage by simply telling the city clerk last week to make the state marriage form gender neutral. Newsom said his decision was prompted by President Bush's state of the union speech suggesting the possibility of a constitutional amendment to preserve the marriage between a man and a woman.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Our nation must defend the sanctity of marriage. (Cheers and applause)

SPENCER MICHELS: Newsom, leading a city where about 20 percent of the voters are gay, was dismayed. He considered Proposition 22, the measure barring gay marriage, unconstitutional.

MAYOR GAVIN NEWSOM: We made a statement and I think we have re-ignited a fundamental debate, and that's about discrimination, whether or not the city and county of San Francisco is going to discriminate against same gender couples. And I don't think there's anyone in good conscience, and I mean this sincerely, in good conscience that can tell me that denying the same rights that my wife Kimberly and I have to same sex couples is anything but discrimination.

SPENCER MICHELS: Newsom's decided to keep city hall open for marriages over a rainy holiday weekend which brought out more couples, and the gay men's chorus to serenade them. Freedom

SPENCER MICHELS: While many of these folks have high hopes of being legally married, they are admittedly unsure of how valid that marriage will turn out to be. Some of them expect the legal wrangling to go on for years.

WOMAN: I waited a long time to do this part. With this ring....

SPOKSPERSON: Take your time.

WOMAN: I thee wed.

WOMAN: I thee wed.

SPENCER MICHELS: Gay and lesbian couples have paid their $82 for a license and starting this week are paying $62 for the ceremony. For literary agent Amy Rennert who married her 17 year partner while court was in session the ceremony was part of a legal and political fight.

AMY RENNERT: To be able to be married here in the rotunda of San Francisco City Hall is something I never dreamed would be possible. It's also political. I also give thanks to our Mayor Gavin Newsom for allowing these special days to happen. There'll be more fighting to be done and we'll do it.

SPENCER MICHELS: Vik Amar, professor of constitutional law at the University of California's Hasting Law School sees three main legal issues surrounding the San Francisco controversy. One is whether the conservative groups which brought suit have a right to sue. The second is if Prop. 22, violates the state constitution's equal protection provision.

VIK AMAR: Because that's Newsom's argument, that he's bound by California law, but that the highest California law is the California constitution, which trumps or prevails over an inconsistent voter initiative. And then the third, even if Newsom is right, that the California equal protection clause allows for gay marriages, then there's still the question of whether a mayor should be doing this before a court has invalidated Proposition 22.

SPENCER MICHELS: Those issues all came up in two court cases. One judge put the issue over until Friday. The other told the city to come back until the end of march to explain why it shouldn't stoop gays from marrying. Although that judge issued a cease-and-desist order legal scholars said it would have no stay or effect and would not stay or stop the marriages. The two sides had different interpretations of the decision.

DENNIS HERRERA: We are extremely happy and gratified that a stay did not issue. We are going to be continuing and coming back on March 29, making our arguments on the merits.

SPENCER MICHELS: Robert Tyler is an attorney with the Alliance Defense Fund which is challenging gay marriages.

ROBERT TYLER: We are pleased with the decision. The judge gave us a cease and desist order. It's a very positive step. It's not 100 percent what we were looking for. We were looking for an immediate stay, but the judge did make a determination that there is a violation of the law.

RICHARD ACKERMAN: Every day that goes by where more marriages are allowed to be licensed is one more day that my wife and I have our relationship redefined. There is a harm that permeates this entire nation. Every single married person in the United States is being affected by this ruling right now.

WOMAN: You may make honeymoon.

SPENCER MICHELS: The legal debate certainly is not over yet, according to Professor Amar, who sees a parallel in the Massachusetts supreme court's taking up the gay marriage issue.

VIK AMAR: At a minimum what the court can say is "look, unless and until the appellate courts sort this matter out, until they decide whether the California equal protection clause invalidates the voter initiative Prop. 22, that we are not going to recognize these marriages in the interim. Until the California supreme court weighs in, and ultimately they're going to have to decide, just as the Massachusetts supreme court decided, what the state constitution means.

SPENCER MICHELS: Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger announced he considers same sex marriages a violation of state law and urged the courts to act quickly. One court action has already been appealed and the state has said it will not accept marriages licenses from same-sex couples. Meanwhile, Newsom has vowed to let the weddings continue until a court directs him not to.

CONVERSATION

JIM LEHRER: Finally tonight, a conversation with an author of a new book, and to Ray Suarez.

RAY SUAREZ: The book is "Breathing Space: A Spiritual Journey in the South Bronx." The author is Heidi Neumark. She's been the pastor of the Transfiguration Lutheran Church in the South Bronx for 20 years. Before moving on, her congregation was a mix of Hispanics and African Americans in one of the nation's poorest communities. Why did you choose this work?

HEIDI NEUMARK: Well, from being a very young child, I always had a strong concern for justice and a sense that the church, as I got older, that the church needed to be in places where I felt it was going away from. I think that's what the gospel is about: God being present everywhere, particularly where people are more on the edge of life and death.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, in the book, with terrifying detail, you walk us through the real lived lives of a lot of the people of the neighborhood where your church sat.

HEIDI NEUMARK: Mm-hmm.

RAY SUAREZ: And I'm wondering if you really understood how utterly and totally burdened their lives were before you came to live with them in the South Bronx.

HEIDI NEUMARK: No. I think... I think that's a process of getting to know people and I didn't know until I actually began to walk with people and share their lives, what were the multi-levels of struggles that people have.

RAY SUAREZ: Yet you couldn't make poor people no longer poor; you couldn't make chronically sick people-- many of the people who live in that area suffer with chronic illnesses caused by their environment-- you couldn't take away those problems. What were you bringing them by bringing them the church, by helping the church be in a place like the South Bronx?

HEIDI NEUMARK: Well, I wouldn't say I brought the church. I think also people there had... a lot of people are already filled with the spirit of god, but I think that the church brings hope and a way to put legs on hope, a vision that things can be different, that the word that society says to people and was certainly giving to people in that community that, "you're not worth very much so we're going to do all of our waste transfer stations, sewage treatment plants here, build prisons instead of schools," that that isn't how God sees people. And so I think that the church brings a sign of hope and possibility.

RAY SUAREZ: At one point when you're doing work with a community organization you draw a distinction between yourself as a pastor and what community organizers do. Yet, you were involved in many of the same battles for health care, for a responsive social welfare system, for schools that took care of the needs of the children that you knew in the neighborhood. Did you sometimes feel like more... more like one than the other?

HEIDI NEUMARK: Not really. I think as a pastor, for instance, like all churches we baptize. We baptize and when we baptize people-- children, babiesor adults-- we anoint them with oil as in the Hebrew scriptures, prophets, kings and priests were anointed. We say, you know "now you are precious, you are beloved." We can't really do that and then send kids out and say, "well, you're beloved here but now go out and be treated like dirt. Go to substandard schools and maybe end up in prison." To me there's a real disconnect there-- that what happens on Sunday morning is really something that ought to transform the rest of life as well.

RAY SUAREZ: Your decision as a life's work to share the sufferings of these people didn't implicate only yourself though. You brought your husband along, your children were born there. Were there times where you felt that your desire to have a vocation among these people was pulling them along to places that they wouldn't otherwise go and wasn't always great for them?

HEIDI NEUMARK: Well I guess the jury is still out on that. Our children are teenagers now, but it's hard to imagine life being different. But I think that we all need to be connected to one another. I think it was good for our children to know how people live in different parts of the world and different parts of the United States, to feel... I mean, for them, the South Bronx is home. They're very upset about moving. I remember a Monopoly game came out of New York City and the cheapest properties on the board, like the Baltic Place, was the Bronx. They were absolutely infuriated by that. I don't think that they felt that bad about it.

RAY SUAREZ: One thing that impressed me about the lives that you touched during your time at transfiguration is how optimism manages to hang on and survive in the face of crushing life experience. It must be in some ways a kind of privilege to work with people who can keep their chin up when so many things are going badly.

HEIDI NEUMARK: Oh, absolutely. It was just the triumph of grace is an amazing gift to be surrounded by people who just rose up in the midst of such incredible obstacles. That's really why I wrote the book. I wanted other people to be able to share in that experience and also perhaps be transformed by it, as I've been.

RAY SUAREZ: But there were also times where it read like you understood that your canoe, though still in the water and floating, was in danger of being swamped. That the enormity of what people in that area had to deal with was threatening to tip you over, too.

HEIDI NEUMARK: That's true. But I think one of the things that always kind of, I guess-- to use the canoe image-- stabilized the boat, was the recognition of those who had overcome so much more.

RAY SUAREZ: So today, is this part of the Bronx a better place to live, a more hopeful place to live than it was when you came to transfiguration in 1984?

HEIDI NEUMARK: I would say in many, many ways absolutely yes, that the work of transfiguration with other churches, with a mosque and the work of other community groups and people has really transformed the face of the South Bronx. But there's a lot still to be done. The schools there are still among some of the worst in the city. And it's still the case that a few blocks from the church there's a prison for ten- to fifteen- year-olds. It costs I think it's about $120,000 a year per child in the prison where the school across the street it's $6,000-$7,000 a year invested per child. So if we're continuing to invest in prisons and not in schools, that's the kind of hidden crime.

RAY SUAREZ: Are there people that you were afraid that you were going to lose, that they were going to lose themselves, who today aremaking it?

HEIDI NEUMARK: I just had a really wonderful experience. Through this book, I was in Milwaukee doing a reading and a young man came in with his wife and his name was Willie. He was in the very first group of teenagers who came to the church. He came to a karate class. He became very involved in the church. His mother was a crack addict who died of AIDS. He never knew his dad. He had just a horrible home situation and became active in the church through the youth programs. He ended up tutoring in our youth programs. Then he went to a church camp. He eventually moved to Milwaukee. I haven't seen him in years. He walked in to where I was with his wife and two children, and he told me that he runs a camp for kids out of inner city Milwaukee. I just burst into tears. He was in tears. His wife was in tears. I said, you know, "If nothing else happened out of 20 years in the South Bronx, this was worth it." Of course a lot more happened, but...

RAY SUAREZ: A good day at work for Pastor Neumark.

HEIDI NEUMARK: Well, and for the people of the South Bronx.

RAY SUAREZ: The book is "Breathing Space: A Spiritual Journey Through the South Bronx." Pastor Neumark, good to talk to you.

HEIDI NEUMARK: Thank you so much. Good to talk with you.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the major developments of the day. Howard Dean announced an end to his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination after finishing third in Wisconsin behind John Kerry and John Edwards. Two suicide truck bombs in Iraq killed at least ten people, wounded more than 100 others. And in Iran, a huge railroad explosion killed nearly 300 people, and injured more than 400. We'll see you online, and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.