The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

GWEN IFILL: Good evening, I'm Gwen Ifill. Jim Lehrer is off. On the NewsHour tonight, our summary of the news: Then an update on Hurricane Katrina: The physical damage, and the cleanup to come. The new Iraqi constitution: Does it hold the promise of democracy or the seeds of division? And a Newsmaker interview with democratic Sen. Patrick Leahy about next week's confirmation hearings for Supreme Court nominee John G. Roberts.

NEWS SUMMARY

GWEN IFILL: Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast hard today with pounding winds and flooding, from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. The storm blew ashore between New Orleans and Biloxi, Mississippi, leaving a broad swath of devastation. It killed at least two people and damaged thousands of homes. Spencer Michels has our report.

SPENCER MICHELS: Just before Katrina made landfall this morning, the giant hurricane weakened slightly, from a category five, the deadliest and strongest class with 175 mile-per-hour winds, to a category four storm, with winds approaching 150 miles per hour. Katrina also turned eastward, enough to spare New Orleans the direct hit the city had long feared. But the mammoth storm still packed awesome power, mighty winds, blinding torrents of rain, and deadly storm surge, a wall of water 20 feet high in places. Katrina takes its place among the strongest hurricanes to ever hit the United States, and the fiercest in more than a decade. The storm zeroed in on the bayous and lowlands of southeastern Louisiana. And beyond, it plowed into the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, drowning the resort towns of Gulfport and Biloxi. Gov. Haley Barbour took early stock of the damage this afternoon.

GOV. HALEY BARBOUR: The question is: Do I have any estimate than what the cost of damage is? Higher than I can count but I can't be much more specific than that. We don't have any specific casualty reports. But we know there will be some.

SPENCER MICHELS: Portions of Alabama's Gulf Coast also took a pounding, as the storm surged up Mobile Bay. By midday, Katrina had weakened, but kept blasting north; huge swaths of the area suffered power outages. Heavy flooding could also affect sewer and water systems in the region. In New Orleans, there was widespread flooding and wind damage, but nothing approaching the predictions of near-biblical destruction that led Mayor Ray Nagin to order the city emptied yesterday. The crescent city is surrounded by water, Lake Pontchartrain to the north, the Gulf of Mexico to the east and the Mississippi River, which snakes its way around the southern limits. Making matters worse, much of New Orleans lies below sea level. Though it is protected by a bulwark of levees, and a system of water pumps and drainage canals, it was the prospect of a 30-foot storm surge overwhelming those defenses and inundating the city that led to the unprecedented mandatory evacuation order. Mile after mile of cars jammed the highways heading out of New Orleans yesterday as nearly 400,000 residents left for somewhat-higher ground.

WOMAN: We've never left before so this is kind of new for us.

MAN: I am worried but there's nothing I can do about it but pray.

SPENCER MICHELS: Around 100,000 stayed behind to ride out the storm, either unable or unwilling to leave. The city opened emergency shelters, including the 70,000-seat Louisiana superdome. Roughly 10,000 Orleaners sought refuge there. This morning, as Katrina roared by, it peeled back two small sections of the dome.

GWEN IFILL: The hurricane disrupted oil output in the Gulf and the price of crude topped $70 a barrel overnight. It slid back later and ended up gaining just over a dollar to settle at $67.20 a barrel. White House officials said today President Bush might open the strategic petroleum reserve. That could give refineries a temporary supply to make up for disruptions caused by the storm. The president has already declared Louisiana and Mississippi major disaster areas. That sets the stage for federal recovery efforts. Mr. Bush took note of the emergency, as he spoke today in El Mirage, Arizona.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: My fellow citizens here in Arizona and across the country are saying our prayers for those affected by the Hurricane Katrina. Our Gulf Coast is getting hit and hit hard. I want the folks there on the Gulf Coast to know that the federal government is prepared to help you when the storm passes.

GWEN IFILL: We'll have much more on the hurricane right after this News Summary.

In Iraq today, Sunni Arabs denounced the new draft constitution. Thousands of people protested in Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit. Their leaders urged Sunnis to vote against it in this October's referendum. Shiite and Kurdish leaders submitted the document to parliament on Sunday. The Sunnis objected to creating powerful Shiite and Kurdish states, among other things. We'll have more on this story later in the program.

The United Nations reported today the production of opium in Afghanistan has fallen, but only slightly. A top U.N. official said a crackdown reduced the acreage of opium poppies by more than 20 percent. But he said the actual yield shrank by far less just 2 percent thanks to ideal growing conditions.

ANTONIO MARIA COSTA: The conditions were very favorable to good agricultural harvest in general not only opium. Heavy rainfalls, snowfalls, no infestation of vermin and microbes against the opium plant resulted in a very significant increase in the productivity.

GWEN IFILL: The decrease in opium was the first since the fall of the Taliban in 2001. Afghanistan still produces nearly 90 percent of the world's supply.

A top Senate Democrat pressed today to see all documents on Supreme Court nominee John Roberts. Sen. Patrick Leahy of Vermont, the ranking Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, met with Roberts on Capitol Hill today. Afterward, he told the NewsHour he wants the material Roberts wrote in the Solicitor General's Office, under the first President Bush. The administration says legal advice to a president should remain confidential. We will have the Leahy interview later in the program.

Accounting firm KPMG admitted to creating illegal tax shelters today. The company agreed to pay $456 million in federal penalties and fees. It will also create a Compliance and Ethics Board. IRS Commissioner Mark Everson said the firm's wealthy clients avoided billions of dollars in taxes between 1996 and 2002.

MARK EVERSON: The only purpose of these abusive deals was to further enrich the already wealthy and to line the pockets of KPMG partners. KPMGs actions were a direct assault on our progressive system of income taxation. And left unchecked would have badly eroded the faith of hard- working tax-paying Americans in the fairness of government itself.

GWEN IFILL: Federal prosecutors also indicted eight former KPMG employees on charges they tried to defraud the IRS. On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 65 points to close at 10,463. The NASDAQ rose more than 16 points to close above 2,137.

That's it for the News Summary tonight, now it's on to: Hurricane Katrina; the new Iraqi constitution; and Sen. Patrick Leahy.

UPDATE - HURRICANE KATRINA

GWEN IFILL: Now, Hurricane Katrina and its immediate aftermath. We begin with the latest on Katrina's path. And for that, I'm joined by Joe Bastardi, meteorologist and chief hurricane forecaster for AccuWeather. Thanks for joining us.

JOE BASTARDI: It's my pleasure.

GWEN IFILL: How big a storm in the end was this?

JOE BASTARDI: It was a tremendous storm. The barometric pressure in the storm was, I believe, the fourth lowest on record. Also for it to hit the United States it probably was the -- in the top five or six as far as strength goes -- 918 millibars. To put it in perspective with Andrews, Andrew was 921 millibars which a measure of the barometric pressure of the depth of the low pressure of the storm. This was a much bigger storm and when the totals come in I'm sure it will have justified a lot of what people were saying about it.

Now I want to make something clear that's sort of a pet peeve of mine. This was not the perfect track to take New Orleans under. It was a very, very bad storm and a very risky storm for New Orleans, but the ideal, perfect track, I'm going to show you that in just a moment was not this track. I think what happened was a lot of people got carried away with some things and turned around and said it wasn't as bad as what it was supposed to be. It was every bit as bad. And when the damage figures come in, we will be seeing that.

You see this list up here -- this ranks Number 4. I mean there's been over 1,000 hurricanes we've recorded. This is the fourth strongest one we've ever recorded at 902 millibars. It did weaken a little bit as it came ashore simply because it was so strong when it was out there over the water because see the past was just up to the east of New Orleans.

By the way our forecast tracker here at Accu Weather had a six-mile error on the storm coming east of New Orleans. We forecasted over to 89.5. It actually got to 89.6 west of New Orleans - almost 90.2 - yes?

GWEN IFILL: And as we look at this track right now, where is it going? We know when it came ashore when it was still in the Gulf it was a Category 5. It came ashore at Category 4. Now I understand it's a Category 1. Where does it go from here? It looks like effects are going pretty far north.

JOE BASTARDI: Well, yes, this is going to break pressure wind records all the way up into the Ohio Valley here. What I did want to point out though for the education of our audiences the perfect track for New Orleans comes from the southeast. It actually happened in 1947 and you see when that happens, the storm surge gets pushed straight in. This particular situation, the storm surge got directed more at Mississippi. The fear was back into Lake Pontchartrain, and now to the north.

Now, getting to the future path of this storm, let's take a look at the radar, and you can see the band of heavy showers and thunderstorms pushing up to the north, the storm continuing its way up to the north-northeast, and it's making it, you know, it's pointing which way it wants to go for you up in there. And there goes the effects all the way Tuesday and Wednesday up into the Great Lakes and into the northeastern part of the United States, very warm tropical air up in the eastern part of the United States -- the real fight zone where we're going to see heavy rain.

There is sort of a silver lining to this cloud. There's no cold air around. Now, you may say to yourself, what does that have to do with anything? Well the colder the air is on the western side of these storms the more the clash occurs because of all the warm, humid air and the heavier the rainfall. So while there is going to be heavy to excessive rainfalls, it won't be like Floyd where back in 1999 where there was record cold coming into the storm and forcing excessiverainfalls on the western side of the storm in a widespread fashion. This will have damage. This will have tornadoes and it will have wind. People up in Cincinnati and southern Ohio will be saying, wow, it's really windy here for a storm.

GWEN IFILL: Can I ask you about the tornadoes. Have we seen evidence that there are tornados that are spinning off of this storm already?

JOE BASTARDI: Well, there already have been some tornadoes reported but here's what happens: As the storm gets further inland, drier air gets into the hurricane circulation at different levels. When you get that drier air and you have a discontinuous weakening of the storm it weakens quicker in the low levels than the upper levels it creates that wind shear that causes tornadic activity to occur.

However, there is one interesting thing. They like to occur more when the storms come up east of the Appalachians because of the wind coming off the mountains accelerates this process I was talking about so this will have a significant effect with tornadoes, maybe all the way up into Pennsylvania and on into New England but not as bad as if, you know, with Ivan and Frances and some of these other storms they come up east of the Appalachians, Jean, if I remember correctly, all these things were busting one tornado record after another in there.

And, by the way, it's not the end of September. It's the end of August. Katrina, the K-storm here --

GWEN IFILL: You're thinking there's more to come.

JOE BASTARDI: Oh, yes. This pattern is -- we've got our hurricane tracking shoes on, believe me.

GWEN IFILL: Okay. We'll be in touch with you then on that. Thank you very much, Joe Bastardi.

JOE BASTARDI: My pleasure.

GWEN IFILL: Now, a look at the damage done so far by Hurricane Katrina. This afternoon, Jeffrey Brown spoke with two officials from the hardest hit areas. First, Robert Latham, executive director of the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency.

JEFFREY BROWN: Mr. Latham, thanks for joining us. How extensive an area has been damaged?

ROBERT LATHAM: Well, I think it would be safe to say that this is truly a catastrophic event that could easily be compared to Camille and that we're looking at significant damage and destruction across the entire Gulf Coast in several counties inland and as the tropical storm continues to move inland, even as a Category 1 hurricane, it will possibly cause more damage inland to include power lines down, damaged homes, businesses, and probably damage to the infrastructure that supports it. So we still have several hours before we're going to know any idea about what the extent of the damage is, but certainly along the Gulf Coast we know that it's extensive.

JEFFREY BROWN: Do you have any casualty reports yet?

ROBERT LATHAM: Right now we have one report of a fatality in Warren County. A tree fell on a mobile home.

JEFFREY BROWN: Gov. Haley Barber had worried earlier today about the people who had not evacuated the area. Do you know how many people that is?

ROBERT LATHAM: I have no idea. I know that just based on the traffic counts that we saw on the evacuation routes, they were not as high as I would hope they would be. Therefore, I have to assume that a lot of people did not evacuate. So, you know, based on that, I have to say that there are probably large numbers that did not evacuate.

JEFFREY BROWN: And what about in shelters? Do you know how many people there are there and their situation?

ROBERT LATHAM: Yeah, we have actually several thousand people in shelters, but we have adequate shelter space statewide that could house, you know, additional evacuees, but, you know, at this point we're not looking at evacuation. That part is over. Now it's just a matter of our citizens remaining where they are and not leaving the shelter or their friends' or relatives' or wherever they may be right now. They need to sit tight, do not attempt to get out on the highways. It is not safe to get on the highways and to travel anywhere at this time. And as this situation deteriorates inland, it could get worse in north Mississippi, so people should just sit tight wherever they are right now, not risking getting out on the highways. It's very unsafe out there.

JEFFREY BROWN: Tell us a little bit more about the structural damage we know of so far in the coastal cities.

ROBERT LATHAM: Well, all I can tell you right now is because there is significant, you know, winds still down there, we are able at this point to get out with search-and-rescue resources in Jackson County and Harrison County to start trying to rescue some of these people that have been identified as being trapped. We do know we have extensive damage to most all of the hospitals on the coast and suspect there will be major damage to critical infrastructure and certainly homes and businesses as well.

JEFFREY BROWN: And do you know whether some of these cities are still underwater?

ROBERT LATHAM: Absolutely. I mean, we're talking about it taking as much as six hours for the storm surge that came in-- some measured twenty to twenty-two feet, maybe even twenty-six feet-- that it could take six hours for those storm waters to recede.

JEFFREY BROWN: I know you said you're trying to get emergency people in. How quickly do you think that will happen, and what kind of system do you have in place to do it?

ROBERT LATHAM: Well, I think that the time it will take to get those search-and-rescue resources in the affected areas will be minimal because we have already pre-staged many of those resources in strategic locations that could minimize the response time.

We had also prepared our local communities for the possibility that the initial search-and-rescue would be something that would fall on their back. But we have adequate resources that have been brought in from other parts of the state. We have search-and-rescue resources from FEMA, as well as the National Guard, the Coast Guard.

Every asset that you can imagine in this nation is prepared to respond and get into the affected area to ensure that we have a swift search-and-rescue mission.

JEFFREY BROWN: And is there any estimate at this point on when you'd be able to let people come back into the area?

ROBERT LATHAM: Absolutely not. I have no idea when that may be, but I think the word is that our citizens should not even attempt to leave where they are right now and return to the affected area.

Even when the weather clears and improves, you know, access to the affected area will be restricted. People just need to stay where they are, because they will not be allowed to enter the area that -- where they live until we're sure it's safe to do so.

JEFFREY BROWN: I suppose, though, with power outages you'd have trouble even communicating that message to people.

ROBERT LATHAM: Absolutely. But we are also, you know, using every outlet that the media has; we're also making sure that we get that word to our shelters so they can pass that on to the evacuees that are sheltered there. They just need to stay there. Do not try to return to the affected area.

JEFFREY BROWN: All right, Robert Latham, of the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, thank you very much.

ROBERT LATHAM: Thank you very much.

JEFFREY BROWN: Now a report on the situation in New Orleans. For that I'm joined on the phone by Peter Whoriskey of the Washington Post.

Peter, many are worried this storm could destroy the city. How extensive was the damage?

PETER WHORISKEY: I don't have my hands on any precise figures; I'm not sure that there are any out there yet, but it certainly wasn't the storm that destroyed New Orleans, downtown New Orleans as I walked through today. There's a lot of repair work to be done; there's several downtown high rises that are windowless, but it wasn't the kind of end of the century storm that everyone had predicted.

JEFFREY BROWN: What kind of structural damage are you seeing?

PETER WHORISKEY: The most striking damage was in the Hyatt Regency which is in the downtown. It was a place where lots of people had for years ridden out the hurricanes in New Orleans because they do this -- have this thing they call vertical evacuation in which they get up. The big fear here is water, of course. The problem this time was that the windows in the Hyatt Regency blew out. And they had to evacuate those guests to ballrooms inside the hotel.

JEFFREY BROWN: And what about the flooding situation, are there parts of the city that are underwater? Is it easy to get around?

PETER WHORISKEY: It's very difficult to get around. The flooding is -- it's here and there but where it is, it's one or two feet. That's difficult for even, you know, high-riding pick-up trucks to get through as we learned. It's not the kind of flooding that they had feared but it's still enough to make things a mess.

JEFFREY BROWN: Is there any determination of casualties at this point?

PETER WHORISKEY: I have asked that. The answer that I've gotten back from some of the local emergency people is it's too early to tell. They don't have any to report, the ones that I've spoken with, but they haven't finished their rescue missions either.

JEFFREY BROWN: Early in the day, the mayor talked about as many as 20 buildings that had collapsed. Have you heard any more about that?

PETER WHORISKEY: I have not heard anything more about that. The buildings that I saw in the downtown, you could see that there were some old buildings that looked like they had been in a state of collapse already that were already falling down. Those are now -- already fallen down. But, you know, most of the habitable buildings don't look to me certainly in downtown New Orleans like they're falling down.

JEFFREY BROWN: There was a lot of talk, of course, about the levees that surround the city, whether they would be overrun, whether they would hold up. What's the situation with those?

PETER WHORISKEY: Substantial success. There are numerous reports of problems here and there, but had there been the kind of levy breaks that they had feared the French Quarter would be underwater and right now you can walk down portions of the sidewalk.

JEFFREY BROWN: We have heard reports of as many as 40,000 homes flooded in the area just east of New Orleans. Do you know anything about that?

PETER WHORISKEY: No. I'm in New Orleans and it's hard enough getting information out of -- in New Orleans itself given how difficult it is to get around. People, even some of the emergency people, don't know what's going on a couple miles away.

JEFFREY BROWN: Well, that was my next question about the emergency people. Are they able to get in to neighborhoods? Are they able to get at anything at this point?

PETER WHORISKEY: Sure they are. They have -- some of the state emergency people have some 12 boats out there looking for people in difficult-to-get-to areas, areas that I presume ordinarily you could drive to but are now under water.

JEFFREY BROWN: You mentioned the super dome. We've heard a lot about the people sheltered there. Do you know how many people are there and what about the reports of damage to it?

PETER WHORISKEY: There was substantial damage to the exterior of the roof. About half of the roof covering has flexed off, just sort of peeled off in the heavy winds. But it didn't look to me, as I went by today, that there was any daylight peeking through or substantial amounts of daylight anyway.

JEFFREY BROWN: Are there other shelters? Are you seeing people back out on the streets at this point?

PETER WHORISKEY: I was out just about an hour ago. There were only a handful of people out there. It's very difficult to get by. A couple of the cars, including one of the ones that I was traveling with got flat tires, because of the debris on the road. The others stall out in the one or two feet of water that they have.

JEFFREY BROWN: And, after that huge evacuation, are officials talking yet about when they're going to let all those people back into the city.

PETER WHORISKEY: They haven't said yet. They've only said we don't want 'em back yet; it's too much of a mess here.

JEFFREY BROWN: All right, Peter Whoriskey of the Washington Post, thank you very much.

PETER WHORISKEY: Sure.

GWEN IFILL: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight: The new Iraqi constitution; and Sen. Patrick Leahy.

FOCUS - DIVIDED THEY STAND

GWEN IFILL: Iraq's draft constitution. Ray Suarez has the story.

RAY SUAREZ: Sunnis spilled into the streets of Saddam's hometown, Tikrit, today, and denounced Iraq's draft constitution.

SPOKESMAN (Translated): Residents of Saladin Province and Tikrit along with its districts and suburbs and all honest Iraqis fully reject the constitution.

RAY SUAREZ: Many Sunnis boycotted the January election, reducing their initial representation in the constitutional process until the U.S. pressed for more Sunni input in drafting this constitution.

Now, they're protesting the way it was drafted and the way the stronger and larger Shiite and Kurdish groups pushed the draft document through. Anti-constitution forces have even gained the unlikely support of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. But the head of the drafting committee, a Shiite, painted a positive picture of the process.

HUMAM HAMMOUDI, Iraq Constitution Drafting Committee (Translated): In my view, and in the view of many other members of the drafting committee, this constitution represents a very advanced experience in the region and a marvelous experience for the Iraqi people.

RAY SUAREZ: On Sunday, smiling negotiators posed for the cameras just before signing the draft constitution. The Iraqi president, Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, said the move meant the Oct. 15 referendum would go ahead as planned.

PRESIDENT JALAL TALABANI (Translated): The constitution is left to our people to approve or reject it. I hope that our people will accept it despite some flaws.

RAY SUAREZ: But Sunni negotiators soundly rejected it and did not endorse the document.

ABDUL-NASSER AL-JANABI, Sunni Negotiator (Translated): We therefore declare our rejection of the paragraphs in the draft on which we did not reach a consensus, which would render the draft illegitimate.

RAY SUAREZ: Today in Arizona, President Bush praised and backed the Iraqis work.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Instead of using guns to decide the fate of the future, Iraqis from all aspects of their society came together and wrote a constitution. (Applause) This constitution is one that honors women's rights and freedom of religion. (Applause) Not everybody agreed with it, but now the Iraqi people get to decide. They get to debate. They get to make the decision this fall as to whether or not that constitution will be the constitution that governs their society.

RAY SUAREZ: But just last week, the Bush administration touted the importance of a consensus document. Here's Defense Secretary Rumsfeld:

DONALD RUMSFELD: Anyone knows that the constitution would be defeated if it stiffed any one of those three units.

RAY SUAREZ: Sunnis could derail the draft constitution if they vote against it by two-thirds in any three provinces.

RAY SUAREZ: And for more on Iraq's constitutional wrangling and its outcome we're joined by two Americans who were born in Iraq: Laith al-Saud is a lecturer in social sciences at Harold Washington College in Chicago. Rend al-Rahim Francke is executive director of the Iraq Foundation, which promotes democracy in Iraq; she served as Iraq's acting ambassador to the U.S. last year under the country's first interim government. She returned last week from nearly three months in Iraq. Joining them is Spence Spencer, Washington director of the Public International Law and Policy Group, a nonprofit that provides legal assistance to governments in transition; he spent two weeks in Iraq in July advising the constitutional committee.

Well, Ambassador, does it represent a victory for this young Iraqi government that they decided to just push on and wait for the Sunnis to join or not join later?

REND AL-RAHIM FRANCKE: Well, I think it certainly is an achievement. This constitution has been a process that has tried to bring everybody together under one banner, and it was done under great pressure. It was a sort of a political pact amongst groups that had to build trust amongst themselves and had to talk about extremely important and very difficult problems, so I think the fact that we have a text is an enormous achievement. They decided to present it to the national assembly even though there isn't 100 percent consensus, but we are already beyond the deadline and therefore I think it was the right decision to give it to the national assembly and then we have a referendum in October.

RAY SUAREZ: Laith, al-Saud, an enormous achievement?

LAITH AL-SAUD: No, I wouldn't say so. The constitutional committee broke the law several times. They were unable to achieve consensus although this was a guarantee of the constitutional committee when it became a commission and brought the so-called Sunni community within the process. We have to understand that the role of Zalmay Khalilzad was rather destructive, in this case the ubiquitous presence of him in every and all facets of this constitutional drafting process.

The role of the United States is exactly what is at issue in Iraqi politics. And for Zalmay Khalilzad to have such a ubiquitous presence exacerbated the very issue that the so-called Sunni community as well as those opposed to the U.S. presence in Iraq are making.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Spence Spencer, you were an American who was closely watching the process, advising the process. Do you agree with Laith al-Saud that there was a problem with the level of American participation?

SPENCE SPENCER: I think the American presence there is so broad and deep that it's difficult to avoid not speaking with Americans on the topic. I can speak from my own experience that we were very strongly cautioned to make sure that the technical assistance that we provided was good and technical only and to leave the drafting and the decision-making to the Iraqis themselves.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, you've been a part of processes like these in other countries. Have there been times when parties have just had to sort of agree to permanently disagree and move on to accomplish what they could?

SPENCE SPENCER: Exactly. And a lot of this happens in prior conflicts that I've worked on. A lot of people have just been tired of war. A lot of people have been wanting a settlement and I think in this case, the consensus, as Secretary Rumsfeld said, was simply not there to have a more universal agreement that can bring Iraq together.

RAY SUAREZ: But Secretary Rumsfeld also said that this thing could fall apart if one of the three major constituent groups feel, they're, quote, stiffed.

SPENCE SPENCER: That's why I would label this an achievement. It's an achievement today but we have to see how it all turns out on Oct. 15.

RAY SUAREZ: Let's talk about Oct. 15, Ambassador. Can this be stopped at the ballot box?

REND AL-RAHIM FRANCKE: Just to go back to what Secretary Rumsfeld said, the transitional administrative law under which we are now living says that if three governates turn down the constitution by a two-thirds vote in each, then this constitution is defeated. The question becomes a question of numbers. Can any group or can a number of groups combined muster a two-thirds majority in three governates?

RAY SUAREZ: How do you answer that question?

REND AL-RAHIM FRANCKE: I don't know the answer to that. My gut feeling-- you know, it's not good to predict-- my gut feeling is it's going to be very difficult. A lot of groups are going to have to get together and are going to have to vote in a bloc. That was going to be a little difficult. It could be done. I'm not saying it can't but I think it's unlikely. I think a bigger question and a more interesting question is what happens if this constitution passes but passes with a marginal vote -- in other words, it only gets 53 percent or 54 percent of the national vote and therefore 46 people vote no for it across the board, across the country? That is going to be more of a problem. The constitution will be in effect. But it will mean that there is a substantial proportion of the population that is not entirely satisfied with the constitution.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Laith al-Saud, let me get a quick read from you on both those questions. First, given the structure of the Oct. 15 vote, is it possible for the Sunnis who are disaffected plus perhaps supporters of Moqtada al Sadr to stop the constitution?

LAITH AL-SAUD: Yes, I agree. I have to respectfully disagree with the ambassador. There's obviously if you look at some of the protests that took place in Kirkuk, we have followers of Moqtada al-Sadr joining the so-called Sunni community in denouncing this constitution. And throughout the country we know that Moqtada al-Sadr has millions of followers not to mention possibly millions of followers in Baghdad itself. So with the joining of Moqtada al-Sadr and other prominent Shiites in Iraq, we can certainly see the possibility of this constitution being voted down in October. In fact, I would argue that it has a strong chance of not passing the referendum in October.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, let me get a quick response to the ambassador's other point that there's also threat in the idea of it passing narrowly, that there will be in the country a large bloc of people who don't want it and yet it becomes the law of the land despite that.

LAITH AL-SAUD: Well, if we consider that, what we have here is a matter of convenience for those who are opposed to this process. On the one hand, the constitutional committee violated the TAL by not requesting an extension by Aug.1. On the other hand, we had some of the fumblings that took place in the past two weeks in which the world was able to witness the inability of the constitutional committee to reach a consensus. So the opposition is in a place of convenience. On the one hand, it can advocate, it can campaign against voting against this constitution in October. If it fails to achieve its ends, it can always invoke that this constitutional progress was illegal or illegitimate because of the heavy-handed role of the United States.

RAY SUAREZ: Spence Spencer, what's at risk here with these various possible outcomes?

SPENCE SPENCER: Well, certainly for the people of Iraq, a very prolongation of the violence and, you know, the continued sort of stalling of any reconstruction for the country. I really should stress that, you know, people are looking not just at this constitutional process but also about electricity and water and basic infrastructure that has been denied these guys. And you always want to put that in that sort of a context.

For the United States just for example, U.S. forces it's well known are very stretched in Iraq and around the world and a rerunning of the national assembly elections in December would prolong U.S. force levels for several months.

RAY SUAREZ: Let's give people at home a look at some of the particular provisions in this draft constitution. In Article 2, it calls for Islam to be the official religion of the state and a basic source of legislation. It says that no law can contradict the undisputed rules of Islam. No law can contradict the principles of democracy, and the Supreme Court will have a number of judges and experts in Islamic jurisprudence.

Some of these formulations, Ambassador, seem purposefully vague -- specific in some senses, vague in other ones. Who gets to say what is undisputed in Islam?

REND AL-RAHIM FRANCKE: Right. In fact, throughout the constitution all the 154 articles of it are marked by some ambiguity. I think this is both a weakness of the constitution but also an opening, a strength. Just as you read, first of all, Islam no laws will contradict the basic tenets or... of Islam but also not the principles of democracy.

There are openings for everybody here. The question is: Who is going to make the better argument? Which law is going to prevail? Is it a law that is more Islamic, or is it a law that is more democratic? I think the real battles about the constitution are going to start after Oct. 15. We are going to have fights to define what this constitution really means in terms of legislation and in terms of implementation. And I think you're going to see the lines drawn in terms of the political forces on the ground, in terms of the elections that are coming on Dec. 15 in order to give much more focus and much more meaning to these ambiguous articles in the constitution.

This ambiguity runs throughout the constitution. It may be deliberate. It may be a question of trying to accommodate as many people as possible, as many views as possible. And therefore we get this looseness, these cracks in the constitution. It depends on who puts their foot first in that crack.

RAY SUAREZ: Laith al-Saud, one of the biggest Sunni complaints during the process was over the parts of the constitution regarding federalism. It says the federal system is made up of the capital, regions and decentralized provinces. The governments of the regions have the right to practice legislative, executive and judicial powers and it specifically sets aside Kurdistan as one of those self-governing regions. Is this a poison pill for the Sunni population?

LAITH AL-SAUD: Well, it is to a great extent but we have to go further than that and understand Iraqi society. Iraqi society is extremely integrated. There's a great deal of inter-marriage between not only the Sunni and Shia Arab population but also between the Kurds and the Arabs. So there's a serious question as to whether federalism as they're talking about it is feasible to begin with. There's a millions Kurds in Baghdad; there are tens of thousands of Sunni in Basra.

I also, if I may, would like to address the issue about the attribution of an Islamic state or the provisions within the constitution which call upon Islamic law and the recognition and respect of Islamic law.

RAY SUAREZ: Briefly, please.

LAITH AL-SAUD: Sure. I have a problem with this demarcation between Islam and democracy. I don't think it's been made clear by any analysts let alone the western legal advisors who went to Iraq what they mean by Islam or what they mean by democracy. Whenever we invoke these and instruct concepts there's always going to be some obscurity.

RAY SUAREZ: We have until Oct. 15 to work it out. Spence Spencer, does this look like a document that's got some chance?

SPENCE SPENCER: It certainly has some chance. I think what depends between now and Oct. 15 is the outreach that is going to be required of all of the members of the Iraqi national assembly. One of the things that the transitional administrative law called for was that the constitution would be drafted in consultation with the Iraqi people. And a lot of the national assembly members that I spoke to were all saying, you know, we missed this chance. We only had two months to draft it. We hopefully can get out into the streets and do something. And that's going to be a real serious challenge for these guys.

RAY SUAREZ: Spence Spencer, guests, thanks a lot.

REND AL-RAHIM FRANCKE: Thank you.

NEWSMAKER

GWEN IFILL: Finally tonight, a newsmaker interview with another key player in the upcoming Supreme Court confirmation hearings. Last week I talked with Senate Judiciary Committee chairman Arlen Specter. This afternoon I sat down with his minority party counterpart, Vermont Democrat Patrick Leahy.

Supreme Court nominee John G. Roberts and Sen. Patrick Leahy were all smiles today. But in the weeks since their first meeting, Leahy, the senior democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee, has become sharply critical of President Bush's first high court nominee, using words like "radical" and "right-wing" to characterize Roberts' writings.

As he prepares for next week's hearings, Leahy has already become caught between two poles within his party the anti-Roberts liberals, and the centrist Democrats who have signaled they could support the president's nominees.

In 31 years in Washington, Leahy has become closely identified with judicial battles.

In 1991, he grilled high court nominee Clarence Thomas about his view of Roe V. Wade."

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: Have you ever, private gatherings, otherwise, stated whether you felt that it was properly decided or not?

CLARENCE THOMAS: Senator, in trying to recall and reflect on that. I don't recollect commenting one way or the other. There were again debates about it in various places but I generally did not participate. I don't remember or recall participating, Senator.

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: So you don't ever recall stating whether you thought it was properly decided or not?

CLARENCE THOMAS: I can't recall saying one way or the other, Senator.

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: Well, with all due respect, Judge, I have some difficulty with your answer that somehow this has been so far removed from your discussions or feelings during the years since it was decided while you were in law school.

GWEN IFILL: Leahy, 65 years old and in his sixth term, is the only Senate Democrat ever elected from Vermont. Like committee chairman Arlen Specter, he served as a state prosecutor before arriving in Washington.

We spoke to him today in the Senate's Russell Caucus Room, where the Roberts hearings are scheduled to begin next week.

Sen. Leahy, welcome.

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: Thank you.

GWEN IFILL: You met today with Judge Roberts. How did that go?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: Well, it was the second meeting we've had, actually the second meeting on this nomination. Obviously we met before when he was up for the court of appeals. I found it a very interesting meeting.

As we all know, he's a very pleasant person, very articulate and obviously very knowledgeable as a lawyer. Three things, of course, those of us who are lawyers find very, you know, very interesting. I enjoyed the discussion with him.

GWEN IFILL: Did you get to ask him any specific questions that you are willing to talk to us about?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: Well, I asked a few questions. They're more of a general nature. I did express my concern that the White House is blocking the release of some of the positions he took as a political appointee in the Solicitor's General Office.

And my disappointment was because those would show not whether he's a good lawyer or not -- we all know he's a good lawyer. We all know that if he has a client that says here are my cases, he'll argue it very well. He could argue for a person or against a person depending upon who his client is.

But in the Solicitor General's Office, that's where they make a determination what position the United States will take and which cases they will take to make a case. Those are the areas I'd like to see.

GWEN IFILL: Did he indicate to you that he might be interested in having those documents released?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: I think he feels constrained by what the White House has said. The White House won't let them -- won't bring them forward.

I'm also concerned about some documents that were lost. It was no fault of his. But, of course, we were supposed to get the documents from the Reagan Library. At the last minute the White House said no, no, no, you can only see them after we see them even though they're going to become part of the public records anyway.

And apparently some that were on affirmative action, the White House looked at them and suddenly they've disappeared. The White House said they gave them back and they would be glad to tell us their analysis of what's in it. Coming from the Ronald Reagan library, I take the Reagan position: Trust but verify. I want to see the original documents.

GWEN IFILL: In the time since you met him on this nomination first on July 20 and today you've said some increasingly tough things about him. If you don't mind I'd like to actually read them to you.

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: Sure.

GWEN IFILL: You said, as you well know, about these papers, "Those papers that we have received paint a picture of John Roberts as an eager and aggressive advocate of policies that are deeply tinged with the ideology of the far right wing of his party then and now. In influential White House and Department of Justice positions, John Roberts expressed views that were among the most radical being offered by a cadre intent on reversing decades of policies on civil rights, voting rights, women's rights, privacy and access to justice." That's tough talk, Senator.

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: It's fairly tough especially we Vermonters tend to say things in somewhat a more quiet way. But I meant it. And I talked about that, I actually talked to him about the -- virtually what you just read.

And I was asking to what extent is John Roberts the twenty-seven-year-old, twenty-eight, twenty-nine, thirty-year-old John Roberts -- eager acolyte in the Reagan administration -- how does that person relate to the Judge Roberts today?

And the reason I asked him that question, I said, my feeling about it anybody who is going to be a federal judge especially a Supreme Court judge, I want to know before I vote for that person, could I feel safe if my case was before them or your case or the person two doors down from here, their case? Would they have a case that would be heard on the merits or would it be predetermined?

Now, some of the writings you saw there gave the impression of somebody who predetermined these things. I want to know that he would sit as a judge with an open mind to make up his mind. Is he going to be a conservative jurist? Sure. I voted for a lot of conservative jurists, but I voted for these jurists on the assumption that they were people who would give you a fair shake and would not predetermine a case.

GWEN IFILL: When you said that he would -- you had concerns about his stand on civil rights, what particularly are you talking about?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: Well, I wanted to understand that he really cares about affirmative action, he cares about equality. I wanted to make sure he understands there's a lot of discrimination in the United States today. We have laws that try to redress that and is he going to be open to the application of those laws?

GWEN IFILL: When you think about the things that you know that he has written and the things you don't know about that the White House has not been willing to release, do you think that someone is trying to hide something from you?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: Well, I worry about the things that suddenly got lost by the White House. Maybe they'll turn up. Maybe they won't. I'm not willing to just accept what they say about them. I want to see what they say.

But I think they do Judge Roberts a disservice by holding things back especially those areas that reflect what his judgment of what the law should be, not just what the law is, but what the law should be.

They do him a disservice because then everybody speculates on what he would say but then at the same time that puts a heavier burden on us, a burden that we should try to carry to ask the questions to find out who he is. I don't think any senator should feel justified in automatically voting for him unless they're satisfied that person is going to reflect all of us.

GWEN IFILL: In previous judicial confirmation battles you have urged the White House to take the advice of the American Bar Association. The American Bar Association has said that Judge Roberts is well qualified. Does that sway your thinking?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: It is part of my thinking. I wish in a way to read all the things that the rest of us did, but no, I think that is. I think conversely if they said he wasn't qualified, then that would hurt him a great deal but I think everybody knows he's a brilliant judge. Everybody knows he's a brilliant lawyer. He's been an extremely gifted advocate before the Supreme Court.

GWEN IFILL: You as the ranking Democrat on this committee are probably the subject of a lot of competing emails, phone calls, pressure, shall we say.

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: I've heard.

GWEN IFILL: Have you heard that? From centrist Democrats, liberal Democrats, interest groups. They all are, I'm sure, zeroing in on you. What kind of pressure are you feeling?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: Well, I'll always talk to any senator who wants. I've done this for over 30 years in the Senate. I'd be glad to talk to any senator who wants to talk about it. I'm not meeting with interest groups from either the right or the left.

GWEN IFILL: Any senators trying to influence your vote?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: No, no. And, interestingly enough, you know, on other issues, senators will come and try -- obviously we got this appropriations bill coming up or an agriculture bill or whatever. Senators, as we should, will go around trying to get other senators to vote with you. No senator has suggested to me how to vote one way or the other.

GWEN IFILL: You and Sen. Specter have a famously cordial relationship. Does preparing for a hearing like this put any pressure or any tension on that?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: No. I mean, we often have times we vote differently. We often have times we take even within the Judiciary Committee different views on things. But we have a great deal of respect for each other and each other's ability. And I think you have that old prosecutors' bond where we can usually work things out.

GWEN IFILL: What should Americans who are watching these hearings next week be listening for?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: They should listen to those senators who actually ask questions. And those who want to just simply give a speech, either for or against Judge Roberts without asking questions, frankly I'd ignore them. I don't care which party they belong to.

Listen to those asking questions and see if those questions give you a view of a justice who could fairly hear your case, no matter who you are in America. Do you feel satisfied this man could hear a case involving me? If you're satisfied with that, then you've got a good justice. If you're not satisfied with that, you have reason for concern.

GWEN IFILL: And what will you be listening for as he answers those questions?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: Basically the same thing. You know, there's only 101 people that get a say in this: The president, of course, most importantly in making the nomination, and then the 100 senators. We have to stand in the shoes of 280 million Americans.

I think some of my fellow senators sometimes don't realize the responsibility that is. It's not a responsibility to jump to an instant conclusion. It's a responsibility to take your time, really pay attention because we're representing all 280 million Americans. And I want to make sure that when I vote -- at this moment I have absolutely no idea how I will vote -- but I want to know when I vote I feel I've carried that responsibility.

GWEN IFILL: In all of the years that you've been following this process and been involved in it, what have you learned from past Supreme Court nomination processes that you would apply to this one?

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: I've learned that it is wise to wait to make up your mind. I look at the both the right and the left cite the case of Robert Bork without appearing as though they were actually at the hearing.

Before the Bork hearing began, I suspect he had a majority if not all of the members of the Judiciary Committee were going to vote for him. Now at that hearing went on and as the answers to his questions came out, some of them were actually rather strange answers, you could see the change within the committee.

And ultimately the committee voted against him. Ultimately the Senate Republicans and Democrats voted against him. But also the American public watching the hearing, you could tell from the calls to the offices to all of us, Republicans and Democrats that public opinion turned very strongly against him.

So the thing is wait until you get in there. Who knew about Anita Hill before the hearing began? Sandra Day O'Connor, when she was nominated there was a lot of concerns expressed by some of the liberal groups that, well, she's a conservative from Arizona, a conservative legislator and all. The vote on her was 99-0. It was a very good vote. Some of these same groups that were critical of her when she was first nominated are now the ones who say, boy, we need another justice just like Sandra Day O'Connor. Keep your powder dry.

GWEN IFILL: Sen. Leahy, thank you.

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: It's good to be with you.

RECAP

GWEN IFILL: Again, the other major developments of the day: Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast. The brunt of it missed New Orleans, but officials reported heavy damage from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle. In Iraq, thousands of Sunni Arabs turned out to protest the new constitution, and accounting firm KPMG admitted to creating illegal tax shelters; it agreed to pay more than $450 million in fines. We'll see you on line, and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Gwen Ifill. Thank you and good night.