The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight: Our summary of the news; the latest from Russia on the school tragedy with analysis; reaction to the Republican convention from a group of voters in Portland, Oregon; Sen. Kerry and President Bush campaigning today; and the analysis of Mark Shields and David Brooks.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: Commandos stormed a school in southern Russia today where militants held hundreds of hostages. Russian news accounts said more than 200 people were killed, more than 700 wounded, many were children. Security officials said they moved in after the militants set off explosions and started shooting. They said some twenty of the hostage-takers were killed, including ten Arabs. The militants had demanded independence for Chechnya. We'll have more on this story right after this News Summary. Hurricane Frances moved through the Bahamas today, losing some of its punch. Top winds dropped to 115 miles an hour, but the storm knocked out power across much of Nassau, and cut telephone links to other islands. In Florida, 2.5 million people were under evacuation orders. The hurricane was headed toward landfall there tomorrow, but it slowed some, and that gave people more time to leave. The U.S. economy created 144,000 new jobs last month. The Labor Department reported that today. The number was a little smaller than expected, but still the most since May. The Department also reported more jobs created in July than first estimated. Overall, the unemployment rate fell 1/10 of a point to 5.4 percent. That was due mostly to people leaving the work force for various reasons. President Bush hailed the jobs report on the morning after he accepted the Republican nomination. He began his day near Scranton, Pennsylvania. He said his policies are repairing the damage done by recession, the 9/11 attacks and corporate scandal.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: Overall we've had about 1.7 million new jobs since August of 03. The unemployment rate is now down to 5.4 percent. (Cheers and applause) That's nearly a full point below the rate last summer and below the average of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

JIM LEHRER: But Democratic nominee John Kerry said there's been a net loss of nearly one million jobs in the last four years. He told a rally in Newark, Ohio, the president hasn't done nearly enough.

SEN. JOHN KERRY: This race for the presidency of the United States is not about words. It's not about last minute promises at a convention that are just laid down some great big boom, here's what we're going to do. For example, they've had four years to do this. They've had four years to make a difference.

JIM LEHRER: Kerry also fired back at Republicans for attacking his fitness to be commander-in- chief. He sharply criticized Vice President Cheney for failing to serve in Vietnam, and he charged the president misled the country into war in Iraq, and is thus "unfit to lead this nation." We'll have more of the Bush and Kerry speeches later in the program. Former President Bill Clinton will undergo heart bypass surgery. His wife, Sen. Hillary Clinton, announced that today during an appearance in Syracuse, New York. She confirmed report that Mr. Clinton had mild chest pains and shortness of breath yesterday. She said the initial tests came back normal.

SEN. HILLAR CLINTON: His doctors asked him to come back early this morning for some additional tests. And as a result of those additional tests at Westchester Medical Center they did advise him to have bypass surgery and to do it soon, as soon as he could.

JIM LEHRER: There was no word on exactly when the operation would take place. Later, President Bush telephoned Mr. Clinton to wish him a speedy recovery. And Sen. Kerry offered his best wishes during a campaign event. The Bush administration announced today Medicare premiums for doctor visits will go up 17 percent next year. That's the largest increase in the program's 40-year history. The new premiums will be $78.20 cents a month. They're updated annually. On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 30 points to close at 10,260. The NASDAQ fell nearly 29 points to close at 1844. For the week, the Dow gained a fraction of a percent. The NASDAQ fell nearly 1 percent. That's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to the Russia attack, how the Republicans played in Portland, President Bush and Sen. Kerry today, and Shields and Brooks.

FOCUS BLOODY ATTACK

JIM LEHRER: The latest on the bloody ending of the school siege in Russia. We begin with this report by Jonathan Miller of Independent Television News. ( Gunfire )

JONATHAN MILLER: 52 hours and 20 minutes after gunmen had first burst into Beslan School, children started bursting out. ( Gunfire ) They were shepherded by Russian special forces towards waiting medics. ( Gunfire ) Some were blood-soaked. All were badly dehydrated, dazed and half-dressed. It had been unbearably hot in the airless gymnasium. There had been wildly varying estimates of just how many hostages there had been: From the low hundreds to over a thousand. At this stage, it still wasn't clear, but they'd just kept on coming, traumatized, but alive. As time went on, those emerging were in worse shape, though. Not all were children. Among the survivors: Teachers, parents. It was chaotic. There weren't enough ambulances. Injured children were manhandled into private cars. For many, just utter bewilderment. There were many stretcher cases. It seems some hostages had been shot, which fitted with reports that the violent end of the siege was triggered by an escape bid by a group of young hostages. So did Russian special forces initiate the assault, or were they reacting to something the hostage-takers did?

It's a critical question given that just hours earlier, President Vladimir Putin had said the safety of the hostages was paramount, and local officials had ruled out the use of force. There's a lot of murk about what happened when, but what is known is that the militants in the school had agreed to let Russian forces retrieve the bodies of some of those killed when the gunmen had first stormed the building. The doctors dispatched to collect the bodies entered the compound. Then this. One young survivor had actually been in the gymnasium and had watched in horror as events unfolded.

YOUNG GIRL ( Translated ): 18 big bombs were hanging right above our heads. One suicide bomber blew herself up, and the other one was pushed by accident.

JONATHAN MILLER: This explains why the gymnasium roof was destroyed and why there were so many burned bodies inside. The reason so much shooting was heard was because it was at this point that special forces decided it was now or never.

VALERY ANDREYEV, Russian Federal Security Service (Translated): I would like to say that we never planned any storming operation. We were planning to continue talks to secure a peaceful release of all the hostages.

JONATHAN MILLER: The way it panned out, it was about as far from peaceful as you get. The battle raged on. Some of the Russian soldiers took casualties. Some of the hostage-takers made a run for it, apparently trying to pass themselves off as hostages. Others remained holed up in the school, where firefights with Russian soldiers continued. When we slowed down these pictures, you can actually make out two of the gunmen inside the building. Tonight, many families in Beslan are suffering the cruelest form of bereavement: The violent deaths of their children. But for the survivors, their mothers and fathers, the overwhelming relief of reunion and the slow and painful coming to terms with an experience of unspeakable horror.

JIM LEHRER: A short while ago Ray Suarez spoke with Paul Quinn- Judge, Moscow bureau chief for Time Magazine.

RAY SUAREZ: Paul Quinn-Judge, welcome. Are Russian soldiers in control of the school site now? Have they found everybody who might still be alive and rounded up anybody there was to arrest?

PAUL QUINN-JUDGE: They're pretty much in control of the school site, though it took them longer than expected, I think. There was still some sort of fighting going on there and a lot of explosions happening still into the early evening. Have they found everybody? Nobody knows. For a start, they don't seem to know how many people were there. They were saying... the police and the paramilitary were saying, during the course of this operation, they were going around the town saying to groups of young men that some of the guerrillas may have broken out and they should look for Islamic looking people in the crowd who changed their clothing. There's been some more shooting and a few explosions tonight, and it's not clear whether this is anything serious or just mopping up... wrapping up a few loose ends.

RAY SUAREZ: Is there any better chronology available on how this all came down, how the gunfight and the raid was triggered?

PAUL QUINN-JUDGE: No. There are two totally divergent theories going on. One is that... the government's version, which is basically that they were prepared to wait for days yet and try to come to a peaceful conclusion. That doesn't quite explain how they began to gather an information blackout on their own... on the state's TV channels last night. It doesn't explain why they brought up two battle tanks on the evening of the 2nd, brought in some of their counterintelligence... counter terror teams and a lot more of what passes for their crack paramilitaries. There's an assumption by many people that they were waiting for a chance to stage an assault, and this was a good one. On the other hand, you have to say that the guerrillas were trying to provoke the Russians into doing something because this time, the guerrillas really did seem like people who were absolutely and fanatically committed to dying for their cause and taking whoever they needed with them.

RAY SUAREZ: You mentioned that the number of hostage takers hasn't yet been determined. Do we know anything else about the guerrillas at this point?

PAUL QUINN-JUDGE: What officials have been saying-- and they were sort of boasting quietly all week that they had pretty good bugs in and around the school and they were listening to most conversations that the guerrillas were having-- say that as a mixed team of Chechens, of Ingush-- who are the neighboring republics of both Chechnya and Northern Ossetia-- and a number of guerrillas from North Ossetia themselves. The chances are that they have contracts with Shamil Basayev and they're perhaps under his control. Basayev is one of the most radicalized and really ruthless and Ismalicized of the Chechen guerrilla leaders. They hadn't been heard of in a group like this previously, but it looks very much as if extensions of those who had done things like the Moscow theater siege, and conceivably people who planned the bombing of the trains a couple weeks ago.

RAY SUAREZ: Wire service reports say Russian officials have alleged that some of the hostage takers are Arabs. Do we know if thats true?

PAUL QUINN-JUDGE: Yeah. That came out this afternoon from the president in North Ossetia. It's strange that throughout the week those officials were talking as if they had some detailed knowledge at least of the ethnic composition of the guerrillas, but they hadn't mentioned that. It's a new assertion. Perhaps they discovered someone, or perhaps they feel it's an important political propaganda point to make, because the Kremlin does consistently stress that their war in Chechnya-- and I think in the future they'll be saying the war in the north caucuses-- is part of the overall war against Islamic terrorism.

RAY SUAREZ: Paul Quinn-Judge from Time, thanks for joining us.

PAUL QUINN-JUDGE: Thank you.

JIM LEHRER: Margaret Warner has more.

MARGARET WARNER: Joining me now are Glen Howard, president of the Jamestown Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank; he's also executive director for the American Committee for Peace in Chechnya. And Yo'av Karny, a senior fellow at the US Institute for Peace. An independent journalist, he's author of "Highlanders," a book about the Caucasus. Welcome to you both.

Since the details of what happened today are so very murky, including this, let's get back and try to give people some context for understanding this.

Glen Howard, beginning with you, you heard the description from the Russians about who was in the building. What do you make of the makeup of the group, at least as described by the Russians?

GLEN HOWARD: I think first of all based upon what we've heard is it's definitely not entirely a Chechen composition as many were speculating that it was largely a Chechen group. What we've heard from Paul Quinn-Judge is that the group was ethnically varied, including some reports say there were Russians and theres Alsatians and people from the north caucuses.

MARGARET WARNER: So these are all different regions of the north caucuses?

GLEN HOWARD: That's correct.

MARGARET WARNER: And what do they want, Yo'av Karny? Is it Chechen independence or something more?

YOAV KARNY: Well, its really, this is an ultimate proof of how the independence movement of Chechnya has degenerated in the past 15 years or so. They began in 1990, demanding sovereignty and were fighting genuinely for Soviet self determination for a little while. But ever since the first round of the war with the Russians in the mid 1990s, there had been a steady deterioration towards goals that went far beyond the original ones.

MARGARET WARNER: What led to that, I mean, why?

YOAV KARNY: Well, that's a good question. I imagine the enormity of suffering during the first war, the destruction, the dislocation all made it possible for the Chechen population to be radicalized and fall under the influence of foreign Islamic missionaries, ones that used to be referred to as Wahabys, now more popularly as al-Qaida. And they sort of hijacked the cause of Chechen independence and shifted it elsewhere.

MARGARET WARNER: Do you see it that way, that this that what we all thought of in the early 90s as the Chechen independence movement or separatist movement has become broader and part of a worldwide Islamic movement?

GLEN HOWARD: I would disagree. I believe that the independence movement in Chechnya is there's always been these allegations spread by the Russians that there's a large number of Arabs there's in Chechnya, and at best it's always been a small number of people that are in -- and the war has gone on for five years and been cut off from the outside world, 100,000 Russian troops occupied Chechnya. There's no revolving door between the Middle East and Chechnya, certainly not now.

MARGARET WARNER: Though quite a few Chechens have certainly been arrested or killed in both Afghanistan and Pakistan?

GLEN HOWARD: Well, the reports about Afghanistan are very much can be questioned or debated because there's really no hard evidence about Chechens in Afghanistan. But the real question is about the radicalization of what we call the Chechen resistance movement. And that's more as the brutal side of this war has gone on it's created increasingly people who are very desperate and anxious to use any means possible to advance their cause.

MARGARET WARNER: Yo'av Karny, go back then to what they thought they really could accomplish here, and again the details are murky. President Putin's office, one advisor said a couple days ago that they had a demand for Chechen independence and also for the release of some Ingush rebels that have been arrested. But, I mean, is there, did they really think, do you think, that this kind of a hostage taking would lead to that?

YOAV KARNY: To begin with, I think that it's highly improbable that the people involved in this kind of operation are really genuinely interested in Chechnya independence. Chechnya came close to having independence in the late 1990s and it is through the lack of discipline and the continued destabilization of these elements within the Chechen society that Chechnya lost their opportunity.

MARGARET WARNER: You mean because the Russians went back in?

YOAV KARNY: Yes, indeed. And they served Chechnya on a silver platter to Russian generals who were bent on revenge, and they served themselves on a silver platter to Vladimir Putin, who was seeking a cause that would establish him as the leading contender for the presidency at that time. But I think that we are really entering a twilight zone, we are reaching a sort of intellectual wall of incomprehension. We really cannot divine their intentions. Do they really think that through the seizure of school and the abuse of hundreds of young children they could advance a cause? I think we are really falling back to a state of mind that was characteristic of European politics in the late 19th, early 20th century of pure anarchism and Nihilism intended to shake the foundations of society. I can't see any way of rationalizing this.

MARGARET WARNER: And why would they attack in North Osettia?

GLEN HOWARD: I think that the purpose of North Osettia is first of all that that region has been led by, if it true that was being led by Ingush was designed to further undermine a part of the north caucuses. North Ossetians have been sympathetic to Moscow, but there's also a Muslim element of the population there.

MARGARET WARNER: But it is mostly Christian, is that right?

GLEN HOWARD: Correct, yes.

MARGARET WARNER: So what, is to show they can strike in the heartland of Russia?

GLEN HOWARD: That's right. To strike anywhere and as evidence has shown with the counseling of two airliners in one week and a Moscow metro bombing, suicide bombing that occurred and now this event that was going to be a protracted hostage, theres the Chechens or whoever was behind it was trying to bringing the whole issue of Chechnya's withdrawal of Russian troops full circle, is trying to bring this to the point where to force Putin to make up his mind and do something about ending the war in Chechnya. That is my impression.

MARGARET WARNER: So you still think that there is a political objective here?

GLEN HOWARD: Absolutely.

MARGARET WARNER: A negotiated settlement of some sort.

GLEN HOWARD: It's very similar to what happened in 1995 with the raid of Budennovsk that led to negotiations that started negotiations ending the first war and I think the side that was behind this, there's never an effort to be a replay of that.

MARGARET WARNER: Glen Howard just pointed out and we know, there have been all these other incident, including of course the bombing of those two airplanes, are these Chechen rebels and their fellow travelers, Mr. Karny, able to pretty much operate with impunity, I mean, is Russian law enforcement and the military powerless here?

YOAV KARNY: Well, you know, the Russians can not possibly control the mountainous terrain -- beyond their control for about 80 years -- and throughout most of the 19th century. It's not all that difficult to throw mayhem in a country that vast. But I think that to the extent that the Chechens have a political way of thinking, and perhaps I shouldn't say the Chechens, those individual Chechens involved in this, they are making sure, unlike the events in the mid 90s, that Russian public opinion was really gathered on this around the government. In assuming that this war, hateful and unpopular and bloody as it is, is inevitable, has to be fought to the bitter end because in the Chechen enemies you fine people who are removed from the realm of rationality. But perhaps we should talk a little about the context, which is extensive human rights violations in Chechnya by calculation of the human rights organization in Moscow, they are as extensive as they were in the Stalin era, 44 disappearances for every 1,000 Chechens -- through massive abuse, rape, imprisonment, disappearances, abductions and so on. People do reach a level of despair that could really render them vulnerable to ideas coming from the likes of al-Qaida.

MARGARET WARNER: And irrational in our terms, essentially.

YOAV KARNY: Indeed.

MARGARET WARNER: So very briefly, from the two of you, do you think, and you're a believer in getting to a negotiated solution, do you think that today's incident makes that more likely, particularly in its impact on the Russian public and President Putin, or less likely?

GLEN HOWARD: I think it creates some likelihood that it's more movement in that direction. When I was in Moscow two weeks ago a former Kremlin official told me that he believes that if they wanted to, they could get political negotiations, he could find President Maskhadov, who is the last democratically elected president of Chechnya, and leading the resistance, that he could find him in two days and start negotiations.

MARGARET WARNER: What do you mean find him in two days?

GLEN HOWARD: Hes up in the mountains leading the resistance movement. So there is a possibility at least some former Kremlin officials think that there is a possibility of a negotiated settlement and still believe in it.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. We have to leave there it, but more later. Thank you both.

JIM LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight: an Oregon audience for the Republicans, Bush and Kerry campaign speeches on this day after, and Shields and Brooks.

FOCUS HOW IT PLAYED

JIM LEHRER: How the convention in New York played to a group of likely voters in Portland, Oregon. The NewsHour invited them to watch, and Spencer Michels collected their impressions last night after President Bush's speech.

SPENCER MICHELS: Thank you all very much for being with us at Oregon Public Broadcasting.

Dave Montgomery, let me start with you. You're a pilot, you've been in the military, you're registered as a Republican, but you've been undecided. Did this convention, anything you hear, help make up your mind?

DAVID MONTGOMERY: Not really. So far, I see it as kind of a pep rally and I think when they wrap themselves in the flag, I guess I go along with that a little bit, but then afterward I step back and realize that they're doing the pep rally thing.

SPENCER MICHELS: Rosie Fertig, did you get inspired by what you heard? You're a part of the Republican base. Were you energized?

ROSIE FERTIG: I was very energized. I watched the convention all four days and I thought all the speakers, all the information that they're giving out, they're excellent. All the speakers were very-- they hit the point home of national defense, tax reform, and social you know, health care. I got a lot out of it. You know, everybody gets little pieces out of it.

BRYAN MORRIS: Theyre not talking about the issues that really matter to people, like the loss of good paying jobs in this country as theyre being exported overseas.

SPENCER MICHELS: You lost a job in this area.

BRYAN MORRIS: I lost an entire long-term career to overseas outsourcing and I was unemployed for a year- and-a-half. And now I'm retraining at a community college to go into a skilled trade. It's the only way I could afford to make a living, and I'm not sure I'm going to be able to do that.

SPENCER MICHELS: Mary Powell, you voted for Nader in the last election, but you were born and raised a Republican. What about now, what did you hear at the convention that was interesting? Did you decide who to vote for?

MARY POWELL: No. ( Laughter ) I wish. However, I would say, going into the Republican Convention, I was definitely leaning a lot further toward Kerry than I am now. And so the convention has brought me more towards the middle.

SPENCER MICHELS: Derek Ewell, who registered as an independent --

DEREK EWELL: Yes.

SPENCER MICHELS: What did you hear from the Republicans that might persuade you one way or the other?

DEREK EWELL: Well, what I heard, and I watched a lot of it, and I recorded I think most of it, to me it was "rah, rah, rah" rhetoric. I don't trust their party. I look at, you know, historically, to me they... they were not for civil rights, they were not for women's rights, they're still in that same boat. They're insiders. They exclude people. I'm always...

SPENCER MICHELS: They didn't say any of those things.

DEREK EWELL: Oh, no, but that's what I think when I hear them saying all this stuff. I don't believe 'em. And to me, as an independent, it's not just, you know, the Democrats, the Republicans. I wish there was someone else to look at.

SPENCER MICHELS: Piper Sweeney, you're a farmer, you're a staunch Republican. What did you get out of this convention? Was it just a cheering match?

PIPER SWEENEY: You know, I don't agree with everything, but I... and I don't really think the convention is to persuade anyone, really, to vote Republican. I think it's really to energize the Republican Party.

SPENCER MICHELS: What about the fact that the Republicans put forth, at least on one night, several very moderate Republicans. Do you, do you identify with those people or are they too moderate for the party that you're in?

PIPER SWEENEY: Yeah, they're more moderate than I am. I'm more conservative. I believe the things that President Bush said at the end talking about family, talking about the rights of the unborn, and those are, those are issues that are close to my heart and important to me. So, I'm not a real moderate Republican.

SPENCER MICHELS: Bertha Ferran, you're a staunch Democrat. At this point you're going to vote for Kerry. Did you... how did you react to this convention?

BERTHA FERRAN: The convention seems like it's something that is planned, like a show for, you know, just to kind of... directed to some folks. And they don't give the real image of what the Republican Party does once it has been in power. They have not talked about what the issues are, you know, which are health care, the economy, jobs, home ownership and affordability, you know, for people.

SPENCER MICHELS: President Bush did talk about almost every one of those issues and said things were pretty good.

BERTHA FERRAN: He does not talk about the large deficit that we have and being in the mortgage business, I know what a deficit can do to interest rates down the road, and I fear for that. I have seen homeownerships in the emerging and minority communities go down.

SPENCER MICHELS: Bob Fox, we haven't heard from you yet. You are undecided but registered as a Republican. Did you like what you heard at this convention?

BOB FOX: It was pretty much what I expected to hear. It is a pep rally for the most part. I was hoping that he would touch a little bit more on stuff that concerns me. He did mention stuff about homeland security. I personally think we're going about it wrong. Health care he touched on a little bit, but he didn't give me any answers. I will go in and the last day I will vote with a clean conscience that I have either picked the lesser or two evils or the best man for the job.

SPENCER MICHELS: At this point do you think there's something good about either one of those men?

BOB FOX: Oh, I like things about both of them. I once told one of my friends that Bush is, in my mind, a pretty good commander-in-chief, but I don't know that I'd want him in the field with me. Unlike the veteran swift boaters, I think I'd rather have Kerry watching my back than Bush.

ROSIE FERTIG: He might decide to watch your back and then change his mind

SPENCER MICHELS: Rosie, but you think that this flip-flop issue is a genuine issue?

ROSIE FERTIG: I think it is. I think I can't trust him. He says one thing and he does something else.

BRYAN MORRIS: You know, Kerry voted for $87 billion, and then voted against it; they try to make it seem like he's a flip flopper or is not supporting the troops. Kerry voted for 87 billion when there was a pay to pay for it. He didn't vote for the bill for $87 billion that was just going to increase the deficit with no way to pay for it.

SPENCER MICHELS: The issue of George Bush as commander in chief as protector of this nation came up time and time again at this convention. How did you react to that?

DAVID MONTGOMERY: For me that's probably the number one issue, if you don't have security of the nation all the other fun stuff that we're talking about doesn't happen. My personal take on it, is someone could be deployed with the military, probably in about six months, is that you can't put it all in one boat and that's what they did. They glossed over it. I think some of the stuff was supportable and some isn't. And he puts the 9/11 stuff in with Iraq, with Afghanistan, with everything all at once, and I think you can be a little bit more intelligent about it and divide that out.

PIPER SWEENEY: I think for him to go to Iraq was not popular. I think he took the road that he knew could cost him a reelection. I think terrorist, and especially a country supporting a terrorist, has to really consider do they want to go down like Saddam went. And he did go down and, you know, he's done.

SPENCER MICHELS: I'm wondering your reaction to that, but also wondering, the whole idea of the use of 9/11 in this convention.

ROSIE FERTIG: I didn't think they overused it. You know, Bryan mentioned that the first few speakers, McCain was one of their first keynote speakers and he didn't, he did not dis Kerry at all. But you have Arnold Schwarzenegger who really spoke from the heart. He spoke about his own experience coming over to America. It was very moving.

STEVEN SIMON: Let's get back to the 9/11 issue, the fact that they were in New York, and a lot of people mentioned 9/11.

GUEST: The Republicans wrap themselves in 9/11, and use Iraq, Afghanistan, Saddam, Taliban, al-Qaida interchangeably. Just kind of makes me sick.

MARY POWELL: I feel honestly, Bush was awesome during 9/11. He really was. And. I think that legitimately he can stand up and say: This is a moment when I shined. As the convention goes that it's legitimate for Bush to tout his performance during 9/11 and his leadership during 9/11.

SPENCER MICHELS: Bertha, what do you think about that? Was it legitimate use of the issue?

BERTHA FERRAN: Well, I don't believe that that's the right thing to do. I think that, you know, that was something that was... I mean, 9/11 and the rallying of everybody around America was, you know, great. But there's more compelling issues now that need to be decided.

PIPER SWEENEY: The same people who said how in the world could we have let this happen are the same people that say, well, we need to move on to the other issues. And the deal is we need our military. All the other issues are secondary because if we can't defend this country, there are no jobs.

SPENCER MICHELS: What else, major issues, that you wanted to hear about, that you either heard a lot about or that you didn't hear enough about, anything else?

GUEST: I was hoping to hear them... I hear the Republicans a lot say the economy is good, we're safer, and then that's it. I mean, they can say it, but it doesn't make it so. Why do they think that the economy is doing better when everybody knows that the economy let's talk about why you think we're safer, because I don't particularly feel safer.

SPENCER MICHELS: Did anybody change his or her mind about anything from watching this convention or the Democratic Convention? Anybody?

GUESTS: No.

SPENCER MICHELS: Nobody. Thank you all very much for being here.

FOCUS CAMPAIGN SNAPSHOTS

JIM LEHRER: Two conventions down, two presidential candidates on the road today. Kwame Holman reports. ( Applause )

KWAME HOLMAN: This campaign day began early for John Kerry, just after midnight as the Republican National Convention drew to a close. A large crowd had gathered in Springfield, in the battleground state of Ohio, and running mate John Edwards went on the offensive.

SEN. JOHN KERRY: If you believe that this country is going in the right direction and if you believe that you're doing better than you were four years ago, then you go vote for George Bush. But if you believe...but if you believe as John and I do that we're headed in the wrong direction and that we can do better and that we can do better for the lives of Americans, then we ask you to join us in this effort to change the direction of our country.

KWAME HOLMAN: President Bush had an early call himself, heading directly from his New York convention speech to another battleground state, Pennsylvania, and the town of Moosic. The president touted today's report of an increase in the number of new jobs created last month.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: I believe the role of government is not to try to create wealth but an environment in which the entrepreneur, the small business, the farmer and the rancher can survive. I believe in the spirit and innovative power of the American worker, and that is why we unleashed the energy of our economy with the largest tax relief in decades. (Applause) Because we acted, our economy is growing again. Because we acted, we've overcome recession, scandal, stock market decline, and a terrorist attack. This morning, we received jobs report for August, and it shows that our economy is strong and getting stronger. We added 144,000 new jobs. (Applause) Our growing economy is spreading prosperity and opportunity, and nothing will hold us back. (Applause)

KWAME HOLMAN: Moving on to the Ohio town of Newark, John Kerry saw those same figures differently.

SEN. JOHN KERRY: What they've done is take America backwards. What theyve done is make it harder for the average American family to get ahead. You've seen just today the latest job numbers have come out for the last month, 144,000 jobs. At that rate, you won't have a net -- new job created in the stout of Ohio until 2011. John Edwards and I have a plan to put America back to work now, not ten years from now. (Applause)

KWAME HOLMAN: President Bush's second stop was near Milwaukee, Wisconsin. He repeated a theme from last night's speech-- defending his decision on Iraq.

PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH: In Saddam Hussein, we saw a threat. So I went to the United States Congress. They looked at the same intelligence I did, remembered the same history of Saddam and they saw a threat. My opponent looked at the very same intelligence, and when asked to vote on a resolution that authorized the use of force, he voted, "aye." The last choice of the commander-in-chief is to put troops in harm's way. So I felt it was important to try diplomacy. I went to the United Nations. The United Nations looked at the same intelligence and the United Nations Security Council resolved, unanimously resolved that Saddam Hussein must disclose, disarm, or face serious consequences.

KWAME HOLMAN: Meanwhile, John Kerry continued to strike back against those, including the Bush campaign, who have criticized him for his actions during and after the Vietnam War.

SEN. JOHN KERRY: But the first lie detector test ever given in Ohio was given in 1933 right here in Newark. And it's very obvious that it's lucky for my opponent that his convention was held in New York and not here. (Cheers and applause)

Vice President Cheney suggested that I was unfit for office and unfit to be commander in chief. Well, let me... I'll let you and the American people decide whether five deferments makes you more unfit than two tours of duty in the military. I'll let them decide that. (Cheers and applause) But I'll tell you what does make you unfit to lead this nation. I think misleading your nation into war makes you unfit to lead this nation. (Cheers and applause)

KWAME HOLMAN: With 60 days to the election, and most polls having shown the race a dead heat, President Bush is looking for a bounce after this week's convention.

FOCUS SHIELDS & BROOKS

JIM LEHRER: Finally tonight, the analysis of Shields and Brooks, syndicated columnist Mark Shields and New York Times columnist David Brooks. Welcome to you both. I've missed you both terribly.

DAVID BROOKS: It's been a long 12 hours.

JIM LEHRER: Its been a long 12 hours, right.

The campaign for president of the United States, where does it rest tonight, Mark, in your opinion?

MARK SHIELDS: I think there's no question that there has been movement from Kerry to Bush. Bush has not surged. There is a poll, there's one poll taken before the president's speech last night, but I think that it's fair to say --.

JIM LEHRER: The Time Magazine poll that just, in fact, has come out today?

MARK SHIELDS: That's right. If you look at the campaign, week by week, I think it's fair to say that George Bush won most of the weeks in August and he is in a stronger position than he was a month ago, and if the Kerry -- the Shields third rule of politics is you can't sit on a lead if you don't have a lead. And I think the Kerry campaign --.

JIM LEHRER: You might want to write that down, David.

DAVID BROOKS: Yeah.

MARK SHIELDS: I think the Kerry campaign may have been shaken by the change in the numbers --

JIM LEHRER: But you see -- you feel movement, there's a Time poll, but -- Andy Kohut spoke about this also last night.

MARK SHIELDS: Yeah. What I see is where George Bush, when people are asked how you feel about these two candidates on different issues, the economy, the leadership, whatever, where the president had been stronger, he's now stronger than he was. Where John Kerry enjoyed an advantage, for example an economy that cares more about people like me, or in health care, his lead is less than it was. So it isn't that the president has faulted vaulted to a 10/12-point lead in the match-up. It's just that internally he is in better shape and I think therefore his campaign is in better shape and it has a better chance.

JIM LEHRER: Polls and otherwise, how do you feel about it right now?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, I basically agree with Mark that Time Poll has him at an 11 point lead, which is incredible, it would be astounding --

JIM LEHRER: Yeah. Its 52 to 41.

DAVID BROOKS: Even so to jump out to 11 just is incredible but a five or six point lead in this climate is a huge lead, because it has been so stable. I think a couple things have happened from these two conventions, one Bush, remember for really two years after 9/11 he had approvals in the 60s and 70s. I think over that period time a lot of people made some sort of emotional connection with the guy, he lost it during this horrible year of Abu Ghraib and stuff like that and I think through this political process they've seen that. And so a number of those people have re-remembered why they like George Bush over those two-year period.

And then the other thing is the doubts about Kerry. There's no question that he left himself open with two holes in his convention, his Senate career and then this whole this flip-flop issue. And so the Bush administration did use it in their convention very effectively to fill those two holes.

JIM LEHRER: How do you feel about the convention and particularly the president's speech, how many hours later this is?

DAVID BROOKS: I guess my comments at the heat of the moment were incredibly sagacious and forward looking.

JIM LEHRER: You said it was wonderful.

DAVID BROOKS: I still think that. I think there were alot of lines were well delivered, that was beautifully written. And I like the part that people are complaining about, which is the boring monkey part. I really do think that, you know, when -- he talked about all these ideas, a lot of them are small ideas, but they really do amount to a new approach to government and more positive approach than we're used to from Republicans and then he sketched out, albeit in vague terms, some really big ideas, talking about transforming our pension system, transforming health care, transforming the tax code and that really you know, that could be big. The oddity of the Bush administration all along has been bold on foreign policy, unimaginative and orthodox on domestic policy. But war changes things. It enlarges the scope of people's thinking, we usually in times of war have periods of reform and I think Bush is sort of catching up.

JIM LEHRER: How do you feel about the speech in light of today?

MARK SHIELDS: I don't feel any better about it, Jim, I think that the theme was things have never been worse but I'm the only guy that can get us out of the mess we're in, which I thought was interesting because an interesting message for the president. He tried to present himself as both the agent of change and the agent of continuity. And that's an interesting, you know, parlay to do. I did go today and did do some reporting actually on the president's initiatives, and the increases in the president right now we're looking at the new fiscal year begins Sept. 30, that's the fiscal year that we'll be dealing with for this presidential election. The president has asked for increases in job training as he spoke of last night, for the next fiscal year. But over the next four years, his administration and his budget calls for cuts of $1.7 billion in job training. In other words he's going to increase it just for this year, the same thing in elementary and secondary education, he's increasing it by $834 million, but he will cut it by five and a half billion over the next four years. Those are the administration's own budget documents for 2006 through 2009 --

JIM LEHRER: What does it say?

MARK SHIELDS: What it says is he made promises he can't keep. The president got the biggest cheer in the hall when he said Im going to make permanent the tax cuts. He didn't address the deficits anyway. And he said we're going to cut this runaway federal spending. When he calls for an increase in federal spending for this election year, then he's going to meet his cuts over the next these are his own budget documents, David.

DAVID BROOKS: I'm confused how that could be because, the overall spending is on each of these departments is going up either 8, 10, 12 percent.. I don't know what programs, how that can --

MARK SHIELDS: It's, by law, you're required and administration did put it on its website that it did have to share it with congressional budget committees that by law you have to give not simply your proposal for the first fiscal year, but you have to give them for 2006 through 2009, and that's to meet the budget caps the president and the White House has laid down, each of these departments has to cut these programs by this much.

JIM LEHRER: Can I get the two of you to agree to disagree on that?

MARK SHIELDS: Sure.

JIM LEHRER: We saw Kerry fighting back, taking on particularly Vice President Cheney. What do you think, is that going to work for him, what's your reaction to that, David?

DAVID BROOKS: It may -- I don't think the repetition of the five deferments is going to work, I don't think that's anissue that's particularly going to work for him mostly because I think most people have heard it all before, they've seen Cheney in office leading war. Its really one of the most interesting charges he laid out and he really didn't come out swinging in the past 24 hours. He talked about the president misleading us into war. And that's a case that a lot of people can make, I don't think it's a case John Kerry can make because he voted for that resolution and he said a couple weeks ago that he'd vote for it again even knowing what we know now. So Mark and I have talked about this in the past. I think the fact that he's still for the war, still for the resolution just girdles him where he talks about these issues, its going to make this aggressive stance really a lot harder.

JIM LEHRER: And you all made the point the other night you agreed on this -- that not only does it girdle him, it girdles the Democratic Party to really take on the president on the war, right?

MARK SHIELDS: Jim, John Kerry has to face a tough choice; he's going to be accused of being a flip-flopper, but to make the case against George Bush on this war, and to back up the charge that he was misled

JIM LEHRER: Which today he made for the first time.

MARK SHIELDS: -- made for the first time --.

JIM LEHRER: But he used the word --

MARK SHIELDS: That's right. For him to do that, it's going to require standing up there and making that case that, look, what I have heard against it, you better believe it. Doesn't make any difference how you vote it, 70 United States senators would have voted against if we knew there was weapons of mass destruction, no connection with al-Qaida, there was no connection to 9/11, of course we wouldnt have, and the American people would have been against it as well. To make that case --

JIM LEHRER: Can he do that>

MARK SHIELDS: To make that case it opens himself up to the charge that he's a flip- flopper.

JIM LEHRER: Hes done it again; hes done it again.

MARK SHIELDS: George Bush baited him boldly on that question, on, in New Hampshire on the 6th of August, he said Mr. Kerry owes him an answer -- would you still have voted for it, and Kerry came back with this procedural answer three days later in Grand Canyon, you recall, great visual, terrible place for an answer, in which he said, yes, I would have given the president that authority.

JIM LEHRER: Do you think its too late?

DAVID BROOKS: I think the flip-flop charge is the essential charge against him and anything he does to increase that just sinks him. I do think, you know, I talked about the holes in the Democratic Convention, the big hole in the Republican Convention was the year 2002 and 2003. They talk about 2001. But they really did leave two holes open. And if the Democrats were in a position to find, you know, all the stuff that's happened post or in the occupation period, and they could lay out a case of one misjudgment after another, as they would see it, that's a pretty good issue for them, but, again, I come back to this thing, I just don't think he can flip-flop on that any more.

MARK SHIELDS: Brain washed. Almost --.

JIM LEHRER: This has (all talking) about George Romney

MARK SHIELDS: George Romney father of Mitt Romney

JIM LEHRER: Spoke the other night at the Republican Convention.

MARK SHIELDS: Thats right. Kerry better study the playbook on that, because there almost has to be a I was misled. To say I was misled and not to sound like a dupe or not to sound like a weak leader is a problem.

JIM LEHRER: Politics of the job reports today, the 144,000new jobs, unemployment rate down a tenth of a percent. What do you think?

DAVID BROOKS: I basically dont think it changes the rate. If it had been 25,000 new jobs it would have been good for the Kerry campaign. I don't think this which comes in about at expectations, a pretty decent number, really changes the dynamic of the campaign.

JIM LEHRER: What do you think?

MARK SHIELDS: I think David is right. The late Bob Teeter, the late Bob Teeter, who was George Bush Is campaign chairman, the great Republican pollster, used to insist that it takes a full quarter, three months for economic perceptions to change, for people to think things are changing for the better or the worse. Democrats answer of course today, as that the president is boasting over 1.7 million jobs, every one of Bill Clinton's eight years they could produce more than 1.7 million jobs. But I dont think it has a great political -- if it had been a downer it would have taken a lot of the wind out of the sails of the president.

JIM LEHRER: And then of course there's the awful thing in Russia.

DAVID BROOKS: I think that's a big thing actually. I think psychologically it just reminds you of terrorism. I mean, who could sit in a school full of children for days and days and get killed.

JIM LEHRER: Seeing the pictures we ran earlier

DAVID BROOKS: Yeah. I think that has an emotional effect on the country, reminds us of terrorism; Im not sure which way it cuts. Im not sure it matters, but it affects the mood of the country.

MARK SHIELDS: Its just its unbelievable, I mean, it's almost like you want to believe in original sin, there's original sin, how somebody can do that.

JIM LEHRER: You got it. Thank you both very much. Get a good weekend's rest.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the major developments of the day as we were just discussing: Commandos stormed a school in southern Russia where militants held hundreds of hostages. Russian reports said more than 200 people were killed including many children. Hurricane Frances moved through the Hurricane Frances moved through the Bahamas, and continued toward landfall tomorrow, in Florida. And as we were also just discussing, the U.S. economy created 144,000 new jobs in August. The unemployment rate dropped to 5.4 percent. And there was word. And there was word former President Bill Clinton will undergo heart bypass surgery.

JIM LEHRER: And once again, to our honor roll of American service personnel killed in Iraq. We add them as their deaths are made official and photographs become available. Here, in silence, are 13 more.

JIM LEHRER: We'll see you online, and again here Monday evening, have a nice weekend. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.