The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

RAY SUAREZ: Good evening. I'm Ray Suarez. Jim Lehrer is on vacation. On the NewsHour tonight: Our summary of the news; then, what Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld had to say on his surprise visit to Iraq; Ukrainians prepare to vote a second time; a report on Florida residents coming back from last fall's vicious hurricane season; the long- running vote count for governor in Washington State; and the weekly political analysis of Shields and Brooks.

NEWS SUMMARY

RAY SUAREZ: Defense Secretary Rumsfeld paid a surprise Christmas Eve visit to U.S. troops in Iraq today. His 12-hour tour began in Mosul, where 18 Americans died in a suicide attack on Tuesday. He urged soldiers not to despair even when things look bleak. He said there's no doubt a stable, democratic Iraq is achievable. Later, outside Fallujah, he told U.S. Marines they're doing "noble work." He also stopped in Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's hometown. And in Baghdad, he warned against underestimating the guerrillas. He said: "I don't want in any way to paint a picture that is pretty." We'll have excerpts of Rumsfeld's remarks right after the News Summary. A truck bomb exploded in western Baghdad late today. The U.S. Military said one person was killed and nineteen were wounded. No American troops were involved. Police said a fuel truck had been wired with explosives and parked near the Libyan and Moroccan embassies. The target of the attack was unclear. More of Fallujah's displaced residents returned home today, braving sporadic fighting. About 4,000 people entered the devastated city to check their property. U.S. and Iraqi soldiers manned checkpoints to keep insurgents from trying to return. A U.S. Army spokesman explained how it works.

MAJ. HACKETT, U.S. Army: What we are doing here today is we're making sure that all of the citizens who live in Fallujah have their ID card so that they can reenter the city and go and look at their house, assess the damage and do whatever they need to do in their particular neighborhood.

RAY SUAREZ: About 900 people entered the city yesterday, despite fierce clashes between gunmen and U.S. Marines. Three Marines died in the fighting. And a posting today on an Islamist web site said 24 insurgents were killed. Secretary of State Powell reportedly advised President Bush last month to put more troops on the job in Iraq. An account in today's Washington Post said Powell called for more U.S., Iraqi and British troops. He spoke during a White House visit by British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Nov. 12. That same day, Powell submitted his resignation. This month, the U.S. Military increased American forces in Iraq by 12,000. President Bush sent his Christmas greetings to U.S. troops. He placed ten telephone calls from Camp David, Maryland, to members of the military, six of them in Iraq. A spokesman said the president called to thank them for their service and sacrifice, and to wish them all happy holidays. Celebrations began around the world on this Christmas Eve. In Baghdad, Iraqi Christians decorated trees and attended mass. They voiced hope for peace and security to take hold. In Bethlehem, hundreds of pilgrims gathered in the traditional birthplace of Jesus. The crowds were somewhat larger than in recent years. An Israeli liaison official said it was a sign of improved cooperation.

LT. COL. AVIV FEIGEL: The municipality of Bethlehem is well coordinated with us in this operation, and we are expecting something like above 5,000 visitors during those two days.

RAY SUAREZ: Israel also allowed interim Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas to attend the festivities. The Israelis had barred Yasser Arafat from the celebrations in recent years. Elsewhere, thousands were expected in St. Peter's Square to celebrate Midnight Mass and hear the pope's Christmas message. The nation's midsection began to dig out today after a record winter storm. The Christmas cold wave swept across the country yesterday, dropping more than 20 inches of snow. Five-foot drifts piled high in some places, and Interstate 64 remained closed in southern Indiana today. The weather also backed up air traffic and left people stranded at airports in Cincinnati and other cities. Republicans in Washington State showed no sign of giving up the governor's race today. Democrat Christine Gregoire won the final recount yesterday by just 130 votes. Republican leader Dino Rossi had led after the first two counts. Republicans said they would press counties to reconsider some rejected ballots and possibly go to court. We'll have more on this story later in the program. In Ukraine today, the opposition presidential candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, warned the government to prevent any violence in Sunday's run-off election. He faces Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich. The opposition said government loyalists might descend on the capital, Kiev, if Yushchenko wins. The country's Supreme Court ordered the new vote because of fraud in the initial run-off last month. We'll have more on this story later in the program. Islamic militants made a strong showing in Palestinian municipal elections, based on results out today. The voting took place yesterday in West Bank towns. The Associated Press reported Hamas took control of nine town councils. The ruling Fatah movement won 14. That indicates a slide in Fatah's support ahead of the presidential election next month. That's it for the News Summary tonight. Now, it's on to: Rumsfeld in Iraq; campaigning in the Ukraine; still cleaning up in Florida; counting in Washington State; and Shields and Brooks.

FOCUS - CHRISTMAS VISIT

RAY SUAREZ: First tonight, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld's Christmas Eve trip to Iraq. It came amid several weeks of renewed criticism of his handling of the war and its aftermath there. His day started with a short speech to U.S. troops in Mosul, followed by some questions.

SPOKESMAN: This is my third tour over here and we've done some amazing things. It seems like the enemy's web sites and everything else, all over the media, necessity love it. But the everything we do good, whether it's helping a little kid or building a new school, the public affairs sends out the message that the media doesn't pick up on. How do we win the media war?

DONALD RUMSFELD: That does not sound like a question planted by the press. (Laughter) That happens sometimes. It's one of the hardest things we do in our country. We have freedom of the press. We believe in that. We believe that democracy can take that massive misinformation and differing of views and that free people can synthesize all that and find their way to right decisions. Out here, it's particularly tough. Everything we do here is harder because of television stations like al-Jazeera and Al-Arabia and the constant negative approach. You don't hear about the schools that are open and hospitals and clinics are open and the fact that the stock market is open and the Iraqi currency is steady and the fact that there have been something like 140,000 refugees coming from other countries back into this country; they're voting with their feet because they believe this is a country of the future. You don't read about that. You read about every single negative thing that anyone can find to report. So, it is, I guess what's news has to be bad news to get on the press. And the truth is, however, it gets through eventually. There are people in the United States who understand what's really going on over here. They do understand that the thousands of acts of kindness and compassion and support that are taking place all across this country, they do understand that large portions of this country are relatively peaceful. We are a great country and we can benefit from having a free press, and from time to time people will be concerned about it. But in the last analysis, look where we've come as a country because we have had a free press and we've... I mean I've got a great deal of confidence in the center of gravity of the American people. What hurts most is in the region where the neighboring countries whose help we need, are constantly being barraged with truly vicious inaccuracies about what's taking place in this country. And its conscious, it's consist tent, it's persistent, and it makes everything we are trying to do in neighboring countries where we are looking for support vastly more difficult.

RAY SUAREZ: Secretary Rumsfeld then flew by helicopter down the Tigress River to Saddam Hussein's hometown of Tikrit where he spoke to soldiers of the army's First Infantry Division.

DONALD RUMSFELD: I first simply want to say that the reason I'm here is to have a chance to look you in the eye. I hope I have a chance to shake your hands and tell you how much I appreciate what you do for our country, how much your country appreciates what you do; that what you are doing is enormously important. It is important to this country to be sure, but it is important to this region, and it's important to the world. The task is to help to organize and train and equip Iraqis so that they can provide for is their own security. It's to create an environment so that progress can be made here as it is being made. They've gone from the Iraqi governing council to the interim Iraqi government to be coming up next month, to be followed by a constitution. And there again people are saying it won't happen; that the elections have to be delayed. Well, the elections do not have to be delayed. The elections go forward. And the people here do have an opportunity. And if one looks at the polls, it's clear the Iraqi people want to vote. They want to participate in helping to guide and direct this country. I think that it has to be hard for you to be away from your families, particularly at the holiday time. But I see enough families at Walter Reed and Bethesda to be able to say to you that they are strong, they're proud of you, and I know you know that from your communications with them. People have a desire to be free, not to be ruled, but to participate in guiding and directing the course of their countries. And we are on the side of freedom. And you are on the side of freedom. And that's the side to be on. So God bless each of you. God bless your families. And God bless our wonderful country. And Merry, Merry Christmas. Thank you. ( Applause )

RAY SUAREZ: After Tikrit, Rumsfeld visited Marines outside the volatile city of Fallujah and then traveled to Baghdad, where he met with more U.S. Troops. He also spoke with Iraq's interim president, Ghazi al- Yawar, who echoed Rumsfeld's optimism for democracy in Iraq.

FOCUS - POWER STRUGGLE

RAY SUAREZ: Ukraine's upcoming election. We begin our coverage with some background.

RAY SUAREZ: Sunday, Ukraine's voters will get yet another chance to choose their next president. A first-round election in October led to a runoff in November between two candidates: Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich and opposition leader Viktor Yuschenko. But even before the polls closed, there were complaints of voting problems. When Ukraine's election commission declared Yanukovich the winner, Yuschenko's supporters took to the streets. Hundreds of thousands wearing the party's trademark orange demonstrated in Kiev's Independence Square and set up tent cities in that capital city. The West protested, too, in diplomatic fashion. Secretary of State Colin Powell called the results illegitimate and European Union officials flew to Moscow to mediate a solution. Ukraine's parliament denounced the results and the Supreme Court threw them out, citing massive voter fraud; judges ordered a December rematch. Along with fraud came charges of attempted murder. When Yuschenko began his campaign a year ago, he looked like this. For the last few months, his face has been marked by boils and cysts, and he suffers from severe back pain. Tests at a Vienna hospital confirmed Yushchenko has 6,000 times the normal level of dioxin in his body. He says his political rivals poisoned him; the government denies any involvement. Despite his illness, the opposition leader is out on the campaign trail. At a rally in Independence Square, he promised his government would be a fair one.

VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO (Translated): A new government will be formed comprising many political powers. The criteria of selection of the new government will be honesty, professionalism and patriotism. Only honest officials have a place in the new government. There will be no place in it for falsifiers, corrupt officials and separatists.

RAY SUAREZ: For his part, Yanukovich now says he wants clear and transparent elections, and he said the demonstrators didn't represent all of Ukraine.

VIKTOR YANUKOVICH (Translated): You have to bear in mind that all these demonstration at Independent Square is not the whole of Ukraine. I am convinced that the path of rallies or demonstrations leads nowhere.

RAY SUAREZ: This bitter campaign has split the former Soviet republic, whose population tops 47 million. Yanukovich draws strong support from the industrial East, which has close ties to Russia, while Ukraine's West backs Yushchenko, a reformer who wants to move closer to the European union. On Monday, the rivals met in their first debate and exchanged harsh words.

SPOKESMAN ( Translated ): One reason why we are here today is because the results of the Nov. 21 elections were stolen. More than three million votes were stolen by my opponent and his team.

SPOKESMAN ( Translated ): I can tell you plainly, Viktor Andreyevych, if you think that you can win and become the president of Ukraine, you are making a big mistake. If you win, you may become the president of only part of Ukraine.

RAY SUAREZ: Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who supported Yanukovich in the first run-off and congratulated him on his victory, said yesterday he could work with Yushchenko.

PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN (Translated): I'm personally acquainted with Mr. Yushchenko from his tenure as chairman of the Ukrainian cabinet. We had dealings with each other and we had normal, business-like relations. We're always ready to receive any leader entrusted to Moscow by the Ukrainian people.

RAY SUAREZ: More than 37 million Ukrainian voters are expected to go to the polls Sunday.

RAY SUAREZ: For more on the significance of this election, we get two views. Bruce Jackson was a Defense Department official during the administrations of Ronald Reagan and the first President Bush. Now he's president of the Project on Transitional Democracies, an organization seeking to promote democratic reform in Europe. And Anders Asland directs the Russian and Eurasian Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He has served as an economic adviser to the governments of both Ukraine and Russia. Guests, the world doesn't normally hold its breath for Ukrainian elections. Why this time? What is at stake for both Ukrainians and the wider world?

BRUCE JACKSON: Well, this is the largest democratic change we've really seen since the fall of the Berlin Wall some 15 years ago. Remember, we are talking about 50 million people here or almost 50 million people that are make a change in their strategic direction, whether they want to remain a part of sort of the Russian sphere of influence or basically become a normal common European democracy. This is also a new kind of thing. Up to now we have been looking really at post-communist states such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, who have had a democratic tradition. Georgia is a post-Soviet phase, part of the Soviet Union, and it's a different kind of thing. The democratic revolution is finally, you know, taking part in the former Soviet space. This, coupled with the Georgian Revolution of last year, the so- called Rose Revolution, together they signal a fundamental new step in where the frontiers of democracy are.

RAY SUAREZ: Anders Asland, do Ukrainians think that's what they're doing, choosing between their Soviet pasts and a more western future?

ANDERS ASLUND: Definitely. You can say that this is formulated as a European choice. And if you look up on the slogan, it's "Yushchenko, our president." That is democracy. And the other slogan is freedom. "You don't stop our freedom." These are essentially the two slogans. It says nothing about socialism, nothing about economics. It's freedom and democracy and a turn to Europe that matters in these elections.

RAY SUAREZ: Just today, Viktor Yushchenko said publicly that he charged the government with making sure there would be no violence during the vote on Sunday. Is that just pre-polling day posturing, or is there a real chance that there could be violence?

ANDERS ASLUND: Well, there have been statements now by former security officers within the opposition that certain violence attempts are being prepared in the East of the country. And it's clear that President Kuchma and some of the leaders on the Yanukovich side have an interest in the destabilization. So Yushchenko all along has been extremely cautious that everything should be peaceful. And if you look up on this massive demonstration we have seen in Ukraine, not one person has been injured, not one person has been arrested for drinking.

RAY SUAREZ: Russian President Putin, Bruce Jackson, was right out there after the last vote, immediately endorsing and welcoming the winning of Viktor Yanukovich, criticizing any attempt to revisit the vote. But he's cooled it in recent days, hasn't he?

BRUCE JACKSON: I think the nicest thing we can say about Moscow's policy is when something is inevitable, Mr. Putin decides it's desirable. He came to this position quite reluctantly, and, frankly, as late as this week, German Chancellor Schroeder was talking in a very serious manner to Mr. Putin to basically have him embrace an electoral outcome, a democratic outcome, and it was not in his interests as he proceeds with his relationship with both Europe and the United States for him to be taking this managed view of Ukraine, that this was Russian space, that he would pick the candidate and successor to Kuchma. The amount of money the Russians poured into this campaign is really truly extraordinary. And the estimates range between $300 million and $600 million. Putin had quite a lot at stake in this coming out a different way, actually, in a fraudulent manner, and he is basically backing out of it reasonably gracefully.

RAY SUAREZ: Do you see it the same way, Anders? This week, the Russian president said, "No, no, we're not meddling. It's West that is meddling in Ukraine." Has he taken a different line as we've moved from October to November to December with the Ukrainian election?

ANDERS ASLUND: Yeah, I think he's facing up to the inevitable. It looks now like Yushchenko really will win, and Yushchenko has not antagonized Russia in any public way throughout the campaign. He has been extremely cautious on that point. Even in his election program, you can see that he writes about the importance of having a good relationship with Russia, and he has avoided going into any debate with Russians while the Russian media, which are under state control, have just hammered on Yushchenko in all kinds of ways. Yushchenko has refused to respond on this.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Bruce Jackson just talked about President Putin making a virtue out of accepting the inevitable. Is Viktor Yushchenko also doing the same thing? Are the Russian and Ukrainian economies so intertwined? Are the relations so close that he really can't act like rush as not there and sort of push himself away?

ANDERS ASLUND: Yeah, absolutely. And Yushchenko's recognized that from the beginning. So of course the person looks strange. President Putin twice in Ukraine to campaign for Prime Minister Yanukovich, and on top of that, congratulate Yanukovich twice before the official results were out, so it is about time for President Putin to face the obvious. But at the same time, he went, in his press conference the other day, on a sharp attack of president of Poland, who has played a very constructive role in the Ukrainian drama.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, not only the president of Poland, but the foreign secretary of the EU and the secretary of state of the United States have all had something to say about this. Is Vladimir Putin, at least from where he looks at it, is he right that the west is meddling?

BRUCE JACKSON: Well, the West has clearly not been meddling and Russia is accusing the West of its own sins. The United States, just the name of a country I know, they only put $13.4 million into the election campaign, but only into the election monitors, never into any of the parties. The democracy funds that they had were essentially normal and they went mostly to civic society groups and not to parties. All of what the United States did was open to all the parties in Ukraine. And, frankly, the United States went so far as to provide a breakout of their spending to the Russians and asked them if they would disclose their same spending, which, of course, they refused. But the salient part of this, this has really been a European-led initiative. The president of Lithuania, the president of Poland, Javier Solana from the European Union, and now, most recently, Gerhardt Schroeder of Germany-- these have been the international mediators, because this is very much a European decision. What Yushchenko has talked about is that the future of Ukraine will be a market economy, membership in the World Trade Organization and ultimately membership in the European Union. That is fundamentally incompatible with the economic and governance version expressed by Mr. Putin, which is a managed, state-controlled economy and basically a competitive zone of the commonwealth of independent states as basically a balance to the European Union. So this is very much a European dialogue with Russia.

RAY SUAREZ: Let me get a very quick read from both of you on whether you feel this is over if there's a clear winner Sunday, or whether the losers take to the streets.

ANDERS ASLUND: We don't know if it is over. If Yanukovich loses, as we all assume, there is a slight danger of some military development, but I don't believe it.

BRUCE JACKSON: Yanukovich will try to exaggerate the disenfranchisement of the East to suggest that they're not part of the unified Ukraine. I think that will fail. Nevertheless, Yushchenko, as he governs, will have a long time to basically manage the problem of Russia. That problem is not over for Ukraine.

RAY SUAREZ: Gentlemen, thank you both.

ANDERS ASLUND: Thank you.

FOCUS - AFTER THE STORMS

RAY SUAREZ: Still to come: Hurricane recovery, the Washington State recount, and analysis from Shields and Brooks. Betty Ann Bowser has our hurricane story.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: From the air, the blue tarps tell the story. More than three months after an unprecedented series of four dangerous hurricanes struck Florida, hundreds of thousands of homes still have only a sheet of plastic to protect them from the elements. Losses totaled more than $42 billion. One in five homes was damaged. A record 1.5 million people filed claims with their insurance companies. More than a million also sought help from FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency. So many people were left homeless that FEMA had to set up the largest direct housing program in its history, a program that continues today.

BRAD GAIR: Currently, we have 12,000 families in mobile homes and travel trailers, and when you think about it, three-to-four people per family. We've essentially built a city for 50,000 people stretched across the entire state, and we're the managers of that.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: On this block alone in Vero Beach, FEMA set up travel trailers for four families whose houses were declared uninhabitable by the county. This central eastern part of Florida took a one-two punch, with Hurricanes Frances and Jeanne coming ashore in less than three weeks.

SPOKESMAN: We can go down and check the measurements and make sure we allowed for enough.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Not only did the federal government have an unprecedented response, so did insurance companies. Judson McKnight is a catastrophe claims adjustor for State Farm Insurance Company. His company alone has had more than 350,000 claims. Most of those properties have been inspected by an adjustor, but now new problems have developed.

JUDSTON McKNIGHT: The price is constantly updating due to supply and demand issues, both materials and labor. So, typically, an estimate that we've written someone in late September immediately after the storms, those prices are no longer valid in today's market place.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: That's created a real problem for homeowners.

SPOKESMAN: What do we have to do today?

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Nate McCollum is the emergency management coordinator for Indian River County.

NATHAN McCOLLUM: Insurance companies are recognizing here's what should be paid and then telling everyone, "we'll give you the money later on for the actual cost if it is truly $10,000 instead of $5,000." While this may sound confusing, it's very real to the people because they have to put up the extra money until the insurance company reimburses them, and most people are not prepared to do that.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Prices for repairs and construction havedoubled in some cases. There are also shortages of roofers, contractors, shingles, fencing and drywall. And Vero Beach homeowner Marilyn Gagnon thinks it could be a year before her life gets back to normal.

MARILYN GAGNON: It's horrible. It's horrible. You just don't know what it's like until you've done it. I've been dealing with FEMA, I've been dealing with the Small Business Administration, my insurance companies, roofers. I've tried aluminum companies. There's a shortage of aluminum. I may not get my front porch back. They're talking seven months for an estimate.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Some contractors and roofers say even with the demand they're not making more money. Vero Beach roofer Angelo Arcure had to recruit these workers from Georgia to get jobs done. He has three times the amount of business since the hurricanes, but says higher prices are hurting him.

ANGELO ARCURE: Everything's going up. Insurance went up, liability insurance. The worker's comp went up and the shingles have gone up at least 8-$10. We might make $5,000 on a job now where we would only make $3,000 before, but we're still only making $1,000 profit on it, you know what I mean, because of all the price increases.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: But the biggest financial burden thousands of Floridians have suffered are large and sometimes multiple insurance deductibles.

NATHAN McCOLLUM: In Florida a few years ago, the state legislature allowed insurance companies to allow up to a 2 percent of the value of that policy as a deductible. So if you have a home that's worth $100,000, your deductible may be $2,000 or $3,000, depending on what your policy says.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: And in the case of Vero Beach area residents with two hurricanes hitting within three weeks of each other, that meant many residents had two deductibles, one for each event. The Florida legislature last week provided major financial relief for homeowners facing multiple insurance deductibles, but there's been little relief for the local economy, which has suffered. And the citrus industry was dealt the strongest blow. Half of all the grapefruit worldwide comes from Indian River County, the area that surrounds Vero Beach. The two hurricanes have Florida's citrus growers reeling. 63 percent of the grapefruit and 27 percent of the orange crops were lost.

SPOKESMAN: Normally, these trees would be full of fruit. If you see in here, there's nothing. These have not been picked; they're untouched.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: George Hamner, Jr., is a third generation grower and packer. He says normally after a hurricane, citrus trees go through a growth spurt. After Frances, they did. But the second hurricane, Jeanne, killed most of that new growth, so Hamner and other growers don't know what to expect.

GEORGE HAMNER, JR.: We're not seeing a lot of that new growth now. Also, we're going into the winter time when the trees go dormant, and we don't normally see new growth now anyway. So it's a little uncertain as we come out of the winter months as to whether the spring, with the warmer weather, will go ahead and we'll have a big, you know... the tree's energy will allow it to grow more and have new growth and bloom.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: The winter tourist season starts in less than a month. But the only major resort that is up and running is the Vero Beach Disney resort which reopened in November. Disney vice president Jim Lewis says the resort recovered quickly because it was built to survive.

JIM LEWIS: We build to codes that are higher than what the state requires. This particular property was made to withstand wind speeds in excess of 100 miles per hour, and so we're very fortunate from that regard.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Less fortunate are people like Vero Beach homeowner Nancy Small. This is the first time in 37 years she won't be in her house for Christmas. She's trying to get into the Christmas spirit by decorating her temporary home, a tiny travel trailer. But it's hard.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: What kind of a Christmas is this going to be for you?

NANCY SMALL: Sad. Different. It's just different. You don't know where you're going from here.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Is that the hard part? Just the uncertainty because of not knowing what's going to happen?

NANCY SMALL: Yeah, and if I'm doing the right thing? Redoing? Or you don't know what to do?

BETTY ANN BOWSER: So many decisions and nobody to help you make them.

NANCY SMALL: Yeah. It's hard, but we'll survive.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: Single parent Eagle Tousey and his four children are also trying to get into the Christmas spirit. Tousey is disabled with arthritis. He's trying to save every penny so that when the FEMA trailer is no longer there, he will be able to afford housing for himself and his kids. So this year, he won't be able to be Santa.

EAGLE TOUSEY: That's a rough thing, you know. I've always provided for them and got for them and there won't be nothing from daddy. You know, later on in the year, yes, maybe we'll be able to get something, but absolutely nothing right now.

GIRL: It's sad because we used to have our good Christmas, Christmases all the time, but, you know, since the hurricanes, it's kind of weird.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: What's it going to be like having no presents for Christmas this year?

BOY: We have each other.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: You have each other. Does that mean a lot?

BOY: Yes.

BETTY ANN BOWSER: All over the state, people like the Touseys are trying to recover. But the big question now is how fast? The new hurricane season starts in June.

FOCUS - VOTE BY VOTE

RAY SUAREZ: Now, who's the next governor of Washington State? Lee Hochberg of Oregon Public Broadcasting begins our report on the counting and recounting in a most unusual race.

SPOKESMAN: Okay, on hand recount two, ballot A, motion is to count this vote for Christine Gregoire. All in favor, aye.

SPOKESMAN: Aye.

LEE HOCHBERG: When the latest recount finished yesterday, Democrat Christine Gregoire emerged as the apparent winner. Out of 2.9 million ballots cast, Gregoire received 130 more than Republican Dino Rossi. Soon afterwards, a beaming Gregoire told supporters that one of the closest races in state history, fought over for the last 51 days, had finally come to an end.

CHRISTINE GREGOIRE: It is time for this election to be over. It is time for us to move forward.

LEE HOCHBERG: But Dino Rossi and his Republican supporters are not giving up, especially after a race where the Republican had led until just yesterday. Washington State Republican chairman Chris Vance.

CHRIS VANCE: You counted three times, got two different winners and three different results. No one trusts this at this point. No one trusts the results at this point.

LEE HOCHBERG: Rossi, a real estate agent and former state senator, won the original election day count by 261 votes and a subsequent machine recount by 42 votes. Democrats then paid for a hand recount, which put Gregoire, a three-term attorney general, up ten votes. That lead widened to 130 after a state Supreme Court decision on Wednesday allowed 732 ballots to be reconsidered in King County, a Democratic stronghold that includes Seattle. Those ballotshad been disqualified because of an error by state election officials who mishandled the coordination of matching signatures with voter records. Republicans have now asked county auditors statewide to reconsider other ballots that might have been rejected for the same reason on Election Day.

CHRIS VANCE: If they can do it in heavily- Democratic King County, they have to be able to do it in Republican counties in this state. Our objective now is to spend the next few days before final certification, trying to make Dino Rossi votes count in other counties. If we are unsuccessful to do that and win the election that way, then we'll start looking at an election contest procedure.

LEE HOCHBERG: As of now, it is unclear whether any auditors will comply with the Republicans' request. Some have said their canvassing boards would at least meet with Republican leaders, but most had already decided not to reevaluate ballots they believe were properly rejected. Gregoire has not officially declared victory, but she is urging her rival to accept the results and move on.

CHRISTINE GREGOIRE: At some point, the election is over. And it's over when the auditors of each of counties certify the result. And they've all done that. So the election is over. To now go out and say "we're going to find more votes" will cause chaos.

LEE HOCHBERG: But Republican Party Chairman Vance says after all this controversy, chaos will ensue if the current vote count is allowed to stand.

CHRIS VANCE: I think if she is sworn in based on this result, believe me, there's going to be several more weeks of rancor and acrimony go on here, if she eventually becomes governor, I don't think anybody but the most partisan Democrats in this state are going to accept that.

LEE HOCHBERG: Washington's secretary of state is scheduled to certify the election next Thursday. Republicans have asked that it be postponed to allow further reconsideration of other counties' rejected ballots.

RAY SUAREZ: And Jeffrey Brown takes it from there.

JEFFREY BROWN: And to help shed some light on this bizarre political story, I'm joined by Joel Connolly, a columnist with the Seattle Post-Intelligencer.

Joel, you wrote in your column yesterday that the deadlock of democracy isn't pretty. So tell us, what has it been like to watch all of this unfold?

JOEL CONNELLY: It has been kind of like an accordion watching the lead expand and then the lead shrink and finally the tables reversed at the last minute in favor of Christine Gregoire. There has been a great deal of partisan rancor. The he has added to the rancor by questioning the integrity of the King County officials or at least their ability. This has gone on and on and on. Remember the election was the first Tuesday in November. We used to talk about our turkey of an electoral system in our state where you could not decide elections before thanksgiving. This one has gone on all the way to Christmas, may actually go on past the feast of the epiphany in early January and we may ultimately have three wise men in the form of a panel in the form of a circuit court of appeals judges ruling on it.

JEFFREY BROWN: Some of this, I gather is because of the unusual election system you have there where the majority of voters actually vote by mail.

JOEL CONNELLY: About 70 percent vote by mail. The ballots only need to be postmarked by Election Day. They don't need to be in by Election Day. So thousands of them come flowing into county elections offices for days after the election is over. In the case of King County where the controversy is focused here, they've had something like, handled something like 900,000 ballots with the great majority of them coming in by mail and many thousands of them coming in long after Election Day.

JEFFREY BROWN: Now we heard the Republican county... the Republican chairman there talk about what he is planning to do next. What is the likely scenario, what are the prospects, what are the avenues open to them?

JOEL CONNELLY: This has been a battle in which the high ground has been fought over as intensely as Little Round Top at Gettysburg. The Democrats have it now in terms of having a lead, having all 39 counties having certified their results. For the Republicans, the strategy becomes one two of things. Create chaos in order to conquer; namely, try to reopen county votes, try to challenge the results of the election; perhaps even take it to federal court. Or act like the noble aggrieved party, accept the results and so on and assume that their troops will be mad and that they will turn out for Dino Rossi for another office in the next election. That decision is yet to be made. The troops at the moment are extremely angry. The political right in this country has never managed to win with grace. Based on what I was listening to on talk radio coming down here to be on this program, they certainly aren't losing with grace.

JEFFREY BROWN: Either way, it is going to be very close obviously. So have you a very divided state.

JOEL CONNELLY: We have red state, blue state differences within our state, namely in very conservative parts of it, eastern Washington voting up to 70 percent for Mr. Rossi. King County by contrast giving the majority to Ms. Gregoire by 150,000 votes. Productive parts of our political culture, the conservative Democrats, the modern urban environmentalist pro-civil rights Republicans are even more endangered as a species as the spotted owl out here.

JEFFREY BROWN: Now Inauguration Day is scheduled for Jan. 12. Knowing what you do of your fellow citizens out there, do you see a way for people to come together?

JOEL CONNELLY: They certainly haven't in recent elections. We've had a more and more polarized situation. We may not even have the gubernatorial race resolved in which the outgoing governor, Gary Loft, will have to commute back and forth 56 miles to his office from his new home in Seattle; but at the same time, this is part of what is happening in the country as a whole, namely non-stop electioneering, non-stop confrontation and losers both on the left and on the right and unable to accept the famous maxim of Chicago, Richard Daly, he lost because he didn't get enough votes.

JEFFREY BROWN: Joel Connolly, thanks very much and Merry Christmas to you and everyone there.

JOEL CONNELLY: Merry Christmas to you.

FOCUS - SHIELDS & BROOKS

RAY SUAREZ: Now to the analysis of Shields and Brooks. This week, they are with Terence Smith.

TERENCE SMITH: That's syndicated columnist Mark Shields and New York Times columnist David Brooks. Gentlemen, welcome. It's been sort of a rough week in Iraq. It began with the president acknowledging on Monday in his news conference that the insurgents are having an impact, that this is going to be a long haul. There was that horrific explosion in Mosul that caused such a loss of life and now, reports that Secretary of State Powell has been privately and behind the scenes urging more troops be sent to Iraq. What do we make of this, Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, taken in reverse order, Terry, I think Gen. Powell, Colin Powell, makes a valid victory from the department of state has to confront the reality that the Powell doctrine, which he developed, has been repealed by the Bush/Rumsfeld policies. The doctrine very simply stated that in order for the United States to go to war, it had to be a last resort to go to war. Second, that there had to be a real threat, an identifiable threat, a genuine threat to our national security from the target that we are going after. Third, that we had to use totally disproportionate overwhelming force to achieve our objective. And finally, that there had to be popular support, strong popular support for the mission itself and a defined exit strategy. It's fair to say that in Iraq that every one of those are missing. The popular support, which is now gone; it was there tentatively at the beginning. And I think that you can feel that the president's own sort of confidence and optimism about Iraq in that press conference was tempered by the reality. We've seen contractors leave this week. We saw more casualties last month in Iraq of Americans than there were in the first six months of the war: The invasion, the occupation, and the war itself. More deaths and more Americans killed last month than any month. So it's a war that is not going well.

TERENCE SMITH: It's a difficult time, David.

DAVID BROOKS: Well, it is a difficult time. It's a war. We saw this week what the war is about in the killing on the street of the election workers. We see 80 percent of the country enthusiastic about elections, working hard, risking their lives every day for elections. And we see a small group but powerful group of insurgents that want to defeat that. So we know what the war is about. But the progress of the war has been very difficult. And I think it's the most symptomatically difficult in the road between downtown Baghdad and the airport, that U.S. forces have not even been able to get control of that road between the international airport and downtown. And so, the former CIA analyst writing this week, calls it a war of the roads. You've got to get control of the roads. This is something you've got to do with U.S. Forces. And it takes a lot of people to do it, but it's doable, because you just can't have not only American troops-- because Americans, frankly, the high level delegations are helicoptering over those roads, driving in convoys-- but regular Iraqis driving through those roads getting blown up or getting robbed. So getting control of the roads is a task, and it's a task that's so important that, you know... we are in the middle of this war and we could lose it in six months. You know, you go to war, sometimes you don't always win. And that's all in play.

TERENCE SMITH: And you're describing a security situation, as we speak, only five weeks prior to what are supposed to be national elections. I mean, that's a task.

MARK SHIELDS: David is right, but Terry, one of the great disappointments, one of the tragedies of this war is that each time there is supposed to be a significant, seminal, defining event in this war... it was when Saddam was going to be captured. And we captured Saddam, and then the violence increased. And then it was when sovereignty was turned over last June to the Iraqi people. Then, when the interim government was established, and then when their own security forces... now, it's the elections, and now the president is saying, "well, don't expect it." So is Secretary Powell. So is Secretary Rumsfeld. That the violence will not abate after that. So there is a sense of... there's a light and people are starting to question if there is a tunnel.

DAVID BROOKS: I just don't... I'm not quite sure I agree with that. You are never going to have one event where suddenly the insurgents go home. They are Saddamists. Some of them are Zarqawiists. They're al-Qaida people. That's who did, probably, the Mosul thing. They are not going away. The hope is that you transfer sovereignty, you have elections, you have election after election after election, as we've seen in insurgency wars elsewhere. And the people like elections, and so the insurgency loses some support and gradually you defeat them. That's the only hook that you are going to have. But what... I mean, people in the Arab press have made the argument of what's positive which is happening, which is some Arab commentators said, "You know, we've had three elections in the middle east. One in American-controlled Afghanistan. We are about to have one in Israeli-occupied Palestine, and we're about to have one in American-occupied Iraq." So the Arab was saying, "what's the problem here that the only place we are having elections in this region is where Americans or Israelis are involved?" And there are lots of things stirring across the Middle East in this respect that that's benefit out of all this cost that we see around.

TERENCE SMITH: Mark, we saw some clips before of Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld's quick visit to the war zone and his remarks. Is that trip for the troops' morale or for his?

MARK SHIELDS: I think it's for the secretary's own morale more than anything. I mean, I just certainly don't doubt that he has an interest in the troops, that he has certainly gone to some lengths and efforts this week to emphasize, but he's under siege. He's become the visible symbol of those disaffected with this policy. And I just add, not to berate or to continue, but, I mean, this is a war that each time the rationale part has changed. I mean, first, it was because they had weapons of mass destruction. Then it was because, "well, gee, Saddam was a bad guy and aren't we better off without him?" Now, "we can't abandon the mission." And I think that it makes it difficult for Rumsfeld. He's trying to... this is sort of his sensitivity counteroffensive this week, "that I do care." Message to troops, message to nation: "I do care." It's reminiscent of the first President Bush's 1992 reelection campaign.

TERENCE SMITH: What do you make of it, David?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, his tone as changed a little. He's sort of soft and cuddly, and if Donald Rumsfeld is going to go cuddly, then who needs him, you know? (Laughs) I want Rumsfeld to be tough and manly. No, he is under siege. But, you know, there has been a lot of rallying behind him. My colleague Bill Kristol and four members of the Senate asked for his ouster. I'm sort of struck by how many Republicans who secretly don't really like him are rallying behind him. I don't know if the White House told them to or what. But there has been a sort of rallying. So I would say he is not going to be leaving soon.

TERENCE SMITH: Speaking of the White House, they announced that the president is going to nominate for a second time a group of some 20 candidates for federal judgeships that were turned away by the last Congress. We have a little confrontation looming here, Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: I think a little confrontation. Drop it in just in the Christmas weekend. There's sort of a message. This is the fruits of victory. They're going to play hard ball. They nominated 210... they had 210, I think, confirmed-- lowest vacancy rate in 15 years in the federal judiciary, but there were seven that were filibustered. And the president's brought them back. I mean, a couple of them, including William Hanes-- who was a Department of Defense general counsel, Terry I mean, this was a man who did a memo prior to the war saying the president was exempt from torture, anti- torture laws. I think that's a hearing that I'm not sure the administration wants to have vented and ventilated right now.

TERENCE SMITH: Are we going to see filibusters again?

DAVID BROOKS: We could. I think the administration's point of view is we had a battle over these judges in the election. We won. We are going to, as Mark says, reap the fruits of victory. And it's going to be a lot easier to pass these and overcome a filibuster with 55 Republican senators, which there are now, as opposed to 51.

TERENCE SMITH: Still, they have to get to 60.

DAVID BROOKS: But then, you know, there's this... there's a sign of what hard ball the administration is playing, they are talking very seriously about this so-called nuclear option. This would be the Supreme Court saying we are really making it almost impossible to have a filibuster. When they first started floating this idea, which really would short circuit the way we've been doing these nomination or the confirmations, I thought they were just bluffing or trying to scare people. But everyone I talked to over there said they're serious. They might want to change the rules. And that really would be... that would change the climate even from the depths that it's in right now.

TERENCE SMITH: Sounds like a rehearsal for a Supreme Court battle to come.

MARK SHIELDS: Yeah, I think it does. And I think you can see in the reaction to the White House announcement on re-submitting the 20 judges, Arlen Specter, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee who just recently basically bartered his soul and self-respect to keep the chairmanship, said he didn't think it was a very good idea at this point. But his committee has just been added to it this week. On the Republican side, Coburn, the new senator from Oklahoma, and Sam Brownback, conservative senator from Kansas; so they're going to make absolutely sure, the leadership is, that Arlen Specter is not going to be deciding force in that committee.

TERENCE SMITH: All right. We're out of time, but Merry Christmas, happy holidays to you both. We'll see you next week.

RECAP

RAY SUAREZ: Again, the major developments of this day: Defense Secretary Rumsfeld paid a surprise Christmas Eve visit to U.S. troops in Iraq. And Christmas celebrations began around the world on this Christmas Eve. Thousands of people attended midnight mass at St. Peter's basilica and Pope John Paul II said the world needs divine guidance like never before. A reminder now that Washington Week can be seen on most PBS stations later this evening. We'll see you online and again here Monday evening. Have a great weekend everyone and a joyous Christmas. I'm Ray Suarez. Thanks for watching; good night.