The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

Intro ROBERT MacNEIL: Good evening. Leading the news this Friday, Cuban prisoners were expected to release their hostages in Louisiana but the plan stalled. In Beirut two French hostages were released by their Shiite Muslim captors. Two Americans were among 16 whites massacred at a Christian mission in Zimbabwe. We'll have details in our News Summary in a moment. Judy Woodruff is in Washington tonight. Judy? JUDY WOODRUFF: After the News Summary, the Cuban prison story is again our lead focus. A Cuban American activist talks about the continuing standoff in Atlanta. Then, on the first big shopping day of the Christmas season we look at what fallout the stock market crash is expected to have on consumer confidence. Three experts, including a Nobel prize winning economist, join us. Next an update on organ transplants and new federal rules aimed at making them more available. And finally, essayist Penny Stallings salutes the ageless king of Rock 'N Roll, Chuck Berry.News Summary WOODRUFF: There was still no solution to the two Cuban prison takeovers today despite high hopes early in the afternoon that a resolution of the Louisiana standoff was imminent. At one point an agreement at the Oakdale Federal Facility was rumored to be ready for signing but as the afternoon wore on, it became clear that negotiators had hit a snag. Cuban inmates could be seen milling around outside the detention center while talks continued inside. Earlier this morning, one prison counselor who was a hostage was stabbed by an inmate considered mentally disturbed. Other inmates moved in to restrain the attacker and to prevent the violence from spreading. In Atlanta, meanwhile, negotiations progressed more slowly. A group of prominent Cuban Americans, including the mayor of Miami, traveled to the federal facility today to offer their assistance. Last night the more than 1,100 Cuban inmates inside turned down a plan that would have involved releasing 50 of the 94 hostages still being held there. A justice department spokesman on the scene told reporters today that one of the chief hang ups in Atlanta is the inability of the inmates to decide on one set of leaders. JUSTICE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN: The state of negotiations is, I think you could say, rather flat. The prison administration would hope that the detainees can soon pull things together as far as their negotiating posture is concerned. It's very frustrating to have come as close as we did yesterday toting the hostages out and then have it, you know, be stalled. It's the old problem. There's no one who speaks for the detainees. WOODRUFF: In Washington, the head of the Federal Bureau of Prisons Michael Quinlan, was a little more optimistic, characterizing the situation in both facilities. MICHAEL QUINLAN, Federal Bureau of :Prisons I'm not able to comment on the substance of the negotiations. We are very close at Oakdale to a resolution. I think we have general acceptance on all the substantive issues. There are some issues that continue to be discussed. I think that within a very short period of time, hopefully even later today, we can have a full resolution of the problem at Oakdale. WOODRUFF: Quinlan spoke at the Justice Department. We'll have more of his comments in a few moments. Robin? MacNEIL: In Beirut, two French hostages were released by their Shiite Muslim kidnappers in return for what they called positive gestures by the French government. Jean Louis Normandard, a television engineer, and Roger Oak, a freelance journalist, were dropped from separate cars near a hotel in west Beirut. Their release was promised yesterday in a message from the pro Iranian Revolutionary Justice Organization. Normandard had been a captive since March 1986, Oak since last January. Their release leaves 20 foreigners, including eight Americans, missing after being kidnapped. The longest held is Terry Anderson of the Associated Press who was abducted in March 1985. WOODRUFF: In Haiti the death toll this week has risen to 21 as a result of violence in connection with the upcoming election due to take place on Sunday. It would be the first free presidential and legislative election in Haiti in 30 years. Eight people lost their lives in yesterday's violence alone. The victims, mostly in the capital of Port au Prince, were shot from speeding cars or killed in battle between soldiers and vigilantes. Some candidates and election officials blame the violence on supporters of the Duvalier family which ran Haiti for 29 years until Jean Claude Duvalier fled into exile last year. The U. S. is sending a 15 member team to Haiti tomorrow to observe Sunday's elections. MacNEIL: In the central African republic of Zimbabwe, 16 whites were killed in the worst such massacre since the country became independent in 1980. Two of the dead were Americans. The killings occurred on a Christian mission farm in Matabeleland near the provincial capital, Bulawayo. The 16 whites, men, women and 5 children, were tied up and killed with machetes. Two other children escaped the massacre. The government said sporters on the land instigated the killings by a dissident group hunted by federal troops for months. The two Americans killed in the attack were identified as 35 year old David Emerson and 34 year old Karen Iversdaal, both of Montana. In South Africa, government censors cleared the film ''Cry Freedom'' for public screening. The film by Sir Richard Attenborough treats the story of Stephen Biko, a black leader who died in police detention 10 years ago. His death was a traumatic moment in the black struggle against Apartheid and the censors had been expected to ban the film. The U. S. producers, MCA Motion Picture Group, challenged South Africa to approve the film and pledged to donate the local proceeds to the United Nations Children's Fund for use in southern Africa. WOODRUFF: More than 300 people were reported dead from a typhoon that tore through the Philippine Islands yesterday and left another 170,000 people homeless. President Corazon Aquino declared a state of calamity in 11 provinces meaning the government could take over food and other relief supplied. The hardest hit area was in Bekoal region, about 220 southeast of Manila. That wraps up our summary of today's news. Just ahead on the news hour, an update on the Cuban prison situation, consumer confidence after the stock market crash, a move to increase organ transplants and the man who won't quit rocking. End in Sight? WOODRUFF: Our first focus tonight is the Cuban prison story. While the situation has not changed much in Atlanta, officials in Oakdale, Louisiana reported early today that they might be close to a resolution but as the hours passed, that appeared more complicated than anyone let on. As we reported earlier, at a press conference in Washington, the director of the Federal Bureau of Prisons, Michael Quinlan, gave his own version of what was happening at both sites. MR. QUINLAN: There have been several major changes since I last talked to you. At Oakdale, the hostage was released unharmed late Thursday night, thatwas William Happauer, age 31 who is a senior officer specialist at Oakdale and has been with the Bureau of Prisons for over a year and a half. I spoke with Bill Happauer and his wife about an hour ago and they are in good spirits. Also at Oakdale at about 8:30 Eastern time this morning, a correctional counselor, Manny Sedillos, was stabbed by a mentally unstable detainee. Mr. Sedillos, age 40, is a 7 year veteran of the Bureau of Prisons. In this instance, the other detainees acted quickly to stop the assault and release Manny Sedillos for medical care. He's in a local hospital in stable condition. The detainees restrained the attacker and turned him over to staff immediately. I had an opportunity to speak with Manny Sedillos and his wife earlier as well today. He's in good spirits and is hoping to be released in a few days. While this is a very fortunate development, the fact that the rest of the detainees intervened in a very clear fashion and have assured our negotiators that this was a random act indicates that the likelihood that the negotiations presently under way will still be fruitful. There have been several media reports of an impending release of the hostages at Oakdale. I do not want to comment specifically on that aspect of the Oakdale situation other than to say that we appear to be far closer to a resolution with this group than we were yesterday. I hope you respect the fact that in sensitive negotiations of this type I simply cannot release every detail without upsetting a very delicate balance of events. However we do remain hopeful of a relatively prompt resolution of the Oakdale situation. This are still 94 hostages at Atlanta. Negotiations there continue to be productive. Hostages are reported to be safe and we continue to orient our activities and decisions for insuring that they remain safe. The detainees continued to express concern for the hostages and are following their commitment to keep them safe. We are receiving excellent support from all agencies involved in the operation. We are also receiving many offer of support and assistance from outside parties. We will continue to evaluate each of them to see how these concerned individuals can be of aid in resolving this situation. At this point I'll take some questions. REPORTER: What can you tell us about the 3 Cuban negotiators who went in last night in Atlanta, what that might have as an impact. If the deal broke down with them, their involvement last night, why did it break down? MR. QUINLAN: Well, the three Cuban Americans who were part of the negotiating team for the United States have been involved there since yesterday afternoon. They have been very, very helpful. They continue to work with us. We have had some very productive discussions today with the detainees. We continue to be very confident that we can have a resolution of the Atlanta situation as well as the Oakdale situation in the very near future. REPORTER: [unintelligible] the offers of the hostage exchange by the mayor of Miami [inaudible]. MR. QUINLAN: It certainly is very gracious. The offers to make those kinds of very generous offers at this point in the negotiations. We feel that there are many issues that have been discussed that we are trying to get resolution on. At this point we do not think we want to do any of the -- accept any of the offers of switching to outside people for any of the Bureau of Prison's staff hostages. REPORTER: How would you characterize the situation right now in Atlanta as it compares with the situation in Oakdale? Mr. QUINLAN: It is not as close to resolution although it is much closer to resolution than it was yesterday so we continue to make progress and that's a very positive sign and that's all that we can ask for at this point. REPORTER: Have you set any deadline yourselves as to when you might stop negotiating. I realize you can't divulge everything you plan to do but have you set a deadline among yourselves? Mr. QUINLAN: There is no deadline. There is no deadline to stopping the negotiations unless as I indicated previously, the hostages are harmed. We will continue to negotiate. REPORTER: Have the leadership problems been resolved there? Is there a clear group that you've been negotiating with? Mr. QUINLAN: I think that the leadership at Atlanta is still not quite at the level that it is at Oakdale but I think that they're very close to that level. WOODRUFF: To try and get a better understanding of the situation in Atlanta, we have with us Jose Antonio Font, Executive Director of the Cuban American National Foundation. At the request of the detainees in Atlanta, three officers of the foundation arrived at the prison last night to assist with the negotiations there. The three have been inside the prison all day as we just heard from Mr. Quinlan. Mr. Font, it seems to me we're getting slightly contradictory signals. We heard Mr. Quinlan saying that the situation in Atlanta was progressing with regard to the lack of leadership but then we heard a Justice Department official spokesman in Atlanta saying that was still a problem. What's your understanding of that? JOSE ANTONIO FONT, Cuban National American Foundation: Well, my understanding of it is that they have at least now people negotiating with them, leaders of the Cuban American community whom they can trust, not to say they didn't trust anybody from the administration but these people can now speak their language. Jorge Mascanoso, for instance, is recognized as the most effective political leader of the Cuban American community because he has the respect of both party leaderships and the administration. This is important to the prisoners. WOODRUFF: Just quickly, who are the three who are in there? Mr. FONT: As I said, Jorge Mascanoso. He's the chairman of the board of the directors of the foundation who has tremendous access to the administration and to both the Democratic and Republican party leadership, so he has -- the prisoners know what he may say will carry weight. Armando Avedardes is the chairman of the International Committee for Human Rights in Cuba based in Europe. He's spent 22 years in prison. He's the author of ''Against All Hope. '' They know him. They know that he understands their plight as prisoners both in Cuba and here. Likewise, with Martin Peres who spent 28 years in prison, so we have about the best people we could have negotiating with these people in Atlanta. WOODRUFF: Are they actually sitting in on the negotiations at this point? Mr. FONT: Yes, they're coming in and out as needed but they're there. WOODRUFF: What is being negotiated? What are the terms at this point? Mr. FONT: Well, again, one very important thing is we cannot raise expectations of anything here. Practically there's no terms that we can say beyond -- we are gaining trust and this is a very important first step. Gaining trust and not offering anything concrete, just for them to have faith in the American system of justice. WOODRUFF: As we understand it, the inmates still want some sort of guarantee that they won't be sent back to Cuba. Is it as simple as that? Mr. FONT: Well, that is the bottom line for them and it's a major decision. WOODRUFF: Can the United States government make that guarantee? Mr. FONT: That is the big decision to be made. Whether we make it or not, it's another -- what's important that has been accomplished is that they are beginning to understand that the administration has said that we're going to start treating you through our system of justice, not only through our administrative regulatory system and that includes the possibility of you being accepted as a political refugee. WOODRUFF: In other words, this is dealing with them on a different basis from which they were dealt with before. Mr. FONT: That's correct. A major change. WOODRUFF: And what would that mean for these men? For one of these inmates, for example, who pretty much was sure he was going to be sent back to Cuba, what might that mean? Mr. FONT: Well, it means the following. They have made the most eloquent indictment of what Cuban communism is all about. I guess if we would have chosen to bring out the most creative cinematographer, nobody could have set a stage that would have somebody who gives their lives for the right to stay in an American prison rather than living presumably as the Cuban government has said, in freedom inside Cuba. Now the definition of political asylum includes when you believe that your personal safety is in danger if you return to that country, so there's a statement being made here that would be -- WOODRUFF: Just for the sake of argument, Mr. Font, what would be wrong with the United States keeping these people? I mean, they're 2,600, 2,700 people. What's wrong with keeping them all here, just for the sake of argument? Mr. FONT: For the sake of argument, it has been defined as a dangerous group. I think at this point, it's more of a problem in an economic decision than anything else because they're willing to stay within prison so the question is how much does it cost us to keep them in prison? You could take that argument a step further. Who should pay for this? Who is responsible for the predicament we're all in? WOODRUFF: Are you saying that it's come down to an economic decision? Mr. FONT: It could, for the sake of argument as you say. WOODRUFF: What do you think it going to happen? You are obviously in some sort of touch with your people there in the Atlanta prison. What's your sense? Mr. FONT: Well, my sense is that they are beginning to understand that they have made their statements. They have nothing more to gain from continuing the present situation and once they damage or harm one hostage, American public opinion will be -- whatever they are gaining now from American public opinion, that is, allowing them to be treated on an individual case, may be lost, so it's now a question of, with out negotiators and the administration, and all the Americans who are trying to bring this to a conclusion, I think we're in an optimistic bent, from a logical point of view but these are not logical times or logical circumstances. WOODRUFF: But it sounds as if also you're talking as if there's more of a sense of there's a cohesion, of leadership now among the inmates that there wasn't a few days ago. Mr. FONT: It's beginning to become that way. WOODRUFF: Okay. Just one other thing. We had a federal judge in Atlanta quoted today in a report of the New York Times as saying this all could have been avoided if the government had dealt with it 6 or 7 years ago. Is that your view? Mr. FONT: We read that article today. That was our view Monday morning and principally, and here's an important thing to be recognized, as Cuban Americans for the first time we were gaining a procedure for immigration to take place between Cuba and the United States so that Cuban families could be reunited again. After that first little excitement, we became concerned that the very fundamental values that we stand for could be violated when we treat these people en masse. When we look beyond whatever law breaking matter, then we're beginning to define class and we get in trouble as a nation when we do that. WOODRUFF: So you're saying it's better to treat them as individuals. Mr. Font, we thank you for being with us. Mr. FONT: Judy, it's my pleasure and thank you for this opportunity. WOODRUFF: Robin? MacNEIL: Still to come on the News Hour, consumer confidence after the crash, an update on transplants and an essay on rock's Chuck Berry. Crash Of Confidence MacNEIL: Ever since Black Monday, economists have wondered whether the stock market crash would scare American consumers out of the stores. They feared that a big drop in consumer confidence might tilt the economy into recession. Tonight, as the holiday shopping season begins, we examine how valid those fears are. Certainly some retailers are acting worried, as we saw in New York today. It seemed to be a buyer's market with sales everywhere, some blamed directly on the Wall Street crash and bargain hunters were out in big numbers. Bracing themselves for poor sales this year, many retailers are trying to move their goods early in the shopping season instead of waiting for after Christmas sales. In other parts of the country as well there were signs that retailers are nervous about this holiday season. But in Chicago, retailers and shoppers we spoke to were more optimistic. Elizabeth Bracket reports.

ELIZABETH BRACKET: So how much impact has the stock market crash had on sales this season? STORE REPRESENTATIVE: There was a bit of a slowdown but I think certainly this last weekend was encouraging now that we've had some colder weather and I'd like to believe that's indicative of some positive business coming.

BRACKET: Could you relate that initial slowdown directly to what happened in the market? STORE REPRESENTATIVE: For the 1 or 2 days that were difficult, yes, there was a direct correlation between those 2 days and traffic in the stores.

BRACKET: If you had to assess consumer confidence or consumers' mood as they come in here to buy your clothing, is there some hesitancy? SALESMAN: I don't see it at this point. I really frankly do not and I think I'd be in a fair position to judge it with a store of this nature. We draw an awful lot of our trade from the financial district which is a scant couple of blocks away. I haven't seen any of it. SALESMAN: I was affected by it but it has not affected my situation in terms of buying for Christmas or other consumer goods. I'm far more apprehensive of what 12 inches of snow would do to us between now and Christmas than I am the stock market.

BRACKET: In your house Santa Clause is still -- SALESMAN: -- Is still Santa Clause.

BRACKET: In terms of attitude and atmosphere of the store management as well as the consumer, how much impact did it have? SALESMAN: I think that there's been a little shaking of confidence that we've all heard over and over again through newspapers and on tv and I believe there is some validity to that. Again, however, the customers' response to this past weekend seemed to be strong. STORE MANAGER: Even though I think it's mostly an attitude, we've not really seen any net results in the October crash because the buying seems to continue at a little better than average. CUSTOMER: I think that people really are going to not go overboard until they really know what is going to happen with the economy. They're talking about a recession. They're going to wait and see if this is happening.

BRACKET: Did that affect you when you were shopping? CUSTOMER: I don't think so, because I'm not going out for real large items. I'm not buying cars or luxury gifts. STORE MANAGER: I think they're a little bit apprehensive perhaps on maybe a larger ticket item. They're going to stall buying it until they find out exactly what the market it going to do.

BRACKET: Are there any big purchases you were thinking about that you became a little nervous about? CUSTOMER: No, not at all. I -- my gifts are pretty well set so there's nothing really major I would need at this time although I wouldn't mind if I did. I would try to put it off and hold on and see what happens. CUSTOMER: I'm involved in the market and I was very concerned because we did lose quite a bit. We're just waiting for it to come back up. We were going to use the money for a down payment on a house and now it's put us back a little bit. BRACKET: So it did have a big impact on you. CUSTOMER: My husband sat on the edge of the chair every day reading the Wall Street Journal, watching the news reports [incoherent]. BRACKET: Did it impact your Christmas shopping? CUSTOMER: No, I really didn't think about it. Christmas only comes once a year and I really didn't give it much thought. BRACKET: Now people say if it was going to have any impact, it would have impact, the stock market crash, on the big ticket items. You certainly have some big ticket items. Were those not affected either? SALESMAN: Again, I think there were a few customers that did have some purchases that they were considering buying of good size. There has been a little bit of caution and it's a let's hold back on this kind of purchase, although several of those people have since come in and purchased the large ticket items. We really haven't experienced any lull in that end. BRACKET: Would you say you're planning to spend as much or a little more or a little less than you spent last year? CUSTOMER: About as much. We have a generous family, a big family and a lot of friends so we're generous with our gifts. BRACKET: Tell me this, do retailers ever say anything but they're optimistic when they're speaking to the public? SALESMAN: Unfortunately, I have in the past and it's come back to haunt me. We're usually had good turnarounds after I complain and say that things are not going as well as they could. So -- but right now I can't even say that. Again, it's been more than encouraging and actually a little better than expectations. CUSTOMER: I have some real important resolutions for next year. More saving. Not spending as much. Being more careful with budgets. BRACKET: So you think you will probably cut back on what you spend? CUSTOMER: After Christmas. Yeah. MacNEIL: With us are three people who watch consumer behavior closely. Thomas Juster is a professor of economics at the University of Michigan. He specializes in measuring consumer confidence. Franco Modigliani is a professor at MIT who won the Nobel prize on what determines consumption and savings pattern. They will join us from Boston's public television station WGBH. Also joining us is Jane Bryant Quinn, business columnist for Newsweek. Professor Juster, you measure consumer confidence. What are you finding since the crash? THOMAS JUSTER, University of Michigan: Well, there are several things that we know and a number of things that we don't yet know. We took a measurement in the consumer survey which we do monthly and we divided October between pre crash and post crash. What we found was a very substantial decline in consumer optimism on the order of about 10 points. On an index running around the low 90's it dropped down to about the low 80's in late October. In November we don't have the full results yet but it looks as if that 10 point decline is roughly being maintained so there was an impact. It was substantial. It was centered mainly in consumers' expectations about how they thought the economy generally would be doing, not so much in how they thought they'd be doing themselves, how their own financial situation would be evolving. MacNEIL: Does a decline in optimism translate directly into less spending? Prof. JUSTER: Historically it has but the lags are uncertain and the quantitative links are also uncertain and that's compounded because we have never seen that optimism decline or a change which was triggered by an event like the 500 point stock market decline in one day so we have no historical record that you can place much confidence in. MacNEIL: You heard in -- I beg your pardon -- I interrupted. Prof. JUSTER: What you can tell is that it's not going to be good. What you can't tell is how much of a decline it would cause and when it would cause that decline. MacNEIL: You heard a number of people in that little survey we did in Chicago say it wasn't going to affect their immediate buying for Christmas but it might affect them after Christmas on bigger items or encourage them to save more. What does that suggest to you? Prof. JUSTER: Well that makes sense because what I would have expected to happen is that people that have choices to make about buying something or not buying it, buying a large item or buying one that's not so large, that they would tend to make those choices on the conservative side simply because they're uneasy and uncertain about the economy. I heard a lot of comments that were not inconsistent with that view of the world. MacNEIL: Well, we'll come back. Jane Bryant Quinn, do you have a sense yet of how consumers are reacting? JANE BRYANT QUINN, Newsweek: The consumers -- first you have to divide these into 2 groups of consumers, the people who owned stocks and were strongly affected by it, maybe 20% over all all Americans, that all. Everybody else wasn't in the market at all. In fact, some of these people thought it was doggone funny. You could talk to the farmers and talk to the auto workers and talk to the people in the energy industries who went through their recessions, their depressions. They've been having terrible times while Wall Street has been laughing all the way to the bank. Well, a good part of the heartland of America thinks Wall Street has its comeuppance. Now those people are in the same situation now that they were in before. MacNEIL: But isn't there one factor -- isn't there this psychological impact or jolt that they might feel too about the economy even though they didn't own stock themselves? Ms. QUINN: I think that there is and that's what Tom is measuring, this concern, wondering what's going to come up but I think that what you saw in this Chicago survey is that the plans that people have in mind now, they're going to continue to carry through. They were going to buy a car. They were going to Christmas shop because nothing has affected their jobs yet. There haven't been plants closings. We haven't had a recession come yet, so these people are going ahead with the plans they had already but I think that what the market has done to everyone -- we'll see this -- is that it's made everyone much more concerned about safety. We've been living in a world where you didn't have to worry about things. You put your money in the market. You could let it grow. It would be okay and we really didn't think about the amount of risk that was going on and now with this sudden jolt, people are saying hey, the world is not as safe as I thought it was and I think as far as investments are concerned, people are going more to safety on that side and as far as spending it concerned as that woman in Chicago mentioned, I think after Christmas, people will say, okay, it's time for me to look for my personal security. You will see more saving then, less spending and that's not good, of course, for the economy. MacNEIL: Professor Modigliani, how do you think consumers will react? FRANCO MODIGLIANI, Mass. Institute of Technology: I am afraid I am monotonously in agreement with the 2 speakers who spoke before me. I think there is no question that the stock market break will have an adverse effect on consumption and therefore on the economy and at the same time I believe that effect will be relatively small. As has been pointed out, you have to distinguish between 2 effects of the break. One is that it makes people poorer because they lost wealth and the other is that it affects their expectations of the future. The first effect is really rather modest. The market broke by 25%. However, you have to remember that stock market wealth is only a small component of total wealth, maybe 15% or so, so it amounts to something like 3 trillions and the 25% of that is about 3/4 of one trillion. Economists have studied the effect of wealth on consumption and we find that roughly it is something like 3 cents to 6 cents per dollar so if you lose a dollar, you would consume from 3 to 6 cents less. Applying it to the figure I gave before, 3/4 of a billion, we find that the loss of consumption may be between say 20 and 40 billion and that's just about 1% plus or minus one half. MacNEIL: I beg your pardon -- Prof. MODIGLIANI: So that it is 1%, not negligible but it is not large. MacNEIL: Many economists were worried or expressed the fear right after the crash that a big drop in consumer confidence and spending could tilt the economy into a recession. How much towards a recession could that 1% push it? Prof. MODIGLIANI: Well, from one point of view it's a big number. If you are expecting a growth of 3 1/2% before, now you're expecting a growth of 2 1/2, that's a big number. On the other hand, in an absolute sense 1% is not a large number and you know, if the economy grows 3 1/2 or 2 1/2, most people will hardy notice it. So I think from that point of view, you can say that this is not likely to create a major problem. MacNEIL: And when will this show up, this new pattern of being more cautious about spending in the future, resulting in a 1% drop in consumption or in GNP? When will it show up? Prof. MODIGLIANI: It will come up throughout the year. Now I have to indicate that one reasons why the effect may be smallish on this occasion is that the rise in stock has been almost as fast as the fall in stocks. Stocks fell in one day but we are now back to where the market was in January of 1987, only 10 months away so it's a case of quick come, quick gone and it is unlikely that people will be very deeply effected either by the rise or by the fall. So I would expect that the response to this will be spread through the year. I don't expect any [inaudible]. MacNEIL: Professor Juster, is it how the consumers react to this specific event of October 19 or whether they fear there's going to be some other jolt that will affect their behavior? Prof. JUSTER: I think I agree with much of what Franco just said and I think we'd -- I would argue that the real problem that may arise is not because there is a slowdown of the order of a percent or maybe a little more depending on the timing. The real problem will be if the initial jolt which caused a sag in confidence is followed by further deterioration which would result from the fact that consumers generally feel that there must have been a reason for that decline. It's a vote of no confidence in economic policy. If they feel that the policy makers aren't in control of things, that they're not making -- that they're not fixing whatever it is that was perceived to be incorrect, wrong, badly judged about past policy, then I think you have the possibility that people will continue to lose confidence further than they've lost it already. That's yet to be seen but I think that's the real risk. You won't get a recession out of this unless there's a further deterioration of consumer optimism and I think that's most likely if people perceive that the economy is not being well run, not being well managed, that we have a major problem and no one's willing to face up to it. MacNEIL: Do you, Jane Bryant Quinn, do you agree with that, that the deficit reduction negotiations and the whole sort of Washington activity after the crash is a factor in the consumer confidence? Ms. QUINN: I think it would be a factor in what goes on from this point forward. I think the point is very well taken that so far we think we're okay but all you can say is so far and what happens from this point on is of great concern. It will tell us whether we have a mild recession or slow growth or whether we go off into something much more serious and here you come into political decisions that have not yet been made and of course, they're very serious. MacNEIL: Professor Modigliani, does that mean that consumers could fulfill their own prophecy this way? I mean, if they lack confidence and spend less because they're not sure the economy, where the economy's going then they could create the negative situation that they fear. Prof. MODIGLIANI: Well, that certainly is the case. Of course, you see, you do have the old problem that raw consumption is good in the short run even though it's not good in the long run. In the long run they would like people to save more so we can have more investment but in the short run, people unexpectedly consume less, then that creates a lack of demand and creates low activity and unemployment and I would also like to say that this event, I think, the break of the market, has registered in this expectation polls indicates that people are much more sensitive to the news now. The government better be very careful in what it does and I think one thing we will have to watch is the foreign exchange market. There is a danger with this very inadequate measures of the deficit which have been taken that we might see still a stampede on the market, on the dollar, and that would have tremendous repercussions with people already shaken. MS. QUINN: If I may just add something to that. In -- I hate to say the awful word 1929 -- but after the 1929 crash -- that just started out as a financial panic and you read the papers after that panic and early 1930 and they read just --like the papers today. Everything seems to be okay and we're building back but decisions were being made that were political decisions and currency decisions and international economic connections that subsequently led us on into something much worse and we're in the period now where we don't know whether we're going to come out of it okay or whether these decisions we're talking about not only in Washington but in Germany and Japan are going to keep this international economy together, this is the wait and see time and it's a scary time. MacNEIL: So if policymakers were waiting to see over the next 4 weeks until Christmas whether the American consumer was going to bail the economy out, they're looking to the wrong place, obviously. MS. QUINN: They should be looking at themselves. Consumers are watching them and seeing it they are the tooth fairy that's going to save us here but as far as the consumer is concerned, though, I think you also have to remember that he's pretty much tapped out. The consumer's been spending like mad for 5 years and they're up -- they've got a lot of hock, they have a lot of debt, they're income has not been rising as fast as they would have liked. They're kind of running down. You see these huge Christmas sales in the stores. You know, it's no accident. MacNEIL: Just finish on that note. The Christmas sales. Are the merchants, are the retailers as terrified as their behavior would claim or is this just a tactic to -- a merchandising tactic. MS. QUINN: This is something I think we should make clear. For several years now the idea of the pre Christmas sale has become a kind of ritual. The merchants buy things specifically in order to put them on sale right after Thanksgiving because they've learned that it's the sales that bring people into the stores so they buy goods intending them to be on sale. The first round of pre Christmas sales was already there. It doesn't tell you anything about what retailers are thinking. Right now what we have is a test of will between the retailer and the consumer. If the consumer says okay, you put up your pre Christmas sale. Is that enough? And if the consumer sits back and says I don't think it's enough. Give me something more, then you will see a worried retailer so you have to look now to see if we get a second round of cuts because Christmas. That would be a bad sign. MacNEIL: Okay. Well, Professor Modigliani and Professor Juster in Boston, thank you for joining us. Jane Bryant Quinn in New York. Thank you. Transplants WOODRUFF: Next,an update on organ transplants. This week the hospital of the University of Pennsylvania announced the first successful transplant of an entire human knee and in Pittsburgh a 3 year old toddler is recovering from an unusual 5 organ transplant performed on her 4 weeks ago. Operations like these represent quantum medical leaps from just a few years ago when Jamie Fiske of Boston received a new liver following a nationwide appeal by her parents. Jamie Fisk celebrated her 6th birthday yesterday just as a new federal regulation goes into effect to improve the organ donation and delivery process. Our update is from Fred Sam Lazaro of public station KTCA, Minneapolis/St. Paul. TELEVISION HOST: Jamie and her father Charles are here with us tonight. Welcome to all of you, and a special welcome to you, Jamie and your friend. FRED SAM LAZARO: Five year old Jamie Fiske from Boston, comes to Minneapolis once each year. She's a celebrity simply because she's a normal everyday 5 year old. That prospect seemed like a long shot 4 years ago when Jamie Fiske lay dying at the University of Minnesota Hospital waiting for a liver transplant. Jamie's father, Charles Fiske, launched a nationwide appeal for a donor. Here in New York he became the first non physician ever to address the American Pediatrics Association. CHARLES FISKE: I know that within one week at least one person in this room will see a trauma situation where possibly a donor liver or a donor kidney could be identified. I'm asking you on Jamie's behalf to do that. DR. JOHN NAJARIAN: Jamie Fiske in many ways contributed tremendously to organ transplantation. LAZARO: Dr. John Najarian performed Jamie Fiske's transplant. He is chief of surgery at the University of Minnesota Hospitals. DR. NAJARIAN: That made people aware because they saw that case and they followed Jamie Fiske, and they saw this poor little girl with her skinny little arms and her great big protruding belly as yellow as a gourd turn into a normal little girl and she's grown in the same way ever since. When we did Jamie Fiske back 5 years ago now this November, the number of liver transplants being done on children was very limited, maybe at the most a dozen or so because the organs weren't available. And now we did, as I said, almost 1,000 livers last year. PETER THORN, Transplant Recipient: I feel extremely fortunate that I personally didn't have to make an appeal, also that my wife did not have to appear on television and beg for that kind of thing. LAZARO: Today's transplant patients like Peter Thorn have far fewer anxious moments. The surgery's become almost routine thanks to improved technology and anti rejection drugs. Thorn went in for open heart surgery last May. Doctors discovered that he needed a new heart. It took about 2 weeks to find a matching donor, a period in which Thorn was kept alive with an artificial heart. MR. THORN: We all firmly believed that there would be a donor heart. Much as I hate to say it I knew that the fourth of July weekend was approaching and that I think is probably the national holiday which produces the most automobile accidents and things like that, although I certainly was not wishing for anybody to become a donor on my behalf.

LAZARO: Peter Thorn is living proof of transplant surgery's quantum leap ahead but his case also highlights what remains the biggest riddle facing surgeons, the shortage of donor organs. Dr. Robert Emery was Thorn's transplant surgeon. DR. ROBERT EMERY: We believe strongly the human heart is the best way to go because of a shortage of organs, the bottleneck particularly in the heart transplant field where people are critical and die without this organ, you know, we have no dialysis or back up situation like that the Jarvin situation became our dialysis machine. DR. NAJARIAN: It's been once estimated that there probably are somewhere between 10 and 15,000 donors each year that could be donors that are in good enough shape. The organ could be used and we're utilizing currently at best maybe 6 or 7,000 so we're doing about half of what's available.

LAZARO: Under new federal guidelines, doctors will be required to identify every potential organ and donor. Most are patients who are brain dead and whose bodies are kept functioning with life support systems. The hospital must then make sure families are told they have the option to donate the relative's organs. DR. NAJARIAN: In every state where it's been enacted and it's been going on now for about a year at the state level, it's almost doubled their supply of donors so we expect that it should have a tremendous effect.

LAZARO: In other words, many Americans would donate a relative's organs if they were asked. Many families are not asked. DR. NAJARIAN: A doctor who's visiting in a hospital, maybe in an emergency room or taking care of someone who recently had a stroke, that's not his first or highest priority.

LAZARO: Also, approaching suddenly bereaved families for organ donations is just too difficult and awkward, even for experienced health care professionals. Michael Oleson is a transplant coordinator as Abbott Northwestern Hospital in Minneapolis. MICHAEL OLESON Abbot Northwestern Hospital:, Not only is the family grieving of their loss but the staff nurse and the staff physician are also in a state of grieving. They've lost a patient. We need to teach our own professional staff how to step beyond their own grief as well and think of and mention to families about the possibility of organ donation.

LAZARO: Under the new regulations, hospital staffers, not necessarily the emergency or intensive care teams, will have to assure that the donation request is made. If consent is given, the hospital will notify a designated clearing house like a Red Cross facility. These regional agencies will in turn be linked by a computerized national organ sharing network based in Richmond, Virginia. If experience from similar state laws is any gauge, so called required request laws will shorten transplant waiting lists across the country but Najarian says he thinks it falls one step short. NAJARIAN: I would have liked the law to state that brain death is basically in fact death, the definition of death being brain death. We do not have a brain dead law in this state, as a matter of fact. If that could be mandated as a federal law, that when brain death is diagnosed that this is equivalent to death of the individual, this would help us get more organs, I'm sure.

LAZARO: Health care professionals say the word death has an air of finality but brain dead does not. They say this is important in gaining the consent of a donor family, in helping the family feel comfortable there's absolutely no chance of a survival. Gary and Jean Ales of St. Paul, Minnesota faced the dilemma earlier this year. Their 18 year old son Kevin suffered a massive brain aneurism and was declared brain dead. Although Kevin wanted to be a donor and had discussed it with his family long before, his parents say they were unprepared for the reality. GARY ALES: We are 7 months into the process now. Every night we have the discussion of should we have waited a little longer, could we have done anything more. Are we sure that we waited enough time before we made that decision? JEANS ALES: I have no complaints about any of the medical care or the doctors or anything. But there is in the back of my mind this idea of well, maybe we should have pulled him off the respirator and made sure he wouldn't be able to breathe because in a way he went into the transplant when they removed his organs. He was breathing. His heart was beating. His body was functioning.

LAZARO: The Ales say they are also concerned that in the euphoria caused by successful transplants the donor side of the equation has received little acknowledgment or recognition, something they say the new law does little to help. MR. ALES: The recipient is given public recognition. We've seen that many, many times on national tv and local tv. We have seen in the press the same thing. We've seen doctors interviewed. I know the medical people talk about the term I don't feel comfortable with. I resent the word cadaver and they talk about a body and they talk about harvesting organs. Those terms turn me off. That shows an insensitivity to us and to Kevin's gift.

LAZARO: Health care professionals say the lower profile given donor families is intended to protect their privacy but they have no argument with the need to deal with more human aspects of their trade, things like sensitivity with donor families. Transplant coordinator Oleson says laws cannot require this but he says it is part of an evolving code of ethics. Mr. OLESON: I think we're all learning in this, this is a new field and maybe periodic updates for the first 6 months or something to let the donor family know that the patient made it through surgery and is doing well. If the patient's returned to work, they should know that and I think that again would bring a sense of joy to them knowing that they not only made it through surgery but he's back to work. He's back to doing what he hasn't been able to do for years. WOODRUFF: A final note. Tabatha Foster, the 3 year old who received a new liver, pancreas, small intestine and parts of a stomach and colon on November 1 remains in critical but stable condition at Pittsburgh's Children's Hospital. She was taken off a respirator yesterday and hospital officials said she was able to watch the holiday parades on television. Angel of Rock MacNEIL: Finally tonight we have an essay. Penny Stallings looks at the life of a rock 'n roll legend, Chuck Berry. PENNY STALLINGS: Little Richard was a clown. Fats Domino a big round teddy bear, but Chuck Berry, he was a brown eyed handsome man who turned on all the sweet little things. Of course, that was the problem. [inaudible] an almost telepathic genius for translating the realities of teen lives and jukebox lingo, Chuck Berry captured the imagination of America's soda shop set back in the 50's, bringing black and white together under the banner of rock 'n roll. He had the cool of a riverboat gambler, the voice of a poet and the grace of a move star. For all this and more, Chuck Berry was a modest man. The adoration of white teenagers made Berry the most likely R&B star to cross over the color barrier into the mainstream market. However there was just one little problem, at least the way the policeman in segregated St. Louis saw it. His fondness for women, women of all ages, women of all colors. [inaudible] proved his downfall in 1959 when he was twice charged with violation of the Mann Act. Many think Berry's 2 trials were blatantly racist and that he was railroaded into a 3 year prison sentence. Along with the loss of Elvis Presley to the Army, Buddy Holly to a North Dakota mountaintop and Little Richard to the ministry, Chuck Berry's prison exile was a devastating blow to pop music and culture. The void was filled with the pseudo soul of Paul Anka, Bobby Rydell, Fabian and Pat Boone. [inaudible] many pressured by old school producers who [inaudible] a lot of them to overcome their basic contempt for the new music. Yes, if there's anything the record biz respects, it's a billion dollar a year take, and that roughly was what rock 'n roll was pulling in. Friends say that Berry was a changed man when he came out of prison in 1962, withdrawn, bitter and sometimes downright mean but he had a right to sing the blues. In his absence his kind of rock had become passe and he himself was no longer in demand in America. The final indignity came when, after paying millions of dollars in taxes during his career, he was once again sent to prison in 1979, this time for tax evasion. As usual, he bore his punishment in silence. After 30 years of harassment by various guardians of the public morality, Chuck Berry has at last come into his own. He's been inducted into the rock 'n roll and songwriters hall of fame and received the record industry's lifetime achievement award and now, after years of brusquely evading interviewers' questions about his past, he's written his autobiography, a sassy bebop reminiscence that clears up some though not all of the mystery of those lost years. His turbulent life and times are also the subject of a dynamic new film, ''Hail, Hail Rock 'N Roll. '' Chuck Berry is a rock 'n roll monument now but can all the accolades make up for the lost years, for the songs gone unwritten, for the damage to pop music and culture? Nothing can change the fact that Chuck Berry was robbed and we were robbed of Chuck Berry. Still, his original classics live on as the stuff of teen dream myths. They ring as true from a tinny car radio as from the satellite Voyager One which blasted his jubilant sounds of Johnny Be Good into the cosmos in 1986. Thanks to space age technology, the genius of Chuck Berry echoed through infinity, through time, space and the paradise of perpetual youth. Recap MacNEIL: Again the main points in the news this Friday, Cuban detainees were expected to release their hostages in Louisiana but the plans stalled. Late today a Justice Department source said negotiations had been temporarily suspended. Two French hostages were freed in Lebanon. Two Americans were among 16 whites killed in a massacre in Zimbabwe. Good night, Judy. WOODRUFF: Goodnight, Robin and that's our News Hour for tonight. We'll be back Monday night. I'm Judy Woodruff. Thank you and have a good weekend.