The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MS. WOODRUFF: Good evening. I'm Judy Woodruff in Washington.

MR. MacNeil: And I'm Robert MacNeil in New York. After we summarize the news this Friday, we report on the Maryland primary where Paul Tsongas needs to show he can win outside his own territory. We analyze all the week's politics with David Gergen and Mark Shields. We have a documentary look at how the Kurds are surviving in Iraq and discuss what they want from the United States. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. MacNeil: Iraq today defied a United Nations deadline for the destruction of some of its Scud missile facilities. Iraq sent the Security Council a letter just before the midafternoon deadline. U.S. Ambassador Thomas Pickering said the letter was totally unacceptable and, in his words, amounted to seven pages of no. Asked whether a military strike against Iraq was possible, Pickering said no option had been ruled out. Jeffrey Archer of Independent Television News reports on Iraq's continuing defiance of the Gulf War cease-fire resolutions.

MR. ARCHER: Iraq wants the U.N. Security Council to lift sanctions but is continuing to resist U.N. measures to destroy its weapons of mass destruction.

THOMAS PICKERING, U.N. Ambassador: Well, the Iraqis never cease to surprise me, but they are clearly now moving in a mode of challenging the resolution which the Security Council has passed and we know that that is not a useful road to proceed on.

MR. ARCHER: Iraq has allowed destruction of some of its SCUD missiles but retains the equipment to build more of them. That's what the U.N. inspectors insist the Iraqis must agree to destroy. It's the second time in six months that the U.N. and Iraq have clashed over the elimination of Iraqi weapons. Last September there was a four day row over documents revealing the site of the Iraqi nuclear program. Saddam Hussein's government wants the U.N. to ease sanctions if he's to cooperate, but the U.N. insists on full unconditional compliance with the cease-fire terms and international pressure for Saddam's removal is now increasing.

MR. MacNeil: The U.N. Security Council today gave formal approval to a U.N. peacekeeping operation in Cambodia. The 22,000 member force will virtually run the country until free elections are held in 1993. The Security Council approval was unanimous. The peacekeeping operation will be the largest ever undertaken by the U.N., which last fall brokered a cease-fire in Cambodia's 13 year old civil war. Judy.

MS. WOODRUFF: The U.S. economy grew faster than previously thought in the last three months of 1991. The Commerce Department reported today the gross domestic product rose .8 percent in the fourth quarter, up from its original estimate of .3 percent. The GDP, as it's called, was down .7 percent for all of 1991. General Motors signed an agreement today to build cars in Poland. The $75 million deal with the Polish government is the biggest investment to date by a U.S. company in that country. Poland has lagged behind other former East Bloc nations in attracting Western investment. GM Europe plans to assemble about 35,000 cars a year at the Warsaw plant.

MR. MacNeil: A Michigan judge ruled today that Dr. Jack Kevorkian, the inventor of the so-called "suicide machine," should be tried for murder. The 63 year old doctor has been charged with helping two women commit suicide last October. A medical examiner ruled those deaths as homicides. The women were suffering from chronic but not terminal diseases and used Dr. Kevorkian's machine to kill themselves.

MS. WOODRUFF: A bomb exploded at one of London's busiest train stations today. It happened at the London Bridge station during the morning rush hour. At least 28 people were hurt and police are blaming the Irish Republican Army. Robin White of Independent Television News reports.

MR. WHITE: The bomb exploded at the height of the rush hour, two pounds of Semtex on a timing device left in a lavatory between two platforms. The blast rocked the concourse, sending people and glass flying. There had been a warning, without saying which station, phoned to a television company at 8:15. At 8:20, the police were alerted. At 8:29 the bomb exploded, leaving no time to evacuate people. As the injured were carried out, the nearby Guys Hospital was put on alert. Of the twenty-eight hurt, four suffered what were described as moderately serious injuries. Surgeons were surprised that the casualties had not been worse. The commander of the anti- terrorist squad described the bombing as a typical, irresponsible, criminal and callous act by the provisional IRA. London Bridge was reopened by lunch time, with traders ruing a lost morning's takings. Other stations though continued to be disrupted with a series of alerts.

MS. WOODRUFF: The U.S. Civil Rights Commission today urged Presidential candidates to end the political rhetoric it described as "Japan bashing." The Commission said leaders who unthinkingly blame Japan for this country's economic woes are contributing to a rise in racial animosity and violence against all Asian- Americans. Asians are the fastest growing minority group in the United States. They number 7.3 million people. Today's report by the Civil Rights Commission followed two years of research and hearings on the problems facing Asians in this country.

MR. MacNeil: Conflict between the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijain appeared to be escalating today. Troops of the former Soviet army were ordered out of a disputed region in Azerbaijan after heavy fighting between the rival republics. This amateur video shot Wednesday shows Armenian forces attacking a town in that region. It's populated by Christian Armenians but controlled by Muslim Azerbaijan. An Iranian-brokered cease-fire collapsed yesterday just hours after it was declared and today Armenia called on its citizens and the former Soviet army to create a national army to defend the republic from Azerbaijan. Albania's main port was sealed today after several days of food riots. The action came after thousands of people had crammed the port in the hope of fleeing to Italy. Last summer, tens of thousands of Albanians fled to Italy aboard commandeered ships in a bid to escape food shortages and poverty. Most were returned to Albania. At least three people have been killed this week in the latest wave of rioting over continued food shortages.

MS. WOODRUFF: That's it for our News Summary. Just ahead on the NewsHour, the Presidential campaign heats up, we have a report from Maryland and analysis from Gergen & Shields, then the continuing struggle of the Kurds in Saddam Hussein's Iraq. FOCUS - '92 ELECTION - LONG DISTANCE RUNNER?

MS. WOODRUFF: First up tonight is Campaign '92. This has been a turbulent week. The Democratic race got nasty and the Republican contest got meaner. We'll hear from our regular political analysts, Gergen & Shields, about all that in a moment. But first, a look at the Democratic battle in Maryland, where former Massachusetts Senator Paul Tsongas, who won in New Hampshire, is facing a critical test of his ability to win outside his home base.

PAUL TSONGAS: I really need your help. This is the place where a lot of people are going to watch us and make a determination about our viability.

MS. WOODRUFF: This place is the state of Maryland, not quite the South, but far enough away from New England to be considered a test of Paul Tsongas's appeal outside his native region.

JUDGE EDGAR SILVER, Tsongas Supporter: If Paul Tsongas does well here, I think it'll help him quite a bit in some of those so-called "border states."And I'm not talking about geographic border, but in terms of political purposes.

MS. WOODRUFF: Where New Hampshire offered all the Democratic candidates for President a few hundred thousand voters at whom to aim their appeal, Maryland is more crowded, some 1.4 million registered Democrats, and it's more diverse. Where New Hampshire was almost totally white, Maryland is 25 percent black and more than 5 percent Asian, Hispanic, or other ethnic groups.

JOHN WILLIS, Maryland Political Analyst: We have the 7th Congressional District, which is Baltimore City and Baltimore County, which is 70 percent black, but we have the 6th Congressional District in Western Maryland, which is only 2 percent, 2 to 3 percent minority district and represents sort of a Lincoln Republicanism, if you will, similar to what you may find in the Ohio Valley and out into Indiana. In Southern Maryland on the Eastern shore we're very much like some of the Southern areas around Atlanta.

MS. WOODRUFF: John Willis, a local government official and college professor, who has written a book on Presidential elections in Maryland, says his state has economic variety was well.

JOHN WILLIS: We have a large government work force. We also have a diverse labor base. We have everything from watermen and rural agricultural to manufacture and industrial base around the Baltimore Port.

MS. WOODRUFF: Because of this diversity, some have called Maryland "America in miniature." One thing that makes it different, however, is that voters are clearly affected by being so close to the central of the federal government.

JOHN WILLIS: I think our geographic proximity to the nation's capital makes us a little more skeptical to national political slogans and we tend to look more at can the person run government as opposed to where are they in terms of their symbols and where are they in terms of any kind of media campaign.

PAUL TSONGAS: My glasses? [putting glasses on]

MS. WOODRUFF: That may actually work to the benefit of the former Massachusetts Senator, whose appearances on television are hardly polished.

PAUL TSONGAS: People say that my attempt at a new look.

MS. WOODRUFF: Helpful or not, it's a sharp contrast to Tsongas's chief rival here, Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton, who shines on camera and in front of crowds even when he's losing his voice.

GOV. BILL CLINTON: I got into politics because I could not stand the thought of people growing up and not living up to their God given potential. And I'm running for President because that is not happening today and I can't do better. Thank you very much.

MS. WOODRUFF: Any other year, that powerful TV delivery and appealing message might make Clinton a shoe-in, particularly in a race where voters have little time to make up their minds. And Clinton may yet do well here, what with his impressive organization and longest of endorsements from elected officials, including the black mayor of Baltimore, Kurt Schmoke. But political observers say with no victory under his belt, Clinton is handicapped.

C. FRASER SMITH, Baltimore Sun: If he'd won in New Hampshire, he would have had that momentum coming in here and he would have had the people on the street to hand out his literature and talk. But at this point they're playing a little catch-up I think.

MS. WOODRUFF: What do you mean, because of the coming in second in New Hampshire?

C. FRASER SMITH: Well, he's a little bit off balance, it seems, given my sense of his people and the way they're behaving here is that they're a little off balance. They don't quite know where to go.

MS. WOODRUFF: The Tsongas campaign, on the other hand, is facing a more receptive electorate in some ways than they expected. Maryland is a state that time and again has elected politicians with Greek, Polish and other ethnic backgrounds. The name Tsongas won't be as off putting here as it might be in the deep South. As for his economic message, a pro-growth, pro-business blueprint opposed to any of the current plans for a modest middle class tax cut, Tsongas has apparently struck a responsive chord.

PAUL TSONGAS: The first job is to give the middle class work. That is the ultimate obligation. And then when the economy is running, we deal with the deficit. We're a competitive nation and we're in the position where we're profitable in terms of taxes. Then you can go back and lower the taxes of the middle class and raise the taxes on the wealthy. So you bring some kind of balance. But this is not the time to do that. We have a $400 billion deficit.

MS. WOODRUFF: Sensing that the message is winning over voters, Clinton has gone on the attack and tried to paint Tsongas as more Republican than Democrat.

COMMERCIAL SPOKESMAN: Time Magazine says much of what Tsongas proposes smacks of trickle down economics. He even says he'll be the best friend Wall Street ever had.

MS. WOODRUFF: Clinton, himself, conceded that one chunk of the Maryland electorate is tailor-made for his opponent.

GOV. BILL CLINTON: Well, I don't even know that I'll win there. I'm just going to try to win there. After all, suburban Maryland is basically dominated by high income Democrats, and Mr. Tsongas's appeal is primarily to high income Democrats.

MS. WOODRUFF: Political analysts agree that Tsongas is no Santa Claus, take your medicine message was well received by better educated and higher income Democrats in New Hampshire. Those voters dominate in the densely populated area North of the capital city. On paper then, Tsongas should have a leg up in Maryland and we found many Democratic voters this week in the affluent D.C. suburbs who are drawn to him. But we also found them worried about whether he can be elected in November.

NANCY SYLVIO, Bethesda: I find that I probably believe a lot of what he says and even I, who believe in what he says, finds it difficult to listen to. And that's a shame.

MS. WOODRUFF: Because of why?

NANCY SYLVIO: Because his voice is monotonous and I wish I didn't have to say that. I wish I could jump up and down and get excited when I heard him speak. But I do like what he says.

MS. WOODRUFF: How important to you is it that the Democratic nominee be electable, as you put it?

NANCY SYLVIO: Right now? I don't want to say winning's everything, but it's a lot.

MARY LEE, Silver Spring: Tsongas makes Dukakis look like a song and dance man. His ideas are good. I don't think he'll be electable because the American people are so used to television personalities they need seven second bites and he doesn't have them.

MS. WOODRUFF: Really?

MARY LEE: Yeah. His ideas are great, but not too many of the electorate are going to read his ideas.

MS. WOODRUFF: Is that a reason to vote against him?

MARY LEE: No. I will vote, that's probably who I will end up voting for because, you know, he seems like a quality fellow, but I'm not excited about the choice and I don't think he can beat George Bush. And I would love to have somebody that could beat George Bush, I really would.

MS. WOODRUFF: That same theme is also uppermost on the minds of a group of black voters from inner-city Baltimore. Put together by a community organizer, they told us getting a Democrat in the White House is their chief concern.

LESLIE HOWARD, Baltimore: I think our cities and particularly the African-American community has been devastated by the Reagan-Bush administration and the policies of disinvestment and disenfranchisement that we've seen occur over the last 12 years.

MS. WOODRUFF: Leslie Howard works for the city's Economic Development Corporation. Joseph Slade retired two years ago from a steel company where he had worked for almost four decades. Right now he says he would vote for either Clinton or Tsongas.

JOSEPH SLADE, Baltimore: I think they are in the lead and we got so many Democrats out there running if you get two in the lead, I say pick those two up and send them onto to the top.

MS. WOODRUFF: Is there something about Mr. Clinton that appeals to you in particular do you think?

JOSEPH SLADE: No, not really. Neither one of them did anything to impress me, but they are Democrats, so this is what we have and so that's the way I have to go.

MS. WOODRUFF: What about you, Mr. Green, any candidate clearly express what you're interested in?

SAM GREEN, Baltimore: No, not exactly. I have got my eye on Paul.

MS. WOODRUFF: Who is that, Mr. Tsongas?

SAM GREEN: Paul Tsongas.

MS. WOODRUFF: Why is that? What do you think?

SAM GREEN: From the way he sounds on TV, I think he might be the right one.

MS. WOODRUFF: Sam Green formerly worked in the home improvement business. Barnadette Devone put the group together and is urging all her friends to vote, but she is discouraged that no Democrat this year is stressing the needs of lower income blacks.

BARNADETTE DEVONE, Baltimore: I would like to see a candidate that works for all of the people, a candidate who's concerned with what's happening not only in the middle class segment but in the lower urban city communities. We have quite a lot of problems out here, crime and drugs.

MAN IN GROUP: Not very many of them have been willing to identify with poor people and the unemployed and the homeless and single mothers and people on welfare. It's almost as if this doesn't exist in this country.

MS. WOODRUFF: Because of that, this group agreed many blacks may not vote at all. They also complained about the lack of information about the candidates' views and criticized the new media for focusing too much on who's ahead. That same complaint arose here at the Southern, more rural end of the state. In Leonard Town, Maryland, income levels are higher and there is interest in Tsongas.

MICHAEL WHITSON, Small Businessman: I think it's Paul Tsongas principally because he has shown a consistent perception that our problems are very very serious. They are fundamental. They are not amenable to change by quick easy kind of sloganeering. He said that all of the issues about the budget, even entitlements, the sacred cows have to be looked at. I haven't heard anyone say that, other than him.

MS. WOODRUFF: But as in the Washington suburbs, there is concern about his staying power.

CHARLES NEWKIRK, Homebuilder: Tsongas does appeal to me. I like his notions too about national health insurance. Again, there has to be some kind of a relationship between government, leadership on the government, and there has to be some type of responsible position taken by business, a commitment made, if you will, to share this cost. The problem with Tsongas though is I don't think he can win.

MS. WOODRUFF: Civil Servant Norm Geisel is troubled by contradictions he sees in Tsongas's message.

NORMAN GEISEL, Naval Project Manager: I think Tsongas is probably singing the best song, although when you look at him as a Democrat, his track record doesn't speak that well. He has a split. He's for business issues on one side. That's because it's feeding his coffers. Then he turns and he goes to the real liberal side for the education and the welfare. And I just feel that that's the message he's sending down now. Is that what our people want?

MICHAEL WHITSON: Well, I think that's an interesting characterization of a President, of a potential President, who, on the one hand, is seen as pro-business, he's said very often, Democrats love the employees, that the problem they have is with the employers and all that. He does have a pro-business -- on the other hand, he has a progressive social record, which speaks to his ability to really enact a real national health care program.

MS. WOODRUFF: The one thing these Leonard Town Democrats agree on is there is a desire for change at the top.

CHRIS BANKS, Teacher: I agree with Mr. Whitson. There is a definite need for a leader with vision and my feeling too is a person who is in touch with the population person, unlike George Bush, who's going to say that, yes, there is a recession, I mean, not wait until someone tells me that, hey well the second time around there's a recession, but realizes that hey, they're out there, people out of work, and they need more than what he's offering.

MS. WOODRUFF: It may be worth noting that unlike in New Hampshire, none of the voters we spoke with in Maryland mentioned Tsongas's health, his past battle with cancer. For more on where things stand in the political arena, we turn to Roger Mudd. Roger. FOCUS - '92 - GERGEN & SHIELDS

MR. MUDD: It's Friday and that means it's got to be Gergen & Shields and that means David Gergen, editor at large for U.S. News & World Report, and Mark Shields, syndicated columnist. Let me ask each one of you very quickly for a thumbnail of this past Democratic week. David.

MR. GERGEN: Roger, we ended the week with blood on the floor, the candidates diminished in stature, and a growing fear in the party, the same fear they had in 1988, that they won't be able to find a candidate when they go to the convention.

MR. MUDD: Mark.

MR. SHIELDS: The Democrats had spent most of New Hampshire talking about ideas and policy. This past week they reverted to a more pristine Democratic approach and started calling each other cowardly, deceitful, cold blooded, and I guess just about everything else under the sun.

MR. MUDD: All right. Let's take a look at a few of those surprisingly harsh moments from this Democratic campaign this week. We begin with Sen. Bob Kerrey's appearance on the NewsHour.

MR. LEHRER: [Wednesday] Were you suggesting a moment ago, Senator, that you are more qualified to be President of the United States than Bill Clinton, and then, by inference, Paul Tsongas and Jerry Brown, because you served in the military? SEN. BOB KERREY, Democratic Presidential Candidate: No. I'm just saying that it does give me an appreciation. And, by the way, it allows me to go into the general election without that becoming an issue. And these Republicans will make it an issue.

MR. LEHRER: You mean Bill Clinton? SEN. KERREY: I think they're going to open up Bill Clinton like a boiled peanut on this issue and we ought to be debating the economy. We have to be debating jobs and health care and education and those things so important to Americans.

GOV. BILL CLINTON, Democratic Presidential Candidate: [Thursday] I hope that tomorrow he'll wake up as his own self, remind himself that he came as an opponent of the Vietnam War and he remind himself of the facts of my case. I did nothing dishonorable, or illegal. I had a deferment. I gave it up. I put myself back into the draft. The lottery then came in. I got a high number. The facts are clear.

MR. MUDD: The stepped up campaign pressure brought this unguarded outburst from Gov. Clinton when he was told incorrectly that the Rev. Jesse Jackson had endorsed Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. Clinton was awaiting a television interview and apparently was not aware he was being videotaped.

GOV. BILL CLINTON: [Wednesday] It's an outrage. It's a dirty, double crossing, back stabbing thing to do, for him to do this. For me to hear this on a television program is an act of absolute dishonor to everything he has bragged about. He has gushed to me about trust and trust and trust, and it's a back stabbing thing to do.

SEN. TOM HARKIN, Democratic Presidential Candidate: [Thursday] It seems to me here's an individual who sort of flies off the handle and reacts vehemently to a rumor. I don't know if that's the kind of leader of America that we want.

MR. MUDD: Well, Mark, do we all agree, David, that the great campaign of 1992 of high purpose and seriousness melted in the snows in New Hampshire?

MR. SHIELDS: It seems to have, Roger. Bob Kerrey won a big comeback victory in South Dakota this weekend, 40 percent of the vote against the whole field, and then proceeded to go down South and use this 15 seconds or 15 minutes in the spotlight to raise the question about Bill Clinton's fitness based upon his past non- military service. And rather than making the case why he, Kerrey, ought to be President, he made the case it seemed instead why Clinton shouldn't be. And that -- and Clinton followed suit. Clinton went after Tsongas as being cold hearted and cold blooded, a compassionless wretch, and Tsongas came back and said since when has Bill Clinton become the house expert on courage, so it, those aren't great issues, but it's pretty tough stuff.

MR. MUDD: What do you make of that outburst that we just saw from Gov. Clinton? Was that justifiable under the circumstances? What's it tell you about Clinton?

MR. GERGEN: Nothing very pleasant.

MR. MUDD: It doesn't?

MR. GERGEN: I think it was unfortunate. I think we've entered the testosterone phase of the campaign, Roger. We've got all these 21 primaries coming up in the next couple of weeks, a rich load of delegates, over 2,000 delegates, are going to be selected. Each one of these Democrats is now bashing one of the other guys. At least most of them are taking that initiative. Both certainly Kerrey and Clinton have this week because they want to get through this to get maximized if they can. In a couple of cases they want to see if they can just survive through the Southern primaries. In Bill Clinton's case, he wants to see if he can kill off at least one or two of the other candidates so he can essentially wrap this thing up. In Bill Clinton's case I think this film clip with Jesse Jackson showed him at a moment of temper that I think was most unfortunate for him. I think people saw a side of him that they didn't, perhaps didn't know was there, and it suggests very poor staff work. It suggests he's got a very short fuse. I think the truth of the matter is -- I saw him up in New Hampshire a couple of weeks ago and he was so wound up, uncharacteristically, I think he's tired, I think he feels under assault, I think he's angry at his opponents, he's angry at the press for the way he's been treated and he's really, he's tight, and so when somebody, this got to him, he just lashed out and he let some of that emotion go.

MR. MUDD: So if he doesn't win in Georgia, Mark, is he all through?

MR. SHIELDS: He, Bill Clinton?

MR. MUDD: Yeah.

MR. SHIELDS: Yeah. But I don't know anybody who doesn't expect him to win in Georgia.

MR. MUDD: That's a given now.

MR. SHIELDS: I think it seems to be a given. He's got the entire political establishment behind him, overwhelmingly, black and white, the governor, the mayor of Atlanta, Maynard Jackson, former Mayor Andy Young, Governor Zel Miller, Senator Sam Nunn, I mean, John Lois, the enormously respected Congressman and leader of the civil rights movement. But you see, I think David's right about the way he lashed out. He lashed out at Paul Tsongas and somebody said, why, you know, you see some numbers that showed Tsongas moving. You may very well have seen some poll numbers that showed Tsongas in pretty good shape. But he said Tsongas has had a free ride. He's had a free ride. He's been able to find himself. And this is a guy, Bill Clinton, who's been fending off allegations, accusations, charges, and hasn't been able -- I mean, it's been a long time since he's been able to define himself in terms of his own electability and his own special message. He's been very much on the defensive.

MR. MUDD: Now, let me ask you about Kerrey. Kerrey dismissed the Clinton draft issue as a non-issue when it first came up. Now he's dusted it off. Does that, does Kerry run the risk now of being seen as that desperate?

MR. GERGEN: Well, here's his thing. You're right. He not only brushed off the draft issue, remember, he suspended Harrison Hickman, his pollster, before the New Hampshire primary for raising the issue to reporters. And now he's turned round and used it. Clearly, what he's trying to do is, if Mark is right, Bill Clinton's going to win Georgia, but it's very important from Kerrey's point of view to hold that margin down, if they can hold Clinton under 50, if they can hold him down in the 40's somewhere to make it look like a small win, Kerrey can come in second there, he could then go on to the other Southern primaries. He wants to set himself up as the alternative to Bill Clinton as opposed to Paul Tsongas. If he comes in third, below Tsongas in Georgia, and then winds up third in these other Southern primaries, he's basically finished.

MR. MUDD: Where does Tsongas fit into all this, Mark?

MR. SHIELDS: I think Paul Tsongas is betting the rent money on Maryland. He's got to win outside of New England. He had a dismal showing in South Dakota in spite of the fact it was his wife's home state and he had his father-in-law cut a television spot for him. And I think he's just got to show some strength, only a slight dissent on the Kerrey strategy. I think that Kerrey made a mistake, quite frankly. I think if Kerrey were thinking, the point about going the high road in New Hampshire by saying I'm not going to discuss this and then coming down and going right, directly at Bill Clinton's soft under belly on this military service question, I think does raise questions about just how consistent he has been on the offensive. I think Kerrey's best bet was to go to Illinois, to Michigan, and to make this, Bill Clinton's home territory, this is his home field down South, and say in Illinois and Michigan, look, any Democrat to be elected President of the United States has to carry the big industrial states. In other words, he has to get the test out in front of him rather than try to play catch-up all down South.

MR. GERGEN: We're in a situation, Roger, where Tsongas is a "must win" in Maryland. Clinton's in a "must win" in Georgia this next Tuesday. In Colorado, the third state to hold a primary, Tsongas is now slightly ahead. And it's going to be, that's going to be a contested contest, but you see Bob Kerrey's in a situation where he's not at this time in a position to win any one of those three. He's got to do, in order to get some money for his campaign, he's not showing ads in the South very much right now because he's almost out of money. In order to get some money pumped back into this campaign, after winning in South Dakota, as he did so handsomely this week, he's got to come in second in a couple of things to get the money flowing again so he can get to Illinois and Michigan, and Mark's right about that.

MR. MUDD: Either one of you want to say a word about Harkin or Brown or just keep going?

MR. SHIELDS: No. Tom Harkin, I mean, Tom Harkin, you know, he's a spunky guy. He doesn't want to get out of the race, but any time you hear a fellow say we're going to cut back our operations to go lean and mean and target our opportunities, it's usually a halfway house to closing the whole thing down.

MR. GERGEN: One quick thing on that. Excuse me.

MR. SHIELDS: And the other line you hear over and over again is reports of our demise are greatly exaggerated. When they start quoting Mark Twain, it's a pretty good sign that the campaign is in a little bit of trouble.

MR. MUDD: David.

MR. GERGEN: Harkin and Brown, even though they're hurting, could possibly take away some of the black vote Bill Clinton very much needs in the South, and that's another reason why this Jesse Jackson thing is dangerous for Bill Clinton because Bill Clinton very much needs that core vote in the South.

MR. MUDD: We need to go to Republicans. Give me a quick thumbnail of this past week on the Republican campaign. David.

MR. GERGEN: Roger, we ended up the Republican week with blood on the floor, the candidates diminished in stature, and a growing fear in the Republican Party, as they said in 1988, the Democrats won't be able to nominate anybody and the Republicans will nominate Bush and he'll lose.

MR. MUDD: Mark.

MR. SHIELDS: Well, there's an old maxim in politics. You can't beat somebody with nobody. In South Dakota, we almost had that impeached this past Tuesday where nobody, uncommitted, got almost a third of the vote against the President of the United States. Of course, uncommitted's also been a big favorite on the press bus so maybe that's the reason they did so well. But I mean it's a devastating rebuke on the President.

MR. MUDD: All right. Let's take a look now at the Republican thrust and counter thrust this week. It was an exchange of campaign barbs and also television commercials.

DAN QUAYLE: [Wednesday] Pat Buchanan is down here in Georgia and going around the South masquerading as a true conservative. A true conservative would have supported President George Bush in the Persian Gulf War. If you look at Pat Buchanan, he has embraced the foreign policy of George McGovern. His policy toward the Middle East is very much like Jesse Jackson's, and he has embraced the trade policies of Dick Gephardt. That is not being a true conservative.

PATRICK BUCHANAN, Republican Presidential Candidate: [Wednesday] Dan Quayle says I am not qualified to be President of the United States. How would he know? [laughter in audience] You know, I'm not going to go after Mr. Quayle for a variety of reasons. One, I don't want to be charged with child abuse. And secondly, I think Mr. Quayle is really an accessory after the fact in the, in the economic disaster which is the responsibility of his boss, George Bush.

GEN. P.X. KELLEY, Commandant, U.S. Marine Corp., ret.: [Bush Political Commercial] When Pat Buchanan opposed Desert Storm, it was a disappointment to all military people, a disappointment to all Americans who supported the Gulf War, and I took it personally. I served with many of the Marines who fought in Desert Storm. The last thing we need in the White House is an isolationist like Pat Buchanan. If he doesn't think America should lead the world, how can we trust him to lead America?

COMMERCIAL SPOKESMAN: [Buchanan Political Commercial] In the last three years, the Bush administration has invested our tax dollars in pornographic and blasphemous art too shocking to show. This so-called "art" has glorified homosexuality, exploited children, and perverted the image of Jesus Christ. Even after good people protested, Bush continued to fund this kind of art. Send Bush a message. We need a leader who will fight for what we believe in. Vote Pat Buchanan for President.

MR. MUDD: David, was that ad we just saw below the belt, so to speak?

MR. GERGEN: That was your choice of words, Roger, not mine.

MR. MUDD: Was it a low blow?

MR. GERGEN: Well, I think it was. I also think it may backfire on Pat Buchanan. The word out of folks in the South is it's, including some of the pollsters down there, is that it is so graphic, and although Pat Buchanan is quite proud of it, and has made that clear on the campaign bus the last 24 hours, people feel it just went too far and I, Pat Buchanan is doing well in Georgia though. Let's face that basic fact.

MR. MUDD: What is the Bush campaign doing to counter that, other than firing John Frohnmayer, the arts commission chairman?

MR. GERGEN: Well, they fired -- you know, Frohnmayer was going to be relieved of his job but when Pat Buchanan went on the attack last week, within 24 hours they fired him. That was from my light a sign of weakness, not strength on the part of the Bush White House. But I think Pat Buchanan, you have to say Pat Buchanan has accomplished one of the goals that conservatives wanted in this campaign, and that was to draw the Bush administration to the right. You saw that in the Frohnmayer firing, the Bush, the President's tough stand about vetoing the bill, the tax bill that the Democrats are fashioning on Capitol Hill. In addition, I think that the White House is very soon going to go into the courts and test the line item veto. This has been something the conservatives wanted for a long time. They first of all got a vote in Congress against the line item veto. Now they're going to say okay, let's make a test case. This is something Bob Dole was calling for back in 1988. The White House has resisted it. Now the President's going to do it.

MR. MUDD: Mark, the President's been saying he's three out of three, I guess you could say four out of four, New Hampshire, Maine, Iowa, South Dakota. Does that ring true to you?

MR. SHIELDS: I know it doesn't, Roger. The President is in trouble. They keep saying a win is a win is a win. When you get - - you can say Pat Buchanan did well in New Hampshire because he spent $2 million, 10 weeks, and there were six Democrats kicking George Bush every day on television, and he got 37 percent. Uncommitted got almost a third in South Dakota. So there's trouble. South Dakota doesn't have the economic problems that -- nor does Georgia. I mean, if Pat Buchanan is approaching a third, 40 percent down there, then it isn't good for the President. What we're seeing is that, we're not seeing any more kinder, gentler Pat that we saw up in New Hampshire. This is take no prisoners, go right after him, and George Bush is hard pressed to complain about negative commercials based upon his 1988 campaign. It's a little bit like Henry VIII complained about multiple wives. And I would have to say this about the Bush spot with P.X. Kelley, the former commandant, a Marine, and now a Washington lobbyist, and that is that war doesn't cut as an issue the way it did.

MR. MUDD: Why not?

MR. SHIELDS: Well, it's interesting. I think there's two factors. One is the Bush strategy has been pretty obvious from the beginning as "I won the war and the other guy's a bum," whoever the other guy happens to be, because you can't really point to great triumphs of the past four years. And the reality is that since the end of the war, all attention in this country has been focused domestically. We don't have a bogeyman anymore internationally since the end of the cold war and the nation's attention has returned to the home front. And in a strange way, George Bush's very success in the Persian Gulf, being resolute, being forceful, setting out his timetable, achieving it in a compressed period of time, works against him domestically; that he hasn't been able to do the same thing sort of bothers people, and wonders whether, in fact, he's really engaged domestically.

MR. GERGEN: Well, I would just add to that, Mark, it did not cut in New Hampshire. I think Mark is absolutely right about that. I think it may cut in the Persian Gulf War. It may cut in the President's favor. There is no question that the White House will use that unmercifully if Bill Clinton's the nominee of the Democratic Party. They're going to go straight at him with that question and I think under those kind of circumstances, Mark, yes, because of his -- they'll take the Vietnam War record and they'll take the Bush war record and they'll take the Persian Gulf War, et cetera. The importance of what's happening now, Roger, I think from the President's point of view is if Pat Buchanan can get 40 percent in Georgia next week, if he can draw some more blood, if it keeps him alive to go into the primaries on Super Tuesday, the following Tuesday, and then he's now spotted the State of Louisiana as a possible state where he can win, now, if he can do that, that keeps him alive to get into a state like Michigan, where there's a lot of unhappiness, of course, the GM decision this week, you know, they closed down the automobile plant and General Motors has a lot of old Wallace voters up there in Michigan, so you know, the point for Pat Buchanan is to stay in this race through California. The longer he stays in his stature is growing.

MR. MUDD: Final question. What is George Bush's problem with Ronald Reagan? No photo op out there in California. They wrapped the fence like they hired Cristo to drape it in brown paper so you couldn't see what was going on.

MR. SHIELDS: David, David knows both men a lot better than I do, but I mean it certainly is not a ringing endorsement. Just one little quick aside. The draft problems of Bill Clinton are a greater problem in the fall, David's right, than they are in the Democratic Primary. What are the problems?

MR. GERGEN: Well, I --

MR. MUDD: It's got to be quick.

MR. GERGEN: I think the truth is that Mrs. Reagan is not happy with the way the Reagans have been treated and there is some feeling on the part of the conservatives that the Reagan legacy has beentarnished during the Bush years. I do think that Ronald Reagan will support George Bush very vigorously in the fall.

MR. MUDD: Thank you, David Gergen, U.S. News, and Mark Shields, syndicated Columnist.

MR. SHIELDS: Thank you very much.

MR. GERGEN: Thank you, Roger.

MR. MacNeil: Thanks, Roger. And thank you for five years of superb work for the NewsHour. As you leave regular work with us to take up your new post at Princeton University, our warm, good wishes go with you. Still ahead on the NewsHour tonight, Iraq's Kurds a year after their rebellion. FOCUS - AGAINST ALL ODDS

MR. MacNeil: Next tonight an update on the Kurdish people of Iraq. A year ago, their unsuccessful rebellion against Saddam Hussein's government turned into a drama that captured the attention of the world as thousands became refugees. Many of the Iraqi Kurds now live in an internationally protected zone in Northern Iraq above the 36th Parallel. In addition, they've taken control of some territory South of that line. How long protection of the Kurds will last and how long they'll receive international aid is in question. Our coverage begins with a report from Kurdistan. The correspondent is William Dowell of Time Magazine.

WILLIAM DOWELL: Hundreds of thousands of Kurds have now moved back into camps like this one, effectively remaining refugees inside their own country. Many are unable to go back to their homes because their villages are still occupied by Iraqi troops. Despite the bitter cold in the last few weeks in what may be the worst winter to hit this area in 40 years, spirits are high here. The reason: A fierce uprising by Kurds last October managed to drive out the last remnants of Saddam's administration. Iraqi troops hastily pulled back to defensive positions just outside Kurdish lines. The retreat effectively cut Kurdistan off from the rest of Iraq and it left the Kurds in de facto control of their own territory. Although not officially recognized, Kurdistan is fast becoming at least a temporary reality. Paralyzed by the threat of U.S. retaliation, Saddam had hoped to starve the Kurds out by imposing an economic blockade. The blockade is hurting financially but no one seems ready to give in yet. As one Kurdish leader here puts it, "Kurds would rather eat stones than lose their freedom now." Sulaimaniya, the principal town in the area, even though Kurdistan is suffering from both U.N. sanctions and Saddam's blockade, the market is full. A few months ago, Saddam ordered Kurdistan's government employees to move South back to government- controlled territory. 75 percent refused and stayed behind to work with the Kurdish National Front, a loose alliance of eight Kurdish parties. The absence of Iraqi troops has made it possible for Western newsmen to see for the first time the full impact of Saddam's policy. This is the town of Kalidesa. It once housed about 50,000 people. The town was obliterated by Iraqi soldiers in less than two hours using charges of dynamite. Kalidesa's destruction was part of a program called the "On Fall," or "Spoils of War." Under the program, which began towards the end of the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, some 4,200 Kurdish towns and villages were destroyed. One hundred and eighty thousand people disappeared. This is the town of Hallabjah, which also had a population of over 50,000 people. The people living in Hallabjah still recalled a day in March 1988 when waves of Iraqi planes dropped mustard and nerve gas on the town center. Iraqi troops were afraid to come into the town afterwards because of the chemical weapons so they finished its destruction using artillery at a distance. "Hallabjah was our Hiroshima," a Kurd said sadly. Yet, the remarkable thing is that people have moved back into the city and are slowly rebuilding it. The Iraqi secret police headquarters in Sulaimaniya. The symbol is an eye imposed over the map of Iraq. Ten to twenty people were kept locked in narrow cells like this. When Kurds finally captured this prison after a 36 hour pitched battle last October, they found prisoners hanging dead from the stairway railings. One U.N. official who went into the prison just after it was liberated said it was terrifying to think that a human being could do these things to another human being. This room had padded walls to dampen the screams. Prisoners were hung by handcuffs from these hooks welded to this pipe in the ceiling. Then they were beaten, burned with cigarettes and tortured with electric shocks. Today, the prison has been taken over by refugees looking for shelter. The Kurds have been able to survive in spite of Saddam's blockade largely because of help from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The NHCR runs convoys of trucks carrying supplies to remote areas. UNHCR officers and other relief organizations were able to provide essential ingredients needed to build some 65,000 houses. The Kurds are not waiting for international guarantees in order to rebuild their lives. Whether they have much of a chance of keeping Saddam at a distance or not, they're determined to try. In a few weeks, the Kurdish Front plans to hold the area's first free elections to choose a parliament. The Kurds realize that genuine Democratic elections will give them a legitimacy that few of their neighbors possess. Another card the Kurds have up their sleeve is this truck traffic which passes through Kurdish-held territory. The trucks bring food to Iraq and on their return trip they carry gasoline and diesel fuel in huge metal tanks strapped to their chassis. A truck can carry a few thousand gallons of oil. One thousand to two thousand trucks can cross the border a day, moving up to a half million gallons of oil barred from sale by the U.N. Everyone knows that it's a flagrant violation of U.N. sanctions, but the trucks keep coming anyway. The Kurds let the traffic go through because it gives them a little bit of leverage in dealing with Saddam. Ultimately though, whether the 3.8 million people in Iraqi Kurdistan can hold out will depend on how much attention they get from the West. To make it, they'll need the U.N. to continue providing support and they'll need food and continued U.S. air power to guarantee that Saddam does not try to mount another frontal attack. At least for the moment, even Saddam seems ready to let the Kurds alone, if only because Saddam is convinced that the U.S. may actually try to finish the job it left undone at the end of the Gulf War. All of that spells an uneasy truce, at least for the time being. No one here doubts though that once he has an opening, Saddam will come back for revenge.

MR. MacNeil: That report from William Dowell of Time Magazine. Now we turn to two guests, both of whom recently returned from Iraq's Kurdistan. Andrew Whitley is the executive director of Middle East Watch, a human rights monitoring group based in New York. Dr. Najmaldin Karim is president of the Kurdish National Congress, a group which represents Kurds of diverse nationalities in the U.S. and Canada. Dr. Karim, watching that report, one gets a sense of the Kurds marking time, just waiting. What are they waiting for?

DR. KARIM: Well, the Kurds are essentially in a dilemma at this stage. Negotiation with the government of Baghdad has been frozen. And the Kurds are anxiously waiting to know what the exact intention of the United States and the allies are and also what the exact intention of the Turks are. The international force that's in Turkey, the allied forces that's based in Turkey, their time is going to expire and that's, the Kurds are facing a great anxiety as far as that party's concerned.

MR. MacNeil: Mr. Whitley, what do you see happening when the U.N. forces pull out of Iraq, of Kurdistan, which they're scheduled to do now at the end of June?

MR. WHITLEY: Well, the U.N. officials say privately they hope against hope that somehow they're going to be able to stay on longer, and the U.N. special rapporteur in Iraq, that's the envoy who is sent by the Secretary General to look into the human rights record, has made a recommendation that human rights monitors be sent to the area. That's being debated in Geneva at the moment so they hope that when the guards pull out that somehow some other people, some light U.N. presence will somehow continue.

MR. MacNeil: Would that require another decision of the Security Council for the U.N. presence, the high commissioner for refugees forces to stay there, or was that decided in Geneva?

MR. WHITLEY: For the monitors to go, that's decided in Geneva. For the UNHCR people, that would certainly have to be decided by the Security Council, and for a bilateral agreement between Baghdad and the U.N. there's a memorandum of understanding which is due to expire on June the 30th, and Iraq certainly doesn't want to renew it. It's up to them.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Karim, are you and your friends going to try and demand that the U.N. forces stay, or is that going to be your immediate object?

DR. KARIM: That's one of our immediate objects there. There are objects that we are trying to accomplish. The protection that the Kurds have now is down to Parallel 36, which excludes about 40 percent of Iraqi Kurdistan with the major cities of Kirkuk and Suliamaniyah excluded from these areas. There is a systematic violation of U.N. Resolution 688 regarding protection of the Kurds. There are about 800,000 Kurds from those areas that are displaced, they are not allowed to return to their homes, and we are asking the United Nations and the allied countries to take the leadership enforcing the 688 Resolution with the same vigor that they are going after Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.

MR. MacNeil: I'll come back to the weapons question in a moment because that's reached a bit of a head today as well. Are the Western countries listening, the United States and Britain and the others who provided so much aid when the Kurds were all refugees in the mountains, are they listening now to the pleas from people like Mr. Karim?

DR. KARIM: Britain is certainly listening. Masud Bazani, the leader of the major Kurdish party, the KDP, met with Prime Minister Major just a couple of days ago. And Britain has been giving quite a high profile to the issue of the Kurds. I think that they will be urging the United States behind the scenes to continue the agreement which keeps U.S. forces and allied forces generally in Turkey after the end of June.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Karim, what specifically do you want the United States to do now?

DR. KARIM: We're asking the United States for continued presence of the allied troops in Turkey and inside Iraqi Kurdistan for protection of the Kurds. We are asking the United States to push through the United Nations for a resolution to have the protection of the Kurds moved beyond Parallel 36 to include all of Iraqi Kurdistan.

MR. MacNeil: Meaning move it South, move that line South?

DR. KARIM: South, yes, to Parallel 34. We're also asking for clear political support for the Kurdish aspirations. There is an upcoming election in Kurdistan in April and this election is forced upon the Kurds because there is a vacuum in Kurdistan. The government of Iraq has abdicated its responsibilities towards the Kurds and towards the region. No salaries are being paid to the people. There is a strict economic embargo. The prices have quadrupled in the last two months since this embargo has been imposed. There is no fuel, no medicine, there is ever present danger that the government forces will attack the Kurds again. Actually in certain areas that we visited in Chung Chamal and Kifri you could see, you could even see the Iraqi tanks just about a couple of hundred meters away from the areas where Kurds control them and there is really no way to defend themselves against these forces should the international forces decide to withdraw the protection.

MR. MacNeil: Do you think that the United States still is hesitating in giving you the full support you want because the Bush administration still believes that any government which succeeds Saddam Hussein should be a coalition of Kurds and Sunis and Shiites and not a federal state broken up into ethnically and religiously, do you think that is still the U.S. policy, which it certainly was right after the war?

DR. KARIM: You know, I believe that you are right in that regard as far as the U.S. policy, but I think they could answer that question better, however, I want to make the point that the Kurds are asking for their rights within Iraq. A federated Iraq doesn't mean a separate independent Kurdistan. A federated Iraq still leaves Iraq intact and we believe that a federated Iraq with a pluralistic government that allows everybody free expression is less of a danger to the region and to Iraq, itself, than a government controlled by Saddam Hussein which can be a threat to everybody, including Iraq's neighbors.

MR. MacNeil: How do you read the American policy at the moment?

MR. WHITLEY: I think the American policy is concerned to keep Saddam Hussein off balance, to keep the pressure on him, to keep him guessing. I think ultimately though that they will not leave the Kurds in the lurch. I think for domestic, political reasons that President Bush cannot be seen to be abandoning the Kurds on June the 30th. And so probably there will be some intensive pressure on the Turks to renew that military agreement to allow those air force planes to continue over flying Northern Iraq.

MR. MacNeil: Let's turn to the confrontation that Saddam seems to be headed for with the Security Council by saying no today to apparently saying no to the demand that he comply with the cease-fire resolutions and destroy his ballistic missiles. How does that resistance by Saddam and this confrontation with the Security Council affect the Kurdish situation?

MR. WHITLEY: To think that only insofar as he is obviously interested in keeping a certain distance he wants to be able to make sure that he is able to build his domestic political base, he's not trying to get himself into a position in which he's boxed in, he wants to be able to have a certain freedom of maneuver, and I think as far as the Kurds are concerned, he would like simply to be able to keep the squeeze on them, keep this economic blockade on that area, not do anything provocative, but at the same time be able to rebuild his own domestic base, and he has to do that by continuing to be resisting the United Nations.

MR. MacNeil: Why? In order to show that he's strong enough to his own people or his own supporters to do that.

MR. WHITLEY: Yes.

MR. MacNeil: How do you read that, Dr. Karim? How does Saddam's resistance of the Security Council, to the Security Council affect your people's situation?

DR. KARIM: Well, I agree with what Mr. Whitley had said and I also want to add that as far as Saddam's aim is to show the Iraqi people that he is strong and to show the Kurdish people that he is strong and can deal with them because if he could stand up to the United Nations and the United States he could certainly stand up to the Kurds, and Saddam is playing very hard and trying very hard to divide the ranks among the Kurds, themselves, so he can succeed with his plans to force a watered-down version, autonomy on the Kurds, excluding about 40 percent of Kurdistan from where the Kurds, from where real Kurdistan is.

MR. MacNeil: Let me ask you each quickly the Bush administration has been quite open with its rhetoric about warnings to Saddam. Do you have the sense, with all your contacts, that some form of action is in preparation?

MR. WHITLEY: I think that they're trying to use the Saudis as their surrogates in the area. I think they're trying to bring the different elements of the Iraqi opposition together, both in an open and a covered way, through Saudi Arabia, and to be able to let them take the lead in the area. I didn't see any evidence of any covert action being planned or any signs of any exceptional military activity when I was there last week, but I do think that the Kurds are planning to stay there after June 30th and they're banking on the fact that something will turn up.

MR. MacNeil: Dr. Karim, do your people think that something is in the works against Saddam?

DR. KARIM: Well, during our journey to Kurdistan, our contact with the Kurdish leadership, we don't see any serious effort actually that's aimed towards the Kurds. And as far as the intention of the U.S., whether there's a covert action or not, of course, we are not aware of that, as you might know.

MR. MacNeil: Of course.

DR. KARIM: But --

MR. MacNeil: Can you finish your thought very quickly. We have to go.

DR. KARIM: As far as the intention of the U.S. government is concerned, we believe that the U.S. government should pay more attention to the Kurdish leadership and the Kurdish people in Iraq because the most organized group of people in Iraq are the Kurds.

MR. MacNeil: Okay.

DR. KARIM: And without the Kurds, nothing can be accomplished against Saddam Hussein.

MR. MacNeil: Thank you very much, Dr. Karim and Mr. Whitley. RECAP

MS. WOODRUFF: Again, the major stories of this Friday, Iraq defied a United Nations deadline for the destruction of some SCUD missile facilities, the U.S. economy grew faster than previously thought in the last three months of 1991. The Gross Domestic Product rose .8 percent. And a Michigan judge ruled today that Dr. Jack Kevorkian, the inventor of the so-called "suicide machine," should be tried for murder. Good night, Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Good night, Judy. That's the NewsHour tonight and we'll see you again Monday night. I'm Robert MacNeil. Good night.