The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: This is Election Day 2006. Riding on the results: the control of the Congress of the United States and all that goes with it, including possibly even the course of the war in Iraq.

VOTER: I`m as concerned and confused as everyone else about the war in Iraq.

VOTER: I try to look at the candidates and see where they stand and what they think, and that`s how I vote.

GEORGE W. BUSH, President of the United States: The Democrat approach comes down to this: The terrorists win and America loses.

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), House Minority Leader: Democrats want a new direction because we believe it`s important to take our country forward.

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), Arizona: We`ve done a lot of things right, and we`ve done some things wrong.

REP. HAROLD FORD (D), Candidate for Tennessee Senate: Do you think we can be headed in a better direction? And if you do, give me a chance to help lead us in that direction.

JIM LEHRER: We`ll have complete coverage on this special election edition of the NewsHour.

(BREAK)

JIM LEHRER: Good evening from Washington. I`m Jim Lehrer, and I welcome you to this NewsHour special edition.

What the voters decide today and what it all means is the story, of course. Going in, the polls and pundits said the Democrats will likely take control of the U.S. House of Representatives, with the U.S. Senate remaining majority Republican. But we shall see.

NewsHour correspondent Kwame Holman begins our coverage.

REP. JIM MORAN (D), Virginia: Jim Moran. Nice to see you. Thank you.

KWAME HOLMAN: Candidates got started early this Election Day...

REP. TOM DAVIS (D), Virginia: Thanks for voting.

KWAME HOLMAN: ... appearing at the crack of dawn...

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), New York: Good morning, good morning.

VOTER: You have my vote!

KWAME HOLMAN: ... for a last-minute push for votes. Leaving his polling place near his Crawford, Texas, ranch, President Bush, alongside the first lady, offered an appeal to all voters.

GEORGE W. BUSH, President of the United States: No matter what your party affiliation or if you don`t have a party affiliation, do your duty. Cast your ballot, and let your voice be heard.

KWAME HOLMAN: The big prize is majority control of the Congress; 33 Senate seats and all 435 House seats are to be decided.

SEN. RICK SANTORUM (R), Pennsylvania: I feel good about what we`ve accomplished, and I feel very, very confident that we`re going to surprise a lot of people tonight.

KWAME HOLMAN: But even this morning, many key races still were too close to call. Virginia Republican Senator George Allen appeared calm as he tossed a football with his supporters and potential voters at the polls.

SEN. GEORGE ALLEN (R), Virginia: There you go! All right, on to victory, team! Thank you all!

KWAME HOLMAN: He was in a tight re-election race against Democrat Jim Webb...

RALLY GROUP: Jim Webb! Jim Webb!

KWAME HOLMAN: ... whose supporters rallied around him at his polling center. Webb told them he hoped his hard work will pay off.

JIM WEBB (D), Candidate for Virginia Senate: This is in the hands of all the other voters.

KWAME HOLMAN: Today also was a day many voters tested out new electronic voting machines. About a third used new equipment.

GOV. ED RENDELL (D), Pennsylvania: I still can`t get used to it, because you used to have the sound of when you pulled the lever.

VOTER: Yes, there`s no click or anything.

GOV. ED RENDELL: Although this is much easier for...

KWAME HOLMAN: But in other states, it wasn`t so easy. Thousands of voters were forced to wait in long lines in Ohio because of computer glitches and human error.

VOTER: I got here early. It still took me 30 or 40 minutes to vote.

KWAME HOLMAN: Election officials in one Indiana county and one in Pennsylvania extended polling hours after the problems prevented them from opening on time.

KAREN WENGER, Indiana County Clerk: I think that we need to allow every voter that might not have been able to vote this morning a chance to go back after work.

KWAME HOLMAN: And in South Carolina, Governor Mark Sanford was turned away because he didn`t have proper identification.

GOV. MARK SANFORD (R), South Carolina: We`re going to vote here shortly. It just may take a little bit longer than first anticipated.

KWAME HOLMAN: But in Maryland, a state that experienced problems with electronic voting machines during its primary, officials said they had worked out most of the hiccups.

Another factor possibly affecting voter turnout: the weather. On the East Coast, it was clear for at least part of the day. Rain cut a sizable swathe across the nation, from Washington State to the Midwest, flooding some areas. Bad weather threatened voter turnout in several key races.

GOV. JENNIFER GRANHOLM (D), Michigan: Don`t let the rain deter you. This is a day when you`ve got to let your voice be heard.

KWAME HOLMAN: Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm of Michigan was trying to keep her job in one of the 36 gubernatorial races today, from Massachusetts to California. Meanwhile, the attention for most of the day focused on the House of Representatives, where the magic net gain number for Democrats to take over was 15.

JIM LEHRER: There had been predictions that voter turnout would be heavier than usual for a midterm election. Gwen Ifill is in suburban Philadelphia, where she`s been monitoring turnout there and elsewhere.

GWEN IFILL: Good evening, Jim.

It is a truism in American politics that no poll counts until Election Day. But for the candidates, they figure why leave the outcome to chance?

Election Day in Pennsylvania, where races for the U.S. House, Senate and statehouse all climaxed during the last 24 hours in a flurry of phone- calling, door-knocking and last-minute appeal.

CAMPAIGN ORGANIZER: All the persuasion is done. Right now, we`re trying to talk to our supporters to remind them the importance of voting on November 7th, Tuesday. If they don`t come, we`re not going to be successful. All of our work up to this point will be for naught.

CAMPAIGN ORGANIZER: Where you are canvassing today is our base. It`s the heart of who we`re going to pull out on Election Day.

GWEN IFILL: Party organizers, special interest groups, and community activists across the country are spending millions to get their people to the polls.

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: Hi. My name is Vera, and I`m calling on behalf of Congressman Curt Weldon.

GWEN IFILL: Just under 40 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in 2002. Driven by voter discontent over Washington and the war, both sides say that number is expected to rise.

The Republican Party has assembled a database called the Voter Vault for every big race this year.

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: We hit the state record in our country, Montgomery County. We did more outgoing phone calls than any county in the history of Pennsylvania.

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: I got the numbers for just our district; it was almost 6,000 calls.

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: Yes, we did...

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: Just our district.

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: We did 15,025 calls.

CAMPAIGN CALLER: Drumming up our support for Senator Rick Santorum and Lynn Swann for governor, and Representative Curt Weldon. And we really need your vote.

CAMPAIGN CALLER: ... next Tuesday, November 7th, is the day to vote.

GWEN IFILL: Democrats are relying more heavily on sympathetic interest groups, like organized labor, to do much the same thing.

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: We`re union members going today on a labor walk about the upcoming elections.

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: These are the candidates, Democratic (inaudible) thinking about pulling the big ticket Democrat, the big lever for Democrat.

CAMPAIGN CALLER: Hello, I`m a union member calling to remind you about today`s elections.

GWEN IFILL: And labor unions have pulled out their own high-tech device, what they call the "Barney Bus," an automated call center that makes tens of thousands of calls a day, focusing on Democratic households.

MATT BURNS, Spokesman, Pennsylvania Republican Party: We have people all over the commonwealth.

GWEN IFILL: Matt Burns works for the Republicans.

PATRICK EIDING, Philadelphia AFL-CIO: We had Clinton here for the whole day.

GWEN IFILL: Patrick Eiding runs Philadelphia`s AFL-CIO, which has endorsed Democratic candidates.

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: We`re out stumping for Republican ticket.

GWEN IFILL: When it comes to finding voters, they are opposite sides of the same coin. Each man claims his party has the edge, with thousands of paid and volunteer canvassers streaming into the state from across the nation.

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: These are people from Waco, Texas, who`ve come up to volunteer to help the senator.

LOIS MURPHY (D), Pennsylvania House Candidate: Who`s from Pennsylvania? There you go. There you go. So thank you all for coming. I know some people have come from far and some from near. I`m really grateful that you`re here today. As you probably know, this is one of the closest and most closely watched races in the nation. With your help, we`re going to win, and we`re going to surprise some people and win big.

PATRICK EIDING: Our final four -- meaning the final four days that we`ve been running around this state, especially in Pennsylvania and, I think, across the whole country -- we`re putting thousands and thousands of people on the street.

GWEN IFILL: Mark Greenfield came in Sunday from New York City, and this is not his first stop.

MATT GREENFIELD, Campaign Volunteer: I went to Connecticut yesterday to do something similar for Diane Farrell up in Connecticut, a House seat, as well, because I think it`s really important the Democrats take back the House. So I`m trying to do my part to help.

The last 96 hours are the most important part of an election campaign, so I feel like there`s nothing really that close in New York that I can affect on an national level.

GWEN IFILL: So I see bumper stickers here, "Law Enforcement for Santorum," "Racing Fans for Santorum," "Farmers for Santorum." Do each of those people get a different kind of approach?

MATT BURNS: They certainly may, like I said, you know, depending on what issue is important to them. And it`s not just Republicans, we just happen to do it better. But certainly we`re looking to tailor our message to those who are going to support our ticket based on a particular issue they may be interested in.

CAMPAIGN VOLUNTEER: Thank you very much. Great to see you.

CITIZEN: Take care now. All right. Bye-bye.

GWEN IFILL: Candidates walk a fine line searching for ways to energize their strongest supporters, often with slashing advertising...

TV AD NARRATOR: Jim Gerlach voted against (inaudible) the president to provide a plan for success. And Gerlach opposed a plan to bring our troops home.

TV AD NARRATOR: Lois Murphy doesn`t seem to mind taking money out of our pockets. No wonder she`s supported by every radical liberal organization in the country.

GWEN IFILL: ... without turning off other voters altogether.

PATRICK EIDING: I think it`s resonating with the average person.

GWEN IFILL: But sometimes "resonating" means people throw up their hands and stay home. How do you get -- how do you know that people who are angry will actually turn out to vote, instead of just saying "never mind"?

PATRICK EIDING: Well, I think that`s a job that we have. I mean, we`re concerned with that. We`re very concerned with that.

I`m concerned that tomorrow that people are disgusted with all the negative commercials that are on and those kinds of things that people just throw up their hands and say, "I`m not going to bother with either one of them." So our goal is to try to keep the message there.

GWEN IFILL: Are you targeting people who are undecided at this late stage or are you going for voters who you know will support you but who might otherwise stay home?

MATT BURNS: Well, you know, both. I mean, certainly, we want to make sure that people that we know are going to support our ticket turn out, but obviously this late in the election cycle you still have some folks that are undecided. We want every last vote. We want to turn out everybody we possibly can that is going to ultimately support the Republican ticket.

GWEN IFILL: Eiding says he`s put 8,000 union-affiliated workers in the streets this campaign season, knocking on 800,000 doors.

PATRICK EIDING: So we`re saying, you know, "Come on out, Republicans. Come on out, Democrats. Vote." We`d like to see the -- the higher the percentage of voters that come out on Election Day or tomorrow, I think we have a good shot at winning because of what this country is going through and where we are.

GWEN IFILL: Burns says he had 5,000 workers out in Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery Counties just this past weekend, part of what national Republicans call their 72-hour strategy, volunteers like Fred Conner and Tommy Goetz.

FRED CONNER, Republican Volunteer: Really, within the last week, I`d have to say that the tone has really changed, from what I`ve seen. I mean, maybe 100 calls a week and on average 50, 60 doors, maybe more on a Saturday. And just within the last two weeks, it seems that people are really now getting engaged.

TOMMY GOETZ, Republican Volunteer: I think it`s strategic. People see that common folk like ourselves are all together in this, and it`s like a team. It becomes a team to win, and I think that`s what`s going to happen.

GWEN IFILL: Voters went to the polls today to test the boasts. Is Tuesday going to be a long night?

MATT BURNS: Well, they`ve all been long nights lately.

PATRICK EIDING: I am really looking forward to it. You know, I`m like the basketball player who wants the ball. I want to go tomorrow. I`m ready to go for tomorrow. We`re ready.

GWEN IFILL: But in so many races today, the outcome is a jump ball.

CAMPAIGN ORGANIZER: You know, I know you guys are all strong Republicans, and so am I, but I don`t want to -- you know, it`s going back and forth in my mind with all the stuff going on.

GWEN IFILL: So many toss-ups, so little time.

JIM LEHRER: Yes. And, Gwen, greetings to you in Pennsylvania. What do we know? Do we know anything so far about what the turnout was, not only in your area, but elsewhere? Was this a big turnout day?

GWEN IFILL: Well, a lot of this is anecdotal, Jim, but we know here in Pennsylvania -- we`re in one of the three counties around Philadelphia which are critical -- and it was very heavy turnout.

But we also know that the secretaries of state in the state of Tennessee is saying twice the turnout he expected. We know in Connecticut they`re saying 65 percent turnout, which is the highest midterm turnout they`ve ever seen. We know that the secretary of state in Virginia is saying 65 percent turnout, where there obviously is another close Senate race under way.

So in those states where we know there are really competitive races, there`s been amazing turnout so far. And the rest of it we`re going to wait and see.

JIM LEHRER: What`s the conventional wisdom at this stage? Or is there a conventional wisdom that says, "All right, if there`s a big turnout in this state or a big turnout in that state, this favors the Democrat or it favors the Republican"? Have you got some wisdom that you can share with us on that?

GWEN IFILL: Well, Jim, as you know, conventional wisdom is terribly conventional and not always right. But I can tell you this much, that, for instance, in Tennessee, it rained in the eastern part of Tennessee today, which is Bob Corker, this Republican Senate candidate`s, home area. It was sunny in Memphis, where Harold Ford is from.

So the conventional wisdom would have it that more people would show up in the sunny days. But I actually read a political scientist today who says Republicans are more likely to show up when it rains, so go figure, conventional wisdom.

I do know, however, that when you look around the country and you see in a midterm election, where we`re talking about turnout in the 40 percent range normally, that when we begin to see turnout in the 65 percent range, something significant is going on.

JIM LEHRER: Yes. What about in the races you`ve been watching carefully there in Pennsylvania? Was there anything going in, where people said, "Hey, if there`s a big turnout in District A, that means that the Republican is probably going to hold his or her own or the opposite"? Anything there you can give us?

GWEN IFILL: Well, in the three races we`ve been watching most closely, the district we`re in right now is represented by Curt Weldon, who is the most endangered of the three incumbents. It looks like he, according to the latest polls, was really running an uphill battle against Joe Sestak, a retired admiral. A lot of Republicans have written that race off.

The other two races, the other two important races around this area were completely up in the air and completely dependent on turnout, which is why we saw, for instance, in the piece that so many of those candidates were the ones who were out there trying to bring in campaign workers from anywhere who would bring the voters out.

We`re waiting to see also what happens in a Senate race, because that also has a lot to do with Rick Santorum, the incumbent senator, and Bob Casey, the current state treasurer. That has also been a very competitive race, in which Rick Santorum has been running a very uphill battle.

He said today, as he went to vote, that he expected to win because there was a silent vote out there that would defy the polls. So that`s what candidates say on Election Day.

JIM LEHRER: Absolutely. One more question, and then I`ll leave you alone. You mentioned that there is a huge turnout in Virginia. What was the word going in as to who that might favor, particularly in the Senate race between incumbent Republican George Allen and Jim Webb, the Democratic challenger?

GWEN IFILL: Well, the word going in is that that would favor Jim Webb, in part because a lot of that high turnout seems to be coming from the northern part of Virginia, where there are many more Democrats, where there are many more liberal-leaning voters.

And George Allen, who has had kind of a star-crossed campaign, has been having a hard time getting his footing again. The polls going right into Election Day showed a very tight race, but any kind of huge turnout -- the conventional wisdom, once again, goes -- would favor the Democrats.

JIM LEHRER: OK. Gwen, thank you very much.

GWEN IFILL: Thanks, Jim.

JIM LEHRER: And speaking of wisdom, here now with their election analysis and wisdom are Shields and Ponnuru, syndicated columnist Mark Shields and National Review senior editor Ramesh Ponnuru.

All right, we are here now, Ramesh. This is finally Election Day. Now that we are here, does it have the feeling to you as being one of the most important midterm elections we`ve had in this country in many, many years?

RAMESH PONNURU, National Review Senior Editor: It sure does have that feeling. You know, when you look at the kind of numbers people are talking about that the Republicans could lose in the House and Senate, and you look at the history of it, this could be very easily the worst House election for the Republicans in 32 years, the worst Senate election in 20 years.

JIM LEHRER: How do you see it, Mark?

MARK SHIELDS, Syndicated Columnist: I see it exactly the same as Ramesh does, Jim. I think it`s -- I mean, the big turnout, I think generally speaking, has to help the Democrats.

JIM LEHRER: Why?

MARK SHIELDS: Because I think it`s one that`s fueled by anger, and I think it`s one that -- what Democrats were worried about was, would that be translated, especially independent voters? If you`re getting that size turnout, it means that independents are participating in considerable numbers.

And independents are the swing group in this election. They went 7 points for George Bush and the Republicans by 7 points in 2004 against John Kerry. And right now, all the polls -- even the ones that have showed the race tightening overall -- have still showed the independents trending Democratic, sometimes by a margin of 2-to-1, but almost always in high double digits. And if that`s the case, then it`s not good.

I mean, if you just get Republicans and Democrats turning out, the Democrats are going to vote Democrat and the Republicans are going to vote Republican, but the independents are a real problem for the Republicans this year.

JIM LEHRER: Do you see it the same way, Ramesh? Particularly, you know, going in, there were a lot of people who were saying, "Oh, well, the Republicans have the best turnout, Election Day turnout machine there is, much better than the Democrats have always done in the past." Do you agree that that`s less of an issue this time and the independents are more important?

RAMESH PONNURU: Well, in the 2004 election, a lot of what we thought we knew about turnout turned out not to be true. We all thought that higher turnout would benefit John Kerry, and it didn`t because -- although, in fact, Kerry had more votes than any previous presidential candidate, George W. Bush had even more.

The question, I think, for the Republican, the vaunted Republican turnout machine is -- now, this is not simply a mechanical process -- can you get Republicans actually excited enough about this crop of people in this year to turn out and vote?

JIM LEHRER: And it was mostly a defensive strategy, wasn`t that this time? "Hey, you`ve got to be careful here, because the Democrats could take over, and look how terrible that would be for the country." Wasn`t that really the message for the Republicans to get their folks out?

RAMESH PONNURU: Well, there was a fair amount of that in 2004, as well.

JIM LEHRER: Sure.

RAMESH PONNURU: But, yes, I mean, all through the year, what the Republican message was, was "This isn`t a referendum on how well you think things are going in Iraq or on what you think of President Bush; this is a choice between two different sets of people." And so we have to accentuate the negative on the Democratic side.

JIM LEHRER: Of course, the Democrats were saying, hey, just the opposite. They were saying today -- and leading up -- that, if you want the country -- the course changed in Iraq and elsewhere, you`ve got to go out there and vote.

MARK SHIELDS: You`ve got to go out. And the states that Gwen was talking about -- Pennsylvania and Connecticut, in particular -- those are states that George W. Bush did not set foot in. I don`t think he was in that time zone.

The president ended the campaign, I found, in Kansas, Nebraska, I mean, two of the reddest of red states, trying to save embattled and endangered Republican candidates for Congress in districts that he had carried, in most cases, by 20 points himself in 2004.

And he ended up Pensacola, Florida, at a rally, where miraculously Charlie Crist, the Republican candidate favored to win and succeed Jeb Bush as the Republican governor of Florida, miraculously remembered between the time he accepted the invitation to be with the president that he had a pressing appointment in Palm Beach. So the president was left to stand there endorsing Katherine Harris, the one person whom he had tried to get off the ticket in 2006.

JIM LEHRER: She wasn`t allowed on the stage. She had to sit in the stands.

MARK SHIELDS: She had to sit in the stand...

(CROSSTALK)

MARK SHIELDS: ... after giving up her political career in 2000 to save George Bush`s candidacy.

JIM LEHRER: All right. Well, don`t go away, gentlemen.

Voter turnout, as we have said, was expected to be especially brisk in Tennessee -- and as Gwen said, it has been -- and that`s for a race that could determine control of the Senate. Ray Suarez has that.

RAY SUAREZ: The Senate seat in Tennessee is being vacated by Majority Leader Bill Frist, who`s retiring. Hoping to fill the vacancy are two experienced candidates running statewide for the first time. Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, a Republican, is running against Memphis Congressman Harold Ford, a Democrat. If elected, Ford would become the first black senator from a southern state since Reconstruction.

Joining us now with the latest on voter turnout in Tennessee is Otis Sanford, managing editor of the Memphis Commercial Appeal.

And, Otis, were Tennessee polling places busy places today?

OTIS SANFORD, Memphis Commercial Appeal: Good afternoon. They were pretty busy today. I talked to an official at the Shelby County Election Commission just before I went on, and the projection is that voter turnout will be pretty high for a non-presidential race today.

RAY SUAREZ: Now, Tennessee also allows early voting. Did a lot of Tennesseans take advantage of that, as well?

OTIS SANFORD: Oh, absolutely. As a matter of fact, they set a record for early voting, somewhere in the neighborhood of 860,000-some people voted early.

The projections in Shelby County for the total turnout may approach 50 percent, and that would be extremely high for an off-presidential election year. By comparison, in 2002, the turnout locally was about 41 percent. So it`s pretty high today, but it still won`t get the presidential numbers that were garnered in 2004.

RAY SUAREZ: Was the profile discernibly different at all between eastern Tennessee, where Bob Corker is from, and western Tennessee, where Harold Ford is from?

OTIS SANFORD: Well, I don`t have any specific numbers there. I do know -- I think Gwen mentioned it earlier -- that it was raining today in east Tennessee. It`s hard for me to determine right now what impact that had.

It was cloudy here in Memphis, but it was not raining, and I think that helped the vote a little bit. But I think the projections are that voter turnout will be pretty high across the state, but still not reaching presidential numbers from 2004.

RAY SUAREZ: Are Tennesseans experienced ticket-splitters? I ask because your Democratic governor is running for re-election today and favored to win, and I`m wondering if that benefits Harold Ford at all.

OTIS SANFORD: Well, I think there will be a little bit of a bump for Harold today. Phil Bredesen is a pretty popular governor. The projections are that he will win very heavily.

And so, yes, I mean, when you look at it from that standpoint, yes, there are some ticket-splitters in the state. You have to look at the fact, though, that, in elections for president and for the U.S. Senate, a Democrat hasn`t won in Tennessee since 1990. So that`s an interesting fact to put out there, but Bredesen is a very popular governor, and he has been solidly supporting Congressman Ford throughout the campaign.

RAY SUAREZ: And I`m wondering, when I looked at the polls, which I checked regularly all through these last several weeks, Harold Ford was ahead in many polls until just recently. Was there an identifiable event, a week, something that happened to change the momentum of the campaign for either candidate?

OTIS SANFORD: Well, I think there were a couple of factors here. Heavy advertising by Bob Corker and also the Republican committee, a lot of it negative toward Congressman Ford, I think it took its toll on the congressman.

Also, there may have been a couple of missteps, people perceived as missteps by the congressman. The confrontation back on October 20th here in Memphis at a Corker press conference, comments that Congressman Ford made, the God reference, about a week or so ago.

Those things, I think, maybe took a little bit of a toll on the congressman. Of course, the polls that came out last week, including one that we commissioned with the Chattanooga Times Free Press, showed that Bob Corker was well ahead, and then a Gallup poll over the weekend said the race was much closer. But, yes, there were a couple of events, primarily fueled though by very heavy negative advertising against Congressman Ford that I think gave him a little bit of a stumble there at the end.

RAY SUAREZ: Otis Sanford of the Memphis Commercial Appeal, thanks for joining us.

OTIS SANFORD: Thank you.

JIM LEHRER: Now, for an update on other tight election races around the country, and we go to Margaret Warner for that.

MARGARET WARNER: It`s too early for results -- polls have closed completely in only one state, Kentucky -- but even the earliest partial returns will be pored over for what they tell us about the larger picture.

For a guide on what to look for in the hours ahead, we`re joined by Chris Cillizza from WashingtonPost.com. He`s monitoring election developments in the Post`s newsroom.

So, Chris, set the stage for us for the night ahead. When and from which states are we going to start getting early returns in races that have the potential to flip control of one or both houses?

CHRIS CILLIZZA, The Washington Post: Right. Well, the good news for early-to-bedders like myself is that I actually think we`re going to get information relatively early. A lot of these races are clumped on the East Coast.

You`ve got Kentucky; you`ve got Indiana. Polls have already closed in places in both of those states, in the eastern part of those states. You`ve got New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania. All those places have very competitive House races.

And I think we`re going to have a sense -- we may not have Democrats over 15 seats. They may not pick up the majority. But I think we might see them close. And if we see them close, I think it`s going to be a real leading indicator that what happens sort of west of the Mississippi is going to follow along, then Democrats indeed are going to take back the House.

MARGARET WARNER: All right, well, help our viewers follow along. Which of these early reporting races will you be particularly looking at to get a sense of how the night may unfold?

CHRIS CILLIZZA: Right, well, let me give you two. The first one is in southern Indiana. It`s Indiana`s 9th District. It`s a district held by a guy named Mike Sodrel, a Republican. He`s being challenged by Baron Hill, a Democrat, who held this seat from 1998 until 2004.

This is a race that neither national party is willing to say they`re going to win or lose. Usually by the end, this last 24 hours, they`ll sort of say to you privately, "That one doesn`t look great," or, "Oh, that one looks great for us." Both sides say it`s going to be very close.

So why are we watching Indiana 9? Because in the 2nd District of Indiana and the 8th District of Indiana, both of those seats are Republican-held and look likely to flip over to Democrats. If Indiana 9 goes that way, too, you`re talking about Democrats being 20 percent of the way to that 15-seat majority in one state alone. So that`s our first one.

Our second one is in Kentucky`s 4th District. Northern Kentucky extremely conservative. President Bush carried this district with almost 60 percent of the vote in 2004. We`ve another rematch. We`ve got the Republican Congressman Geoff Davis running against the former Democratic Congressman Ken Lucas.

This is a seat that Republicans by right should have in any kind of neutral election year. This is not a neutral election year, at least it looks that way in the early going. So we`re going to watch there. If Ken Lucas winds up on top, I think it`s going to tell us a lot that Democrats are headed for a very good night.

MARGARET WARNER: Now, Kentucky is another state in which there are three hot House races. Where does the one you chose stack up next to the other two, in terms of potential for flipping?

CHRIS CILLIZZA: Right. The 4th has been the one that`s been the most sort of focused on throughout. There`s one just to the south, in the Louisville area, the 3rd Congressional District, which is going to be another good bellwether. It`s Anne Northup. She`s held the seat since 1996. But it is a good Democratic seat, carried by both John Kerry in 2004 and Al Gore in 2000.

So, if there is a wave sweeping, it might well wash Anne Northup out. Again, in a neutral election year, she doesn`t lose.

Now, if we`re talking about Democratic gains of 35, 40, even larger, look to Kentucky`s 2nd District. Ron Lewis holds that seat, a Republican. It`s a very conservative seat. The Democrats have fielded a quality candidate, a conservative former state representative named Mike Weaver. If that seat goes, we`re not going to be debating whether Democrats hold the House -- whether Republicans hold the House or not. It will be how many seats the Democrats are going to add to their majority.

MARGARET WARNER: All right now, what about the Senate?

CHRIS CILLIZZA: The Senate similarly is largely congregated sort of in the Midwest and on the East Coast. I think one of the really important ones, an 8:00 closing time, is close to where I am, Virginia, where Senator George Allen the Republican is running against the former Navy Secretary Jim Webb.

Republicans are pessimistic about this race in the last 24 hours; Democrats are optimistic. Now, sometimes that`s just a gut feeling and it doesn`t wind up being reflected in polls, but I think sometimes that sends us a signal.

If Democrats want to take back the Senate, this is a seat they absolutely must have. They must beat George Allen. Remember, they need to essentially run the table, win almost every competitive race that is currently held by a Republican, if they want to pick up the six seats they need to win back control.

MARGARET WARNER: Now, we hear a lot about exit polling. And they have been exit polling -- there has been exit polling done in the states where there are hot Senate races. What can you tell us about what we`re learning about just the voter attitudes, people who voted today?

CHRIS CILLIZZA: Well, let me make one caveat about exit polling beforehand. Around this time in 2004, we were talking about President John Kerry. Now, it obviously didn`t work out that way. The exit polling seemed to show that John Kerry was going to win this race. It flipped around; it was not the case.

What are we seeing right now? It looks pretty good for Democrats. The early indications are that this is an electorate that is deeply unhappy about the direction of the country, deeply unhappy about the way Congress has handled their job. So it looks good for Democrats.

But again, remember, these exit polls -- these are simply interviews with voters after they leave the polling place. This is somewhat scientific, but do not substitute this for actual voting results. That`s the only way we`re going to be able to draw real conclusions is when we see these votes being counted.

MARGARET WARNER: And, finally, we are going to have some of the networks or the Associated Press "calling races," quote, unquote. What will those calls be based on? Is it real returns? Is it exit polling or a combo?

CHRIS CILLIZZA: What they do is they have people much smarter than myself who sit and watch these results, the actual data. And they know that, in certain counties, a Republican or a Democrat must win a certain percentage of the vote in order to have a chance.

So if there`s a very Republican county in one of these House districts where the Republican candidate drastically underperforms, they know that, and they add that into a calculation. And it`s a formula by which they add up sort of the county performance, what was expected and what the candidate actually got. And then they tabulate and they call those races.

So, again, that`s based on actual data. It`s based somewhat on projections. They do not wait until every single vote is counted, but it reaches a point of critical mass where the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate simply can`t win unless they get a certain number of votes in a certain area. So that`s what they`re looking at right now.

MARGARET WARNER: Chris Cillizza of the WashingtonPost.com, we`ll be watching. Thanks.

CHRIS CILLIZZA: Thanks, Margaret.

JIM LEHRER: Yes, and then once again to Mark Shields and Ramesh Ponnuru.

Mark, first of all, do you agree with Chris that the Virginia Senate race -- the polls close at 8:00; that`s still, well, an hour-and-a-half away -- but do you agree that that`s key to this, if the Democrats are going to take control of the Senate?

MARK SHIELDS: I do, Jim. I think that -- and I think it`s fascinating that, right in the Washington metropolitan area, just within the sound of our voice, we have two states that are totally at odds with all the conventional wisdom that you talked to Gwen about earlier.

Maryland, which is one of the bluest of blue states, that was one of the six states that Jimmy Carter carried against Ronald Reagan in Reagan`s sweep in 1980, Ben Cardin, the Democratic congressman, is fighting for his life against Michael Steele, the Republican lieutenant governor who`s an African-American.

And in Virginia, George Allen, this was supposed to be a warm-up. This was the Grapefruit League for him. He was just going to go through the motions and onto Iowa and New Hampshire to be the Reagan-esque challenger for 2008 for the Republican nomination. Those plans have been put seriously on hold, if not in the deep freeze.

JIM LEHRER: How do you feel about the importance of the Virginia race, Ramesh?

RAMESH PONNURU: Well, I think that Chris was right, that the Democrats -- you know, because they`re five seats down, and they really have to gain six seats, because Cheney is the tie-breaker in the Senate, in order to take the Senate. So they face extremely long odds. They need a real national wave that takes them over the top in places like Virginia and Tennessee.

JIM LEHRER: Yes. What about what he said about the House races? He began with this southern Indiana district, and then he mentioned a couple in Kentucky. And what would you add or subtract from that?

RAMESH PONNURU: Well, I think that those -- the Kentucky and Indiana races -- are going to be important. It`s funny how many of these races are concentrated in just a few states: Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky. You sort of have the ingredients for a Democratic takeover of the House from just those states right there.

And one of the things that`s going on here isn`t just you`ve got a national wave against the Republican Party, but you also have a fairly smart tactic by the Democratic Party to run socially conservative candidates in a lot of these places.

In Indiana, they`re running people like Brad Ellsworth. They`ve running...

MARK SHIELDS: The sheriff, yes.

RAMESH PONNURU: Right. They`ve run social conservative like Heath Shuler. Weaver was mentioned. This is something that the Democrats have been a little bit too rigid to do in the past. And we`re seeing tonight that their ability to run those social conservative candidates may have a big pay-off.

JIM LEHRER: Do you agree with that?

MARK SHIELDS: I do. I think that the Democrats, you know, get tired of losing and going through the check-off list where you pass the 13 key questions...

JIM LEHRER: The liberal check-off list?

MARK SHIELDS: Yes, the liberal wish list, and then you get 41 percent on Election Day, and they`d like to get 51 percent. And I don`t think there`s any question.

I mean, Jim Webb in Virginia, the Democratic nominee for the Senate, is a perfect example of that. I mean, Jim Webb, who not only was Ronald Reagan`s secretary of the Navy, but did not support Bill Clinton for president.

JIM LEHRER: In fact, said some bad things about Bill Clinton.

MARK SHIELDS: Said some rather unpleasant, uncharitable things about the president who, by the way, has buried the hatchet and come back in and campaigned strenuously for him.

But at the same time, I mean, he`s pro-gun. He`s pro-hunter. He`s proud of his rural roots and somewhat skeptical, if not disdainful, of many of the sort of the urban, liberal, Democratic activists or activism, I should say, because the activists, quite frankly, are supporting him.

JIM LEHRER: Yes, yes. OK. Thank you. And we`ll be back.

Now, along with predictions of heavy voter turnout have come warnings of problems at polling places. And for more on that, we go once again to Ray Suarez.

RAY SUAREZ: Lessons learned from recent elections supposedly had election officials prepared to handle problems at the polls this year, everything from malfunctioning voting machines to registered voters being barred from going ahead and casting their vote. Doug Chapin is director of ElectionLine.org, a nonpartisan organization that`s tracking voting problems across the country, and he joins me now.

We heard earlier in the program that one out of three voters were working with new equipment today.

DOUG CHAPIN, Director, ElectionLine.org: It`s staggering the amount of change we`ve seen in this country. The presidential election of 2000 and the resulting Help America Vote Act of 2002 unleashed, really, a tidal wave of change in the way we conduct elections around this country. And one facet of that is the degree of change we`re seeing in election equipment across the country.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, even with the primary season as a shakeout, were there a lot of technical problems today?

DOUG CHAPIN: There were lots of problems today: machines that didn`t start properly in Indiana; poll workers who had trouble getting them started in Indiana and Ohio; activator machines in Utah that had trouble starting up access cards; widespread problems, none of them really big problems, but still fairly widespread.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, those are the kinds of problems that are in evidence before the voter even walks up to the booth to cast their vote. Were people having trouble using the equipment when they were trying to cast their vote?

DOUG CHAPIN: There were some allegations. In New Jersey, there were voters -- Republican voters -- who said that, when they walked up to the machines, that the votes were already preset for Democratic Senate candidate Robert Menendez.

And they asked the attorney general`s office to come check that out. The attorney general did dispatch observers, haven`t heard yet whether or not they`ve been able to confirm that. There have been problems throughout the day.

RAY SUAREZ: Now, with the intelligence coming in from around the country to your site, were those problems able to be fixed and people go ahead and cast their ballot, or did some places have to move to back-up systems?

DOUG CHAPIN: By and large, they were fixable. There were places that needed to go to back-up ballots, Pennsylvania among them. The biggest problem probably that we`ve seen today is in the state of Colorado, specifically in Denver, where Denver moved to experiment with these vote centers, where any voter in Denver County could vote at any of the vote centers in Denver County.

A combination of power failures, machine breakdowns, and long lines has created a real problem in Denver that the courts are still trying to work their way out of.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, you mentioned the courts. Are there places where one side or the other has run into petition that polling places stay open later?

DOUG CHAPIN: They have, and we`ve already seen polling hours extended in Delaware County, Indiana, for example, where machines didn`t start this morning because they were allegedly poorly programmed. The court in Denver has actually rejected the initial petition to extend polling hours, claiming that she doesn`t have the authority to do so. We may see more activity on that before polls close out there.

RAY SUAREZ: Along with the new machines, are there new laws in force, with the kind of documentation you need, the kind of registration card you might need?

DOUG CHAPIN: There are, and that was really the other breed of problems we were watching for today. The state of Indiana has the most strict voter identification law in the nation. They require photo identification at the polls. And so we were going to be watching Indiana to see whether or not that created the kind of widespread disenfranchisement that some I.D. opponents identify.

The same problem in Arizona. There were allegations that the state`s new I.D. law, which requests but does not require photo I.D., would also disenfranchise voters. So far we`re not seeing those problems.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, if you do, I mean, the polls are still open in a lot of places in America, just about everywhere right now. If you get to your polling place and things aren`t as they should be, what`s the best advice you can give people?

DOUG CHAPIN: The best advice is ask questions. Get a poll worker to help you. The worst thing you can do is leave a polling place because you`ve had a problem with your vote.

There are people outside armed with cell phones with lawyers on speed dial, but really the only people who can help you get that vote cast are poll workers and election officials with influence inside the precinct.

RAY SUAREZ: Doug Chapin, thanks for being with us.

DOUG CHAPIN: My pleasure.

JIM LEHRER: And once more to Mark Shields and Ramesh Ponnuru.

Ramesh, are there more problems with voting, the process of voting, than there have ever been before in our country? Or is the suspicion greater and we`re just more cognizant of it and we`re being more careful about it?

RAMESH PONNURU: Well, I think it`s a little bit of both. I think that the transition from paper to electronic voting has not exactly been smooth.

But at the same time, I think there`s a quicker resort to litigation than there may have been in the past, especially after 2000, when the presidency was really decided, some would say, in courtrooms. We`ve already had skirmishes in Tennessee over whether voting will be extended a few more hours. And I imagine we`re going to see more litigation before this election`s through.

JIM LEHRER: You`re old enough, Mr. Shields...

MARK SHIELDS: Yes, I am, Jim.

JIM LEHRER: ... to put what`s happening now into some kind of historical context about, through the years, what the suspicions and what the realities were about the people stealing the elections and fooling with the results one way or another. Bring us up to date.

MARK SHIELDS: Well, women`s suffrage is what fouled the whole thing up, Jim. You know, all the elections...

(CROSSTALK)

JIM LEHRER: Yes, right, right, right. OK, start a little later than that.

MARK SHIELDS: ... all the elections were great. I think the closeness of our politics has made people far more sensitive, far more aware. It`s something that eludes me, though.

I can`t understand in something this important why it isn`t nationalized, I mean, why there isn`t a single national standard, and it shouldn`t, you know, vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. And we do electronic scanners.

I voted today, and I went in and voted. And it was good. There were no problems with the machine. The people were very nice and helpful, even for the older folks like myself.

But as I watched out, I said to my wife, I said, "It`s really strange that we don`t have a receipt that we did vote, I mean, some little piece of paper." You know, we`ll get it from an ATM machine. It tells you how much -- what your balance is and all the -- just to list what voter you were and the precinct, this or that, so that you had a record of it.

I mean, because I think -- there is a suspicion, there is a skepticism, and there has been enough tampering that that fuels it and keeps it alive.

JIM LEHRER: But do you think it`s real, I mean, that people should be alert to this, that people really are out there trying to steal elections?

MARK SHIELDS: I think Jim, I think we had reports today of intimidation of people being told that, if they showed up to vote, that they would be arrested. I mean, things like this were going into minority communities in Colorado and elsewhere.

So, you know, I think that -- I mean, I think elections are that important that anybody who tampers in any way ought to be facing hard federal time. I really do. And, you know, I just think it`s -- and there ought to be accountability for it. We don`t know who the election boards are or whether they`re appointed, whether they`re the brother-in-law of the county commissioner, or whoever it is.

JIM LEHRER: Sure.

What do you think about that, Ramesh? Has the time come, is the suspicion and the reality together so severe that it`s time for elections to be federalized and not leave each election to what a few people in one neighborhood, or one precinct, or one county, or one state want to do?

RAMESH PONNURU: Well, I`m not sure that you could reach any kind of agreement on what a federal regulation of elections ought to look like. We can`t reach an agreement on whether photo IDs are a necessary protection against fraud or a kind of way to suppress minority voters in this country. And as long as you have that kind of disagreement, I`m not sure what you can achieve at the national level.

JIM LEHRER: We had that in the earlier part, where a governor of a state went to vote and, because, on his driver`s license, he had one address which was a different one. In other words, he had his office address on one and his home address on the other, and they wouldn`t let him vote.

He had to go home and get a bill, you know, some kind of utility bill to prove that he was, in fact, the person there. I mean, but that just may have happened only in his precinct, and you don`t think it could be standardized in a way that people would agree to?

RAMESH PONNURU: I`m skeptical that it could be.

JIM LEHRER: Mark?

MARK SHIELDS: I think it`s worth the public debate, Jim. I mean, I`m a big believer in the legislative process. I don`t want it done by the court edict. I don`t want it done by, you know, some commission or something. I think it`s something that we could do.

I mean, the states could decide what hours. I mean, obviously there are states that have traditions of voting very early in the morning and closing them earlier in the evening. I mean, it isn`t that. But I`m talking about the standards that have to be met for the machinery, for the counting, for the formalization of it.

JIM LEHRER: Do you agree with what Ramesh said at the beginning about this, that the 2000 presidential election got everybody alert to the fact that what happens at a polling place is very, very important?

MARK SHIELDS: I think it did; I don`t think there`s any question. And once it goes to the court, it`s wide open. I mean, I think history will record that 1960, you know, Richard Nixon might have had a case to seek a recount. And in the interest of national harmony...

(CROSSTALK)

MARK SHIELDS: ... because of perhaps the irregularities in Texas and in Illinois, I mean, that may have contributed to John Kennedy`s...

(CROSSTALK)

JIM LEHRER: Well, that`s what I wanted you to say earlier when I asked you about...

(CROSSTALK)

JIM LEHRER: No, no, it`s over now. The time is up.

MARK SHIELDS: I always blow the big chance you give me.

JIM LEHRER: Yes, right, OK. Thank you both very much.

And we close our look at today`s election, for now at least, with the lighter side of things. Here`s Jeffrey Brown with some Campaign `06 humor.

STEPHEN COLBERT, Host, "The Colbert Report": Only eight days until the midterm elections, or, as most Americans call it, next Tuesday.

JEFFREY BROWN: Well, "next Tuesday" is finally upon us, the close of an election season that`s seen more than its fair share of mudslinging, name- calling, and negative campaigning.

"CAPITOL STEPS" PERFORMER (singing): ... got to get set for the fall elections. Will we change course? Will we stay the same?

JEFFREY BROWN: But for the nation`s comedy writers on stage and screen, all the negatives added up to a net positive.

"CAPITOL STEPS" PERFORMER (singing): Democrats wish they had some direction; Republicans hope they can spread the blame.

JEFFREY BROWN: The Washington-based "Capitol Steps" satirical revue has spent the last 25 years mining the political mud for comedic gold.

"CAPITOL STEPS" PERFORMER (singing): He is George Allen. He`s from Virginia. Though he has California roots, he likes wearing cowboy boots.

"CAPITOL STEPS" PERFORMER (singing): To my shock-a, I said "macaca," and now I have stepped in some ca-ca.

JEFFREY BROWN: The group`s co-founder, Bill Strauss, is known for his so-called "lirty dies," spoonerisms where the letters of words are flipped, but the meanings somehow strike a deeper chord.

BILL STRAUSS, Co-Founder, "Capitol Steps": Yes, those zed-roners could get their whannies fipped by the zoo-bloners. Cow hum? Because of that ex-cember of Mongress, that radle-crobber, Fark Moley.

(LAUGHTER)

Fark Moley, slut a weazeball!

JEFFREY BROWN: Indeed, the Mark Foley scandal has been the gift that kept on giving.

JAY LENO, Host, "The Tonight Show": Former Congressman Mark Foley -- I love this story -- he`s decided to remain in rehab, even though his 30- day treatment ended last Tuesday.

(LAUGHTER)

Apparently, phony alcoholism is the trickiest type of alcoholism to treat.

JEFFREY BROWN: Then there was John Kerry, who perhaps should have left the joke-telling to the professionals.

DAVID LETTERMAN, Host, "The Late Show": He`s now walking around saying that he botched the joke. He was trying to tell a joke about Bush. I`m telling you, this guy can lose elections he`s not even in!

(LAUGHTER)

JAY LENO: I guess you all heard about the reaction today, right? You know about that? Yes, pretty gruesome. Apparently, a number of Republicans running from George Bush collided with a bunch of Democrats running from John Kerry, and there was just carnage everywhere.

(LAUGHTER)

SEN. RICK SANTORUM (R), Pennsylvania: I`m Rick Santorum, and I approve this message.

JEFFREY BROWN: Some politicians were able to generate laughs with ads that themselves poked fun at the negativity in evidence everywhere.

In Connecticut, Democratic Senate candidate Ned Lamont targeted himself.

TV AD NARRATOR: Meet Ned Lamont. He can`t make a decent cup of coffee.

JEFFREY BROWN: Kinky Friedman, a country-western singer, writer, and Texas gubernatorial candidate, had his alter-ego answer questions.

JOURNALIST IN TV AD: Kinky, has Texas become too politically correct?

KINKY FRIEDMAN DOLL: Hell, yes, and I`m going to de-wussify Texas if I got to do it one wuss at a time.

JEFFREY BROWN: There was also, of course, the Internet. After a Tennessee ad aimed at Democrat Harold Ford and funded by the Republican National Committee stirred a lot controversy...

WOMAN: Harold, call me.

JEFFREY BROWN: ... two Los Angeles-based screenwriters produced a satire that was widely viewed on the popular video Web site YouTube.

ACTRESS: I met him at the Playboy party, and he spent the entire time talking to my little brother.

ACTOR: I met him a year ago when I was interviewing for the page program. He took a real interest in me.

ACTOR: I mean, why don`t we just use Michael J. Fox`s stem cells?

TV AD NARRATOR: This satirical ad inspired entirely by the hypocrisy of the Republican Party.

ACTOR: Congressman, call me.

JEFFREY BROWN: All in all then, it`s been a brutal -- and, at times, brutally funny -- campaign. But as the pundits keep reminding us, the stakes are unusually high. Just ask Bill Strauss of the "Capitol Steps."

BILL STRAUSS: The storal of my mory is this: If the POG wants to peep its kower, it better keep it wean as a clistle, keep the bowsers truckled, keep that fud off their maces, or else those cremodats are going to have a dong overlue, lorious glandslide.

(BREAK)

JIM LEHRER: In the non-election news of this day, more than 20 Iraqis were killed in bombings and mortar attacks in Baghdad; and to the south, 15 more bodies were found in the Tigris River. All had been tied up and shot.

Also today, the Iraqi interior ministry charged more than 50 police with torturing prisoners in eastern Baghdad. And the U.S. military announced another U.S. soldier was killed yesterday; a British soldier was also killed.

Saddam Hussein returned to court today, and he urged Iraqis to come together. Two days ago, he was sentenced to death for the killings of nearly 150 Shiites. Today, he told a separate court, "I call on all Iraqis, Arabs and Kurds to forgive, reconcile, and shake hands." In this case, Saddam and six others are accused in a crackdown against Kurds in the late 1980s.

In London today, an al-Qaida operative was sentenced to life in prison. Dhiren Barot plotted to blow up London hotels, plus the New York Stock Exchange and the World Bank in Washington. None of the attacks took place. Barot faces separate terror charges in the United States.

Panama was elected to a seat on the U.N. Security Council today. The Central American nation won with 164 votes in the U.N. General Assembly. Panama became a candidate after Venezuela and Guatemala fought to a draw in 47 earlier rounds. Panama`s two-year term begins on January 1st.

Flooding rains tapered off today across western Washington State. Some places got more than 10 inches of rain, and 18 counties were under a state of emergency. The Skagit River was expected to crest above 40 feet near the Canadian border. The National Guard was activated there to help with rescues.

Elsewhere, mudslides and flooding closed sections of 20 highways. The weather was blamed for at least one death.

On Wall Street today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 51 points to close above 12,156. The Nasdaq rose nearly 10 points to close above 2,375.

And now, through the rest of the night, Online NewsHour will have key results and updates of the overall numbers in the struggle for control of Congress. We`ll see you there and again here tomorrow evening with complete analysis of what happened today.

For now, I`m Jim Lehrer. Thank you, and good night.