The MacNeil/Lehrer Report; Roper Poll

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washington in a matter of hours the polls will open for the nineteen seventy six presidential elections president ford and jimmy carter wound up there campaigning today with national opinion polls telling them their neck and neck that mr ford has miraculously erase the enormous lead carter started with last summer the latest gallup poll shows forty one point ahead in the popular vote says carter one point ahead of pollsters say the race is too close to call tonight we release results of our own extensive nationwide poll with results somewhat different from the others are pollster does predict a winner again yes robin barnes roper is here fresh from tabulating the results of his nationwide poll one thousand nine hundred ninety one person will face to face interviews conducted friday skinny wednesday through sunday this is not the first goal in the rogue organization has done for us of course they get reaction surveys after each of the three presidential debates now mr roper is prepared to call tomorrow's presidential election based on

his weekend pulling in a minute it's going to do just that there's going to be more than that because there's a process for this kind of polling that need some explanation so the headline typeset in such a percent for carter and forth and so on can be properly and adequately understood so part of our presentation were over forty nine other words will include a discussion of pulling itself but first without for the dramatic and a stroke or you see a probable carter victory march that correct i think it's more likely than a ford victory yes i will get your file numerical projections a moment because they could step by step up that beginning with your measurements on voter interest in the election what we're results well there's been a lot of talk about how the public has been turned off and apathy is setting and then we find something rather different than that in early october we found forty seven percent who said they were very interesting election as of this weekend we find that

up to fifty two percent that seems to have pork polarized people some people about much more interested and a few have been turned off but generally it increases up what about the on the question of intention to vote on which turn out what's happening to all of what's happening there i think it's a reflection of rising interest to we get sixty six percent saying they will vote and after putting them through a screening process our we estimate based on that the likely turnout will be in the fifty six to fifty nine arranged with libya both seventy seventy two which was a fifty five percent or what's happened all this voter apathy there about it and talk about those of us in the press and others why the press has been following this campaign for over a year now and i think they're getting a little turned off and they haven't seen too much new in the last couple of months but the public doesn't really good turnout among election till early october late september

did us these people whether it mattered to them who actually one that's also another test of apathy is not yes we asked people were late it was of major importance to them that their candidate win or would just generally be better weather didn't make much difference and to get fifty one percent saying it was of major importance and that's reasonably close to what we got in the nineteen sixty kennedy nixon election with sixty percent then that iran is proper can you tell us from your survey what kinds of people favored jimmy carter where is the drawing most of his strength from well you know look at my notes here blacks are the groupies strongest one out this chart that you see on the screen now shows the group's work harder as margin over for where the length of his lead over florida substantially wider that it

is among the general public plaques are is strongest group thats more strongly forum democrats are next a liberal says nearly half of them come in his lead is nearly fifty percent greater among liberals and for its strength is where union members are next people in the low income brackets are for carter by a wide margin twenty nine percent of catholics would come next couple of catholics are traditionally a small margin for a democratic candidate among catholics so yes it's more the norm and that is not reason to think that cantor won't do as well as democrats share and traditional areas of the country well ta yes i don't think that's going to help them but he is stronger with

them or with catholics them with protestants or is there a difference between the two were the moment comes to protestants no not really you know almost to an almost identical let's move on what else what other category of people who characterize themselves says middle of the rover's philosophically are fairly strong for not a strong as people classify themselves as liberals but they're stronger than average form and so are the lower middle income group not a strong form of the low income group stronger than average that's what the same sort of thing with burma's to ford supporters wearing where's the growing his support and the support was clear libor comes from people that rather small group of people who classify themselves as republicans he's got a seven the point lead over carter among people who classify themselves as republicans i'm typically small for a republican presidential candidate to have only seventy percent

of the un and the support of his own party i can't speak with four recollection of the facts but no i wouldn't say so they will say that was sort of normal and among conservatives he has only twenty two percent believe that carter but remember our poll shows him behind so when he's twenty two points ahead that's more than average lee ahead right our independence now this is a pretty key group independents are going rather strongly for whereas these behind overall he has an eighteen ford has an eighteen point lead with people who don't identify with either party and prosperous a prosperous people and basically his support is an upscale town of the support the affluent the better educated the better off that's where his supporters and he has a margin among the college educated yes that's right a very large margin percent

not by itself against the fact that overall he's behind this is an eight percent plus minus which is overall ok now what reasons do you find people are supporting her well actually what we did was to give people a list of reasons that they have given us in the past to express their feelings about both carter and ford and reasons that that to the press has been saying are carter's drinks were forged frank's workers problem for ford we gave people a list and asked them which of them if anywhere their reasons the strongest reason for carter was the fact that he cares about the i'm sort of the human compassion side of fifty four percent cited that as a reason for being for a second which surprised me a lot was the simple fact that he's a democrat which shows something about the inherent bases god being the candidate of the majority party third was the fact that he was honest and open

sided by nearly half of his supporters forth as the fact that he would do more about jobs and unemployment next was the fact that he is not part of the washington establishment the fact that he was more decisive and have stronger leader than ford was the sixth reason and finally a number of people said they like mondale better than gold and the seven strongest reason that's interesting semester originally made his presence felt there worked there or how does that compare with why people are supporting mr ford or ford's primary strength is on the basis of having had more experience having been in the job but i think it's interesting that the second reason for him and it's only the third reason for carter is the fact that he's honest and open not only does it rank higher in the list of ford reasons but it's a higher percentage fifty six percent side of that a car a ford supporters cited that as a reason for being for him whereas only forty nine

percent of our supporters cited that ah i'm lynn neary the fact that serve for his steady and predictable you know what to expect with him was the third most frequently cited reason for favoring him the next two were sort of antique artery subscribers inconsistent on the issue he says one thing one time another thing another tie the fact that he's fuzzy on the issues and i think these are probably the two things that caused his honest open rating to be lower than not sort of so ford is against big government spending to keep the lid on spending at another one and whereas jobs and unemployment are a harder reason i keeping the lid on inflation is a forgery what issues did not show up on the list well we have we have for example the playboy interview on as a

reasoned as a carter as a ford reason because of jimmy carter's playboy you can have very low histories we also have on the list the carter reasons because of ford's statement about the russian domination a lack of russian domination of eastern european countries that also came out quite a lot of let's take a look now at carter's league now has fluctuated since his campaign began beginning say in september that's your first measurement i are first measurement was as of september fourth and we showed him with a seventeen point lead carter with a seventeen point lead along the entire public eye and then it dropped to the eleven to twelve point range just prior to the first debate it dropped to the fortified point range after the first debate this part of the second debate and then part of the third presidential debate which laughter

is women's orders when in the second debate and after the vice presidential debate he bounced back up to a nine to ten point and italy why that brings us now to the nitty gritty of order of preference now what with journalists start down that road and turns of candidate preference as of over this weekend in your latest poll i if we if we take the figures that are comparable to those figures i decided that would be the total sample kind of a vote and we show harder leaving for by forty seven to forty along with total potential electorate with two percent for one of the minor party candidates and one percent undecided now one week we find that and look at those people who were likely below market total sample many of whom say they're not going to bother to vote but those that by their testimony look like they're likely to vote we cut that ford that

carter leaps from seven points to four points right now they're really the little scandal years ahead of this year the worry now on undecided so what'd you do with the undecideds and you came up with this final final federation it really undecideds are always a problem on one conventional thing to do is to allocate them as the decider out that we did not do that in this case we allocate them exactly even after ford after carter because we've seen evidence in the study that the people are making up their minds late are not making up quite the same way as those who are making up early art so your final then adjusted thing for undecideds it's there is carter fifty one percent or forty seven percent and the other structure that's right well so what is your prediction for tomorrow's taking into consideration how firm that support is for these trends well let's assume that that the fullness of the support i think is a factor

when we look we asked people whether they were definitely going to vote for carter probably vote for carter probably vote for fourteen definitely vote for four and if they didn't respond or any of those they said they didn't know we then asked them which way they went and sort of push them in the making of chips if you take all people who said they definitely plan to vote for someone i know at that particular charters the money was declared that her seventeen or there are there's the year of the people who would definitely made up their minds are for one candidate or the other carter had an eight point lead over four but then when you take the people who say they probably will vote for one candidate or the other in and then in with the definite the carter lead drops to four points and if you take the leader's those who with the sort of the

third bush take one side of the other it still is at four points i think that those people who say probably an even more so those who say they're leaning probably reflects the late the spiders and they seem to be going a little less for carter award for ford then the early this matter's ok picture a perimeter sure you're on the lam what is your projection for best best estimate will happen to our best estimate is that carter when i hate to say flatly that he will be elected because r martin isn't that a large and also it's a little uncomfortable with the gallup poll showing at one point the other way to go flat way out say gallup strong words regarding the deal with all the times he's been right but i think with a four point lead we show you'd have to say the odds are on par or better our pollsters here become

such an integral part of american elections that like any other institution in other critics these days like we like to look beyond our own rogue reporter some current criticisms of the role of polls in the election process one critic is michael wheeler and he's with reporter steven evans station wgbh in boston rabbi michael wilbon the book all lies damn lies and statistics and i guess that suggest we all do respect that roper video think very much a political i know mr william have some criticisms some problems with the credibility of political polling in this election year specifically where i have many but i think that we ought to bear in mind when you look at a projection like roper's or gallup jars or for that matter the polls and done pretty well in presidential elections where an incumbent has been running for office example fifty six with eisenhower sixty four with johnson and johnson was a virtual incumbent there last time around with nixon that india for other elections since nineteen sixty eight they effectively since nineteen forty eight

with a core supporters don't like the count they haven't done very well either in an election which includes the color when in fact that word or nineteen sixty eight for example one that era's projected eight humphrey leads to the record really isn't all that remarkable presented the pollsters are having problems with the methodology your brother john to measure the wall the commission says which which are as i say are disturbing but if this is the science and why is it that that roper tonight that projects a four point lead for rick carter and it's a one point in the other direction according to gallup i think that that shows that there's a fair amount of art involved in this in that for all the statistics which show in which we've seen the last fifteen minutes of the posters have to go through an awful lot of estimating guessing in terms of what turnout is in and the aha the turnout is going to favor one candidate or another and by the time you make each one of those steps you're getting further from science and closer to a charter just one block

polls it seems have become a kind of spectator sport it's a presidential campaign and we were all fascinated i suppose after each presidential debate to find out who won you think there was any validity in that i didn't i wasn't a great deal of the litany of a distracted us from looking at the right question without respect to work to mr roper who as far as just go i have high regard for to ask people who won the second date with a carter or was it forward what does winning me and for example what the friends of mine so one debate or another and fought the car might have had the at one time for the other but their opinion of both men were and i think a lot more if they could have in depth perhaps reveal how closely the porch and they really remember what was said or was the head of the impression that said that he's left basically derived from the commentary the years in the post debate analysis i suspect that it's a fair amount of water who do you think was more affected by these polls the candidates for the war ii vet the candidates were affected question about that if you look at the video no

work for rick carter for example you know i think it's fair to say has been telling carter to not rock the boat to work you avoid controversy in his remaining weeks of the campaign and that remains to be seen that that strategy may not be yet really what the doctor ordered i think also that the national polls and this is and i don't blame the psychedelic for the national polls at the outset i made the carter group overconfident if you will and they were picking up their offices in the white house before they're really sitting down and then find hard strategy for that there's no question among the goals of influence how the candidates have a treatise and if you do you really wanna know what what the candidates think we really wanna know what the polls say just look and say we're carter and ford have been the last three four days because they are acting they're travel arrangements were made according to their pollster if the texas is up for grabs and see both candidates their partners were not california which apparently as he doesn't like the triple poultry may be

measuring something correctly without catching the jittery sense of what happened i think that's true i think that they you have an interesting situation this year were below literally on a campaign called of clothes were as calvin harris had it so far apart as a consequence it i i i fail to see the science here with so much disagreement wash i had my plane he teaches a course on public opinion recording of the colombian nursery school of journalism only are the service manager of elections analysis that nbc news for several years was caught robo call the ethnic factor which feel that minorities vote in american elections but a lady do agree with mr winters problems with the whole you know do you agree that it's not a science to live so you heard what he said well i think gov vista really really doesn't understand what the polling is all about its it's not till the final words not the westward it's only based on laws of probability and statistics and tom to snap shot that you take a point in time trying to find something out that we're all trying to find out what's going on during the campaign a poll happened to be a pretty good

way of doing it and if it's not exactly off as scientific as hard as crisp sciences is mr wheeler with michael that's his argument with the laws of probability what about the effect that it was just the online out that it has on candidates in the way they run their races dc that is necessarily a bad thing i think it's absolutely true that candidates use polls for one thing enough to find out who's ahead and who's behind them where they can go to pick up there behind where they can go to the length and there be no political campaign that i've ever watched or seen i've relied on the poles to tell the politicians what the issues were in any fundamental way they might look to see what issues are important or unimportant to the voters but nope nope our vision with assaulting a campaign would that solve this is going to rely on a poll to tell us what their stamina issues should be i let's talk about the press for a moment to learn how the press handles

polls have been criticizing them suggested they become overwhelmed by them you agree with that yes i think so i mean i'm we've seen more poles more public polls more poles commissioned by news media this time than ever before now on many of the news organizations and they have very sophisticated job with appalling and we have gotten some very good information out of that but i think that very often newsman read their own stories and don't read what's on the public's mind even when they're doing polls the example of how the president is speaking on eastern europe or on mr carter's statement the new discovery of art created a tremendous sensation among the members of the press on and it was on the front pages of the newspapers for days and days and that but it simply was not on the minds of the people a couple of the voters know that perfect example seems to me of where the press can use survey usable and really do something with reporting as a result or they must use words the press must use polling this time around what i think the example that i

cited as one another one another example would be on there is this sort of vague notion that the jimmy carter's league collapse the office from a massive rock twenty thirty point lead was welcomed back the matter is that if any news organization is doing a survey here after both conventions and roughly after labor day even a jimmy carter didn't have that we'd all know there was no reason why should on the basis of the pole we would've learned that prior to the republican convention and the republican party wasn't going to vote for gerald ford those those votes came home and the week collapsed that's where the polls would've led to the press corp mr kerr what's your reaction mr willis a statement that there was an awful lot of interpretation are involved in this in the morse is that you go through the more you move away from science you usually right polling is a scientific methods and it also uses art and the

artist to decide which scientific method to use and what the results mean when you get them back i think the difference for example between our four point lead for carter and gallup's one point lead for ford it may be sampling error certainly it is within the range of sampling her i doubt if that's the reason i think it's different in judgments as to how to determine who the likely voters are completely right i would point out the law is not a science either that's his chosen for you it seems that serve mr ebert i are in total agreement here that i'm a comic no pretensions about about latino politics were what i would like to see in the way of polls why is it that that the trooper tells us this evening that interest in the election is unlikely to turn out of the higher than was anticipated when harris tells us as of last friday that interest has fallen off in october now given the closeness of the race where the huge gallup's figures or robbers figures or harrah's figures for that matter turn out as is clearly going to be a big factor

here and yet i don't think that the polls have been very enlightening about really which way it's gonna break the second thing i like to hear that roper i respond to is that they galloped made a statement which really surprised me this was last weekend in washington he said that a large turnout would favor for dallek cuts against the conventional wisdom and i wonder what his dallas address our data shows that people who have not really made up their minds are certainly going more for ford are given indication of going relatively more important for them the early disorders are now it's conceivable on the island and those people not having made up their minds are not likely to vote for a year would say there is something more a gallon says that if there's a larger turnout it could benefit for a robbery a conventional

wisdom that if these people move out of the leaner getting remember that probably not a probably a minute the definite yes i would say that that would certainly looks like wood advantage ford well i want to thank you all very much of that we have to leave it there and we'll all watched martin's ceo who turns out to be right not only between the candidates but between the fosters it was very much thank you in the numbers mr wheeler thank you hear jim lehrer and i will be back tomorrow night and we will be previewing the election the evening with a look back or is there send one dollar to the macneil

lehrer reports fox report by new york one although one nine the macneil lehrer report was produced by wnet and evidently they are solely responsible for its content was made possible in part by grants from public television stations the corporation for public broadcasting act on cooperation and the ford foundation ha ha ha you're ellen noone the

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