The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

RAY SUAREZ: Good evening. I'm Ray Suarez. Jim Lehrer is off. On the NewsHour tonight: The news of this day; then, the ups and downs of the holiday season economy; the ethical troubles of a stem cell pioneer; wrestling with evolution and intelligent design in Pennsylvania; political analysis from Shields and Brooks; and picking up the pieces in Guatemala.

NEWS SUMMARY

RAY SUAREZ: Retailers across the country opened their doors wide today to the droves of holiday shoppers waiting outside. The day after Thanksgiving traditionally kicks off the final phase of the hectic holiday shopping season. Jeffrey Brown has our report.

JEFFREY BROWN: Laptop computers for $378, DVD recorders for just $70, cashmere sweaters for 30 bucks and MP3 players for $40-- these were some of the "door-buster deals" that lured Americans to stores in the predawn hours. Some customers arrived hours early.

CUSTOMER: We got out here about 4:30 AM, but we didn't think the line would be wrapped around the corner. (Clapping)

JEFFREY BROWN: Once inside, they loaded their carts with widescreen TVs, stereos and other big ticket items, but the biggest bargains always didn't last long.

At this Orlando Wal-Mart, security guards wrestled a man down to the ground after he tried to cut in line to purchase one of the laptops.

According to one survey, 28 percent of Americans begin their holiday shopping in earnest on this so-called "Black Friday," kicking off a month of frenzied spending.

At this mall outside of Washington, D.C., it was a family affair.

WOMAN: It's a lot of people. It's very hectic, very crowded. I'm looking for my sister now, but the show must go on, so we must continue shopping.

JEFFREY BROWN: Some shoppers said high gas prices contributed to a shorter gift list this year.

MAN: You have to watch what you spend, you know. You have to budget how many things you buy.

JEFFREY BROWN: But others said turnout seemed higher than in previous years.

WOMAN: Today, it looks like the way it was maybe ten years back. Everybody's in the spirit, everybody's out shopping, and apparently they had a savings account that they could use.

JEFFREY BROWN: Some stores, including K-Mart and Payless Shoes, were open on Thanksgiving to get an even earlier jump on the holiday shopping season.

RAY SUAREZ: As shoppers spent, stocks rose on Wall Street today. That capped a fifth straight week of gains in an abbreviated day of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 15 points to close at nearly 10,932. The NASDAQ rose three points to close at 2,263. For the week, the Dow gained 1.5 percent, the NASDAQ rose 1.6 percent. We'll have more on the economy right after the News Summary.

A key border crossing between Gaza and Egypt formally reopened today. It's the first time Palestinians have taken control of an international border without Israeli oversight. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas led the ceremony at the Rafah terminal. It opens to Palestinian travelers tomorrow for four hours a day. Monitors from the European Union will keep track on the Palestinian side and eventually open the crossing for longer time periods.

Iraq's foreign minister today asked Japan to extend its military mission in Iraq. Japan's 600 non-combat troops are based mainly in the southern city of Samawah. Their mission there expires on Dec. 14, one day before Iraq's elections. But in a news conference in Tokyo, Iraqi Foreign Minister Zebari said: "Any premature withdrawal will send a wrong message to the terrorists." Japan gave no commitment on an extension.

In Iraq today, the U.S. military reported an American soldier died thanksgiving day in a tank accident south of Baghdad. Eleven Americans have been killed in Iraq this week, all but two in combat. That makes 76 U.S. deaths so far in November. More than 2,100 Americans have died since the war began.

Syria agreed today to let UN investigators question five officials in the murder of Rafik Hariri. The former Lebanese prime minister was killed last February in a deadly bomb blast in Beirut. The questioning will take place at UN offices in Vienna, Austria. Syria has repeatedly refused previous UN requests to conduct the sessions in Lebanon.

Indonesia announced plans to start manufacturing the bird flu drug Tamiflu. That announcement came the same day the virus was detected in poultry throughout Indonesia's capital, Jakarta. Elsewhere today, Vietnam and China also reported new bird flu outbreaks among their poultry. Overall, Vietnam has reported 42 human deaths from the bird flu virus, and China has two confirmed deaths.

British soccer legend George Best died in London today. He died from multiple organ failure after decades of alcohol abuse. Best was at his peak playing for Manchester United and Northern Ireland in the 1960s and '70s. He later came out of retirement and played in the U.S. for the now-defunct North American Soccer League. George best was 59 years old.

Actor Pat Morita died at his home in Las Vegas yesterday of natural causes. He was best known for playing the part of the wise Mr. Miyagi in the "Karate Kid" movies. That role earned him an Oscar nomination. He got his big break in the television show "Happy Days." Pat Morita was 73 years old.

That's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to: Retail sales and stock market moves; stem cell missteps; Dover, Pennsylvania's evolution debate; weekly political analysis; and hurricane aftermath in Guatemala.

FOCUS - MONEY MATTERS

RAY SUAREZ: Now Jeffrey Brown takes a look at the economy.

JEFFREY BROWN: On the metaphorical opening bell of the holiday retail season, shoppers rushed in. On the real closing bell on Wall Street today, the Dow continued its flirtation with a return to 11,000, a number not seen since 2001.

Our economy watchers today are: David Wessel, deputy Washington bureau chief and columnist at the Wall Street Journal; and Sandra Shaber, a senior advisor at Global Insight, an economic consulting firm.

Welcome to both of you.

David, starting with the stock market, it looks like investors are feeling upbeat right now. What are they saying?

DAVID WESSEL: Well, you are right; the stock market has been up today and a few days earlier this week. And it seems investors that are happy about a couple of things: One is that oil prices are coming down. That's bullish for consumer spending, and for general attitudes on the economy. And I think the other thing that they appear to be looking at is the prospect that the Federal Reserve won't be raising interest rates all that much after Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan retires in January.

RAY SUAREZ: And translate that for us; that means that they won't be slowing the economy down?

DAVID WESSEL: Well, when interest rates go up, that means two things to the stock market: One, it's more expensive to borrow both for consumers and businesses. And the other thing is it makes bonds more attractive and people would rather buy bonds when interest rates are higher than stocks. So for both those reasons, the stock market generally likes the idea that maybe interest rates will go up another half percentage point or three quarters of a percentage point but not more.

RAY SUAREZ: When you look at the news over the last few months, Iraq, hurricanes, gas prices, most of it doesn't look all that good. And yet consumer confidence number I saw the other day looked better.

DAVID WESSEL: I think that's really interesting -- that the American economy has proven to be extraordinarily resilient. Something bad happens like Hurricane Katrina or a bad time in Iraq or the president's troubles on one thing or another and the economy takes a little hiccup. But then recently it seems to come back strong. So despite all the things that you mentioned and more, the economy still is on track to grow at better than 3 percent -- at a 3 percent rate for the next couple of quarters and that seems to be cheering investor.

RAY SUAREZ: So Sandra Shaber, of course, one of the keys to all this has been the performance of the American consumer. What do you see as we begin the retail -- the holiday retail season?

SANDRA SHABER: There is no question that consumers have done their share if not more than their share in buoying up this economy in recent years. During the holiday shopping season consumer spending for the retailers in general will look pretty good, probably not as good as last year but pretty good.

For the economy in general, however, consumers are not going to be making that big a contribution because of the huge car sale numbers this summer, so a big downturn in car sales in the fourth quarter will mean a lesser contribution from consumer spending. But retail sales should be pretty good.

JEFFREY BROWN: Do retailers have to lure consumers in this year with deep discounts as they had to in some years, or are consumers just walking in on their own?

SANDRA SHABER: This doesn't end. The price promotional business doesn't end. And this is going to be in some ways a stiffer year than ever. For example, in recent years, the discount market has -- was big enough so that all the major discount retailers had a big pie to share. This time they are going to be fighting ever more competitively even for the discount dollar. It's a very, very price promotional holiday shopping season.

RAY SUAREZ: And what sectors look good, or what items? Even today I was looking at the market, the shares were doing well for Best Buy, Circuit City, Apple. That tells you something.

SANDRA SHABER: Electronics, electronics, electronics, absolutely. Whatever is a new toy, and even some of the older ones. Electronics are obviously a big hit this season as they have been.

JEFFREY BROWN: David, what do you see happening with the retail season?

DAVID WESSEL: Well, I agree with Sandra. It looks like a pretty good season for sales dollars this fourth quarter. As you know, it's a really important season for retailers. About a quarter of the sales of department stores and clothing stores are done at this time of year, a third of the jewelry store sales. I think the interesting question is: What happens as we go into next year? Will consumer spending, American consumer spending finally begin to peter out?

We know that one of the things that's kept American consumers spending is their ability to take money out of their houses: Selling them, refinancing, home equity leans. And as the housing market cools off, that impetus to spending is likely to taper off. And consumer spending growth next year is not expected to be as good as earlier this year.

RAYSUAREZ: This is the question of the housing bubble.

DAVID WESSEL: Right. But one of the reasons the housing bubble has been so important to this is it allowed Americans it to spend even though they weren't getting big raises on the job. If the housing market cools off, they won't be able to take as much money out of their houses. As mortgage rates go up, it won't be as attractive to refinance. And this may be a break on consumer spending.

And the question is whether foreign economies or business investment of spending can pick up the slack and keep the American economy growing at a healthy pace.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, what other warning signs do you see out there?

DAVID WESSEL: Well, that's one of them. We don't know if the energy scare is past. Energy prices remain high even though they have come down some. We know that the U.S. economy is very dependent on foreign borrowing. That means that we don't save very much money here. Other countries save a lot of money, particularly Europe and Asia. They send their savings to us. That allows our federal government to keep spending more than it takes in. It allows American consumers to spend more than they earn, all without driving up interest rates.

Now every time you look at the economic report someone is predicting that that is about to end. And so far they have been wrong. But things that can't go on forever eventually stop. And the question is: At what point will foreign investors grow a little wary of the U.S. economy? At what point will there be demand for foreign savings in Japan, for instance, which is doing better? And at what point will we be unable to get this luxury of borrowing money cheap, borrowing basically on credit very cheaply and see our interest rates begin to rise as foreigners want to put their money somewhere else?

RAY SUAREZ: Well, Sandra Shaber, what pitfalls do you see out there for retailers and consumers?

SANDRA SHABER: There are a couple of other ones that I would like to add to what David suggested. Employment growth has not been very strong in recent months, and, in fact, recent quarters. And that is a real problem for consumers. If we don't get some improvement in the job market, you're going to see consumer confidence falling again. And that is particularly true in some parts of the country.

For example, these recent announcements about layoffs in the auto industry and the related industries are big problem for those parts of the country. But the job market, in many cases sluggish growth in wages and in household purchasing power, and it's also true that even though gasoline prices have come back down to somewhat less stratospheric heights, we have got problems they had in heating homes this winter, particularly natural gas prices. So there are still some problems out there for consumers in addition to other sectors in the economy.

RAY SUAREZ: All right, David, help me with one final thing, and maybe Sandra, you too. We always say this is the heaviest, biggest shopping day of the year. I want to try and see if we can put this myth to an end here. I was just reading today that last year Saturday, Dec. 18, a week before Christmas was the actual biggest shopping day, David?

DAVID WESSEL: Well, I noticed my colleagues at the Wall Street Journal have been -- they say it alternates between this Friday being the biggest shopping day of the year or the Saturday just before Christmas. As people have come to expect big discounts and markdowns just before Christmas, there seems to have been a real shift in where the big day is.

RAY SUAREZ: Sandra Shaber?

SANDRA SHABER: People seem to play chicken with the retailers. Who is going to buy first, who is going to lower prices first? But there is another factor going on here. So many people buy gift cards. And so many people wait for the bargains right after Christmas that a lot of Christmas shopping gets pushed ahead, even past Christmas into January. And January for many of the retailers is the really profitable month.

RAY SUAREZ: All right, Sandra Shaber and David Wessel, thanks a lot.

DAVID WESSEL: You are welcome.

FOCUS - STEM CELL PIONEER

RAY SUAREZ: Now, an update on the ethics troubles of a key scientist in the field of embryonic stem cell research. Health correspondent Susan Dentzer has our report. The NewsHour's health unit is a partnership with the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

SUSAN DENTZER: Yesterday, world- renowned scientist Woo Suk Hwang said he would quit his post at the helm of South Korea's major new center for embryonic stem cell research.

DR. WOO SUK HWANG (Translated): From the perspective of present laws and ethical rules of the world, I and our research team admit that we lacked ethical awareness.

SUSAN DENTZER: The move came as Hwang acknowledged that two junior researchers on his staff had in fact donated their own egg cells for his research, and that 20 other women had been paid for donating theirs.

DR. WOO SUK HWANG (Translated): Scientific research should be conducted within the boundaries of ethics, but in reality there were some cases in which ethics regulations backing newly developing science were not in place.

SUSAN DENTZER: Hwang's move capped months of speculation about ethics issues involving his spectacular research. A veterinarian by training, Hwang first gained notice for cloning dozens of animals, including the world's first cloned dog, announced last August.

Hwang's notoriety has grown as he and his team have cloned human embryos and then dismantled them to derive embryonic stem cells. It's the sort of work that could not be funded with federal research dollars in the U.S. under restrictions President George Bush put in place in 2001.

Earlier this year, Hwang and his team announced in the journal Science that they had created specially tailored sets of stem cells with the same nuclear DNA as nine different human donors. That raised the prospect that one day, such genetically matched stem cells could be used to regenerate damaged tissues and organs. The latest concerns about the origins of the human egg cells used in Hwang's research have only added fuel to the ethics fire.

DR. JERRY SCHATTEN: I am the Sherpa, I am the luggage carrier for you, and the work that you do in Korea doesn't occur anywhere else in the world.

SUSAN DENTZER: Jerry Schatten is a University of Pittsburgh scientist who met Hwang when he visited his lab in Seoul several years ago. Since then, he's helped Hwang train and educate other scientists in the U.S.

But earlier this month, Schatten said he was abandoning his work with Hwang out of concerns the Korean had misled him about the egg donors. The egg donations from women on Hwang's research team were not illegal, but the practice is frowned on in the scientific community out of concern that subordinates could feel pressure from senior scientists.

Hwang said he had only learned about the donations after the fact and had subsequently lied about them at the request of the donors themselves. Similarly, paying the 20 other egg donors was not illegal at the time, although South Korea has since passed a law that bars the practice.

The question now is what impact the revelations could have on embryonic stem cell research. South Korea's government has pumped the equivalent of millions of dollars into Hwang's lab.

It also built Seoul's new stem cell research hub, the center from which Hwang just stepped down as director, in hopes of spurring growth of a vibrant new industry.

Today, South Korea's health minister said the government still stood squarely behind Hwang and would continue funding his work, but there could be greater impact internationally among scientists who had planned research collaborations with Hwang.

U.S. and Australian scientists have recently said they would halt talks to move those efforts forward because of the ethical cloud over Hwang's research. And that could mean that South Korea will continue to make inroads in embryonic stem cell research even as the larger controversy over ethics continues here in the U.S.

RAY SUAREZ: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight: Voting on evolution in Pennsylvania; Shields and Brooks; and devastation in Guatemala.

UPDATE - EVOLVING DEBATE

RAY SUAREZ: Voters weighed in on the debate on how to teach evolution this month in Dover, Pennsylvania. NewsHour correspondent Fred de Sam Lazaro of Twin Cities Public Television has our report.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Dover, Pennsylvania population 22,000 has long been a farm town. In recent years it's become a bedroom community for people who work in the Baltimore area. They all came for the quiet, conservative lifestyle. And these days barber Mike Myers says they want it back.

MIKE MYERS: It's a small town. We never had this much attention you know, we're not used to it.

At first it was like, oh this is pretty neat, what is going on here. And now it's like, jeez, it's all the time. It is time to pack up and get another subject.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The subject that put Dover into the national spotlight was intelligent design. In 2004 Dover's solidly Republican school board asked 9th grade biology teachers to add a statement about intelligent design when they taught evolution.

DAVID NAPIERSKI, Former School Board Member: Which basically stated that in that statement, the evolution had gaps in it, so therefore to fill in those gaps, they felt that there was another theory out there from a scientific standpoint that could be reviewed, and that was called intelligent design.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Former school board member David Napierski said the change broadened student's understanding about human origins. Intelligent design supporters say some biology is so complex it could only be the result of design. No designer is identified, but critics say intelligent design is simply creationism in disguise.

The school board's action drew national media and legal attention. The American Civil Liberties union filed a suit on behalf of a group of parents.

ERIC ROTHSCHILD: Intelligent design is a religious proposition. It doesn't belong in public school science classes.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The school board was defended by the Thomas More Center, a conservative advocacy group. Attorney Richard Thompson.

RICHARD THOMPSON: It is the ability of school boards to allow public students to know about other theories besides Darwin's theory.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: After weeks of testimony in the lawsuit, but before the judge could rule, voters in Dover delivered their verdict on election night, Nov. 8. All eight members of the school board who were up for re-election were defeated. John Altman is a political scientist at York College.

JOHN ALTMAN: I think a lot of the voters felt like theschool board had, in a way, maybe embarrassed the community, you know, brought unwanted attention to the community, made the community seem like it was a backwards, you know, rural place. And I think they sent a message that that's not what Dover, Pennsylvania, is about.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Ironically, he says voters in Dover probably supported the teaching of intelligent design alongside evolution. Polls show a majority of Americans do. And newly elected board members like Terry Emig and Bernadette Reinking said it was an emotional issue for many voters.

TERRY EMIG: You had the certain individuals, you knocked on the door, you minute they told you who you were, no, we don't like you, good-bye, and shut the door.

BERNADETTE REINKING: Sometimes they would get so upset that we would just laugh and say, did you see his neck get all --

JUDY McILVAINE: There was a man that came out and did a monkey dance for me.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: As strong supporters of evolution, they say they were often branded as atheists.

BERNADETTE REINKING: All of us, I know we are all Christian. And so it is just sometimes I wonder exactly what the problem is because all of us believe in God and so, you know, that's not -- it's really not a question with us.

JUDY McILVAINE: It seems to be possible to believe in God and to accept the theory of evolution because one is about belief and faith and the other is about science and education.

BERNADETTE REINKING: Right.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The lawsuit may have put ousted school board members, most of them devout proclaimed conservative Christians.

DAVID NAPIERSKI: I believe in the principles of the bible and the bible clearly shows through Genesis, you know, I believe in the creationism view with respect to how God created the world and so forth, yes.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: Yet in court board members argues that the new curriculum and intelligent design were all about academics and science, and not religiously motivated.

REV. ED ROWAND: Academic reasoning --

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: That decision to separate their religious beliefs from their legal arguments likely turned off some of their supporters, According to Dennis Hall, a pastor at Dover's Friendship Community Church.

REV. DENNIS HALL: They should have said yes, we did it because this is what our faith beliefs -- believes in. But they said no, we did it because of science or whatever.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: That would have been a legally fatal thing to do, would it not?

REV. DENNIS HALL: Yes, certainly, I understand why they said that. But the reasoning behind it, the feeling behind it, I think, is because of their values, their religious values.

SPOKESMAN: There are people that continue to misunderstand intelligent design, and those people who felt it was religious in nature felt, okay, school board members, we think this is religious in nature. You need to push this on a religious platform. So therefore there were people from religious standpoint that were angry.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The new members say they are aware of that anger an division, even though it looked like a clean sweep, Judy McIlvaine says only a few hundred votes separated the two sides.

JUDY McILVANE: This was hardly a landslide victory. Almost half the voters did not vote for us. And we have to be very mindful of that going forward. And we know that.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: And McIlvane and colleagues on the new board say intelligent design does have its place in the classroom, just not in science class.

BERNADETTE REINKING: I would like to see it put in a philosophy class or a world history class, as an elective so that all religions can be discussed.

ROB McILVAINE: There is such a need for multicultural understanding across the gamut of religions, whether it is the Muslim faith, Judaism, Christianity, Buddhism Hinduism, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And I think intelligent design as a topic needs to be placed in that context as was said earlier so that it can, perhaps, galvanize some discussion and awaken some understandings and some tolerance that might not otherwise be the case.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: In the end, the words of one national broadcaster may do more than anything else to unify people in Dover. Televangelist Pat Robertson.

REV. PAT ROBERTSON: I would like to say to the good citizens of Dover, if there is a disaster in your area, don't turn to God. You just rejected him from your city.

SPOKESMAN: I think there is only one piece of his statement I even agreed with. And once again as he started off with the good citizens of Dover, I think he should have let it rest there.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The Robertson statement revived some people's sense of humor, as when our interview was interrupted by a phone call.

SPOKESPERSON: That was Pat Robertson calling. (Laughter)

BERNADETTE REINKING: Just leave it alone, Alex.

TERRY EMIG: Sorry Pat, she's busy.

JUDY McILVANE: Just wanted to tell you there was a tornado warning.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: New board members take office Dec. 5 and say they will look to a legal higher power before making any decisions on curricula changes.

JUDY McILVANE: The judge's word -- whatever it is -- going to carry great weight. And I think it's going to -- to do some work toward helping the community start to heal because that will, you know, it's not a school board saying, well, hey, this is how it is going to be.

This is a judge making a ruling on a case where both sides got to present their side, fully. This should bring some closure at least for our community. I'm sure there are many other communities throughout the United States that will be waiting for this verdict with great interest.

FRED DE SAM LAZARO: The judge's verdict in the Dover lawsuit is expected in early January.

FOCUS - SHIELDS & BROOKS

RAY SUAREZ: Now, to the analysis of Shields and Brooks. That's syndicated columnist Mark Shields and New York Times columnist David Brooks. David joins us this week from Philadelphia.

Mark, the punch and counterpunch over the Iraq war continued this week. Does the vice president's speech of earlier this week tell you that nothing has changed as far as the administration's concern, or that the ground is shifting on the Iraq war debate?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, I think there is no question that the vice president was the most forceful advocate, probably the most important advocate for going to war. And he remains the stoutest defender of that, of the policy. And you can see that to some degree he is playing the role that Spiro Agnew played for Richard Nixon in attacking the critics of the policy.

But I don't think there is any question, Ray, that the debate -- that the terms it of the debate have changed. I think, what most fascinated me is Jack Murtha's statement in the House of Representatives, was the first instinct of this administration when they are faced with dissent or criticism or disagreement, is to attack the critic, whether it's Paul O'Neill, the former secretary of the Treasury, or Richard Clark, the terror expert or Jack Murtha.

And they did it in such a way that I mean -- taken probably one of the most respected, influential members of the House, on both sides of the aisle, I mean, Scott McCullough compared to Michael Moore and then this woman, who is obviously not playing with a full deck from Cincinnati, Jean Schmidt accused him of being a coward -- actually made Murtha the face of the Democratic Party.

And this is a party without a spine, without a face, without mighty ideas. And they did such an enormous service by taking the face of Jack Murtha, an American hero, and enormously respected guy and doing that. And I don't think the question now is not whether we are going to leave; it's how soon and under what conditions, and not if, but when.

RAY SUAREZ: Is that right, David? Have the terms of discussion changed with the Condoleezza Rice interview, with the vice president's speech, to not if, but when, as Mark suggests?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, that has always been the issue. We've never wanted to stay there forever. I actually think the Murtha thing was a bit misleading, not because Murtha that is not a fine man but because there are only two fellow Democrats who agree with his position.

To me the most important thing that happened this week on the Democratic side were speeches by Joe Biden, who is really one of the most senior and thoughtful Democrats on foreign policy, and Barack Obama, the most promising young politician in America, and both of them distanced themselves from Murtha; both of them basically took the Bush doctrine, which was to train the troops, try to build national political institutions, and they had a few different suggestions. Biden wanted a contact group of international group to help coordinate Iraq's future.

But basically it was within the parameters that I think are the bipartisan consensus parameters. I think as you think about where we are going forward, as the Barack speech, as the Biden speech, as Hillary Clinton's comments indicated, there is a basic broad agreement on what to do how to train the forces, how to unify the Iraqi political class, how to try to heal the civil war. And so we've got a consensus going forward. We've got bitter debate about the past.

And the White House had to make an argument are we going to talk about the past. Or are we going to ignore all that stuff about prewar intelligence and just talk about the future? I think their first instinct was to talk about the future. But the president's poll numbers and especially when it came to honesty, were slipping so badly, they felt they had to go on the offensive and Dick Cheney's speech was the most forceful evidence of that.

RAY SUAREZ: So out of 475 household members, David, you are suggesting only two agree with Jack Murtha based on what, on their resolution in the house?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, I don't want to get that specific but I think it is certainly not the core Democratic position, if you talk to most Democrats I think most Democrats will say, no, we can't leave now, we can't leave within six months, we have to leave based on facts on the ground. And that's basically what Biden said, what Barack Obama said.

Now they had different suggestions, things they think the administration is not doing which they should be doing. But I think very few, especially leading Democrats think we should leave within six months.

MARK SHIELDS: I disagree with David. First of all, Jack Murtha said six months, as soon as practicable, probably six months, if you read his resolution that is exactly what it does say. There's the phony resolution that the Republicans brought up, and then apologized, members of the Republican House apologized for bringing it up afterwards, that it was such a cheap political ploy.

David is right there were three votes cast for it on both sides. But, Ray, I mean, six months brings us to what, May of 2006. We have the Pentagon saying a third of the troops will be out in 2006. We have the secretary of defense saying 20,000 troops come out after the election.

You know, we have by a five to one vote in the Senate, we have the senators going on record saying we want -- Iraqi autonomy established in 2006 and a reporting on it.

And this week we had a bipartisan group, four House members, Tom Osborne, the former Nebraska football coach and member of the House, running for governor; Ellen Tauscher, Democrat of California; Mark Udall, a Democrat from Colorado and Joe Schwarz, who had been John McCain's chairman in Michigan, all coming out and saying, urging the House to adopt that same language in the Senate bill.

I mean, there is no question this debate has changed. I mean, I haven't heard anybody talk about the beacon of democracy affecting the entire Middle East. Now it is a question of can we get out of there and not leave chaos in our wake.

RAY SUAREZ: David, the next set of elections in Iraq are scheduled for Dec. 15. If those are carried off in a relatively peaceful manner might there be a rising Republican chorus to say look, we've done more or less what we said we went in there to do; maybe it's time to start looking for the exit door?

DAVID BROOKS: Well, I mean there is already that because the war has become so unpopular. On that issue I don't disagree. But I think when it comes to the president and I think when it comes to leading Democrats, I think they are going to say we are not going to leave until the Iraqi security forces are basically ready.

And that is what George Bush has been saying for six months. He's been saying as they stand up, we'll stand down. That is the position I think most military brass have embraced for six months or maybe a year. So as the elections take place in December, you will get another step forward. And by the way, we saw a joint Sunni-Shia declaration this week with another bit of good news, sign of unification over there.

So, you know, there will be a slow progress toward where we can start withdrawing troops but I really don't think many Democrats or many Republicans are going to want to withdraw troops if it leads to the civil war. And that is the issue that we are faced with right now.

RAY SUAREZ: Just one point and that is that Jack Murtha made, and I talked to him before the speech and he's made it since, and that is that Iraqi ministry had its own poll, and 82 percent of Iraqis want us out of there. There is a move now to include that as part of the Dec. 15 referendum.

I mean, the reality is, Ray, that they don't want us there. There is a majority of Americans who don't want to be there. And the question is avoiding -- we had the Shia and Sunnis and Kurds in Cairo this week all saying they wanted the Americans out of there.

So if it comes down to Dick Cheney and George Bush wanting us to stay there, I don't think that is probably going to be enough.

DAVID BROOKS: But that is not the choice. This was the problem with the Murtha speech, frankly, and I have always had a great deal of respect, but if are you going to recommend a policy, you have to have at least a paragraph in your speech on the consequences of your policy and Murtha didn't have that paragraph in the speech.

And so when people are actually looking at the policy options, are they looking at what is going to happen if we withdraw prematurely? And I think most serious Democrats and most serious Republicans think it with be a mistake to base our withdrawal decisions based on polls here or even polls in Iraq.

No one wants to be there, but if the reality is going to be worse, I think most Democrats and most Republicans are going to say okay, we have got to stick it out.

I mean, the good news really is, though, and this is good news in obviously a terrible situation, the Iraqi troops have begun to be performing well. We have had this operation in western Iraq where the Iraqi troops have fought better than they had before, where they are beginning to hold ground.

You know, as I said before it's still a 50/50 proposition, you can't get optimistic. But we are beginning to see some of the political and military gains from the training and from the political progress.

RAY SUAREZ: Well, the president is to you going to hit the road, Mark, after the Thanksgiving break to start talking about immigration in the border states. Is this something that could successfully regain the initiative for the administration, change the topic a little bit?

MARK SHIELDS: I think there is no question they want to change the topic. There is one point that David left in that last point, I just have to take it. Serious people on both sides, I mean, the people are serious on both sides of this question. It isn't a question of one side is serious and the other is light.

And Jack Murtha assumed the consequences of this policy, he goes unlike those who wear lapel pins of Old Glory and drive with support our troops decals on their limos; he goes every week to Walter Reed and to Bethesda to comfort and console and goes to funerals of those who have fallen and knows their families. So he knows the consequences of policy. He knows the consequences of the policy that we are following.

George Bush is trying to change the subject. He is addressing a very -- it is a very serious issue, it is no question. I think he may be on the right side of history. But I think he's on the wrong side politically. His own party is split very deeply on the immigration issue.

And there is no question about it. I mean there is a strong anti-immigrant tide running in the Republican Party, fueled in part, Ray, by the fact that there is minimal enforcement along the border, our southern border with Mexico, fueled in part by the delusion of the NAFTA treaty 12 years ago that this was going to create magically a middle class and prosperity in Mexico and stop the need for Mexicans to come north to work, to make money, to support their own families.

So I think it's a tough issue for them. I admire him for taking it on. But I think it a tough issue for him to take on; it is not an easy one politically.

RAY SUAREZ: David.

DAVID BROOKS: First I'm glad Mark corrected me on that serious people -- I shouldn't have said that - as I was saying it, a little voice in my head was going, you don't really believe that, so thank you, Mark, for correcting that. I didn't meant to say serious people were all on one side.

As for immigration, I think what the president is trying to do is first he's trying to rally the base, get the conservatives back on his side by addressing border security. But there is a political strategy here which is not a bad one. And the strategy is you take this issue which fiercely divides really both parties but mostly the Republicans.

You emphasize border security this year. You try to get a border security bill which just emphasizes building a fence on the southern border through the House, which is much more conservative. Then the next year you take it over to the Senate and there you can get something which John McCain has talked about and Ted Kennedy has talked about, getting something to regularize these illegal workers that are here. And then you pass that over to the Senate. And once you've got the balanced picture then you can get back to the House and maybe the conservatives in the House will vote for a more balanced amendment.

But I think politically you do have to start with border security before you get over to the other side of the issue which is regularizing the workers.

RAY SUAREZ: But very briefly, David.

DAVID BROOKS: It is not bad idea.

RAY SUAREZ: Mark suggests this may also open up a family fight in the Republican Party. Does it carry that risk?

DAVID BROOKS: Yeah, absolutely. There is the sort of the more free market side of people who think there should be freedom of movement, people who think we need the workers. There is the more, if you want to call it, socially conservative side who are just anti-immigrant.

But I do think it's possible to see, and some people say you are beginning to see some people on the socially conservative side recognizing the reality that we need these eleven or thirteen million illegal workers. These are the people who pick the vegetables you eat every day.

And on the other side there are some of the free market side are acknowledging that the out of control border, as Mark indicated, is just unacceptable. So you if take these two approaches you can see a marriage. It will be a very problematic marriage to pull off. And that's really the political trickiness of this issue.

RAY SUAREZ: David, Mark, good to talk to you both.

FOCUS - SWEPT AWAY

RAY SUAREZ: It's been a record season for hurricanes, and much attention here has focused, naturally, on the massive damage to New Orleans and the U.S. Gulf Coast. But hurricanes have taken an equally deadly toll elsewhere in the Americas. We have a report now from Guatemala by NewsHour correspondent Jeffrey Kaye of KCET-Los Angeles.

JEFFREY KAYE: In Cua, a small farming community in the western highlands of Guatemala, what was once a neighborhood is now a graveyard. Fifty-two people died here in October when a waterlogged hillside collapsed. Tons of earth crashed down on homes and families.

ROBERTO MAZARIEGOS PEREZ (Translated): It was like a bomb, just like a bomb, with a sudden explosion. I didn't know what was coming. I ran. After two steps, the landslide hit.

JEFFREY KAYE: The devastation was caused when Hurricane Stan slammed into Central America and Southern Mexico. Rains triggered widespread flooding and landslides. Guatemala, one of the poorest nations in Latin America, was particularly hard hit.

Now, weeks after the hurricane's passage, Guatemalans confront physical and emotional devastation, smashed bridges and roads, destroyed homes and crops, neighbors and loved ones swallowed by water and earth. More than 1,500 people have been declared dead or missing.

In Cua, many people were buried alive inside a church where they had fled for shelter. Here, beneath the hardening mud, bodies are still buried. The family of Pantaleon Escalante Perez is among them.

PANTALEON ESCALANTE PEREZ (Translated): Six children and my wife-- seven all together-- were killed. Only one of my children survived, my 16-year-old son who came out from underneath that hole. Only one child survived. The others are all buried here.

JEFFREY KAYE: The devastation in Cua is repeated across Guatemala's rugged western highlands, which took the brunt of the storm's damage. The government estimates half a million people have been directly affected by the disaster. Aid groups say the number is much higher. Most victims are indigenous people, chiefly Mayans who make up more than half of Guatemala's population and who struggled with desperate poverty before the hurricane. Because of damaged roads, the remoteness of affected communities and what some charge is a slow response from the government, many residents have received no official assistance. Like others, Uvilia Lopez has found shelter and help from her family.

UVILIA LOPEZ (Translated): Thank God, my family let us live with them, but I don't know what is going to happen. I don't know where we are going to live because there is no place to live.

JEFFREY KAYE: Elsewhere, displaced families cling to the rhythms of ordinary life. In Santiago Atitlan, the Catholic church is providing one of a dozen temporary shelters set up around the town. The community is on the shore of one of Guatemala's most beautiful and tranquil places: Lake Atitlan.

Surrounded by towering volcanoes and mountains, the area is a crown jewel of the nation's tourism economy, but it is also a place that reflects the suffering and hardship that Guatemala's indigenous people have endured. A monument in the nearby Village of Panabaj honors the memory of 13 residents killed here by the army in 1990. They were among as many as 200,000 people, mostly Mayans, tortured and murdered by the U.S.-supported government during the country's 35-year-long civil war, which ended in 1996.

AMANDA FLAYER: And you can't meet a family without them having a brother, a father, that was somehow involved or unfortunately killed during that delicate time.

JEFFREY KAYE: American Peace Corps volunteer Amanda Flayer has lived and taught in the area for three years. Now, she is helping Panabaj residents cope with their latest tragedy. A few hundred yards from the war memorial, slopes collapsed and smothered a neighborhood; 80 people died, nearly half of them children.

Flayer knew many of the kids killed. She says it's been remarkable seeing how so many people with so little have responded to the catastrophe.

AMANDA FLAYER: The poorest families are bringing food, tortillas, beans. We've been amazed to see the power of the human spirit and just how well people have come together to help in this effort right now.

JEFFREY KAYE: It's impossible to separate the disaster in Guatemala from an issue that underlies much of the country's history and politics, and that is land -- who owns it and who doesn't. And here, as in much of the developing world, land use and poverty go hand in hand.

ALVARO RAMAZZINI: Many people live in very dangerous places there, and they live there because they don't have another place to live.

JEFFREY KAYE: Roman Catholic Archbishop Alvaro Ramazzini is a well known champion of the rural poor. He says because of economic and social reasons, Guatemalans are forced to live and farm in disaster prone areas.

In this country about the size of Tennessee, roughly 2 percent of the population owns 70 percent of the land.

ALVARO RAMAZZINI: In Guatemala, the ownership of the land is a big problem, and the majority of the people don't have very good land for living and growing up their produce.

JEFFREY KAYE: The village of Piedra Grande is a case study in how poor land use resulted in tragedy. Here, death came in a shower of boulders that tore through home like wrecking balls. Red flags mark dwellings completely buried beneath the rocks. A simple wreathhonors the dead.

Government civil engineer Alejandro Salim, here to help assess damage and begin reconstruction, says poor enforcement of zoning regulations combined with rampant deforestation contributed to the destruction of this community and others.

ALEJANDRO SALIM (Translated): We can see all the mountains. They should be full of pines, oaks and cypress trees. However, to survive, the community has cut down the trees to get firewood for heat and cooking.

JEFFREY KAYE: But without trees holding the soil, mountain communities are vulnerable to flooding and landslides.

ALEJANDRO SALIM (Translated): So there are many of problems here-- deforestation, the placement of homes where they aren't supposed to be, and the lack of responsibility from all levels of government. They aren't paying attention to the situation.

JEFFREY KAYE: Survivors here are just now taking the first small steps to pick up the pieces of their homes and lives. But survival here, as in other communities, may also depend on links to the United States.

Some of the houses in Piedra Grande were built with money sent back from family breadwinners working in the U.S., a common source of income throughout Latin America.

FIDEL LOPEZ (Translated): This is very painful. It's so troubling because it took a lot of work to build this house, and then seeing how it looks now.

JEFFREY KAYE: Fidel Lopez says he sent his family here hundreds of dollars a month to construct this home. After the hurricane, he returned from Los Angeles to find the house he worked three years to build largely wrecked and his wife and 14-year-old daughter dead.

Like other men in the disaster zone, Lopez says he'll take another long journey north so he can provide for what remains of his family.

FIDEL LOPEZ (Translated): Well, yes, I have to go back to be able to finish my house, to rebuild it. That's just the way it is.

JEFFREY KAYE: Those who stay will face the challenge of finding enough to eat in the weeks and months ahead. Across the western highlands, crops of corn, beans, potatoes and other staples were severely damaged by the storm. Residents farm these crops on small plots of land to feed their families and to sell in markets.

ROBERTO MAZARIEGOS PEREZ (Translated): We don't have a harvest this year. We don't have anything to eat either because everything of the destruction of crops. Everything is gone.

JEFFREY KAYE: Hugh Aprile of the humanitarian aid organization Catholic Relief Services says Guatemala is on the brink of another disaster.

HUGH APRILE: The fact that people have lost 50 percent, 75 percent, sometimes 100 percent of their crops means that we're looking at a future food security crisis that we have to deal with now, because there is already a food security problem in the country that's simply been compounded by the disaster.

JEFFREY KAYE: The United Nations World Food program reports that 200,000 children in Guatemala are in urgent need of immediate food aid. Authorities are distributing food and clothing, much of it provided by the international community. Repair work on shattered roads and bridges is also continuing, but housing is in short supply.

On the south shore of Lake Atitlan, workers, many made homeless by the disaster, are building 200 spartan, temporary homes. The U.S. Agency for International Development has provided material, part of a $14.5 million U.S. aid package to Guatemala. Diego Chulilacan, whose home was destroyed, expects to move here with his wife and six children.

DIEGO CHULILACAN (Translated): I'm also earning money here. I'm earning money. I'm here because we don't have anything.

JEFFREY KAYE: But emergency aid is a short-term solution. As Guatemalans seek relief and comfort from their latest tragedy, experts and reformers say if the nation is to prevent more death and destruction in these highlands, it must address the injustices of how and where its poorest citizens struggle to survive.

RECAP

RAY SUAREZ: Again, the major developments of this day: Shoppers crowded stores and malls across the country looking for bargains to kick off the holiday shopping season. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas presided over a ceremony marking the official reopening of the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. Iraq's foreign minister urged Japan to extend its military mission of 600 troops in Iraq. And Syria agreed to let UN investigators question five officials in the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

RAY SUAREZ: And again, to our honor roll of American service personnel killed in Iraq. We add them as their deaths are made official and photographs become available. Here, in silence, are eight more.

RAY SUAREZ: Washington Week can be seen on most PBS stations later this evening. We'll see you online and again here Monday evening. Have a good weekend. I'm Ray Suarez. Thanks for joining us. Good night.