The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour

MR. MacNeil: Good evening. I'm Robert MacNeil in New York.

MR. LEHRER: And I'm Jim Lehrer in Washington. After our summary of the news this Tuesday, we have post debate stump speeches by President Bush and Gov. Clinton, debate reaction and analysis from a group of voters, David Gergen, Mark Shields, and Linda Chavez, a report on how the presidential race is going in Ohio, and a Clarence Page essay on the glamour of gangs. NEWS SUMMARY

MR. LEHRER: The campaign for President went into the two-week home stretch today, with President Bush and Gov. Clinton both on the move. President Bush set out by train on a whistle-stop tour through Georgia and the Carolinas. He denied Ross Perot's claim in last night's debate the administration had been willing to concede Northern Kuwait to Saddam Hussein for the Gulf War. He said all documents on the matter had been turned over to Congress. Gov. Clinton and his running mate, Sen. Gore, were in Chicago in Milwaukee. Gov. Clinton repeated his last night's pledge not to tax the middle class to finance his domestic agenda. We will have excerpts from Bush and Clinton's speeches right after this News Summary. Campaign officials for Ross Perot said today he would soon begin similar campaign appearances around the country. Robin.

MR. MacNeil: Housing starts rose for the second month in a row in September. The Commerce Department today reported construction of new homes and apartments up 1.4 percent to their highest level in six months. The Northeast and South posted strong gains, but housing starts fell in the Midwest and West. The Chrysler Corporation reported a $202 million profit for the third quarter of the year. The nation's third largest automaker also made money in the second quarter. Strong truck sales, especially minivans, accounted for much of the profit. An Environmental Protection Agency survey of the nation's largest water systems has found that one in five have high levels of lead. EPA administrator William Reilly said they're not violating federal law but must monitor their lead levels closely. He also said the samples were taken right after the faucet was turned on. It's believed the lead threat is lessened if water is allowed to run through the pipes for a minute.

MR. LEHRER: The President of Bosnia agreed today to divide his country into several autonomous regions. He also said he would resign by the end of the year. That development came in Geneva during talks with the presidents of Serb-dominated Yugoslavia and Croatia. It was confused by a report that top aides to the Bosnian president had seized control of the government during his absence. There was no independent confirmation of that report.

MR. MacNeil: Police in Germany said today that Green's Party founder Petra Kelly was shot to death by her longtime companion who then shot himself. The bodies of Kelly and Gert Bastian were found last night in a house they shared in Bonn. In 1979, Kelly founded the environmentalist Green's Party which quickly became an influential force in German politics. Both she and Bastian later served in the German parliament. Police said they did not know whether Kelly was murdered or shot as part of a suicide pact.

MR. LEHRER: Residents in the U.S. territory of Guam headed for shelters today as a new typhoon bore down on them. The typhoon called Bryan was packing sustained winds of 115 miles an hour. It was expected to hit the Pacific island this evening. It comes just two months after Typhoon Omar struck Guam, causing nearly $1/2 billion damage. And that's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to Clinton and Bush speeches, debate reaction and analysis, the fight for presidential votes in Ohio, and the glamour of gangs. FOCUS - MAKING HIS CASE

MR. MacNeil: In presidential politics George Bush and Bill Clinton, as we said, were back on the campaign trail today after last night's final presidential debate. And we're going to sample their morning after speeches. President Bush began a two-day train trip through Georgia and the Carolinas. His first stop was in Norcross, Georgia.

PRESIDENT BUSH: Did anybody out here see that debate last night?

AUDIENCE: [shouting] Yes!

PRESIDENT BUSH: The thing I liked about it is we had a chance to lay out the differences, the choice for the American people, a vast difference between experience, a vast difference on philosophy, and a vast difference on character and confidence in the United States. I hope I stand for all four, and I challenge my opponent on all four. [applause and cheers] There was -- you know, there was one scary moment in that -- in that debate last night, and that's when Gov. Clinton said that he would do for America what he's done for Arkansas. You talk about a real threat. [audience booing] Here is he is running with Mr. Ozone, Sen. Gore, and Arkansas is 50th in the environmental initiatives, 49th in high school dropouts, 45th in overall well-being of children, 75 percent of the kids that graduate from high school have to get remedial reading -- remedial education when they go to college. And their -- their income and their jobs and their wages lag the nation. We cannot let him do for the United States what he's already done to Arkansas. [cheers and applause] You know, we had a chance to talk about the economy, and yes, we've been going through some tough times. But what we don't need is a dose of lousy medicine. He wants to raise taxes by 150 billion and increase spending by 220 billion, and we cannot let him do that to the United States. [crowd booing] And you know who's going to pay. He says, I'm going to sock the rich. That won't get him any money at all. What he's going to do is sock it to the cab driver and the nurse and the beautician, and the housewife, and I will protect against all these tax increases that Clinton wants to load on you, the taxpayers. [applause and cheers] You saw the differences last night on education. I want to give parents the right to choose their schools, public, private or religious, give the middle class a break, give the middle class a little relief. Health care, he wants to put a government board in there. I want to reform health care and make insurance available to all, the poorest of the poor, give the middle class a break on it, keep the government out of -- out of the health care business and let's compete and make our health care the best and most affordable in the entire world. [applause] And lastly, I made a distinction last night -- Gov. Clinton said in Richmond, it's not the character of the President that counts, it's the character of the presidency. I repeat today, especially to the young people, these two are inseparable. These two are inseparable. You cannot - - you cannot flip flop on the issues every single time. One day - - one day you said you told the full truth on your sorry draft record, and the next day it comes out you haven't. [applause] On Desert Storm, it was a proud moment for the sons and daughters of Georgia. Gov. Clinton said, well, I probably was with the minority, or I supported the minority, but I probably would have voted with the majority. You cannot waffle. You cannot turn the White House into the waffle house. [applause and cheers] It is this pattern, it is this pattern of trying to be all things to all people -- you simply cannot have a pattern of deception. And you cannot separate the character of the presidency from the character of the President. I have tried to be a faithful custodian of the trust you have placed in me. I have -- Barbara and I have tried to protect and revere the White House where we are privileged to learn -- live. And I will do that for four more years. [applause and cheers]

AUDIENCE: [shouting] Four more years!

PRESIDENT BUSH: You cannot literally flip flop on all these issues and lead. You cannot lead by misleading. You can't say one day, well, I think Toronto's great but I'm for the Braves. You've got to take a position -- I am for the Braves -- courageously. [applause and cheers] And my last point is simply this. The opposition would have you believe that the United States is a nation in decline. Gov. Clinton said, well, we're something less than -- paraphrasing -- we're something less than Germany but a little better than Srilanka. Let me tell him something. We are the best, the fairest, the most decent, and the strongest country on the face of the Earth. [applause and cheers] And yes, our economy -- yes, our economy needs fixing, but we're caught up in something global. We are an inter-dependent world. Our economy, in spite of its ailment, is doing better than Germany and Japan and England and France, and with our leadership and with our agenda for America's renewal, we are going to lead our way to economic recovery around the entire world, meaning jobs for the American worker. [applause and cheers] Thank you for this fantastic turnout. And don't let them say we are second class. We are the United States, the freest, fairest, greatest nation on the face of the Earth. And I need your support, and I ask for your vote. Thank you all and God bless you.

MR. MacNeil: Gov. Clinton was on the campaign trail in Illinois and Wisconsin. This afternoon, he spoke at an outdoor rally in downtown Chicago.

GOV. BILL CLINTON: Last night in the debate I guess everybody had their moments and somebody said something clever here and somebody else said something clever there, but when you strip it all away, there was a clear difference. With our opponent Mr. Bush after four years in which most people are working harder for less and unemployment is up and hope has been destroyed, they can't run on their record. They have no vision for the future. So everything has become politics. They said things that weren't so and just hope nobody read the morning papers when the facts were corrected. They talked about the tax record when he's got the "read my lips" burden around his shoulders. They talked about trust when he said, "Read my lips, 15 million new jobs, we are better off today than we were four years ago." How are you doing? He's been giving out money now to programs he's opposed for four years using the State Department as a tax office for his own political purposes, got the drug office -- listen to this -- tried to have the drug office repress a report showing that drug use among children in America is going up again until after the election because they didn't want it to hurt him. What about all the kids that are being hurt out here? [applause] Killed a crime bill that would have put more police officers on the street in Chicago because he didn't want to stand up to the NRA and be for the Brady Bill and require a waiting period before people can buy a handgun so you can check their criminal record, their mental history and their age. [applause] Vetoed a women's health bill that would have put more money into women's cancer research and osteoporosis and other women's health problems because he wanted to pander to the far right. And now he's got the FBI investigating the Justice Department, the Justice Department investigating the FBI, the CIA and the Justice Department calling each other liars to a federal judge, and he wants us to trust him with four more years. It's all politics, and we're not buying it this time, Mr. Bush. [applause] As one of the people, one of those 209 Americans who was in our debate in Richmond, Virginia, said last night, he still doesn't get it. We don't want these politicians talking about each other. We want them talking about the American people, their problems and their promise, and our future. That's what this ought to be about. [applause] Now you've had a chance to see us all. You know who's looking back and who's looking forward, who's appealing to your hopes and who's appealing to your fears, who's fighting for ordinary Americans who work hard and play by the rules, and who wants four more years of the same old trickle-down economics that helped the privileged few and shaft the rest of us. You know, once Mr. Bush wanted to change the format of the debates, then we had the debates and he wanted to change the subject away from the economy. Well, in two weeks, we're going to change Presidents and change the country. [applause] But I want to make it clear to all of you who are here listening, whether you're Democrats or Republicans, independents or former Perot supporters, that Al Gore and I do not seek a victory for ourselves or for our party. We want a mandate to rebuild this country and put our people first again. We want to make a real difference in our people's lives. We want to honor hard work and make sure that the people who work hard and play by the rules are rewarded, not punished. I do not want ten more years where middle class people work longer every year for less money and fall further behind and see the American dream slip away from their children. We're going to turn that around if that's the last thing we ever do. That's what this election is all about. [applause] We want to make sure we have a tax system that says that nobody, nobody who works 40 hours a week and has a child in the home should live in poverty in America. We should reward a working family and lift them out. We want America to become the last, but hopefully still the best, advanced nation in the world to finally, finally put a lid on health care costs and provide affordable health care to all Americans. We have obligations to the business and working people who have ideas and energy to help us compete in this world if they just had a government that worked again for all the people. We don't need a bigger government, but we sure need a better one, one that makes sense and works for all the people. I ask you, my fellow Americans, if you believe that you have obligations to this country, fight on for two more weeks, fight on to end trickle-down economics, fight on to say no to the politics of destruction and denial and division. Say yes to our hopes for the future. Say yes to the children. Say yes for the American dream, and together we can give our country what it deserves, a future worthy of our past, worthy of the people who are in this audience today, worthy of the people of America, worthy of everything America stands for. That is my commitment to you. Will you help me fight on for two more weeks? thank you very much. [applause]

MR. MacNeil: Ross Perot scheduled no public appearances today, although he's bought more evening network television time later in the week. Still ahead on the NewsHour, debate reaction from voters and political analysts, the race for electoral votes in Ohio, and a Clarence Page essay. FOCUS - '92 - VOICE OF THE PEOPLE

MR. LEHRER: Now some voter reaction to the final presidential debate. Throughout the past week we have heard from a group of voters we assembled in New York City to listen to each debate. It's time for their verdicts now on the candidates after all four. They gave them to Charlayne Hunter-Gault right after last night's debate. Among the topics discussed was President Bush's strategy of attack.

DR. WILLIAM EURE, Retired Physician, Republican, Hattiesburg, MS: I think the President was very effective in calling into question his integrity. Gov. Clinton appears to be rehearsed, packaged and presented like a box of soap. I think the President's weakness tonight was the fact that he was -- it was off the cuff. I don't think he spoke from his heart. I think that translated into a weaker performance, but I think that's exactly what we got from Gov. Clinton's performance.

SCOTT MacCORMACK, Computer Consultant, Republican, Denver: The more I hear Bush bring up this issue of trust. The more I don't trust Bush, it seems like that's the only thing he has to hold onto.

ROBIN GANZERT, Accountant, Democrat, Winston-Salem, N.C.: Quite frankly, during the -- Bush's administration you've had the BCCI scandal, you've had savings & loan scandal, you have Iraqgate, you have Irangate, some of the major scandals in this century have rocked our country during the Bush administration. And quite frankly, that shows for me a question of Bush's credibility. Keep in mind I voted for Bush in '88, and there's been a turnaround in these four years for me to go to Clinton's side.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Let's take a look at Perot. I mean, there were a lot of -- well, maybe not a lot, but I did see some suggestions that maybe Perot should have pulled out of this debate and should have let the two Democrat and Republican candidates go at each other. Let's talk about Perot. How did he do? And should he have pulled out? You've been the big Perot person.

ANNE GREER, Real Estate Agent, Republican, Columbus, OH: Well, I think Perot did very well tonight. He presented himself as a man that had substance to his plan, and that he had a workable plan. I mean, he's not sitting there saying, if you elect me President, I'll do this, I'll only go this far. He's saying, this is what we all have to do.

DR. WILLIAM EURE: If Ross Perot had not pulled out in July and had not chosen Adm. Stockdale as a running mate, he would be a formidable force right now.

JAMBEY CLINKSCALES, Computer Technician, Democrat, New York City: Ross Perot raises the specter of a viable third party in this country. If he had stayed in, I think the polls would be more like 33, 33, 33, than the way they are now. And for African Americans and people who are out of the main power stream, they need the possibility of a viable third party. So he makes that more realistic again. So for that reason, it's good that he's back in the process.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Let me ask you this. Obviously we have in this room some people who are committed Republicans who are still committed to George Bush, right? Or have you -- has your mind started to change?

DR. WILLIAM EURE: I'm -- at this point in time, Charlayne, I'm intending to vote for George Bush but I am reassessing what Ross Perot offers. And I'll have to decide in the next two weeks if I'm going to change my mind. But right now I'm still going to vote for George Bush.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Jason.

JASON CONLEY, College Student, Republican, Wake Forest University: Still going to vote for Bush.

STEPHEN HERRING, Substitute Teacher, Republican, Hattiesburg, MS: I feel the same way. Perot made some good points tonight. And I have never even considered him up to this point, but he said some things tonight that -- like Scott said, I thought he won the debate.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Is there anybody who -- here whose mind was made up that this debate may have changed a bit, or has it pushed any of you into a definitive position, Martha?

MARTHA MacCORMACK, Teacher, Democrat, Denver: I guess I'm back to where I was after the other debate when I said I'm confused. Perot is saying some things that intrigue me. I'm young. I can afford to take a risk. I would like to see the nation come back to its people. I would like to see a future where my husband and I can start a family and feel good about not having to spend 18 years hoping that we raise enough thousands of dollars to send our kids to college. It's a scary world out there. And the only person, the biggest issue for me, even though I'm a teacher, the biggest issue is economy, because without an economy, no matter what education you have, you can't get what you need to survive. And Perot is the only one who his giving me a viable economic base to think about for my future.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: What do you think, Scott? I know you --

SCOTT MacCORMACK: I have just the opposite problem of what you suggested. Rather than this getting things clearer, if anything, it tightened it up for me.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: In what way?

SCOTT MacCORMACK: Coming into tonight I think I was probably as - - I sort of scored it out and Clinton had a pretty good lead when I looked at all the issues and rated him. And as I said, I thought Bush did a little better tonight. And so it tightened up with Clinton still in the lead. But if I look at the whole debates, Perot has come from way out in left field for me and come into it, and is a tight viable candidate for me right now.

ALLEN RAMSAY, Graduate Student, Independent, Wake Forest University: I would say that I'm as confused as -- as Scott and Martha, that I'm having trouble -- having trouble between -- picking between, you know, untrustworthy and ineffective. I, you know, and I include Perot in that. I don't think Perot can work within the bureaucracy of government. I really don't know at this point what I'll do.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: What's it going to take?

ALLEN RAMSAY: Closing the curtain behind me on my way into the booth.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Jambey Clinkscales, you've been leaning towards Clinton but --

JAMBEY CLINKSCALES: Yeah, but, and the reason that I've been hesitant is that I feel that the Democratic success this year has been because they have distanced themselves from the labor unions and from African American concerns, and they have gone out after the Southern Reagan Democrats, and have been trying to bring them back into the party. And they've been effective to do that, and they've also created the Clinton Republicans. And in doing that, he has shown that he really doesn't want to go too far towards the issues that concern me. So that was where my hesitancy has been, but this weekend, he showed up at a -- at a Baptist church in Detroit with Ron Brown beside him. When he was asked a specific question about when and minorities in his party, he mentioned that he had an African American man as the head of his economic policy and things like that. So he's made at least verbally some movement towards the issues that concern me, erasing some of my doubt.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Gwen Clinkscales.

GWEN CLINKSCALES, Teacher, Independent, New York City: I -- I'm - - right now, as I said the last time, I'm for Clinton by default. I still think that Perot, although these issues are very interesting and -- and it was exciting to hear about them and for covert things to come out in the open, but I just after listening to Adm. Stockdale, the person that he's picked to run with him, I just could not stand behind Perot. So I'm with Clinton by default.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Let me just ask you, Jason, I mean, was your mind open to change, and could Clinton have done anything to have changed your mind, or were you going to be --

JASON CONLEY: Clinton would have presented a viable way of -- of paying for his program if he would have -- if he would have said that he would have spent -- been spending less money and taxing less, then, yes, I would have voted for Clinton because there are some things that Bush has done in the past that have upset me. But I am picking the lesser of two evils, three evils.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: All right, folks. This is the last debate. Obviously, there are other factors that are going to enter into your -- some of your minds -- to help you decide -- those of you who haven't decided -- but let me just take a quick poll now around the room, not your own personal inclinations, but just what you think in your gut. Dr. Eure, who's going to be President on November 4th?

DR. WILLIAM EURE: Bill Clinton.

MARTHA MacCORMACK: I would say Bill Clinton.

SCOTT MacCORMACK: Clinton.

ANNE GREER: I don't know. It's going to be Clinton or Perot.

JASON CONLEY: Unless Perot surges in the polls and divides the anti-Bush vote, I would have to say, alas, Bill Clinton.

ALLEN RAMSAY: Clinton.

ROBIN GANZERT: Clinton.

JAMBEY CLINKSCALES: Clinton, but closer than the polls show now.

GWEN CLINKSCALES: Bill Clinton.

STEPHEN HERRING: Clinton.

MS. HUNTER-GAULT: Well, that was very interesting, as has been all of your analysis throughout this ten-day period. Thank you so much for joining us, for taking this exercise seriously, and I know that you will take what you do on November 3rd seriously as well. Thank you again for joining us. And good luck on your way back home. FOCUS - THE IMPACT

MR. LEHRER: Now, the final debate and all of that as seen by our team of Gergen, editor at large of U.S. News & World Report, and syndicated columnist Mark Shields. They are joined tonight by Linda Chavez, former executive director of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights during the Reagan administration, now a fellow at the Manhattan Institute. David, 24 hours later, is there a conventional wisdom about what happened last night?

MR. GERGEN: I think they're the makings of conventional wisdom, Jim, certainly, widespread agreement that George Bush turned in his best performance of the campaign, indeed, I would argue the best performance since his acceptance speech four years ago in 1988 at the Republican National Convention. But at the same time a view is that while it certainly rescued his reputation, it did not do enough to turn the election around and, therefore --

MR. LEHRER: So if you were in that room in New York City, and then -- and Charlayne asked you -- you would be saying Clinton too?

MR. GERGEN: Well, I think -- the -- what we saw in that room is what I've seen around the country. I think Mark has also seen it repeatedly when he talked to groups around the country. Say, what's your preference, you get one indication. But you ask them what's the outcome, you've got almost universal belief. This is prior to the debate that Bill Clinton was going to win this. The election fundamentally has not changed. It remains today what it was before the debates, a referendum on George Bush's performance. Bill Clinton is winning this not because he's Bill Clinton but because he is not George Bush. He does not have the Bush record. That's still what's pulling the President down.

MR. LEHRER: Mark.

MR. SHIELDS: Jim, I think you have to look at the debates as a single ten-day period. You'll recall that the Bush people resisted first of all the single moderator debate, which I think the consensus holds was George Bush's performance. They had little confidence in their man. And he did turn in his best performance. It was the performance he had to turn in in the first debate, rather than the third debate. In the first debate, you plant the seeds of doubt about your opponent. The next debate you spend telling how things are going to be different, how that second term's going -- he only did half the job last night. He did it well, but if you look at the 10 days as an entity, Bill Clinton started this with a 17-point lead or thereabouts, the USA Today, CNN using one, tracking polls every single day. He ends it with somewhere about a 19-point lead. Now if you look at it that way, and everything is frozen in a campaign during the debate period, I mean, that's all people will talk about --

MR. LEHRER: But people keep saying that the debates freeze the campaign, but aren't they a part -- how can they be separated from the campaign? Aren't they "the" campaign?

MR. SHIELDS: They take over the campaign. In other words, nothing else, nothing else happens during that period. What you do is you speculate. And it's kind of like going to the World Series. You speculate. You can talk about today's pitchers, and what a great game and look forward to tomorrow's.

MR. LEHRER: Baseball fans would say that's not freezing baseball; that is baseball.

MR. SHIELDS: It is baseball, but nothing else in the campaign is happening, and there is no other argument that you're making. There's no other endorsements that are happening or -- and interesting ideas being approached. So you've ended the 10 days Clinton in better shape, stronger shape than he was, and two weeks -- only two weeks away from the election. I think that it has to be looked at it that way.

MR. LEHRER: Do you look at it that way, Linda, that things did not change, all they did was firm up what was already in place?

MS. CHAVEZ: Well, I think that is -- is what ended up happening. I think it might have been very different if George Bush had turned in the performance that he did last night in the first debate. I think then he would have had much more conjecture about whether or not he could, in fact, pull it out. But I think given the fact that it was really in the last debate that we saw him aggressive, but we saw him articulating a point of view defending his administration and raising questions about potential Bill Clinton administration that that I think was too late.

MR. LEHRER: You're Republican. What is the speculation within supporters of -- within the groups of people who support President Bush as to why it took this long for him to do what he did last night?

MS. CHAVEZ: Well, it's really been something that has plagued George Bush's presidency since day one. And I think a lot of it was a reaction to the Reagan administration and to the way in which President Reagan went over the heads of the media, talked directly to the people. There was really a sort of showcasing. And I think there are a lot of people who came into this administration very antagonistic towards the Reagan style. They didn't want to put George Bush in the East Room for his press conferences. They didn't hold them in prime time; they put him in the briefing room. He talked directly to the media, and then only -- the only thing that we saw was the little bit of sound bite that was on the evening news. It was a very different strategy than President Reagan's. It was clearly one that George Bush was more comfortable with, but I don't think it served him well over the three and a half years.

MR. LEHRER: I saw you nodding, David.

MR. GERGEN: Well, I do feel that there was a very strong effort, as Linda says, early on to get away from the scripting of Reagan. And Bush felt himself that it was too much scripting, and he was unhappy with all the handling he got during the '88 campaign. But I felt in recent months, Jim, one of the things that's been afflicting the Bush White House is a lack of confidence in the President, himself. I mean, to go to Mark's point, with a single moderator format, it turned out he was by far and away at his best. He -- you know when you keep telling a guy, you're not very good at this, it gets him down. I think he finally got some fire in him when he went out there and did it on his own. I think he's a much more effective speaker and can be a much more effective communicator when he has the self-confidence and knows what he's going for and drives for it. And that's why I thought he was better last night.

MR. LEHRER: One of the conventional wisdoms that I heard today was that all three of those men were seen at their best last night, that if the average voter turned on and wanted to see Bill Clinton as Bill Clinton at his best and George Bush at his best and Ross Perot at his best, that was, that was there. Do you agree with that?

MS. CHAVEZ: Well, I think the one who put in a slightly weaker performance was Bill Clinton. And I'm saying that not because I happen to disagree with a lot of what he said, but I think in terms of his performance in some of the other debates, I thought he was, Bill Clinton was at his best in Richmond, when he was playing the sort of Phil Donahue role. He was sitting on the stool, sort of comfortably, when he'd get up and he'd walk toward the audience. I thought he was much better in that forum. He sounded a little bit stiffer last night. He sounded a little bit too much like the "policy walk," to use a phrase I hate. But I think that you're right. Ross Perot as, in fact, very, very strong last night. And what was surprising, even in listening to the focus group that we've just heard, was how many people really believe that Perot is going to surge andthat there really is this uncapped support out there.

MR. LEHRER: Is that -- is that real, in your opinion, Mark? I mean, is Ross Perot somebody that somebody better start paying attention to now?

MR. SHIELDS: I think, I think, yes. I think Ross Perot -- there's an old rule about debates, Jim; they always help the underdog. And Ross Perot was the underdog most helped by these debates. He came - - this was a fellow who was in single digits a week ago, six, five or six points, incredibly negative scores, written off, derided by some people on this panel, and --

MR. LEHRER: On this very program.

MR. SHIELDS: On this very program, this very panel, yet he surged to the point where last night one survey showed a majority of Americans thought he was best on the deficit. A plurality thought he did best on the economy. If he set out to redeem his reputation and to somehow rewrite that cover of Newsweek, quitter, I think he did it last night. I think if he gets further scrutiny the next two weeks, I think what you'll hear emerge is the phrase used by a voter in Camden, New Jersey, and a focus group who have said Ross Perot -- he compared Ross Perot to Rosie Louise. Now for those who aren't sports fans, Rosie Louise, in a Boston marathon - -

MR. LEHRER: Quickly.

MR. SHIELDS: Boston marathon, the Boston marathon, Rosie Louise was a person who finished first, and she is -- the laurels were thrown out on her, and it turns out that Rosie Louise jumped in the race with a mile to go. I thought it was a perfect analogy. She avoided the heartbreak hills. He avoided all the scrutiny, all the hard work, all the heavy lifting, and is buying $60 million worth of television, shows up in the three debates, but he was good.

MR. GERGEN: Without pursuing that, we'll leave Rosie for a moment, Jim, I'm in a minority here in believing that while George Bush was excellent last night, I also thought Bill Clinton was first rate. I thought he helped himself a lot. I think over the course of these three debates, he showed enrichment of -- Linda was talking about this -- that he could connect the people emotionally, that he could reach them in their hearts. I felt last night he showed a competence, he showed a -- a mastery of the subject at hand and kept the focus on what he wanted to talk about, which is the economy. And what I think has helped him a lot in both of the last two debates is he's been willing to stand up occasionally for something he believes in, to take issue with people, to say here's what I believe, and then to flare. He flared a couple of times last night with the President. I think he helped himself. I thought he had a very good debate. And the polls show today one of the things that's the trouble with the Republicans today is there are four national polls, and two of them the President won. One -- two of them Clinton won --

MR. LEHRER: Clinton won.

MR. GERGEN: -- one Perot won; one was a tie between Clinton and Perot. All four polls, all four polls found the President finishing third.

MR. LEHRER: Now, one analysis of that, that I heard somewhere, was that maybe people have tuned this thing out, that they -- that they'd already made their decision and there was a confirming exercise. Is that possible, Linda?

MS. CHAVEZ: Oh, I think that's very much what happened, and I think it's been easy to tune out George Bush for two reasons. One is I think the media has been very unkind to him. I think that filter has not been positive for George Bush. But secondly, he hasn't been as sharp and crisp in being able to present his vision. It'ssomething that, again, has troubled him throughout the administration. And for that reason I think it's like background noise. He's not been really able to grab the attention.

MR. LEHRER: What do you predict is going to happen these next two weeks, Mark? I don't mean -- well, you can put it as specifically or generally --

MR. SHIELDS: I do want to say that David Gergen was absolutely right, and it was confirmed last night when he said the big mistake the Bush people made was having Ross Perot in those. Last night Ross Perot proved it. If it had been a one-on-one last night with George Bush on top of his game, it might have been an interesting thing. It might have really had a dynamic effect on this campaign. But every time that Bush started to move on him, there was Perot taking a shot at Bush and bringing him right back down to earth. And Gergen was absolutely right on that. The next two weeks --

MR. LEHRER: But he's wrong on everything else.

MR. SHIELDS: No, no, no.

MR. GERGEN: I was wrong about Perot and Mark was right about Perot being good for the country to be in the debates. I thought he'd be a diversion. And I -- and I -- Mark said it would be better for the country. I think in the end it was better.

MR. LEHRER: Just because he's always there saying, hey --

MR. GERGEN: Yeah. Mark is right.

MR. SHIELDS: And is the campaign's conscience. I mean, I think he is this campaign's conscience.

MS. CHAVEZ: Not to mention he's the most entertaining --

MR. SHIELDS: He is. He is. That's right. He's the only that appeared to be having fun.

MR. LEHRER: But he keeps saying, you know, those other two guys, you know, I'm here and I'm different than both of those other two guys.

MS. CHAVEZ: But he's right about that. And I think that is why he's touching a cord with certain people in the electorate is he is the only one who has not been part of the Washington scene or the government scene. And I think there is a sense that you need someone like a Ross Perot to shake things up.

MR. GERGEN: I do -- to go to your question though, I think that Bush in the next two weeks --

MR. LEHRER: Which Mark is about to answer.

MR. SHIELDS: What are you going to get, some Lawrence Welk music here, Jim?

MR. LEHRER: All right. Excuse me, David. Mark gets to answer the question first, and if there's any time left, then you can answer it.

MR. SHIELDS: No. I think that Bill Clinton has a chance, a good chance, to help his presidency, if there is to be one, start off on the right foot. Last night he twice took a shot at the Congress gratuitously, okay, saying, well, the Congress -- Bush had requested greater appropriations than the Congress did, and it was a kind of a ha ha. For Bill Clinton to be a successful President, he has to first be, as successful Presidents have always been, a leader, and strong leader of an undivided party. He's got to start out right now, the next two weeks, saying I want accountability, I want responsibility.

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Shields, your time is up. Mr. --

MR. GERGEN: What was that --

MR. LEHRER: Mr. Gergen, final few seconds.

MR. GERGEN: The President has a serious problem now because Bill Clinton for the next two weeks is going to be in control of environments. Everything's going to be controlled. It's very, very hard to take the debate away from him now. Perhaps he can do it. I think the President helped himself. He'll get big crowds, friendly crowds, good crowds. Maybe we'll see the race tighten up, but it's a tough one for the President now.

MR. LEHRER: Linda, gentlemen, thank you. FOCUS - OHIO - BATTLEGROUND STATE

MR. MacNeil: Next, the fight for presidential votes in Ohio. Ohio's 21 electoral votes are key to potential Republican victory formulas. The so-called Reagan Democrats put the state in the Republican column the last few elections. That's a pattern the Bush campaign says will continue, despite a strong Democratic advantage in recent opinion polls. Correspondent Elizabeth Brackett reports.

MS. BRACKETT: A crisp fall Ohio day. The freshmen at Parma High School in suburban Cleveland were down by seven points, but hoping for a comeback. They're not alone. President George Bush is also looking for a turnaround in his this crucial suburban area. George Bush and Ronald Reagan won in these suburbs in the last three elections, but this time, President Bush is in trouble. The Parma freshmen are too. They dropped their sixth straight game. That didn't stop their mothers from cheering, but when it came to politics, these two were as divided as their town.

DONNA HERDER: I voted for Bush last time. I don't think he did enough with keeping jobs in the country, and I don't think he accepted the recession. He kept saying, I don't think we're in a recession. And that sort of put me off. I think he's a good man, but I just think Clinton can do it this time.

JOAN SZAGULAK: I'm just the opposite. I voted for President Bush last time. I'm going to vote for him again. Things have gotten bad, but I think -- I think America expects too much from a President. He can only do so much, and there is Congress, the House of Representatives, a lot of things have to go in his favor. I don't think everybody's helped him as much as they could. And I think the way he handled the war.

MS. BRACKETT: Herder and Szagulak are like many others in this largely ethnic, blue collar suburb who grew up voting Democratic then switched to the Republicans with Ronald Reagan. Conservative, social and religious values still dominate here, and serving the country is one of them.

JOAN SZAGULAK: I wouldn't vote for Clinton. My husband served in the war. I had two brothers in the war. I lost friends in the war. I believe when America needs you, you should answer. And I think that's wrong. And his -- his neglect of telling the truth made me mistrust him.

MS. BRACKETT: Bingo as well as football reflect traditional values here. Yet, it is still the economy that dominates as voters make up their minds. Northeastern Ohio has never fully recovered from the big layoffs that rocked the auto and steel industries here in the early 1980s. Productivity is up at the General Motors plant in Parma, but there are almost 4,000 fewer jobs here than in 1979. Dan Flannery has lived through many of those changes. He and his wife, Mary, have raised nine children on his wages from his job as an electrician. He's worked at the GM plant for the past 15 years. The Flannerys voted for Bush and Reagan. Now they're not sure who they'll vote for, though they are angry that the weak economy has made it tough for their oldest son to find a job.

TOM FLANNERY: I didn't think it would be as bad as it is, not so much for myself but just the number of people that I graduated with that still aren't working, or the people that have taken jobs making, you know, five to ten thousand dollars less than what they expected two or three years ago.

MS. BRACKETT: What about you as parents, did you think once you'd gotten your son through college that he'd still be looking for a job?

DAN FLANNERY: Not this long.

MARY FLANNERY: No. I knew it would be a while because he is not experienced, but I really thought by now he'd pick up something, even something to give him experience along the way. He's not looking for, you know, the presidency. He's willing to go to the bottom of the ladder and start up.

MS. BRACKETT: How much do you blame the Bush administration for the troubles that you're having finding a job?

DAN FLANNERY: The Bush administration is spending twice as much money training people for employment in South America as they are in the United States. I bought two by fours last night in a lumber yard. The clerk told me he was a college graduate. That was the best job he could get.

MARY FLANNERY: It's very interesting when you walk around and see how many people are working at McDonald's or places like this that just need money to sustain them and while they're out looking for a job.

MS. BRACKETT: Bill Clinton thought Cleveland suburbs like Parma, home to many Reagan Democrats, were important enough to bring his bus tour here.

BILL CLINTON: Let me tell you what I think the issue is. Two- thirds of the American people are working harder today for less money than they were making 20 years ago.

MS. BRACKETT: Clinton spoke outside what may be the only fast food perogi restaurant in the country. Started by 32-year-old entrepreneur Mary Paldrewy two years ago, the restaurant has taken off, despite tough economic times. Most of Paldrewy's seven brothers and sisters work in the restaurant with her, including her sister, Susan Finelli.

SUSAN FINELLI: It's hard, you know, because there's a lot going against small business. You know, Bush is definitely more the upper class and stuff, so we're considered middle class, and we're looking for somebody that's going to give us that type of support.

SPOKESMAN: [on phone] I just wondered if we can count on your support for President Bush this fall.

MS. BRACKETT: The regional coordinator for Bush/Quayle says he knows his man is in trouble with the traditional ethnic vote.

JIM TRAKAS: I think that he's going to be very competitive in what we call the perogi vote, or the suburban vote. There's no question about it. People have had problems. Unfortunately, a lot of the problems have been blamed on George Bush. Not all of them are his fault. A lot of the thing has to do with trusting the Congress to work with them, and then they turned on him and he's been too much a gentleman, in my opinion, to really go out and say this is why this economy's in bad shape at this point in time.

MS. BRACKETT: The President has found support here among Eastern Europeans who credit the Bush administration with the dramatic changes of the last few years in the Eastern Bloc countries. President Bush was warmly received when he visited Parma's St. Josephfat's Church in May.

PRESIDENT BUSH: As the a of the United States I will keep working for freedom around the world. And with your support, I know we will be successful in seeing these European and former Soviet republics become free and whole with the people enjoying a life they never would have dreamed of. Thank you may God bless the United States of America. Thank you.

MS. BRACKETT: Parmanians, ethnic or not, like bowling just as much as they like perogis. Some say Parma has more bowling lanes per capita than anyone else in the country. But in the bowling alleys we again found the economy outweighing all else.

DAVE DENNER: I've been unemployed for the last six months during the summer. I went to countless, countless interviews, jobs, oh, you're qualified, we'd love to have you, you're a great guy, blah, blah, blah, and no one ever called back. And it was very discouraging, very hard.

MS. BRACKETT: Dave Denner did find a job, but his experience made him angry, and he says he could not vote for George Bush again.

DAVE DENNER: By voting for Clinton, we probably have a better chance of getting out of the mess that we're in. I think that another four years of Bush we'd probably end up with the same thing, especially with a Democratic Congress being in there at the same time. I think you just would have a real tough go at it.

MS. BRACKETT: The importance of Parma and of bowling has not escaped the Bush campaign. Barbara Bush came to York Town Lanes in Parma last Thursday. Her rhetoric was more successful than her bowling.

BARBARA BUSH: The economy has started to come back. You know, in a worldwide recession where every other country has economic problems that fluctuated back and forth, we have remained pretty stable. We are the world's largest exporter, and we're starting up again now. Don't rock the boat. Let's get it going. Let's continue what we're doing.

MS. BRACKETT: That evening in the bar at York Town Lanes, the local debate was more heated than the national debate on the big screen.

MAN: Bush didn't lie?

MAN IN BAR: He admitted it.

MS. BRACKETT: For the Reagan Democrats in the bar, it was Ross Perot, not Bill Clinton, who was giving the President a run for their vote.

SECOND MAN IN BAR: I was raised a staunch Democrat. My grandfather, I met Jack Kennedy when I was 12-years-old. It was a great thing for me.

MS. BRACKETT: Did you vote for George Bush last time?

SECOND MAN IN BAR: Yes.

MS. BRACKETT: And Ronald Reagan?

SECOND MAN IN BAR: I voted for Reagan once.

MS. BRACKETT: The second time, or the first time?

SECOND MAN IN BAR: The second time.

MS. BRACKETT: But you're not considering voting for a Democrat, for Bill Clinton this time?

SECOND MAN IN BAR: No. I just want the best person in there. Someone has to take care of our problems. I mean, we have just overspent everything, and we've got to have controls. And the real cost is in running the government. They just can't keep spending and spending and spending. It's ridiculous. I mean, you have companies right now that have restructured since 1985 to save jobs and to save money. The government has to do that.

MS. BRACKETT: And who do you think is best addressing that?

SECOND MAN IN BAR: It's either Bush or Perot.

MS. BRACKETT: The Perot factor will be critical in a race as close as Ohio's where several statewide polls show Perot hurting Clinton, not Bush. The Bush camp knows it needs the help of Perot, or a mis-step by Clinton to reclaim the critical suburban vote in Ohio. Dan Quayle will spend the next two days in the state in an effort to try and close that gap. ESSAY - GANG GLAMOUR

MR. LEHRER: Finally tonight, an essay about the glamour gangs. The essayist is Clarence Page of the Chicago Tribune.

MR. PAGE: The star-studded crowds that filled the gallery of the John Gati trials reveal a side of Americans we don't much like to talk about, yet, we can't deny. It's the side that loves gangsters, so much we just can't seem to get enough of them. We love the regal elegance of the Godfather. We love the working class bonding of "Good Fellahs." We feel differently about street gangs, but not much differently.

[SCENE FROM WESTSIDE STORY]

MR. PAGE: We love the gangs Leonard Bernstein created for us in Westside Story, this updating of Shakespeare's senseless and tragic family feud in Romeo and Juliet meshed well with the senseless turf wars of modern Sharks and Jets. The street gangs created for stage and screen look more vicious to us today, but that's only because we insist on more realism. But here too the MTV-approved glamour of gangs for rap tell the story of senseless self-destruction. Gangs of European immigrant youths have evolved into black and Latino gangs. They have guns. They have drugs. And they pay a terrible price. These days, the leading killer of young black males is homicide. Put another way, the leading killer of young black males is other young black males. For those of us who survey the carnage it is like black author Mya Angelu wrote, "In these bloody days and frightful nights when an urban warrior can find no face more despicable than his own, no ammunition more deadly than self- hate, and no target more deserving of his true aim than his brother, we must wonder how we came so late and lonely to this place." One community that wondered was the Chicago suburb of Evanston. Illinois, liberal, racially integrated, and proud of it, Evanston like countless other suburbs is inheriting problems from the big city nearby, including a violent gang problem. Evanstonians came up with a novel response, a public service announcement that tries in a very pointed and controversial way to deglamorize the gangs.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: If they gave medals for killing black people, this gang would win a bronze [Neo Nazi shown], this gang the silver [Ku Klux Klan shown], but it won't be a hate group that wins the gold. If you're in a gang, you're not a brother, you're a traitor.

MR. PAGE: Whether you see this ad on your local television stations will depend largely on how it's received here in Evanston. Most of those who have seen it express resounding approval, but for others, it raised a host of hostile racial questions. Critics of the ad disrupted a news conference held to announce release of the ad to TV stations.

MAN: They're saying that these people are the problem; these people. I have a problem with that, because I happen to be one of these people.

WOMAN: This is not a question of race or how black the commission is or how white the commission is. We are talking about children in this community --

MR. PAGE: The ad touched off a powder keg of laden unresolved feelings we Americans have about ourselves. Would it make kids afraid of gangs, or make everyone afraid of young black males? Would it invite young blacks to put down their weapons, or kill more whites to even up the score? But at least people are talking. For years, Evanstonians tried to deny they had a gang problem, just as the nation is afflicted by national denial. We wring our hands over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Yet, we seem to have given up on the massacre taking place in our own backyard. If television and radio stations go along with it, an anti-gang ad like Evanston's might reach a few kids, and that'll make it worthwhile. One young gang member reportedly burst into tears when he saw it. But real solutions will require more. To fight gangs, communities will have to pull together across lines of race and class, and must help young people by providing new choices like a job, counseling, and sometimes a shoulder to lean on, so they have somewhere to go for a sense of belonging besides a gang. When you look at the bickering this anti-gang ad touched off, it makes you wonder whether we can talk about these things anymore, even within the black community, much less across racial lines, or whether resentment of racism has rendered us unable to root out those who would destroy our home from inside. A community under siege is not eager to engage in self-criticism, but it would be a double tragedy if vigilance against our enemy from without blinded us to the enemy within. I'm Clarence Page. RECAP

MR. MacNeil: Again, the major stories of this Tuesday, President Bush denied Ross Perot's charge that the administration was prepared to allow Saddam Hussein capture part of Kuwait before the Gulf War. Mr. Bush said evidence to the contrary had been given to Congress. Gov. Clinton again denied that he would raise taxes on the middle class even if more money was needed to fund his domestic agenda, and housing starts rose in September to their highest level in six months. Good night, Jim.

MR. LEHRER: Good night, Robin. We'll see you tomorrow night with a campaign issue and debate segment on the economy and jobs. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.