The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

as business nbc it can be done this is america and diesel businesses and individuals to choose to see it to finance their efforts funding for this program has been provided by the corporation for public broadcasting and viewers like you good evening i'm jim lehrer welcome to our special newshour ninety six election night coverage we will be here for the next five hours with full coverage and analysis of the presidential and congressional races throughout the country are thirteen as president mark shields an alter ego michael beschloss doris kearns goodwin haynes johnson and bill kristol pollster andy co op ed and rhetoric expert kathleen hall jamieson most congressional watchers thomas mann and ron elving partisan activists vin weber for the republicans out

from for the democrats david gergen dialogues with writers bob woodward and elizabeth drew we will also be going to our individual regional commentator cynthia tucker lee caller mike barnicle that would weaken robert kettle and clarence page and will have full coverage of the major events including victory and concession statements from candidates and appropriate others the driving editorial force throughout this evening of course will be the numbers the results as they come and and some already have as of shortly after eight pm eastern time on the home and has them as he will have all the quarreling those numbers right now are five state projections all for bill clinton tonight beginning with ohio president clinton has been declared by the associated press to be the winner in the state of ohio with twenty one electoral votes following ohio in the state of west virginia president clinton also declared projected to be the winner by the associated press five electoral votes in west virginia in the state of florida president clinton in a state that he used

really wanted to win has has done so apparently twenty five electoral votes in florida in the state of vermont clinton again declared the winner three electoral votes and vermont in new hampshire also president clinton projected to be the winner tonight with four electoral votes in new hampshire are looking at the totals for tonight thus far president clinton winning with those five states in all their electoral votes fifty eight electoral votes none for bob dole or for ross perot looking at the raw totals of the eu thus far forty six percent for dole forty six percent for clinton ate for pro with two percent of the precincts reporting those are the results are up to the minute as we have now i think you come into a syndicated columnist mark shields and to wall street journal columnist politico we're all evening marked with in the beginning is that i'm very auspicious for bill clinton ohio is a must win state for bob dole and the florida no doubt that as guy for this was

nineteen seventy six when jimmy carter the first native son since woodrow wilson i too will seek the presidency carrying the sense that has been reliably republican three words that probably explain the platoon want for the on his extensive campaign medicare medicare medicare all ohio is a state that republicans have to have to win the presidency it's the ultimate swing state there's been lots of industrial union in the north and the northeast and in the southern it's more like kentucky and you have strong holds republican strongholds of cincinnati and so on but they're that says it's it's a very auspicious beginning for for brooklyn and new hampshire i think it may be the first signal of the republicans doing poorly in the northeast says or the second time a democrat carried new hampshire since nineteen sixty four the last time was nineteen eighty two so it is auspicious beginning i thought everybody is looking at this and the

nonpartisan basis we have two persons or watching this tonight with margaret warner ordered thanks jim wamsley and let's look at first at ohio the dole campaign a banner boasting album ingenue she first this is once again vin weber who was co chairman of the dole campaign is now from head of the democratic leadership council and the dole campaign essentially abandoned ohio about three weeks ago why california was the most important strategic imperative for the republican party broadly assembles canon cn and maybe in some ways more importantly for congress whether at least six party congressional seats at stake in the state of california and so most of our resources ribbons in california but the polls have been closing in ohio on the last week or two where we anticipated that would be a a highly competitive state certainly it's tough for us and we'll put together a majority without the state ohio and he can be the projections the early

projections here crack that's not good news for us why do you think i think that what the president says none has taken away the issues that had been the core the republican presidential walk economic growth and opportunity crime welfare and that's alarming to compete not only in ohio but in florida when florida and hampshire states with republicans have always been very low and that at the heart of a republican political republican presidential vote i don't disagree with my friend now but when i carry florida there's another issue and another implication for his presidency if any president is reelected if he wins florida it's not because of issues alfonso it's because the democratic spirit scare tactics over the issue of medicare if you're projecting ahead to how a clinton presidency as we would govern the country for the next four years that's an ominous sign because the growth of entitlement spending is a problem that's a problem republican democrat observers if they're serious about both recognize and this president and this party democratic party's campaign of almost

terrorism on this issue resolved and perhaps tonight in the carrying of the state of florida by president clinton these are very tough time dealing with that issue if indeed israel and then that's not really right i mean sure medicare helped president clinton former president clinton it came very close to winning for the last time democrats have always done well on the medicare issue that's part of our that's a core issue for us the difference that for president clinton is that he has been able to take away the issues that republicans are part of our roots they were talented from medicare social security the traditional democratic issues do you think that the president's apparent win in florida tells us something about his strength in the south or is do not consider florida part of the south's are culturally and in another ways but i think the most interesting thing about well what would be likely to see tonight as presents competitive almost all over the country

and don't forget the eight years ago we were coming off the republican lock on the electoral college but the democrats were out of it we might know a couple years ago and i got the ninety four election how one international news magazines have a congress and the party was over what we've been able to do this come back on the issues that the broad presidential elections and i'm not going to deny that medicare was in education no we're not important but without taking with a crime issue the welfare issue in the prosperity issue of growth and opportunity issue the present and women in real trouble trouble talk about new hampshire now the president did win in ninety two but it was only with oscar winning twenty plus percent has been a bastion of conservatism public innocent how do you explain that i don't really think in new hampshire were witnesses wore a series of local errors on the part of the public party i'm not taking away from the president some progress these days but that we

had some serious problems instead of insane hampshire promises senator smith who looks like a debate tonight was the chairman of the graham campaign in that state which didn't play well in new hampshire have less responsive to his three other things locally analysis have combined to really put the republican party and so if you're a new hampshire us the president's done well we republicans have to look at the results in northeastern mr savant one of the republican party had been united and operating smoothly military action that looked into new hampshire with a win the senate seat with that sweat would win the governorship with jeanne shaheen i don't know about the about the house race is yet but they're both competitive the fact is that it's again a state where the democratic party by moving to the center has been able to reverse the long term republican dominance ruins everything in your terms of embracing republican issues and you know wealthier issue to talk about how his our issue this report and welfare

bill passed signed by president clinton put that issue on the table are well because you know he signed the bill he he made well for a national issue he campaigned in making it today and welfare as we know it is on the building and i generally get there for now thanks all that's of course a point that you've made many times does that go public to bob dylan republicans issued this very free tonight well especially in the cultural values issues here ninety nine to was the death penalty this time it was symbolic issues like school uniforms for example ah he had our own drugs after knowing for the first couple of years is that it has really the first democrat since george thats the george mcgovern debacle to try to recapture the center on values issues and he gave it frankly he occupied that but that middle ground and made it more difficult for them for the republicans than weber's point about entitlements and vitamin c is at medicare

medicare medicare is about a minute to go i think a gym did you just want one quick pleasure i'm there and it's that that the republicans gave bill clinton i think elf on a good point brooklyn had neutralized the crime issue i did was gave a great opening republican side of the national rifle association is simply substance an assault weapon and when they can democrats images that you get the nra over here and you get police officers and blessing the president and pushing his candidacy him standing shoulder to shoulder with them it works it works it works for the democrats in it we saw in every every measurement public opinion issued it was absolute watch between the two parties if anything the slightest the democrats are trying to shoot this wasn't i was concerned it is entitlement reform was the savings and loan quick one of the nineteen eighty eight campaign in nineteen eighty six and that it got michael gikas get to it was snl what actually undebated a major vocal

campaign and then afterwards i said oh my god we get this incredible thing it's one trillion dollars which it was about every alley in this country with fewer workers be required to underwrite more recipients medicare and social security is going to have to be addressed and it wasn't in this campaign it was though marcus it was addressed by the democrats' meeting with a stick every republican they possibly could and that's the point that they think it's the potential problem the second term because i'm president by using that issue is going to make it more difficult to fix the problem when you talk about the second term i don't know how many hours you know that a minute to that to the rhetoric of his campaign or distort a metro unintelligible somebody with special expertise on that very eerie ryanair special expertise is from kathleen hall jamieson kathleen you heard the argument here about what made the difference in california

florida or without some say make your marks a mechanic america some say democratic scare tactics but still coming back to medicare how you see me let's look at what the candidates said the voters have but both clinton and dodd said was medicare doesn't matter in this election and we looked at the speeches given by clinton and by dole in september and october we found that fifty seven percent of the speeches clinton gave and sixty four percent the speeches don't get mentioned medicare is an issue where they say when they talked about medicare or essentially they were not engaging the issue to talk about the solutions that they were offering a role in the debates they agree that we're going to have a bipartisan commission to take out of politics and so since morsi's speech segments didn't get through to the public the next place where to turn for information has to be advertising and there the democrats did in fact use medicaid medicare very very effectively in fact the most often hear deception in the clinton ads concerned medicare if you look at the thirty seven acts that the clinton campaign offered to the electorate from the beginning of the convention

to me yesterday what you see is that nine of them sad that the democrat the republicans would slash medicare or they would cut it by two hundred and seventy billion dollars problem with that claim is that both the democrats and republicans were going to cut the rate of increase republicans agree to cut deeper but they were really cut the rate of increase the larger issue is with either of them going to save medicare for the baby boomers in the answer is now either of those cuts were substantial enough accomplish that objective but the republicans never managed to come back on the issue so clinton was there a week after week after week say slash rickers slash medicare the airwaves have no response from gaul until the end of october when he puts up an ad that says it quotes they have put an ad saying last year though gingrich tried to make her back to her seventy billion the new nasa says it's wrong annie up he agrees aarp protested republicans will be at the third american association of retired persons right so the third of november now we're on the eve of the election republicans are dull finally put up an ad that says no american should

question my commitment to medicare the aarp flatly stated that our plan will increase medicare spending seven percent a year it took at all until the eve of the election to find the message that would communicate to the american people the missing piece the clinton indictment and it's also the year ahead of the debates point out what you're talking about in the hands right the debates were more likely to have been seen by older viewers were more likely to watch all the way through in other words florida's influenced by debate i let's let's look at the yeah the excerpt from the debate and see what you're talking about i think we have it thanks steve preventive care and low inflation rate prices in paying providers without premium increases in out of pocket costs that

the boat that i vetoed with that band that it was ten years do with medicare wouldn't you say security have a look at what we have to say that when the baby boomers retire it's fair to say that elite were working up in this a political year because the wind politics of medicare at this year's over was resolved that we do so securely in nineteen eighty three the nonpartisan commission ronald reagan got together tip o'neill and howard baker the republicans want democrats on the commission i was on the commission that is all rested so scared we suggested i think in over year ago that we do the same with medicare you're trained i see the difference in those two preconditions clinton is highly specific here's what we've done here so we go if we're going to do i'm gonna save medicare for the baby boomers don't worry don't never does get to sign the single most important thing he could say we're going to increase the rate of

growth of seven percent and we're going to preserve medicare through the bipartisan commission that i agree to and he should be adding and he has kind of tangential way i've had experience doing that i was on the commission save social security so a difference in perception but also a difference of the level of reassurance on this very important issue if that symptomatic of other stuff you got to go into it now that is that a metaphor for a lot of the others issues going to the us if you look at any sixty to ninety seconds of clinton and any sixty to ninety seconds of dough on a given topic what you'll find is a higher level of optimism specificity and reassurance from clayton more tangents more specificity from bill and tweak the lines so as an important issue because it faces the next president it involve sacrifices that we have not discussed which are necessary to important constituencies guarantee of social contract has to be preserved and medicare is to be there for the baby boomers when they reach retirement and yes we have some results know we're going to call home and honor nature we have more state

projections in the presidential race first of all in the state of pennsylvania president clinton has been projected the winner by the associated press he will pick up according to the projection twenty three electoral votes from pennsylvania in the state of illinois clinton again projected the winner twenty two electoral votes in illinois in the state of michigan eighteen electoral votes clinton again projected the winner in the state of new jersey clinton projected the one or fifteen electoral votes in the state of massachusetts twelve electoral votes clinton projected the winner in tennessee clinton projected the winner eleven electoral votes in tennessee in maine president clinton once again projected the winner for electoral votes and maine in the state of maryland clinton is again the projected winner ten electoral votes in maryland down in georgia where in connecticut first president clinton again projected the winner in the state of connecticut eight electoral votes in the state of connecticut and in the

district of columbia with three electoral votes president clinton projected the winner and on an oklahoma senator bob dole has gotten on the board in terms of state no state victories dollars projected the winner in the state of oklahoma eight electoral votes there for bob dole his first eight projected win and in his home state of kansas board rejected the window with six electoral votes now looking at the entire electoral map up till now president clinton has been projected to have won enough states to garner one hundred eighty six electoral votes bob dole projected to win fourteen electoral votes known for ross perot at this time looking at the raw presidential numbers the percentages are tied at forty six between president clinton and bob dole as a percent of the vote and those are the latest results up to the minute so let's say if the trunk and injured continues as a mom was it is i mean it's

it's a virtual sweep in the eastern time zone we don't have the carolinas tennessee squadron and yet a surprise to report you know all afraid still afraid not looks like that in fact the states that have close of the polls have closed down that we have not had a winner declared our stage revue post called carol the carolinas and looks like texas the polls closed at eight those those words about austin indiana bubbles kentucky bubbles to competitive but not i had a half even have them in the column people are with elizabeth warren's words us some thoughts about what really riding on this election was about oh those are really terrific advantage of those for people to get their views on what was at

stake in that election but they're technical problem hadn't yet there are couldn't get their of their sound up but we do not have yet it also the projections from those states in the uk and some of the other senate races we do and from the we didn't have a car we were to declare mcconnell the web is associated press deserted glenn mcconnell the winner in kentucky we also in mississippi thad cochran there's been declared the winner in and jay rockefeller in west virginia strom thurmond the army reported that earlier is that is the winner in and south dakota south carolina you mentioned the carolinas earlier also an oklahoma which was won by by senator durbin animal has been re elected to the united states senate end of the let's take a look at the some of the economy and a little preview now what what press ahead because some people say when the most interesting things about this evening is going to be who ends up controlling the house and senate mr morrison preview words about that thanks jim i'm here with veteran congress watcher tom mann

brookings institution and ron elving the political editor seek you right give us a sense of stay with you of what the republicans had to do and have to do to hold onto control of the senate while the ruling democrats actually true republicans have nineteen seats that's at stake in this election the democrats of fifteen there are a couple of republican incumbents that are being pressed very hard right now there's six seats that republicans have fifty three the democrats of ways that's right and so the democrats really need three seats to pick up the number needed for al gore to break the tie and give the democrats the majority of their foreign workers can offer them bought they have i would say too vulnerable incumbents in and it looks as if one of those bob smith of the new hampshire is likely to go down larry pressler south

dakota is the other one thing and then have some open seats there are actually six open seats to defend end and there are some questionable ones are going in our senator hatfield a retired is is up for grabs on that on the democratic side we're a vulnerability there in us fifteen seats are the floor or open seats in the south this is where you had for a pretty sturdy pretty popular democratic incumbents who decided to in their careers in ensure jaw and arkansas all in alabama in the difficulty here is that with the secular realignment underway in the south it's very likely that republicans are going to have an advantage in those open seat races and they could sweep the southern open democratic seats there by canceling out any losses they experience up north and

thereby holding off the democrats they were on the verge of saying this kind of regional realignment ran into in terms of the south and an event it appears that after tonight there may not be a state in the south that has two democratic senators whereas most of the states in the south will have two republican senators moynihan for the split we're clearly moving towards an era in which the republican party is as dominant in the south as the democratic party along was the conservative self is finding a new party in which to express itself and we're saying to some degree a realignment in the rest of the country to adjust to that much as the republican party used to do pretty well in the rest of the country the correct democratic strength in the south and this this democratic strength now being force in the northeast and mid atlantic states and also in the midwest and to some degree on the west coast now some of these races might take awhile to resolve tonight and the republicans have done a good job of shoring up some of their vacancies out in the west in oregon race is going to be a close one but in wyoming and colorado and kansas the republican party i think he's shoring up bits of

vulnerabilities there and will look pretty strong but across the midwest and of course as you suggest in the northeastern quadrant and unlike state the democratic party is doing well enough there to make up for some of its losses in the south and keep this a close competition but it looks like the republicans are going to remain clearly the majority party in the senate to what degree are these senate contests national in their scope whether import that is by their teams that are common to say to all the republicans running tom moore or a read a very idiosyncratic that support to understand that they are a combination of national and local forces operating here massachusetts is a good case and why bill clinton swept the presidential race there there's a popular democratic incumbent john kerry but the morel the governor the republican governor is also a very popular and so you've had a struggle it's it's closely contested looks as if john kerry will hold hold his seat there but you have some issues played nationally by kerry than the medicare issue

in particular but at the same time that i was able to draw on a reservoir a popularity because of the way he's cut taxes and then made the massachusetts economy how well and he's been able to avoid the yeah the backlash against social conservatives because he's a social moderate he's pro choice on on abortion he's pro environment and and so you see in this race week we have a national effect from clinton's big victory from the issue of medicare i've been worried about extremism in the republican party and yet this race was close because of local considerations and art when she said it's a regional issues that play differently in different parts of the country no question about any senate races and when they are affected in the senate races are oftentimes of states such as new jersey which is another close race to call them were bought or chili seems to have a lida is there it and he is the democratic candidate for the open seat being vacated by retiring

senator bill bradley poppen riddick singer because he has managed to portray his party as being more the party and bill bradley ken digs interest party the republican party as being that newt gingrich will be back later jim desk gardeners with three rings i think everybody again jim i'm joined by doris kearns goodwin presidential historian michael beschloss presidential historian author and journalist haynes johnson and william kristol editor and publisher of the weekly standard pains what is at stake in this election how important has interviewed some elections like nineteen thirty six a graven in history that was the one that ratify the new deal set the modern era of american governance they live in ascendancy it in sixty four was the crest of the new deal big government error and now the last thirty two years is the republican hero five the last several elections up until nineteen ninety two republican presidents democrats only won twice didn't even get fifty percent

about this election after nineteen ninety four i would argue was gonna be the affirmation of a new republican conservative hero in fact it appears to be not the case it appears as if america's going back where it was in the middle and it is not a rejection of government they don't have maybe but not a government with medicare entitlements social security while the rest of the men always seems to me the countries say we want the backhoe have always been sort of an emotional bond is not a revolution it is not rod pierre <unk> washington focused only thing is it is that we don't quite know what this happens and it gets no but i actually disagree in the sense of goodness reelected with a minority the vote less than fifty percent of both have republicans hold congress will be the first and seventy years republicans will want congress to auction starts first senses before the new deal only it despite everything despite strong clinton strong economy peace and prosperity we presidential candidate all the mistakes the republican congress made if they can

still hold congress in nineteen ninety six i do think it means now it's ninety four was a watershed election and we are a mirror of these potential republican majority status so you do agree and they think it is and there's a lot at stake is a lot at stake including congress and that would've bought a stake the presidential election except it's unclear whether cleveland because the treaty will be able to say he's got a kind of mandate dusty think it's a turning point oh i think in a certain sense it's a marriage between two different watershed thing when you look at a nineteen thirty two nineteen thirty six it was the time for a generation that the country decided that when you had government out there to protect people from the vagaries of the economy and that lasted for a generation that you had a watershed and some ways in nineteen eighty when reagan came in and his voice was successful and sank getting skepticism to the role of women especially big government i think if you sat and i think what you're seeing now is this sort of a mixture of the two on a certain sense the country is saying that certain bedrock parts of the new deal that we will not allow to be and on which is medicare and social security in certain economic protections against the economy

but on the other hand when clinton says as one of his campaign themes the arabic gum is over reagan's voice still there signing a sense that you've seen a combination of these two and we're not quite sure where to go from here which will be stronger but they're both out there for a slicker where the price increases that would be historically i would but you know the other thing is the nineteen thirty six and nineteen sixty four so these other elections we've mentioned those were two of those were years when you have not only an important set of issues but also two parties two presidential candidates who had radically different views on these issues the people what one where another the fascinating thing about nineteen ninety six that you don't have that you have a republican certainly having a view that government should be very much limited especially the congressional republicans but bill clinton having yanked his party at least from nineteen ninety six toward the center assuming at least republican color and so i think in a way what that suggest that the republicans really have won the battle because they succeeded in getting bill clinton to play on their territory as much as the democrats did with dwight eisenhower and there's and then in the nineteen

fifties when he essentially said we're going to preserve and you know you saying that because the battle is not between left and right to people with two very different ideas but rather between ness and that actually said on the show today between the forty five yard line they are lines that that makes that there's less at stake because of that it's less of sort of a basic important life changing election but the thing that's fascinating is that on bill clinton's side he ignored a storm proof the democrats to survive this year had to assume a very different color and for most the democrats the last sixty years the same thing in congress during the next couple of years i think we're going to see whether people or whether it simply tactical i think one of the important things that may have happened in the selection no matter how it comes out is that some of the hate crimes from the past elections seem to have been spiked in the selection affirmative action played a role but nowhere near the passions well people thought it would which meant that raced in play a negative role in the same way that it hasn't passed abortion was out there before the general election story but was a major issue during the elections and that means that it if clinton is the way he has a

foundation to move forward on without having to worry about some of these fiery issues that take up time and energy and ally to move forward and stick around global view that she and as wuhan david knowing what they're calling home and was unresolved quality we have new results in many senate races going on tonight starting in the state of new hampshire where dix what the former un democratic congressman has defeated a sitting senator robert smith in new hampshire in new jersey how robert torricelli has defeated representative exam or the republicans in the state of north carolina jesse helms has been reluctant over former charlotte mayor rt get in the state of oklahoma james inhofe reelected over james borer in the democrat in north carolina strom thurmond reelected over democrat eliot close and in tennessee fred thompson reelected to a full term over democrat houston gordon in texas program as expected defeating victor morales the democrat in west virginia jay rockefeller as expected defeating

republican betty works in west virginia and in georgia in a close race to fill the seat of retiring senator sam nunn die in that george or race so let's go to arizona first arizona where president clinton now has been projected to be the winner in the state of arizona eight electoral votes in arizona and moving on to the state of delaware and back in the senate races where joseph biden as expected as dictated his republican opponent in delaware in the state illinois also be put on a strong race against a democrat dick durban but they're representative durbin the democrat has defeated well so is the projection in the state of illinois for that senate seat in the state of kansas to fill the seat of retiring senator nancy kassebaum but i was there and pat roberts the republican has defeated democrat so a thompson in kentucky mitch mcconnell reelected over of the lieutenant governor steven bashir the democrat and in the state

of massachusetts john kerry and a closely watched race now projected to be the winner over governor william weld the republican in the state of michigan senator carl levin and what was thought to be at one time a close race now senator levin apparel has pulled up that race reelected in the state of mississippi one of the senate leaders that cochran now who vied for the leadership position of the senate reelected over democrat james hunt clothes or the latest results as we have them up to the minute oh i thank you oh thank you call me out of the dark on arizona by the way was that was that was a mistake and that was called for president of letters that are still not cora crawley don't know yet what we wanna know what we want to do now is talk about some of the senate races first of all the max clean race of them actually and a victory in georgia that pentagon right at him and i had an uneven behind and now you've won that masculine

to be courtesy of the veterans' administration vietnam decorated veteran centrist a very popular one landslides and secretary state of us and then i had a lead in this race against that hang on that was republican candidate government gave zell miller democratic incumbents phrase i just the history of yemen was wilson earlier he was a lot of his own money in the race but i think this is his defeat is partly attributed to a very rough primary the head to opponents and may not be turned around in a very hard fashion and that that was a late primary and i can often hurt cynthia tucker one of our regional commentators of the atlanta constitution is standing by in atlanta are you not to dionne yes i haven't i don't know what would you like add or subtract from water mark shields and knuckles ago to set about clinton's victory this is a very very big win for the democrats as everyone

knows the republicans have been making increasing gains throughout the south are they had hoped to pick up a seat it was very important for the democrats to hang onto this seat they're willing to have any hope of retaking the senate and once iraq are at one small thing mark said he said that max cleland is a quadriplegic is a triple amputee are from vietnam he did serve in president carter's cabinet and i think another thing that help max cleveland is that he has already been elected several times statewide he was a very popular secretary of state you may also have been helped by the fact that that is not a barrier harbison office so he didn't have to take very many stance that might have been risky or unpopular that was a very tight race today losing campaign a lot of negative advertising on both sides and quite frankly max cleland may have also been held by the fact that there was a libertarian and race he's not throwing very much support he's trying to only

about three percent but for those people who tended to be conservatives bought we're not quite drawn to dive known or a london of the vote was a libertarian anatomy of help that's clear and that is well you said it was a rough raise one evening on cspan very late at night i watched part of that one of their debates miller and clean it watch raw power was very military unit fact the reporters who ever ask you saw quite differently add did in fact i think he backed out just a little bit after that and i know there was so negative and so harsh in that debate i think his advisors got to him and said it's ok to attack but you can't attack the job's you're not running against them cynthia thank you well thank you very much charlayne hunter gault has so we have a professional pollster awe watching all of this and you know some special

insights into georgia i believe is with charlie charlie haden on special insight areas that ad colorado viet q center for the people and the press and it would you that for us added georgia well i don't have anything from us for you out of georgia but i have the results of our los angeles times exit poll which will be coming back to over the course of the evening and there were learning about what issues the voters had on their minds as they were casting about all across the country was is a los angeles times survey it's a nationwide survey and not too surprisingly the economy was the top issue on voters' minds thirty eight percent cited the economy thirty nine percent were thinking about morality about twenty four percent were thinking about the at the issue of education in fifteen percent health care those are all familiar issues what's different about this election is that the economy isn't an overwhelming issue the way it was four years ago when we questioned voters as they were coming out of the polling oh are you learning anything else from maize or is

it still too early at this point to have anything definitive for many the places where we've had that clinton declared the winner no we're mostly going to be talking about in the national exit poll from the los angeles times the walls of any periodic reports from the associated press as to what the other news services showing in some of these states right now what we have is so is mostly a nationwide results of the presidential election and the summer so it's pretty interesting in terms of the qualities that girl voters were war were thinking about in terms of presidential voting can hear the same word i mention the morality thing is there anything more definitive than that well voters who were concerned about morality ethics so they were they voted overwhelmingly at the margins that's nineteen percent to sixty and for our four hour bob dole won voters who were who were considering economic proposals voted for by for bill clinton at a rate of sixty nine to twenty

and how unusual is that well in terms of what we've been seeing in the pre election polling on morality ethically ethics it's not too unusual but now this economy the fact that voters who were thinking about economic considerations are economic proposals were overwhelmingly voting for clinton is a city isn't as a big as it is a good sign for bill clinton i also think that we also found that the top qualities that the voters said that they were looking for in candidates are voters who are candidates who care about them and candidate with experience and the cares about factory is something that clinton has been leading in the pre election polls in and a twenty percent in la times exit poll who said that voted seventy two percent are for cutting sixteen percent for doll now voters who were concerned about allegations ethical allegations obviously voted at very high rates for our four bob dole out some seventy percent of them voted for bob dole and now

those democrats republicans only are you talking about that what about that what are we getting anything from the independence of know that this is a guy this is a representative sample of all voters are republicans democrats and independents it and you say what this will be back soon yeah one return now to what we were talking about the year the georgia senate races said the georgia senate race and the congressional they don't want to go to back to margaret now for some insights from a folk song on what happened in georgia and in the other senate races this fall thanks jim arm once again i'm here with tom man of congress watcher from brookings institution and with ron elving the political editor of sikh you let's go back to this incredible georgia race of mine the republican mayor miller was making real progress was any with them with a pretty tried and true attack on max cleland of the crime issue absolutely and that number has put a great deal of his own

personal fortune which he made by establishing his own business and temporary staffing into the last couple of weeks in his campaign to make a very strong case that clinton was a kind of closet liberal that he was one more guy who's going to go up to washington and the soft on crime because among other things it once and wrote written a letter that is so supportive of parole for a convicted murderer now on the basis of that case he went after clinton ad course the candidate the democrats and i've never had such a letter and went back and forth on that in the debate over the last weekend and that looks like it pretty much come down to being the one issue on which this race was going to turn even with all the money that have been spent in old london spilled over this many many months amara run minor point to keep in mind georgia has a runoff procedure when they last elected a senator rights fowler was a head at the time but he didn't get fifty percent there was a run off after the general election and the republican paul coverdale won they've revised the law it's now thirty five percent needed to

avoid a runoff and so you have to keep an eye on the total returns to see a clue and meets that test and avoids a runoff election as a libertarian as if you're a candidate who could from auckland and keep them from getting this a very important race that it eliminates the possibility of a republican sweep in the open democratic racism keeps the democratic hopes of regain majority a live long shot perhaps but it's a it's an important race to them that they would hate to sing disappear in the wee hours of the night with you know with cool and getting forty four point nine percent of the vote the runoff illinois now where congressman dick durbin the democrat did defeat in an open race now salisbury now talk to slow but not that race ron they look close so what were each of the candidates really how they presenting themselves would determinism a term

incumbent congressman from downstate and counting on getting a good democratic votes chicago and being popular enough to carry just a lot of people wrote this all predictor been very early because the republicans refused to nominate they're relatively modern tenant governor instead moderated they're much more actor nominated they're much more activist conservative house our little state legislature us army ran a magnificent campaign in the closing weeks he ran ads that show is joan cronan busing his hair and in essence asked implicitly dewine looks scary to do i really look like such a terrible and i well then in the debate over the last week internet and radio appearance out sallie mae the rather extraordinary accusation that jim brady president reagan's former press secretary and one spin machine gun dealer and this shocked the entire state of your mind literally on its socks and when the whole smoke had cleared it turned out that he'd been handed a piece paper about this with a staff member and they had the wrong jim brady and of course the former press secretary ronald reagan wrote a letter saying i've never been a machine gun dealers to sell me and ps whenever you're paying a press secretary it's not

enough wealth that the fight for press secretary and so in the end the chance i think that also had a were coming his deficit there was probably squelched in the last few days a democrat is dick durbin the second level to centrist who's the center left i think many republicans would say is a liberal member of the democratic caucus but seem like all democrats running in difficult races statewide and in house races are tilting toward the center this time around there was no effort on his part to promise a grand new democratic liberal agenda it he really aligned himself with bill clinton with his moderation with his effort to identify with popular public programs but to speak as a fiscal conservative and a social moderate one other senate race and let's look at new jersey i think the most

expensive one in the country some would say the nastiest says that at their rap on this race well we can start bringing and accusations of being in some sense or another linked through several linkages to organized crime it puts a little bit different definition on family values this is not the kind of thing that most people would be proud to have been the subject of a senate campaign and of course both of these camps both these candidates could be described as relatively center left center right in their voting patterns but of course both of them portray the other as being the wildest kind of extremist left and right so it was not a pretty picture the last few days to try to clean up a little bit in both look a little bit more senatorial but in the end for joy a lot more money and he had raised more money than any other candidate for the senate and come to a challenger earlier this year and in the middle of some commentators said that the least two to actually answer were both former congressman that they were so i know in the state that they each tried to define the other in a negative way i think that's right there are no state television

stations in new jersey say you have to buy time and philadelphia new york most new jersey politicians are simply not known statewide so they felt they had to the public's attention in a year in which voters were paying much attention negative ads work for that purpose that's what they use that started the kind of negative arms race and it went downhill from for mayor you know die the center is the kind of republican who want to do well in a state like new jersey it tells you something about a the cost of being associated with with the republican revolution at the beginning of the time as well as the fact that this is a pretty good democratic your family that they're for now gm at the correct that thomas mann it said dick zimmer don zimmer was the coach of the year again is the use of may used to be i used to play for plant manager

boston red sox continuing the subject at in new jersey an expert on that is what you're actually yes and that's again kathleen hall jamieson that was an extraordinary race over the air in its negative aspects right kathy yes and they weren't one of the things that was very interesting about that race was that at underlying move that was being made across the united states was evident even in the clutter of that debt very strange rise because of just solid republican trying to say about the democrats liberal liberal liberal embarrassingly liberal which is sub democrats and back to the republican was cut medicare you're alive all those bad things that were tied to the republican revolution it on tape well actually bob like you voted for the biggest tax increase every thanks very liberal i certainly do a variety of positions are liberal absolutely bots like on welfare you voted against worker that is extremely liberal i certainly do a variety of positions are liberal we agree torricelli

foolishly liberal williams just last year because they were voted to cut medicare twenty five times a similar vote to cut medicare benefits to raise medicare premiums five thousand dollars politico's of doctors to deny coverage for mammograms deny coverage for colon cancer screenings deny coverage for diabetes but this is even against restoring safety standards and nursing homes similar to extremes for new jersey well that's not just campaign rhetoric be the reason that thats what does that is because they really are symptomatic of a broader strategy and notice two things about those at the central claim that's being made against the democrat is largest tax increase in history that's when the dollar's gonna be making about clinton in reverse where the democrats and about the republican cut medicare cut things that you value that's the claim that the clintons can make about dahl this year was characterized by a

high level i'll concurrence between what happens at the state level in those races and the federal level but what happened in this race that made very unusual was that was in the campaign aired two ads that looked as if they were breaking news as they tried to light were selling to various scandals in the state is very much like a news conference is so much like a news conference at a sense of got to look as if the news commentator was reading a breaking news story with breaking news running across the strain the first ad that went up with was pretty to run only by the media across the state at bp it went off the air and the second that came out doing exactly the same thing that is an interesting test of whether or not the electorate would react to negative campaigning that seem to use an illegitimate strategy will be very disabling back to look at the polls the state to see whether there was a protest against zimmer in part because of overstepping the line with everything else in the what about on the other side with for selling because you heard in the other discussion that you know maybe because of the unique its

local circumstances the advertising that really extreme dream when they actually one of those that was left a controversial about that race and out those claims of damage or heard about cutting mammograms for for women with that this is one of the decisions that played out across the democratic ads as well as at the national level because here what you had was not cut it was actually guaranteed but a failure to vote for something that was proposed that would then increase what you think these reflective national strategies why are people referring to these and in practice the most abominable ebay ads that ran in any of the campaigns in part because when you got down into the specifics there were more distortion sporadic and it was a lot of ugly back and forth about who was involved with the scandal who was bob dylan doing what and as a result there was a sense watching this race and i watched from bolivia because the market is one of the ways that you get advertising to new jersey didn't get a sense watching this

campaign that either of these individuals have a clear vision of where they would take the country whether it was up to the level of senator bill bradley was i thinking yes now some stations will be taking will be breaking away now to record returns on their own character we have an update on the results now from kwame home kwame we have several more states are checking in in the presidential projection category first of all in the state of indiana bob dole is projected the winner his third state thus far tonight a winner in indiana with twelve electoral votes in the state of arkansas the home state for president clinton he wins it as bob dole won his home state of kansas in the state of alabama bob dole picks up has forced a state of alabama nine electoral votes and in the state of kentucky bill clinton again the winner if we can show you the electoral map up to this point you'll see clinton is in blue dahl as unread

clinton with many of the mid atlantic states and then the mid western states read if we could see the little in numbers up to this point in terms of electoral votes according to the projections bill clinton two hundred and twelve electoral votes two hundred seventy needed to win based on projections thus far i'll go with thirty five electoral votes the raw numbers show clinton with forty seven percent of the vote though bob dole with forty five percent ross perot with eight percent of the votes thus far those are the latest results as we have them up to the minute yes and now mark shields and you're here before we are great for the hour all it's so it's drifting in certain ways of the picture is the most surprising thing to me so far is that the south carolina which is one of the most republican states in the country maybe the top five republican states are still in doubt i had the stage should be firmly in bubbles camp strom thurman's argument that's right has it been

declared in the other is kentucky know brooklyn carry kentucky in nineteen ninety two but there was a calculation made by the clinton campaign that they might have to move off lose kentucky this year in order to make the argument against smoking and that might have worked for them in suburban areas across the country but it might cost them in kentucky it does not seem to have done that and the door campaign had targeted content become a tobacco kurtz the republicans now sell the republican candidate for the senate in may illinois was that if a post ability by dick durbin his democratic opponent and taking tobacco money high end and they're opposing an assault weapon than i had calls white kentucky i tobacco did not hurt the democrats hated her infected her the republicans in illinois right we're ok sure right now we will return in a few moments with election i ninety six year on public television

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