The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer

JIM LEHRER: Good evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. On the NewsHour tonight, reports from both the Bush and McCain campaigns; a look at the prospects in tomorrow's primaries in Michigan and Arizona; analysis by mark shields and Paul gigot; and some perspective on the reformers' victory in Iran. It all follows our summary of the news this Monday.

NEWS SUMMARY

JIM LEHRER: The Republican presidential candidates were hard at it again today. There are two more primaries tomorrow. Polls in Michigan have Senator McCain and Governor Bush virtually tied. McCain is ahead in Arizona, the other, which is his home state. McCain today accused Bush of character assassination through negative advertising. Bush said he was taking nothing for granted after taking Saturday's South Carolina primary. We'll have more on the Republican race right after this news summary. On the Democratic side today, Vice President Gore and former Senator Bradley campaigned in New York. They'll debate race and urban issues in Harlem tonight. And we'll have excerpts here tomorrow. Overseas today, reformers appeared to have won a parliamentary majority in Friday's elections in Iran. Their conservative Muslim rivals had predicted they'd retain control. We'll have more on this story later in the program tonight. NATO troops in Kosovo today broke up violent demonstrations in Mitrovica. They kept Albanians from rushing a Serb enclave. We have a report from Mark Austin of Independent Television News.

MARK AUSTIN: Tens of thousands of Albanians marched on Mitrovica in the biggest demonstration since NATO peacekeepers entered Kosovo in June last year. It all began peacefully, but tensions increased as the protesters tried to break through to the center of the city to a bridge separating the Serb minority in the North from the Albanian community in the South. The divided city has been a flash point for Kosovo's continuing ethnic hatred, and today NATO forces were determined to prevent the protesters storming across the bridge. The clashes continued for more than two hours, and several rounds of teargas were fired. The Albanians blamed NATO forces for failing to protect the few Albanians still living in the Serb sector of the city and fear that peacekeepers are effectively allowing the partition of Mitrovica. As Albanians and Serbs continue to confront each other here, NATO says it's monitoring a buildup of Yugoslav forces in southern Serbia, but this protest was eventually quelled, and by early evening, most of the demonstrators had dispersed.

JIM LEHRER: Also in Mitrovica, NATO forces continued house-to-house searches begun yesterday for hidden weapons and explosives. Two American soldiers were injured over the weekend when a Serb mob attacked them. German troops were also assaulted. In Africa today, much of Mozambique was under water after the worst flooding there in 30 years; 67 people died. Aid organizations said about 200,000 others were displaced, many in need of food. Making the situation worse, a cyclone was bearing down on the country, and was due to strike tomorrow. The leader of Northern Ireland's largest Protestant Party was in Washington today. David Trimble met with National Security Adviser Berger at the White House on the disarmament matter. The Catholic Irish Republican Army has refused to lay down its weapons. Trimble said he remains optimistic about the talks, but said the IRA had to make the next move.

DAVID TRIMBLE: We talked about what might be done over the course of the next few weeks, and I think we are hoping that we can bounce back from this situation as quickly as possible. But it can't be done without a clear action and response from Republicans.

JIM LEHRER: U.S. officials said representatives from the IRA's political wing, as well as Britain's Northern Ireland secretary, are to come to Washington later this week. And that's it for the News Summary tonight. Now it's on to the Bush and McCain campaigns, Michigan and Arizona, Shields and Gigot, and the elections in Iran.

FOCUS - ON THE ROAD AGAIN

JIM LEHRER: The Republican presidential campaign. The candidates were in Michigan today. We look at the two leading contenders. First, Governor Bush-- Kwame Holman reports.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: Nice to see you. Thanks for coming.

KWAME HOLMAN: Texas Governor George W. Bush began a full day of rallying and recruiting in Michigan at a Detroit axle factory this morning.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: Good too meet you, buddy. Thank you, sir.

KWAME HOLMAN: Bush says he's shaming to build on his 11 percentage point victory over Maine rival John McCain in South Carolina when Michigan Republicans go to the polls tomorrow.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I think if you look at what happened in South Carolina, there was a huge turnout. A significant number of people were energized by my message, that is conservative and compassionate. A huge turnout, especially among young people who are trying to follow somebody who is optimistic and hopeful -- I did a fantastic job of igniting our base and expanding our horizons. That's what I'm going to do here in Michigan. I take nothing for granted. I'm thrilled with the turnout that happened in South Carolina. But you're going to see me working hard in Michigan. To continue reaching out.

SPOKESMAN: The great governor of the great state of Texas, the Honorable George W. Bush.

KWAME HOLMAN: Bush's second Michigan stop was a traditional one for presidential candidates. At the Detroit Economic Club, Bush outlined his view of the role of government to a large crowd of business leaders.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: The role of government is not to create wealth, but to create an environment in which entrepreneurship can flourish, in which small businesses can become large businesses, in which people who dream about owning something in America can realize that dream if they're willing to work hard and take risks. No, the role of government is not to guarantee anything except equal access to the great American dream. I'm concerned about the tax burden. Now I know the rhetoric in Washington is it's risky to give people their own money back. But let me make it plain to you, I understand the government surplus. It's not the government's money. It is the people's money. And when I become your President, I intend to give enough of it back so the people of this good state can have more money in their pocket.

KWAME HOLMAN: When Bush took questions from reporters, he was flanked by an important figure in his effort to win the Michigan primary tomorrow-- popular three-term Republican Governor John Engler. Bush was asked about a statewide poll showing Arizona Senator John McCain slightly ahead, though others show a statistical dead heat.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: Polls can be wrong. There is a level of intensity amongst our voters that is palpable. I can see it, can hear it. People come up to me and say, "I cannot wait to vote for you and work hard for you, and I can't wait to take my friends to the polls." We have a volunteer army on the ground.

KWAME HOLMAN: From downtown Detroit, the Texas Governor traveled 90 minutes to a rally at Michigan State University in East Lansing.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: I feel victory here in Michigan. I want to thank you all for coming. It's voting time in Michigan. It's time for people of this state to say that tomorrow is the beginning of the end of the Clinton/Gore era in Washington, DC. (Applause) I want to talk about one other issue right quick, now that I have got your attention. It is incredibly important in order to make sure the American dream touches every heart. It is incredibly important that every child in America be educated, and no child be left behind. It is incredibly important. (Cheers and applause) Perhaps my most proud accomplishment is to be able to stand in this great state of Michigan and say our test scores are up, particularly amongst our African American students and our Hispanic students -- because you see, we have begun to abandon the practice of saying, "how old are you?" You see, a system that says, "how old are you?" It's a system that says, if you're 12 you're supposed to be here and 14 here. Instead, we're starting to ask what do you know? And if you don't know what you're supposed to know, we will make sure you do early before it's too late. And our state is better off. I want to take that reforming agenda to Washington, D.C.. And you all need to be asking the question, who has the vision for economic growth? Whose vision is the most optimistic for me who's been looking for work? The current tax code is unfair, the death tax is unfair, and I intend to get rid of it; the marriage tax is unfair, the Social Security earnings tax is unfair, and I am going to get rid of it. (Cheers)

KWAME HOLMAN: The candidate's enthusiasm in Michigan today was bolstered by Saturday's victory in South Carolina.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: Frankly I want to say thanks to my friends all across America, all across America, who stayed steady with this campaign when times were tough. And so tonight we come roaring out of South Carolina with a new energy in this campaign.

KWAME HOLMAN: In talk show appearances yesterday, Bush said he was a better candidate than the one who lost badly to John McCain in New Hampshire three weeks ago.

HOST: You've said in other interviews that you were sort of smiling through the early primaries. Did you go home to Austin in between and decide to do something different, decide to be more aggressive or not smile so much -- do something to be a different George Bush?

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: Not a different person. You can't change my heart, and you can't change your vision. But I could change my way to communicate with people. You're right. I learned, and that's something this process is. It's a learning process. After all, I'm learning as I head to become your President. I think that's what you want for every candidate, somebody who has had... You know, took a blow and able to recover and learn from it. And I did. And this is a good, strong campaign here in South Carolina, and I'm most grateful.

KWAME HOLMAN: Arriving in Michigan Saturday night, Bush began a two-day political sprint through the state.

GOV. GEORGE W. BUSH: Well, thank you very much for this warm Michigan greeting on a kind of a cold night. But my night was kind of hot a little earlier. I want to thank you all for coming. I'm ready for this contest, and I hope you are as well. (Applause)

KWAME HOLMAN: Casting himself as what he calls the real reformer in the presidential race, Bush now rarely mentions McCain, aiming instead at the Democrats. Once Michigan voters head to the polls tomorrow, Governor Bush plans to push on to two of next month's so-called Super Tuesday states, Missouri and California.

JIM LEHRER: Now to Senator McCain. Ray Suarez was with that campaign on Sunday.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: How you doing?

RAY SUAREZ: The McCain campaign says there's been no change in message, no change in tactics, but in Michigan the Senator has clearly sharpened his assaults on George W. Bush, taking every opportunity to deliver tough critiques of his main opponent's record as governor and proposals as a candidate. On the stump...

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: Governor Bush used to call himself a compassionate conservative. Now he calls himself a reformer with results. And soon he'll call himself a Texan with tenancy. But the point is, my friends, campaign finance reform is at the heart of reform. In five years as the governor of the state of Texas, Governor Bush never made one proposal in a state where unlimited contributions are the order of the day. If Governor Bush is a reformer, I'm an astronaut.

RAY SUAREZ: He kept up the drumbeat on live broadcasts.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: Look, I've said I am a proud conservative Republican with a 17-year voting record. In fact, far more conservative than Governor Bush.

HOST: In what way?

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: Well, spending: Spending in Texas has almost doubled while spending under Clinton has increased by 20%.

RAY SUAREZ: And he repeats that theme-- he calls it "contrasting," something distinct from negative campaigning-- while huddled with reporters in the back of the campaign bus.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: The Michigan voter has only been exposed to it for two weeks, whereas they were exposed to it in South Carolina by... It wasn't just the television. It was the radio. It was the telephone. It was, you know, it was pervasive there. I just have to rely on the good judgment of the voters not to buy into these negative attack ads. Sooner or later, people will figure out that if all you run are negative ads, you don't have much of a vision for the future, or you're not ready to articulate it.

RAY SUAREZ: The candidate and the campaign say George W. Bush's saturation ad campaigns, direct mailings, and phone banks overwhelmed them in South Carolina. They say Michigan is more promising because of the short timeline, the need to run a lightning campaign. And heavy access for journalists compensates for smaller purchases of airtime, and gives the candidate the time to explain how a man so uniformly opposed by his own party on Capitol Hill would cut pork from the federal budget.

SPOKESMAN: I'm wondering how things will change once you become president as opposed to when you were a member of the Senate?

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: The way you do it is you campaign with that specific mission in mind, and i'm embarrassed that since the Republicans have taken over the Congress that pork and earmark spending has increased, which we promised we wouldn't do in 1994. Republicans broke a promise. They said we would cut out this spending, so i'm going to reiterate that promise and i'm going to be very specific and i'm going to veto bills that have the pork barrel spending in them. If they override my bill, then I'm going to make every one of them famous, because this is a disgraceful misuse of the taxpayers' dollars, and everybody knows it. And it contributes so much to the cynicism and alienation of the average citizen.

SPOKESMAN: Would you please welcome the straight talk express.

RAY SUAREZ: The campaign is also able to deliver some wow moments.

SPOKESMAN: And the next President of the United States of America, John McCain!

RAY SUAREZ: Rolling right up to the stage in an airport hangar aboard the campaign bus he calls the "straight talk express," delighting a crowd in grand rapids, in conservative and heavily agricultural western Michigan.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: My friends, we're having a great ride. I'm telling you, we're just like Luke Skywalker. We're trying to get out the death star. We got a great victory, we took a hit, got one right in the stomach, and I tell you we're pressing on.

RAY SUAREZ: Here the candidates date stressed the same theme that served him well for months, mentioning his long captivity in Hanoi, his hatred of pork barrel spending, campaign finance reform. Here in Grand Rapids, he added something for strongly anti-abortion voters.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: The smartest thing politically that Gary Bauer could've done is sit out this campaign, sit it out and say "okay, we'll see who wins." But Gary Bauer, because of his love and dedication for this country, was kind enough to honor me with his friendship and support and I will always be grateful for that. And I thank you, Gary.

RAY SUAREZ: At a rally on the campus of Michigan State University, the Senator talked about the low turnout among young voters.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: Sometimes when there's such corruption in Washington, young people become cynical and alienated. That shames me. That shams me because I believe that public service is the most honorable of all professions. I believed it when I was 17 when I entered the United States Naval Academy. I believe it today. And I'm telling you right now, I will fix this system, because I have that obligation to you.

RAY SUAREZ: And in Eastern Michigan, before an audience heavy with Vietnam-era veterans:

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: We have 12,000 enlisted men and women in the military, proud, brave young men and women that are on food stamps. That's a disgrace. There will be no food stamp army when I am President of the United States. I promise you that. (Applause)

RAY SUAREZ: One thing this campaign does not feature in abundance is local Republican elected officials to back the message. Through Michigan, only state Senator Joe Schwartz stood up for McCain. From his 54 Republican colleagues in the U.S. Senate, finance reform supporter Fred Thompson of Tennessee made the trip to the Midwest.

SEN. FRED THOMPSON: It's just a bad idea to be giving unlimited amounts of money to politicians and have business before those politicians. It's just not right. We have a scandal in Germany now, we have scandal in Israel. We don't need another scandal in this country. It takes money, but the difference between John and the others is that John realized it takes money, but he thinks there should be a limit to it and not have it totally unlimited.

RAY SUAREZ: Afraid it may be all over by the time the Illinois primaries come in late march, state representative Jim Durkin packed cars with McCain volunteers from suburban Chicago to precinct walk in Michigan.

JIM DURKIN: Well, those people were surprised. No one has knocked on their door in years, and we had a busload of 60 folks from the Chicago area come down from the state of Illinois, travel through Michigan to blitz and knock on doors, and we had a very warm reception, and that was an area that was described as a very strong Bush area. And unless these people were lying to me, I would say that five to one they said they liked John McCain and they plan on supporting him on Tuesday.

RAY SUAREZ: In Michigan, the McCain campaign is stressing the appeal to independents and Democratic crossovers, and hoping it means more in one of the original homes of the Reagan democrats than it did in South Carolina.

SEN. JOHN McCAIN: Reagan Democrats are people who are attracted to a conservative, principled, visionary philosophy that they feel is best for the future of the country and America. I believe I will attract people because I will bring their government back, because -- which was stolen from them by the special interests, the lobbyists, the big money in Washington. That's why our appeal has been so across party lines as well as Republicans.

RAY SUAREZ: At stop after stop, John McCain makes the same promise: To beat Al Gore like a drum on the issue of campaign finance. The next 24 hours may have a lot to say about whether he comes any closer to getting the chance.

FOCUS - LOOKING AHEAD

JIM LEHRER: And now, more on tomorrow's primaries and to Gwen Ifill.

GWEN IFILL: The next challenges: Arizona and Michigan. One race features a favorite son; the other, yet another toss-up open primary. Two political reporters on the scene help us put both contests in perspective: Jeff Barker of the "Arizona Republic," and Charlie Cain, the Lansing bureau chief for the "Detroit News." Charlie Cain, we just heard Ray Suarez say this is a lightening campaign, essentially a fast 48 hours for both candidates to prove their point. To whom? Who are the Michigan voters they're trying to appeal to?

CHARLIE CAIN: Well, if you ask Senator McCain, he would say that he's trying desperately to appeal to independent voters and Democrats who are free to take part in the Michigan primary. Polling that the Detroit News did last week showed it was a statistical dead heat, although Texas Governor Bush wins handily among Republicans, while McCain has a strong advantage over independents and Republicans. If the turnout includes as many as 40% independents, it could be a very good sign for McCain. If less than a quarter of them show up, it will be very good for McCain who enjoys the full support of the establishment in Michigan, beginning with Governor John Engler.

GWEN IFILL: But John McCain is clearly accounting on the unpredictability of Michigan voters. Pat Buchanan got 37% in 196 and Ross Perot also did fairly well. What about those voters? Are they up for grabs?

CHARLIE CAIN: Well, there again you're looking largely at the Reagan Democrats that Macomb County made famous. A lot of people think that McCain, that's the tenth congressional district where David Bonior is the U.S. Representative, they think they have a strong chance here. The Republican Secretary of State, Candace Miller, who supports George Bush, took part in some volunteer phone banking over the weekend. They had more than 500 volunteers make more than 11,000 phone calls on behalf of George Bush. That unpredictability you talk about in Michigan also in 1988, Jesse Jackson won the Democratic caucus. 1972, George Wallace won the Democratic Primary. So Michigan voters have not always played it according to hoyle.

GWEN IFILL: So who benefits from that?

CHARLIE CAIN: From unpredictability? I would think anything that takes you outside the mainstream GOP has got to play in John McCain's factor.

GWEN IFILL: We hear a lot about the organizational strength in Michigan for Governor Bush, not for McCain as I think we may have misstated - discombobulated at the top - but what exactly is that? We're talking about Governor John Engler and his support and -- I guess his for lack of a better term machine. Is there such a thing?

CHARLIE CAIN: It's not really a machine; it's more of an organization, but they have been able to make thousands and thousands of get-out-the-vote phone calls. They've been doing literature drop. Right to Life of Michigan -- which is endorsing Governor Bush --even though he and Senator McCain have similar records on the issue has made a major drop in Western Michigan. That's more of a conservative belt in this state. So I think that the... in terms of the organizational strength that's sort of a David and Goliath match up with Governor Bush clearly enjoying the power.

GWEN IFILL: Governor Engler has been working tirelessly for Governor Bush. But he says that his endorsement comes with half of his friends and all of his enemies. Is there... there seems to be at least some effort to undercut John Engler's endorsement in Michigan. Can you explain it to us?

CHARLIE CAIN: We had a poll in today's paper they're showed... We asked people, are you more or less likely to vote for Governor Bush knowing that John Engler is pushing his candidacy? We found that 17% said they were less likely to vote for Governor Bush, and 24% said more likely. 57% said it didn't make a difference. What we're also seeing is that in some areas, some we Detroit lawmakers, some black ministers have been encouraging from the pulpit that voters go out and vote for McCain, not necessarily because they like him, but because they want to send a message to Governor Engler, who has been involved in a number of efforts in the past year, including one that removed the Detroit's elected school board. The city somewhat feels they're being picked on by Lansing and specifically by Governor Engler. They would like to see him sort of be toppled a little bit here.

GWEN IFILL:That effort to energize Democrats to vote for Republicans backfired in South Carolina. Can it work in Michigan? It's a very different set of factors.

CHARLIE CAIN: It's tough to figure out how it's going to play. The Democratic Party leaders have said they want no part of this and they're not encouraging their members. They said, hey, keep your powder dry until the March 11 caucuses when we'll try to do what we can to send al gore off. So the party is not endorsing it. Whether this works, I don't know. The primary is kind of confusing. I'm not certain that voters are sophisticated enough to follow that strategy.

GWEN IFILL: Jeff Barker of the "Arizona Republic," Arizona is home to both conservatives like Barry Goldwater and a liberal icon like Morris Udall. Who are the Arizona voters here?

JEFF BARKER: Well, Arizona is really quite a mix. I think that the social conservatives aren't quite as well organized here. I think the character of Arizona really is... Can be symbolized by the cowboy hat. You know, candidates in Arizona always wear cowboy hats. Pat Buchanan wore a black hat when he ran here in '96. And I think it sort of symbolizes the old West, the independents. And I guess you can see that's why John McCain is a pretty good fit in Arizona, because his whole presidential campaign is set up around being a maverick. That's his image. He's always been a guy who would symbolically wear a cowboy hat in Arizona.

GWEN IFILL: This is john McCain's home state, yet George W. Bush has spent $2 million in television advertising and mass mailings and phone banking. Why is it that John McCain can't simply relax and coast to victory in his home state?

JEFF BARKER: I think he may. I think he may be able to. I mean, the short answer is there is some dissension in the party, an awkward split really. The governor of Arizona, Governor Hull, endorsed George W. Bush. And in so doing, she raised questions not so much about Senator McCain's positions, but about his temperament, his style. She kind of suggested that he was a bit of a political bully. And she told a story about holding the phone away from her ear one time when McCain was speaking to her on the phone. And so she raised that issue that was kind of a sensitive issue. They really have become sort of enemies. And the party is somewhat split. But I think McCain now is pretty well ahead in the polls. And I have to believe if you were really threatened by Bush and by Hull, he'd be in Arizona right now. As it, is he's not going to arrive into Tucson until this evening.

GWEN IFILL: It is possible to figure out what the worst case scenario is for McCain by saying how many points he has to win by, 20 points, 30 points?

JEFF BARKER: I don't know. You know, the polls show he's up by at least a couple dozen. I any if... For the Bush people, I think... They've already tried to say that, you know, favorite sons like McCain should win by 30 or 50 points so obviously that's their spin. If they can get anywhere near single digits, I think they would be happy. But I have to believe that in the beginning they felt they might get some traction out of what Governor Hull was saying, but it's the same thing with McCain. He's not here. Bush hasn't been here so much either. So I think that maybe Bush is kind of conceding spending his time in Michigan and then heading to California.

GWEN IFILL: You mentioned pat Buchanan and the black hat four years ago. Steve Forbes won that by getting absentee voters to cast ballots. This time the ballots are through the roof, more than double than last time. Do you have any idea what that means?

JEFF BARKER: I think the split between hull and McCain, the two most popular Republican office holders in the state has generated a lot of interest. I don't know this means somehow McCain is threatened, though, because I think that Steve Forbes won the race in '96 partly because he got sort of the moneyed, corporate Republicans. I think a lot of those people are going to go to John McCain. Some of those will go to Bush, but John McCain has a good relationship and close relationship with companies like U.S. West, America West, Phelps Dodge. These are... This is where Steve Forbes drew a lot of his support in 1996. I think those people now are probably going to go for McCain.

GWEN IFILL: Well, Jeff Barker of the Arizona Republic and Charlie Cain of the "Detroit News," you both have busy days ahead of you tomorrow; thank you very much for joining us tonight.

JIM LEHRER: Still to come on the NewsHour tonight, Shields and Gigot, and the elections in Iran.

FOCUS - LOOKING AHEAD

JIM LEHRER: Shields and Gigot, syndicated columnist Mark Shields and "Wall Street Journal" columnist Paul Gigot. Mark, is it now do or die for john McCain in Michigan?

MARK SHIELDS: It sure, is Jim. No question about it.

JIM LEHRER: Literally? He doesn't win in Michigan...

MARK SHIELDS: He doesn't win in Michigan, he might behave it on, carry on, but the zip is gone. The energy's gone. He's drawing to an inside straight now in poker. I mean, that's what he has to get... He has to get the missing seven in that four, five, six, eight, nine...

JIM LEHRER: I'm not going to ask you any follow-ups.

MARK SHIELDS: Really. That's what Michigan has become for him.

JIM LEHRER: You agree?

PAUL GIGOT: I do, in particular because after Michigan we ear running into the primaries where the vote is closed to non-Republicans. 50% of the delegates will be chosen after Michigan in those kinds of states. That's where George Bush right now has advantages of some 20 points, 30 points, 40 points in some of these states.

JIM LEHRER: This is the last big one, important one where independents and Democrats can also vote.

PAUL GIGOT: Next week in Virginia there's another one. And there are some others, but the majority of the delegates will not be chosen like Michigan where you can call on independents and Democrats.

JIM LEHRER: Now Mark, McCain kind of ratcheted up the rhetoric today. He accused Bush of taking character assassination, of trying to take the low road to the presidency. What's that all about?

MARK SHIELDS: There's no argument about what happened in South Carolina. George Bush won a big, must 46 win victory for him and he carried Republicans overwhelmingly and he carried social conservatives overwhelmingly. John McCain can comfort himself... Console himself by saying he got more votes than Ronald Reagan got in South Carolina, George Bush Sr.. He got more votes than any Republican ever had. But George W. Bush got more. But it isn't a question of what happened, it's how it happened, Jim. And there were Bush backers, make no mistake about it, that were doing things that are not Marquis of Queensbury rules. There was a flier distributed that accused John McCain, because he had met with the log cabin Republicans, a gay rights group, George Bush refused to -- under the advise of Ralph Reed -- meet with them, that he was the fag candidate. At the same time, he was accused of being... having sired children out of wedlock, of... ugly things distributed and circulated because his daughter is not white. So, I mean, this stuff really hurt and angered the McCain folks and the Senator himself. And he expressed it. Whether it's defiant or whether it's angry and ill tempered, vote centers Michigan will have to decide. But it's genuine. It's not contrived.

JIM LEHRER: Angry, ill-tempered? What words would you use, Paul?

PAUL GIGOT: Well, I mean, he feels aggrieved. I don't think there's any question there were some low blows struck by people trying to help George Bush, but the truth is the stuff that George Bush campaigned, put on television and put on radio, some of it was tough. Some of it was tough contrast ads, as John McCain hit George W. Bush with. But it was completely above board. Most of the media in that state, and there was a lot of it from Bush, there's no question , they spent a lot of money there, but it was fair stuff, contrast on philosophy. It wasn't character assassination. It was about the issues. And they were trying to define him, and they did it successfully. John McCain isn't conservative enough. That's how he won it.

JIM LEHRER: All right, now, forget about South Carolina for a moment. How does what happened in South Carolina translate into what's going to happen tomorrow in Michigan, is likely to translate? I won't make you predict it.

PAUL GIGOT: The Bush campaign hopes they get bounce and momentum. In the early polling, there doesn't seem to be a lot of bounce and momentum.

JIM LEHRER: Just on the fact Bush won?

PAUL GIGOT: That's right.

JIM LEHRER: Just like McCain did when he won New Hampshire. He's supposed to have gotten and he did get a big bounce in the beginning with South Carolina.

PAUL GIGOT: Maybe with only two days difference, you I don't have enough time for the size of the victory to sink. In you had a holiday today for example and a lot of people are doing other things, not paying attention. So we don't know what kind of bounce there will be. That's what the Bush campaign hopes will happen. The other thing they hope will happen is that he can win among Republicans in Michigan the same way or... if not as large, at least large enough in Michigan to dampen any McCain appeal across the aisle.

JIM LEHRER: How do you read what McCain has to do in Michigan in order to pull this thing out? If everything rests on this for him now, what's he going to do? He has 24 hours to do it.

MARK SHIELDS: Yes, he does. Paul and I have a different take on South Carolina on the issues, but I mean, the exit polls, the voters side with McCain on the issue of Social Security, shoring it up versus tax cuts. They sided with him on Medicare and Social Security being the most important issue of all the issues. The most important element was moral values and family values to the voters. But it's an issue that doesn't translate into a legislative program. There's no legislative program that says George Bush has a family values agent damp so what John McCain has to do, he's got a cohort of this electorate, religious conservatives, who are 35% of the vote in South Carolina, who are one-sixth of the vote in New Hampshire. He lost them overwhelmingly.

JIM LEHRER: What is it in Michigan?

MARK SHIELDS: The estimates vary. It's about 25% is the best estimate we have from people I've talked to. He's losing them 75 to 25: Okay. Now, if you're losing these folks 75 to 25, that means immediately you've got an 11-point deficit in the overall electorate. You're losing 18-7 -- which means you've got to make that up somewhere. It's tough to make up against a fellow like George W. Bush who is popular with Republicans, who has favorable image, who's got strong party support. He has to say, "look, this is... Paul's right, two day, what do you say. This is it, Michigan. You've got the decision. You can make history. You can close this race down now. It's going to be George Bush against Al Gore or keep this thing going.

PAUL GIGOT: Jim, he has to make some of his message, draw themes from his record and things from his message that appeal to conservatives, that appeal to Republicans. He's got to find a way. Bill McInturff, his pollster, said, we can't continue to get beat by 20 and 30 points among Republicans in a Republican primary, and there are things in his record, in his 18-year record that they could stress and bring out. He tried to do that yesterday, saying, "i'm tougher on spending. George W. Bush is a spendthrift in Texas." But towards the end in South Carolina, this campaign was only about John McCain. He had narrowed his focus so little, so narrowly...

JIM LEHRER: As you all said, Bush did the same thing, talking about job McCain and only John McCain.

PAUL GIGOT: Bush was also talking about john McCain, hitting him on campaign finance reform, hit him on tacks, hit him on matters of philosophy, whereas McCain was saying, this is about me, this is about our crusade. That's where we disagree. But his concession speech, striking to me on Saturday, because it was all about personal honor. He didn't connect it to any bigger thing or bigger issues that said, let's draw ourselves together and move ahead.

JIM LEHRER: One of the things, Mark, that has been said many, many time, that George W. Bush got beaten badly in New Hampshire and the ultimate test is could he bounce back and fight back and win in South Carolina, and he did.

MARK SHIELDS: That's right. He did. Short time.

JIM LEHRER: Now same thing has happened with John McCain and the test of these two men comes something beyond a lot of things.

MARK SHIELDS: It really does. Did he personalize it perhaps too much? But let me tell you one thing, and I think Paul would agree with me, there is no interest in Washington who is at all nervous about any reform authored by Al Gore or George W. Bush. They're pretenders. They're both posers on the issue. John McCain's the real thing. What did john McCain do? He disturbed a group like the national right to life group. They went on with an issue saying John McCain was soft -- a man with a 17-year pro-life record. What was he soft on? He voted for fetal tissue research for Parkinson's disease. What was the vote in the Senate? 93-4. 93-4. I mean, you've got Strom Thurmond, all the conservatives voting with the big majority, and john McCain. But they is a, no, this disqualifies him to be president. They're doing the bidding, Jim. And it's really a pretty large question. The question is going to l sit at the table in Washington when decisions are made.

JIM LEHRER: What about my testing question? There's all kinds of wisdom, some of it is conventional and some of it isn't, that McCain's concession speech on Saturday night is his hot stuff today shows that he's not handling defeat very well. Is that... Do you agree with that?

MARK SHIELDS: Well, you can certainly say that he's an angry candidate now. And I thought yesterday was a serious mistake on his part going on Meet the Press. I think Tim Russert does a great show. He did not have an affirmative message, which he should have had coming out of South Carolina. Paul's right. These are the differences between us, this is what you ought to vote for me and not for the other fellow. He went on and let somebody else set the agenda, that was the news all day yesterday.

PAUL GIGOT: In defense of McCain, it can take you a while when you're delivered a body blow, than was a body blow. Nobody expected it to be that big. He was successful with his turnout on independents and Democrats.

JIM LEHRER: He did what he said he had to do.

PAUL GIGOT: But Bush was even more successful. It took George w. Bush that whole first week... That was a Tuesday defeat in New Hampshire. He was flailing on Wednesday, flailing on...

MARK SHIELDS: You're right. He had the time to go home.

JIM LEHRER: You're right. He went home to Austin.

PAUL GIGOT: Came back, regrouped on the weekend and comb out with a much miles an hour coherent strategy, that is what in the end worked for him. McCain, knocked off their game. I don't think he responded well. I think he responded way too personally on Saturday night. Now they're struggling a bit. There's no question about it. The problem he has is this thing is coming right at them. If they can somehow eke it out in Michigan, then they may be able to fight back and right this yet.

MARK SHIELDS: One small mistake he made, the veteran's thing. Jim, if the veterans didn't vote for Bob Dole against Bill Clinton in 1996, and they didn't, they weren't going to come out as a single group. John McCain is tired. He's been a longer working candidate than George Bush. And the bus thing going all day with press people there talking to him, I think he was a more tired candidate by Saturday than he was at any point in New Hampshire.

JIM LEHRER: Okay. Thank you both very much. We'll see what happens.

UPDATE - WINDS OF CHANGE

JIM LEHRER: Finally tonight, Iran elects a new parliament. Margaret Warner has that story.

MARGARET WARNER: The ballots are still being counted from Friday's elections in Iran, but preliminary results show reform candidates on their way to winning a majority in parliament. As of today, with about two- thirds of the votes tallied, the Associated Press reports Reform candidates have won 137 of parliament's 290 seats; conservatives, who have controlled parliament until now, have won just 44. Independents have ten seats so far, while winners have yet to be determined for the other 99. Turnout was heavy. More than 80% of Iran's 38 million eligible voters cast ballots. Many were young. Iran permits voting at age 16, and more than half the country's population is under 25. The election had been billed as a showdown between reformists who want social and political change, and conservative hard- liners who support strict Islamic rule. Today, the conservatives' best-known candidate, former President Rafsanjani, was reported to be struggling to win a seat. The reformist candidates had allied themselves with the course set by President Mohammed Khatami, who was elected in 1997. Khatami's supporters think their parliamentary gains will speed the pace of reform.

MOHAMMED ALI ABTAHI: (Translated): I think the results are clear and definite that the reformists are going to win, so I don't think anything else is going to happen. This project was done with the election of President Khatami, and when the parliament and government have the same goal and direction, reform can take place faster and sooner.

MARGARET WARNER: The president's efforts to expand individual freedoms and reduce the clergy's power in government have put him at odds with Iran's Islamic rulers, especially the Guardian Council led by Ayatollah Ali Khameni. Khameni succeeded the Ayatollah Khomeini, who ruled Iran after the 1979 Revolution that ousted the Shah. During the campaign, conservatives called for stricter adherence to the roots of that Islamic revolution.

DR. HASSAN CHAFOURYFARD: We have a special way of life, a special class of thinking, a very important ideology which is a religious ideology, which we have been sacrificing for the last 20 years and which we have done so much to make sure that it is implemented in the country.

MARGARET WARNER: The Guardian Council also vetoed hundreds of parliamentary candidates for being too liberal or insufficiently Islamist. Despite losing parliament, the conservatives retain power. The Guardian Council can veto legislative bills, and the Ayatollah Khameni controls the judiciary, army, and state-run radio and television. Final election results won't be known for several days. The new parliament convenes later this spring.

MARGARET WARNER: We get three views of the election results from Mohammad Mahallati, Iran's ambassador to the United Nations before leaving the Diplomatic Service in 1989. He's now a fellow at Harvard and at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Shaul Bakhash was a journalist in Iran, and is now a history professor at George Mason University. He's written widely about Iran; and Daniel Pipes, editor of the "Middle East quarterly" and director of the Middle East Forum, a nonprofit consulting and research organization. Welcome gentlemen.

Professor Bakhash, how do you explain the apparent size of this victory? If these margins hold it, it will be 3-1 for the reformers?

SHAUL BAKHASH, George Mason University: Indeed. It shows the Iranian people voted extensively for greater political freedom and social freedom. They want the rule of law, and they want an accountable government. Secondly, I think this was a rejection of individuals who are associated with the conservative rule of the past 20 years and who did not make the transition to reform. And as pointed out in the preview, former President Rafsanjani, who was considered the second most powerful man in Iran, may not get into parliament at all. And thirdly, I think the voters signaled their displeasure with those organizations like the Council of Guardians, like the judiciary and like the intelligence agencies who have been involved in suppressing freedom, arresting dissidents and closing down newspapers.

MARGARET WARNER: So Ambassador Mahallati, are they rejecting Islamic rule or only the way it's been practiced recently?

MOHAMMAD MAHALLATI, Former Iranian Diplomat: I think they oppose the strict interpretation of Islamic rule, while not rejecting Islamic rule at large. I think there are four elements, which contribute to the landslide victory for the reformists. One is that we are dealing with totally a new generation, considering that Iran is the youngest country in the world, more than 50% of the population have been born after the revolution in the last 20 years, and they want to come in to real politics. It reminds me somehow of the slogan of change which helped President Clinton coming into the office. Now the new generation wants change. The second factor has been the media factor. Media, articulate, open media has educated people to a great level, creating transparency and also showing people that there are no political infallibles, namely that they can attack, criticize all, you know, the current political leaders. And third is that Khatami showed in practice that change...

MARGARET WARNER: The president?

MOHAMMAD MAHALLATI: The President, Khatami showed that change can be achieved through constitutional means and by constitutional means.

MARGARET WARNER: All right, Daniel Pipes, who are these reformers who have been elected? Where have they been?

DANIEL PIPES, Middle East Quarterly: Well, the reformers are to a large extent people who have become disillusioned with the radicalism of the Islamic revolution. If you can remember back 20 years ago, this was a fervent event. This was anti-American, anti-establishment, anti-everything -- and 20 years later, a little bit hungry, a little bit wiser, they're coming around to realize their radical ideas didn't work. And many of the leaders today interestingly were leaders back 20 years ago, then radicals now much more moderate.

MARGARET WARNER: Do you agree with Ambassador Mahallati, though, that the environment that already is existing in Iran in terms of a freer press or this new president in a way helped set the stage for this?

DANIEL PIPES: Well, to the extent that the Iranian government allows election to take place, yes. But otherwise, one finds very great reluctance among the Iranian leadership to allow the people to have freedom. And what the Iranian people are saying is, "we want freedom. We want the rule of law. We want to have the ability to go learn about things from outside. We want to be less Muslim in all aspects of our life." It's effectively rebellion against the status quo, a rebellion against the Islamic revolution, not a changing of it. It's saying no, as much as people can, they're saying, no, we don't like this. We want something else.

MARGARET WARNER: So Professor Bakhash, how are the clerics likely to respond? Are they just going the lie down and let this happen?

SHAUL BAKHASH: In fact, part of the leadership of this reform movement comes from within the clerical community. A new generation, as Ambassador Mahallati said, of reformers. Iran, after all, is now... now has some of the most exciting politics in the countries of Middle East. There will be, I think, be a resistance, but after the election results we have seen this week, it seems to me very difficult for the conservatives to stop this engine of reform.

MARGARET WARNER: So you don't see any prospect that they do control the army, that there would be any kind of use of force to resist this?

SHAUL BAKHASH: I don't think there will be the use of force. And over the last two years, we have seen the conservatives bring their arsenal on the table. They killed dissidents. They attacked student dormitories. They closed newspapers. They arrested critics. None of it has worked. And the reform movement just keeps going.

MARGARET WARNER: So Mr. Ambassador, what is... the reformers have quite an ambitious agenda, as we've discussed -- rule of law, greater press freedom. Are they going to be able to deliver?

MOHAMMAD MAHALLATI: Indeed. They have been indeed been able to deliver already. Look at the extent of the change in a number of ministries, ministry of Islamic culture and guidance -- minister of intelligence. Already they have gone through a major overhaul. And in other institutions, non-related to the executive body also, we have seen changes. For example, consider judicial body. That is very much in favor of judicial development, as they call it.

MARGARET WARNER: But do you think they're going to be able to really pass legislation to change, not just taking personnel, but actually changing the way -- the relationship, for instance, between the civil government and civil society and the clerics who right now have this sort of superstructure over everything else?

MOHAMMAD MAHALLATI: Not only because of the majority that they have gained, they will be able to bring about a change from within the legislative body, but also we should consider the fact that in the past, and the present, lots of clerics have shown tremendous ability for adaptation, for going into metamorphosis. The president we know today is not the same person as ten years ago. The supreme leader today is not the same person. They have adapted themselves through changes and events. So my expectation is that we will have a new parliament which will be very forceful in seeking civil liberties and economic development. And then we will see that the magic of dismissal will...

MARGARET WARNER: The magic of what?

MOHAMMAD MAHALLATI: The magic of dismissal will bring a change overall in the conservative body. What part of the body of the democrats today have been formerly the left party. And they have dismissed in the last eight years. That's what I call the magic of dismissal. They have pushed them for further education, and they have brought about the change in their view.

MARGARET WARNER: Daniel Pipes, what is your expectation in terms of real change?

DANIEL PIPES: I'm afraid I'm more pessimistic, Margaret, than the ambassador. For me the ultimate levers of power remain in the hands of the hard-liners, the spiritual leader, the supreme guide and his people. They still control the armed forces, the police, the intelligence, the judiciary, the electronic media, the economic mainstays, the brown shirts, the thugs. Finally, it's they who make the decision. What we see here is a grand protest movement. It's a protest movement that has huge implications for the future of Iran. It is a statement by if Iranian people saying, "no, we reject the Islamic republic." But in the short term, they don't have much of a say. They can protest, but they can't control. The control remains in the hands of the hard-liners. The foreign policy that we're concerned about as Americans is going to stay in place. So long term this is great news. Short term it doesn't really make much difference.

MARGARET WARNER: Where do you come down on this question?

SHAUL BAKHASH: Margaret, the conservatives control the radio and television, but it had no effect on the election results at all. It was the reformist newspapers that set public opinion. I think the reformers will move to guarantee greater freedom of press and political organization. They will insist on depolitization of the judiciary. They will try to impose parliamentary oversight over the intelligence agencies. They will try to make the big para-state organizations that control hundreds of nationalized and expropriated enterprises accountable to the governments. So it may be a difficult agenda, but I think it's there on the table.

MARGARET WARNER: And how do you feel... Do you agree with Daniel Pipes that we won't see much changes in foreign affairs, for instance, the relationship with the United States?

SHAUL BAKHASH: I think the reformers do want a better relationship with the U.S., But their focus at the moment is on the domestic agenda. Besides an improvement of relations between Iran and the U.S. will require a change in attitude not only in Iran, but on the part of the U.S., as well.

MARGARET WARNER: Briefly, Mr. Ambassador, what are your expectations in terms of the relationships with the United States?

MOHAMMAD MAHALLATI: The foreign minister on record has said, even before the election, that the election will have an implication for foreign policy. I believe that looking at the low Sudan gangs of many of the winners, they have said that, look, the question of normalization of relations between Iran and the United States is no more the domain or the decision of the government, but it's the people's decision.

MARGARET WARNER: What about the Professor's Bakhash's point that that's not the priority right now?

MOHAMMAD MAHALLATI: Well, I think the priority for a good part of the parliament will be economic progress. And they know for a fact that without strong relations with international financial institutions it's not much doable. And that means that there are certain bearings in terms of U.S.-Iran relationship.

MARGARET WARNER: So Daniel Pipe, who do you think there won't be much change between the U.S. and Iran in the short or medium term?

DANIEL PIPES: Let's look at the three main concerns of the United States government that have been on the table for years. It is the Iranian building of weapons of mass destruction, the Iranians support for terrorism, and the Iranian opposition of the peace process between the Arabs and Israel. None of these are in debate. The reformers are not telling the hard liners, hey, we don't like what you're doing, change it. Nothing. So I look at this and say there's no reason to expect any change.

MARGARET WARNER: What about the ambassador's point that if to improve the economy Iran will need better relations with the West, and therefore even if it's driven through a back door... I'm mixing my metaphors, but in any event, there will be pressure on that front?

DANIEL PIPES: Pressure to improve the economy, sure -- pressure to take care of the three points I mentioned - the weapons, the terrorism and the peace process, that doesn't seem to be in the cards. Nobody's talking about it. So long term again, this is great news. Short term, it has for us as Americans very few implications.

MARGARET WARNER: All right. Well, thank you very much all three of you.

RECAP

JIM LEHRER: Again, the other major stories of this Monday: The Republican presidential candidates were hard at it again, ahead of primaries in Arizona and Michigan tomorrow. And NATO troops broke up violent demonstrations in an ethnically divided city in Kosovo. We'll see you online and again here tomorrow evening. I'm Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.