The MacNeil/Lehrer Report; Papal Election

JIM LEHRER: This is a rendering of the ombrellone, the special seal issued by the Vatican for only one purpose: to mark the fact that the throne of St. Peter`s is empty. Tomorrow the centuries-old process of electing a new Pope -- of filling that vacant throne -- formally begins. And tonight we look at that process, the traditions behind it, and the real-world issues that the new Pope will face.

Good evening. There`s very little in our world -- particularly in our 200- year-old American world -- that even remotely compares with what`s about to happen in the Vatican`s Sistine Chapel. The selection of a new Pope has its roots in the Roman Empire; it`s done according to a rule book that has changed little since the year 1059. Just that fact alone is enough to make the event intriguing and awesome. Few procedures followed by anyone today are 900 years old. But there`s very much of a "today" quality to it all as well. The new Pope is going to have his hands full, with theological, moral and political issues that confront and divide his diverse church, the world`s 700 million-plus Catholics. And it`s the past, present and future elements of the total story about a conclave in Rome to elect a new Pope that we want to consider tonight. Robert MacNeil is off; Charlayne Hunter- Gault is in New York. Charlayne?

CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: Jim, there are 111 cardinals voting in the papal election, and all but eleven are voting for the first time. It was Pope Paul who drastically increased the size of the College of Cardinals, particularly from the third world. With fifty-one nations represented, this is the largest group of papal electors in the recent history of the Church. Paul`s death on August sixth brought them immediately to Rome. Since then they`ve been holding meetings and preparing for the conclave.

Over the centuries, cardinals have gone to great lengths to maintain the tradition of Rome as the center of the Church. Even today, no matter where in the world the cardinals come from, they each maintain a base at a specific church in Rome. That way no matter who is elected, the Pope of the Roman Catholic Church is still technically elected by the clergy of Rome.

LEHRER: The Sistine Chapel is where it all takes place. It was commissioned in 1473, completed forty-one years later to be used as a house of worship, but also as a fortress against enemy attack. It has three foot-thick walls, narrow entrances and battlements. Now it is used exclusively for papal ceremonies, number one being the College of Cardinals` conclave to select new Popes. Its walls are filled with the work of Renaissance artists, including Michelangelo`s ceiling and his "Last Judgment" painting behind the altar. Both are considered to be among the most famous works of art in the world. Michelangelo spent four years just painting the ceiling with its more than 300 figures. The Sistine Chapel`s magnificent art is often cited as the prime example of how the history of art is intertwined with the history of the Church.

But papal selection also has some European politics in its history as well. European kings who were Catholic once had veto power over the cardinals` choice for Pope. This prerogative was finally scuttled by Pope Pius X after the Austrian emperor turned thumbs down to a College of

Cardinals` first choice in 1903.

The custom of putting the cardinals behind locked doors for their deliberations began in 1216. It was done to appease members of the public who got tired of waiting for the cardinals to make their minds. The theory was that lock-and-key seclusion would speed things up.

Shown here before the start of the 1963 conclave, the cardinals sit in rows under canopied chairs. They attend a mass at St. Peter`s before the actual voting gets under way, and the topic of the sermon they hear is always a summary of the late Pope`s achievements and of the problems facing his successor.

HUNTER-GAULT: Security at this conclave is tighter than any other time in history. The electronics experts will be locked in the chapel to make sure that the deliberations are not bugged. Aides will not even be allowed to go in with the cardinals. There are dozens of guards, barbers, doctors, cooks, confessors, even an architect, and other support staff who will live with the cardinals in a sealed off area in the Vatican, and they must swear oaths of secrecy.

To be elected Pope a candidate must get a two-thirds-plus-one plurality. The cardinals vote twice in the morning and twice in the afternoon. After each round of voting the ballots are burned. The smoke given off allows people like these, waiting during the 1963 conclave, to follow the cardinals` progress. Black smoke means an unsuccessful round of voting. Damp straw is burned along with the ballots to get that result. Partly because on at least one other occasion the smoke-came out gray and caused a false alarm, chemicals will be added to the damp straw to make sure it comes out black.

At the moment a successful round of voting is completed, the ballots alone are burned. That produces white smoke, the message to the waiting world that a new Pope has just been elected. If no white smoke has appeared after three days, the sessions are suspended for a day while the cardinals pray over and discuss the problems. The twice-a-day voting then resumes and the three-day pattern repeats, again until clouds of white smoke appear over the Vatican.

LEHRER: So it`s a very different kind of election from most others, but in one way it`s not. Speculation on who`s going to win follows the same routine as any other good political horse race. Yesterday a Rome newspaper published a secret Italian government memorandum which professed to predict the outcome.

The favorites have not always won, however, and one popular Vatican saying is: "He who goes into the conclave a Pope comes out a cardinal." With that in mind, a look at the so-called front runners going into tomorrow`s vote.

Sebastiano Cardinal Baggio, sixty-five years old, worked in the Vatican diplomatic corps for many years, mostly in Latin America, now in charge of screening bishop candidates.

Paolo Cardinal Bertoli, seventy, known as a man of strict principle when it comes to the Church and its doctrine.

Sergio Cardinal Pignedoli -- he`s sixty-eight, was a close friend and associate of Pope Paul, has traveled extensively around the world. Eduardo Cardinal Pironio, fifty-seven years old -- he`s from Argentina but of Italian immigrant parents. He is known as a theologian and as being sympathetic with social activists in the Church.

Finally, Johannes Cardinal Willebrand, sixty-eight, a Dutchman, and thus the only pure non-Italian in the top five. He is the leader of the Church of Holland but also has held many top jobs at the Vatican.

For what it`s worth -- and it may not be worth a thing -- the smart money right now is on either Baggio or Bertoli.

HUNTER-GAULT: The absence of a clear favorite is fueling speculation that this conclave may not be a short one. The process has ranged from one day to three years, and has sometimes led to riots, kidnapping, death from illness, and even murder. To break a six-month deadlock in 1740, Cardinal Lambertini jokingly said to his fellow electors, "We ought to make an end now. If you want a saint, elect Cardinal Gotti; if you want a statesman, elect Cardinal Aldrovandi; but if you are ready to be satisfied with an honest fellow, here I am." He was elected on the next ballot.

Pope Paul mandated a series of procedures in 1975 aimed at breaking deadlocks, but in each instance the cardinals themselves will have to agree to change the rules.

LEHRER: The new Pope, no matter who it turns out to be, has his work cut out for him. He will be the ruler of the largest international organization there is, an organization with people to please, things to do, interests to meet on the ground in literally every corner, nook and cranny in the world. And they`re people, things and interests that vary widely and often conflict head-on. The question is how the Pope -- any Pope -can hold and appeal to the Church`s many constituencies.

A prime example of that is the Church and its role in the Communist bloc nations of Eastern Europe. Pope John initiated openings toward the East in the 1960s, but only in Hungary and in Poland, where this Church procession was filmed, does the Church have any degree of freedom. Charismatic leaders such as Poland`s Cardinal Wyszinski have, with Vatican support, formed what amount to almost counter-governments there. But in other Communist nations there has been little or no progress.

Father Timothy S. Healy, a Jesuit priest and President of Georgetown University here in Washington, has closely followed Vatican international policies, particularly as they relate to Eastern Europe. Father Healy, what special problems does Catholicism in Eastern Europe present for the new Pope?

Fr. TIMOTHY HEALY, S.J.: I think exactly the same range of problems it presented to Paul VI -- first, survival; and then secondly, some effort to function normally; and ultimately, freedom. But the principal thrust of Paul`s opening towards the East was to assure the survival of the Church. I don`t think within the next papacy, within the next man`s term, there will be that much of a significant change. I think there was an evolution in the 1950s, when it was perfectly clear that the West would not or could not move against the Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, the Church began to say one had best begin talking to what looks like a longterm leadership.

LEHRER: Of course there`s criticism within the Church of that decision, is there not, on the basis of accommodation and learning to live with the Communists? What is the basic argument against doing what the Catholic Church is doing in Eastern Europe?

HEALY: The basic argument is a fear, I think, of compromise -- that the Church will give away too much in order to subsist. I think initially there is the way that stands of great strength and resistance had history yanked out from under them, and Cardinal Medzinty`s being a hero and suddenly being a block to the direction in which the Vatican wanted to move. But time changes, and the Church adapts to the reality as it finds -- that it finds on the ground, and I think the move by Paul -- John XXIII just barely got it started -- the real movement has been under Paul VI and principally through the succession of embassies with Archbishop Casaroli.

LEHRER: What effect on the ground, to use your term, does the Catholic Church have in countries like Poland and Hungary?

HEALY: Well, in Poland a very significant effect. Poland was the only one of the non-Soviet countries where Catholicism was a very clear majority religion; I mean, most of the Polish people were Catholic, still are.

So that there you`re dealing with one kind of situation, the same kind of situation you used to deal with in the Ukraine, which was the part of Soviet Russia which was deeply and fully Catholic. There, I think, the fact of the way the Polish government treats the Roman Catholic Church is a clear indication that whether the government likes it or not it`s a significant force on the landscape. And in Poland the Church is allowed to exist, has a certain amount of freedom of action; has a certain amount of harassment, but nowhere near what it has in Hungary or in Czechoslovakia.

LEHRER: So in a word, you don`t expect any of this thrust toward the East to change under a new Pope, no matter who it is.

HEALY: Oh, I should think not. I should think it really does enjoy a wide Church understanding. There was a very hopeful moment around the Dubcek regime, before the Russians slammed the hood on, when it looked as though considerably more than just the survival of the Church was going to be at stake, when there were very real exchanges between Communist and Christian thinkers. For the moment that has ceased; the Church will continue to push for it to begin again. But I don`t see -a new Pope saying, No, let us go back to the days where I stand in St. Peter`s and scream at whoever is standing in Red Square and the Kremlin`s screaming back at me -- I don`t think that`s going to happen again. A t least, I hope not.

LEHRER: All right, thank you, Father. Charlayne?

HUNTER-GAULT: The demographics of the Church have changed substantially since Pope Paul`s election in 1963. Then, half the world`s Catholics lived in Europe and North America. By the year 2,000 it is estimated that over seventy percent of all Catholics will live in developing nations. The Catholic Church in Africa has been able to adapt to local customs as a result of the Vatican II reforms of Pope John XXIII. Not only have the reforms led to a Church membership of more than 50 million Africans, a 111 percent increase, it has also produced cardinals from black Africa who are participating in this conclave. Pope Paul also demonstrated his concern for other third world people who had been Catholics for centuries. In Latin and South America ninety percent of the population is Catholic, but only about one out of twenty Catholics regularly attend Church. Pope Paul traveled to Colombia in 1968 and received an enthusiastic welcome. He urged the clergy there to intervene on the side of the poor and underprivileged, but the Church`s role as a social force is now under severe internal review, and it`s expected to be hotly debated at an October meeting of South and Latin American bishops in Mexico.

As religion editor of Time magazine, Richard Ostling has been following the changes in the Catho is Church throughout the world. Mr. Ostling, what do you think the Latin American Catholics want from the new Pope and, by extension, from the Church?

RICHARD OSTLING: Well, I think first Latin Americans want strong leadership. And I might say this is true of Africa, since you mentioned Africa as well. The reason is that the Catholics are under tremendous political pressure in many nations as they seek to bring about social justice, and they need a Pope who is strong. It is greatly to the advantage of the Church in the third world to have a Pope who has moral authority and to have a man that they can look to in Rome to stand behind them in the political pressures. It`s much different from what we face in the United States.

HUNTER-GAULT: Debating these social concerns: what`s likely to come out of the conference in Pueblo, Mexico?

OSTLING: Well, that`s very difficult to say. Very often we will look at Latin America and think of it as a unit, but it`s quite evident even now that there are very strong wings in the Church. You don`t have a unified vision; there are some very conservative cardinals who will be participating in the election of the Pope and some very courageous liberal, socialaction types. And all of these men will be at the Pueblo meeting, I believe -- or most of them...

HUNTER-GAULT: You mean the liberals and the...

OSTLING: And the conservatives, and perhaps even some people to the left and to the right of the cardinals who we know a little better. And it`s very unpredictable what will come out, whether it will be a continuation of the 1968 meeting, which was quite dramatic, quite interested in political action, or whether there will be an effort to sort of put the lid on, to feel that things have moved too far in that direction.

HUNTER-GAULT: Right. What special concerns will the twelve African cardinals be bringing to the conclave?

OSTLING: Well, the word "survival" was used in Eastern Europe, and in certain African nations that is right at the top of the agenda. But despite that the African bishops have just completed a conference in Nairobi very similar to the one that the Latin Americans will be holding, and they issued a very strong statement against political oppression in the African dictatorial regimes; they did not name names, which would have been foolhardy, but it was an expression, I think, of strength and maturity on their part. And again, they look to the Pope to encourage them in that effort.

HUNTER-GAULT: Just briefly, what kind of clout do they have to ensure a hearing in the Vatican?

OSTLING: Well, I think they have a growing clout, if only because of the tremendous growth in membership, which you mentioned. When you`re talking about 50 million people, you`re talking about a group that can no longer be ignored, and indeed has not been.

HUNTER-GAULT: Fine; we`ll come back. Jim?

LEHRER: A whole set of different problems exists for the new Pope in dealing with the so-called developed world of the West, meaning Western Europe and here in the United States and North America. Here the problems are apathy -- declining interest in the Church, drops in membership and attendance -- and nasty splits over social policy -- birth control, abortion, the celibate priesthood, the role of women, among others.

Father Healy, what kind of special pressure does the Catholic Church of the West, particularly here in the United States, put on the new Pope?

HEALY: Well, you know one of the things that the Western Church -the first world, Europe and America -- is going to have to get used to is the fact that the Church has been internationalized in a way that is going to change some of the odds.

LEHRER: Just those statistics that Charlayne and Mr. Ostling...

HEALY: Well, those statistics -- and by the way, those are really sort of the working facts. I can remember well three conclaves. The first one that elected John XXIII, the betting and all the discussion in the press was who were the good guys and who were the bad guys within the Roman Curia, who wears white hats and who wears black hats over their red ones. When it came time to pick Paul VI the question was raised whether it will be an Italian or a non-Italian, and non-Italian meant German, Frenchman, Spaniard, even possibly a North American.

LEHRER: Close by, in other words.

HEALY: Close by. In other words, non-Italian but still within spitting distance of the Roman Empire, if you could spit fairly long. Now we are really seriously discussing whether or not the next Pope could be an Asian or an African. And I think part of the clout, to use the expression that Mr. Ostling used to well on the African cardinals, is the pride that the rest of the Church is going to take in their presence. For the first time since the seventh century Africa is there in strength, in panoply; it`s a thing in being. And you know, the West isn`t used to this yet. We really secretly sort of think that it clearly is going to be a Northern European, well, because it rather always has been.

LEHRER: You know, the American cardinals are the second largest national bloc at the conclave, and yet there is no speculation about an American possibly being elected Pope. Why is that?

HEALY: There may be lots of reasons. I really think the first one is going to be very unsatisfying because it`s not particularly jazzy, it`s just...

LEHRER: Try me.

HEALY: Okay. There are two ways in which 111 men can elect one. You either do it by sensible political analysis or by casting lots. Now, since one can`t imaging the cardinals down on their knees slinging bones along the floor of the Sistine Chapel, we`re going to do it by reasonable political analysis; and that means that cardinals who either from Rome have dealt with lots of other cardinals or in the diplomatic service on their home ground have dealt with lots of other cardinals are going to have a clear advantage. They`re known, they`re understood, their positions are staked out. The Americans, probably, to most of the Europeans are pretty mysterious.

Then there`s a second thing. America is the great world power present within the conclave, since there are very few Russians or Chinese, and an American Pope might at this time for the world be a statement that the Church would not choose to make.

LEHRER: Mr. Ostling, anything you want to add to that?

OSTLING: Well, I may say something dangerous; I would also judge that only Cardinals Krogh and Dearden have the leadership ability that would be required of a Pope, and Cardinal Dearden has been ill. So that gives us a relatively small field to choose from. I think language ability has tended to isolate. Americans as well.

LEHRER: All right. Let me ask you, Mr. Ostling, this question about the special pressures that the Western Church, particularly here in the United States and particularly the so-called "issues of conscience": abortion, the celibate priesthood and all of that -- what kind of special problems do they present for the Pope, and how is he likely, no matter who he is, to have to deal with those?

OSTLING: Well, that`s a big agenda. I think you have to separate out issues. Taking abortion, I would not look for any change in a new Pope; the Catholic position is well settled and has been, and there`s no room for movement -- and perhaps ought not to be, from the Catholic point of view. On the other hand, the married priesthood is considered a matter of discipline rather than a matter of overweening doctrine. For instance, we have some churches in communion with the Holy See in Rome that have married priests, some Uniate communions; so there is a little leeway here. There`s of course an Eastern Orthodox tradition as well that is fairly close to the Roman Catholic. So this is something that a new Pope could change, and if the manpower crisis gets too much worse in some countries it may b e right at the top of the new Pope`s agenda.

LEHRER: The manpower problem referred to being the scarcity of priests. I noticed that in France only 100 new priests were ordained last year.

OSTLING: Yes.

LEHRER: Do you see that as a problem, Father?

HEALY: I do in France.

LEHRER: But not anywhere else?

HEALY: What is actually happening in the third world is, as the clergy declines in the northern tier it grows in the southern. But let me add one to Mr. Ostling`s comment on the married clergy, that it is a recent discipline, it`s thirteenth century, if I`m not mistaken, the imposition of it generally throughout the Western Church. And secondly, it corresponds to mores and customs of Northern Europe. I think in Africa it is considerably less intelligible and I know at least one African bishop who in the senate of bishops has urged with great strength that the married clergy simply does not work in the social milieu, at least of his African nation.

LEHRER: All right. Charlayne?

HUNTER-GAULT: Mr. Ostling, let me ask you: this growing activism, particularly even the latest problems in Nicaragua in which priests have been involved -- how is that going to affect how the new Pope does business?

OSTLING: Well, that`s hard to predict. I would expect that the new Pope would continue very much along the lines of Pope Paul in staking out what certainly -- let`s say by comparison with Pius` papacy -- is a liberal policy. Not dramatically so, but there`s no doubt that he feels strongly that social justice is an integral part of everything that the Church -is about.

HUNTER-GAULT: All right, thank you. Father Healy, the Catholic Church has survived longer than any other institution. Can it survive now with its tradition and accommodate all of these new interests?

HEALY: I have kind of bet a lifetime that it can. My answer is yes. It`s not, however, at the end of this Pope`s reign going to be that much recognizable in a lot of ways. (Laughing.)

HUNTER-GAULT: All right; thank you, Father.

LEHRER: And on that, Father, we have to leave it; thank you. Thank you, Mr. Ostling. Good night, Charlayne.

HUNTER-GAULT: Good night, Jim.

LEHRER: We`ll see you tomorrow night. I`m Jim Lehrer. Thank you and good night.